From the WSJ:
A forecasting gauge of home sales unexpectedly increased during December, a realtors’ group said.
The National Association of Realtors’ index for pending sales of previously owned homes increased 6.3% to 87.7 from 82.5 in November, the industry group said Tuesday.
Private analysts projected pending sales would fall 0.5% during December.
…
Lower prices elevated the index for pending sales, the NAR said. “The monthly gain in pending home sales, spurred by buyers responding to lower home prices and mortgage interest rates, more than offset an index decline in the previous month,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. “The biggest gains were in areas with the biggest improvements in affordability.”
…
By region, the Northeast decreased 1.7% in December from November; it had gone down 14.5% since December 2007.
From MarketWatch:
Pending home sales rise 6.3% in December
The number of new sales contracts on existing homes jumped a seasonally adjusted 6.3% in December as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates and falling prices, a real estate trade group said Tuesday.
The pending home sales index rose 6.3% in December and is now up 2.1% compared with a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said.
The increase points to a healthy gain in existing-home sales in January and February. The index is based on signed sales contracts, which usually occur a month or two before the sale is closed, when sales are reported in the NAR’s existing home sales report.
Pending sales surged in the Midwest and South, offsetting small declines in the Northeast and West.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Pending Home Resales Rise as Prices, Rates Drop
More Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in December for the first time in four months, signaling slumping prices may be boosting demand.
The index of pending home resales climbed 6.3 percent to 87.7, the first increase since August, from a revised 82.5 in November, the National Association of Realtors said in a report today in Washington. Pending sales rose in two of four regions.
Record foreclosures are pushing down home values, making homes more affordable for those buyers able to get financing. Still, restrictive lending rules and further price declines are likely to scare away the majority of purchasers, indicating the real-estate recession will persist for a fourth year in 2009.
“Lower prices probably have attracted some buyers,” said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who projected an increase. Still, “the rise may be difficult to sustain.”
…
The report showed pending resales jumped 13 percent in both the South and Midwest regions. Signed purchase contracts declined 3.7 percent in the West and 1.7 percent in the Northeast.“The biggest gains were in areas with the biggest improvements in affordability,” Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. The NAR’s affordability index reached a record high in December.
First, finally
It’s different here.
third!
From MarketWatch:
Vacancy rate for owned homes rises to record high 2.9%
The vacancy rate for homes typically occupied by the owner rose to 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2008 from 2.8%, matching the all-time high set a year ago, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Prior to the housing bubble bursting in 2005, the vacancy rate had never been above 2%. For rental properties, the vacancy rate rose to 10.1% from 9.9%. The homeownership rate fell to 67.5%, the lowest since 2001. In the fourth quarter, 2.2 million homes were vacant and for sale, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. The nation’s housing stock increased by 2.2 million in 2008 to 130.8 million.
Calculated Risk has got a nice graph of the Homeownership Rate.
“Calculated Risk has got a nice graph of the Homeownership Rate.”
Tells me that we are going back to 1995.
grim #5
I commented on that about month ago…
http://maldream.blogspot.com/2009/01/home-ownership-rates.html
I included a little more detail
“People are not saving; they are building financial bomb shelters”
Article
Rise in savings hurting economy
Economists say hard times will persist as Americans continue to avoid spending, credit.
Martin Crutsinger / Associated Press
WASHINGTON — Americans are hunkering down and saving more. For a recession-battered economy, it couldn’t be happening at a worse time.
Economists call it the “paradox of thrift.” What’s good for individuals — spending less, saving more — is bad for the economy when everyone does it.
On Friday, the government reported Americans’ savings rate, as a percentage of after-tax incomes, rose to 2.9 percent in the last three months of 2008. That’s up sharply from 1.2 percent in the third quarter and less than 1 percent a year ago. Like a teeter-totter, when the savings rate rises, spending falls. The latter accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity. When consumers refuse to spend, companies cut back, layoffs rise, people pinch pennies even more and the recession deepens.
Many economists think the savings rate will keep rising, perhaps as high as 6 percent or more.
Analysts believe the hard times will persist in 2009 as consumers, squeezed by layoffs and tighter credit, delay purchases of cars and other big-ticket items.
Some experts say consumers have been so shaken that they might not resume their robust spending for years, if ever.
“People are not saving; they are building financial bomb shelters,” said Mark Stevens, who runs a management consulting firm, MSCO, in Rye Brook, N.Y.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090202/BIZ/902020336/1020
BC,
we will overshoot on the way down and be lucky not to hit 1983.
(northeast data)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SWGfyFmfx5I/AAAAAAAAA38/A6mu4YOI9mw/s1600-h/Northeast+Home+Ownership+Rates.PNG
Economists say hard times will persist as Americans continue to avoid spending, credit.
……….
That’s right, it is not the fault of the banks and the gubbmint that got us in this mess. It is the people of the USA not spending enough that is causing and prolonging this crisis.
It’s this attitude that drives me to save even more and not to buy a house.
“Obama nominee withdraws due to tax woes”
“Picked for chief performance officer, she failed to pay household help taxes”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28994296
“we will overshoot on the way down”
kettle,
I agree. 1995 was only the first target. It may bounce off that and/or consolidate before heading lower.
here is another fun little chart
Sales price v rent
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SWGq4MqkHVI/AAAAAAAAA40/knTgm0rUkW4/s1600-h/Sales+%26+rent.PNG
we could see a 25% drop in rental rates…..
Hold on tight stu
A stunning figure, almost 20 million homes vacant across the US. How can this not put considerable downward pressure on prices?
From Bloomberg:
Record 19 Million U.S. Homes Stood Vacant at End of 2008
A record 19 million U.S. houses stood empty at the end of 2008 as banks seized homes faster than they could sell them and prices continued to fall.
The fourth quarter’s all-time high was 6.7 percent above a year ago when 17.8 million properties were vacant, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. The vacancy rate, the share of empty homes for sale, rose to 2.9 percent in the last quarter, the most in data that goes back to 1956.
The worst U.S. housing slump since the Great Depression is deepening as foreclosures drain value from neighboring homes and make it more likely owners will walk away from properties worth less than their mortgages. About a third of owners whose home values drop 20 percent or more below their loan principal will “hand the keys back to the bank,” said Norm Miller, director of real estate programs for the School of Business Administration at the University of San Diego.
“When you’re underwater and prices continue to fall, you tend to walk,” Miller said in an interview. “It’s a downward spiral that’s tough to stop because it feeds on itself. Foreclosures encourage other foreclosures and falling prices discourage buying.”
There were 2.22 million new foreclosures in 2008, an average of 6,090 a day, according to Washington-based Hope Now Alliance. Those resulted in 917,000 property sales, according to the group that represents 27 mortgage lenders and servicers.
U.S. banks owned $11.5 billion of homes they seized from delinquent borrowers at the end of the third quarter, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in Washington. That’s up from $5.4 billion a year ago.
“declined … 1.7 percent in the Northeast.”
C’mon! WHAT are you RE agents doing? Lets get the market back on its feet already.
Shore,
Maybe sue can help
The math for 19 million vacant homes and 2.9% can’t be right. How many homes are there in the US?
Sales will pick up when prices fall further.
Between Killefer, Daschel, Geithner, Rangal, the bailout of the bankers and people who went too far into debt, yadda, yadda, I am beginning to feel like a first-class chump. And, beyond actually paying the taxes we owe, Mrs. Shore and I actually give away many times more of our income than so many of the folks whose tax returns have been made public as part of the nomination process.
Stupid, stupid, stupid.
BC/12-
I’m making the call for 1965/1966 levels. With the momentum starting to pick up on Option Arms resets, we could see another wave of foreclosures. Then, lending tightens even further. Vacant homes get rented, not bought. We’ll probably see it stablize in 3-5 years.
Look at this chart of home ownership in the west
West: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SWGf5IG-aWI/AAAAAAAAA4E/xQghbyJCQIU/s1600-h/West+Home+Ownership+Rates.PNG
The west US is currently around 63% home ownership and will probably drop to about 58%.
They still have a ways to fall and they already have tent cities springing up. How long before they start to raze entire neighborhoods?
I was watching the history channel couple of days ago and there was this period sometime in 400AD which was the Period of ‘Dark Ages’.
Maybe the modern version of ‘Dark Ages’ has started now. If true, sucks to be born during this time..
… Obama’s cabinet rejects are bringing to light the nannygate generation. Bush had to deal with this too (Homeland Security nom). If you ever hope to have a career in White House politics, you have to find a nanny willing to be paid on the books (maybe 10% of them by my approximation). One more reason we may go back to one working parent households. There are plenty of nannies out there, just not a lot who want taxes withheld.
Rock Chalk [21],
“1966”
Hank Bauer, Frank Robinson, Boog Powell, etc.. In the AL, the Yankees were in last place with the Soucks just .5 game in front of them. YIKES.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28917999/
“Man’s deram of sex” ????????? What the heck form of english is THAT?????
Man’s dreams of sex? A woman’s nightmare
Women experience more bad dreams than men, researcher finds.
By Staff
updated 4:29 p.m. ET, Thurs., Jan. 29, 2009
Women have more nightmares than men, a British researcher says, but men are more likely to dream about sex.
Psychologist Jennie Parker of the University of the West of England asked 100 women and 93 men between the ages of 18 and 25 to fill out dream diaries, priming participants before dreams occurred to record them. The research was part of her doctoral dissertation.
“My most significant finding is that women in general do experience more nightmares than men,” she said. “An early study into dreams led to my discovering that normative research procedures into dream research often considered the structure of dreams, but that there is a gaping hole in terms of academic study that investigates emotional significance in the analysis of dreams.”
snip
“we could see a 25% drop in rental rates…..
Hold on tight stu”
I already have formulated my counter attack with a little help from a friend…I hope it works.
While rental rates may be falling everywhere, we continue to see renting in NJ towns of Short Hills, Millburn, Summit, Chatham and Madison. Maplewood and south Orange have seen some declines but less than nationally. Those of you who want to wait for more rental rate price drops are kidding yourselves. Landlords are renting out houses at the right pricing levels and you people need to be renters. Work with a good landlord who can get you into that apartment today. There is no better value than New Jersey rental real estate along the train lines!
Stu 27
I am intrigued by your ideas and would like to subscribe to your news letter!
I expect the next MSNBC headline to be:
“Man’s dream of housing prices dropping to realistic levels. Woman’s dreams of men’s overpaying.”
Who says education needs fixing in this nation?
Stu,
Is that a message “brought to you by the Montclair Landlord Association?”
“Women experience more bad dreams than men, researcher finds.”
Perhaps that stems from being paid less for equal work?
Oh wait, that only happens in Obama’s workplace.
Kettle1 (28): LOL
Do any of these people pay taxes?
“Nancy Killefer, President Obama’s choice to serve as the new “chief performance officer” for the federal government, will step down after revelations that she failed to pay employment taxes for her household help.”
I thought it is patriotic ot pay high taxes?
I am way to busy today so I’ll check in later tonight. Toodles!
And to the rest of the world I simply say Baaaaaah, baaaaaaah!
This is interesting article.
http://www.boingboing.net/2009/02/01/life-at-walmart.html
Writer for the Wired magazine took an entry level job at Wal-Mart and blogs about that (and compares his experiences with that Barbara Ehrenreich fabrications and union-sponsored anti-walmart websites).
Sounds quite a nice environment. Even the lowest-level employees can see the profit margins for every product and can make decisions based on that.
With all of the layoffs, does anyone have any contingency plans in case the next pink slip is yours?
“With all of the layoffs, does anyone have any contingency plans in case the next pink slip is yours?”
I plan on getting a job with the US Govt. After a few years, I’ll quit, and then start making the big bucks lobbying, and not paying my taxes.
Although I bet I can probably stop paying taxes as soon as I get my job with the Govt.
Hobokenite (38) –
You need to stop paying taxes to APPLY for a government job :).
“With all of the layoffs, does anyone have any contingency plans in case the next pink slip is yours?”
Yes, I sold in 9/2005.
Victorian,
Yes, I think you’re right. You only need to pay taxes if you’re trying to get elected to office. For all other govt. jobs, taxes seems to be optional.
Video of Retired Cornel Klink speaking about 4 minutes, seems like he is blaming Realtors and other people on commission?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2009/02/02/VI2009020201372.html
from Bloomberg:
U.S. Pending Home Resales Rise as Prices, Rates Drop (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiy2is1cJwJY&refer=home
re: #37 – Busy stocking up on guns, ammo, and alcohol? How about you?
cram down?
“For individuals who bought houses on mortgage lending before Oct. 27, 2008 and have not paid off the loans, their credit interest rates could be reduced to 70 percent of the benchmark rate from the previous 85 percent…”
http://world.soufun.com/english/news/2327647.htm
Sean-
Probably would involve moving money around so that my wife would feel secure. I’m more worried about getting a new job because nobody is hiring.
OT (sort of)
MIL just told me that friend of hers (retired from IT but now working at Lord&Taylor – maybe for benefits? who knows..) just got “demoted” from juniors dept [making $11/hr] to shoe dept [at 7.50/hr.]
Appears she had a confrontation with a dissatisfied customer (due to scarcity of salesfolks and hence long wait) and told said customer to “F.uck Off.”
I had good chuckle over that one…. suggested she go to Home Depot instead, probably make a bit more per hr and no issues with a potty mouth there.
Trust me on that, I worked there once ;)
sl
sean (42)-
The first thing Klink should do is apologize. He presided over the development and implementation of all the fianancial shenanigans that got us to this point.
Klink then aided and abetted the biggest bank robbery in US history.
Apology? Damn right. Then, he should be tried and jailed for the rest of his life. Or, executed.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp is seeking to more than triple its credit line with the U.S. Treasury Department to $100 billion, a move to give it more financial power to handle U.S. bank failures, the agency said on Monday.
The FDIC and Congress are working to boost the agency’s current $30 billion borrowing power in legislation being crafted by U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
The move comes as the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund has shrunk due to a significant uptick in bank failures over the past year. The insurance fund’s value dropped 24 percent in the 2008 third quarter to $34.6 billion…
“They have no immediate need for it, but they just want to make sure they’re not constrained in the decision by a lack of the insurance fund,” Frank told reporters after meeting Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Monday. “They don’t want to say, ‘We have to keep this bank open longer than it should because we don’t have enough money.’”
If the FDIC borrows funds through the Treasury Department, it would pay back the money through a special assessment on the banking industry.
#47 –
At the risk of sounding like Frank, how bad can this recession really be if folks in retail aren’t getting fired for cussing at the customer?
I mean, aren’t there a thousand people lined up for those jobs who won’t curse out the clientele?
Ellen (50)-
Lord & Taylor? They probably don’t have the energy to bother. That company is dead man walking.
Regarding whether or not sales prices are holding up in our prestigious Midtown Direct train lines, I think the numbers, while showing declines are still skewed.
In 2005 and 2006 every POS sold for an inflated price. In 2008, most of the sales were for the shiny pennies that always commanded a sales premium….the POS homes don’t show a decline because they just didn’t sell. Helps to keep the overall average and median prices up.
#51 Clotpoll
I suppose you’re right.
Rut-ro. Jail could be an interesting experience for this guy:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/nation/6244091.html
Is there any way to easily find how many foreclosed home are still with bank and not in MLS for particular town?
Grim, regarding the inventory and vacant or distressed homes…I don’t get it either. It makes me feel like a tsunami is brewing. also, wasn’t there a link here the other day stating from realty trac that 70% of foreclosed homes are not in the MLS because they don’t want to take the write off the loss right now
So how do you price a home for sale in C. NJ now?
– Use local comps disregarding foreclosure, short sale, any other type of distress sale…
– Take peak 05/06 price and knock off %20
– Take price from 00 and add %3 per year
????????????
daschle throws in the towel,, finally
I never inhaled.
http://www.aleablog.com/fed-capitulates-extend-all-existing-liquidity-programs-and-swaps/
Fed capitulates and extends all lending including swaps.
I don’t know if this was posted on earlier thread:
For wealthier Americans, the free-fall in stocks is not only ravaging their portfolios—it’s taking a huge bite out of the value of their homes.
“The high-end market relies on equities,” says Walter Molony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors. “If stocks are doing well, so too does high-end housing.”
Though only 2 percent of the overall housing market, high-end home sales have seen a dramatic drop, according to Molony. Homes valued at $750,000 or more plunged a whopping 47 percent in the year ended in November. By comparison, homes valued at $400,000 or less fell by only 3 percent during the same period.
snip
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28977233
“daschle throws in the towel,, finally”
and this was the most rigorous vetting process in history..about 50% of who passed the vetting, turned out to be tax-cheats. I don’t even want to think who failed this “vetting”..
Tim Geithner should resign!
Daschel did the right thing. I wonder if B.O. will keep him on for the WH job, which is the more powerful of the two posts he was going to fill.
“Tim Geithner should resign!”
That would presuppose a degree of honor.
Make [60]
“This extension currently applies to the swap lines between the Federal Reserve and each of the following central banks”
Swaps, my #ss. The only reason they are termed swaps is to eliminate the requirement to go back to Barney and beg. The fed resorts to criminal activity, yet nobody says boo.
Currency swaps may be for a short period of time, 3/6 months. I would like to know how timely European banks have been regarding reverse swaps. Sounds like another deep, dark, black hole. In other words, Tarp #2.
Honor,, shamless POS”s would never,
its gone ,,
I was talking to a very educated small government leberal who asked me what I thought of Bin Laden.
So I gave him the whole murderer and fanatic cave man speach.
He turned and said that he thinks that history will judge him different. He went on to say that it took him 20 yrs to bankrupt and bring the soviets to his knees.
One man from a cave defeated a superpower.
What if he defeats us? It’s only been 8 years since Sept 11 and he is winning and on a clear path to victory.
One man defeats 2 empires. Two superpowers.
I was baffled. Any thoughts?
“we could see a 25% drop in rental rates…..
Concessions in NYC has brought rents in some areas down 10-15% in NYC. Before it is all over with the glut of inventory and loss of jobs, I think we get more than 25% rent declines in certain areas. More or less depends on if you are considered a “prime area”. Recently gentrified areas may take greater than 25% haircuts. Area like Montclair will probably be on lower end of scale. People say there isn’t a glut of building in NYC, but that is a shadow number. Too many luxury multi-BR properties. Many of these will fail to sell, than fail to rent and than will be carved up into smaller spaces. This market has become top heavy. In the adjacent blocks to my building there are three luxury development, that probably won’t be completed until 2010. Good timing. Hopefully the banks don’t pull the plug on the project. A developer I know was offered 25% of the remaining condos on a project that was so far unsold. The bank was calling in the loan. The project developer was unloading at 50% of recently sold, but not yet closed prices. They were told to keep it on the DL, so they don’t lose their buyers. We already knew it, but this market is toast. Band is packing up and last song already has been played. Punch drunk beer gogglers are only ones left.
Currency swaps may be for a short period of time, 3/6 months. I would like to know how timely European banks have been regarding reverse swaps. Sounds like another deep, dark, black hole. In other words, Tarp #2.
I hear you.
I thought the same think and I’m praying for another big dip in Ms. Shiny.
make (68)-
Sounds about right to me. Oce you know someone’s weakness, you can exploit it over and over without paying a penny to do so.
“Economists call it the “paradox of thrift.” What’s good for individuals — spending less, saving more — is bad for the economy when everyone does it.”
Well oh geez, now you tell me. Dagnabbit! Make up my mind.
Make if anything just like communist Russian we will destory ourseleves from within, the cave man did nothing but startle the sheep before they went back to their errant ways.
funny thing is that all of these nominees act like it is something that happened to them rather than something they did (i.e., not pay taxes). All of them had issues going on for more than 1 yr and had ample time to correct the problem if it was indeed an innocent mistake. I did not think to much of it at first but by the third time I think it is starting to reveal an overall attitude of this group of people. Taxes for thee but not for me.
“daschle throws in the towel,, finally”
Did he ask for a refund of the $140k, back taxes, that he recently paid?
Just because you are willing to blow yourself up doesn’t mean you’re a genius
skep (76)-
But it is a sign of genius that you can convince someone else to blow himself up for your cause.
[74] skep
From another blog entry about Daschle, this is becoming “the audacity of dopes.”
BC (75)-
Why doesn’t he get to share a jail cell with a 6’9″ weight-lifting homosexual rapist?
Fed has No accountability, Rep Grayson.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxuqmPyKqcs
home ownership cannot fall on a macro basis. who cares if bottom 50% rent and the top 50% own a primary home and a rental property, either way someone owns the homes. the concept of a chicken in every pot and everyone should own their owns homes is pie in the sky stuff.
Stu,
Why do you hate Lew Rockwell? He has a great blog.
“But it is a sign of genius that you can convince someone else to blow himself up for your cause.”
or maybe it just means you’re the only reasonably intelligent person in a band of dummies.
Clot[79],
I would settle for him and Hammerin Hank.
You cannot loot much of the public money via Health Care, Treas Sec – now that’s a whole different league.
#2 – That appears to be the case.
Regional breakdown from Ritholtz:
Northeast PHSI fell 14.5% below a year ago
Midwest index was 1.2% below December 2007.
South surged was 1.6% above a year ago.
West index jumped a huge 17.5% above December 2007 levels.
Make (68):
I clearly remember one of Bin’s early speeches after 9-11 when he claimed he would bankrupt the US. I don’t think he is responsible for it at all, but is just doing an ‘I told you so.’
We have a government that is run by corporations through the use of lobbyists. The greediest and most profitable sectors have the largest and best funded interest groups. Is it no surprise that we don’t have nationalized health insurance or that a firm like GS can knowingly issue CDOs and then short the so called assets that they claimed were triple AAA a few moments prior. And then they are rewarded for this behavior. Unless Bin Laden sits on the board of an IB, I doubt he can claim responsibility for the destruction of our economy.
Re: He went on to say that it took him 20 yrs to bankrupt and bring the soviets to his knees.
wow is he slow, those ruskie hos over in brighton beach can be brought to their knees in less than ten seconds for 20 bucks.
“But it is a sign of genius that you can convince someone else to blow himself up for your cause.”
I have a friend who’s Palestinian. He’s one of the greatest guys I know. He says that the people that blow themselves up don’t give a damn about Jihad. They do it for their families. These are guys that have no food or job and cannot feed their wives or kids. Their family gets a bunch of money to live on if they blow themselves up. The way they see it, it’s the only way they can take care of their family.
GM to offer buyouts to all hourly employees
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090203/ap_on_bi_ge/general_motors_buyouts
Sue Adler says:
February 3, 2009 at 9:21 am
While house prices may be falling elsewhere, we continue to see strong pricing in NJ towns of Short Hills, Millburn, Summit, Chatham and Madison. Maplewood and south Orange have seen some declines but less than nationally. Those of you who want to wait for more price drops are kidding yourselves. Realtors are pricing houses right and you people need to be buyers. Work with a good realtor who can get you a loan and get that house today. There is no better value than New Jersey real estate along the train lines!
Frank’s sister?
@18 danzud,
I’m getting some weird numbers on the Bloomberg article too 19 million vacant homes with 2.9% vacancy rate.
A 2.9% vacancy rate would put the number of homes in the US at 650 million. (approx.)
Since there are only about 300 million Americans according to the 2008 census estimates this creates a problem. There are two homes to every one American.
Time for some of us to retrain into bulldozer operations?
HeHeHe:
He is deceptive. Of the few posts I have read, he leaves out extremely relevant info with the intent of getting the reader riled up. This is dangerous. I know another guy who was very good at this. He had a tiny little mustache and almost convinced the world that a certain group of humans who believed in a different religion were somehow at fault for everyone’s woes. That is why I hate him. And trust me, I’m more libertarian than I am Republican or Democrat.
On a personal note, my wife just received a company issued email saying that they are cutting profit sharing and free lunches. 401k contribution in tact. Selective layoffs are possible. She works for an asset manager on the ops side. They had there assets under management decline 50%. However the company is still highly profitable because they have fairly lean operations. Just on a conservative side looking at a 0.50% management fee, they generate about $1mm in revenue per employee. I know the company may have suffered as their assets have declined 50%, but most of it was not from withdrawals. I can understand removing free lunches, but taking profit sharing was a little much. The company used to chip in 3% for eligible employees. Higher compensated employees like analysts and portfolio managers probably got a separate slice of the pie. This was only paid when the firm made a profit. So why take it away? At estimated $1mm revenues per employee they EASILY have gross margins of 25%. My opinion is the owners of the company are being a bit greedy.
skep (83)-
Place a giant short vs reinsurers, then fly planes into the two most famous buildings on the planet.
I’d say he’s a little more than first among equal morons.
Clotpoll says:
February 3, 2009 at 9:54 am
Wag (80)-
It’s doubly-ironic to hear “you people” coming from an agent who works in a company known for its cult-like use of God, family and American values (like spending your ass off) to rope in the impressionable.
K-W also uses all the tools of multi-level marketing to promise riches to these dopes and keep them on the farm.
K-W? The worst. dealt with them recently. unprofessional realtor (i’ll leave their name and gender out of this) and it was so bad, that our realtor thought about reporting the KW realtor.
seems like a nice person, but just absolutely clueless about that industry.
didn’t even show up at the walk through the morning of our closing. to make up for it, said realtor hired a cleaning company to give the place a lick and a promise.
make money @ 1:15 — “I was talking to a very educated small government leberal who asked me what I thought of Bin Laden. … He turned and said that he thinks that history will judge him different. He went on to say that it took him 20 yrs to bankrupt and bring the soviets to his knees.”
Clearly “education” does not equate to intelligence, or even basic knowledge.
He should default on any outstanding student loans, if any.
hardplace is that a public company?
No. Owners are billionaires.
Clotpoll says:
February 3, 2009 at 10:13 am
Trust me. The foo-foo towns and the 6-figure jobs are the ones getting whacked the hardest in NJ right now. Of the wave of people who contacted me 3-4 weeks ago, over half of them weren’t even candidates for short sale…they were so bad off, I referred them to BK attorneys who put them straight into Chapter 7. The cheapest primary residence amongst that crew was purchased for 700K in 2004.
The two BK families at the Super Bowl party I attended on Sunday had family incomes in excess of 200K.
i can’t comprehend this, Clot. I got a buddy who, along with his wife, makes about 200k. they are somehow about 48k in CC debt!
he gave me a quick run-through on their budget and it’s absurd. they do have things like season tickets to an NFL team which eat at the funds … but still, 40k is absurd!
cindy – harry dent is indeed, a clown.
http://www.amazon.com/Next-Great-Bubble-Boom-2005-2009/dp/0743222997
rick edelman trashed him on the radio this weekend. was pretty funny.
Dimon from JPMorgan says “It was you.”
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9647R0G1.htm
According to CR, home ownership at 67% is at 2000 level. 8yrs of gains (if you can call that a ‘gain) gone.
When every ‘bad’ news is at ‘record’ levels and ‘unprecedented’ now a cliche, this probably is not even a big headline.
On a separate note, a software consultant friend of mine who has been an employee of a company for 10+ yrs lost his job last week with 3months severnce.
Rentl0rd: Haven’t seen your posts lately. Hope things are fine.
“While house prices may be falling elsewhere, we continue to see strong pricing in NJ towns of Short Hills, Millburn, Summit, Chatham and Madison. Maplewood and south Orange have seen some declines but less than nationally. Those of you who want to wait for more price drops are kidding yourselves. Realtors are pricing houses right and you people need to be buyers. Work with a good realtor who can get you a loan and get that house today. There is no better value than New Jersey real estate along the train lines!”
Yeah, YOU PEOPLE, go out and buy. How dare you all collectively wait out the market and cause price declines! Haven’t you ever wanted to hear the sound of train moving past your house at 6 am? This is your last chance!
While rental rates may be falling everywhere, we continue to see renting in NJ towns of Short Hills, Millburn, Summit, Chatham and Madison. Maplewood and south Orange have seen some declines but less than nationally. Those of you who want to wait for more rental rate price drops are kidding yourselves.
if we had renewed, our rental was going up $200 a month. owner said he’s raisin it $300 on whoever the new people are.
that’s just one of the reasons we bought – our rental price was getting close to our anticipated (current) mortgage.
and then there’s the plan to have a baby and have the wife stay home – and not being sure if a guy with a relatively new small business (under 4 years) could qualify for a loan, even if we had profits to show. ok, ok, i sound like im defending our decision, and i promised myself i wouldn’t do that …
Yikes [106],
Just enjoy.
Now, get going to Home Depot, isn’t there work to be done around the house?
“If banks are lending, who’s not?” Dimon asked. He told the audience to raise their hands if they pulled any money out of a money market fund or bond fund last year and put it in something safer.
Several hands went up.
“It was you,” he said.
Jamie,
I took 90+% of my USD and bought Shiny. So it’s my fault. Fcuk You.
200k for a dual income family with kids is not that much money. daycare, two sets of commutation expenses, lots of take out, drycleaning, two sets of FICA payments etc. 200K for a Dad with a stay at home wife going 48K in debt is a shopoholic.
BTW people went crazy in debt last time, my unemployed friend from GS I asked why doesn’t she take in roomates, rent her garage or get a part time job to help pay the mortgage after her severance runs out. She said the mortgage is a few thousand a month and without a 200K+ job what is the point. It might keep me there a few more months at best. Better stratgy is not to work at all and keep looking for the 200K job, cause there is a slim chance she might land one but trying to bring in an extra few hundred a month is a losing situation.
“I took 90+% of my USD and bought Shiny. So it’s my fault. Fcuk You.”
Make,
Just lost my soda.
what the hell is with all this day care nonsense? My cousins and I always got dropped off at the grandparents’ house for free.
ben-111- that would be nice..but they’ve selfishly moved to florida!
Hey SG… it’s depressing as is.
On the brighter side I was extremely busy… and not as much now. If I’m blogging its probably not a good sign
If banks only lend 20% of the total credit required, why the fcuk are we bailing them out?
make (108)-
Fcuk Dimon. His “bank” is just the tallest midget.
Hey, Jamie: how ’bout those 89 trillion in derivatives? Your guys even netted out the exposure on that crap yet?
Clot [115],
They are still trying to dig up the contra parties.
Hey, ChiFi-
Our idiot pals in Tewksbury have listed for the third time: 1.149mm.
I think we can officially classify them as “slow learners”. Perhaps the listing agent is the bigger retard, though.
“but they’ve selfishly moved to florida”
Ungrateful Boomers.
BC (116)-
They don’t have enough shovels in the ground.
“ungrateful boomers”
….lol..definitely not ungrateful. A wishful for the help maybe. We save all year so that we can spend our vacation fund on visiting with the grandparents.
BAC rapidly approaching C prices. How big is BAC?
120– ‘a little wishfull”
243,075 employees. I suppose, they are too big to fail as well?
make/BC Bob,
Currency swaps may be for a short period of time, 3/6 months. I would like to know how timely European banks have been regarding reverse swaps. Sounds like another deep, dark, black hole. In other words, Tarp #2.
wanted to dig in a bit on your take on the effects of extending these swap measures? Is this purely another failed liquidity event to try to further grease the skids? Would love to hear your thoughts.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/02/california-cred.html
cali rating downgraded to worst state. It should br JUNK!!!
grim says:
February 3, 2009 at 10:01 am
Absolutely, under no circumstances, should ANYONE post a link to the website of a real estate agent.
There is absolutely NO WAY that any agency will get direct advertising here without ***ME*** being compensated for it.
This website is a f’ing huge gaping money-eating hole to me. This site loses me thousands of dollars a year in time (opportunity cost) and direct cash outlays.
grim: shut up….you are a lazy good for nothing realtor and slacker that moonlights as a coral sniffing, spandex-bike-pants wearing, kielbasa chomping, chest hair springing, showerless geek programmer…..go code something….
Shore Guy says:
February 3, 2009 at 10:54 am
Between Killefer, Daschel, Geithner, Rangal, the bailout of the bankers and people who went too far into debt, yadda, yadda, I am beginning to feel like a first-class chump. And, beyond actually paying the taxes we owe, Mrs. Shore and I actually give away many times more of our income than so many of the folks whose tax returns have been made public as part of the nomination process. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
shore: my wife is not really paying attention to politics right now. She asked what is the general public perception of how Obama is doing? The upshot I think is that other than the reflexive genuflectors, the perception is that he is being taken advantage by the embedded interests that have starved for 8 years and are cashing in their IOU’s. Today’s withdrawals are a start. It’s early, but I think he is fcuking up royally so far…..
grim: shut up….you are a lazy good for nothing realtor and slacker that moonlights as a coral sniffing, spandex-bike-pants wearing, kielbasa chomping, chest hair springing, showerless geek programmer…..go code something….
ChiFi,
you’re in a bad mood ha?
I think Gary should become a RE agent.
can you kind of already see in your head the SNL skit being written right now for this coming episode?
Barrack and Joe conducting tax vetting after tax vetting for apointments, all high powered and politically connected. The door is revolving, the line going out long. Message: everyone in Washington is a tax cheat.
Hard Place says:
February 3, 2009 at 1:46 pm
This was only paid when the firm made a profit. So why take it away? At estimated $1mm revenues per employee they EASILY have gross margins of 25%. My opinion is the owners of the company are being a bit greedy.
Hard: Maybe they are just keeping compensation competitive based on market conditions. If you overpay the workforce, then your competitors can underprice you. You have no maintain some level of competitive advantage on cost or you will be doomed in the long run.
More easily stated…you don’t like it? Quit and get another job. You can’t? Then they are justified.
I am ready for the onslaught of TARP money to bankers. Go ahead…
buckle up, NYC
http://seekingalpha.com/article/118007-housing-price-decline-you-ain-t-seen-nothing-yet?source=email
chicago it is that attitude that worsens a recession. Cutting because you can, is not right. When the health of your business is at stake by all means cut, but arbitrarily cutting people’s income because you can will only further exacerbate the situation. Reactionary behavior is what causes great problems. Or simply put, if it ain’t broke yet, don’t fix it.
funny you mention home depot, Clot. we just cashed out our amex points and got about $1500 in home depot gift cards.
not sure how far that’ll go; might even try to save a couple hundred for mulching the yard in spring.
Yikes,
I love Reggie, but he is completely out there. Questionable source, but enjoyable reading. Sort of like Lew Rockwell I guess.
HP [124],
Last month we had close to $600B currency swaps with world’s cb’s. Approx $500B with Europe. These are set up as temp reciprocal currency lines. It’s strictly another liquidity facility. European banks are imploding faster than ours. Yet, we are pumping reserves into the dead. Sound familiar? In addition to this, many of these banks are funding Iceland, latvia, Greece, Spain, etc.. It’s just another disquised TARP, soon to be north of $1T.
When Europe blows the doors away, how do they reciprocate? That’s the problem. Thank you US taxpayer.
Stu,
What part did he leave out? He seems to post a link to every article he comments on, sounds like you just hate Lew Rockwell.
HP [124],
My post, reagarding your question, is in moderation, #136. Maybe the ECB is watching?
grim hasn’t programmed in years. I know, I’ve asked him to program years ago but never got anything out of him. was too busy blogging about real estate. :)
New thread, move it up.
“A 2.9% vacancy rate would put the number of homes in the US at 650 million. (approx.)
Since there are only about 300 million Americans according to the 2008 census estimates this creates a problem.”
There is No PROBLEM. The extra houses? Owned by John and Cindy McCain
“grim: shut up….you are a lazy good for nothing realtor and slacker that moonlights as a coral sniffing, spandex-bike-pants wearing, kielbasa chomping, chest hair springing, showerless geek programmer…..go code something….”
Hey CHifi,
This is wrong, wrong, wrong. I don’t know how you can say such a thing. There is NO way Grim can sniff coral while snorkeling or diving.
Yikes,
Cheapo tip of the day. Buy a 20% off coupon on Ebay prior to making any supply purchases over $1,000. Then put it on your Home Depot Rewards card and save another 5%. If you do it right and wait for the correct sale at HD, you can buy your supplies for about 40% their standard prices with little to no effort. You can also get a 10% off coupon by going to the USPS website and tell them you moved. The welcome pack will contain this coupon as well as one from Lowes (or at least it did about a year ago). The ebay coupon should cost you no more than $20.
Maybe they are just keeping compensation competitive based on market conditions. If you overpay the workforce, then your competitors can underprice you. You have no maintain some level of competitive advantage on cost or you will be doomed in the long run.
More easily stated…you don’t like it? Quit and get another job. You can’t? Then they are justified.
chifi,
Sorry, but I agree with jcer. Profit sharing I think is a great way to keep all employees happy and to get great employees. True profit sharing, not bonuses. If the company is making money irregardless of what is going on around them? What is the use of cutting 3% of net income to your employees? This is after compensation for higher level salespeople, analysts and portfolio managers at my wife’s company. I did the quick math and these guys are still bringing in on a conservative basis $1mm revenue per employee with 25% gross margins. That is huge! I’m sure the owners of the company can still afford a bottle of Rothschild with dinner. They are billionaires and still make good money in this crappy environment.
#100
“I got a buddy who, along with his wife, makes about 200k. they are somehow about 48k in CC debt!”
Easy to comprehend– I see it all day. People who make low six figures were led to believe all their lives that when they made such money, they would be rich. Maybe they grew up in such a household when times were cheaper and being a doctor/lawyer really bought you a good life. Or maybe they never really had money but always thought things would be so easy if they just made X. Well, life got a whole lot more expensive in recent years and what used to be a comfortable living is not any longer. Despite this, people in these professions expect to have a certain standard of living and strive to have it even if they cannot afford it. It is as though they do not believe they are successful unless they have the stuff to prove it.
great topic to discuss.is the sales still pending?