From Bloomberg:
U.S. Housing Starts Fall 7.8% in March to 1.96 Million Rate
April 18 (Bloomberg) — Builders started work last month on the smallest number of new houses in a year, as rising mortgage rates and record inventories of unsold homes discouraged new projects.
Housing starts declined 7.8 percent in March to an annual rate of 1.96 million, from 2.126 million in February, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits, a sign of future construction, fell 5.5 percent to an annual rate of 2.059 million from 2.179 million.
Builders are breaking ground on fewer projects after new home sales declined in three of the last four months, falling in February by the most in nine years. Construction companies such as KB Home report fewer orders as increased borrowing costs and higher prices put new homes out of the reach of more Americans.
“It’s clear that the housing market is cooling,” Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, in Holland, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “There are areas of the country where we are going to see pretty sharp declines in construction and in housing prices.”
March PPI came in a bit higher than estimates at 0.5%..
Gas Prices Push Up Wholesale Inflation
A big jump in gasoline prices pushed inflation at the wholesale level up in March at the fastest pace in three months, as oil prices above $70 a barrel sent consumers a high-octane warning of expensive fuel costs ahead.
The Labor Department reported that wholesale prices rose by 0.5 percent in March following a 1.4 percent decline in February, which had been the largest drop in nearly three years.
The March increase was slightly worse than the 0.4 percent rise that Wall Street had been expecting and was driven by a 9.1 percent surge in gasoline prices, the biggest one-month gain since November 2004.
the worm is just starting to turn. another 9-12 months and the bloom will clearly be off the rose as inventory will be much higher with houses sitting for months (as opposed to weeks) with higher borrowing costs to boot. be very interesting to see where prices go. you would think down but one never knows.
richard: Oh they will be going down, and the Spring market in Bergen Co, appears to be a bust at this point. In my little zip code, there were 5 new houses that came on the market yesterday, and several price reductions.
This could get very ugly. We could return to the stagflation of the 70’s or have fed funds in the teens to break inflation.
Interesting that congress comes up with new bankrupcy laws after Ezy Al encourages people to take out ARMS even when 30 year rates are the lowest they had been since Eisenhower. Virtually everyone who listened is going to be in deep trouble if we go through the stagflation of the 70’s again.
Starts came down off of a record high. Big deal. What is a big deal is the record completions. We just posted the numbers for Q1. Check it out:
BubbleTrack.blogspot.com
Sorry for the long post – great article.
Real estate insiders go bearish in blogs
In mostly anonymous postings, agents are reporting big problems in the markets.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
April 18, 2006: 9:57 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) – If the secret worries of real estate professionals are any indication, home prices could be heading for a swoon.
When Brad Inman of Inman News, which tracks the real estate industry and is widely read by industry insiders, recently gave real estate agents the opportunity to blog about market conditions, they almost uniformly described them as bad – and getting worse.
“Normally, brokers and agents tend to sugarcoat the news; they don’t want to affect consumer confidence,” says Inman. “By letting them post anonymously, we gave them a way to really share their thoughts.”
Most responded with tales of high inventories, slow sales and languishing prices.
Here’s a sampling of their comments:
“Portland, Oregon is mixed . . . more inventory, sitting longer. . . . Sellers no longer king.” Posted by anonymous.
“Minneapolis/St.Paul . . . 15 houses per buyer. If we had buyers. Huge inventory in every price range. More foreclosure properties coming on daily.” Posted by anonymous.
“East Central Florida Coastal area inventories up four times year to year and sales down 75%.” Posted by Ramon Rivera (Not all bloggers craved anonymity).
“Some Realtors, Mortgage Brokers & some clients have been more testy than in months previous. Something is in the air.” Posted by S. Crowe.
“Northern Ca. Let’s not beat around the bush here. There is a slow down!! Home prices are not going up. Sales are down.” Posted by anonymous.
Inman grants that there could be an element of self-selection, with agents suffering a slowdown more inclined to vent. But usually, comments from posters tend to be very diverse, with no clear consensus. “This round of blogging,” he says, “has been conclusive; no one said the markets are great.”
Stat support
Statistical evidence of a housing slowdown appears almost daily. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau reported that March housing starts were down to their second lowest monthly pace in the past year.
So far prices have not suffered any notable decline – the median home price nationally in the fourth quarter was up 13.6 percent from 12 months earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Still, NAR chief economist, David Lereah, is on record predicting price appreciation will drop to the mid-single digits. And NAR has recorded an uptick in inventory, though not enough to be troubling.
NAR spokesman, Walter Molony, characterizes conditions today neither as a seller’s nor a buyer’s market. “Probably, balanced is a better word,” he says. “There has been a steady rise in inventory since last fall, but, broadly speaking, it’s still a little tight.”
Rates are going up
What argues against any big fallout is that, absent a serious economic crisis in which unemployment spikes or wages plummet, real estate markets generally do not fall very far or very fast.
But this time markets have to contend with rising mortgage rates – the average 30-year mortgage rate, at 6.49 percent, is now near a 4-year high, lowering home affordability.
That will have a bigger impact in hot markets, where many buyers would not have been able to afford their purchases without resorting to financing through low-downpayment, low-interest ARMs (30 percent of recent sales or more in some markets). As rates rise, some could face close to a doubling of monthly mortgage payments. And if their home value has fallen, they could wind up underwater, owing more than their house is worth.
How much potential for disaster there exists can be debated. According to Lereah, the next few years will feature a stable, more balanced, healthier market.
Even some of Inman’s bloggers are not totally bearish. One poster wrote, “Northern CA – oddly enough, higher priced inventory (luxury homes) still moving.”
Another one opined, “Wilmington, NC, market still active, except on barrier islands, where inventory of $300-500K condos over-supplied. . . . good to great condition, well-priced properties move quickly.”
Still, these shaky endorsements come nowhere near the unbridled optimism of a year or two ago.
As for Inman, he sums up his blog-induced sentiments rather succinctly. “It scares me,” he says.
i don’t see the market falling off the cliff for the following reason. adjustable loans almost always have annual cap rate increases, typically 2%. so if you have that 5/1 ARM you have a 5 year fixed interest rate and then after 5 years it can only go up a max of 2% per year until it hits some maximum. this gives buyers plenty of time to adjust their situation. now in the bubble areas it might be a bit different as speculators are looking for the lowest carrying costs but in towns like NNJ where families want to live it’s not like that.
NYC-area is for the moment immune.
Wall Street is firing on all cylinders. Absolutely breathtaking profitability on massive trading revenue. They are basically “toll takers” on the highway, and it is the height of rush hour.
This situation will not stay in place forever, but it is currently the case.
Bear this in mind as you review the regional data, and you might find more strength in it that would otherwise seem logical.
My opinion is that it will cause some people to make bigger mistakes, but I would already push out a few months thoughts of a sustained period of weakness.
We are already positioning ourselves for a strong bonus season in 2007, although we have many months to go.
chicago
This must be great news for realtors. Wonder how this most ethical profession will spin the news.
New Buzzwords…”Normalized”, “Slower appreciation”, “Buyers market”
Yeah Right!
Chicago,
Do you also think the working class towns like West Paterson, Little Falls, Clifton etc. are immune?
I understand that the high end communities on the midtown direct line will directly benefit from a strong Wall Street year; what about the true first time buyer who’s earning the median for the state?
Will Wall Street keep the entire region’s housing market going?
I disagree Chicago (and I normally agree with you). That may be true for NYC and Brooklyn, but where I grew up on LI (a well to do suburban town, popular with brokers) inventory is high and not moving at all. And that comes from a friend who’s an agent. It’s a completely dead market. As I am looking in Westchester, while I haven’t seen huge price drops, I have seen them, along with an increase in inventory and longer time on the market. So while Wall St. may do something for the NYC market, it’s not holding up the ‘burbs and I don’t think it will or can.
it’s hard to say how the wall street money will hold things up. the top buildings in NYC (trump tower) do quite well when bonus time hits. the top tier towns also get some business from these folks. question is what % of them drive the market? i’ve never seen a study done on this.
i always tell my wife we have one downside living in this area. we have to compete with wall street money to get into a nice town near NYC and you just aren’t going to win that situation. to top it off many wall streeters are into the ‘mine is bigger than yours’ so they need to keep up appearances even if their underlying finances are suspect.
Richard,
I was always under the impression that the initial reset cap was specified separately from the annual reset cap and could be different. For example, 3% upon initial reset, and 2% thereafter until a maximum is reached (if specified).
grim
Chicago,
I imagine Wall Street helps NYC and the burbs but I’ve been tracking inventories in a couple midtown direct line and these have increased significantly since last year. Summit has seen inventory increase from 57 homes on 12/28/05 to 87 as of today. Chatham has seen inventories increase from 60 to 115 in that same time period.
I don’t know how much of this increase is from seasonal factors and I would be interested if any realtors on here can expand upon that. I work on the Street and I really don’t want to pay $900K for a POS in Summit that is going to need work.
chicagofinance said…
Bear this in mind as you review the regional data, and you might find more strength in it that would otherwise seem logical.
Bubble-X, you probably could have conveyed that plug for your website in a less obnoxious way, no?
Inventory piling up. Lots and lots of For Sale By Owner signs – FSBO.
A friend just got a call from a realtor asking if he still was looking for a house. After I suggested he read this blog, he told the realtor not at these prices.
Buyers strike. demand lower prices or say NO THANKS.
Boooooyaaaaa!
Bob
Clayton, here’s the link to that great article:
Long link:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/real_estate/agents_bearish_in_blogs/
Short link:
http://tinyurl.com/pmqfa
Condo Market Has ‘Totally Collapsed’ In Naples
The Naples News has this report on another failed condo project. “In a sign of the times, the for-sale sign has come down at Intermezzo, a luxury waterfront community in Naples. The developer, Phil McCabe, has closed the sales center and temporarily suspended sales at the mid-rise condominium, saying he will wait for the market to improve before opening his arms to buyers again.”
“‘It was just my judgment that the market was too much in turmoil for me to proceed at this time,’ said McCabe. ‘It’s the market. The market has totally collapsed.’”
“He’s returned deposits worth about $40 million. That was for 20 units. ‘My goal was to get 50 units under reservation to go full-speed ahead, 100 miles an hour,’ McCabe said. ‘We obviously didn’t achieve that.’”
“In March and April, the Naples market continued to soften, and so did demand, McCabe said. ‘I am most concerned about the future,’ he said. ‘It’s a major real estate correction going on.’”
“Following a national trend, there has been a shift in the Naples market. Home sales have slowed, listings have grown and investor interest in buying real estate has waned. In February, existing single-family home sales in the Naples metro area dropped 47 percent from the same month a year ago.”
“McCabe considers the waterfront location superior, however. ‘It is not the case that there are buyers not wanting to buy there because of the location,’ he said. ‘It’s because there are simply no buyers period.’”
Ooooh it is starting to look like a more normal market. slower appreciation this year.
NOT!!!!!!!!
COLLAPSING PRICES. IT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME. WE NEVER HAD THESE KIND OF RISKY LOANS BEFORE THIS BUBBLE.
WE ARE IN UNCHARTERED TERRITORY AND NOONE REALLY KNOWS HOW BAD THESE LOANS ARE GOING TO CRASH AS RATES RISE AND LOANS ADJUST UPWARDS. lol!
Again with all this emphasi and misconceptions about Wall Street.
I have posted this before, but ill do it again. There are approximately 200K employed on the strret if you will.
That includes the lowest clerical jobs, all the way up, and everythibng in between.
The average Wall St bonus is 25K for the 40% tax haircut.
Many of the highly compensated already have homes that were purchased years ago.
Please NJ people need to get away from this menatality about Wall St.
Just read elsewhere that over-hyper Jim Cramer from CNBC was on Jay Leno last night and stated the housing market is in decline, and that he feels sorry for people who bought in recently.
That’s a big deal — bubble pop news hits the masses.
Anyone see the show?
question on lease breaking. do the courts enforce this heavily in NJ? how pain free (aside from losing your security deposit) is it typically?
i’m sure this is a relevant question for alot of renters who might see the right property they want to purchase but have an existing lease. thanks for all responses.
Delford,
Where did you get those numbers because I am not sure I agree with them. I pulled up the annual reports for Goldman, Lehman, Morgan Stanley and Bear and the average compensation & benefits for these firms for the last year were: $531K, $315K, $212K, and $300K, respectively. These four represented 110K employees. That is $34 billion of compensation and benefits (of course all these people arent’ employed in NYC).
That isn’t including all the other banks and brokers like JP Morgan, Banc of America, Citibank, CSFB, Jefferies, Merrill Lynch, etc and all the hedge funds. Based on the above figures, I would say that Wall Street is pretty relevant to the NYC market. I could be off base though so I am curious where you got your info.
Thanks,
DebtVulture
RE: lease breaking
Contact the landlord, tell them about the house hunt, and ask how much notice they would like.
Unless they’re a jerk, they’ll likely have no problem with a 60-day notice (or possibly a 30-day, if you’re lucky).
This is assuming the renter always submits the rent on time, doesn’t crank the stereo to annoy neighbors, etc.
thanks unrealtor. that’s the plan. i’ve talked to a few landlords who said they rarely if ever go after lease breakers as the time, cost and aggravation just isn’t worth it unless there are unique circumstances like they destroyed the place, etc.
“question on lease breaking. do the courts enforce this heavily in NJ? how pain free (aside from losing your security deposit) is it typically?”
you can be sued for the remaining months left on the lease; however, the landlord has a duty to use reasonable efforts to rent the place out after you leave. basically, you could be held liable for however long it takes the landlord to find a new tenant.
On skeptic’s point, to avert any legal issues, make sure if a landlord says “xx-days notice is fine” that they also put it in writing.
question on lease breaking. do the courts enforce this heavily in NJ? how pain free (aside from losing your security deposit) is it typically?
i’m sure this is a relevant question for alot of renters who might see the right property they want to purchase but have an existing lease. thanks for all responses.
In NJ, the landlord must offer you month-to-month if your lease has expired, or a new lease with whatever terms. This can actually go on forever, or it can be cut short by simply writing a letter giving the appropriate notice–the more the better.
If you are in a lease, then tak with your landlord. Technically, you are responsible for the term of your lease, but the landlord is also repsonisble for protecting himself by advertising the availability and showing the property.
Now for the reality check–there are a ton of rentals out there and the probability of your landlord finding a tenant is pretty low, unless you have on a the few Jersey rentals that are worth renting.
Good luck,
A. Landlord.
thanks for the replies. the lease is up in a month. i’ve been served with a new 1-year term lease. i’d like the option of moving when i find a new place. with that said the plan is to try for a month to month. if the landlord says no, a 60 or 90 day written out clause. if the landlord still says no, i’ll either sit and ignore re-signing (while continuing to pay my rent on time) or bite the bullet and sign the lease and break it when i want to.
so far in NJ i haven’t heard a single case of a tenant getting stuck with paying the remainder of a lease after breaking it.
Good article about Wall Street income. According to them the Top Tier (about 23000 folks) make more then $500,000K in yearly bonuses. I am sure many of these guys may be the buyers in NJ for the high end properties.
http://www.gothamgazette.com/article//20050128/5/1306
Wall Street related is 5% of the workforce in NYC, and earns roughly 25% of the gross income.
40% of people who commute into NYC [from elsewhere] to work are from NJ.
A friend of mine got stuck paying off the remainder of her lease when she bought her first house in 1996.
She probably didn’t fight it too hard, though, knowing her.
Only the verry top tier on Wall St are making the big, big bucks.
The day when goldman gave 25% bonuses to all its non revenue producing employees ended, when the firm went public.
There arw lots of very different positions on Wall St, if you work on the street you know. There are also many back office and other non revenue producing positions on the street,with many of those lcoate in Jersey City. Now many of these people do quite well, but the do not make the uber bonus’s that non Wall St’rs think they make.. As far as my numbers they come from SIA.
As far as the big hedge funds managers,and the big M&A guys, and star traders and salesmen Manhattan is where the majority of them live, with of course a place in the Hamptons.
There are select NJ towns where some the elite of Wall St will live, but far more live in Westchester and Conn.
Goldman built a new office building in Jersey City, where it planned to move all of its trading operations,the big boys said no way, we ain’t going, and now the building, which s the tallest in NJ sits almost empty. Morgan Stanley on the other hand moved its fixed income trading and sales to the old IBM campus in Westchester, and from what I have been told the majoirty of people affected were fine with that.
My wife is non-revenue producing and received a 50% of base bonus.
CF,
They hiring? :)
grim
Housing starts declined 7.8 percent in March
Yes, but the decline for the Northeast was under 1 percent.
Delford,
I hear ya…but let me say again..the average salary per employee for those four firms were 531K, $315K, $212K, and $300K. Sure, some get $5M plus but when you are talking about 100K employees you can only skew the avg # so much by the high end guys. With those avg salaries, it should be evident that the Street is a major contributor to the tri-state area’s GDP, as cf pointed out.
Also, a LOT of the fixed income people at MS stayed in the City.
Oh a separate note, I can’t believe the market reacted the way it did. If the Fed were to stop raising rates now, bubbles in commodities and real estate may just get bigger before popping. That can’t be a good thing.
“Housing starts declined 7.8 percent in March
Yes, but the decline for the Northeast was under 1 percent.”
Which makes sense, given the mass building on empty land that goes on down South, compared to the already-built-up Northeast.
Richard — if you get a judgement or an eviction notice entered against you, it could affect your credit if you seek to buy a house and want a mortgage. Low as the probability is, I think that may be more pain than its worth. Try and negotiate with your landlord.
On a reverse note, if your township has rent control and your landlord makes you pay more, I think that under case law, you can sue him for triple the difference + court costs under NJ’s Consumer Fraud Act.
>>Goldman built a new office building in Jersey City, where it planned to move all of its trading operations,the big boys said no way, we ain’t going, and now the building, which s the tallest in NJ sits almost empty
that’s untrue. i worked for a big boy (co-chairman of goldman sachs) for a year (9/11 related non-profit not banking). we drove down the henry hudson pkwy one day and he pointed out the building and said they were having problems for a while with environmental and other issues. he also said during mid-build they decided to go in another direction for $ reasons.
Richard:
Alper?
chicago, Bob Hurst.
Ricahrd: i do not mean to argue with you, but trust me, the building in JC is almost empty, they have 2 o3 follor filled with back office people.
The equirty asles and trading division, along with M&A were going to occupy a large portion of the building, they balked, as they did not like the location, not prestigious.
Gs received all sorts of abatements and perks from NJ, as they assumed it would ultimately bring lots of revenue into the state.
The firm is now building a new head quarters near the World Financial Center in NYC. They have also been attemoting to lease the JC building, to date they have have nto been successful.