The fix is simple, adjust the $500 minimum requirement (in 1964 dollars) for inflation, and ensure it adjusts for inflation every year going forward. $500 was a significant sum … in 1964 when the original law was passed. Had the original law adjusted for inflation, which it should have, the limit would be around $3,500 today. Since it didn’t, it is no longer a limit, it’s now a simple loophole. This new limit will have absolutely no impact on any real farmers.
From the Record:
‘Fake farmers’ get property tax break
Some New Jersey corporations, developers — and even a few politicians — get a tax break for growing as little as $500 worth of crops such as Christmas trees, using a law that critics say means higher property taxes for everyone else.
So-called “fake farmers” were faulted for taking advantage of a farmland tax break at a Senate Environment and Energy Committee hearing Thursday where lawmakers discussed doubling the minimum sales needed to qualify for the state’s farmland assessment.
“Time and again, we hear stories of this program being abused by owners of large, valuable residential properties to avoid paying their full property tax bill,” said Sen. Jennifer Beck, R-Monmouth.
…
The farmland assessment dates back to the 1960s, and was designed to help struggling farmers while also discouraging the development of open space in a state known for its high real estate prices.But opponents now see the tax break as outdated, and something many wealthy landowners are abusing to avoid paying their full property tax bills. The average property tax bill in New Jersey averaged a record-high $7,576 last year, but bills easily top $25,000 on larger properties.
Beck is sponsoring legislation that would double to $1,000 the minimum gross sales required to qualify for the farmland assessment, which sharply reduces how much property taxes are due on the part of a property that is used for agriculture.
The bill would also compel landowners who claim their property as farmland to submit clear evidence of agricultural sales or income to the state Division of Taxation. And local tax assessors would have to receive training on farmland assessments.
…
Jeff Tittel, executive director of the New Jersey Sierra Club, cited an example of a 5-acre lot — the minimum allowed to qualify for the assessment — with an expensive home that uses only a fraction of the property to cultivate enough Christmas trees to qualify for the tax break.
…
No votes were taken on Beck’s bill Thursday, and it may not make it out of the Legislature before the current lame duck session ends early next year. But Beck, who’s been pressing the issue since she took office in 2008, pledged to keep pushing.“It is time to close this ‘fake farmer’ loophole and ensure that only true farmers who produce substantial agricultural output be eligible for the program,” she said.
Interesting.
Good Morning New Jersey
PASADENA, Calif. (AP) — Several overturned semis on a Utah highway. Hundreds of thousands without power in California. A wind gust reaching 123-mph in Colorado.
The powerful winds that tore across Western states Thursday created a path destruction that closed schools, left neighborhoods with a snarl of downed trees and power lines, and prompted some communities to declare emergencies.
The storms, described as a once-in-a-decade event, were the result of a dramatic difference in pressure between a strong, high-pressure system and a cold, low-pressure system, meteorologists said. This funnels strong winds down mountain canyons and slopes.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not anti-agriculture. I’d be fine with shifting any of the savings that result from the higher limits into greater tax benefits for the remaining real farmers.
Our former govenor Christine Todd Whitman’s mansion fell under that rule. Think she was only paying something like $2500.00 in taxes on her 10 bedroom 2 built in pool barn.
Confused heard of those “Santa Ana wind” it is called I believe.
As most know I live in upper Sussex county , you would not believe the abuse of farmland assessment. In truth these are people with just a lot of land not mansions like Whitman but they do get away with murder so to speak.
There are plenty of offenders that don’t actually sell anything, just claim they do year after year. Easy way to spot the obvious ones? They’ll have a cord or two of wood out near the corner of their property with a can and a makeshift sign. Same stack of wood has been there years. “Woodland management” it’s called. Blueberry stand? Tomato stand? All the same.
Look, I’ve got no problem with amateur farming, but there is a difference between someone who does it because they enjoy it, and someone who does it because it’s their business/livelihood.
In 1964 a new house cost $20,500, average income was $6,000, gas was 30 cents, and a gallon of milk was less than a buck.
Kick it up to 5k & you would take out the posers.
Jill from prior post:
That is very kind of you. I am intrigued by the sofa and teak coffee table. My e-mail is
DavidK62@verizon.net
From the AP:
Financier Michael C. Price, with a net worth of $1.4 billion, Bedminster: 92 farm-assessed acres, on which he paid $359 in taxes in 2009.
– Robert Wood “Woody” Johnson IV, heir to Johnson & Johnson and owner of the New York Jets football team, Bedminster: 269 acres, $1,470 in 2009.
– Publishing magnate Donald E. Newhouse, with a net worth of $5.4 billion, Hopewell Township: 273 acres, $1,787 in taxes for 2010; in West Amwell, 77 acres, $611 in taxes in 2010.
– Publishing magnate Malcolm “Steve” Forbes, including properties with his wife, Sabina, Bedminster: 450 acres, $2,005 in taxes in 2009.
– E Street Band drummer Max Weinberg, Middletown: 34 acres, $122 in taxes in 2010.
– Rock star Jon Bon Jovi, Middletown: 7.1 acres, $104 in taxes in 2010.
Lamington Farm Club, under the corporate umbrella of entrepreneur and TV personality Donald Trump, Bedminster: 195 acres; $277.
– John Whitman, husband of former Gov. Christie Whitman, Tewksbury: 167 acres, $1,521; in Bedminster: 65 acres; $173.
– Vernon Hill II, former CEO of Commerce Bank, Moorestown: 29 acres, $79 in 2010.
Morpheus by the way congrats , however belatedly.
thanks for all your kind words on the purchase. Plumber comes in today to do repairs.
the home is masonary block construction which thermal scans (thanks das uber inspector) with minimal insulation if at all. I will be adding insulation to the attic this weekend. Thank god its gas heat.
We will see what it costs to heat the place. When gas prices start to rise again, i can put in a coal stove. All i need is a rec. on a guy with a dump truck who can go to PA and pick up 4-5 tons of bulk coal.
Gary…agree with u that it is the 5th inning. I am assuming that I will lose an additional 10 percent on this purchase….IF zillow is correct, then this will equate with a 46% drop from 2008…Dont even want to determine what it was in 2006.
funny…remember when a 30% drop was all we expected and now at least 40% is baked into the cake.
Oh…anyone have rec on vinal window replacements. windows are very, very old. Thinking of going with Window world…even cheap $189 windows would be a major improvement. anyone know about window world?
should be “thermal scans shows” damn i am tired.
Don’t those thermal scans kick @ss. Ours came back very positive so it showed we were well insulated with very few leaks whatsoever. Wouldn’t you know, our heating bills (gas), seem pretty low as compared to our insulationless multi-family. Thank god I don’t pay for the heat over there anymore.
So has anyone had a poor review for das uber inspector? That guy should donate to Grim fo sho!
For all the coffee aficonados here, you’re all slackers unless you’re doing this:
http://www.latimes.com/features/food/la-fo-home-coffee-roasting-20111201,0,3043471.story
Morph, my neighbors have a coal stove and a hopper in their backyard. they have it delivered so companies in Jersey still do it.
#18 NJCoast –
I started roasting my own coffee last year. It wasn’t something I would have thought of, but my local roaster who sold great medium roast coffees went out of biz. I really HATE over-roasted coffee – not just Charbucks, but most supposedly “premium” coffees are too dark for me. A friend gave me a low-end hot-air roaster (he was upgrading) and I was on my way. Between home-roasting and my Aeropress coffee maker, I have never had such amazing coffee in my life.
Normally I roast up single varieties. But I try lots of variations: blends (Kenya and Ethiopia are great together), mixes of lighter and darker roasts, and varying the roast time of the same variety to see what’s best.
There is some economy, in that the green beans sell for about half the cost of roasted beans. When I was using the gift roaster, I was saving money. But then I went out and bought a bigger one, so it’ll take a while to amortize that. (An Italian-American friend who’d grown up poor said “oh we never bought store coffee when I was a kid, my dad would always roast it in a cast-iron fry pan.” So it can be economical.)
Sure I sound like a “coffee snob”… but life’s too short to drink bad coffee.
UE is at 8.6%
In 1964 a new house cost $20,500, average income was $6,000.
So, theoretically, a $200,000 income gets you a sh1t 4bd/2bth split level that needs updating in a so-called decent town. Do you see why my mother-f*cking blood boils?
And the property taxes just keep rising like someone taking a f*cking meat clever and hacking away without any recourse. Which, BTW, I got a notice yesterday that my taxes are going up to $9,300 a year. This, for a house on a 50 X 100 lot in a town that’s losing the battle to defer the “elements” from prestigious towns like Paterson and Passaic. F*cking sarcasm off.
Big drop in U6 from 16.2 to 15.6.
22 – You are on the hook for all those new police retiree pensions.
You see some of those salaries? $160k as a cop?
I’m the idiot that wasted his time and money getting two masters degrees when I should have just hit the beat at 18. I’d be halfway to retirement already.
tbiggs,
Who are you buying your green beans from? I was always curious whether roasting one’s own beans provided superior coffee, or just fresher tasting coffee. The reason I believe the Kona we buy direct from a tiny farm on the Big Island is so good is due to it’s freshness. Everyone is familiar with that gorgeous aroma that is produced whenever you open a new bag of beans or even a can of preground coffee. Well, before I even open my shipped box of Kona, I can already smell the coffee. A snob I am not, but I sampled coffees styles and varieties from around the world and nothing is quite as smooth and not bitter as Kona. I buy from this farm mainly due to their excellent prices (captain Cheapo) and it’s nice knowing I’m buying from a family farm. Gator and I brought fruit from their farm-stand on our honeymoon.
Grim,
Forget the 160K, it’s the gold-clad benefits that make me jealous. Sheyit, every public worker I know is on disability. :P
I was at Williams Sanoma a week or two ago and saw some cold water process coffee brewers. One looked like I needed to break out my old wet-bench chemistry skills and the other was like some sort of plastic water filter. The process is supposed to produce a low acid syrup or something that one adds to boiling water to produce coffee. Does anyone here have experience with such a system?
As for restaurant coffee, the best I have ever had has been at the Palm Court.
“UE is at 8.6%”
Happy days are here again.
(24) grim,
Same here. My father was a cop and didn’t want me following in his footsteps. Wonder if he still thinks that.
Nom,
While the guys who became LEOs are surf fishing in retirement in NC, at least you will have the satisfaction that comes from work.
(14) morph,
If Obama gets his way, coal stoves will be outlawed or hyper-regulated, making them pointless by design. So it is something to consider sooner rather than later.
Same for wood and pellet stoves but to a lesser degree. These will merely be made more expensive by regulation.
(30) shore,
Feh.
Nom, I was discouraged as well even though family was super connected in the hell hole I grew up in. I would be hitting my 20 years this year if I had gone that route. two of my friends who did live in upper haughtyvilles with houses paid off. I look forward to ensuring their lifestyle remains nice and plush while I struggle on six figures.
Combining Carrier IQ with administrative subpoenas (interesting things that I have had experience with in my work) issued under the USA PATRIOT Act (full title is Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism) the USG has the tools to know every last button one pushes on one’s smartphone:
http://blogs.voanews.com/digital-frontiers/2011/12/02/carrier-iq-quietly-tracking-your-phone/
Well, back to the salt mine.
No. 12 Wonder if Bon Jovi works his own vegetable stand
grim [24],
Yeah, I saw the list. F*cking party’s over.
Corzine subpoenaed. Details to follow.
120K in new jobs, 400K plus in new UE filings and UE goes down 40 basis points.
Must be the new math.
GRIM #12 –
that list sickens me – they should really crack down on that bullshit
funny, the list includes several entertainers ad politicians……they type who are busy bashing wall st regularly……perhaps they should be “occupied”
Seriously OT alert:
Okay, I thought I was weird for actually liking this and drinking it periodically. Now, it seems I was a trendsetter.
http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/chompions/201112/meet-new-energy-drink-pickle-juice
[Preemptive strike alert] And no JJ, not that kind. Get your mind out of the gutter.
Morpheus #11: I sent you e-mail with details about the sofa and coffee table.
[Lead story]
What the story probably doesn’t point out, and if it does, I am sure it minimizes that fact greatly, is that the low taxed land consists only of land (and perhaps outbuildings). My understanding of the exemption law is that it does not include principal residences, which are fully taxed. So Bon Jovi may be paying bupkis on 7 acres, but is paying a pantload on the remaining 0.2 acres and his residence.
Consider also that municipalities want open space and must buy land to keep it from being developed. Then they pay FMV and have to float a note to do so. Take away the tax break and these folks will simply sell to a developer. This destroys open space and puts additional pressure on the town’s infrastructure (having additional ratables doesn’t always help since the costs are now and the revenue stream to cover them are recovered over decades). So a counter-way of thinking about this is that it is a cheap method of preserving open space, and a way of maximizing revenue return if one considers the Law of Diminishing Returns in a municipal context.
As for raising the income threshold, I would caution that the right metric should be used. If it is net income and theshold is high, then what of a farmer that gets wiped out by a disaster, pest, or disease? He may cover his costs but not make the threshold, and gets tax-whacked on top of other uncoverable bills. Perhaps the better metric is gross revenues, which also forces the landowner to disclose all income in order to make the threshold. Or a higher, but still reasonably low, threshold that forces some of these “farmers” to actually farm.
#12 Stunning..get it in the Star Ledger front page!
#25 Libtard –
I buy from Sweet Marias. They actually visit quite a few of the plantations they buy from, and also try to work out deals where the grower gets the best deal. “Fair Trade” is a good start, but S-M tries to get them an even better price – to encourage good sources to grow more/better coffee. If I’m running low I order from Roastmasters because they’re in Connecticut and it gets to my house in two days.
There’s a lot of bogus Kona out there; it’s great that you’re getting it right from the source. For smoothness, I like the better Kenyas, and some of the El Salvador and Panamas. The Central American coffees vary in quality, but S-M seems to mostly pick ones that appeal to my tastes.
I simply don’t get bitter coffee out of the Aeropress. I gave up the drip coffee maker years ago.
More on Corzine
http://www.northjersey.com/news/134902223_House_panel_votes_to_subpoena_Corzine_on_MF_Global.html
– Payrolls climbed 120,000, after a revised 100,000 increase in October, with more than half the hiring coming from retailers and temporary help agencies, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.
– The unemployment rate, derived from a separate survey of households, was forecast to hold at 9 percent. The decrease in the jobless rate reflected a 278,000 gain in employment at the same time 315,000 Americans left the labor force.
– “You’d like to see the unemployment rate coming down when people are coming into the job market, not disappearing,” James Glassman, senior economist at JP Morgan Chase & Co. in New York, said in an interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “That’s probably exaggerating the trend in unemployment.”
– Employment at service-providers increased 126,000, including a 50,000 gain in retail trade at companies hired for the holiday shopping season. The number of temporary workers increased 22,300.
– Construction companies fired 12,000 workers. Government payrolls decreased by 20,000. State and local governments employment dropped by 16,000, while the federal government trimmed 4,000 positions.
– Average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent to $23.18, today’s report showed.
– The report also showed an increase in long-term unemployed Americans. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more increased as a percentage of all jobless, to 43 percent from 42.4 percent.
– The jobless rate has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch of such levels of unemployment since monthly records began in 1948.
Nice,
Health care coverage only went up 8% this year for me and dental merely 9%. We don’t need national health care. I think in the past 5 years, my health care costs have increased 40%, yet my salary has increased 2%. Good thing that my commuting costs aren’t going up much….not! Want to know what’s killing our economy? It’s the loss of our discretionary income due to our inept government’s inability to gain economies of scale through social services due to their lack of accountability. The fact that all of their decisions are made based on payback to the lobbyists make it twice as bad.
Occupy DC, not Wall Street!
315,000 left the work force
This includes people that retired and long term unemployed that are not receiving benefits anymore.
If by January,they don’t extend UE benefits,we should see a lower rate of unemployment.A big percentage of this people will be living the workfoce.
Nom [38];
Corzine subpoenaed. Details to follow.
Subpoenaed – sure. But was he served? Where’s Jon?
I can shed a little light on this. Since about 3 years ago, all int’l general aviation flights (read as, Corzine’s private jet) are required to file a passenger manifest with the FAA as least 24 hours prior to departure from or arriaval in the US (eAPIS – Electronic Advance Passenger Information System; FMI see https://eapis.cbp.dhs.gov/).
If his pilots were following the rules (and they may not be direct employees of his – there may be a fractional jet operator in the middle handling the details) the gov’t SHOULD know if he’s left the country.
Morph,
Quick question- you said that your offer was based on 2% inflation from 1996? Was that ’96 to 2011 or did you stop at bubble?
re: unemployment #’s – Grim you should redo your stick man chart to show them falling off the 99 weeks and into oblivion.
The Civilian labor participation rate is 64% which means there are plenty of idle folks not paying any taxes into the system.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
Rev’d [50];
FAA -> CBP
re: # 46- Nom – Should be interesting to watch him squirm while he takes the 5th repeatedly. I am interested in how they became a primary dealer. I would like to know where I can get the application.
Thursday, December 8, 2011 – 9:30 a.m.
1300 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, D.C.
Full Committee on Agriculture — Public Hearing
RE: Examination of MF Global bankruptcy.
We can actually have a budget suplus if we can control health care cost.We are paying more than double as other wealthy countries.
Who is the Grover Norquist for health care?
I don’t know a single unemployed person who does not deserve to be unemployed. Must unemployed people either threw their lack of work ethic, lack of good health, lack of IQ, Lack of looks, lack of education, lack of good job exprience or lack of picking the right job, industry or company.
You roll the dice and sometimes it comes up snake eyes.
Yo the best way to control health care costs is through increased competition and tort reform. Since the insurance lobby petitions congress and the majority of those congress critters are ambulance chasers you have a comets chance in hades of seeing that happen
Civilian labor force participation rate in chart form it peaked just before
the dot com bubble busted at 67.3% and is now 64%
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Lots of people sitting idle.
It’s the loss of our discretionary income due to our inept government’s inability to gain economies of scale through social services due to their lack of accountability.
What, you mean property taxes doubling in 8 years? Or a patrolman’s salary at $160,000? Or the Assistant Superintendant to the Deputy Assistant Superintendent’s salary of $460,000?
[48] libtard
This was expected, and I have long been on record as saying that PPACA/HCERA was the worst result that could have come out. At least with single payer or public option, you get near universal coverage even though the taxpayer gets handed a huge bill and you have de facto nationalized the health care industry. With public option, the bill isn’t quite so huge, and you avoid total de facto nationalization, but you also get a two-tiered healthcare system with the better care going to the privately insured or cash payers.
In short, the other options would have made some very happy and some miserable, while PPACA pretty much pisses off everyone.
[56] JJ
All that could have been avoided if they did a better job picking their parents.
[54] Juice
“Should be interesting to watch him squirm while he takes the 5th repeatedly. ”
Any bets on whether Fox runs it live and commercial-free?
stu (48)-
Nothing is going to change until we decide to start dragging these crooks out of their homes and executing them on the spot.
We are well past the point of reasoned responses and rational fixes to gubmint, banks, civil service, etc. These guys are nothing less than the Gambinos, Luccheses and Genoveses all rolled into one…and protected/given legitimacy by “law”.
I would much rather be hitting the ramparts myself than booting that piece of unpleasantry to my children, who accuredly will have multiple piles of crap to clean up, no matter how this all plays out.
We broke it; we should fix it.
Grim [title post];
In addition to adjusting for inflation, how about assessing a minimum per acre? Seems to me that getting $3500 out of 35 acres is a little different than getting $3500 out of 5 acres.
What do parents have to do with it? Most unemployed people are in their 50s nowdays.
Must people in good health with a normal IQ and normal looks have the man in the mirror to blame. Heck I have told people point blank what to do and they refuse. My fat slopply dressed friend wants a job and I say lose weight and dress better then they get mad. So is life.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
December 2, 2011 at 11:29 am
[56] JJ
All that could have been avoided if they did a better job picking their parents.
World power swings back to America
The American phoenix is slowly rising again. Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8844646/World-power-swings-back-to-America.html
yo – we are going to frack ourselves to prosperity.
Due to fracking, the nat gas market is destroyed for awhile (price wise). There will be a rebound at some point soon, because it is that far sold off. I don’t know when the NJ public utility commission (PUC) sets the fixed regulated price, but likely over the summer. However, you can assume for 2012, 2013 or so, there will be no question that gas will be the way to go. To be clear, as prima facie evidence how far Obama has his head up his a%%, he is not backing the fracking initiative in an organized and thoughtful way. Instead, this entire opportunity is being vilified by the left and the greens, when in reality, it is such an important solution for this country. If you have opinions about natural gas, either in its use or cost, that we formed prior to about 3 years ago, then you need to study up on some recent developments. It is a revolutionary change……
Morpheus says:
December 2, 2011 at 7:32 am
thanks for all your kind words on the purchase. Plumber comes in today to do repairs.
the home is masonary block construction which thermal scans (thanks das uber inspector) with minimal insulation if at all. I will be adding insulation to the attic this weekend. Thank god its gas heat.
We will see what it costs to heat the place. When gas prices start to rise again, i can put in a coal stove. All i need is a rec. on a guy with a dump truck who can go to PA and pick up 4-5 tons of bulk coal.
juice (69)-
We won’t stop until everyone in Amerika can set fire to their tap water.
#48 Lib
What have gvmt economies of scale have to do with your healthcare premiums. You’re in the free market baby. The gvmt doesn’t provide your healthcare. Those premiums are good old market forces at work. Healthy compitition between providers that keep those premiums low.
[67 JJ]
I know a young woman who is getting nowhere in the job search, going on interviews and getting no response. Might be the tatoo on her neck, but she doesn’t see it.
72
free market in healthcare? in this country?
cape (73)-
Any chance that neck tat says “Born to Lose”?
I hear all the big H/R types love that.
To be clear, as prima facie evidence how far Obama has his head up his a%%, he is not backing the fracking initiative in an organized and thoughtful way. Instead, this entire opportunity is being vilified by the left and the greens, when in reality, it is such an important solution for this country.
Oblammy’s a f*cking mope, plain and simple. He’ll get re-elected by the same crowd that can only communicate in sentence fragments.
Love/Hate inked on knuckles is big, too.
Healthcare is a nightmare, but we have yet to hear real solutions to the problem. The issue we have is a system that neither free market nor socialist, and insurers who need to make yield on investments at a time where it clearly isn’t easily or safely achievable. If I were responsible for reforming the system, the first thing we should address is medical records and standardizing the computerization of the industry. Then claims processing and submission should be mandated, there is tremendous waste in the paperwork and the differences in how the insurers work. Claims processing, R&C, etc should be taken away from the insurers and put in the hands of a new government entity, insurance should be relegated to a purely financial role, there is no benefit to the byzantine system we have now. The government should start to role out true socialized wellness care for all, I’m not saying we should have fully socialized healthcare but marginal cost wellness care should be available to all, it will make healthcare cheaper over all. Federally operated doctors offices should be built across the country and programs should be started that provide education to people wishing to be doctors, PA, or nurses in exchange for service at federally operated healthcare facilities. Another thing that needs to be addressed is Tort Reform and providing reasonably priced malpractice insurance to doctors, again maybe even federally supported. We need action not just adding federal dollars into a broken system.
All the coffee lovers here need to take a trip to Paramus. Nothing like fressh beans just off the roaster.
http://www.fairwaymarket.com/department-coffee/
#78
None of the paid coffers will even be willing to debate that.If we can even have congress to debate or even talk about it will be a start.
JC (78)-
Because the gubmint does such a bang-up, efficient job at everything they undertake?
Maybe when we finally overthrow the criminal racket that currently masquerades as gubmint, the actual gubmint that replaces it MIGHT be the proper entity for putting a new healthcare system in place.
We also have yet to have a debate as to whether healthcare is a human right that should be available to all, or a consumer service that’s available only in proportion to how much a consumer can pay. Absent the consensus resolution of this debate, the crooks will continue to jump into the breach with all kinds of evil and fraudulent schemes and come-ons.
Wanna be healthy? Stop shoving crap into your piehole. Get your lard ass off the couch and walk around the block once or twice. Get a dog that can take a big bite out of somebody, keep a few firearms around and try not to get sucked into the CNN/Fox/Matt Lauer/CNBC stupid-making vortex.
Beyond this, it’s all a waste of time.
73 equal oppurtunity regardless of race, color, creed, national origin, age & disabilities. Tattoos & piercings oh well. Although the chicky I work with got a nice one going across her entire lower back right above her butt which I get to see on summer casual Friday’s. Always wonder what that things going to look like when she’s fifty
Meat I guess I’m OK then : )
Taking bets how low the Chinese RE market will go down.Government target is 40%
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/real-estate-prices-fall-in-china-inciting-anger-and-applause-adam-minter.html
Mike us boys form the laboratory used to call it the protein bullseye. Otherwise know as a tramp stam or A$$ antlers depending on the type of tattoo
Fabius.
There is no free market in the US health care. It’s really an oligopoly at best. An oligopoly who lobbies to ensure that national healthcare will ever occur.
Fairway Kona was like $30 the last time I looked. I tried it and wasn’t as fresh as mine. Probably because it’s way to expensive. I debated with their coffee guy and he pretty much agreed with me. Sometimes they sell their fresh Mozzarella for $4/pound. That’s the shiznit. Otherwise, I’m not impressed by Fairway at all. I think Whole Foods has better produce worth paying the slight premium for.
ever=never
Amazing how much of an impact that letter ‘n’ makes.
#81 Clot
When you say proportional. Is that means tested basic triage/care or is it that if you have $1 you can afford Asprin, if you don’t have a dollar, you get no care?
the trampstamp not so good at work. other problem is the 40 something middle aged boss with a stay at home wife hiring a young hottie with tats is going to get him a real beating after wife see’s his new hire at xmas party.
hooters, canz, she might find work, from there the topless clubs, then to craigslist escort to finally a shallow grave at gilgo beach. she should cover it up
POS cape says:
December 2, 2011 at 12:03 pm
[67 JJ]
I know a young woman who is getting nowhere in the job search, going on interviews and getting no response. Might be the tatoo on her neck, but she doesn’t see it.
Gary,
O gets elected by the center that can’t pull the handle on a Mitt/ Newt. No credible opposition is the easiest way to win an election.
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(86) pain,
We also called it the pull out target.
trampstamp gets girls attention. men are wired to reproduce and hook up. Back in my single days, high risk activity girls are most likely froma statistical point of view to put out. Girls who have tattos, smoke, drive fast, ride motorcycles, have piercing, skydive, don’t wear seat belts are more likely to engage in a one night stand. Men who are drinking and looking to hook up seat out these girls over nice girls.
However, sober men hiring women or seeking a spouse avoid the same things that greatly attract them at two am after ten beers. Women mistake this attraction for something good.
I once met a beautiful blonde who towards end of night said she was having a great night, she flew over to meet her girlfriends at bar and was cooking at 80 mph, she had a few tall boys in the lot as she knew she was paying her own way and she was smoking a cigarette.
This was two am on a Thursday and I had work the next day so I on purpose did not hook up. I took her out on Saturday and holy green light when she went to grab her smokes in the bar I saw a toothbrush and fresh underware. She looked back they are just in case so you better be good!!!
Now would I hire or marry that girl?
56- Really? What pure nonsense. Funny ’cause I see plenty of employed folks who don’t deserve to hold they job they hold. So you are saying because they “rolled the dice wrong” they DESERVE to be unemployed. I don’t usually take any of your bait but when you have friends who haven’t had paychecks in 2 years and they “deserve” to have a job you get a bit cynical. Merry Christmas to you to.
Fabius [90],
This guy in the Whitehouse is credible? The class divider? The rudderless leader? The one who’s content on America’s middle-of-the-pack existence? The pessimist? Let’s see a one on one debate between Gingrich and the talking head. Gingrich will gut him like a flounder.
JJ #67: I’m a 4’10” size 16 with a high income and professional respect. When the weight comes with brains, people skills, good grooming/hygiene and confidence, it doesn’t stand in the way, except when the hiring manager is a superficial nitwit.
No offense meant, but shoe, fits, etc.
Truth stranger than fiction or just chutzpa?
Herman Cain launches ‘Women for Herman Cain’ Website
Site comes after he says his wife didn’t know he helped gal pal with money
All aboard the Cain Train, ladies.
Herman Cain, whose campaign has been rocked by charges of sexual harassment and adultery, is trying to fix his tarnished image by launching a new website Friday called “Women for Herman Cain.”
The site, which is run by his wife, Gloria, features testimonials from women who support Cain – and from those who slam his accusers.
“Dear Mrs. Cain, Don’t pay attention to these pathetic husband-less women who are jealous of women like you in happy long-term marriages,” wrote one supporter from California. “These vindictive women can’t find a husband or keep one.”
snip
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/herman-cain-admits-wife-didn-t-alleged-mistress-ginger-white-article-1.985794#ixzz1fP2mTyID
Shore #97: Rule #1 of opposite-sex “friends”: If you are hiding your “friendship” from your spouse, ask yourself why you feel you need to. If you are paying her bills on an ongoing basis, AND you’re hiding her from your wife, it’s an affair. S*x is immaterial.
Fake farms – I knew some people in Franklin Lakes doing this way back in the early 80’s. New construction of the earliest McMansions qualified as farms. Two sheep used to do the trick.
What exactly is high income Jill?
Short chicks are hotties. Also birth order and height I left out. BTW none of what I said apply to women. I think women it hurts you if your are too hot. I used to sell business and I would have to take clients out. Sometimes good places, Sometimes just me and them. Like the plague I avoided hot female clients, also I mentored numerous women, I also had a hard time with hot ones.
Usually the below average looking girls use their looks to their advantage as they get the business trips with boss, going to conference with boss and mentoring breakfasts.
One 60 year old women I met at the hotel restrauant across the street from my office for breakfast meetings once in a while as was only time we were both free. Imagine if I wanted to do that with a 29 year old five foot nine 125 pound hot blonde girl.
I do have one or two hot girls I know threw work and once in awhile they go lets meet for dinner or I got tickets to a game. Sadly I told both unless you want to marry me and let me move into your apartment no way as this is divorce material.
One girl who is an insanely swimsuit model hot latin american CPA who looks like women on Modern Family I made mistake of saying my buddy backed out going to the game with me on my row one seats, she is like go with me. I am like no way in a nice way my wife would kill me, I get she does not have to know. Lets see row one hottest girl in stadium, me next to her I am on camera no way, she is like please finally I go no and she gets a little pouty. Meanwhile the next year I took wife to same seats and she was dressed nice, hair done sunglasses as she knows they put the seats on camera now and then, sure enough she is on camera.
Jill says:
December 2, 2011 at 1:22 pm
JJ #67: I’m a 4’10″ size 16 with a high income and professional respect. When the weight comes with brains, people skills, good grooming/hygiene and confidence, it doesn’t stand in the way, except when the hiring manager is a superficial nitwit.
No offense meant, but shoe, fits, etc.
[9] grim- In 1964 a new house cost $20,500, average income was $6,000, gas was 30 cents, and a gallon of milk was less than a buck.
Yeah but the cost of first class mail went up 25% that year. From 4 cents to 5.
And Demi Moore was two years old So what
BTW next week doing some business in Europe, a few countries and visiting financial firms. I will report back, but pretty much give me a few days and I can solve this crisis.
The Original NJ Expat says:
December 2, 2011 at 1:40 pm
[9] grim- In 1964 a new house cost $20,500, average income was $6,000, gas was 30 cents, and a gallon of milk was less than a buck.
Yeah but the cost of first class mail went up 25% that year. From 4 cents to 5.
66 – 500 is the minimum for the first 5 acres, each additional acre is $5 in revenue. 10 acres would be $525 min.
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/02/9166035-foreclosed-homes-empty-lots-are-next-occupy-target
For John:
http://images.mirror.co.uk/upl/m4/nov2011/0/1/lady-gaga-image-1-196892657.jpg
Clot, I’m not saying the govt will do a bang up job, but even if they ran it like the Post Office, standardizing how claims are submitted and serviced, it would still be way more efficient than the Byzantine system we have now. My thought on wellness care is that by utilizing federally employed physicians assistants and doctors we can create basic care that is focused on delivering high efficiency care like Canada does for many things. If we can drive the cost of a standard doctor visit down to $40, make the end user pay $10 or $15 of that, drive down basic x-rays, blood tests, strep cultures etc, we could drive down healthcare costs overall, it works almost every place else it’s been tried, why not here? I’m not saying we should go all canada here and start giving out free non routine surgeries as that does not seem to work so well, when it comes to complicated procedures the free market route seems to be the route people prefer worldwide. But lots of other things are pretty much commoditized. As for the tech part of what I was thinking about, it would not be built by the government, they’d simply bid it out.
Also while the government is usually full of graft, inefficient, etc. The feds seem to do better than the local guys, honestly NOAA is an example of a federal agency that with regards to cost effectiveness, seems to beat the privatized guys almost every single time. The problem is that some tasks are just not particularly well suited to privatization, and in my mind healthcare claims processing is one of those areas. I don’t care if they bid the actual work out but there needs to be a mandate and a uniform way of processing claims.
Her name is Stephanie, playas don’t use stage names when talking to celebs. Not like you say Lady Gaga will you pass the salt, more like yo stephanie pass the salt.
Shore Guy says:
December 2, 2011 at 2:00 pm
For John:
http://images.mirror.co.uk/upl/m4/nov2011/0/1/lady-gaga-image-1-196892657.jpg
Good analysis from a Mish reader:
If you look at the average labor force growth from 1948 to 2007 of 1,579,000 the labor force should have expanded by 6,316,000 2008-2011. Instead the labor force expanded by a mere 38,000!
Thus, 6,278,000 people are unaccounted for in the unemployment numbers based on historical averages.
Nice write-up and charts of the real numbers:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/falling-unemployment-rate-is.html
People seem to like their Medicare… even teabaggers (“Keep your gubmint hands off my Medicare!)
JCer,
NOAA is efficient because it’s filled with nerds who don’t know better.
[43] Nom – That analysis is much too cogent for a Friday. You must have thought it through earlier in the week.
RE 110, that is a silly stat. Take wall street, back in 1986 it was packed, trades settled manually at BDs, which tooks tons of clerks, banks settled manually tooks tons of clerks, DTCC was manual took tons of clerks. We also had runners, shoeshine boys, typewriter and xerox machine repairman, huge mainframes an dot matrix printers and Fax machines to maintain. Margin Clerks, massive hoards of brokers, massive print shops to print stock certificates Paying Agents and transfer agents to change certificate names and cancel and people got dividend checks cut and people paid for stocks with checks. Tons of branches where people traded stocks. Plus we had cafeterias, receptionists, nurses, in-house training, management training programs, marketing done in house and HR did own recruiting and every firm had a research group. All those jobs are gone for good. I luckily was one of the last people to do a full management training program on wall street. I got opportunity to work in dozens of different areas. But the guy who did one thing, lets say runner who carried securities back and forth all day well his job is dead and he knows how to do no other jobs.
Hey when is the rich chick Jill taking us out for drinks? I am going to upper midtown tonight for some pricey steaks and I am keeping an eye out for Jill. One of those places the rich top 100 women on wall street hang out. Of course since Erin at Lehman and Sallie at Citigroup got canned, might be just top 98 women on wall street, but still pretty good.
Lib, actually the fact they are nerds or scientists as they prefer to be called , does make them efficient. They are very interested in what they are doing and thus their jobs are more than a paycheck, they love tracking weather and surveying the atmosphere, charting the oceans, managing the fisheries, in fact only those interested in making money are going to the private sector firms hence why they can be efficient. I think the same goes for the Army Corp of engineers and the Coast Guard, shining examples of how our government should work.
[104];
Kind of makes your point, doesn’t it.
[112] expat
“That analysis is much too cogent for a Friday. You must have thought it through earlier in the week.”
Thought???? If I actually thought, it would be brilliant. Instead, it’s just insightful. And to Fab and Schab, it’s just bulls**t
[66, 104] moose, grim
Great points as it keeps people from gaming the system, but one thing to consider is how much land can be put into production so as to avoid penalizing folks that don’t clear woodland. Another issue is wetlands–any puddle qualifies, and you want to avoid penalizing those that have unusable space that serves the watershed.
Another thing to consider is deadweight loss. Impose too stiff a tax or inflexible a regime and these people will subdivide and then give the land to a nonprofit or put it into conservation easements. Super tax deduction, get out from under the property tax, and still maintain effective use of the property but without the hassle of growing stuff.
118- valid points
I usually only put forth the ideal (in my opinion) reforms – but, ideally, there would be no property tax so individuals could actually own property rather than rent it in perpetuity.
I’m really looking forward to seeing what happens in North Dakota.
John,
I don’t believe I called her by any name.
“property tax ”
Assessed value is not a rational basis for property tax. If someone , say John, has a 22-room house on 5 acres and a family of four, assessed at 410,000,00, and someone else has an eight-room house on 1/2 acre and a family of eight, assessed at $800,000 how is it that John — as would be reflected by a much greater tax bill — making a greater demand on municipal services?
Great I’m going to be in Europe the same time as JJ, at least I’ll know why the lights are off in the red light districts.
JCer I have heard this repeatedly, wow you were a working scientist! I would not have guessed since you have common sense. My response, yes that is why I’m not a working scientist anymore
Municipal/county services are not insurance, where they could be called upon to pay to replace a structure. It does not impose a greater strain on a municipality to respond to a prowler call for a more expensive house than a less expensive one. The same for an amublance call, etc. Headcount is probably a more accurate reflection of costs.
JJ #114: It’s not THAT high; it’s 10-year-old Honda Civic, 8-year-old Corolla, and POS-cape with half-refaced knotty pine cabinets in POS cape high. Just pointing out that not everyone who’s short ‘n’ fat (and yes, I’m taking back the word “fat” to be simply a descriptor and not fraught with value judgment) is working in a meatpacking plant or fast food joint.
“unusable space that serves the watershed.”
Just lease that portion to frackers and they can use the water in their process. Problem solved.
Other point to remember……..during delivery when said Tramp Stamp holder requests epidural, the anesthesiologist will deny her due to the concern of tat ink mixing with spinal fluid…..it pays to think ahead……
Painhrtz – I ain’t dead yet says:
December 2, 2011 at 12:31 pm
Mike us boys form the laboratory used to call it the protein bullseye. Otherwise know as a tramp stam or A$$ antlers depending on the type of tattoo
Libtard in Union says:
December 2, 2011 at 12:40 pm
ever=never
Amazing how much of an impact that letter ‘n’ makes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5bA5NRoFUc
#95 Gary
I can’t wait for the debates. It will be fun to watch Mitt or Newt back their truckload of bagage up to the podium.
But by that time the 529s will be full speed Swiftboating the candidates.
Got popcorn!
I’ve been thinking many of these thoughts, some have been discussed here already:
http://alephblog.com/2011/11/30/a-large-middle-class-isnt-necessarily-normal/
This is not likely to be a popular post. Just warning you.
I have a bias that modernity is more fragile than commonly believed. One aspect of that is income/wealth distributions. Inequality was far more pronounced in the past, and was fairly stable in being so. So why should the last 150 or so years not be viewed as a possible aberration?
Let me give you five or so reasons why the middle class should shrink:
1) Education — middle classes in the developed world were relatively large when the education systems produced a large portion of the educated people of the world. That is no longer so, and relative education levels have tipped against the US. Any surprise that we fall behind?
2) Lazy choices for majors/jobs — “follow your bliss” is stupid advice if no one wants to fund your bliss. All prosperity comes through serving the needs of others. Follow their bliss, not yours, and you will do well.
3) Technology — some technological advances aid equality, and some aid inequality — we have been getting more of the latter lately. If a technology aids one person to serve many at low marginal costs, it will aid inequality, unless the technology is broadly shared and used.
4) Global Conditions — Resources are scarce. Capital is somewhat scarce. Unskilled labor is not scarce. Skilled labor is somewhat scarce. For those that have not prepared themselves to be productive by having needed skills, it is a tough time. You won’t be carried along by the prosperity of your nation, because there are many others competing against you overseas, which was not true in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. (Nor even the 80s and 90s, in degree…)
5) Personal Ethics — Societies that tolerate many children conceived out of wedlock, and no-fault divorce create an underclass of poor women with children, and the children are far less able to compete because they have no father figure.
6) Politics won’t change things — this is yet another hard reality. People may vote, but money/resources “vote” more. Especially in societies where education has slumped, power gravitates to those that will better the whole, even if it means the elites get more.
Someone please send the memo to the “Occupy” crowd, and tell them that have succeeded at being the “freak show” amid changing times, but utterly irrelevant to the changes happening around the globe. If they have jobs, get to them, if not, go find one. You might be relevant then.
[129] West,
All of these have long been evident to those that are willing to look around, and do so without the filtered glass of an agenda.
For these reasons, as more locally reflected in JJ’s more pedestrian prose on the same topic, I decided to follow my original bliss and get my ass into law school. At least I will be able to feed on the dead carcass of the middle class.
JCer [115];
I occasionally note the forecaster’s name on a weather chart I’m using. Noticed about a year ago that Paul Kocin is back at NOAA. He did a stint with the Weather channel as their “Winter Storm Expert”. I guess the money and fame of the private sector were too much for him. ;-)
[129] West,
I particularly enjoyed this exchange:
“Countries that are more equal, as measured by the Ginnie coefficient, have the lowest standard of living. Those with the highest dispersion have the highest standard of living. The poorest in this country are in the top 5% of global income distributions. You can have an equal society, where everyone is poor (except the political class). Equal societies are the goal of dictatorships, communist, and socialist regimes.
This also highlights the problems with government interjections in the student loan market. You are given the same amount regardless of major, despite vastly different payoff probabilities.
Windchasers says: . . . I don’t think that’s true, HistorySquared. Take a look at a map of the world, sorted by Gini coefficients:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gini_Coefficient_World_CIA_Report_2009-1.png
Most of the 1st-world countries have particularly low Gini coefficients, with the US being the big exception, and to a lesser extent, Japan. It is certainly *not* true that the most-equal countries generally have the lowest standards of living, nor that those with the highest dispersion have the highest standards of living, unless you believe Botswana and Columbia to be rich and prosperous countries.
The converse is not true; while rich countries tend to be equal, and unequal countries tend to be poor, you can find plenty of poor countries that are more equal than the US.
HistorySquared says: . . . Western European countries facing bankruptcies and a Japan that is poised for a debt crises (and perhaps hyperinflation) are not models that i would consider as successful arguments for more government redistribution to promote “fairness.”
I would look perhaps at the countries of tomorrow: South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore – all of which have very high gini coefficients. Conversely, you have Pakistan, Kurdistan, and Tajikistan with low gini coefficients.”
My verdict: Historysquared bitchslaps windtalker.
A. West: as an addendum to #3; technology allows a concentration of wealth to be focused in the hands of fewer people, as any profitable concept has greater dissemination and reach, crowding out all but the top tier offering and hollowing out the middle…..pure capitalism….the Wal-Mart effect
To me, this explains a great deal about New Yorkers
http://health.yahoo.net/news/s/hsn/citylivingtiedtomoreanxietymooddisorders
Actually I read once that to be upper income you should at least earn 10K for every year of age you are. 30 = 300K or 50 = 500K. To think 30 years ago if you made your age you were doing pretty good. By the time I am 70 I am going to be really raking in some cash.
Well off to steaks and then Europe. Hopefully, Timmy G wont be talking so much mumbo jumbo over there, he is tiresome after awhile.
Jill says:
December 2, 2011 at 3:12 pm
JJ #114: It’s not THAT high; it’s 10-year-old Honda Civic, 8-year-old Corolla, and POS-cape with half-refaced knotty pine cabinets in POS cape high. Just pointing out that not everyone who’s short ‘n’ fat (and yes, I’m taking back the word “fat” to be simply a descriptor and not fraught with value judgment) is working in a meatpacking plant or fast food joint.
I have been to walmart, there is no concentation of wealth there.
CHIFI BTW the consent offer on BAC Trups was scam of the century.
Turns out BAC had already bought more than 50% of bonds. So they already had the vote. But they need a vote from all bondholders. So they made a consent fee if you consent. Now the tender offer to swap your at par bonds with an 8% coupon for bonds that mature at 92 is voluntary. So who would do it, well BAC would, they swap lets say one billion in bonds they own for $920 million, sell bonds in open market for $920 million and liabilities fall $80 million with nothing out of pocket.
chicagofinance says:
December 2, 2011 at 3:49 pm
A. West: as an addendum to #3; technology allows a concentration of wealth to be focused in the hands of fewer people, as any profitable concept has greater dissemination and reach, crowding out all but the top tier offering and hollowing out the middle…..pure capitalism….the Wal-Mart effect
Grim and the other code monkeys there is your chance. Facebook is opening an engineering office in NYC, it’s IPO won’t happen until after at least April.
http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-new-york-announcement-2011-12
re: Tramp Stamps
The old tribal ones are pretty tame compared to the tats the kids have been getting recently. A stroll on the Point Pleasant boardwalk was a real eye opener last summer.
Are you saying that your TrUPS are going to remain as a stub to BAC along with the others who failed to consent? If so, it leaves you open to getting a par call, since it will be less money to pony up……honestly, I doubt that is that case, because it is too easily lawsuited……
JJ says:
December 2, 2011 at 4:14 pm
CHIFI BTW the consent offer on BAC Trups was scam of the century.
Turns out BAC had already bought more than 50% of bonds. So they already had the vote. But they need a vote from all bondholders. So they made a consent fee if you consent. Now the tender offer to swap your at par bonds with an 8% coupon for bonds that mature at 92 is voluntary. So who would do it, well BAC would, they swap lets say one billion in bonds they own for $920 million, sell bonds in open market for $920 million and liabilities fall $80 million with nothing out of pocket.
West, your arguments are interesting but I see a slightly different scenario. The biggest thing is low cost manufacturing, where we used to have people manufacturing things making a living wage, we now import and the stuff is sold at the same price but a small portion goes overseas and the rest of the profit goes up to the so called 1%. We have a situation now where you’re consumers are consuming but are no longer benefiting from the consumption with good jobs.
I’ll dispel the education argument because worldwide in general the vast majority of your top research universities are in the US, UK, and Western Europe, India and China each have a few good schools and then it falls off into schools that are not at par with a bad state university in the US, in Asia Japan and South Korea really have the best university systems.
Not all workers can be skilled, there are those who are capable but there are an awful lot of people who just don’t have what it takes to be “skilled” labor. America is built on consumption, we need a middle class, they provide the demand for the worlds labor force. Chinese workers don’t make the income nor does their culture/lifestyle require the same consumption, they are savers not spenders. The real issue with the global economy can be traced to China’s growth, their entrance into the world economy acts like a vacuum, it sucks money away from the spenders. Essentially instead of the western world having a middle class, subsistence in China has changed from agriculture to industrial manufacturing, we’ve spread money across many people who really do not consume at the level of their American and European counterparts, on top of this the wealth in China is concentrated among few and the currency is manipulated so that the worker in China cannot be a consumer in the global economy. So what we has occurred is globally chinese manufacturing decimated manufacturing jobs, enriched business owners and the wealthy at the expense of the middle class and in China has created a new form of subsistence living for the factory worker and enriched the wealthy. Basically the wealthy are the beneficiaries and everyone else suffers and in America it is made worse because not only are there not the opportunities but we have a government that is always taking and never giving back, the middle is squeezed, with limited economic prospects, they went to the bank for credit and have now tapped that out, hence why we have a global credit crisis. China of course is now our big creditor.
I got to run, but whether you consented or not they still changed the terms of the bond given them the right to call below par. However, I am guessing they don’t ram a below market call on us retail investors for fear of lawsuits it was done soley so they could tender their positon. The MBNA 25 par trups BAC owned nearly all of them already bought on open market for way below par over last three years.
chicagofinance says:
December 2, 2011 at 4:48 pm
Are you saying that your TrUPS are going to remain as a stub to BAC along with the others who failed to consent? If so, it leaves you open to getting a par call, since it will be less money to pony up……honestly, I doubt that is that case, because it is too easily lawsuited……
re: #140 – JCER – “low cost manufacturing”
Nobody should be calling it low cost.
Very few Americans have any idea of what goes on in those factories overseas, India alone employs 60 million children in their factories, estimates for China are much, much higher.
Nobody should be calling it low cost, call it what it is child slave labor.
JJ,
If BAC owns the $1B bonds and swaps them for $920M, didn’t they also lose $80 mill on the exchange? How can they win on both sides?
Juice, I obviously am not a fan of the slave labor manufacturing, I’m just using the term western businesses use. I fully understand the labor conditions are atrocious and the wages are ridiculously low. Economically speaking the issue is that Chinese manufacturing is not at all more efficient than manufacturing in the western world because instead of increasing margins through innovation and investment in technology, they hire tons of people and pay them almost nothing. I really and honestly believe the global economic issues have a strong correlation to the trade imbalance with China. How can established economies continue to post growth when the stimulus is discretionary spending, which with stagnant wages is simply not possible. I don’t think equality or inequality or Gini coefficients are really relevant. This isn’t the rich vs. the poor or middle class, this is the fact that for continued growth and expanded middle class consuming products and services is definitely needed to sustain global economic growth, that doesn’t mean there cannot be the wealthy and there will not be economic inequality. I try to avoid chinese goods when possible.
#134 – I wasn’t raised in a city, but my amygdala feels out of whack living in one.
We’re #1 online drugstore How is pills to [url=http://pillsrxed.info/viarga/online-viarga.html]now online viarga[/url] – major medical device companies!!!
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/2941961/US-Treasuries-Flirting-With-Another-Downgrade.html
51: 2 % appreciation from 1996 all the way to 2011
JC (107)-
I have lots of family in Canada. They will be the first to tell you that the healthcare system there totally blows.
My niece had a small polyp in her scalp that needed what would be a quick outpatient procedure in the US. Natch, she got put on a waiting list that lasted so long, the whole thing turned into a plastic surgery nightmare.
First thing a Canadian with some loonies does when he has serious health issues is find a US doctor.
JC (115)-
The Army Corps of Engineers nearly sank New Orleans and has engaged for years in some of the most incredible engineering failures and boondoggles in recorded history.
What made the developed countries great is its middleclass.With fairly divided wealth to its citizen,the middleclass became the spender.This is the class that really determines the economy.Without a middleclass is asking for an emerging market economy.
Not a big fan of Jonathan Alter, but the truth is the truth:
6 Shocking Revelations About Wall Street’s “Secret Government”
Top officials willfully concealed the true extent of the 2008-’09 bailouts from Congress and the public.
http://www.alternet.org/story/153274/6_shocking_revelations_about_wall_street%27s_secret_government?page=entire
I get a chuckle from this bit in that article:
“Barney Frank, who was authoring key bank reform legislation was also not informed of the secret loans. No one in Congress was told.”
Like Bawney would have cared? He’s Wall Street’s bought off lackey just like the rest of them. The only thing that makes him stand out from the other crooks in congress is he’s openly gay.
137 – Yeah those guys have been trying to recruit me for just about forever now. I’ve been doing a lot of work lately helping companies develop strategies for customer engagement through social channels. My experience with internet communities and social started somewhere around 300 baud.
nom:
dont think obama will get away with further regulations on coal stoves. His party will revolt on that. The GOP will not stand for it and there will be lawsuits on the regs. If he wins re-election, maybe he will try but I dont think congress will take that lying down.
However, compared to the clowns that GOP is considering nominating, he may very well be re-elected. I must admit that I am enjoying the squirming of “family value” voters with regard to Cain and Newt. Will these voters swallow their pride and vote for these candidates despite their lack of “family values”?
damn…went off on a tangent.
Morph:
Will these voters swallow their pride and vote for these candidates despite their lack of “family values”?
Let us hope so, they are all crooks but I would like a competent one. What do I care which wife you are on or if you are a Mormon.
Can I pray for a miracle & Ron Paul wins, guy can dream. If he did half of what he would like it would turn DC upside-down.
how many on this board should be worried:
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/2011/1203/Guantanamo-for-US-citizens-Senate-bill-raises-questions
(156) morph,
Don’t be so sure. First, I see Obama winning reelection. If the dems take back the house, they will push as much as they can thru in the first two years. And there will be blood.
The new coal regs come in, and when preppers start installing coal stoves en masse, the live will get anxious. First because residential use will undercut the regs effect, and also cuz they get nervous whenever folks on the right do anything that smacks of prepping. They view it as a prelude to civil strife.
FWIW, I don’t think coal makes sense for anything but a nompound. There, I would use coal because I would have the land to stockpile large quantities, and could avoid becoming restricted due to pollution.
Grim – if you know anyone looking, many of these jobs require people with real world experience, it won’t be all PHDs and pimply faced kids.
http://www.facebook.com/careers/department.php?dept=engineering
Krieger, in fine form.
“Alright I am going to kick things off with Europe and get that out of the way as quickly as possible. Nothing has changed and absolutely nothing has been accomplished. There is no “solution” to the crisis that will not result in massive pain, confusion and wealth decimation. The reason is patently obvious. At least half the continent is completely and helplessly bankrupt. There are only two outcomes to the entire situation. Either the sovereign debts are written off aggressively and the banking system declared insolvent and restructured or the ECB decides to turn on those printing presses to the tune of trillions and destroys the purchasing power of the union in Zimbabwe-like fashion. People will read this and think I am exaggerating . The phrase “it takes 5 minutes” keeps running through my head because all it takes is a small amount of time to see the situation for what it is. I am not that smart. This is obvious. The scary thing is that it is abundantly clear that the vast majority of U.S. investors have not bothered to take the 5 minutes necessary to understand how extreme and binary the outcomes to all this is. Their clients will suffer massively in the months and years ahead as a result of their laziness and lack of macro curiosity.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/michael-krieger-explains-why-it-takes-only-5-minutes
Krieger’s Corslime epitaph.
+1:
“So Corzine was as “insider” as you get and he blew his firm to smithereens because he made the mistake of working at a firm that was allowed to fail. He represents everything that is ruining America today. Guys like him are everywhere and their reputations and firms will all be plunging into the ground over the next several years. The best part about this whole story is how Corzine was apparently being considered for Treasury Secretary of the United States. I mean this doesn’t surprise me at all, but it should be a warning to everyone around the world that it is people exactly like Corzine that make all the important decisions in the world today. While it takes a long time to run entire nation-states into the ground don’t you worry they are working hard and are well on their way. “
nom [160]
Regulation of coal-burning stoves will emerge on the local level, at least in places with more than 1 house per acre. There is enough sulfur even in the best quality coal to stink up the neighborhood big time, if a bunch of stoves is used on a regular basis. Don’t forget that burning coal as a main heat source was the principal cause of the air pollution in English cities till mid-20th century… while the power plants scrub away sulfur dioxide and don’t emit it, you can’t do it for a stove.
chi:
I know that natural gas reserves have increased dramatically over the years. Do you have info on projected reserves? Right now I can get coal for $280.00 a ton in NJ, so natural gas is a better deal.
I thought we were exporting a great deal of this natural gas. Any info on that . Your help is greatly appreciated.
morph [165]
We are not exporting much natural gas YET as the LNG terminals were built for importing it, not other way around. There are plans to reverse at least some of them (essentially, one needs to built a gas liquification facility at each terminal which is quite costly). Hopefully these plans are delayed as much as possible – we get a lot of benefit from having natural gas 3x cheaper per calorie than globally priced oil (in Europe it is only 1.4x or so as their Russian nat gas is priced based on the average oil price for a preceding quarter times some factor); it is much better if the benefit goes to 300 mln Americans (when we have it cheap) than to much narrower group of investors and management. Also, with cheap nat gas we have a decent chance of capturing a decent chunk of new petrochemical capacity (construction jobs, production jobs, plus eventually more money from exports than when we sell LNG). However, we are likely to again be our worst enemies – a few years from now, U.S. will be a huge LNG exporter, and it will cost the same to heat a house in winter with oil or gas.
So….it it is probably a better decision now not to get the coal stove. Might be better to get a generator that runs on natural gas for the future power outages, so as to keep the furnace running.
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Juice #161: Somehow I think that if the first digit in one’s 2-digit age is “4” or “5”, said person will not be considered. The kids don’t like working with mom or dad.
Let’s get something damn straight. I’m not a mucking wuss and I’m not gonna sit around worrying about a bunch of damn leftist governments in Europe who subscribed to the same damn tax and spend philosophy that liberals here do. Look at who’s causing the damn problems–people like Corzine. He loved to tax and spend with other people’s money and he did the same mucking thing at MF Global. It’s a damn shame that all of the central banks are forced to bail out a bunch of stinking leftists and liberals!
As to detaining citizens indefinitely, we need that law. Hell, the first person that needs to happen to is Clot and the second person in line is his damn dog.
So Cain is out. Finally.
he’ll continue to speak up for the peeps. Lol
I literally knew about almost all of this, but never the less, I still believed it turned out beneficial. Fine job!
In this discussion of the economy, present and future, there is the memory hole of the last 15 years. We have an inflation of expectations that is rarely confronted in these articles but is touched upon in casual conversations. Increasing income towards property taxes various insurances and higher education are the only factors that are changing the middle-class, the rest is psychological. Take these off the table by bringing them back in line with say, 1990 ratios and we wouldn’t even be talking about the global economy and all it’s cons. I’m not talking about 1965, I’m talking about 1990. Ever feel like you’re being ripped off?
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(164) cobbler
I know. That is one reason, implied but not stated, that it make sense for a nompound but not for a house in Morris County.
[170] reinvestor
Can’t detain Clot, he’s a member of the Toon Army. Detain Fabius, he’s an Arsenal-loving wanker. That’s reason enough for waterboarding.
re # 169 – Jill – talking out of your ass is never a good trait.
Plenty of people working there are in their 40s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Facebook_employees
Morpheus says:
December 3, 2011 at 12:02 pm
chi:
I know that natural gas reserves have increased dramatically over the years. Do you have info on projected reserves? Right now I can get coal for $280.00 a ton in NJ, so natural gas is a better deal.
I thought we were exporting a great deal of this natural gas. Any info on that . Your help is greatly appreciated.
morph: I sent this article to my client distribution list.
NOTE: NET EXPORTER ≠ ENERGY INDEPENDENT
Wall Street Journal
BUSINESS
NOVEMBER 30, 2011
U.S. Nears Milestone: Net Fuel Exporter
By LIAM PLEVEN And RUSSELL GOLD
U.S. exports of gasoline, diesel and other oil-based fuels are soaring, putting the nation on track to be a net exporter of petroleum products in 2011 for the first time in 62 years.
A combination of booming demand from emerging markets and faltering domestic activity means the U.S. is exporting more fuel than it imports, upending the historical norm.
According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday, the U.S. sent abroad 753.4 million barrels of everything from gasoline to jet fuel in the first nine months of this year, while it imported 689.4 million barrels.
That the U.S. is shipping out more fuel than it brings in is significant because the nation has for decades been a voracious energy consumer. It took in huge quantities of not only crude oil from the Middle East but also refined fuels from Europe, Latin America and elsewhere to help run its factories and cars.
As recently as 2005, the U.S. imported nearly 900 million barrels more of petroleum products than it exported. Since then the deficit has been steadily shrinking until finally disappearing last fall, and analysts say the country will not lose its “net exporter” tag anytime soon.
“It looks like a trend that could stay in place for the rest of the decade,” said Dave Ernsberger, global director of oil at Platts, which tracks energy markets. “The conventional wisdom is that U.S. is this giant black hole sucking in energy from around the world. This changes that dynamic.”
So long as the U.S. remains the world’s biggest net importer of crude oil, currently taking in nine million barrels per day, it isn’t likely to become energy independent anytime soon. Yet its growing presence as an overall exporter of fuels made from crude gives it greater influence in the global energy market.
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If the trend toward net exports persists, it could also influence the national political debate over U.S. energy policy, which has been driven primarily by concerns about upheaval in the Middle East over the past decade. The independence of the U.S. from foreign oil sources has long been a lightning-rod issue in Washington, one further inflamed by last year’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Supporters of off-shore drilling have used the desire for independence to push their cause, setting up a battle with environmental groups and others who prefer a shift away from carbon-based fuels.
The growth in exports is part of a “transformation of the energy system,” says Ed Morse, global head of commodity research at Citigroup Inc. “It’s the beginning signs of a process that will continue for the next decade and will point toward energy independence.”
The reversal raises the prospect of the U.S. becoming a major provider of various types of energy to the rest of the world, a status that was once virtually unthinkable. The U.S. already exports vast amounts of coal, and companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. are pursuing or exploring plans to liquefy newly abundant natural gas and send it overseas.
The shift is one of the clearest demonstrations of the diverging fates of the U.S. and emerging market economies. While the U.S. labors under stubbornly high unemployment and sluggish growth, emerging-market economies are growing strongly, bolstering demand for fuel.
U.S. customers have been pulling back in part because an anemic economic recovery has left millions still looking for work. In August, U.S. drivers burned 7.7% less gasoline than four years earlier, when gasoline usage peaked. Production of ethanol made from corn has also ramped up dramatically in recent years, cutting into the need for other fuels.
Now, “we’re not using as much,” said James Beck, an analyst at the EIA. “Prior to 2008, basically anything we produced, we used.”
But U.S. drivers aren’t seeing much benefit in the form of lower prices because refineries on the Gulf Coast are shipping much of their output to places where demand is strong, keeping prices high.
The U.S. was a net exporter of petroleum products in six of the first nine months this year, and the trend accelerated in the third quarter, with September data released Tuesday showing net exports of 919,000 barrels per day, more than any month this year. That indicates to observers that this year will be the U.S.’s first as a net exporter since 1949, when the U.S. economy was ramping up rapidly after World War II.
Mexico and Brazil were major consumers of U.S. exports, according to the September data, while the Netherlands—home to key European ports —and Singapore also were significant net importers.
Gasoline and low-sulfur diesel continued to be among the biggest lures for foreign customers, as was petroleum coke, which is used to make steel. Those are among the many products that are thrown off in the process of refining crude oil.
The growing exports have made the U.S. a pivotal part of the supply chain. In 2006, the U.S. was a net importer of petroleum products from Brazil, but last year it sent a net 106,000 barrels a day.
Argentina and Peru are now net importers from the U.S. For the next year or two, “the economies in Latin America will be growing faster than in the U.S. and the trend of increasing exports should continue,” says Daniel Vizel, U.S. head of oil trading for Macquarie Group Ltd.
Singapore’s net imports from the U.S. roughly quadrupled in the past five years, while Mexico’s rose by about two-thirds. Mexico, in particular, is having trouble keeping pace with gasoline demand and buys about 60% of gasoline exports from the U.S.
The figures illustrate the impact of the significant increase in domestic production thanks to new sources of oil coming from North Dakota and Texas. North Dakota’s oil production of 424,000 barrels per day in July was up 86% over the same period in 2009.
Growing domestic output means refineries in the U.S. are making more fuel than the local market needs. That has given those on the U.S. Gulf Coast added incentive to look for customers abroad.
Also adding to the U.S. exporting firepower: Refineries are more efficient, giving them an edge over older facilities in Europe. New drilling methods are boosting U.S. oil production, helping ensure steady supplies of raw material for refiners to process.
The U.S. could expand its export trade further next year. Motiva Enterprises LLC, a joint venture between Shell and Saudi Arabian Oil Co., is expected to finish work next year on a refinery expansion in Port Arthur, Texas, which would double the facility’s capacity and make it the largest in the U.S. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP and TransMontaigne Partners LP plan to build a $400 million terminal on the Houston ship channel.
For decades through World War II, the U.S. was a net exporter of petroleum products, with sales reaching a high of 126 million barrels in 1944. The country then became a net importer in 1950, and grew increasingly dependent on foreign supply in the 1960s. Net imports peaked just above a billion barrels in 1973, the year domestic oil prices spiked amid the Arab oil embargo. After falling off in the 1980s and 1990s, net imports spiked again in the middle of the last decade before tapering recently.
To be sure, the balance could shift back relatively quickly. If the U.S. economy were to rebound sharply, domestic need for fuels refined from crude oil could also shoot back up, which could increase crude import demand. In addition, U.S. refineries could lose customers if foreign economies falter, sending the U.S back to being a net importer.
Meanwhile, export demand is boosting corporate profits for oil majors, such as Exxon and Royal Dutch Shell PLC, and major U.S. refining firms, such as Valero Energy Corp. and Marathon Petroleum Corp.
“Unless there is a recession around the world, we’re going to be exporting for quite some time,” says Mike Loya, head of Americas for Swiss energy-trading firm Vitol Group, which moves more than five million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products every day.
also
OPINION
NOVEMBER 25, 2011
How America Can Escape the Energy Trap
Soaring natural gas production has already cut the share of oil consumption met by imports to 47% last year from 60% in 2005
By MORTIMER ZUCKERMAN
Can America escape the energy trap? Must our lives and security be forever held hostage to the vagaries of political power in the Middle East oil states? The answers to these questions are yes, and no. Thanks to American technology and enterprise, we can achieve a degree of energy security that once seemed hopeless—but only if we can sort out our priorities.
The good news is that the United States is at the center of a global energy revolution. Our development of innovative shale-gas technology offers the prospect of a huge bonanza of natural gas (and some oil as well). It’s the most positive event in the country’s energy outlook in 50 years. Let’s celebrate the achievement before looking at what needs to be done to bring it to fruition.
Our geologists have long been aware that gas (and oil) lies hidden in the country’s shale beds and under the ocean, but we had no chance to extract it until American entrepreneurial energy inspired companies to gamble on new technologies.
In a phrase, technology has trumped geology. Advances in computer-processing power yielded seismic mapping and three-dimensional imaging, enabling geologists to “see” through the thick layers of rock and salt obscuring the reservoirs thousands of feet below the surface. And new drilling technologies allow us to penetrate thousands of feet of rock, turn a corner, and continue drilling horizontally for several thousand more feet to reach millions of cubic feet of gas.
It’s trapped in the shale, but it can be released by the process known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.” Millions of gallons of water, sand and chemicals are blasted in at high pressure. Fissures open up, and gas and oil seeps out.
The process of finding and producing hydrocarbons from this shale has taken off with such velocity that it has already significantly altered government and corporate energy expectations. The production costs of shale gas are about one-half to one-third the costs associated with new conventional gas wells in North America. The result is a glut of new supply and plummeting prices.
This kind of seismic shift in the energy landscape is rare. It could bring us back to the time when the U.S. and its neighbors in the hemisphere were self-sufficient and even a major world source of energy. Energy companies have become exporters, as the U.S. has surpassed Russia as the world’s leading gas producer.
So what’s the snag—and how serious is it? Communities where fracking has taken place, notably in Ohio and Pennsylvania, protest the noise and scarring of the landscape during the initial explorations. Restoration and compensation can ameliorate those concerns.
The most significant fear is that wastewater from the fracking process, called “flowback,” will contaminate the aquifers and hence drinking water. State regulators in Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming have stated that there have been no verified or documented cases of groundwater contamination as a result of hydraulic fracking.
The process uses about 99% water and sand, the rest being a solution of chemical additives including biocides, surfactants and emulsifiers. While no cases exist in which the fracking process itself has caused drilling liquids to contaminate drinking water, the issue is whether the flowback hazard can remain at acceptable levels.
The risk comes from wells that are not designed properly. Failures in cementing the steel casing at the uppermost portion of a well can send gas bubbling from fracks into nearby water wells. This has occurred on occasion, so fracking liquids can end up in aquifers. The Environmental Protection Agency has now made the commitment that it will develop standards for disposing of flowback based on “economically achievable technology.”
John Deutch, the prominent MIT chemistry professor and a former official at the Department of Energy under President Carter, headed an Energy Department advisory committee to evaluate these issues. In August, the committee recommended that the industry establish a national technical organization to encourage, develop and diffuse best engineering practices such as sealing off the well shafts—a technique that offshore oil and gas operators have used for years.
It also recommended that a government panel be established to measure the environmental impact of fracking and disclose what is found, using the data to improve field operations, minimize environmental impact, and incentivize the industry to adopt best practices. The industry recognizes tight control and monitoring of flowback is crucial to its future.
That the record is good so far doesn’t mean it will remain so. (Remember Deepwater Horizon.) Still, all forms of energy have their environmental drawbacks, including the favorites of environmentalists. Windmills kill birds and spoil landscapes, solar paves deserts, biofuel devastates the rainforest and raises food prices, and hydro interrupts fish migration.
And any potential hazards of fracking have to be put into the context of the critical benefits of switching to gas.
First, greater use of natural gas is a big plus in the struggle to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, since natural gas emits less than either coal or oil. Natural gas is also a substitute for gasoline or diesel in many vehicles (e.g., city buses).
Second, natural gas is already putting downward pressure on oil prices. Falling oil prices will mean substantial savings. Gas can also make us much more resilient to shocks of supply disruptions and even conflicts, eroding the power of major oil producers like the OPEC nations (recall the “oil crisis” of the 1970s) and Russia.
All this will provide powerful economic incentives to develop new technologies to substitute natural gas for gasoline. And as technology improves the efficiency of using natural gas, we can expect significant reductions in the environmental burdens of production. Nuclear, with its own hazards, will be less of an imperative.
America’s soaring natural-gas production has already helped cut our share of oil consumption met by imports to 47% last year from 60% in 2005, according to the Energy Information Administration. The shale-gas revolution, with proper safety practices, can be expected to continue this trend while addressing three longstanding concerns of the energy business: energy scarcity, energy security, and environmental risks. In a word, we have a chance to remake our energy future.
Mr. Zuckerman is chairman and editor in chief of U.S. News & World Report.
chi:
thanks ….wow. Holy Sh*T.
Real estate report (!!!!!!) from Kauai. Residential desperate with rentals barely over 1200/month for barebones and beachfront condos at 150/day. owner at pool desolate 2 nights ago because 2 bd condo in the complex now offered under 400k when it was double 3 years ago. Maintenance still thru the roof so not feasible for purchase.
Commercial space looks less desperate than a year ago.
In other news android phones cheap but can’t type on them worth a darn. iPod touch better than android kbd.
Gin almost gone so time to go home.
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morph: maybe you understand my point better about the green’s and Obama being a%%holes; I don’t really care, but given this opportunity, how do you choose between doing a thorough read through on what the really story for fracking is versus letting Russia and Iran fatten up on our money……this is arithmetic and these close minded automaton fcuks are going to piss it away…..
really = real
Chi:
You may be right. Or they will go all out on this and ship it out of the country. After all multi-national corporations do not carry about americans.
Betrayal by the greens or betrayal by government and corporations. Clot is sounding more right every day.
I hope we dont piss this away. I thought people like natural gas: its clean burning. The greens should realize that this is an opportunity: a bridge to tide us over till renewables are ready for “prime time”.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/12/big_question_as_corzine_gets_s.html
What will jon say?
#186 Morpeus
NPR did a piece on the NY Fracking public hearings. A long stream of people speaking up against it only two people speaking for it and one of those was a realtor. The problem is that while the technology has advanced to the point were we can get to the gas, the safety levels have not kept pace.. Rolling the dice with the NYC water supply on the table should change the equasion. The Gulf oil spill showed how that can work out.
#187 Freedy,
One more problem Jon has to contend with is the SOX requirement for the CEO to sign off on the accounts every year. It will be interesting to see if those regulations have any teeth.
I’m old enough to remember “midcentury modern” the first time, so perhaps that’s why the joys of that time period escape me. But you have to love Pam Kueber’s enthusiasm for it, as in this little gem that looks like Lorraine Bracco’s parents’ house in Goodfellas:
http://retrorenovation.com/2011/12/04/midcentury-modern-meets-french-provincial-in-this-perfect-1960-time-capsule-house-16-photos/
Another SOB to join Fine and Sandusky in a prison cell:
http://www.clarionledger.com/article/20111202/NEWS03/111202016/Televangelist-Bishop-Eddie-Long-s-wife-files-divorce?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CHome
BASED ON WHAT? Did you read the above article? Maybe you need to be categorized in the automaton category? I not saying that fracking should be used, but instead of public dog and pony shows, there should be rational debate.
NPR is inherently biased, so using it as a source of information is selective. Further, this comment “….. A long stream of people speaking up against it only two people speaking for it and one of those was a realtor.” …..says all you need to know about perceived value in these forums.
Fabius Maximus says:
December 4, 2011 at 9:59 am
#186 Morpeus
The problem is that while the technology has advanced to the point were we can get to the gas, the safety levels have not kept pace.
morph: re coal
WSJ
COMMODITIES
DECEMBER 3, 2011
King Coal’s Throne Under Threat
New Emissions Rules Are Likely to Roil Market but Some Investors Are Betting on Export Potential
By MATT DAY
After a decade of wrangling, new clean-air rules are slated to come into effect in the new year, upending the coal market.
U.S. environmental regulations will force power plants to reduce pollution as of Jan. 1. Although the industry is waging an effort to stop the rule’s implementation across 27 states, power plants already are ratcheting back purchases of thermal coal, which produces smog and soot-causing emissions as it is burned to produce electricity, in favor of cleaner fuels.
That has sent prices of thermal coal plummeting 13% on the New York Mercantile Exchange between the day the rule was announced on July 7 and last week’s one-year lows. While trading is relatively thin, it is used as a proxy for the billion-dollar cash market on the East Coast, where physical coal changes hands. On Friday, central Appalachian coal fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.07 a short ton.
Investors who want exposure to coal prices typically invest in coal-miner stocks. Some market watchers have urged investors to shift toward the types of coal used in steelmaking, known as metallurgical coal, or “met,” which trade at a higher price and has more exposure to China’s steel sector, an expanding market.
“We came out with a preference for met; the basic reason in our view is that prices are more likely to rebound than thermal,” said David Gagliano, an analyst with Barclays Capital.
But investors, he said, still are banking on a rebound in thermal coal, and consequently some coal producers.
Although U.S. policy makers are turning away from thermal coal, which is mined in places like West Virginia and Wyoming, coal continues to hold significant sway in U.S. and global energy markets. The U.S. is home to the world’s largest reserves of the fuel, and $33 billion of thermal coal is expected to be produced this year based on current market prices, according to Brean Murray, Carret & Co., an investment bank.
The gradual shift toward cleaner power, and falling coal prices, is forcing coal producers to seek markets elsewhere. That is likely to push investors toward coal companies that have access to export capacity.
Analysts and brokers see reasons for steady or higher coal prices in the form of demand from Asia; China and India are building coal-fired power plants at a furious pace. The U.S. long has been a net exporter of coal, but its share of the export market is rising as coal originally mined for domestic use is shipped abroad.
“What we lose in domestic demand [from emissions regulations] we’ll probably gain in exports,” said Daniel Vaughn, director of coal services with brokerage ICAP United.
Historically, Europe has relied on South Africa for imports, but higher prices in Asia have pulled that coal away, leaving the U.S. to fill the gap.
U.S. miners have been exporting coal, including thermal coal, at a near-record pace this year. Arch Coal Inc., the No. 2 U.S. miner by production, projects that U.S. exports will reach 106 million tons this year, the highest since 1991, and could increase again in 2012 as port expansions and rail terminals are completed.
That may help bolster domestic coal prices in the long term, analysts said. As more coal heads offshore, the decline in available U.S. supply will bring prices higher, they said. And brokers said U.S. coal prices are likely to find support early next year as U.S. utilities run down coal inventories and are forced to return to the market.
Another wild card in coal prices is its cleaner-burning cousin: natural gas, which has taken coal’s market share in the U.S. over the years. Natural-gas prices have been in a slump for three years due to booming production. Because utilities have some ability to switch between the two, competition between the fuels keeps prices of both in check.
In the U.S., coal’s market share was 51% in 2000 and 44% last year. Natural gas’s share was 15% in 2000 and 24% in 2010.
The new emissions standards likely will push utilities to natural gas. In the short term, the market will be able to absorb the additional demand without a significant rise in prices, but some said natural-gas prices eventually will climb as well.
On Friday, natural-gas prices declined 6.4 cents, or 1.8%, to $3.584 a million British thermal units.
“I don’t think that the natural-gas market has priced in” the new rule, said Chris Kostas, senior gas and power analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consultancy.
190 Jill
and my parents kind of grew up hating old Victorians, heh. Fashion. I like that house but as is, it’s more campy than chic. needs to be tweaked.
#192 Chi
Yes I read your article and this line jumped out.
“And any potential hazards of fracking have to be put into the context of the critical benefits of switching to gas. ”
That worries me, and the NY example shows why. Unlike Ohio or Penn, where a bad incident may impact a town of a few thousand, in the NY case you are playing with the water supply of 8 million people. That skews the equation. The energy industry may pump out all this PR saying fracking is safe, the people only have the public forums to respond. Gulf drilling operations gave the same level of assurances.
Fabius,
Can you spy the leap in logic in this paragraph?
“That the record is good so far doesn’t mean it will remain so. (Remember Deepwater Horizon.) Still, all forms of energy have their environmental drawbacks, including the favorites of environmentalists. Windmills kill birds and spoil landscapes, solar paves deserts, biofuel devastates the rainforest and raises food prices, and hydro interrupts fish migration.”
with the exception of the biofuel example, in would say that the risk side to these others by comparison is apples sand oranges. Very manipulatively presented, reads like stealthy rhetoric.
nom
29, ditto
sl
So, it looks like the OSU Cowboys are going to get scr-ewed by the BCS process.
I wonder whether the BCS asked OSU to wear garters and fishnets?
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/16342271/oklahoma-states-bcs-shot-done-in-by-company-it-doesnt-keep
Oh, Canada!
http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/07/19/the-great-white-tax-haven/
I am rethinking my decision not to make an application.
? How do any of these operations have the scope and magnitude to putrify that much water? All I hear from the your sources are good reasons to say no at this juncture, versus entering with an open mind and trying to uncover as much factual evidence as possible and posit solutions……Bear in mind….the Deepwater Horizon serves two roles: (1) fracking does not have the potential of limitless damage / DH is the benchmark for capability of mass catastrophe; (2) The Deepwater Horizon happened…..not in a vacuum, and it informs everyone in their subsequent deliberations……
Fabius Maximus says:
December 4, 2011 at 1:58 pm
#192 Chi That worries me, and the NY example shows why. Unlike Ohio or Penn, where a bad incident may impact a town of a few thousand, in the NY case you are playing with the water supply of 8 million people.
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