From the WSJ:
The housing market has turned—at last.
The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing “experts” that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing.
Nearly seven years after the housing bubble burst, most indexes of house prices are bending up. “We finally saw some rising home prices,” S&P’s David Blitzer said a few weeks ago as he reported the first monthly increase in the slow-moving S&P/Case-Shiller house-price data after seven months of declines.
Nearly 10% more existing homes were sold in May than in the same month a year earlier, many purchased by investors who plan to rent them for now and sell them later, an important sign of an inflection point. In something of a surprise, the inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen close to the normal level of six months’ worth despite all the foreclosed homes that lenders own. The fraction of homes that are vacant is at its lowest level since 2006.
The reduced inventory of unsold homes is key, says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, a housing data-analysis firm. For the past couple of years, house prices have risen in the spring and then slumped; the declining supply of houses for sale is reason to believe that won’t happen again this year, he says.
Builders began work on 26% more single-family homes in May 2012 than the depressed levels of May 2011. The stock of unsold newly built homes is back to 2005 levels. In each of the past four quarters, housing construction has added to economic growth. In the first quarter, it accounted for 0.4 percentage points of the meager 1.9% growth rate.
“Even with the overall economy slowing,” Wells Fargo Securities economists said, cautiously, in a note to clients, “the budding recovery in the housing market appears to be gradually gaining momentum.”
Economists aren’t always right, but on this at least they agree: A new Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters found 44 believe the housing market has reached its bottom; only three don’t.
My wife wants to sell in the next year or two and move to Smoke Rise. Still gotta find buyers…yo!
So did the Titanic and theAndrea Doria . It does not make me want to buy a ticket on either.
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http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/07/1-million-properties-with-foreclosure-filings-in-first-half-of-2012/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
This just in China growth slows as broke-ass WalMart shopper quit buying their crappy products! Die China Die!!!
This just in: Krugman is an @asshole.
Carry on…
Where does decoupled property tax increases figure in the price model for the NJ/NY area? Where are the f*cking experts on this one?
Krugman is an academic… Which for some correlates to @sshole.
Gary,
Duh! The only reason the taxes are so high is because of the value those towns provide. The higher the taxes, the better.
7. Simple. People are still willing to pay top dollar for homogeneous communities with good schools and either nice natural ammenities or access to the City.
Having kids is a real differentiator. Retirees or childless couples would be silly to buy in high tax areas. The rest of us are either waiting to leave cesspools of overtaxed mediocrity (see my ID “Essex”).
In my limited travels around the regions centered in Piscataway, NJ I have observed several SFH housing sites under construction. 4 to 10 houses in each spot, but none the less new construction. This also goes along with numerous For Sale signs with “Lower Price” pasted on them, so I am not sure how the new ones can be feasible. Super cheap materials and labor? Loans to a LLC that are a gamble to see if they pan out or just go quietly bankrupt with no personal funds lost? Anyway the real thing that should be done [thank you for reading this far] is to have bleachers set up for senior and unemployed persons to sit on and watch the show. Portable toilets are already there, young children could set up summer vacation lemon aid stands and then best of all the teens who go around begging for money with cans Saturday morning at Quickchecks, Pathmark, etc [all of who have nicer cell phones that the author can manage] could make a killing on the new travel uniforms they so desperately need.
Just a little thought by someone who can not afford cable and must keep his mind active.
Essex so your wife wants to pay super high taxes instead of high ones? We looked in smoke rise and ran away screaming!
krugman is any ivy league academic which is a special breed of a$$hole
From Yesterday about Location of House:
Those are horrid locations (Dover and Victory Gardens).
Not going to reveal the location we ended up buying in, but Jefferson is a good start for the purposes of this discussion. Yes, the houses are smaller than your 3K sq ft areas out in Bergen, we do not have as much stainless steel appliances, perhaps dated kitchens, but the area is quiet.
PS. I’m not cheerleading home buying in that area. We had to look at 30+ houses to find one that wasn’t a dive, a short sale / foreclosure, or about to fall in on us. This house also needs a little updating. I also expect housing to drop at least another 10% over some time period.
But I also do not view housing as an investment, 10% of sub 200K is a lot less worrisome then 10% of 400K with a metric ton of taxes to boot, and this transaction makes sense for our plans (both financial and life).
#7 Fast: And the article states that the economy is slowing, but still housing is bottoming. I don’t care how many economists say housing has bottomed; it makes no sense.
I saw the taxes/prices. It is the other way around. You get 2x the house, Decent schools, natural ammenities, yards of a larger scale.
Madison is another town we like, we simply don’t need a train.
From the looks of this i dont know that housing bottoming is a good thing.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bottom
I have been visiting this site for past 2 years or so with once every blue moon post. I do believe we are at bottom (or damn close) just by sensing the change in the regulars’ posts. Sure we have the negatives, I do believe huge risks exist, more so from the global economy. But just the past few months look how many of the regulars have either purchased, have bid on or are seriously looking. More so than I have noticed at any time.
Also property taxes are high, but renters are paying property taxes as well, just to their landlord. As well as a return on landlords capital. They don’t get to claim that deduction.
EJG
Krugman has been making a mint on the speaker circuit and writing books for years. It is his business to be in the spotlight and to be controversial. Just take a look at his house, I doubt this unabashed liberal lives in a very diverse neighborhood. Does he really care about global warming with such a big home?
$34k in taxes too better sell some more books.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/70-Lambert-Dr-Princeton-NJ-08540/64632483_zpid/
Where do you come up with most you can lose is 10%? In any investment your worst case is a 100% loss. In a homes case it is more likely like a 120% loss factoring in interest, taxes, buying expenses, reno expenses etc. I have seen people lose 99.9999999% of investment. I recall a coop complex I looked at once where coops were 40K in 1988 and in 1991 they were selling for one dollar.
200K is not that bad a loss. The average person on this site makes that much every few months. Heck Chifi will just push a few buttons on his pc this morning and make like 600K.
A Home Buyer says:
July 12, 2012 at 8:33 am
From Yesterday about Location of House:
Those are horrid locations (Dover and Victory Gardens).
Not going to reveal the location we ended up buying in, but Jefferson is a good start for the purposes of this discussion. Yes, the houses are smaller than your 3K sq ft areas out in Bergen, we do not have as much stainless steel appliances, perhaps dated kitchens, but the area is quiet.
PS. I’m not cheerleading home buying in that area. We had to look at 30+ houses to find one that wasn’t a dive, a short sale / foreclosure, or about to fall in on us. This house also needs a little updating. I also expect housing to drop at least another 10% over some time period.
But I also do not view housing as an investment, 10% of sub 200K is a lot less worrisome then 10% of 400K with a metric ton of taxes to boot, and this transaction makes sense for our plans (both financial and life).
Remember that the WSJ focus is national which is different than NJ. “It’s different here” i.e. tax issues and a logjam of foreclosures
jj: get off the rag….you are pissed all your callables are gone…should have bought bullets….
I doubt any of those economists will argue that the decline will not resume again once they raise rates, or when economy goes back into recession again, some of those same economists are says we are already in a recession. We are also facing a fiscal crisis at all levels of government that will in many ways make us as bad off as Europe. Housing has bottomed on a precipice, and now we will need wings to fly.
I am beginning to think it is an imaginary bottom. Sellers who are underwater, holding out for short sale, trying to avoid a bk and banks with shadow inventory, or holding out for higher than market prices on their short sale approvals and REOs in order to minimize loss has curtailed inventory. The buyers out there are desperate to buy but they aint bailing out people they want to pay market prices. Once capitulation of sellers take place and they start selling it may be like white flight in the bronx in the early 1970s, sellers tripping over each other to sell. Kinda like a virgin getting married, she held out for 24 years but like a basket ball fan in the 1980s once you have seen the “magic johnson” you just cant stop.
EJG says:
July 12, 2012 at 9:05 am
I have been visiting this site for past 2 years or so with once every blue moon post. I do believe we are at bottom (or damn close) just by sensing the change in the regulars’ posts. Sure we have the negatives, I do believe huge risks exist, more so from the global economy. But just the past few months look how many of the regulars have either purchased, have bid on or are seriously looking. More so than I have noticed at any time.
Also property taxes are high, but renters are paying property taxes as well, just to their landlord. As well as a return on landlords capital. They don’t get to claim that deduction.
EJG
JJ?
Hamptons Mansion Hosts Illicit Parties
Hamptons, money scams, rented real estate, dumb young kids… Its all your bag, baby… Yeah!
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/07/12/freeh.report.pdf?hpt=hp_t1
http://thefreehreportonpsu.com/
For those interested in reading the Freeh Report.
Actually I am ok, last two summers munis had a big July as last two summers had huge redemptions in big interest payment months. I had like 140 cash sitting around in case I need to pull trigger on a REO or something, last week of june I went 100% into munis with that cash and went to almost zero cash. Plan to replace that cash on July 25 when I get a huge pile of Trups due so for four weeks I will be 100% invested.
Munis have had a pretty good July so far. When I get within T+3 of July 25 BAC Trup Call I might jump ahead again and see what Trups or sub bank debt has not been called and jump in. Banks only have the 90 day window to call Trups and they have to give 30 day notice on calling a Trup, banks may not have enough dry powder to call all Trups in this capital event. Hoping to get some Trups slightly above par with a decent coupon, then pray banks dont call them in this capital event and I can ride some more decent yield. We are in low yield till 2015. I will know if I get the bank reo in next week or so or whether bank is going to jerk my chain around a bit, if my chain is being jerked I will go back in and not even leave dry powder. I have way to many kicker, high coupon callable junk and Trups that did not have a call to leave too much cash on side. I can easily go 100% back in if REO deal falls apart and build up another 140 in a matter of weeks.
chicagofinance says:
July 12, 2012 at 9:22 am
jj: get off the rag….you are pissed all your callables are gone…should have bought bullets….
I’d like to shout out to ChiF$ck. Invite her to suck my c@ck.
Krugman again calling for massive deficit spending, this time he does not have the taking heads on CNBC making fun of him. At least he admits a currency crisis is possible, but besides the Fed where will the trillions in annual deficit spending come from, who will loan us the money?
“In order to avoid a full-on depression, the U.S. government needs to ignore the size of the deficit and start spending to stimulate the economy, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman tells us.
“Somebody has to spend more than their income, and, for the time being, that has to be the government,” says Krugman.
But what about the deficit, that so many people are concerned about. After all, Krugman was something of a deficit hawk during the Bush administration.
He notes two things: One is that the deficit spending under Bush was totally wasteful, and that that should have been time to pay down debts. But he also says he’s learned from watching the US and Japan that it’s much harder for a country to have a debt crisis than he previously appreciated.
“My thinking has evolved,” says Krugman. “If you haven’t updated your views in the face of new experiences, you’re not doing your job”
The fact that the US has its own currency makes a big difference, as evidenced by the crisis in Europe, where the countries without their own currencies are getting into so much trouble.
He still thinks a debt crisis is theoretically possible, but the evidence of the last several years shows it’s much harder than he realized.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-on-the-deficit-2012-7
2 Tix to Chelsea FC v. PSG at Yankee Stadium — Pipe up if interested and I’ll post a contact e-mail and/or via Grim.
I watched the video of Krugman yesterday. They must have edited out the part where they get into an argument because the discussion seemed to be pretty civil. Schwartz made his case and then Krugman countered. People say he was visibly aggravated but I saw him on CNN a few weeks ago, I think that is partly his normal demeanor. He’s just a shifty nervous dude.
I’ve heard other people speak about government’s role in the economy and I agree with some of what he says and disagree with other things. When I saw him on CNBC yesterday, for example, he said he would tolerate a s much as 50% of GDP as government spending. That’s just ridiculous.
However, he made the point that we should have been reducing deficits and debt during the Bush years……a point I agree with. This way, we could borrow and spend now to get ourselves out of the bad part of a business cycle. It reminded me of a speaker who quoted George Washington. The speaker used the George Washington quote to make the point that sovergn debt has a place in this world, but it needs to be used sparingly and wisely. Basically, you save during good times, and spend during the bad ones. Borrow to get yourself out of an emergency like a War, depression, or deep recession.
I can’t help but feeling that maybe both sides are right, its just that their timing sucks.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices rose for a sixth session on Thursday, pushing 10-year yields towards their all-time lows.
This market is so bi-polar that if on July 3rd 2012 you had choice between 30 year treasuries and stocks, you would have said JC that yield is so low let me go with stocks, meanwhile with treasuries rising 6 days in a row and stocks falling almost all 6 days you already would have incurred big loss.
100% far and away biggest winner this year is 30 year treasury Z coupon bonds followed by Bank Sub and Trup Debt, hardly what any of us would have thought as little as three months ago when stocks were killing bonds YTD.
RE has been a big fat dog this year. If one closed on a house on July 3rd and sold their fixed income to do it, just six days later they would of had huge opportunity cost lost from bonds and they would have been paying too much for mortgage. Amazing. Stocks, Bonds and RE used to be long term investments where at best we looked at a quarterly paper statement, today you rent them all and any of three can turn on a dime into losses or gains
30-year-mortgage rate falls to record low of 3.56%
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304299704577504631625599136.html?mod=ITP_opinion_2
Wonderful housing idea. Seizing private mortgages to sell to other investors
As a very important source of strength and security, cherish public credit. One method of preserving it is, to use it as sparingly as possible; avoiding occasions of expense by cultivating peace, but remembering also that timely disbursements to prepare for danger frequently prevent much greater disbursements to repel it; avoiding likewise the accumulation of debt, not only by shunning occasions of expense, but by vigorous exertions in time of peace to discharge the debts, which unavoidable wars may have occasioned, not ungenerously throwing upon posterity the burthen, which we ourselves ought to bear.
GEORGE WASHINGTON, Farewell Address, Sep. 17, 1796
Reason this gold towns have $18K property taxes is to keep you peasants away.Only rock stars can apply.
#29 Juice: Yesterday’s minutes from the Fed, tells me more easing is coming IMO, contrary to what some of the officials have said. Plus those minutes were from 3 weeks ago, prior to June’s miserable jobs report.
The End Is Nigh (NASCAR Edition):
Woman watched NASCAR with deceased man for over a year
By Nick Bromberg | From The Marbles – 12 hours ago.. .
Many of us like watching races in the company of other NASCAR fans, but Linda Chase of Jackson, Mich., might have taken that just a bit too far.
For the past 10 years, she lived together with Charles Zigler. And when Zigler passed away, they continued to live and watch NASCAR together for approximately 18 months until authorities found Zigler’s body on Friday.
We’ll let the Jackson Citizen Patriot take it from here:
Zigler, known as Charlie, died naturally, Linda Chase said. “He just fell asleep.” She kept him in his chair after he died, keeping him dressed and cleaned. His body did not stink, she said. She would talk to him and watch NASCAR races on television with him.
Jackson officials believe that Zigler, who would have been 67 or 68, died around Christmas of 2010. That was 18 months ago. When Zigler’s family members went to check on him after not hearing from him for a while, they went to the police, who found Zigler’s body in his chair.
Chase kept Zigler’s body around for more than NASCAR races, however. She’s admitted to cashing his social security checks, saying “I’m probably going to prison.” She’s currently being investigated. When family members, with whom Zigler did not have a close relationship, tried to contact him, Chase would tell them that he was gone. She told the paper that “It’s not that I’m heartless. It’s just that after so many bad things happen to you, I don’t know.”
“I didn’t want to be alone. He was the only guy who was ever nice to me.”
So, next time you have friends over for a race, check on them every once in a while. Yeah, they could be just taking a nap because it’s Pocono, but you never know.
#38 When Zigler’s family members went to check on him after not hearing from him for a while, they went to the police, who found Zigler’s body in his chair
After not hearing from him in a while??? 18 months!! That is not my ideas of a while!
10 yr 1.483 how much lower can it go? Dealers are hoarding.Who is selling?
re: #37 – 3B – He did QE before the midterms but this time may be different. He has been calling for Congress to get their house in order for a while now and he means it.
Only one european country actually went through with their austerity, and that was Iceland. They told the banksters to go F off; they protected the depositors; they cut back government spending to align with taxes (OMG what a horrible idea!)… and what happened? They had a nasty QUICK recession and are growing again.
Iceland – there is your test. Neither the US nor Spain will follow Iceland’s correct playbook. And it is not austerity to go back to levels of GDP and spending PRE-bubble. What about the fact that the bubble was a HUGE distortion do you not understand? Just like it is not “deflation” to return prices back to pre-bubble times. It is called reverting to the mean.
The FED bought our debt? Is that what you call creating/printing money?
199.yo says:
July 12, 2012 at 6:08 am
Joyce,
European style austerity vs American style middle keynesian will be tested.I say middle Keynesian because we did not go into extreme austerity.The Fed guaranteed our debt.They bought debt.Investors know they will be paid.Spending has been down but not extreme austerity.They waited until the dust settles before dealing with higher taxes ang austerity measures.Spain will have too much pain that what they are doing will tail spin more their economy.Where will revenue come from?Tax more the people that are not making money.How much more can you give when you are unemployed? A big test of keynesian vs austerity
Brian,
Krugman is an @ss clown. Yes, he is a liberal and hates the republicans… that’s probably the only reason why he was opposed to the policies during the Bush administration. My point is that if the FED tightened credit during the boom times of the 2000’s, the economy would not have been (fake) growing as fast as it did and if they didn’t deficit spend plus raised taxes there would have been no money to pay down debt… and Krugman would have been arguing for stimulus/spending to solve the problem.
All the keynesians know is SPEND SPEND SPEND. “Let’s boost aggregrate demand in the short to medium term and worry about the debt in the long term.” But the long-term never gets here because the fake growth goes away as soon as the stimulus stops and then Krugman wants more spending and he’ll reassure us that we’ll get out fiscal house in order over the long term. Do I sound like I’m repeating myself… good.
31.Brian says:
July 12, 2012 at 9:58 am
I watched the video of Krugman yesterday. They must have edited out the part where they get into an argument because the discussion seemed to be pretty civil. Schwartz made his case and then Krugman countered. People say he was visibly aggravated but I saw him on CNN a few weeks ago, I think that is partly his normal demeanor. He’s just a shifty nervous dude.
I’ve heard other people speak about government’s role in the economy and I agree with some of what he says and disagree with other things. When I saw him on CNBC yesterday, for example, he said he would tolerate a s much as 50% of GDP as government spending. That’s just ridiculous.
However, he made the point that we should have been reducing deficits and debt during the Bush years……a point I agree with. This way, we could borrow and spend now to get ourselves out of the bad part of a business cycle. It reminded me of a speaker who quoted George Washington. The speaker used the George Washington quote to make the point that sovergn debt has a place in this world, but it needs to be used sparingly and wisely. Basically, you save during good times, and spend during the bad ones. Borrow to get yourself out of an emergency like a War, depression, or deep recession.
I can’t help but feeling that maybe both sides are right, its just that their timing sucks.
#41 Agreed, but I still think he does another QE by September. He has the cover he needs.
OT: Anyone who drives in the NYC via car or bus, be advised that starting tomorrow, one lane on the Cross Bronx will be closed until Labor Day. Traffice nightmare!!!
Iceland Unemployment RateThe unemployment rate in Iceland was last reported at 7.1 in March of 2012. Historically, from 2001 until 2012, Iceland Unemployment Rate averaged 3.6900 Percent reaching an all time high of 9.3000 Percent in February of 2010 and a record low of 0.8000 Percent in September of 2007. The unemployment rate can be defined as the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force. This page includes a chart with historical data for Iceland Unemployment Rate.
Iceland used their own currency to sell bonds which other pigs don’t have the luxury
Iceland, a small country on Europe’s periphery that received an international bailout, has something others in that category don’t: access to international bond markets.
The country sold a $1 billion bond last week to mainly U.S.-based investors.
That Iceland is able to successfully issue its own sovereign bond is a sign that the country is now on the road to recovery even as the European debt crisis keeps countries like Ireland and Portugal locked out of international markets.
And unlike these other debt-laden peripheral countries, Iceland retains monetary control over its own economy. While Iceland is geographically bound to Europe, it isn’t in the euro zone, instead using the Icelandic krona. Investors link the country to Scandinavia rather than the machinations happening further south.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304070304577395143595111370.html
The Real Class Warfare is Baby Boomers Vs. Younger Americans
Effing Locust Generation
joyce [43],
God, I like you! I really, really like you! :)
Iceland has a population of like 300,000 people. That’s not much more than Newark, NJ. Are we really comparing their economy to ours?
http://fashionista.com/2012/07/exclusive-american-apparels-new-advanced-model-jacky-reveals-her-age-responds-to-criticism-and-tells-us-how-her-controversial-campaign-came-about/
good grief this is what its come to
she;’s a mutt
(50)
Brian,
Please explain to me how the laws of mathematics cease to exist when you go from small numbers to large numbers.
Brian [50];
Iceland has a population of like 300,000 people. That’s not much more than Newark, NJ. Are we really comparing their economy to ours?
Of course not. We’re in much worse condition. Cue Meat.
It is kind alike women in minvans will drive out of their way to get gas at a cheaper place to save 5 cents but have no problem bidding and extra 25k to get their dreamhouse. Somehow whether you pay 550K or 575K for a house is less important then getting gas at 3.59 a gallon instead of 3.62 a gallon
joyce says:
July 12, 2012 at 11:18 am
(50)
Brian,
Please explain to me how the laws of mathematics cease to exist when you go from small numbers to large numbers.
Iceland has 150K women all of which is smoking hot, NJ is such a dump snooki is considered good looking.
Anon E. Moose says:
July 12, 2012 at 11:20 am
Brian [50];
Iceland has a population of like 300,000 people. That’s not much more than Newark, NJ. Are we really comparing their economy to ours?
Of course not. We’re in much worse condition. Cue Meat.
Direct tv losing Jersey Shore.What to do?
raging bull jj says:
July 12, 2012 at 11:22 am
Iceland has 150K women all of which is smoking hot, NJ is such a dump snooki is considered good looking.
You know what Joyce you are right. I should have bought a house in Iceland in 2006. NJ sucks.
Iceland forgives mortgage debt to save its economy
http://www.realnews24.com/iceland-forgives-mortgage-debt-to-save-its-economy/
I think we should by JJ a gift… a brand new dictionary with the word ‘overcompensating’ highlighted in yellow and double underlined.
JJ, don’t be afraid to come out and be who you truly are. Your friends & family will understand.
The difference is, there are 300,000 oppinions in Iceland vs 3 million in the US. It takes forever for us to decide what to do. There’s neverending debates….By the time we act, in the US, it’s usually too late.
Helluva lot less bureaucracy to fight through…..
52.joyce says:
July 12, 2012 at 11:18 am
(50)
Brian,
Please explain to me how the laws of mathematics cease to exist when you go from small numbers to large numbers.
“You could safely say that Iceland holds the world record in household debt relief,” Lars Christensen, chief emerging markets economist at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, toldBloomberg News. “Iceland followed the textbook example of what is required in a crisis. Any economist would agree with that.”
59 – my mistake….300 Million in the US
“The lesson to be learned from Iceland’s crisis is that if other countries think it’s necessary to write down debts, they should look at how successful the 110 percent agreement was here,” Thorolfur Matthiasson, an economics professor at theUniversity of Icelandin Reykjavik, toldBloomberg. “It’s the broadest agreement that’s been undertaken.”
He went on to say that without the agreement, homeowners would have succumbed to their debt after the ratio of obligation to income skyrocketed to 240 percent in 2008.
Iceland’s $13 billion annual economy declined 6.7 percent the following year, in 2009, but has since rebounded and will expand by 2.4 percent this year and in 2013, the OECD estimated. Meanwhile, in the rest of debt-ridden Europe, the economy will collectively expand by a paltry 0.2 percent this year and only 1.6 percent the next, OECD estimates said in November.
Housing is now just about 3 percent below values in September 2008, just before the financial collapse. So improved is the nation’s economic and fiscal outlook thatFitch Ratingsin February raised the country toinvestment gradewith a stable outlook, stating the country’s
“unorthodox crisis policy response has succeeded.”
Iceland is more Keynesian than Austerity
Iceland performed debt relief by restructuring and liquidation.
No one else will do that.
You are not saying that… you are calling for more “controlled inflation” to ease the debt burden away. Inflation that will never make its way into the average person’s pay and therefore will NOT reduce their debt burden (even if it’s at a fixed rate) and will only drive up the cost of their food & energy. Sounds like a party!
The test is still going on.You can hate Keynesians now.Let us see who proves right.
In good times you save in bad times you spend
The trouble is…we spent in both.
Where does that leave us now?
65.yo says:
July 12, 2012 at 11:47 am
The test is still going on.You can hate Keynesians now.Let us see who proves right.
In good times you save in bad times you spend
#65 In good times you save in bad times you spend
Well that explains the mess we are in. I offer my correction.
In good times you spend, but before you spend, you save, for the rainy day. So, that when it comes you can get through it.
When bad times come you have the funds to weather it, but you cut spending to ensure the funds you saved will carry you through, until the good times come again.
52. Joyce = numbskull
Joyce 58 I was thinking more along the lines of a fleshlight since being married can’t compare to the milk and honey days of being a single bond pirate.
From the article Moose posted at 48:
“Then chew on this: One of the primary ways that President Obama (born 1961) is making the so-called Affordable Care Act affordable is by having you foot more than your share of the bill.
“Think it through for a moment, especially given that younger voters seem to really dig him. The younger you are, the less likely you are to need health care, much less insurance (there is a difference). The smart move for most generally healthy younger people is to take out a catastrophic coverage plan that would cover you in the event of a big accident. Thanks to Obamacare, you’ve got to get covered, either by your parents’ plan or otherwise. The predictable result is that plans for younger people are getting more expensive precisely at the moment they are required by law (finally, a case where correlation meets causation!). That all plans are going to have to conform to higher-than-before benefit schedules ain’t helping things either. Some colleges are dropping student plans as a result.
“And just wait until those price-capped government-run health-care exchanges finally get set up. By law, the exchanges can’t charge their oldest beneficiaries more than three times what they charge their youngest beneficiaries. That’s despite the actuarial reality that the older group costs insurers six times as much. So you’re helping balance the books there, too. Welcome to community rating, kids.
“Another way you’re helping balance the books: It’ll be your future earnings that will pay the taxes to cover the massive amount of debt that local, state, and federal governments have rung up over the past few decades. Even before the Great Recession, the feds were spending like a drunken sailor (no disrespect to drunken sailors). Nowadays, the feds are borrowing something like 40 cents of every dollar they’re spending. That bill is going to come due eventually and when it does, the people who spent it will be long dead. And so will the economy, suffering from a “debt hangover” that all the Advil in the world won’t help. We’re getting perilously close to the debt-to-GDP ratios that economists Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff say will significantly retard economic growth for an average of 23 years.”
Agreed and that’s pretty much the point I was trying to make @ 31
The tradgedy of our current situation is that we (USA) did not follow Washington’s advice (see post 35) and spent and borrowed our way through the good time too.
67.3B says:
July 12, 2012 at 11:53 am
#65 In good times you save in bad times you spend
Well that explains the mess we are in. I offer my correction.
In good times you spend, but before you spend, you save, for the rainy day. So, that when it comes you can get through it.
When bad times come you have the funds to weather it, but you cut spending to ensure the funds you saved will carry you through, until the good times come again.
“In good times you save in bad times you spend”
But, one does not spend in bad times if during good times one also spent. The real key to being able to spend to get out of a recession is having run surpluses and paid down prior debt BEFORE firing up the spending to help juice the economy when things slow down. We have been readlining our engine for many years and now the liberals want us to rev the engine even more; it is insane.
Yea, what they said.
What would Mitt or Barrack do?
HARBOUR HERO Dog overboard!
Stewart Johnson’s pet dog, Bear, was not aboard the family yacht when it returned to the marina from a day at the beach at Boca Grande. After a frantic search of the vessel for the beloved border collie mix, Steve Dobkins, Key West Harbour’s resident towboat captain, got the distress call. “I knew to find him safe would need a miracle,” Stewart Johnson later said. As the spectacular colors of a Key West sunset faded into night, Dobkins proved to be that miracle. According to reporter John DeSantis of The Citizen:
Dobkins threw several bottles out to judge how the current was moving. “When I saw how the current and wind were reacting, I went to the west about a mile and stopped and turned my motor off and just drifted with the wind and the current, wherever it was going to take me,” Dobkins said. That was about 11:30 p.m. His searchlight caught a glisten and a glow, and Dobkins began to call out “Bear. Bear.” “I could see it for a second, just like you would see an animal in the woods, and then I knew it’s that dog. He was maybe 100 yards from me,” said Dobkins, who drew closer. He dove in, grabbed the dog, and got a very tired little pooch into his boat.
Absolutely amazing! As Stewart told The Citizen’s John DeSantis, “Only in Key West would you see these wonderful people drop what they were doing and not give up.”
Chi,
You said:
you are pissed all your callables are gone…should have bought bullets
There’s a type of bond called a bullet?
another under contract in The ‘Fly:
Est Cls Dt: 8/15/2012 UCD: 7/11/2012 DOM: 87
(65)
Yo,
I have a century of bubbles that prove keynesian theory in practice does not work.
(dare I)
Any questions?
Re #25 Moose – My kid and her 50 friends got scammed by that guy for
10K – doubt we will see that $$ again.
And who was in charge the last 3 decades of good fortunes?Start from Reagan
http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/debt_deficit_history
Shore Guy says:
July 12, 2012 at 12:03 pm
“In good times you save in bad times you spend”
But, one does not spend in bad times if during good times one also spent. The real key to being able to spend to get out of a recession is having run surpluses and paid down prior debt BEFORE firing up the spending to help juice the economy when things slow down. We have been readlining our engine for many years and now the liberals want us to rev the engine even more; it is insane.
Grat!
U*rinating Tourists Drive Jersey Shore Town to Seek Curfew
For Dave Cavagnaro, life as a full- time resident along the New Jersey shore came with small headaches he expected: scant weekend parking, congestion and the occasional piece of litter.
Nothing prepared him for what is going on these days in his hometown of Point Pleasant Beach, about 90 minutes by car from Manhattan. Public u*rination. Beer bottles tossed on his lawn. Screaming crowds pouring onto his street after the 2 a.m. bar closing. He’s even caught a couple having sex against the side of his house.
The town, which has 5,000 year-round residents and as many as 50,000 tourists a day in the summer, is seeking to shut bars at midnight. The move highlights a long-running tension on New Jersey’s 127-mile coastline: its pleasures put some locals and tourists at odds. Nearby Sea Girt, Belmar and Spring Lake all imposed earlier bar closings in recent years to control unruly behavior immortalized in the MTV reality show “Jersey Shore.”
“People say ‘Why’d you move so close to the boardwalk and to the bars?’ but it wasn’t always like this,” Cavagnaro, 63, a retired French teacher, said during an interview in his home on Parkway, about three blocks from the boardwalk.
“Crowds, tourists and the occasional garbage I expect,” Cavagnaro said. “I don’t expect that when I go to bed at night I have to worry about the safety of myself and my house.”
Beer Money
A town ordinance that was set to take effect July 1 would have ordered midnight closings or forced establishments to pay a fee for staying open later to defray the cost of additional police. The state’s liquor regulator on June 29 blocked the law while bars challenge it in court.
“Should the appellants prevail after a full hearing, there is no method of redress for them to recoup the financial losses they would incur,” Michael Halfacre, director of the state Division of Alcoholic Beverage Control, wrote in his decision. “I am also convinced that the ordinance in question has the potential for a negative ripple effect on other endeavors and enterprises in and outside of the borough.”
The beach and the 14-week summer season that brings out-of- towners to Point Pleasant’s cottages, some that rent for as much as $4,500 a week, have been lucrative for the town. A 2007 study found tourism generated $11.8 million of annual revenue for the borough, more than six times the $1.9 million it cost to support the industry.
Family-Friendly
Still, year-round residents shouldn’t have to shoulder the expense of policing and cleaning the town’s boardwalk area, said Mayor Vincent Barrella, who is seeking an emergency appeal of Halfacre’s decision. The behavior threatens Point Pleasant’s reputation as a family-friendly resort, he said.
The town, which has an annual budget of $13 million, has to add 88 police officers to its 21-member force in the summer at a cost of $398,000, plus spend another $57,000 on seasonal parking enforcement officers, Barrella said. Last July, the borough council approved $95,000 for increased patrols that will be applied to this year’s property-tax bills, he said.
Cavagnaro said tourists’ behavior has devolved during his 12 years as a resident. In recent years, he’s had a glass door panel broken and two cement lions stolen off his front lawn. He said a neighbor awoke in the middle of the night to find intoxicated visitors in his pool. He keeps seeing naked people.
Litter, Vomiting
Along Niblick Street, where Barrella lives, crushed red plastic cups and empty cigarette packages sit in the gutters in front of homes with tidy lawns. Peeled-off beer labels decorate the grass. Residents have complained of fighting and vomiting.
Bar patrons relieve themselves on private property so frequently that the borough was forced recently to amend its public-u*rination ordinance to include de*fecation, Barrella said. He called 2011 a “bad summer’ and said the community is seeking to avoid a repeat. The town has banned most on-street parking near the beachfront bars between midnight and 6 a.m.
‘‘It’s only 5,000 people, but it’s a permanent population and this is our home,” Barrella said in a telephone interview.
Barrella and Marilou Halvorsen, marketing director for Jenkinson’s Boardwalk, both said they don’t expect the issue to be resolved until after the summer.
$800,000 Offer
Jenkinson’s, the borough’s largest taxpayer, is a private company that owns most of Point Pleasant’s 1.5-mile boardwalk and employs 16 percent of its wage-earners. Its properties include an amusement park, aquarium and carnival games in addition to two bars that can hold a collective 2,500 people.
Halvorsen said rental-house parties, not the bars, are the source of many of the problems, including the trash and the noise. She said the town rejected an offer from her company and Martell’s Tiki Bar to pay $800,000 over five years to cover the costs of increased policing. Jenkinson’s pays to haul all of its own trash, along with all that is generated on the boardwalk, she said.
“When a community is based on tourism, what you do to one business is going to affect all businesses,” Halvorsen said in a July 10 telephone interview.
Point Pleasant is 10 miles (16 kilometers) north of Seaside Heights, home of “Jersey Shore,” which has followed the rowdy, randy, drunken escapades of housemates including Nicole “Snooki” Polizzi and Michael “The Situation” Sorrentino.
Welcome to Seaside
Seaside, which allows bars to stay open until 3 a.m., issued a statement that “everyone is welcome” last month after Point Pleasant passed its early closing ordinance. The town warned revelers not to drive drunk and said all laws would be enforced.
Jenkinson’s puts private security, including 50 to 60 off- duty police officers, in the streets at closing time to monitor events, Halvorsen said. Enforcement is better than the “drastic step of curtailing the operations of the businesses,” she said.
John “Boe” Siclari, a 49-year-old New Jersey Transit supervisor from Lyndhurst who said he comes to Point Pleasant on most weekends in the summer, had advice for both sides in the dispute: “Everyone needs to lighten up.”
“It’s part of the Jersey Shore and it’s just something that towns on the Jersey Shore have to live with,” Siclari said as he was exiting his car to go to the beach the afternoon of July 9. “Even if they close at midnight, people are going to do the same stuff. It’s not a time thing.”
Yo. Who is in control of spending. Oh! That’s right — congress. And, who controlled congress until 1995? Oh, that’s right, Democrats. And, when did we last have a surplus? By golly, it is when the Republicans took over congress. To be fair, Clinton was president and the divided government worked to help control spending; however, divided government does not seem to control spending when a Republican has the White House and the Democrats have the congress as the Democrats are very good at selling the idea that Republican presidential attempts to cut spending is an attack on the poor and middle class and, to their shame, Republican presidents have not pushed back against Democratic spending.
“He’s even caught a couple having sex against the side of his house. ”
They did it on top of my car. After that, the side of a house seems an improvement.
Shore [83];
Flood lights come on just as he hits them with the hose — bonus points for getting it all on video (++ for nightvision for a little pre-illumination view?). That’ll kill the couple’s mood, the guy’s wood, and their collective buzz. Problem solved and instant YouTube celebrity.
Con’t [84];
The key is planning in advance. Revenge is always better because you have time to plan it.
Post-crash debrief of a carrier pilot who punched out immediately after a bad cat shot off the deck:
Cmdr — When did you decide to eject?
Pilot — Seven years ago during training, but this was the first time the situation required it.
moose that is how I would handle it. The thing is people today have no shame and woudl probably welcome their new found celebrity. Seriously WTF happened to any sense of decency. At least when we were kids we had the curtousy to use cars or public restrooms.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The Treasury Department sold $13 billion in 30-year bonds 30_YEAR -1.18% on Thursday at a record-low yield of 2.58%
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/official-taxi-fare-rise-17-september-1st-increase-6-years-dough-drivers-article-1.1113009
Please keep you car at home
Ok given topic lets give top 3 strangest places you ever did it. I will start
1) Short after that kennedy nephew got charged with rape in florida, a freeky girl I knew while on vacation in florida wanted to do it in the same spot, which we trespassed and did do it, apparantly that was freeky even for me.
2) On the jogging track of a park in daylight, while people were jogging, some bozo did two laps around me while I was waxing the shaved beaver
3) On a chairlift, I damm near fell off and froze my nuts. Mission accomplished
Heck here is few bonus ones, in MSG during a Ranger Islander game, conference room table Marriot Marquis in times square and LIRR. Same girl all three. This chick had a big thing about doing it in public, always wore dress,
1 – on your kitchen counter about 20 minutes ago
2 – in your backyard while wearing your clothes and your wife yelling obscenities at me
3 – in the backseat of your cherished Mercedes (sorry about the stains)
Thinking the same…..
Fast Eddie says:
July 12, 2012 at 11:13 am
joyce [43],
God, I like you! I really, really like you! :)
Old 2008 Financial Crisis Joke:
What is the capital of Iceland?
$2
scribe:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bulletbond.asp#axzz20QovkVoN
scribe: was also looking for clot to comment, so I went out of my way to use the term…
bullet bonds are not bullet proof
On a muni secondary above market bonds they only pay at par at maturity and that loss is not tax deducatable
In the case of my BAC Trups some I got in 1999 at 78 with a 8 coupon, same they were long term callable bonds the gain is almost all at the 15% tax bracket. Even if a bullet bond is bought below par, if you hold to maturity whole thing is taxed at ordinary income.
Right now historically long term investment grade corporates are at all time highs for inflation risk. Like the 2011 sale on Munis and Trups the sale on long term non callable investment grade bonds is long over.
SL Convertibles dont have back seats, kitchen counters is so played out and why are you wearing clothes?
Now my friend who is a much bigger player than me once did a girl the morning of her wedding and blew a load in her mouth so he could giggle at the church when he watched the groom kiss the bride. I need stuff like this, plus it all has to be true. Al Gore controls the internet you know.
Mrs. JJ’s Lover says:
July 12, 2012 at 1:34 pm
1 – on your kitchen counter about 20 minutes ago
2 – in your backyard while wearing your clothes and your wife yelling obscenities at me
3 – in the backseat of your cherished Mercedes (sorry about the stains)
I have a question: Does anyone know if all those illegal aliens that were given political asylum, voting rights, amnesty, carte blanche, silver spoons and a golden parachute by King Barack will also get full Oblamacare as well? It my be a silly question but I figured I’d ask.
The banksters have always been in charge
79.yo says:
July 12, 2012 at 12:19 pm
And who was in charge the last 3 decades of good fortunes?Start from Reagan
Jeez Gary…i made a phone call to get you that damn job – believe me, they wanted to hire the chick with the big hoo-hoos – because I thought that might get you to stop all the whining.
And why cherry pick a starting point? When is the last time the amount of debt has decreased? (and I don’t mean as a % of GDP)
Reagan yearsReagan, however, had failed to get the country out of the continued recession. Starting in 1980 and again after the 1982 midterm elections, President Reagan worked with a split Congress with a Republican majority after the 1980 Senate elections and a Democratic majority after the 1980 House elections. The conservatives (whom Reagan backed) lost a substantial number of seats in Congress in 1982.[101] By early 1983, however, the recession had ended and Reagan was re-elected President, in 1984, with a record-breaking 525 electoral votes.[102] The Republicans’ six-year control over the Senate ended in 1986, after numerous issues (the Iran Contra Affair,[103] unpopular support for Reagan’s aid to the Nicaragua Contras,[104] the cost of the Star Wars weapons program,[104] farming woes[104] and trade gaps)[104] damaged the Reagan Administration’s image. By 1988, however, Reagan was redeemed of these scandals and Republican Vice President George H.W. Bush won the 1988 US Presidential election by a landslide.[105]
[edit] Clinton yearsIn the 1992 US Presidential election, Democratic candidate Bill Clinton defeated President Bush (whose image was damaged by economic woes)[106] while the Democratic Party had a majority after both the Senate elections and Representatives elections of 1992. This shifted the balance of power in favor of the Democrats once again.
The Republicans, however, finally returned to a majority position, in both houses of Congress, in the election of 1994, thanks in part to: 1) President Clinton’s unpopular attempt to establish universal health care;[107] and 2) Republican Congressman Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America,[108] which was promoted heavily by the entire Republican Party.[109] By the 1996 US Presidential Election, Clinton’s economic programs prevailed[citation needed] and the President was elected to a second term in a landslide victory. Despite Clinton’s huge victory, however, the Democrats were still not able to regain control of either the US House of Representatives or Senate
Republicans re-establish control in CongressFor the most part between 1995 and 2007, the Republicans controlled both houses. In the wake of the unpopularity of President Clinton’s impeachment trial, the 107th Congress (2001–2003) saw the Democrats and Republicans split control of the US Senate 50–50, ending effectively tied;[112] Despite this gain in the Senate for the Democrats, Republican George W Bush would go on to defeat Democrat nominee Al Gore (who arguably lost some appeal among the general public by refusing to let Clinton campaign on his behalf)[113][114][115] As a result of Bush’s victory, Republican Vice-President Dick Cheney did have the tie-breaking vote in the Senate during the first four months of 2001 as well. In May 2001, a Republican US Senator from the state of Vermont, Jim Jeffords, ended his affiliation with the Republican Party, following a dispute with Bush’s tax cut proposals,[116] and became an Independent.[117] After departing from the Republican Party, Jeffords also agreed to caucus with the Democrats and control of the Senate switched back to the Democrats once again.[118]
The 108th Congress (2003–2005) saw the Senate return to a GOP majority of 51–49, as Republican President George W Bush had gained popularity for his fight against Al Qaeda terrorists and broad tax cuts.[132] In 2006, opposition to Bush’s continuation of the Iraq War had grown to new heights.[133] As a result, the 110th Congress saw the Democrats regain majority control of both the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives.[133] This shifted again; in 2010, after two years of a sour economy with high unemployment, Republicans regained control of the House, although Democrats kept control in the Senate; exit polls suggested voters were dissatisfied with President Obama as well as the Congress.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_Congress
You asked for a strong dollar here is the effect.More job cuts
Strong dollar hurting U.S. bottom lines
Multinationals bolster effort to fend off impact of a strong greenback
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/strong-dollar-hurting-us-bottom-lines-2012-07-12?dist=countdown
Oblama [99],
Dude, it’s a private sector gig. That doesn’t exist in your s0cialist handbook. The only thing you know is fundraisers (over 200 and counting), golf (over 100 rounds) and vacations (17 and counting).
102
We do not have a strong USD. You can’t with 0% interest rates. Stop manipulating the currency and let rates rise which would encourage savings and domestic as well as foreign investment here in this country which will lead to jobs.
You can’t fix problems caused by several decades of inflation/pull-forward demand by just tinkering with the currency a bit. The malinvestment must be restructured and/or liquidated and then the economy can have real growth.
Who is going to save and invest with 0% interest rates?
Production must precede consumption (or redistribution).
Inflation / Proposals to arbitrarily distribute CLAIMS on production (which is what money/currency is) are just as misguided as the current system that encouraged the creation of multiple claims for the same inderlying asset (which is what happens with the emission of unbacked credit).
#04 And more easing to come.
Unfortunately, I agree. And with ZIRP, the easing never stops.
re #105 – saving face is more important, just ask the Japanese.
Chi – How did you miss this one?
The end is neigh Hogging Edition!
When she earned the title of World’s Fattest Woman last year, Pauline Potter hit rock bottom.
Back then, the bedridden 52 stone mum – whose legs weigh over 10 stone each – entered the Guinness Book Of Records to shame herself into dieting, but instead her 10,000 calorie-a-day diet escalated.
Shockingly, she couldn’t stand and relied on her son, Dillion, 19, to take her to the toilet.
But when her ex-husband Alex saw Pauline’s record-breaking entry, he visited for the first time in three years – and, incredibly, despite Pauline’s size, reignited their sex life. They now make love up to seven times in one day, despite 10 stone Alex risking suffocation if Pauline gets on top.
“It’s great exercise just jiggling around.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/10/pauline-potter-weight-loss-worlds-heaviest-woman_n_1662919.html
I thought this was Jersey cop at first glance:
http://www.pixiq.com/article/rhode-island-cop-still-employed
He was convicted and sentenced to ten years in prison but because he is a cop, the judge suspended the sentence, meaning he didn’t serve a day in jail, even though he already had a prior conviction for assaulting a jogger.
….
He will also collect his pension once he reaches retirement age.
(109)
Oh sorry, forgot to mention, he is still employed as a cop at the moment (although his employment status is under review). You can’t make this sh8t up.
(109)
still going:
“Under the Law Enforcement Officers Bill of Rights, a three-member panel of police officers will decide his professional fate”…. fellow ‘brothers’ are going to be impartial? terrific
I love that cops (but not us mere civilians) have a bill of rights. Apparently its just a one way street.
Joyce, from June 2008 till last week saving has been heavily encouraged. The Fed Telegraphed rates were going nowhere but down for severals years, one should have been buying 10-20 year munis, investment grade corporates, 10-20 year treasuries, 5 year FDIC insured CDs, 30 GSA backed MBS and 5 year FDIC insured CDs with every penny they could get their hand on. Up till now it has been buy buy buy buy buy in bonds, now it seems we finally reached bottom with nowhere to invest new money.
If anything the problem was last five years one was forced to save like a mad man as you had to lock in rates asap as rates were in a massive slide, I save a ton and up till the last few weeks there was just so many bonds to buy it was fun, now it is sickening. But then again if one was actually a “saver” one would only have interest income to reinvest or new money. One would have saved all the money. Pretty much one could have started buying 10 year treasury, ten year AAA munis and GSA MBS every quarter since 2006 and made out like a bandit, including the money invested on 7-1-2012 the start of this quarter. Munis and Treasuries are pretty much up 6 days in a row. Even bonds I bought on June 29 are up. How could someone afford to sit in cash since 2008 is beyond me, you already lost a fortune.
joyce says:
July 12, 2012 at 3:58 pm
102
We do not have a strong USD. You can’t with 0% interest rates. Stop manipulating the currency and let rates rise which would encourage savings and domestic as well as foreign investment here in this country which will lead to jobs.
You can’t fix problems caused by several decades of inflation/pull-forward demand by just tinkering with the currency a bit. The malinvestment must be restructured and/or liquidated and then the economy can have real growth.
Who is going to save and invest with 0% interest rates?
Savings = consuming less than you produce
But do me a favor and keep blathering about the same stuff. I do not care what you did, or what others did…
The average person has very little to nothing left over after paying their bills. They are not encouraged to underconsume when there is very little return on their money.
Joyce,
Read post 102:
Imagine yourself owning that business and at the same time you have to borrow at a higher rates.Good for bottomline?
Now,Bring your business domestic.Buy goods in the US with a strong dollar that you can buy less foreign because of foreign exchange.Which will you choose?You just cost the job of John.Say you bought the goods in the US at a higher price,you’re patriotic.Borrow at a higher rate when demand is slow, nobody has money to buy.You are paying higher interest rates on goods that is slowly moving and you paid premium for buying it in the US because dollar is strong.Good for bottomline?
Now reverse exercise see what you find.Low value of dollar will prevent you buying outside the US.It is not cost effective.Low interest will let you weather the storm.
I Want It Today
How Amazon’s ambitious new push for same-day delivery will destroy local retail.
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/small_business/2012/07/amazon_same_day_delivery_how_the_e_commerce_giant_will_destroy_local_retail_.html
Mitt Romney remained the sole stockholder of Bain Capital LLC even after leaving in 1999 to run the Winter Olympics, the private-equity fund said after questions were raised about when the presumptive Republican presidential nominee departed the firm
Bankruptcies, Layoffs
Romney “consistently claimed he could not be blamed for bankruptcies and layoffs from Bain investments after February 1999 because he departed for the Olympics,” said Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutter, in a statement today. “Now we know that he wasn’t telling the truth.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-12/bain-says-romney-kept-ownership-after-leaving-in-1999.html
yo,
Because of what you advocate, a continuation of this debt based credit monetary system where everyone gets hooked on credit/debt, yes you need to keep lowering real interest rates to keep (fake) growing.
What happens when you reach the zero bound? We will have to keep printing to debase the currency in a futile race to the bottom.
If printing money solved the problem, why does anyone need to work?
Because of this failed Fiat credit based monetary system, the FED and .gov can keep manipulating the currency to prevent the balance of trade and the balance of payments between nations from correcting themselves.
With a sound currency and free-market trading between nations (not this phony free or fair trade nonsense we have now), a country could not be a net-importer or exporter for a very long time.
Joyce,
I don’t know how else to explain it to you.You keep on bringing up your fantasy analogy.I am explaining it to you in real terms.There was always currency exchange and interest rates.The fed brings rates up to slow down an over heated economy and brings rates down to promote growth.It was always have been.They follow this on every country.
yo,
Give it a rest. The Keynesian Kenyan is going down hard in November.
122. The debates should be fun! Bring lions or rabid dogs into the arena and rip both of these wankers a new assh@le.
Addressing the access to training and workout facilities, Paterno wrote, “Is this for personal use or 2nd Mile kids. No to 2nd Mile kids. Liability problem.”
FU JoePa
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ncaaf–joe-paterno-blame-freeh-report-jerry-sandusky-penn-state-tarnished-legacy.html
Essex 122 hate or love, Newt would have cut “O” a new A88hole. I would pay to see that one.
“30-year-mortgage rate falls to record low of 3.56%”
It was about a year ago that I was laughed at for demanding a 3.75% 30 year fixed.
I got that and better.
42.
Joyce,
At least you have a country now to bug out to. Iceland deserves respect. Gordon Brown called them terrorists. Heck, I fill the role of terrorist too.
Brian,
“Iceland has a population of like 300,000 people. That’s not much more than Newark, NJ. Are we really comparing their economy to ours?”
Considering we have 46.5 million on food stamps I think we should.
Buying,no mortgage , no deduction, don’t care. Disclaimer nice cheap house in the middle of no-ware, just how I like it.
Brian,
“The difference is, there are 300,000 oppinions in Iceland vs 3 million in the US. It takes forever for us to decide what to do. There’s neverending debates….By the time we act, in the US, it’s usually too late.”
The problem with you is that you still have hope. Its over son. Bought and paid for. Get ready to lick your wounds. Some wounds will be worse than others but everyone will bleed.
AG 127 sad but true.
I live in a fantasy?
You’re the one who thinks one person (or a small committee) is smart enough to set interest rates (the price of money, which is at least 1/2 of every transaction) at the optimal level for a globally interconnected economy.
You’re the one who thinks inflation is good for the country or economy as a whole when all it is is a controlled theft and redistribution of wealth upwards. “A controlled inflation is a benefit to a heavily indebted country” … I believe is what your remark was. I have to ask; a benefit to whom? Certainly not the individual people.
120.yo says:
July 12, 2012 at 6:19 pm
Joyce,
I don’t know how else to explain it to you.You keep on bringing up your fantasy analogy.I am explaining it to you in real terms.There was always currency exchange and interest rates.The fed brings rates up to slow down an over heated economy and brings rates down to promote growth.It was always have been.They follow this on every country.
Joyce,
You get it. Your running for office? Got my vote.
It will play out like this. Destruction of fiat currencies followed by war. Euro –> Pound–> Yen –>Dollar. The peripheral economies wont be spared. Then we get a whole ne bunch of banker b_stards to issue us a global currency for the sake of peace.
Dont be a sucker.
with this i disagree.http://www.showdabola.com
“Newt would have cut “O” a new A88hole. I would pay to see that one.”
Mike,
I know Newt a bit (enough that he has called me at home to talk about issues of common interest), and I would not want him to be president.
Sany Heavy Industry – China’s biggest maker of excavators – lowers its sales growth target to 10% from 40% previously. “We (previously) estimated the whole market to grow slightly,” says its Vice Chair, “It seems we were too optimistic.” With the industry in contraction, the company will need to take market share to meet even its lowered forecast
Wake up & smell the coffee.
Shore 135 would be interesting! I agree, but you have to admit it would have been a show.
Joyce not to be condescending, but you go girl!
Mike,
Maybe if Mitt can pull it off, or withdraw so we can get a real candidate who can win, and Obama loses then BO and Newt can star in a reality show.
139,
Shore,
If Mitt picks Condaleeza Rice then its over. Everyone hates Mittens except his family and the mormans. Throw in a hardcore Neocon like Rice and hand 4 more years to Obama. You neocons dont get it. Everyone hates you.
Condi Rice is supposed to get people chuffed? OK whatever….and AG…I have no clue what you are talking about…this piece is on target until the end with the Rice nonsense….
WSJ
DECLARATIONS
Noonan: Ennui the People America is in crisis. Why is the presidential campaign so lifeless?
By PEGGY NOONAN
The 2012 presidential election is unusual. It is a crisis election like 1932 or 1980, with the American people knowing we’re at a turning point and knowing that who we pick now really matters. But crisis elections tend to bring drama—a broad sense of excitement and passion. We’re not seeing that this year. We’re not seeing passionate proclamations from supporters of one candidate or the other that their guy is just right for the moment, their guy is the answer. I’m speaking of the excitement of deep belief: “FDR will save the day.” “Reagan will turn it around.”
President Obama’s supporters don’t talk like that, or think it. Neither do most of Mitt Romney’s. It’s all so subdued.
What is behind the general lack of passion? A theory in two parts:
First, people know that what America needs right now is the leadership of a kind of political genius. Second, they know neither of the candidates is a political genius.
That’s why it seems so flat when you talk to voters or political professionals.
It’s as if the key job opened up just when the company might go under. A new CEO would make all the difference. But none of the applicants leave the members of the board saying, “This guy is the answer to our prayers.” In the end, they’ll make a decision, and it will be a prudent, tentative one: “This one seems a bit better than that one.”
Why do people think we need a kind of political genius? Because they know exactly how deep our problems are and exactly how divided our nation is. We need a president who knows and understands politics because he knows and understands people and can galvanize them. When he speaks, you listen, in part because you believe he’ll give it to you straight, in part because his views seems commonsensical, in part because something in his optimism pings right into your latent hopefulness, and in part because he’s direct and doesn’t hide his meaning in obfuscation, abstraction, clichés and dead words.
Think of what we face domestically—only domestically.
Every voter in the country knows we have to get a hold of spending and begin to turn it around. At the same time—really, the same time—we have to get a hold of the tax system and remake it so that at the very least we can remove the sense of agitated grievance that marks our daily economic life, and at most we can encourage growth. If you really try to do these things, you will make a lot of people unhappy. It will take a political talent of the highest order to hold people together during the process, to allow them the luxury of feeling trust in your judgment.
The next president will have to wrangle with Congress, and when lawmakers balk, he’ll have to go over their heads and tell the American people the plan, the reasons it will work, and why it’s fair and good. He’ll have to get them to tell their congressmen, by phone calls and mail and by collaring them in the neighborhood and at the town hall, to back the president. When this happens to enough of them—well, as Reagan used to say, when they feel the heat, they see the light. The members go to the speaker, and suddenly the speaker is knocking back a drink with the president, and in the end a deal gets made. Things get pushed inch by inch toward progress, and suddenly there’s a sense things can work again. That encourages an air of unity and of national purpose, which itself gives a boost to public morale.
Anyway, the next president will have to do that sort of thing, and it will take deep political gifts. We have not seen that genius in Mr. Obama. Whether you will vote for him or not, you know you haven’t seen it. He seems to view politics as his weary duty, something he had to do on his way to greatness.
When he goes over the heads of Congress to the people, it’s like he threw a dead fish over the transom—it lands with a “Thwap!” and makes a mess, and people run away. As for Mr. Romney it is a commonplace in punditry to implore him to speak clearly of where he’ll go and how and why we should follow.
Both candidates seem largely impenetrable—it’s hard to know them, figure them. With Mr. Romney, you have a sense of what he’s been, what jobs he’s held, and his general approach. But do you have a solid sense of who he’d be and what he’d do as president? Probably not. Even he may not know. As for Mr. Obama, the more facts you know, the more you don’t understand him, the more you can’t quite grok him.
Neither has a flair for politics, and neither seems to love it. Both come from minority parts of the American experience, and both often seem to be translating as they speak, from their own natural inner language to their vision of how “normal Americans” think.
What does all this suggest? That voters this year will tend to be practical in their choice and modest in their expectations. Which isn’t all bad. But joy would be more fun.
We must end with some burly, optimistic thoughts or we’ll hurl ourselves over a transom and go “Thawp!” 1. There’s still time—more than 100 days—for each candidate to go deeper, get franker, and light some kind of flame. 2. The acceptance speeches are huge opportunities to do that. 3. The debates, if they do not sink into formalized torpor or anchor-led superficialities, could be not only decisive but revealing of greater depths. 4. Mr. Romney’s vice presidential choice will matter.
About which a note. Speaking the other day to a gathering of businesspeople from across the country, I mentioned the subdued nature of the election and my thoughts as to its reasons. I was surprised to get no push-back afterward, even from political enthusiasts, only agreement.
But the news: When conversation turned to the vice presidential nominee, I said we all know the names of those being considered, spoke of a few, and then said Condoleezza Rice might be a brilliant choice.
Here spontaneous applause burst forth.
Consider: A public figure of obvious and nameable accomplishment whose attainments can’t be taken away from her. Washington experience—she wouldn’t be learning on the job. Never run for office but no political novice. An academic, but not ethereal or abstract. A woman in a year when Republicans aren’t supposed to choose a woman because of what is now called the 2008 experience—so the choice would have a certain boldness. A black woman in a campaign that always threatens to take on a painful racial overlay. A foreign-policy professional acquainted with everyone who’s reigned or been rising the past 20 years.
I should add here the look on the faces of the people who were applauding. They looked surprised by their own passion. Actually they looked relieved, like a campaign was going on and big things might happen and maybe it could get kind of . . . exciting.
Condi Rice is supposed to get people chuffed? OK whatever….and AG…I have no clue what you are talking about…this piece is on target until the end with the Rice nonsense….
WSJ
DECLARATIONS
Noonan: Ennui the People America is in crisis. Why is the presidential campaign so lifeless?
By PEGGY NOONAN
The 2012 presidential election is unusual. It is a crisis election like 1932 or 1980, with the American people knowing we’re at a turning point and knowing that who we pick now really matters. But crisis elections tend to bring drama—a broad sense of excitement and passion. We’re not seeing that this year. We’re not seeing passionate proclamations from supporters of one candidate or the other that their guy is just right for the moment, their guy is the answer. I’m speaking of the excitement of deep belief: “FDR will save the day.” “Reagan will turn it around.”
President Obama’s supporters don’t talk like that, or think it. Neither do most of Mitt Romney’s. It’s all so subdued.
What is behind the general lack of passion? A theory in two parts:
First, people know that what America needs right now is the leadership of a kind of political genius. Second, they know neither of the candidates is a political genius.
That’s why it seems so flat when you talk to voters or political professionals.
It’s as if the key job opened up just when the company might go under. A new CEO would make all the difference. But none of the applicants leave the members of the board saying, “This guy is the answer to our prayers.” In the end, they’ll make a decision, and it will be a prudent, tentative one: “This one seems a bit better than that one.”
Why do people think we need a kind of political genius? Because they know exactly how deep our problems are and exactly how divided our nation is. We need a president who knows and understands politics because he knows and understands people and can galvanize them. When he speaks, you listen, in part because you believe he’ll give it to you straight, in part because his views seems commonsensical, in part because something in his optimism pings right into your latent hopefulness, and in part because he’s direct and doesn’t hide his meaning in obfuscation, abstraction, clichés and dead words.
Think of what we face domestically—only domestically.
Every voter in the country knows we have to get a hold of spending and begin to turn it around. At the same time—really, the same time—we have to get a hold of the tax system and remake it so that at the very least we can remove the sense of agitated grievance that marks our daily economic life, and at most we can encourage growth. If you really try to do these things, you will make a lot of people unhappy. It will take a political talent of the highest order to hold people together during the process, to allow them the luxury of feeling trust in your judgment.
The next president will have to wrangle with Congress, and when lawmakers balk, he’ll have to go over their heads and tell the American people the plan, the reasons it will work, and why it’s fair and good. He’ll have to get them to tell their congressmen, by phone calls and mail and by collaring them in the neighborhood and at the town hall, to back the president. When this happens to enough of them—well, as Reagan used to say, when they feel the heat, they see the light. The members go to the speaker, and suddenly the speaker is knocking back a drink with the president, and in the end a deal gets made. Things get pushed inch by inch toward progress, and suddenly there’s a sense things can work again. That encourages an air of unity and of national purpose, which itself gives a boost to public morale.
Anyway, the next president will have to do that sort of thing, and it will take deep political gifts. We have not seen that genius in Mr. 0bama. Whether you will vote for him or not, you know you haven’t seen it. He seems to view politics as his weary duty, something he had to do on his way to greatness.
When he goes over the heads of Congress to the people, it’s like he threw a dead fish over the transom—it lands with a “Thwap!” and makes a mess, and people run away. As for Mr. Romney it is a commonplace in punditry to implore him to speak clearly of where he’ll go and how and why we should follow.
Both candidates seem largely impenetrable—it’s hard to know them, figure them. With Mr. Romney, you have a sense of what he’s been, what jobs he’s held, and his general approach. But do you have a solid sense of who he’d be and what he’d do as president? Probably not. Even he may not know. As for Mr. 0bama, the more facts you know, the more you don’t understand him, the more you can’t quite grok him.
Neither has a flair for politics, and neither seems to love it. Both come from minority parts of the American experience, and both often seem to be translating as they speak, from their own natural inner language to their vision of how “normal Americans” think.
What does all this suggest? That voters this year will tend to be practical in their choice and modest in their expectations. Which isn’t all bad. But joy would be more fun.
We must end with some burly, optimistic thoughts or we’ll hurl ourselves over a transom and go “Thawp!” 1. There’s still time—more than 100 days—for each candidate to go deeper, get franker, and light some kind of flame. 2. The acceptance speeches are huge opportunities to do that. 3. The debates, if they do not sink into formalized torpor or anchor-led superficialities, could be not only decisive but revealing of greater depths. 4. Mr. Romney’s vice presidential choice will matter.
About which a note. Speaking the other day to a gathering of businesspeople from across the country, I mentioned the subdued nature of the election and my thoughts as to its reasons. I was surprised to get no push-back afterward, even from political enthusiasts, only agreement.
But the news: When conversation turned to the vice presidential nominee, I said we all know the names of those being considered, spoke of a few, and then said Condoleezza Rice might be a brilliant choice.
Here spontaneous applause burst forth.
Consider: A public figure of obvious and nameable accomplishment whose attainments can’t be taken away from her. Washington experience—she wouldn’t be learning on the job. Never run for office but no political novice. An academic, but not ethereal or abstract. A woman in a year when Republicans aren’t supposed to choose a woman because of what is now called the 2008 experience—so the choice would have a certain boldness. A black woman in a campaign that always threatens to take on a painful racial overlay. A foreign-policy professional acquainted with everyone who’s reigned or been rising the past 20 years.
I should add here the look on the faces of the people who were applauding. They looked surprised by their own passion. Actually they looked relieved, like a campaign was going on and big things might happen and maybe it could get kind of . . . exciting.
Condi Rice is supposed to get people chuffed? OK whatever….and AG…I have no clue what you are talking about…this piece is on target until the end with the Rice nonsense….
WSJ
DECLARATIONS
Noonan: Ennui the People America is in crisis. Why is the presidential campaign so lifeless?
By PEGGY NOONAN
The 2012 presidential election is unusual. It is a crisis election like 1932 or 1980, with the American people knowing we’re at a turning point and knowing that who we pick now really matters. But crisis elections tend to bring drama—a broad sense of excitement and passion. We’re not seeing that this year. We’re not seeing passionate proclamations from supporters of one candidate or the other that their guy is just right for the moment, their guy is the answer. I’m speaking of the excitement of deep belief: “FDR will save the day.” “Reagan will turn it around.”
President Obama’s supporters don’t talk like that, or think it. Neither do most of Mitt Romney’s. It’s all so subdued.
What is behind the general lack of passion? A theory in two parts:
First, people know that what America needs right now is the leadership of a kind of political genius. Second, they know neither of the candidates is a political genius.
That’s why it seems so flat when you talk to voters or political professionals.
It’s as if the key job opened up just when the company might go under. A new CEO would make all the difference. But none of the applicants leave the members of the board saying, “This guy is the answer to our prayers.” In the end, they’ll make a decision, and it will be a prudent, tentative one: “This one seems a bit better than that one.”
Why do people think we need a kind of political genius? Because they know exactly how deep our problems are and exactly how divided our nation is. We need a president who knows and understands politics because he knows and understands people and can galvanize them. When he speaks, you listen, in part because you believe he’ll give it to you straight, in part because his views seems commonsensical, in part because something in his optimism pings right into your latent hopefulness, and in part because he’s direct and doesn’t hide his meaning in obfusc-tion, abstraction, clichés and dead words.
Think of what we face domestically—only domestically.
Every voter in the country knows we have to get a hold of spending and begin to turn it around. At the same time—really, the same time—we have to get a hold of the tax system and remake it so that at the very least we can remove the sense of agitated grievance that marks our daily economic life, and at most we can encourage growth. If you really try to do these things, you will make a lot of people unhappy. It will take a political talent of the highest order to hold people together during the process, to allow them the luxury of feeling trust in your judgment.
The next president will have to wrangle with Congress, and when lawmakers balk, he’ll have to go over their heads and tell the American people the plan, the reasons it will work, and why it’s fair and good. He’ll have to get them to tell their congressmen, by phone calls and mail and by collaring them in the neighborhood and at the town hall, to back the president. When this happens to enough of them—well, as Reagan used to say, when they feel the heat, they see the light. The members go to the speaker, and suddenly the speaker is knocking back a drink with the president, and in the end a deal gets made. Things get pushed inch by inch toward progress, and suddenly there’s a sense things can work again. That encourages an air of unity and of national purpose, which itself gives a boost to public morale.
Anyway, the next president will have to do that sort of thing, and it will take deep political gifts. We have not seen that genius in Mr. 0bama. Whether you will vote for him or not, you know you haven’t seen it. He seems to view politics as his weary duty, something he had to do on his way to greatness.
When he goes over the heads of Congress to the people, it’s like he threw a dead fish over the transom—it lands with a “Thwap!” and makes a mess, and people run away. As for Mr. Romney it is a commonplace in punditry to implore him to speak clearly of where he’ll go and how and why we should follow.
Both candidates seem largely impenetrable—it’s hard to know them, figure them. With Mr. Romney, you have a sense of what he’s been, what jobs he’s held, and his general approach. But do you have a solid sense of who he’d be and what he’d do as president? Probably not. Even he may not know. As for Mr. 0bama, the more facts you know, the more you don’t understand him, the more you can’t quite grok him.
Neither has a flair for politics, and neither seems to love it. Both come from minority parts of the American experience, and both often seem to be translating as they speak, from their own natural inner language to their vision of how “normal Americans” think.
What does all this suggest? That voters this year will tend to be practical in their choice and modest in their expectations. Which isn’t all bad. But joy would be more fun.
We must end with some burly, optimistic thoughts or we’ll hurl ourselves over a transom and go “Thawp!” 1. There’s still time—more than 100 days—for each candidate to go deeper, get franker, and light some kind of flame. 2. The acceptance speeches are huge opportunities to do that. 3. The debates, if they do not sink into formalized torpor or anchor-led superficialities, could be not only decisive but revealing of greater depths. 4. Mr. Romney’s vice presidential choice will matter.
About which a note. Speaking the other day to a gathering of businesspeople from across the country, I mentioned the subdued nature of the election and my thoughts as to its reasons. I was surprised to get no push-back afterward, even from political enthusiasts, only agreement.
But the news: When conversation turned to the vice presidential nominee, I said we all know the names of those being considered, spoke of a few, and then said Condoleezza Rice might be a brilliant choice.
Here spontaneous applause burst forth.
Consider: A public figure of obvious and nameable accomplishment whose attainments can’t be taken away from her. Washington experience—she wouldn’t be learning on the job. Never run for office but no political novice. An academic, but not ethereal or abstract. A woman in a year when Republicans aren’t supposed to choose a woman because of what is now called the 2008 experience—so the choice would have a certain boldness. A black woman in a campaign that always threatens to take on a painful racial overlay. A foreign-policy professional acquainted with everyone who’s reigned or been rising the past 20 years.
I should add here the look on the faces of the people who were applauding. They looked surprised by their own passion. Actually they looked relieved, like a campaign was going on and big things might happen and maybe it could get kind of . . . exciting.
#52 joyce
“Please explain to me how the laws of mathematics cease to exist when you go from small numbers to large numbers.”
Are you Liberal Arts or JD?
Chi,
If your goal is to pull the party line good luck. This isnt 2008. People are fed up and they recognize the open fraud we call elections. It simply doesnt matter anymore. Bretton Woods II is coming to an end. Its over and good luck.
#121 Gary
“Give it a rest. The Keynesian Kenyan is going down hard in November.”
Let me know when you want to understand why this will not happen. See Shore #139 for a clue.
I don’t follow Fabius.
#140 AG
The GOP have only one Ha1l Mary play left and that is TPAW.
Mitt cannot win.
#145 Joyce
When you scale from 300,000 to 300Million you amplify your margin error by 10,000.
#121 Gary.
“Give it a rest. The Keynesian Kenyan is going down hard in November.”
You said that you have learnt so much in here over the past few years, let me try and add to that.
When you look at politics, there are two pictures to see. There is the realist picture of what is actually going on and the picture that is painted through the lens of your own political views.
Until you can divorce you own political views and look at the reality, you won’t see the true picture. The hard reality is the Mitt can’t win.
147
Fabius,
So much the better since Iceland made the CORRECT decisions.
And for the JD’s in here, just to show i’m not 8’ing on ya, I give you a beautiful 4th amendment discussion.
http://jalopnik.com/5925176/a-legal-analysis-of-jay+zs-99-problems?tag=rules-of-the-road
148
Fabius,
I can add even more to that for you. The hard reality is that either Obama or Romney is going to be the next president and nothing will change for the better. The hard reality is that the horrific actions set in motion a LONG time ago will continue unabated. The hard reality is that they are both the same and feign differences to appease approx. 1/2 the population and keep us fighting over nonsensical wedge issues.
#149
There are two points here, which would you like to cover?
A) You cannot scale Iceland to the US,
B) What did Iceland do to address their austerierty requierments and requests!
A) I did no such thing. They did what was necessary and mathematically the correct thing. Which is what I said earlier, and also that mathematical properties do not change when the numbers get larger.
B) Read above
Anyone who reads or is older than 20 knows Newt has ZERO credibility. He may think he’s the smartest man in the room, but he has more in common with that economist everyone hates, and he is also personally unappealing. I don’t really him able to do much besides posture and pontificate.
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[89] JJ
1. On the first green of the course I used to caddy at.
2. On the Lower Deck (pre big dig, this means something to Bostonians). And yes, I was driving and the car was moving.
3. In my ex’s bed (with someone else).
Now I gotta figure that number 2 gets me a JJ Award.
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