From the Star Ledger:
Foreclosures drop in New Jersey
The number of New Jersey homes in foreclosure dropped in the first six months of the year, according to a report from RealtyTrac, from 18,417 last June to 10,733 this year, easing fears of a flood of filings.
Nationwide, foreclosure filings were up 2 percent from the previous six months, but down 11 percent from the same time period last year, according to the report.
In February, the New Jersey Supreme Court unfroze foreclosure procedures and clarified what information must be included in paperwork that initiates the process, known as the notice of intent to foreclose. At the time, it was estimated there were 50,000 to 100,000 unprocessed foreclosures in limbo.Yesterday’s data also followed a national financial settlement in February with five major lenders on foreclosure-processing abuses known as “robo-signing.”
“We had been concerned after the settlement that we’d see a real rise in foreclosures,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow, a real estate firm. “We are seeing an increase in some states, but that rate is well below what it was previously,” he said, noting that foreclosure filings peaked in the summer of 2009. Since then, banks, mortgage brokers and even some states have moved aggressively to stem the tide.
From NJBIZ:
N.J. foreclosure activity jumps, but expert says timing is perfect
Foreclosure activity in New Jersey in the second quarter of 2012 significantly increased compared to the same period in the previous year, according to a report from Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac.
But a real estate expert said the timing couldn’t be better for an increase in foreclosures, with the state’s housing market improving and banks becoming more proactive in the foreclosure process, following a lift of the state’s moratorium and a multibillion-dollar national foreclosure settlement.
“The moratorium had the effect of delaying an increase in foreclosure inventory from worse times to better times,” said Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group. “What we’re seeing now is the problem is not getting worse but better, because banks are now moving forward.”
According to the report, foreclosure actions in New Jersey declined 10.44 percent from May and 1.32 percent from the first quarter of 2012, but increased by 65.91 percent from the second quarter of 2011. In the United States, foreclosures declined 3.96 percent from May, 2.55 percent from the first quarter of the year and 8.21 percent from the second quarter of 2011.
But Otteau said regardless of the increase in foreclosure filings, New Jersey is beginning to close the gap between the number of homes entering foreclosure and the amount of completed transactions, which he said is a greater indicator of a state’s health in the real estate market.
“The housing market this year is in its strongest position of the last five years and better able to absorb the distressed inventory that is being introduced into the market,” Otteau said, noting that, year to date, home sales are up 24 percent and inventory is down 14. “Between the properties going into foreclosure and the ones we’re selling, we’re down to a net gap of only about 400 houses a month. By next year at this time, we should be seeing a sales surplus, and some states have already reached that point. Our foreclosure problem should begin to shrink.”
From CNBC:
When Foreclosure Supplies Fall, the Bottom Falls Out of Housing
Growing activity in the spring housing market brought new growth in home prices, but those gains are growing ever more precarious because they are dependent on low-priced, distressed properties.
While prices in the past three months rose 1.7 percent on a national average from a year ago, according to a report from Clear Capital, the biggest gains were out West, where foreclosures and short sales are often the majority of a local market’s activity.
…
While foreclosures brought home prices down initially, they are now driving them up because there is so much demand from investors and first time buyers, looking for bargains. Supplies of these cheap homes are also dwindling, because banks are still working to modify many troubled loans, and states that require a judge in the foreclosure process are still facing a huge backlog.
…
Bottom line, until this housing market is no longer dependent on distressed supply to support overall home sales, calling a bottom to the national housing market is premature.
So we’ve got 3 completely different opinions this morning.
1) Foreclosures are falling, and it is a good thing
2) Foreclosures are rising, and it is a good thing
3) Foreclosures are falling and it is a bad thing
and I’m sure I can find the fourth variation if I spend 5 more minutes.
Recap from yesterday:
So you are a Keynesian theory believer now
joyce says:
July 12, 2012 at 10:51 am
Only one european country actually went through with their austerity, and that was Iceland. They told the banksters to go F off; they protected the depositors; they cut back government spending to align with taxes (OMG what a horrible idea!)… and what happened? They had a nasty QUICK recession and are growing again.
yo says:
July 12, 2012 at 11:40 am
Iceland is more Keynesian than Austerity
joyce says:
July 13, 2012 at 1:14 am
A) I did no such thing. They did what was necessary and mathematically the correct thing. Which is what I said earlier, and also that mathematical properties do not change when the numbers get larger.
B) Read above
I will go with no.2
Foreclosure are rising and that is a good thing
1.They get identified who needs help from the settlement and seperate the hopeless.
2.Prices are rising sellers are holding off.More foreclosure on the market to rid off
3.banks that are holding foreclosed homes are now starting to bring them slowly in the market due to price rising.
4.Even with an inventory of very high foreclosed homes the banks will hold, they will not be sold individually.So it will not effect rising prices.What can slow down rising prices is buyers slow down aka buyers stop buying..It will not be foreclosure inventory
What I meant in #4 is the banks will still sell majority of foreclosed homes in bulk not individually
Morning, NJ.
Agree with Yo. FK is the only way to clear the mess. The problem with principal reductions is who gets them (everyone — to expensive). So if the buyer can pay they do… if they can’t they move. Just like is always was before the bubble (the things became ‘different this time’). Bubble buyers have a choice: You can get relief from your bad decision to overspend (FK), but you can’t keep the house (Can’t have the cake and eat it too).
The problem of strategic default remains, but I don’t think its a widespread problem. If the buyer is actually willing to give up the house — then get the hell out, take your lumps and let the bank clear the books (and the neighborhood). The real problem in my eyes are the people who didn’t pay and wouldn’t leave, and stuck their thumb in the eye of any efforts to carry out the typical FK process (“Produce the Note, MFer!”).
And on an parochial note: of course housing has bottomed — look at how many of us smart people on this blog are jumping in. ;-)
Let us do an Iceland and forgive all debt up to 110%
Give up 110%? Is that like a cash out refi?
yo 7 can you give a month to go out & buy something FHA 3% down first, I want a pony to.
That was s/c
8 Yes grim very similar but different, with that statement I can be an economist.
yo I know playing along.
Gary got a job. Pony for everyone
Moose nothing wrong with produce the note. You want to enforce a contract fine with me, no whatever program. But you better have the note to support it. You guys sliced & diced them put mortgages in all sorts of unholy vehicles to get them rated better to sell them to suckers now you have no note! No better that the 2 heloc folks or40k lawn guy living in 600k house trying to live for free. The banks took a chance to increase revenue
now they want it both ways. Yes some will get their house for free is a byproduct of the banks greed, if you left the mortgage alone & didn’t play games you would have the note.
mikey (14)-
If all these banksters have such a good settlement in place with the state AGs, why aren’t they moving faster to FK?
Perhaps they’re still hiring and scaling up their forgery departments.
JPM destroys the CDS market. Wow, nobody here saw that coming.
Produce the note, mf’er!
Did you stop paying your mortgage?
17.New Improved Meat says:
July 13, 2012 at 7:43 am
Produce the note, mf’er!
Meat saw moose’s post knew you would be along.
“So getting out of this town, spending more time with the American people, listening to them, and also, then, being in a conversation with them about where do we go together as a country, I need to do a better job of that in my second term,” the president said.
News flash pal, you’re done. You’re not getting a second term. What, it takes a f*cking genius to realize that the trillions sitting on the sidelines are just itching to be used in the form of investment on every level? Gimme a f*cking break. Too many people are watching these reality news shows clouding the difference between forest and trees. The moment the hammer falls on this mope will produce an explosion of growth on every level so intense, your undies are gonna get blown off.
Brian 18 If you have been tossed around from bank to bank good chance they have no note, could be a move.
Gary 20 I am not so sure on “O’s” upcoming demise.
No thanks. I am not considering that move. My mortgage is owned by a Credit Union and they did not sell it.
21.Mikeinwaiting says:
July 13, 2012 at 8:13 am
Brian 18 If you have been tossed around from bank to bank good chance they have no note, could be a move.
Wells Fargo reports higher second-quarter profit
REUTERS — 5 MINUTES AGO
(Reuters) – Wells Fargo & Co on Friday reported higher second-quarter profit on strong mortgage banking income as borrowers continued to refinance their homes at low rates.
The nation’s fourth-biggest bank said net income was $4.6 billion, or 82 cents a share, compared with $3.9 billion, or 70 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier.
How much is this serial refinancing costing consumers. Idiot new neighbor next door to me closed 12 weeks ago exact. Mortgage rates have been straight down for 12 weeks. Someone like him is already paying too much for mortgage and will have to pay to refinance.
Greenspan said five years ago that conventional fixed rate mortgages are bad for consumer. They pay more interest up front then a ARM and then keeps refinancing at high costs. Pretty Much anyone who got a fixed rate mortgage since 2006 made a bad mistake.
Brian 23 I know you mentioned the credit union in the past, just a broad statement.
I think it is clear that I am a longtime Republican who believes that Obama has been a disaster and will be an even bigger one should he win reelection. With that out if the way, when one looks at the map, it is nearly impossible for Mitt to get to 270. Obama can lose any number of important states and still win. Right now Mitt needs for everything to break his way and for everything to break against Obama. Can it happen? Sure. Of course, Sela Ward might also stop by later to rub my back.
Bush sucked, Obama is dreadful, and Mitt is as inspiring as oatmeal. I trust that we are in for a very bad next four years.
I have BIL that took adjustable when he bought last year.I told him why?rates can only go up from here.He said,if they do I will just pay it off.This are the kind of people that will take a risk of an ARM.A common person that will not be able to refi when rates go up will get hurt.
Analysis: Ranks of tight-fisted community banks surge
By Tim McLaughlin Mon Jul 9, 2012 1:04am EDT
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By Tim McLaughlin
(Reuters) – Union County Savings Bank in Elizabeth, New Jersey, is profitable with few problem loans and a capital ratio that would make a too-big-to-fail bank drool.
The community bank is also one of the most tight-fisted lenders in the country. The bank invests just 9 percent of its $1.3 billion in deposits in loans. It pours most of the rest into an investment portfolio. That loan-to-deposit ratio puts it near the bottom of 6,000 U.S. community banks, according to a Reuters analysis.
Community banks are often seen as kinder, gentler versions of their big-bank brethren. The Occupy Wall Street movement accused big banks of being greedy and encouraged depositors to move funds to their local community banks.
These banks trumpet the small business loans they make because they spur job creation, a big deal in an economy with an unemployment rate of 8.2 percent.
But not every community bank is the quintessential hometown lender portrayed in the Frank Capra movie “It’s a Wonderful Life.”
There are more than 800 community banks that are like Union County Savings: They lend less than half their deposits, a rate far below their peers.
About 14 percent of the community banks analyzed had a loan-to-deposit ratio of less than 51 percent in the first quarter, nearly double the percentage in 2006, according to an analysis of FDIC data. Meanwhile, these tight-fisted banks’ investment portfolios swelled to $84 billion in the first quarter of this year. Six years earlier, similar banks held $52 billion in their investment portfolios.
A TALE OF TWO BANKS
Donald Sims, who has run Union County Savings Bank for 40 years, said it is a difficult time to even find a loan to make a competitive bid on. He cited keen competition from big banks, who dominate residential lending in and around Elizabeth, New Jersey, a port town of about 125,000.
His bank doesn’t do business lending.
“I have not been in the position to present that face to the public,” Sims said. “We don’t have the infrastructure.”
The lender is a mutual savings bank with $1.5 billion in assets and no direct owners. Instead, depositors have an interest in the net worth of the institution formed in 1883 to promote thrift and home ownership. But most of its $10.4 million profit in 2011 came from interest off government-backed bonds, not loans.
Phyllis Salowe-Kaye, executive director of New Jersey Citizen Action, said Union County Savings is the type of bank her group usually pressures to lend more. But the group’s resources are stretched as New Jersey Citizen Action, the state’s largest citizen watchdog coalition, focuses on big banks and the foreclosure crisis.
“In the past, that would be the bank we would picket.”
Cross-town rival Crown Bank, meanwhile, made more money ($17 million in 2011) by lending out 95 percent of its $481 million in deposits to consumers and businesses. With $575 million in assets, Crown is less than half the size of Union County Savings. But its return on assets was 3.12 percent last year, compared with just 0.74 percent for the bigger bank.
BANK OR MONEY MARKET FUND?
It is a tough time to be making loans, bank executives say. Loan demand is slack, the housing market is moribund, and big banks are increasingly willing to make loans to smaller companies.
But the 812 community banks with low loan-to-deposit ratios seem to be having a tougher time than their peers. These banks loaned just 40 percent of their deposits, compared with an average of 73 percent for the overall peer group, the Reuters analysis shows.
If these 812 banks lent money at the same rate as the peer group average, there could be $50 billion more loans made in the United States.
At the other end of the spectrum, Priority Bank in Ozark, Arkansas, doesn’t have any problem using its $55 million in deposits to fund loans. At the end of March, it reported a loan-to-deposit ratio of 141 percent – one of the highest in the country. The rest of its funding came from a Federal Home Loan Bank and other sources. In comparison, JPMorgan Chase & Co Inc, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported a loan-to-deposit ratio of 64 percent.
Nobody can force banks to lend, experts said.
But collecting deposits without making loans is not bank-like. Traditionally, a bank makes money by lending out funds it gets from depositors.
“They should just convert to a money market mutual fund and call it what it is,” said Cornelius Hurley, who runs Boston University’s Morin Center, which studies banking policy.
“Shouldn’t it be the banks sucking up deposits from the local community” and then putting “it back into loans?”
‘A FREE COUNTRY’
Reuters analyzed data from the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, focusing on community banks with assets of $50 million to $2 billion and at least $1 million in net loans. The tight-fisted group of 812 banks had net loans of $59 billion and $149 billion in deposits.
In early 2006, when the U.S. housing market was booming, there were only 483 community banks, or 7.4 percent, out of about 6,500 that had loan-to-deposit ratios of less than 51 percent, according to FDIC data. Those 483 banks had net loans of $31 billion and deposits of $84 billion.
When the housing market tanked, community banks that focused mostly on residential lending didn’t have another leg to stand on. Not only were they making fewer loans to consumers looking to buy homes, but many lost mortgages on their books when customers refinanced with a bigger bank, executives say.
Nine out of 10 community banks deserve the praise they get, said Camden Fine, president of the Independent Community Bankers of America, in Washington D.C.
Fine said that while 6,000-plus community banks account for only 10 percent of the industry’s assets, they make 40 percent of small business loans. That’s important because small businesses generated 64 percent of the net new job growth in the United States over the past 15 years, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
“Nearly all community banks are privately owned, usually by a single family,” Fine said. “If the owner is risk averse, then so is the bank. … The FDIC can’t make a bank loan money. It’s a free country.”
Some banks with low loan-to-deposit ratios are trying to change. Before Blue Hills Bank changed its name and management, it did very little lending in Boston’s Hyde Park neighborhood, where Mayor Tom Menino lives. But under new leadership over the past two years, the loan spigot steadily opened.
“We inherited an institution that did not see lending as a core function,” Blue Hills Bank President Bill Parent said. “We’re trying to build a next-generation community bank that focuses on residential, consumer and commercial lending.”
The bank’s loan-to-deposit ratio was 40 percent in the first quarter, up from 28 percent three years ago.
But Union County Savings, a bank with $1.3 billion in deposits and an exceptionally low loan-to-deposit ratio, is an example of untapped potential. The bank has been a target of regulatory criticism dating to 1991, according to performance evaluations that the FDIC performed under the Community Reinvestment Act.
The average loan-to-deposit ratio of community banks in Union County Savings’ home state of New Jersey is nearly 90 percent. If the bank approached that average, its net loans could top $1.1 billion – not the $117 million it reported at the end of March.
Instead, Union County Savings has more equity capital ($186.4 million) than loans. It reported $1 billion in securities in the first quarter. Assets totaled $1.5 billion.
The FDIC has called Union County Savings a passive lender. It doesn’t have a website. In 2008 and 2009, the bank reported making just 86 home loans in its assessment area. That number drops to only 32 when excluding loans purchased from other lenders, regulators say.
“The primary reason for the limited loan activity is management’s decision to allocate the substantial majority of the bank’s assets into the securities portfolio,” the FDIC said in a 2010 report.
Sims said he’s feeling the heat to make more loans at Union County Savings. But he does not expect a rapid change.
“Am I under pressure? Yes, I am,” Sims said. “But it’s a long-range game that we play.”
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE86805020120709?irpc=932
I too have been a registered Republican since I started voting.It does not mean I always voted with the party ,but that is besides the point.I believe The Republicans went too far right with their beliefs (Tea party,Norquist) that the working middle class will be hurt.A 2 class citizen is forming,no better than a 3rd world country.
I don’t believe O was a good leader either.He made so many compromise that he lost what he stood for.His adminstration is a continuation of Republican policies.
I can’t say Mitt is a good choice either,he flipps where the air will be nice to him and again it is a continuation of the too far right policies.
I will decide in Nov.
McMansions are back-Why worry about taxes and energy prices
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-13/americans-living-larger-as-new-home-sizes-defy-economy.html
#6 And on an parochial note: of course housing has bottomed — look at how many of us smart people on this blog are jumping in. ;-)
For myself, I ma buying because my situation has changed, not because I believe housing has bottomed. More room to go on the downside.
I’ll take this post over anything FabMax writes on the subject. He is possibly the biggest partisan hack on the board. Shore…yeah, O without conisderation of another election is going to be so haughty as to be insufferable. People such as FabMax think there is this inherent enmity of the guy from independents such as me, because we are right of center xenophobes. In reality, it isn’t that O has accomplished roughly nothing…it’s that he has no interest in doing any work. I was really offput at the time by clot’s caustic “Bush in blackface” comment three years ago, but regretably, how correct was that observation? :(
Shore Guy says:
July 13, 2012 at 8:30 am
I think it is clear that I am a longtime Republican who believes that Obama has been a disaster and will be an even bigger one should he win reelection. With that out if the way, when one looks at the map, it is nearly impossible for Mitt to get to 270. Obama can lose any number of important states and still win. Right now Mitt needs for everything to break his way and for everything to break against Obama. Can it happen? Sure. Of course, Sela Ward might also stop by later to rub my back.
Bush sucked, Obama is dreadful, and Mitt is as inspiring as oatmeal. I trust that we are in for a very bad next four years.
Let me try to make it nice and logical for you all to decide: Oblama gets elected, country gets worse on every level; therefore, put the new guy in place. Let me know if you need help with the hard part.
June PPI Rises 1.0%; Core Rate Up 0.2%
Fixed rates mortgages have their own unique sets of risks. If one bought a house in 2000,2001, 2002, 2006,2007,2008,2008,2010, 2011 and had choice between a 30 year fixed and a 3 year adjustable one would have clearly done much better with a 3 year adjustable. First of all you would have much lower monthly payments and you would not have to pay for refinancing. For instance ING on their ARM allows you to set up your mortgage to allow direct auto monthly payments of additional principal.
ARM risk falls each month as you are paying down principal quicker. If one took out a 200K ARM that adjusts ever three years in June 2006 that saves them $300 a month, they would have put that extra $300 a month into principal. Hence if and when the day comes rates rise it is not as much of an impact. Additionally, all the money you saved from having to refinancing 2-3 times should also be prepaid. Most ARMS have a max rate they can rise. In ING case an ARM can only rise 6% higher than the current rate. You can get a 5 year ARM for as little as 2.5%, which means most it can rise is 8.5%.
I am going with a 7 year ARM if I get this REO. I can get like a 2.8% rate. Plan to set up an auto deduct for an extra $500 a month principal. If rates skyrocket I will just pay it off.
Your BIL can afford a house, that is why he is saying he can pay it off. The bank I am dealing with asked for a mortgage pre-qualification letter, credit report AND a bank statement showing proof of funds. I am planning on doing a mortgage for tax write off purposes. But a bank considers a qualified buyer one who had the cash in the bank to close with or without a mortgage. Also remember, there is a sea of cash flooding over everyone until 2015. We have massive Muni bonds being called in next six months, Sunday July 15 will be biggest call day alone since 1993, we have massive amount of Trups being called in next 60 days, we also have huge amounts of ten year treasuries and five year CDs that people used to love to buy until recently maturing. That 5 year 6% CD you bought August 2007 that matures next month what do you do with. That ten year treasury you bought August 2012 what do you do with it. These full calls, partial calls maturities that will hammer people next two years can also be used to prepay principal. Another selling point of arm is at reset if rates dont go up your prepayments will cause your monthly payment to plummet. That does not happen in a 30 year. But fact of the Matter pretty much from June 1999 till June 2012 you would have been much better off with a 3-7 year ARM than a a 30 year fixed. I do think finally in July 2012 the tides are changing and you are not better off with a 30 year fixed. I am still going with 7 year adj as a little cheap plus I plan on putting 30% down which is required by bank, then after closing and I get my 2013 bonus go all in on 1-7 year bonds, then from Spring 2013 forward as bonds mature or get called I will throw them at mortgage and I should be able to pay if off by year 7. Kids start college in 7 years and who knows how long I can last on wall st. Also remember most people only live in their home 7-10 years.
#20/21 gary/mike: I am not sure O does not win again either, and even if he does not, I don’t think there will be an explosion of growth, simply more of the same these last few years.
3B,
There’s no inventory. I can’t find anything in the whole Pascack corridor. Anything listed is basically sh1t.
#29
They can hold large deposits and make smaller yielding fairly safe investment with that money instead of loaning it ,because they dont hardly pay interest.Interest rates goes up they will be creamed.
It’s gonna be close, But i seriously doubt O can do it. He lacks swing states.
#37 gary: In my range there appears to be more than enough inventory, but as you say a good chunk of it is junk. And some still way over priced. Midland Park for whatever reason though has almost no inventory 20 odd listings from low to high.
I am even tempted at times to stay with the poison I know, and just buy in the land of the Unicorn, and than I quickly remind myself of all the reasons I should not.
If I don’t hurry up and do something however, I will be living in that VW Passat.
Rate APR
15-Year Fixed 2.875% 3.182%
5-Year ARM 2.250% 3.153%
5-Year ARM FHA 2.375% 3.036%
Is it woth taking the risk of an ARM when you can take a 15 year fixed with a difference of a few basis points in the APR department?
I am not questioning your decision.You are the GURU.I am learning from this conversation
Be tough for Obama to lose, last elected 1 termers were Bush who lost to Charismatic Clinton and Carter who lost to equally “charamatic” Reagan.
If you live in the house 7-10 years ,you paid more of principal on the 15 year term than interest
You will find amortization table here
http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/mortgage-calculator.aspx
to raging bull jj #35:
Just realize ING is no longer ING. Is ING temporarily in name only.
It’s now Capital One, the same Capital One that makes the number #1 list every year for consumer complaints in in credit cards & loans because their computers manipulate the loan particulars to their constant advantage.
An old ING ARM loan with those features, now handled by Cap One means only many,many ways for Cap One to milk fees from you in a year.
A $300,000 house at 2.875% 15 year fixed will cost you $48,458.20 in interest in 7 years and a decrease of $124,058 in principal with a pay off of $175,942
I mean $300,000 loan
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-11/bofa-give-away-has-few-takers-among-homeowners-mortgages.html
for the experts to figure out. Can they be that stupid ? Yes
ARM rates where linked to LIBOR that is now in question
Fast Eddie – Even if Romney is elected, no pony for you!
I am using ING as an example, I am also checking out a credit union.
I am more scared about interest rate on my bond portfolio then the mortgage. By rapidly paying down a mortgage over 7 years with called bonds it does two things, shortens duration of bond portfolio and eliminates interest rate risk on re-set. I highly doubt knowing how things work on wall st ten years out I will be in as big a tax bracket.
Sadly if I put down less and did a traditional 30 year mortgage it would leave me more cash, but what do I do with that cash? My choices now are investment grade bonds, muni bonds, treasury bonds or zero interest on savings. All pay such low interest I am taking on huge interest rate risk when rates rise. I already have as much junk bonds as I can handle. As much stocks as I can handle, people fail to realize that the effects of ZIRP are only hitting intermediate 5-15 year bond buyers and people who ladder bonds now. When I was a bank person, it was simple, I would tell risk adverse old people looking for safe income with 100K to invest, buy five 10K CDs from years 1-5, then 6, 7, 8,9 and 10 year treasuries. Then once a year I replace maturing cd or bond with a 10 year treasury. From Spring of 1982 to Spring of 2012 it worked out pretty well. Well after the last 12 weeks of rates straight down after already being at a all time low I would have no clue what to tell those old people. There is no safe FDIC insured cd or ten treasury left paying anything resembling a living interest rate. Old people were pretty smart, they always were buying mainly the 5 year cd or ten year treasury. They lived off interest and avoided one year cds, that strategy worked great when we had blips of low interest rates like in 1993 or 2003-2005. We never had four years of ZIRP. In fact retirees are buying investment properties as 8% looks good now. They would have laughed at me at 8% as little as four years ago when you could get a 6% CD for doing nothing.
yo says:
July 13, 2012 at 9:14 am
Rate APR
15-Year Fixed 2.875% 3.182%
5-Year ARM 2.250% 3.153%
5-Year ARM FHA 2.375% 3.036%
Is it woth taking the risk of an ARM when you can take a 15 year fixed with a difference of a few basis points in the APR department?
I am not questioning your decision.You are the GURU.I am learning from this conversation
The market has some real life to it! Buyers are buying into the idea of the market hitting a bottom and they are making offers. Don’t get me wrong, we are still a long way from being out of the woods. Sure is nice to see that at least the patient has a pulse.
15 the monthly payment is too high in case I get laid off or something. I saw the credit union near me has a really low 20 year rate, I am also checking that out.
yo says:
July 13, 2012 at 9:14 am
Rate APR
15-Year Fixed 2.875% 3.182%
5-Year ARM 2.250% 3.153%
5-Year ARM FHA 2.375% 3.036%
Is it woth taking the risk of an ARM when you can take a 15 year fixed with a difference of a few basis points in the APR department?
I am not questioning your decision.You are the GURU.I am learning from this conversation
(20)
Fast Eddie,
The overwhelming majority of the “trillions on the sidelines” is in the form of excess reserves of banks held at the FED. Not only are they an illusion because a few computer key strokes created them, but also because the banks have trillions in losses right now and in the future. They need that newly printed money to whether the upcoming losses.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-spending-binge-never-happened-2012-05-22
#51 30 year: Thanks for the update. Still seeing a fair amount of over priced, over taxed lsitings out there. Will keep looking.
#51 30 year: Just one question. How do the offers compare to the ask prices?
30 year the patient may have a pulse but they are still riddled with cancer that hasn’t been found so they are still tetering on the brink
Shore [27];
There are days I’m afraid you are right. When a state as broke as California with its cities entering Ch. 9 BK, and its only hope incipient entrepreneurs fleeing daily, is willing to vote to spend billions more dollars that they don’t have on high speed rail to nowhere… there is an insurmountable portion of the electorate in this country that are beyond reasoning with.
They want my money. ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
Foreclosures are STALLED in NJ.
NJ is a state abiding by adjudicated foreclosure.
NJ has exceptionally high population density.
If the dominoes were to fall, then there’d be economic chaos. There are just too many stake holders for that scenario.
As such, it’s all about price stabilization by ANY means.
2009 April: Change accounting from Mark-to-Market to Mark-to-Myth and no bank goes insolvent!
Since 2009 April: Keep shadow inventory off the books and sell best quality REO at a 20-40% discount to private investors. The loss is absorbed into the balance sheet so as to clear the market. That huge discount from what is offered to mom/pop is otherwise financed by fools paying the overpriced price with extremely low mortgage rates as the tease: ZIRP (zero interest rates for overnight lending & record low mortgage rates). Operation twist is compounding matters by moving the action from one area of Treasury durations to another.
Side topic: Do you know how your 30 yr mortgage gets priced? Typically, it could be the 10-yr Treasury rate averaged over a period of time (lenders vary this from a most-recent 3-month to a most-recent 3-week period). They then mark that interest rate up by something approximating an industry standard from 1.5% – 1.75%. Look up COFI and LIBOR as basis for the rates, too.
Example (hypothetical):
Most recent 3-wk Avg Ten Yr: 1.6%
Premium: 1.75%
Offered 30-yr fixed mortgage rate = 3.35%
Gary & all, there’s no quality inventory b/c the REO quality inventory got bundled-sold in limited amounts and is otherwise marked-to-myth and in the shadow zone. Get it? It’s pricing collusion to put a floor under prices. No wonder why consumer confidence is crashing! Hah-hah-hah! Enjoy.
Makes you wanna,
UP CHUCK
deal fell through:
Back On Market
MLS #1205232
Price$899,000
Beds5, Baths3
Category Residential
Address 54 JOYCE RD
City TENAFLY
Style COL
Zip 07670
For months now there have been no scheduled Sheriff’s sales beyond September 13th in Morris County. Usually they are queued up for the next 6 months. Finally one (1) later sale has been scheduled, for January 2013. Looks like a de facto moratorium for home occupiers getting booted in October, November, and December. Is there an election coming up or something?
Moose,
This country achieved greatness by doing great things. We achieved exceptionalism by demonstrating behaviors that made us better than the other nations. At some point — choose your marker the end of Apollo, the end of the SE Asia Conflict, the fall of the Berlin Wall — we stopped feeling the need to strive to live up to our ideals (which we never achieved but, the striving was always the key) and to try to prove ourselves worthy of what our forefathers bequeathed to us and we became fat, lazy, and satisfied (or at least satisfied enough), and we lost the burning desire to grow, innovate, achieve, and press forward. Instead, too many of us became focused on protecting our slice of the pie instead of baking more pies.
In the time since we stopped behaving in the ways that got us to the top, we have seen others catch up. Too many of us believe that we are still way above the rest of the world in all noteworthy measures; that is simply self-deception. We do not do ourselves any favors by looking in the mirror and pretending that the droops and sags are not there. If we want to be what we say we are, we need to get ourselves back “in shape” and restart doing what great powers do.
Yes, our military can achieve great things; however, military power rests upon its industrial and general economic foundation. Without a strong economy, even the strongest military power will decline. Just ask the UK and Rome.
Shore [62],
Let’s start by ending the experiment in the White House and at least trying the next guy. We already know he’s a failure, so why stick with it? I’m not saying the other guy is better, I’m saying we can’t do worse.
I can’t believe the inventory I’m seeing in the 500K to 600K range. It’s absolute sh1t. I’m so f*cking disgusted.
#63 gary: I am not looking in that range, but is it really that bad?
Up Chuck for president!
63 – we cant do worse? I think Rombot will take that as a challenge.
59 – TBTB collude on everything; LIBOR, REO, backroom banking deals, etc. etc.
gary (63)-
Oh, we can do worse…much, much worse. Our descent into Third World status will not be interrupted by some Mormon financial skimmer.
The LBO model is a great metaphor for our decline: saddle an asset (that someone else created) with mounds of debt, break it into parts and sell them if necessary…and if the whole thing crumbles under the weight of its own pustulent indebtedness, just walk away.
Mittens is nothing more than Bud Fox without the hot girlfriend or the desire to drink.
Frankly, I don’t trust anyone in power who doesn’t feel the need to have a drink or two these days.
seif,
Gimme a break. The guy in there now is a councilmen. Growing up in Jersey City, I knew guys like him. They talk, they bullsh1t and anyone with a shred of street savy saw right through it. He’s the guy who took a few puffs from a cigarette, put it out and saved it in his suit jacket pocket for later while trying to pull a con.
When somebody like Shore Guy registers and runs for Clowngress, I’ll start to have some hope again. Until such time, I think we all know the quality of person who seeks such office.
Welcome to Mogadishu. Please keep your helmet affixed at all times.
Meat [68],
Just for the f*ck of it, let’s try him out anyway.
There are very few reos, but remember if people really do think REO has bottomed they are more likely to request a home loan modification, short sale or try to pay down principal so they can refinance.
BK on a home wrecks your credit history and keeps you from buying another home for seven years. If you think this is bottom, you are less likely to bk on home.
December 2008 till December 2011 it looked like world was ending. People just stopped paying mortgage. I think a lot of that will still have to work through system. However if people overpaid for homes in 2004-2008 or cashed out too much equity from 2004 to 2008 soon they will either be bk’d or short sell out of home. I highly doubt anyone paid their mortgage every month on a underwater home since the peak in Spring 2006 to wake up one day in Spring of 2013 and then stopped paying. Pretty much it is decision time. Either come to closing with cash and refinance and or throw in the towel, once home prices start rising that choice will be easier.
3B,
Tell me what towns and what price range you’re seeing anything worthwhile because in dying in the 500K plus range.
Chi,
Thanks for the info on bullet bonds.
Gary,
I did not believe that anyone could be as bad as Bush, then B.O. comes along and proves that it is possible. Twelve years of bad presidents is long enough. I don’t think that Romnay has what it takes to be a great president but, I know that B.O. doesent even have what it takes to be a good one. it is time to fire B.O. and hire someone else. If Mitt sucks too, we will be in no worse shape in 2016 than we will be if B.O. wins again.
My nomination for Mitt’s campaign bumper sticker: “Romney 2012, he can’t suck as badly as Obama.”
gary (71)-
Voting only makes you complicit with the scam. Pretty soon, we’re all going to come to the realization that the only effective vote is the vote with a bullet.
Mitt/Bojangles = Genovese/Lucchesi
“Instead, too many of us became focused on protecting our slice of the pie instead of baking more pies.”
agreed.
This columnist is right on. And I say this as someone who owes his degree to D-1 football:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/brennan/story/2012-07-12/paterno-penn-state-shut-down-football/56166544/1
Early in his damning report on the reprehensible behavior of Joe Paterno and other Penn State officials, Louis Freeh writes: “It is up to the entire University community — students, faculty, staff, alumni, the Board and the administration — to undertake a thorough and honest review of its culture.”
That starts with shutting down the football program, at least for a year, perhaps longer — right now.
Harsh words, certainly, and heartbreaking for the young men who are at Penn State now to play the game, but if the school is truly serious about addressing the atrocities that occurred in its football complex by its so-called leaders in the name of big-time football, it must stop playing football and contemplate college life in Happy Valley without it. Everyone in the Penn State community needs to stop thinking about the game and start thinking about the awful things that happened at the school because of it.
snip
What happened at Penn State is the worst scandal to ever occur in an athletic department at a U.S. university. It must be treated as such. SMU’s football program received the so-called death penalty decades ago for sports-related improprieties. This is worse. Far worse.
Penn State and the NCAA should allow players to immediately transfer to other schools and play this fall. If they wish to stay, they would retain their current eligibility when the football program resumes.
As for the once-squeaky-clean image of the late Joe Paterno: If there were any doubts about this prior to today, there should be none as of this morning.
snip
The statue of him on Penn State’s campus should come down today. He won a lot of football games. He graduated a lot of football players. But his reputation is ruined, and there is no one to blame for that but Joe Paterno himself.
71,
Fast Eddie,
Your logic is irrational at best. I really don’t get it. Why won’t you spend your time calling/hoping for someone different than the status quo?
Meat [76],
I’m still gonna vote regardless. Four more years of that mope and we’re dead anyway so what’s the difference.
joyce [80],
This is the choice we have. Right now, there is no one different.
81
But King Romney will save us? Not a chance. Neither can save the titanic… problem no one else either.
Unless Neo from the Matrix makes an appearance.
(82)
I will not vote for either of those two criminal scumbags. I will write in someone else or not vote.
If you think voting for the lesser of evil is acceptable, than you are part of the problem.
Joyce -My biggest problem with King Romney is he is a teetotaler. Even the Roman Empire made sure the slaves were given a liter of wine with their rations every day to drown their sorrows.
If one does not like the choices, write in a name or vote for an independent or third-party candidate. The day when the “winner” gets fewer votes than all the write-in and third-party candidates is the day when change will start to occur.
Juice,
Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s a lie… what isn’t fraudulent these days?
(64)
It’s the nature of the human beast. My wife and I were looking for similar priced properties back in 90-91 when the market was absolutely horrible. Much worse than now. We thought we could bag a decent property at a great price. However, no decent homes were available. Homeowners just don’t list decent properties in bad times because they know the market will eventually turn to their favor. And these times are no different, no matter what anyone says. It just may take longer to blow thru it.
As a result of being frustrated enough to can that whole approach – buying a ‘pre-owned’ home, we decided to buy a building lot in an established subdivision and build a house to our liking and taste. Buying into an established subdivision means all the approvals are there, save building. We haven’t looked backed. I will never regret that decision.
When house prices rise, for example, by 10% leading to a jump in average price from $500k to 550k, the value of the land rises 50k, just about. When prices of homes go down, the comparable lot price goes down the same. But the percentages are different. House prices +- 10% are comparable to land prices going up/down 35% or more.
Caveat Emptor, try building a home yourself in good times – you will get screwed royally. The subcontractors will walk out on you and be merciless. Unless, of course, you want to overpay big time. We have friends in Chappaqua. Bought a house, knocked it down and decided to rebuild. That was in the early 2000’s. First builder walked out on them. By the time they finished, it cost them 1 1/2 times the price. Probably more. They are silent about that one. Figure it out, the guys a lawyer and coudn’t do anything about it.
“I will not vote for either of those two criminal scumbags.”
I like it when you talk like this. More please.
I wonder how many guns Joyce owns.
Moose 58 – there is an insurmountable portion of the electorate in this country that are beyond reasoning with.
See Montclair c2012
There were some good homes for sale in 1991/1992 but most were cash deals. Even today, good deals come and go in a flash for cash for people with established relationships with brokers and banks. Joe Schmo looking on MLS and needing a mortgage aint getting the good ones.
89 – i hear she has a great set of guns!
(92)
Good relationship with broker=time tested investor or personal friend. If you’re outside that circle or just a one-timer, forget about it. And as I have said before, the best deals come when you knock on doors yourself. It seems many on this forum refuse to even consider alternatives, thinking the MLS will be the answer to their prayers. Bunker mentality and peeping thru two dimension holes, i.e., the internet, will not get you the property you want at the price you want.
The old adage, for investors, is that you lock in the profit when you buy, not when you sell.
#73 gary: Wash Twp, Hillsdale, Mid Park, Oradell. My needs and wants may be different than yours, but I am looking in the 350ish range.
Who let this one slip out?
“It’s a QE world,” “We’re all just trading in it.”
A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests that the bulk of equity returns for more than a decade are due to actions by the US central bank.
Theoretically, the S&P 500 [.SPX 1353.73 18.97 (+1.42%) ] would be more than 50 percent lower—at the 600 level—if the bullish price action preceding Fed announcements was excluded, the study showed.
Posted on the New York Fed’s web site Wednesday, the study sought out to explain why equities receive such a high premium over less risky assets such as bonds.
What they found was that the Federal Reserve [cnbc explains] has had an outsized impact on equities relative to other asset classes.
For example, the market has a tendency to rise in the 24-hour period before the release of the Fed’s statement on interest rates and the economy, presumably on expectations Chairman Ben Bernanke and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, would discuss or implement a stimulus measure to lift asset prices.
The FOMC has released eight announcements a year at 2:15 ET since 1994. The study took the gains in the S&P 500 from 2 pm the day before the announcement to 2 pm the day of the statement and subtracted that market move from the S&P 500’s total return over that time span.
Without the gains in anticipation of a positive Fed action, the S&P 500 would stand at just 600 today, rather than above 1300.
“I would conclude that correctly analyzing Fed moves is much more important than stock picking,” said Brian Kelly of Shelter Harbor Capital. “If you want to generate alpha, you should trade the stock market 24 hours before an FOMC meeting. Simply follow the trend for that 24 hours and you will outperform.”
The chart shows the effect to be significantly pronounced in the aftermath of the tech bubble when Greenspan re-inflated stock and housing prices by slashing rates. It widens even further in the period since the financial crisis of 2008 as the market became beholden to the Fed’s use of its balance sheet to add liquidity to the market.
Rest Here
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48165921
re # 87 – Joyce he is the real deal, that scares me more than the guy lighting up Newports on the White House Balcony at night.
For ChiFi and the bond gurus, I have some outsized gains on a bunch of TIPS I bought a few years ago, should I sell or hold?
This is a very silly place.
I’m focusing on the Pascack region. For a half a million f*cking dollars, I should at least be able to say “oooh” on at least 1 out of 20 houses. It’s more like “ugh!”
97 – the “real deal?” elaborate please.
seif – Real Deal teetotalers? Have you never met one before? Do you think they have a more open or closed mind? And another question what do you think of a man who thinks he knows right from wrong all the time?
Another question for you. Do you expect Romney to push aside his personal beliefs or incorporate them into his decision making process?
#100 Gary, with everything you know, why do you want to still buy here!!
102 – was just curious what aspect of it you were referring to; so you think, if elected, he will try to make alcohol illegal or what? i am just trying to grasp what you think the result of him being a teetotaler will be.
No need to rush, but next year you are getting hit with the Obama Care tax plus maybe higher tax rates so selling some this year makes sense. Once Europe starts to settle down and we have a new prez in 2013 may be less fear factor.
1987 Condo buyer says:
July 13, 2012 at 1:34 pm
For ChiFi and the bond gurus, I have some outsized gains on a bunch of TIPS I bought a few years ago, should I sell or hold?
Condo [103],
You’re right! I really, really must be out of my f*cking mind. For hours, all I’ve been sifting through is one 550K plus piece of sh1t after another. It’s absolutely horrendous. These sellers are still… still smoking copius amounts of diesel with theses asking prices.
Here you go, JJ:
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/07/12/are-modern-men-manly-enough
PFG Head Arrested
“UPDATE: Suicide note details added:
•*WASENDORF SAID HE USED PHOTOSHOP, SCANNER IN FORGERY, U.S. SAYS
•*WASENDORF SAID CHOICE WAS GO OUT OF BUSINESS OR CHEAT: U.S.
•*WASENDORF’S STATEMENTS MADE IN SUICIDE NOTE, PROSECUTORS SAY
•*PEREGRINE’S WASENDORF SAID `I HAVE COMMITTED FRAUD,’ U.S. SAYS
While unable to successfully kill himself, it appears the CEO of PFGBest is even less successful at evading the police. As just reported,
•*PFGBEST’S WASENDORF ARRESTED IN IOWA
•*FED PROSECUTORS CHARGE IOWA FIRM CEO W/ LYING TO REGULATORS:AP
•*PEREGRINE CHIEF WASENDORF CHARGED BY FEDERAL PROSECUTORS (with making false statements to the CFTC)
•*WASENDORF FRAUD AT PEREGRINE LASTED 20 YEARS, PROSECUTORS SAY”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/pfg-head-arrested#comments
And Jonny C is sunning himself in the Hamptons :)
A close commute to New York City and home to some of the most top-rated schools in the state, northern New Jersey’s desirable real estate remains out-of-reach for many house hunters. Last year, median-income households would have needed a 24% raise to afford purchasing a single-family home, according to the latest metro data by the NAR. Nationally, median households had nearly double the money they needed to buy a home.
Residents pay $529 extra in mortgage payments on average than they do in rent, according to Marcus & Millichap, a real-estate investment brokerage firm. Owners also pay high property taxes: Bergen and Essex counties, both in north N.J., are among the most expensive areas for property taxes in the U.S., charging a median $8,200 to nearly $9,000, according to 2009 data (the latest available) from the Tax Foundation. (National median property taxes were $1,917.)
In some cases, sellers who are trying to unload their homes are also offering them for rent at a cheaper cost. In Ho Ho Kus, N.J., a nearly 11,000-square-foot home is on sale for $754,000, but it’s also up for rent at $3,700 a month. A buyer who makes a 10% down payment and signs up for a 30-year mortgage at a 3.7% rate would pay $3,123 a month on the loan in addition to nearly $11,000 in property taxes for a total of about $4,020 a month.
In Englewood Cliffs, about a 15-minute drive from Manhattan, a four-bedroom, three-bath single-family home is listed for sale at $699,000 and for rent at $3,000 a month. Under the same terms, an owner would pay about $3,410 a month on the mortgage payment and property taxes.
Shore #62: Good points all. Perhaps it is because we stopped innovating and making things and became a nation of middlemen. The health insurance industry is a perfect example. What is their value added, really?
Men like Rmoney become wealthy not by actually doing anything, but by moving money around. Now it’s all about amassing more money that doesn’t even mean anything…and those who aren’t yet in The Club will never get there…and probably won’t even be able to have a toehold in the society in which they grew up.
I look at my neighbors’ kids — nice kids all, they ride their bikes and play basketball and play in their pool and enjoy their childhood, and I think “This is as good as it’s ever going to be for you.” And it’s heartbreaking.
We can’t have high-speed rail because we don’t want to pay for it. We can’t make cars or widgets or clothes here because someone in the hinterlands of China will do it for 50 cents a day. Everything is a race to the bottom. The markets want “certainty”, but innovation is never certain, and neither is business. And no politician, not Obama, not Romney, not the other favorite of the oligarchs, Jeb Bush, can give them that.
And this will continue until like the Soviet Union we collapse under our own inertia.
From yesterday discussion:
Is a strong dollar good for America?
Its a strong dollar,I sell widgets.In the US they will sell it to me at $2.If I go to Japan they will sell it to me for 100 yen.If exchange rate $1 = 100 yen .I go to Japan give them $1 they give me 100 yen pay my 100 yen widget go back to US happy.
Dollar went crashing lost 50% of its value against the yen (extreme).I go to Japan ,exchange $1 they give me 50 yen but the widget is 100 yen.So I give them $1 dollar more for another 50 yen.Now it cost me $2 to pay for the widget.I go back to the US and my boss say,why go to all that trouble,they can make the widget here in the US for $2.
So Japan not happy, lost my business,go to the treasury and buy billions of US debt to raise the value of the dollar.The cycle goes on and on.
As long as the dollar is in its stature and the US economy remains on the top 3 ,we can keep printing and this countries will keep on buying our debt.They will not care if that paper has no value.
Want to tax someone heavily? Tax the income of skimmers like Romney at a 90% rate.
Good for whom in America?
1. consumers pay $1 (100 yen) for your widget made in Japan
2. FED inflates/debases currency so now it costs $2 (100 yen) for your widget but made in US
3. consumers now pay a 100% tax on that widget thanks to the FED
Is a weak dollar good for American (people)?
#10 Jill: Are you familar with Wilts Ave in Hillsdale?
Jill [110];
We can’t have high-speed rail because we don’t want to pay for it.
Yes, you’re right. We don’t want to pay for it. If we did, there would be a market demand for it. Andrew Carnegie and railroad tycoons and all that.
Instead, we get unions cozying up to politicians who think it would be a grand idea to take some money from lots of people to have nice things; unions who want jobs for their memebrs and kickbacks for themselves.
You know, if we even got a high speed railroad for a market cost to build it, it wouldn’t be all that bad. But what we will end up with is inferior goods at exhorbitant prices. Exhibit A — Boston’s Big Dig:
>The Big Dig was the most expensive highway project in the U.S. and was plagued by escalating costs, scheduling overruns, leaks, design flaws, charges of poor execution and use of substandard materials, criminal arrests,[2][3] and even four deaths.[4] The project was scheduled to be completed in 1998[5] at an estimated cost of $2.8 billion (in 1982 dollars, US$6.0 billion adjusted for inflation as of 2006[update]).[6] The project was not completed, however, until December 2007, at a cost of over $14.6 billion ($8.08 billion in 1982 dollars)[6]as of 2006[update].[7] The Boston Globe estimated that the project will ultimately cost $22 billion, including interest, and that it will not be paid off until 2038.[8]<
Billions spent; money for everyone with their hand out from union racketeers to art musems or some such tripe — AND — after all that, all the money and years pissed away, the damn ceiling pannels were falling on the road.
#05 Europe ain’t settling down any time soon.
H@rdcore nompounder:
BURIEN, Wash. (AP) — Before he killed his wife and teen daughter and retreated to a remote bunker in Washington’s Cascade Mountains, Peter Keller recorded a video explaining his mindset: He was bored.
“It’s getting to the point where just trying to live and pay bills and live as a civilian and go to work, that just freaks me out,” the 41-year-old survivalist said in a video clip released Thursday by the King County Sheriff’s Office. “It’s actually more comfortable for me to think about living out here, robbing banks and pharmacies, just taking what I want for as long as I can. At least it’ll be exciting.”
Keller shot his wife, Lynnettee, and his 18-year-old daughter, Kaylene, at their home in North Bend, east of Seattle, in April. He set canisters of gasoline on the kitchen stove, turned it on, and headed to a fortified, camouflaged bunker he had spent the past eight years building into the steep, thickly forested slope of Rattlesnake Ridge. King County sheriff’s detectives spent days trying to figure out where he was.
They narrowed down his hiding spot with tips from the public, who had seen Keller’s red pickup at the Rattlesnake Ridge trailhead; a photo taken from the bunker that showed outlet stores in the distance; and the work of trackers who saw his boot-prints in the muddy ground. Keller killed himself as dozens of SWAT officers moved in — an outcome he predicted in his video.
109 – JJ, Englewood Cliffs schools are shite. You would likely have to add in private school costs as well.
Why are you paying higher tax on a useless toilet paper dollar that you printed to pay japan that they will accept.no question
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/07/state_legislature_wants_immigr.html
Free tuition for the kids, America where everything is free. These DBags are giving the country away. Walk the streets ,its a disgrace . These POS should be deported
#02 Juice: I knew a lot of Mormons, nice people, but they are certainly out there in my opinion.
Want to start a bourgeois riot in Midtown? Cut off the free drink line at Starbucks 5 minutes early. Not pretty.
as long as that cycle goes on they will not care
Meat,
You know I looked into purchasing a gun several years ago. I stopped looking abruptly when I confirmed that in NJ “Individuals must be fingerprinted when applying for a Firearms Purchaser Identification Card or a Permit to Purchase a Handgun.” Where is the ACLU standing up for my 4th amendment rights to be “secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects” ?
Also, in NJ it’s near impossible to get a carry permit (and in NJ open/concealed carry are identical in terms of permits and restrictions). But no worries, you can have one in your car…
“Firearms shall be carried unloaded and contained in a closed and fastened case, gunbox, securely tied package, or locked in the trunk of the automobile in which it is being transported. Ammunition must be transported in a separate container and locked in the trunk of the automobile in which it is being transported.If the vehicle does not have a compartment separate from the passenger compartment, the firearm must be in a locked container other than the vehicle’s glove compartment or console.”
Terrific! Excuse me, Mr. car-thief, while I get out of the car, open the trunk, open the gun case, take the gun lock off, find the separate container of ammunition, load then gun… Ok, now I’m ready to defend myself.
#00 gary: At that price range you should find some nice ones in Oradell if that might be a consideration.
Was that english? I have no idea what you are trying to say.
I said that individuals will have to pay double what they were paying (whether they go with that product domestically or internationally) which is identical in point of fact to a 100% tax increase.
119.yo says:
July 13, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Why are you paying higher tax on a useless toilet paper dollar that you printed to pay japan that they will accept.no question
What do you think we have been paying our debtors for so many years? A dignified dollar?
gary Also River Vale, a good few lsitings there in the 550K range that look decent.
#106, my next move is out of state….
If I sell my widget to you for $3 with a strong dollar why do I need to increase my price now that the dollar has depreciated and I am buying it in the US?
But who cares, right yo? Inflation is not theft.
Did anyone else see the question/answer session on that Krugman beatdown video earlier in the week? Some person asked him if inflation was theft. He responded as smugly as he always does, that there was never a guarantee for your purchasing power.
He acts as if inflation is stealing value from the dollar and giving it to the poor. Problem is that the printed money only goes to the government and their crony capitalist colluders. The banksters pocked most of it and then the government just uses the rest to buy votes and payoff their supporters, not to help the middle class or poor.
https://www.efanniemae.com/lc/sir/pdf/manacqproperties.pdf
interesting checklist of what fannie mae does when they take back a property
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/07/13/Top-Ten-Felons-In-Obamas%20Life
10 Dirt Bags in Barry O’s life. Johnny C makes the Cut.
Ok listen up this time.
According to you, I can buy the item in Japan for the equivalent of $1 or in the US for $2. Now the FED inflates… and I can buy in Japan for the equivalent of $2 or in the US for $2.
Correct? That was your example.
Now me the consumer has to pay $2 for the same thing just a moment ago I was paying $1 for… GET IT?
You just stole from everyone? My paycheck and my savings are worth less and soon to be WORTHLESS if these policies continue.
130.yo says:
July 13, 2012 at 3:38 pm
If I sell my widget to you for $3 with a strong dollar why do I need to increase my price now that the dollar has depreciated and I am buying it in the US?
(115)
Moose,
Big Dig… Did you catch this?
“The Boston Globe estimated that the project will ultimately cost $22 billion, including interest, and that it will not be paid off until 2038.[8] As a result of the deaths, leaks, and other design flaws, the consortium that oversaw the project agreed to pay $407 million in restitution, and several smaller companies agreed to pay a combined sum of approximately $51 million.[9]”
458 / 22,000 = 2%
Not enough information to answer your question….need duration of each, size, and your alternative….
1987 Condo buyer says:
July 13, 2012 at 1:34 pm
For ChiFi and the bond gurus, I have some outsized gains on a bunch of TIPS I bought a few years ago, should I sell or hold?
adding…expensive to unload a position, so you need to consider how much you are paying to get out versus time left, then what you will swap into…..
http://rt.com/usa/news/city-smoking-smoke-monica-154/
Do you think they could get this passed in Jersey City,Edgewater,North Bergen?
No smoking in your apartment. What’s next ? No soda,or ice cream
As H.L. Mencken wrote:
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
Jill says:
July 13, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Shore #62:
The health insurance industry is a perfect example. What is their value added, really?
Disagree. The health industry has done a number of really disgusting things, but shining a light on hospital and practitioner fraud and waste is not one of them.
Men like Rmoney become wealthy not by actually doing anything, but by moving money around.
Disagree. I am not going to defend him, but the knowledge and discipline to do what he did is not easily found.
I look at my neighbors’ kids — nice kids all, they ride their bikes and play basketball and play in their pool and enjoy their childhood, and I think “This is as good as it’s ever going to be for you.” And it’s heartbreaking.
Disagree. They can choose a life of mediocrity, mentored by their parents’ lack of vision, discipline and discretion, and inculcated by the neighbors and friends, or they can transcend it.
We can’t have high-speed rail because we don’t want to pay for it. We can’t make cars or widgets or clothes here because someone in the hinterlands of China will do it for 50 cents a day.
Disagree. We are in the mindst of a correction in compensation, but it won’t last forever. People have to step up and demand better for themselves through personal effort.
Everything you need to know….
WSJ
“One just can’t get the staff these days.” That was a common complaint in well-to-do Edwardian drawing rooms. But it also is heard today in Texas and Louisiana, albeit likely in somewhat less-clipped tones.
That was the warning Thursday from a panelist at a New America Foundation discussion on energy independence in Washington. John Hofmeister, founder of Citizens for Affordable Energy and a former president of Shell Oil Co., said there are 100,000 jobs going begging in the U.S. oil industry for want of qualified personnel. Part of the problem is that educational institutions aren’t churning out enough potential employees.
As ever, it isn’t just a question of quantity, but also quality. Mr. Hofmeister said that talking to people in the oil patch, he hears them say they “can’t find machinists, can’t find truck drivers, can’t find people who can pass the drug test.”
Joyce. Totally correct. Financial repression and ZIRP is making sure that the government’s needs come first, and then after that, the central planners at the Fed allow the big banks to feed first on the newly created funny money, creating the spread that pays banker salaries. Derivatives are frosting on the cake, losses funded by taxpayers, and ultimately fiat money too. Both government and banks conspire in fiat money regimes to make sure that savers are funding their expenses, whether they like it or not. That way government can eat your cash about 3% per year, even if you stash it under the mattress.
Krugman is just a useful idiot. He doesn’t even know he’s a pawn of various central planners, because he stumbled upon his Keynesian idiocy on his own.
re # 104 – Will we go back to prohibition? No but history does rhyme, perhaps they via the FDA will just lower alcohol content to zilch.Romney was campaigning on gutting finance regulations again, specifically Dodd Frank as one of his first acts as president. Top of his to-do list for first term. Anyone who has been at least fogging a mirror in this country for the last five years should know this is in itself a bad idea, and then you get someone who actually thinks and believes with their every living breath that they are infallible and they are never wrong and there is no room for any kind of debate and we have a recipe for disaster.
I don’t even think we will have debates this time around.
JJ et al – anyone know anything or ever lease from these guys – XS Auto Leasing
http://www.xsleasing.com/
are they reputable or do they pull BS when you walk into their offices – some of their prices are pretty aggressive.
Joyce,
Here is the story again,
I add the retail part
Its a strong dollar,I sell widgets.In the US they will sell it to me at $2. And selll it retail for $3.If I go to Japan they will sell it to me for 100 yen.If exchange rate $1 = 100 yen .I go to Japan give them $1 they give me 100 yen pay my 100 yen widget go back to US happy.
Dollar went crashing lost 50% of its value against the yen (extreme).I go to Japan ,exchange $1 they give me 50 yen but the widget is 100 yen.So I give them $1 dollar more for another 50 yen.Now it cost me $2 to pay for the widget.I go back to the US and my boss say,why go to all that trouble,they can make the widget here in the US for $2.
So,I buy the product in the US for $2 and sell it retail for $3.WHERE DID I STEAL FROM YOU?
So Japan not happy, lost my business,go to the treasury and buy billions of US debt to raise the value of the dollar.The cycle goes on and on.
As long as the dollar is in its stature and the US economy remains on the top 3 ,we can keep printing and this countries will keep on buying our debt.They will not care if that paper has no value
Its a strong dollar,I sell widgets.In the US they will sell it to me at $2. And selll it retail for $3.If I go to Japan they will sell it to me for 100 yen.If exchange rate $1 = 100 yen .I go to Japan give them $1 they give me 100 yen pay my 100 yen widget go back to US happy. I sell the widget for $3 retail consumer happy.
Go back to story
Ok first of all … you Keynesian idiots live in a bubble and you think by inflating/debasing the currency by 50% the ONLY thing that will change is that one thing, or small group of things you aimed for… and completely disregard the unintended consequences (of which we’re not sure what they’ll be but we’re certain there will be some).
And to precisely answer your question… whomever the purchaser is in your fairy tale just paid double what they used to pay ($2 vs $1).
Seriously, we talking 1’s and 2’s … this is like first grade math.
[Friday, after working till almost midnight all week = me and name calling]
Ok again,we will agree to disagree.Forget I ruined your day.
And need I say (I probably do), a strong or weak currency is relative to one another, of course.
We want to strive for a stable monetary unit, and allow innovation and productivity enhancements (probably causing very slight price declines in real terms in the long term) to improve our standard of living.
147
Ok then, if you disagree with the fact that 2 is greater than 1… that will have to be it.
Joyce/Yo,
Relax and use your worthless fiat to trade for some Beer. Crack one open and enjoy life.
Or, we can all just embrace the Henry Hill doctrine:
For us to live any other way was nuts. Uh, to us, those goody-good people who worked sh1tty jobs for bum paychecks and took the subway to work every day, and worried about their bills, were dead. I mean they were suck.ers. They had no b@lls. If we wanted something we just took it. If anyone complained twice they got hit so bad, believe me, they never complained again.
Fcuk it all…it’s all going down the tubes, anyway.
Here is the counterpoint to the two articles in Grim’s original post today:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/07/realtytrac-corelogic-confirm-housing-bear-thesis-85-90-of-reo-being-held-off-market-meaning-tight-inventories-are-bogus.html
Friday, July 13, 2012
RealtyTrac, CoreLogic Confirm Housing Bear Thesis: 85-90% of REO Being Held Off Market, Meaning “Tight” Inventories Are Bogus
We’ve been mystified with the housing bull argument that things really are getting better. While real estate is always and ever local, and some markets may indeed be on the upswing, there are ample reasons to doubt the idea that an overall housing recovery is in. For instance, the recent FHFA inspector general report stated:
Further, general distress in the housing sector will likely continue to result in elevated REO inventories. For example, the Enterprises’ financial data indicate that, as of the end of 2011, more than 1.1 million mortgages held or guaranteed by the Enterprises were “seriously delinquent,” i.e., were 90 or more days past due. At that time, the volume of seriously delinquent mortgages was more than six times the size of the Enterprises’ REO inventories
Reader MBS Guy noted:
My rough calculation of their REO and delinquency numbers would indicate that they will have about 300,000 new REOs (acquisitions, in their parlance) per year for the next three years, assuming their isn’t a surge in new defaulters from their portfolio (ie – just using the loans currently seriously delinquent). They also report 179,000 properties currently in REO (end of 2011).
If they maintain their 2011 rate of REO dispositions at 353,000, the pipeline would be largely cleared in about 3 years. If they are able to increase the pace a bit, perhaps the inventory clears in 2-2.5 years.
Either way, it is very likely that about 1 million REO properties will be disposed of by the GSEs over the next 2-3 years. Over the last 3 years, they have disposed of about 833,216 REOs.
What will the impact on home prices be in the rate of REO disposition in the next 3 years matches or exceeds the rate of disposition of the last 3 years? I’d expect that it will be pretty negative.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimpowell/2012/07/10/why-long-term-unemployment-has-doubled-under-president-obama/?utm_source=forbespicks%3Dpartner%3Dforbespicks%3Dforbespicks&google_editors_picks=true
“The media has focused on prolonged unemployment over 8 percent, while generally downplaying a shocker: the soaring number of people unemployed for more than 6 months.
“According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, back in January 2009 when Barack Obama was sworn in, there were 2.6 million people unemployed for more than 6 months. By June 2012, the ranks of the long-term jobless soared more than 100 percent to 5.3 million.”
snip
From the same article:
As extended unemployment benefits finally expired, large numbers of out-of-work people have applied for Social Security disability benefits.
Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration acknowledged that “when people become unemployed, they seek a way to continue having income. So, we had an increase in the number of applications and the number of people receiving benefits.”
The Social Security Administration reported that in May 2012, the latest period for which statistics are available, more than 10 million people were receiving disability benefits at an annual rate of about $130 billion. These people, incidentally, aren’t counted among the unemployed – another way the unemployment rate under-states the severity of our current crisis.
Reportedly many of the applications for disability benefits have been based on claimed mental illness. It’s difficult to independently verify such claims. Even when a claim is about a physical condition, there is no medical test for pain – doctors must rely on what patients report. During the last calendar year, there were 2.9 million applications, and about 35 percent were awarded benefits.
Here’s the thing about the REOs, even the ones in the “good”, “its can’t happen here” neighborhoods: they are sh!t. If they weren’t sh!t they would have sold for more money as short sales. I’ve seen at least three squarely in my target area that could not be fixed up for less than the difference to market price.
Krugman is no pawn. He’s a multimillionaire multiple times over. Kinda impressive for an academic who owns no patents and contributes nothing to society. I live down the road from him and his house is massive and he pays $50k a year in taxes. I wrote a hit piece on Krugman a few years back that got published on Mises.org that went viral and exposed him. Basically, I dug up about 10 to 15 quotes that totally exposed him. I pretty much inadvertently started the whole lets dig up every bad quote of Krugman’s 10 years ago craze.
Providing a counterbalance to Austrian craze is enough of a contribution to society. For that matter, if your economic ideas are implemented in full in one specific country (the U.S.) while everyone else in the world is laughing at you, the road for the former middle class to meet the quality of life of its Indian peers will be shortened by an order of magnitude. I spent several months in India, I don’t want to be a part of such society, thank you very much.
Ben,
link to your piece?
Nice strawman, cobbler.
(158)
If the United States returned to something resembling a free market, protecting the rule of law (equally), enforcing contracts, and had a stable monetary system… domestic and international investment would flourish unrelentlessly here in the US. Why? because you can’t find those conditions anywhere else.
So basically, the exact opposite of what you said.
joyce [161]
It is sheer nonsense. Totally free capital always goes to the place with the lowest costs. Now, it is pouring into Myanmar that just opened up for the international investment after the sanctions had been lifted. When we have people stateside desperate enough to work for a buck a day, we’ll have a flood of investment, whether we have rule of law at this point or not
Libertarian economic ideals are good and dandy if you lived on an island with no ports – although, I confess not to like seeing beggars and homeless children in the streets, anyway. In a globalized world with multiple mercantilist players putting these concepts to work in one country is a surefire way to quickly kill off whatever is left of its economy and quality of life. I guess, the idea is that once we don’t have the economy any longer, we can start building a new one from the scratch, right?
An acquaintance and her husband just got a 30% increase in their Montclair property taxes. No kids…
Best MLS property description ever:
THIS COULD BE MISTAKEN FOR AN AVERAGE RANCH UNTIL YOU OPEN THE FRONT DOOR AND PASS THROUGH THE ENTRANCE FOYER WHICH TAKES YOU INTO A WIDE OPEN LIVING ROOM WITH A FIREPLACE SO INVITING IT COULD ALMOST DRAW YOU TO THE NEAREST LOG TO START A FIRE.
So, the owner is asking you for a match?
So, the owner is asking you for a match?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303740704577523541037952090.html
George Shultz has one of the most preposterously impressive résumés in recent American history. World War II Marine (1942-45); distinguished academic economist; business executive; secretary of labor (1969-70); director of the Office of Management and Budget (1970-72); secretary of the Treasury (1972-74); chairman of Ronald Reagan’s economic transition team; and the secretary of state (1982-89) who wound down the Cold War.
snip
When I called out of the blue on Wednesday morning, the 91-year-old éminence grise was in his office at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and willing to meet for an interview that afternoon.
The executive summary? On the economy: “We have some big problems in this country.” He’s very concerned about debt, and about monetary, tax and regulatory policy. On foreign policy: “We’re weaker, much weaker” abroad than we were two decades ago.
But despite it all, Mr. Shultz is confident that if we get the policies right again, America can regain its footing: “When Ronald Reagan took office, inflation was in the teens, the prime rate was in the 20s, and the economy was going nowhere. We still had the remnants of wage and price controls, particularly in oil and gas. And Jimmy Carter said we were in ‘malaise.’ It was a bad time. I’m convinced the economy can be turned around because I watched Ronald Reagan do it.”
“It took long-term thinking,” Mr. Shultz emphasizes. “I’ll give you an example. [Reagan] knew and we all advised him you can’t have a decent economy with the kind of inflation we’ve got. . . . The political people would come in and say ‘You’ve got to be careful, Mr. President. There’s gonna be a recession [if the Federal Reserve tightens the money supply]. You’re gonna lose seats in the midterm election.’
“And he basically said, ‘If not us who? If not now when?’ And he held a political umbrella over [Fed Chairman] Paul Volcker, and Paul did what needed to be done. And by late ’82 early ’83, inflation was under control, the tax changes that he made were kicking in, and the economy took off. But it took a politician with an ability to take a short-term hit in order to get the long-run results that we needed.”
Is inflation a primary threat today? Not an immediate one, says Mr. Shultz, “but it’s a building problem because of all this liquidity that’s being stored up. . . . They [the Fed] think their contribution to doing something about [our economic troubles] is very easy money. Well, by this time money is very easy. It doesn’t have to get any easier. . . . It takes other things to get the economy going—not more money.”
Mr. Shultz dwells at length on the national debt, and on the Fed’s role in enabling it: “It’s startling that in the last year, three-quarters of the debt that’s been issued has been bought by the Fed and the balance has been bought by other countries, so U.S. citizens and institutions are not on net buying U.S. debt. . . . The Fed doesn’t have an unlimited capacity because when it buys the debt what it’s doing is monetizing the debt. Sooner or later that has got to get out into the economy. Can’t be held forever. And when it does in that kind of volume—as Milton Friedman taught us, inflation is a monetary phenomenon—it’s gonna be hard to control.”
As Mr. Shultz sees it, there is plenty of empirical evidence about which policies promote growth and which don’t.
“I think the things that need to be done are sort of in the air, and you almost feel as if everybody knows what they are,” he says. “It’s quite apparent that we need to have another round of the 1986 tax act. That is, clean out the preferences and lower the rates. . . . It’s also not a mystery that our corporate tax rate is way too high and there are preferences there that could be cleaned out.”
For Mr. Shultz, the tax issue is not just about rates—though he believes lower rates often produce more revenue than higher ones, and “it’s the revenues you’re looking for”—but about predictability.
He asks me what sports I like. “Let’s talk about football. . . . You want to know the rules and have an impartial referee, but you also want to make sure somebody isn’t going to come along and change the rules in the middle of the game. . . . Now it’s as though we have all these people who have money on the sidelines and we say ‘Come on and play the game,’ and they say ‘Well what are the rules?’ and we say ‘We’ll tell you later.’ And what about the referee? Well, we’re still struggling for who that’s gonna be. . . . That’s not an environment designed to get people to play.”
Mr. Shultz cites the handling of the auto bankruptcies as an important deviation from rules-based economic policy. The question was “are we gonna have a political bankruptcy or a rule-of-law bankruptcy? Political bankruptcy was chosen. So the result is that the unions got paid off and the regular creditors didn’t.”
He also cites Washington’s “habit of passing bills that are thousands of pages long and you know most legislators haven’t even read what they’re voting for.”
That would be ObamaCare, of course. “I fear that the approach to controlling costs in the health-care business is moving more and more to a wage-and-price-control approach. And one thing you know from experience is when you control the price of something, you end up getting less of it. So if you control the price of health-care providers, you will have fewer of them and that’s gonna wind up as a crisis. The most vivid expression of that . . . was Jimmy Carter’s gas lines.”
Experience. Examples. Evidence. Shultz themes.
As we turn to foreign policy, the national debt again looms large: “Now remember something. Alexander Hamilton, our first secretary of the Treasury, and a very good one, redeemed all of the Revolutionary War debt at par value, and he said the ‘full faith and credit’ of the United States must be inviolate, among other reasons because it will be necessary in a crisis to be able to borrow. And we saw ourselves through the Civil War because we were able to borrow. We saw ourselves able to defeat the Nazis and the Japanese because we were able to borrow. We’ve got ourselves now to the point where if we suddenly had to finance another very big event of some kind, it would be hard to do it. We are exhausting our borrowing capacity.”
Mr. Shultz is not an alarmist about the rising power of China. He believes Chinese leaders understand their interest in having good relations with the United States. He is withering in his critique of those who would blame cheap Chinese labor or a cheap Chinese currency for U.S. economic problems:
“We are consuming more than we produce and we’ve done that a while and we’re complaining about the fact that we have an imbalance of trade with China. But if you consume more than you produce, you have to import. It’s just arithmetic. And if you spend more than you earn, you have to borrow. It’s just arithmetic.”
Mr. Shultz is more concerned about the Middle East, an area where he concedes even the Reagan administration struggled, “just like everybody.” So what would he do about the threat of an Iranian bomb? Is he concerned we haven’t seized the current opportunity to weaken Iran’s ally in Damascus?
“[Syrian President Bashar al-Assad] and the Iranians have been a strategic adversary. Gadhafi was sort of a tactical adversary. . . . I think I would have said to the Turks, ‘I see you are providing safe havens on your border and probably you could use some help. We’re there with you.'”
He also thinks we can have a deterrent effect without major military strikes. He recalls an episode from the 1980s when the U.S. Navy became aware of Iranian efforts to mine the Persian Gulf: “We boarded the ship. Took off some mines for evidence. Took off the sailors, sank the ship. Took the sailors to Dubai, I believe, and said to the Iranians ‘Come and get your sailors and cut it out.'”
What about Mitt Romney? Is he running on the right themes? Will he have a mandate if he wins?
“He made one speech that I thought was outstanding, addressing a long-term problem. And that was the speech about K-12 education, and he pointed out the degree to which the United States is falling back. . . . We know that economic growth in the long run is correlated to education achievement.”
Could he recommend one book for Mr. Romney to read this summer? “This book that John Taylor”—the Stanford economist and Mr. Shultz’s colleague at Hoover—”has just published, ‘First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America’s Prosperity.’ You don’t have to spend weeks reading it.”
Mr. Shultz also mentions the memo his economic transition team wrote for President-elect Ronald Reagan in 1980, recently excerpted in The Wall Street Journal (“Advice for a New President,” May 26): “If you just took that and put that into effect again, then we’d be in business.”
I try hard to pull Mr. Shultz back toward despair. Aren’t we an older, more poorly educated society than the one that climbed out of similar debt after World War II?
“Well, we gotta get after these things! Somehow people are locking into the idea of chronological age. There’s another way of calculating age. That is what is the probability of your dying within the year. If you use that way of calculating, people who are 75 today on that basis are 65 as of some earlier time. . . . We need to gear our retirement system in such a way that people keep working longer.”
He suggests ending Social Security taxes for people who have paid in for 40 years. The way to meet our demographic challenge is to keep people in the labor force longer, Mr. Shultz says, and not fall for European notions that there is some fixed amount of work to be divided up. “The trick is to keep expanding the pie.”
We end on some wistful and optimistic notes. “There’s no lack of creativity in the United States.” Silicon Valley, he says, “is a giant Stanford spinoff.” He waxes lyrical for a moment about Steve Jobs. “My wife tells a story,” he says about a party with Jobs’s wife. “[My wife] says well ‘Where’s Steve?'” “Steve is thinking. He’s decided to take six months off and think” is the response. “He was a creative genius,” adds Mr. Shultz with admiration.
Shultz conservatism is not dour, budget-balancing conservatism. Nor was Reagan’s. It is a belief in the human spirit.
And, of course, in economic policies based on evidence. As the interview closes, I am treated to a song—not a note out of place—that was sung by the secretary on Milton Friedman’s 90th birthday:
snip
The only problem with guys like Shultz is that they are old, dying and not too many of them are left who have the energy and insight to contribute. The current TPTB are a bunch of fascist, collectivist thieves who don’t care a bit whether they bankrupt the world…as long as they and theirs concentrate power and wealth and subjugate everyone else.
Clot,
Here is the link to the transition memo article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204880404577225870253766212.html
“The current TPTB are a bunch of fascist, collectivist thieves who don’t care a bit whether they bankrupt the world…as long as they and theirs concentrate power and wealth and subjugate everyone else.”
David brooks had a recent column just about on this point.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/13/opinion/brooks-why-our-elites-stink.html
Question –
In Berkeley Heights, I see that houses beyond the railway line are kind of priced lower. Do you know why that could be? Also, is there back up near the railway line when the gates close to let the train through?
thanks
Joyce, http://mises.org/daily/3691
joyce says:
July 12, 2012 at 10:51 am
Only one european country actually went through with their austerity, and that was Iceland. They told the banksters to go F off; they protected the depositors; they cut back government spending to align with taxes (OMG what a horrible idea!)… and what happened? They had a nasty QUICK recession and are growing again.
yo says:
July 12, 2012 at 11:40 am
Iceland is more Keynesian than Austerity
joyce says:
July 13, 2012 at 1:14 am
A) I did no such thing. They did what was necessary and mathematically the correct thing. Which is what I said earlier, and also that mathematical properties do not change when the numbers get larger.
B) Read above
_________________
Being an Icelander living in NJ.
What really happened:
1. Iceland told international bankers to F off.
2. Put in place extremely strict Foreign Exchange rules ($1500 max for business trips or vacations outside of the country and if you have $20 bill left when you come back it has to be sold back to the central bank or be prosecuted.)
3. Devalue the Krona about 50%
4. Run huge deficits, 20-40% in 2008 to 2010 (Keynesian)
The result of this is that the government stopped outflow of capital. Told foreign banks it was not responsible for private bank debt (vs. the EU/US way of socializing bank debt) and created immediately an foreign account surplus to pay for the emergency loans the government had to take out in the financial crises.
Today unemployment is under 5%,budget is balanced and the central bank has started to ease up on the foreign exchange rules.
vb [172]
Many houses on the northern side of the rail track are older (pre-WW2), small-ish and not exactly attractive-looking since before 1940s the town was mostly working-class, unlike close-by Summit and Chatham; only the portion east of Snyder Ave. (Briarwood, Lawrence and Robbins) had been developed in some organized way in 1950s-60s. Also, you may be looking at the lower priced homes close to the high voltage line or those flooded by the Irene last year. Finally, there is senior community (between Sprinfield Ave. and Passaic river) that always has tons of homes for sale which may be skewing the averages down. Objectively, kids attend the same schools, and if you want to be able to walk to shopping or public transportation if needed, you are better off north of the rail track.
vb
Yeah, and there is no back-up at the crossings (except for 4x a day when there is an extra-long train which blocks Plainfield Ave., then you have to wait 3-4 minutes or so till it pulls out), not enough traffic. If you take Snyder crossing, the wait is never longer than 1 minute.
3b #114: Yes, it runs perpendicular to Broadway. Not too far from Shop-Rite. I don’t think it’s a flood zone, it’s well north of the area around the K-Mart that flooded during the hurricane last year. I see that house you’re looking at. It’s still overpriced by at least $20K, and there’s no salvaging that kitchen…that’s a gut job to be sure. The floor plan looks a bit odd to me too from the photos. And only one bath. I’m sure it’s “loaded with potential” but I’m guessing you’d have to be prepared to sink some $$$ into it. The location, though, is fine.
The only thing that gives me hope is the thought that the tipping point will eventually be reached, and shills like Krugman will hang in the public square.
Every sitting member of Kongress, the Supreme Court and the Executive Branch should be brought up on articles of treason, tried, then shot.
cobbler,
thanks!
I’ve heard rumors that the high tension wire is going away in a ‘few’ years. Is that just a rumor?
Also, any idea why aftercare at Berkely school’s YMCA program is almost twice that in Summit and Warren? Would you know what parents do for aftercare?