Bubble 2.0? Not likely

From HousingWire:

Clear Capital: Price recovery in most housing markets will slow down

Despite beginning the year with market lows, most home prices gained momentum toward the end up 2012, finishing the year at 4.9% year-over-year price gains. Some markets, though they are few, may also suffer a backslide in values.

According to the latest Clear Capital home data report, national home prices are expected to increase by only 2.1% this year. The 2013 yearly gains are expected to be smaller partly because homes are starting on a higher price base, but the entire explanation is more complex than that, Clear Capital notes.

Furthermore, Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics, warns that this could change at a moment’s notice.

“The housing landscape, however, could quickly shift should the broader economy tumble back into recessionary territory,” Villacorta noted. “Whether by perception or actual decrease in buying power for the average consumer, residual effects of the fiscal cliff deal could cause housing to change course. But as it stands now, home prices have continued to show resiliency by posting their largest yearly gain in nearly two and a half years.”

The Northeast saw the lowest rate of annual growth at 1.5%. This year is projected to be very similar to 2012, with yearly gains expected to hit only 1.4%.

Only eight markets are projected to see prices fall in 2013, including Denver; Louisville, Ky.; Charlotte, N.C.; Philadelphia; Atlanta; Baltimore; Chicago and St. Louis. For those eight markets, average declines should come in at just 0.9%.

“At the end of the day, there are still plenty of great deals to be had across the country, investors looking for decent return, and pent up homebuyer demand on the verge of materializing,” Villacorta added.

The report projects that 2013 will continue to grow at a healthy pace, although the chances of a robust recovery are slim as there is less ground to make up.

“While a larger economic setback could easily change the course for the worse, current rates of growth signal the market is slowly calibrating itself to pre-bubble rates and prices,” the report concluded.

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99 Responses to Bubble 2.0? Not likely

  1. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Deadline nears for Sandy victims to request property tax reassessments

    Most years, Alan Salowe pays more than $30,000 in taxes for a one-story beach house in Mantoloking.

    This year, the’s building is uninhabitable thanks to Hurricane Sandy.

    “I have no home there now,” Salowe said. “I don’t know how they can charge taxes on a home that’s not liveable.”

    Some relief, Salowe hopes, could come in the form of a New Jersey statute designed to ease the tax burden of hurricane victims.

    Disaster-struck homeowners have only two more days to take advantage of a statute that lets them have their properties reassessed before their next tax bill. A reassessment would likely allow them to pay less for properties devastated by Hurricane Sandy.

    According to the statute, any homeowner whose property was damaged by fire or disaster between Oct. 1 and Jan. 1 of any year can apply for a reassessment. Hurricane Sandy ripped through the state in late October.

    It’s also unknown how the reassessments will affect tax revenues for local municipalities. Gillooly said. Theoretically, he said, the reassessments could force homeowners not as badly affected by Sandy to pick up more of the tax burden.

  2. Ernest Money says:

    Bulldoze the Shore. Turn it all into park and floodplain.

    Another storm WILL happen…probably soon.

  3. Ernest Money says:

    Allow flood insurance to rise to true market rates. Then, let’s see who wants to live next to water.

  4. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Rescued by a Bailout, AIG May Sue Its Savior

    Fresh from paying back a $182 billion bailout, the American International Group has been running a nationwide advertising campaign with the tagline “Thank you America.”

    Behind the scenes, the restored insurance company is weighing whether to tell the government agencies that rescued it during the financial crisis: thanks, but you cheated our shareholders.

    The board of A.I.G. will meet on Wednesday to consider joining a $25 billion shareholder lawsuit against the government, court records show. The lawsuit does not argue that government help was not needed. It contends that the onerous nature of the rescue — the taking of what became a 92 percent stake in the company, the deal’s high interest rates and the funneling of billions to the insurer’s Wall Street clients — deprived shareholders of tens of billions of dollars and violated the Fifth Amendment, which prohibits the taking of private property for “public use, without just compensation.”

  5. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  6. JJ's B.Se says:

    They tried that. It backfired. Folks just then dont take out flood insurance at all and towns and charities get hit with tons of issues when the storm comes. FEMA actually lowered rates in an attempt to get more folks to sign up and lots of folks never did. In NYS if you had less than 41,900 in damages you did better with no flood insurance. Only 1/3 of flood insurance claims have been processes, 100% of non flood insurance claims have been processed

    Ernest Money says:
    January 8, 2013 at 8:03 am

    Allow flood insurance to rise to true market rates. Then, let’s see who wants to live next to water.

  7. yome says:

    How do other countries deal with same catastrophe? Oh I forgot the US sends them US Aid.How much did we get from Countries we helped when they were in need?

    “They tried that. It backfired. Folks just then dont take out flood insurance at all and towns and charities get hit with tons of issues when the storm comes. “

  8. grim says:

    Oh please, at some point we’ll find out that the lions share of the money went to folks that were still in some phase of foreclosure, and instead of giving the check to the owner, they just put the money towards the outstanding principle on the loan.

    HA HA!

  9. Peace, Love, Dope says:

    in my best reinvestor101 voice:

    “look at this goddamn hippie! if he thinks he knows anything about guns and gun owners he’s probably just smoking too much of that wacky tobacky! we need to get rid of softie pacifists like this guy. where is sarah palin – the REAL voice of the ‘merican people – when you need her???”

    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/mcchrystal-backs-gun-restrictions-85888.html

  10. joyce says:

    Nonsense, but hey, look who I’m responding to. It’s as easy fix. If people live in disaster prone areas and don’t adequately protect themselves with a sound structure to make it through a storm and/or insurance to reimburse them after the fact… don’t bail them out. But, hey, look who I’m responding to.

    7.JJ’s B.Se says:
    January 8, 2013 at 8:27 am
    They tried that. It backfired. Folks just then dont take out flood insurance at all and towns and charities get hit with tons of issues when the storm comes. FEMA actually lowered rates in an attempt to get more folks to sign up and lots of folks never did. In NYS if you had less than 41,900 in damages you did better with no flood insurance. Only 1/3 of flood insurance claims have been processes, 100% of non flood insurance claims have been processed

    Ernest Money says:
    January 8, 2013 at 8:03 am

    Allow flood insurance to rise to true market rates. Then, let’s see who wants to live next to water.

  11. chicagofinance says:

    Well we have an answer…..Barry is fcking stupid….

    WSJ
    OPINION
    January 6, 2013, 6:21 p.m. ET
    The Education of John Boehner

    Leverage for the next clash: GOP willingness to let the spending sequester take effect

    By STEPHEN MOORE

    What stunned House Speaker John Boehner more than anything else during his prolonged closed-door budget negotiations with Barack Obama was this revelation: “At one point several weeks ago,” Mr. Boehner says, “the president said to me, ‘We don’t have a spending problem.’ ”

    The president’s insistence that Washington doesn’t have a spending problem, Mr. Boehner says, is predicated on the belief that massive federal deficits stem from what Mr. Obama called “a health-care problem.” Mr. Boehner says that after he recovered from his astonishment—”They blame all of the fiscal woes on our health-care system”—he replied: “Clearly we have a health-care problem, which is about to get worse with ObamaCare. But, Mr. President, we have a very serious spending problem.” He repeated this message so often, he says, that toward the end of the negotiations, the president became irritated and said: “I’m getting tired of hearing you say that.”
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323482504578225620234902106.html?mod=hp_opinion

  12. JJ's B.Se says:

    Trouble is that sounds good. But you would have to take away the casualty loss deduction, charitable deduction, take away FEMA funding to towns etc.

    I know folks with no flood insurance, who were ineligible for Fema payount who got nothing. But through Mormans, Red Cross, Step Program, DEC programs, various charities, adopt a family etc. got lots of stuff still covered.

    Guess, what you also need to kill the charity deductions to make this work. People are drawn to the shore. Other issue if we follow your plan home prices fall like a brick, but guess what bargain hunters move in and homes are still full.

    This is like when gas prices rose after Katrana and folks to save gas traded in gas guzlers, it caused more gas to be used not less. Unintended consequence. Those Caddie Escalades, GMC XLs, Ford Pickup trucks were sold to someone cheap and guess what the new smaller cars are now on road so it doubled the amount of cars on road.

    Other thing is you have to kill firetrucks, emergency workers, garbage pickup to in this areas. FEMA biggest cost was public infrastructure not flood payouts. Rebuilding boardwalks, schools etc. You have to stop that too.

    joyce says:
    January 8, 2013 at 9:04 am

    Nonsense, but hey, look who I’m responding to. It’s as easy fix. If people live in disaster prone areas and don’t adequately protect themselves with a sound structure to make it through a storm and/or insurance to reimburse them after the fact… don’t bail them out. But, hey, look who I’m responding to.

  13. joyce says:

    14

    All that sounds like to me is more reasons why FEMA shouldn’t exist at all. If private charities want to do X,Y,Z… who is anyone to tell them no? It’s up to them.

    What are you telling me now? That the tax code is fcuked. No argument here.

  14. fka 2010 Buyer says:

    I finally bite the bullet, put in an offer on a REO with Chase in PA. Have to say, Chase is the worse to negotiate with. Well actually not negotiate (because the price stayed the same) but the back and forth over little things (1) change NA to National Association, (2) take out this clause and add this addendum, (3) change the city to this and add and addendum with the correct city. It’s taken a month just to get an executed contract.

    Not sure how the original owner got all these loans, they had an ARM, Fixed Rate, then a month later got a Home Equity line. They purchased at the height of the market and got in the wrong way. Either way, it’s a 6 year old property that we got for about 60% of what it sold for in 2006.

  15. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [10] grim –

    Oh please, at some point we’ll find out that the lions share of the money went to folks that were still in some phase of foreclosure, and instead of giving the check to the owner, they just put the money towards the outstanding principle late fees and interest on the loan. Fees and a portion of the interest go to the servicer (big banks), principle goes to the investors (suckers).

  16. JJ's B.Se says:

    Yes, the charitable deduction should be killed as well as the mortgage deductions and all forms of mortgage insurance. Let folks only pay cash for homes. That alone will encourage them not to buy homes in flood zones

    joyce says:
    January 8, 2013 at 9:17 am

    14

    All that sounds like to me is more reasons why FEMA shouldn’t exist at all. If private charities want to do X,Y,Z… who is anyone to tell them no? It’s up to them.

    What are you telling me now? That the tax code is fcuked. No argument here.

  17. grim says:

    17 – Good point

  18. JJ's B.Se says:

    The bubble started jan 2000. How much did you get the home compared to December 1999 prices? I would say you should pay at most Spring 2002 prices. Better yet 200o prices. The peak of bubble is a random point to say you got off.

    Think about it. I know a guy who was selling a one hundred year old house who claimed he was selling it 30% off. Then in conversation it turns out if you pick the exact day over 100 years the house was worth the most around April 2006 and take the highest price in one hundred years he is selling for 30% off that price.

    I was like hey want to buy some cisco, enron, facebook, aig stock 30% off.

    fka 2010 Buyer says:
    January 8, 2013 at 9:19 am

    I finally bite the bullet, put in an offer on a REO with Chase in PA. Have to say, Chase is the worse to negotiate with. Well actually not negotiate (because the price stayed the same) but the back and forth over little things (1) change NA to National Association, (2) take out this clause and add this addendum, (3) change the city to this and add and addendum with the correct city. It’s taken a month just to get an executed contract.

    Not sure how the original owner got all these loans, they had an ARM, Fixed Rate, then a month later got a Home Equity line. They purchased at the height of the market and got in the wrong way. Either way, it’s a 6 year old property that we got for about 60% of what it sold for in 2006.

  19. joyce says:

    …as well as the rest of the income tax, TBTF, the Bernanke Put, rehypothecation, money/credit creation by banks, etc.

    18.JJ’s B.Se says:
    January 8, 2013 at 9:31 am
    Yes, the charitable deduction should be killed as well as the mortgage deductions…

  20. JJ's B.Se says:

    the bank is the owner of any undewater property. why do folks calls zero down never made a payment folks owners. They never owned it. Tennant who is behind in their rent is as much of an owner as a deadbeat undewater.

    I own chase stock. guess what I am one of the owner of the house 2010 is buying. why does he call the prior tennant a owner.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    January 8, 2013 at 9:29 am

    [10] grim –

    Oh please, at some point we’ll find out that the lions share of the money went to folks that were still in some phase of foreclosure, and instead of giving the check to the owner, they just put the money towards the outstanding principle late fees and interest on the loan. Fees and a portion of the interest go to the servicer (big banks), principle goes to the investors (suckers).

  21. JJ's B.Se says:

    TBTF will get him sainthood. Actually TBTF had winners and losers. TBTF was a straight up theft to shareholders, Citi, AIG, GM, BAC shareholders were robbed blind and it was a gift to debt holders.

    If I was shareholder I would be furious. I would have rather had 50% of my shares go BK and rest that survived I made a killing instead they killed all the shareholders. Thank god the only large bank shares I own was Chase and Jaimie Dimon is a ruthless nasty sob who treats his employees like slaves which for me is a company I want to own shares in.

    joyce says:
    January 8, 2013 at 9:37 am

    …as well as the rest of the income tax, TBTF, the Bernanke Put, rehypothecation, money/credit creation by banks, etc.

  22. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [20] JJ- That’s just about right. We bought in Spring 2002, but I was able to buy from a distressed seller (family moving out of country) for 2001 prices with no realtor involved. I was actually going to rent the place because we couldn’t find a place to buy fast enough and they were looking to rent because they didn’t think they could sell fast enough. Perfect fit, win-win. I would say in my area we’re right at 2002 prices but that comes with 2013 tax burdens, so even at the same price as 2002 it’s not as good a deal as 2002. I think Westchester has it pretty bad, their taxes have doubled *since* 2006.

    The bubble started jan 2000. How much did you get the home compared to December 1999 prices? I would say you should pay at most Spring 2002 prices. Better yet 200o prices. The peak of bubble is a random point to say you got off.

  23. joyce says:

    23
    Of course TBTF had winners and losers, quite the insight. So does gambling, winners and losers every time.

    And btw, I highly doubt the bank owns the property. They probably sold it to some hapless invester before it lost most of its value.

  24. fka 2010 Buyer says:

    It was NEW construction in 2006 and was overpriced at that time. So if it sold new for $600k in 2006 and I’m picking it up for like $360k, I think that a pretty good deal. Sucks for the rest of the people in the development who purchased at the same price (600k) and still making their payments.

  25. grim says:

    Prices started going up in this area in, what, 1996 or 1997?

    By 2000, prices were basically starting to recover from the last bubble burst.

    It’s been widely discussed in this area that the strongest onset of activity at the leading edge of the bubble was the post-9/11 “nesting” behavior. If that’s really the case, I’d put the start of the real “bubble” upswing at Spring 2002.

  26. 30 year realtor says:

    fka 2010 Buyer – #16 – All banks do this contract dance if the contract isn’t perfect from the start. They can hold the process up as long as they like. Don’t you dare hold things up for a day or request to extend a deadline, that isn’t permitted!

  27. Comrade Nom Deplume: To Tax what JJ is to Sex. says:

    [11] dope,

    Not news. The vast majority of cops and military officers prefer that civilians not have guns.

    My dad is a retired cop. I know plenty of cops and military; even those that own guns feel that they, not civilians, should have this power. And I can tell you from firsthand knowledge that police are trained at the academy on techniques to get weapons out of the hands of lawful owners.

    Need further proof? Find an old NBC10 interview of the former Philly police commish and listen to what he thinks of lawful owners.

  28. Hey! We have made a games website dedicated to logic and engineering, plus building games. The link will be located above. Any support is very appreciated. Thanks!

  29. Ernest Money says:

    grim (27)-

    I concur on all points.

  30. You really make it appear so easy together with your presentation however I to find this topic to be actually something that I think I would never understand. It sort of feels too complex and very large for me. I am having a look forward in your subsequent post, I’ll try to get the dangle of it!

  31. JJ's B.Se says:

    Bottom line we will see in next 6-18 months the Great Rotation out of Bonds into Stocks and RE. Best advice dont panic and dump bonds. But starting now put all future interest payments and maturities and call money into stocks and maybe investment property/RE stocks.

    Max out tax advantage accounts first as tax rates are skyhigh

    And finally we will have a choppy market in next 1-3 months with fiscal issue and debt ceiling in DC dollar average in and get whole 401K contribution in by early spring. After that smooth sailing in stock market till 12-31-2013.

    chicagofinance says:
    January 8, 2013 at 10:22 am

    Check me out!
    http://www.app.com/article/20130106/NJBIZ/301060015/Jersey-Shore-investment-advisers-offer-advice-to-grow-your-money-in-2013

  32. JJ's B.Se says:

    are you saying we should shoot all retired cops and military people? would make sense in a way, dangerous having ex trained killers hanging around and the pension costs are very high.

    Comrade Nom Deplume: To Tax what JJ is to Sex. says:
    January 8, 2013 at 10:16 am

    [11] dope,

    Not news. The vast majority of cops and military officers prefer that civilians not have guns.

    My dad is a retired cop. I know plenty of cops and military; even those that own guns feel that they, not civilians, should have this power. And I can tell you from firsthand knowledge that police are trained at the academy on techniques to get weapons out of the hands of lawful owners.

    Need further proof? Find an old NBC10 interview of the former Philly police commish and listen to what he thinks of lawful owners.

  33. reinvestor101 says:

    >>> Peace, Love, Dope says:
    January 8, 2013 at 8:43 am

    in my best reinvestor101 voice:

    “look at this goddamn hippie! if he thinks he knows anything about guns and gun owners he’s probably just smoking too much of that wacky tobacky! we need to get rid of softie pacifists like this guy. where is sarah palin – the REAL voice of the ‘merican people – when you need her???”

    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/mcchrystal-backs-gun-restrictions-85888.html<<&lt;

    If'n I was you, I'd be watching my damn step son. I don't take kindly to people trying to imitate me and I hate wusses like this punk McCrystal. I'm strapped all the damn time because you never know when you're gonna run into a real estate terrorist or a stinking liberal. Yeah, there's a legit purpose for having a damn AK 47 and I resent the liberal plot to take it away from me. Just like my damn house deed, there's only one way you're gonna take my gun away–you'll need to pry them both from my cold dead hands and you'll have a hell of a time getting them even then.

    Wuss.

  34. Anon E. Moose says:

    Chifi [32];

    Wow, you look much younger than I would anticipated. Good clean livin’? ;-)

  35. reinvestor101 says:

    Here’s some damn sob story about someone who wants a socialist government to force Allstate to bail them the hell out because they didn’t have some damn flood insurance:

    http://news.yahoo.com/couple-says-allstate-short-changed-them-put-home-194957583–abc-news-money.html

    You stinking bleeding heart liberals want to force a damn job creator like Allstate to pay out some damn money just because someone’s damn house got torn down through a damn hurricane. That’s a bunch of bullspit. These people are trying to split hairs with a job creator over whether the damn house got blown down first or flooded first. Let’s get something damn straight, I’LL ALWAYS BE ON THE SIDE OF THE DAMN JOB CREATOR JUST LIKE ANY CONSERVATIVE TEA PARTY MEMBER WOULD BE. These people want to try and take advantage of the damn insurance company and yahoo is being unamerican by even publishing this bullcrap. If anything, we should be talking about what damn government resources can be put together to address the real tragedy—the damn price of my damn stock in Allstate.

    Let me tell you another damn thing these stinking socialist liberals are planning; mutual companies. After the job creators got rid of these stinking relics and made them more efficient, I heard someone talking about bringing them back. That’s bullspit and they need to pass a damn law to kill that shlt right now. A mutual company is socialism plan and simple. The invisible hand of the damn free markets is the best damn thing for solving any damn problems and that hand needs to pound stinking liberals because they’re indeed a problem.

  36. JJ's B.Se says:

    I agree. But allstate was pushing envelope using customers home in a commerical.

    Bottom line is the couple should have been pouring gas on the house and lightening it up before the first responders got there. Lot of folks were smarter than her.

    My local firefighter said he saw a house that had two electric heaters around a gas can with a plug out to a generator in far rockaway in a house that was severely flooded. Guy was smart, he snuck in before manadatory evactuation was lifted, in middle of night set it up and you know what since top 1/3 of house was dry it all burnt up and firefighters soaked house in water so who knows what was flooded.

    I say around 1/3 of fires in far rockaway happened between sandy and when people were allowed back in. Think about it. Fire is covered. No one saw your house no pictures were taken power was on when salt water hit box then aftewards folks had 20 gallons of gas, generators and muliple electric heaters.

    If that couple could go back in time to last summer they would have got flood insurance. If that couple could go back in time to five seconds before they evactuated they would have put lit up the dryiest part of house and ran.

    reinvestor101 says:
    January 8, 2013 at 11:44 am

    Here’s some damn sob story about someone who wants a socialist government to force Allstate to bail them the hell out because they didn’t have some damn flood insurance:

  37. reinvestor101 says:

    >>>…… If that couple could go back in time to five seconds before they evactuated they would have put lit up the dryiest part of house and ran. <<<

    WTF? This is the kind of crap that makes me want to cuss. THIS IS INSURANCE FRAUD DAMMIT AND I'M SHOCKED YOU WOULD SUGGEST THIS ON A PUBLIC DAMN MESSAGE BOARD. THIS IS TOTAL BULLSPIT.

    This is the main damn reason why the insurance companies have to be so damn VIGILANT. People try to get sick and make claims against health insurers, the damn doctors do crap that's totally unnecessary, people total their damn cars to get a damn payoff and YOU try to suggest someone BURN DOWN HIS DAMN HOUSE to cover up his lack of flood insurance. Have you ever heard of the damn FIRE economy? Guess what, that doesn't have a DAMN THING TO DO WITH BURNING DOWN A HOUSE. It has to do with my DAMN STOCK PRICE AND THAT TRUMPS EVERYTHING.

    Get the hell out of the way, and let the damn job creators take care of this.

  38. reinvestor101 says:

    And one other damn thing—-that damn couple need to thank Allstate for using their damn house in a commercial. Hell, that’s free advertising in case they want to sell.

  39. Happy Renter says:

    [11] Dope — that’s sort of the point of the 2nd Amendment.

  40. JJ's B.Se says:

    A fire would create a lot more jobs than an older moldy house

    If couple is telling truth then they would have been paid.

    One adjuster told me he tries to help folks out but sometimes they shoot themselves.

    My favorite was the homeowners was screwing a couple near me on some stuff they were owed. Adjuster cant change home policy and said if you tell me your oven, dishwasher and fridge was broken in power surge I can get you 3k extra to cover 3k in damage you would have got. Wife goes sure I can say that. Then stupid husband goes thanks so much why dont you come to kitchen where it is warmer. Dope had gas oven on, adjuster rolls eyes at wife, like really.
    The adjuster process is flawed. They get paid based on how much they pay out. The more they pay out the more they get paid. But also they get paid on how little they pay out. These nuts like to pay out 100% of damages by saying you had twice as much damage as you had then paying you 50 cents on the dollar. Crazy

    reinvestor101 says:
    January 8, 2013 at 12:19 pm

  41. Ernest Money says:

    No family investment plan should start with anything other than .223 and MREs.

  42. reinvestor101 says:

    >>A fire would create a lot more jobs than an older moldy house<<>If couple is telling truth then they would have been paid<<<

    No, they tried to lie and that's why they didn't and shouldn't get paid. You don't try to defraud shareholders the damn insurance company by lying about what happened first. They got flooded first and didn’t have the damn flood insurance and that’s that. These people are liberals and that’s what liberals do.

    >>One adjuster told me he tries to help folks out but sometimes they shoot themselves<<<<

    I want his name so I can make sure his ass is fired. The damn adjuster's job doesn't include helping anyone except for his damn employer. He's probably a liberal too and it's just like a liberal to show his ass with his damn bleeding heart sympathies. Guess what, if it was his personal money, do you think he'd be "helping people out"? Hell no he wouldn't, but when it comes to someone else's damn money, his thieving ass decides to get "charitable". Yeah, these damn liberals like to fund their socialist fantasies with other people's damn money and suspend the free hand of the damn markets.

  43. reinvestor101 says:

    Dammit, you made me so mad, I messed up my damn post. DON’T DO THAT AGAIN. Here’s what the hell I meant to post:

    >>A fire would create a lot more jobs than an older moldy house<If couple is telling truth then they would have been paid<<>One adjuster told me he tries to help folks out but sometimes they shoot themselves<<<<

    I want his name so I can make sure his ass is fired. The damn adjuster's job doesn't include helping anyone except for his damn employer. He's probably a liberal too and it's just like a liberal to show his ass with his damn bleeding heart sympathies. Guess what, if it was his personal money, do you think he'd be "helping people out"? Hell no he wouldn't, but when it comes to someone else's damn money, his thieving ass decides to get "charitable". Yeah, these damn liberals like to fund their socialist fantasies with other people's damn money and suspend the free hand of the damn markets.

  44. JJ's B.Se says:

    The adjuster does not work for the insurance company. Most are independent. The adjuster only interest is his own. He does not care about homeowner nor does he care about insurance company. Adjustor gets paid per house. Back and forth time between homeowner and insurance company he has to deal with for free. He does not want to do it.

    Here is how it works. You have a legitimate 75k in damage to house. Insurance Company/underwriter likes to pay out only 75% on dollar so he looks good.

    Adjuster if he puts in 75K you only get paid $56,260 you go back and forth between adjuster and insurance company maybe hire a lawyer and months and months of nonsense happens that wastes everyone’s time. Then you get paid 75K.

    Adjuster will then pad your bill by 25K say you have 100K worth of damage, underwriter/company says ha ha we are only paying 75 cents on a dollar so you only get 75k.

    Homeowner gets paid his 75K, insurance underwriter hits his metric and home adjuster does not waste months working for free fighting on this and homeowner is happy.

    No fraud going on just stupidity being avoided.

    reinvestor101 says:
    January 8, 2013 at 1:46 pm

    Dammit, you made me so mad, I messed up my damn post. DON’T DO THAT AGAIN. Here’s what the hell I meant to post:

    >>A fire would create a lot more jobs than an older moldy house<If couple is telling truth then they would have been paid<One adjuster told me he tries to help folks out but sometimes they shoot themselves<<<<

    I want his name so I can make sure his ass is fired. The damn adjuster's job doesn't include helping anyone except for his damn employer. He's probably a liberal too and it's just like a liberal to show his ass with his damn bleeding heart sympathies. Guess what, if it was his personal money, do you think he'd be "helping people out"? Hell no he wouldn't, but when it comes to someone else's damn money, his thieving ass decides to get "charitable". Yeah, these damn liberals like to fund their socialist fantasies with other people's damn money and suspend the free hand of the damn markets.

  45. JJ's B.Se says:

    Grim is kinda like the Wallace Hartley or Real Estate.

  46. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Nom – about your new tag line: Does that mean you spend most of your waking hours pining for the Tax returns you completed when you were half your current age?

    Comrade Nom Deplume: To Tax what JJ is to Sex. says:

  47. Brian says:

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/alex-jones-piers-morgan-video-140201992.html

    I kinda like this Alex Jones guy. Although, I kinda like anybody who doesn’t like Piers Morgan.

  48. JJ's B.Se says:

    I love my tax returns it is like watching the lost series. Even when you are done so many loose ends

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    January 8, 2013 at 2:15 pm

    Nom – about your new tag line: Does that mean you spend most of your waking hours pining for the Tax returns you completed when you were half your current age?

    Comrade Nom Deplume: To Tax what JJ is to Sex. says:

  49. McDullard says:

    ChiFi,

    I read this on that page:
    “Payroll taxes rose by two percentage points, cutting into the paychecks of workers.”

    Is that how people perceive the expiry of payroll tax cut (which was always meant to be a short-term fix)? My take on the payroll tax cut was that “we get a few k extra” simply because other people are losing their jobs (and I wouldn’t get any of that if and when I lose my job!)”. Reporting it as a tax hike seems a bit harsh.

    Oh, you look too young to not be a liberal at heart. :)

  50. Brian says:

    49 –
    That sounds like something Earnest Money would say. Despite the “grim” handle, at least grim is more upbeat about it.

  51. Brian says:

    Wow…that’s actually pretty deep. I think you just helped me understand something about my own father. Wierd.

    29.Comrade Nom Deplume: To Tax what JJ is to Sex. says:
    January 8, 2013 at 10:16 am
    [11] dope,

    Not news. The vast majority of cops and military officers prefer that civilians not have guns.

    My dad is a retired cop. I know plenty of cops and military; even those that own guns feel that they, not civilians, should have this power. And I can tell you from firsthand knowledge that police are trained at the academy on techniques to get weapons out of the hands of lawful owners.

    Need further proof? Find an old NBC10 interview of the former Philly police commish and listen to what he thinks of lawful owners.

  52. JJ's B.Se says:

    Plus the rise in SS is only on the first 100K or so so pretty much for most folks on this site that is only a January effect.

    McDullard says:
    January 8, 2013 at 2:23 pm

    ChiFi,

    I read this on that page:
    “Payroll taxes rose by two percentage points, cutting into the paychecks of workers.”

  53. yome says:

    53 if GOP can say they lowered taxes by waiting till the 13th hour of the fiscal cliff,why not?

  54. Juice Box says:

    Guess when you are unemployed and live with granny why not do something
    stupid?

    Man Climbs Onto Submerged Seaside Heights Roller Coaster

    http://nj1015.com/man-climbs-onto-submerged-seaside-heights-roller-coaster/

  55. Comrade Nom Deplume on a different computer says:

    [50] expat,

    LMAO!

    [55] Brian,

    okay, wasn’t supposed to be deep but if it worked for you, glad to help.

  56. JJ's B.Se says:

    Porsche posts record U.S. sales
    December sales surge 61%

    what recession

  57. Juice Box says:

    re # 60- Been seeing quite a few Porche Panameras around in New Jersey, the six banger will set you back 80k, so the lease should be around $950 a month for 27 months.

  58. Ernest Money says:

    Pretty soon, you’ll also be seeing NJ residents who have their own personal militias.

  59. Juice Box says:

    Then again a beige 4-door sedan with a V6 isn’t really a Porsche. Might as well drive a Caddy CTS. :)

  60. yome says:

    Its a revenue problem due to the great recession. Bills are the same bills we pay before the recession

    The debt limit is the amount the government can borrow to meet obligations that were authorized in the past by Congresses and presidents. It doesn’t fund new spending. Congress has raised or revised the ceiling 79 times since 1960, including 49 under Republican presidents, according to the Treasury Department.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/debt-limit-showdown-spurs-debate-on-trillion-dollar-coin.html

  61. joyce says:

    64
    You cannot be serious. How much was spending in 05, 06, 07 … how much a year since?

  62. joyce says:

    64
    You expect bubble years tax revenue to be the norm? Ridiculous

    Even during the pristine Clinton Era with higher tax rates! and another bubble! could we balance the budget. Every year the debt increased, never had a balance let alone surplus.

  63. joyce says:

    whoops, didn’t think my initial post went through

  64. JJ's B.Se says:

    The CTS I love the way it looks. I actually miss my five series with the way it drives. Guy who traded the CTS in gets a new car every 12-18 months and only drives like 3k a year. Rich Retired Car nut. He bought a fully loaded 2013 Camaro Convert SS. Dealer is going to call me in 12-18 months when he trades it in. I need a kick butt car.

    I would get a porsche but the problem is my schlong is just too damm big, they are for guys who need to compensate for something.

    Juice Box says:
    January 8, 2013 at 4:12 pm

    Then again a beige 4-door sedan with a V6 isn’t really a Porsche. Might as well drive a Caddy CTS. :)

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume: To Tax what JJ is to Sex. says:

    [66] joyce,

    Spend, spend, spend. Not my problem anymore now that I have learned to love Big Brother.

    After all, Big Brother told Boehner we DON’T have a spending problem, and that he is sick of Boehner spreading this vicious lie. Big Brother said it so it must be true.

  66. JJ's B.Se says:

    Joyce I find it amuzing the folks who pay the least taxes are always concerned about govt spending.

  67. yome says:

    I was refering to this statement. If this spending existed before he became president why is he the spending guy

    The debt limit is the amount the government can borrow to meet obligations that were authorized in the past by Congresses and presidents. It doesn’t fund new spending. Congress has raised or revised the ceiling 79 times since 1960, including 49 under Republican presidents, according to the Treasury Department.

  68. joyce says:

    72
    Who said he was? I think it’s been 50+ years since we had a year when the government ran a surplus. Everyone in the executive and legislative branches are to blame.

    71
    JJ… that’s because you’re willfully stupid and blind. Government just doesn’t spend its money. It direct and redirects money towards certain industries and individual firms. The more it spends the more it steals. Simple as that. What do you think lobbyists are for? They need their funding and grants. They need their exemptions and loopholes.

  69. Essex says:

    68. Nice! It’ll still be costly, But you’ll save over new.

  70. Anon E. Moose says:

    Yo [71];

    Congress has raised or revised the ceiling 79 times since 1960, including 49 under Republican presidents, according to the Treasury Department.

    So you’re saying that if I use my credit card twice a day for a $3 latte over the course of a month, but my spouse uses it only once for a $10,000 vacation, that I’m the one with the real spending problem because I used it 60 times to her one?

    Do the math jackass. http://blog.heritage.org/2011/07/28/the-truth-about-obamas-budget-deficits-in-pictures/

  71. Statler Waldorf says:

    NJ college students demand higher tuition, tougher admission…

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/01/nj_college_students_to_rally_f.html

    TRENTON — A coalition of college students and immigration [sic] activists will kick off a campaign today calling for “tuition equality” for illegal immigrants at New Jersey colleges.

    The group — which will stage its first rally on the steps of the Statehouse in Trenton this morning — is pushing for passage of controversial legislation that would allow undocumented (illegal) students to pay in-state tuition rates at the state’s public colleges.

  72. yome says:

    72 I agree. My point is this obligation seems to be very large due to the recession. When collecting revenue on 4% or higher on GDP with half that now. Health care expenses has doubled. Anticipated returns on pensions and other investment are not the same as during good times. Deficits will be expected to be large. Question is how long are we going stucked on a 2% GDP.

  73. yome says:

    Moose no need to start with name calling. I am simply pointing out the statement. I am not changing your views.

  74. Anon E. Moose says:

    Yo [77];

    You’re right. I apologize for calling you a jackass.

    The rest of my statement stands.

  75. Usually I don’t learn post on blogs, but I would like to say that this write-up very compelled me to take a look at and do so! Your writing style has been amazed me. Thanks, quite great article.

  76. Anon E. Moose says:

    According to OMB data, the first 4 years under Obama increased the debt by more than the prior 8 under Bush; and Bush couldn’t seem to find his veto pen regardless of what kind of budget the republican-controlled house passed.

    So, despite one-party rule under Bush from ’01 (or ’03) – ’06, Obama’s first term eclipsed those spendthrift ways enough to make a drunken sailor blush. If Obama was able to hold his spending down to the outrageous level that Bush did, I’d concede it’s all just political gamesmanship.

  77. joyce says:

    Your point is moot. Whatever level of taxation is received by the govt, they will spend more. How many times do both parties clamor for deficit reduction and when they increase taxes or cut spending in one place… they then say we have a need to shore up defense or education.

    Heaven forbid we ever talk about debt reduction, and not just deficit redution.

    77.yome says:
    January 8, 2013 at 5:22 pm
    72 I agree. My point is this obligation seems to be very large due to the recession. When collecting revenue on 4% or higher on GDP with half that now. Health care expenses has doubled. Anticipated returns on pensions and other investment are not the same as during good times. Deficits will be expected to be large. Question is how long are we going stucked on a 2% GDP.

  78. reinvestor101 says:

    >>>JJ’s B.Se says:
    January 8, 2013 at 2:12 pm

    The adjuster does not work for the insurance company. Most are independent. The adjuster only interest is his own. He does not care about homeowner nor does he care about insurance company. Adjustor gets paid per house. Back and forth time between homeowner and insurance company he has to deal with for free. He does not want to do it. <<<

    Boy, are you contradicting me? I DON'T GIVE A TINKER'S DAMN WHO HE WORKS FOR. IF ALLSTATE HAS TO PAY TOO DAMN MUCH, MY DAMN STOCK GOES DOWN. THAT'S WHAT I'M CONCERNED ABOUT. GET IT?

    You damn liberals are all alike with your damn gaming of the damn system to fund your stinking socialist fantasies. My damn money is at stake and I don't have time to worry about somebody who didn't get the damn flood insurance. You come on here suggesting damn insurance fraud and then proceed to give me some shlt about some damn motherhubbing adjuster. Put a sock in it motherhubbard.

  79. yome says:

    Existing bills are there to be paid with no revenue, how do you pay the bills? You borrow. You compare Bush with O. How much is revenue and GDP between the two?

  80. JJ's B.Se says:

    I never had flood insurance so you would be happy to know it does not affect your stock. I just got my money right from FEMA which is ok as I pay a few hundred grand some years in taxes so about time I got back a few bucks.

    reinvestor101 says:
    January 8, 2013 at 5:43 pm

    >>>JJ’s B.Se says:
    January 8, 2013 at 2:12 pm

    The adjuster does not work for the insurance company. Most are independent. The adjuster only interest is his own. He does not care about homeowner nor does he care about insurance company. Adjustor gets paid per house. Back and forth time between homeowner and insurance company he has to deal with for free. He does not want to do it. <<<

    Boy, are you contradicting me? I DON'T GIVE A TINKER'S DAMN WHO HE WORKS FOR. IF ALLSTATE HAS TO PAY TOO DAMN MUCH, MY DAMN STOCK GOES DOWN. THAT'S WHAT I'M CONCERNED ABOUT. GET IT?

    You damn liberals are all alike with your damn gaming of the damn system to fund your stinking socialist fantasies. My damn money is at stake and I don't have time to worry about somebody who didn't get the damn flood insurance. You come on here suggesting damn insurance fraud and then proceed to give me some shlt about some damn motherhubbing adjuster. Put a sock in it motherhubbard.

  81. Hey there,

    It’s interesting how your New Jersey mirrors my Tahoe, when it comes to home values rising after the brutal recession. We’re seeing almost the exact same trend down here: http://www.laketahoerealestate.org/

    I guess the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, as our markets our tied up much more than people would like to admit (of course jobs, local economy play big parts).

    Good post…

    -Daytona

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  83. Comrade Nom Deplume: To Tax what JJ is to Sex. says:

    [86] yome

    Quel suprise.

  84. reinvestor101 says:

    >>>JJ’s B.Se says:
    January 8, 2013 at 6:14 pm

    I never had flood insurance so you would be happy to know it does not affect your stock. I just got my money right from FEMA which is ok as I pay a few hundred grand some years in taxes so about time I got back a few bucks. <<<

    Look motherhubbard, I choke every third liberal I run into and I just encountered my second one—so don't be surprised if some hands suddenly leap from your damn computer monitor around your stinking little scrawny liberal neck.

    You disgust me totally with your laying around on the damn government dole looking for handouts. If I have to move heaven and earth, I'm going to see to it that the damn money spigot from FEMA is cut the hell off and that we recoup whatever money your grubby liberal hand got ahold of. People like you don't pay any damned taxes, you're a damn taker.

    Damn liberal wuss.

  85. joyce says:

    Over the past 20 years, the violent crime rate and murder rate has dropped in half… 50% lower… and has also concentrated itself more and more in major metropolitan areas (population 250,000+). The violent crime rate and murder rate in major metropolitan areas is double that of the national average.

    Murder rate of US 3x that of UK
    Violent crime rate of UK 3.5x that of US

    US 186 major metropolitan areas
    UK 32 major metropolitan areas

    In 2011, out of all homocides by firearms, 3.5% were by rifles (including AR-15’s)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ooa98FHuaU0&feature=youtu.be

    http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/violent-crime/violent-crime

  86. Ernest Money says:

    Anybody got an AR-15 they want to offload?

  87. caljn says:

    80

    Because O put W’s wars on the books.

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  89. Peace, Love, Dope says:

    92 – don’t try to peddle your silly facts here…they will fall on deaf ears.

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