From the Federal Reserve:
Beige Book — October 16, 2013 Second District–New York
Economic growth in the Second District has continued at a moderate pace since the last report. Contacts indicate some increase in cost pressures, though selling prices continue to be steady to up slightly. Labor market conditions have shown further signs of improvement, and there are scattered reports of wage pressures. General merchandise retailers indicate that sales were generally steady in September and close to plan, while new auto sales have been increasingly robust. Tourism activity has shown some signs of picking up since the last report. Commercial and especially residential real estate markets have shown signs of firming. In contrast, contacts in the manufacturing sector report a pause in growth, and the climate in the financial sector is described as downbeat. Bankers report softer loan demand from the household sector, no change in credit standards, little change in loan spreads, and continued widespread declines in delinquency rates. More broadly, some contacts express concern about potential disruptive effects of a prolonged federal government shutdown.
Construction and Real Estate
Residential real estate markets in the District have been steady to stronger since the last report. Buffalo-area contacts continue to describe market conditions as robust in both August and September, with brisk sales volume, moderately rising prices, and continued reports of bidding wars. Sales activity in New York City’s co-op and condo market was exceptionally brisk in the third quarter–the highest since 2007 and the 2nd highest in 24 years. Sales of smaller (one bedroom) apartments were particularly strong. The inventory of available apartments for sale has fallen to new lows, as completed transactions are outnumbering the flow of new listings. Whereas Manhattan prices have risen only modestly, prices for Brooklyn apartments are reported to be up 10-15 percent over the past year. New York City’s rental market has been mixed: while Manhattan rents have stopped rising and are down slightly from a year ago, Brooklyn rents have been rising at a more than 10 percent pace.
A contact in New Jersey’s housing industry reports continued gradual improvement in market conditions. Prices continue to rise modestly, held back by a persistent overhang of distressed properties. The Jersey shore sales market remains tepid, with prices still well below their pre-recession peaks–particularly in areas hard hit by Sandy last October.
Office markets were steady to stronger in the third quarter. Manhattan’s vacancy rate declined to 7.3 percent–its lowest level in more than four years–while asking rents continued to rise, particularly on Class B properties. Long Island’s office vacancy rate also edged down below 8 percent, though asking rents were little changed. In the northern New Jersey and Westchester/Fairfield markets, however, vacancy rates were unchanged at much higher levels, while asking rents were little changed. A New Jersey real estate contact maintains that non-residential construction activity is almost strictly limited to renovations and improvements on existing properties.
From the WSJ:
Shadow Inventory: The Zombie Meme That Won’t Die
Like a zombie that keeps coming back from the dead, news reports continue to suggest there’s a large “shadow” inventory of potential foreclosures threatening to sink the housing market.
There’s just one problem: the data doesn’t show it.
For the past three years, a number of housing pundits have issued ominous warnings about the millions of underwater mortgages, modified mortgages, and delinquent mortgages that threatened to drag down the housing market. But efforts to modify and refinance mortgages—together with surprisingly strong demand from investors for distressed properties—have whittled down this shadow supply.
At the end of July, banks and other mortgage investors held around 309,000 foreclosed homes on their books, down 16% from one year earlier to the lowest level since 2007, according to data tracked by Barclays Capital. The bank-owned foreclosure inventory in July was more than halfway below its late 2008 peak.
The investment firm estimates that another 2.47 million loans were seriously delinquent—either 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure. That’s the lowest level since the end of 2008 and 21% below year-earlier levels.
I haven’t verified this, but if its true, it is extremely troubling . . . .
Misinterpretation – Sounds more like JPM has a huge fraud problem, or worse, potentially a trafficking/laundering problem … or if we wish to apply Occam’s Razor here, just another f*ing way to put a bigger fee on something.
Weekly jobless claims down 15k to 358k, 4 week moving average up 11,750 to 336,500.
General question (directed toward grim and 30 year realtor, but any advice would be helpful):
We went with a realtor recommended from a friend, and while she is really knowledgeable about the whole process and is really good and picking apart little things that we may be overlooking, she also isn’t based in the area we are looking (we’re looking in Western Morris county, she’s based in Union county)…is that a big deal? Since I hear about realtors who get listings before they go up and give their buyers a heads up before the listing gets on MLS, I’m wondering if we’re missing something by not going with a realtor based in the area we are looking.
She is part of a regional/national chain and not a local outfit, if that has any effect.
wouldn’t know if some races are larger than others.
but you would.
a Kenyan rammed it up your stinky. again.
From MarketWatch:
House flipping makes a comeback
Flipping houses went out of fashion around 2008, along with flip phones and sub-prime mortgages. But real estate data shows the practice is on the upswing — among million-dollar homes.
For the market as a whole, flips of single family homes fell 13% in the third quarter, according to new research from RealtyTrac, with investors earning a gross profit of nearly $55,000 on each property. But at the higher end of the market, homes seem to flip as quickly as a griddle full of hamburgers. Flipping increased 34% among homes worth $750,000 and over, 42% among $1 to $2 million houses, and 350% for properties worth between $2 and $5 million.
“We’ve seen a notable increase in sales of properties costing $1 million or more,” says Walt Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.
Flipping tends to be most common in cities with a large supply of expensive homes. (To qualify as a flip, a home must be purchased and subsequently sold again within six months.) In fact, more than three-quarters of all high-end flipping took place in five markets: The New York metro area and Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose and San Diego.
The trend is an extension of a return to the market among wealthy Americans, studies show. In August, sales of million-dollar homes were up 33% on the year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors, accounting for 2.4% of all sales in August versus 1.8% a year earlier. Other studies are even more bullish than that: Sales of million-dollar homes increased 37% on the year in the first half of 2013, reaching the highest level since 2007, according to DataQuick, a company that analyzes nationwide property data.
#5 Ask your buddy McBooker, he knows all about it.
4 – All other things equal, you’ll be better served by an agent that’s looking out for your best interests than one located in a certain area who treats you like cattle.
I know folks love to harp on these special secret magic deals, where local agents give their clients the ability to cherry pick from a basket of gems at a 50% discount to market, but in reality, that don’t happen.
I’m not saying deals don’t get executed prior to hitting the mls, or through pocket listings, but these rarely trade at discounts.
“a Kenyan rammed it up your stinky. again.”
At least most people try to avoid this situation. You seem like a willing and readily available pillow biter.
Pure anecdata but I know two bank owned houses near each other in a decent town and on nice quiet streets with some very high value properties that have been empty for more than 5 years.
@billmaher: Rep.s: ‘we fought the good fight’ – yeah, it woulda been worth it if we could have prevented just one poor kid from getting a free inhaler
It’s not so much the price deals but the advanced notice. Agents shop potential listings and recent listings to other agents in their offices, not just their own buyers, before the paperwork gets filed. I believe all of the major agencies have weekly meetings where they bring up such things.
“I know folks love to harp on these special secret magic deals, where local agents give their clients the ability to cherry pick from a basket of gems at a 50% discount to market, but in reality, that don’t happen.
I’m not saying deals don’t get executed prior to hitting the mls, or through pocket listings, but these rarely trade at discounts.”
12 – Advanced notice? Irrelevant. Most folks that pain themselves over this situation don’t have the stones to pull the trigger on a deal at zero days on market with only a few minutes to make the decision and sign the paperwork.
By the way, spend enough time in the business and your inbox will be filled by the end of the day with all these great “advanced notice” properties. It’s all the same crap.
Generally, I’ll find that most of the time, in the prime areas, this advanced notice has more to do with living on a particularly desirable street or in a particularly desirable neighborhood, and zero to do with price, in fact, the price on all of these often represents the desirability of the area.
“I know folks love to harp on these special secret magic deals, where local agents give their clients the ability to cherry pick from a basket of gems at a 50% discount to market, but in reality, that don’t happen.
I’m not saying deals don’t get executed prior to hitting the mls, or through pocket listings, but these rarely trade at discounts.”
Agreed. But don’t offer us the sh1t that no one wants at the same price and expect us to buy it. And don’t tell us “it needs a little updating” as we’re vomiting from the smell. And don’t tell us the price for the sh1t is “warranted” because the school system has a bunch of kids named Pierce, Kensington and Topper. You’re realtors… house guides… not f.ucking Thoracic Surgeons.
The only value added that I recall an agent adding to the buy side is the ability to show the house. Other than that, they’re worthless.
Between the MLS, the NJ tax site, and the Morris county clerks office, all the information needed to make an informed purchase is available online.
They’ll also try referring you to all of their to their cohorts so they boost their commissions. “Hey, talk to our finance guy, he’ll help you crunch the numbers.” Uh, no.
NWNJ talk to our finance guy was always one of our favorites. I’m admitedly terrible at math, but i can pretty wasily figure out finances and know a bad deal when I see one.
grim,
I don’t mean you in my last post, I mean the yahoos trying to hook a score.
On the real estate agent discussion:
1) Gary, we know we are not surgeons. You know we are not surgeons. Why do you believe we are so smart that we can fool people into making stupid decisions?
2) National chain vs Local mom & pop shop? The office means NOTHING! The agent means everything. You only deal with the agent.
3) Strongly agree with Grim that getting a knowledgeable who has your best interest at heart is far more meaningful than where the agent is located.
4) There are often good opportunities available for buyers that can wait out the short sale process or are willing to do major rehab and construction work. No special deals on the homes everyone wants.
Thanks for all the advice.
Her lack of knowledge about the area we are looking is probably her only weakness: she has been fine in pretty much all other aspects of this process. In fact, we looked at a house last weekend that had awesome pictures/description on the MLS site but was actually in an awful area on a super busy/loud street, and after looking around she actually tried to get us OUT of the house as fast as possible (which we did not object to). Actually, the more I think about it, it almost seems like her lack of ties to the area was more of a boon as it makes her more objective about whatever we are looking at.
I was also surprised to hear that when we told her that we can look around for a while (we have a month to month lease, so we can take our time to find a house), she was 100% ok with that, no pressure. That was also nice to hear.
The only value added that I recall an agent adding to the buy side is the ability to show the house. Other than that, they’re worthless.
Maybe for someone who has bought/sold houses before, but my wife and I still have our real-estate v-cards, so having someone to help us out has been immensely helpful. I agree though, once this process is over, I don’t think we’d need a realtor to do this again.
The only value added that I recall an agent adding to the buy side is the ability to show the house. Other than that, they’re worthless.
Not entirely. They have an ID and password to listings that they trade with their co-conspirators in hopes of hooking yet another unsuspecting soul. ;)
Lol, of course a house never has to be listed or get to the MLS to be sold by an agent. You’ve never signed a one time showing to get a client in the door before the official listing? My agents have for me, often. Plus Individual offices have every incentive to keep both sides of the transaction in their office, like most sales situations, they compete against other offices in their same franchise. and of course agents have every incentive to sell a house without lifting a finger. By the time you get that advance notice in your inbox, it’s been shopped around privately among most of the agents friends. And if it’s worth it, their clients are already considering it before day 1 on the MLS.
“12 – Advanced notice? Irrelevant. Most folks that pain themselves over this situation don’t have the stones to pull the trigger on a deal at zero days on market with only a few minutes to make the decision and sign the paperwork.”
nwnj,
I believe the buy agents job is to get you to pay as close to sellers price (fantasy in most cases) as possible. My agent told me I had to ignore a direct comp behind the house mostly because it killed the old f*cks list price. Of course I told her nicely to shove it. In other words, deal was doa. That is all agents care about. I saw he was Michigan grad. Hope he watched the PSU game and cried.
Even agents based in a certain town don’t know everything about what’s going on in that town. They don’t know if your new neighbor is an enormous asshole or not, or if the neighbor to the rear is planning on blowing out the back of his house in an enormous remodel, pushing the house to within inches of the property line. Or maybe they do, and they just won’t tell you.
Gary if you don’t mind me bringing up a case? (I hope not). We looked at a really nice property, probably one of the best we saw at the time. New to market, looked very promising. Shitty wallpaper, it needed work, and the lot shape was a little bit funny, but a good house.
Something felt funny, the sellers story didn’t really seem to jive, the price seemed a little too good.
So what does grim do? He hustles and finds out that one of the rear neighbors is involved in a major legal battle with town zoning, having illegally infilled wetlands in an attempt to create a larger buildable lot to create a subdivision. That neighbors illegal fill has caused major flooding problems for other houses in the neighborhood.
Talked with the zoning official and come to find out the neighbor was literally out of his f*cking mind, and proceeded to INFILL A STREAM with illegal fill, in the midst of all of this.
To make things worse, he had lots of lawyers and a lot of f*kcing money – and might have actually stood a chance at allowing remediation by replacing the stream with a drainage tunnel and being allowed to put THREE HOUSES on the property, almost right up to the property line.
Well, we said FU to the property and moved on.
But the house went under contract quick, and sold.
You think the new buyer knew about what was happening on the other side of the hedge row, in the picturesque forested area that made up the back yard? We sure as hell didn’t. Heck, it was nice, it was private, no rear neighbors.
Sure, there was a chance the town might shut the guy down for good, but there was also a pretty reasonable chance that 3 houses would stand where trees were standing today. What would you do if you bought this place and then found out about the situation a month after closing?
Did the disclosure say a single word? ZERO. Do you really think the owners didn’t know what was going on? Listing agent didn’t say a single word either. Who knew? She’s not a lawyer, she’s not an engineer, she has no expertise in this area.
So yeah, all I do is take people on house tours.
grim [23],
Of course! Not that it might have mattered or not, but the seller sort of “motioned” at the fact that it was a “protected” wet land behind the house. Again, whether that was a red flag or not, I don’t know but the “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” statement was a bit ominous. Was it a great catch? Absolutlely! Would the majority of realtors perform that level of diligence? Not even close.
Walking around a neighborhood and talking to neighbors is due diligence that any buyer should undertake. I know we did that before making an offer.
You are a researcher and an analyst… a different animal altogether. The “others” are telling us, “with the right amount of money, you can do anything with this house.” F.ucking really? All while expecting full price for the p1ss hole. When we sold my Dad’s house after he passed away, the realtor did two things: she listed the house and then sent an email saying congrats at the day of the closing. That’s it. All paperwork and follow-up was done by yours truly. The majority of them serve zero purpose.
Probably because their agency had listings in the town that you would have crushed.
My agent told me I had to ignore a direct comp behind the house mostly because it killed the old f*cks list price.
OMFG!
(CNN) — So much for a “clean” bill. The measure passed by Congress to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling also contains some goodies and gifts tucked into the 35-page bill.
There’s more money — a lot more — for a dam project on the Ohio River and millions of cash for Colorado flooding repair projects. And the wealthy widow of a late U.S. senator will receive a year’s pay as a death benefit.
You have to hand it to a Congress that finds no bill is off limits for pork.
It’s over for now
Rep Salmon on budget deal
“These people are like alcoholics. They can’t resist taking a drink. It’s ridiculous. It’s absolutely ridiculous,” said Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona to the Daily Beast, referring to the dam project. “It shows that there are people in this body who are willing to use any occasion to get an outrageous pork-barrel project done at the cost of millions and millions of dollars. It’s disgusting.”
Here are five most surprising provisions to the bill:
3. LATE SENATOR’S WIDOW
For decades of service: Frank Lautenberg served in the Senate for almost 30 years. He died in June of viral pneumonia. This nation owed him a great deal. Congress has almost always approved a death benefit gift to the family equal to one year’s salary, which they provided for Lautenberg’s widow, Bonnie, in the bill. The thing is … Lautenberg was one of the richest members of Congress and was worth more than $59 million as of 2011, according to The Hill. You can see why some people think it might not be a terrible thing to forgo $174,000 to the family.
I dont like Grims advice on that property.
First I would have bought it jammed it full of mexicans and not fixed anything, then tell neighbor behind me I will sign every variance and help him get nieghbors to agree to his crazy plan for a nice 100K check. Then I would take out max flood insurance on the dump, then I would get a huge flood from his house, file a huge casualty loss then put in a claim to build a brand new fema/flood resistant house for free then sell that brand new home for triple my purchase price.
I dream of seeing Congresspeople being run down in the street and pummeled by a pack of angry bikers…..
29.chicagofinance says:
October 17, 2013 at 11:14 am
OMFG!
(CNN) — So much for a “clean” bill. The measure passed by Congress to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling also contains some goodies and gifts tucked into the 35-page bill.
Ok I want your opinion on this.
So the place I bought a few months ago that is rented out has tax bills to pay since I have no mortgage I have to pay myself. At closing the title insurance I bought said they would take care of stuff.
So anyhow on-line I notice the tax exemptions prior owner has is still the record. I call town a few weeks ago without giving name and I am told generally it can take 2-4 months for assesor to catch up with sales so you may get lucky and get the break this year.
So tax bills are mailed last week. I dont get one at my house. Tenant did not get one at his house, so realtor checks with prior owner and somehow it ends up with them. Lady was like about to freek about she got a tax bill for a home she sold.
I told the lady look mail me bill and I will pay it and put change of address on back. She was like why do I have bill? From what I gather bill was sent to the place I own but she did mail forwarding to her new address and her name was on bill so I never got it.
If you were lady how would you feel getting a tax bill on a home you sold already? I mean she had a lawyer, I had a lawyer, condo association transferred bills that day and the tax bill was not over due.
I dont know, do you think folks would be upset? I have a tax bill on my primary so I need the actual bill to pay it so she needs to send it to me. The actual bill has a change of address/name on the back of it. I mean I need the bill. It is due soon, so I dont want to go through trouble of getting a new one. Also at this point the bill has old rate so it is less. The next bill is not due after this till 11-1-14
It still is unclear to me in my case when someone buys a place for cash from a person who owns the home outright whose job is it to change tax bills. Prior owner, current owner, title company. Taxes were fully paid when I bought it and I paid at closing so I had no tax bill to settle up at closing so I never even saw this bill.
Realtors are frankly useless. If you know something about houses you can do much better on your own.
I find it amusing: this blog is full of people who only think of their interest yet they entertain the possibility that the realtor could have your best interest at heart.
Make no mistake about it a realtor has his own interest at heart: spend minimal time for maximum profit. He will not do the research for you (even if he claims otherwise) and will dump you if he thinks you are wasting too much of his time.
The whole model is rotten and serves an army of unqualified ruthless hypocrites. I think it would have been much better if realtors were paid by the hour or showing and give you back some or all of their commission at closing. I think Redfin has a better model so realtors beware when it reaches NJ.
7 dumbest mistakes when faking your own death
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101118892
But to be honest, they cant add value.
Think about it buyers get it cheap sellers screwed, sellers make a ton buyers screwed or deal is fair market price each side loses after commission.
On a macro basis they cant add value.
realtor advice says:
October 17, 2013 at 12:24 pm
Realtors are frankly useless. If you know something about houses you can do much better on your own.
Home Downsizing Has Become More Difficult, But It Still Pays
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-downsizing-become-more-difficult-132525297.html
@SenSanders: The U.S. has been severely damaged by this shutdown and the American people have now seen right-wing extremism in action. #GOPShutdown
I’m sure there are some who provide value. I just have never met one. The lying across the board is something I find intolerable. I had the buyer and seller agent both claiming they knew nothing of the (much bigger and better)house behind that sold for much less in April this year. Gee, I thought that was their job.
They feed off of deception and ignorance. As my Irish mom says you have to keep a dog and bark too. That is real estate game.
I agree, real estate agents are largely worthless trash, meaningless in the grand scheme, and are largely toll takers.
However, nobody needs to use a real estate agent at all, plenty of homes are purchased and sold, every year, in private party transactions.
The cognitive dissonance here is that they still feel entitled to the benefits the real estate agency model provides, and they want them for free. That ain’t gunna happen.
However, there are plenty of great options: FSBO, For Sale By Owner, Craigslist, your local newspaper, hell Zillow has got an amazing FSBO platform.
Check ’em out, but don’t complain about having to buy through an agency if a seller has chosen to sell through an agency (or you don’t like the even more limited inventory sold through the FSBO channels).
For example, when my neighbor sells her house and retires to FL, she knows I’ve already got buyers lined up for it. I’ll have right of first refusal, and the transaction will be private party.
These are the kinds of transactions that get executed private party. Family buys the house next door, or across the street, because they want to live on the same street as their sister, brother, parents, etc. Retiree puts the word out that the house is for sale to the neighbors, and someone tells an acquaintance about it, etc.
Unfortunately, this private market is about as local as it gets, and will never be made any more public than two people talking on the street corner.
By the way, I went over to the NYSE the other day, and the security wouldn’t let me in.
All I wanted to do was buy and sell some of my stock, they told me I couldn’t. Don’t understand, looks easy in the movies.
Blame Abbie Hoffman for that at New York Stock Exchange. Great Story from back in the day. I met Abbie once at Stony Brook when he did a presentation. He was great, better than great. He was on the FBI most wanted list and he did a college tour. I also loved “Steal This Book”
Another one of Hoffman’s well-known protests was on August 24, 1967, when he led members of the movement to the gallery of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The protesters threw fistfuls of real and fake dollars down to the traders below, some of whom booed, while others began to scramble frantically to grab the money as fast as they could. [8] Accounts of the amount of money that Hoffman and the group tossed was said to be as little as $30 to $300.[9] Hoffman claimed to be pointing out that, metaphorically, that’s what NYSE traders “were already doing.” “We didn’t call the press”, wrote Hoffman, “at that time we really had no notion of anything called a media event.” The press was quick to respond and by evening the event was reported around the world. Since that incident, the stock exchange has spent $20,000 to enclose the gallery with bulletproof glass.[10]
grim says:
October 17, 2013 at 2:03 pm
By the way, I went over to the NYSE the other day, and the security wouldn’t let me in.
All I wanted to do was buy and sell some of my stock, they told me I couldn’t. Don’t understand, looks easy in the movies.
You dont need to be a realtor to sell a house. I sold one a few weeks ago. I saw a place listed cheap, I called lady up asked some questions and said you know what that is a great price I would buy it in a second but I just bought a place.
I asked lady why is it not on MLS she said she is not a member. I then say I am friends with a realtor and I know she has a few friends who want to buy in the building and we can get this sold at this price she will do all showing in a week or two. She goes tell you what, I dont want a realtor, but I will pay your friend 2% cash if she gets a buyer direct to her. BOOM< lady shows it to a couple at that price point who wanted to live in that building, sold that week. She then calls me up and says when she gets her 2% cash she will give me $500 cash finders fee.
That is how deals get done. Now that sale is around 25k below comps and folks wont even know of sale maybe till months afterwards. MLS loves to jam sales in every data base. Sales outside MLS take awhile to appear anywhere.
Julian Proctor Van Winkle III and his son Julian Preston Van Winkle are the proprietors of Kentucky’s Old Rip Van Winkle Distillery, and they make the best bourbon in the world at a rate of roughly 7,000 cases per year. Which is why you can’t find any of it, anywhere. Sighting a bottle of the 20-year-old Pappy Van Winkle’s Family Reserve, which retails at $130, in a liquor store is like spotting a Scaly-Sided Meganser in the wild. The Van Winkles are personally beset by desperate high-class drunks seeking an in. Personal assistants have wasted days trying to track down bottles for well-heeled bosses. Pappy is furtively deployed to seal multi-million-dollar business deals. Leads are whispered about among aficianados: “I heard about a warehouse in Jersey that just got a shipment.”
Smart Guns are a dumb idea
http://www.nj.com/morris/index.ssf/2013/10/smart_guns_are_a_dumb_idea_assemblyman_tells_gun_supporters.html
Yeh, and every seller thinks they are a Van winkle, offering their special product that every trips over to get. Reality is I just checked and there are no under contracts this week and 100 houses in 550k and under bucket. Only two have lowered their asking prices recently. More like Rip Van Winkles..go back to sleep and dream a buyer is coming to pay double your 2001 price for no updates.
[37] anon,
But the trillions in debt incurred up to this point has been like a tonic . . . Oh yeah, Comrade Sanders has all the answers.
I like right wing extremists. When TSHTF, they will kill the left wing extremists.
And Wilmington seriously smells. I got out of the elevator into the garage last night and the entire place smelled like the bottom of a restaurant dumpster. Got in my MDX and turned vents to recirculate.
Today, went out at lunch and there it was again, only fainter but still the same dumpster smell. Permeated the entire downtown for blocks. Got my sub and went back to the office to eat it cuz I didn’t feel like getting grossed out. Yet I saw folks in outdoor seating on Market St, seemingly oblivious to the smell.
nom they are better armed and only have to head to places like Cambridge, Providence, Princeton, Fairafax county. I think minorities will be really confused by the whole bloody affair.
[45] street justice,
Your post reminded me of a story on the news that became quite the hit and featured prominently in an NRA ad back in 2000. Governor Glendening of Maryland was advocating trigger locks built into guns. He was trying to argue that they would not interfere with the use of the gun. There was video of him in a legislative conference trying to open the gun. He was fumbling with it for about two minutes, and there was a good deal of laughing in the room.
NRA took the video and used it in an ad. Glendening went nuts and threatened the NRA unless they pulled the ad. FWIW, the legislation died.
I saw this on the news and I saw the ad. Yet when I try to locate the video of Glendening on the internet, I got bupkis. This isn’t the first time I have tried to locate content that I had seen or read that cast liberals in a poor light, only to find it has no presence on the internet. And it seems I am not the only person who ran into that dead end: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2166874/posts
Pappy is good stuff. I know some people slam it because they are good marketers. They understand that demand drives more demand. They’d not be nearly as well known if their product was easy to get. That’s some of the magic behind it.
I suspect why so many people like it, is it’s a wheat bourbon, as opposed to rye. Hell, it’s why I like it. Makes for good sippin likker.
My distillery, by the way, will be distilling a high wheat bourbon (whiskey from bourbon mash) next year for release likely the year following.
[49] Pain,
They are better armed only if the police and military side with them. And the military cannot get involved unless a governor of a state requests it.
But I agree that they would retreat to the Northeast and west coast urban enclaves. That’s when you starve them out ;-)
good thing I know how to get food.
; ) by the way not fond of Willmington either the few times I have been there.
I think the state of NJ should donate Essex and Hudson counties to New York State. Each of those counties are close to NYC and voted 78% in favor of the parasite Booker. Addition by subtraction.
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/10/booker_vs_lonegan_county-by-county_voting_results_in_us_senate_election.html
Since Lonegan was essentially faceless/nameless….that is quite an indictment of Booker’s electability…….he may have reached his ceiling…..let’s see whether he figures that one out or not……
Ragnar says:
October 17, 2013 at 4:39 pm
I think the state of NJ should donate Essex and Hudson counties to New York State. Each of those counties are close to NYC and voted 78% in favor of the parasite Booker. Addition by subtraction.
“I think the state of NJ should donate Essex and Hudson counties to New York State. Each of those counties are close to NYC and voted 78% in favor of the parasite Booker. Addition by subtraction.”
Booker still wins in your donation scenario. Heck, you can give them Passaic and Bergen and he still eeks out a win.
Pete,
Right, but I’d still like to get rid of them. Hand over Camden to Pennsylvania too.
More makers, fewer takers.
This election cost us 18 dollars a vote, unacceptable. I didn’t even get hors d’oeuvres and a drink.
And I hear the debt limit bill includes a provision to provide Lautenberg’s multi millionaire wife will a full years pay?
I’d propose we keep Camden. Bulldozers are cheap to run.
Maybe because I’ve been in Bergen County my whole life, but I’ve known Lonegan far longer than I’ve known Booker.
Voter turnout was a record low 24 percent. We should have elections on a Saturday.
[57] Ragnar,
PA doesn’t want Camden. About the only part of NJ we’d consider taking is the Shore.
Maybe we could package Camden with southern DelCo and palm it all off on Delaware?
[53] pain
There isnt much here to be fond of. After 11/1, I am out of here.
[2] grim
“Misinterpretation – Sounds more like JPM has a huge fraud problem, or worse, potentially a trafficking/laundering problem … or if we wish to apply Occam’s Razor here, just another f*ing way to put a bigger fee on something.”
First, as to fraud, these are business accounts that are being capped. If there is fraud, you don’t do the wire at all. And if the bank did its KYC, and it does more on business than individuals, there should not be a fraud problem. And fraud on who? The bank? You can’t wire funds you don’t have and the bank isn’t liable if the wire was authorized by a person authorized to do so, even if that person was a fraudster.
Money laundering? Same issue. And why limit all foreign wires? Why not limit wires to SCAP countries? Or countries on the OFAC watch list?
As for fees, businesses are cost sensitive and have options. Increase their cost to do banking with JPM and they decamp to Citi or SunTrust or BofA, or a regional or a foreign bank. Besides, they aren’t making it more expensive, they said they won’t do it at all. And you can’t argue that the bank is just making them send 5 wires for 10K rather than one for 50K because a well-advised business will not do that as it would land them on an SAR. Even if the wires were perfectly legit.
No, I’ve noodled over this and there is no good reason for a bank to do this. Unless it was told to.
Now, it may be urban legend or it may be a trial balloon. I’ve not heard JPM deny it, and I have not heard of other banks issuing similar edicts. I’m waiting for one or the other to happen.
I finally had a chance to dig into this a bit and I stand corrected. . . .
http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahtouryalai/2013/10/17/no-jpm-isnt-banning-international-wire-transfers-no-limits-on-withdrawals-either/
This makes sense and seems to confirm what Grim proposed. It’s more about restructuring business relationships to garner more fees.
[66] redux
But I do note that this may cause some JPM clients to look elsewhere.
Our economy would not function if we could not wire money in the tens of billions daily overseas.
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/august/large-scale-asset-purchase-stimulus-interest-rate/
Been searching for some months now. It’s very frustrating. So many
dated dumps, all should have another full bath for the price it’s being listed for.
They all require substantial work to be done. Thus far good experience
w realtor who is very responsive.
Nj dept of labor failed to release last months unemployment numbers today….
Do they get the data from the US Labor department? Is it a possible shutdown victim?