From the NY Times:
Homeowners who refinanced when fixed mortgage rates dropped below 4 percent will be less inclined to put their homes on the market as interest rates climb. And as a result, the limited property supply already impeding sales in many markets may not ease anytime soon.
A recent survey by Redfin, a national real estate brokerage based in Seattle, suggests that even those beneficiaries of low-refinance rates who do decide to move may want to make money renting out their homes while waiting for prices to rise, rather than sell right away.
Redfin questioned 1,900 people nationwide who said they planned to buy a home within a year; 42 percent said they already owned one, and of those, 39 percent said they planned to rent it out after they moved. The survey also asked buyers about their frustrations with the process, and “low inventory” topped the list.
…
“These are the folks that will think twice before they pay off that mortgage that is such cheap money,” he said. “They’re going to explore all types of options before they do that.”
…
But he views another scenario as more likely for low-rate holders: Those who can’t afford to move on without selling will essentially be “locked into” their homes. As interest rates rise, even buying another home at the same price will result in a higher mortgage payment.In a recent analysis of the effect of lock-ins, Mr. Hendershott predicted that if rates continue to rise, the result will be substantial declines in housing turnover in strong housing markets, in which large numbers of households refinanced at low rates.
“We had a big episode of this in the 1980s,” he said, recalling when soaring interest rates locked in large numbers of homeowners.
Research cited in his analysis found that during that period, household mobility declined by 15 percent for every 2 percent increase in rates.
first, unfortunately.
Those who can’t afford to move on without selling will essentially be “locked into” their homes. As interest rates rise, even buying another home at the same price will result in a higher mortgage payment.
Interest rates are theoretically at zero now and the wheel is barely turning. Any rise from here and the market will be dead. And why would you move without selling? I don’t quite get that statement but regardless, most of us looking to trade up will continue to see over-priced sh1tholes for the foreseeable future.
Ok, I just re-read the article: apparently a lot of people are thinking of renting their current home and buying the next house. Hmm… maybe I should do the same.
Is this a house or a pod? Just under $400,000 for the first time home buyer. Even 10% down is huge chunk of change. Seriously, this house needs to be closer to 300K:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1406322&dayssince=&countysearch=false
Re: First time buyers: I saw it when I went to one of those open houses in Ho Ho Kus last week. The house was a ranch; no great shakes, just sort of ok and blah sitting on a wedge-shaped property. That whole section could have very well been Saddle Brook or Elmwood Park or Clifton if you didn’t know any better. There was a young couple looking at the house the same time as us. I’d say they were early 30s.
The girl started crying as they were walking down the driveway after leaving the house. Her husband put his arm around her and the realtor woman representing them patted her on the arm. I know what she was saying… didn’t have to hear it. I could tell by the body language. she was saying “600K plus for this?”
This market is as royally f.ucked now as it was when the sh1t hit the fan six years ago. Nothing has changed. When I go to see these houses now, it’s purely for the entertainment value as I know the “can live with” list quickly grows out of control.
Explain to me who the buyer is for this house? No, seriously, I want to know who the target buyer is? Is it someone with 4 kids? And if you have 4 kids, can you afford it? Help me understand.
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1403759&dayssince=&countysearch=false
There are parts of this house that are so lifeless, I can picture someone drinking a half bottle of Clan McGregor as they’re sitting in the dusk as a steady rain falls and taking their life with a single shot to the head:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1406199&dayssince=&countysearch=false
$750,000 and it’s completely empty. It’s dated and probably smells, too. They all have that wonderful aroma when you walk in the door:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1405613&dayssince=&countysearch=false
[6] eddie
It looks like a larger version of my house.
The buyer? John Inglesino of course. Rooms for his three girls and one extra in case he gets lucky.
I am sooooo glad I am out of the NJ real estate market forever.
$425,000 on over an acre but they don’t give you the location. Description says it needs TLC but it looks like a decent layout. Ok, so what’s the issue with this one? Main road? Highway next door? Flood zone? All of the above?
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1342848&dayssince=&countysearch=false
Nom [9],
But who’s buying it? Who needs six bedrooms? Everyone that I know has two kids, max! The cost for two kids as off the charts, let alone three or more! And then there’s the maintenance, taxes and utilities!
Nom,
I just re-read your post! ;)
Let me put it in perspective how far out of control the housing market is in our neck of the woods: My brother bought a house in Glen Rock in 1998 for 235K; sold the house in 2001 for 410K; the guy who bought the house sold it in 2005 for 710K. From 1998 until now, based on a long term trend of 3.5% appreciation, the house should be listed at 407K. Do you see how brainwashed and drunk with propaganda the masses have become?
gary (3)-
Quickest path to financial ruin. Maybe as quick as buying a boat or a fleet of motorcycles. Landlording is a business; don’t learn that the hard way.
“Ok, I just re-read the article: apparently a lot of people are thinking of renting their current home and buying the next house. Hmm… maybe I should do the same.”
gary (5)-
This market is what you get as the end result of transfusing a cadaver.
Meat,
There’s no way I’d rent my house and become a landlord. I’ll let the stock market continue to compound my interest (literally and figuratively). The most fascinating thing about the housing market is how layer after layer of denial is slathered on yet, eventually, the p.uss will still ooze from the wound no matter how hard one tries to look away. I see a housing transaction as simply nothing more than one party being used as a prop for a ruse. What a shame.
Wasn’t I saying this, but got trashed by a lot of people on the board. Max out any loan you can get and purchase a house, it’s practically free money. Problem is, only people that can get a loan, are people that have the down payment and qualify. If you don’t have the 20% down, and your credit is not great, you are not getting a cheap money loan.
“These are the folks that will think twice before they pay off that mortgage that is such cheap money,” he said. “They’re going to explore all types of options before they do that.”
18- you’ll get a loan, but not the cheap money loan.
Here we go, robbing from Peter to give to Paul.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2014/03/flood_insurance_rollbacks_affecting_thousands_in_nj_headed_to_presidents_desk.html#incart_river_default
“”It forces the vast majority of flood insurance policyholders to pay a little more so that those with subsidized rates can continue to pay less than what they should, whether they need assistance or not, and it wipes out important reforms that would ensure that the National Flood Insurance Program will be able to pay claims from future storms without a taxpayer-funded bailout,” said Jimi Grande, senior vice president of federal and political affairs for NAMIC.”
Gary, the stock market is merely the least sick wildebeest in the herd of markets. Eventually, it will succumb to the inexorable reality that we have a necronomy that is about nothing, produces nothing and generates no more than spasmodic, meaningless, non-productive activity of the lipstick-the-pig variety.
The torpor and Chinese water torture will continue, until the whole rig-up collapses under its own pustulent, rotting weight.
Think there is a real housing market? Walk into a Clodwell Bunco or Weichert office at noon on a Wednesday, then give us a report.
Meat,
Gary, the stock market is merely the least sick wildebeest in the herd of markets.
No denying but I can tolerate the up and down wave. People still need to brush their teeth and wipe their a.ss in between the circus acts. That’s where the dividend gets reinvested.
Love to stick around and talk, but I need to stuff my pie hole with white flour, HCFS and potatoes.
Who gets jail and who does not…….
loss estimated at $2.5 million to $7 million
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2014/03/ringleader_of_international_luxury_car_theft_ring_sentenced_to_nearly_22_years.html#incart_m-rpt-1
$45 million in ill-gotten profits
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/15/angelo-mozilo-countrywide_n_764788.html
Eddie [6];
if you have 4 kids, can you afford it?
I’ll take a stab at this one — the answer is yes. Only someone who can afford 4 kids can afford that price point. Kids used to be cheap labor and retirement security; now government provides retirement security and kids are decidedly a luxury good. You don’t dare have a third unless you can afford to buy and feed a 3-row SUV to take them places — no more piling in the back seat; every one needs their own crash-proof cocoon. I’m convinced that the laws will be periodically changed so that my kids will learn to drive from a booster seat. Add the costs of day care for a two income family, daily extra-curricular activities, even modest college savings — the middle class can’t really afford two kids. More than two kids is the sole province of the upper class and under class.
Not sure how anyone can afford 2 kids, you see the going rate of a 3br rental in NYC?
It might be cheaper to just go with invitro, that way you can pick the sex and have 2 boys or 2 girls to share a room.
20
“Robbing peter to pay paul”
?
Declining fertility is a tell for degenerate societies.
David Brenner<Vigoda
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
Slow start, shaky future for millennials
http://usat.ly/1iQPXcQ
Joyce, you see it different? Screw subsidizing people living in flood zones!
Problem is, only people that can get a loan, are people that have the down payment and qualify. If you don’t have the 20% down, and your credit is not great, you are not getting a cheap money loan.
Why is that a problem? In a sane world, risk level should determine the loan you can obtain.
32- Jesus, I’m so far ahead of my peers, that it is not even funny. I don’t even know if I believe this. This is pathetic.
Based on most people’s philosophy on this board, you guys should be embracing me. Not putting me down. I’m 33, and my wife and I carry no debt except for a mortgage. No college debt, car payments, or cc debt. We contribute 28,000 in property taxes for two properties. Basically, based on my peers, you need so called idiots like me.
Btw, I still think people complaining about house prices, take up my bet. I bet that in 10 years, no matter what you pay for a house right now, it will be a winning investment if you sell that property in 10 years. Obviously, the location will determine how much you make. Crappy areas, not much profit, but there will be profit. Nice areas, the profit will leave you with a kool aid smile. Based on this USA today article, all these 30 year olds with nothing right now, will become a buyer in 7 years along with the next generation of 30 year olds stepping up to the plate. The market will take off like it did in the 80’s and early 2000’s. Now, tell me how I’m an idiot. I’m used to it by now.
“According to the Pew Research Center, the median net worth of a household headed by someone younger than 35 in 1984 was $12,132 in
today’s dollars. Now, it’s $6,815.”
“According to the Pew Research Center, the median net worth of a household headed by someone younger than 35 in 1984 was $12,132 in today’s dollars. Now, it’s $6,815.”
You can account for the entirety of the inflation adjusted difference in one shot – cost of college. Actually, taking into account the cost of college, it would seem that today’s young adults are actually doing better. Post secondary enrollment is now significantly higher than in 1984, or technically, the early 1970s when the earlier group would have been in college.
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind02/c1/fig01-20.htm
With more kids going to college, by race, by income level:
https://trends.collegeboard.org/education-pays/figures-tables/enrollment-rates-family-income-1984-2008
It only makes sense that net worth is lower for this group. Sorry, but this is not a stretch.
I don’t have a problem with it. I was just stating that the problem for most people, they can’t qualify to take advantage of the cheap money. Meaning, not everyone can take advantage of the bad economic conditions. If you can, you would be wise to do it while you the opportunity is there.
“Ben says:
March 16, 2014 at 9:39 am
Problem is, only people that can get a loan, are people that have the down payment and qualify. If you don’t have the 20% down, and your credit is not great, you are not getting a cheap money loan.
Why is that a problem? In a sane world, risk level should determine the loan you can obtain.”
36- thanks grim, I was trying to make sense of that figure, now it does make sense.
What’s the difference in inflation adjusted net worth? $20k? That hardly even pays for college, and last I checked you can’t offset your student loan debt with the “value” of your degree.
36- you know what I think hurts this country, we are enrolling more in college, but we are not graduating more. Too many kids enroll and drop out after it becomes too difficult. So they waste time and money on something that is not for them, or they take the easy way out and graduate with a pointless degree. Funny, because it’s not really the easy way out, no degree is easy to achieve, so you are still working hard to earn a degree, but afterwards, you will have to work even harder to find a job.
Someone needs to come up with a way for low skilled workers to bring some sort of value to the table. These machines and robots coming through the R&D pipeline are going to swallow these jobs up faster than a bullfrog eating it’s prey when they start hitting the market in short time.
Post secondary enrollment is skyrocketing with the advent of online degrees. I think it’s a big joke. These “accelerated” online advanced degree programs hardly carry the rigor I would even expect from a high school course.
I’ve been writing curriculum on the side for two online degree programs. They don’t want it to be hard. They want it to be a joke. They are basically designing the curriculum to be easy so that whoever is going for the degree online won’t have to dedicate any actual time to it.
Post secondary enrollment is skyrocketing with the advent of online degrees.
The first graph I posted in 36 stops in 1999, well before online degrees, and shows a sizable increase. The skyrocket was in place for a while. So are more traditional college students opting for online? Maybe that’s not so bad? At least they waste less money on a meaningless education.
Robots can’t build oil rigs, refineries, dams, turbines, nuclear power plants, pipelines, transmission lines, roads, bridges, tunnels, airports, ports, mills, etc.
Perhaps we might focus on infrastructure?
Run, don’t walk folks. Purchased for $2.7 in 2010 they just dropped the ask under $2 mill. Sure the taxes are 41k but you gotta pay for those fabulous views of route 78 rush hour traffic from the upstairs balcony.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/58-Bissell-Rd-Lebanon-NJ-08833/90185093_zpid/
45 – Pretty nice house, buyer paid cash.
Looks like they downsized from a 20,000 foot house to buy that one.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703309704575413433066738808
Hmm, looks like they still own that one too, it’s got an assessed value of $1.77m
And the industrial property that houses the company the owner is CEO of – that one’s assessed at $2.4 million.
Across just these three properties, they pay almost $150,000 in property taxes to the state of NJ. I’m thankful for folks like this.
44- Infrastructure is going to start becoming a main issue. Might actually be a good idea to start some type of construction business. Look at how old these houses are in the northeast. Places like Newark and Paterson have nowhere to go but to be rebuilt in the next 50 years. Newark has already started the rebuilding of the area by the Rock.
46 – the owners are tacky as he!!. They lined the driveway with a ton of crystal pineapple lampposts that look like Home Depot’s interpretation of Charleston and every December they put enormous lighted displays on the lawn you could see for miles.
I like the exterior more than the interior myself. Too bad a similar sized home is being built so close next door. I wonder if the working horse farm across the street, which is for sale, smells in the summer. We always assumed the horse farm went on the market because they couldn’t stand the obnoxious Christmas / Hanukkah displays.
Builder that sold that house looks to be putting new homes on both sides, one smaller, around 4k square feet, the other similar sized – 8k. Those lots appear to be very narrow 3 acre lots, so I agree with your assessment about close proximity. Horse farm is probably just looking to capitalize on the development, with 8 acres they could subdivide into two buildable lots.
Original asking price on that place from the builder was $3.45m, the larger new house will have a similar asking price I believe. Going to be a tough sell if they dump that place even cheaper.
Owners are older, based on a recent news story the owner is 91.
The term “non-profit” has come to be so abused, it’s sickening. Another idea that came out with good intentions, and has since been corrupted to levels that are now sickening.
51- I’m starting a charter school. Time to make some big money off of a naive/gullible population of citizens.
Or better yet, start some foundation to find a cure for stupidity. Anyone want to donate? 100% of funds are donated after my annual million dollar salary is covered.
Doubt they can subdivide 8 acres in the highlands preservation area unless they did it 15 years ago.
[52] Michael
Welcome to the dark side.
Is the place across the street called Ridge Farm? If so, all that property previously belonged to the owner of that, she appears to have subdivided at some time (3 properties across the street). I can’t tell but they were already subdivided by the mid 2000s and sold to the builder. The farm had a new deed on it circa 2003, so I suspect if it took place, it happened at that point. I believe that would have been 1 year prior?
OK since Gary started the theme I’ll put in my own $.02 as I’ve actually been in this one:
http://www.weichert.com/49052723/
Dropping steadily since Sept., I’d say it’s worth about $280,000. As for condition, lets put it this way – there’s a reason there are no interior shots.
2:10 in the nyc half bitchez
The first graph I posted in 36 stops in 1999, well before online degrees, and shows a sizable increase. The skyrocket was in place for a while. So are more traditional college students opting for online? Maybe that’s not so bad? At least they waste less money on a meaningless education.
Not really. I can give you an example of it being bad. Public school teachers are now increasingly opting for these online programs to boost their salary 10-15k. A lot of them get hired and then they get the district to pay for their online degree. Next thing you know, 3 years later, they jumped the ladder with two masters and collect 10 to 15k more. The principals and supers are all doing it as well. They all get their doctorate in 3 years while somehow working a full time job.
When the stats say that a teacher getting their masters does not improve student education, this is a big reason why. The shame is, anyone who went through a rigorous program gets lumped in with those who went through these online programs.
That is exactly how I see it; why don’t all subsidies bother you?
Michael says:
March 16, 2014 at 8:52 am
Joyce, you see it different? Screw subsidizing people living in flood zones!
grim (47)-
Michael Vick nearly bought the Annandale monstrosity. The Bissell Rd house is actually a POS. Also, the entire Bissell Rd area is famous for not perc’ing and failed septics.
Charlie,
Just under a 10min / mile… what was your goal? was that your first?
61 – That racketball court would make a great dog fight ring.
[35] michael
“Now, tell me how I’m an idiot. I’m used to it by now.”
Look at the title: It’s the New Jersey Real Estate Report. The first two words tell you all you need to know about how argument is conducted here.
Dammit. The damn Ruskies are feeling a little frisky aren’t they? This damn Crimea vote is a bunch of damn bullspit. Let me tell you something, if it wasn’t for that damn pantywaist president of ours, they would have never pulled a damn stunt like this. It’s high damn time to teach those damn commies a damn lesson—and while we’re at it, we need to itch slap China for good measure. Here’s what you do when you’re not bucking around: You put some damn troops right in Crimea and tell Putin to hightail his ass back home because we’re taking over the damn Ukraine and that means that we overthrow whoever the hell we want to. The sanction crap is the wuss’ way out. Real men march right to damn Moscow if they have to. As long as you have a limp wrist pantywaist liberal sitting in the damn presidency, you’ll have Putin and China thinking they can do what the hell they want. Romney would have never taken this crap.
56 – yes, but the entire 8 acres appears to still be on 1 tax parcel, doesn’t even look like its farm assessed. Also seems like buildable lot would be in the listing or it would be listed under land too. Anyway, the farms house is right on the road so the giant lighted Star of David and the choo choo train were maybe 30 feet from her windows.
64- lol…sad but true
[67] michael
Now you know why I despair of having an erudite discussion here. And I am sort of joking about the NJ part. It is actually far better here than most places where I express views but not without its invective. Get used to it.
FWIW, I don’t think you an idiot. I do see where you are coming from. But we clearly have divergent views about how to solve problems we both identify. FWIW, I see a bipolar inconsistency to your views at times but that isn’t fatal if explainable. I think you will find most posters amenable to being convinced and those who aren’t, fcuk ’em.
I thought “Failed Septic” one of those new microbrews? It is a bit strong, right in your face, but it finishes really well…..
Ascent of the Robots says:
March 16, 2014 at 3:13 pm
grim (47)-
Michael Vick nearly bought the Annandale monstrosity. The Bissell Rd house is actually a POS. Also, the entire Bissell Rd area is famous for not perc’ing and failed septics.
Mmmm. Loves me a heady craft brew.
lol. pikalaina ilman luottotietoja
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