From the WSJ:
Housing Recovery’s Missing Link: First-Time Buyers
Economists, real-estate agents and many home builders expected first-time and entry-level buyers to begin returning to the market this year, jump-starting the sputtering housing recovery. So far, that hasn’t happened.
Less buying at the market’s lower end by first-time buyers has contributed to limiting sales of existing homes so far this year to a pace of roughly 88% of their 10-year average. It’s also a factor in stunting sales of newly built homes to a pace of roughly 60% of their annual average since 2000.
Some economists now predict that tight lending standards, high prices and the sluggish economic recovery will keep first-timers from returning in full force for several years. That likely means a slower pace for the housing recovery, already a drag on the broader economy in the past year.
“We likely have hit the bottom in the past six months or so regarding the lack of participation of first-time buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “It may take three years to return to normal first-time-buyer participation.”
…
Myriad other factors have dogged first-time buyers in recent years. According to Census data, Americans from 25 to 34 years of age experienced the biggest decline in income—9%—of any age group from 2007 to 2012 other than people younger than 25. Many also are grappling with student debt that crimps their cash flow.What’s more, there are fewer affordable homes available for first-timers to purchase. Nationally, the median price of an existing home has increased by 5.2% in the past year to $201,700. The median price of a newly built home registered $275,800 in April, down 1% from a year earlier.
…
The surest route to normalcy for the housing market is for first-time and entry-level buyers to rebound, economists say.First-time buyers now account for about 16% of new-home purchases, down from a range of 25% to 28% between 2001 and 2007, according to the National Association of Home Builders. In the existing-home market, first-timers accounted for 29% of purchases in April, according to the Realtors association. That’s down from their monthly share exceeding 40%, and occasionally surpassing 50%, in 2009 and 2010 when a federal tax credit for first-time buyers was offered.
…
The dynamics could stunt the entry-level market and broader economy for years to come. Economists believe younger Americans now are much more likely to rent for longer periods than did earlier generations—due not only to the rising home prices and high credit standards but also the high student debt levels and elevated levels of underemployment.Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, expects a “slow build” in first-time and entry-level home purchases starting this year. But “there are several headwinds,” he said, pointing to elevated levels of unemployment among younger workers and high levels of student-loan debt. “They’ve had a tough financial time.…I’m sure they’re psychologically scarred by the economic roller-coaster of the last 10 years.”
On the bright side, housing-market observers note that U.S. job growth is improving, mortgage-lending standards are loosening ever so slightly and many young adults likely are getting weary of living with roommates or their parents.
“We likely have hit the bottom in the past six months or so regarding the lack of participation of first-time buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
They must have this guy propped up by a 2 x 4, a few strings and an ethyl oxide intravenous. Another bottom, followed by some blah blah about growth, followed by sideways, more blah blah about a bottom and ending with a f.art. This guy is like a f.ucking Monty Python skit.
According to Census data, Americans from 25 to 34 years of age experienced the biggest decline in income—9%—of any age group from 2007 to 2012 other than people younger than 25. Many also are grappling with student debt that crimps their cash flow.
F.uck you, pay me.
$665,000, in a sh1tty section of 60 foot wide lots. The houses in this neighborhood say “rural Alabama.” Notice the “dining room.” The first floor layout is a disaster.
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1419262&dayssince=&countysearch=false
You might as well be in Vernon because that’s about the same amount of time your commute is going to be. Forget about the cavernous, wasted space in this house:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1419227&dayssince=&countysearch=false
THIS house should be 665K, not 825K. Let the market take care of itself, clear out the pretenders and let things return to normal. Can’t afford the house? Too f.ucking bad. The plankton process is dead.
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1414645&dayssince=&countysearch=false
The surest route to normalcy for the housing market is for first-time and entry-level buyers to rebound, economists say.
Click your ruby heels together and repeat this sentence three times.
Bystander,
I think we both ran into this guy. :) Lol!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T5iBqPM4tE
Oh no, the world just lost an innovator.
Iran billionaire executed over $2.6B state bank scam.
http://news.yahoo.com/iran-billionaire-executed-over-2-6b-bank-fraud-104949782.html;_ylt=A0LEVzB0mYBTcwEASQ3BGOd_;_ylu=X3oDMTBsa3ZzMnBvBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw–
I have been making offers on houses for a few months now. Life circumstances have changed and I want to get out of the rental I have been living in since my divorce. This week I had an offer rejected on a house with an original asking price of $565,000 now reduced to $525,000. My offer was what I considered to be market value, $450,000. House was built in the early 70’s and needed updating and repairs.
Seller’s agent calls me after presenting offer to the sellers. Seller purchased house for $540,000 in 2004 and refinanced $440,000 mortgage last year. Agent told me their bottom line is $500,000. If they can’t get that much they cannot afford to buy the home they would like to down size to.
Clearly this is a big part of the problem Fast Eddie and others are running into in the current market. Sure this guy isn’t underwater, but for all intents and purposes how is it really any different? Bottom line is that the home I offered on and many, many others are in the same situation. They cannot sell for market value so in effect these homes are not really for sale!
30 year realtor [9],
Bravo! You’ve described it perfectly. No one can dispute what you say because you are completely immersed in the industry. I’m almost begging for someone to take my business yet there’s nothing there to take.
[8] Michael
There is a similar case brewing in China. Surprised you haven’t picked up on that yet.
Of course, the integrity and fairness of the Iranian and Chinese governments and legal systems, with their strict adherence to rule of law and guarantees against ex post facto charges, are beyond question.
Guess what, when those first time buyers return that’s the beginning of the next bubble. That will be by the start of the next decade. You want a deal, work hard to find something now. Get the best realtor in the area you are looking or start mailing letters to the addresses that interest you.
Fast Eddie says:
May 24, 2014 at 9:16 am
30 year realtor [9],
Bravo! You’ve described it perfectly. No one can dispute what you say because you are completely immersed in the industry. I’m almost begging for someone to take my business yet there’s nothing there to take.
Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
May 24, 2014 at 9:34 am
What makes you think our govt is any less corrupt? Are Chinese billionaires really that much different from their American counterparts? You can only achieve billionaire status in a lifetime by doing some pretty crooked moves. You don’t get there off of one innovative idea.
[8] Michael
There is a similar case brewing in China. Surprised you haven’t picked up on that yet.
Of course, the integrity and fairness of the Iranian and Chinese governments and legal systems, with their strict adherence to rule of law and guarantees against ex post facto charges, are beyond question.
What makes you think our govt is any less corrupt? Are Chinese billionaires really that much different from their American counterparts? You can only achieve billionaire status in a lifetime by doing some pretty crooked moves. You don’t get there off of one innovative idea.
May 24, 2014 at 9:39 am
Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
May 24, 2014 at 9:34 am
[8] Michael
There is a similar case brewing in China. Surprised you haven’t picked up on that yet.
Of course, the integrity and fairness of the Iranian and Chinese governments and legal systems, with their strict adherence to rule of law and guarantees against ex post facto charges, are beyond question.
Give them some jobs and give them some raises. Let’s get this next bubble going already.
“The dynamics could stunt the entry-level market and broader economy for years to come. Economists believe younger Americans now are much more likely to rent for longer periods than did earlier generations—due not only to the rising home prices and high credit standards but also the high student debt levels and elevated levels of underemployment.”
This is what 50-100 years of torpor in real estate markets looks like.
No recovery, not in our lifetimes.
No qualified sellers, everyone underwater.
No first-time buyers, no jobs, no wage increases.
Next steps will be girly-men and declining population.
30 year,
I just got off the phone with my realtor. I have been trying to buy this house for 6 months. Guy started at laughable 540K last year then pulled it in November. He is now down to 470K after arrogantly thinking he would sell at 530K this spring. The place has old, broken windows, rotted siding, and poorly maintained 50 year oil furnace plus a number of other items (old baths, kitchen etc..). No one has put offer in besides me. I upped my cash offer to 420k and he refused to negotiate. He said I am difficult. Old man is 73 and still holding on to 10k-15K that does not exist. He should have moved south already. It is unbelievable how long people are waiting for market to return. He will probably die in the place.
Meat [16],
There’s always one mindless b.astard willing to take a bullet and forfeit his soul to secure his financial ruin. All because some hair technician told him that the prices in town “A” are justified.
Bystander [17],
Send the owner of that house a funeral spray with no note. It’ll be like finding a horse’s head in his bed. He’ll get the message.
I am vowing to not engage the troll, as Clot suggested. He isn’t reachable, and is fundamentally dishonest.
grim,
Just got back from Golden Eagle. Omg, love the place!
Fast Eddie
Might be out of your price range, but it might restore your faith that there is inventory where the house is pure quality.
http://prominentproperties.com/idx.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1414182&listingsystem=njmls
Even has a smoke house in the back yard.
Fabius,
Too much house and too heavy on the price. My mind sees “maintenance” with that place. It has it’s own charm but it’s not for me. :)
This one sold for 1.375 back in 2005 and they’re currently at 1.299 for the ask. When you are doing a big footprint, you better get it right. This one doesn’t get it right:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1404035&dayssince=&countysearch=false
Need some firewood? Run a bulldozer through this mess:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1417565&dayssince=&countysearch=false
$639,000 is the asking price… geezus! The agent and the seller need to be b1tch slapped. And the buyer who signs for anything close to this price needs to be mocked:
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1419213&dayssince=&countysearch=false
Not one but two realtors have contacted me looking to see if I want to sell, there is nothing for sale in my neighborhood. The two listed homes this spring sold within two weeks. Even the one on the corner entrance of the busy road sold and the new owners just put in a berm and a wall of evergreens for more privacy.
Pool is open my house looks better than it did this time last year when I closed on the place, and I am now off to pull some weeds.
Enjoy your weekend.
50-100 years of real estate torpor. Unrelenting Chinese water torture.
I blasted your innovator theory and now you vow not to engage because your argument was presented with flaws. So go use your lame excuse, as to why you can’t fire back!
Also, you failed to address my argument that billionaires prevent competition by not allowing people to fairly compete with them. Thus, they hold back innovation. Facebook is currently doing it, buying out their competition. That’s all these technology companies do once their founders hit billionaire status.
Please stop calling me a troll. I only participate on this blog, and no other. I wouldn’t even know wtf that word means, if idiots on here didn’t label me with that term.
If my arguments are so stupid and wrong, why do you resort to calling me stupid instead of proving my stupid argument wrong. If it is wrong and stupid, surely it is to prove wrong.
Ragnar says:
May 24, 2014 at 2:21 pm
I am vowing to not engage the troll, as Clot suggested. He isn’t reachable, and is fundamentally dishonest.
Another bogus hit from a license plate reader results in another individual surrounded with guns drawn. It resulted in a “felony stop” of Green, which included being ordered out of her vehicle and onto the ground at gunpoint and held in cuffs for nearly 20 minutes while officers verified the plates and filled out paperwork.
Once again, we see law enforcement deploying technology without guidelines for usage. (We also see Sgt. Kim’s reluctance to spoil a felony stop by actually reading a license plate that was directly in front of him for several minutes…) Many police departments tend to prefer unsupervised tech, an attitude that is increasingly resulting in policy being set by lawsuit. Abuse first, settle later, and lastly, institute guidelines. It’s a hell of a way to “enforce law,” when everyone’s being policed but the police.
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20140513/07404127218/another-bogus-hit-license-plate-reader-results-another-citizen-surrounded-cops-with-guns-out.shtml
Joyce:
The practical answer is to find out how the “police state bureaucracy” will try to contain you and react accordingly.
Generally personal cars are attached to your driver’s license record. I have a relative who is wheelchair bound (1st Iraq War ’90) and owns a wheelchair van. The plate is linked to his original drivers license which expired in the early 90’s. That van is always getting pulled over because of those plate readers flagging it as expired driver’s license.
Solution. Next vehicle will be registered to an off-the-shelve corporation. A bit expensive and annoying, but it prevents issues. For surety, add in some visible vehicle cameras, and some invisible cameras to catch those that my “manipulate” the visible cameras, and voila!. You found a way to stymie “police state bureaucracy” and protect yourself at same time.
Also, you failed to address my argument that billionaires prevent competition by not allowing people to fairly compete with them. Thus, they hold back innovation. Facebook is currently doing it, buying out their competition. That’s all these technology companies do once their founders hit billionaire status.
I’m pretty sure these silicon valley guys have no problem competing with Facebook. But the reality is, if they dangle a few billion in front of you and your buddies, it’s kinda hard not to take. The bigger issue is the the overregulation at the muncipal and state levels of any type of startup.
I can’t even bottle my own hot sauce without a gigantic set of records and a visit from every health inspector of the town I want to sell at. It’s a hobby of mine. But the reality is, it just isn’t worth the hassle. I just give them away as Christmas gifts now. Most of the local food product guys I know who make jam and hot sauce and are selling at farmers markets are technically breaking the law.
Ben – go on Alibaba and sell it by the case. Perhaps somebody on the planet will take a liking to it and order it by the shipping container load.
http://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=hot+sauce
Grim – you too! Go sell your Crunk Juice on Alibaba. You never know what could happen some South Koreans might take a liking to it and all you will have is more money and more problems.
http://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=whiskey
Sell whiskey to Asians. Historically a winning play.
lol, I’d rather just set up a stand and sell at a local market. It’s a summer weekend hobby. But if I actually did, it would take days of paperwork and visits from the health inspectors. Like I said, in the end, I just give it away as gifts. People look forward to it every year.
집에있는 뉴저지 취해 보
Translation is Perfect!
I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz reply as I’m looking to create my own blog and would like to find out where u got this from. kudos
Excerpts from Elliot Rodger’s screeds are coming out. Seems he really hated wealthy people. When I read his comments, I was struck at how much they sounded like Michael, and to a slightly lesser degree, anon.
Of course, he was a twisted, little fcuk who hated everyone and everything. I just wish he had the sense to first take the one he really loathed above all others.
Nom, when do I ever spew crazy talk like this? I’m offended. I never ever say I’m jealous or want to be a billionaire. Get your facts straight. I focus on the economics of the damage of an ever growing billionaire class. Remember, another billionaire, means another legion of poor individuals to support that weAlth. Too bad you will never understand or comprehend the damage of an extreme wealth class in a capitalistic system. Keep thinking that it’s good for the economy and everyone else in it. You will never understand how stupid you guys sound when you claim billionaires are good for the economy. You really have no understanding of economics.
“I couldn’t help but feel a bitter form of envy at all of the rich kids at the concert. They grew up in lavish mansions, indulged in excessive opulence, and will never have to worry about anything in their pleasurable, hedonistic lives. I would take great pleasure in watching all of those rich families burn alive. Looking at all of them really drilled in my mind the importance of wealth.
“Wealth is one of the most important defining factors of self-worth and superiority. I hated and envied all of those kids for being born into wealth, while I had to struggle to find a way to claim wealth for myself. I had to be ruthless, and do whatever it takes to attain such wealth. After all, it was my only hope of ever being worthy of getting a girlfriend and living the life of gratification that I desire.”
Hold on Comrade. I saw one of his video. At no time did he bitch about the 1%.
If anything he bitched and made it clear that he was an entitled 1% and should have been rewarded as such by having those college blondes hotties throwing themselves at him.
The little narcissistic psychopath issues stem from not being able to get laid in a Tijuana whorehouse with a grand in $20 even with J.J’s and Charlie Sheen guidance. Likely because he was very gay and he was angry about it and could not separate it the fact that he thought he was an entitled 1% pin, when in reality he was a douchebag 1% cushion. When you are that confused, the first thing to figure out is whether you are pin or cushion (credit this statement to Two & Half Men).
41- I think this guy nailed it. He was a 1%. His mother dated George Lucas and Spielberg. Regular folk don’t associate with those people. This kid is the poster boy for showing wealth doesn’t = happiness. If you are messed up in the head, money can’t do anything for you. How else can you explain this kid not getting laid while driving a bmw in college. What a loser.
Yes, some people want to assume he was gay, narcissistic, messed up in the head, twisted little fcuk and a psychopath so they don’t have to confront America’s entitled r@pe culture, which they perpetuate by either doing nothing about it or encouraging it.
Example, Every time you vote for a politician that wants to stop abortion, like Christie and the entire Republican Party, you tell kids like Rodgers it’s okay for men to control women’s bodies and that they’re not smart enough to make their own decisions. I’m so happy straight white Christian male privilege is dying in this country. Is it bad that I’m having so much fun watching their control over America erode?
“Likely because he was very gay and he was angry about it and could not separate it the fact that he thought he was an entitled 1% pin, when in reality he was a douchebag 1% cushion.”
[40] Michael
Your contempt for the wealthy, whom you have called criminals, borders on the bilious. You haven’t threatened to kill them, but your level of contempt for them is such that we’re I wealthy and felt your views were those of the majority, I’d have a decent security system. And a second citizenship.
I don’t expect to change, or even inform, your views. I don’t even care that you feel how you do. My primary focus is threat level assessment and you are one of many barometers.
Talking about hating wealthy people…
Nom, what do you think of the influence of wealth on justice system? A poor woman caught stealing food for the third time gets some mandatory minimum sentence of multiple years. A rich guy that admits to raping his 3 yr old daughter gets some form of probation.
The “tiered” justice system seems eerily similar to what I saw growing up in India. My family wasn’t piss poor, but we were fairly low middle class. I was expected to behave within fairly rigid bounds — not just from my family but from almost everyone around [something like being a priest’s kid — everyone constantly reminding that you have a different/higher standard to live up to — turned me into a neurotic, but I am more than thankful for that].
So, the parallel I see is this:
(a) rich/upper middle class kids get taken care of by the system [usually with an army of lawyers]
(b) working class, lower middle class, and even poor kids stay out of trouble as long as there is some strong social support structure around [if many people in my township know my kids, they may be inclined to offer free advice — gets annoying but incredibly valuable sometimes]; even when they get into trouble with things like traffic tickets, they would know the cops, etc., and there is less chance of something suddenly escalating into a bigger problem. That said, they may often end up with higher fines, but the underlying message often is, “we expect better from you”.
(c) middle class, lower middle class, and poor kids with not much social support are at risk of (1) getting into trouble, and (2) getting the rough end of the justice system if things escalate quickly.
It is an unfair system for kids at one end of the spectrum. I can understand if it were like a bell curve, but it is more like stairs; the upper ones are cushioned and have nice safety gates; and the lower ones are slippery and no safety gates…
Of course, there will be a lot of outliers and counter examples… BTW, I need to brush up my stats skills — I am liking my odds of getting a full time position at the Labs working closely with some heavyweight stats guys.
Great blog here! Also your site loads up very fast! What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my website loaded up as quickly as yours lol
[45] doc
I think the public is hyper focused on the outliers such as you describe. They represent a tiny fraction of adjudicated cases. I’ve worked for judges and I know the waters they navigate, and there are policy considerations, that no one disagrees judges should consider but get beefed when they aren’t decided the way the outraged wants. But that is the role of a judge–to filter out the impulses of the mob.
We hear a lot about democracy but pure democracy, like pure capitalism, can lead to undesirable results if left unchecked. As I have oft noted, Socrates was condemned to death by popular vote, not rule of law.
[43] ottoman
“Is it bad that I’m having so much fun watching their control over America erode?”
Not if you are unconcerned about what replaces it. Nature abhors a vacuum and you might not like the new boss. Unless of course, you expect to be the new boss.
Ottoman (43):
I have found the perfect woman for you:
http://thefemministfatale.wordpress.com/
How else can you explain this kid not getting laid while driving a bmw in college. What a loser.
He obviously had no skills.
Many of these wow gold feel happy! Very nice & countless words of flattery. .
Sounds like you define capitalism the same way Mikey does.
Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
May 26, 2014 at 11:22 am
We hear a lot about democracy but pure democracy, like pure capitalism, can lead to undesirable results if left unchecked.
I’d like to hear more about your experiences. Cause I probably disagree “”” that no one disagrees judges should consider “””
Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
May 26, 2014 at 11:22 am
I’ve worked for judges and I know the waters they navigate, and there are policy considerations, that no one disagrees judges should consider but get beefed when they aren’t decided the way the outraged wants.
One would hope.
I hope that one day certain individuals don’t have as much “legitimate” power and authority that they have now.
Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
May 26, 2014 at 11:22 am
But that is the role of a judge–to filter out the impulses of the mob
Okay, fukko, did it ever occur to you that some people think the unborn child deserves rights, or that tens of millions of women oppose abortion? How does your “war against women” meme hold up in light of that?
With regard to the decline of the “straight white Christian male”, I’d love to hear about this panacea. In this country, it looks like it twill be cradle to the grave nanny state for the undisciplined masses.
Ottoman says:
May 26, 2014 at 10:31 am
Yes, some people want to assume he was gay, narcissistic, messed up in the head, twisted little fcuk and a psychopath so they don’t have to confront America’s entitled r@pe culture, which they perpetuate by either doing nothing about it or encouraging it.
Example, Every time you vote for a politician that wants to stop abortion, like Christie and the entire Republican Party, you tell kids like Rodgers it’s okay for men to control women’s bodies and that they’re not smart enough to make their own decisions. I’m so happy straight white Christian male privilege is dying in this country. Is it bad that I’m having so much fun watching their control over America erode?
“Likely because he was very gay and he was angry about it and could not separate it the fact that he thought he was an entitled 1% pin, when in reality he was a douchebag 1% cushion.”