From Time:
The Housing Market Won’t Be Undervalued Much Longer
Trulia’s latest analysis shows homes in three-fourths of major U.S. cities are still undervalued, while seven are more than 10% overvalued (most in California). Even there, prices are no where near boom frothiness.
Trulia’s Bubble Watch reveals whether home prices are overvalued or undervalued relative to their fundamental value by comparing prices today with historical prices, incomes, and rents. The more prices are overvalued relative to fundamentals, the closer we are to a housing bubble – and the bigger the risk of a future price crash.
…
Home Prices are 3% Undervalued Nationally We estimate that home prices nationally are 3% undervalued in the second quarter of 2014 (2014 Q2), which is far from bubble territory. During last decade’s housing bubble, home prices soared to a level that was 39% overvalued in 2006 Q1, then dropped to being 15% undervalued in 2011 Q4. One quarter ago (2014 Q1), prices looked 5% undervalued, and one year ago (2013 Q2) prices looked 8% undervalued. This chart shows how far current prices are from a bubble:At this pace, home prices nationally should be in line with long-term fundamentals – i.e., neither over- or undervalued – by the last quarter of 2014 or the first quarter of 2015. The good news for bubblephobes is that price gains are now slowing down while prices still look (slightly) undervalued. We’d be at greater risk of heading toward a bubble if price gains were still accelerating, but they’re not.
…
Even in the Bubbliest Markets, It’s Not 2006 All Over Again Eight of the 10 most overvalued housing markets are in California, with Orange County, Los Angeles, and Riverside-San Bernardino in the top four. However, they are not seeing the return of last decade’s bubble. These California markets are much less overvalued than they were at the height of the bubble. Orange County, today’s frothiest market, is just 17% overvalued now versus being 71% overvalued in 2006 Q1. Among the most overvalued markets today, only Austin looks more overvalued now (13%) than in 2006 Q1 (8%) – and that’s because Austin (and Texas generally) avoided the worst of last decade’s bubble and bust.
…
Three-Fourths of Markets Still Undervalued Of the 100 largest metros, home prices in 76 of them look undervalued. But the number of overvalued markets – 24 – has climbed up from 19 last quarter (2014 Q1) and just 5 last year (2013 Q2). Most of the 24 overvalued markets are overvalued just a bit, with 17 overvalued by less than 10% and 7 overvalued by more than 10%. While the number of overvalued markets is rising, there remains little reason to worry about a new, widespread bubble forming. The last two years of strong price gains have been from a relatively low level and still haven’t pushed home prices nationally above our best guess of their long-term fundamental value.
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits
Albert E
lmao!!!! Actually, I would rather take my chances shooting craps with loaded dice.
Libturd at home says:
June 25, 2014 at 10:00 pm
And Christie wins. I love our politicized courts. It’s about as fair as shooting craps with loaded dice. Baa. Baa.
Easy pay-day
“Miller said the teens, 16 and 17 years old, had appeared before a judge on Friday afternoon. They were taken to the holding cells, awaiting transport back to the youth detention center. The sheriff said deputies failed to notice the teens and left for nearly three days over the weekend.”
http://www.cbs46.com/story/25860147/two-teens-spend-weekend-locked-up-alone-at-douglas-county-courthouse?autostart=true
Q1 GDP: -2.9%
Hope and change and moving forward!
Eddie,
Outsourcing jobs is part 1.
Increased efficiency is part 2.
Robotics is part 3.
Insourcing workers is part 4.
Profits and stock market climb.
Wages stagnate.
Wealth concentrates.
Obama becomes President
Ceiling has been reached then breached
Look to Clot’s posts for the rest.
The seeds have been sown.
Former Mayor and Planning Board Member in Chesterfield Township, Burlington County is indicted for using official position to profit from innovative development deal involving Farmland Preservation. Read about it;
http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2014/06/former_chesterfield_mayor_charged_with_used_influence_to_profit_on_developer_deal.html
Don’t talk about “normalcy” in the housing market until ZIRP goes away and salaries rise from 1998 levels. Everything else is a bunch of bullsh1t.
By the way, we received a corporate wide email stating that our health insurance costs will rise 11%, effective 8/1/14 to accommodate the upcoming changes associated with the Affordable Care Act. I didn’t flinch one iota.
That’s insane. You can’t get a 5% raise, but the health care industry can sap every oz of your raise. How can your boss give a raise, when he has to pay an 11% raise to healthcare. What a joke. Bastards should be hung.
Fast Eddie says:
June 26, 2014 at 9:31 am
By the way, we received a corporate wide email stating that our health insurance costs will rise 11%, effective 8/1/14 to accommodate the upcoming changes associated with the Affordable Care Act. I didn’t flinch one iota.
Phoenix [5],
The media seems to not take this administration to task. Everything gets swept away. A trillion dollar stimulus, multiple lies and injustices, cover-ups and on and on. We lack true statesmen while the Amerikan populace slowly transforms into a bunch of self-absorbed cows lead by the buff0on in the WH.
The things you can do without get better and cheaper..
Gadgets, Toys, Tv’s, Clothes (to an extent).
Things you can’t do without or run away from get more expensive..
Health insurance, food, medicine, fuel, taxes, etc.
The OPPOSITE of the way it used to be. Luxury items used to be expensive, needs were cheaper.
Need cheap labor to profit– let it run over the porous border and use it like a dishrag, then send it back when you are done.. but what happens when they don’t go back, when they have children here… seems the plan to let them in might have not been as well thought out as planned, or was morally wrong to begin with.. These are people, not commodities, but those that abuse them don’t look at them as beings, but as appliances. Same way they look at your kids, and don’t think for a moment they won’t exploit them either.
Fast Eddie,
We haven’t had true statesmen for a very long time. It’s been getting worse and worse for decades. Anyone elected recently and in the future will preside over everything getting slowly worse.
Eddie,
Just keep looking for a fool or a desperate person. The older generation with paid off mortgages, real pensions, real social security and medicare (no voucher care) will stay in the house, bitch about taxes and suck the life out of whatever bennies they can get. Those houses won’t be on the market for a long time. As the economy gets worse and crime rates go up, the towns you want to live in will get MORE expensive as price is the method of SEGREGATION.
Want cheap- live with the dregs.
Want nice-pay the price. Or hope to get lucky, or get connected to the underworld of real estate
My older son was watching Full House on Nick last night. On comes a commercial for V@ginal gel. Really Nickelodeon?
It appears, however, that a regional office has reached a new low: Management for Region 8 in Denver, Colo., wrote an email earlier this year to all staff in the area pleading with them to stop inappropriate bathroom behavior, including defecating in the hallway.
http://www.govexec.com/federal-news/fedblog/2014/06/epa-employees-told-stop-pooping-hallway/87223/
Clot is absolutely right.
[9] michael
“Bastards should be hung.”
Which bastards are you referring to?
And I know its old school, but the word you are searching for used to be “hanged.” Otherwise you are just describing JJ. Ask him, he’ll tell you.
Hangings? Threats on the president aren’t taken lightly these days.
Tough to be COOTUS today. He just got betrayed by two of his favorite justices.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/26/justice/supreme-court-recess-appointments/index.html
Sometime today, I expect some angry calls will be made from an East Wing phone to a couple of ugly women in black.
S&P 500 to hit 2,000 for first time by end of 2014: Reuters poll
REUTERS — 27 MINUTES AGO
By Angela Moon
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street’s Standard & Poor’s 500 index will hit 2,000 for the first time before the end of 2014, having already set a series of record highs this year on optimism that interest rates will remain low, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The median forecast of 41 strategists polled in the past week would represent an 8 percent rise in the benchmark index from the end of 2013.
Last week, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said interest rates could be “well below longer-run normal values at the end of 2016.” Some of the largest U.S. money managers interpreted that as a green light to further stock-market gains despite the S&P 500’s climb of 6 percent this year on top of a 30 percent jump in 2013.
“There’s a basic floor that’s been set by the Fed, and I expect another leg up as money goes out of bonds and into equities,” said Mark Grant, managing director at Southwest Securities in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He expects the S&P 500 to be at 2,100 by year-end.
If the index rises to 2,000 as anticipated, equities offer a more attractive return than other assets. An average S&P 500 dividend yield is around 2 percent, compared with 2.62 percent from a 10-year Treasury note.
Even if the market closed the year at current levels, it would still mark the best three-year run for U.S. stocks since the 1997-1999 period.
“The Fed’s continued easy money is the No. 1 impact on stocks, bar none, and it will be reflected in higher stock prices, especially for financials, which have yet to fully recover from 2008,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive officer of Sarhan Capital in New York.
The S&P financial sector index is up almost 5 percent so far this year.
“The Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and semiconductors are all below their lifetime highs, and money is looking to rotate into areas that still look undervalued, as these do,” Sarhan said.
BETTER NUMBERS
While the U.S. economy suffered in a weak first quarter, contracting at an annual rate of 2.9 percent, economists say the effects of an unusually bad winter will fade.
Expectations for U.S. corporate profit growth have also improved. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to increase by 9.1 percent this year, up from an April 1 forecast of 8.7 percent growth, according to Thomson Reuters data.
By mid-2015, the S&P 500 is expected to rise to 2,053, up around 5 percent from current levels, the poll showed. The Dow Jones industrial average is expected to be at 17,275 by the end of 2014 and 18,000 by mid-2015, up from 16,868 currently.
If you need V@ginal gel it really is a FULL HOUSE
14.Libturd in the City says:
June 26, 2014 at 10:14 am
My older son was watching Full House on Nick last night. On comes a commercial for V@ginal gel. Really Nickelodeon?
Great posts!! You are one sly fox.
phoenix says:
June 26, 2014 at 10:01 am
The things you can do without get better and cheaper..
Gadgets, Toys, Tv’s, Clothes (to an extent).
Things you can’t do without or run away from get more expensive..
Health insurance, food, medicine, fuel, taxes, etc.
The OPPOSITE of the way it used to be. Luxury items used to be expensive, needs were cheaper.
Need cheap labor to profit– let it run over the porous border and use it like a dishrag, then send it back when you are done.. but what happens when they don’t go back, when they have children here… seems the plan to let them in might have not been as well thought out as planned, or was morally wrong to begin with.. These are people, not commodities, but those that abuse them don’t look at them as beings, but as appliances. Same way they look at your kids, and don’t think for a moment they won’t exploit them either.
To paraphrase Cramer, there is always a market for something.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101787531
The fact that you could even place the bet tells you about his rep.
Well said!! We are no different than Brazil. Sad that America has been heading in this direction, towards a nation of rich or poor, with most of the population being poor.
I keep trying to tell fast eddie that the places he is looking in are not going down. They are top of the food chain. If he wants the real estate that is getting hammered, you need to go to the places where people are hurting, and that is in places like paterson. Fast eddie thinks this is not a normal market. Normal? You want a real estate market based on a strong middle class. That real estate market is gone. Gone with the wind, just like the middle class. Now the market has adjusted to the new classes in our population. Just compare 2006 prices to 2014 prices. Every wealthy town is above 2006 prices. Every other town in north jersey is way below 2006 prices. The writing is on the wall. Welcome to the new america, where you either have it or you don’t. If you don’t, good luck finding an opportunity to get it.
phoenix says:
June 26, 2014 at 10:07 am
Eddie,
Just keep looking for a fool or a desperate person. The older generation with paid off mortgages, real pensions, real social security and medicare (no voucher care) will stay in the house, bitch about taxes and suck the life out of whatever bennies they can get. Those houses won’t be on the market for a long time. As the economy gets worse and crime rates go up, the towns you want to live in will get MORE expensive as price is the method of SEGREGATION.
Want cheap- live with the dregs.
Want nice-pay the price. Or hope to get lucky, or get connected to the underworld of real estate
You are an idiot…..pure impact of the ACA and normal healthcare cost increases…nothing else…..you should blame Pelosi, Reid and Obama before anything else….then blame failure to implement tort reform…..then blame life science and biotechnology companies for creating innovative solutions for extending life for those with previously terminal or mortal conditions….
ACA is a zero sum game…..
Michael says:
June 26, 2014 at 9:44 am
That’s insane. You can’t get a 5% raise, but the health care industry can sap every oz of your raise. How can your boss give a raise, when he has to pay an 11% raise to healthcare. What a joke. Bastards should be hung.
Fast Eddie says:
June 26, 2014 at 9:31 am
By the way, we received a corporate wide email stating that our health insurance costs will rise 11%, effective 8/1/14 to accommodate the upcoming changes associated with the Affordable Care Act. I didn’t flinch one iota.
Healthcare industry not to blame? Their lobbyists worked hard to make sure that the aca did absolutely nothing it was supposed to do.
I’m the idiot? It’s okay for surgery in the u.s. to cost 108,000 dollars, meanwhile this same exact surgery is 800 dollars in germany. It’s wrong in every way possible. How is this any different than stealing? Please explain.
chicagofinance says:
June 26, 2014 at 12:11 pm
You are an idiot…..pure impact of the ACA and normal healthcare cost increases…nothing else…..you should blame Pelosi, Reid and Obama before anything else….then blame failure to implement tort reform…..then blame life science and biotechnology companies for creating innovative solutions for extending life for those with previously terminal or mortal conditions….
ACA is a zero sum game…..
Wow.
How much more dirt needs to come out before Obama throws her under the bus?
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2014/06/25/chuck-grassley-lois-lerner-irs-audit/11371527/
And for those of you who are not tax wonks and can understand the implications (that leaves out anon), here is Lerner suggesting an audit merely because a Senator received an invitation that he MAY have to report IN THE FUTURE as income (there is a de minimis exception but not clear if it would apply).
As audit bait goes, it is extremely thin, real ticky-tack sort of stuff. And here is a department head of a division THAT IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR AUDITS, trying to refer it for one.
There are those who would say “so what?” or big deal, nothing happened anyway. That isn’t the point.
But then, if a majority of readers have to wonder what the point is, then Clot is right on target. We are all well and truly fuct.
[27] redux
“There are those who would say “so what?” or big deal, nothing happened anyway. ”
Amazingly, they are out there on social media. Some even are suggesting that Lerner was merely doing her job to investigate an illegal act. Yes, they said that.
I would hate to think that any are lawyers (how low is the profession then?) but they are the sort of people I want as opposing counsel. Don’t know shiite and succeed only at pissing off those who do.
Nom,
It’s absolutely astonishing. This whole administration is running wild doing whatever the he11 they please and the media concentrates on f.ucking trivia like the names of sports teams. Ed Klein, author of “Blood Feud: The Clintons vs. the Obamas,” was on the radio and this morning and said Obama ordered Hillary, in a phone call on the night of the Benghazi attack to specify that it was a video and not a terr0rist attack. Where are the Woodward and Bernsteins of the world today!
You seemed to answer your own question here….good work.
Michael says:
June 26, 2014 at 12:23 pm
I’m the idiot? It’s okay for surgery in the u.s. to cost 108,000 dollars, meanwhile this same exact surgery is 800 dollars in germany. It’s wrong in every way possible. How is this any different than stealing? Please explain.
[29] eddie,
Upon further reflection, I have to give Lerner TBOTD on two things:
First, we don’t know who she was talking about examining. It could have been the group.
Second, an inference of possible illegality is not the same as an accusation. It is not unsual for someone to ask “Is this illegal?” only to be told it isn’t.
That said:
Someone in her position should have known whether it was legal for a nonprofit group to offer to pay for travel expenses for a speaker’s wife. Moreover the response from her co-worker suggested it was Grassley who was the target. Finally, the idea that a nonprofit would be audited because it offered to pay an expense that was arguably outside of mission (again, there is leeway to do this legally) strikes me as extremely heavy-handed. Would love to know what the nonprofit was.
Actually I read something over the weekend about Slick Willy and the Obamunist going at it over dinner during the 2012 campaign……there was some comment relating to the fact that O-man views the Clintons as “so 20th century”……and justifies his irreverence with the idea that he has done such a great job in office…..I am stunned….
Fast Eddie says:
June 26, 2014 at 1:08 pm
Ed Klein, author of “Blood Feud: The Clintons vs. the Obamas,” was on the radio and this morning and said Obama ordered Hillary, in a phone call on the night of the Benghazi attack to specify that it was a video and not a terr0rist attack. Where are the Woodward and Bernsteins of the world today!
[29] eddie
“Where are the Woodward and Bernsteins of the world today!”
Sitting on their hands, waiting for a GOP presidency.
Wonder why reporters are overwhelmingly democratic? I’ve taken comstu courses, business courses, and science courses. One guess as to which is easiest.
IMHO, folks who gravitate toward harder disciplines that require more work, drive, and risk tend to be republicans, or end up that way. Folks who spent their entire college lives whining on blogs and eventually rise to whining on columns tend to go a different way.
28. how low is the profession?
NJ resident just sued employer over commute to work.
It’s a shame those people that gravitate toward republican or democrat are too stupid to realize the politicians/pundits they support and criticize are laughing at them.
Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
June 26, 2014 at 1:23 pm
IMHO, folks who gravitate toward harder disciplines that require more work, drive, and risk tend to be republicans, or end up that way. Folks who spent their entire college lives whining on blogs and eventually rise to whining on columns tend to go a different way.
Nom [17];
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0071230/quotes?item=qt0371655
[34] phoenix
“28. how low is the profession?
NJ resident just sued employer over commute to work.”
Blame the law or blame the client. Lawyer is just filling a void.
Given how the LAD and ADA are interpreted, this actually has a fair chance.
[37] redux,
And personally, I want to see that suit succeed. It’s in my interest for NJ to make itself inhospitable to business.
[32] eddie,
“there was some comment relating to the fact that O-man views the Clintons as “so 20th century”……and justifies his irreverence with the idea that he has done such a great job in office.”
Clinton was far better than his successors. First, he had the good sense to not fcuk up a good thing. Second, he worked with the GOP and was even able to take credit for some of their ideas. Third, well, when he lost, he lost.
I’ve said it before and I will say it again. Many democrats who wax eloquent about him today were highly disappointed in him prior to Monica Lewinsky. I am firmly of the opinion that the House voting to impeach him was the best thing that could have ever happened to him as he was called “irrelevant” in the media and avoided by other dems prior to that.
Nom [39],
Thus, the term slick Willy. And I disagreed with just about everything politically but the guy knew how to govern. This guy occupying the WH now is nothing more than a belligerent d0uchebag.
The End Is Nigh (Shape The Narrative Edition):
WASHINGTON — The hapless Nigerian government has finally found a way to deal with the ruthless Boko Haram terror group — hire a Washington PR firm.
Although the Nigerian government has been unable to contain the group’s string of attacks or bring home 270 schoolgirls the group abducted in April, it just inked a $1.2 million contract with DC powerhouse PR firm Levick to boost its perception around the world, the Hill reported.
Under the terms of the contract, the firm will try to put a shine on the image of President Goodluck Jonathan’s government, who is up for re-election in February.
The firm will seek to shape “the international and local media narrative” around Nigeria’s “efforts to find and safely return the girls abducted by the terrorist organization Boko Haram,” according to the contract.
The firm will help “mobilize international support in fighting Boko Haram as part of the greater war on terror.”
Additionally, the firm will publicize “President Goodluck Jonathan Administration’s past, present and future priority to foster transparency, democracy and the rule of law throughout Nigeria.”
The Nigerian government has already gotten some high-profile publicity that spotlighted its crisis — a tweet by First Lady Michelle Obama holding a sign with the hashtag “#Bring Back Our Girls.”
Jonathan cut short a trip to Equatorial Guinea for an African summit after a bomb blast in the Nigerian capital of Abuja on Wednesday killed 21 people. Extremists kidnapped 91 more people over the weekend, the Associated Press reported.
Lanny Davis, an executive vice president at the firm, said, “For me, after talking to him, the priority for President Jonathan beyond any is finding and bringing home the girls.”
[40] Eddie,
Yes and no. He knew how to go along. Aside from the impeachment, he did not really distinguish himself as a leader when tested. How many issues did he walk back, or waffle on, or compromise away?
I despise Obama as a president but I do respect him for one thing: his willingness to try to move the country to a better place on issues. On most of them, I fundamentally disagree but I respect that he has a vision, however misguided, and is pursuing it.
I sincerely hope Bojangles is still prezident when things start really turning to shit.
So I branded you an idiot. You argued the point quite convincingly on your own behalf, and now some prima facie evidence for you……
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-06-26/obamacare-s-prognosis-grows-dimmer?cmpid=yhoo
chicagofinance says:
June 26, 2014 at 1:16 pm
You seemed to answer your own question here….good work.
Michael says:
June 26, 2014 at 12:23 pm
I’m the idiot? It’s okay for surgery in the u.s. to cost 108,000 dollars, meanwhile this same exact surgery is 800 dollars in germany. It’s wrong in every way possible. How is this any different than stealing? Please explain.
Really? I don’t think he is pursuing anything. He has yet to get his fingernails dirty doing anything but lifting freeweights, cleaning his goldballs, and knocking down a jumper. His signature legacy was delegated to Reid and Pelosi…..he may also be an effective campaigner/stump speech deliverer, but he actually does not work very hard on the trail……the idea that it can be argued he is as lazy as W is pretty stunning……
Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
June 26, 2014 at 6:25 pm
I despise Obama as a president but I do respect him for one thing: his willingness to try to move the country to a better place on issues. On most of them, I fundamentally disagree but I respect that he has a vision, however misguided, and is pursuing it.
goldballs = golfballs
I think the jury is still out on whether this achieves critical mass
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-06-26/puerto-rico-tax-haven-for-americas-super-rich#p1
[45] chifi
I didn’t say he was GOOD at it. As a politician, he sucks.
Bojangles is a goddam idiot, in the Chauncey Gardiner mold. We just can’t call him an idiot because he’s black, but he makes W look like Einstein.
To be fair, the people he has in Clowngress (rictus-face Pelosi and the dead Harry Reid) are completely sub-mental Wall-E types.
Faith in gubmint, the “Amerikan Way”, the flag, the Konstitution, etc…good for nothing. We’re way down the rabbit hole now, Alice.
Buy a gun and get ready to shoot politicians and their goon squad police. All other actions will fail.
Lib’s been calling this one for month’s. Caesars giving WARN Act notice to 2500 employees at Showboat tomorrow.
http://newjersey.news12.com/news/union-showboat-casino-hotel-warns-of-possible-closure-1.8584369
Grim 52 in mod…not sure why. Atlantic City WARN Act notices coming tomorrow.
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