Price growth being driven by mix shift?

From HousingWire:

Home-price growth in August slows in 18 of 20 largest housing markets

Home-price growth is slowing even as the sales of homes under $200,000 slip and the share of home sales above the $500,000 price point grow, according to the August home report from RealtyTrac.

Residential properties, including single-family homes, condominiums and townhomes, sold at an estimated annual pace of 4,508,559 in August, down one-half% from the previous month and down 16% from a year ago — the fourth consecutive month where annualized sales volume has decreased on a year-over-year basis.

The median price of U.S. residential properties sold in August — including both distressed and non-distressed sales — was $195,000, up 3% from the previous month, and up 15% from a year ago to the highest level since August 2008, a six-year high.

“Higher-end properties are taking up a bigger share of a smaller home sales pie, boosting the median home price nationwide higher even as home price appreciation slows to single digits in many of last year’s red-hot local housing markets,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “On the other hand, markets where large institutional investors and other buyers have not picked clean lower-priced inventory are continuing to see strong, double-digit increases in median home prices.”

The share of sales in the $200,000-and-below price range was down 9% from a year ago, while the share of sales in the above-$200,000 price range increased 10% from a year ago.

Among 197 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of 200,000 or more and with sufficient sales data, 124 (63%) saw lower annual home price appreciation in August 2014 compared to August 2013.

Home price appreciation slowed in 36 of the nation’s 50 largest markets (72%) and in 18 of the nation’s 20 largest markets (90%).

“We continue to see the traditional housing cycle this year with most of the price appreciation happening in the spring and early summer months,” said Chris Pollinger, senior vice president of sales at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. “Inventory in the Southern California coastal markets has become far more balanced, giving buyers a good level of choice and a moderate amount of negotiating room.”

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69 Responses to Price growth being driven by mix shift?

  1. Anon E. Moose says:

    Good Morning!

  2. Anon E. Moose says:

    Michael;

    How does this fit with your recovery cheerleading?

    More than five years after the official end of the recession, the Public Religion Research Institute finds, only 21% of Americans believe the recession has ended.

    Two recent reports help explain the disconnect between the official jobs numbers and the economic experience of most Americans. Every fall, the U.S. Commerce Department issues a detailed analysis of trends in income, poverty and health insurance. Although economists have some technical quibbles with the Commerce data, the broad trends are unmistakable.

    This year’s report found that median household income was $51,939 in 2013, 8% lower than in 2007, the last year before the recession. Households in the middle of the income distribution earned about $4,500 less last year than they had six years earlier. No wonder 56% of Americans told the Pew Research Center that their incomes were falling behind the cost of living.

    The Federal Reserve’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances confirms these findings. Between 2010 and 2013, the Fed reports, median family income fell by 5%, even though average family income rose by 4%. This is, note the authors, “consistent with increasing income concentration during this period.” Only families in the top 10%, with annual incomes averaging nearly $400,000, saw gains during these three years.

    http://online.wsj.com/articles/william-a-galston-the-recovery-that-left-out-almost-everybody-1411511226

    And please don’t use this as a springboard to start in about “income inequality”. The USSR solved income inequality by taking it away from everyone. The point here is that the so-called recovery isn’t. The US just recently climbed back to the same number of jobs that we had pre-recession. Good news until you realize we added another 1.5 million working-age population since then.

  3. Fabius Maximus says:

    #2 Moose

    Before I even start looking at the “Public Religion Research Institute ” and their basis as a strong reliable economic research resource , do you want to reconsider that post or are we ok to just go with it??

    When I think CBO, the “PRRI,” just doesn’t spring to mind as a counterpoint?

  4. Fabius Maximus says:

    Just back from two week of trying to decide which is better. Space Mountain or Expidition Evererst?

    Answers on a postcard!

  5. Fabius Maximus says:

    So in all the discussions I have had in here on Gun Control its been hard to effectively explain my position. But this video might help. you don’t always need to have a gun to defend yourself against one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaIP8ZGaWlc

    I don’t have a problem with guns and I love hunting. Everyone should know where their food comes from and be able to bring it to the table?
    I had a discussion with someone on pulling the trigger on food verses a person. It turns out I can pull the trigger on Bambi without thought, but not a person threating me. On the other side, he could pull the trigger on a mugger , but not Bambi!

    Strange world!

    Lets Roll!

  6. anon (the good one) says:

    “We’re really optimistic and there are a few reasons for that,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman and U.S. retail and distribution leader at Deloitte. “There are some good economic fundamentals in place this year that weren’t as strong last year.”

    @CNBC: No coal here: Holiday forecast calls for 4% growth.

  7. gluteus (4)-

    Either of them. Please return and stay there forever.

    “Just back from two week of trying to decide which is better. Space Mountain or Expidition Evererst?”

  8. Outta here. The prospect of an all-day gluteus/anon circle jerk has driven me to try and get some work done.

  9. anon (the good one) says:

    jj, i see your GM subprime bonds got upgraded by S&P to investment grade….what a joke

  10. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Absolutely mix shift. Suburbs are out, (nice) Cities are in. Move-up market is dead, Move-down market is just beginning.

  11. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’m very close to getting my boss from 12 years ago a job at my work. The salary is about $60K less than he was making in 2002 and he is excited to have the job. Any questions?

    This year’s report found that median household income was $51,939 in 2013, 8% lower than in 2007, the last year before the recession. Households in the middle of the income distribution earned about $4,500 less last year than they had six years earlier. No wonder 56% of Americans told the Pew Research Center that their incomes were falling behind the cost of living.

  12. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [4] fabian,

    Tough one. But I think the family concensus was in favor of Everest.

  13. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [5] fabian

    “you don’t always need to have a gun to defend yourself against one.”

    This is a true statement. You don’t always need one.

    But sometimes you do.

    Your point?

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    45 ~ 14. Gmen! Would love to hear DC sports radio this morning!

  15. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If guns had a built in safety that prevented drunk or stoned operation of same, it would probably go a long way to solving most problems.

  16. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think last night’s Yankees game was the best baseball game anyone will see for the rest of the year.

  17. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Barry Bonds case: Conviction reversal seems likely

    http://www.mercurynews.com/crime-courts/ci_26561729/barry-bonds-case-conviction-reversal-seems-likely

    SAN FRANCISCO — The government’s case against home run king Barry Bonds may turn out to be a whiff.

    During an hour of legal arguments here Thursday, the majority of an 11-judge federal appeals court panel sent strong signals that Bonds’ 2011 conviction for obstructing justice is on shaky ground.

    The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals judges appeared troubled by a host of factors, including what may have been an overbroad use of obstruction laws to snag the former San Francisco Giant for giving evasive testimony to a federal grand jury more than a decade ago.

    “I find your reading of the (obstruction of justice) statute absolutely alarming,” 9th Circuit Judge William Fletcher remarked to assistant U.S. attorney Merry Jean Chan at one point.

    The 9th Circuit is reconsidering Bonds’ bid to overturn his felony conviction, which stems from a jury finding that he gave evasive answers to a federal grand jury probing the BALCO steroids scandal in December 2003.

    The 9th Circuit agreed earlier this year to reconsider a ruling upholding the conviction. A majority of the 9th Circuit’s 29 full-time judges had to vote to rehear the case, a signal of some doubt within the court about the outcome.

    That doubt was evident Thursday, as the judges peppered the government with questions about how a rambling, truthful answer to a question about obtaining and using steroids could be transformed into obstruction of justice. The judges were particularly troubled by the fact that the statement used to convict Bonds was not even specifically cited in the indictment against him, just wrapped up in jury instructions in the obstruction count.

  18. Michael says:

    2- moose, the economy is improving whether you people believe it or not. Wage inflation will be here by a couple of years. Things are getting much better, but don’t listen to this idiot.

    “WASHINGTON, Sept 26 (Reuters) – The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years in the second quarter and activity was broad-based, in a bullish signal for the remainder of the year.

    The Commerce Department on Friday raised its estimate of gross domestic product to show the economy expanded at a 4.6 percent annual rate. The best performance since the fourth quarter of 2011 reflected a faster pace of business spending and sturdier export growth than previously estimated.”

  19. Toxic Crayons says:

    Fabius, I actually agree with you the trouble is, the goal of most of the gun-control people is to make the decision for you….whether you need it or not. Case in point this beauty from the Star Ledger Editorial Board last week:

    What N.J. really needs is mandatory gun buybacks: Editorial

    http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/09/nj_gun_buyback_programs.html

    “The biggest problem with this approach, though, is that it tiptoes around the one reform that could really make a difference, but that Americans would never accept: Mandatory gun buybacks. That’s what Australia did, after its own version of Newtown.”

  20. Michael says:

    As fast Eddie would say, any questions?

    anon (the good one) says:
    September 26, 2014 at 5:47 am
    “We’re really optimistic and there are a few reasons for that,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman and U.S. retail and distribution leader at Deloitte. “There are some good economic fundamentals in place this year that weren’t as strong last year.”

    @CNBC: No coal here: Holiday forecast calls for 4% growth.

  21. Ragnar says:

    Fab – Space Mountain > Everest Adventure. Because it’s a longer ride and it’s in the non-hippy Disney park. If Disney’s first park had been Animal Kingdom, there would be no Disney theme parks today. My daughter preferred Splash Mountain over both.
    They take your photo on the final plunge. My challenge was to adopt a unique bored look during the plunge, while everyone around me was screaming.

  22. yome says:

    Breaking News:Long-time PIMCO bond market manager Bill Gross is joining Janus Capital Group.

    Is he taking a hair cut?

  23. Michael says:

    The Facebook drones are on their way, and we’re not talking about bored friends who send out Candy Crush Saga invites. The company shared a few more details about its plan to use drones to provide free Wi-Fi to the two-thirds of the world’s population that lack Internet access.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102029428

  24. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [16] expat,

    I enjoyed it because I know its the last one at the Stadium this year.

    The only thing I would enjoy more is a season-ending sweep by the Sox. But I’m not greedy, I’ll settle for 2 of 3.

  25. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [19] toxic,

    I can see a mountain of legal and practical impediments to a mandatory gun buyback. Nice in theory but even supporters would have no idea how to get it to work, let alone pass legal muster.

    Now, if you trim a little fat off the Constitution, and I mean much more than the 2nd Amendment, you have a chance. But to do that requires nothing short of a full-blown revolution and for that you need . . . . wait for it . . . . guns!

  26. Anon E. Moose says:

    Michael [18];

    the economy is improving whether you people believe it or not. Wage inflation will be here by a couple of years.

    Wage Inflation ≠ Improving Economy. I really don’t know why you keep insisting inflation is the sine qua non of everyone doing better.

    Income is going down, and standard of living with it. Have you bought your own groceries lately? Did you do so five years ago for comparison? That’s against the reality of declining income. What do you think happens to COL if wage inflation hits? Where does that leave J6P?

    You mull that over, I have to get back to the salt mines.

  27. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [26] redux,

    I was gonna type something about the editorial itself but I can’t stop laughing long enough to finish a paragraph. Now we know what anon has been up to between tweets.

  28. yome says:

    The NYT ran an article celebrating the recent run-up in the dollar. The headline is “buoyant dollar recovers its luster, underlines rebound in U.S. economy.” The headline could have with at least as much accuracy substituted “undermines” for “underlines.” While the piece attributes the rise in the dollar to all sorts of good things about the U.S. economy, there actually is a much simpler explanation. Interest rates are higher in the United States than elsewhere.

    Relative interest rates determine where investors choose to park their money. They are not assigning gold stars to economies for good behavior. There is some relationship between interest rates and growth, but it is the former that matters for investors, not the latter.

    The piece gets many other points wrong. For example, after the dollar has risen, investment in developing countries becomes more attractive, not less attractive. But the big point left out of this story is that the over-valued dollar is the main cause of what has become known as “secular stagnation.”

    Fans of national income accounting everywhere (i.e. anyone who knows economics) know that a trade deficit creates a gap in demand that must be filled through some other source. Currently the trade deficit is running at more than a $500 billion annual pace or around 3.0 percent of GDP. For the economy to be at its potential, this gap in demand must be fill by higher consumption, investment, housing, or government spending.

    The reason the economy is still more than $600 billion below its potential level of output is that it doesn’t have a source of demand to fill this gap. It is not easy to make any of the other components of GDP rise, with the exception of government spending, but that is ruled out for political reasons. We could do it with a stock or housing bubble, but those stories don’t have happy endings.

    So the rise in the dollar translates into slower growth and fewer jobs. Goldman Sachs estimates that the 3.0 percent rise in the dollar we have seen to date will shave 0.1 to 0.15 percentage points off GDP growth in each of the next two years (sorry, no link). That is a pretty good size hit in an economy that is only growing at a 2.0 percent annual rate.

    It also translates into lost jobs. If the economy is 0.25 percent smaller in 2016 due to the higer dollar that would imply a loss of roughly 350,000 jobs. So, does the NYT have any more good news for us today?

    CEPR

  29. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    I would love to see NJ conduct a mandatory gun buyback.

    Then I want to see Pennsylvania invade NJ and annex the Shore, along with enough causeway/buffer zone to get there. We’d sell Northern and Central NJ to NY and Salem County to Delaware.

    On second thought, let’s sell AC to NY too.

  30. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [27] Evil Toupe’

    I’ll not quibble with the idea suggested by the article but as a former attorney who worked in this field, I knew most of the lawyers who were prominent, and if she was a regulatory attorney for 13 years, she should have been prominent. Further, she was allegedly a senior attorney at one of my clients and I knew all of the top attorneys there.

    I never heard of her. Not saying that there is fluff or BS in this story. Just that they make her out to be some banking regulatory wunderkind, but before this complaint, no one seems to have heard of her.

    Another thing is that the Fed made her a senior bank examiner. Why? Bank examiners are typically NOT lawyers. Bank examination is a different skill set and you have to work your way up through the ranks. Nothing in her background suggests she knew enough about the intricacies of bank examination to be a Senior examiner. Further, that is a big step down in grade, pay and status. Finally, if she was that good a lawyer to know bank examination that well, she would/should have been hired as one, not hired as a bank examiner.

    Don’t know what transpired, and don’t care. But something about her background and explanation smells to high heaven.

  31. Libturd in Union says:

    “45 ~ 14. Gmen! Would love to hear DC sports radio this morning!”

    So much for my brilliant Cousins pickup before week 2. Palmer can’t heal up quick enough.

  32. anon (the good one) says:

    jeter should had retired last year, same w Tom Coughlin. he may be fired mid season

    @CNBCnow: Sources: Bill Gross was exhibiting increasingly erratic behavior, was going to be fired tomorrow. (via @davidfaber)

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [34] irrelevant

    Stop the presses! Irrelevant and I agree on something (trivial though it might be).

    That is the Sixth Sign. When Clot agrees with Irrelevant, beware the Apocalypse!

  34. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Some people prepare for the coming wars, or go on vacations and allow their 9 year old to shoot uzis, or go on rampages at schools, and then you have these clowns

    http://nypost.com/2014/09/22/americans-who-joined-isis-now-back-in-the-us/

  35. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    One Million Homeowners Gained Equity in Q2

    http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/09252014_core_logic_negative_equity.asp

    U.S. homeowners gained or regained more than $1 trillion in equity over the year that ended on June 30, 2014. According to Core-Logic’s 2nd quarter 2014 analysis, 44 million homes in the country now have positive equity, a gain of 950,000 homes during the quarter.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    jeter should had retired last year, same w Tom Coughlin. he may be fired mid season.

    I guess you’re not familiar with the philosophy of the Giant’s organization.

  37. Libturd in Union says:

    From the latest Montclair conference meeting:

    Deer Problems

    Later in the meeting, Fourth Ward Councilor Renée Baskerville brought another animal-related issue — deer carc@sses. Dr. Baskerville said that deer carc@ss removal was troublesome, given the that the service in charge of the task does not operate on weekends, leaving some dead deer allowed to remain in neighborhoods where they are killed. She cited a deer killed on Willowdale Avenue near Canterbury Park that could have traumatized children who saw it. Dashield suggested that the town could be more aggressive in tarping deer carc@sses before they are removed, and Councilor-at-Large Rich M said he wanted to find out what a seven-day deer removal service would cost. Dr. Baskerville said that any costs to remove deer carc@sses from private properties should not be borne by the property owners, as increased development is responsible for deer permeating urban areas in the first place.

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    She cited a deer killed on Willowdale Avenue near Canterbury Park that could have traumatized children who saw it.

    I have so many comebacks for this one, I don’t know where to begin. Have at it, folks.

  39. Libturd in Union says:

    The council member who made that comment was the only council member ever reelected in decades.

  40. Moose (18)-

    Shitforbrains fails to take into account that inflation in anything is the ultimate swindle in which “first movers” and those with first access to the item in question are the only ones who benefit.

  41. In Peoples Republik of Ithaca today. I could live here if people bathed.

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [32] redux

    For shiites and giggles, I googled Ms. Segarra. I have it pretty much figured out. But its un-PC to discuss. So lets leave it with the opinion that my nose was onto something.

    Fact that the only attorney she could find to take her case was a solo practitioner from East Buttfcuk, PA who happened to be admitted in NY doesn’t help her credibility here.

    It’s a shame about the messenger; she may well have been onto something but we’ll never know.

  43. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    Here’s a little sumpin, sumpin for the lefties regarding inversions. Blame can be laid at the feet of my favorite villain.

    http://online.wsj.com/articles/how-tax-inversions-became-the-hottest-trend-in-m-a-1407240175

    FWIW, the tax partner prominently named in the article is actually a pretty decent guy and has testified on how to deal with this stuff. But he is paid to perform so perform he does.

  44. Juice Box says:

    re # 44- A cautionary tale

    “no one wants to hire someone who sued his last employer”

    http://abovethelaw.com/2014/09/the-cautionary-tale-of-a-contract-attorneys-biglaw-lawsuit/#more-342992

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [46] juice,

    Funny. I saw that but didn’t read it. And he is clearly being blackballed because there is a ton of contract work in DC right now.

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    Latest data on the public pension bubble (or impending implosion, depending on your metaphor).

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102036184

    What I find remarkable is that this issue knows no party. Wisconsin is the best performer, followed by Washington State. There are deeply red states in the red but deeply blue states there too. Further, there is no seeming correlation to tax policy, which I find remarkable.

  47. Juice Box says:

    We have had a few people sue us over the years. I have been to plenty of depositions unfortunately.

    One former employee went down the discrimination route. As his attorney was questioning me at the deposition, I would only answer YES or NO. It may have perturbed him a bit so he started cracking jokes to try and loosen my mood. Did not work of course. When our attorney questioned me I went into great expansive detail on one incident that showed just how batshit crazy the plantiff was. His attorney then knew then there would be no easy settlement, but to his credit had quite a poker face he didn’t even blink or smirk. I could never be a lawyer.

  48. All Hype says:

    Juice (50):

    I was just going to post that. Scary and sickening. Maybe O’Zero should take notice that terrorism has now invaded his own country.

  49. NJGator says:

    Lib 39 – You forgot to mention the Princeton is hiring away Montclair’s current train wreck of a Town Manager. Best of luck to you, Princeton. You’ll need it.

  50. All Hype says:

    Gator:

    Montclair’s loss is now Princeton’s loss.

  51. Libturd in Union says:

    I’m excited to see who Montclair hires next for the job. So far, the two town managers who have served since the turn of the century have aligned themselves as protectors of the public workers rather than as their motivators or even supervisors. Will be interesting to see who our super pro developer mayor chooses this time. For those not following along at home, the western end of Bloomfield Avenue is becoming our little city within the city. 9-floor hotels and 7-floor leaky condos on top of low quality overpriced retail with an overall reduction in parking is what is supposed to save Montclair from its debt load. Meanwhile, tons of retail along the ave remains vacant, mainly due to the lack of affordable parking. But the progressives believe everyone should walk everywhere. Even when grocery shopping in a blizzard.

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [50] juice,

    Good thing you are keeping us informed. I would have grown old and cold waiting for anon or fabian to post it–there wasn’t a gun involved.

  53. 1987 Condo says:

    #54..the rest of Essex County appreciates Montclair’s contribution to the tax rolls!

  54. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [55] redux,

    Ah, here’s why you won’t hear a tweet from the twits:

    “His onslaught was finally ended when Oklahoma County reserve deputy and former Vaughn Foods CEO Mark Vaughan shot Nolen in mid-attack.”

    Can’t be supporting the opposing narrative now, can we?

  55. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think the only reason that Jeter retired this year is because he doesn’t want to be around when the A-Rod circus comes back to town.

  56. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [58] expat,

    Fair point.

  57. Toxic (66)-

    That never happens to jj…

  58. Who needs guns? Obviously, the new weapon du jour is a sharp knife, paired to some rudimentary butchering skills.

  59. PRM should be renamed Suckerville.

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