From HousingWire:
QE3 ends, how long until interest rates rise?
The market expected the announcement of the end of quantitative easing Wednesday, putting an end to a more than two-year-old asset purchase program.
“Slightly less expected, however, is that despite the recent market volatility, the statement issued after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting was, if anything, more hawkish,” Capital Economics said in response to the announcement.
The new report left out two key details according to Capital Economics:
The statement also dropped the previous assessment that “there remains significant underutilization of labor resources.” The dropping of “significant” could be, well… significant.
There was no mention of the recent market volatility in the statement, or anything about slower economic growth in the euro-zone or China.Unexpectedly, the Fed still thinks it will be a “considerable time” before it begins to raise interest rates. Indeed, the Zero Interest Rate Policy remains in full force, as it has been since inception at the end of 2008.
“We didn’t expect that language to be dropped at this meeting given there is no scheduled press conference, but we wouldn’t be surprised if it is changed at the upcoming December meeting,” Capital Economics said. “Overall, we still believe that the Fed will begin to raise rates sooner than generally expected, with a March 2015 hike the most likely outcome.”
@chrislhayes:
Slightly odd to see conservatives rush to defend the ultimate Big Government policy of mandatory quarantine.
If only your parents were quarantined . . .
BTW, no love for my call out over a shooting in Texas, last thread? Personally, I’m calling crickets on that one; these are the shootings you conveniently ignore.
[2] redux,
Or is it that Chris Hayes won’t tweet about it so it never happened?
Higher rates across the board would be nice; more price pressure on housing and diversification into fixed assets.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/rehearsing-for-death-a-pre-k-teacher-on-the-trouble-with-lockdown-drills/2014/10/28/4ab456ea-5eb2-11e4-9f3a-7e28799e0549_story.html
No it isn’t. Someone carrying an infectious disease with no cure and no vaccine with a more than 50% fatality rate is seen as a threat to innocent life. Kaci Wilcox willingly made the choice to expose herself to the disease. Admirable and selfless, but with that choice comes sacrifice.
anon (the good one) says:
October 30, 2014 at 7:25 am
@chrislhayes:
Slightly odd to see conservatives rush to defend the ultimate Big Government policy of mandatory quarantine.
#6,
Its not odd but not for those reasons. Its a policy that was hastily implemented by the govt based on paranoia and ignorance of the american public. Something this board would generally rail against but many seem to be wetting the bed about getting The Ebola. Lets ignore the advice of any and all with expertise in epidemiology and infectious disease and rely on polling.
[6] toxic,
Democrats, particularly on sites that the fabian/anon/otto cabal like to frequent, are championing Hickox and excoriating governors (only republican ones, natch) who want to impose quarantines. Democratic governors and the DoD, who implemented a quarantine on troops returning from West Africa, get a pass.
IMHO, this is remarkably tone-deaf and will blow back in their faces. It could even account for some swing in the polls in less than a week.
[7] pete,
Question is not whether it was hasty, but whether it was correct. I’m no epidemiologist but I think that there is a contagion risk and is it unreasonable for the government to take action to control it when the action will not disrupt society at large, while inaction potentially may?
The left is correct to point out that collectivist actions, like quarantines of certain individuals, isn’t in the right’s DNA. But it is in theirs so their complaints ring hollow.
And if we really want to throw stones about quarantine and internment for perceived threats, ask the folks affected by Executive Order 9066 whether they trust democrats on this issue.
The contagion risk of asymptomatic individuals is nil. Even when symptoms first appear the contagion risk is very low and a fever precedes it. I think slippery slope arguments and future govt policy overreaches looms very large here.
Quarantines are being politicized? Baa. You are all idiots.
[1],
@Snarkaroni: @chrislhayes Not odd at all. Today’s conservatives also love big government pulling the strings on women’s health and reproductive issues.
[10] pete,
All the better reason for having policies in place. Ebola isn’t a new disease and I am surprised that there wasn’t a contingency plan or policy somewhere.
Here’s something from West Africa that Clot would LOVE to see spreading here.
http://www.twcc.com/articles/2014/10/30/p/protesters-break-into-burkina-faso-parliament
[12],
“Pulling strings on health issues.”
Didn’t we just pass a massive bill a few years back that did exactly that? Or is that deniable because no one read it?
There were policies in place. They are being hastily modified based on the nyc scare.
I do shudder at the thought of a true outbreak of some sorts and how this we handle it. A true new plague. This is probably a more likely scenario preppers should be prepping for then full on societal collapse.
QE ends and real estate stagnates for years. Economy is not healthy. Rates rise and the increased monthly cost of carrying the asset has to come from somewhere and that somewhere will be the price of the asset. I believe it will be a bumpy ride for real estate. Lower priced areas will be impacted first as buyer pools shrink because there will be fewer qualified buyers.
Rates rise and the increased monthly cost of carrying the asset has to come from somewhere and that somewhere will be the price of the asset.
Any questions, Michael?
As I said last night, coming into the country (immigrating) is under Federal purview. As is the military, is that something that’s also collectivist and “not in the right’s DNA?
Btw, how’s your troll free life going these days? I swear you spend more time saying you don’t want to reply to certain people, and mentioning them in ‘code’ … etc etc. Why is it hard for you to admit to yourself that you enjoy it?
Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
October 30, 2014 at 8:36 am
The left is correct to point out that collectivist actions, like quarantines of certain individuals, isn’t in the right’s DNA. But it is in theirs so their complaints ring hollow.
[16] pete,
“This is probably a more likely scenario preppers should be prepping for then full on societal collapse.”
From what I’ve seen on the tube, they are. Aside from straight-up financial collapse, contagion seems to be the most cited predicate for societal collapse scenarios.
[19] joyce,
As with any guilty pleasure, I find it hard not to abuse close-minded, dogmatic, petty people. I admit that there is some fun to it, a guilty and gratuitous pleasure similar to that expressed by Henry Adams during the Civil War. But I also know it is not good for me personally or professionally, and that I will be better off if I ignore them.
And post 19 is as good a place to start as any.
By the way, I was listening to Bloomberg this morning and they were discussing the opportunity for many good-paying jobs with career advancement with an 8 week certification to a 2 year Associates degree. This debate on raising the minimum wage is absolute bullsh1t. The ones making noise about income inequality and all this nonsense are doing so for personal political gain. If one cannot find the motivation to elevate themselves above minimum wage status, then why should someone else shoulder the burden?
Besides, it was the one thing keeping me away from the coffee pot. Great, now that addiction will need to be fought off.
Thank you once again for proving my point and announcing to me and to all that you will be ignoring me … rather than actually ignoring me.
Like your other pronouncements about ignoring certain people, I will remember that when you specifically address me in a future post.
Were the Jews the original preppers?
Tim Cock of Apple has come out of the closet, about time.
30 year,
Lower priced areas will be impacted first as buyer pools shrink because there will be fewer qualified buyers.
What about the unqualified sellers? It’s a vast ocean!
JJ…Break out your DOW hat again.
Libturd,
How about someone in the Oblammy administration calling Netanyahu a chicken sh!t. Wasn’t this guy a commando who greased terrorists? I’d like to see the p.ussy say it to Netanyahu’s face.
[15] Nom – I thought we passed so we could read it?
Didn’t we just pass a massive bill a few years back that did exactly that? Or is that deniable because no one read it?
They are ALL bad. I haven’t forgotten that Biden claimed his chopper was shot down over Afghanistan when it had mechanical failure. Proud supporters, send in your campaign finance dollars! Last I checked, Gitmo was still in business. Perhaps Obama will simply pardon all of the terrorists?
Baa.
Lib – I heard someone on a radio interview say that Jews favor education as an asset because it is highly portable; Once you’ve been driven out of enough places you favor portable assets.
Were the Jews the original preppers?
“Once you’ve been driven out of enough places you favor portable assets.”
I wonder if the progressives would support reparations for the Jews?
Better throw some more toxin-free organic fertilizer under the Democratic money tree.
We aint going to Dow 10K again. But maybe Dow 15k tops. Companies timmed fat during recession by layoffs, refinanced long term debt while rates were low for six year, renegoiated leases with landlords during the 2008 to 2012 period and now have lower fuel costs plus are sitting on mountains of cash.
Rising rates will help their treasury situation and companies have a good 3-10 years before financing or rolling over bonds is an issue.
Libturd at home says:
October 30, 2014 at 9:41 am
JJ…Break out your DOW hat again.
The Fiddler On The Roof pulls down $117,000/year
The elementary school janitor pulls down (pun intended) $117,000 a year. It may not be the greatest job in the world, but the pay is good and the special employee benefits are truly unique.
http://nypost.com/2014/10/30/neighbors-close-their-blinds-as-doe-identifies-peeping-janitor/
Eddie [28];
this week I saw a new definition of irony: demanding anonymity from a reporter while calling a former commando “chickensh*t”.
JJ [33];
So you’re saying that blue chip companies are all ready to invest/earn/grow, just as soon as they have a reason to.
I wonder what might be keeping them in the Gulch… I mean on the sidelines?
Lib,
What time on Thursdays? I work evenings so it may be impossible for me at this time unless I do some creative scheduling.
“The elementary school janitor pulls down (pun intended) $117,000 a year. It may not be the greatest job in the world, but the pay is good and the special employee benefits are truly unique.”
And if he worked in Montclair, the cleaning of the school would be outsourced too while the janitor would collect a ton of overtime standing around waiting for a kid to puke or a pipe to burst from 3 to 6pm everyday.
Gary (28):
Netanyahu was a team leader in the Israeli special forces.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayeret_Matkal
Bs. When rates rise, it means the economy is improving. The writing is on the wall. Raising rates will mean the return of some wage inflation. It can’t be any other way. Real estate is a part of every single investors portfolio. If real estate takes a hit, the govts and economy will fall apart. Why? Because so many people and businesses have loans out on real estate. Prices going down, while the loan is fixed, means the end of our economy if we have another 20% drop.
Btw, I bet that increase in home prices will coincide with the rise in rates. Maybe not the first year, but it will in time. It might not make sense, but it will happen. They are only going to raise rates when the economy has improved. The end of qe and the rise of interest rates should tell you that I’m not that crazy for saying wage inflation will be coming. The end of qe and the rise in rates means the economy is improving. If it was not, they would not raise rates or end the qe program. Stock market didn’t crash with the end of qe, so use your logic and understand the economy is improving. Slowly, but steadily, it’s heading in the right direction.
Fast Eddie says:
October 30, 2014 at 9:21 am
Rates rise and the increased monthly cost of carrying the asset has to come from somewhere and that somewhere will be the price of the asset.
Any questions, Michael?
Phoenix, 7:30 to 9:30, though we often go until 10pm.
Lib,
By the way took a little off the table yesterday (the “dry powder”) you suggested and put it aside.
“Rates rise and the increased monthly cost of carrying the asset has to come from somewhere and that somewhere will be the price of the asset.”
Nah, the precedent has been sent. Uncle Sam will just restart all of the programs they just terminated.
41. Lib,
Going to take me some time to free up that time schedule. Feet held to the fire by the job right now. I will find a way eventually. Thanks for the invite, I really appreciate it. I hope to get there soon.
Phoenix,
The dry powder strategy is a good one when the market looks a bit lofty. The most you lose is what you would have stood to gain if the market goes up. The most you gain is not losing the money if the market drops from its near record highs. Of course, the real gains come from getting a lot more shares at a price that is much lower than they are currently today. Patience is your biggest friend. If it’s a lot money, I recommend the Ever Bank MMF 1.4% bonus rate for the first 6 months.
Nom, both Cuomo and Christie are getting the same treatment from places like dailykos. I doubt there is a dem/gop angle to it there.
This is like the Iraq war. Many politicians were hesitant to say anything against it, because there was hysteria, and there was a potential for career suicide. Anyone that tries to make a case against quarantines will get a “soft on security” label. Anyone that tries to explain things in a measured manner will sound worse than John Kerry. Couple of people I’ve spoken to were all for “ban all flights from everywhere” and “quarantine all potential exposed people” (I wonder how they’ll feel if they lose some big contracts after getting quarantined for a month just because they went to Texas).
So you do understand what I am saying. If you raise the minimum wage you will jump start the demand trend in our economy. Yes, inflation will then occur and will wash away the minimum wage gains, but the demand factor will have begun. This means that wages will rise across the board from affects of the minimum wage increase, providing the ability for the consumer to actually create demand and start an uptrend in the economic cycle. Then the companies will start to invest due to demand. Things will be great till the bubble pops, and we do it all over again. No cycle is the same, but there is always a cycle.
Anon E. Moose says:
October 30, 2014 at 10:55 am
JJ [33];
So you’re saying that blue chip companies are all ready to invest/earn/grow, just as soon as they have a reason to.
I wonder what might be keeping them in the Gulch… I mean on the sidelines?
Michael [47];
You’re going to have to explain exactly why you believe that giving some middle-upper income teens (because that’s the largest segment of minimum wage workers) a raise, while forcing their employers to fire some others to pay for it, will somehow magically resuscitate demand in the economy.
For Fast Eddie:
http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/31873-watch-trulia-stages-haunted-house-to-unsuspecting-homebuyers
I don’t care about their age. I only care about the fact that every new dollar they are given will be put right back into the economy in the form of demand.
Anon E. Moose says:
October 30, 2014 at 11:45 am
Michael [47];
You’re going to have to explain exactly why you believe that giving some middle-upper income teens (because that’s the largest segment of minimum wage workers) a raise, while forcing their employers to fire some others to pay for it, will somehow magically resuscitate demand in the economy.
50- giving tax breaks to companies will not create demand. Take those tax breaks and eliminate them. Use that money to fund the raises for the minimum wage class.
Menino < Vigoda
Seriously, what is a minimum wage worker with a couple extra bucks in their pocket going to do to jump start the economy? All it would take to wipe out their new found wealth would be a couple trips through the Hudson river toll plazas.
I’d say perhaps the biggest benefactors would be the music and video gaming segment, but I’m pretty sure most teens can download all that stuff for free these days.
Raise minimum wage —> Go long petty weed/molly dealers? Dollar menu items?
Re [51];
50- giving tax breaks to companies will not create demand. Take those tax breaks and eliminate them. Use that money to fund the raises for the minimum wage class.
So business look at the landscape now and decide there is insufficient upside for capital investment, and you want to convince them otherwise by making their upside even smaller?
A little more stick than carrot, I’d say.
Baa.
31. The Original NJ ExPat Asian Hipster says:
October 30, 2014 at 9:56 am
Lib – I heard someone on a radio interview say that Jews favor education as an asset because it is highly portable; Once you’ve been driven out of enough places you favor portable assets. Were the Jews the original preppers?
Opinion
A Millennium of Jews in Poland
Capturing a ‘desperately complicated’ history in a new museum, one that is also a warning to Europe.
By Matthew Kaminski
The translucent green building lights up the working-class neighborhood of Muranów. Its glass exterior reflects the trees from a park and shabby Communist-era apartment blocks nearby. A memorial to the 1943 Warsaw Ghetto Uprising stands outside. The architectural boldness of the Museum of the History of Polish Jews is matched by its intentions.
The opening of the museum’s core exhibition on Tuesday, coming 10 days ahead of the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, is a fitting tribute to the possibilities of freedom in Europe.
What is most remarkable is that this institution ever came to be. To utter the phrase “Polish-Jewish relations” is a provocation. Poland is the world’s largest Jewish graveyard. Before Hitler perpetrated the Holocaust mostly on its soil, for half a millennium Poland was Europe’s largest Jewish sanctuary. Four in five American Jews and nine in 14 world-wide trace their roots back to Poland. Everything else is debatable, and these debates inevitably bring out the passions and misunderstandings of the worst family quarrels.
This past is intimate, hard and long. After the war, Catholic Poles stood accused of collective racism, passively standing by to Hitler’s genocide—“every Pole sucked anti-Semitism with his mother’s milk,” as former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir put it. Poles, in their turn, were defensive about the reality of anti-Semitism in their country and clumsy or ill-informed about the other reality of centuries of coexistence with Jews. It was the Poles alone who armed the Jewish underground during the war and did more than any other nation in Europe to try to save European Jewry. Historian Marci Shore calls it all “desperately complicated.”
The Cold War made an honest conversation impossible. Its end opened the gates. Historian Jan T. Gross ’s controversial 2001 book “Neighbors,” about a 1941 massacre in Jedwabne, forced into the open the matter of Polish civilians’ violence against Jews during and after the war. Several films, including this year’s critically well-received “ Ida, ” have tried to capture the complexities of the wartime history. An annual cultural festival in Cracow revived interest in Jewish music and arts. A democratic and thriving Poland found the confidence and voice for this overdue debate.
The idea for a major museum was proposed almost two decades ago by a couple of Polish Jews in Warsaw. In a breakthrough a decade ago, the leader of Poland’s leading right-wing party, one associated with Catholic nationalism (and, to some, with anti-Semitism), backed it. The state provided the land and paid for the stunning modernist building. A couple of Polish-Jewish exiles in America and a Catholic industrialist in Poland led the fundraising drive to pay for the permanent exhibit. It was hard. American Jews were reluctant to support such a project in Poland, still viewed with suspicion.
The chief curator of the museum—and, as a consequence, of Poland’s Jewish heritage—is Barbara Kirshenblatt-Gimblett. She is a renowned ethnographer at New York University, born to Jewish parents who left Poland before the war. “It’s bad enough that we lost three million Polish Jews and another three million European Jews,” she told me the first time I met her in Warsaw, in late 2012. “That’s devastating. But we also lost the memory of their world.”
The museum seeks to reclaim a past overshadowed by the Holocaust. The core exhibit offers a varied journey across a thousand years. You begin with Jewish traders coming to Poland in the 11th century. Tolerant and liberal for its day, it was the most welcoming place in Europe.
Communism and Zionism arrive in the 19th century, along with pogroms. Some Jews assimilate, others leave. The centrality of Jews to Polish cultural and economic life is impossible to miss. Jews were a third of Poland’s urban population and a majority in cities like Białystok. As equally clear here, there’s no Jewish history without Poland.
Of the 3.5 million Jews in Poland in 1939, one-tenth survived the Holocaust. But the story doesn’t end there. You hear about Jewish Stalinists who purged Polish nationalists, and Polish Communists who forced some 13,000 Jews into exile in 1968. The Polish leader Władysław Gomułka who railed against this Jewish “fifth column”—a video of his speech plays in a loop—as it happens was married into a Hasidic Jewish family.
The exhibit will be criticized for devoting too little space to this or too much to that. It’s worthy of this debate. But one point is unarguable: The museum shows how Jews once thrived here and how fragile that existence turned out to be. It is an implicit warning about the danger of the anti-Semitism re-emerging elsewhere in Europe.
Polish-Jewish relations haven’t been as good since well before the war. This is one fruit of the emerging clarity about their shared past. A Jewish revival in Poland may always be limited, but there’s now a clear strain of philo-Semitism in this country. In Israel, Jews with Polish heritage are lining up to claim Polish citizenship, which now usefully confers a European Union passport. No one could have imagined any of this 25 years ago.
Mr. Kaminski is a member of the Journal’s editorial board.
clotluva,
Don’t forget the stimulus of Hot Pocket and Taco Bell sales.
Pay Taco Bell workers more, they buy more Taco Bell burritos, as well as childcare, advanced degrees, and encyclopedias, leaving the country richer.
Which is why I’m now in favor of raising the minimum wage to not $25/hr but $50 per hour. Or a minimum of $104,000 annual salary for non hourly workers, with at least 3 weeks of paid vacation.
It’s the least we can do.
#43 Lib – You may be correct. Question becomes how bad does it have to get before this happens? The future will be interesting. Bumpy ride ahead.
@civilrightsorg: A minimum wage hike could move forward next week in a handful of red states across the country: http://t.co/QaWbdRe8Z5
#RaiseTheWage
@AP:
Arkansas’ highest court rules proposal to gradually raise the state’s minimum wage can remain on November ballot: http://t.co/3xSaSDL3UW
“Real-world evidence is reassuring. In 2010, three economists looked at 1,381 counties over sixteen years, finding that minimum-wage hikes had no effect on employment. Other economists looked at every state-level minimum-wage increase over twenty-five years at times when unemployment was already high and found no evidence of an effect on job creation. Yet another group looked at the effect of state-level increases on teenagers—canaries in the coal mine of low-skilled employment—and found zero impact on their jobs.
Even this year, the thirteen states that raised their minimum wages on January 1 have experienced higher employment growth than those that didn’t. Washington, the state that has boasted the highest minimum wage for fifteen years, had a job-growth rate 0.3 percentage points above the national rate. It’s impossible to draw a clear line of causation from a higher minimum wage to job growth, but the hikes clearly did not torpedo local economies. Across the board, there’s little reason to think that a higher wage would decimate job growth and good reason to think it could give the economy—and workers—a boost.”
@thenation: The next time someone tells you minimum wage kills jobs, send them this: http://t.co/3MXj3tgH4Q http://t.co/8aCUhllLOe
Moose [35],
Indeed!
Huge opra/siac/safety crap going on right now. Watch the stock mkt right now.
ChiFi,
I’ll check out that link when I get home. :)
Okay, if they keep shipping jobs and are not providing raises, how do they expect to stay in business when you account for inflation (don’t tell me that prices will be stagnant or that they will lower prices). Money has to be moved around in order for the economy to work effectively. The money is not moving around, it’s being accumulated and set aside, waiting for signs of demand to be reinvested. How is there going to be demand, if less and less money is reaching the majority of the population. How long can the economy continue to function with all of the economic growth/profit going to 1% of the population. Please explain to me how the economy is supposed to function if almost all the growth is not reaching the masses and creating demand. How?
Anon E. Moose says:
October 30, 2014 at 11:55 am
Re [51];
50- giving tax breaks to companies will not create demand. Take those tax breaks and eliminate them. Use that money to fund the raises for the minimum wage class.
So business look at the landscape now and decide there is insufficient upside for capital investment, and you want to convince them otherwise by making their upside even smaller?
A little more stick than carrot, I’d say.
What is 2+2 … and don’t tell me 4 !!
jj [62],
Please expand. Why is the DOW up 200?
The minimum wage discussion is hilarious. The attempt to make it a serious debate is even more hilarious.
Taco Bell is a part of the economy. I don’t care if you don’t think highly of it.
Here we go with extremes again. I’m talking about a small increase for minimum wage workers to get the economy going, and you take it to extremes. You tell me why we shouldn’t raise the minimum wage to 50 per hour. I know why. It will send our economy into hyper drive creating the biggest bubble you ever saw. We are just trying to jump start the economy, not send it into hyper drive so that you deal with hyper inflation. We are just trying to give a spark to get it going, we are not trying to drive the economy with minimum wage raises, only a spark to get it going.
Ragnar says:
October 30, 2014 at 12:05 pm
clotluva,
Don’t forget the stimulus of Hot Pocket and Taco Bell sales.
Pay Taco Bell workers more, they buy more Taco Bell burritos, as well as childcare, advanced degrees, and encyclopedias, leaving the country richer.
Which is why I’m now in favor of raising the minimum wage to not $25/hr but $50 per hour. Or a minimum of $104,000 annual salary for non hourly workers, with at least 3 weeks of paid vacation.
It’s the least we can do.
who knows, various input and outputs on pricing were screwey last 30 minutes. Or could be just the bull mkt roaring on.
Fast Eddie says:
October 30, 2014 at 1:43 pm
jj [62],
Please expand. Why is the DOW up 200?
Michael [68];
Here we go with extremes again.
Its not about the number — its about the complete absence of any rational principle by which you seek to set the number. Letting supply and demand do its work is a principle – we can rail against the number like you choose to, but you can’t deny the principle. Once we ignore that principle and choose another one (such as “Gee, $15/hr feels about right…”) why not $25, $50, or $500?
Not to mention the idiocy of thinking a small increase, which doesn’t affect a large number of workers (compared to the overall economy), will “spark” anything.
Anon E. Moose says:
October 30, 2014 at 1:59 pm
Michael [68];
Here we go with extremes again.
Its not about the number — its about the complete absence of any rational principle by which you seek to set the number. Letting supply and demand do its work is a principle – we can rail against the number like you choose to, but you can’t deny the principle. Once we ignore that principle and choose another one (such as “Gee, $15/hr feels about right…”) why not $25, $50, or $500?
In my experience, any middle-aged person stuck working a minimum wage job has either chronic mental health issues or has otherwise committed multiple acts of self-sabotage.
Sure, we can try to lift these folks out of poverty. But the bottom always finds its own level.
If you think a $50 minimum wage will over- stimulate the economy, then you’re even dumber than I thought.
I’m with Joyce here. I can’t think of any time the government intervened with the natural market and did not cause more problems than they tried to solve. The list of failures is endless and I’m not about to reel them off. But can anyone give me an example of a time when it worked?
Oh…and the market rallies on.
Remember when the government got involved in college loans and a lot more kids went to college, so many that the price kept going up, but more loans helped even more kids go to college and…oh. Never mind.
I’m with Joyce here. I can’t think of any time the government intervened with the natural market and did not cause more problems than they tried to solve. The list of failures is endless and I’m not about to reel them off. But can anyone give me an example of a time when it worked?
#74 Child Labor Laws.
In my experience, any middle-aged person stuck working a minimum wage job has either chronic mental health issues or has otherwise committed multiple acts of self-sabotage.
Any questions?
The End Is Nigh (Waiting at the DMV Inspection Station Edition):
Went to Eatontown……took the ticket time stamped at 2:12PM….drove around and there were NO CARS there at all…..six people standing around……shifted my car into drive and left at 2:18PM……ON THE NEXT TO LAST DAY OF THE MONTH.
Good one Against the Grain. Can we think of any more? It’s really tough. Is it not? Too many times demand is moved up. Other times, a new market develops to get around the governments fiddling.
Looking at those recent articles I posted about liberal cities and their lack of affordability, I think this relates to it.
ChiFi…the DMV was privatized. Oh my!
Lib [74];
I can’t think of any time the government intervened with the natural market and did not cause more problems than they tried to solve. The list of failures is endless and I’m not about to reel them off. But can anyone give me an example of a time when it worked?
It depends on how you define “worked”. If the government intervention merely soaked some less-connected individuals for the benefit of a select few more-connected individuals (diffuse costs, concentrated benefits) — regardless of the claimed intention of the program, for the people involved, they might say it “worked” just fine, thank you very much.
Of course Moose. One could argue about the New Deal, but been there done that already on this blog. Some Union allowances were probably good, but the list is really so very short. And I’m pretty sure the ACA is going to really make things expensive for those who used to have decent insurance.
#79….big difference from years ago, besides privatization, No safety inspection, minimum 2 years between tests, 6 years for New cars and since everyone in NJ leases, those cars never get inspected here at least. They probably cut volume by a factor of 4 and time per inspection by a factor of 2.
Yup. All good things. If the government was still running it, they would be pushing for more thorough inspections more frequently to maintain their cushy government jobs. They would claim it was for the safety of the public and the health of the environment while thousands of cars idled in long inspection lines around the clock.
Speaking of the New Deal, I’m shocked that I hadn’t seen H.L. Mencken ‘ s obituary of FDR until yesterday:
http://theamericanmercury.org/2010/05/franklin-delano-roosevelt-an-obituary/
Inspection no longer serves any point at all, close it down.
#87..agreed….I’d inspect those trucks where I can actually see the emissions being spewed…I think you can almost breathe current tailpipe emissions from cars…
My favorite line: “He had every quality that morons esteem in their heroes.”
I expect to use it repeatedly about politicians, present and future, starting with our current president.
On inspections. When I moved from Florida, which has no inspections, in 1998, I was shocked by the frequency of required inspections, the difficulty in finding/booking public inspections, and the high cost of gas-station provided inspections. So my first inspection was in 1999 at a Short Hills gas station near my apartment. I still remember waiting and hearing the mechanics talk about the tech stocks they were day trading in their spare time on the job, and thinking of how messed up the world of investments had become.
I for one see interest rates as something that peasants worry about.
Now, hear me out….low rates? OK, it makes houses more affordable.
High rates? Oooooo scary….now the missus and I can’t afford that ranch on our salaries. Ohh noooooes. Great, so buy something smaller you douches.
When rates rose in 1999 and 2000 and again in 2004 and 2005 housing prices kept rising.
Also currently 40% of home purchases in US pay cash.
The biggest hit will be on first time buyers with low down payments and high priced homes where folks are likely to take a jumbo.
If rates really went up and high end homes fell in price folks like me step in and buy them cash or do a large down payment ATM type thing, then do a rent to own, owner financing or just plain rent my current home. High interest rates also mean better chance to pass on higher rents as couples priced out of homes have to rent.
Folks with high priced non flood zone houses in NY I think this Spring and Summer was a fine time to sell. Has a good price run up and low low rates make it an easy sell.
I can only imagine high end expensive waterfront homes this makes it an even harder sell as higher rates and higher flood insurance is a double kick in the pants.
I guess I shouldn’t laugh, but who the hell pays cash for a home. No deductions…..why?
Founder of Thumanns lived in Rutherford in a house that’s currently for sale for $699k?
Feeling like I spent way too much money on a house.
It will send our economy into hyper drive creating the biggest bubble you ever saw.
Please find one example of a minimum wage being raised to a higher level to create this so called hyper drive. Bubbles aren’t manufactured by increasing minimum wage. They are manufactured by expanding credit. If you raised the minimum wage to $50 an hour, every store would shut up shop and layoff each worker the very next day. The only person who would be working is you giving tennis lessons.
No the dems will argue that it’s unconscionable that a Big Mac should cost $49.95.
Grim,
I don’t think a CEO should be paid $9m a year while the very people that actually do the grunt work go on food stamps. If the government needs to set some standards so that working people don’t starve so be it.
@FiveThirtyEight:
Of those who could get wage increases Nov. 4:
Median age, 28.
Two-thirds are women.
A quarter are raising kids.
http://t.co/q8KAgvFltC
Folks who dont like leverage who are trying to diversify. Also folks buying distressed properties. Plus with depreciation and property taxes and insurance on paper you are showing a loss already. When you are in AMT like me you cant write off losses on Real Estate anyhow. I can only get a break up to the amount of income. I don’t show a profit on my condo on paper anyhow. My primary, owning it frees me from that that escrow nonsense with bank. When I fight to get my property tax lowered or insurance lowered it is an immediate savings. I saw so much nonsense in Sandy with folks with mortgages. Banks withhold insurance and stuff then try to foreclose. Mortgages in flood zones add another wrinkle to problem.
Also folks who have money who are not broke dicks. My realtor for instance has a Greek couple, who have same MO like to buy homes for less than 350k, that are distress sales in decent middle class towns that will rent quick , and need a little work and cash quick. But not huge projects. My realtor says she scopes out like 50-100 homes to find them one. Then she brings them in and they write a check if they like, cash on barrel head, no inspection, no nothing, but it has to be a great price. They buy 2-3 homes a year ever year last 20 years. They are doing it to unload cash piling up. A mortgage would just give them more cash to deal with My asian friend same MO he has like 40 homes. Cheap homes cash, he fix quick and flip or rent.
Essex says:
October 30, 2014 at 4:39 pm
I guess I shouldn’t laugh, but who the hell pays cash for a home. No deductions…..why?
98. we’ve been hit with the AMT for a dozen years. We’ll have some options this January and enough to pay cash, but I am still not completely sold on the idea. I’d rather pay cash for a sweet little crib in Colorado and buy/rent here….just sayin’
The appeal of not having a house payment is there, but the crap you’d buy here for ‘cash’ unless you have $500k plus is not appealing. On the other hand. If you look in CO for $200k you can get acreage and a sweet cabin.
Ding-Ding-Ding! We have a winner!
Feeling like I spent way too much money on a house.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/key-nyse-data-feed-has-outage-2014-10-30?dist=afterbell
Update on the SIP issue I was talking about earlier.
Think about this after Sandy I got my property taxes down to 2,400 a year. Since no mortgage the house is such a joke I could move and leave it empty for years if I felt like it.
Essex says:
October 30, 2014 at 5:24 pm
98. we’ve been hit with the AMT for a dozen years. We’ll have some options this January and enough to pay cash, but I am still not completely sold on the idea. I’d rather pay cash for a sweet little crib in Colorado and buy/rent here….just sayin’
The appeal of not having a house payment is there, but the crap you’d buy here for ‘cash’ unless you have $500k plus is not appealing. On the other hand. If you look in CO for $200k you can get acreage and a sweet cabin.
102. I think most people around here buy a place and really never intend to pay it off. It just seems counter intuitive. I’m in a place now that I’ve done a ton of things to and I like it and my neighbors, but I am ready for something different. I have no real illusion that I own the house.
You are not trying to lift folks out of poverty by raising the minimum wage in the current economic climate. You are trying to spark demand for products, which will cause companies to invest, which will lead to hiring, which will lead to wage inflation when the labor market tightens up. Not trying to be a dick, but why are you guys so close minded?
clotluva says:
October 30, 2014 at 2:13 pm
In my experience, any middle-aged person stuck working a minimum wage job has either chronic mental health issues or has otherwise committed multiple acts of self-sabotage.
Sure, we can try to lift these folks out of poverty. But the bottom always finds its own level.
Sorry that you are not capable of understanding the message.
Fast Eddie says:
October 30, 2014 at 1:51 pm
The minimum wage discussion is hilarious. The attempt to make it a serious debate is even more hilarious.
“I don’t think a CEO should be paid $9m a year while the very people that actually do the grunt work go on food stamps. If the government needs to set some standards so that working people don’t starve so be it.”
Will never happen. But the Dems are smarter with this one. They say they will balance the playing field, but never do. It sure keeps a lot of the 99% voting for them though.
Oh look now. My United Health Care investment hit a new lifetime high today. Their CEO made 5 million last year and exercised another 10 million in options? UNH is the biggest private supplier to Obama’s new public exchanges. Now where are these savings coming from?
Pay the Dems enough dollars and you too can benefit like those they claim to not support.
Dumb dumb sheep. Keep on believing yo. Krugman knows all.
I’ll be clear and free on my two homes in another 12 years. Trust me. I own it.
106. That sir, is a bunch of macro economic babble.
If a person who makes a really low wage of say $300 a week now can make $400 that is where the rubber meets the road.
Your statement is myopic and fairly silly coming from you.
Big corporations will always ‘give’ big bucks to the parties in power (and out of power) just to hedge their bets. Meanwhile CEO pay is off the charts. I want to see McDonald’s pay a living wage. I want to see overpaid CEO shown the exit. Sooner than later. It is all about the worker baby. Power to the people!
The supply and demand cycle is unfair to the worker in this situation. There will never be enough jobs to have a fair supply and demand cycle in the labor market. Without a minimum wage, the pressure on wages ( ESP if you took away welfare) would be a race to the bottom. Society would be worse off.
Anon E. Moose says:
October 30, 2014 at 1:59 pm
Michael [68];
Here we go with extremes again.
Its not about the number — its about the complete absence of any rational principle by which you seek to set the number. Letting supply and demand do its work is a principle – we can rail against the number like you choose to, but you can’t deny the principle. Once we ignore that principle and choose another one (such as “Gee, $15/hr feels about right…”) why not $25, $50, or $500?
107. No you don’t — miss a few tax payments and see who owns it.
I really have no to be a landlord. Even though you seem to relish it.
Just got home from work and just glanced at the a.m. comments on here about Ebola. Someone said the risks are very low to the general public. Well, let me tell you that I am a health care worker and I have to get pretty close to people. There are many health care workers in this country. I would never compromise anyone else’s health and if I was asked to quarantine myself, you bet I would even if I didn’t agree with it. This really angers me.
You raise the minimum wage to 50 dollars, the economy will explode. Do you know what kind of demand that will initially create? Of course it will be short lived as every business raises its prices to cover their new costs. Bubbles will be jumping from sector to sector as the huge money injection makes its way through the economy. By that time the inflation will be in hyper drive and out of control. 50 dollar minimum wage hike gives way too many people raises all at once.
Giving the injection to the economy through the minimum wage pathway gives you the best way of controlling and predicting its path. You are injecting the spark into the bottom of the economic pyramid. You will watch it rise through the economy eventually back to the top of the pyramid. Remember, the bottom wage earners do not have any money. They spend everything they get. The money always rises to the top. It’s the tops job to send it back down to keep the economic cycle going. Too bad they have not been giving back anything the past 30 years. It’s time to create some wage inflation.
Ben says:
October 30, 2014 at 4:41 pm
It will send our economy into hyper drive creating the biggest bubble you ever saw.
Please find one example of a minimum wage being raised to a higher level to create this so called hyper drive. Bubbles aren’t manufactured by increasing minimum wage. They are manufactured by expanding credit. If you raised the minimum wage to $50 an hour, every store would shut up shop and layoff each worker the very next day. The only person who would be working is you giving tennis lessons.
Agree.
Essex says:
October 30, 2014 at 5:07 pm
Grim,
I don’t think a CEO should be paid $9m a year while the very people that actually do the grunt work go on food stamps. If the government needs to set some standards so that working people don’t starve so be it.
112. yeah that woman sounds like a libertarian…..soon to be in prison.
@YvetteClarke:
Raising the minimum wage to $10.10 would take 1.7 million workers off public assistance.
http://t.co/V1yWjNdvfo
https://t.co/zSgKkTjZSv
#110 (Michael)
There will never be wage inflation here in the U.S. as long as there is the ability to outsource (export jobs overseas) or insource (import H1Bs ect.) labor.
*Note – Donations given from big corps. to political parties makes sure that this will
continue, until it can’t.
Stick to the Landlord business.
*Another note – If you think H1Bs are limited to low skill IT jobs you’re wrong. Over
the last two decades I’ve watched their slow creep up and into just about every
profession there is.
Luckily I won’t have to deal with it anymore in a few years. Well, except if it comes to evictions and they’re easy, where my rentals are located.
Of course nothing good lasts forever but it will be long enough for my family to prosper. Their kids…? Too far into the future to see.
So the McDonald’s CEO should make zero? And his $9 million salary distributed to all employees?
That would mean each employee would get $20. Not an hour, not a day, not a week, not a month, but an extra $20 a year.
Argue that what he makes somehow isn’t fair, but you can’t argue that his salary is meaningfully taking from his employees.
I’d argue that many companies including McDonald’s would function just fine without a CEO. GASSSSSSP!!!
http://www.theglobalist.com/just-facts-ceos-rest-us/
On average, the CEOs of large U.S. companies received $12.3 million in compensation in 2012, based on an analysis of S&P 500 companies.
2. Given that the average American worker earned $34,645 in 2012, the typical U.S. CEO earns 354 times what the average worker does.
3. Put another way, the average U.S. CEO took home about $5,894 in pay for every hour of work last year (based on 52 40-hour weeks).
4. By comparison, the average U.S. worker pocketed $16.66 an hour — while a worker at minimum wage earned $7.25.
5. A worker at the U.S. minimum wage would have to work 813 hours — or 20 weeks — to earn an hour’s worth of CEO pay.
6. Germany’s CEOs received an average compensation package of $5.9 million in 2012. That was the third-highest among OECD countries, following the United States and Switzerland, where CEOs earn 148 times the average worker pay.
7. By comparison, the average German worker was paid $40,223 last year. The country’s CEOs therefore out earn the average worker by a multiple of 147.
8. Among Europe’s other large economies, French CEOs earn 104 times the average French worker’s pay, while Spain’s CEOs out-earn the average worker in their country by a factor of 127.
9. The CEOs of the 100 largest companies in the United Kingdom earned an average of just under $3.8 million in 2012. That is 84 times the average British worker’s compensation of $44,743.
10. Britain’s CEO-to-worker wage ratio today is almost exactly the same as the one in the United States in 1990 — more than two decades ago.
11. At that time, U.S. CEOs earned “only” 85 times the average U.S. worker’s wage.
12. In 1980, U.S. CEOs out-earned the average worker by a factor of just 42. The gap peaked at a ratio of 525-to-1 in 2000.
13. The average CEO of a large Japanese company earned almost $2.4 million in total compensation in 2012.
14. That is 67 times what the average Japanese worker earns.
@NewYorkRedBulls:
“It’s do or die, it’s win or go home.”
@DaxMcCarty11
#NYvSKC #RBNY #MLSPlayoffs http://t.co/D7NVQQMpKQ
The right way to look at CEO comp is as a percentage of a company’s market value, and trying to make sure that his or her incentives are aligned with theirs. A good CEO can earn 100 million and be a bargain, a bad one paid 100k could be way overpaid. In general, Japanese CEOs suck and Japan needs higher paid executives who understand how to manage for return on invested capital.
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122. My opinion is that unless you started the company you have no business walking into a public company and raiding the coffers. Even ‘if’ you began the firm, you have the responsibility to the investors of course, but the hired gun CEO who pisses away the market cap and raids the funds…..that is just nuts. Great for the CEO bad for everyone else.
I think we are pretty close to the “until it can’t point”. Think of the 1% taking all the growth in the economy over the past 30 years as a slow march towards suicide if this continues. Yes, they can continue to profit more by continuing this vicious cycle of outsourcing and importing of cheap labor, but this will have severe consequences. They will have a consumer market that is past life support……dead. Too much of the population will be out of the labor market and the consequences will be dire. The market will have too few consumers to support itself. It will then self-implode from the angry mobs that resort to stealing to survive. You can cut and cut to increase profit, but sooner or later if this continues, there will not be enough consumers to purchase your products. You need a certain balance. You can’t have so many people with low paying jobs or no work. It’s a revolution waiting to happen.
NJT says:
October 30, 2014 at 7:03 pm
#110 (Michael)
There will never be wage inflation here in the U.S. as long as there is the ability to outsource (export jobs overseas) or insource (import H1Bs ect.) labor.
*Note – Donations given from big corps. to political parties makes sure that this will
continue, until it can’t.
125. By that time I will be safely in the mountains somewhere enjoying the show….
Essex,
I agree the CEO’s you’re referring to are overpaid. Without debating any minute details, let me ask this… do you find any fault with comparing the average CEO pay of the top 500 companies vs the average worker pay of all of them?
#5 Redux
I was in a rush this morning when I posted it. It is a poignant piece and it does raise questions. My first though is that in some ways, is that it does not solve anything . If the corridor is quiet and all doors are locked, you know where the people are. With the hardware these kids seem to have, the lock is not going to be an hindrance.
But then I think about the teachers point of view and that is a valid one. How do you keep all those kids quiet? I started thinking that maybe some company can come up with a solution. Just like Google will come up with a creative solution to solve a real life problem that will not make them any money (Anyone remember Google Scholar), is there someone else out there that could develop something?
Then I thought what about Apple, could they develop a device to keep the kids quiet during the event?
As I was pondering this I saw my news feed and though that maybe today was not the day for this discussion.
“Why does Joe hate Ralph? Because Joe retired with $672,000 in his retirement account, while Ralph left work with $906,000 — a difference of $234,000.
As can only happen in Exampleland, both Joe and Ralph had identical savings plans, but they would end up with vastly different results. The reason was entirely due to accidents of birth. Joe retired at the end of 2009, shortly after the worst bear market since the Great Depression, while Ralph, who retired at the end of 2013, had time for his investments to recover and even grow larger.”
127. I didn’t take my ‘research’ that far….
this argument is retarded on many levels. one of the many reasons Japan sucks is because is a closed, bigoted, sexist and highly hierarchical society. CEO job doesn’t go to the most qualified, it goes to the most Japanese. Sony was an exception with that welsh guy, and still look at the company. Money has nothing to do with it
Ragnar says:
October 30, 2014 at 7:56 pm
The right way to look at CEO comp is as a percentage of a company’s market value, and trying to make sure that his or her incentives are aligned with theirs. A good CEO can earn 100 million and be a bargain, a bad one paid 100k could be way overpaid. In general, Japanese CEOs suck and Japan needs higher paid executives who understand how to manage for return on invested capital.
Your use of the word “retarded” is so offensive and tone deaf that I cannot even read the rest of your response.
anon (the good one) says:
October 31, 2014 at 7:48 am
this argument is retarded on many levels. one of the many reasons Japan sucks is because is a closed, bigoted, sexist and highly hierarchical society. CEO job doesn’t go to the most qualified, it goes to the most Japanese. Sony was an exception with that welsh guy, and still look at the company. Money has nothing to do with it
Ragnar says:
October 30, 2014 at 7:56 pm
The right way to look at CEO comp is as a percentage of a company’s market value, and trying to make sure that his or her incentives are aligned with theirs. A good CEO can earn 100 million and be a bargain, a bad one paid 100k could be way overpaid. In general, Japanese CEOs suck and Japan needs higher paid executives who understand how to manage for return on invested capital.
chicagofinance says:
October 31, 2014 at 12:47 pm
Your use of the word “retarded” is so offensive and tone deaf that I cannot even read the rest of your response.
anon (the good one) says:
October 31, 2014 at 7:48 am
this argument is retarded on many levels. one of the many reasons Japan sucks is because is a closed, bigoted, sexist and highly hierarchical society. CEO job doesn’t go to the most qualified, it goes to the most Japanese. Sony was an exception with that welsh guy, and still look at the company. Money has nothing to do with it
Ragnar says:
October 30, 2014 at 7:56 pm
The right way to look at CEO comp is as a percentage of a company’s market value, and trying to make sure that his or her incentives are aligned with theirs. A good CEO can earn 100 million and be a bargain, a bad one paid 100k could be way overpaid. In general, Japanese CEOs suck and Japan needs higher paid executives who understand how to manage for return on invested capital.