U.S. November Existing Home Sales Fall 1.7% to 6.97 Mln Rate
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. sales of previously owned homes declined last month to the lowest level since March, adding to evidence the housing market is cooling.
Home sales dropped 1.7 percent to a 6.97 million annual rate from October’s 7.09 million pace, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The number of homes for sale increased to the highest level since April 1986.
Here is a link to the data:
The largest drop was seen in the Northeast with a -2.7% drop versus last month, and a -4.4% drop versus last year (seasonally adjusted of course). Evidence is starting to pile up all around us. The bubble burst is going to be undeniable in the upcoming year.
Caveat Emptor,
Grim
Grim… also.. besides the drop in sales… take a look at the inventory… in 2004, November and December, it dropped… this year, in 2005, inventory has continued to increase… that’s very important for a sea change…
Inventory at it’s highest in almost 20 years. Doesn’t sound like much of a shortage to me..
Existing home sales slow; inventory highest since ’86
grim
watch the spring. inventory is going to explode, worse in the hot areas like NV, FL and AZ than around here, but it’ll go up sizably just the same. don’t expect prices to retreat too much at first. it’ll take time for sellers still living in fantasy land expecting huge gains to recalibrate to the reality. a few will lead the prices down, then it’ll snowball until it finds a range that can sop up the excess inventory. my feeling is we won’t see sizable price drops (10%+) at the earliest this time next year, definitely come 2007-2008. the road ahead for real estate as a money maker is DOA.
“High costs of N.J. housing hitting home”
Article in today’s Home News Tribune about the impact of the high cost of housing in NJ.
http://tinyurl.com/burdz
FYI… i was watching cnbc yesterday… and was pretty surprised how they called an inversion of the yield curve not an economic indicator but a “myth”… these are the facts concerning an inverted yield curve… since 1950, the yield curve has inverted 9 times… and…
8 out of 9 times a recession has followed… the only time that a recession didn’t occur was in 1966… but in that year there was a major economic slowdown… so… you tell me… is an inverted yield curve a myth or is cnbc?
Richard: I think you will see significant price reductions by early to mid Spring, I am seeing significant price reductions now in my samll zip. I am also seeing asking prices dropping, houses that would have sold last year at this time, are now on the market for 25k to 5ok less than last year, and they are still sitting.
Anybody who bought in my town this past Spring/Summer, is already significantly under water.
I will be out come Spring bidding 20 to 25% less than asking, if I get it great, if not I walk away.
Grim If you get a chance go over to the Star Ledgers home buying forum (www,nj.com), click on forums, click on complete list, scroll down to home buying. It is getting really hot in there.
I’m not welcome there. Anything I post is deleted within minutes.
However, I would appreciate if readers here posted there on my behalf.. :)
grim
pascack, you could be right of course, but i still think there’s enough would be buyers who will see a 5-10% drop and salivate thinking they’re getting a deal, meanwhile the price was 10% over the highest booked sale. that’s what makes % moves difficult to determine. you have to look at what has sold.
Grim sorry to hear you get deleted, but this forum is not the regular county forum, this forum’s topic is home buying.
You might want to take a look, even if only to lurk, two of them in there are really going at it.
Two Things:
#1 – Imagine if the mortgage market sold off and yields went higher. This slowdown is occurring in the face of relatively stable long-term rates [albeit a dramtic decrease in ST rates]
#2 – about the inversion – I agree that this effect is “different this time”. BUT AREN’T THOSE THE MAGIC WORDS?!?!?!?!
Is a recession forthcoming?
A recession coupled with a mortgage market sell-off = XX :-P
Months supply is based on current sales rate. As the sales rate plunges, monthly supply going to skyrocket!
It’s all a scam. The manipulators will down play it and use another indicator that they can spin and twist positive.