From Money Magazine:
Can you still get rich in real estate?
“Home sales are slowing. Condo prices are slipping. Sellers can’t get their asking prices.”
“And even real estate bulls are now waving the caution flag.”
“If you’re expecting a short-term gain, “you should be looking elsewhere,” says Christopher Mayer, a Columbia University economics professor who not long ago argued that land shortages and rising populations would translate into ever-rising prices in “superstar” cities like New York and San Francisco.”
“Clearly, it’s time for a re-think, whether you’re mulling over buying, selling, refinancing or remodeling a home or investment property. Or if you’re just wondering, Is our house still worth what we think it is?”
“The short answer: It depends on where you live. If you reside in one of the past decade’s boom markets along the coasts or in the Southwest, brace yourself. Prices there were powered by two kinds of fuel: low interest rates and the willingness of buyers to pay up for the American dream.”
“That tank is almost empty.”
“Mayer thinks that, with fewer people buying but plenty still hoping to cash out, prices in the most expensive markets could drop 15 percent in the next year, if mortgage rates rise another point. The forecasters at Fiserv Lending Solutions and Moody’s Economy.com, who crunched the numbers for our 12-month nationwide forecast, aren’t so pessimistic, but they’re hardly Pollyannas.”
“Prices will flatten in most ex-boomtowns this year, and next year will be worse, says David Stiff, Fiserv’s chief economist. “A lot of markets – particularly those where prices have increased dramatically compared with income – will see drops by late 2007,” he says.”
did you leave this out on purpose?
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/12/real_estate/reguide_moneymag_whatsnext_0606/index.htm
NJ forecast to appreciate 4-5%.
Doesn’t Time-Warner publish Money? Boy things changed fast there from last years Time cover.
Appreciate 4-5%??
This is hilarious.
Already prices are lower than peak 2005 summer prices.
The floor is about to cooollapse.
papapapapapa PANIC
Booooooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
Bob
what “prices” are you looking at? Lowball figures? do your research.
Fire Fire fire….run for the exits…the floor is about to coollapse…….Remember those morons in the Poseiden movie wouldn’t climb the Christmas tree. Then when the water started to rush in PapapapapaPANICKED!
Remember it’s too LATE when the masses change course.
Oh noooo
papappapapapapanic!
Boooooooyaaaaaaa
Bob
If you have to sell you better act fast very fast and drop prices quickly to find a lemming buyer.
There are a few out there still so get aggressive with your price cuts and Get the Heck out.
Boooooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
just as i thought..you’re just a loser trying to cause panic because you got left behind.
Northern NJ – From the NJAR Quarterly Statistics.
http://www.njar.com/2005Q3.pdf
http://www.njar.com/2005Q4.pdf
2 Bedrooms or less
2005 Q3 – $286,400
2005 Q4 – $276,500
3 Bedrooms
2005 Q3 – $393,700
2005 Q4 – $381,200
4 Bedrooms or more
2005 Q3 – $597,300
2005 Q4 – $563,700
First quarter data will be released by the NJAR any day now.
Anon @ 2:56,
Post them all up if you are going to accuse me of something.
Atlantic City NJ 1.00%
Camden NJ 6.80%
Edison NJ 3.00%
Newark-Union NJ 4.70%
Ocean City NJ 2.20%
Trenton-Ewing NJ 4.10%
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton NJ 8.50%
I centainly hope we won’t have to wait to the late 2007 to see drops.
Current Sellers seem are already the bag holders no matter they realized or not.
Reasonable price, yeah, we haven’t seen for so long, seems just around the corner. I predict by the end of this year..
What do you all think?
Sorry, forgot the most important metropolitan area, they had it listed under NY..
New York-Wayne-White Plains 2.10%
“forecast” = a guess.
Actual data says, down, down, down.
Owners, don’t offend buyers with insulting asking prices, get out while you still can, or you’ll be unable to sell forever!
“Fire Fire fire….run for the exits…the floor is about to coollapse…….Remember those morons in the Poseiden movie wouldn’t climb the Christmas tree. Then when the water started to rush in PapapapapaPANICKED!”
LOL, a good visual.
prices are already 5-10% off last summer’s peak. the only reason we are still seeing YoY appreciation is because we’re comparing 1st quarter numbers. By the time 2d quarter number come out, we should be seeing YoY prices flat to slightly negative
They’ve been forecasting weather for hundreds of years and they can’t even get that right.
Grim,
I meant it to read “between 4 & 5 percent” which i felt was the average at first glance.
Unrealtor,
I understand what forecast means and believe me – I hope it’s wrong!!
I guess we just pay attention to “forecasts” that agree with our perspective then?
To whatever realtor wrote, “just as I thought..you’re just a loser trying to cause panic because you got left behind.”
Since when is shopping wisely make one a loser? I have cash in hand and can buy at anytime, because I want to get more for my money that is wrong?
You are obviously a realtor or just a stupid moron – this blog is for people with brains that refuse to believe the real estate bullshit. Please just try to stop lying – it is offensive.
Someone is a la la la loser
anon 4:08 – are you Bob?
“Remember those morons in the Poseiden movie wouldn’t climb the Christmas tree. Then when the water started to rush in PapapapapaPANICKED!”
Poseidon? You should stop wasting your money on crappy movies. You’ll need it to buy your house.
Most of the ppl reading this blog are just praying for a good deal cause they got screwed out of the boom for the last 10 years.
I mean, do people really believe there’s going to be fire sales based on housing’s track record?
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=131&genericContentID=503
Aside from a small blip in 91-93, which quickly recovered in 94, there has been no real prolonged downturns.
If this were a stock, I’d say the performance were pretty damn good.
The downturn in 1991-1993 is even less pronounced when looking at median prices (which tend to be less skewed by extreme outliers).
The biggest median price fall is from 1990 to 1991 (-$2,900 or -2.36%)
Point to a stock that has a 26 year history of consecutive increases aside from a one year 2.36% decrease — I’d say that’s pretty good. Heck, I even wish they had an ETF that tracked this median housing price.
thank you anon 4:19!!
yeah, it seems like most ppl are expecting some kind of 50% off sales this summer. if it doesn’t happen, expect the tune to be “wait til 2007”
Richie,
what about a forecast of a 20-40% decline?
Look dude, last anon.. .we are living in historic, unprecedented, times. Our currency is falling, our nation is being invaded by illegals, gold is parabolically increasing, oil too, people getting laid off, record national debt, record personal debt, more foreign flags flying on our soil than our own, our policticians have sold out thier constituents, super hurricaines, soaring inflation… get it. THE USA IS FUCKED chucky… get with the program.
United States of Assholes
you gotta love the CALAMITY in the stock market..
i want calamity.
i want a 35% pullback on stocks, housing and oil.
buy a bicycle.
anon 4:35
No matter, I believe the US will weather this. If not, the whole world is screwed. RE will be the least of our concerns.
“I guess we just pay attention to ‘forecasts’ that agree with our perspective then?”
Ignore all forecasts, look at the data.
“Most of the ppl reading this blog are just praying for a good deal cause they got screwed out of the boom for the last 10 years.”
You’re right! Houses should appreciate 100% in 4-5 years! It’s completely normal, fundamentals don’t matter at all!
you have a point there unrealtor. but my point is, let’s look at all the data – not just ones that point to where we want it to go. like the one that anon 4:19 posted.
You’re right! Houses should appreciate 100% in 4-5 years! It’s completely normal, fundamentals don’t matter at all!
yes it will come back down eventually. just like a gallon of gas will probably be 1.50 again. but life goes on..we have to fill up at 3 bucks anyway. and I know, we don’t have to buy a house..I those young couples will all have to wait to have kids until it’s ok to move out of that 2 bedroom apartment.
there will always be buyers no matter what. that’s why there won’t be a 50% decline. maybe in vegas but not here. the nj market was not fueled by investors/speculators.
“you have a point there unrealtor. but my point is, let’s look at all the data – not just ones that point to where we want it to go.”
Indeed, as Grim posted right above:
2 Bedrooms or less
2005 Q3 – $286,400
2005 Q4 – $276,500
3 Bedrooms
2005 Q3 – $393,700
2005 Q4 – $381,200
4 Bedrooms or more
2005 Q3 – $597,300
2005 Q4 – $563,700
If you have some interesting data to share, post away.
Anon @ 5:01,
If you have data that accurately describes the number of investor or speculator buyers in New Jersey, please share, because I’ve been looking long and hard for those numbers.
grim
“the nj market was not fueled by investors/speculators.”
I don’t know where you got that notion, there are specualtors all over the place in Northern NJ.
This speculator saw the market changed, and decided to abandon a planned tear-down — but he’ll give you the plans!
“come see architects preliminary drawings for a 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath colonial”
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1057139135
This flipper has been trying to sell this over-priced POS for months:
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1055026444
They were everywhere, and they were buying up all the “handy-man specials” which shut out many first time buyers.
anon5:01-
two words for you: Solomon Dwek
btw, his attorneys will be creating a web site to list his investments for the many bank/investor lawyers to search for all the possible lost millions…
I’ll be sure and share that url with you when it’s available.
Don’t think that there aren’t more Dweks out there in NJ waiting to implode.
JM
p.s.- I own a weekend house in PA (bought at tax auction), but rent in NYC because it’s makes more sense than buying.
Guys What would be the right price for this MLS # 2603814
“my point is, let’s look at all the data – not just ones that point to where we want it to go.”
I don’t think people here are afraid of data– it’s just that there isn’t very much to indicate anything other than a weakened market, and one that is getting weaker all the time.
to adress anon 4:19’s point directly (here is the link again)
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=131&genericContentID=503
1. these are nat’l house prices. there have certainly been major price declines in the past 25 yrs in local areas, particularly the most expensive ones.
2. this data only looks at the past 25 yrs, which have been the most prosperous period in the history of this country (probably the world). I do not think the 80s and 90s are particularly representative of long term economic trends. The chances of another 25 year period of largely uninterrupted growth going forward are slim.
3. these are nominal prices. in real terms, real estate has not been such a sweet investment, even during this uniquely profitable period.
Guys …. I mean this property ….
what is a fair price on this ?
360 TRENSCH DR
Twn: NEW MILFORD
Zip: 07646
RES/A
Block: 01607
Lt: 00009
Cty#: 02
CtyLoc: 400
Area#: 0238
It’s obvious the RE bulls posting here haven’t been through a down market. I bought a 3br bi-level in Middlesex county in 1998 for 180,000, which was the going rate at the time. The previous owners bought it in 1991 for 167,500. After you factor in RE commissions, RE transfer taxes and improvements (previous owner spent 15,000) they actually were in the negative by 13,300. They lost 8% on over a 7-year holding period. That doesn’t sound like such a great investment to me. Couple that with the fact I sold the same home in 2005 for 425,000 and it blows my mind as totally unrealistic. That’s why I got the hell out of the market. What goes up will come down and yes, you can lose money in real estate just as easily as making it.
Regarding the NAHB Data:
1) The median represents NEW HOME SALES, not resales. While interesting, not particularly applicable to our local market.
2) That is a national aggregate. Because of this, it’s more of a macroeconomic indicator. New Jersey data over the same time period show a much different picture.
3) Those numbers are not REAL, i.e. adjusted for inflation. The NAR and other groups love to use unadjusted numbers, they always show huge gains, very impressive to those who don’t understand inflation.
4) Those numbers don’t reflect the change in quality in housing. Compare a new home built in Idaho in 1980 with a new home built in New Jersey in 2006. Are they even remotely similar?
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
Sorry,
I mean both the median and average.
jb
They may come down, but this “crash” that people are eagerly awaiting will probably never happen.
For Anon just above, if you factor in a 5% annual increase in prices (from 1991), then the price you sold at in 2005 is about 20% overpriced (in a typical market, not in this market).
The article grim posted suggested the market was 15% overpriced. So it’s not that far off.
Some of you people are expecting like a 30-40% drop – that won’t happen. Someone commented on how we live in bad times.
We really don’t. The weak dollar is not horrible, it does some good by making our goods cheaper for export, which isn’t bad for our economy. Speaking of which, the growth rate of our economy last quarter was phenomenal. The DOW is about to reach an ALL TIME high. Personal debt is pretty high, but it’s all at low interest rates for the most part and repayment rates are apparently at an all time high (this is per an interview with the CFO of Citigroup, Krawcheck, that I read online).
As for illegals entering our country – this is not a new problem, its simply been brough to light because its an election year and, finally, we are doing something about it.
The cheap labor don’t hurt though.
Hahahaha!
We have people up to their eyeballs in I/O loans to finance a house, we have record levels of state and gov’t debt, we have Greenspin who devalued the dollar by printing dollars at a whim, we have an energy crisis and glut of SUV’s and McMansions that will cripple their ownwers as cost remain high.
Pal we have big problems.
It’s a society out of control.
And our country is reliant on foreigners buying our gov’t bonds to fund our deficits. We are heavily dependent on foreign terrorist nations to supply us with energy.
This is pearl harbor / 911 all over again. The complacency of our society is mind boggling.
How anyone can come on this board and say everything is just okay in the housing market is a greedy self serving jerk.
This is pearl harbor / 911 all over again. The complacency of our society is mind boggling.
What?
Anonymous 6:02 and 6:06 is (are) clueless.
The sad fact is that there are some people who realize they should have bought a few years ago but didn’t, because they were too busy playing the stock market and missed out, and are now crying bubble in hopes that the market will collapse and they will score a “great deal” from some poor loser who overburdened himself with an ARM or interest only loan.
Wake up!
It’s not happening.
This is not the stock market. Real estate is not that liquid. Someone who bought a high priced house likely also sold his/her house at a high price and so can afford the purchase. That’s the majority of the people we’re talking about.
A friend of mine bought a townhouse for like 260K in 2003, sold it for 430K in 2005 and bought a 700K new construction home (locked in the purchase rate 1 year prior on the new home). He put basically nothing out of his pocket for the downpayment given the sale of his home, and has a 560K mortgage which he can pay comfortably.
THAT REPRESENTS THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE.
YOU LOSERS WHO MISSED OUT DID JUST THAT – YOU MISSED OUT! STOP WHINING!
We have always been dependent on foreign nations for the majority of our oil. It will never be a problem – these nations make money by selling their oil, not holding it back. If they choose not to sell to us, it is sold elsewhere and we buy from there, no biggie. The oil market is very big, and very liquid (no pun intended), unlike the real estate market.
Do you realize real estate values have gone up everywhere, not just the US, but in all developed and rapidly developing nations. Most of those countries have been buying oil at a price nearly twice ours for years and years.
Who cares if there is a glut of SUV’s or McMansions? That is someones personal preference and has nothing to do with the RE market in general.
we know usually the listing/transaction price has been around $100K above the assessed value.
But recently I have seen listing price below assessed value, What does it mean?
Check this listing. Super motivated seller!
2254550
don’t these kind of listings drag down the comps..
These happen quite quickly. I have seen 50K drops within recent two weeks.
Check these two listings: They all well overpriced even at this point, but the “cheaper” one surely will run the older listing out of being sold any time soon.
2231973: $979K
2278883 : $929K
downward spiral!
A saying: the housing appreciation is like taking the escalator, but the downward trend of housing is an elevator. Downwards much faster!
Everyone,
Please back your statements with data. Otherwise, they are meaningless. And yes, this goes for both camps. All I’m asking for are links to sources or posted data with some sort of reference.
Arguments and discussions based on opinion and anecdotes isn’t worth anyones time.
Please take the time to do the research, if you do it will benefit everyone. Otherwise the discussion ends up deteriorating.
Tastes great.. Less filling..
grim
can someone provide the url or link for looking up mls #’s. Please.
This post has been removed by the author.
Anon 6:23PM:
Didn’t I meet you at Atlantic City a couple of months ago?
We were at the same BlackJack table.
Do you remember that hand where you bet $100 and were dealt a 10 and a 2? The dealer had a 6 face up.
You asked me what to do, and I said you should “stay”.
You said I was crazy because the dealer had a 6. You doubled down for $200, and the dealer gave you a 9.
Boy you were right on that one!
anon 4:08 – are you Bob? …NO
After today’s day on the market, I am so happy that God created Laphroaig!
cheers!
2254550 — This is in Watchung, a nice enough town. The problem is location, location, location.
That section of Watchung is only accessible via a road leading of Route 22. That is bad enough since it means that if you want to go anywhere, you have to go to route 22. Even worse, as I recollect, the road leading to route 22 is filled with a lot of poorer rental housing on it. This house may be on the very edge of that poorer area.
That explains why its cheap. Not a bad deal at all, in any other area of Watchung, it would be 100K more expensive at least
Correcting myself — 2254550 is actually in Green Brook not Watchung. I remember seeing it now around 7 months back, it was listed for around 599K then.
The house is nice enough (and now that I remember, its not just next to the poorer rental housing ). But the other location problems I mentioned do exist. The house also has a rather circular driveway, without much room to expand, and I think there may be some water problems in the basement. All the other items are fixable, but the location is not.
“After today’s day on the market, I am so happy that God created Laphroaig!”
That’s a very smoky, peaty one, right? I think I’ll thank Him for the Speysides instead.
This post has been removed by the author.
The sad fact is that there are some people who realize they should have bought a few years ago but didn’t, because they were too busy playing the stock market and missed out, and are now crying bubble in hopes that the market will collapse and they will score a “great deal” from some poor loser who overburdened himself with an ARM or interest only loan.
Wake up!
It’s not happening.
YOU LOSERS WHO MISSED OUT DID JUST THAT – YOU MISSED OUT! STOP WHINING
Anonymous:
I’m so glad that you’re here and I look forward to hearing more from you.
A word to the wise, however. Prepare yourself to attacked for these statements. Be prepared to have to address the most base vitriol from a variety of posters here. I assure you that you are now hated for making these observations.
I most certainly object to that comment, REInvestor.
As your host, I’ve been nothing but cordial and courteous to you, and every other visitor that has commented.
The forum is open to opinion, regardless of what that opinion may be.
The issues discussed here are emotionally charged. Individuals commenting on either side of the topic should be prepared to defend their position by providing the necessary data and economic theory to support it.
grim
I most certainly object to that comment, REInvestor.
As your host, I’ve been nothing but cordial and courteous to you, and every other visitor that has commented.
You certainly have been cordial and courteous to all posters Grim. I didn’t have you in mind.
Reinvestor101,
Be prepared to have to address the most base vitriol from a variety of posters here.
If that isn’t the pot calling the kettle black!
Your posts have consisted of “base vitriol” on numerous occasions and more than once I’ve stated to you that your posts would be much better received here if they were based less on emotion and more on data.
Accusing supporters of the housing bubble of being “terrorists” and siding with “Osama bin Laden” hardly qualifies one as rational.
Your posts have consisted of “base vitriol” on numerous occasions…Accusing supporters of the housing bubble of being “terrorists” and siding with “Osama bin Laden” hardly qualifies one as rational
To my recollection, I’ve never called anyone a terrorist or bin laden symphatizer directly. I’ve only suggested that those who want to see something bad occur to other americans economically may share a similar view with those elements that are arrayed against this country. I’ve tried to suggest that people curb their giddiness about the real estate markets and be more dipassionate.
In response, I’ve been called a bunch of names!
reinvestor: The only bad thing happening, was to the people that wanted to purchase a home the old fashioned and safe way, 20% down, fixed rate mtg, plus money left in the bank etc.
They were forced out of the market by the no money down I/O subprime who cares real eate only goes up crowd, and of course pushed into a frenzy by the realtor crowd. Well these morons are about to pay for their foolishness. This is a capitalist system of some sort, is it not? Any time there are extremes in a market, the markets must be cleanesed, it is a natural occurence. You call yourself reinvstor, yet it would appear that is only the case if the prices are going up.
One final thing, I think what makes some people giddy as you call it, was the sheer arrogance of so many buyers over the last few years. Now that the market is changing we are asked to be compassionate, and that SIR aint gonna happen.
Here’s the link to the Dwek case documents…
http://tinyurl.com/ly4yb
Just from a quick glance, it appears these banks are involved:
PNC, Amboy Bank, Lakeland Bank, HSBC.
Expect these (if not others) to examine lending guidelines for RE investors.
JM
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