For your reading pleasure, from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University:
The State of the Nation’s Housing 2006
The housing boom came under increasing pressure in 2005. With interest rates rising,
builders in many states responded to slower sales and larger inventories by scaling back on production. Meanwhile, the surge in energy costs hit household budgets just as higher interest rates started to crimp the spending of homeowners with adjustable mortgages.Nevertheless, the housing sector continues to benefit from solid job and household growth, recovering rental markets, and strong home price appreciation. As long as these positive forces remain in place, the current slowdown should be moderate.
Keep in mind these are major assumptions on which to base predictions. To me, this looks like a typical CYA position. Should job and household growth slow, rental markets stay flat, and price appreciation falter, the slowdown will be anything but moderate..
Some other assumptions that the JCHS makes when giving these predictions are strong in-migration, no major loss of employment, and little overbuilding.
Lastly, consider the source. The study is sponsored by some major players in the real estate industry. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Homebuilders, etc.
Unfortunately, I’m on my way to the airport, I’ll be out of the country for the next few days. I wish I could have posted something a bit more in-depth on this, but it’s 5:20 and the car will be here shortly.
Caveat Emptor!
grim
Please take the time to discuss this piece, I believe it would be a worthwhile exercise.
I’ll be checking in from time to time next week, as access permits.
jb
How to Profit From a Cooling Real Estate Market by Robert Kiyosaki
I don’t think its bad enough to leave the country! Things are looking better everyday. Maybe by the time you return we’ll have hit the 40K listings and the declining market values will finally wise up some of the people selling.
Bill
haven’t read it yet, but I disagree with some of its main points defending the “soft landing” scenario
1 basically they point to how most houses are financed which is [purposely?] specious – especially considering the data they use is national
2 they use the [tired] old growing population / immigration argument, which is also not relevant since there is a disconnect between housing stock and housing location and the socio-economic background of the theoretical buyers
surprising because Retsinas is on the ball – if you see the NAR referring to it, that’s all you need to know
BTW – grim – nice catch on the sponsors – sick!
Bernanke Tells Bankers Risk Management, Capital Are `Critical’
June 13 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told bankers that it’s “critical” to manage risks well and maintain sufficient capital for the good of the financial system and their institutions.
“Both robust risk management and strong capital positions are critical to ensure that individual banking organizations operate in a safe and sound manner that enhances the stability of the financial system,” Bernanke said yesterday in Washington to executives at a graduate school run by the American Bankers Association.
The comments are consistent with positions taken by his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, and Fed Governor Susan Bies, who is the board’s chief member for regulatory issues. Bernanke also said use of financial instruments and activities such as loan trading and credit derivatives can help banks “be more active in their management of credit risks and other portfolio risks.”
In terms of capital reserves, “strong capital helps banks absorb unexpected shocks and reduces the moral hazard associated with the federal safety net,” Bernanke said in the speech. The Fed and other U.S. bank regulators are trying to implement the international Basel II agreement to adjust capital standards.
Bernanke, 52, didn’t comment on the outlook for the U.S. economy or interest rates in his speech or the question-and- answer session that followed.
China Currency
In response to a question, Bernanke said China “would be well served by moving towards a more flexible, market-determined exchange-rate system.”
The yuan has appreciated by only about 1 percent since the country’s central bank revalued the currency last July. At that time, China severed a decade-long peg to the dollar and began managing the yuan against a basket of currencies. The comments were similar to others Bernanke has made since becoming Fed chairman Feb. 1 and echo the positions of the White House and the Group of Seven industrialized countries.
“It’s in China’s interest along with everyone else’s, to create greater balance in the world international economy,” Bernanke said, citing the U.S. current-account deficit and other “external imbalances” around the world.
In response to other questions submitted by audience members, Bernanke repeated the Fed’s concerns about so-called industrial loan corporations, or banks that are owned by commercial concerns. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, is trying to obtain a state banking charter in Utah as an ILC and recently filed an application for deposit insurance with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
“There are some issues related to the way the ILC structure is set up,” Bernanke said.
Mortgages
Bernanke also said that the Fed may issue, “not too far in the distant future,” a final version of bank guidance over use of some types of variable-rate home mortgages. In December, the Fed and other government agencies said interest-only and other nontraditional mortgages pose a threat to the financial system and urged the nation’s banks to tighten lending standards.
In a separate speech last month, Bernanke said the Basel II rules for the U.S. banking system are still a “work in progress” that require input from financial institutions and regulators to make it efficient and practical. He repeated that comment yesterday.
This post has been removed by the author.
Are the sellers who make reductions the only ones getting their homes sold? How long will it take for this to affect appraisals? When will mortgage companies have to use all the reduced-priced comparables? In the last market downturn, did buyers start to have trouble getting a mortgage because their new homes would not appraise at the purchase price?
Another quote, with a different slant, from the new Harvard study that Grim cited:
“New household projections incorporating higher but more realistic immigrant assumptions suggest household growth will accelerate to 14.6 million over the next ten years from 12.6 million over the last ten. “Strong household growth, combined with record incomes and wealth, will lift housing investments to new highs next decade,” remarks Eric Belsky, executive director of the Joint Center.”
Seems to me that this flies in the face of the Grim’s contention that we’re in for a serious crash.
Yes, I see that the Harvard Center for Housing Studies gets funding from some of the big players in real estate, but I’ve never seen anyone impugn their integrity and claim that their studies are biased before…so why now?
Anonymous,
Here’s how appraisals work. The appraiser finds three properties that are close and similar to the subject that sold within the last six months. He then uses those sales to estimate the value of the subject proeperty.
Going forward, I don’t think lenders will accept any comps over six months old due to what’s going on. Right now, there are still plenty of comps that sold in the last six months at a high prices so we can stil lexpect high appraisal values. Six months from now, however, I think it will be increasingly difficult for appraisers to find good comps that support the higher values. Their appraisal values will then have to come in lower
Google Robert Kiyosaki and Amway:
http://google.com/search?q=Robert+Kiyosaki+Amway
Enjoy the trip Grim!
“Strong household growth, combined with record incomes and wealth, will lift housing investments to new highs next decade”
Northern NJ inventory at 16 months:
Currently, there are 30,764 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site. For Residential Properties that are Multiple Listed with Garden State, 99% are available to be searched on this site.
http://www.gsmls.com
The NAR wouldn’t lie, jump in now “investors”! Real estate is heading for “new highs” even though houses are already at 10X median income.
A tiny cape on 1/8th of an acre costs $700K? No problem, “new highs” are on the way!
I simply think it’s important, at least occasionally, to step away from the world of bubble blogs, where you all agree with each other and “booyaa” yourselves into a stupor, and be open to considering other ideas. Don’t become so very entrenched and invested in your worldview that you’re unable to react and respond to changes in the landscape.
If you’re utterly inflexible in your thinking, you could end up as bad off as those folks who believe in the gospel of ever-increasing house prices.
RE: “flexible thinking”
The irrational exuberance was based on a detachment from both reality and facts.
The numbers don’t lie — these crazy home prices are simply unsustainable, as they’re too far out of line with incomes. No amount of “flexible thinking” can change that reality.
Seems to me that this flies in the face of the Grim’s contention that we’re in for a serious crash.
First, Grim’s focus is on Northern NJ, this study looks at the U.S. as a whole. I think that on a national basis we probably won’t see a “serious crash”, but probably something closer to a “correction”, as some markets are hit harder than others. Northern NJ is one of those markets where prices are seriously misaligned with the fundamentals and a serious crash is a real possibility.
Lets assume for a moment that their sources of funding had no bearing on their conclusions. It’s just another study. It’s not gospel. Their analysis isn’t any more or less valid than any other study. For example, they cite smaller household size resulting from divorce and children moving out as a driver for higher housing demand. Other studies (Princeton) have shown household size stabilizing over the past decade. While divorce might be higher, more young people are retuning home after college to live with parents. More seniors are moving in with their children.
I prefer to stand on the sidelines, watching carefully…. and not become so completely wedded to my position that prices will come down 30, 40, or 50% that I ignore what is actually happening.
I just think you should step away for a moment, and see how utterly rigid your thinking is….you’re as bad as the folks who think the sky’s the limit on housing prices.
I’m a contrarian at heart, and have never followed the herd. The fact that so many people are now issuing urgent bubble warnings makes me just a little uneasy.
What could easily be described as one of the nicest houses in Short Hills just went on the market:
MLS 2288625
32 Windermere Terrace, 07078
$1,895,000
5 BR, 4 BA
Tudor built in 1929
1.3 acres
1/4 acre pond on property
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1061516657
Was surprised to see the price, which is about half what I expected, and considering morons are buying 3BR 1960s ranches on 1/3 acre for $1.3M.
Should be interesting to see how the market reacts to this one.
an Ad ARTICLE AT
Asbury Park Press
Sunday May 28, 2006
p.G3 !!!
“Kara Homes advises active adults to purchase homes now” !!!
Why buy homes when you knew that New Jersey home prices is way overpriced according to the latest report and Housing prices is now cooling if not CRASHING !!!!
With regards to the Harvard report
They are a mouthpiece for the Real Estate industrial complex.
Check out their policy advisory board members.
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/people/pabmemberlist.html
It’s a who’s who of the real estate industry
“I’m a contrarian at heart, and have never followed the herd. The fact that so many people are now issuing urgent bubble warnings makes me just a little uneasy.”
Sounds like you’ve been reading this blog for quite a while, so you know that many people have been issuing bubble warnings for years. Many respected financial journals. Just click on some links to find them, or let me know if you need the links for any of them back to 2002.
It’s not a new warning. Why would it make you uneasy NOW?
Maybe you know that flippers lost heart right about March. The flipper herd turned.
What changed? A lot of them took a good look at their heating bills last winter, vs. the rents they were getting. A lot of them saw other flippers’ houses sitting on the market for 6 months to a year.
So they started dumping. DUMPING.
Black Thursday. But it just happened a little slower. And a lot of potential bagholders were a little more educated than in 2003-2004, so there weren’t so many dummies around to clean up the flipping mess.
Pat
So they started dumping. DUMPING.
Thats awesome, about darn time we saw a friggin correction. I need a home too you know….
— BM (Not Bob)
I’m a contrarian at heart, and have never followed the herd. The fact that so many people are now issuing urgent bubble warnings makes me just a little uneasy.
That’s because you are, in fact, tuned into what is happening, even if you are not actively watching the market. The average Joe with his head in the sand might have heard about this “bubble thing”, but is ultimately comforted by the “fact” that real estate never goes down, it just “returns to normal” or “takes a break”.
Don’t forget, most of the “bubble warnings” are from academic, financial or more intellectually oriented sources (Harpers, The Economist ect.). The average Joe who watches the Channel 2 11 o’clock news and reads the Star Ledger never really sees this stuff. They only see or hear the reassuring story that everything is okay and that their area is somehow special and exempt from the bubble.
Just performed a healthy skim of the document. On the face it is intended to be balanced, but it has certain dubious spins on information that make me question its objectivity:
1 homes consume less energy PER SQUARE FOOT in 1995 versus 2005[intended to build some case that energy prices are less of an issue that they would otherwise be]
2 new records for income and wealth in inflation adjusted terms [however they are comparing 1995 to 2005, when we were still stuggling to move out of the early 1990’s recession and 2005 included all the value of appreciated real estate]
3 analysis of rental market – conclusions? echo boomers are going to be entering their 20’s and early 30’s, so rents will be going up [don’t rent, BUY!], [buy property for investing]
4 home equity gain are the best protection against foreclosure because homeowners can sell at a profit [what???!!!] – How about NOT borrowing beyond your means is the best protection against foreclosure!
THE CLINCHER!
5 affordability problems are most acute in housing markets with strict land use regulations
Fed’s Olson says mortgage data raise questions
WASHINGTON (Reuters) –
Federal Reserve Governor Mark Olson said on Tuesday data collected under the U.S. Home Mortgage Disclosure Act raise troubling questions about lending to black and Hispanic borrowers and more research is needed.
ADVERTISEMENT
“Black and Hispanic borrowers are more likely to obtain mortgage loans from institutions that tend to specialize in subprime lending,” Olson said in testimony prepared for delivery to the House of Representatives Subcommittee on Financial Institutions.
In remarks that steered clear of the broad economy and monetary policy, Olson said while this may in part reflect such factors as borrower preference or credit scores not included in the HMDA data, there may be “more troubling causes.”
“Segmentation may stem from borrowers being steered to lenders that charge higher prices than what is warranted by the credit characteristics of these borrowers,” Olson said.
“Borrowers may also have different levels of financial literacy, or their knowledge of the mortgage lending process may be uneven — for example, they may not understand the importance of shopping and negotiating for the best loan terms,” he added, saying more research is needed on these subjects.
“The board will continue to conduct and promote research that explores the racial and ethnic differences in the incidence of higher-priced lending,” Olson said.
He said the Fed will conduct hearings in June and July on the home equity lending market.
doh!
From Ben Jones Blog…..
Here’s the list of who funded this “report”
Andersen Windows
Armstrong Holdings, Inc.
Beazer Homes USA
Black & Decker
Boral Industries
The Bozzuto Group
Bradco Supply Corporation
Builders FirstSource
Building Materials Holding Corporation
Canfor Corporation
Cendant Corporation
Centex Corporation
CertainTeed Corporation
Champion Enterprises
Countrywide Financial Corporation
Crosswinds Communities
Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae Foundation
Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston
Fortune Brands – Home and Hardware
Freddie Mac
GAF Materials Corporation
Georgia-Pacific Corporation
Hanley Wood, LLC
Hearthstone
Home Depot
HomeStore, Inc
Hovnanian Enterprises
Huttig Building Products
James Hardie Industries NV
Jeld-Wen
Johns Manville Corporation
KB Home
Kimball Hill Homes
Kohler Company
Lafarge North America
Lanoga Corporation
Lennar Corporation
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Marvin Windows and Doors
Masco Corporation
Masonite International Corporation
McGraw-Hill Construction
MI Windows and Doors, Inc.
National Gypsum Company
Oldcastle Building Products, Inc.
Owens Corning
Pacific Coast Building Products
Pella Corporation
Pulte Homes
Reed Business Information
Rinker Materials
The Ryland Group
S&B Industrial Materials S.A.
The Sherwin-Williams Company
Stock Building Supply
The Strober Organization
Temple-Inland
UBS Investment Bank
WeyerhaeuserWhirlpool Corporation
Bah hah ha ha ha ha!
Now I get it. Sometimes I’m a little slow on the uptake on these kinds of jokes.
Thanks for the splainin.
Pat
With a list like that, it’s fairly clear to see how this report is based on “flexible thinking” alright.
“New highs” in real estate are on the way!
This whole thing doesn’t reflect well on Harvard…
CF
A who’s who in real estate.
Who do you think they had to pay off to get Harvard to rubber stamp that analysis and assumptions?
Maybe build them a new set of Freshman dorms?
New hardwood floors for all the Deans?
Pat
‘Overpriced’ housing gets more overpriced Despite a slowdown, more housing markets are overvalued than ever, says one economist.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) – The rich have gotten richer, at least when it comes to home prices, according to a study released Monday.
The most overvalued housing markets in the United States recorded much higher price increases during the first quarter of 2006 than the least overvalued markets, according to the latest analysis by National City Corp, a financial holding company, and Global Insight, a financial information provider.
Worst prices
Where the home prices are least affordable
Metro area Percent overvalued Q4 2005 Median home price Q1 2006 Percent overvalued Q1 2006
Naples, FL 93.5% $383,000 102.6%
Salinas, CA 81.4% $608,600 79.1%
Port St. Lucie, FL 72.8% $240,800 77.4%
Merced CA 72.9% $291,300 77.0%
Bend, OR 65.2% $276,100 76.4%
Source: National City Corp
Best buys
The markets where houses are least overpriced
Metro area Percent undervalued Q4 2005 Median price Q1 2006 Percent undervalued Q1 2006
College Station, TX 22.1% $94,200 23.7%
Dallas, TX 18.8% $129,000 18.9%
Ft. Worth, TX 17.6% $105,500 18.5%
Houston , TX 16.6% $110,600 15.8%
Killeen, TX 11.7% $93,000 15.1%
Source: National City Corp
In the 50 most overvalued markets, prices increased 2.5 percent from the fourth quarter to the first, an annualized rate of 10.1 percent. In the 50 least overvalued markets, prices increased just 0.7 percent, an annualized rate of 2.7 percent.
Overall, U.S. home prices rose at an annualized rate of 7.3 percent for the quarter.
The report surveyed the largest 317 U.S. real estate markets. It determined what home prices should be, controlling for differences in population density, relative income levels, interest rates, and historically observed market premiums or discounts.
Markets with valuation premiums above 34 percent were judged to be severely overpriced and at risk for price corrections.
Take Naples, Florida, the most overvalued U.S. market by National City’s estimate. By the last quarter of 2005, the median price for a home, at $367,200, was about 94 percent over what National City judged it should be.
But by the end of the first quarter, the median home price in Naples was $383,000, an increase of more than four percent in just three months. Naples real estate now sells for more than double what it should cost.
Compare that to the least overvalued market, College Station, Texas, where prices are more than 23 percent below what National City estimates they should be. Despite that, prices still fell last quarter, from $95,000 to $94,200. Ft. Worth and Killeen, Texas, and Wichita, Kansas, are other very undervalued markets where prices declined.
Port St Lucie, Florida, Merced, California, and Bend, Oregon, joined Naples as overpriced cities where prices rose substantially.
Some places, of course, bucked this national trend. Salinas, Santa Barbara and Sacramento, all in California, are all among the top 50 overvalued cities where prices dropped.
And El Paso, Houston and New Orleans, all among the least overvalued cities, reported substantial price appreciation. El Paso prices sprouted at a rate of nearly 25 percent on an annual basis.
According to Richard DeKaser, National City’s chief economist, what usually happens when markets are returning to normal is that extremes of the market – the low and high ends, should move back toward the average; overvalued markets should rise slowly, if at all, and undervalued ones should shoot up.
Just the opposite is happening.
Overall, 39 percent of the 317 markets surveyed were judged to be severely overvalued. That’s up from 36 percent of markets in the last quarter of 2005.
DeKaser did find some evidence that prices may be ripe for a correction. A year ago prices in overvalued markets were going up even quicker than they are today, indicating they are pointing to a change of direction. That doesn’t mean that a normal, balanced market is right at hand.
“We’ve got a long way to go before we’re out of this market,” says DeKaser.
to RYMINGREALTOR:
Your name came up on the NJShoreBubble Blog, as a realtor with a solid reputation:
http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=11981241&postID=114807609545597530
you may try posting over at http://nnjbubble.blogspot.com/
There is a realtor, rymingrealtor, who posts there regularly who seems legit and not out to take every penny you have.
Even if you are interested in a territory she doesn’t cover, she may be able to refer someone…)
I’m starting to look for places in Monmouth and Ocean, and would like to get your contact info. You can reach me at:
ninefoothoagies(at)hotmail(dotcom)
Thanks in advance,
James
Keep in mind also that this report is based on established data, which is essentially driving through the rear view mirror. The slowdown is really only hitting meaningful levels for a month now.
Go to 100 open houses and ask the realtor how the market’s doing. That’s the only way you’ll find out what’s going on today.
We won’t see the actual statistics support what we’re writing about here for another few months
Who do you think they had to pay off to get Harvard to rubber stamp that analysis and assumptions?
The fine print:
“The opinions expressed in The State of the Nation’s Housing: 2006 do not necessarily represent the views of Harvard University, the Policy Advisory Board of the Joint Center for Housing Studies, the Ford Foundation, or the other sponsoring agencies.”
x-underwriter wrote:
“We won’t see the actual statistics support what we’re writing about here for another few months.”
I don’t know about that, check out Grim’s post from yesterday:
http://nnjbubble.blogspot.com/2006/06/northern-new-jersey-may-residential.html
(triple-click to select long links)
January – Down 15.3% YOY
February – Down 11.6% YOY
March – Down 9.9% YOY
April – Down 23.8% YOY (the “spring bounce”!)
May – Down 15.7% YOY
““The opinions expressed in The State of the Nation’s Housing: 2006 do not necessarily represent the views of Harvard University, the Policy Advisory Board of the Joint Center for Housing Studies, the Ford Foundation, or the other sponsoring agencies.”
That’s a joke.
If the opinions expressed in the report don’t reflect the opinions of the report authors, or the university from which they operate, whose opinions DO they represent?
I’m very curious to know what Yale’s Robert Schiller thinks of Harvard’s Nicolas Retsinas and others report.
Older but nice article,
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2005/1118.html
Ah..the good old days when I got my MBA and we had to support our documents with facts…
Ah..sitting with Mikey the Mainframe and running multiple regressions all night long until I was sure my analysis was not bogus.
Nobody cares about such things anymore, and it makes me sad.
Sniff, Sniff.
Pat
Interesting article out of FT.com
from some dude in Harvard.
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/15c1eb92-fa79-11da-b7ff-0000779e2340.html
Think that link should work. It was also on page 4 of todays FT newspaper (financial times).
I think this guy who wrote this article is in neverland.
Ironically, this article was on p4, but next to it on p5 was a full one page ad from FreddieMac claiming that a home is the best nest egg and trying to seduce people to buy homes. The ad contains like a cartoon of an egg with a roof over it. FreddieMac should replace that with a guy taking a shotgun to his head because he is now upside down in a home that he will in no way shape or form ever pay off and the house is worth less than he bought it for.
Thats an interesting point now isn’t it……..
Will the suicide rate go up as the rate of home prices go down?
I apologize if you guys already talked about this article. I got consfued with all the different threads….
UnRealtor
Maybe it’s already posted here somewhere, but I think the number we’re looking for is a average sales prices to go down. What that is is a decrease in units, not $$$$
That’s coming down the pipe for sure, but not yet
Average listing price is down 10% YOY in that Corzen report,
but I didn’t buy the entire report, so I only see Somerset.
http://www.corzen.com/press/20060612b.pdf
Pat
>>Who do you think they had to pay off to get Harvard to rubber stamp that analysis and assumptions?>>
I gotta love you guys. Something comes out that you disagree with, and suddenly everyone at Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies is on the take. Conspiracy theories next?
Why not analyze the report, lose the know-it-all attitude, and see the report for what it is–another policy wonk’s point of view.
No–instead you worship without question those who agree with you…which is dangerous in the extreme.
You’re turning your bubble bandwagon, which made valid points to begin with, into an unthinking runaway train.
This blog is now The Gospel According to Grim and His Disciples– and no thinking man need apply.
excerpt from roberto kiyosaki
Link On Yahoo
How to Profit From a Cooling Real Estate Market
All over the U.S. there are stories of a rise in real estate foreclosures. Many people who took those exotic mortgages — borrowing 125% of home value or choosing adjustable-rate mortgages — are struggling to make their payments, and some aren’t making it.
Also, a glut of new property supply, especially condominiums, is coming on line. A friend of mine, a very seasoned real estate investor, says in San Diego County, once one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, thousands of new condominiums are getting ready to come to market — just as the market softens. He estimates that over 12,000 new units are coming on line, and the market, at the best of times, can only absorb about 1,000 condominiums a year. If he’s correct, that means 12 years of supply will be ready for market in the next year.
As interest rates rise and the number of eager new buyers begins to diminish, adding supply to an already bad real estate market for sellers may mean a very good market for buyers and for property investors.
Read more on Yahoo link above
— BM (not bob)
The first page addresses the IO and ARM loans and describes how they were used to stretch to get into their homes. they go on to say how price reduction risk is minimal because of no layoffs and the economy being sound and a lack of overbuilding.
I would agree with the last statement under past circumstances but they talk about how IOs are years away from resetting. My understanding is that these loans typically reset in 2-3 years. BTW they mention that IO’s represent 20% of the dollar value of all loans outstanding. If that is not pure pollyanna crap.
MLS 2288625
32 Windermere Terrace, 07078
$1,895,000
5 BR, 4 BA
Tudor built in 1929
1.3 acres
1/4 acre pond on property
Looks nice enough, and for Short hills, thats a good price. Watch out for the right of way Easement though
Kiyosaki is a quack.
“This blog is now The Gospel According to Grim and His Disciples– and no thinking man need apply.”
As if anyone cares what the NAR, et al, promote (except for the sake of amusement).
First rule of analysis: consider the source. Everything else comes afterwards, and if the source stinks, proceeding past Step 1 is a fool’s errand.
“Watch out for the right of way Easement though”
Yes, didn’t see that bit. Though at 5 bedrooms, not much need to expand!
The property is really breathtaking to see. It’s listed by Burgdorff, so perhaps they’re going for the “let’s create a bidding war” strategy on pricing.
Can’t wait to see how this one unfolds.
Actually Harvard JCHS has been challenged before by Dean Baker in the past:
http://www.cepr.net/publications/Harvard_Housing_Bubble.htm
Harvard has been pretty consistently rosy, despite the market being out of whack:
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/markets/son2005/index.html
I find their outlook to be a bit too sunny for comfort. It’s naive to think their heavy support from the RE industry has no effect.
Only kind of research I trust is independent, and this isn’t quite cutting it for me.
>>First rule of analysis: consider the source. >>
Exactly. And what axe do you Bubble Bloggers have to grind?
Why do you want so much to save the rest of us from ourselves?
“This blog is now The Gospel According to Grim and His Disciples– and no thinking man need apply.”
Bob is a thinking man
This blog is now The Gospel According to Grim and His Disciples– and no thinking man need apply.
6/13/2006 01:43:47 PM
dude – give us a slight bit of credit
I know you are just trolling us anyway.
Sincerely,
Graduate of
Hunter College High School 1986
Cornell University 1990
University of Chicago 1997
Formerly employed by:
PriceWaterhouseCoopers
AT&T Treasury
Assisted in originating, pricing and syndicating a $9B Corporate Bond Deal.
Managed the largest non-financial Commerical Paper program across Y2K, which at its peak had $10B in market value of securities outstanding.
Currently assist people in making personal decisions appropriate for their situation regarding, among other things, real estate.
Please go sell something.
Troll alert? :)
I have my BS from Cal Tech in 86, MS from Stanford in 88 and Ph.D. from U C Berkeley in 1995.
worked for NASA and was a professor and studied under a Nobel laureate.
Featured on the front page of WSJ and was on CNN, CNBC, etc.
a follower? hardly.
Go spray some perfume at Macy’s.
Hey, I’m not selling anything, honest. I’m just the idiot who bought his house for $190K in 1975. Last year, it was worth $2 million…this year, less, without a doubt.
Some of you folks urged me to sell it now, before I lose even more money.
Not so sure that’s good advice, but I’m at least listening, without the know-it-all attitude you folks seem to have.
I just wonder why you’re all so obviously anxious to see real estate prices collapse so completely, that’s all.
As I said, I’m a contrarian, and a crankly old one at that.
“Exactly. And what axe do you Bubble Bloggers have to grind?”
Uh, that median home prices are about 10X median income.
“Why do you want so much to save the rest of us from ourselves?”
Hey, if you want to buy now, go right ahead. Why are you reading this blog, it certainly won’t help you sleep at night.
If someone over-extends themselves to get into a massively-overpriced house, the Anti-Fools will be around soon enough to drop 40% down.
I have simple explanation of Harvard study.
It was written in December 2005, they misplaced it, found it now, did cut & paste of 2005 to 2006, and published it.
HAHAHAHAHAHA !!!!
“Hey, I’m not selling anything, honest. I’m just the idiot who bought his house for $190K in 1975. Last year, it was worth $2 million…this year, less, without a doubt.
Some of you folks urged me to sell it now, before I lose even more money.
Not so sure that’s good advice, but I’m at least listening, without the know-it-all attitude you folks seem to have.
I just wonder why you’re all so obviously anxious to see real estate prices collapse so completely, that’s all.
As I said, I’m a contrarian, and a crankly old one at that.”
I am an investor. I don’t want RE to collapse. If it does, it affects more than just house price. I prefer soft landing.
If our economy tanks, housing price will be the least of our worries.
I am more concerned about the overall strength of the economy.
I am not sure everyone here has the know-it-all attitude. I myself learn much from reading this blog.
I think of myself as a student in everything. I learn something new every day.
As for myself, I have a house which I bought at Feb. 2000. I sold my investment apartment May 2005 while holding onto a building I own in the middle of Orthodox Jewish neighborhood.
I would like to buy more properties 3-5 years from now.
Anonymous said…
“Hey, I’m not selling anything, honest. I’m just the idiot who bought his house for $190K in 1975. Last year, it was worth $2 million…this year, less, without a doubt. Some of you folks urged me to sell it now, before I lose even more money.”
You havent lost money it is jkust worth less.
“Not so sure that’s good advice, but I’m at least listening, without the know-it-all attitude you folks seem to have.
I just wonder why you’re all so obviously anxious to see real estate prices collapse so completely, that’s all.”
Dude it just that they have appreciated beyond reason. They only have one direction to go at this point.
“As I said, I’m a contrarian, and a crankly old one at that. ”
If you are a contrarian you would be in our camp. WE ARE CONTRARIANS IN CASE YOU HAVE NOT NOTICED.
1975 Buyer,
You’re sitting on a $1.8M house near the peak of a massive real estate bubble.
If you’re nearing retirement, and could use an extra million in liquid, it might be a good time to sell.
Or, maybe you can trade for 32 Windermere Terrace (above).
:)
many times your first loss is the best loss.
this is what the cheap financing
got us.
what a mess this housing thing is going to be.
plus we have a market meltdown,
so,,, many sellers will just want
out.
if you look into their eyes,, we call that fear.
What a Mess.
It is very contrarian to have a pond, by the way.
“bought his house for $190K in 1975”.
“last year, it was worth $2 million”
At this point, you’ve made an awesome return on the property and are in no danger of losing any real money if the values go down before you eventually do sell.
Whether or not want to sell the house and move out of NJ should be a personal decision only, based on where you want to live.
Keep in mind, however, that by staying in the property you probably are incurring the risk that your gains might not be as much as you once thought.
“bought his house for $190K in 1975”.
“last year, it was worth $2 million”
Just out of curiosity, How much are the Property Taxes ??? Has the property assessed recently ?
Gold drops most in 15 years.
this is not going to be good
for the housing markets.
investor david: And becasue housing has gotten out of control the downturn will be that much more severe, that is what I and others have been saying.
Had it been addressed in the summer of 03, and aggressively, we could have perhaps achieved your soft landing.
Ayy time prices get out of whack, they have to correct, the more out of whack, the more the correction. This correction will enable the next geneartion of home buyers to purchase, and so the circle continues. It happened before, and it s happening again, it really is that simple.
Nobody I repeat nobody is closed out of the market forever.
House is in NY metro area (Greenwich CT) but not Northern NJ, sorry. Still, one of the commuter suburbs so similar in that way.
You’ll cry when I tell you the taxes–$9,000/year. Greenwich govt has always been fiscally responsible, pay-as-you-go, hence the low taxes. Probably going to go up some soon, though, as the newcomers in town are demanding bigger and better everything.
Sorry to hear about the state of things in NNJ. Listings here are up 15% over last year according to the MLS figures. But alot of us crusty old timers have deep pockets, drive our old cars into the ground, and don’t believe in making rash decisions.
No need to tell me to go sell perfume at Macy’s..hard to believe that just disagreeing could draw so much ire from you young folks.
“You’ll cry when I tell you the taxes–$9,000/year.”
Yes, the pond probably isn’t worth the extra $20,000 each year.
Greenwich,, if you dont have a
15,000 sq. ft. house..
look down the nose at you.
and as has been pointed out,,
house has to be seen from the road,,not at the end of a long
driveway.
got to flash it.
CNN uncritically swallows this Harvard report whole, and further, cites a ‘National Association of Realtors’ lackey:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/13/real_estate/Harvard_study_housing_slow_growth/
(triple-click to select long links)
anon 6/13/2006 03:25:13 PM:
Just so you understand, due to the views that I have, I have been called: jealous; an idiot; a coward; a jackass; spineless; a loser.
Although I can’t confirm it, the bulk of the people volleying the insults appear to be: real estate agents; salespeople for publicly traded homebuilders; individuals who purchased real estate as an investment; people who may be in the market soon to sell.
Being a veteran of internet stock boards during 1998-2000 on RagingBull.com, I hope you will understand the hyper-sensitivity that I have regarding people positing views or allegations that are unsupported.
“Anonymous said…
No need to tell me to go sell perfume at Macy’s..hard to believe that just disagreeing could draw so much ire from you young folks.
6/13/2006 03:25:13 PM”
G’wich,
We are trolled by RE agents who are contrarian to us. All views are welcome as grim says, but please do not accuse us (at least me) of wanting to see anything like economic collapse.
BTW it would help if you signed your entries so some of us could see the chain of thought instead of thinking that it is a hoard of Anonymous. Just a courtesy is all. I say welcome to you “G’wich Gus”.
If you have a house in Greenwich, CT., I would not sell it. The market is still strong in Greenwich, Ct.
I know Greenwich real well — actually extremely intimately.
The housing market is still strong in Greenwich area. Is your house in the Old Greenwich area? near the Ocean?
P.S. About the perfume, it’s an inside joke towards the real estate agents. I wasn’t trying to insult you. If you felt that way, I do apologize.
chicagofinance: I have been called a loser, a dirty low life loser renter, also an idiot, moron, stupid, jealous, and a big know it all to name just a few. I hvev left out of course the words that go in front, such as —– loser and so on.
I have also been called doom and gloom, and have been accused of single handly trying to bring down real estate in my area.
Now the latest one from this blog is some one telling me to adjust my meds.
Through it all however not one has been able to rationally debate any points that housing bears like myself and others have bought up. The old attack what you cannot understand, although that is a scary thought, because most of this is just plain common sense.
One telling thing however, is that some of these people who used to attack me, are now strangely silent, or outright avoid me. Interesting.
“I just wonder why you’re all so obviously anxious to see real estate prices collapse so completely, that’s all.”
Imaging your home burning down and the insurance didn’t pay for anything. Then imagine all your assets and income dissapearing except about $5,000 with an annual income of about $50,000.
Now imagine yourself having to go out and find a new house with just that. Shocking, huh?
Outside of Greenwich, that’s how 99% of society lives.
The next generation of homebuyers doesn’t exist. People coming out of college now simply can’t afford even the crappiest house in the crappiest neighborhood.
I told some of the people I know not to buy any more investment properties. They all ganged up on me and told me that my Ph.D. is not worth much compare to their real world experiences (none of them graduated from college – they all worked hard since they finished high schools).
One now has a house on the market for $1.79M which he bought 2 years ago at $1.27M. He initially listed it at $1.85M. He bought a house last year at 1.6M during planning stage. It was initially listed at $1.8M. Same house by the same builder is listed now at $1.6M but the agent told me that it will go for $1.4M.
Another one bought a property for $850K this Jan. and in the process of putting around $500K and plan to flip it for $1.8M.
Another one bought a small house, a small building and some land within last 2 years.
They all think that they will be so rich from these property flipping. And I am the moron.
exunerwriter said
“The next generation of homebuyers doesn’t exist. People coming out of college now simply can’t afford even the crappiest house in the crappiest neighborhood.”
They are already in the hole from college loans (see yesterday’s Usatoday)
Hey, thanks for the tip about choosing a name to post with. Your suggestion of G’wich Gus sounds good to me.
No, I’m not in OG, which I understand to be the hot area these days for the kids who want to be on 1/4 acre. I have 2 1/2 acres in the one acre-zone in G’wich. Subdividable, but not by me. Like my privacy, thank you.
House is not much to look at, I’m told, because the ceilings are only 8 feet high. That’s high enough for this old man (6’4″) but not for the Masters of the Universe Hedge Fund Young Turks buying property in this town now.
My house will be torn down no doubt. Always thought I’d be carried out of this place feet first before that happens but who knows.
So the market in G’wich is still strong, you say? Why are things so different here?
Offtopic: A Look at Harvard record. In June 11, 2001 report, they praised AOL. I guess that time they still had not figured out the word “Internet BUBBLE”.
AOL: You’ve Got Credibility!
Yet despite such dramatic change, one of AOL’s distinguishing features has been its care in making sure that the market understands its business model. Since 1996, when it began its transformation from computer-networking company to media giant, AOL has consistently signaled changes in its strategic direction to the investment community, even when doing so might have seemed perverse or damaging. The market has registered its strong approval. AOL’s stock price has increased 1,468% since October 1996, compared with a 100% increase in the S&P 500, which AOL joined in December 1998.
AOL’s communication strategy follows four simple but often neglected rules. First, the company takes care to ensure that its financial reporting reflects its strategy as closely as possible: accounting policies are chosen to be consistent with what managers claim to be the drivers of the company’s success. Second, AOL takes the lead in popularizing the nonfinancial metrics that best predict—and flatter—the performance of its businesses. Third, when it makes a change in strategy, AOL appoints top managers with recognized credibility in the new arena. Finally, AOL assiduously cultivates the capital market experts covering the industries in which it competes. In this article, I will explore each of these rules, and I will show how AOL’s communication strategy has kept pace with its evolving business strategy, making it easy for investors to interpret—and reward—its results.
Gus,
My kid plays hockey and water polo at Greenwich. I know “people” there.
One of my very good friends is a real estate lawyer in Greenwich (for a very very long time).
He told me that Greenwich real estate market is so strong that it keeps going up.
I don’t think Greenwich is part of America.
I know that 1 acre of land in the ocean front property in Greenwich is about $20M.
Anybody, who is somebody, wants to have a property in Greenwich. Don’t sell unless you are in the “bad” section of Greenwich.
Contrary to what people think, Greenwich is a mixed area. There are super super rich folks there and there are also very very poor people.
Remember the Gun scare at the Greenwich high by the kids from Stamford?
G’wich Gus,
Let’s keep these conversations to discussing the housing bubble at large, not you own personal interests
So the market in G’wich is still strong, you say? Why are things so different here?
6/13/2006 04:04:20 PM
You know the answer to that question. As we know, the richest 0.5% of the population [i.e. Greenwich] are benefitting tremendously in this environment.
What you should be tracking is the performance of hedge funds, and hedge fund compensation. If there is a blow-up or mass exodus, your real estate market will be on the cusp of the change.
Hey, Chicago:
PWC Phila Consulting ’87-’95
Hi.
Pat
Sorry if my personal postings are not of interest. I’ll try to do better.
But the Greenwich “exception” to the bubble, if there is one, is interesting generally, no?
Is it possible that there will be a “flight to quality” in real estate if things get really bad?
I mean, will choice property like waterfront move contrary to the rest of the real estate market?
Gus,
I am interested in your personal story. A big picture is made up with thousands of small pictures and stories.
Don’t let some “anonymous” poster stop you from telling your story.
The choice Water Front Property in Greenwich will always move, no matter what.
But some part of the Greenwich will get affected if the economy becomes real bad.
are you in Cos cob?
Not all Greenwich is the same as you know.
When was the last time you visited the Boys and Girls Club at night? There are so many kids there at night, whose parents have to work late at night as helpers for the Old Greenwich folks.
Isn’t the “Greenwich is different” argument the same as the “Summit is different” argument?
If real estate can appreciate in Greenwich, it can certainly decline in Greenwich, otherwise that $20M house on the water would have also cost $20M fifty years ago.
Greenwich does have a very tony image, to be sure.
But there are three public housing projects in town that outsiders don’t seem to know exist.
unreal:
You are -of course- correct. I guess the point here is that Greenwich is one of the premier towns in the entire country. A good number of the buyers do not even need to finance their homes, and developers have no power.
I won’t speak for people who would know better.
I guess certain parts of Short Hills may equate, but really nowhere in NJ is there a place with equivalent cachet.
Summit is a middle class backwater by comparison.
Just my opinion.
to be clear
residents of Greenwich are not spending in excess of 30% of their annual income on housing
I have an MBA from NYU and two undergraduate degrees. Harvard recruited me for their summer high school program when I qualified for the Indiana state chemistry finals (sent me a polite thanks, but no thanks when they saw my grades).
My father-in-law has been beating me over the head about my opinions on the real estate market for the last two years. Basically, “…real estate never goes down!”
Fortunately, my father has 30+ years in real estate, construction and a PHD in finance. He’s not as negative as me, but he does believe there will be a one to two year dip and then a slow rebound. He also thinks a lot of people are in for real pain when the ARMs and IO’s readjust and can’t believe the lending standards.
JM
This post has been removed by the author.
Yes, discussing Greenwich is really like talking about the Upper East Side. Yes, you can find an affordable apartment on the Upper East Side if your wallet is big and you look hard enough, but when the pitch comes, Greenwich and the Upper East Side will feel it last. Summit will be affordable long before Greenwich opens its doors to most of us.
And, by the way, the crash will come in NNJ; it’s just a question of when and how much.
WM
gwich gus, anon 1:43 etc.
If you feel the “board” did not give you the answer you were looking for (i.e., “don’t sell your place”) you should try the real estate blogs that NAR supports…they may give you the advice you are looking for.
It is indeed interesting that you came to NNJ housing bubble blog and wish to tell us about your gwich propertiy that you think is not inflated.
Sounds like you already know that you are not going to sell…Good idea if you ask me…why not? After all one thing you should know is that everyone is free to make their own decisions..buy now, buy later, sell now, sell later..sit on the fence, hold the bag…etc…you get the idea.
Good luck whatever you choose to do..hopefully greenwich will not go down…but nobody here really knows for sure…you are your best ally!!
cheers
DK
unrealtor,
I don’t think you can compare Summit to Greenwich. I know both areas pretty well. No comparison.
Summit doesn’t come even close to Old Greenwich.
My kid had a sleep-over at one of his hockey buddy’s house. I believe the house was worth somewhere around $70M and that was one of many houses they own (his dad is the 2nd man in one of the biggest investment banks in this country).
Another kid’s grandpa own a small baseball team called NY Mets.
Another kid’s live with his uncle. I think his name is Mark Messier.
And another kid’s father is a first line center for the NY Rangers ( I think his dad pulled $3M last year).
Most of these guys are either very old money (true blue blood) or CEO or partners in marqui investment firms.
But as Gus said, they do have public housing and it creates a lot of problems in Greenwich.
DK, you said much of what I wanted to tell G’wich.
There is a time and a place to challenge acceptable socio-economic ideas, assumptions and norms.
Should be.
Unfortunately, during the last three years, none of the appropriate venues, including those public institutions that we have vested with the responsibility of regulating, monitoring and correcting the RE and mtg. industries, has taken the bull by the balls.
I’m no crusader, and have no right to preach to anyone.
But if discussing the topic helps one other person avoid signing a suicide mortgage just to get a $500K roof over their heads, then maybe I used my brain for something besides ear glue.
Pat
For a comparison purpose, one of the kids who used to play hockey with my kid lives in Alpine. I believe his father bought the house from Mariah Carey about 10 years ago at $30M. After our team won the state of NJ championship, we had a party at his house. I believe his house is around $60M now.
This house was worth less but much nicer than the house in Old Greenwich, which was worth $70M.
investordavid:
boring, boring, boring . . . .
I wasn’t in the NYC area during the last dowturn, but I was in California in the early 90s.
And the elite towns in Si Valley — Atherton, Los Altos Hills — they took their lumps in the last downturn like everyone else.
“I wasn’t in the NYC area during the last dowturn, but I was in California in the early 90s.
“And the elite towns in Si Valley — Atherton, Los Altos Hills — they took their lumps in the last downturn like everyone else.”
I was in Atherton Two years ago at my sister-in-laws in-laws house. Anyway Just two years ago the house sold for almost 5 Milion Just a 2100 sq/ft ranch with a pool on .5 acres. Nice place but really pricey stuff.
Maybe I did not see the SI valley influence but the houses all around the place are packed in and ugly especially north of Atherton.
Seems REinvestor is late to the game, again.
“Summit doesn’t come even close to Old Greenwich.”
I wasn’t comparing the two towns, per se, but the notion that a given town is “immune.”
We had a thread awhile back where people thought Summit property values would never go down, because of top-rated schools, and the Midtown direct train line, etc. Problem is, all that was true 4 years ago, when properties cost 100% less.
Greenwich may “be different” but I wouldn’t gamble my life, or savings on it.
gsmls – 30,848
I guess more opportunities for our investor friends.
“Problem is, all that was true 4 years ago, when properties cost 100% less.”
Wow — they were free 4 years back :-) ?
unrealtor @ 6/13/2006 08:25:48 PM
you mean the realtor who thinks he is a investor?
“Wow — they were free 4 years back :-) ?”
Yes, yes, thank you. :)
unreal:
I agree that you are correct about Greenwich.
I guess the point is that if your Greenwich home drops in value from $70M to $55M, the likely reaction is “wow – kinda sucks”, as opposed to “my entire life is ruined forever”.
But again, you are right.
you wouldn’t want to live in Greenwich unless you were loaded. if you can’t keep up with your neighbors then you’ll be shunned and an outcast. this is pretty much true in any of the wealthy towns, particularly those that are heavily populated with Wall Streeters like Westfield.
Interesting back and forth here. Although some of the tools that post anonymously make me glad that the new forum does not allow anonymous posting.
Chicagofinance, I look forward to your views, in particular.
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unrealtor,
The price will go down in Greenwich just like any other places as you stated. But it will be one of the last places to be affected — well after Summit.
In my area, northeast Bergen County, the housing price went down 5%-10% since last Summer.
But in Greenwich, instead of going down, it is still going up and demand is far greater than the supply in Old Greenwich.
You can still buy a house in Greenwich for $600K but I wouldn’t want to live in that part of the town.
I’m not buying the “Greenwich is different” argument.
there are currently 145 houses for sale in Greenwich between $1 and 2 million. These places were worth $500,000-1,000,000 in 2000.
There are a lot of true elites in Greenwich, but it is still a big town. The CEOs and hedge fund managers are not buying these rather ordinary $1,000,000 houses. Junior people who work in Greenwich don’t necessarily live in them either. A lot of people reverse commute from the city or live in outlying areas where housing is relatively affordable. Moreover, you’ve got towns just across the border in Westchester that are nearly as posh with a glut of $1,000,000+ homes for sale. Same goes for Darien and other similar towns in Fairfield County.
Seems to me that there are many more pretty much middle class old timers in Greenwich trying to cash in by selling at the peak than there are first time buyers ready to step into their overpriced ordinary homes (even if they are in Greenwich)
Interesting for this middle class old timer, as you put it, to see Greenwich so discussed.
You’re right that nobody wants our “rather ordinary” $1MM houses. What they seem to want is the land underneath them.
The town tax assessor gave a talk on this a couple of months ago when the new assessments came out. Gist was that if your house was built before 1985 it’s a teardown.
I would hope that rule doesn’t apply to the big old stone places in town though, built before the war. They have a class that just can’t be duplicated.
Those posh towns in Westchester, by the way, have a tax rate that is four times higher than G’wich.
the tax rates in Westchester are shockingly high compared to CT, but I’m not sure how much of an effect this has in terms of property values.
On a $1M house, you’re already looking at $5200 per month in mortgage payments (assuming 20% down), so I don’t know if an extra $500 per month is really gonna make or break you if you are in this market.
The teardown phenomenon is huge where I live in Westchester as I’m sure it is in Greenwich as well. The problem is that there are only so many people who can afford the newly-built multi-million dollar homes, even in these very high income areas.
There are currently 266 houses for sale in Greenwich over $2M. There are 112 over $4M. That is a huge amount of high end inventory, even in a town like Greenwich. I’m sure a lot of them were bought before construction began, but many are spec built and I think the prices on these are going to be cut very fast (and will drive down the rest of the high end prices).
No so sure about the huge inventory you speak of. This RE company (no connection to me or mine) has statistics posted going back 5 or so years. Shows a 15% rise in inventory compared with the same month last year:
http://www.liveingreenwich.com/marketdata.htm
the inventory numbers on that site do show a major dropoff in what I’d consider “affordable” homes in Greenwich, but the high end inventory has been going up steadily. Of course, any claim of “huge” inventory is subjective, but it seems to me, as evidenced by the dearth of properties at the low end, that many of these higher priced properties would sell if sellers had more realistic asking prices
greenwich has alot of inventory and sales have slowed down significantly.
I’d like to see the data to back that up. Am I being misled by the broker’s site I’ve been looking at?
Inventory of single-family houses is up less than 15% over last year at this time according to that broker’s figures. Fudged, do you think?
Inventory of condos is way up, though, I suspect due to a new condo conversion that is going on in town.
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