Lowball! takes a look at home sales over the past week from a very different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales over the past week and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between asking price and selling price.
The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.The list does not contain all sales, I hand-pick the most interesting sales from the list. These listings might be the highest dollar drops, biggest percentage reductions, or sales in towns that are thought to still be ‘hot’. Please note, even with double digit percentage reductions, these homes are still incredibly overpriced.
As promised, here are the balance of the counties that were not included in the weekend edition of Lowball! (Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren). I’ve had some emails requesting that I post Lowball sales in lower price ranges. I’m going to take that approach this week, as well as keep it in mind for future Lowball! postings. In order to keep things brief, I’ve limited the list to the top lowball sale per town that fit the lower price range (Sub $450k).
On to the list!
MLS# 2229002 – Montague, NJ
Original List Price $184,900
List Price $154,900
Sales Price $83,000 (46.4% Lowball, 55.1% off OLP)
MLS# 2274142 – Hopatcong, NJ
List Price $215,000
Sales Price $156,000 (27.4% Lowball)
MLS# 2267519 – Sandyston, NJ
List Price $149,900
Sales Price $110,000 (26.6% Lowball)
MLS# 2232066 – Hamburg, NJ
List Price $550,000
Sales Price $440,000 (20% Lowball)
MLS# 2264771 – Vernon, NJ
Original List Price $235,000
List Price $211,500
Sales Price $172,315 (18.5% Lowball, 26.7% off OLP)
MLS# 2242260 – Byram, NJ
List Price $150,000
Sales Price $125,000 (16.7% Lowball)
MLS# 2250330 – Knowlton, NJ
Original List Price $225,000
List Price $199,900
Sales Price $167,500 (16.2% Lowball, 25.6% off OLP)
MLS# 2258231 – Warren, NJ
List Price $500,000
Sales Price $420,000 (16% Lowball)
MLS# 2258797 – North Plainfield, NJ
List Price $329,000
Sales Price $280,000 (14.9% Lowball)
MLS# 2258817 – Montgomery, NJ
List Price $339,900
Sales Price $290,000 (14.7% Lowball)
MLS# 2263223 – Harmony, NJ
List Price $264,900
Sales Price $227,000 (14.3% Lowball)
MLS# 2272658 – Ringwood, NJ
List Price $329,900
Sales Price $285,000 (13.6% Lowball)
MLS# 2237324 – Franklin, NJ
Original List Price $225,000
List Price $214,900
Sales Price $187,000 (13% Lowball, 16.9% off OLP)
MLS# 2256404 – Sparta, NJ
List Price $269,900
Sales Price $235,000 (12.9% Lowball)
MLS# 2276985 – Wayne, NJ
List Price $399,900
Sales Price $350,000 (12.5% Lowball)
MLS# 2242806 – Phillipsburg, NJ
Original List Price $249,900
List Price $239,900
Sales Price $210,000 (12.5% Lowball, 16% off OLP)
MLS# 2253490 – Raritan, NJ
List Price $349,000
Sales Price $312,000 (10.6% Lowball)
MLS# 2267094 – Mansfield, NJ
List Price $240,000
Sales Price $215,000 (10.4% Lowball)
MLS# 2211701 – Clifton, NJ
List Price $345,000
Sales Price $310,000 (10.1% Lowball)
MLS# 2072567 – Bridgewater, NJ
List Price $394,900
Sales Price $354,900 (10.1% Lowball)
Caveat Emptor!
Grim
Do you know anything about Morris county? I’ve got a sister who is trying to sell a house in Mount Olive Twp.
grim,
could you post something on monmouth county, specifically marlboro and manalapan area in 500-650 range.
thanks again for all of your exhaustive work.
doctork
Dummies think they got a bargain?
I know it’s a buyers market!!
Hahahaha
Take 30% off and maybe we are at fair value on houses. Condos immed take 50% off!
Bababbababa
BUST
Bob
30% and 50% off Peak 2005 prices Not some manipulated greedy grubbers inflated dream price.
Babababa
Housing Bust
Bob
May I respectfully suggest that Lowball! is pretty meaningless?
It’s easy enough to find sellers with an inflated idea of what their house is worth. The fact that the house actually sells for considerably less says very little about the state of the market. Indeed, many of these sellers are still making quite a tidy profit.
What I’d like to see is evidence of real economic pain–something along the lines of Flips that Flopped! –houses bought in the last two or three years or so that are now on the market, or actually closing, at nearly the same price, or even less, than their purchase price.
Have to disagree Anon, I think Lowball! is a very interesting feature.
You do realize this is a personal blog, where the owner is not compensated for their time, right?
Every posting can’t involve hours of research (though some probably do).
unreal:
I think grim appreciates the feedback. He’d rather be brutalized than marginalized.
JMHO
chicago
SAS, if your out there since you have been the voice or reason recently on issues of ‘who is posting what’ based on their own personal biases… how do you respond to the fact that, in 30+ years of history (using OFHEO.GOV data) there has never been a correction, in 1 quarter, 1 year or 5 years of more than about 5% decline in NJ? By the way, i checked the data…NY,NJ and PA were all pretty well correlated. For me, then, this spells, no drama (major decline) and many,hopeless years of ‘flatness’ (ie ’87 – ’94) since the marginal homebuyer isnt big enough (ie 25% own their homes) to move prices that much without huge (and unlikely) changes in 30yr rates?
Curious
Thanks to Grim for sharing tons of information with us! Could you also add lowball information in Begen and Morris, PLEASE?
Could be Chicago, but people often don’t realize the value of someone else’s time.
On another note, that Summit Ave/Route 24 auction house is having a TUESDAY open house tomorrow:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/185541436.html
Must be in/nearing foreclosure.
Looks like a builder got in over his head with a tear-down. Foreclosure is one way to get the memo that the bubble is over.
Curious:
I know your question was directed at SAS, but if the local economy goes into recession [i.e. Wall Street gets hit] all bets are off. People are not going to know what hit them. Book it.
chicago
Could be Chicago, but people often don’t realize the value of someone else’s time.
I don’t think I could have phrased my posting more carefully. Re-read it. No where do I demand that Grim do this research… but perhaps those who follow particular subsets of the market carefully can provide examples.
And by the way, I think Grim is a big boy who can look out for himself, don’t you?
“No where do I demand that Grim do this research.”
Nowhere did I write that you did (assuming you’re the same Anon, since you don’t sign your posts).
BTW, your requests (flips that flopped, houses closing below price paid) have been addressed here many times. Check out some of the older threads, if you’re new around these parts.
Coolidge Place
Haledon, NJ
MLS# 2229164
List Date: 12/29/2005
OLP: $459,000
LP: $399,900
Withdrawn
Was Purchased 1/21/2006
$387,500
MLS# 2261642
List Date: 3/29/2006
OLP: $399,000
Sold 7/13/2006
$385,000
~$350,000 less 5% commission
-grim
12## Lincoln Ave, Pompton Plains NJ
Purchased 2/2005 for $325,000
MLS# 2272081
List Date: 4/28/2006
OLP: $357,000
LP: $339,900
Sales Price: $324,000
~$308,000 less 5% commission
grim
Grim,
The list is NW NJ heavy. Is that on purpose is that where the big hits have occurred?
BTW, bigpicture features an article in Barrons speculating on the new lending regs effect on housing demand.
http://www.bigpicture.typepad.com/
CR goes into the articl in the NYT that you referenced a couple threads ago and dovetails it with an article in the WSJ that discusses the overvalued appraisals for recent loans.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
I’d consider this one a loss after commission..
9# Finch Road, Ringwood
Purchased 2/2005 for $950,225
MLS# 2268934
List Date: 4/19/2006
OLP: $998,800
Sales Price: $955,000
~$908,000 less 5% commission
Look at the huge price drop on Hoboken condo
This weekend I drove through NJ waterfront. Massive luxary condo build out is going on there. I hope this will provide affordable housing for people who don’t want to commute 2 hours each way daily
To all-
Read this post! Cited by Bubblemeter…sobering, scary stuff on the Florida market that has some implications for NJ…
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/07/ghost-housing-market.html
Basically, get in the crash position, there will be no soft landing!
JM
I went to my first ever open houses this weekend in the morris / union county area. Some houses that were decently priced (525k or so) are just dumps with horrid layouts and tiny bedrooms. Also most had no basements.
Over the next 6 months I think
many sellers are about to be
taught a lesson.
I have never seen so many s–t
boxes so overpriced.
Many are unliveable.
What’t the story in NOrwood
I hear many over $1million homes
just siting.
grim,
I can thank you enough for this blog. I have just spent some time reading up on your 80s bubble review. very nice and detailed.
since you said you spent a lot time studying this bust. which phase do you think we are at right now?
You could easily see 30-40%
cuts on many of these homes for
sale. This will be over the next
12 months.
The sellers just have to start seeing the reality of the situation.
in terms of price stagnation or decline potential, it depends on 2 major factors. jobs and location. a summit will hold up better than a scotch plains. both will move in the same direction but at different slopes and lagging timeframes. how jobs versus psychological investor led run up’s is related is the big unknown in today’s climate versus past bubbles.
summit will hold up better than a scotch plains
What do you base this on?
Friend of mine just a lowballed house in Manalapan. He lowballed 7-8%. The list price was around 700k, he got it for around 660k. (Don’t know the exact numbers). It is a 4 bed 3 bath 12 yrs young on 1 acre.
He said it is a good deal because it is buyers market. And similar houses were going for 750k last year.
When I ask about his current townhouse in Marlboro. He said he hasn’t sold it yet but he is not worry. He said everyone wants to buy in Marlboro especially in his development/school district. He said he will have no problem for getting last year’s peak price of 550k. When I ask about buyers market and Marlboro, he said Marlboro is affected!!!!!!!!!
I am interested to see how this turns out.
Sorry. from last post
Marlboro is NOT affected!!!!!!!!!
anon 2:55
amazing that he would see such lines between the two towns. Keep us updated on how his townhouse sale goes…or doesn’t go!! Yeah, folks around these parts even in manalapan think they are insulated..i mean if prices close to nyc are dropping ~15-20% as shown on lowball, why not here?
doctork
I don’t see any difference between Marlboro and Manapalan. Right now your friend is a seller and he is in a seller stand point.
Your friend is about to be taught
a lesson. In real estate .
No comments on those 3 losses I posted?
Those are usually pretty difficult for me to find, simply because you have to look up tax record after tax record for recent sales.
I found those 3 relatively quickly.
grim
“What do you base this on?
my own extensive tracking of top to mid tier towns for the past year. price bouyancy at the starter house level is far stronger in the top towns than in mid tier towns. final sales prices today in comparison to 6 and even 12 months ago are closer than in mid tier towns.
its over the cheap money.
lesson will be taught.
grim said…
No comments on those 3 losses I posted?
Those are usually pretty difficult for me to find, simply because you have to look up tax record after tax record for recent sales.
I found those 3 relatively quickly.
grim
7/24/2006 03:28:58 PM
What? Only 3?
Work harder!
I’ll have a steak sandwich, a bloody mary, and a steak sandwich.
‘E-mortgages’ on the way
“Homebuyers may soon handle their entire mortgage transaction electronically”
http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/24/real_estate/emortgages/index.htm
http://tinyurl.com/ea87e
The next tab on Zillow?
Grim:
Do you have any insights into 16 william penn road, Warren, NJ?
It was listed Nov 2005 and withdrown on March 28th.. But so far no closing yet..
I was driving by yesterday, the house is empty. I also had an agent called the owner about two weeks ago, the owner said it was under contract..
But why the closing took so long? does that signal problems?
Thanks,
Central NJ house hunting.
Could be contingent on the buyer selling.
grim
Chicagofinance,
“I’ll have a steak sandwich, a bloody mary, and a steak sandwich”
That was a great movie. Sequel was a bore though. Only movie during which I feel asleep. That could have had something to do with the beers that we smuggled into the movie though.
Central NJ house hunting.
What was listing price for 16 William Penn road, Warren, NJ. They have some nice mansions there.
I am curious to find out.
CC
I heard 2 realtors yesterday tell me that the house they were showing had already been sold, got to the closing, and then the money was just not there and the seller backed out. the person who was selling the house had already purchased a new home, and now was desperate to sell
Another way to track price declines is to use townhomes as a proxy. What you need to do is to find a representative set of streets that share similar units, and track them using whatever tax system you prefer.
You can then compare sales based on assessed value. Works very well in large developments with a high number of similar units.
For example, looking at Riverwalk Drive in Clifton (Townhouse Complex).
Sales for Asses. Val: $236,100
12/1/2005 $449,000
1/5/2006 $444,0000
Sales for Asses. Val: $223,600
9/19/2005 $455,000
11/2/2005 $440,000
1/23/2006 $438,000
For those who think appraisal fraud is rare, and that lenders do not pressure appraisers to “hit the numbers..
http://appraiserspetition.com/
I’m sure they’ll hit 10,000 ‘online’ signatures in the next few weeks.
grim
grim-
ok let me comment on your 3 finds..Pretty darn cool!! This of course gets no press in the new outlets..at least not yet..but I have to say this kind of data keeps me glued to your blog and other housing indicator internet sites and out of harms way at open houses.
doctork
I can’t believe they had that Bergen Record article about the “Haworth McMansion” blog that a guy advertised with a sign on his garage and haven’t wrote a piece about NNJBubble
I’m not sure I’d call any of those three “flips”.
grim
Anon @ 2:55,
If you are good friend to your buddy, you should have him
– cancel the contract on the SFD he just brought (if it is not past attorney review) yet
– put his townhouse in Marlton for sale
– once he gets an offer & contract and gets it past attorney review & post inspection negotiations, then he can start shopping for a house
– Assure him that the same SFD will still be available
– If the closings cannot be synced around the same time, tell him to move his stuff to a storage lot and live in a motel for a while
– He will at least save a few thousand dollars by going through the above but best of all, he will not lose his shirt trying to sell his townhouse while he has another mortgage.
CNS
Previous post – read Marlboro not Marlton.
CNS
I just ran a RENT vs BUY calculator on a $350,000 townhouse. Assuming the value increases less then 1% per year (0.5%) I still come away ahead! Thats just crazy when your house appreciates less then a percent and you are better off. lol I love to see all the people here talking about how RENTING is better. Thats NUTS.
House: $350,000 property vaue (1300 sq ft 2BR/3Bathroom condo w/ garage)
6.875% 30 year fixed
5% downpayment
versus
Rent: $1500 (MINIMUM in Essex County for equivalent space+garage)
5% annual rent increase
Results
$521.96
Home Purchase Benefit
Rent Analysis:
Years to Rent 5 Years
Total Rent and Insurance $102,433.00
House Purchase Equivalent $244,198.49
Home Ownership Analysis
Mortgage Payments $130,072.00
Taxes and Insurance $2,250.00
Maintenance $600.00
Tax Savings $0.00
Ownership and Investment $132,322.04
Home Analysis
Monthly Mortgage Payment (P&I) $2,167.87
House Appreciation Value $360,627.00
Proceeds Minus Costs $360,627.00
Loan Balance $310,216.00
Equity Appreciation $30,411.00
Rent Vs. Buy Analysis
Monthly Rent Savings $498.15
Total Rent Savings $29,889.04
anon 5:47
make sure you keep that house of yours on the market..i am sure some poor soul will come around and buy it…but don’t try to mess with the converted here…the indicators are pretty strong…your email is NOT!!
i meant your POSTING is NOT!!
“For those who think appraisal fraud is rare, and that lenders do not pressure appraisers to “hit the numbers..”
Hi Grim
Great work! really missed this blog when I was on vacation. You know I found that appraisal report before I even found this blog, when I was searching for some answers as to what the He@@ was going on with real estate, even making a living from it, it is still mind boggling to me what has gone one the last 5 or so years. I just came back from wildwood, the flipping there is out of control. You have flippers selling property’s for 100’grand more in same week they closed on it. So when the mortgage company for the gf looks at it it doesnt show sold in the last 6 months. Lot of shady stuff going on there.
KL
Forgive my ignorance but is there a way to view the listings that’ve sold using the MLS#
Hi All,
I really respect this blog and here’s a case in New Providence that I’d like your opinion on.
MLS #2279203
OLP: $605,000
LP: $585,000
I offered $500,000 and my offer was rejected. Shortly after it went under contract ( i don’t know for how much) and now it’s back on the market.
Now, do you think 500,000 is a fair amount for this house or am I dreaming???
“Re: MLS #2279203”
Comparable split levels in Livingston listing below $500k. I wouldn’t pay any more than than in New Providence either.
Six months to Housing Hell!
Watch tomorrows housing #’s
Coming out in the morning
from NAR.
Should be interesting.
Watch out below
Does anyone remember how the Real
Estate Agents put the hurry , make the offer?
Not today, learn how to walk away
and Low Ball them.
Just e-mailed the Summit, NJ Craigslist listing. Offered to talk at $650,000 for the 1.55 Million home in that TERRIBLE location. I’ll let everyone know if I get a response…
MLS #2279203 in New Providence
That house seems to be back in Attorney review. So someone finds the price fair. But its in a flood zone. If a house is beside a river or a stream, always, always check if its in a flood zone. That may be why it fell out of contract earlier.
scion111,
You get that house for 650K, have a party I’ll bring the beer.
It aint that bad…yet, good luck!!!
Friendly wager on the Existing Home Sales data due out tomorrow?
What are your estimates?
grim
Grim-
6.48 annual!
JM
anon 12:01,
I am eating a steak my beautiful wife just made me, so let me say this for now (I will explain more tomorrow….no…u don’t have me by the short and curlys either, I just like a good steak..he .he)
How can you tell when a goverment economist is lying? He opens his mouth….
When was there a REAL surplus budget? not counting when the government silently stole from social security to make a surplus budget….Robbing Peter to pay Paul (however that saying goes).
WHen was the last time they count employment numbers and not counted the military as employed??
Get the drift..
I am not a statitician (I just hire them). But, you can always tweak data to say what you wanna say, also people like to give the data they want you too see…while simulataneously sweeping data under the rug, that they don’t want you to see. All data should be taken with a grain of salt, even on this blog.
More to come, but now I gotta get back to my steak.
SAS
OT:
SAS
What cut and how served?
I’ve gotten hooked on the Luger’s thing – porterhouse, medium rare.
I know that there are plenty of great places out there, but I have a Frankie & Johnnie’s two blcoks away that does a very credible job.
I will always take a Steak Frites at some bistro, but they have to be “freedom” fries ;)
Do you know anything about Berkeley heights, noticed a lot of t/homes for sale, still overpriced.
“how do you respond to the fact that, in 30+ years of history (using OFHEO.GOV data) there has never been a correction, in 1 quarter, 1 year or 5 years of more than about 5% decline in NJ?”
Curious
7/24/2006 12:01:11 PM
Tell that to the person across my street that bought in 87 for $484K and sold when he was transfered for $325K in 90. I think 88 t0 about 95 was really bad. Can only hope this thing doesn’t hurt people worse this time.
SAS, maybe i’m being to ‘general’ about NJ… but we’ll see. eitherway, love the blog, love the info, and am sitting on sidelines till whatever filters out, filters out. thx.
Curious
would love to know what some of you think about the market in Wildwood Crest,NJ. we have been looking for a second home since March in the 500-600k range. Same stuff still on market now as in march. nothing moving.i like the “lowball” concept.looking for a new townhouse or newer single family. any advice?
This sale was the best so far
MLS# 2229002 – Montague, NJ
Original List Price $184,900
List Price $154,900
Sales Price $83,000 (46.4% Lowball, 55.1% off OLP)
Thats fantastic. More people should start bidding like this. The state would be such a better place
Hey , Anyone out there seriously interested in Buying or selling your house ? Go get listed in an MLS listing. Its very easy. and make sure to check all issues related to it in detail. And go for a flat fee listing and save yourself 2-3%. It is really great. I am very happy with the response I received for one of my property sale. I had listed with an MLS in Chicago. Actually I had a tough time deciding the best deal, coz I had such a lot of reply to my listing. They are very customer-friendly. Great Deal….. GO check it our and enjoy the sale of your property from the comfort of your home.
Another great lowball example:
Mls listing: 100702
Location: Wildwood Crest Jersey Shore
Original Asking Price: $625,000
Asking Price: $599,000
Sold For: $500,000
Brand new construction. Top of the line everything. 2800 sq. ft..