GSMLS – http://www.gsmls.com
(Garden State Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties)
9/27 – 19,108
10/11 – 19,084 (0.1% Decrease)
NJMLS – http://www.njmls.com
(New Jersey Multiple Listing Service)
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic Counties)
9/27 – 9,270
10/11 – 9,261 (Flat)
MLSGuide – http://www.mlsguide.com
Single Family Homes, Condo, Coop
(Hudson County)
9/27 – 2,774
10/11 – 2,787 (Flat)
(please note these are two week changes)
Wasn’t it about this time of year (last year) that we first started to see the inventory continue to rise and pending sales (under contract) start to decline?
I think will see inventory slowly decline by a very small amount with the usual jump come the new year and spring.
Rich
i know SO many people who pulled to relist in the spring. spring is going to see inventory historically way above usual quantity. couple that with the already 32k+ that’s still out there and we’re looking at the start of a cycle of competition that will only benefit would be buyers. sit tight folks, fall of ’07 is maybe when you want to start seriously looking for a deal.
cross off the next 3 years.
SAS
SAS,
Three years seems a bit much, don’t you think?
# years is way too long, look at how quickly it is unfolding now,the fundamentals were not here to justify the prices, and now the decline, the prices will decline faster onthe way down then up, no sticky cycle here, once we get into next Spring.
The next 12 months or so is when we will start to see some value, actually as early as next Spring, depends how low you want to get in at.
“couple that with the already 32k+ that’s still out there…”
Many always reference the 32k listings on GSMLS page. But keep in mind that this number includes vacant land, commercial/industrial and business properties.
Rich
Rich,
The number is way past 35K if you take the FSBO numbers into consideration. FSBO listings in my area have grown by 50% since March.
The flat rate of increase is because 400-500 listings expired at end of Sep.
JB,
I think this marks the 1 year anniversary of the weekly inventory update. If you have the data readily available, is there any chance you could include the YOY numbers in the weekly inventory update?
cross off the next 3 years.
3 years to the bottom of nominal price declines is probably reasonable. The last housing bubble, the dot com bubble and the 1929 crash all took roughly 3 years to hit the bottom.
I do think, however, that by next year there may be some good deals to be had as the reality of the decline really sinks in and people start to get behind on mortgage payments.
This year I think most sellers were simply stunned. Like buyers, many sellers have written-off 2006 as well. They plan to re-list in the spring, hoping the bottom is here and 2006 was just a fluke.
After all, this is what NAR would have you believe. Which, of course, begs the question; if the market will recover by spring, why sell now? If lots of people follow this advice, we should see inventory climb even higher in the spring.
yes, 3 years is being generous too.
Review your history. You will see it takes at least 3 years. We haven’t seen nothing yet. This is just the start of the lamb market. Yet, to be a bear market.
yes, you will find deals here and there, but they will be far and few.
I love what Shytown says “beware of the false bottom” he is right on with that one.
SAS
vb,
Good point, I’m sure the overall available residental number is higher.
BUT, that’s not my point. I’m just letting others know the the GSMLS number that others constantly post includes vacant, commercial/industrial and business properties.
3 years to bottom out is on the conservative side and yes you will find deals along the way but only few will be real deals. I frankly dont see any way the market could bottom out before 3 years. Creative financing and shenanigans will appear to prop us sales but those will be short lived.However, we have to go through those periods as well and these will be artificial supports which will be delaying the bottoming out process.
Just to qualify my previous posting, I think we will see 3 years of falling prices. After that, I think we will see a period of several years of flat prices where inflation outpaces appreciation.
I am still staying with my time fram of around another year. had there not been all the recklessness in this market, toxic financing etc. I woul agree with the 3 years or so.
But since that is not the case, I believe the decline will be swift. As far as peopel relisting in the Spring, I think you will see al ot of that going on.
However in my town there are still new listing coming on now 3 so far this week, and it ias almost mid-October, do not understand the thought process there, unless its hoping people want to be in by Christmas.
One final note, is that sellers truly do not understand that sadly NJ is really not that attractive a place to live nay more, taxes loss of jobs corruption, extreme fiscal problems.
I have to saty here for numerous reasons, but I will be factoring these things in, when I go to bid on a house.
OMG, I have to wait another 3 years to get in at the bottom? I have already waited 3 years only to see prices reach record levels. Thats 6 years of my life wasted by renting. Do you people realize thats $93,000 in rent that I will have thrown away?!? I feel like a sucker.
“Thats 6 years of my life wasted by renting. Do you people realize thats $93,000 in rent that I will have thrown away?!? I feel like a sucker.”
I don’t pay rent — it’s covered by the interest earned by NOT buying a bubble-priced house.
When it makes financial sense to buy, I’ll buy with 50% down.
But this is a sucker — threw away $300,000 in 12 months:
320 Lupine Way, Short Hills
1. Jun 2005 – Bought for $1,300,000
2. Oct 2005 – Put on market @ $1,295,000 (MLS 2204767)
3. Dec 2005 – Listing withdrawn
4. Mar 2006 – Put on market @ $1,198,500 (MLS 2261656)
5. May 2006 – Price dropped to $999,850
6. Jun 2006 – Under Contract (June 12)
7. Jun 2006 – Closed $999,999 (June 15)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15198805/
Heh, Greenspan: “I suspect that we are coming to the end of this downtrend…”
Right, for the first time in history a bust cycle will last 6 months:
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Yup, things now look normal…
I also agree that prices will move lower more quickly than past downturns.
The average American is much more savvy (but not smarter) than years back, and the manipulation of the markets by buying and selling at certain times is no longer the domain of a few, but includes a much wider, more vulnerable audience (with a shorter attention span)- who will react more quickly.
Look at the stock frenzy of the lates 90’s – it included many more amatuers than previous stock run-ups. This latest real estate increase includes many more “normal” people who expected to get rich. There were even TV shows about it!!! People in this country are obsessed with living the good life, and are jumping in way beyond their means to do so.
Therefore, I feel that this time, we can see unprecidented (and unpredictable) behavior from this group as the softening continues. And this doesn’t even account for the fact that the real prices are higher than ever (compared to incomes)and the new construction inventory build-up so insane.
I am anticipating a new type of behavior, which would see selling prices drop quicker and sit for the usual 5 – 7 years (or more). But when will the asking prices drop? – that will cause the fast slide…
bubbblewatcher: Excellent post, could not have said it better.