From the Daily Record:
Home prices in Morris rise 11.6%
BY WARREN BOROSON
John and Tonae Veltri of Montville put their Longview Estates townhouse on the market July 25 for $750,000 — what homes in their upscale development had been selling for the year before.
Nothing.
They lowered the price to $699,000. Then to $629,000. Then to $625,000.
“We didn’t want to believe that prices had dropped so much,” Tonae Veltri explained.
Finally, after firing their agent, who never seemed to be available, they have cut their asking price to $599,000 –$151,000 below their original asking price.
“We’re finally getting good traffic,” Tonae Veltri said. “It’s now the cheapest home in the development.”
While home prices in Morris County still showed an overall increase for the past year, lately there seems to be an epidemic of “price reduced” signs throughout North Jersey.
Low-ball offers — insultingly below the asking prices — have replaced multiple offers. There’s a glut of unsold houses.
“Four years ago, there were 20 buyers for one house, and now there are 20 houses for one or two buyers,” said George Szatkowski, of Properties Unlimited in Rockaway.
…
Gary Large, manager of the Denville office of Prudential New Jersey Properties, said, “We’re in the middle of a correction.”He said he doesn’t want to blame the media, but added, “There’s been so much talk about a bubble bursting that it became a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Buyers became timid about buying.
His advice for sellers: If you have no good reason to sell now, hold off. If you must sell, make the price competitive.
In any case, the decline in house prices that he’s seen “is a healthy thing,” he said.
…
What advice would Tonae Veltri give to other sellers?“Get your ducks in a row,” she said. “Set a realistic price on your home. We didn’t want to believe that prices had dropped so much.”
Hey it’s Warren Boringson. I wonder if he still lurks here?
Anyway I have a problem with these guys in the RE industry talking about how the talk of a bubble bursting is somehow self fulfilling. They never complained about the news attention during the appreciation part of this cycle, even when it was not matching the fundamentals. All I have to say is they are whiners, they had it good for the last 5 or so years. And as far as the media they only just started talking about it.
jb,
The weekend thread seems to be locked. I’m unable to post on that thread :(
jb,
There is something wrong with the weekend discussion, the posts are no longer sticking at the end. The time change must have thrown the system in a disarrary :(
My posts ended up with numbers [310-312]. I was posting in reference to what is now post 316.
The time of post on all posts past 312 have also changed!!
Metro,
What cave do you live in? The bubble’s been discussed in financial media & print forums since Sept. 2005 and it took less than a year to materialize. And Otteau has been reporting on steadily growing inventory since early Spring 2006.
Enjoy your day.
AMS,
I mean widely, the talk in the MSM was always up. They did not really start talking about “the bubble” until the summer’s bad #s. Now you don’t see a day without talk of correction, bubble, overinflated prices etc.
The economist wrote on it in 2005 just after the Time magazine article that was crowing about the appreciations seen in many markets. I will stand by assertion they are just coming around to the idea of “the bubble”.
BTW, AMS are you in the RE industry?
It’s most certainly the time change, make sure your computers are set to the proper time.
jb
I don’t have my comparative data with me, but prices in Monmouth/Ocean appear to be on the move downward again.
I’ve been tracking median ask for SFHs and TH/Cs on the MLS since mid-June. By early September ask-prices had dropped slightly (about 5 percent), were they became range bound until this week.
SFH’s in E. Monmouth and S. Monmouth have held, but there was a drop in W. Monmouth, and Ocean Cty. There is definitely more new construction in the dropped areas and I think the drops by the builders are putting more downward pressure on prices.
I was very surprised by the Ocean Cty drop because their seemed to be a lot of depth to the median price of $360K. It took a lot of shifting to get it down to $352K.
Surprisingly, it Condo prices have held (actually rose in recent weeks) there.
The median ask price across Monmouth County is still around $500K.
This “housing” thing became very personal to me even as a homeowner. My wife and I went through a lot of sh*t with realtors and sellers from 1999 to early 2001 before we got “lucky” when we finally purchased in a private deal.
I have ZERO sympathy for the pig realtors and the pig sellers who had no problem raking people over the stones for the last 6 years. I know they’re not all like that, I realize that there are a lot of sincere people but there is a sizeable group of those who have ZERO apptitude when it comes to business, finance and people skills. ZERO!
To those I say, good luck. You ate at the trough like the greedy pigs that you are, lying to some honest people with young families merely looking for a nice home in a nice neighborhood at a decent price. I’m a capitalist at heart but there is such a thing as good business, rewarding results and ethical transactions that all sides can feel good about. Read the speeches of John Bogle to get an idea of what I’m talking about.
So now, as the wheel slowly turns, I say, wonderful. I hope all the speculators enjoyed the run because it….is…..over.
…and to paraphrase another person who posts at this blog: BOOOYAAAAA!!!!
Anyway I have a problem with these guys in the RE industry talking about how the talk of a bubble bursting is somehow self fulfilling. They never complained about the news attention during the appreciation part of this cycle, even when it was not matching the fundamentals.
Metro,
That is because the media feeds off doom and gloom. They rarely will report on anything positive in any arena. I do believe that all the media attention on “the bursting bubble” does have an impact. At least for me anyway. I do not understand all the complex economics pertained to RE as do most people so we rely an what we hear through media or through websites like this or from around the water cooler at work. If it is good info or bad info. Who knows? All I know is that it is enough to scare me away from buying right now.
Low-ball offers — insultingly below the asking prices — have replaced multiple offers. There’s a glut of unsold houses.
Why is it that an offer well below asking price is referred as “insulting”; as if to say the buyer is slime? At the same time, a home priced well above anything realistic simply “isn’t priced right”?
“there is such a thing as good business, rewarding results and ethical transactions that all sides can feel good about.”
gary, I agree completely and that’s why I think this downturn is going to be doomsday for the realtor profession.
in their greed, they completely threw ethics out the window. it is not enough to say there are merely a few bad apples– if this were a true profession the responsible realtors would have a duty to impose discipline.
you can search long and hard, but you will still not find a realtor who would tell a client that now is a bad time to buy or not to use an IO loan.
public respect for realtors is in the gutter– basically below any other profession other than used car salesmen. they have proven that they are unwilling/unable to police themselves, and their complete lack of public respect will make them easy targets for regulation once the political backlash for this downturn hits.
Do these higher average Morris Cty sale prices in Warren’s article reflect higher prices or just more higher priced homes selling than lower priced ones?
I’m not sure how useful these stats are, considering they don’t actually measure the sale price of the same home over time.
italics, don’t you just love ’em?
Close your HTML tags!
jb
you can search long and hard, but you will still not find a realtor who would tell a client that now is a bad time to buy or not to use an IO loan
**Bullsh*t**
I have said it many times, to many a client. Just came in from a long ride to west jersey with an associate/partner and a client, we told her all the way home – Wait – dont buy lets see what happens in the spring.
Will she wait? – we don’t know.
Stop blaming realtors, with all the information that can be had out there right now, people have got to be responsible for there own choices.
KL
Rhyming where aboauts in West Jersey?
“with all the information that can be had out there right now, people have got to be responsible for there own choices.”
yes, people are responsible for their own choices, but realtors hold themselves out to the public as fiduciaries who abide by a strict code of ethics. It is good that you take this seriously, but many of your colleagues do not and there appear to be no consequences for this. if realtors ethical code were serious, there would be a penalty for falsely advising a client for one’s own gain
And on second though I do apologize for painting with too broad a brush.
yes, BUT realtors give misinformation and misrepresentation, therefore their “clients” don’t always make the wisest of choices.
Hate to break it to ya.
Maybe YOU personally, don’t do that, but lets get honest, you know that 99% do.
Cheerio :)
SAS
The fact that builders and realtors are now placing ads saying it’s the “best time” to buy says that they are not ethical to the degree of giving proper advice. Just selling..
They should instead be advertising:
“it is a good time to buy if you are OK with the prices, because, unlike a year ago, you have a choice and some negotiating power, and in fact may be able to buy a house for 2005 prices.”
..Not because it will continue to appreciate, OR not because you will be the smartest, etc etc..
Wow, so much to respond to & dinner must be served within the next 1/2 hour…
Metro,
You have a right to maintain your assertion that “bubble talk” is new in the media. BUT I’m not refuting my opinion that the bubble was a concern as far back as Oct. 2005 BECAUSE of the incredibly inflated prices and moreover, the surge in multiple offer scenarios. You’re correct in your statement that the subject is all domineering in the media now & everyday brings more, BUT anyone who had an interest in R/E back then was tuned into the more forums that addressed the issue.
I disagree w/the idea that the media has created this situation. My leanings are towards a) lenders & exotic loans b) realtors c) buyers. I can’t even point a finger at homeowners because who would reasonably refuse (over-the)top dollar for their home?
Anyway, that’s my response. Sorry I took so long…had an open house today.
And I guess I answered your closing inquiry… :)
A
Skep-tic
In response to post #13, I believe teh the downturn will be a fabulous filtering tool b/c many will be forced out of the industry due to the low to no income possibilities.
It only takes 2 weeks to get a license to sell r/e. Also, unfortunately, NJ is a state which does NOT impose continuing education standards on its agents. That in itself should be a mandate.
As for policing itself, I make a point to counsel folks who have been screwed around to report the incident to: http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/remnu.shtml
Oh & guess what, I have a customer I’ve been working w/for the past 8 months…just upped his price range to $420K from $370…wants to live in the new place for just 2 years…you better believe I advised him to hold off. Know why?
BECAUSE THE BETTER REALTORS REALIZE THAT R/E IS A PEOPLE BUSINESS NOT A PROPERTY BUSINESS. You’re dealing w/peoples LIVES. Call me GREEDY. I AM! b/c I want his business, his sister’s business, his parent’s business and all of his friend’s business & I’m not going to get it from screwing his life up over a misguided r/e deal. K?
This blog has been a real eye opening experience and not for the good. I’m mortified by the reputation Realtors have overall.
Whatever. I love what I do & I think I do it well & hope to continue to stay in the business until I die.
Bring it on!
One more before dinner….
Response to post #19.
Article 12 of the code of ethics covers that. If the public doesn’t report inappropriate treatment, it’s just that…a useless article.
http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/remnu.shtml
AMS
AMS,
I’m glad you feel that way. It is easy to get caught up with criticizing the worst offenders in any industry while forgetting that there are others who do their jobs well and with pride. Again, I apologize for generalizing too much. I hope you’ll continue to contribute to this blog. It is great to have all diff’t views on the market represented.
AMS,
Is there a way in which consumers can determine if realtors have had complaints lodged against them?
This is straight from the website for the NJ Dept. of Banking & Insurance that governs NJ R/E.
For general inquiries regarding investigations, subdivided land sales, and regulatory/enforcement issues, contact:
NJ Real Estate Commission
PO Box 328
Trenton, NJ 08625-0328
Phone: 609-292-8300
FAX: 609-292-0944
E-mail:realestate@dobi.state.nj.us
AMS,
I agree with you that certain circles of the media, specifically blog pegged the top at august 2005. But that was wildly speculative. I agree that the loan issuers are the problem. I hope you had a good day!
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/10/29/asiastox.monday.reut/
The Nikkei average fell 1.5 percent to its lowest level in more than two weeks on Monday as a retreat in U.S. stocks after data showing weak quarterly growth in the world’s biggest economy dragged down exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp.
realtors should lick public’s as* for their sins. during past 2 yrs, my realtor had been advised me to buy, very earnestly, saying that “price of houses never go down” and “you will be priced out of the market soon if you don’t buy now”. Now we have downturn and price is going down, my realtor called me the other day , advising me to buy, saying “now is the perfect time to buy, you have a lot of houses to choose from and rate is still low”. She totally forgot that “price never goes down” bullsh*t!
I agree that we should be ultimately responsible for our actions, but there is no doubt realtors are dirty scondrels and they are willing to say anything to get that 5 cent commission. They are like the drug dealer on the block trying to convince people to buy drugs. They would say, “drugs are great stress reliever”, “drugs are good for your mind”,”drugs can help you perform”………
When I see a realtor, I always think she/he should come and lick my as*, so I don’t have to buy towels.
half a million for a townhouse? it is really insulting. Do you think we are as stupid as they are?
I would put $150,000 for that townhouse for which the drunk owner was asking for $750,000.
I think all the sellers need to have a cop render them a sobriety test before they make up the numbers.
Dead-man….where’s a good Ricky Roma when you need him?
“Low-ball offers — insultingly below the asking prices — have replaced multiple offers.”
What about insulting ask prices? Don’t be afraid to go in for the kill. No remorse, no shame, it’s your family’s money at stake.
A business transaction, nothing personal.
20 Great Hills Terrace
Short Hills
MLS 2269098
Apr 20, 2006 – $1,199,000
Jun 27, 2006 – $1,075,000
Jul 08, 2006 – $995,000
Jul 14, 2006 – $849,000
Aug 10, 2006 – Attorney Review
Aug 31, 2006 – Under Contract
Sep 25, 2006 – Closed @ $772,000
Some snooty realtor would have said “I can’t present that offer” — yet look at what reality brings.
Ignore ask prices (wish prices), bring sellers back to reality.
It is interesting that Mrs. Veltri paid $291k in 1996 for this condo, according to tax records. Guess reducing down to $599k is a real hardship.
AMS writes:
“BECAUSE THE BETTER REALTORS REALIZE THAT R/E IS A PEOPLE BUSINESS NOT A PROPERTY BUSINESS. You’re dealing w/peoples LIVES. Call me GREEDY. I AM! b/c I want his business, his sister’s business, his parent’s business and all of his friend’s business & I’m not going to get it from screwing his life up over a misguided r/e deal. K?”
Which should be standard procedure for anyone belonging to the NAR and it’s realtor “code of ethics.” But how many realtors share your outlook? How many relist properties under a new MLS # in your office?
“This blog has been a real eye opening experience and not for the good. I’m mortified by the reputation Realtors have overall.”
For most realtors, it’s well-earned. If the ‘good apples’ don’t start weeking out the ‘bad apples’ and if the NAR “code of ethics” remains nothing but a marketing slogan, the sentiment will grow. Technology is not only squeezing out the need for a middle-man to find a house, it’s also allowing people to converse with each other to solidify and spread that fact.
weeking out = weeding out
“The latest numbers from the Garden State Multiple Listing Service, provided by Weichert, Realtors, show that the average sale price in Morris County rose 11.63 percent in the first three quarters of 2006 compared with the same period last year.”
Seems like a strange way to calculate it to me. It’s not Sept ’06 vs Sept ’05.
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