From Marketwatch:
Toll Brothers cuts delivery guidance, doesn’t spot recovery
Toll Brothers , the Horsham, Pa.-based luxury home builder, cut its delivery guidance for the next fiscal year and said it doesn’t see a recovery in sight. But it also said that the market should improve more rapidly than generally anticipated once the current inventory overhang is absorbed and consumer sentiment turns positive. For fiscal 2007, it expects to deliver between 6,300 and 7,300 homes, vs. previous guidance between 7,000 to 8,000 homes. Fourth-quarter ending Oct. 31 home building revenue dropped 10% to $1.81 million, its backlog dropped 25% to $4.49 billion and signed contracts dropped 55% to $710 million. It will take a fourth-quarter charge between $50 million and $100 million, or 18 cents to 36 cents a share, on reducing land positions.
From Primezone:
Toll Brothers Reports Preliminary 4th Qtr and FYE 2006 Home Building Revenues, Backlog and Contracts
Robert I. Toll, chairman and chief executive officer, stated: “FY 2006 has certainly been a very tough and challenging year. It is worth noting that, atypically, this housing market is weak in an environment of low interest rates and low unemployment. We believe weak buyer confidence is keeping many customers on the sidelines.
“We continue to look for signs that a recovery is imminent but can’t yet say that one is in sight. We see some signs of pent-up demand when we have special sales events or new community openings. And in some markets, good weeks are interspersed amongst weaker ones. With continued growth in households and population and fewer lots than usual making their way through the approval process, we believe that, once the current inventory overhang is absorbed and consumer sentiment turns positive, the market should improve more rapidly than is generally anticipated.
From Reuters:
Beazer 4th-qtr profit falls 44 pct
Beazer Homes USA Inc.,one of the largest U.S. builders of single-family homes, on Tuesday said fiscal fourth-quarter profit declined 44 percent, hurt by lowered demand for new homes and higher cancellations.
Net income for Atlanta-based Beazer fell to $91.9 million, or $2.19 per share, from $164.4 million, or $3.61, a year earlier. Revenue rose 4 percent to $1.88 billion.
Beazer closed on 6,411 homes in the quarter, up 1 percent from a year earlier, but new orders tumbled 58 percent to 2,064 homes. The company said it reduced its workforce by about 1,000 jobs, or 25 percent, in September and October in light of expected reductions in sales volume.
From Marketwatch:
WCI’s quarterly net income plunges 73%
WCI Communities Inc., a builder of homes and tower residences, Tuesday said its third-quarter net income fell 73% from a year earlier to $10.7 million, or 25 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had forecast profit of $8.5 million, or 18 cents a share. Revenue fell 31% to $427.2 million, the company said. WCI shares closed Monday up 9 cents to $15.27
From Reuters:
Toll Brothers sees revenue down 10 percent
Toll Brothers Inc. on Tuesday said it expected to report a 10 percent drop in quarterly home building revenue, below Wall Street estimates, on higher-than-anticipated cancellation rates in the Orlando, Florida, and Northern California areas.
Preliminary numbers show home building revenue of $1.81 billion for the fourth quarter ended on October 31. Analysts on average were expecting $1.87 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.
The luxury home builder said preliminary numbers indicated its quarter-end backlog fell 25 percent to $4.49 billion, while contracts fell 55 percent to $710 million.
The company said its quarterly contract total suffered from a higher-than-normal 585 cancellations, one-fourth of which came in the Orlando and Northern California markets.
They can’t hide it anymore. The numbers don’t
lie.
“It is worth noting that, atypically, this housing market is weak in an environment of low interest rates and low unemployment.”
There he goes again!!! Bob, you are right. Just come out and say the market is imploding on its own. What the hell will happen if the economy turns???
Clot,
Tol-
-earnings lower than expected
-higher cancellation rates
-trying feverishly to renegotiate land deals.
Do we buy???
Good recap:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?siteid=mktw&guid={7338A3DA-EA5E-4F79-B7BE-EC746AFF36AB}
Let me try that again:
Housing recovery on hold: Toll Brothers
“Toll Brothers Inc. early Tuesday said contracts for new homes fell 57% in its fiscal fourth quarter from the previous year”
57%, that’s 57%, kind of like the action of its stock, from the highs!! I hope you all realize the magnitude of this. A fall of epic proportions!! One for the history books.
Merrill downgrades DHI (DR Horton) this morning.
jb
Note:
These discussions are for entertainment purposes only and do not constitute a recommendataion to buy or sell securities.
jb
From Bloomberg:
Toll’s Revenue Drops 10 Percent as Customers Cancel
Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. builder of luxury houses, said fiscal fourth-quarter homebuilding revenue fell 10 percent and more than 580 customers canceled orders. The shares dropped as much as 3.5 percent.
Homebuilding sales declined to $1.81 billion in the three months ended Oct. 31 from $2.01 billion a year earlier, Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Toll said today in a statement. The company cut its forecast for the number of homes it plans to build in the next year and is also reevaluating plans to buy more land.
Toll’s orders have plummeted as a drop in demand has boosted the nation’s inventory of unsold homes to a record. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said today “weak buyer confidence is keeping many customers on the sidelines” and there are no signs that the U.S. housing market will recover soon.
[emphasis added -jb]
Off topic:
Feds probe $4 trillion bond market
Government regulators meet with big banks to prevent abuse in bond repurchases.
“I can’t tell if this will lead to more housecleaning, but my instincts are that if they’re bringing people in, this is a prophylactic sort of measure.”
http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/06/news/bondprobe/index.htm?postversion=2006110619
If you want real entertainment, listen to their call today at 2PM. It is very easy to log on, just go to their website and provide a minimal amount of information.
“We continue to look for signs that a recovery is imminent but can’t yet say that one is in sight,” Chairman and Chief Executive Robert I. Toll said in a statement.
Common,
He’ll see the light soon. Unfortunately, for him, he will not be happy with what he sees!!
Toll Brothers Chief Executive Robert Toll said in a statement. “It is worth noting that, atypically, this housing market is weak in an environment of low interest rates and low unemployment.”
Seems like housing has choked, perhaps we should now let off the pedal.
what was toll’s original 2006 forecast? Wasn’t it something like 10,300 homes?