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Hey in case you’re wondering, the housing bust is over. At least according to David Lereah.
Today Lereah released his first prediction for 07 and guess what, he sees price appreciation for existing homes! I know you’re stunned.
Actually, the weasel actually does predict a price decline for new homes, but that’s for this year (1.1%). Next year, GREAT NEWS! Prices for new homes will rise 1.7 percent.
His 06 new home price drop is actually more than 5 times worse than it was a month ago when he predicted a 20 basis point (100 basis points = 1%) decline for new home sales.
You have to admire his sunny disposition.
More from David Lereah’s prediction (in case you’re wondering this is one of my favorite reports):
“New-home sales, likely to drop 16.8 percent to 1.07 million in 2006, are forecast to fall another 8.7 percent next year to 975,000, largely due to a significant reduction in construction by builders.” (emphasis mine)
Keep in mind that this guy’s job title is “Chief Economist” for the NAR. I’m wondering how he ever passed econ 101 if he believes that demand will decline because of a decline in supply.
Actually, I’m being unfair, but it’s only because he is being dishonest. Or at least he can’t express himself clearly.
I would guess (I could be wrong) that Lereah is somehow including in his calculation the resale of existing “new” homes for which the contract has been canceled. Because of the way the Census Bureau counts, new homes that were included in the sales count but had their contract canceled (and there have been a lot of those lately) can’t be counted again as new homes when they are actually sold. At least that’s the way I understand it.
BTW, in January 06 Lereah’s prediction was for 1.21M new home sales. I don’t think we even finish the year at his current prediction. We may actually drop under 1M this year, it’s going to be close.
From Marketwatch:
Housing correction has further to run, realtors say
The housing market correction has further to run, with new-home construction expected to fall another 12% next year, a real estate industry group said Friday in an updated forecast for 2007.
While the market for existing homes will probably flatten out, the new-home market will probably continue to slow through next year, said David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
Sales prices are expected to rise slightly. “Given the huge gains in home values during the housing boom, and this year’s rise in housing inventory, overall price gains this year and next will be modest,” Lereah said. Median existing-home prices are expected to rise 1.7% next year, while new-home prices are expected to rise 1.3%.
Housing starts will probably fall about 12% next year to 1.63 million after falling 11% this year, he said. Starts totaled 2.07 million in 2005.
Unrealtor,
Since your here, I thought I would take this opportunity to allow a fellow Republican and the numbers explain where our current federal budget deficit comes from.
“But conservatives such as Sen. Tom Coburn [R-OK] believe Republicans need to change the pork-barrel culture that encouraged the use of public dollars for personal and political gain. Congressional “earmarks” have exploded on the GOP’s watch, up by 700 percent since 1998, Coburn said, (my emphasis) while domestic spending is up nearly 50 percent since 2001.” (WaPo page A31 11/09/06)
In Fiscal Year 2006, the U. S. Government spent $406 Billion of your money on interest payments* to the holders of the National Debt.
Source: http://www.federalbudget.com
In 2000 the federal gov. spent $215B* on interest.
*http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy00/guide02.html
Borrowing so much money that your interest payments basically double in 5 years (while interest rates are declining dramatically) just doesn’t strike me as fiscally responsible, but then I’m not a Republican.
Somehow Coburn doesn’t seem to connect the deficit to 9/11.
Here’s something else to think about on this nice November weekend:
Experts Predict Wave of Bankruptcies
http://www.cfo.com/printable/article.cfm/8135376/c_8158206?f=options
The money quote:
“I don’t think it’s going to be an event that’s the trigger,” stated John Penn, a partner at law firm Haynes and Boone, “I think it’s going to be more a realization that credit quality matters,”
Also:
“…said Anders Maxwell, managing director of financial advisory firm Peter J. Solomon Co., during a Webinar announcing the survey results. “The American consumer is arguably the weakest link in the credit chain.”
Maxwell added that the creditworthiness of the average American corporation is weaker than it was 15 to 20 years ago. “That is masked today by staggering liquidity,” he said.”
More from Crazy Davey’s Crystal Ball:
“We now have the most favorable market for home buyers in several years, and most sellers – who’ve been in their home for a normal period of homeownership – are still seeing very healthy returns on their investment. Conditions for buyers have improved because sellers are flexible now and mortgage interest rates are near historic lows. The market promises to be more balanced between buyers and sellers by early spring, supporting future price growth,” Lereah said.
Define “normal period of home ownership.”
Also, from Lereah’s 10/28/05 prediction for 06:
Existing-home sales…are projected to decline 3.5 percent in 2006 to 6.86 million. New-home sales, … are expected to fall 4.5 percent to 1.24 million next year. “
Some additional data from the Ministry of Information..
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/CurrentForecast.pdf/$FILE/CurrentForecast.pdf
Another reason to be careful and wait
Cocktails but No Tower
By TROY MCMULLEN
November 10, 2006; Page W1
Full article in Weekend section of the WSJ
With once-hot condominium markets across the country in sharp decline and many real-estate professionals predicting a further weakening, some developers are facing more than a glut of unsold inventory. Angry condo buyers from Boca Raton, Fla., to San Diego are taking them to court, alleging everything from breach of contract to fraud.
Some of the lawsuits claim that the amenities featured in glossy marketing brochures and model apartments never made it into the final product. Others involve much-hyped projects that went bust, leaving hundreds of buyers with contracts for condos that will never materialize.
In his complaint, the 41-year-old attorney alleges that when he moved in at the end of 2004, he found defects such as screen doors installed backwards and water pipes that leaked. The complaint also alleges that the developer misrepresented the size of the apartment. Mr. Bedi says an architect he hired found it to be about 220 square feet smaller than the approximately 1,684 square feet advertised in the offering plan “I paid a lot of money for what I thought would be a brand-new home,” Mr. Bedi says. Instead, he says, he has spent thousands of dollars just on repairs and other labor.
You’ve got buyers out there who paid one and two million dollars or more for a condominium and are now dealing with everyday construction defects,” says Ross Feinberg, a California attorney who specializes in construction litigation.
Sales of existing condominiums in Miami fell 45% in September compared with the same 2005 period, the Florida Association of Realtors says. In San Diego, year-on-year sales of existing condos were down 41% in September. A similar story is unfolding in Las Vegas, where condo and townhouse sales were off 45% in October compared with a year earlier. “These markets were essentially propped up by speculators.
Modest price appreciation
WHAT A BUNCH OF BULL!!!!!!
HOW ABOUT D-E-P-R-E-C-I-A-T-I-O-N SHILLS!
Lindsey said:
“Today Lereah released his first prediction for 07 and guess what, he sees price appreciation for existing homes! ..”
..”You have to admire his sunny disposition.”
He’s a classic Republican!
… and now, like others, is a loser :-D
disclaimer: I don’t vote; I’m neither a rep or dem
first ONE ON THIS BOARD THAT BUYS A HOUSE AT 50% OFF OF 2005 PEAK PRICES GETS A DINNER FOR TWO RESTAURANT OF CHOICE UP TO $200.
PAID FOR BY BOOOOOOYAAAAAAA BOB
GRIMSTER WILL BE THE ONE TO CONFIRM.
SO GO AHEAD BLEED’EM DRY!
I AM ABSOLUTELY FED UP WITH THE BS SPEWED BY NAR LEREAH AND THESE UNETHICAL TURDS.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAA
Bob
OR A $200 GIFT CARD TO A STORE OF YOUR CHOICE.
Anyway I can stick it to such an arrogant industry.
Let’s get the prices collapsing before a few last fools sign their life away to being a debt slave!
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Anyone have a running list of all of Lereah’s predictions?
David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist said:
“Sales prices are expected to rise slightly. …Median existing-home prices are expected to rise 1.7% next year, while new-home prices are expected to rise 1.3%.”
Noriel Roubini, NYU Economics Professor said:
“The sharp fall in new home prices – down 10% already – is the beginning of a much bigger downward adjustment in prices ahead, at least 30%. The only thing that is going up in the housing market now is deliquencies, defaults and foreclosures.”
Slight difference of opinion? Let’s see, who has more credibility? Lereah, who’s livelihood depends upon that NAR paycheck, and who has been consistently wrong? Or the academic, who’s reputation and resulting paycheck depends on being correct, wherever the chips fall, and has been consistently correct? hmmmmm…
And still, the media goes to Lereah first for forecasts of the housing market, paralleling the deference most consumers give their realtors as “authorities” on the RE market, instead of realizing they are SALES people who desperately need you and me to buy houses — or they will go broke. Perhaps it is because the reporters are just a reflection of the public at large.
Homer didnt get the house, although it was quite comical.
She asked me if I was for real, I said yeah is your client for real asking that much. I said that house needs agleast 200K worth of work. I probably could buy a foreclosure in better condition. She was like well thats less than what the clint paid. I said well its not my fault that she let her place turn into a dump and is disgusting. I said I didnt make her tear apart her house and not put it back together nor did I tell her to let everything fall apaprt and rig everything together. Who the Heck put aluminum foil over an entire cooktop?? I mean the house would be nice with money put into it, I told her thats all it was worth so she can take or leave my offer. She said that she will leave my offer. I said fine and hung up. I dont even think she asked the client but whatever I will go find me another place to go lowballing on.
I mean its hard to describe how awful the place was. I am not being a jerk becuase I didnt get the house, I could care less there are many others out there for me to choose from. But if anyone wants a good laugh they should go see it. Plus the stupid realtor barley spoke English and only would call me on the phone even though I insisted she contact me via email. Its hard for me to be on the phone.
The house has been rotting on the makret for close to 280 days and it will continue to rot another 280 days. Plus with the amount of work that needs to be done and home prices dropping I don’t see any bank approving anyone for mortage for that dump. She either needs to drastically drop the price, fix the place up or just take it off the market. The house is at:
18 Roland Rd
Pequonnock, NJ
Plus its in flood zone, although it hasnt flooded since the early 80’s there still thats just another expense to tack on every month.
Hang in there, Homer; there’ll be others. You are to be commended for trying.
http://www.northerntrust.com/pws/jsp/display2.jsp?XML=pages/nt/0601/1138283681241_6.xml&TYPE=interior
“Near a bottom for Housing”
Homer, the agent is required to present the offer to her client (the same person who no doubt priced the house). Have you thought about reporting the agent and/or getting in touch with the owners directly and offering to work with them directly after their contract ends?
If it’s not written, it’s not an offer!
jb
Homer…
After re-evaluation last year, 2006 taxes on that house are 6,061. You really want to pay that for that piece of crap? I live in Pequannock, so I am familiar with the area. Houses in Pequannock are very overpriced…not to mention the taxes.
Today Lereah released his first prediction for 07 and guess what, he sees price appreciation for existing homes! I know you’re stunned.
What a shock. He predicts not too much appreciation, as to encourage sellers to pull back listings and wait until next year, but just enough to let buyers know everything will be okay with their purchase. A real live Goldilocks housing market!
Obviously a self serving attempt to reinvigorate commissions for his minions of agents.
Plus its in flood zone, although it hasnt flooded since the early 80’s there still thats just another expense to tack on every month.
The threat of flooding is more than just an annoying monthly expense. The 1894 flood was devistating. I would never suggest buying in the flood zone.
How about a little more coverage on the Title Insurance Industry — and their useless policy.
The majority of homeowner claims in the title industry are over boundry disputes. They’ll come out and do a free survey for you. These guys don’t even know what a claim is.
At least the realtor sells the thing for you. The title company brings virtually nothing to the table, but has their hand out in every transaction. ( about the only thing of value that they provide is the title binder which gives a quick summary of the property’s history)
The blame isn’t with the underwriter. The costs are sucked up by the title agency which is another high cost middleman. For every $1000 in premium, about $900 goes to the title agency to cover their bloated costs (commissions, overhead, etc…) People are now getting tagged for $2500 plus routinely by these clowns in title. Enough is enough. Do away with the agency structure and costs will come down. This isn’t 1955 anymore.
http://davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com/
Lereah Wath Blog
If it’s not written, it’s not an offer!
If you were truly serious you should have put it in writing and gave a deposit, as I said in a earlier post.
The agent has no proof of your offer, to present.
KL
One of the prior threads has got me thinking about taxes and consolidation. Unfortunately all this thinking is giving me a headache, but I did want to share two thoughts:
1) Homes as investment – Thinking about homes (and specifically homes to live in, and not real estate generally or as a business) as an investment is not a terrible idea, but I think it’s a tough hurdle. I’ve read that the historical average annual home appreciation rate in the US is somewhere between 2 and 5 percent. Not sure about the rest of NJ, but the areas of Bergen County that I’ve looked at seem to be in the 2-3 percent range for property taxes. Add to that, the interest on the mortgage, and you’ve pretty much wiped out any appreciation, even after any tax “deductions”. That’s before you even include necessary maintenance and upkeep. And, if you include state & local taxes (compared to living in a lower or no income tax state), you’d almost definitely be looking at an annual “loss”. Even if your property “doubled in value” over time, that’s a price comparison which neglects the costs that have been paid over that time.
On the other hand, you need a place to live, and that’ll cost you money whether you rent or buy. I think you should buy somewhere you want to live and pay a reasonable (to you) price and appreciate what you got, but don’t expect it to be an appreciating investment, absent a bubble environment.
2) Consolidation of municipal functions – In addition to the opposition raised by government employees who would lose their jobs or status because of a consolidation, I think this would result in a classic class conflict. I’ve already seen people post on this issue on both sides, but to state it bluntly: it’s pretty clear to me that the folks in the wealthy towns who hypothetically have “the best of everything” would rather continue to pay high taxes that directly support their school & police & other municipal functions than pay slightly lower taxes which are then diverted to support poorer towns. One could claim that the funds from one district will stay in that district, but I don’t see how that’s realistic. If you have one police department, would you issue bullet-proof vests to those officers that patrol the rich town, but not to those that patrol the poor town? If you have one school district, do you give computers and new books to the kids in the rich town but not the poor town? In sum, is there a realistic scenario in which a rich town does “better” by consolidating? Particularly if there’s a progressive application of the property tax (ie, little or no relief for high property values), there seems to be little or no incentive for rich towns to consolidate.
Interesting report about shoddy construction of new houses, including some in NJ.
From ABC News: (video)
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/finance?ch=289021&cl=1160747&lang=en‘
Italics off
off?
Euro yield curve inversion? Very interesting!
From Bloomberg:
Euro rates mimic U.S., sparking global slowdown fear
Interest rates in Europe are starting to mimic U.S. rates, raising the question of whether a U.S.-led economic slowdown is already impacting global growth, analysts and economists said Friday.
Euro zone short-term interest rates briefly topped long-term rates for the first time in over six years on Thursday, creating a so-called yield curve inversion. On Friday, they returned to stand slightly above short-term rates.
I gave Lereah a little bit of credit after the NAR issued their price decline press releases.
But after the $40m propaganda stunt? How can you trust anything that Lereah or the NAR has to say?
How do you distinguish between advertising and economic analysis?
jb
Ya know for what I want to pay I might as well buy a forclosure. I mean people have told me not to buy a forclosed homes becuase they are usually in bad condition. Well if someone is selling a dump of a house for 385k maybe forclosures are not that bad. Although my approch would be to knock on there door and offer to buy it before it goes to auction. But I think I should get a book on it just to find out good approches.
I know if its not in writing its not an offer, but apparntly the listing agent knows what she will take for the house. But hey no biggie, kinda a little disappointed, but I had fun doing it. Plus her house can just sit for another 280 days. For the condition its in I dont think people will be lining up around the block to buy the place. I had asked her via email if she wanted me to sign paperts for my offer. Like I said when she called me back she said was I for real and her client would not take that low of an offer. Its listed through century 21 urban agency. Its no wonder her house will not sell.
To Homer Simpson or anybody else who can answer:
If i do not have cash, but I am pre-approved by my bank how do I buy foreclosure – it seems like with sellers being stubborn, there will be the only way to buy a house in 1.5years – through foreclosure auction.
so, CAN i buy a house with my bank loan and what do I do for it???
As Homer said if I have to buy wrecked un-updated 2bedroom colonial for 385K or foreclosure for 180K, guess which one I will buy???
it’s very hard for both sides not to bring emotion into it. you will probably go through dozens before someone entertains the idea. one thing to do is keep an eye on that one and any others you put an offer on. after 150 days or so offer it again. unless you really have to move, time is on your side. yes it is.
If i do not have cash, but I am pre-approved by my bank how do I buy foreclosure
I have been using free trails on a few different sites.
http://www.NJSheriffSales.com
seems to be pretty accurate and decent. Plus it shows the adress and the layers and when they are going to auction. So I figure I will check out a few places and if I like any go a knocking on there doors. Also make sure you find out if there are any leins on the house. If a house is listed at say 100k with no leins I’d offer them a little more just so they have some money in there pocket. I have never talked to any owners in foreclosure but it seems the best time to see them is a few weeks before auction. Agleast this wau if they agree to give you the time of day you may be able to get them to let you look around and you can turn it into a FSBO so that you can use your mortage :) Hope this helps some
what is amazing to me is that the press continues to report every NAR statement as if it is news. the group has lost all credibility, and yet they are quoted as experts more than anyone else
I find this web site very funny – granted it is not in NJ but still
http://www.boycotthousing.com/houseoftheday.aspx
Don’t ever pay or register for sheriff sale information. The sheriff will provide that for you, for example:
http://www.mcsheriff.org/main/civil_sheriffsales/
Jim,
I wouldnt ever join I just use the free trial no cc needed.
PS thanks for the site Jim i couldnt find anything like that for morris co
Just talked to a banker in Fla.. It is a total mess. He says if you buy, in Fla., for less than 40-50% off 2005 that you are nuts, 30-40% off is typical. He is in the Naples area. Gee, I always thought the high priced areas were immune?? A friend of his lost 300k on a flip that flopped. Homes are littered with boats in their driveways, they can’t afford the marina, his words, “the owners in this state are up to their eyeballs”. He sees major foreclosure problems in 2007.
Al,
The boycotthousing site is hysterical. People in Texas, New Mexico and other sane housing markets must think anyone who lives in San Francico, LA, NNJ, Boston, etc. is certifiable. Maybe they are right.
“Some of our clients who work in the distressed arena and buy crappy mortgages have reviewed large nationwide portfolios of existing homes that are up for sale because of mortgage default. Their findings indicate that prices are already down 8 – 20 percent on average across the country! Remember, based on actual history of past real estate bubbles, the housing price drop is almost certain to take 2 to 3 years before it hits bottom”
http://www.sfgroup.org/Home%20Equity%20Cookie%20Jar.htm
two houses on my street that were for sale over the last year have been taken off the market. One was a retired gentleman who listed originally at 435k in Feb, lowered to 385 in July, now he’s taken it off completely. Not sure if he’s holding off until the dust settles, but originally he wanted to move into an apartment ’cause he can’t maintain the house himself anymore (health issues). The other guy bought last year at 419k, then tried to FSOB at 419k this year…it sat for months and finally he’s taken it off the market. I think there’s a lesson here: people saw the glut, the lack of interest, and now are biding there time to sell until this wave shapes more in their favor. This will be an endless cycle. How many people are playing this game, casting their line in a systematic arc with a nice jig and lure, so that they can snag the unassuming bottom feeder, then with a nice subtle action, bring the big one in on a jersey bounce?
Someone jumped in too soon on this one:
270 White Oak Ridge Rd
Short Hills
Feb 15, 2006 – $899,000 (MLS 2246790)
Mar ??, 2006 – $889,000
Apr 27, 2006 – $845,000
Jun 27, 2006 – $825,000
Aug 15, 2006 – WITHDRAWN
Aug 29, 2006 – $795,000 (MLS 2314033)
Oct 20, 2006 – $750,000
Oct 29, 2006 – Open House
Nov 05, 2006 – Attorney Review
Nov 08, 2006 – Under Contract
Homer, the agent is required to present the offer to her client (the same person who no doubt priced the house).
My offer is serious and I was willing to go to 150,000.00 But she will not write up an offer for me. She stated that she owes more on the house than my offer. According to the tax records it states she paid 40,000.00 for it.
Reguardless if the seller will or will not accept an offer, I thought by law they had to write up an offer no matter what it was. Any help?
Good post over at So.CA RE Blog:
The Biggest Loser: NAR
While I have been on the record many times that I see nothing wrong with good real estate agents, it has been clear that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is attempting to perpetuate a stranglehold on the real estate industry that puts buyers and sellers at a disadvantage such that milks both of their hard-earned money.
…
Such is also the case with the arrogant prick (is there any other way to describe him?) Allan Dalton of Move.com (aligned with the NAR) who led a heated attack against competing information broker Zillow. And, might I add, a personal attack against Zillow’s founder, Lloyd Frink.
http://socalbubble.blogspot.com/2006/11/biggest-loser-nar.html
Would someone explain to the uninitiated – can i really buy a house for twenty thousand dollars at a sheriffs sale ?
To those that are frustrated that low balling is not working;
Relax,we are in the initial stages of this bust. This may play out for another 2-4 years. It is a slow, grinding process. This market does not crash in a day. There may be even be up bounces along the way. You may be frustrated. On the contrary, I’m suprised at how fast it is unraveling. A 55% drop in sales, as reported by Toll is huge. A 12% drop in median prices in BC is substantial, for the first leg of this decline.
Remember after a long sustained mania homeowners are still not accepting their fate. They still feel they deserve prices attained by their neighbor’s last year. Market declines in RE go through a process. At this point it seems to me that most of the market is complacement,(not the H-Builders, they understand), let the listing expire, put it back on in the spring, rent it out until we get our price, yawn, yawn again, etc… As the herd finally realizes that prices are weakening, complanency will shift to concern, resulting in increased selling and even lower prices. As prices continue to drop and the news becomes more and more negative the psychology will shift from concern to fear. At some point, maybe some huge fraud is exposed,fear turns into panic, driving prices to their ultimate low, get out at any price, capitulation will occur. When??? Who knows. I do think we have to get thru the 3rd quarter of 2007 before complacency only begins to turn into concern. We could be off by 20% (off 2005) before we get to the fear/panic stage. Remember, they got in at any price, they will exit the same. The panic stage will drive prices to extreme discounts, as compared to the 2005 high.
We are only in Act 1 of a 4 Act play. If a buyer doesn’t accept your lowball, don’t complain. Keep in mind they are still complacent, tell them you are going to take a nap for a year, but they have your OK to wake you, at your price, let the psychology do the work for you. Just keep chugging along. It will happen, don’t make the mistake of caving in too soon. There is still way too much risk in this market at this time. Be Patient!!!!
Thank God BC Bob is back here. The voice of reason on the short side of the trade…
Clot,
What county does your office handle??
Thanks clotpoll, but do you need to be so abusive?
JB- you mentioned earlier in the week you would post your further thoughts on the Otteau seminar? Did I miss it?
The abuse is only a wedge to drive through the narcotic vapor and sameness of thought that permeates this site. I’ve never met anyone here, but I’m sure that all are perfectly nice folk (many here who’ve accused me of everything short of infanticide say the same thing about me). We’re all just strangers talking to strangers. Believe me when I tell you I can take double the treatment that comes back my way. God forbid the market doesn’t play out the way everyone here seems to think is pre-ordained…I can’t think of this many pi***ed off people with ill intent, brains and resentment let loose without supervision. A market crash would be easier to handle.
BC Bob– my office handles primarily Hunterdon/Somerset. Some Middlesex, some Warren, some Union.
Keep it civil.
Don’t waste a good comment by mixing it with insult. I simply don’t have the time to edit comments, so they will just be deleted.
jb
i will repeat that it is an emotional endeavor these days to buy and sell. Homer i reiterate, keep at it man you will hit. I have seen it with my own eyes. Keep an air of indifference. Easier said than done but it will be your friend.
don’t sway to the dark side!
sorry, i am a star wars fanatic.
Homey–
Don’t like insult? How about just the facts, based on what you’ve shared here:
1. In a collapsing market, you did not successfully negotiate an offer for a house that sounds like it wouldn’t suit a resident of Dogpatch.
2. You cannot get a seemingly-incompetent agent to take the five minutes required to draft a written offer for said property.
3. You seem to have immediately alienated everyone around this deal who might be able to help you…now, or in the future.
No matter what you think about me, the seller, the agent or the market…at some point, you will need to gain the cooperation of others to get what you want. Your attitude jumps off the screen, and you need to find some way to dial that down when you’re dealing with the principals on the home you eventually choose to buy.
“I can’t think of this many pi***ed off people with ill intent, brains and resentment let loose without supervision. A market crash would be easier to handle.”
Clot,
Not true!! I have assessed the risk/reward in this market. It’s simple, if I am wrong, I either take my RE profits out of the bank and buy or decide not to participate. If prices continue to follow their 2000-2005 trend, I stay out. However, if they go back to their previous 100 year trend (pre 2000), I buy. Very simple!! Don’t lose a wink of sleep over it, don’t worry about my I/O adjustment.
By the way, thanks for the office info.
“According to (consultant) Karim Rahemtulla, based in Baltimore, Md., the situation is about to get much worse. ‘Homeowners are in denial,’ Rahemtulla said. ‘Right now, sellers aren’t selling. They’re still waiting for Santa to deliver their asking price.’”
Right on.
BC Bob–
You’re the minority. I AM worried about the anencephalitics who have you outnumbered about 100-1.
“My offer is serious and I was willing to go to 150,000.00 But she will not write up an offer for me.”
Ditch the agent, write up an offer letter, knowk on the door, and presetn it to the seller. If the house is vacant, mail your letter to the address, and the post office will automatically forward to the owner.
Agents are entirely irrelevant, don’t let them get in the way of your deal.
UnRealtor.
Amen.
Clot,
Don’t agree with your statement. There are some brillaint people on this site; education,experience,street smarts, politics, market savvy, etc… Take the time to read more posts, you’ll come around.
On buying foreclosures – be careful. It’s a complicated process, and frankly, if you don’t know what you’re doing, you have a real good chance of trouble. There are many issues, both legal and practical, about buying foreclosures. For example, while I’m no expert, I’m pretty sure that the “owner” that’s living in the house probably isn’t the right party to contact at that stage of the process… either legally or from a personal perspective (“Hi, I know you’re in bankruptcy and losing your home to foreclosure, mind if I look around so I can put in a good bid?”).
Today’s Schedule
New Today! “Death Spiral” Makes Home Builders Angry!
Chronicles an “astounding” UBS Home Builder Conference where every single Home building CEO specified that there was no end in sight for the housing slowdown. Donald Tomnitz CEO of D.R.Horton went so far as to call the downturn a “Death-Spiral” as builder incentives and discounts create further buyer apprehension price weakness. Additionally, watch tempers flare when Ara Hovnanian, CEO of Hovnanian Enterprises squares off against Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers over builders tactics used to sell off unwanted property!!!
Originally aired on: 11/9/2006 on CNBC
Let the fun begin.
UnRealtor–
I’m assuming that letter will have something attached…like an approval for financing. I’m also assuming that it will not look like something written by the Unabomber.
I’m finishing my letter to Santa Claus right now. If I put “North Pole” as the address, it’ll get there…right?
BC Bob–
Many educated people here; no argument. I am dwarfed, as I basically studied beer in college. However, many tone-deaf folks here when it comes to being nimble with markets, negotiation and understanding weird asset classes that behave according to their own rules.
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=50
you did not successfully negotiate an offer for a house that sounds like it wouldn’t suit a resident of Dogpatch.
I understand maybe the realtor thinks I am a bit whacky but, I wanted to make a written offer. I am at this point most likely going to mail a letter to the seller.
This house does have the potential to be a great home, it just needs a lot of money ivested into it. As much as sellers let there emotions get in the way, I am the first to admit mine do to :)
So Clot since you seem to have a understnding of making offers, more than I do, how would you suggest I present my offer? I mean I want to be open minded. I mean yes my offer is way under there asking price, however I want to nicely say that the house needs a lot of work and 150 is a fair price for all the work that will need to be done to bring it up to par.
Last note: I find real estate amusing, a house can be a completed dive and you maybe able to get more than its really worth.
I mean when was the last time you saw a piece of junk car listed for 40,000.00 and says it has lot of potential to be a great car? LOL I mean yes the car may have potential but why would I over pay and than still invest money into something?
However, many tone-deaf folks here when it comes to being nimble with markets, negotiation and understanding weird asset classes that behave according to their own rules.
I hope you take the time, and have the patience, to share that knowledge with us.
jb
I moved here in July from the midwest. My father-in-law has just sold his home there (3500sqft brick) for 115k so you will not be surprised that I faced considerable sticker shock when looking here (1br railroad condo 635k ask). So much so that I decided to rent to wait out the market.
I was able to sell my home there quickly. I think it was because I was realistic about what I asked (Lannonstone 2br 2b 2.5ac riverfront) 215k in a soft market.
I find watching all this from the sidelines very entertaining. Your forum not only provides good information but also lively, though occasionally excessively ad hominem, debate.
In looking at the Sherriff’s sales, I find it surprising that many sell for $100 to large companies, while others have sold for more than the judgement. Why would someone not offer more than the $100 bid by the banks?
Thanks Grim, i was thinking the same thing.
Its Crashing
Thanks,
I really enjoyed the “CEO after CEO after CEO says its going down”.
Brainclot,
Desperate sellers have few options. For best effect, clip out individual letters from various newspapers and magazines, then create words from these letters and glue them to a piece of paper.
Another Greedy Grubber gives up, for when ‘things are better in the spring’…
72 Meadowbrook Road
Short Hills
On the market for 90+ days at $750K summer 2005.
Taken off the market at end of summer.
Apr 19, 2006 – $729,900
May 03, 2006 – $699,900
May 25, 2006 – $689,000
Jul 06, 2006 – $684,000
Jul 22, 2006 – $679,000
Jul 26, 2006 – WITHDRAWN
Jul 27, 2006 – $659,000 (MLS 2303464)
Sep 02, 2006 – $639,000
Oct 26, 2006 – $630,000
Nov 08, 2006 – WITHDRAWN
Ride the market down!
Homey–
Now we’re getting somewhere. The best way to present the “lowball” is to type it, PERFECTLY, on a standard agreement form (one from Staples will work fine). Even better, get a NJAR standard agreement form, and alter it to your purposes.
Attach a bulletproof, credit-based pre-approval. Have the lender also state within your pre-approval that it is not contingent upon any event (like selling your current home).
Propose a closing date no more than 30 days from the offer date. Hard for a seller to walk away from a fast, guaranteed cessation of pain!
Put a “kill date” in the offer (e.g.: “if seller does not respond, in writing, by x/x/2006, this offer is null and void…”). Now, the seller can’t put the freeze on you.
Attempt to personally hand it (not present it, line-by-line) to the homeowner. Forwarding orders on mail expire…why go to all that trouble to have the offer come back to you in 10 days? If you meet the seller at the door, put it in his hand and walk away.
Carbon copy the listing agent on your offer. The owner’s going to ask the agent’s opinion anyway; why pretend otherwise?
Resist all temptation to reach out or initiate any communication with anyone on the seller side. You’re in the dominant position; keep it by forcing them to try and figure you out. The minute they believe you will not walk away, you’re cooked. The party with the upper hand never talks!
I can’t believe Tomnitz actually used the words death spiral to describe the housing market.
jb
Buyer bails from the deal, seller gets spooked and withdraws the listing, hoping ‘for a better spring’…
Oct 26, 2006 – $1,195,000 (MLS 2334557)
Nov 09, 2006 – Attorney Review
Nov 10, 2006 – WITHDRAWN
Thanks Clot, some good advice there.
I’m still laughing over Toll confronting Ara over his spec home comment..
(talking about the video posted on the paperdinero link posted above)
jb
Thanks Clot, I filed that.
New in Town (from #46):
No one offers more than the $100 takedown offer when the “upset price” (the mortgage balance outstanding PLUS all other judgements and liens against the property) is so high that it chases off everybody else.
That’s why the title search is so vital before getting into foreclosures. Many a property out there now sports a toxic combo of deferred maintenance, big mortgage payoff and a list of judgements longer than a giraffe neck. Many second mortgage holders are now gladly taking as little as 5 cents on the dollar to go away.
I’m still appreciating the out-of-the-box classic “READ MY LIPS YOU SCHMUCK”. However, coming from a family of musicians, I really enjoy the “tone-deaf” comment. It is just such a pithy thing to say.
Clot
One thing though since the realtor is not presenting the offer and I am going to be following what you said, Some people are saying to send a letter to the seller with an offer for after the listing expires. Do you reccomend that I suggest that or just leave that out.
Also if anyone can let me know what they paid for it MLS #2240218
According to the Tax board it states she paid 40k. However the realtor says otherwise and that she owes more the 125k on the house. So I am curious to find the person really paid.
THanks Clot and everyone
Only cure to NJ budget problems:
Turn NJ into Nevada. Make Atlantic City into Vegas, make Meadowlands into Reno.
Thats the only cure. The only other cure is to cut all the milk and honey programs for the homeboys and the so called “poor”.
These so called “poor” people always seem to have money for booze, cigs, marijuana, and lotto tickets, and all their kids have ipods, $100 Nikes, and $300 North Face Jackets.
Shit,,,,, put me on the dol.
truly yours,
SAS
Homer maybe the owner has a HEFTY HELOC to pay back.
Yes, don’t miss that video report:
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=50
* “CEO after CEO saying there’s no end in sight to the bust”
* “we’re in a death spiral”
* “inventory up 50% over last year”
* “CEOs: maybe 2008 for bust bottom”
* “40% cancellations”
* “cancellations at closings”
* “Buyers can’t sell their existing homes”
A little Friday night Excel.. Goes well with Scotch, Merlot, etc..
https://njrereport.com/files/oct06-snapshot.xls
Very good link, that. Did you see the look on his face..you THINK builders are trying to dump LAND?
“I’m sure YOU’RE not doing that..”
Priceless.
Homey,
No go on the “after it expires” offer. All NJ listing agreements have a 90-day agent protection period after the offer expires. You saw the home during the listing period, so the agent would be due a fee, even if you and the seller come to terms post-expiration.
However, I’ll guess the seller and agent will have a not-so-nice conversation over how much the agent may get paid for an acceptance of an offer that comes directly from you.
Yes, it will attract the mob element to a degree, but NJ has had that since day 1.
If not, roll through Dumont, NJ.
btw- Italian mafia is still live and well in this area. Although the Asians & Russians are pushing forward, they are only doing so because the Italians are politely letting them do so. Get the drift…
SAS
And… I’ve always suspected I was tone-deaf, but nobody ever had the gumption to put it in writing in a way that rang with such clarity.
;)
This story seems right out of Weird NJ:
http://www.strausnews.com/articles/2006/11/10/township_journal/news/15.txt
Bernanke Says `Reliance’ on Money Growth Is `Unwise’
http://www.irnnews.com/news.asp?action=detail&article=14854
Dollar Falls to 2-Month Low Versus Euro on Central Bank Concern
http://www.irnnews.com/news.asp?action=detail&article=14852
The Toll/Hovnanian thing reeks of dog and pony. Most homebuilders have lots of their land inventory in off-balance-sheet (thought that died with Enron?) ventures. And, to be fair, the smart, well-run homebuilders are light on land inventory and heavy on options to buy… although they’re coming up on a hard decision as to whether or not to exercise those options.
Check Herb Greenberg’s comments on homebuilders and how they account for land holdings at cbsmarketwatch.com. Smart guy.
SAS link
“ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet wrote yesterday in the Financial Times that “a model of monetary policy that includes no role for money is incomplete”….”
Shhhh, be vewwy, vewwy quiet…if we don’t tell them how much we’re printing, maybe they won’t find out…
“By July 2000, the statutory reporting requirement had expired, and Fed officials stopped publishing money growth forecasts. A year ago, the Fed ended reporting figures on the broadest measure of the money supply, M3”
Crazy, more they print, the less your dollar buys. And let us not forget, our good friend China pegs its currency to the dollar.
Thank goodness for WalMart to save the day.
:)
SAS
Is the Linden on Second Life pegged to USD?
I might just go take out a big old loan and buy some property there.
New hedges abound.
Anyone know about these jerks:
http://mortgages.interest.com/
?
They are still trying to sell crap.. nicely wrapped and packaged.
I have RSS feeds from Digg, and this website is heavily dugg/spammed.
So what’s happening in Bergen County? As our name would imply, we’re looking in that area for next year. Seen some stuff we like in Fair Lawn, Teaneck, and we like Ridgewood (but nothing on the market is in our price range).
We’re setting the max at 400k, but realistically, we think we can get houses on the market for 450k for about 300-325k. If agents don’t laugh us out the door.
(PS – Bergen over Essex because of proximity to the city, but also because of schools. The latter is also why we have ruled out Hudson.)
All I know is I want Clot’s thesaurus.
Rich
Thanks Clotpoll for post # 78 I tried to say that in the shortened version.
KL
Bergen County SFH ’05 – ’06 Price Comparison
Time Period Avg$ Med$ Sales Under Contract
1/1/2005 – 7/31/2005: $635,187 $495,000 4,062 4,883
1/1/2006 – 7/31/2006: $695,133 $520,000 3,420 4,284 5.05% Increase
1/1/2005 – 8/31/2005: $641,659 $504,000 4,997 5,571
1/1/2006 – 8/31/2006: $698,721 $522,000 4,091 4,898 3.57% Increase
1/1/2005 – 9/30/2005: $644,234 $505,000 5,681 6,161
1/1/2006 – 9/30/2006: $693,413 $520,000 4,558 5,388 2.97% Increase
1/1/2005 – 10/31/2005: $647,221 $510,000 6,254 6,738
1/1/2006 – 10/31/2006: $686,953 $519,000 5,052 5,935 1.78% Increase
1/1/2005 – 11/30/2005: $649,951 $510,000 6,767 7,252
1/1/2006 – 11/10/2006: $686,647 $517,750 5,176 6,120 1.52% Increase
Current November median SFH for Bergen County is $475,000, last year it was $520,000
1/1/2005 – 12/31/2005: $649,841 $510,000 7,294 7,650
1/1/2006 – 12/31/2006: $ ? $ ? ? ?
Keep in mind, this is January to month end comparison, not year to date comparison.
Crap I only wanted a few items bold…
Damn! Hope this fixes it!
maybe this will fix it
KL
nope
oooh I got it
THANKS! I felt like such a schmuck!
Well, it looks like no one is going to be skipping over MY previous post!
Sorry all & g-nite, Rich
Clot,
Great advise to Homer!!
Ah, that 20% tax cut was too good to be true..
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-10/1163223481264571.xml&coll=1
That program will offer a sliding scale of tax relief, starting at 20 percent for the least affluent homeowners and dropping in stages as a homeowner’s wealth increases, officials working on the plan said. The specifics of the formula remain in flux as lawmakers await word from Corzine’s office on how much the state can spend on the program.
Don’t really know much about Hawaii, but I was surprized by this bit of news.
“Trump Hawaii condos sell out for $700M ”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061111/ap_on_re_us/trump_condos
how are those knouckeheads going to decrease property taxes with out cutting spending?
Did I miss something in those articles?
If they decrease proprty taxes, that just means something else will get raised. So net…there is no decrease. Just more lip service.
You want a tax decrease? Move out of the NJ & NY area, than you will have a nice tax decrease.
SAS
“Trump Hawaii condos sell out for $700M ”
Actually, the more I think about this article, I start to wonder how much of it is true. Trump has alot invested in RE in several cities, and if the RE bubble really picks up steam, he is out alot of money.
Starting to think this is just propaganda, or a publicity stunt. I am sure he sold alot of condos, but there was a alot of spinning by the press on the piece to make it look as if people are still in the “RE is a good investment” craze. As we all know, this is not always the case.
SAS
I was looking at a listing today and it said that the house was a re-bid house. Does anyone know what that means? Also, it said 3.25% to buyer’s agent but didn’t list a percentage for the seller’s agent. It’s not worth the asking price but I guess because it is on the Essex Fells border they feel they should get more.
http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1067192120
mls 2315172
Thanks
READ MY LIPS YOU GREEDY GRUBBING IT’S NOT 2005 SELLERS
SPRING 2007 HOUSING MASSACRE COMING TO A HOOD NEAR YOU.
EXPECT TO LOSE MORE OF THAT PAPER EQUITY YOU THINK YOU ARE ENTITLED TO.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Second wave the tsunami can be seen offshore.
Run for the EXITS. Still in denial?
You sit pat and wait for the papapapaPANIC!
“Bethany Marten, a buyers agency in Baldwin, views the readjustment as a needed correction. ‘It’s no longer ‘My house is an endless source of cash for me, and every year I can expect my home to go up 10 to 20 percent.’We had a great party, and the party’s over.’”
The Northender. “The word on house prices has rung loud and clear in recent months: the bubble’s burst, the party’s over, the fat lady’s sung, Elvis has left the building. Long Island is feeling the sting of a decline. The disagreement centers around the causes, extent and duration of the decline.”
“The Long Island Board of Realtors puts average closing prices at approximately $595,000 for September 2006, down from $635,000 twelve months earlier. The median closing price fell from $500,000 to $480,000 for the same period.”
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
And whar does the NAR Propaganda machjine say “Modest Appreciations” Where is Spitzer?
BREAD LINES FORMING OUTSIDE OF REALTOR OFFICES
babababa
Listen up.
Use your noodle and think…think…think…
Besides easy toxic loans and fools, what has happened in our economy to justify 100% prices increase in last 5 years?
NOOOOOOTTTTT’ING JUSTIFIES THIS. THE COOLAPSE IS IN THE 3RD INNING. 6 MORE TO GO. THE LAST OF THE DECLINE WILL BE TOTAL MISERY. THE END IS ALWAYS THE WORSE. PAIN!
YOU WANT MORE PAIN THEN HOLD OUT STUBBORNLY WAITING FOR SANTA TO COME ALONG.
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
JOE PUBLIC KNOWS THE GAME IS UP AND DOES NOT WANT YOUR DEPRECIATING ASSET.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
Booooyaaaaaaa,
Loved this quote from the above realtor;
“The guys on a shoestring, it’s going to be a washout.’”
Doesn’t sound like a soft landing to me!!
Alright Bob, enough.
Geez, Grim, can’t you limit the rants?
Booooyaaaaaaa Bob,
I hear you loud and clear.
I want to make sure the people I listent to have no bias. Can you tell me/us what you do for a living? Obviously, you are not a realtor. Are you in the renting business?
No offence, I just want to make sure I know where the noise.. er.. reasoning is coming from :)
on my part, I am looking to buy, but disgusted at the overpriced houses.
wow, Bob has one too many expresso this morning.
: )
SAS
Merrill Lynch may leave NYC
http://www.newyorkbusiness.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061110/FREE/61110010/1058/rss01&%20ssfeed=rss01
SAS
people may want to take into account that going behind the realtor’s back could get you sued.
also, w/r/t making offers, I would be wary of using pre-printed forms from Staples or even the NJAR unless you read them and fully understand what they are binding you to.
a different approach might be to send a letter with a price range saying “I am willing to negotiate with you within this price range and subject to additional terms that we may agree upon later.”
this would be non-binding to you and would allow you to react to any unforseen problems at a later date.
**Please note that these are suggestions only not legal advice. Do not rely upon these under any circumstances.
No,Right,No
Just a little tired of seeing people get reamed cuz they do not think….Especially alot of young people who are digging a deep hole for themselves by overpaying and believing debt slavery is a way of life.
BUYERS HAVE BEEN TRASHED FOR SEVERAL YEARS. IT’S PAYBACK TIME BABY!
BLEED’EM DRY.
IF IT LOOKS LIKE AN OVERBLOATED OVERPRICED SHACK IT IS AN OVERBLOATED OVERPRICED SHACK
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Upgradeable Blow out a few walls expansion opportunities
What NON-SENSE!
Chop those fairy tale prices back down to earth. Not 10% Not 20% BUT MINIMUM 25% off the top of 2005 peak prices…preferably 30% +
bababbababa
TranslationsRus says: “No Right No”
Can you tell me/us what you do for a living? No.
Obviously, you are not a realtor. Right.
Are you in the renting business? No.
From Newsday:
Home prices fall in Suffolk
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzhome1111,0,1028780.story?coll=ny-top-headlines
For the first time in eight years, the median price of a home in Suffolk County dipped compared with the same month last year, yet another sign, experts say, of the housing market’s gradual readjustment from the highs of just a few years ago.
The median price of a home in Suffolk County dropped 2.5 percent to $390,000 last month from $400,000 in October 2005, according to data released late Thursday by the Long Island Multiple Listing Service.
Nassau’s median home price, which dropped about 5.5 percent last month to $472,300, had already begun its decline. In August, its median price fell 1 percent, to $495,000, and in September, it fell 4 percent, to $480,000.
Along with decreasing prices, the housing inventory has increased, the data showed. At the current pace of sales, it would take 12.4 months to sell the existing housing supply in Suffolk County last month. In Nassau, that figure was 10.6 months, and in Queens, it was 11.5 months.
Bob, I’m sick of it as well.
The little teller at the local branch office got married last year. Nice…I’ve met her husband. Couple smiles all the time. She personally waddles out, about 5 feet pregnant, to hand the kids lollipops.
She told me last week that after saving every penny, and living in a trash place for 6 years, they bought a house with their life savings. Had to buy an old place, needs work, not such a good elementary school.
They paid three times what those places sold for in the mid-late 90’s.
Breaks my heart.
“And, to be fair, the smart, well-run homebuilders are light on land inventory and heavy on options to buy…”
Clot,
How “fair” is it to the shareholder, that Toll’s quarterly earnings take an .18 hit as a result of walking away from these?? You view that as a positive?? Do we really know how screwed HB’s may be with their private ventures?? To be “fair”,land options/private ventures may be the straw that breaks the back of some HB’s. They were not designed this way, they were “supposedly” set up to mitigate risk. Then again, I/O’s were never designed for the subprime.
“Toll said it is scaling back its land position and expects to take write-downs on owned and optioned land between $50 million and $100 million in the latest quarter, which would lower after-tax quarterly earnings by about 18 cents to 36 cents a share.”
“Additionally, Technical Olympic said it has notified Deutsche Bank (DB) that it disputes a demand for payment under certain limited guarantees provided by Technical Olympic in connection with the financing of a joint venture”
http://www.housingzone.com/articleXml/LN528380605.html
Here’s a scary article:
The Bonnie and Clyde of Mortgage Fraud
November 7, 2006 (Marcia Vickers – Fortune)
http://www.tiny.cc/nyOr9
Interesting article in the NYT about how NJ market is tough to gauge.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/12/realestate/12njzo.html?ref=realestate
Homer,
If the place is a dump that needs a lot of work, and it’s in a flood zone to boot … to me, that sounds like the kind of place you should avoid like the plague.
Maybe you should widen the area of your search and look in Central Jersey, too? $150,000?
Prices in CJ are still relatively high, but in a year or two ….
But a house in a flood zone, I think you’d have a real problem if you wanted to sell it later …
Buying in Late 07 (maybe) Says:
November 11th, 2006 at 11:50 am
Interesting article in the NYT about how NJ market is tough to gauge.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/12/realestate/12njzo.html?ref=realestate
Narrow gauged Wall Street effect on NNJ – a swath of people have money – most do not – fires erupt but they quickly burn out
there will be some more action as bonuses get paid in the coming months – don’t be fooled
the part that I am looking at i only flood zone because of a pipe burst in 84
The reason we are looking in Pequanock area is because the in laws live in Lincoln park and they will be able to help my wife with the twins when they pop out
Also the problem I have with renting is most places even private rentals do not allowqw dogs. both my dogs were shelter dogs and had bad lives so i can never give them up. So i will just wait and look
Also drove by 3 houses that will be auctioned off this month looked
like they were goin to come tubeling down
chocagofinance: There may be more action as you say later on after bonuses ar paid.
But again lets keep in mind, that only the top sliver get those big numbers. Also keep in mind taht only 4.7% of jobs in NYC are Wall Street jobs, and in addition to NNJ they have the rest of the metro NY area to look at.
Finally these people who are getting the big bonus money are not going tp over pay in this market, it as simple as that. They know what is going on, and they are going to wnat a deal just like the rest of us.
Belive me there will bo no bragging on a trading desk about how I over paid for a house, because I could, doe not help their credibility, same with the rain makers in investment banking.
Far too much emphasis on Wall st bonus money and the housing market.
Chi,
I have to agree with bergebbubble.I know many traders and a few MD’s.The only thing that will bring them into this market is blood, real blood, not 10% off. These are some of the best traders in the world. They know value better than anybody. They are like sharks. If they are buying you better believe that there will be a slew of seller concessions. Net effect?? A few drops of water in a bucket, this industry needs a tsunami.
Breach of contract, fraud and a real estate analyst in Fla uses the “C” word!!!
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116312159521219345-OdL0MCcl_V6OoSLLzXPNJOPCa3M_20061116.html?mod=mktw
Bost & BBB: All I have to do is look at the people moving into my building every day to give me enough evidence to support my opinion.
I don’t think we disagree, but the issue here is that we are not discussing the “masters of the universe”. I am talking about the run-of-the-mill late-20’s banker couples who’ve just been married, both mom’s & dad’s front them the down payment, and they are sitting with $150,000 burning a hole in their pockets. Hand them a $150K bonus and they are off to the BMW dealership, and then to the sales office in my building.
I see it at least once every other weekend, and this is being repeated all over Hoboken and Jersey City. Does it really matter – NO. However, they are out there, they are wet behind the ears, they are cocksure as hell, and were born and bred on pre-packaged crap and this Los Angeles version of New York City that they frequent.
Most shocking by the way – because chicago junior is around, I’ve taken off a bunch of days in the last 3 weeks. I am absolutely floored by the number of these young “trust-a-farians” in the gym working out in the middle of the week. I guessit pays to wins the genetic lottery when you want to stay fit
BC Bob–
Imagine shareholders don’t at all like the losses incurred when builders walk away from options.
However, those losses are a drop in the bucket compared to the loss potential of continuing to build when there are no buyers at hand. I would imagine no homebuilder- from a pro-forma operations standpoint- out there is in anything other than a loss position right now. Given that, the question is: which of those builders will mitigate the losses most successfully?
I think the search feature on the homepage is broken.
bonuses, warmer weather nor act of God will save the downfall. It kills me to hear some realtors i have come across mention the bonus angle. as if.
Clot,
Don’t imagine nor assume. What about the private ventures where the the HB puts up less than a 50% share of the deposit?? How widespread are these??
Say the HB put up 49% of their share of the deposit.In this scenario, the private parties put up the other 51% share of the deposit and the joint venture finances the remaining with traditional debt,private equity, hedge funds, etc.. Since the builder holds only a minority position (…49% stake) of the deposit, they don’t have to show the cost of financing the debt on their books.
I would like to know what this #, not reflected on their books equates to???
By the way, did I swill beer with you at the Jersey Shore???
Homer,
Just a thought. Your main criteria is to be close to the in-laws. Did you ever think of looking at a 2 Family??? I know it may not be feasible, depending on the in laws situation. However, it would work like a charm with the twins and may make economic sense, with 2 parties.
Right now, China and US are pretty symbiotic, but its only a matter of time before China cuts us off. Then, what will YOU do. Hope you are planning for your future….
“Dollar recovers a bit”
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/11/10/business/NA_FIN_MKT_US_Dollar.php
SAS
BC Bob–
I imagine the skullduggery of the HBs knows no bounds. I’d defer to Herb Greenberg at cbsmarketwatch.com to unearth the particulars.
Possible we have swilled beer at shore in past. Beer good, work bad. I’m usually hoist on my petard on LBI.
its more than welfare SAS, many others are sucking the life out of NJ.
This State is lost.
Hey SAS (From #46)–
So the Chinese cut us off…and kill the biggest export market they have?
So they diversify into Euros and gold. Wouldn’t you?
“its more than welfare SAS, many others are sucking the life out of NJ”
so true.
But alot of people in NJ gladly bend over and take it… as long as we have Oprah, reality TV, and football, what do we care if we are getting screwed??
yup,
SAS
“So the Chinese cut us off…and kill the biggest export market they have?”
They won’t cut us off yet or anytime soon. But lets put it this way. Banks always evaluate the creditworthyness of a client and there ability to pay back what they borrow. If you don’t believe me, ask anyone whomever has run a bank. If a bank deems them not creditworthy, they don’t get the loan (well, for the most part, I don’t where you would place an ARM loan). Now, think of China as the bank, and the USA as the person whom is getting a loan. One day, China will no longer think we are creditworthy, and cut us off because of our inability to pay them back. It already is “sort of” happening, China is taking assests in lew of cash (ex. shipping yards in CA, etc..). I wouldn’t be surprized NJ leases the toll roads to China, why not? A good way for the state to make money and get out of this financial pickle it is in? yes? I would be against it of course, but financially it makes sense.
“So they diversify into Euros and gold. Wouldn’t you?”
yup, see above. They are slowly getting diversified because deep in their bellys, they know we can’t pay them back.
You don’t think trade imbalances are important?
you bet your sweet little ass they are…
Homer,
Proximity to the in-laws – that explains a lot.
I had forgotten that you had twins on the way …
Homer, have you tried keeping an eye on the short-term rentals area on craigslist?
You just might find something that will get you through until you can find a house, or some other place.
I know this is way to far, but an example:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/sub/209464550.html
Good Evening my fellows and fellowets.
I have found another property. Its in Mine Hill, the MLS number is 2329815 and its a decnent sized place listed at 259,900.00 so I may have a better chance of presenting a lower offer. Can someone anyone tell me how long its been on the market, and the address and how much owner paid for it. Thanks everyone. I will check out Craigslist, thanks for the idea Pat, I have been running outta ideas.
Mine hill is not that bad of a ride to the inlaws.
SAS (from #51)–
You’re veering into the territory of the 10-Cent Intellect Club. Your analogy of China as the banker is broken from the get-go. The Chinese elite are a bunch of corrupt, watered-down, not-so-former Communists. Their nascent banking system is so untrustworthy that the vast majority of the monied population puts their life savings into insurance. Don’t believe me? Check the charts for China Life Insurance (symbol LFC). Their country is presently one of the most profligate polluters and violators of basic human rights on the planet. Finally, their currency- and its valuation- is a sham based upon a ruse. Their whole economy is so self-inflated and devoid of real basis for steady growth that their government actually lowballs GDP and short-term growth numbers.
Come on, already! Be down on RE, be down on the drift of our culture…but stop trying to instigate a pile-on onto the most transparent, individual-friendly economy on the planet. China is so riddled with the problems endemic to emerging economies that Goldman Sachs or Merrill could bring them to their knees. Our govt has bigger fish to fry than these arrivistes.
This is a wonderful place to live, and it pains me to look at the constant kvetch that passes for considered thought around here.
The Chinese know that their current situation is unsustainable. We are co-dependent. I recommend reading anything by Steven Roach regarding this.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/10/AR2006111000701.html
More on RE commissions
After laying dormant for two years, the Justice Department’s criminal probe into accounting transgressions at Freddie Mac is apparently over, according to company officials.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/11/AR2006091101074.html
” “
Regarding that Freddie investigation that ended (9/06), was there a report that was ever issued? I don’t remember seeing anything. Did it just die?
Clot: I guess even if you majored in beer, you must have had a minor in Economics. Agreed. I would sooner be worried about Brazil or India, as they have a banking system and capital markets that are more closely based on reality rather than some chimera.
chicago
“So they diversify into Euros and gold. Wouldn’t you? ”
Clot,
Yes, have since 2003. By the way, the dollar has ended lower yoy since 2001, gold has ended higher yoy since 2001. Did somebody say, the trend is your friend??? Remember, they know we have them militarily. They are chomping on the bit to kick our ass economically. There are close to 1 mil workers that came off the rice paddy’s farms, now in factories. Do you think they are about to go on strike??? By the way, why does the $ tank when H.E. Mr. Jin Renqing farts???? It is a crime that our chains are being pulled by them. It shows you the serious structural problems inherent in the $. I feel it is a crime that the $ even moves when they utter a word. That’s what happens when they are pulling the strings. You can talk about pollution, communism, etc…, until you are blue in the face. If you ever travel outside the hills of Bedminster you will understand. By the way, China only has 1 % of their foreign reserves in gold. Do you know what will happen to the price of gold if they up this to 3-5%????
Now I know, the Terrace Tavern!!!
“I wouldn’t be surprized NJ leases the toll roads to China, why not? A good way for the state to make money and get out of this financial pickle it is in? yes? I would be against it of course, but financially it makes sense.”
SAS,
The state is discussing it now, the NJ Turnpike, the Parkway and AC Expressway.
We have bastardized our $ to oblivion. Foreigners are having a field day. Hell, they are buying at a 35-40% discount since 2001.
UnRealtor,
Looks like we’re monitoring the same areas. That place on Meadowbrook in Short Hills was by my sister’s house. They took it off the market, but it’s doubtful they would be able to sell it in this environment unless it goes for mid 500’s or less. Unfortunately they priced too high at the end of ’05 and rode the market down. If they priced at 630k in ’05 they probably could have got it. Let me know when you bid on a place and I’ll let you know when I do. No need to step on each other’s toes and drive prices up. I’m sure since we both follow this board, we will not be doing that anyway…
Actually today I just drove by two places on Bodwell Terrace that’s on the MLS. One going for $449k and the other for $479k. The $479k had some interest in considering the low price. The $449k needed much work, they would be lucky to get mid 300’s considering the amount of work needed to get the place up to spec. The $479k place would probably get low to mid 400’s.
Hard Place.
Homer
your address in mine hill is 214 route 46
does not have history, on market 31 days – original ask 277,750 purchased according to tax recrd 1999 shows 1.00 may be family transfer.
No other records – Looks nice hope thats not a busy section of 46
KL
Just got back from Borat. I laughed.. but it was awful!
Homer, others – I use the following link for property records:
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/prc6.cgi?menu=index&ms_user=monm&passwd=data&district=1301&mode=11
If anyone has other similar links on property records, I would like to know.
Clotpoll,
“You’re veering into the territory of the 10-Cent Intellect Club”
nice one ;) but lets put it this way, I am good at turning 10 cents into 10 dollars, and 10 dollars into 100$ so on and so on.. :)
ok, the banker things may not be the best example, I admit. and of course, China does not have the banking system we have in the states. But that wasn’t really my point in the post. My point was that, sooner or later, China will reach a level where they don’t need the USA and cut us off because of our inability to pay them back. I know,,,,I know…I left alot of details, but I think you get the picture. You may disagree, thats cool, this is just my opinion.
Yes, I agree, you can argue that China is a bubble. Personally, I just don’t think it is a bubble.
Then again, I never thought Vietnam would be a productive country, and now… god damn Intel is building a 1 billion dollar chip factory there. So.. time will tell. yes?
Cheerio,
SAS
BC Bob-
Not me at Terrace Tavern. I’m strictly a deck & porch imbiber on LBI.
Great point on Chinese gold reserves. Has always been scary to think of them getting in there with all the newlyweds in India and driving the price up to about $1,000/oz. Of any govt in the world needing a gold hedge vs inflation, China’s the one, too.
Still hard to get that worried about a completely rigged currency controlled by politicos who probably still count on their fingers. Until they go to a true free float, I just see more danger to them than to us. I also don’t get a sense that they are collectively dying to kick our a** economically, a la postwar Japan. Seems like the vast majority who have two yuan to rub together want I Pods, Starbucks, Master Cards, a warm shower once a day and a trip to Macau every year (so they can hand gazillions of dollars to Steve Wynn and LV Sands).
So our $ goes down…funny how every time it sinks, it’s preceded by some Treasury Sec yelling about his “belief in a strong dollar”. And even funnier to see every multinational company that trades here’s stock go thru the roof. I’ve come to believe that dollar weakness is the govt’s secret policy to export as many of our problems as possible. Too much economic stimulus- esp. for transports and manufacture- to think it’s coincidence.
Clot,
I totally agree about our govt policy regarding the $ policy and it’s not secret. There is no concrete action to do anything about it. It was all one big master plan back in 2001, print,print and devalue. Prop up the US consumer and make our exports more competitive. It is a sad day for the US when our polcymakers decide to bastardize their own currency in order to compete. It’s all fine and dandy until one day, the market crashes and the scapegoat is the dollar. In a way,a country’s currency is basically the stock of the country. How’s our country’s stock??? I’m not worried about their yuan, you’re right is is rigged, at this time.
My major contention is the US consumer is like an addict(debt,debt,debt) and China is our pusher. China and Japan hold close to 50% of our treasuries. What happens if our economy slows and we are not greasing them??? Do you think, they will continue to hold our securities in a weak $ environment??? What’s their incentive?? Receive 4.5% interest and lose 5% in their currency conversion?? Remember, they have to convert yen/yuan into dollars, when they buy our debt. That’s when we get screwed for our weak dollar policy. Also, are you happy that our world competitor’s are buying crude at an approx 34-40% discount since 2001???
Also, don’t discount the Russian influence in the gold trade. Don’t be scared about $1,000 gold, just profit from it.
By the way, the usual discalimer applies. The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
I was debating with a friend of mine about the following:
A home bought 18 months ago in NNJ for $850,000 would sell for what (if it sold at all) in today’s market?
I told him my guess would be somewhere around $700,000 and he said “20% less, you’re out of your mind…”
Any opinions?
Let me add one thing: His argument was the home would be put on the market for close to $1M and then they would accept an offer 10-20% less. My argument was nobody would even be interested if they jacked up the price that high from 18 mos. ago.
Homer, that house looks great, good price, i am curious though , it does say this “Condo/Townhome/Coop Property” does that mean you own the house but have to pay a fee every month?
The party is over take 25% at a minimum off the orig price.
If you want to read a good overview re the envorinmental degradation in China buy the book Collapse by Jared Diamond. There’s cities in China were the lead levels are so high people have to wear masks when they are outside. They’ve had to put a wall of trees around Beijing as part of their preparation for the Olympics to protect against the ever more frequent dust storms that hit the city due to dramatic levels of erosion. All of this is caused by manufacturing pollution, wait until their middle class develops further and everyone is driving a car.
If you don’t subscribe to the Economist you should as it provides a really well written and concise overview of the developments in the world. They had a pretty good article re the Chinese dollar reserves last week. There’s actually a good one this week about the political backlash in India against the English language. It seems as a consequence of renewed nationalism many of the local governments are requiring the local languages being taught in schools with English being taught as a foreign language. Apparently it is also a result of a lower class backlash against the “call center” jobs that India has gained. It seems that politicians in every country know how to shoot themselves in the foot.
Iran Closing the Strait of Hormuz in Persian Gulf
——————————————————————————–
Iran Closing the Strait of Hormuz in Persian Gulf
Nov 10, 2006
Bahman Aghai Diba PhD International Law – Persian Journal
The editor of Kayhan Newspaper, Hussein Shariatmadari, has recently said: “if Iran is put under the UN sanctions, the 5+1 states [i.e. the USA, the UK, France, China, Russia and Germany] would the biggest losers from economic and political points of view.” He has added: “closing the Strait of Hurmoz can be one of the retaliatory reactions [of Iran]… . if we are made subject to the sanctions, then naturally we can use some leverages, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz. Closing the Strait of Hormuz will seriously stop the flow of oil to the industrial states and they will face intolerable conditions. Of course, there are numerous other leverages that will be discussed later.” (1)
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea passage that connects the Persian Gulf to the Oman Sea. This is the only sea-passage for the export of oil from the Persian Gulf states. The Iranian forces have done several maneuvers aimed at closing the Strait of Hormuz at the time of crisis and the Western forces in the region (in cooperation with the some of the littoral countries or independently) have conducted several maneuvers aimed at deterring such plans.
China has many internal problems.
Maybe the working stiffs of america may realize they are broke and start being brainwashed into debt slavery.
Spoke with a pretty sharp 25 year old yesterday. He is aware of the shenanigans in RElalalalaland. He’s waiting for the substantial price drops. Hear that Grubbers. Fewer and fewer fools being minted. Going to have to work for a living.
Housing Massacre Spring 2007 – Count on it.
Boooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
The Phoney RE economy is busting. RE is overrated as an economic driver.
Hearing the starving bunch are now saying take 10% immediately off the top. This is funny cuz the grubbers in many cases have jacked up their phoney prices 10% above peak 2005. Don’t be fooled by these stiffs. If you do pay anywhere near asking then you deserve the consequences of your decision. NOONE ELSE!
Sit on your hands and wait for these pathetic grubbers to be slapped by reality. They think they are entitled to what Joe Schmoe got a year and half ago.
Booooooooyaaaaaa
Bob
I just don’t enjoy the weekend if I don’t get the new issue of the Economist in the mail on Friday.
jb
Look at the American fool consumers. SUV sales pick up in October.
HAHAHAHAHA.
No crisis lalalala everything is okay. Gas is $2 now so everything is back to normal. hehehe.
You ain’t seen Nooootttt’ing yet.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAA
Bob
Unrealtor, Hardplace
I have been following that place on Bodwell for $479, I dont see it on gsmls.com any more
do you have the mls number I also want to track when and at what price it sells.
thanks
http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15989096.htm
“How worried should we be about the Lou Dobbs Democrats?”
hey pat, seen the new house on overlook ave in washington crossing.. 450k .. found out its heavily in the flood zone..what a beautiful location tho **sigh**
WHat is the cost per square foot to build a home in western Morris county if you already own the land? Can you find a builder to do that for you? Is now a good time to think about that or is just as bad as buying from a builder or an existing home?
Be very, very careful up there, BM. Beautiful, wet houses in that flat area.
There’s one going on set back from River Rd.(don’t knowth $) in the next few weeks that has total remediation, though, with reparian rights.
Nobody I know is even looking up there until they know what’s happening upstream, with their total sewer systems, etc. Homeowners have just about had it with the cleaning up.
This bulletin helps, but nothing really on Hoboken. I have been looking around for a place to buy 2 months, and I see about 2-3% drop-off on average since August, but for the good ones, there is still a bidding war going on.
WHAT IS GOING ON?!
I am trying to gauge whether Hoboken is in an unique situation from others, and whether anyone can share any insights to this area.
THANKS!
Homer, that house looks great, good price
I just went to check it out. The wife and I took a ride just to check it out.
Pictures can be deceiving. Its not that terrible but the yard is ehh and even though its not on the busy of a part of 46, its a little to close to the road, there are other houese that are set back a bit. Plus no where to really expand parking. There is an empty lot next door but I think it belong to the church that is across the way. If it was set back more off 46 like the other ones we saw and had a little bit bette parking han we would have considered it. So my hunt continues on :)
My experience in Hoboken is that in the new construction there hasn’t been any huge price drops but the incentives keep increasing. Nearly all the new construction places are offering closing costs, free parking, teaser rates and a couple free years of condo fees. In 2005 they were charging around 30K for parking spots and none of the other stuff was included. Eventually they are going to have to start cutting the actual purchase price.
As far as resales, I’ve been around to a few open houses and still see signs out for several months on the same places. Right now I am renting a condo in a new construction building and there are about four units that are still unsold nearly two years after the initial sales. One unit just switched realtors and dropped 50k off the price from 700 to 650. In my honest opinion it is still at least 100-150K overpriced but try telling the seller.
The real problem with Hoboken is the time lag between closings and the deed/sale info being publicly available. Unless you go directly to City Hall you are talking four to six months before it shows up on Domainia etc
Just back from two open houses today. One was dead, the other, new on market, had a little traffic. One realtor actually told me “the market is back to 2004 comps.” First time I’ve heard that from a member of the profession.
I also came back from two open houses. One for $550,000 (second open house for this one) had very little traffic and when I mentioned that it had the original 1950s kitchen the agent deftly tried to turn my attention elsewhere. Way overpriced in this market but the house across the street from it sold for $679,000 last year so I’m sure they.re banking on that. The second is new to the market and had a lot of traffic. The problem is, way overpriced and the upgrades are not the quality needed for the price. In fact, the first floor bedroom had vinyl kitchen tile on the floor (the actual tile we put on our kitchen floor). I don’t know anyone who would pay $600,000 for a house with vinyl tile on a bedroom floor. Honestly, laminate flooring doesn’t cost that much more and seems to impress people.
Whoo Hoo! Two partly-remodeled houses this week 20% off 2005 comps. Same neighborhood. Must be the new comp. I’ll see it in writing from the courthouse in 6 months, and on Zillow in 5 months.
Hope this trend spreads up toward you folks!
I drove by them, but easily resisted going to the open houses, ’cause I got my Bob fix this weekend.
BTW, one open I visited was an empty house. Couple had bought a roomier fixer-upper with the aid of a bridge loan. They needed to make room for a second child. House still on the market since late June. Sign of the times.
HSD & BB: see my post #145
Chicagofinance, you’re right, there are many of those couples around Hoboken and it will be interesting to see when even they start wising up and decide to wait out the market. If prices drop the way they should based on fundamentals it could get ugly here fast.
Since this is a general topic I walyas wanted to know on what is difference between sugar maple split and split level house?
Any input is appriciated
Is Greenspan relevant??
“Greenspan told his Fed colleagues on the Aug. 21, 1990, Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where interest rate policy is set, that a recession wasn’t likely in the cards.”
“Then there was a March 6, 2000 speech, which came just as the unprecedented bull market was peaking. Greenspan said the fact that “the capital spending boom is still going strong indicates that businesses continue to find a wide array of potential high rate-of-return, productivity-enhancing investments. And I see nothing to suggest that these opportunities will peter out any time soon. Tech capex went from a 20 percent year-on-year growth rate at the time of the speech to zero a year later; the Nasdaq (composite index) collapsed by 60 percent.”
“It’s too soon to tell if Greenspan is getting it right or wrong this time around. But it’s pretty clear his rosy outlook is not shared by executives of homebuilders.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061110/all_business.html?.v=1
Nothing Less (from #79)-
RE is overrated as an economic driver? Yeah, maybe if you’re living in Appalachia in 1827.
The average residential RE transaction peripherally employs about 95 people. It’s also well-documented that the first capital purchase a family makes after contracting for a home is buying a car. Do a little homework, and you can figure out the professional categories those 95 workers fall into.
If RE isn’t an economic driver, explain to me why Caterpillar just guided down their overall ’07 forecasts in anticipation of taking a big sales hit on Bobcats…an all-purpose machine primarily used in residential construction.
If RE isn’t an economic driver, explain to me how residential RE managed to float the whole US economy from 2000-2003, when the stock market couldn’t get out of its own way and nothing in the “regular” economy seemed to work. The average US family has traditionally had its wealth tied up in liquid, traditional securities…now over 75% of all families have RE as their primary asset.
But…I forgot…they’re all a bunch of dupes and grubbers, teetering on the edge of financial ruin.
And…can anyone explain to me the excellent relative health of commercial RE? Hard to find anywhere in the US where it’s doing poorly. Sorry to bring up a positive story here…hope it doesn’t kill everyone’s doombuzz.
Cliffy:
Re post 202:
Sugar Maple Split: Main entrance entry into the den and/or family room; main living area next level up; bedrooms next level up. No basement.
Split level: Basement located beneath main living area; Entrance into main living area; bedrooms next level(s) up (usually 2).
AMS
Re: Post 196
Twice Shy,
Regarding realtor comments re 2004 comps, would you report where property was located and what broker was holding the open (remax, century21, weichert, etc.)?
TYVM!
AMS
Nothing Less (from #79)-
RE is overrated as an economic driver? Maybe…if you lived in Appalachia in 1827.
The average residential RE transaction peripherally employs about 95 people. Do some homework & common sense thinking, and you’ll identify the industries those 95 come from.
Overrated? So explain why Caterpillar guided down their ’07 forecasts over the expected downturn in Bobcat sales. Bobcats are primarily used in residential RE construction.
Up until Y2K, most US families had their wealth tied up in traditional, highly-liquid investments (like stocks & bonds). Now, 75% of US families have RE as the keystone of their wealth. But wait…I forgot…that’s the horde of dupes and grubbers about to get wiped out by the coming tsunami of doom. Idiots.
And, could you explain to me how the US economy didn’t spiral into a full-out depression from 200-2003, when the stock market couldn’t get out of its own way? Couldn’t have been because of RE…could it?
Funny how no one here ever mentions the relative health of commercial RE. I guess it doesn’t fit the into the prevailing doomsday scenario. Hard to find a bad commercial RE market anywhere in the country. Commercial RE has picked up a lot of residential RE’s slack & kept a lot of folks working.
Thanks AMS
Thanks AMS
Interesting, just saw an open house dubbed as Sugar Maple Split, it fits your definition but had a full basement under the living/ dining/ kitchen area. I asked the agent on the difference between the split and SMS she told me they are essentially the same but the SMS is bigger. So it has a better ring to it (selling point).
My personal observation is that is something to do with their exterior physical appearances, judging from the ones I have seen SMS appears to have “older” style look and the “regular” splits have more straight lines and “boxier” look.
Is the term sugar maple split a local Jersey thing?
I’ve never heard that.. just a bilevel or split.
http://www.split-level.com/default.asp
Grim,
Ben at the HBB has a great thread asking how his readers/posters came to his blog, and to their posistion on housing. I for one would like to hear our regular reader/posters stories, are they renters/owners -why, how did they end up finding your blog….. etc
KL
KL,
I think that’s a great idea as well.
Rich
KL, it is good. I don’t usually post over there, but it was such a personal and positive thread, I did.
Big distinction in SMS is direct entry to family room/den thru front door. I don’t believe they’re larger than your typical split level. I haven’t seen any sublevels in SMS and saw most of them in my Bergen County days (Washington Twp., Westwood, Hillsdale). And they do have a very ‘bilevel’ feel. Also the stairs to each level are minimal. Haven’t seen any at all in Morris County.
This week went to see some really cool t/homes in Murray hill Sq. New Providence, prices have come down, but maintence fee,s, crazy///, when asked what was included, I was told the usual, snow removel, for $475 mth. How can they get away with charging these high fees, no pool, no club house. no tennis courts, but you do get snow removel and cobbled streets, WOW//.
Boooyaaa Bob.
Why dont you try out RE profession as a buyer’s agent. A lot of people on this blog have already shown interest in you for that job and am sure many more would come forward.
2-3% is for buyer’s agent. So if you can talk down a house from 550k to 400k – I would personally give you 1% more from myself on top of you commission. Think about it, it is 12-16k per transaction that you can make happen for buyer’s like us :).
Sugar Maple baloney.
AMS,
re: post 100
Well, it’s Monday morning. Hope you check back for my belated reply.
Believe it or not, the realtor was from Burgdorff, and the open house in Westfield.
Guy talked my ear off.
My sister put in an offer yesterday on a home with OLP of $290K, recently reduced to $265K. She offered $210K. It was purchased last year for $145K and was totally remodeled.
She will NOT rent despite it totally IMO being the better option for her, so I hope this works out. It would be pretty sweet lowball if it did!
BC Bob & Chicagofinance,
Agree:
I have been on wall street 9 years and many people succesfull people that I know didn’t get where they by buying at the top. Many of them already own really nice places in the premium neighbourhoods and I don’t see them shell out $1 Mill plus for some crap.
Wall street jobs effect on the Real Estate market is overrated.
What an Ass !
http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/
Why would i pay to see flippers in trouble !!
Post #3 –
UnRealtor:
What county/counties does this refer to? (forgive me if you’ve already stated – I’m a newbie here.)
For those planning on buying at a sheriff’s sale. Don’t expect bargains. Professionals are at every sale, and know what every house is worth, within probably 25K. Bought my house at sheriff sale. Paid 402K. Bank was only owed 198K. Another guy (from an investment company) and myself were only aggressive bidders. If not for him, might have had it for 250K. This was even during slow summer months. Don’t expect to get a steal. With the internet, pros are everywhere, and even novices in for the action.