From the Asbury Park Press:
Clock ticking down on proposals for property tax reform
After 12 weeks of listening to testimony, researching other states and working to fulfill the promise of tax cuts, the deadline is here for the four joint committees studying property tax reform to present Houses their recommendations for lasting property tax reform.
Study hall is over. If the committees do not include bold and innovative solutions in their final committee reports Wednesday, then this process should be deemed a failure. And New Jersey simply cannot afford failure.
For decades, leaders of both parties in Trenton dodged the property tax issue in favor of protecting parochial traditions and vested interests. In the past five years, the average New Jersey property tax bill rose 40 percent, state spending increased 35 percent, school aid figures remained frozen and our business climate and base weakened.
Taxpayers in New Jersey cannot tolerate or afford business as usual. Instead, we need dramatic action. Gov. Corzine and the Legislature must act now to consolidate municipalities and school districts, require shared service partnerships, write a new school funding formula and reform the current pension and benefits systems.
From the Home News Tribune:
Lawmakers said yesterday that selling or leasing roads such as the New Jersey Turnpike and axing pensions for new legislators are among the plans that could lower New Jersey’s highest-in-the-nation property taxes.
State Senate President Richard Codey, D-Essex, said money earned from transferring control of state assets such as the Turnpike or Garden State Parkway to an outside entity not only could allow the state to slash property taxes by an average of 20 percent, but also increase school funding by $1 billion.
“That figure is in the ballpark,” Codey said as lawmakers continued putting finishing touches on property tax reform recommendations expected to be released by tomorrow.
Meanwhile, a committee considering how to revise public worker benefits to ease property taxes moved closer to finalizing recommendations for newly hired employees, including cutting pensions by 9 percent and eliminating taxpayer-funded pensions for new state legislators.
“We’re trying to do some bold things that are going to be helpful to the taxpayers,” said Sen. Nicholas Scutari, D-Union, the committee co-chairman.
The developments came as Gov. Jon S. Corzine promoted capping annual property tax increases at 4 percent annually. Property taxes have been increasing 7 percent annually.
From the Star Ledger:
Trenton rethinking perk: Retiring at 55
A bipartisan legislative panel is expected tomorrow to recommend raising the retirement age from 55 to 62 for new state workers and requiring all state employees to contribute more to their health insurance plans.
The panel’s final report also will recommend a switch to 401(k)-style retirement plans, instead of traditional pensions, for future elected, appointed and part-time officials. And it may call for retired state employees with relatively high incomes to contribute to their post-retirement medical insurance.
From Bloomberg:
Home Depot Net Income Falls First Time in Three Years
Home Depot Inc., the world’s largest home improvement retailer, said third-quarter net income fell 3.1 percent, the first decline since 2003 as the housing market cooled. The company lowered its earnings forecast.
…
Sales at stores open at least a year fell 5.1 percent. Chief Executive Officer Bob Nardelli is trying to boost revenue by spending more than $350 million and adding 5.5 million worker hours. Sales in older stores are declining amid competition from smaller rival Lowe’s Cos. and a drop in home-improvement spending by U.S. consumers.
From the AP:
Pennsylvania’s First Casino to Open
Pennsylvania’s first slot-machine parlor, Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs, is opening to the public — more than two years after the Legislature authorized gambling to raise money for property tax relief.
It’s not a good sign when you have to sell
assets to meet current expenses.
From the Dallas Morning News:
Realtors adapting to new reality
With home sales and prices falling in many parts of the country, real estate agents are having a tough time dealing with the new reality.
After all, it’s been more than a decade since the last housing market slowdown.
“Eighty percent of the agents in business today have never experienced a down market,” California real estate agent and industry consultant Brian Buffini said.
“Anyone who has been in the business less than eight years has never experienced a normal market,” Mr. Buffini told Realtors meeting in New Orleans this weekend.
From Marketwatch:
Technical Olympic swings to loss
Home builder Technical Olympic USA Inc. early Tuesday said it swung to a third-quarter loss of $80 million, or $1.34 a share, from profit of $70.3 million, or $1.18 a share a year earlier. The company said the results include $203.9 million in charges resulting from the write-down of assets including investments in joint ventures, write-off of deposits and abandonment costs, and inventory and goodwill impairments. “The record level of inventories of new and existing homes combined with diminished buyer confidence has created housing conditions not seen in many years,” said Chief Executive Antonio Mon in a statement.
From Bloomberg:
D.R. Horton Fourth-Quarter Profit Falls on Buyer Cancellations
D.R. Horton Inc., the largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, said fiscal fourth-quarter earnings fell 51 percent as customers canceled orders for new houses.
Net income in the quarter ended Sept. 30 was $277.7 million, or 88 cents a share, from $563.8 million, or $1.77, a year earlier, the Fort Worth, Texas-based company said today in a statement. Revenue fell 4.4 percent to $4.8 billion.
Orders for new homes slid 25 percent to 10,430, a sign that demand continues to slow as the housing market cools. D.R. Horton, which sells houses ranging in price from $90,000 to more than $900,000, and competitors have tried to avoid cutting prices and relied on sales incentives such as granite countertops or appliance upgrades to move inventory.
“Next year, they may have to do both,” Mark Agah, an analyst at Portales Partners in New York, said in an interview before the earnings were released. “It could potentially be pretty bad.”
If it’s such a damn good time to buy, why are these firms walking away from their land options. I would really like to know what the HB’s exposure is reagrding their private ventures, that are not required on their balance sheet(if they have less than a 50% stake in the deposit). Can’t wait to start hearing the uproar between these private ventures and their equity/debt partners.
Cut the overhead instead of selling off assets.
always trying to take the easy way out. A short term solution to a long term problem.
Cut property taxes with what?
Where is Corzine?
Greenscammer has done so much damage to our dollar by printing and printing bills. So many dollars sloshing around the globe.
A huge trade deficit cuz of his irresponsible handling of money policy.
If you pay anywhere near asking for these ripoff home prices you deserve the consequences, Noone else.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Will Mexico be ready when oil runs dry?
Falling production, politics take toll
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061114.wxrpemex14/BNStory/Business/home
AUGUSTA DWYER
From Tuesday’s Globe and Mail
MEXICO CITY — When a Yucatan fisherman named Rudecindo Cantarell first noticed oil bubbling up into the waters of Campeche Sound in 1976, Russia was still Communist, Rocky won the Oscar for best picture and the notion of a political party other than the Institutional Revolutionary Party running Mexico unimaginable.
Thirty years on, the Cantarell field — second in size to Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar complex and source of 60 per cent of Mexico’s total production — has begun to decline.
From a 2004 peak output of more than 2.1 million barrels of oil a day, Cantarell is down to 1.8 million b/d today, and will continue to diminish in the coming years. And its waning only seems to underscore the challenges facing the country’s monopolistic state-run oil giant, Petroleos Mexicanos.
The world’s third-largest oil producer, Pemex “has no real prospects to substitute for Cantarell,” oil analyst David Shields says. In spite of booming oil prices and record sales worth $86-billion (U.S.), it ended last year $7.1-billion in the red and has debt of $54-billion.
Output fell 4.6 per cent in August from a year earlier, and proven reserves stand at 16.5 billion barrels, representing eight to 10 years of assured production.
The legislators have made it clear that they do not want to battle the municipalities and the school boards. That’s a shame, because it is the only way we can have any lasting reform.
I was never looking for a giant tax cut right now, I could have lived with 10% or even 5% if it came with systematic reform. I guess that’s not to be.
I may have a way to lower my own taxes though, and it doesn’t include moving or doing anything illegal. If I’m successful, the people of Loch Arbour are not going to be happy.
NJ is like a third world county, they just
keep robbing.
What happened to “sacred cows, third rails and 800 pound gorillas”? Selling the Turnpike and modifying pensions for legislators sounds pretty weak to me.
In any case, I still expect fierce opposition from the unions to changing pension plans for new employees and asking all state employees to pay a portion of their health care premiums, like everyone else in this states does.
From WSJ…Horton reported no signs of a rebound in the troubled housing market and offered no outlook for fiscal 2007.
Did you guys see the FOXnews report on the high number of foreclosures nationwide this morning?
Wow, even the main media is starting to sound the alarm.
-Sapiens
private sector get 401k’s and no health coverage after retirement why should there be such a huge difference?
Many companies require employees to pay 25-50% of health cost. No defined benefit plans.
The gravy train needs to be shut down.
Where is the Great Corzine?
House prices need to drop at least 25%, preferably 30% to get down to “fair” value.
Don’t be the fool that overpays.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
FOX “News” is not the main media, imho.
Inflation came in real tame this month following a tame September. Do you guys think that a decline in the fed funds rate will spur housing activity? I know that interest rates declined in the early 90’s but I don’t know enough about that period to make a very good comparison to today. I was just entering H.S. at the time. I was not expecting inflation to come in so low. I was actually expecting core inflation to continue above the feds comfort zone. If we experience a few more months of weak inflation then the fed will need to lower interest rates. The Fed cannot defend a high rate policy if inflation is weak and a recession is looming.
Now I don’t think that a decline in rates spur housing to all of a sudden boom again, but it may not bust as much as I anticipated. It seems that the momentum is gone and without this there is no boom. People do not really expect there houses to continue appreciating in the short term. It would take at least a year or two to of healthy growth to get some momentum going. Could cutting rates trigger this? I don’t know, I don’t think mortgage rates will fluctuate much by declining Fed Funds. Any reduction in bond yields due to a drop in Fed Funds would probably be mitigated by widening risk default spreads. We are beginning to read about increasing foreclosure rates. I can’t imagine this trend will stop even if rates go down, the resets will still occur. It comes back to perception. Will the 2005/2006 decline be enough for people to say ok housing has fallen we think it’s affordable again lets begin buying. It will take a couple of years of flat to rising returns for investors to jump on board. If it takes buys 1-2 years from now for home buyers to begin buying it will take investors another 1-2 years after the homebuyers to begin buying. We are looking at about 2-4 years before things turn around. I just don’t know what this spring will look like. If sales remain flat prices will drop, if sales go down prices will drop further, if sales go up prices will remain flat. So what do you all think will the people jump in and buy this spring?
Always look past the headline numbers..
Core PPI excluding vehicles rose 0.1% in Oct., BLS says
The 0.9% decline in core producer prices (excluding food and energy) in October was entirely due to falling vehicle prices, a spokesman at the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. Excluding cars and trucks, the core producer price index rose 0.1% in October. It’s the month when the government includes the new model year vehicles in its sample and tries to determine how much of the price change was due to quality improvements and how much is due to inflation. “These declines still seem extraordinarily large,” said Michael Gregory, an economist for BMO Nesbitt Burns. Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said the figures were “literally unbelievable.”
yopu know 7%/year tax increase and schools budget stayed flat…. I was half serious before when I talked about leaving NJ in a year or so. It is looking more and more definite now….
I do not know how the goverment raise inflation… Everything raises at about 10%/year right now… My company health insurance costs raised 12%, food – I see steady raises every 2-3 month in all grocery stores, gasoline – well it dropped for now, but count in 1$ increase and average it – still will be at 30% higher than lst year. Yet the PPI raised 0.01% in october…. Quite frankly I do not believe official figures – i think they are trying to hide the fact that middle class is deliberately destroyed by means of inflation/stagnant wages.
Al,
Any idea where you would go?
My wife and I are going to give it another year and see how things look then.
We don’t need to pull out the tinfoil hats just yet. I don’t think you need to doubt the numbers, but you should understand how they work.
jb
ck986,
A drop in rates would most certainly have an effect on the housing market. The first question is, does the rate drop manifest itself as a drop in short or long mortgages rates. Personally, I don’t think we’re going to see the long end fall dramatically, but the short end most certainly could. That drop in short rates would certainly make the coming ARM resets less painful (although certainly not pain-free).
The next question is, would the drop in mortgage rates be significant enough to offset the change in buyer psychology. Like you mentioned before, the last bubble saw housing prices fall in a falling interest rate environment.
It’s difficult to take the pulse of the consumer, if what we are seeing in the market is purely due to affordability, and not psychology, a downward move in rates could potentially stabilize the market. Personally, I don’t believe the conditions are set for another boom however. If what we have seen over the past year has been due to psychology, I don’t believe a downward shift in rates would have the same effect.
jb
Well I do like my new job in NJ it’s juts negatives of living here right now is way outweigh good job for me… (traffic/high cost of housing/rental – rentals here is higher that in most of California, high taxes, high population, climate.) We will go either back to west – Colorado and surrounding states or even further west – washington state, Oregon and so on – depends on the job – obviously I will keep working in NJ untill I get offer somewhere else(or my wife will get a comparable job in her field. But we will give it another year first…
Just so you all know – 2 bedroom 1200sqft apartment (built in 2000) in Greater Denver Metro area cost 700$/month. – that is instant 10000/year cheaper cost of living (since you pay your rent after tax) there compared to NJ.
and thats just an apartment. In my estimate I can have 20K less/year salary and still have more money left at the end. (even better situation after taxes)
Another monkeywrench to throw into the machine..
From Reuters:
Fed’s Poole warns aging population may curb economy
The aging U.S. workforce and a declining number of people who want to work may hit economic growth and make the U.S. central bank’s job harder, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said on Tuesday.
“If actual employment growth slows, we will have to make the judgment as to whether the slowing is consistent with a slowing of trend labor force growth or is a sign of impending recession,” Poole told the Chartered Financial Analysts Society of Philadelphia. A copy of his speech was made available to the media prior to delivery.
THE 21st CENTURY IN PICTURES
War and Conflict
View Slideshow
Poole, who is a voter on the U.S. central bank’s policy-setting committee, said there was a clear consensus that the retirement of the baby boom generation and a decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate — curbing the economy’s potential for growth.
He also warned there was a wide degree of uncertainty over the scale of the decline, with important implications for the Federal Reserve as it tries to juggle its dual mandate to ensure price stability and sustainable long-term employment.
Full text, from the St. Louis Fed.
http://stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2006/11_14_06.html
Hey can anyone pull an address for me? I think this is a house that was a few houses down from where I grew up
MLS Number: 2284118
Thanks (too bad I cant afford it LOL)
same here. NJ Jersey sucks!
To all the ones responsible…….
ROT IN HELL!!!!
Olcott
Hey I never said NJ suck… It is the people who governs it/overpopulation/ proximity to Wall Street with ridiculously high salaries whoch makes it a pain for everybody.
NJ have a lot going for it – very well developed port system, strong manufacturing base, avd developed railroad system – very important for manufaturing.
However – Manufaturing is diminishing a lot in a last few years due to impossibility for manufacturing to survive – (my company struggles every day, and if any lawsuit ever brought agains us we just close…) With swarm of hungry lawyers around (I just had my anti-trust training today – I wonder how do we even exists with all the regulations) it is impossible to beat Chineese/Indian companies in cost effectiveness….
I am sorry for asking but at what point do we have enough goverment/lawyers in this country??
Saying this NJ consistently loosing it’s advantage over other states/countries and I can see complete collapse in next 10 years.
Do I want to be around to be part of it?? NO.
DO I hope it will be turned around??? YES.
Al we need as one honest governer who will not be afraid of fighting goverment officials/unions which suck the life out of the private buisnesess.
But again “honest polititian” = oxymoron.
RE post 23:
Actually JB, there is very good reason to doubt the government’s numbers on inflation, employment, GDP, etc. Over the years the formulas for calculating these things have changed considerably. Now I’m not saying they were perfect before, but making changes can and does open the door for elected officials to put their thumb on the scale.
Inflation in particular is troubling, since things like Social Security are indexed to it. The government has a very powerful incentive to find a way to lower inflation because it actually saves it money.
Consider a visit to this site:
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs?
Along with anything the government might want to do, you also have the issue of incompetent reporting to consider. In things like housing numbers you can often see important facts obscured by the way information is reported, reading the reports yourself, and understanding how the numbers are calculated is a very important part of being properly informed.
Unquestionably buying the government’s version of reality on anything is a pretty sure sign that maybe a tinfoil hat isn’t such a bad idea afterall…
Alos the question on short rates has to include, when does the Fed ease,and how aggressively.
Current FF’s rate @5.25, if the next move is a drop of 25 to 50 basis points, no real positive impact on ARM holders, many who took out these loans when tHE FF’s rate was between 1 and 2 tO 2.5%.
I do not think there will be a massive rush of people to buy, those that have not have seen prices fall, and I think will wait for more declines, before they feel confident enough to buy.
David Lereah and the RE establishemnt are all saying the market will be back in 2007, I for one do not believe that, and it is funny none of these people ever give a reason as to why they believe that.
Plus in NJ, we have our own huge property tax problem. When every day towns in BC for instance have property taxes of 10k or more, and old capes and ranches, something is wrong.
Do not rule out property taxes when calculating price declines, it will play a major role in the e down turn.
Thanks Jim it is my neighbors house
Excerpt from thestreet.com
Housing’s Softness Has Long Reach
By Doug Kass
Street Insight Contributor
…
Earlier this month, Richard Fisher, the Dallas Federal Reserve’s President, explained the factors that contributed to the unprecedented boom in housing over the last six years.
In retrospect, the real Fed funds rate turned out to be lower than what was deemed appropriate at the time and was held lower longer that it should have been. In this case, poor data led to a policy action that amplified speculative activity in the housing and other markets. Today, as anybody not from the former planet of Pluto knows, the housing market is undergoing a substantial correction and inflicting real costs to millions of homeowners across the country. It is complicating the task of achieving our monetary objective of creating the conditions for sustainable non-inflationary growth.
Residential Fixed Investment to GDP
Click here for larger image.
Source: Guerite Advisors
Stated simply, too-low interest rates fueled the speculative activity in housing and stretched affordability, which has resulted in an ever-expanding inventory of unsold homes. Today, a record level of builders’ unsold inventory (including homes not started, homes started but not completed and completed home inventory) coupled with the residue of speculators’ unsold homes speaks to a hard landing in housing, despite the protestations of many.
It is no wonder the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a near 10% decline in home prices last month, and that many
homebuilders are reporting cancellation rates in excess of 40%
The chart also shows that, over the past 60 years, whenever residential fixed investment tops 5.5% of GDP and subsequently falls by at least 10%, a recession occurs (the recessions are depicted in the nonshaded areas of the chart). Already the ratio of residential fixed income to GDP (which peaked at 6.3% in late 2005) has now dropped by more than 10%. According to Guerite Advisors, the ratio has declined by another 17.4% in the fourth quarter of 2006.
Needless to say, there are other housing-related influences that will weigh negatively on forward consumption levels and lead to a period of blahflation) — adjustable option ARM interest rate resets; a clamping down on creative/aggressive financing (as defaults/delinquencies grow); the absence of personal savings; still-stretched affordability ratios of home prices to household incomes, etc. — that suggest the housing landing will be hard, serving as a strong headwind to economic growth by weighing on the consumer and countering the relatively stronger position of the corporate sector.
Can someone tell me if these houses went UC or were expired.
2275717
2295789
2276504
2313804
2319740
Thx in advance.
“Tightening appraisals produce a forced price reduction. Property can’t be sold if the bank says it’s not worth the asking price, he added.”
“‘It’s sellers who have to get acclimated. I tell them, ‘You have one house to sell, but buyers have many to choose from,’ said Tammy Maddente, board president of Metro MLS.”
“It’s payback time for buyers, real estate agents say. “‘Our biggest difficulty is keeping deals together,” said Maddente. ‘When something (bad) comes back on an inspection, they want to reopen negotiations.’”
hehehehe
FOX “News” is not the main media, imho.
Fox News is in fact the main media. Liberal newscasts like CNN are the one’s off the beaten path of the mainstream.
AL Wall Street saaries count for very little regarding NJ, peopel are so stuck on that concept, and on a whole it really does nto matter that much.
And the finger pointing began with:
In retrospect, the real Fed funds rate turned out to be lower than what was deemed appropriate at the time and was held lower longer that it should have been. In this case, poor data led to a policy action that amplified speculative activity in the housing and other markets.
wall streets salaries count a lot – if one person on the block was able to sell 2bedromm/abathroom 800sqft house for 700K – everyone esle on this block would want no less that that. Who can shell out 70K – wall street day traider, 25years old, making 300K/year. Nobody else can do it. So do not give me this bull that wallstreet salaries do nto matter…
IF they would not matter that realtors would not push their sales pitch starting with “easy acess to NYCbus/Train” even if it is 30 minutes drive to the next station.
The reality is NYC White collar workers getting routinelly 200K+ salaries – which would be ok, if they would have stayed in NYC – apartments there cost 1Mil+…
But they come to NJ, buy 1 House on the block for “cheap” 700K and drive everybody elses comp’s prices high….
Which is on it’s own ridiculous becuse even if all Wall Street with their 200 thousand work force will move to NJ it will still be only 2/80 (NJ is about 8 millions) 2.5% of people with those high salaries.
But combine that wit funny financing and flipper phsycology – buy a home at any price now and you will sell it next year for 25% more – so the more expensive hose you buy, the more money you will make – drove the prices to ridiculous high.
SO in this respect wall Street matters a lot – it is the way for Flippers to say – NJ have Wall Street – soem idiot will come from NY and buy my house for triple of what it cost, so I can retire rich…
Ohh yea and try to find the home without granith countertops……. Seriously, go to FSBO.COM and look….
“It’s payback time for buyers, Get used to it grubbers. Your going to have to learn to suck it up and give give give.
How does it feel?
Not fun anymore is it?
Go out an abuse a few humbled realtors and greedy dreaming sellers.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
‘Homeowners have been tapping into their home equity to get the cash needed to pay down credit card debt incurred not for luxury expenses, but for basic needs. Households cashed out $715 billion worth of home equity between 2001 and 2005. In the three years between 2003 and 2005, owners extracted $150 million more in equity from their homes than they did in the previous eight. Between 1973 and 2004, average home equity actually fell — from 68.3 percent to 55 percent. In other words, Americans own less of their homes today than they did in the 1970s and early 1980s.’
hehehehe
A bunch of pigeons bought into the consumer monthly pay ponzi scam.
Don’t get sucked into this. it will eat you up. All work and big monthly bills makes for a very boring life.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
DO NOT BAIL OUT THESE PONZI DEBT ADDICTS!
the show & tellers need be held responsible for their poor personal balance sheets.
JUST CUZ THEY WENT TO THE TROUGH TO MANY TIMES DOES NOT MAKE THEM ENTITLED TO GET OUT EVEN.
MAKE’EM PAY.
BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
Whitney E. Houston
bankruptcy?
From Reuters:
Countrywide CEO says housing slump has a year to go
The slowdown of the U.S. housing market will last through 2007 as inventories are pared enough to prompt a change in consumer psychology, the chief executive officer of the nation’s biggest mortgage lender said on Tuesday.
Mortgage lending has slowed as rising inventories in the housing market led to a “hard landing” for the industry after a decade of strong growth, Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) CEO Angelo Mozilo said at a Merrill Lynch & Co. conference in New York.
“We have another year of adjustment, or transition” in the industry until consumers believe home prices won’t decline, Mozilo said. “Various events will make the change take place and one of them is” a decline in available homes, he said.
Between 1973 and 2004, average home equity actually fell — from 68.3 percent to 55 percent.
Scary about it that it happened with the biggest increase in house PRICES IN THE US HISTORY ……..
Al Only 4.7% of all jobs in NYC are Wall St jobs, and of that number only a small minority are making the big big bucks.
In addition to having the option of living in NYC, if they can aford it, thay have as you note the ability to live in North Jersey, but they also have Westchester co, Nassau and Suffolk counties western and south Jersey, As wella s Rockland and Putnam counties.
Also the over whelming majority of people who live in NJ also work in NJ, being close to Wall St means nothing to them.
I guess we can agree to disagree, but Wall St’s impact on prices is in my opinion negligible.
One final note Wall St employment numbers are not back to their high of where they were in 2000, and they will never be.
Many good paying abck office and IT jobs are gone,and the next down turn on the street will see what is left of those jobs on the street gone too.
Al Says:
November 14th, 2006 at 2:52 pm
Between 1973 and 2004, average home equity actually fell — from 68.3 percent to 55 percent.
Scary about it that it happened with the biggest increase in house PRICES IN THE US HISTORY ……..
YOU ARE RIGHT BIG GUY. IT’S SCARY.
IT’S ONE BIG PONZI SCHEME AND THE NEW PARTICIPANTS ARE HESITANT TO SIGN UP FOR MONTHLY SLAVERY.
NO ONE EVEN COMMENTED ON THE COLLAPSE OF MEXICAN OIL PRODUCTION.
RING RING RING…
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Al,
Per your comments here & in other posts, I’m on a similar par/path & agree with you but just don’t see there being a better light in any other tunnel. To think that a dollar will stretch further in another state is the same logic that if interest went to 8%-9% then no one will buy; don’t drive around to find gas 2-5 cents cheaper.
I, like you, am exasperated as to how people got into their current houses. What happened to the pie & how are people doing it? Since 2000 annual raises barely meet or exceed cost of living increases & immediately go into the negative digits as health care costs rise. Money is a ponzi-scheme. Put 15% into the 401k, have another chunk taken out for Soc.Sec., have 6months of oh-sh*t-i-lost-my-job, + 6months of housing-oh-sh*t money for the house that costs twice your household income + tack on insurance, taxes & warranty. Got life insurance? Don’t forget food & entertainment! Hardy-har.har. Almost forgot: your paycheck also has to cover car payments to yourself for a new-to-you-used-car that will replace your current paid off used-car.
I’m gonna just keep saving my money & not bother buying & just continue to rent. “If you can’t change the world, change yourself.” I like to think of myself as being part of 3rd-world-version-2-point-something. The middle class isn’t disappearing, it’s just being repackaged & rebranded.
The PIGEON middle class is BEING BRAINWASHED TO BELIEVE THIS IS THE WAY YOU LIVE. MANY BELIEVE THEY ARE WEALTHY LIVING IN THEIR SHOW & TELL WORLD. A BROKE SERF.
THE HOUSING GRAVY TRAIN HAS DERAILED. PAPER WEALTH GOING POOOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFF!
NO MAAS TO OVER PRICED HOUSES.
THIS IS ONE THING YOU CAN CONTROL. YOU CAN CONTROL WHAT YOU SPEND ON ITEMS. DEMAND MORE FOR LESS.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
To think that a dollar will stretch further in another state is the same logic that if interest went to 8%-9% then no one will buy; don’t drive around to find gas 2-5 cents cheaper.
And I do not drive arount to find 2cents cheaper gas, but if interest rates would go to 8% my purchacing power would hmmm, I would be able to buy a 120K house than. So yes if interest rate will go to 9% – that would be the end of housing…. Along with NJ taxes – impossible for first time home buyers or for people who are moving up, and prices would drop significantly (I am talking 60% off current prices).
Nothing Less (bob):
re: post 51
I find your label of the “pigeon middle class” to be rather degrading. Here I thougt we were all just sheep.
I found a list NJ didn’t make it on. One up for NJ. [Wasn’t this cost something local politicians were whining about, anyway?]
http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/14/autos/deer_crash/index.htm?postversion=2006111414
Not to bring up passed times but before sept 11th a NJ salary could buy you a NJ home in a lot of markets. But now your dreaming if you think you can buy a home as cheap as than. The simple fact of the matter is, the amount of commuters moving into NJ is going back to the amount before Sept 11th, and thats now leaving a very large market of homes untouchable for most NJ workers. I don’t think we will see bottom until we have a more balanced housing market. There need to be 3 areas Lower class, middle class and rich areas. Until this balance is brought back I do not think the housing market will recover. I mean if we were to make a balance it should be somewhere in this neighborhood.
Lower Class Homes: Under 90k
Middle Class 100-350k
Upper Class 350K +
Now thats just a rough Idea but Until we have a pricing structure around this give or take I do not ever see this market ever recovering.
I mean the market is one big Upperclass party to make everyone think there rich.
When most people really are not.
I mean call me crazy for my price assumtions but if the market can rise 65%+ it can go down that much. Since most people have been treating the housing market like the stock market well than it can sure come crashing down like the market. The differnce is people think that they have more controll of the housing market, which yes than can slow the crash down some but the market will bottom out where it becomes affordable to the average Jerzian. We will know when we have hit or come close to hitting bottom when sales start to pick up. People can say it will drop x% but no one can guess. Even my 50-65% decrease could be wrong it could be less it could be more. So thats why if you want to buy now, do what I do and lowball a good %. Hey if you don’t get the house or the realtor will not put in your bid hey no biggie there are plenty of other places to bid on.
Last thing, the only reason I see right now a good time to buy is, no one knows will the market will bottom out so if you can find a desperate seller you may be able to put in a nice low offer ie 50% and than say in 2 years the market bottoms out at 35% off 2005 prices and you did get a better deal. But there are still many people in denail so Happy Hunting and enjoy the housing crash :)
NJ may as well be India or china, or perhaps
Mexico. Afterall , their are enough of them
here. Visit, New Brunswick, Dover,Palisades Park,Paterson,Newark, Trenton, Camden,Elizabeth,’Jersey City,Morristown,
These are like foreign countries. Look at the
signs.
Might just be better back home.
From the Star Ledger:
Mexicans are worse off in N.J. than in rest of U.S.
Jose Ortiz’s odyssey has taken him from a fruit stand in the central Mexican city of Cholula to a furniture store in Queens to a street corner in Red Bank, where he stood one recent morning, hoping to pick up a day job for $10 an hour.
The 35-year-old laborer said Red Bank reminds him a little of home, which is why he moved there from Queens last year.
“This town is more like our town in Mexico,” he said. “We had a yard there, it’s more quiet. My children like it here much better.”
But Ortiz quickly learned that living in New Jersey isn’t cheap. Even though he and his wife took in two adult roommates, they still have difficulty paying the $1,800-per-month rent on their three-bedroom apartment.
Now he’s $500 behind on his electric bill and uncertain about his family’s future.
U.S. Census data released today show Ortiz’s situation is not unusual.
Not only are Mexicans the poorest among New Jersey’s large array of immigrant groups, but Mexicans in New Jersey are worse off economically than in any other state, the new statistics show.
Reason #47 not to live in Denver:
Rocky Mountain Oysters……..
God forbid the unions give anything back from their”EARNED BENEFITS”, lets sell a highway for a quick fix.
That way we can continue overpaying our cops and teachers, along with FREE healthcare.
This will take care of the problem for a year or so, then we could sell the Garden State Parkway. How much power do the unions have?
Anybody ever hear of cutting spending????
Jim
Just got my new health insurance premium schedule for 2007. My weekly contribution will rise by 25% (my employer still take the tab for 75% of the premium). That is ADDITIONAL $22/week /$1144/year for me and $66 wk/$3432 for my employer for plain vanilla HMO PLAN! Oh forgot to mention that I don’t have a pension plan either. Why on earth state employees have full pension and don’t pay any for health insurance ?
Did I say my property tax went up 12% ?
cliffy, does your ER have a PPO option (and also a pre-tax account) or is the HMO the only offering?
Cliffy –
I just took a new job, and I have to pay close to 270 per month for my health insurance, and I am single and 25!
3000+ per year in health insurance. that should be my ROTH IRA money!
I just took a new job, and I have to pay close to 270 per month for my health insurance
Ouch that is harsh. I mostly work contract jobs since I am in the computer field and am always switching agencies and I thought I was getting ripped. I think I would pay alot more if I had to add my wife to my bennifits, but luckiy she has her own.
Well who knows maybe this state will surprise us all and turn themselves around and stop being greedy..LOL yeah that will happen just like all Pharma companies will stop being cheap and stop outsourcing there jobs to 3rd world contries and real estate agents will be honest and not saying the market will come back next year.
My employer offers PPO as an option , that is another $25/week. Since all our doctors are in the network I did not take the option. And yes all the premuims paid on pretax basis,also we have medical pretax spending account . I consider myself lucky to have health insurance coverage with company still paying the lion’s share,I have freinds ho have none
Just to give you an idea 7 years ago I was paying about $25/week or $1300 year (employer’s part was $75/wk $3900/yr) for traditional health insurance for family plan. Now I pay $4420/year and my company pays $13260.That is 140% increase. Unlike the housing bubble health care bubble is not expected to burst any time soon.
When I hear that public employees and unions pay almost nothing for health care, just make me wonders who is footing the bill, it is us tax payers
OK, as long as you’re paying less than the PPO. Right now, in NJ, many PPO options should be less, and you offset the DED/OON on the pretax. You must have a rich PPO with a copay of $15 or less [if there’s no indemnity, the big guys like a rich PPO, but it keeps the cost up].
Your increases sound right.