Welcome to another edition of Lowball!
Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.
The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.
The first table contains Lowball sales of greater than $200,000 off of the Original List Price.
| MLS# | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
| 2208171 | Franklin Lakes Boro (1120) | $9,995,000 | $6,900,000 | $5,400,000 | 46.0% | $4,595,000 |
| 2276318 | Millburn Twp.* (1612) | $4,500,000 | $3,350,000 | $3,000,000 | 33.3% | $1,500,000 |
| 2203111 | Kinnelon Boro (2315) | $2,150,000 | $1,449,000 | $1,360,000 | 36.7% | $790,000 |
| 2110543 | Bernardsville Boro (2703) | $3,925,000 | $3,495,000 | $3,350,000 | 14.6% | $575,000 |
| 2290235 | Franklin Lakes Boro (1120) | $2,899,000 | $2,395,000 | $2,395,000 | 17.4% | $504,000 |
| 2060526 | Hardyston Twp. (2811) | $1,199,900 | $975,000 | $850,000 | 29.2% | $349,900 |
| 2267697 | Bernards Twp. (2702) | $1,150,000 | $899,000 | $845,000 | 26.5% | $305,000 |
| 2276197 | Montclair Twp. (1613) | $1,300,000 | $1,150,000 | $1,000,000 | 23.1% | $300,000 |
| 2266610 | Chatham Twp. (2305) | $3,150,000 | $3,150,000 | $2,850,000 | 9.5% | $300,000 |
| 2262493 | Randolph Twp.* (2332) | $1,299,000 | $1,100,000 | $999,999 | 23.0% | $299,001 |
| 2235805 | Essex Fells Twp. (1606) | $1,399,000 | $1,250,000 | $1,100,000 | 21.4% | $299,000 |
| 2302394 | Madison Boro* (2318) | $1,350,000 | $1,199,000 | $1,120,000 | 17.0% | $230,000 |
| 2253939 | Bethlehem Twp. (1902) | $1,275,000 | $1,199,000 | $1,050,000 | 17.6% | $225,000 |
| 2269621 | Glen Rock Boro* (1122) | $1,349,900 | $1,249,900 | $1,125,000 | 16.7% | $224,900 |
| 2306707 | Bernards Twp. (2702) | $1,695,000 | $1,495,000 | $1,475,000 | 13.0% | $220,000 |
| 2297189 | Jefferson Twp. (2314) | $1,210,000 | $1,049,000 | $995,000 | 17.8% | $215,000 |
| 2279384 | Maplewood Twp. (1611) | $1,450,000 | $1,380,000 | $1,237,500 | 14.7% | $212,500 |
The second table contains Lowball sales of 20% or greater off the Original List Price.
| MLS# | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
| 2208171 | Franklin Lakes Boro (1120) | $9,995,000 | $6,900,000 | $5,400,000 | 46.0% | $4,595,000 |
| 2308230 | Plainfield City (2912) | $289,900 | $269,900 | $175,000 | 39.6% | $114,900 |
| 2279689 | Springfield Twp.* (2917) | $499,000 | $400,000 | $315,000 | 36.9% | $184,000 |
| 2203111 | Kinnelon Boro (2315) | $2,150,000 | $1,449,000 | $1,360,000 | 36.7% | $790,000 |
| 2276318 | Millburn Twp.* (1612) | $4,500,000 | $3,350,000 | $3,000,000 | 33.3% | $1,500,000 |
| 2304299 | East Orange City* (1605) | $345,000 | $345,000 | $240,000 | 30.4% | $105,000 |
| 2060526 | Hardyston Twp. (2811) | $1,199,900 | $975,000 | $850,000 | 29.2% | $349,900 |
| 2283791 | Newark City (1614) | $129,000 | $110,000 | $93,000 | 27.9% | $36,000 |
| 2267697 | Bernards Twp. (2702) | $1,150,000 | $899,000 | $845,000 | 26.5% | $305,000 |
| 2273201 | Union Twp.* (2919) | $625,000 | $499,900 | $460,000 | 26.4% | $165,000 |
| 2272845 | Belleville Twp.* (1601) | $449,000 | $329,000 | $331,000 | 26.3% | $118,000 |
| 2260978 | Belvidere Twp. (3003) | $374,900 | $292,500 | $280,000 | 25.3% | $94,900 |
| 2269348 | Bloomfield Twp. (1602) | $659,000 | $499,000 | $499,000 | 24.3% | $160,000 |
| 2096483 | Oxford Twp. (3017) | $210,000 | $159,900 | $159,900 | 23.9% | $50,100 |
| 2281540 | Wanaque Boro (2513) | $149,000 | $125,000 | $114,000 | 23.5% | $35,000 |
| 2253622 | Phillipsburg Town* (3019) | $169,900 | $149,900 | $130,000 | 23.5% | $39,900 |
| 2267777 | Nutley Twp.* (1616) | $389,000 | $319,900 | $299,000 | 23.1% | $90,000 |
| 2276197 | Montclair Twp. (1613) | $1,300,000 | $1,150,000 | $1,000,000 | 23.1% | $300,000 |
| 2262493 | Randolph Twp.* (2332) | $1,299,000 | $1,100,000 | $999,999 | 23.0% | $299,001 |
| 2271247 | Oakland Boro* (1142) | $400,000 | $349,900 | $309,000 | 22.8% | $91,000 |
| 2078041 | Blairstown Twp. (3004) | $785,000 | $639,000 | $607,500 | 22.6% | $177,500 |
| 2286766 | Kinnelon Boro* (2315) | $670,000 | $599,000 | $520,000 | 22.4% | $150,000 |
| 2291376 | Roselle Park Boro* (2915) | $345,000 | $325,000 | $270,000 | 21.7% | $75,000 |
| 2280702 | Glen Gardner Boro* (1912) | $249,900 | $199,900 | $195,900 | 21.6% | $54,000 |
| 2267586 | Livingston Twp.* (1610) | $499,000 | $429,000 | $392,000 | 21.4% | $107,000 |
| 2306498 | Jefferson Twp.* (2314) | $349,900 | $299,900 | $275,000 | 21.4% | $74,900 |
| 2235805 | Essex Fells Twp. (1606) | $1,399,000 | $1,250,000 | $1,100,000 | 21.4% | $299,000 |
| 2246672 | Roxbury Twp. (2336) | $514,900 | $419,000 | $405,000 | 21.3% | $109,900 |
| 2314793 | Scotch Plains Twp.* (2916) | $699,000 | $599,000 | $550,000 | 21.3% | $149,000 |
| 2282794 | East Orange City (1605) | $190,000 | $190,000 | $150,000 | 21.1% | $40,000 |
| 2265238 | Frankford Twp. (2805) | $379,000 | $319,900 | $300,000 | 20.8% | $79,000 |
| 2283944 | Madison Boro (2318) | $675,000 | $560,000 | $535,000 | 20.7% | $140,000 |
| 2269279 | Byram Twp. (2804) | $339,900 | $284,900 | $270,000 | 20.6% | $69,900 |
| 2246434 | Bernardsville Boro* (2703) | $199,900 | $179,600 | $160,000 | 20.0% | $39,900 |
An XLS file containing a full listing of sales can be found here: Sales-Nov06a.xls.
Caveat Emptor!
jb
Please note, some of these, at least the ones I have checked, had original listing prices that were pulled from thin air. I have seen some of these and I don’t need to see some of them if I know the area. I have seen homes come on mls that are clearly over priced by 70,000 to 100,000 based on anything that ever sold in the area. But say if they came in 70,000 to 100,000 lowere based on sales in the area,they would still be overpriced based on affordabilty.
KL
KL,
Good point. It seems like there is no rhyme (no pun) or reason regarding how the sellers are arriving at their asking price. I saw 2 comparable homes priced at 75k apart. I realize that this is the norm.
KL,
Illustrating that fact is one of the primary goals of this exercise.
I want readers to understand that, many times, asking prices might very well be “pulled from thin air” and are not based in reality.
Most readers do not have access to bulk sales data such as this. So, readers will often scan through the MLS and use asking prices as a gauge of the market, not the selling prices. Because of that, it’s very easy to get a very incorrect view of the market.
jb
This is precisely why I think 20% or 30% of the asking price means nothing. You have to find comparables sold in 1998/1999/2000 to come up with a fair estimate.
My rule of thump is find the price of a comparable in 1998/1999/2000 and tack on 3~5 % return every year. Depending on how much a premium you want to pay for the place.
That Montclair listing is interesting, looked up the tax records, was purchased for $1m in 2003.
2276197 Montclair Twp. (1613)
OLP $1,300,000
LP $1,150,000
SP $1,000,000
jb
Another point about price declines:
If there is no major recession in the US, I do think that there will be a 20% to 30% correction in housing that will bring the house prices back in line with long-term trends and with income/jobs/affordability etc.
But no one on this board should expect this to happen in 2 months. This will be a long drawn out process and I think it will be about a 10% decline each year until about 2008 when the flippers (25% of buyers) and option armers get squeezed out of the game.
This thread is going to remain at the top of the page today.
jb
Anti-Trump: it might be sooner then you think. the serious sellers I belive have finally seen the light, as we go into Thanksgiving, I believe many will be prepared to cut prices come significantly come Spring.
Lots of old timers, moving, job transfers, divorces, houses that people have inherited etc.
Come Spring if these people do not see a turnaround in prices, and I think the next few months will convince them that it is not happening, then cut they will, becasue they will also have to contend with all the new inventory that will come on in Spring time.
bergenbubbleburst:
There are sellers who understand the situation and are getting out. The listing in Montclair that JB posted above is probably one of them. He/she barely kept their capital but still lost out on carry and transaction costs. There are still some highly optimistic sellers who holding out for their price.
The problem these people face is that as they lower their price they are a few steps behind the market. For example when they list their house at $1M, the market may have moved to 900K. It takes them a couple of months of no/low-ball offers to realize that $1M is too high and they bring it down to say $900K but the market is now at say 800K.
On the other hand there are also very optimistic/un-informed buyers who are still buying up homes. I know this as I am monitoring stuff that is going into contract in the towns that I am looking. This is why I think it will take longer for this correction to play out.
Clotpoll:
Question for you. If a house is fairly priced how long would you expect it to take to go into contract in this market?
In my opinion there is sufficient demand for a home to be in contract in about 6 to 8 weeks if it is priced correctly.
From the APP:
Property tax plans leave a lot of question unanswered
Some recommendations of four legislative committees looking to cut property taxes are impressive, but don’t hold your breath until common sense economics rule Trenton.
New Jersey lawmakers are a spineless lot by nature; some of the better ideas won’t please unions or public trough-swillers. Like capping unused sick pay and limiting vacation time that can be carried over. Requiring employees to pay part of their health care insurance is good too. Most of us don’t find that shocking. Welcome to the real world.
The report’s language describing the idea to scrap annual rebate checks for a 20 percent tax credit for “as many taxpayers as resources allow” could not be any more cloudy. What does that mean? Nobody knows, including the people who thought it up. Plans to toss other thorny problems to more study groups are a cop-out.
Assemblyman Brian Stack, D-Hudson, issued a release saying, “I look forward to reviewing this exhaustive report …” He was on the committee. He didn’t read his own report?
JB,
RE: Montclair listing,
Anti,
You are right, loser on tranaction costs, plus any $ put into the house. In conjunction with this, lost opportunity on their down payment, even at 5% this may have been significant.
Puff goes 04 and 05 gains, back to 03, on the way to 00, maybe 98.
Historically it was taking people 7 years just to break even from transations costs (that is pre-2000’s). How everybody expects to get rich from the Home. Guess what:Home = Dead capitall. HOme does not produce anything.
IT DOES NOT CREATE VALUE. IT”S VALUE IS FIXED.
The only homes which CREATE VALUE are RENTALS. AND SINCE 2003 IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE TO BUY ANY!!!! PROPERTY IN US WITH POSITIVE RENTAL FLOW.
(My friend got into Landlord buisness in 1999 he was doing really well, so he decided to try buying my units anywhere in the country in 2003… Guess what he gave up after 6 month of looking!!! not only in “hot” markets but even in places like Montana, Ohio, and Idaho prices where x2 rental income.)
How reliable is NABE (see link below)?:
http://www.nabe.com/graphweek/gw061119.html
They are calling a bottom mid to late 2007
How do you lookup the lowball properties listing details? After they sell they’re no longer available, I assume, to anyone but an “insider”.
At one point someone posted agreat link for this purpose, but it doesn’t work anymore. Can anyone email the link to me? If so, send it to stbmc-relink@yahoo.com. Thanks!!
kc2nj,
My take would be to watch them over the next 3 months and see if they lower their projection yet again.
They are projecting new construction numbers which is only part of the RE picture.
Sal (#15),
The “back-door” client full report hasn’t been working for a few weeks now. It had been a useful tool for me to keep track of historical transactions. If someone has a replacement and can share it (discreetly perhaps), that would be wonderful!
Odd story out of the Boston Globe:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2006/11/16/a_house_a_phony_deal_a_lawsuit/
The buyer was perfect. Real estate saleswoman Karen A. Dotolo told builder John J. Santosuosso that she had found a wealthy Fidelity vice president willing to pay for the $660,000 house he was building in Plymouth. The buyer even picked out expensive granite counters, hickory cabinets, and natural oak floors.
Only one problem: The buyer didn’t exist, according to a lawsuit filed in Plymouth Superior Court.
But Santosuosso and partner Kimberly A. Ebner were unaware of that as they proceeded with what they thought was the imminent sale — reviewing sales documents signed by a buyer listed as one John J. Moran of Gloucester, according to the suit. Dotolo even told Santosuosso that Moran was the prospective buyer he had bumped into at an open house.
It was only after scheduled closings on the Sachem Road house were repeatedly postponed that the story began to unravel.
But no one on this board should expect this to happen in 2 months.
Well the declines have been comming down for a while now.
But in all seriousneess why cant they? I mean I townhouse went for 130k in 2001 and in 2002 it went for 244k. So it rose 114k in one year.
So why can’t they come down that fast? There is no real valid argument why they cannot come down that fast, just like there is no real valid explanation why prices rose so quickly
I mean we can speculate
Low interest rates
Exotic Mortages
Realtors
Buyers
Bidding wars
Flippers
Investors
etc. The bottom line is there is not any real explanation on why this all happened just a lot of specualtion.
So I would not rule out that prices cannot quickly decline. They can slow down for a bit but look at this idea and than reverse it
Seller A: 3 bed 2 bath sells for 300,000k in 2005.
Seller BL 3 Bed 2.5bath sells for 325,000.
in 2005
Another “Speculation” is sellers who saw there neighbor get x amount of dollars for there smaller place, so they figure they could sell theres for more.
Now reverse this and play it backwards
————————————-
Seller A: Needs to sell 3 bed 2 Bath
Sells it and can only get 250k
Seller B: 3 Bed 2bath house but smaller than seller A home well than if there is bigger and in a better location then mine I can probaly get 225k for mine
and that cause price to go down.
Right now we are in the part where people in the smaller house are trying desperatly to justify why the are selling there homes for the same price as seller A: or more.
But once we get over that hump as quick as prices rise will be as quick as they fall.
A lot of the houses for sale were bought during the bubble and people do not want to lose money on there homes so they will have to bite the bullet or stay put for many many years.
Home prices down 1.2% in third quarter
http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/20/real_estate/summer_house_prices_cool/index.htm?postversion=2006112010
HI all , I know it has nothing to do with NJ but it makes you think, plus i think the post is simply funny:
http://louminatti.blogspot.com/2006/11/californians-are-insane-part-7.html
(Replace the Californian @#$%box with NJ 1920’s fixer-upper… – At least in California it is always warm)
Homer
Little problem with your theory, both seller A & B must have a severe need to sell.
……..And………
It is easier for Seller B to get more if a buyer is willing.They’ll take it. It is harder for seller B to Take less if he is unwilling.
KL
Al (#21),
The following is my dump in KS:
http://www.nicebluehouse.com
That i’m renting out for $1600.
Bought @ 210K
Here’s a little something from our good friend David Lereah:
“Last year we had a record sales market and historically tight supplies of homes with buyers bidding over the asking price,” he said. “With the market in full transition, (my emphasis) buyers now have choices and sellers are more willing to negotiate – under these circumstances it’s no surprise that overall home prices are slightly below a year ago. We expect this trend to continue in the months ahead, but we’ll see modest appreciation in most of the country in 2007.”
See, everything is just fine. This is from the NAR’s third quarter SFH sales release:
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/mhp_2006q3_sales_confirm_market_transition.html
The related pdf with stats shows YOY price increases for both the Edison (+7.3%) and Newark-Union (+1.9) metropolitan statistical areas. Both are pikers compared to the Atlantic City MSA, up 12%.
For those inclined to look at the raw data, please be aware that in the alphabetical listing the Edison and Newark MSA are preceded by NY.
Sam Zell, the most visible and vociferous proponent of the public markets as the primary vehicle for commercial real estate, has aced those markets by agreeing to sell Equity Office Properties Trust to private-equity giant Blackstone Group for $19 billion
Zell selling….Ring ring ring.
It’s amazing how many dumb pigeons still exist after the main stream media has been reporting on the houisng bubble. Fools still paying near asking albeit much fewer, but nevertheless a few still exist. Good luck you Bagholding fools. Congrats to the sellers.
Booooooooooyaaaaaaaaaa
Bob
KC,
Nice abode!!. My brother in law lived in Kansas City, Kansas, beautiful homes. Your purchase price/rental income makes sense. Just about 10X. It was like that here back in 1998-2000. At this point it is somewhere around 25X.
SPRING 2007 HOUSING MASSACRE COMING TO A HOOD NEAR YOU.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Grim,
Just an anectdote or two about the current NNJ market. My brother and his wife are seelling there home in Madison to trade up into a bigger space (from 2 bdrm to 3) Luckily he had contingencies in place for the bigger house. He got lowballed on his 2 bdrm and went back to the owners of the 3 bdrm for a concession on price and got it.
Here’s a case where contingincies were not in place. In my neighborhood a family bought a house before selling their townhouse and are now chasing prices down on the townhouse. They have been trying to sell for over 9 months.
Caveat Emptor indeed!
Can someone pull an MLS for me? Just need more info, like DOM and address
MLS 2337803
Metro,
Lowballed in Madison???
Prices in the Northeast, down 4.8 percent, fell the most. Prices dropped 2.6 percent in the Midwest, 0.9 percent in the West and 0.1 percent in the South.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/20/real_estate/summer_house_prices_cool/index.htm?postversion=2006112011
By the way, I have patented the “Where is David Lereah” T-shirt.
READ MY LIPS GREEDY GRUBBERS—HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007 – NO REBOUND…NOOOOTTTT”””ING
Be very concerned grubbers. When all start to panic at the same time it’s to late.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Here’s a case where contingincies were not in place. In my neighborhood a family bought a house before selling their townhouse and are now chasing prices down on the townhouse. They have been trying to sell for over 9 months.
By how much have these greedy grubbers dropped their price?
It’s still overbloated.
MUCHO PAIN COMING!
Boooooooooooyaaaaaaaaaa
Bob
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA,
How about DeBLOAT, just love that one.
#13 Al
I bid a few multi unit rental buildings (10 Units and above) over the last couple of years. I was being outbid by investors who were literally subsidising renters to stay in their places. Basically buying at negative real cash flow. Guess they were looking at either condo conversion or cap gains on the property to far exceed the negative monthly cash outflow.
However, I have recently started to see some values in Jersey City, Perth Amboy, etc. I am holding back because I am afraid that builders/flipper will flood the rental market over the next two years with their unsold properties that will bring down the return on the rental market.
For now, I am happy with the 5% return from the savings accounts and the 10% + avg return from my stock mutual fund portfolio over the past two years.
Thanks BuyNextYear (post 17).
I’m hoping someone out there can get us that link – it will save everyone lots of time and trouble, instead of having to ask someone to look up a full listing.
Besides – why should it such “priveleged” information anyway?
Anyone able to help us out on this one?
Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 Says:
November 20th, 2006 at 12:32 pm
Sam Zell, the most visible and vociferous proponent of the public markets as the primary vehicle for commercial real estate, has aced those markets by agreeing to sell Equity Office Properties Trust to private-equity giant Blackstone Group for $19 billion
Zell selling….Ring ring ring.
Booya: I noted this item this morning and was thinking back to a post that Clot made last night about the dearth of retorts to his highlighting commercial REIT strength.
When Zells Bells start ringing, I think it is time to pause.
chicago
#19 Homer:
I hope you are are correct about the collapse.
Home prices tend to be sticky as there is a huge emotional factor that goes into a price of a house as opposed to a stock. I am just saying that the data out there now doesn’t point to an imminent collapse but more to a prolonged period of declining stagnant prices. That’s not to say the herd won’t start running in the opposite direction. They just might.
#24 Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 Says:
Don’t hate me, but I was a *greedy grubbing seller* about 2 years back and I found my sucker (sorry RE Investor).
But there are still plenty of them smart real-estate investment folks out there if anyone has a home to sell.
The ones that piled on to internet stocks in Jan 2000 and then decided that a house was a much safer investment as house prices will will *Never decline in value* unlike stocks.
Seriously believe that this run up in house prices is justified by fundamentals like:
No more land left in NJ
Extremely rich immigrants pouring in.
Terrific Income and job growth.
However, I have recently started to see some values in Jersey City, Perth Amboy, etc. I am holding back because I am afraid that builders/flipper will flood the rental market over the next two years with their unsold properties that will bring down the return on the rental market.
As fqr as rental multi-units property is concerned – up untill 2000 it was normal to calculate 15-20% vacancy rate into your rental income and break even with 80% occupancy rate – if you would have counted on the 100% occupancy rate for positive cash flow(or even to break even) you would never get a loan for this property…
Why did it all went down the drain in the last
5 years??? I do not know.
It must be all the illegal immigrants/wealthy ones who come to country and buy properties with cash…
“I am just saying that the data out there now doesn’t point to an imminent collapse..”
what data are you referring?
I disagree….House prices have falen quite sharply but alot more to go here in 2007 and 2008.
$75k -$80K avg incomes do not support prices at these levels. You dopes just can’t figure it out. It’s the LIAR Phoney loans that carried this bubble to such heights.
Booooooooooyaaaaaaaa
Bob
“# BC Bob Says:
November 20th, 2006 at 12:47 pm
Metro,
Lowballed in Madison???”
Yeah, Madison. I live in the Hackettstown area. Madison is not immune, even though it is desirable.
NOOOTTTT’ING IS IMMUNE. ACROSS THE BOARD MASSACRE IN SPRING 2007. SLIC’EM AND DIC’EM UP!
BE REALLY CONCERNED GRUBBERS.
I REALIZE A FEW PIGEONS ARE LEFT, BUT THERE ARE FEWER AND FEWER OF THEM.
BUST
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
If you look at the areas, they are falling outside NYC and than move inwards. Properties outside of an hours drive have been falling faster. My theory is that this will spread like a virus and move inwards as borderline towns will than look more compelling. Towns like Madison are becoming towns on the border and everything is moving inwards. NYC and 30 min commute towns are where some of the outer areas were earlier in the year. The virus is spreading…
Hard Place.
Homer,#18
As to why prices don’t come down as fast as they go up, is akin to why wages generally don’t go down. They tend to be sticky. Ask ChiFi, it is in any econ 101 book.
“…why wages generally don’t go down…”
Why?
Today CEO’s will just dump people like they are temps. No need to trim wages…dump people…quicker and easier…And the CEO’s are rewarded handsomely for just dumping people. Does not seem very difficult.
Booooooooyaaaaaaaaa
Bob
RAISE YOUR HAND IF YOU BOUGHT NEAR ASKING IN LAST YEAR…..
YOU ARE AN UNDERWATER PIGEON!
CONGRATS TO GREEDY GRUBBING SELLER…YOU BAGGED’EM!
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Bob (#40) said:
>> $75k -$80K avg incomes do not support prices at these levels
While I agree with this (and hope prices fall), I think It’s the Median income thats more important than avg.
I heard median income in NJ is one of the highest. Does anyone have those census numbers? And how does that compare with median home prices (compared to other states)
>>On the other hand there are also very optimistic/un-informed buyers who are still buying up homes
anti trump, you assume all buyers are optimistic and uninformed because they don’t agree with the future you and some others here have predicted? arrogant indeed. i thought 3 years ago prices were out of whack and would have to come down. well they preceeding to go up another 50%. timing is everything.
Median Income for NJ (Half make more, Half make less): 2003 – 56.353$ (Second in the nation after California).
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/34000.html
But for home buying Why is median Income more important than average household income????
Also there was no huge raise in Median Income in 2004/2005/2006 (I had a number of 56.733$ for 2005 Median Income but it was unofficial)
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/Ranking/2003/R07T050.htm
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSAFFHousing?_sse=on&_submenuId=housing_2
metroplexual Says:
November 20th, 2006 at 1:57 pm
Homer,#18
As to why prices don’t come down as fast as they go up, is akin to why wages generally don’t go down. They tend to be sticky. Ask ChiFi, it is in any econ 101 book.
my insipid ego-massaging…..
https://www.njrereport.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=116
grim:
By the way, the NJ Report Forum is officially a Spamorum. If you leave it open, you should just lock it.
Bob, Metro,
I live in Madison, small home, and prices have been falling here. 2 years ago every house in town from starter to high end had multiple offers. Now almost all sellers are dropping OLP. a couple of accurately priced homes sold quickly but that’s about it.
“…a couple of accurately priced homes..”
what’s an accurately priced house?
One that sells?
Boooooooyaaaaaa
Bob
Bob,
good question. what I meant was, certain starter homes, good condition, that were priced less than a comparably sized home in bad condition, sold within a month on the market. but that’s been the exception not the rule.
“…Now almost all sellers are dropping OLP…”
OLP are at Nosebleed prices anyway….Chop a ton off those fantasy prices…
Spring Massacre here we come…
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Will do, thought it was already locked.
jb
“…good question. what I meant was, certain starter homes, good condition, that were priced less than a comparably sized home in bad condition, sold within a month on the market. but that’s been the exception not the rule.”
These Pigeons are underwater now…..
Bababababa
BUST!
Thats quite interesteing that some people will pull there homes off the market becuase of the fact that they are not going to get what they want. That is probably up there on the stupidity chart. I have to laugh though, there is a house over in Hillsborough that was for sale at 329k and it was required that you buy an empty lot with in for about 1 million dollars. It sat on the market for about a year and than dissapeard from the MLS but its still for sale, not sure at what price, but if no one wanted to buy it when the market was doing better as far as home sales, why would anyone want to buy it now? To much wishfull thinking. Theres also another place for sale for about 380k and its for sale as is. And my favorite a 3 bed 2.5 bath townhouse that was for sale at 339k and the same place could only get 309k at the top of the market. Plus this place had mold in kitchen cabinents, needed all new bathrooms, new carpet and repairs galore. Needless to say the place did not sell and has been withdrawn and not relisted yet. I did make an offer but since its in a trust and it goes to the greedy kids they want over 300k for it. Maybe they could fetch close to that if they invested a little money into the places and got rid of the mold and put in new countertops. Far be it from me to say but I should not be able to life a kitchen counter top 3 feet in the air. And nice bathrooms could help.
People just make me laugh. Everytime I read some article about some schmuck getting stuck with 2 mortage I just laugh and laugh, or when I see a 500k home forelcosed on it always provides me with a nice laugh. I mean why should I feel sorry for people living above there means? Why shouldnt I have a good laugh when some jidiot didnt put a stipulation in there contract of a new place they bought? I think Dr Gump Said it best, Stupid Is as Stupid Does.
“These Pigeons are underwater now…..”
do you mean the folks that are buying now? even if the prices are 10-20% off 2005 prices? I guess so if we anticipate prices falling further.
>>a couple of accurately priced homes sold quickly but that’s about it.
very true. accurate means in comparison to other houses on the market. that’s how valuations have always been judged. the real telling sign of where this market is going will be the spring. it is possible spring could do better price and transaction wise than you might think if sellers price things more reasonable to current listings. no one really knows how many buyers are out there ready to purchase but i sure wouldn’t want to be trying to sell if i don’t have sizable equity built up.
Where can I get sold prices from before 1999 for Somerset county? I have tried both domania and taxrecords.com and they only go back to that date. I need sale prices from the mid 1990’s.
Thanks.
Considering 69% rate of home ownership in the country right now – the highest ever % – not that many buyers left from last 6 years of buying crazyness….. only what – 10 people in NJ and they are in this blog :)
“These Pigeons are underwater now…..”
Yes ! 10-20% off of what???…some fantasy bloated dream price or 20% off 2005 peak -prices? Big difference..
You see a number of these Greedy Money Grubbers have been attaching 5-10% increases to 2005 peak prices to their OLP’s. It is complete non-sense.
Take at least at a minimum 25% off of peak prices 2005 preferably 30% to get back to fair value.
NOOOOTTTT”””ING else
Bababababaa
Bleed’em dry
Bob
“Where can I get sold prices from before 1999..”
Reasonable year to start with comparables….then giv’em some appreciation like david the head mouth piece of NAR says inflation + 1 or 2% appreciation….
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
The housing bust is over, I’ll be shutting down the blog tonite….
Experts believe worst of housing bust over: WSJ survey
Nearly two-thirds of the economists polled in the Wall Street Journal’s latest forecasting survey believe the worst of the housing bust is over, according to a report posted Monday at WSJ.com. However, the 49 economists responding to the survey expect home prices to rise 2.8% this year and to fall by 0.5% next year. In addition, the average economists’ estimate predicted gross domestic product growth at a 2.3% in the fourth quarter. According to the survey, the economists expect GDP growth to remain at that rate through the first half of 2007 and to accelerate later in the year. The economists also predicted 107,000 new jobs a months over the next year.
I guess these overpaid schmucks can feel comfortable that the majority of them will be wrong, but this is okay cuz the other guy is wrong too.
A job security opinion. Do not deviate from the majority.
Richard,
that’s exactly what I meant. accurate in terms of comparing to how similar homes are priced. the homes I was referring to were all starter homes. I don’t know if the same logic applies to all price levels. I’ve never been a million dollar home buyer, so I don’t know! lol.
2283944 Madison Boro (2318) $675,000 $560,000 $535,000 20.7% $140,000
Use this one as an example. Lets see what kind of deal this pigeon got.
What was last sale price and date? If not more than 8-9 years ago show as many sales dates as possble… Thanks
This just in…
Nearly two-thirds of the economists polled in the Wall Street Journal’s latest forecasting survey believe the worst of the housing bust is over
And again I will ask who will be buying all these unsold homes? I guess we were all just taking a break from buying this year. I hope people on wall street get laid off and have no money and have to eat Welfare cookies
PS how come my paychecks not getting any fatter?
http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/20/real_estate/summer_house_prices_cool/index.htm?postversion=2006112014
Home prices down 1.2% in third quarter
Prices in the Northeast, down 4.8 percent, fell the most.
>>
these are September numbers.
From what i understand , they are reporting contracts signed in July/August. Am i right?
Besides – why should it such “priveleged” information anyway?
It shouldn’t be priveleged, just paid for, as I do.
Public access ( paid access) might reduce my costs??
That would be nice.
KL
I have my doubts on these numbers..+3.6 in NY/NNJ and 7.3% in Edison? Didnt the price fall YOY in these areas
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortgages/home-values1d.asp
In case the bubble isn’t over, I think we need an official NJ Bubble Museum. Could maybe build it in Xanadu, with realtors as docents. Visitors could tour half mill 2/1 POS Capes, que up for bidding wars, input income into online terminals to see what they can afford. Then go through an interactive shopping experience featuring open houses at your dream price. Add on those extra features galore. Could be fun, and real educational for the school kids. Oh, and we could have an official In Memorium to Grim and the NJ Bubble Blog. See you there!
I’ve got the most recent NAR Q3 data by MSA, I haven’t had a chance to post anything up about it.
jb
About post# 71
The post did not make sense – wages are not keeping up with inflation but they are rasing??
“The striking feature of this expansion has been that … real wages for the typical worker haven’t risen that much – but it is a huge increase????
Plus medicare rose 12% last year, housing rose 88% in NE over 5 years – which is what 18% a year – and they are talking about 4% increase in salaries???
Come on, lets get real here – real inflation is more like at 5-6%/year right now. If something increasing uinflation beyond what goverment like to see – well goverment excludes that from inflatiuon calculations…. I know that every year I have less and less money to spend on housing, and housing raising like crasy…
Homer Simpson Says:
November 20th, 2006 at 3:44 pm
PS how come my paychecks not getting any fatter
it is because Only CEO’s are seeing those increases in salaries – 20% of CEO salary increase from 10M to 12M and it looks like 2000 people got 4% increase to their meager salaries!!!! what a joke this paper is
Metro,
Was being sarcastic about lowball in Madison.
“Nearly two-thirds of the economists polled in the Wall Street Journal’s latest forecasting survey believe the worst of the housing bust is over,”
This is the best news I have read all day about housing!!
Sorry Bob,
My sarcasm radar is down. I was just stating a cautionary tale.
So who are the other third of economists in the WSJ poll? I mean they are the smart ones right?
#48 Richard:
As i have said before, I have no problem in people who want to go ahead and buy a house now. The data/stats is out there for people to study and make their own decision. Some people treat buying a house as an important financial decision. Some people get emotional about it.
As for me, I remain completely bearish on the RE market for next two/three years. Call me arrogant if will, but I hope I am entitled to my opinion as you are to yours.
Richard, instead of making personal attacks, why don’t you come up with some facts and data why people should buy a home that they cannot afford with a conventional mortgage or even a 5 or 7 ARM?
“I hope people on wall street get laid off”
Homer,
Not with you on that one. However,agree with everything else you say.
“i thought 3 years ago prices were out of whack and would have to come down. well they preceeding to go up another 50%. timing is everything”
Richard,
There have been some posts here today where houses have recently sold at their 2003 prices. Yeah, timing is everything. With all the data out regarding the state of this industry, it is pretty obvious that the time to buy is not now.
I do agree with you about prices being out of whack, that’s why I sold.
#60 Homer:
Some folks really don’t want to sell, but unless they find the sucker at the right price.
I know someone who bought a house in the DC Metro area in the last boom (Late 80s for about 350K). Though it seems chump change now, that was a lot of money back then to pay for a house. Soon after we went into the 90/91 crash and similar homes in the development were selling for about $250K. He could afford to make the payments so he held on paying a 350K mortage on a 250K house. Only in the current boom/bubble did the price go back above what he paid. If for some reason he was forced to sell in the 90s, he’d owe the bank about a 100K.
metroplexual Says:
November 20th, 2006 at 4:48 pm
Sorry Bob,
My sarcasm radar is down. I was just stating a cautionary tale.
So who are the other third of economists in the WSJ poll? I mean they are the smart ones right?
When 100% say the worst is yet to come…..that is the time to buy…..it’s called “capitulation”…..
Chi,
BINGO!!!!!!!!! Everything else is just chatter/noise.
Bost:
It appears as if all the propaganda is being moved into place to create a nice “false bottom” for the bulk of the public to sucked into in early 2007………
JMHO
[sleepy] chicago
Chi,
Wouldn’t be suprised to see a couple of “upticks” along the way. I agree, I will be taking a nap until the 4th quarter of 2007.
I plan on hitting the snooze button this spring. Maybe I’ll start opening my eyes in late ’07 and be wide awake in 2008.
Hey anyone have access to mercer county mls? If so anybody hook me up with the schnay place in Ewing Township. MLS ID#: 4840717
I have a strange situation. I was chatting with a neighbor, who is a realtor. Told her I want to sell the house. A casual conversation, no contracts. A week later she calls and tells me she has someone anxious to see the house. I tell her it’s a mess and needs repairs and no where ready to be shown. She asks me how much I want. I tell her 900k and i let her show the place. Today she calls to tell me an offer is coming in tomorrow and the other realtor says ‘it’s close to asking price.’
Soooo… now I’m thinking that I asked too little, I have another neighbor who is asking 1.2 mil. but has been for sale forever. Please, what do you guys think ????
BTW, the neighbors house is comparable to ine except i have a 2-car garage, he has none. I have park and lake views, he does not. I mean… the house is not even really for sale yet.
zac:
get your lawyer involved, these real estate
agents lie, tell stories, believe their own
stories, and will continue until all offers
go thru your attorney’s office. Then the BS will
stop.The worse that can happen is you say no.
That’s great no commission right? no contracts.
Good for you.
Unless of course you listed, I hope the buy does’nt fall thru – now that your listed and all. (:
KL
I am not listed, no contracts signed , nothing but conversation at this point.
Just heard the TV commercial:
“Their house has been on the market for months, and the owners must sell now, what will they do? Tomorrow on the next Oprah at 4:00PM.”
Housing bust on Oprah! It’s all over Greedy Grubbers!
#98 Zac Says:
Hope you can trust this person. You may want to make sure that they don’t take the listing and then have the *buyer* back out.
If you are serious about selling you may want to get the agreement executed with the seller and the deposit in escrow before you sign the listing contract which you will have to anyway for them to get the commission at closing.
#98 Zac Says:
About the price no harm in pushing the envelope and trying maybe $999K. More than that maybe a stretch as you have a similar home gathering dust for $1.2M in your neighborhood.
Thanks Antitrump – I was thinking 975. I mean i got an offer already and only one person saw it and it’s not even for sale yet. Thats why i was asking you guys if maybe i could get more.
anyone have any data on rental vacancy in NJ?
avg rental price? etc…
I am trying to keep a gauge on the rent vs. own arbitrage gap.
Thanks,
SAS
Careful Zac. You may be deemed a “Greedy Grubber” soon!
Seriously, if neighbor realtor speaks of listing, say, “why don’t we just sign a permission to show form for a one party listing?” Blow her away with that. The form is exactly what it sounds to be. This form, if she knows enough to produce one, will get her a (very) modest commission (negotiate from 1% to 2.5 tops) for just having a conversation, yet protect you from entering into a typical listing agreement (when you weren’t even about to do that in the first place!).
Whew, you blew ME away with that one, never heard of it. THANKS very very much.
“Greedy Grubber”
SAS Says:
November 20th, 2006 at 10:41 pm
“Greedy Grubber”
I threw “greedy grubber” into the thesaurus and received “rapacious peon” in return.
“And who are the really clever men, after all? Money- grubbers, every one of them, from the first to the last.” -F. Dostoyevsky (The Idiot)
So, it is really the “greedy” part that gets us.
Grubbing itself can be done in an honorable manner.
lol Pat:
When I get back into RE Investments, I will be a “Honourable Grubber”
To the person who got the 900K offer, why don’t you get some other agents in to give you a market evelauation? If the 900K is within a a couple percent of what other agents say then maybe you’ll feel more comforatble selling. Remeber the old saying that a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. It seems that your fisrt offer usually tends to be the best. You know how the market is so why not take it but make the sale “as is”, so they don’t think they can get any concessions in attorney review. Although I think that you need to figure out if you really want to sell first. If my instincts are right they’re probably going to offer 800K or some other lowball offer. Don’t think that a 900K offer is what’s coming in.
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