From the Daily Record:
Experts expect home prices to drop in ’07
So, what’s going to happen to home prices in 2007?
Kathleen Camilli of Camilli Economics thinks they will rise by 5 percent.
Of 58 forecasters polled by BusinessWeek (Dec. 25-Jan.1), she was the most optimistic. The consensus: a decline of 1.7 percent.
The most pessimistic: Wayne Angell of Angell Economics, who predicted a drop of 15 percent. (The predictions were for the fourth quarter of this year to the fourth quarter of next year.)
Even more gloomy is the author of an article in the same issue, Peter Coy.
If history repeats itself, he writes, “It’s likely to take 15 years or more for many parts of the country to get back to their inflation-adjusted peaks.” In 2007, he believes, prices probably are going to fall further in many markets; where they rise, it will be less than the inflation rate.
His advice to homeowners: If you must sell and are having trouble, “cut the price by an extreme amount.” Advice to buyers: “Bargain hard.”
His overall advice: “… right now is not the ideal time to buy or move up, even with the recent price declines.”
Generally, BusinessWeek thinks that the economic outlook for 2007 is “pretty good.”
FYI Bruce Toll dumped another $15 million worth of TOLL….UNBELIEVABLE ?!!!!!
19-Dec-06
TOLL BRUCE E
Director
500,000 Indirect Sale at $31.62 per share.
$15,810,000
The current housing condition is good to fair, I have seen homes selling in the area of North Bergen. If priced correctly and in good condition; I would say it takes about 45 days to get a good offer. January 15 will start the spring selling season; I am optimistic.
Bye Bye
I’m in the Ft. Lee area & nothing sold in the last week or two above 300K, according to the paper that provides the weekly transaction. What sold were crappy condos/co-op below 300k.
I’m keeping an eye out at several places & as benchmarks in this CRASH. What I noticed is that back in march ’06, there were 1 or 2 houses in the 500-599K range. Now there are a bunch, & some of them are actually quite nice -not sh*tboxes, but they’re still not selling. There is now, since last week a house in the 400K range for a first time in a while & a tare down sh*tbox in the mid 300K that had been on the market for a while since the spring & dissappear about 2 month ago.
One particular house is obviously a flipper that started in Feb ’06 at 669k, then 649k, 629k & now 599k – all different agencies -he bought it in the mid 400k in 2004.
So this thing still has many full moons to go.
What were the ‘experts’ predicting for 2006 a year ago today? Just curious. Would be fun to see how close they were to their predictions. I recall most people saying it would be a ‘good’ year, but not as great as 2005. I don’t think anyone predicted declines.
-Richie
New Videos on the state of REAL ESTATE MARKET !!!
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=78
Hey Broadband-
Think Toll woke up that morning, panicked and decided to dump 15M of stock? Did you think to take a look at public disclosures to get a feel for Toll’s pre-announced stock liquidation? He’s been selling for months.
Bob Toll is not Sam Waksal.
Robert still owns 16,000,000 shares and has been buying in DEC 06′..http://biz.yahoo.com/t/98/588.html
Not an optimist:
Crappy co-ops and condos under 300K, sorry that some of us can’t afford a 4K a month mortgage payment and are living within our means.
I hope that was not your intent but that came off really snobby.