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Happy holidays everyone, I wish you all the best.
jb
Does the divergence in the Dow and transports have anybody scratching their head. The %’s may be a little off by day’s end but currently,Dec. #’s, the Dow is up 1.4%, transports down 4%.
JB,
Same to you and all on this blog. Thanks again for the tremendous work that you do!!
The long-end of the bond market has me scratching my head today. Big moves given the tame PCE numbers today.
On another note, the malls are absolutely packed this afternoon.
jb
wrote this one the other thread…..
chicagofinance Says:
December 22nd, 2006 at 1:52 pm
supposedly it should move through 4.70%
however, between now and January 3rd-4th, consider everything as noise
James Bednar Says:
December 22nd, 2006 at 1:45 pm
On another note, the malls are absolutely packed this afternoon.
jb
yeah but were people’s hands full; were registers ringing; and were people paying full price?
“yeah but were people’s hands full; were registers ringing; and were people paying full price? ”
– No, i heard people were bidding below the offer and getting hit aggressively..atleast at walmart and jcrew…
Big move up in yield today. Nothing to read into yet. May just be hedging before the quarterly refunding.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/16314121
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
I believe Circuit City’s recent performance is indicative of the current state of retail in the U.S. The American consumer has become increasingly incentive-oriented, almost to the point where price or quality are not deciding factors. Nobody buys unless they think they are getting the bargain of a lifetime. Years and years of sales (or rather, intermittent reinforcement) have finally trained the consumer into simply avoiding non-discounted merchandise. The best recent example of this was the GM “Employee Pricing” campaign.
A great way to increase short term sales (margin? what margin?), but you left with a consumer base that will refuse to pay retail.
jb
“Nobody buys unless they think they are getting the bargain of a lifetime. Years and years of sales (or rather, intermittent reinforcement) have finally trained the consumer into simply avoiding non-discounted merchandise.”
….and this is starting, note: only starting to gravitate to the RE market.
The malls are packed, yet the retailers will all report “stale” earnings. Go figure. Where’s all the $$ going?
-Richie
2007 Spring Housing Massacre coming to a hood near you.
Keep pulling off inventory grubbers and starving realtors….you will not be welcomed with open arms start january. You are in for a HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT!
BLEED”EM DRY!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
“Why would anyone stretch to spend 40% of his or her monthly income to service a $700,000 mortgage on a condo valued at $500,000, especially when there are plenty of comparable rentals that are far more affordable?”
“Basically, zero-down, non-recourse mortgages give borrowers a free put option should real estate prices decline. The bigger the drop, the more incentive there is to exercise”
Homeowners have a free put!!! Never thought of it in that manner. They don’t need a margin clerk, they have a free put. The complexities of modern day lending, excess liquidity at its best!!!
12/22 article found at;
http://www.europac.net/#
#9 Well, if Diana researched it, then it must be true. NAR sales data has a 1% margin of error, huh? Guess I can stop researching my local sales and inventory, and start watching more network TV.
[DELETE]
There go all my spreadsheets.
J.B., you gonna delete all your data now, too?
Oh, wait..housing is local, data is delayed..hmmmm, where’s that Recycle Bin icon….
I agree, the malls are nuts today. Long lines at the register at Macy’s. Sharper Image was slow but isn’t it always?
“‘I would just emphasize that all real estate is local and there will be markets in this country that will continue to experience some pain in 2007,’ said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. ‘It may be a 2 percent drop, a 5 percent drop. Maybe it even gets to be an 8 percent drop in that area.’ Lereah said about 25 percent of the country falls into that category.”
“Nobody buys unless they think they are getting the bargain of a lifetime. Years and years of sales (or rather, intermittent reinforcement) have finally trained the consumer into simply avoiding non-discounted merchandise.”
Thus the reason for my website:
http://anticost.com
:)
jb
JB,
May I ask why that graph I generated on the population change thread got deleted in moderation?
Just curious.
Well, well,
Just saw this post by Richard, yesterday under the lawyer thread yesterday, #’s 76 & 77. No reason to respond there, it will just be lost
“who here is worth $2 million+ in assets?” “why don’t you smell what you’re shoveling?”
“get off the blog and make some money. maybe you won’t bitch as much.”
Richard,
It seems to me that the only one who is arriving at delusional conclusions is you. I won’t even comment on your net worth statement. If I did , I then become a clone, a D*ck, I mean a Richard. D*ck, Richard, a coincidence???
It seems to me that that are constantly reinforcing your/your wife’s decision to purchase. Maybe you were resistant, maybe she couldn’t resist the shops. It really doesn’t matter, whatever floats your boat. In my opinion, when somebody trys to defend everything, they actually defend NOTHING. By the way, where I resided, Red Bank, had a downtown that Westfield could not rival. What does that mean?? Absolutely nothing, just a response to your rhetoric.
Stop criticizing those on this site who rent. If I was starting out today, I would not be able to afford to buy this market.You are constantly trying to come across as an elitist. Do you wear some crown??? A crown, to me is just a freaking hat that allows rain to pond on a brainless head.
Regarding smelling what you shovel; if you took the time to get your nose out of your 5 Wall Street “friends” *sses, your view may not be so cloudy/distorted.It sounds to me that you are a Wall Street wannabe. Not a big deal, I work with 300 right around me. Why do we have time to blog??? If you knew anything about the markets and how they trade, you would not ask that ridiculous question. But I realize, you are clueless pertaining to this, not a problem just an observation. Some of my cohorts have been in the bar all afternoon, some are home, some are blogging. Who says we work the 9-5 shift. Maybe some work Australian, Japanese, or European markets/hours?? Is it possible that markets may only be busy 1/4 of the time during their specific trading hours??? Go ask your Wall Street “friends”.
OK, you made $ in RE. Congratulations, you are a genius. I always have stated that I was merely lucky. Bull markets tend to make geniuses out of idiots, for a temporary period of time. RE was always a good “investment”, to me, and I believe will be going forward after all the excess, s*it is wrung out. However, when this market changed and resembled a grain market in the middle of a drought, some were prudent, saw the inefficiencies, inbalances, understood that in no way, shape or form could this sustain itself. They then took their chips off the table. They monetized their “paper” profits. Others are/will be watching their paper profits go PUFF. What’s the worst that can happen to those on the sidelines?? RISK/REWARD?? I can jump right in and buy,right now, at 10-15% off 2005, get a free Mercedes, free closing costs,free mortgage payments for 2 years, etc… In conjunction with this, my principal grew. If you are wrong what’s the worst that can happen??? RISK/REWARD???
You live in a lovely town, that’s great. Stop trying pounding into your head your justification. However, constant reinforcement does work, go ask Pavlov’s dog. What is important now is this works for you. Also, please stop calling those that have been long gold, for 3 years, as being arrogant. Maybe foresight, not arrogance. Some individual’s attempt to come across as a thoroughbred. More often than not, they are merely wrapping the rear.
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices
Booyah,
LOL.
Everyone enjoy the holidays even you grubbers and starving-desperate bunch.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
READ MY LIPS:
NO SPRING REBOUND!
“….Dick, I mean Richard.”
I got it. Quote from Clarence Boddicker [Durwood Mulroney] – RoboCop.
Booya: but what do you really think?
Chi,
Not from RoboCop, didn’t see it. Just a layman’s analysis.
You questioning the sincerity of his holiday grubber wish?
Response with #20–
I am worth over 3 million $$$, but I have sold my house– in Flanders– and now live in an apartment.
In fact in the last 2 years I have sold 3 houses– because the bursting bubble has a LONG way to go.
I can relate to these people, in fact I am one of them , except that I am a blue collar worker, that works 6 to 7 days a week.
Realtors and Flippers have screwed the middle class along with teacher and cop unions.
My kids cannopt afford to live in NJ.
So to the IDIOT that faults this board –Go To Hell, you WILL get burned by the coming recession. I can and will weather it.
Jim
JB:
My first-hand observation of sales. Years ago when in retail we would put things on sale and they would fly out the door at 25%. Then that number moved up to 50% if we wanted to move items. I left the business when people became indifferent to a half-price clearance sale.
Everybody thinks that they deserve a deal.
Love, peace and joy to all.
Sincere joyful Hanukkah חנֻכה wishes.
Happy Christmas, one and all,
A healthy, blessed حج ,
and and early Thiruvalluvar Day.
Jim, #29,
Kudos to you!! The prudent recognize/recognized an irrational, way overbought, unsustainable mania/bubble.I say congrats to you!!! Others will say you are a wannabe renter. To each his/her own.
Chi,
How did you like Schiff’s statement about the nothing downers, “They bought a free put”. I may not agree with him 100% of the time. However, I feel that statement rings loud and clear. Who needs a margin clerk??? I have a free put!!! PRICELESS!!!!
May I ask why that graph I generated on the population change thread got deleted in moderation?
Didn’t get deleted, just stuck in moderation. Two links in a reply will get flagged for moderation.
jb
Thank you , Bob
2007 will be an awful year for real estate and NJ.
Its in the cards,Grim is doing a tremendous job in spite of the crap the realtors and politicians are saying/ pushing.
Quote’s of the year Bush— go out and spend , spend , spend.
Corzine– Be Bold , Be bold , Be bold{ then he takes everthing effecting the teachers union off the table.
Stay tuned here to this Blog for reality, we are just at the start of real estate fall.
Happy Holidays to all!!!
BC Bob Says:
December 22nd, 2006 at 4:44 pm
“They bought a free put”.
The more cynical the comment, the better….basically tying together the house and financing as one======> they effectively have a call on a private residence, with the premium being the ongoing mortgage payments.
The put isn’t costless, in the sense that the premium is a shitcanned prersonal credit profile. Still, SMALL price to pay.
[allow me to add] personal credit profile…..in the even of default….
“The locals may have an idea of actual pricing in the real estate business, but also a negative incentive to report any declines; it’s bad for business! The only way to get reliable data is to trace auctions or to gather the data outside of the traditional channels. Recently some high-end homes were auctioned next to a famous resort. The sellers were expecting at least to get somewhat better prices than the 20% hit the brokers were talking about, hence the PR effort to buoy the final sale price. The results of the auction stunned almost everyone. The prices came in between 40-45% below what was expected, reflecting a much weaker marketplace despite a great deal of favorable attention generated by the event”
Some interesting charts to ponder, subject to one’s own interpretation;
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/williams/2006/1222.html
Merry Christmas to all and Happy Holidays to the rest…!! (Attempt at trying to be PC)
Peace, Love & Joy, Fly Low & Be Free!!
JB ,
When is the first Annual Holiday Party for the Blog Bunch, or are you going to wait until the Spring Massacre to celebrate.
I’ll have a Scotch (Single Malt) at least 16 yrs old… Anyone else?
Tan
BC Bob:
Do you watch auction sales?
Every month, I count the number of pages of sales for Bucks Co., Pa. Last year, a few pages, maybe 8. It’s up to 21; same formatting. Definitely not NAR scientific data with a 1% deviation, but some people do watch trends.
Hi all.
I think many of us (including myself) have postponed our buying plans until the autumn of 2008. But was curious if this blog will continue till that time.
JB??
BC Bob, you’re either bipolar or schizophrenic. i’d laugh if i wasn’t a wee bit concerned for you. keep making up lies and distortions about what i say and guessing what i do/what i’m worth. you’re batting 0, but then again it has nothing to do with me and everything to do with feeding your own ego.
sure jim, i’m sure you’re worth $3 million. why not throw a 0 on the end while you’re at it?
I’ve asked this question in another thread, but reposting it here.
I was wondering why did the seller have to hire a 6% fee agent during the good years (2002 -2005)? In those years, seller could have put any price on his house, done a little cleaning/homework and then gone FSBO route.
6% is BIG. For e.g. say in 2 years the house increased 33% in value in those years. So a 300K house became 400K house – a rise of 100K. Now why would a seller 24K of that 100K profit to a realtor?? He’s essentially sacrificing one fourth of his profit, esp. considering that the house would have sold even without the selling agent.
Realtors on the board, can you please comment.
Jim,
Has your blue collar work you made you worth 3 million dollars or are you a trust-fund baby that has found himself?
“With Bay State home-foreclosure rates soaring, Mayor Thomas M. Menino is calling on the Legislature to tighten mortgage-lending rules. ‘We have all seen the dramatic spike in foreclosures, and we know that a large part of the problem is caused by lax oversight of mortgage companies,’ Menino said.”
After the fact
“The fate of the housing market is no longer in the Federal Reserve’s hands, since psychology has now become the driving force behind the decline in home prices.”
“As everyone knows by now, the 17 hikes in interest rates engineered by Fed policymakers since the middle of 2004 have punctured the housing bubble, the same bubble that the Fed, itself, helped create.”
“As prices fell, the balance of power began to shift from sellers to buyers. Sellers soon found themselves throwing an open house but with no one even bothering to show up, much less make an offer. Buyers, though, could care less about the outlook for interest rates: They smell blood.”
“And there’s no guarantee that sales won’t go lower, especially if the Fed hikes interest rates further. But even if rates stay the same, the damage has been done. Once psychology turns, it takes a long time to reverse.”
Buyers, though, could care less about the outlook for interest rates: They smell blood.”
In reference to 42 and 44.
I made money in contracting[ own business] and real estate, I still own 4 apartment buildings in NJ and Pa., all free and clear.
I am 55 and my age shows in my hands from years of hard work, my daughter graduated college of NJ.
Richard, I do not have to prove anything to you, but I gladly will, just to show how wrong you can be about this board.
You don’t have to believe me, but it is reality, just as much as this bubble will burst.
Happy Hanukah, Merry Christmas, Joyous Diwali, Happy Kwanzaa, Kul ‘am wa enta bi-khair! (even though I’m late for Ramadan),
and finally, may you all be touched by his noodly appendage!
Ramen
ATT (#43)-
Your statement (aside from being a theory tidily presented as a given, with happy numbers of your choosing) is based on the assumption that in a hot market, all homes have a certain price that they are somehow guaranteed to draw. That also presupposes that all potential buyers in a given marketplace are willing to pay the same price for a home. To use the stock corollary so favored in these parts: not all potential buyers hit the bid…even when the market is hunky-dory. Bottom-feeders (ie: investors and tire-kickers) always know where the fishin’ is good…and that’s not the homes marketed by agents looking to get their sellers more.
Things would be great if your home came with a price tag and barcode on the siding. Then you could just scan the house, tender payment and be done. As I’ve said here a few times, ANYBODY can make a sale. However, it is unwise to assume that a steady stream of high-profile, A-1 buyers will come bearing gifts- even in the best of markets- to any piker who invests in a Sharpie and a Home Depot “Sale by Owner” sign.
ATT-
BTW, the FSBO failure rate during the hot market of ’02-’05 ran better than 8 out of 10 locally. Not even a Mendoza line batting average!
I love houses
What do houses have to do with real estate?
Merry Christmas and a Joyful 2007 to all.
Yeah, happy holidays.
Inflation Under Control
On Friday the Department of Commerce said the consumer prices as measured by the core rate of personal consumption expenditures fell to 2.2% year-over-year from a 2.4% rate the previous month.
[…]
That was good news after a surprise jump in the Producer Price Index reported on Tuesday came in at 2% for the month of November alone, a three-decade high.
On another note, the malls are absolutely packed this afternoon.
jb
yeah but were people’s hands full; were registers ringing; and were people paying full price?
Couldn’t tell because the police closed the entrances to the Garden State Mall. I wouldn’t be caught dead in a mall today anyway.
believe Circuit City’s recent performance is indicative of the current state of retail in the U.S.
We recently picked up a Plasma HDTV at Circiut City for less than we could find it on eBay or anywhere else online.
…And yes, we paid cash. It was my MBA graduation/birthday/Christmas/last toy before having a baby present.
ATT-
Why all of the hatred for Realtors? There’s nothing saying that you have to hire a realtor. You can also try to self-medicate and cut your own hair.
Realtors provide a service. Customers choose to pay for that service. In a hot market some agents were cutting their commissions, but many offered this upfront because they needed listings.
I own a business and I like to think that I’m an expert at doing what I do. I don’t know real estate. If I choose to sell my home, I will also turn to an expert.
Those that choose to sell their own homes in my area appear to almost always list with an agent eventually. Personally, I don’t want to handle the advertising, showing, and paperwork. It would take me ten times as long and I would lose money in the long run. What happens if I price the home too high or low?
If you hate agents so much…raise your price 6% to compensate for their fee. You do not need to justify to the listing agent why you want your price.
Concerning the buyer’s agent. The service costs you nothing. The question should be ‘why wouldn’t you use this free service’?
By all means…Don’t use an agent if you need to make a statement. But do so at your own peril. In the long run, this strategy will cost you money 90% of the time.
BTW, I’m not in real estate. But I do cut my own hair.
not true, this fee is simply built into the purchase price;
d2b Says:
Concerning the buyer’s agent. The service costs you nothing. The question should be ‘why wouldn’t you use this free service’?
The cost of everything is built into the price, when you buy a refrigerator, you don’t pay the man who is writing it up………. but you do.
KL
Happy holidays
I used data from the census population estimates page and found something very interesting. The counties in NJ which have the highest net international migration moving in also have the highest domestic migration moving out. This is for 2000 to 2005.
Is this really just as simple as high cost of living driving people away? Or are there social factors at play here?
The data I used can be found at http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/files/CO-EST2005-ALLDATA.csv.
I’ve uploaded the graph to imageshack. Here’s the URL:
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/8282/migrationbycountyjx0.jpg
An interesting sidenote: Ocean county NJ is the only county in the state to have had a large internal migration of people moving in. 43,472 people from 00-05.
Bonus points go out to anyone who spots the term “Superbowl” used in conjunction with “real estate market”.
jb
17: Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices Says:
David Lereah is an amazing spin master. He has given so many different versions of the real estate outlook that he will be be right either way. Now if we see a 10% drop in the NY metro area. He’d be like, I told you.
Richard = Buyers Remorse:
Richard, you bought. That’s okay. Just enjoy your home and don’t hate !!
From Bankrate:
Feeling wealthy can make you poor
As a nation, we have a negative savings rate, which makes us look like slackers when it comes to saving money. But, it’s not quite as bad as it appears on the surface.
Thanks to rising home values and burgeoning portfolios, our overall wealth is increasing. So we do have money in the piggy bank, even though we’re spending more than we’re earning at this time.
What’s troubling is that the wealth effect is leading many consumers to a dangerous precipice. If you haven’t sold your home or stock, but you’re living a more expensive lifestyle based on those unrealized capital gains, you’re on thin ice. What goes up can come down.
The problem is compounded by the fact that as those assets make us feel wealthier, we have a tendency to save less. When times are tight, we save more.
“People’s spending has exceeded their net personal income,” says Kurt Kunze, an economist with the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. “If the stock market goes straight north and housing resumes an upward trend, you can continue to have negative savings. If they’ve realized the capital gain, they’re wealthier. But unrealized capital gains are much less robust than someone who has realized the gain.”
Syncmaster (#62)-
Neat stuff. Gotta believe those Ocean Co numbers are retirees.
Clotpoll, sell my house.
H a p p y H o l i d a y s ! ! !
Zac,
Sorry; I made a promise not to personally profit from this site. If you’d like, post your e-mail & I will refer an agent in your area (no referral fee to me), gratis.
dave705@optonline.net
Richard,
No concern for me. I could give a rats *ss what you do, what you’re worth. Just responding to your posts. You dished it out.
Call me arrogant for being long gold, short the dollar for the past 3 years, that’s fine. Stop criticizing those on this board who are not able to afford in this current environment. These are hard working, educated people. There time will come.
Ego???? Where I sit there are no ego’s, ego’s get chewed up and spit out. I saw it with the geniuses who quit their jobs back in the late 90’s to become day traders, the same occurred with the flippers of today. Their fate will be the same.
That being said, I have repeatedly asked you to give me one compelling reason to buy in today’s market. Your silence regarding this is deafening.
Courtesy of the great Winston;
When the eagles are silent, the parrots begin to jabber.
That’s “their” time.
Sense and Sensibilty leave us (or is it just me)
that’s why people actually buy homes at this time of year and/or puppies.
Yes I did it, I brought it home last night. My son has put up a survey on his my space to get a name for him, I’d like to do the same here
It is a mutt, father is 1/2 pomerainin 1/2 shitzu and mom is a jack russel terrier real cute.
Some of the names we have are
1. Champ
2. Rocky
3. Paco
4. Pal
5. Taco
6. Charlie
7. Jake
8. Poncho
Any other suggestions are also welcome.
KL
PS: The cat has named it Heeessssss
Kl,
Congrats!! Your son will love it. My sister in law has 2 shitzu’s, they are a pisser!!
James Bednar Says:
December 23rd, 2006 at 7:52 am
Bonus points go out to anyone who spots the term “Superbowl” used in conjunction with “real estate market”.
jb
grim: does “super” and “bowl” have to be one word? ;)
IN honor of the “Frasier” Jack Russell, how about “Moose”. My sister calls her JR “Goliath”
RE: Super Bowl,
I can just hear it. If an AFC team wins, the correlation will be that the AFC has won 4 out of 5 during the bull run in RE. Another AFC win means the bull, well rested, continues on!!
JB,
Maybe a good comparison is a chart regarding the # of times we have heard soft landing, in relation to how many times we will hear Super Bowl. By the way, what ever happened to those that were claiming it is different in BC, proximity to NY. PROXIMITY was the late 2005, early 2006 buzz word. Anybody??
Pat, #40,
Yes. Quite compelling. The new infomercials of 2006 will be foreclosure related. Flip this house, gone to the pastures, sheared!!!
Some of the names we have are
1. Champ
2. Rocky
3. Paco
4. Pal
5. Taco
6. Charlie
7. Jake
8. Poncho
Any other suggestions are also welcome.
1. Booya
2. grim
3. David
4. Reechard
5. Chicago
The U.N. Security Council votes unanimously to impose sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program.
http://www.cnn.com
KL:
Elwood
5. Chicago
Sorry CF I have 2 sons they said they might consider chibuffalo! (big nfl fans)
KL
since your from Texas, perhaps “dubya” –
or better yet: “wag”
as in “wag, the dog”
“Sense and Sensibilty leave us (or is it just me)
that’s why people actually buy homes at this time..”
But Rosy says all the smart buyers do it:
http://www.reweekly.com/stories.php?key=60
She’s not the only one, Amigo. I found lots of this kind of stuff:
“(real estate has historically increased 12% before and after a SuperBowl event).”
Chi,
Very suprising. What about a real dog???
RICKEY or maybe just KC, anybody who ups the ante for Gil Menche, certainly deserves consideration.
Jim Says:
December 22nd, 2006 at 4:22 pm
Response with #20–
I am worth over 3 million $$$, but I have sold my house– in Flanders– and now live in an apartment.
In fact in the last 2 years I have sold 3 houses– because the bursting bubble has a LONG way to go.
I can relate to these people, in fact I am one of them , except that I am a blue collar worker, that works 6 to 7 days a week.
Realtors and Flippers have screwed the middle class along with teacher and cop unions.
My kids cannopt afford to live in NJ.
So to the IDIOT that faults this board –Go To Hell, you WILL get burned by the coming recession. I can and will weather it.
Jim
————————–
The damn greed is sickening, but an attitude adjustment is on the way.
Congrats on your hard work, RE sales and common sense. Maybe in 2008 a few younger folks will be able to afford a house without mortgaging their life away…of course we need to see a little more savings and sacrifice first.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAA
Bob
BC Bob Says:
December 23rd, 2006 at 12:15 pm
Chi,
Very suprising. What about a real dog???
RICKEY or maybe just KC, anybody who ups the ante for Gil Menche, certainly deserves consideration.
Bost: KL is naming a dog, not a “hot dog”, with extra relish…. ;)
from today’s WSJ – I’ll send the rest to grim
New Rules for Real Estate
Boom Over, Investors Focus
On Fundamentals, New Areas;
Rental Properties in Kansas City
By RUTH SIMON
December 23, 2006; Page B1
Battle-scarred mom-and-pop investors are still dabbling in real estate. But they are changing the rules of engagement.
During the housing boom, many individual investors went deep into debt to buy investment properties — rental homes and condos — in hopes of selling quickly. The goal: Cash in on soaring prices. They may have had little or no intention of being landlords for the long haul.
Despite the end of the speculative craze, a number of markets in the fragmented real-estate world continue to lure investors willing to adjust their expectations. One key move: As rents take off, buyers increasingly focus on multiunit rental properties instead of the single-family condos and homes that were popular during the housing boom.
Some investors are also shifting money into regions of the country where they expect prices to continue to rise, such as Texas, the Kansas City area and parts of North Carolina.
Developers are also crafting special promotions, such as guaranteed rental income for as long as five years. Deals like these are particularly common in Florida, but they are also appearing in other markets, including Philadelphia and Myrtle Beach, S.C.
Another major shift: Most investors are focusing on the fundamentals that guided the market before the housing boom, especially cash flow — the ability to actually make money from, say, rentals, rather than from quickly selling the property. They are sticking with properties that turn a profit (or at least break even) after factoring in interest payments, taxes and other expenses.
That is a change from the past few years, when speculators were willing to lose money each month in hopes of selling for a big gain.
19-Dec-06
TOLL BRUCE E
Director
500,000 Indirect Sale at $31.62 per share.
$15,810,000
90
http://www.wavsource.com/snds_2006-12-22_920367033073180/tv/looney_tunes/porky_thats_all_folks.wav
Clotpoll and D2b
First of all I want to clarify I do not hate realtors personally – I just hate the stout 6% non-budging commission rates.
That said, Clotpoll – if I remember correctly – you have previously stated that as a realtor you do not care if prices are going up or down for a house/market. You would be more concerned about making a transaction happen, so that you get your commission. Isnt that in direct conflict with serving the best interests of the seller and getting the best price that a house can “possibly” fetch, rather than getting the highest price in next 2-10 weeks and make a transaction at all cost.
You probably can give a ton of examples of some failure FSBOs, who ultimately sought your help, but there would still be a healthy percentage who succeeded themselves. I personally know that my uncle bought a house in fsbo, 20 years ago – so I know it works.
You almost accuse me of coming up with my own rosy numbers. Can you give me an e.g. where a person was trying fsbo route for a house (say around 500K) and was not able to make a sale. Then you (or some other realtor) came in and made a sale at more than 535K or more.
Also what is this “professional marketing” that you keep repeating again and again? What does it entail?
D2B – I am not saying I am en expert of real estate ( I know for sure I am not an expert), but the problem I have with giving 6% of my house sale proceeds to realtor is that generally represents a sizable amount which will take months (if not years) to save. In my particular case, I calculated that the realtor would siphon off 10 months worth of my savings in commission. I want to learn this real estate game (dont care how much ever time it takes) so that I dont have to part with a years of my savings. I know you’d say that realtor can get you more money and compensate – that’d be great – but see paragraph 2 for its pitfalls.
I calculated that the realtor would siphon off 10 months worth of my savings in commission. I want to learn this real estate game (dont care how much ever time it takes) so that I dont have to part with a years of my savings.
I like your attitude!
ATT-
You have difficulty in keeping two thoughts in your head at the same time. Please don’t label your own problem as duplicity on my part. Making the statement that I do not care where the market in general takes prices is in no way conflicting with the fact that I make every effort to obtain the best price and deal possible for my selling clients. At the same time, I also work with buyers, so I put on my other hat and work to obtain them the best price and deal possible, too. In the larger picture, though, the agent is not the one who buys or sells the home…those are agreements that are reached between principals. All I do is help and advise those principals.
See any conflict there? I don’t.
On a Christmas weekend, please excuse me for not wanting to comb thru transaction archives in order to prove points I’ve made. However, if you could trust that some of the basics I’ve put forth are indeed true, I’ll try to address some of your questions:
1. Not every quality agent will try to shove 6% down a seller’s throat. Commissions are negotiable. I very often cut a little slack when the seller is a referral, a former client…or someone who is going to purchase thru me after his sale is complete. I’m not alone in this practice, either.
2. FSBO stats are very closely tracked by RE companies and the MLS, as a significant part of our inventory is derived from failed FSBOs. In red-hot markets, the FSBO failure rate is over 8 out of 10 locally. In a market like the current one, the failure rate is close to 100%…and the number of people who even try to FSBO dwindles to almost nothing (if you don’t believe it, pick up a major NJ paper and check the classifieds). Anecdotally, I can also tell you that I built my career (in 1998, I was $80,000 in debt; I now own a RE company and our office building) doing nothing other than helping failed FSBOs. If attempting to sell your home in the: a) absence of a competitive bidding environment; b) having to negotiate face-to-face and c) not having the benefit of professional marketing sound like a smart move to you, please proceed.
3. The FSBO scenario you mention above doesn’t correspond to reality. Virtually no FSBO underprices his home; the common scenario is that the FSBO uses “comps” sold by Realtors to guesstimate his own home’s value, then pads that number to some extent in anticipation of having to negotiate downward. This usually results in a grossly-overpriced home. Only a complete idiot of a buyer fails to understand that the FSBO has “baked” a commission into his price (remember, he’s working from prices of homes that have agents’ commissions built in) that is not going to be paid to any agent, since he’s not using one. Would you pay someone a 5-6% premium for his home? Of course, you would be stupid to do so.
It’s also well-known that FSBO buyer prospects are trying that route in order to save the commission themselves (surprise!). In reality, most of them are looking to save a helluva a lot MORE than just 5-6%…they’re looking for the “four D’s”: death, drugs, drink or divorce. If they sense the seller’s in a bad spot, you can imagine the quality of offer that gets tabled. Right about now, you might also want to grab a calculator and figure out how both seller and buyer can pocket the pile of money that represents the potential discount or savings. People go the “direct-from-owner” or “do-it-yourself” routes for all kinds of purchases…RE included; their purpose is always to obtain a discount. That’s why WalMart can’t charge Armani prices.
4. Professional marketing is the exercise of determining what buyers need, then filling that need. In RE, it means leveraging the best marketing medium ever devised- the Internet- in order to maximize buyer pool and flow. Just like everything else that gets sold on the Internet, the name of the game is optimization; to optimize in RE marketing means controlling top spots at Realtor.com. Why? Because 80% of ALL buyers in the US spend over 75% of their search time at this site. Realtor.com has “won” the war for eyeballs…like it or not. So, those who control the very expensive optimized spots at that site “win” the marketing game. That’s why grainy, dark photos at public MLS sites and newspaper grid ads don’t sell houses. That’s what used to pass for marketing.
I’d also note that effective RE marketing also incorporates an “inside-out” approach, as well as a commitment to selling surrounding communities as a vehicle for selling houses.
Whew! No mas…
80% of ALL buyers in the US spend over 75% of their search time at this site.
Wow. Do you have an independent source for this?
Syncmaster (#62)-
Neat stuff.
Yup.
So why do you think the counties with the most immigrant inflow are the ones with the most domestic outflow?
From your experiences as a realtor, do you get the sense that people dislike living in communities with many new immigrants?
Sync (#95)-
Those numbers have been verified by external accountants for Move.com (publicly traded on NASDAQ, symbol: MOVE), the parent company of Realtor.com.
They are examined yearly and published as part of the company’s Annual Report and in the prospectus.
No, the numbers are not “cooked”.
Sync (#95)-
The actual “hit” count and comparisons to competing websites are compiled by Media Metrix, Inc.
Sync (#96):
I might not be the best agent to ask on this…I’m in Hunterdon/Somerset. However, I don’t think there’s any correlation to the domestic outflow/immigrant inflow thing. Lots of people close to the city move away, and lots of 2nd generation Americans want to move out of their families’ homes, but still be close to NYC.
I don’t get any sense of people not wanting to live with/near immigrants here. I’m not aware of areas in NJ that see immigrant influx followed by price collapses. Steering and blockbusting- two common practices that also occur in badly-transitioning neighborhoods- also seem to occur rarely in NJ.
I’m from the South, and this sort of thing occurs much more frequently down there.
Good and interesting point – Middlesex county (where I live) certainly has seen a huge influx of new immigrants without a decrease in prices because of it.
I’m reading up on Media Metrix, thanks for that. I’ve always wanted to know how these “audience measurement” methodologies work.
check this out:
MLS# 710628
(direct link on realtor:
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=1&frm=bymlsid&pgnum=1&mls=xmls&js=off&fid=so&vtsort=&ss_aywr=&locallnk=&poe=realtor&ct=&st=&zp=&primaryZp=&nearbyZp=&mnprice=0&mxprice=99999999&mnbed=0&mnbath=0&typ=1&typ=2&typ=4&mnsqft=0&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&lid=710628&sid=07C8D4A1A012C&snumxlid=1073482858&lnksrc=00001
)
Renting for $2500/month.
Tried to sell for $699K originally dropped to $649K
Do the math, Renting is sooo much cheaper :)
Sorry guys, but I strongly have to fall in Clot’s camp on this one. I too work in an industry which is fraught with bad guys, useless salesmen, lazy people, and the fundamentally untalented.
I too have dealt with people such as “att” who have rather causticly questioned [to my face] “what is it that I do?” and “why should I be compensated at the level that I am?”
Ultimately, all I can say for me [I can’t speak for Clot] is that when people engage me, I add value. If you as a consumer do not recognize that fact or feel uncomfortable with the level of the fee, then you can find someone else or simply do it yourself.
The reason I take umbrage with “att’s” attitude is because I have dealt with “att’s” in my practice. At the end of the day, most interact with me as their own form of free entertainment [at the cost of my time]. I learned that they effectively are self-selecting themselves and I generally politely try to excuse myself as quickly as possible.
Those who do not have social grace to recognize my overt signaling lose my respect, and ultimately brand themselves in my eyes as miscreants.
Look, Clot is a salesperson, fully disclosed, and further showing a willingness to open his professional network to you. He has provided insight and a counterbalancing opinion in this forum, which is supported with experience. I fail to see the value in trying to extract a pound of flesh from someone merely because he is the most convenient target. He obviosly cares enough to provide a rather voluminous response.
You don’t value the service, don’t pay for it. Service industries that don’t add value are doomed in the long run, so you can assume one of two things: if RE agents are useless, they will become extinct [along with Clot]; if RE agents continue to exist, that is prima facie evidence that the public [although not necessarily you] do need their assistance.
If Clot’s business is still in place in 2010, then he is obviously one of the value add’ers, or is a trust fund baby.
chicago
chicago,
While I agree with most of your comments on clot, you have to admit that the RE agents along with NAR have created a monopoly.
And as with any industry, monopoly is bad for the consumer.
ATT-
It’s probably good for you to know everything that you can about RE. It’s a very big purchase. I’ve bought two properties using just a lawyer. The seller and I came to an agreement on price. I paid for the inspection and we turned it over to the attorneys.
If I were selling my home and I was indifferent to agents, I would negotiate a better commission structure. I feel that sites like Realtor.com have made selling a house less complex. But, I would rather pay the best agent in town the full 6% for better results. We used the best agent in town to buy our house. We would use he again if we chose to sell.
Interesting point about knowledge…I met a friend on the OC beach in 2001. He had lost over one million dollars in dot.coms. He wanted to get into RE. He bought two investment properties, but his third property he purchased he was his own buyer’s agent. Over the past 5 years, he’s bought and sold 30 properties.
Someone once said…In a gold rush, the person who really makes money is the one selling the picks and shovels.
I failed to mention that my friend became a liscensed agent.
CHI-
To me it seems harder to find someone in financial management that stands out from the crowd. Everyone that I have encountered, first tries to get me into life insurance. Then wants to get me into mutual funds that basically follow the market.
How does one find best financial planner in town?
Chifi (from #102)-
Thanks for the backup. I get jerked for knowledge 2-3 times a year by yahoos who think anything I impart can be turned to their advantage. I get the feeling you may have caught a lot more of this than me; you’ve got the piker’s MO id’d dead cold. Let’s hope ATT eventually figures out that true understanding of how to do this business doesn’t begin to sink in until about transaction #100.
It’s all good. My business is an open book, and selling RE is about common sense, and not much more. However, common sense is an uncommon thing.
And to RentLord (#100)- Monopoly? What monopoly? You can sell your home on your own, you can engage an attorney, you can engage “flat-fee” brokerage…hell, you can skip on your mortgage (aka “a free put”), and let the damn sheriff sell your house.
Monopolies do stink. Nuf said.
Peace to all…and Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Happy Hannukah and Kwanzaa Greetings!
Anybody on here compare the TV junk lately to what was on last year?
I don’t watch TV much, but flipping through tonight, trying to see if the movie with the kid and the BB gun was on, I saw something new to me.
Two shows..”Sell this House,” about staging to sell, and the preview for “Maxed Out,” showcasing people and their debt.
I couldn’t believe it. When did this transition start happening?
Clot, you must be kidding if you think/say that NAR does not have mononpoli-stic practises.
What do you think of this US vs NAR lawsuit:
http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2005/211008.htm ?
Ofcourse it’s easy for a realtor to say that lawsuit has no merit.
O.K., now I’m jumping in before Clot bursts a clot.
Too bad the search feature doesn’t work, RentLord, you’d be able to pick up Clot’s comments on the FTC actions. I believe he’s all for it, and supports future actions.
d2b Says:
How does one find best financial planner in town?
go here….
http://www.fpanet.org/plannersearch/search.cfm
also ask for referrals from people you know…..
bottom line: if someone is not willing to speak to you for at least 30 minutes and not try to sell you something, then they are probably not worth the bother
by the way, check their background to confirm credentials and also any history of reprimand
Ive been following this blog for a while. Poor poor wanna be homeowners. You point to one or two people who’ve sold and made a profit and now rent. This is the extreme minority. Anyone with roots in a town and have a family would never do such a thing. Its a crap shoot at best. Do yourself a favor. Buy when you can afford it. If you can’t, pick a town you can. There are still places to buy if you want to spend in the high $300’s and $400’s with good schools and not in the stix. The regulars that are here are doing a disservice to the neophytes by claiming that if you buy today youre a complete schmuck and deserve to lose your shirt. Balanced indeed.
>>Richard, you bought. That’s okay. Just enjoy your home and don’t hate !!
i own 3 homes, the most recent i bought in NY about 8 months ago. i have 2 rentals and the one i live in in westfield. i bought that one about 2 years ago. i don’t hate, i just hate seeing self aggrandizing know-it-all types who think they’re the next coming of nostradamus. as we say in my parts, your opinion is like a grain of sand on the beach, countless. you may be right, you may be wrong but that’s just one aspect in choosing whether to invest in a home. i do feel that if you can afford it and plan on staying 710 years+ you have little to worry about. history has not proven me wrong ever and recent events have not yet proven otherwise. live your life folks. enjoy your familyl, friends, whatever floats your boat. life is too damn short to be scared into not doing something you’re ready to do if you do it within your means.
RentLord (#108)-
Just like Pat said…the lawsuit is completely merited, and I hope the DOJ prevails. No industry worth its salt needs to stoop to thuggery to defeat competitive challenge.
NAR was doubly stupid in engaging in boycotting practices in this particular instance, because the quality of the competition was- and remains- entirely suspect. Why not beat them by doing a better job? I feel robbed of the opportunity to do so and hope NAR (whose party line many good agents reject) will learn its lesson and butt out.
Jerry, you’re not talking affordable to most NJ residents who make median or less, have or ever want to have children, and want to save for their retirement.
It’s not so much that any disservice is being done to anyone. Do you really think people would base such an important decision on a blog discussion?
There’s a bigger picture for NJ. What happens in those 7-10 years you are talking about, if housing continues to exact such a toll on people who make median wages? What would happen if everyone making $80k or less took your advice, and went out and bought houses at the price range you mention?
Will the changes help or hurt the existing homeowners? Help or hurt big business? Help or hurt the financial stability of the state?
To post #111
“Buy when you can afford it” this comment is completely useless. First of all it assumes that all individuals who have not bought a home have done so out of deficiecny, not choice. Second, please live your life by that comment. Buy every overpriced asset you see, tech company which never made a dollar and burns cash like flowing water, and plans to sell some insane service on the Internet, obviously that is worth a ton of money. I do not think this site is making the point if you buy now u are a sucker and financial freedom is ended. I think the point to be taken away is that home prices are going to drop in the coming years. Your options, bargain hard and protect yourself, rent and wait it out, pay list and be screwed when prices drop. The people on this site do not do a disservice they generally make valid points. As to the balance of the site, you are retarted for thinking you could read this blog and it would be centered. The name of the site is “Thehousingbubbleblog”, inherntly it is going to be skewed. Realize that you are reading peoples comments not to parrot them but to help you formulate your own opinions. I hate my first post to be one which adds little value to a relevant hosuing discussion, however I found this post offensive, and useless.
111]
“Do yourself a favor. Buy when you can afford it.”
you are so full of s**t.
in the Bergen-Passaic metro area, more than 80% of residents can’t afford a 400k loan. Who do you think is left there to buy except bagholders like Reechard?
http://www.nlihc.org/oor/oor2006/data.cfm?getstate=on&getmsa=on&msa=47&state=NJ
Richard owns three homes. probably bought for a quick flip. Market has turned against him. Hence he rants to encourage people to keep the bubble from deflating further.
Clot (#92)
Well put points. I like your responses that are detailed and give a view on the agent side of the picture. Doesnt mean I have to agree to them, but they generally contain some points that are good learning for me.
Couple of points:
1)Regarding the realtor’s association being a monoply – if they control the medium that has 75% of people’s time – they are a virtual monoply. They didnt do it by illegal means, but still they would be a monply (a la microsoft – which controls more than 90% of OS market by defeating competition legally). Unless it is broken into two which competes directly on same lines and turf, I think they’ll continue to be a “legal” monoply.
2) Regarding the FSBO – you say that they baked in a commision of 5-6% into their price and nobody should be stupid to pay it. But what about the scenario where house A & B are totally identical in same area. One is being sold by an agent and another FSBO. Do you think that the one being sold by agent automatically deserves 5-6% more price?? I know an agent is salesperson, who can ‘market and sell’ it to a ‘right’ (stupid) buyer, but in my opinion that buyer is rather ignorant who didnt see that there is another 100% similar house which he could have negotiated some discount since both buyer/seller are saving on commission.
Interestingly in one of the other posts, you mentioned that FSBOs are sitting ducks, and you have free shots at them in the absene of a “bidding” war. Well if you as buyer’s agent feel that you are entitled to those shots, why do you think a buyer who has done his homework and going to present offers without a buyer’s agent is not entitled to free shots on that sitting duck?
3) I agree with you and chicago that a salesperson adds value. It makes sense to hire an agent esp. when you are a buyer looking at mls listed properties – since commission is going to be paid anyway on them. I just think that my (buyer )agent(s) are going to have a tough time. I am planning to study a market I like and just take the lowball route of 15-25% off. I think many agents will fire me or I’ll fire them (in case they refuse to present my lowball). I have plenty of time and this is almost becoming a hobby to me – so no shortage of time for it too (weekends are totally free for me).
Chicago – I did not say that realtors do not add value. But I’m saying that I’ll try to find what the value add is and take a look if an agent is really worth 5-6% w.r.t. to value they are adding. To agree to a commission or advice blindly (as most of the average buyers do here) is sheer stupidity. Trying to question value add is not bad, esp. if you are not wasting anybody’s time (this is a blog – so nobody’s “official” time is beign wasted).
Hi all.
I have seen some of the low cost realtors – esp. ‘Foxtons’ who advertise themselves as 3% full service realtors. Their listings show up on realtor.com.
I remember that most realtors tell that they really provide lousy service. But does anyone has any experience with realtor like foxtons?? Any goods/ bads? Are they really marketing your home aggressively for 3% commission, or they are full of ‘wannabes’ and 3rd rated realtors- who would not get hired by some of the higher service charge realtor company?
I love housing.
With Foxton, if you list with them other realtors will no show their clients ur house cause the buying realtor will only get 1% commision. Why should a realtor settle for 1% if they have been working with a client for months. On top of that they have to split that 1% with their broker.
I would negotiagte a deal with a full service broker for 3-4%. So at least there is enough money for both buyer and sellers broker.
I would not pay more than 4% and listing agreement for no more than 3months.
Realtor are always saying the market is doing so well. If its doing so well then you should be able to sell my house in 3 months then.
Holla Son
“Anyone with roots in a town and have a family would never do such a thing. Its a crap shoot at best”
Jerry #111,
Oh really??? Do you want to speak for my family/friends??
Same town,same family,same friends,same community, same restaurants,same church,etc… Only difference?? 1985-2005 owner,late 2005,chips off the table. By the way, does my/your family pay my/your bills?? Do you think that my family/community really gives a s*it whether I own or rent?? Are they that shallow/feeble minded that they differentiate between an owner/renter??
A crap shoot is not sitting on the fence in an extremely, overbought, unsustainable mania. However, if you stated buying the bhat last week was a crap shoot, I would agree!!
Last year at this time, my friends were laughing at me, since I took the chips off the table. Now??? They ask me what did I see last year that they missed??? “What did you see that I missed,why didn’t you convince me to sell”??
Wannabe homeowners??? How many times do I need to answer this assinine question?? Been there, done that, not really a big deal. When the market is rising, it’s a beautiful thing!! Now, when the world is trapped, it’s ominous, at its best. In my case,as others on this site, simply side stepping the biggest bust of our lifetime.
Do yourself a favor, buy when the market comes back to its underlying fundamentals, if you own, that’s great,get comfortable for 10-12 years. What Jerry says about “poor wannabe homeowners” is hard to comprehend?? Can you please define what you mean by this, is it relative/subjective?? This topic is about over used as soft landing or soon to be over used “super bowl”
You say buy when you can afford??? I ask, “what does affordability have to do with it?? How many of us could afford the nasdaq at 5000?? What’s the point?? To me, this is the most ridiculous statement that I have ever heard?? Since I can afford it, do I buy a bubble/mania??? At this point, the market is saying; free mercedes,free closing costs,2 years of mortgage payments, etc.. Please don’t buy what you can afford in this particular market, buy when the seller capitulates!! Slight differnce of opinion?? That’s what makes markets!!
By the way, I never have told anybody not to buy. As a matter of fact, congratulated big window on his/her score, kahuts to first time buyer, stated that the lawyer did the right thing for him/her in Westchester,even told Richard that he is in a hell of a town. That’s all fine. On the flip side, congrats to those that recognized this market for what is is!! Some saw the imbalances/ineffiencies and said “no mas”. Kudos to you!! Your prudence/patience will be rewarded!!
Facts are stubborn things!!!
“life is too damn short to be scared into not doing something you’re ready to do if you do it within your means.”
Richard,
I now agree with you 100%, “within your means”. My only question, with long term interest rates at/close to historic lows, why 40% subprime in 2006?? Is the standard market, 15/30 year non existent, not within their means??? Does this force the lenders to go where they would really not rather, to the last resort?? After all, the banks can no longer borrow short and lend long, the yield curve has made this impossible. Is the subprime their only hope?? Or is it the yen carry trade?? By the way, have you seen the hedge funds selling the s*it out of the derivatives that back the subprime bonds?? 5% drop in bond value in approx 30 days!! Doesn’t matter what the fed does with the ffr. The market has spoken, spreads widen for the subprime.
Jerry, I have not forgotten about you. I know,”poor wannabes”
Richard,by the way, no schnapps, I wish. Just my body syncronized with London time…..
“Sorry guys, but I strongly have to fall in Clot’s camp on this one. I too work in an industry which is fraught with bad guys, useless salesmen, lazy people, and the fundamentally untalented.”
Chi,
Every industry has it’s venim. As you are well aware, the street is rampant with them. However, I am more than willing to pay somebody for any added value that they bring to the table. I always ask, what am I missing???
It could be worse, you could sit next to 100 individuals that think KC made the right move by giving Gil Menche his payday!! I don’t get it, maybe it’s me???
…moderated once again…didn’t think my comments were so controversial.
BooYa Bob. where are you when I need you??
I hate REs.
I’m sorry, I just do.
I just found the RE transaction for the prop we were interested in and the price it sold for…
It’s probably not worth reiterating the story.
Suffice it to say that there isn’t a more opportunistic gang of unethical and shamelessly wh0re-ish pondsc*m.
I wouldn’t wish bad or evil on anyone – as such, whatever *doesn’t* happen to these dirtbags — please, let it be significant.
Top 10 consumer issues, from the Record:
Gas, housing slump top consumer stories
Housing bubble bursts. It couldn’t last forever, we were warned. And it didn’t. After years of soaring prices and high demand, the real estate market slumped this year.
The result is many houses remain on the market longer and sellers are often forced to lower their asking prices.
Sales of single-family houses, condos and co-ops in New Jersey dropped almost 24 percent from the third quarter of 2005, the National Association of Realtors reported. And while prices haven’t fallen, they’ve stopped the rapid climb we’ve come to expect.
The result is the median price in the region that includes Bergen and Passaic counties rose 4.7 percent over the year to $558,600, compared with double-digit increases in the past.
Prices in the Newark area, which includes Morris County, were up 1.9 percent to $455,400.
Happy holidays to everyone.
Thanks to Grim, I’ll remember 2006 as the year my wife was convinced of a housing bubble.
• Iran says it will change relationship with U.N. nuclear watchdog group
• Iran’s president says U.N. nations will regret imposing sanctions
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/12/24/un.iran.ap/index.html
ATT-
You live a deprived life. Where’s the “savings” in doing research, going out every weekend, ripping thru agents and tabling offers to the wrong market of sellers (15-25% off market is much more suited to the pre-foreclosure situation)?
“I have nothing else to do” and “I have plenty of time” are the battle cries of the “reinvent the wheel” crowd. However, ATT, have you ever determined the economic value of an hour of your time? Teching yourself RE and going it alone- in order to make one deal- presupposes your time is worth nothing.
As far as your last post, you inadvertently helped illustrate my point on FSBO’s; no, I don’t believe that an agent-rep’d home has an inherent right to sell for 5-6% more than a similar home offered FSBO. However, the common FSBO gambit of pricing to the level of agent-rep’d homes makes them susceptible to buyers who will strip that 5-6% out of any offer they’d make. A smart buyer who has some RE knowledge would be well-advised to go hard after FSBOs. That’s where the deals are! And, I never said that buyers without agents have no right to take “shots” at FSBOs.
On to Foxtons: whenever these guys come up in a RE discussion, the word “service” gets tossed around a lot. They are “full service”…other companies accuse them of giving “bad service”…some prospects want to know whether they give “limited service”. When did RE become a service industry? Could anyone please define for me just WHAT good service IS in RE? Returning phone calls? Driving you around in a nice, clean car? A sunny disposition? Since when did we become Nordstrom’s?
Part of the public disgust with agents is that most of us can only justify our surgeon-like fees by stating “we give good service”. And that’s supposed to make a homeowner feel good about handing over $60,000 on the sale of a 1M home? Jesus. If “service” is all it’s about…damn, I’d go to Foxtons, too. When RE agency becomes a commoditized service- and everyone can deliver the same level of service- price is the only differentiator. Why pay more?
Fortunately, RE is NOT a service industry. Done properly, it is a SKILL profession. Not to be a broken record, but marketing, negotiation, networking, transaction management and financial management are professional skills that add value to the transaction. Of course, our industry spends zero time and money reinforcing this message to the public. NAR has decided that we are better portrayed as smiling, community-involved, “ethical” droids. Very creepy. Do you see doctors, lawyers and accountants trying to cultivate this image? Hell no…they’re all about skill and results! And, to the extent that we ignore our real purpose, Foxtons and other skill-limited outfits are able to fill the niche created by our own ignorance and neglect.
However, those who live by the “service” sword die by it. Foxtons’ “full service” is also a curtain, behind which lie either flameouts from traditional RE or agents so green, the ink on their licenses isn’t dry. They are also paid on a salary-and-draw basis, so forget about highly-incentivized pros here. They drive cute little Coopers and say all the right things, but when there’s negotiation to be done…or a home inspection problem…poof! They’re nowhere to be found. In fact, whenever they do a transaction, the first thing Foxtons does is send a letter to the other party’s broker, explaining that they do not get involved in any of the normal activities of the contract-to-closing process. They further ask the other broker to inform them of the closing date, so they can have the closing service mail them their check!
I have no problem whatsoever with this type of brokerage. Their business model- in its previous incarnation as YHD- blew thru two 20M tranches of venture capital (much of it from Hovnaninan) and did a crash-and-burn, only to have Foxtons swoop in and implement an even more idiotic model that has yet to achieve a result any better than YHD’s. In my part of the world, their market penetration has never risen above 2%: a sure sign that the public is onto their shell game as well.
One cent paid to an agency that doesn’t add value to the RE transaction is overpayment. One is better off trying to sell FSBO than paying these guys for their illusion of “service”.
It’s Pal
Thanks for all the input, looks like the puppy’s name is Pal, and he is just that, a great little Pal.
HO HO HO
KL
“no mas”
Bost: sorry, but on these boards the correct spelling is NO MAAS
Clot:
Quad-shot of espresso this morning?
Chifi-
Shot out of a cannon, baby!
From the Reading Eagle:
Should real estate investing be making you nervous?
In the late 1990s, on an almost weekly basis, I warned listeners of my radio show against buying technology stocks. In fact, in our financial-planning practice, we never bought Internet, dot-com or telecom stocks. Although we took a lot of flack in 1998 and 1999 for this stand some clients complained that their portfolios were up only 40 percent while everyone else, they claimed, was up 400 percent we were proven right when the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s.
Today, I’m issuing similar warnings regarding real estate investing, as new data indicate that something is amiss in the residential real estate market.
Over the first five years of this century, real estate prices rose dramatically, and speculators people who, with no prior experience in the field, were seeking quick profits flooded the market. The situation is eerily reminiscent of the 1990s tech-stock craze and, in fact, many of the same people are involved.
Yet we see many indications that the era of big gains in real estate are over. Although we’re not expecting an outright collapse in prices as we did in tech stocks, it is foolish to expect that real estate prices will continue to perform in the next five years as they did in the past five years, and the decline in many markets is likely to continue.
the above article concludes with:
“Indeed, there are many warning signs that the bull market in real estate prices has come to an end. But we don’t expect a collapse in prices similar to those we saw in tech stocks. That means you’ll be fine, provided you aren’t expecting quick profits and provided you own your home for lifestyle reasons and not speculative ones.”
Richard Says:
December 23rd, 2006 at 10:09 pm
>>Richard, you bought. That’s okay. Just enjoy your home and don’t hate !!
“i own 3 homes, the most recent i bought in NY about 8 months ago. i have 2 rentals and the one i live in in westfield. i bought that one about 2 years ago. ”
Uh, haven’t you been presenting yourself for the past year as an eager and nervous homebuyer? Either you were lying then or you are lying now. Either way you are a liar.
“history has not proven me wrong ever and recent events have not yet proven otherwise.”
How much “history” have you actually lived through?
What a stupid arrogant putz.
Clotpoll #132:
When RE agency becomes a commoditized service- and everyone can deliver the same level of service- price is the only differentiator. Why pay more?
Fortunately, RE is NOT a service industry. Done properly, it is a SKILL profession.
I feel like you’re drawing a false distinction here. I work in the IT services industry, and no one claims that what we do doesn’t involve skill. But it’s still a service industry. It’s a service industry because, in the end, we help customers use their information assets more efficiently and wisely. Some of us do the job better than others, and that’s where skill comes in. I suspect that’s what the difference may be between a Foxton’s and you. But the difference is varying levels of skill in providing the same service. In the end, you’re both in a service industry.
This is completely unrelated, and I apologize. The vet’s not open until Tuesday.
Any vets troll here?
Our large 8 yr. old, 20-something pound yellow Tom cat just started pulling his hair out this morning. It’s now gone from his back legs (up to tail) and now he’s working on his front legs and tail.
Anything we can do for him on Christmas eve?
Pat–can’t help specifically, but there’s lots of great veterinary info on the web. Try a search that involves cats and fur-pulling, and maybe you’ll come up with some home remedy you could apply that would make him stop. Very scary when pets have health probs over holidays.
Pat,
My wife says it could potentially be boredom, but there is a chance that the bahavior might indicate a neurological issue. If the hair is falling out, and not being pulled, it points to mites or perhaps mange.
jb
Sorry, lost a bit in my translation. Mites or mange will also cause them to pull. Many times they’ll pull instead of itch.
jb
NORAD is going a fantastic job of tracking Santa this evening.
If you have kids, this is a must-do!
http://www.noradsanta.org/index.php
completely off topic but would ever so much appreciate any info:
Where can I buy krugerrands? Can I buy them direct through south african mint?
Are they the least expensive way to buy gold bullion?
I’m not interested in gold certificates, ETFs, gold stocks but specifically in gold bullion (I am not a numismatic so artistry isn’t an issue.) They are to be a gift.
Thanks in advance.
sl
To All HMIC Business Partners,
It is with deep regret that we announce Harbourton Mortgage Investment Corporation will cease operations effective the close of business today, December 20th, 2006.
We are extremely proud to have had the opportunity to serve our Brokers, Investors and Business Partners and wish everyone much success in the future. Provided below are areas of contact:
HMIC
Thanks, after hours of internet research, and three huge hairballs, I’ve got it down to “help!” Since 8 am, he’s licked off all the hair from the back of his legs, rear around the tail, and a lot more.
He’s always been a huge cat, and lately has lost about 4 pounds, some internet results says it could be diabetes, so we’ll have a blood test done on Tuesday. It’s just so sudden. No diet changes recently. He never goes outside, so I’m thinking it’s not mange/mites.
Pat,
My 16 year old tabby made herself completely bald on the lower third of her abdomen and inside her back legs earlier this year, due to the stress of the illness and subsequent death of my other cat.
Has there been any sudden change in your home? Maybe it’s just stress.
Jaywalk
Hong Kong Passes NYC in Attracting IPOs
“Hong Kong surged past New York this year and became the world’s second most popular place — after London — for companies to float new stock listings. Tough new U.S. accounting rules have discouraged many companies from listing in America.
“
We suspected that, Jaywalk…we took in a feral kitten last year, but he adopted her, always takes care of her and lets her maul him. That’s the only change. As we were unwrapping (5:30 am!), we noticed swelling around the glands (rear), so hopefully it’s just plain old blocked glands. Bald cats are odd looking.
From the Wall Street Journal:
Wall St. Bonuses: So Much Money, Too Few Ferraris
Just wanted to say happy holidays to everyone (especially the ones that were overlooked). I so enjoy this site. It is so helpful. Thank you James for your time and effort in creating and running it.
From grim’s article:
Not everyone on Wall Street is getting multimillion-dollar bonuses. The average managing director — who stands at the top of Wall Street’s hierarchical food chain, but far from rock-star status — will be getting $1 million to $3 million, which will likely be stashed in savings as memories of the 2001 bear market remain fresh.
“I’m putting it in the bank because I know next year I could be out of a job,” said one managing director at a leading bank.
For hedge fund traders and managers, markets were rough in the spring and summer, and some did not make gains until stocks rallied this fall.
“It was a terrible year,” said one young hedge fund professional. “I am going to the movies with my bonus. By myself.”
At cocktail parties, comparisons to 1999 abound. That year marked the height of the technology boom and the eve of a painful crash. “It feels a little bit like the top,” said another banker.
from 152]
“I’m putting it[bonus] in the bank because I know next year I could be out of a job,” said one managing director at a leading bank.
njrebear,
Now that is a smart decision.
Clot (#132)
You said:
You live a deprived life. Where’s the “savings” in doing research, going out every weekend, ripping thru agents and tabling offers to the wrong market of sellers (15-25% off market is much more suited to the pre-foreclosure situation)?
1) First of all your comment is in direct contrast with the “Lowballs” section posted on this site regularly. The lowball section clearly shows that houses go for 15-30% discount regularly. Are you saying ALL of them were pre-foreclosures?? Your talk on “this issue (lowballs)
” really sounds like a typical realtor talk – and it is understandable. You dont want to be stuck with a client who makes those lowballs, since you want the transaction to happen in a short or a decent amount ot time. But I suppose making those lowballs work, one has to be patient – the same way as all the people who did not yield to ‘buy now or you’ll be priced out’ rant. Unless you can show me that the lowballs posted on this site are incorrect, I have no reason to beileve that 15-25% on non-preforeclosure houses would not work.
2) I’m OK with my life and dont need your expert comments as a psychiatrist whether I live a deprived life or not. I am here to gain knowledge, think about it and make my own conclusions, rather than conclusions being made by “smart people” that I must follow. Even if I’m wrong – it would be my decision, but I’d rather make my own decision and go wrong, rather than have someone else try to make a “right” decision for me.
The above being said, I think you give a good insight into the RE industry. Your comments about Foxtons make sense. Your comments abot FSBOs also make sense to me. I always thought that the more middlement you cut out, the more money you would save – until you told me that the listing agreement there still would mean that 6% commission goes to the listing co. So I think you are a good resource to this blog.
Have a nice christmas.
Just did a nice drive from nyc to Denver, CO.
Made many pit stops along the way to inquire about the RE markets in different states and towns along I-80. It was very interesting info, data, and stories I have acquired. From one extreme to another…wow!!
I am going to spend a few days in Denver, CO to interview and acquire data. Also, I will be hitting the slopes in Vail as well…
Keep you posted.
SAS
Also, It is amazing how many McDonalds and WalMarts are littered across the country… Yuck!!
But, it was good to see FedEx trucks along the highways. Always a good sign, in my opinion ;)
SAS
Jerry #111
Right on, buddy! This blog is littered with postings that use small data snippets and nuggets to support a predetermined notion that housing is moribund at best and dead at worst. Look at all the data, including the lowball data that shows some houses sell for more than asking price. It’s the BIG picture that matters here.
Stay focused and buy a house that you want to live in, you can afford, and that you are buying for the security home ownership brings. There’s got to be a reason that so many people buy and hold real estate. It’s far superior to renting, I assure you.
Happy holidays all!
“Poor poor wanna be homeowners”
you would be very surprized at how many RE bears own homes. Don’t be so quick with the assumptions, yes?
SAS
“Stay focused and buy a house that you want to live in, you can afford, and that you are buying for the security home ownership brings. There’s got to be a reason that so many people buy and hold real estate. It’s far superior to renting, I assure you.”
Totally Disagree.
Most can’t afford to buy, hence the no money downs that have dominated this NJ RE bubble.
Can anyone new get into the market? No, unless you are making a mighty high salary.
But, most do not make this high salary.
I agree I love my homes (pleural), and I wouldn’t trade them in for all the money in the world. Actually, I take that back I traded in a 5 floor townhouse on the uws a few years ago for some cool jack that would make many dizzy. But, now is not the time to buy. I know we can’t predict the bottom, but I think the data supprots the fundamentals of a downward trend in RE.
If you don’t believe me, review the last RE bust in NY/NJ. As soon as the specualtion was gone, prices dropped like crazy.
Inventory is piling up. Another sign of a downward trend in prices.
Homeownership is a great thing, when you can actually afford a home, and when you know its not going to be work perhaps 25% less than what you bought it at.
Makes more sense to rent until this arbitrage gap closes.
Man, hard for me to type… too much x-mas cheer he he….
I will finish later.
But there is no such thing as Santa Clause, no such thing as “RE always goes up” or “security home ownership brings”.
Hard to have security in homeownership when it takes up all your salary, and no wiggle room.
SAS
“shows some houses sell for more than asking price”
yup, there are always some useful idiots somewhere. These people who bought will be upside down by this time next year, and there x-mas at this time next year will not be alot of fun. Better pull out those Jimmy Stewart “Its a Wonderful Life” movies for these poor saps.
SAS
“There’s got to be a reason that so many people buy and hold real estate”
Yes, its called a false hope. Its a hope of that they will sell make a heavy profit.
SAS
“It’s far superior to renting, I assure you”
I assure you, that it is not always best to buy and renting is not always the devil.
I assure that there is such a thing as an artitrage gap, that currently renters are taking advantage.
ok, back to my x-mas wine with the ski fellas.
SAS
Must have struck a nerve. Gee, SAS, it sounds like you want and hope homeowners take a financial bath, almost like these people deserve to lose on their investment. Pretty sad.
If you’re in it for the long term, RE one good way to secure your future.
Enjoy your x-mas wine.
Happy Holidays!!
Rich
(Got me a great book on rum and a traveling bar kit (old doctor’s medical bag), what more can you ask for? Okay, the wife’s pregnant too!)
“If you’re in it for the long term, RE one good way to secure your future”
Tell that to the people who lost it all in RE back in the 80’s.
Who bought during the bubble with the intent of ever paying off their loans?
“people deserve to lose on their investment.”
if people don’t do their homework and follow the herd, and believe the “RE always goes up & and long term blah blah blah…..”
well, it will bite you in the butt. Yes, I do want to see people lose their shirts in RE, this way people will no longer be naive to believe the propaganda that RE is always a can’t go wrong investment.
Don’t confuse homeownership with purchasing a home. Homeownership is great, but only if you purchase with in a reasonable time window. and now, nor 07 will be the best time to purchase a home.
“Enjoy your x-mas wine”
Thank you.
SAS
Rich,
“Got me a great book on rum and a traveling bar kit”
Cool…
;)
SAS
SAS,
“Got me a great book on rum and a traveling bar kit”
“Cool…”
And “those other guys” go on and on about scotch and whiskey… mmmm, rum! Nothing like a rum cocktail!
Well, maybe one made with bonded Jersey applejack!
Many don’t realize but this state (NJ) is the ONLY one that still makes our heritage, new world hootch.
Way before rum and whiskey it was applejack. Homemade grenadine, lemon juice and bonded applejack = Jack Rose.
Heaven in a cocktail glass.
Did I mention the wife’s pregnant…? I’m glowing like a cherry in a Manhattan!
Rich
“RE one good way to secure your future”
Home owners should surely feel secure knowing-
1]All home owners with mortgages have less than 35% in equity. home ATMs have run out of cash (Less MEW withdrawal)
2]25% of all mortgages are subprime with at least 20% of them about to default in the next couple of years.
3]Real wage growth in NJ is negative.
4]Over the next 15 years (starting from next)baby boomers will be milking their ‘top notch’ investment to pay for their retirement.
5]Affordability is another topic by itself.
6] 100s of thousands of construction workers will loose their jobs in the next 4 months. That number doesn’t include your friendly Realtors.
7] I’m not sure where the whole subprime mortgage derivatives market will end up when the feds steps up their regulation.
One thing for sure, bag holders should wish for a miracle. They can start by hammering a statue of Mr Liereah in their backyard.
AB go back to your bingo game and get off the board with your useless drivel.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/12/25/iran.oil.ap/index.html
Report: Iran oil profits could dry up by 2015
• Iran’s oil export revenues are plummeting, study finds
• National Academy of Sciences: Decline could spell economic chaos
• The country hostile to the U.S. is not investing in production
so we have Mark and Jerry, pretty much the only 2 people not drinking the mind numbing kool-aid on this board aside from me of course. all you readers please visit other blogs that offer alternative viewpoints. you’ll be doing yourself a big disservice if you only listen to the gospel according to a few self-proclaimed pundits here.
bottom line is over the long haul it’s always been smart to buy real estate. if you tried to time the market 3 years ago saying everything is out of whack you’re behind big time. don’t time the markets folks, it rarely works for anyone. if you can comfortably afford it and plan on staying a while, buy. if you can’t afford it, save. if you are still priced out, move somewhere else where you can afford it. but please stop wishing calamity on others so you can fulfill your goals. it’s Christmas for pete’s sake.
bagholders. the only people left holding the bag are those trying to hoard away a depreciating asset class like cash. the game’s rigged folks. inflation is going to devalue your money no matter what you do. RE is a great place to park cash. it’s historically stayed a bit above inflation. when the 5-year trend shows otherwise then let’s talk but until then it’s all speculation.
‘depreciating asset class like cash’
Just wonderful, I suppose those here with ‘cash’ all have it in a mattress? Anyone can get 5% these days.
Richard.
What about when the feds and banks tighten up their lending standards?? The demand for real estate would suddenly dry up and so the prices will fall.
You dont get it. It is not about how real estate has did historically (as you can find in brocheures of all mutual funds ‘past performance is not an indicator of future’. ) It is essentially demand and supply. If the price becomes so high that the demand decreases, while supply increased, the prices will have to fall to spur demand. Any other theory is either moot or is just a corollary to the fundamental ‘demand and supply’ theory.
Richard,
If I recall correctly, you have changed your tune compared to when you first starting posting here.
What was the impetus? The fact that you bought a house after you first started posting?
“…please visit other blogs that offer alternative viewpoints…”
What other blogs are you recommending?
Rich
Rich in NNJ: Congrats! An August baby?
Did anybody notice the 3 FULL pages of foreclosures in the Star Ledger yesterday?
Loans reseting, people, struggling and real estate crashing??
Time will tell, Richard …where are those other blogs you are talking about…I think you are in for a rude awakening.
JIM
Thanks Pat!
July 25 is the “target” date. We’ll see!
Rich
“the game’s rigged folks. ”
So you are in on the ‘game’? :)
IF 2007 is rigged (bail out for ARMers), then as of yet 2008 and 2009 will have to be rigged as well. The more you rig, the harder is the fall.
“the game’s rigged folks. ”
Are you saying that home buyers should rely on your assesment that ‘the game’s rigged” in order to buy? That’s a pretty sharp argument indeed.
ATT-
In reference to the “Lowball” section here, I have no argument with the fact that there are homes on the market that can be lowballed successfully. At this time, however, the amount of MLS-listed homes susceptible to a successful lowball remains a fraction of the entire inventory. Remember, many of the owners who priced in the stratosphere in ’06 (those most vulnerable to the lowball) have withdrawn from the market. It remains to be seen how many come back, so the pre-foreclosure market may make more sense for you in terms of offering a higher percentage of do-able deals vs. the entire inventory available within the category.
With pre-foreclosures and foreclosures, you’re also playing to an audience of sellers who’s much more understanding of the quality of offers they’ll be getting.
Gotta get into your head & bust chops, man. Nothing personal…and Happy New Year!
bottom line is over the long haul it’s always been smart to buy real estate
Reechard: You have conveniently left out a whole host of costs in your assessment. I would argue that owning real estate is an excellent vehicle of “forced savings” that is now being eroded with the advent of interest-only financing, negative amortization loans, and the ability to easily cash-out built up home equity.
You present consistently specious arguments.
You would do well to refer to Clot to build the bull-case.
Where are all the for sale signs? Been doing a bit of residential snooping in some Bergen County Neighborhoods. Not many for sale signs posted. What has happened and is there hope for my husband and I to get a nice home at a decent price in the next coming couple of months?
This is great!