Pay no attention to the rising foreclosure rate

From NJBIZ:

Home Mortgage Foreclosures Soar

Rising foreclosure rates in New Jersey are likely to remain on the upswing in 2007, but experts say the odds are slim that the increases will signal a crisis for the state’s housing market or its economy.

For the first 11 months of 2006, home mortgage foreclosures in the state were 25,472, up 78 percent from 14,311 for all of 2005, according to Foreclosures.com, a real estate advisory firm in Sacramento, Calif.

Big increases occurred throughout the state. In affluent Bergen County, foreclosures jumped more than tenfold, from 104 in 2005 to 1,367 last year. In Monmouth County, home to many shore communities, foreclosures rose from 883 in 2005 to 1,533 last year.

An increase in foreclosure rates tends to be symptomatic of an economic downturn, when homeowners lose jobs and therefore lack the income to pay their mortgages, says Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, a real estate appraisal firm in East Brunswick.

But this doesn’t apply to current circumstances, says Joel Naroff, chief economist at Cherry Hill-based Commerce Bank. “It’s not as if the New Jersey economy is falling apart, and unemployment rates are rising, and people are losing their jobs,” says Naroff. “That’s just not happening.”

Instead, rising interest rates that have increased housing payments for adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) holders, together with a weak housing market, have driven up foreclosure activity, Otteau says. Foreclosures are less common in healthy market conditions, he says, because homeowners are able to sell their homes quickly if they fall behind in their mortgage payments.

“But when you have people with an affordability issue on top of the fact that houses are taking a very long time to sell, that’s when the foreclosure market spikes,” he says.

With the housing slowdown, subprime borrowers increasingly feel the pinch. “Because of the imaginative mortgages kicking in, we’re now seeing foreclosures where we hadn’t ever seen them before,” says Naroff. “A lot of these mortgages are resetting, and as they reset, people are finding it difficult to either pay the higher reset levels or remortgage, especially in light of a housing market that’s softening.”

According to MBA’s National Delinquency Survey for the third quarter of 2006, 4.68 percent of subprime ARMs in New Jersey were in foreclosure, compared with 0.75 percent for prime ARMs.

Subprime foreclosures are clearly on the increase, according to the Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, N.C. It reported last month that subprime loans that originated last year in New Jersey have a projected lifetime foreclosure rate of 19.6 percent, compared with a projected 7.6 percent rate for such loans made between 1998 and 2001.

Mortgage lenders helped to proliferate the use of creative mortgages by relaxing their loan approval standards during the housing boom, Otteau says. Many lenders assumed that housing appreciation would continue, so they could recover the money that was borrowed if a loan went into default. “Mortgage lenders became very aggressive in trying to get their share of the market or increase their share of the market,” he says.

Most experts do not currently see the rise in delinquencies and foreclosures as cause for alarm. “The foreclosure inventory rate has increased somewhat from the very lowest point, but relative to where we’ve been in recent history, it’s still quite low,” says Mike Fratantoni, senior economist at the MBA in Washington, D.C. For the third quarter of 2006, less than 1 percent of the 1.2 million loans the organization tracks in New Jersey were in the foreclosure process, compared with 1.86 percent of loans during the recession in 2001.

“That the number of foreclosures is increasing was to be expected, because we were at an incredible low point here in terms of the amount of foreclosure activity in the market, so it could only go up,” says Otteau. The current numbers, he adds, are less than those in previous periods of high foreclosure rates, including the late 1980s and early 1990s, and the late 1970s and early 1980s.

While New Jersey may have more foreclosures and a faster rate of increase than other states, “that comes as no surprise,” says Otteau. “We have more households, we have a more active housing market, and we have a more expensive housing market than other states.”

However, says Otteau, “If we do get a recession in ’07, which is not likely but possible, that would be the perfect storm that would cause the foreclosure rate to increase more rapidly, and at that point it could become a serious factor for the housing market.”

This entry was posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

125 Responses to Pay no attention to the rising foreclosure rate

  1. James Bednar says:

    Construction Spending, ISM Index, and the FOMC Minutes are due out tomorrow.

    jb

  2. BC Bob says:

    “It’s not as if the New Jersey economy is falling apart,”

    Bars, restaurants and Trenton are continuing to hire.

  3. njrebear says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/year-conundrum/story.aspx?guid=%7B66291C49%2D6FAC%2D4D14%2D8568%2DD8C7DAAF6DD5%7D

    The year of the conundrum
    Commentary: There is little to support optimistic forecasts for 2007

    1]The money supply is actually growing faster today than it was when rates were at their lowest

    2]They are actually counting on housing to give the economy a lift this year.

    3]last year, companies put most of their surplus cash into dividends and stock buybacks. ..last year was the first year ever that the blue chip firms spent more money on buying back their stock than on capital spending.

    4]But the lack of capital spending, combined with no killer app in technology, has cut into productivity gains. …economic growth must moderate further in order to reduce inflation.

    5]And if the economy does grow fast enough to justify this rosy scenario, chances are it will push up inflation as well, leading to rising — not falling — interest rates.

  4. chicagofinance says:

    as I have been saying all along….the optimists are making forecasts that are “economy neutral”. If we have a recession, you can flush everything……even Booya’s condo-shack demands will be fulfilled

  5. fyi This is a long article !!!

    Falling prices trap new homebuyers
    Neighbors in a new Garden Grove tract say a developer’s plan to slash prices by about $140,000 has left them owing more for their homes than they’re now worth.
    By JEFF COLLINS
    The Orange County Register
    http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/abox/article_1381194.php

    GARDEN GROVE – David Dunn felt as if Christmas were stolen from him when prices for neighboring homes in his new subdivision fell by about $140,000.

    Now, he says, his home is worth less than he owes, making it next to impossible to refinance before his $3,000-a-month payment doubles. Eleven neighbors who bought before the price cuts are in the same boat.

    “They put us in a bad financial situation by lowering the price,” said Dunn, 33. “Some of (the buyers) did 100 percent financing, so they’re completely over their head right now.”

    Brandywine Homes, developer of the 42-home Heritage subdivision in Garden Grove, is one of many homebuilders that’s had to cut prices lately.

    Dave Barisic, Brandywine’s vice president of sales and marketing, said in an e-mail that his firm recently held what he thought was a successful meeting with homeowners.

    “As such, I don’t think you’ll be contacted again and there probably isn’t much of a story there,” he wrote.

    But homeowners say the matter remains unresolved, and an attorney says he’s still waiting for a response to a letter he sent the developer on behalf of buyers who hired him.

    Meanwhile, ads offering big discounts and concessions on new homes have been rolling off the press for weeks as builders race to clear inventory before the end of the year:

    •”It’s a homebuyer’s market, and now is the time to take advantage of it,” said a Richmond American Homes ad several weeks ago that offered buyers free stainless-steel appliances, free washers and dryers, plus 3 percent toward paying closing costs.

    •”Ask about our Serious Incentives for Serious Buyers,” Taylor Woodrow Homes said in another ad.

    •The only thing that’s not negotiable, added a Standard Pacific Homes ad, is the quality of the houses – implying that the price is negotiable. Year-end incentives include below-market loan rates, no-loan payments for six months and free upgrades.

    At Tustin’s Columbus Grove, sales reps for William Lyon Homes, Lennar and KB Home touted plans that included help paying off closing costs and loans, flooring upgrades worth up to $20,000 or – in the case of one KB Home development – up to $70,000 off the purchase price.

    Wally Welter, an Irvine home shopper, said salesmen for several builders at Ladera Ranch offered concessions worth $100,000 or more.

    “I’ve had salespeople say, ‘Make an offer,’ which you never hear the builder say,” said Welter, 60. “Now, they’re willing to listen.”

    The reason builders now are listening is a housing slump that’s caused new home orders to tumble and homebuilder profits to fall.

    Standard Pacific Corp., for example, reported that its net income fell by $66 million in the third quarter, a 68 percent drop; Toll Brothers reported a 44 percent decline in quarterly profits; William Lyon Homes reported that its net income fell 72 percent from the third quarter of 2005.

    Most homebuilders are reporting that 40 percent or more of their buyers are canceling this year. Often, cancellations result in the builder getting stuck with an empty home that’s already under construction.

    The closer the home gets to being finished, said KB Home’s Irvine-based regional manager, Jay Moss, “the more anxious the homebuilder gets to make the deal.”

    Concessions, said housing consultant John Burns, are “the talk of the industry.”

    “On a completed home, it can be substantial.”

    But residents of Garden Grove’s Heritage subdivision maintain that there’s more to their story than mere concessions. They maintain that their builder, Brandywine Homes of Irvine, has cut prices well below market values, regardless of how that affects the earlier buyers.

    At the very least, their story shows that the pain caused by falling prices isn’t borne by the developers alone.

    The homeowners said that the price cuts began in November, just months after the first dozen buyers closed escrow, paying from $770,000 to $888,500 for their homes. The average price was $825,000, property records show.

    After the builder dropped prices by more than $100,000, all but five of the homes sold in a matter of weeks.

    “Usually builders keep their prices up. They try to keep their buyers happy,” said Christie Vu, 27, who paid almost $870,000 for the home she and her husband, Philip Luu, share with their two young sons. “In this case, it’s just the opposite.”

    The builder’s representatives said during a recent meeting that they are being forced to price the homes to sell and maintain they are getting “zero profit” from the project, homeowners said.

    Keyvan Samini, an attorney for some of the buyers, said the purchasers relied on the lender and its appraiser to confirm the homes’ $800,000-plus price tags.

    But appraisers ended up using homes about three miles away as a guide for the first appraisal, and subsequent loan appraisals were based on the first one, Samini said.

    The appraisals “were way too high,” Samini said. “I believe that the builder knew they were too high, or should have known. And it’s not the fault of the buyers. They rely on the expertise of those appraisers.”

    Barisic, Brandywine’s sales VP, said he doesn’t know anything about the comparable homes used in the appraisals.

    “The appraisers are not hired by Brandywine Homes,” Barisic said. “They’re hired by the lenders, which the homebuyers chose themselves.”

    One of Samini’s clients said he’s facing the possibility of foreclosure because of the price cuts.

    Dunn said he’s in a financial bind because he’s using an exotic mortgage called an Option ARM, an adjustable-rate loan in which the homeowner can pick his monthly payment from a variety of options.

    Eventually, he’ll be responsible for making full payments of $6,000 a month, he said, adding, “I don’t know how we’ll be able to pay that.”

    “It’s not just the financial aspect. It’s the emotional,” Dunn said. “We can’t eat, can’t sleep. I can’t concentrate on work. This is all I think about.”

  6. syncmaster says:

    Bars, restaurants and Trenton are continuing to hire.

    BC Bob #6,

    It’s also a good time to be in IT. My resume is out there and I’m getting lots of calls. Not high-paying in the sense of i-banking but definitely good middle-class salaries.

  7. RentinginNJ says:

    While New Jersey may have more foreclosures and a faster rate of increase than other states, “that comes as no surprise,” says Otteau. “We have more households, we have a more active housing market

    1) You can’t use “we have more households” as an excuse for a “faster rate of increase”. If it’s a rate, its normalized for volume. In fact, a higher number of households would tend to increase the statistical significance of the data.

    2) Why would an “active housing market” be an excuse? In an active market, you should be able to sell your way out of trouble.

  8. Rich In NNJ says:

    Broadband,

    If the article is so long (and not about Jersey RE) than why not just post the pertinent parts and supply the link?

    Rich

  9. RentinginNJ says:

    end end end

  10. RentinginNJ says:

    end end

  11. Rich In NNJ says:

    Wasn’t me this time!

    Hope that fixed it.

    Rich

  12. Rich In NNJ says:

    Hate when that happens…

  13. Rich In NNJ says:

    Hate when that happens…

  14. njrebear says:

    #6 syncmaster,
    Are those IT jobs in NJ?

  15. RentinginNJ says:

    Sorry… I hope that ended the italics..

    It’s also a good time to be in IT. My resume is out there and I’m getting lots of calls. Not high-paying in the sense of i-banking but definitely good middle-class salaries.

    The job market is pretty tight in NJ right now. While NJ isn’t creating private sector jobs (outside of retail and restaurants), we are seeing significant out-migration (leaving NJ) of the middle class. At the same time, not many people are in a rush to move to NJ for a normal middle class job.

  16. njrebear says:

    Rich,
    I graphed your Bergen county data for December.

    http://www.geocities.com/njrebear

    I plan to add May – Dec data to the graph this weekend. Thanks!

  17. Rich In NNJ says:

    Grim,

    I don’t know what pet-peeve bothers me more, posts without content or long ‘cut and paste’ articles… in any case.

    For the curious in Bergen County, here is the number of monthly, active residential SFH listings; this does NOT include Condos/Co-ops & Townhouses.

    Date 2007 2006 2005 2004
    01/01 3,140 3,082 2,271 2,218

    02/01 3,343 2,293 2,258

    03/01 3,498 2,331 2,296

    04/01 3,807 2,391 2,414

    05/01 4,165 2,609 2,625

    06/01 4,586 2,938 2,931

    07/01 4,703 3,048 3,102

    08/01 4,746 3,198 3,139

    09/01 4,603 3,223 3,113

    10/01 4,570 3,454 3,141

    11/01 4,352 3,609 3,003

    12/01 3,848 3,534 2,702

    Historical Actives are not available from NJMLS prior to 1/1/2004

    FYI:
    545 Expired listings and 311 Withdrawn listings between 12/1 – 12/31 for a total of 856 (189 on 1/1/07!).
    In 2005 there were a total of 656 for the same period (15 on 1/1/06).
    But there is NO way to tell if all of these listings were Active listings.

    It will be interesting to see what happens with Spring inventory numbers.
    Rich

  18. Rich In NNJ says:

    NJREBear,

    Cool!
    I’ll update the December numbers on Friday and send them to you as agents are sometimes slow to enter sales. As of today the median for SFH has actually dropped $10k.

    Rich

  19. syncmaster says:

    njrebear,

    The employers I’ve spoken to so far are about 50:50 NJ and Manhattan.

  20. SG says:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/manhattan_apartments.html?.v=2

    Average Price of Manhattan Apartment Up
    Wednesday January 3, 12:23 am ET
    By Adam Goldman, Associated Press Writer
    Average Price of a Manhattan Apartment Is Up to More Than $1.1 Million

  21. New In Town says:

    “good time to be in IT”

    I’m not so sure. Why use domestic IT resources when offshore it is so much cheaper?
    Sure, I can think of lots of reasons, but that is beside the point.

  22. njrebear says:

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

    MBA: Mortgage Applications

    The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 575.6, an increase of 3.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 555.8 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 27.4 percent compared with the previous week and was up 6.9 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.22 from 6.12 percent …

    The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 5.84 percent from 5.87 …

    The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 48.1 percent of total applications from 48.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 20.4 from 23.1 percent of total applications from the previous week. The ARM share is at its lowest level since July 2003.

    The Refinance Index increased by 2.2 percent to 1640.4 from 1604.6 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased by 4.3 percent to 406.9 from 390.2 one week earlier.

    The four week moving average is down 1.1 percent to 424.4 from 429.3 for the Purchase Index

  23. Al says:

    RentinginNJ Says:
    January 2nd, 2007 at 10:44 pm

    Sorry… I hope that ended the italics..

    It’s also a good time to be in IT. My resume is out there and I’m getting lots of calls. Not high-paying in the sense of i-banking but definitely good middle-class salaries.

    The job market is pretty tight in NJ right now. While NJ isn’t creating private sector jobs (outside of retail and restaurants), we are seeing significant out-migration (leaving NJ) of the middle class. At the same time, not many people are in a rush to move to NJ for a normal middle class job.

    Now my comment based on me being one of thouse people moving to NJ to get better that average middle class job (or so i thought).

    The only problem is that after you move to NJ and start your normal middle class job, you discover that your normal middle class salary goes a lot shorter ways than anywhere in the country… NJ is expensive in everything to the degree, people, who live in the west/midwest could not even imagine (at least i did not realize that milk in the grocery store in NJ is double the price over in Washington state – I have just returned from visiting my family there for cristmas, and so goes for most of the perishable foods, services, taxes, traffic).

    And you life quality is about the same as people’s who make 1/2 of your salary in Midwest/western states.

    SO after those people who moved to NJ (me) live here for a year or two they are paking their stuff and moving out in a hurry.

    SO I get it few times NJ is great state to live in.. Well for people who grew up here, have all the realtives here and already have a house paid off may be… For people working on the wall-street may be… But for new person moving to NJ for normal job – well NJ got nothing…. (Sorry but 7$/person to go to the beach with family of 4…… kind of getting expensive and the same goes for NY trips….)

  24. twice shy says:

    MLS #2357531

    This just came on the market in Westfield. What’s interesting is that it’s a “fix-up or tear down as is” sale offered by one of the bigger local builders.

    Why do you suppose he’s dumping it with all bids in by Jan. 15 rather than building on spec?

  25. James Bednar says:

    I’ve noticed a bit of a tumble in land prices lately. A small handful of which had, what I thought, were very reasonable asking prices (especially if you have family in the trades, or can swing a hammer yourself).

    I haven’t kept tabs on land prices and available lots for at least the past 6 months, I only started up again in the past week. Given pricing on some of these lots, builders can still build spec and easily profit.

    jb

  26. SG says:

    JB: The trouble is not availability of reasonably priced land, but getting local township approval to build houses on top of it.

    I have yet to see a township that allows housing medium to large development for normal families. Also, By Home approval process easily adds 10% to the cost of the house.

    I once saw 24 acre lot in central NJ for just $500K, but was not available for development. Onle 1 house allowed.

  27. James Bednar says:

    I’m talking single family, not multi or clustered, etc.

    jb

  28. Rich In NNJ says:

    40,000 jobs lost in December, ADP reports

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. private-sector employment fell by 40,000 in December, the first decline in nearly four years, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday.

    “These findings suggest an abrupt slowing of employment,” following relatively strong job growth averaging 121,1000 over the past three years,” said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomics Advisers, the economic firm that computes the ADP index from anonymous payroll data provided by Automatic Data Processing Inc.

    More at link above, Rich

  29. BC Bob says:

    Seneca,

    You were right on regarding copper. LME(London) copper stocks are at 190,000 tonnes. In July of 2005, they were at 25,000 tonnes. Somebody’s not buying.

  30. njrebear says:

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/02/real_estate/Manhattan_housing_market_drops/index.htm?postversion=2007010300

    Manhattan real estate cools off
    Fourth-quarter prices inch down in New York, but fundamentals are still strong.

    “Right now, prices are weakening across the board,” says Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel, the real estate appraisal firm that compiles the statistics for Elliman. “Each segment showed negative numbers from the previous quarter.”

  31. RentinginNJ says:

    Star-Ledger
    Officials seek bargaining power on state health benefits
    http://www.njo.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-5/1167802968121830.xml&coll=1

    Local officials, school boards and county colleges are urging Gov. Jon Corzine to help them gain the power to negotiate health benefits with their 215,000 active and retired employees, an action they say would save $34 million the first year.

    Currently, 55 percent of municipal and county governments, 18 of the 19 county colleges and a large number of school districts that participate in the State Health Benefits Plan must accept the cost of health benefits negotiated between the state government and public employee unions.

    Two bills that would allow local governments to negotiate cost-cutting changes in the health benefits they provide their employees was part of a package of legislation recommended by special committees to reduce property taxes. But the bills stalled last month when Cor zine declared that health and pension changes should be negotiated with the unions at the state level.

    State and local health benefits costs totaled $3.6 billion in 2006.

    A total of 804,000 active and retired state and local public employees, almost 10 percent of New Jersey’s population, are covered by the State Health Benefits Plan, making it the largest single purchaser of health care in the state, according to East Brunswick fi nance director L. Mason Neely, a finance adviser to the League of Municipalities.

    Over the past five years the cost of health benefits under the plan has risen 150 percent, Neely said. He said towns and counties would save $34 million the first year if allowed to negotiate health benefits locally.


    “It is highly unlikely the Legislature will take on the unions without the support of the governor,” said William G. Dressel, League of Municipalities director.

  32. James Bednar says:

    From Marketwatch:

    U.S. November construction spending falls 0.2%

    U.S. construction spending fell by 0.2% in November, led by a drop in outlays on home construction projects, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Spending for private residential construction projects decreased 1.6% in November, following a drop of 1.7% in October. The overall 0.2% drop was smaller than the 0.5% drop that economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected. Outlays in October were revised to a 0.3% decrease from a drop of 1.0% earlier.

  33. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. Dec. ISM 51.4% vs. 49.5% expected

    The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded again in December following a rare contraction in November, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM manufacturing sentiment index rose to 51.4% from 49.5% in November. Readings over 50% indicate the sector is growing. Economists were expecting the index to remain below 50% at 49.5%. The ISM index is considered to be one of the best real-time economic indicators. The production index rose to 51.8%, the new orders index rose to 52.1%, and the prices paid index fell to 47.5%.

  34. SG says:

    Can someone post SP for MLS: 2308259

    This was slightly older listing, so not sure MLS still keeps the information.

    Thanks in advance.

  35. James Bednar says:

    Still under contract SG, not closed yet.

    jb

  36. Lindsey says:

    However, says Otteau, “If we do get a recession in ’07…

    First Otteau says he doesn’t think recession is likely, but then he lets himself off the hook for everything that he has said by saying it’s a possibility.

    I hate that construction.

    Next to nobody (who earns a living in economic reporting) makes the recession call because:

    1) There is no penalty for being wrong about it.

    2) People just can’t bring themselves to deliver bad news

    3) It allows them to fool themselves

    Auto manufacturing is in decline, Housing is headed down and there don’t seem to be any brakes, and an extraordinary amount of work previously done domestically is now done overseas. The only thing that is going to prevent a recession is a continuation of insane borrowing, and while it can happen, the ruts in that road are going to lead to broken axles even further down the line.

    I’ll stick by my recession call, and as Chifi noted, Booyaa Bob’s winter condo/shack purchase.

  37. njrebear says:

    Construction Activity Falls in November

    Construction Activity Dips As Housing Falls for Record Eighth Straight Month

    …The weakness was led by a 1.6 percent plunge in home construction, which followed an even bigger 1.7 percent drop in October. Analysts believe home building will remain weak for several more months as builders struggle to work down a huge backlog of unsold homes.


    The housing decline pushed spending on residential buildings down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $589.3 million in November.

  38. James Bednar says:

    Private Residential Construction down 11.1% year over year in November..

    http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf

  39. RentinginNJ says:

    Next to nobody (who earns a living in economic reporting) makes the recession call because:

    1)There is no penalty for being wrong about it
    2)People just can’t bring themselves to deliver bad news
    3)It allows them to fool themselves

    True. The mainstream economists almost never predict recessions. After all, how many mainstream economists predicted a recession in 2000 or early 2001? Most were calling for a continued expansion or a soft landing?

    Economists don’t want to be wrong, but if they are going to be, it is better to be wrong with the pack. This way you can later claim “no one saw it coming” and protect your credentials as a prognosticator.

  40. Home Seller says:

    James- question for you:

    Will you be posting the ‘December Resi Sales’ soon?

    thanks

  41. James Bednar says:

    Most likely within the next few days.

    jb

  42. njrebear says:

    from # 40

    It looks like non-residential construction is not compensating for residential decline as the bulls had predicted.

  43. chicagofinance says:

    A little late with this……..I’m thinking that 2007 is going to be a lackluster year for real estate. However, then board economy is going to be OK. I think that the problems associated with housing will filter into the rest of the ecomony by the end of the year. I think 2007 will have some price declines. I think 2008 is going to be where we have the recession and the true bloodletting begins.

    2007 is the mild heart attack for real estate and an angioplasty. 2008 will be the time to crack the chest open………

    Using this analogy, I think that makes Bob Toll a drug coated stent……..I guess it makes David Lereah an colostomy bag.

  44. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices for houses/more for Condoshacks says:

    Rich In NNJ Says:
    January 3rd, 2007 at 8:22 am
    40,000 jobs lost in December, ADP reports

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. private-sector employment fell by 40,000 in December, the first decline in nearly four years, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday.

    Nice Pulse of the economy.

    WHO GIVES A DAMN IF WE HAVE RECESSION!

    In 1990 had a recession then economy grew slowly until 1995. Interest rates dropped from 9% to 6% (1993-1994)and the stock market did reasonably well 1991-1994). HOUSING PRICES TANKED OVER THIS PERIOD.

    So if the economy muddles along with unemployment skyrocketing in RE related jobs the economy can still tread water, while house prices continue the decline toward 30% for houses and condoshacks?????

  45. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices for houses/more for Condoshacks says:

    It’s all about affordability and sentiment.
    Comprende!

    10-15% drops last year now working on another 10-15% into early 2008 depths of misery!

    hehehehhehehehhe

  46. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices for houses/more for Condoshacks says:

    Sentiment is negative it ain;t going to change….more misery heading RE pimps way. Misery index hits high in early 2008.

    hehehehehehhehehehehe
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oibk9Zk1_yI

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA (half moaning yell)

    Bob

  47. Seneca says:

    Speaking of construction spending, gypsum board prices fell between the 1999-2004 time period accoding to
    http://www.freedoniagroup.com/pdf/1953smwe.pdf

    This report also predicted, in 9/2005, a rise in prices of about 3.7 percent a year.

  48. Seneca says:

    Anyone catch David Michonski (Coldwell Banker CEO) on The Today Show advising America to buy real estate now to make the most of their finances?

    “…your internal growth on any real estate investment will be 4% a year”

    Where are good places to buy now?

    “The Northeast of the United States where they are not making any more land.”

    http://video.msn.com/v/us/msnbc.htm?g=e29e1777-d82d-41ff-b6c2-b4730cbbd614&f=00&fg=copy

  49. sas says:

    wow, alot of inventory across the country.

    I am starting to think there is a national RE bubble, rather then just isolated to the coasts.

    NJ is going to take a hard…hard hit in 07-08.

    Better rent or move out of NJ.

    SAS

  50. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices for houses/more for Condoshacks says:

    A believe a crash is possible in Fl AZ Nevada Orange Cty CA, Myrtle beach….

    Northeast/Mid-Atlantic 30-35% housing declines Condoshacks???
    hehehehehehehehehehehehehee
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oibk9Zk1_yI

    BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA (sick moaning yell)

    Bob

  51. njrefugee says:

    The only problem is that after you move to NJ and start your normal middle class job, you discover that your normal middle class salary goes a lot shorter ways than anywhere in the country… NJ is expensive in everything to the degree, people, who live in the west/midwest could not even imagine (at least i did not realize that milk in the grocery store in NJ is double the price over in Washington state – I have just returned from visiting my family there for cristmas, and so goes for most of the perishable foods, services, taxes, traffic).

    And you life quality is about the same as people’s who make 1/2 of your salary in Midwest/western states

    This is the main reason why I’m a New Jersey refugee. NJ is the craziest state in the US and really offers little that one can’t have elsewhere for a lot less money. There are two possible directions that NJ will go: an enclave of wealthy displaced Manhantanites or a wasteland where no one with any bit of sense would not live.

    The unfortunate fact is that New Jersey is not a great place to live, hence the exodus. The average person living in NJ is paying twice as much for half of what folks in the rest of the country are getting.

  52. Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices for houses/more for Condoshacks says:

    I have to disagree. Go look around Orange County CA and you will see Insanity at its’ heights.

  53. chicagofinance says:

    Lennar’s CEO said they are pulling out of SoCal

  54. Home Seller says:

    There are buyers out there (at least in my town)

    Noticed that these two properties in my town have just went under attorney review

    2647521
    2350255

    Also, another house in town just went under contract and is off the MLS

  55. James Bednar says:

    For those interested in the North Jersey inventory numbers at the start of this new year.

    GSMLS
    Ber,Ess,Hud,Mor,Pas,Som,Sus,Uni,War
    January 3rd, 2006 – 11,010
    January 3rd, 2007 – 15,065 (~37% Higher)

    NJMLS
    Ber,Ess,Hud,Pas
    January 3rd, 2006 – 5,370
    January 3rd, 2007 – 7,095 (~32% Higher)

    MLSGuide
    Hud
    January 3rd, 2006 – 1,735
    January 3rd, 2007 – 2,469 (~42% Higher)

  56. Spelunker says:

    Seeing one of the bigger drops in a few weeks for HOV today.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=HOV&sid=9328&freq=1&time=3mo

    TK Price Change %
    HOV 32.44 -1.46 -4.31
    KBH 49.82 -1.46 -2.85
    PHM 32.47 -0.65 -1.96
    TOL 31.18 -1.05 -3.26

  57. UnRealtor says:

    There’s a show on Bravo network called “The Housewives of Orange County” and they follow around several plastic families obsessed with money, comparing how much square footage the neighbor has, etc.

  58. James Bednar says:

    FOMC minutes due out in an hour.

    jb

  59. BC Bob says:

    JB, # 57

    I was wrong about the coming flood of inventory, it’s a tsunami.

  60. Rich In NNJ says:

    Take at least 25% off 2005 peak prices for houses/more for Condoshacks Says:
    January 3rd, 2007 at 12:21 pm

    Nice Pulse of the economy.

    WHO GIVES A DAMN IF WE HAVE RECESSION!

    In 1990 had a recession then economy…

    Bob,

    Are you asking me a question or just ranting?

    Rich

  61. Jay Sam says:

    Twice Shy (Re: #25)

    How do you find out about new MLS listing(s) out in Westfield?

  62. twice shy says:

    re: #54

    It’s posted on Realtor.com and GSMLS.
    I know it’s new because I follow the listings closely. Otherwise, you can’t tell without access to MLS.

    If you want to work with a realtor, they can notify you of new listings.

  63. Jay Sam says:

    Twice Shy- Thanks

  64. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Fed focused on inflation, but slump caught its eye

    Members of the Federal Open Market Committee agreed unanimously in December that inflation remained the primary risk to the economy, although they acknowledged that the economy may have been a “touch softer” than they had previously believed, according to minutes of the Dec. 12 meeting released Wednesday.

    While all the central bankers continued to see inflation as the primary threat, several members argued that “subdued” data meant that “the downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased a little and become a bit more broadly based than previously thought.”

    After the Dec. 12 meeting, the FOMC voted to keep the Fed’s overnight interest rate target steady at 5.25% and issued a public statement emphasizing its concerns about inflation and the possibility of additional interest rate increases, despite mixed data hinting at a more severe slowdown.

    One member of the 11-person committee – Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker — voted to raise rates immediately to fight inflation.

    In contrast to Lacker’s hawkish dissent, one member of the group argued for a more balanced statement that would have raised the possibility that rates could be cut, the minutes said.

    Interest-rate futures markets and many private-sector economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates in the first half of the year to prop up the economy as inflationary worries recede.

  65. James Bednar says:

    From the FOMC:

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/minutes/20061212.htm

    Residential construction activity continued to be very weak. Single-family housing starts dropped substantially in October after a slight increase in September, while new permit issuance fell to nearly its lowest level in the past ten years. Construction in the much-smaller multifamily sector continued to fluctuate within a range that had prevailed for the past several years. Inventories of unsold homes remained high in October but were a bit lower than those in preceding months. Sales of new and existing homes showed tentative signs of stabilizing, although at levels well below their mid-2005 peaks. Price appreciation of existing homes continued to slow in the third quarter, and some price measures showed outright declines.

    In their discussion of the major sectors of the economy, participants noted that developments in the housing market continued to weigh heavily on economic activity. Housing starts and permits for new construction had dropped sharply in October, and contacts in the building sector reported that construction firms were continuing to cancel options on land purchases. However, there were some indications that home sales might be starting to stabilize, aided by a marked slowing in the rate of increase of house prices and a decline in mortgage rates in recent months. Several participants also noted that a range of non-price incentives and concessions were being offered by construction firms to bolster sales. But even if home purchases had begun to level off, residential investment was likely to fall further in coming quarters as homebuilders sought to reduce their backlogs of unsold homes.

    Thus far, the adjustment of activity and prices in the housing market did not appear to have spilled over significantly to consumer spending, which had expanded at a steady pace in recent months, buoyed by continued gains in employment and by a decline in energy prices. Retailers in most Districts expected good sales over the holiday season, although some contacts at package delivery and trucking firms reported that activity was less busy than usual for this time of year. Participants noted the downward revision to the BEA’s estimate of personal income in the second quarter of this year, but nonetheless continued to anticipate consumer expenditures to expand at a steady pace going forward. Growth in consumer spending was expected to be supported by favorable financial conditions and solid gains in income from employment, outweighing any damping effect of sluggish increases in housing wealth. Still, considerable uncertainty regarding the ultimate extent of the housing market correction meant that spillovers to consumption could become more evident, especially if house prices were to decline significantly.

  66. TJ says:

    Anyone know if the report below credible or what it means for the Jersey Shore?

    Reports Contradict Predictions of Apartment Market Slump
    The New York Sun Tue, 02 Jan 2007 10:56 PM PST
    Predictions of a significant slump in the Manhattan apartment market in 2006 appear to have been wrong…..

  67. James Bednar says:

    TJ,

    Why not ask the source of that data that question? The source, Jonathan Miller, just so happens to run a great blog as well:

    http://matrix.millersamuel.com

    He has a post up about that most recent dataset which includes many of the articles written about it. Very interesting to see the spin/stance each outlet takes..

    jb

  68. Seneca says:

    JB – re: post #57, you don’t happen to have the 2005 Jan. inventory level for GSMLS? Since the slow hissing sound already started in Fall ’05, it would be interesting to compare the inventory level at market peak vs today and a year ago.

  69. FirstTimeBuyer says:

    I care if there is a recession.

  70. James Bednar says:

    Seneca,

    I do, but the source is slightly different, thus the numbers aren’t readily comparable.

    Have you seen this spreadsheet:

    https://njrereport.com/files/SalesInvOverlay.xls

    jb

  71. SG says:

    FOMC meeting minutes

    Most members seemed to agree on the basic economic outlook, concluding that the slowdown in housing had not yet had any major ripple effect on consumer spending. They did note more signs of economic cooling than had been apparent at the October meeting, especially in manufacturing and business investment.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fomc-focused-inflation-slump-caught/story.aspx?guid=%7BE5853C39%2D132E%2D409F%2DB2E2%2DCA3A54D5A8EB%7D

  72. Rich In NNJ says:

    I understand my previous post of monthly inventory was difficult to read due the order of dates…

    For the curious in Bergen County, here is the number of active residential SFH listings on the first of each month; this does NOT include Condos/Co-ops & Townhouses.

    Date 2004 2005 2006 2007
    01/01 2,218 2,271 3,082 3,140

    02/01 2,258 2,293 3,343

    03/01 2,296 2,331 3,498

    04/01 2,414 2,391 3,807

    05/01 2,625 2,609 4,165

    06/01 2,931 2,938 4,586

    07/01 3,102 3,048 4,703

    08/01 3,139 3,198 4,746

    09/01 3,113 3,223 4,603

    10/01 3,141 4,570 3,454

    11/01 3,003 3,609 4,352

    12/01 2,702 3,534 3,848

    As of 01/03/07: 3,265

    Historical Actives are not available prior to 1/1/2004

  73. James Bednar says:

    Market seems to have taken a bit of a tumble on the FOMC minutes..

    jb

  74. RentinginNJ says:

    Stocks Tumble on Housing Sector Concerns
    Wednesday January 3, 2:56 pm ET

    Stocks Turn Lower in First Session of 2007 After Fed Minutes Show Concern About Housing Slump

    NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks lost momentum and turned lower in the first session of 2007 after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed gathering concern at the central bank about the severity of the pullback in the housing sector.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/wall_street.html?.v=34

  75. Richard says:

    market has taken a quick reversal due to fed minutes saying they’re more than worried about the housing market. i find this somewhat comical since it was their loose lending policies that are in large part responsible for it in the first place.

  76. 2008 Buyer says:

    Interesting indeed….just as FED Fund rates take a while to impact the economy….the housing slump is starting to show its impact. Its slow to develop assuming a 4 to 6 month lagging effect, we should start seeing some of the effects right about….now

  77. MrSchnitzer says:

    Well I know this site is populated with doom and gloom, but I have some good news… my wife and I sold our townhouse (5% off of list) and bought a home (12.5% off of list, which was already reduced 5% prior to our bid, and in the top 20 or 25th percentile for closings in November). Our taxes will be 1200 less in Morris county than our taxes & maintenance fees in the condo which was in Essex county!

  78. Rich In NNJ says:

    Mr. Schnitzer

    So everyone’s “doom and gloom” worked in your favor.
    You are now one of us; you are part of the collective. Resistance is futile.

    Rich

  79. Spelunker says:

    Congrats Mr Schnitzer!

    I would add that “doom and gloom” here is in the eye of the beholder. I am assuming that you mean a down turn in house prices is doom and gloom. At least speaking for myself i see it as birth and sunshine. Sounds like you made out a bit from price declines on the buy side no?

  80. James Bednar says:

    Congratulations, sounds like a good move from both a tax and price standpoint.

    Did this site help you in that transaction? Specifically your offer on the purchased property?

    jb

  81. Al says:

    MrSchnitzer Says:
    January 3rd, 2007 at 3:18 pm
    Well I know this site is populated with doom and gloom, but I have some good news… my wife and I sold our townhouse (5% off of list) and bought a home (12.5% off of list, which was already reduced 5% prior to our bid, and in the top 20 or 25th percentile for closings in November). Our taxes will be 1200 less in Morris county than our taxes & maintenance fees in the condo which was in Essex county!

    Wow – 12.5% off listing price even on 300K home it would be 36K off the listed prce……

    Guess what just happened with all houses in the neighbourhood???

  82. Spelunker says:

    Call the cops… a comp has just been killed.

    sorry. i couldnt resist.

  83. Jay says:

    “If we do get a recession in ’07, which is not likely but possible, that would be the perfect storm that would cause the foreclosure rate to increase more rapidly, and at that point it could become a serious factor for the housing market.”

    So now the appraiser is an economist!

  84. Home Seller says:

    #79

    Good for you. Yes, there are buyers out there. They are being more selective obviously because of inventory. Recent purchases in our town have been 5 – 10% off of peak compared to last year.

  85. Pat says:

    MrSchnitzer

    You maybe should sign JB’s LowBall! spreadsheet. Someday it’s gonna be in the Collusion-Busters Hall of Fame.

  86. skep-tic says:

    It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the tri-state area would become hospitable to the middle class again.

    Housing costs will remain insane relative to the rest of the country (save California) even if there is a big price decline.

    Taxes are the highest in the nation and both NY and NJ state finances are truly hosed going forward due to unfunded pension/healthcare obligations.

    Even immigrants are starting to catch on and moving elsewhere rather than stopping the NYC region first.

    It is a nice place to live, but most of the nice parts are reserved for the very wealthy. Rio and Mexico City have nice parts too…

  87. syncmaster says:

    From NJ legislature considering cap on property taxes:

    New Jersey lawmakers studying how to limit yearly property tax increases are eying a Massachusetts law that bars the levies from increasing more than 2.5 percent but allows voters to override the restrictions.

    […]

    Gov. Jon S. Corzine has demanded caps on the annual tax increases if he’s to approve a proposal by Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts and Senate President Richard J. Codey to give most homeowners a 20 percent property tax cut starting this summer, but no law has been introduced to implement a cap.

    Corzine has suggested limiting annual property tax increases to 4 percent…

  88. chicagofinance says:

    Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil in New York plunged the most in 20 months as mild U.S. weather curbed heating demand and traders speculated that fuel supplies increased.

    Home-heating demand in the Northeast, the region responsible for 80 percent of U.S. heating-oil use, will be 43 percent below normal through Jan. 10, said forecaster Weather Derivatives.

    The Northeast may start to see winter-like temperatures by the middle of January, said Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with State College, Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather Inc. Mr. Bastardi is also a member of the national group “The Italian-Americans born out of wedlock”.

  89. James Bednar says:

    Corzine has suggested limiting annual property tax increases to 4 percent…

    …which is going to guarantee that property taxes *will* rise 4% annually.

    jb

  90. Rich In NNJ says:

    Good one Chi!

  91. UnRealtor says:

    Here’s the tax schedule at 4 percent:

    Year 1: $10,000
    Year 2: $10,400
    Year 3: $10,816
    Year 4: $11,249
    Year 5: $11,699
    Year 6: $12,167
    Year 7: $12,653
    Year 8: $13,159
    Year 9: $13,686
    Year 10: $14,233
    Year 11: $14,802
    Year 12: $15,395
    Year 13: $16,010
    Year 14: $16,651
    Year 15: $17,317
    Year 16: $18,009
    Year 17: $18,730
    Year 18: $19,479
    Year 19: $20,258
    Year 20: $21,068

  92. BC Bob says:

    “i find this somewhat comical since it was their loose lending policies that are in large part responsible for it in the first place.”

    Richard, # 77,

    Just curious, you state “responsible for it”. What does “it” pertain to??

  93. UnRealtor says:

    Regarding sign-in sheets at an Open House:

    The rookie realtor sat at a dining room table covered in brochures and home listings for his first open house. A sign-in sheet contained two names. “Those are fake names,” Charles Durrenberger said. “A little trick of the trade. No one’s come by yet.”

    http://www.explorernews.com/article/show/346

    Call me naive, but I never in a million years thought a realtor would actually do this. Such behavior should be a ‘firable’ offense, perhaps realtors need to create a Code of Ethics to combat such behavior?

    And here we have realtor Charles Durrenberger in Arizona openly admitting to the practice, without a hint of fear.

  94. chicagofinance says:

    Pat Says:
    January 3rd, 2007 at 4:38 pm
    CF..watch your back for the next few years.

    Pat: oh no! doh!

  95. d2b says:

    Skeptic #88-

    Interesting thing about the pension obligation. My neighbor, who is a retired cop, just moved to Delaware. The taxes and cost of living are much less there. State workers are some of the first to go when they retire.

    Unfortunately, he couldn’t sell his home. So, he is trying to rent it.

    New Jersey needs a Governor that is willing to bring the state to it’s knees to get control of it’s costs. It’s not just the unions. County and Municipal spending is out of control. Our community is home to thousands of new homes. All things equal, our taxes should be decreasing.

  96. In fact, dispite the title of this article, I think people should worry about high foreclosure rates. Aside from the individual suffering, they depress the real estate market overall, which affects a lot of people. With foreclosures at record levels, with similiar for 2007, while one need not panic, there certainly is room for worrying.

  97. lowball says:

    To #96:
    Tucson rotten bubble(coming to a location near you):
    40% of homes on the market vacant!
    Whew!
    I know quite a few young couples down there that have been outbidded by the Clownifornia Equity Locusts every step of the way as early as the Spring of 2004!

  98. Pat says:

    Robert, impending foreclosures will cause indivual suffering on a micro basis. Alone, that would flush the excess. Theoretically, pricing should have included this risk, but it’s been re-distributed.

    The problem is that non-participant parties will bear the brunt on a macro basis if the foreclosure losses not properly priced into the loan are shifted either as a tax reduction (or deferral) or even some form of subsidy to primary lenders.

    The question shouldn’t be “Will we pay?”, but “Who will pay?” and then recession’s impact will be clearer.

  99. bergenbuyer says:

    http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2007/01/03/ap3296733.html

    Fed Members Worried About Housing Slump
    By JEANNINE AVERSA 01.03.07, 6:17 PM ET

    Heightened concern about the harsher-than-expected housing slump was an important factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision last month to hold interest rates steady.

  100. njrebear says:

    Robert (property agent) says –

    “With foreclosures at record levels, with similiar for 2007, while one need not panic, there certainly is room for worrying.”

    2007 same as 2006?
    If you go by mere numbers, twice the amount of ARMs in terms of dollar amount will reset in 2007.
    Now compound that with tightening credit and slowing economy. All you will see is paaaannnniicccccc!

  101. njrebear says:

    from calculated risk-

    Twenty two states and the District of Columbia have now adopted the CSBS / AARMR Guidance on Nontraditional Mortgage Product Risks.

    http://www.csbs.org/Content/NavigationMenu/RegulatoryAffairs/FederalAgencyGuidanceDatabase/State_Implementation.htm

  102. njrebear says:

    The most bubbleacious states NJ, CA and FL have not made it to the list yet.

    According to CR
    “The CSBS told me they expect all 50 states to adopt the guidance.”

  103. Clotpoll says:

    UnRealtor (#96)-

    Yeah, and the US should adopt Sharia law, too.

    Puffery and salesmanship don’t exactly rise to the level of prosecutable offense. As a broker, I’m a lot more concerned about non-disclosure of material defects in homes, illegal “tying” arrangements among RE agents, mtg lenders and title companies and mtg fraud.

  104. AFE says:

    Does anyone know the fate of the following

    MLS 2292870

    it was listed in berkeley heights a few months ago and I was not able to track it down>

    Thanks in advance.

    AFE

  105. shopping around says:

    It seem like realtors are still expecting growth. Mine sent me a listing for 459,000. I pointed out to him that They bought for 400,000 on 8/2005 that must be some nice new carpeting.
    his reply
    DON’T FORGET THEY HAVE NEW PAINT TOO. WONDER WHY THEY WANT TO LEAVE SO SOON? IT ISN’T A FIX & FLIP HOUSE, SO THEY ARE LEAVING PRETTY QUICKLY.
    ONLY ASKING ABOUT 11% OVER THEIR PURCHASE PRICE, ACCORDING TO YOUR RECORDS, THAT ISN’T BAD FOR A 2005 PURCHASE.
    WOULD YOU BE INTERESTED IN THIS HOUSE OR PASS?

    Should bob change to 2007 peak

  106. Pat says:

    Agents are NOT expecting growth, just doing their jobs fishing for dumbassfish. This brain-damaged species is common in NJ..esp. within a few miles of the coast.

    Of course, OTOH, you didn’t provide the context (did these owners get a really, really good deal in ’05), or was it at comps?

    Anyway, why should Bob go from 25% off ’05 peak directly to ’07? Did he get a pass on a percent off ’06 wish price?

  107. Pat says:

    Reuters
    “NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) – Doral Financial Corp. (DRL.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Puerto Rico’s largest mortgage lender, on Wednesday said John Ward resigned as chairman after he questioned management’s ability to restore the company to good financial health…

    Doral shares fell 23 cents to $2.64 in morning New York Stock Exchange trading. They peaked at $49.45 in January 2005.”

  108. shopping around says:

    pat.

    Only said 07 since 06 is gone. Since it has litthe details and no pictures its hard to tell much. Also he has stated he expect homes to go up 5 % this year.

  109. housingcrash says:

    AFE

    Im also interested in purchasing in Berkeley Heights, which house was this, do you have address? Are you looking in that area. I noticed there have been almost NO listings in the month of December, whats up?

    What do you all think about Berkeley Heights, nice town?

    Any info, Thanks

  110. UnRealtor says:

    #106

    “sharia law”?

    “prosecutable offense”?

    A little non sequitur mixed with straw man, eh?

    So in your book realtor deception and dishonesty is “puffery and salesmanship” — lovely to know lack of realtor ethics extends past Arizona…

    Some feel you’re a positive representative for realtors here, but many of your comments prove the opposite. Which is probably good to see as well, for educational purposes (like watching a rattlesnake at the zoo).

    If realtors actually cared about integrity, honesty, and a “Code of Ethics,” they would clean their own house, starting with realtor Charles Durrenberger in Arizona.

    That Durrenberger had no hesitation about openly conveying his deception to a newspaper reporter, speaks volumes about how the NAR does business, and does not in any way ensure ethics is a concern among their members.

  111. shopping around says:

    pat
    found 2 homes same area sold same month and Tax assesed at or above that went for 394,000 and 390,000.

  112. Clotpoll says:

    UnRealtor (#106)-

    C’mon, man! Lighten up. What’s the seller’s agent supposed to do? Hand over the house on a silver platter? Tell people who walk thru the door that the “market’s awful”, “things are tanking”, “please make an offer” or “the seller will consider anything”? Do you really believe that a prospective buyer walking into that open house would perceive one name on a sign-in sheet as representative of an avalanche of interest? Any buyer stupid enough to believe something that innocuous represents an immediate, competitive interest to purchase deserves to be undressed. As they say around here, caveat emptor.

    The only interesting thing here was your completely predictable response to my post. I knew you’d rise to the bait of taking any response of mine to flout as evidence of my moral turpitude- and, by association- all Realtors. You are so entrenched in your personal bias that I could write “see Spot run”, and you’d be back onto your usual, tiresome rant.

    Keep repeating the same thing over and over; that’s the ticket. You may eventually bring one or two more people over to the side of mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging propagandists such as yourself.

  113. Jay says:

    please disregard duplicate post in following thread, but it is more appropriate in this one.

    I have charted Rich’s data for historical monthly inventory for Bergen County from earlier in this thread. Thanks for the info Rich, great to have info for Bergen.

    http://hometown.aol.com/stevelazer/images/housing%20inventory%202004-jan2006.jpg

  114. UnRealtor says:

    Clot writes:

    “What’s the seller’s agent supposed to do? Hand over the house on a silver platter?”

    How about representing the property honestly and ethically — why is that such a difficult concept to grasp?

    I’m “predictable” in expecting an organization that claims to have a “Code of Ethics” to actually behave ethically.

    You’re “predictable” in defending unethical realtor practices.

    Guess that says much about us both.
     

    “mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging propagandists such as yourself”

    Charming.

  115. Clotpoll says:

    UnRealtor (#109)-

    Probably a good thing that my original response to your post got shot into a black hole.

    Your self-righteousness is both tedious and delusional. You have appointed yourself the moral judge, jury and executioner for RE agents, so there is no point in further acknowledging or responding to you. Your brain is vacuum-sealed.

    Beware the ethics of those who bleat a little too loudly about the lack of ethics in others.

  116. UnRealtor says:

    “Your self-righteousness is both tedious and delusional.”

    What did you expect from a “mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging propagandists”?

    Beware those who view realtor deception as “puffery and salesmanship.”

  117. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    January 4th, 2007 at 9:41 am
    UnRealtor (#109)-
    Beware the ethics of those who bleat a little too loudly about the lack of ethics in others.

    Clot: are you branding UnReal as the Pastor Ted of the NJREReport?

  118. Pat says:

    From:
    http://www.utm.edu/research/iep/e/ethics.htm

    “a. Normative Principles in Applied Ethics

    Arriving at a short list of representative normative principles is itself a challenging task. The principles selected must not be too narrowly focused, such as a version of act-egoism that might focus only on an action’s short-term benefit. The principles must also be seen as having merit by people on both sides of an applied ethical issue. For this reason, principles that appeal to duty to God are not usually cited since this would have no impact on a nonbeliever engaged in the debate. The following principles are the ones most commonly appealed to in applied ethical discussions:

    Personal benefit: acknowledge the extent to which an action produces beneficial consequences for the individual in question.
    Social benefit: acknowledge the extent to which an action produces beneficial consequences for society.
    Principle of benevolence: help those in need.
    Principle of paternalism: assist others in pursuing their best interests when they cannot do so themselves.
    Principle of harm: do not harm others.
    Principle of honesty: do not deceive others.
    Principle of lawfulness: do not violate the law.
    Principle of autonomy: acknowledge a person’s freedom over his/her actions or physical body.
    Principle of justice: acknowledge a person’s right to due process, fair compensation for harm done, and fair distribution of benefits.
    Rights: acknowledge a person’s rights to life, information, privacy, free expression, and safety.
    The above principles represent a spectrum of traditional normative principles and are derived from both consequentialist and duty-based approaches. The first two principles, personal benefit and social benefit, are consequentialist since they appeal to the consequences of an action as it affects the individual or society. The remaining principles are duty-based. The principles of benevolence, paternalism, harm, honesty, and lawfulness are based on duties we have toward others. The principles of autonomy, justice, and the various rights are based on moral rights. “

  119. AFE says:

    HCRash-

    I really haven’t been keeping close contact with the BH market so don’t take my word as gospel. I just happened to be looking here in the fall and thought I would update my spreadsheet (I was away when this particular listing went off the market and forgot to update). That particular one was listed for 649k. Don’t have an address.

    Yeah, I am in this for the long-run, but prices even in BH seem to be a slowing down, there is one SFH on the market currently that has been lowered since the fall from 739 when I last looked in Nov. to 715. But seriously, what is the rush??!!

    You can pretty much expect a slowdown in the winter months with listings. Check out Union county Otteau report for 3rd Q, and it shows even last Jan there was a slowdown in # of listings…nothing to worry about.
    AS expected the # of sales also fell accordingly.

    How do you feel about the market in BH?

  120. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (from #122)-

    Pastor Ted!! Just too good.

    And, yes, I am labeling UnRealtor the Pastor Ted of GrimWorld. I guess that makes Booyah Bob Pat Robertson (or Goebbels).

Comments are closed.