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No, I’m sorry, but it isn’t the weekend yet.
I want to try something new, instead of opening the Weekend thread later in the day, I’d like to open it early. What usually happens this is posted in the afternoon is that the discussion will get split over two threads, making it hard to follow.
jb
From the Day (CT):
Adjustable-rate Mortgages Are Going, But Not Gone
So is it finally a farewell to ARMs — the once-ubiquitous adjustable-rate mortgages?
You might think so with fixed-rate loans priced just slightly above one-year Treasury-indexed adjustables. After all, why bother with an ARM at 5.8 percent — the average contract rate at the end of December, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America — when you could get a 15-year fixed-rate loan at 5.9 percent or 30-year fixed-rate money at 6.2 percent, all with roughly the same origination fees?
The latest national statistical survey bears this out: New adjustables dropped to a 25 percent share of the total market late last year, according to mortgage investor Freddie Mac’s annual ARM survey — down from a 33 percent share as recently as 2004.
Adjustables, which were first introduced in the United States in the early 1980s, once ruled the home loan roost. In 1984 they accounted for nearly two of every three new mortgages. Of course, those were the bad, bad old days of hyperinflation, when fixed-rate loans went for 15 percent and up, and one-year ARMs in the low double-digits looked like a relative bargain.
From the Star Ledger:
Redevelopment zones expand in Morristown
Additional properties were added last night to existing redevelopment zones along Speedwell Avenue and Spring Street in Morristown.
The Morristown Council’s redevelopment committee also endorsed two firms to redevelop the areas — Scotto Cos. for Spring Street and Trammell Residential for Speedwell Avenue.
The extension of properties to be included in those zones gives town officials and developers more time to work on their plans. The two areas are part of 11 recommended for improvements, and a mix of new housing and commercial space.
The Speedwell Avenue area is expected to have as many as 750 housing units, ranging from apartments to town houses, and 50,000 square feet of commercial space. The Spring Street area could have as many as 240 residential units with 20,000 square feet of commercial space.
Both areas would have as much as 20 percent of the units designated as affordable housing under state guidelines.
When a house is sold, the listing gets put into the MLS with the buyer’s information (Name, City, State and what type of financing)
Very disappointed when I found out that the listing agent put “ARM” on the sold data sheet when it should have been “CONV”. Finally after 2 weeks of calling the MLS and listing agent, they finally changed it to CONV.
I guess this flipper didn’t hear that the market was going south.
They bought for $550,000 in November 2006 and now have put the house back on the market for $899,000. Unfortunately, there are no pictures listed for the current listing so we can’t see the improvements. Whatever improvements were made, I don’t see $350,000 profit especially since it is on a somewhat busy street and has a stream on the property.
Current mls#: 2315481
Previous mls#: 2361162
Oops! It should be
Current mls# 2361162
Previous mls# 2315481
“Consumers in a spending frame of mind”
Retail sales up 0.9%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/retail-sales-show-solid-gain/story.aspx?guid=%7B42AD7EAF%2D2BEA%2D4F8D%2D9ACD%2DD03433EBDCEB%7D
From marketwatch regarding retail sales;
The brightest spot in the report was sales at electronics stores, which rose 3% after a 5.8% gain in November.
The biggest area of weakness was in sales at building materials and gardening stores, which dropped 1.1% in December after falling 0.5% in the previous month. Building material sales have fallen for five straight months
With the big rise in electronic sales why are the shareholders of Circuit City down in the dumps???
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?Symbol=CC&CP=0&PT=4
Bob,
I wish they talked more about YOY as I would think shopping is seasonal.
Wouldn’t merchandise like electronics go up due to holiday shopping and building materials drop due to holidays/winter as well?
Rich
Does anyone know the fate of the new construction on Valley Road in Clifton?
They are no longer on the mls. Have they been sold?
Sorry, I do not have the mls numbers…
My point is, how much does retail sales usually go up in December? Is this number actually flat compared to previous years?
Rich
James, do you mean
356 and 368 Valley road? They are both Under Contract
Both have been on the market for quite some time (300+ days) and have been reduced from the mid 800’s
EXQUISTE LIVING AT ITS BEST. THIS UNIT IS SLIGHTY DIFFERENT FROM #368. CUSTOM BUILT (2006) CENTER HALL COLONIAL FEATURING TOP OF THE LINE CONSTRUCTION. ENJOY BREATHTAKING VIEWS OF NYC IN THE FRONT AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS IN THE BACK. DEER AND WILD TURKEY FEATURED ON YOUR OWN PRIVATE MOUNTAIN. STILL TIME TO SELECT INTERIOR FINISHES. EXPRESS BUS TO NYC LOCATED RIGHT OUTSIDE YOUR FRONT DOOR.
BUILDERS PREMIUM CUSTOM HOME. BRAND NEW (2006) CENTER HALL COLONIAL FEATURING TOP OF THE LINE CONSTRUCTION. BREATHTAKING VIEWS OF NYC AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS IN THE BACK. A MUST SEE. ENOUGH TIME TO SELECT INTERIOR FINISHES. EXTRA LARGE LOT FEATURES DEER AND WILD TURKEY. EXPRESS BUS TO NYC LOCATED RIGHT OUTSIDE YOUR FRONT DOOR.
Jaywalk
They are all under contract
KL
James
I see also 362 there are 3 of them
KL
Rich,NNJ,
You are right, it does not mean much, very seasonal. Also, there are more revisions in these reports than stipulations in teaser rates.
More to do with retailer discounting at X-Mas. However, the consumer is still burning up those CC’s. As long as Joe 6 pack continues to spend, this will cushion the economy from the housing bust. You have to read the details of the report. Gasoline sales were up. Big deal?? The interesting aspect regarding building materials ;the 5th straight monthly decline.
How does one identify an up-and-coming area? Is it purely based on re/development, or are there more factors? What are the current up-and-coming neighborhoods in NJ now?
Thanks
Thanks, KL and thatbigwindow.
When will we know how much they went for?
One has an estimated close date of 3/1/07 and the other 2/15/07…but it could be longer
House prices fall for the first time…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/08b565e2-a1a3-11db-8bc1-0000779e2340.html
… in the UK.
Mike – I believe an up and coming town should have decent schools, nice downtown area (or downtown potential) and accessible from major highways.
With that said, the Lyndhurst, East Rutherford, Carlstadt areas meet that criteria IMO.
Bob,
Thanks and your right. But I was hoping YOU would read the details for me! ;-)
I’m wondering if the MEW originally cleared off a lot of credit card debt that is allowing “the people” room (on their cards) to keep spending? Or possibly high employment means more consumers?
In any case liek you say it’ll keep the economy chugging but it won’t do anything for housing. Right now it this year looks to mirror last year.
Rich
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-flip12jan12,1,3246853.story?coll=la-headlines-business
Pertaining to Flippers in Cali
Overall, flippers last year sold homes for a median $45,000 more than they paid, down from $52,000 in 2005.
spin it however you like, consumer spending numbers were very good and that bodes ill for those hoping for rate cuts.
from JB’s prev. topic: Could it happen?
http://www.donaldcoxe.com/triple_b.html
Up
1. Optimism: 2 years
2. Faith: 2 years
3. Fanaticism: 1 to 2 years
Down
4. Sudden Shock: First Cascade, 6 to 12 months
5. Last Chance: Second Cascade, 2 to 10 months
6. Long-Term Collapse: Third Cascade, 12 to 20 years
Guess we won’t see #4 until next year, btw gotta buy more CD’s..
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/press.asp?rls_id=658&cat_id=6
ContiFinancial … EquiCredit … The Money Store … Southern Pacific Funding…they were the subprime mortgage lending stars of the mid-to-late 1990s.
The subprime lending collapse took a few years to sort out…some thought the industry might never come back…but in 2001, the FED breathed new life into the moribund sector…Things aren’t as bad as they were in 1998 yet…but could get there — fast!
lowball:
If the guy is right (and looking at a couple of graphs on his website), we have passed 4 and can expect a bit of a rally this year (askings stabilise, some people assume the bubble is passed and buy) with stage 5 coming later.
Number 6 means that this will be miserable for everyone, and I mean everyone, for a very long time.
Lowball (25)-
Be sure to stock up on beef jerky, canned vegetables and ammo, too.
And, of course, ramen.
Following up on my post on a thread yesterday (a portion of which I’ve reposted below), I forgot to add that of the approximately $1.1 trillion of non-agency MBS issued last year, prime loans represented only about 26% of that (subprime & Alt-A represented the other approx. 74%).
I just don’t know how the market will absorb all these houses that seem destined to come back onto the market. And because the housing market is slow to change and because the foreclosure process is a lengthy one, I think we’re just now starting to see this problem bloom.
Again, any uptick now is, I think, the first dead cat bounce.
-P
“Two reasons for my view are the impending wave of foreclosure and the drying up of liquidity in the housing market. Given that more than half of the mortgage market now consists of subprime loans, what happens when these borrowers, (i) fail to get loans for home purchases because of tightening underwriting standards (not to mention the fewer number of solvent subprime lenders) and, (ii) for those who did get these loans, default in large numbers? I think the result is that lower-priced homes don’t get sold and subsequently the current owners can’t trade up and secondly, that more housing is available because of both lack of buyers and increasing numbers of REOs.”
Seeing definite uptick in listings in areas I am tracking, lots of returning houses from last year, lot of empty houses (also for rent).
Prices look to be above 2004 but less than 2005 levels, but lots of crazy variation – old beat up houses only 5k less than new ones on similar lots in same neighbourhoods.
Al, it depends on A) if you’re married and B) do you have kids or plan to have them. If this is indeed the case, make the most logical decision for the benefit of the family. If you can handle the commute then Clinton is definitely a better choice because of the community, the schools and according to what you’re saying, the price of buying.
“spin it however you like, consumer spending numbers were very good and that bodes ill for those hoping for rate cuts.”
I agree – and I hope there are no rate cuts. My savings is kicking butt right now. Hurts my private law school loans a tad, but those are very close to being paid off. And I don’t use credit cards, so boo hoo for those that do. It will also hurt anyone with an ARM or who cannot afford to buy without one, helping weed out some more folk who shouldn’t be buying the homes they’ve been buying (and discourge those real estate “investors”).
And higher rates generally signal price cuts for homes anyway – with prices being so out of whack and unaffordable now, who will be left to buy if rates are higher? Sellers will have to be more realistic. Perhaps maintaining rates or raising them will be the thing that actually helps the housing market bust without completely destroying the entire economy. Maybe I’m wrong, but I see higher rates as somewhat of a positive thing to wake people up out of their deluded stupor.
Clot,
Buyers will meet the market also. They will offer 20% under the ridiculous asking price of the buyer.
Thank you for the answer. Are taxes really better in Hunterton?? from what I hear they are either about the same or a lot higher than middlesex/sommercet.
And am not saying I am not willing to meet the market… I simply can not.
I am not even looking in Clinton itself – Clinton is wayyyy too expensive for poor me. SO I am looking at some surrounding towns.
I will stay home and enjoy the game, I guess. I just do not get it – aren’t you realtor??
Aren’t buyers supposed to be your bread and butter??
Aren’t you suppose to try selling the houses instead of telling people to stay home??
I guess, cross another year off my calendar.
You know whats funny ??? If I keep on renting for 5 years, and home prices will not change I might be able to buy house somewhere midwest with cash…. Yea I will work at not as good of a job, but I will not have rent/mortage to pay…
However IF I buy home in NJ, prices do not raise and I have to sell I will have no money left!!!!! (I jts learned another beautful fact about NJ: you pay 1% or more of you capital gains (or is it full price of your home as a sales tax). So what is it – almost 7% costs on selling the house?? SO how can one even risk buying at todays prices?? I guess the stand-off between buyers and sellers continues…
Custom home in Summit for only 866k.
link
Al, if you are not going to be in NJ for the long haul… forget about buying.
I see a lot of decent houses up for rent. Renting rules right now!
and believe me, jobs in the mid-west and south are not bad at all (ofcourse, depends on what you do for a living). I should know, I moved from the midwest not too long ago.
#38, were u making fun of the price? or just stating it?
i’m laughing at the seller’s greed!
Beware…more BS from NAR
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1122007_NAR_Advertising.asp
The National Association of Realtors is not sitting back and waiting for the housing downturn to end. The association, one of if not the largest professional organization in the country is going on the offensive with a $40 million advertising campaign designed to convince Americans that it is a good time to buy, a good time to sell, and a good time to be a Realtor.
#40
I am making fun of it.
However the realtor – Lois Schneider still gets above asking prices for some of their properties. Bidding war???
Lois Schneider is often listed in NY Times. The page with recently sold homes and picture.
People read NYTimes probably think Summit properties are still good investment
[PA]BANKING DEPARTMENT ISSUES NEW GUIDANCE
http://www.banking.state.pa.us/banking/cwp/view.asp?a=1347&q=546332&bankingNav=|32149|&bankingNav=|32149|
RentLord Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 11:25 am
Al, if you are not going to be in NJ for the long haul… forget about buying.
I see a lot of decent houses up for rent. Renting rules right now!
and believe me, jobs in the mid-west and south are not bad at all (ofcourse, depends on what you do for a living). I should know, I moved from the midwest not too long ago.
I haven’t decided if I am going to stay in NJ. If staying in NJ means risking my family’s financial future and always struggling I am afraid good job will not compensate for it.
IF, I do buy a house I would like to stay for a while.
I did live in midwest/west for most of my life. however jobs for my specialty are scarce there due to outsourcing/general manufacturing/research and development decline in US. NJ is getting there in a hurry too. But iit is possible that in 5-6 years my company would move it’s operations to lower costs areas of US. (at least there is serious talk about it). So even if I do keep my employment I might have to move fairly soon.
THe problem is that nobody have crystall ball.
It is hard to predict future right now.
On those Valley Road in Clifton new homes
with the great NYC views , you also get
to look at the Quik Check. Late at night
you may also need a handgun. Also ,is their
an upgrade for bars on the front doors and
windows?
#44, actually the crystal ball is glowing with the words R-U-N for anyone in NJ.
Clot (was that you?) also heard a chugging sound of people leaving.
I have also heard UFOs throwing strange objects at houses in NJ
:)
Ok, let me hear it all, give me your top 5 towns you’d want to buy in and give me the top 5 that are most overrated.
“(I jts learned another beautful fact about NJ: you pay 1% or more of you capital gains (or is it full price of your home as a sales tax).”
Al,
It’s not a capital gains tax, it’s called a realty transfer fee. It is based on the selling price of the home, not your gain. Add this to your realtor’s commission and other related closing costs.
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/index.html?lpt/rtffaqs.htm~mainFrame
Clot/KL,
Can’t the industry march to Trenton and demand that this be eliminated???
Al,
Sell a house for 500k and you have a transfer fee payable to the state for almost 5K. How’s that for a tax that nobody talks about???
“Ok, let me hear it all, give me your top 5 towns you’d want to buy in and give me the top 5 that are most overrated.”
I’m interested in that too Gary. For me, the #1 most overrated town is Maplewood.
i am looking at the mortgage document of a townhouse i am interested in. i am trying to find if it is a ARM since i know the owner is an investor. and it will be 5 year by april 2007. however the document only says “condominium rider” and “1-4 family rider”. how can i tell if it is a arm?
thanks
pete
Any Omaha natives here? I’d love an opinion.
jb
JB-
Not Omaha, would Wichita do?
JM
NJGal,
Yeah, I guess Maplewood is up there.
BC BOB
Clot/KL,
Can’t the industry march to Trenton and demand that this be eliminated???
Your kidding right? Why would we march to Trenton to eliminate that, what does that have to do with us.. we don’t care , no sweat off our commision.
Now that banking in real estate stuff well… we might march against that! Or maybe grims open mls bright idea!!! We’ll definitly be marching against that.
KL
i lived in kansas city.. if that matters
in KC, someone from Wichita was considered to have ‘migrated’ to kansas city
LOL
Al (#37)-
I am a Realtor, but I have no interest in walking people into deals that they don’t perceive to be beneficial. Hoping for a good outcome is not a strategy. It IS better not to buy than to do something that exceeds your threshold of risk tolerance. It’s also a waste of time- for all involved- to pursue deals that can’t be done. Kind of a square-peg, round-hole thing.
KL,
Yeah, you’re right. Stupid of me. What the hell does a realtor care if Trenton is sticking it to the seller??
Rhymingrealtor (59)-
That open MLS thing is something I’d sign up for today. National, web-based registries of listings…all accompanied with a broker’s letter of cooperation/compensation.
Kill the MLS systems! Down with lonely-hearts clubs for Realtors who have no life! Down with self-perpetuating bureaucracies that do nothing to raise the bar of performance for agents!
MLS systems create the info-hoarding, self-serving environment that causes the public to believe we’re clowns.
Hubby’s family is originally from Neb., with the relatives in Omaha.
Here’s one little Kodak viewfinder moment: Picture an employee of a big insurance company who’s sole job for the last 25 years has been to put newspapers on the exec’s desks and make coffee. Wears a suit to work. [It’s a TRADITION, Pat!!!]
Omaha is:
– Economically one-sided,
– Miltary base driven,
– Easy to navigate,
– Family-friendly,
– Enlivened by some skeevy areas, but if you’re from NJ, no prob.
– Relatively boring, if you like diverse culture or nightlife.
Imagine Buffalo, if Buffalo had a huge military installation down on the lake, which supported the economy and inflated housing prices in the better sections.
BC Bob-
If it’s any consolation, NJAR and our overpaid army of flacks (read: bagmen) tried hard to stop the rise in the realty transfer tax. However, the changes were slipped thru in a “midnight session” toward the end of McGreevey’s term as a last-minute rider to another bill.
The whole concept is a slippery little weasel, because it’s a state-mandated tax that is paid to counties. The county where subject properties are located get the payments.
Just noticed that I got put the phrases “McGreevey”, “midnight session” and “slippery little weasel” in the same post.
Too bad I didn’t hit the quinela by including “rest stop”.
Just noticed that I put the phrases “McGreevey”, “midnight session” and “slippery little weasel” in the same post.
Too bad I didn’t hit the quinela by including “rest stop”.
maybe grims open mls bright idea!!! We’ll definitly be marching against that.
Clotpoll Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
Rhymingrealtor (59)-
That open MLS thing is something I’d sign up for today. National, web-based registries of listings…all accompanied with a broker’s letter of cooperation/compensation.
Clot,
I am not against an open MLS, you missed my tongue in cheek.
Maybe cause it didn’t rhyme??
I don’t do it every time~~
KL
close Italics – I hope-
Definitly gotta stop that
Clot, #63
Good one!! You already hit it with rider.
My attempt I hope that worked.
“Ok, let me hear it all, give me your top 5 towns you’d want to buy in and give me the top 5 that are most overrated.”
“I’m interested in that too Gary. For me, the #1 most overrated town is Maplewood.”
Edgewater, Jersey City
“Hubby’s family is originally from Neb., with the relatives in Omaha.”
Pat,
What about the top activity/attraction in the state?? The Cornhuskers.
I thought it was Warren Buffett’s Nebraska Furniture Mart.
BC
When we first met, that was almost the deal-killer – that he traditionally watched Nebraska instead of Penn State.
Fortunately, I’m a forgiving person. Long memory, but forgiving. (I dredge it up now and then).
italics off?
now?
Pat,
I hear that the big events are approx 5-6 times a year when all the farmers descend upon Lincoln for a Sat.home game. I was told the RV’s start coming in on Tuesday/Wednesday. The NFL tailgates can’t/don’t hold a candle to these.
Good call on Edgewater and JC chaotic. Dare I add Hoboken? Maybe not – it’s clean, good transportation to NYC, short commute. But it’s a short term town. I wouldn’t raise my kids there because I am trying to go the public school route.
Clotpoll Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Just noticed that I put the phrases “McGreevey”, “midnight session” and “slippery little weasel” in the same post.
Too bad I didn’t hit the quinela by including “rest stop”.
Clot: at least you didn’t use “Astroglide” and “prostate”
good one chicago
ChiFi-
Multi-yuks.
Home Prices Expected to Rise,
Sales to Drop Slightly in 2007
By Campion Walsh
From The Wall Street Journal Online
U.S. home sales will decline less sharply this year than they did last year, while home-price appreciation is expected to gain steam, the National Association of Realtors said.
In its latest forecast, the NAR said sales of existing homes are likely to decline about 1.2% this year to 6.42 million, following a sharp drop last year, while sales of new homes are seen falling about 9.7% to 957,000.
Because the market is starting this year at a relatively low point, even a gradual recovery of sales during the year would mean that annual totals for 2007 are likely to show no substantial improvement, according to NAR Chief Economist David Lereah.
“The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward,” Mr. Lereah says.
The Realtors’ group, which is running a $40 million ad campaign designed to encourage consumers to contact their local realtors, expects moderate price increases this year. The group forecasts the median sales price for existing homes to grow 1.5% nationally to $225,300, following last year’s estimated 1.1% rise. The national median price for new homes will increase 3% this year to $248,900, according to the NAR, after estimated growth of 0.3% last year.
…
Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist Doug Duncan expects home prices to rise 1% to 2% annually for the next couple of years. But some markets could see price declines of 10% to 20% this year, he says, a shift from the last four to five years, when there were “almost no markets where prices were declining.”
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20070112-walsh.html?mod=RSS_Real_Estate_Journal&rejrss=frontpage
regarding #81
how exactly does “U.S. home sales will decline less sharply this year than they did last year”
translate into
“The good news is that the steady improvement in sales”
?
lurkerA,
It’s all semantics. The article also says “U.S. home sales will decline less sharply this year than they did last year” … so by “improvement in sales” they just mean the rate of decline will be lower.
OMFG!! check out the realtor propaganda!!!!
http://www.realtor.org/pac.nsf/pages/buynow
lol lol lol
83 – I was being sarcastic. sorry about that.
Jack Grubman, Frank Quattrone, Henry Blodget……… 2006-2007, David Lereah.
House votes to require Washington to negotiate directly with drugmakers to get lower prices for seniors, Reuters reports. More soon
http://www.cnn.com
RentLord #39 – where are these decent houses to rent? Houses in my town are averaging $2200-$3000K for 3- to 4-bedrooms. One house in particular was purchased last year for $429K and is up for rent $2300. That’s probably in the same price range as the mortgage, assuming they put 20% down. So that “renting is so much cheaper for the same house” mentality is not really that true in all areas. Rents are up, but so is inventory – probably lots of spectators who can’t get rid of their houses.
Right now I’m renting a 2-bed, 1-bath in a two-family house for $1475. It’s small but we’re dealing with it.
I’m noticing on the broker version of the GSMLS properties that I know are under contract but still showing in attorney review. I wonder if there’s something wrong with the system or the brokers just aren’t updating the information. A conspiracy theory would be that brokers are fearful of houses dropping out of contract so to keep inquiries/interest they leave the status as still in attorney review. Thoughts from anyone else?
Realtor: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Association of Realtors
http://www.realtor.org/pac.nsf/files/resume.pdf/$FILE/resume.pdf
High-five
I know Lois Schneider. I worked with her for a couple of months when looking in Summit not too far back. She’s well respected, knows her business and is fair on both sides of the aisle. Someone that I know that worked with her recently said when the market turned she was in the forefront of recognizing and communicating to buyers/sellers that prices should be based on similarly priced houses currently for sale, not even sold 3 months ago. If you listened to her you probably made 5-7% more than if you were greedy.
Re: NAR ads
“While markets differ from area to area, overall interest rates are low and housing choices are abundant.”
Of the seven print ads, there is only one that makes the statement above. I wonder how many local RAs will choose to advertise with that one. Maybe…. none?
Hopefully, we will see an article on relistings run right next to an ad for the realtor code of ethics, and how it sets realtors apart from other industries.
Maybe our friends Clot and RhymingRe can be trusted, but most of the rest? Doubt it.
>>Sell a house for 500k and you have a transfer fee payable to the state for almost 5K. How’s that for a tax that nobody talks about???
i believe it’s dramatically reduced or waived if you’re a senior citizen (62 or older)
>>For me, the #1 most overrated town is Maplewood.
i agree 100%
How’s the Crabby bunch doing today?
Read My Lips:
HOUSING MASSACRE SPRING 2007….NO SPRING MAGIC..SPRING MISERY!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA (sick moaning 1/2yell)
Bob – happy home(s)owner eventhough prices are deflating.
BLEED”EM DRY by “at least” 25% off of 2005 Bloated House prices/Condoshacks much more.
BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA (moaning sick 1/2 yell)
(I can feel the pain)
Bob
It’s abuse a starving realtor weekend. Kick a few around.
It’s payback time baby for years of trashing young buyers.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Kim, #89 –
I’m not sure of where you are but look at this excellent illustration in yesterday’s thread by Commercial RE Consultant –
Example:
ML# 711577; Renting at $2500. Asking price $559K.
# Commercial RE Consultant Says:
January 11th, 2007 at 4:36 pm
…lets break this down from an investment standpoint:
$2,500 per month = $30,000 in potential gross income. Lets deduct $8,500 in real estate taxes, $600 insurance and $500 in maintenance expenses. Lets also consider a reserve for items that may break or need replacement in the future..lets be real conservative $200 per year. (Boiler roof, new drive way etc.)
This is what we have
PGI $30,000
Expenses $9,800
Net Income = $20,200
Anybody familiar with capitalization rates. Lets be super agressive and use 5.0% most apartment properties trade at 6.0% or higher in Northern NJ. This reflects a Value of $404,000…We didnt even account for a mangament or a vacancy and collection loss deduction…Anybody who purchased a house for investment purposes (non-flippers) in the last couple of years (unless they got an amazing deal) is an idiot!!! Time will punish you!
Rentlord nice work…
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
“i believe it’s dramatically reduced or waived if you’re a senior citizen (62 or older)”
Richard,
Yes, there is a different formula for seniors. No consolation to me when I had to fork over almost 6k for the transfer fee.
RentLord (99)-
Trying to value a primary residence by the income method is as insane as using the comparables (“comps”) method for a strip mall.
Unless, of course, you’re going to rent your home out to a family of four while you’re still in it.
ChiFi, #91, from that National Association of Realtors advertisement:
“When Realtors® complete mandatory Code of Ethics training, they not only set themselves apart from other professionals in the real estate industry, they set themselves apart from many industries. When it comes to buying or selling a home, it’s nice to know that there’s someone you can count on to be honest and maintain high standards of practice.”
Hmmm, from a BusinessWeek article in an earlier thread today:
…adding that they often go out and take new photos at different angles to really fool us all.
Corzine says property tax cap will have exceptions
At a town hall meeting tonight, Gov. Jon Corzine tried to allay concerns about the effect of a proposed 4 percent limit on property tax increases, saying he would like to see the legislation “sunset” after five years and that “exclusions” would be allowed.
“A hard cap is not going to be put in place,” Corzine said. “I’m actually fearful that it’s going to be so holey that we won’t get the savings we are looking for.”
[…]
“We need to break the back of how cost structures are going up,” Corzine said, pointing out that the average local tax levy has risen by 7 percent in each of the past six years. “We will create some escape valves and some exclusions that will still allow us to have some discipline over these rising costs.”
Corzine also said he would advocate that the limits “sunset” after five years, meaning that lawmakers would have to re-enact the measure in order for it to continue. “I don’t think we need a lifetime cap,” he said.
JB, others-
One thing that gets mentioned from time to time is the post Superbowl bounce/kickoff/start to the selling season. Has anyone seen any kind of research on that weekend post-Superbowl? I know it’s a very small window of time, but it could give an early reading on inventory and demand (possibly).
My gut says look for a bigger jump, than the last four or five years, in inventory for that weekend.
JM
The mandatory NAR Code of Ethics training is a DVD that goes thru the code, line by line. In NJ, it must be viewed every four years.
However, as much as I rant at the industry’s shortcomings, the amount of decent and honest folk in my business is pretty much the same as in other walks of life. Our biggest problem is stupidity, not dishonesty. Either you come into this with the mindset of wanting to do the right thing, or you don’t.
The state of CA has had Charles Manson a long time, but they haven’t trained him to behave yet.
RentLord #99 – good point, but the house you cited has rent a lot lower than the mortgage, and rents that I’m seeing are pretty equal to the mortgage. Just doesn’t make much sense to rent a house when you can buy it for not much more! (By the way, I’m in Hanover Township)
We’re staying in our cramped quarters for now…. we’re hoping to buy in ’08 and we hate the aggravation and expense of moving so we don’t want to move unless it’s a house we are BUYING!
Clot, the issue is more that the “good” realtors and the NAR do nothing to clean their own house. Every industry and profession has dirtbags, what makes the difference, is that they are policed and excised by the “good” people in the profession.
These dirtbag realtors like Ross Simone are so unafraid of consequences, that they speak to national reporters about their deceptive practices.
When the good stand by and do nothing, it’s essentially consent.
Kim, as they say RE is local and personal.
This is what all the vultures bank upon. Agents, brokers, State, builders, the list goes on…
I need every penny I can save to send my kids to college and have a good life. Doesn’t mean I make any less than most.
Unless someone can show me math to show buying is better I ain’t buying.
Oh, by the way, I have owned not one but two houses before.. so I know all about ‘owning’.
Can someone please comment on the state of the market in Ridgewood NJ. I’m looking at a house listed close to million, 18,000 in taxes. It needs updating as in central air, heating, kitchen upgrade, paint exterior and interior, new lining for the pool among other things. Seems a bit high in price. Is anyone familiar with the market in Ridgewood and is it a good place to raise a family?
“The sub-prime market was designed with a built-in time bomb. In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in September, Michael Calhoun, the President of the Center for Responsible Lending (CRL), showed an example of the most typical sub-prime loan, known as a 2/28, with an “exploding ARM” (adjustable rate mortgage). Buyers can qualify for this type of loan if the original (”teaser”) monthly payment is not higher than 61% of their after-tax income. At the end of two years, even without a rise in interest rates, the payment will typically rise to 96% of the purchaser’s monthly income. No wonder then, that the study conservatively forecasts that one-third of families who received a sub-prime loan in 2005 and 2006 will ultimately lose their homes!”
“What a joke – 96% of your income will go to servicing your mortgage. I hope that Johnny doesn’t need a new pair of shoes. These mortgages were designed to be refinanced assuming that homes continued appreciating. That ain’t happening now.”
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0112c.html
To # 37,
Al Says:
“If I keep on renting for 5 years, and home prices will not change I might be able to buy house somewhere midwest with cash…”
” I guess the stand-off between buyers and sellers continues…”
=================================================
AL,
for the last 5 years you were doing the things that were supposed to get you somewhere in life.
But homes are now 2-3 times as expensive compared to 5 years ago.
This is WAY more than a stand-off between buyers and sellers.
Has there been any other time in history where young folks that worked hard to better themselves were punished this badly?
The poor/young buyers are being bled dry (no gun to the back of their head needed) ) by the Big Bank/Finance & Uncle S(c)am & China – cabal.
This is how the scam works (Enron style a.k.a.: Uncle S(c)am turning a liability into an asset):
|———> Cheap Cr*p——–>|
| |
CHINA Uncle S(c)am
| & Big Finance Boyz
| |
# 37, Al Says:
“If I keep on renting for 5 years, and home prices will not change I might be able to buy house somewhere midwest with cash…”
” I guess the stand-off between buyers and sellers continues…”
=================================================
AL,
for the last 5 years you were doing the things that were supposed to get you somewhere in life.
But homes are now 2-3 times as expensive compared to 5 years ago.
This is WAY more than a stand-off between buyers and sellers.
Has there been any other time in history where young folks that worked hard to better themselves were punished this badly?
The poor/young buyers are being bled dry (no gun to the back of their head needed) ) by the Big Bank/Finance & Uncle S(c)am & China – cabal.
This is how the scam works (Enron style a.k.a.: Uncle S(c)am turning a liability into an asset):
|—–> Cheap Cr*p——> | | |
CHINA UncleS(c)am
| & Big Finance Boyz | |
# 37, Al Says:
(… continued)
CHINA ->Cheap Cr#p->UncleS(c)am & Big Finance Boyz->over inflated assets ->DEBT-> CHINA
In case you haven’t noticed the Over Inflated Assets are Uncle S(c)am’s FINAL GOAL.
Why?
Answer:
the SOCIAL SECURITY is drying up faster than the fruit punch at one of Britney Spears’ soirees.
The greedy Baby Boomers can now indulge in reverse mortgages/golden retirement/classic textbook case of wealth transfer.
The boomers are just handing the young the ropes to hang themselves …
… and, of course as Clotpoll so elegantly puts it, a litle ramen.
O.K.
Remember the Garden of Eden (quaint story to some, gospel to others)?
Who did the dirty deed?
A. God, for creating something temping (product)
B. Snake, for advising (advice)
C. Adam & Eve (for consenting to consumption).
One could argue that the couple is blameless, since they were innocent. However, they had received specific instruction from the producer not to consume.
In the long run, it doesn’t matter who did the dirty deed. The innocent couple is no longer innocent, and they get evicted. They paid the price.
Who won? The producer of the product. The one with the power. Big Boy.
jomian, you’ve given us no information on the house so there’s no way to assess it’s value. look at other houses on the market that are similarly priced and compare. be sure to tally the # as the more houses the more likely you can work that angle for a better price.
$800k and $18k taxes and it sounds like close to $100k in work you better really like the house.
I am telling you blokes…
3 towns in the US that you should put some serious consideration into would be as follows:
Denver, CO
Ft. Collins, CO
Rapid City, South Dakota
These are all good towns.
I know people in these towns of all income ranges and they all own a decent house and are not trapped in an ARM. Jobs market is decent in these towns too.
But, all those towns have had a RE bubble as well (nothing compared to out here).
I think if some of you blokes pkay your financial cards right, you would make bank and your futture would be such a question mark.
your friend,
SAS
ALso, let me add to that list:
Gillette, Wyoming
Now Gillette is not glamorous, BUT its undergoing a huge boom thanks to oil, natural gas, and coal mines. ALot of people are moving to that town because the mines pay really….really well AND taxes are dirt cheap.
Also, you don’t need a professional skill out there either.
The store is starting people out at $15/hr.
That is DAMN good money for Wyoming, where cost of living is low. All the people are getting paid more at the mines (white collar jobs as well), so companies like Target or Quick Lube, or whatever, have to raise there wage to attract people.
Its a real boom in that area, which I am long.
because I am long in the commidities.
I would seriously consider it if I were some of you.
SAS
Al,
Buying and owning a home isn’t a scam. It’s a long term investment in you, your family and your future. Some thoughts:
1) If you wait for the bottom of the market to buy, you will never buy. Nothing worthwhile is risk free.
2) If your homeowning timeline is over five years, you will come out fine financially.
3) Buy what you can afford, no more.
4) Your first house most likely will not be in the area you desire the most. Just about all homeowners started out somewhere other than their ideal location.
5) RE agents are most loyal to making a sale, and then their customers.
6) Get feedback and recommendations from people who own real property, not those who want to. Owning a home works far better than many of the postings here indicate.
Society and the marketplace aren’t trying to rip you off. Look at the facts and data, be smart and set aside any fear.
Don’t be a crybabywannabeehomeowner!
WAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
“I need every penny I can save to send my kids to college and have a good life.”
I’m always fascinated by this mindset.
I went to college via scholarships and student loans, and would never think of burdening my my parents with paying my college bills.
SAS,
Wyoming is a history of boom and bust. Beware!
Denver is a great place to live; I’d like to return someday.
Meanwhile,
WAAAAAAAAAH!!!
From the people I know who live or have lived in Denver, you need to really enjoy the outdoors. If you have only a passing interest, then you really have a bad fit for your lifestyle.
Dark side of Denver…..huge drug problem among everyday folk…crystal meth is really bad….lots of leftover hippies that moved out of California and their society fringe straddling kids
“If your homeowning timeline is over five years, you will come out fine financially.”
Listen,
Did you own in 1988??? If not, go do some homework tonight.
jomian-
yes, Ridgewood is a great town. two parts – one is high end. other is middle/upper middle class. please read through the archives and you should find many comments about Ridgewood. I think the only knock has been pricing.
JM
However, as much as I rant at the industry’s shortcomings, the amount of decent and honest folk in my business is pretty much the same as in other walks of life. Our biggest problem is stupidity, not dishonesty.
I endorse this message.
Rich
#122 – so did I and my wife.
Between us we have 2 masters and a Ph.D.
But that’s not the point here.
listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners,
Yes, Wyoming does have boom and bust cycles.
But, with that said….
I have ALOT more faith in Wyoming than NJ anyday. ;)
As for Denver, man…. I am very tempted to sell my hacienda and move out and live till the day I circle the drain.
Who knows??
SAS
RentLord,
?
What is the point?
SAS
“If your homeowning timeline is over five years, you will come out fine financially.”
Listen – how do you define “fine financially”?
Say you bought in 1993… adjust these for inflation and tell me whats fine.
Newark-Union MSA Home Price Index Q1
1994 2.37
1995 -2.99
1996 4.42
1997 -0.22
1998 5.11
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ MSA HPI Q1
1994 1.02
1995 -2.73
1996 4.89
1997 -0.35
1998 5.66
Edison, NJ MSA
1994 2.11
1995 -3.40
1996 5.18
1997 -0.21
1998 4.43
Hey Al!!! Fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Does anyone have a realtor they would recommend in the Morristown/Basking Ridge/Bernardsville area that is comfortable with lowball offers?
Rachel
by lowball, I mean presenting lowball offers for the buyer. Sorry if I wasn’t clear.
Rachel
SAS – don’t let the vultures get you!
Why wouldn’t i buy a house and whi do i want to?
I think it is Freedom which is very hard to give up for me… Home buying does seems a bit like prison – financial for this matter.
You know I work hard for my money… I just can not stand throwing away 20K – it takes over a year of hard work and saving an discipline to get it. And to risk it all to just have a house which I might have to sell is a very hard concept for me.
Even if I buy 200K house (btw, please show me come, there re only converted condo’s in this prive range in NJ), nd let’s say it does not apprecite at all in 4 years – quite possible scenario…
Now lets say i lost my job in 4 years and can not makee payments on the mortage anymore – unfortunately I am not independently wealthy….
So I sell the house, pay 6% to realtor, 1% NJ Transfer fee, – thats 14K, if you count load origination fee’s, and closing costs, inspection, title insurance – I am right there at about 25K loss….
Remember this scenario did not reequire ANY price depreciation – just no appreciation. So, just to break even in 4 years I will need about 3% appreciation/year…..
In reality losses will be about 1/3 more since NJ homes are at least 250K…
SO I just can not bring myself to take this risk, considering that in my opinion home prices will stagnate in the next 4-5 years, at least in NJ, because right now we are clearly having affordability crisis.
Plus notn of these calculations included upkeep – my coworker woke up today and his water heater tank was leaking….Possible taxes increases, inability to accept better paying job and so on.
what do I gain byt buying a house: possibility of making a lot of money is pretty much gone, better schools?? I can rent in a lot better area than I can buy in, and I do not have kids yet, you ren never foes up… not in NJ, taxes are rasing 7%/year…
Wihg the house you do get a yard which we do not get with an apartment, garage – we do get one with our lease, may be basement – more space is always nice. I can work on the house and set it u any way i want…. but if i buy right now i will not have money to remodel anyways.
And last, I think the pull to buy is very much psycologicall – I have seen people who bought in the last 4 years getting soo much ahead of me. now they can sell their home and get 200K from it. So they basically get rewarded with 200K for 4 years of renting a house from a bank.
I believe this is what driven the prices to where they are now. everybody felt like all they need to do is to buy at any cost. Unfortunatelly i was in school until last year…. And i did not want to lie on mortage papers about my income/assets. in addition i would not be able to afford the payments anyways.
So for me, the main reason to buy is because i am jealous and I want ot get 200K too.
But in order to do so I need to buy really low…… Hmmm…
“listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners”
thats one hell of a name you have there.
I must admit, owning 3 homes in this area makes me cry every day. The god damn taxes is a major thorn in my side. And the up keep makes me cry too. Thank goodness for my helper Juanita…..
If my kids didn’t live in the other houses, I would have unloaded them a long time ago.
oh well… Looks like moving out of this area is a pipedream. Retirement, forget about it..I will be working until I drop dead.
oh well…glad I have good wine and a beautiful wife with smooth skin to make me forget about it..he he….
SAS
“don’t let the vultures get you”
ha ha.. good one.
;)
SAS
Deficit drops by 1/3 since last year:
Al baby…
You gotta get out of NJ asap.
The sooner you do, the better off.
What is the one thing holding you back?
SAS
UnRealtor (44)-
Let me give you the lowdown on “cleaning up the industry”. The business model of traditional RE is based on “body count”; in other words, hang any license that walks thru the door, and figure out the details later. If one agent leaves, hire three more. Keep feeding the beast.
As you might imagine, that’s a recipe for getting a fairly high number of functional retards- and possibly worse- working in may RE offices. All the big companies (Weichert, Realogy, GMAC, etc) have always worked this way. They have the numbers, they have political clout…and, they have a vested interest in keeping things status quo, even though this death spiral of a business model was proved to be broken years ago.
In several states, the forward-thinking in the industry have been able to ram through the principle of “single licensing”. Simply put, the law is revised to eliminate the Salesperson license class; beginning at a pre-determined date, all licensees must hold- or obtain- a Broker’s license. The last state to pass this into law, Colorado, saw 25% of their licensees surrender their licenses and leave the business when the law passed. Needless to say, it’s a lot easier to find a good agent there these days.
Unfortunately, in order for single-licensing to pass into law, a state’s RE lobby cannot be in the thrall of the “body count”-concept companies. They need that low-level Salesperson license preserved in order to keep grinding out infantry. That, frankly, is NJ in a nutshell. I’ve inquired into simply getting onto my local board, but I’d never be elected, because the directors know my feelings on this subject and will ensure I’m never elected. People who want to clean up the game are outnumbered here and represent a real threat to the livelihood of many agents.
Sites like this, though, are a much better place from which to start cleaning things up. That’s why I encourage the disgruntled to name names and tell their stories. Public exposure is a much more effective disciplinary tool than the private, watered-down approbation doled out behind the closed doors of local realty boards.
“oh well…glad I have good wine and a beautiful wife with smooth skin to make me forget about it..he he….”
SAS,
……………and a few gold bars.
“Deficit Falls to Lowest Level in 4 Years”
smells like some real good cooking going on…perhaps cajun?
SAS
“and a few gold bars”
yup, I do my gardening at midnight. If ya know what I mean…..
;)
SAS
# SAS Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 10:10 pm
Al baby…
You gotta get out of NJ asap.
The sooner you do, the better off.
What is the one thing holding you back?
SAS
Hi SAS.
I have PhD in chemistry and always wanted to work in industry….
Believe it or not, it is one of the worst professions to find a job in US right now. and if in 70th salaries where actually higher than MD’s now ther are a lot lower….
For now I will stick it out for 18 month – untill the end of my contract – my company already offered me a permanent position – i said that i will decide closer to the contract expiration date.
Plus they are payin for my MBA…. (after 12 month of employment) Unfortunatelly only at Rugters I suggested Prineston and was politelly declined :)
Deficit talk;
http://www.federalbudget.com/
Anyone get a load of Schwarzenegger’s health care reform bill? Yikes..
Kindergarden cop and Terminator were great movies, but this SOB is a crooked as all get out. Totally in bed with Lay and company.
IF you want to lower health care America, here is an idea. Lose weight, quit eating like shit, and realize your Dr. slept throught med school because of quarter beer night and googles everything and charges you $hundreds of dollars in the process.
SAS
“Unfortunatelly i was in school until last year…. And i did not want to lie on mortage papers about my income/assets. in addition i would not be able to afford the payments anyways”
Al,
You are on the right track. All markets retrace to their underlying fundamentals. This bust will go on for a much longer time and will be deeper than most can imagine. The free ride is over. Save your cash. If you do want to buy in NJ in 3-5 years, you will have your pickings.
AL,
Mmm… a PhD in chem working on an MBA.. wow!
You are making me look bad ;) rib rib….
I thought proteomics was the wave of the biotech future?
Either way, I would get the MBA on your works dime, then hightail it out of here.
But, since you work is paying for it. There is always a catch. Like having to be remained employed for 12 months after school.
SAS
Fellow bloggers.
What would be a good area to rent in NJ? I am looking for a 2+ bedrooms apt/townhome for rent. My spouse works in staten island whereas i work in lower manhattan (8th st). I am tired of looking for apt. in staten island, and this island is basically a sh!t hole, when it comes to renting (almost no good apt. available (in good area) with commute less than an hour). I really want to keep my commute to manhattan less than an hour.
I looked at elizabeth (on net). It seems good as it is close to staten island, as well as about 1 hr to 8th st. But is it good area? What are other good areas in nj where commute to manhattan would be less as well as relatively close to staten island.
Any info is welcome.
Clot #141, so what you’re saying is that the majority or realtors in NJ want to keep the dirtbags and crooks in the industry?
att,
Woodbridge, Edison, Metuchen. All accessible to SI from Rt 440. Dunno about commute time since that depends on traffic volume. Sayreville is ok too.
I don’t like Elizabeth much.
yes, there is a provision for anothe year, but essentually free MBA it is worth it.
I have enough student loans.
Plus I was told the following: after you work for the company for over 4 years, you get promoted enough,so that if you move you loose significant chunk of income thats the insentive to stay.
And it might have worked in the past when If i would get this job in 2000 I would have being able to buy a house easilly…
now – not really the case. After 2001 NASDAQ bust our salaries are dipped and stayed lat since with jobs being continuosly lost and not created. Hence me hoping to get an MBA now – so when there is no jobs in US left for me I will at least be able to get a job as bank teller :)
Lat time we had an open position we have about 10 canidates form Closed Chemical Companies in NJ… The industry is leaving fast and it is not staying in US….
A far as biotech – I am not in Biochemistry. In addition biotech competition is fierce – espetially with the China and India being soo much cheaper.
Att #150, have you looked into Hoboken or Jersey City? Lots of rentals coming on the market as flippers can’t sell their “investments.”
sync,
I agree, stay away from Elizahood.
Al,
What is your opinion of the Rutgers MBA program?
I have heard it is not worth the cost in terms of the job opportunities it produces. Any truth to this, in your opinion?
ps. apologies to everyone, I know this is off-topic.
“Sayreville”
Isn’t that one of those Jersey shore guido towns?
SAS
to message 150:
Drive through Elizabeth first at daytime, after that decide if you are willing to drive through at night. If you are – than drive there at night, but make sure your doors are locked.
It is better than Newark. I walked around there at daytime. Did not feel scared. I am not tough. but since you feel like staten island is not good enough……well….
Sayreville has changed a lot. I have friends who live there, parts of it are quite nice.
# syncmaster Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
Al,
What is your opinion of the Rutgers MBA program?
I have heard it is not worth the cost in terms of the job opportunities it produces. Any truth to this, in your opinion?
ps. apologies to everyone, I know this is off-topic.
If it is free it is worth it.
General perception I get from people at my work with buisness degree’s – your MBA degree is as good as contacts you can make at your school.
Also if your company sends to school, than getting an MBA opens a lot of doors for promotions/new advancement path within your own company.
Top schools – more prominent people go there, more big companies hiring there.
Unfortunatelly Rutgers buisness programm is not in the top 20. Not in the top 100… not sure about top 250…..
Al,
This is 2004 information so it may be a little dated. But Rutgets is listed as “Considered for ranking”, whatever the heck that means.
http://www.businessweek.com/bschools/04/#top30
UnRealtor (85)-
Not exactly. The majority of Realtors in NJ care more about where they’re eating lunch tomorrow than preserving the status quo. That crew is too submental to either: a) organize themselves in order to better shaft the public, or b) recognize that competence and integrity issues even exist. Remember, RE’s biggest problem is stupidity, not dishonesty.
However, RE companies DO have a vested interest in keeping the licensing structure the same in NJ. This keeps them knee-deep in fresh agent meat. It’s not that they purposely want to perpetuate chicanery; they just don’t know how to move to a business model that would result in fewer- and better- agents.
# syncmaster Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
Al,
What is your opinion of the Rutgers MBA program?
I have heard it is not worth the cost in terms of the job opportunities it produces. Any truth to this, in your opinion?
ps. apologies to everyone, I know this is off-topic.
I researched about Rutgers MBA couple years ago from http://www.rutgers.edu. They have a high placement rate (8-90%??). However they are starting salary is about 75k-80k!!! it is a bit low.
just my 2 cents
cc
Yeah that is low. I make more than that right now and I only have a BS. Of course with the MBA I’d have a much more comprehensive skillset. Hmmm………..
I researched about Rutgers MBA couple years ago from http://www.rutgers.edu. They have a high placement rate (8-90%??). However they are starting salary is about 75k-80k!!! it is a bit low.
just my 2 cents
I do not have a lot of trust in universities survey’s….
And buisness school rankigs are very subjectives. All I know is that if you attend Harward, chicago, Columbia, Yale, and few others you will do well, no matter what you connection/situation might be. It is kind of like a law school – all not so famouse schools will tell you that name is not so important…
Yeah with a Yale MBA you may even get to be President ;)
att,
From Woodbridge Township, the Outerbridge Crossing is really close – MapQuest is showing 5 – 6 miles from a random address in Iselin.
I travel that route from NJ into Staten Island all the time when my brother is driving me home to Queens.
There are lots of co-op/condos for rent, but most seem to be one-bedroom.
I would look for a house to rent. Average rent on a 3-bedroom house in good condition seems to be about $1700.
Ok last MBA-related question for the night: Anyone have any thoughts on NJIT MBA?
if you want money – go for hedge fund trader job… 1mil+ bonuses to good ones…
att,
That’s $1700 in Woodbridge Township.
Metuchen is nice, too. Right down the road.
Al,
Are you for real??
listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners! It’s not by accident they’re wannabes!
WAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Metuchen Is a great town. And train station is right there…
Are you for real??
whan do you mean??
Yes Metuchen is nice. Main street has some nice cafes.
att,
Try move.com for rentals.
http://www.move.com/searchresults.aspx?loc=Isel
in%2c+nj&mnpr=&mxpr=&mnbed=&mnbath=&terms=&dist=0<yp=P&styp=rent
Clotpoll #162,
“Remember, RE’s biggest problem is stupidity, not dishonesty.”
Very well stated. Stupidity, and people twisting data to justify their personal situations. Like being a crybabywannabehomeowner.
WAAAAAAAAAA!!!
att,
That link didn’t come out well, but I was trying to send you the search results for Iselin.
Also try Woodbridge, Colonia, Metuchen, Edison, Menlo Park.
Elizabeth and Linden are sort of industrial.
Metuchen is a nice town. You’ll pay more to live there.
WAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
5 years is an interesting time line, not sure where you came up with it. I bought in 89 -in 97 when I thought I could possibly get out of there I had 3 realtors in to give me a cma. I was not a realtor then. The were all with in the same price range which amounted to 15,000 less than we bought for in 89″ we entertained the idea of walking away in 91 but we didnt, we stuck it out. We did however walkaway in 97 after that sobering news from the realtors.
So in order to build up my credit and savings it takes about 8 years and here I am again. But this time I know better. Yes I want to buy but I cant do it again in this type of market.
Unless of course I want to relive history.
Yeah…. no
KL
Clotpoll,
Dude, that was harsh. I thought realtors were supposed to have people skills? :P
rhymingrealtor,
Fear the risk? wannabe. Overpay for your last purchase? wannabe. This blog is littered with people who seek to justify their wannabe status with pieces of information that add up to zero market information. Don’t be a wannabe!!!
WAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Clotpoll (#180)-
Right on! Exactly what I meant when I asked Al if he is for real. Only you state it so much more eloquently.
WAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
And it is very sad when people using personal attacks as an argument. Kind of desperate if you ask me….. Kind of like realtors/sellers right now….
StarvingRealtor #183,
Look at this non-wannabe:
MLS 2261656
Lost $400K in 12 months. Look up the prior sales.
How did he get so smart? He’s not a WannabeBagholder, he’s a genuine Bagholder.
Note: the whole place sold for $342K in 1996.
First owner won big, second owner lost big.
Buying real estate doesn’t always make sense — and “now” is not always the time to buy.
” Is there anything I’ve missed here?”
yup, I think you are missing something: background.
I think AL is doing a good move, and proabley best for him.
Lets just put it this way… what do you boys know about the pharma and biotech fields? If so, how far up the ladder do you know? How much do you know about the FDA and FDA approval?
Jobs are going overseas, and AL did make it sound a little exaggerated, but with that said, I think he is doing a good move. But, the real reward will be to move out of NJ ;)
Getting late and my warm milk & cognac is making my tired.
SAS
Trust me, anyone with science and a buisness background is very marketable. Yes, there is competition, like in everything.
# syncmaster Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
Clotpoll,
Dude, that was harsh. I thought realtors were supposed to have people skills? :P
I actually liked it – they have very good skills in twising reality…. Kind of like our good friend David A. Lereah.
In general if i owuld be NJ seller or realtor I’d be very worried too.
credit is slowly drying up – I heard of few lenders not doing 100% no doc loans anymore… Not doing 100% stated loans anymore. When people have to put down 5% (15K of their own money) they are worried, especially if it is obviouse that tey can not afford the ayment. So here goes anybody with household income below 75K… (majority of NJ)
Also people like me ar not buying… who is left – Commuters to NY??? they all bought in the lt 5 years….
So the sellers and realtors are very worried…. I think I will eed to get a gun to protect myself from them, when they will go hungry……..
“Buying real estate doesn’t always make sense — and “now” is not always the time to buy”
Yup, well said.
SAS
Ok the last one and I am off to wonderfull land of dreams:
Do i sense some jealousy since I have a chance to get a free degree, while keeeping my dayjob???
Plus they are payin for my MBA…. (after 12 month of employment) Unfortunatelly only at Rugters I suggested Prineston and was politelly declined :)
Al,
I’m on Princeton U’s website and don’t see any indication that they even have an MBA program. Can you please point me to the correct URL so I can research this? Thanks.
To SAS’s post: Jobs are going overseas, and AL did make it sound a little exaggerated, but with that said, I think he is doing a good move. But, the real reward will be to move out of NJ ;)
For ANY company in US right now, espetially for chemical/boitech: one huge lawsuit against it, and it is out of buisness…
So we are spending 50-60% of our time (very conservative estimate) and resources covering our A$$E$ instead of working and developing better products. R@D in India and China do not have this problem.
This problem is a lot BIGGER from the inside, believe me. If you know anybody working in chemical industry in bigger company with a lot of assets ask them….
And Lawyers got student loans too…. that does scare me a lot…
http://www.princeton.edu/~bcf/mfaqapply.htm
Q: How does Princeton’s MFin compare to an MBA?
A: Unlike an MBA program, we teach only finance and the related prerequisite disciplines (such as statistics, accounting, etc.). This allows us to do so at a much deeper level than in an MBA, and to incorporate all the interdisciplinary aspects of modern finance, such as financial mathematics, financial econometrics, computational finance, behavioral finance, corporate finance, etc. You should be aware that our courses are more demanding, and more quantitative, than a typical MBA course. In general, MFin graduates will not be as attractive as MBAs in the corporate finance and M&A areas where the non-finance parts of an MBA curriculum are useful. In fact, if that is where you really want to work, you would probably be better off following an MBA course of study. However, if you are interested in other areas encompassed within the modern investment bank such as quantitative asset management, risk management, derivatives pricing and trading, fixed income analytics and other areas where a quantitative background in the theoretical and practical aspects of modern finance is essential, we think our program is being recognized for both the quality of the students and the quality of the learning experience here at Princeton. We also note that the world of finance is much broader than the traditional investment banking firms, with opportunities in insurance, commercial banking, commodities and energy trading and risk management in traditional industrial companies to name only a few. Our graduates are able to compete very effectively for these types of careers.
Right, I saw that. It talks about Princeton’s Masters of Finance program and how that program is not an MBA. I still see no indication that they even have an MBA.
owever, if you are interested in other areas encompassed within the modern investment bank such as quantitative asset management, risk management, derivatives pricing and trading, fixed income analytics and other areas where a quantitative background in the theoretical and practical aspects of modern finance is essential
I think I’d love to learn this stuff… Unfortunatelly I am dead serious…
(Al is super-Dork:)
If R&D in India builds a product that then harms US consumers, can’t US consumers still sue the company that sells the product in the US? I’m unclear on how they are less vulnerable than R&D in the US.. as long as they sell their product in the US.
What am I missing here?
Al (#118)-
#118 was a nice, upbeat revision of the post that prompted my rant. Your earlier posts were most worrisome…kinda like something somebody on Wellbutrin would write before the docs get the dosage calibrated.
And, of course, you rallied like a champ by employing the deus ex machina Dork argument that as a Realtor, I must- by association- be filled with rage and loathing as my bank account rapidly approaches zero. Of course, you’ve then become another lost sales opportunity on my dark, silent road to financial oblivion.
I’m actually relieved to see that you’re just another passive/aggressive LOD member and not clinically depressed. And, you would do well to remember that agents who give you honest advice (like earlier today, when I advised you against buying a home right now) are probably not prime candidates to be joining the “starving bunch”.
they can sue the company that sells the proucts in the us thats right – what assets would this company have – may be a warehouse.
All profits are paidto investors. normally those intermediate companies are renting everything. So they are liable only with their current bank account. N
Yes, you might get 1% of their sales value. a lot less attractve target for lawyers to target than MERK.
In addition it is class action lawsuits and punitive danages that are huge. Remember that person who spilled hot cofee on herself at McD???? what was it – 10 millions or more for pain and suffering???
In addition enviromental/regulatory/local municipalities barrier for actually having manufacturing in US is huge…
By the wy did you ever heard of toic clean-up buisness – ever wondered why since about 1980 no companies that does toxic clean-up exists for more than few month after they are done with particular job???
Look into it – very nteresting reading. Example when accepting a new law benefited only lawyers. But benefited them greatly and indefinitelly.
To SAS’s post: But, the real reward will be to move out of NJ ;)
You know, I have one very unsusual observation about living in the east vs. west.
With all the disadvantages I feel that people in the east are more focused and concentrated on gettting the job done compare to western people. Even rudeness of everyday encounters somehow help you mobilize and concentrate on the target more – it’s like ok lets get it over with.
Is it just my impression….
As far as place for retirement right now I’d take West anytime… But retirement is too far ahead right now….
In case you missed it the first time:
5 years is an interesting time line, not sure where you came up with it. I bought in 89 -in 97 when I thought I could possibly get out of there I had 3 realtors in to give me a cma. I was not a realtor then. The were all with in the same price range which amounted to 15,000 less than we bought for in 89″ we entertained the idea of walking away in 91 but we didnt, we stuck it out. We did however walkaway in 97 after that sobering news from the realtors.
So in order to build up my credit and savings it takes about 8 years and here I am again. But this time I know better. Yes I want to buy but I cant do it again in this type of market.
Unless of course I want to relive history.
Yeah…. no
KL
“China Foreign Currency Reserves Pass $1T”
http://tinyurl.com/ycn4a2
Yikes!!
SAS
jb,
I’ve read it here on this blog. NJ house prices doubled in five years. You all missed the boat.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Ad on Yahoo! this morning:
“$745,000 mortgage $2345 per month”
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
So what are you waiting for? Lever up!
By the way, I recall having asked you to register with a real email address.
Thanks,
jb
Just want to thank a few here with answer to my question in the other thread. Didn’t want to derail that thread further after asking my question.
Moral of this thread so far–
A smart Chemistry PhD to become greedy lawyers instead of bankteller or real estate agent and buy a place outside of Maplewood next year.
On a more upbeat note re Pharma n home purchase… research triangle in NC? Or Indi? (Lilly) The part CT Pfizer is at is in a cheaper section. (Or, how about their plant at Purto Rico? New too. At least it’s not China or India). Or pick up steadily dropping price in San Diago (though more bio tech than pure chem) or MA? (In the city Harvard new plan for Allston includes major science expansion. Outside the city the tech corridor along I-95.)?
When said ‘n done, housing price in NJ is not indexed by pharma jobs (Neither is Boston or San Diago but at least there are more correction to the still bloated price). Situation seems different (seems) in a town that is indexed to the pharma facility. Hearsay, but I was told Lilly employees get perks around Inniapolis. They gotta sell to senior chemist, not senior analyst.
jb,
LOL – yeah, that mortgage would make anyone cry.
Email address works, has been for over a week. I’ve been receiving email there.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
jb,
just sent an email to the contact email address for this blog.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
“NJ house prices doubled in five years. You all missed the boat”
yes, alot did miss the run up to cash out, but these same people will not get caught with their pants down as RE tumbles down to a more affordable level.
Let us not forget, real estate is tangible but not liquid. Go ask any seller on the market in the past 6 months, and they will tell you.
IF you don’t have the money in the bank, you haven’t made a dime.
yes?
SAS
Thanks all of you for replying on where to rent in nj.
Regarding elizabeth – is it a safe area? I’m a bit concerned because I found that there are 5 public housings there (although it is a big town). Any inputs on the personal safety in this town?
My office is in lower manhattan. So any train from nj would lead me to ny penn station and then I’d have to grab a local train – adding to my commute
I’ll start searching rentals in woodbridge township too.
BTW this is the url of the rental that i was looking at in elizabeth.
Any one familiar with this area?
http://www.rent.com/rentals/new-jersey/newark-jersey-city-and-vicinity/elizabeth/575134/2/?sp=1
JB – remember u were wondering why staten island is not a real estate paradise?
Well after about 1.5 months of rental searching, I’m also wondering the same thing.
Most of the apt. complex do no have a vacancy. One apt. complex which is quite nice has it’s waitlist increasing by 1 person every week. They told me that if I want, I can add myself to the waiting list, but there would be 5 people ahead of me (and this is when no tenant has give them the ‘moving out’ notice).
Then there is a huge apt. comple x owned by Donald trump. The broker there told me that they do only 1 year leases. I asked what if i want to buy a house in say 18 months, I do not want to sign another 1 year lease. To this the broker told me that they do only 1 year leases and i f I try to break lease, they would SUE me for the remainder rent of the year. To add to it he told me almost threateningly that Donald Trump has the best team of lawyers who sues the tenants. – Well that’s one hell of an advertisement.
I’ve looked at about 7-8 apartments, the one I liked got snapped up the next day.
That’s why i’m thinking nj would probably be a better place to rent.
Someone mentione before that the rents rarely go up in NJ. Well in Staten island you are guaranteed to have them go up by $30 per month (if your landlord is benign) and a few hundred dollars (if the management co. is aggressive)
SAS,
If you bought in late ’05 and now need to sell, including all selling costs, you have a loss. If you hold the property five or more years, you are certain to have a gain.
RE is not very liquid, and it won’t typically be bought and turned in a 12 month period at a profit, even in a sizzling market. In five years, often less, it will be. Plus, you get the utility of having a secure place to live during that time. That is worth at least the cost of the monthly mortgage payments.
If someone bought a house and left himself with no cash – that only complicates the ‘must sell’ situation. But that is a measure of the RE owner, not the RE market.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
att,
Elizabeth is ghetto. There are lots of rental units within walking distance of Metro Park, Metuchen and Edison train stations. You can disembark at Newark Penn and take PATH to lower Manhattan, no need to go to New York Penn.
Hey listen,
Can you please offer something of substance.
Scenario A
1) Got into a bidding war, overpaid 100-150K
2) Only way to afford, I/O with piggyback, have no clue how to pay upcoming adjustment, have to sell, can’t refinance unless I bring 50-75K to closing.
3) Refinanced, tapped all equity, home is appraised less than my obligations. I’m upside down.
4) House is sitting empty, will have to rent at $500 negative monthly cash flow.
5)Open house every weekend, nobody shows.
6) Stuck with two mortgages, bought before I sold.
7) Behind on my monthly payments.
Scenario B
1) Sold into this madness, flush with cash.
2)No concerns regarding a declining market, nor I/O’s
3)Not naked long
4)Zero debt
5)Although RE is a negotiation market, will buy in a auction type mode.
6)Will have 10 sellers dropping their wares for 1 transaction
Who is the wannnabe?? By the way, why don’t you change your log in name. Wannabe is just as worn out as is soft landing/goldilocks. Again, if you can’t offer anything of value get the hell out of the batters box. You may get hit with a high hard one.
A smart Chemistry PhD to become greedy lawyers instead of bankteller or real estate agent and buy a place outside of Maplewood next year.
I have entertained this thought…..
As far as safety of the Elizabeth – as I said in my earlier post – you may want to drive through there a night/evening – and not only on main road but drive around this apartment location…
If you bought in late ‘05 and now need to sell, including all selling costs, you have a loss. If you hold the property five or more years, you are certain to have a gain.
# Al Says:
Italics …
to post 216:
If you bought in late ‘05 and now need to sell, including all selling costs, you have a loss. If you hold the property five or more years, you are certain to have a gain.
CAn I get a personal guarantee on it – 60K escrow account will do.. After that I will buy a house from realtor who would tell me that. It is very easy to say when it is not your money at risk.
italics off?
BC,
Is your name reflective of your era?
Get a grip, buddy. Based on the tone of your email, I have added something of substance. Option A must be you.
I feel for whoever is in situation A, but that is not a reflection of the RE market; instead it reflects decisions made by an individual.
The logon name says it all. Listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners. It’s not changing anytime soon, because this blog is full of ’em.
WAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
“But that is a measure of the RE owner, not the RE market”
I think I see where you are coming from, but the RE owners make up the RE markets.
Yes, RE is a good investment, if you buy and sell at the right times. Ex. I bought moons ago, prices can go up and down, I don’t care my house has been paid off many years. But people like me (and perhaps you) are the minority.
ALOT of people are rolling the dice in hopes that RE better damn well go up, or they will be upside down and banks will come a calling for their $$.
In my estimation, I think the majority cow herds went on a buying frenzy in the past 5 years (way before 05, let us think broader than 05), driven mostly by speculation and irrational exuberance. You take this out of the markets…. look out…
I agree RE is a great investment. But as we all know, market timing is everything.
ANother example, I made some nice jack on .coms back in the day, so I loved it. But how many people got burned on .coms???
THere was a time .coms was a “good idea”.
My point, market timing is everything and don’t follow the herd because most people do the wrong thing at the wrong time.
SAS
But doesn’t the herd actually move markets for a while? If you can get in with the herd and get out before the herd does… you could do well.
Listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners
you know… I am getting tired of listeining to the cry baby wanna be RE sellers and RE agents crying a river because they can’t sell their RE.
Does it not go both ways? But, I do see the tables starting to turn. Sellers seems to be stomping their feets in disbelief that they can’t sell their house overnight and nobody is bidding anymore.
I need my morning coffee. I’m buying ;)
SAS
syncmaster,
reread my post #224.
I know the game.
SAS
BC,
“Is your name reflective of your era?”
More reflective of this era, Before Crash.
“Option A must be you.”
What can I say?? Just plain thickwitted.
sync,
Of course the herd moves markets. It’s those that recognize that prices can not be sustained,based on fundamentals, and react that truly profit. I asked one of the most successful traders/investors that I have ever come across, “what do you attribute your success to??”
His answer; I always sold too early.
Maybe next year it will decline…or the next…
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/13/nyregion/13property.html
Property Values in New York Show Vibrancy
As the nationwide property market cools, real estate in New York City is showing surprising vibrancy, with estimated market values jumping by 19 percent in 2006, double the increase from the previous year, city officials said yesterday.
And the steepest jump in market values is occurring in the Bronx and Brooklyn, with increases of 27.6 percent in both boroughs. That suggests that the booming real estate market is continuing to shower benefits far beyond the gilded confines of Manhattan.
The data come from the most authoritative snapshot of city property: the annual assessment roll, which contains market and assessed values for all residential, commercial and other property. Yesterday, the Finance Department released the tentative roll, which will largely determine taxes for the fiscal year that starts this July 1.
The city estimates market values based on sales figures in the case of houses, and on potential income, in the case of apartment buildings, condominiums, cooperatives and commercial properties. The market value becomes the basis for the smaller, assessed value, which is then used to calculate the tax bill.
“Property Values in New York Show Vibrancy”
Really?? I know alot of people in manhattan that can’t sell or rent out there apt without taking a price reduction.???
wow?
where is NYT when you need them?
SAS
ADA,
I don’t believe anyone has argued that prices are going down everywhere.
BC BOB #233
hear..hear…
SAS
(rules of parliment, when one agrees)
Though looking at current trend I am not buying anything right now, but was very deeply researching houses in December thinking that market might pick up in Spring.
My ideal location is North Brunswick, but the prices are as high as South Brunswick why anyone want to pay for average school district.
South Brunswick unbelievable prices (in central jersey),
same for MOnroe far from highways and still prices are similar to South Brunswick. Franklin Twnship is cheaper but schools are horrible.
East windsor is cheaper too but bit far.
I am looking for single family house and I have 6 month old at home (so schools are not that concerning but as they say in real estate location, location, location) Any comments appreatiated.
Sync,
Right; prices are not declining in NYC but will this not have the affect of forcing people to the surrounding more affordable areas.
just sent an email to the contact email address for this blog.
Thanks!
WAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
Always wanted to do that, did I get the ratio between A’s and H’s correct?
jb
“The sub-prime market was designed with a built-in time bomb. In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in September, Michael Calhoun, the President of the Center for Responsible Lending (CRL), showed an example of the most typical sub-prime loan, known as a 2/28, with an “exploding ARM” (adjustable rate mortgage). Buyers can qualify for this type of loan if the original (”teaser”) monthly payment is not higher than 61% of their after-tax income. At the end of two years, even without a rise in interest rates, the payment will typically rise to 96% of the purchaser’s monthly income. No wonder then, that the study conservatively forecasts that one-third of families who received a sub-prime loan in 2005 and 2006 will ultimately lose their homes!”
Nice, 96% of your income will go to servicing your mortgage
Why worry about buying now???
Peer pressure….
96 PERCENT
I have friends my age ( late 20’s where ) one of the couples checks might as well just have the mortgage companies name on it is stead of the persons.
No way, I’ll live as trailer trash before that at the end of the Teterboro runway.
Al,
F*ck the peer pressure. The herd stampeded into this market, bought at ridiculous, overpriced levels and now are trapped. You want to be a peer?? Get that idea, peer pressure, out of your head. If you buy now and the house/condo declines 10-20% over the next 3 years are your peers going to compensate you for the loss??? If you decide to take a job, outside of NJ, in the next 3 years, what will happen if you can’t sell at your price??? Will your peers step in and buy at your price. This is the single biggest investment “you” may ever make. Your peers are not signing on the dotted line. Are your peers in tune with this market???
BC Bob (233)-
Hate to say it, but our friend Al invited that shot by going into WAAAAHHH mode earlier in the day. Those earlier posts sounded like he’d cued up the Depeche Mode and gobbled a couple of tranquilizers.
When he finally came clean about his situation, I couldn’t understand why he’d even think about buying a house. Nice rental, nice job, free MBA on the company dime, no kids, footloose…does this sound like anyone who should EVER buy a home here?
If anything, Al sucked ME in with his tale of woe and dropped the sandbag. I’ll be wary in the future of this passive/aggressive, Dork-like, wannabe tactic.
WAAAAAAAHHHHH!
If you bought in late ‘05 and now need to sell, including all selling costs, you have a loss. If you hold the property five or more years, you are certain to have a gain.
For someone that has criticized the prognostications made here, I’m very surprised that you are so cavalier in offering your own.
jb
“When he finally came clean about his situation, I couldn’t understand why he’d even think about buying a house. Nice rental, nice job, free MBA on the company dime, no kids, footloose…does this sound like anyone who should EVER buy a home here?”
Clot,
I agree. That’s why I did not understand your post. I apologize, I did not realize that Al pulled a 360. Must be all that peer presuure.
I have a question for Clot or Rhyming –
I sometimes see houses with “sold” signs on their front lawns with the names of major brokerages like Weichert, but I know I haven’t seen the houses listed in the public MLS.
My impression has always been that the better houses don’t make it into the public MLS – that one brokerage gets the listing and if it sells right off, it doesn’t go into the MLS where other brokers can see it.
Is that the correct impression?
Are any of the brokers/agents here planning on attending the Otteau spring workshop? If so, which date/location? I’d like to finally put some faces to the names. It might be an interesting opportunity for some of us to get together (this applies to non-RE folks as well).
jb
Gatam Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Franklin Twnship is cheaper but schools are horrible.
Actually not true, Franklin Township elementary schools are really good, the High School had serious problems with overcrowding but the new one just opened and a lot of issues have been removed. School ratings show what WAS, not what is and Franklins are moving back up with school improvements and demographic are changing (huge Indian contingent now with great academics). Just avoid the area close to New Brunswick.
As an aside, I know teachers in both Franklin and North Brunswick districts and North B. definitely comes out worse. They have some major issues that they cover up.
WAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Note the correct crybaby cry. All caps, 9-15 A’s, depending on the scream depth and quality, one H, and three, always three, exclaimation points.
All together now,
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
BC,
Out of 1.2M NJ homeowners – or whatever the number, you exclusively managed to sell at what crybabies call the market peak.
My hat’s off to you. Whatever drives your prescient foresight – be it a crystal ball, Weekly World News article, tarot cards, direct communicatio with God, or just dumb luck, can you kindly share it with the rest of us mere mortals?
This comment merits 10 A’s.
WAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
jb (#243)
Point well taken.
Fire away.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
“Whatever drives your prescient foresight”
Listen,
No foresight. Just listened,[no pun intended] to the market. I’ve said before that RE, pre bubble, was always a fantastic investment. You put down 20% or more, at least 10% with pmi, and you had a good solid investment. It kept up with the rate of inflation, some years a little better. Homeowners were buying a place to live and a life style with a nice tax deduction as an added incentive. You build up equity “slowly” and you ammortize a loan. Pre bubble, investors were focused on valuations, monthly cash flow, cap rates.
This all changed after the Nasdaq crash and 9/11. Liquidity flooded the market. This market turned into a get rich quick scheme. Valuations/cash flow were abandoned, fast/hot money was in vogue. When the fundamentals that have ruled this market for 100 years, prior to 2001,were renounced and the market turned into a pork belly pit, resembling a mad cow disease market, I just took notice. Nobody rings a bell at the top. To me, the bells were ringing so damn loud that I was getting migraines. Again, no acumen for timing, just listening [no pin intended].
You seem like an intelligent individual. Can you please offer some value to this site. Can you explain why I/anybody should buy this market as the data continues to intensify downward.??? I always feel that I’m missing some key data. Can you please provide any supporting data to buy???
Good Morning Crabby Bunch!
It’s happening just as predicted. The crabbiness index increasing with each day week and month pass as this real estate deBloat continues on its downward path.
No more dollar bills falling from the skies crabby bunch.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA (SICK moaning 1/2 yell)
Bob
A Crabby bunch indeed.
Gotta work for a living now?
No more ATM machine refills?
Can’t sell at the fantasy price?
Gett’en squeezed by the ARM adjustment?
How’s it feel?
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob – a very very HAPPY home(s)owner watching the crabby bunch squirm
Scribe (245)-
Not really the case these days. When the market runs hot, you can sell a nice home within the office without listing it, but that’s a super-rare event now.
What’s most likely happened is that the homes you see with “Sold” signs were either listed and sold very quickly, so they came off the public site before you could catch them…or, the listing agent did not direct GSMLS to post the home at the public site while it was listed. Every listing that is taken must have the agent’s consent to be placed at gsmls.com; it does not post by default. What you see there is 97%+ of the homes available, but there are always a few that don’t make it.
Attention Young buyers:
Do yourself a major favor….
Do NOT listen to the crabby bunch. Take “at least” 25% oof of 2005 Bloated House prices
What a grumpy bunch these days?
Seem to be more grumpy these days than 15 years ago. Can wait to see how crabby they are in Spring 2008 “The depth’s of Misery”
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA (sick moaning 1/2 yell)
(I can feel their pain)
Bob
Clot,
Could it be an exclusive listing??? Maybe for 30-90 days before it would go into MLS??
BC Bob (255)-
Possibly. But in this market, exclusive listings are rare. They don’t generate enough of a buyer pool and disadvantage the seller in a number of ways. Exclusives suppress a competitive bidding environment, and that’s not something any seller wants a part of these days.
Young buyers use your noodle. Do NOT rely on the crabby bunch to help you make a prudent decision about your future. The crabby bunch will help themselves into your pockets.
Break the Ponzi chain. they have used and abused you to further the ponzi scheme.
Just use a little common sense and basic math.
Rachel Says:
Does anyone have a realtor they would recommend in the Morristown/Basking Ridge/Bernardsville area that is comfortable with lowball offers?
Rachel Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
by lowball, I mean presenting lowball offers for the buyer. Sorry if I wasn’t clear.
Rach: I won’t vouch for this guy and his son [both Charlie] as willing to present lowballs. HOWEVER, if you are mature and serious, these guys are solid and good hearted people with a lot of experience. If you intend to lowball, then you should be prepared to stand behind that lowball with a checkbook in hand, and a pen ready to sign contracts.
CHARLES PATRICK REAL ESTATE
764 Speedwell Ave Ste 4
Morris Plains NJ 07950
973 – 267 – 8808
Clot/KL/other RE agents or soon to be:
Scenario;
If you were the listing agent, not representing the buyer, and there were two bids; By the way, why does everybody in RE call a bid an offer?? The seller is offering the buyer is bidding.
1)500k with all types of contingencies.
2)450k, zero contingencies, fill or kill deal, will work with the seller, maybe construct a short term, 2 months, use and occupancy, to enable them adequate time for their move/purchase.
The seller, must sell. There has been close to zero activity on their house and they are ready to pull the trigger. They are relocating and don’t want to be a long distance landlord, they have also owned for years, have substantial equity.
What would be your advice to the seller???
note: these guys are my wife’s uncle and cousin
att Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
Fellow bloggers.
What would be a good area to rent in NJ? I am looking for a 2+ bedrooms apt/townhome for rent.
Any info is welcome.
att: I see Bayonne in your future
You can take the Light Rail [or drive] to the PATH.
Check this out…..
http://www.njtransit.com/pdf/hblr_06.pdf
“Possibly. But in this market, exclusive listings are rare”
Clot,
You would not believe how many I see in my area. I don’t think the seller realizes what they are signing??
light rail to Newport and swith to PATH
much better map
http://www.mylightrail.com/index.php?option=com_hblr&task=stations&Itemid=90&Itemid=90
schedule claims 26 minutes from 22nd Street in Bayonne to Newport, 30 minutes to Hoboken
Al Says:
January 12th, 2007 at 11:52 pm
owever, if you are interested in other areas encompassed within the modern investment bank such as quantitative asset management, risk management, derivatives pricing and trading, fixed income analytics and other areas where a quantitative background in the theoretical and practical aspects of modern finance is essential
I think I’d love to learn this stuff… Unfortunatelly I am dead serious…
(Al is super-Dork:)
AL: I submit to you………THE MAN
http://www.princeton.edu/~yacine/
BC Bob (259)-
Assuming that the house has been on the market long enough to gauge the real potential buyer interest, I’d beat the seller over the head to take scenario #2.
This is not the time to try and be a hero.
Clot, #268
This industry is screaming for agents more like you.
Is that the right term in RE, fill or kill, I used for lack of a better term??? i.e., answer in 24 hours.
BC Bob-
Agents like me are screaming for a more public-friendly industry.
“Fill-or-kill” works. We refer to offers such as these as “kill-dated”.
Clot,
Thanks for the response.
What is with all this “WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!” ?
I don’t see anyone crying on these blogs.
Only one crying is the sellers, whom can’t come to grasps that they are not getting what they want for their POS and I see would be sellers saying, thank god I didn’t buy in this false run up pf prices.
SAS
“What is with all this “WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!” ?”
SAS,
Welcome back!! Just some foolhardy nonsense, possibly awaiting some miraculous intervention.
btw- just got back from the movies with my better half.
We saw that movie “Pursuit of Happiness”
What a god damn waste of time and money. This guy whom the movie is based about is a freaking moron, and he ain’t that rich neither (once you take away his debt and liabilities).
Will Smith is a panty ass too.
ok, back to RE.
SAS
Clot,
I like that “fill or kill” just like the markets. Who is bargaining from a position of strength??? Not a question, just a statement.
anyone on these blogs trading currency?
Canidian dollar vs. the Euro.
hard to tell. But, I have always been a fan of Canidian dollar because in a worse case scenario, and can make Canada in a day by car.
What say you traders?
SAS
listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 11:49 am
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
Better lower your prices fast or else your home equity (if u have any now) will just go POOOOOOOFFF Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 12:27 pm
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA (SICK moaning 1/2 yell)
never in the same place at the same time
“I agree RE is a great investment. But as we all know, market timing is everything.”
SAS,
hear…hear….
I know one of the best minds regarding the markets. However, he can’t trade them for s*it. He is now a highly regarded analyst. You paid attention to where he placed his stops, usually a great indicator to buy/sell. He was always right, just off on his timing. He admitted, although perfectly normal, his timing was off by 8 hours. He always went to bed hungry and woke up h*rny.
I had to disguise h*rny. I tried once before, splelled out completely, and it got trapped in the filter.
SAS,
Why CD/Euro cross??? Why not CD/dollar or Euro/dollar cross. The BOE is serving volleys, possibly more rate hikes to come with the suprise one this week. Why not just the dollar index versus the basket of currencies.
By the way,although I’m bearish the US dollar, I smell a rally. I feel the fed is more focused on inflation rather than growth. If there is any suprise, it is to the upside. On the other hand, we are gearintg up for the 08 election. The pluge protection team is at the controls.
BC Bob,
I guess I misspoke.
I think its getting to a tough call between the CD/dollar or Euro/dollar cross…
both seem very attractive.
yes, I smell the plunge protection team as well.
SAS
“Strahan ordered to pay ex-wife $15 million”
http://www.nfl.com/teams/story/NYG/9928186
Yikes this guy got hosed.
Some of you deadbeat dads out there better take note.
SAS
Did I lose my post?
Oh well
Here we go again
Jim
If I go to otteau It will be 3/14 at the meadowlands/secaucus event. I will let you know if I am going.
BC Bob
Without know the ” all kinds of contingincies” I would probaly say # 2 is a better choice. But I dont advise ( it may be my downfall) I present both and try from my experience to explain possible pros and cons of both – and then I ask them to decide and then work with whatever decision they make.
KL
Something just crossed my mind…with the BOE raising rates, that doesn’t bode well for the zillions of US ARMs that are indexed to the LIBOR (London Interbank Overnight Rate). Those will be murder on the resets as England keeps tightening.
Plunge protection team working overtime. Everything will be Pine-Sol fresh going into ’08. However, if the Iraq “surge” goes badly, I don’t think anything can save McCain & the Republifascists.
In a complete turn from where I was 2 months ago, I’m now short all metals (including gold), materials, HBs, US-based multinationals; naked long biotech and tech in general. I smell a good, old-fashioned NASDAQ rally coming on.
All disclaimers apply.
GOOG surging on no news; shorts getting crushed.
“short all metals (including gold)”
yikes… I hope not too short ;)
SAS
WAAAAAAHHA!!!
I can’t sell my home!
WAAAAAAHHA!!!
I haven’t lifted a paint brush in 20 years!
WAAAAAAHHA!!!
My POS won’t sell!
WAAAAAAHHA!!!
Where are the suckers!
WAAAAAAHHA!!!
I want to be rich, too!
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHAAA!!!!!
Clot,
Bingo, on libor.
The S&P’s and nasdaq are surging. Along with this, the world is slowly diversifying into gold. At this point, every central bank/hedge fund puking is met with great physical demand for the yellow metal. IMO,this bull is not closing to topping. Wait until this market really gets into a frenzy, akin to the frenzied RE market. Be careful fighting the trend. You may want to date that gold short, not marry. The key level is 570-580, if we get there.
****Again, all disclaimers apply.
I’m editing my list of nowhere jobs for 2007.
I must take subprime lenders off the “No” list. They may be redeemable. Even if it’s profit motivated self-preservation, there’s a flicker of economic compassion in there somewhere mixed with the uncompromising greed.
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/consumer_news/16450418.htm?source=rss&channel=kansascity_consumer_news
Hopefully, some others will step up to the plate. These programs should get a factor in their ratings.
I did not have the time to answer Grim’s question regarding 2007. Let’s get this in before kickoff.
06- 106% financing
07- Down payment
06- Negative amortization
07- Positive cash flow
06- Liquidity
07- Too much liquidity chasing too few opportunities??
06- Gold
07- Gold
06- Flip that house
07- Foreclosure.com
06- Drinks w/mortgage broker
07- Hangover w/credit counselor,sheriff
06- Flippers
07- Investors
06- Tap that keg
07- Keg is almost dry
06- Equity Extraction
07- Savings
06- Migration out of NJ
07- Exodus out of NJ???
06- Soft landing
07- Stabilization/at or near the bottom
06- Employed as subprime broker
07- Selling IPO’s of emerging markets to seniors
06- McMansions
07- Converted into 3 Family or condos.
06- Wall Street will save 2007
07- Wall Street will save 2008
06- Multi-National’s
07- Multi-National’s, China will be buzzing, gearing up for its showcase at the 08 Olympics. Beans in the teens??
06- Spanish as second language
07- Mandarin/Cantonese
06- Free trade
07- Protectionism
06- .35 GSP toll
07- $1.50 GSP toll, payable in yuan.
06- Contracts signed with good faith deposit
07- Closed sales
06- Teaser Rates
07- Truth in Lending
06- Never, ever, usually
07- Same
06- Opec/crude
07- Russia, Gazprom, natural gas
06- NJ politics; sleaze,corruption,cronyism,peddling, dual offices,pension abuse,pay to play,unions
07- Some things never change
06- It ain’t over till the fat lady sings
07- Rumor has it she’s warming up for an appearance in 2008.
06- Location,Location,Location
07- Price,Price,price
06- Bidding wars [more a 2005 item]
07- Offering wars
06- Multiple Properties
07- Lis Pendens
06- Chi, college funding, 529’s
07- Chi discovers that Hunter is a southpaw, forget the 529’s. Hunter is bombarded with Sandy Koufax tapes, how to throw a curveball.
06- Our moderator runs the #1 RE regional blog[ok, I’m biased]
07- The NJ RE Report blog is officially voted the # 1 regional blog. At the same time, our moderator shakes up the industry, becoming a buyer’s only broker. He becomes a clone of Scott Boras. His powerpoint presentations bewilders sellers. The listing agent shrugs their shoulders. Grim can not keep up with the demand for his services.
See post #187.
Buyer paid $1,300,000 in June 2005, sold 12 months later in June 2006 for $999,000.
The non-wannabe lost:
$301,000 + $78,000 (realtors) = $379,000 LOSS.
In only 12 months.
I hear from an insider that the seller said “WAAAAAAAAAAH!!!” as he left the closing table.
Now is a great time to be a Bagholder!
HI all,
Today I looked at some houses in Middlesex Co.
realtor showed us couple fixer-uppers…..
Ther were scary. Our realtor did not even try to even hind on us buying. He was quite amazed att what theey have looked like inside…..
afetr that we drove around with him. There are more listings active now than there were last octobver. Every block have a house for sale.
It seems like middle=level and upper level housing is cheaper. Starters – asking priced are priced about 5-10% ABOVE what they were last fall, but as you enter the door owner tell you price iv negotiable and we also got few seller is vry flexible in price. However after i suggestedthem to drop listed price by 100K on 385K house (3 bedroom’s with one of the bedrooms in the basement) – i was looked at as I am insane. they said they would consider dropping the price by 30K. After I asked “wasn’t the house listed at 350K last fall” – they have said that they did some major improvements since (strange I remember their listing from before – it wassame – all new appliances, freshly remodeled and so on).
By the way – we visited 4 open houses and I gotta tell you that I am pretty mad – no brownies or coockies in any of them
Bob #289, fantastic stuff.
06- Flip that house
07- Foreclosure.com
LOL
Clotpoll Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 11:23 am
BC Bob (233)-
Hate to say it, but our friend Al invited that shot by going into WAAAAHHH mode earlier in the day. Those earlier posts sounded like he’d cued up the Depeche Mode and gobbled a couple of tranquilizers.
When he finally came clean about his situation, I couldn’t understand why he’d even think about buying a house. Nice rental, nice job, free MBA on the company dime, no kids, footloose…does this sound like anyone who should EVER buy a home here?
OK since it seems to bother everybody here:
I am looking for a house because of peer pressure:
My wife is 5 month pregnant.
All relatves and wife insist that house is more appropriate for young family with new born baby.
I did gave up into the pressure – today I took my wife to look at some houses we agreed in our price range, and now she is a lot more content with the idea of living in the apartments for a while….
Those houses scared her too.
to lisoosh #247,
Good to hear that Franklin Twp schools are faring better now. I understand sites like greatschools.org do not have the latest information.
So, how does one go about checking the merit of a school? knock on the principal’s office for test results? latest blue-ribbon stats?
I need to make a decision if I want to move out of Franklin twp because of the elementary school system.
I have one kid just started pre-school in Franklin and lots of friends in North Brunswick and South Brunswick.
North B. sucks – realtors keep jabbering on about “blue ribbon” but who knows when that was awarded, the district was just downgraded and the head was happy because it means they can get assistance with all of their problems.
South B. is good – and people pay for it. Funny thing is, the friends with kids in those schools don’t seem to be getting any different or better an education than those with kids in Franklin. Graduation rates are the same and the same # of kids going to good colleges.
My kid is in Franklin Park School – so far I have been very pleasantly surprised and impressed. Her teacher is great and they run lots of programs on the weekend – sports and things. We are the only town in the area which has guarantees preschool – a great saver. The school is huge but they separate out the bigger and younger kids per floor.
Franklin also has a magnet system with specialized elementary schools for kids who excell in the arts or science.
The older kids have now been broken up – Sampson is for grades 5 and 6, the old high school is now the junior high and the new high school on Elizabeth has the rest. I also know of people who pulled their kids out of high school and put them into private schools and ended up putting them back into their old school – I think the reputation had people scared that it was worse here than it ever really was, plus the S. Bruns crowd always wants to convince themselves that it was worth paying another 150k for a house on the other side of route 27.
There are drugs, but then again there are in S. Bruns., East Bruns. Princeton and all the other school districts, Franklin just has a group of poorer kids that seem to do a better job getting caught.
You can definitely go and visit some of the schools. The Star Ledger also issues a “report card” every year.
Al Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
OK since it seems to bother everybody here:
I am looking for a house because of peer pressure:
My wife is 5 month pregnant.
All relatves and wife insist that house is more appropriate for young family with new born baby.
Those houses scared her too.
Al [can I call you Al?]:
#1 if I haven’t said it – congrats
#2 I am with a 3M old in an apartment – no big deal
In fact I grew up in a 2BR with an older brother. Since when in this McMansion-fied bloated country was it every kid’s God given right to have their own room?
Bost: righteous
Also, Hunter already found his right thumb, so I’m sticking with the 529…….we still haven’t hit the “reaching for the pee-pee” test. It will just confirm it officially.
Clotpoll Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Something just crossed my mind…with the BOE raising rates, that doesn’t bode well for the zillions of US ARMs that are indexed to the LIBOR (London Interbank Overnight Rate). Those will be murder on the resets as England keeps tightening.
Clot-zoi: Although it may seem counterintuitive, LIBOR is not directly driven by BOE rates. Obviously everything is inter-realted, but you won’t find LIBOR or the rates on Euro-Dollar deposits to be drifting substantially from the UST swap spread cuve. Don’t get hung up on the “L” in LIBOR. It is just geography, not the market dynamics.
I speak from experience in pricing commercial paper for AT&T.
What does ‘bost’ mean?
grim: can you post the investment disclaimer for this thread?
OK that said…..if you read the China banks article I posted on a couple of occasions, I am on board with you guys from this perspective……China is going to blow up, but it ain’t happening in 2007. As such, I think we are in a good position for global stocks.
Caveat on the NASDAQ……..COMDEX was going on this past week, so all the techno geeks and the money managers who love them are sporting a woody…..you also have hot products, further supporting woodrow and friends……much on the rally could be front-running COMDEX and hype.
That said…..nice rally….I’ll take 3%+ for 8 days work any year….
What does ‘bost’ mean?
Begging out of stratospheric trauma.
syncmaster Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
What does ‘bost’ mean?
Boston College Bob
thanks lisoosh!
Is this thread going to be the record?
Have we ever clipped 400?
Clotpoll Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 3:33 pm
GOOG surging on no news; shorts getting crushed.
Don’t look at a stock in a vacuum….look at it relative to the broad market of peers
E.g., Google could move on Yahoo news; Google can move on eBay purchasing StubHub etc… I know you know this, I’m just making a broad statement
Al,
I asked last night and I ask again, are you for real?
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
OK – providing prima facie evidence that I do indeed take a daily shower and have inter-personal skills, I was unaware that the annual geekfest a.k.a. COMDEX, has not be held since 2003. What happened last week was Macworld…..an equally lurid display of the bespeckled, Snapple drinking, Cheeze-Doodle munching, paunchy Gods of technology.
Any humor?? I blew a great under bet with a Raven bet[giving points]. I was being a pig!! Pigs get……..
Chi,
Don’t underestimate libor;
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/ratewatch/other-indices.asp
More on libor;
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/libor/day-ussnon
Disclaimer: The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances does this information constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities, assets, or otherwise.
JB,
Amen….
“What does ‘bost’ mean?”
sync,
All kidding aside… When I first started posting there was major confusion, among the realists, regarding which Bob?? BOOOOOYAAAA or just Bob??? Now the question has flipped to BOOOYAAA/Listen. For differential purposes, I just changed my logon to BC. Chi has the ticket..
“All relatves and wife insist that house is more appropriate for young family with new born baby.”
Al,Al???
Maybe Clot was right with his assessment??
The relatives and outlaws??? Put on your jock strap and step up to the plate. You hold the cards. How will you play your hand?? Take all the info on this site[3rd party articles] and present a powerpoint presentation to the nagging parties. This will be so omnipotent, you may induce early labor. Again, are your relatives/outlaws paying your bills??? How about a retort, I think it is more prudent to utilize some of our DP for college funding for our child/your grandchildren rather than buying the the biggest mistake by the lake, I mean shore.
Al, it’s time to step up and tell all you love them but f*ck off. On the other hand, if they are greasing you, what the hell??? Have you/are you set to buy/bought and just trying to justify your blunder???
Anyone have input on Milltown in Middlesex County? How about the schools? I know students there go to Spotswood High, which doesn’t appear to be very good, but what about the elementary and middle schools?
Thanks for any comments!
Al,
I got my condo in 2003, I wasn’t married at the time. When I did get married my mom told me to sell the condo and buy a SFH because it will look bad in her social circles if I’m a married man in a condo. Needless to say, I didn’t listen to her.
New to NJ
When I lived in Sayreville, Milltown schools were “DA Bomb” they were ahead of alot of schools they were techie before the bigger towns around them, and the town itself was very small town quaint and a tad bit annoying because of it. Sayreville schools however were horribly overcrowded, and still are. My son’s kindergarten had 30 students.We moved back to my hometown the summer he was to start 1st grade he had 16 students in 1st and no more than 18 up to 6th 15-18 in each of his junior high classes also. I don’t know how that effects education but there is something to be said about the principal knowing each child and who they belong to.
KL
WAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! LOL!! You trolls are clueless. You come on this blog and call people wannabes because they don’t want to pay 500K for your piece of shit? Just because some of you got in over your head and have to bring money to the closing doesn’t mean it’s someone elses fault.
You had dollar signs in your eyes; your the one that listened to your fat, cigarette smelling, family member. Belly up, take it like a man instead of a coward. You felt like a big time when you were sure that you were gonna make money, so stand up and recognize your failure.
Look in the mirror and say it: I failed. It’s not the end of the world, you’ll bounce back, but you’ll have to work for it, and realize that making money in real estate is for the big boys.
Now there, don’t you feel better Mr Trump wannabe? Go ahead, let it out. WAAAAAAAA!!!! How’s that feel.
Now, as for the people who want to buy a house to live in, realize this: they don’t randomly troll blogs and lash out and post “WAAAA” to stir up emotions. That’s what pretenders and loses do. Winners score, losers don’t. They work hard, and save, and invest, and read, and study, and plan and get degrees, not attend weekend seminars that give you a realtor deputy badge. No, they achieve real hardcore shit.
The majority of the people here will wait…. and watch…. and when this mania corrects, they will strike because they bucked the trend, played a contrarian role and scored. As for the pretenders, they will lose, again and again, as they always do and will fall back on the only thing they know how to do. waaa…
chicagofinance is right about the LIBORs.
Dollar and sterling LIBOR rates generally don’t move in lock step with one another.
LIBORs are simply fixings (averages on interbank rates submitted by various banks published at 11am London time hence the name).
Dollar LIBOR usually moves in line with the Fed Funds target rate while Sterling LIBOR is more positively correlated to the BOE rate. They are also dependent on how much short term demand and supply of money there is in the market.
From posting #38…
Does anyone know the address on this Summit listing?
http://www.loisschneiderrealtor.com/571468
KL,
Thanks for the input on Milltown! Any thoughts on East Brunswick?
Also, can anyone get me an address on these MLS listings? Since I am new to the area I would like to drive by these properties and see what the neighborhoods are like:
703869
705598
Any help would be appreciated.
OPEC has this country by our private parts:
“Venezuela and Iran support OPEC cuts: Chavez”
http://tinyurl.com/yye55q
SAS
“http://www.loisschneiderrealtor.com/571468”
Is this house on the hill?
I am sure its a nice house, but at that price, this seller is smoking crack and should pull their head out of their anus.
SAS
# listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Al,
I asked last night and I ask again, are you for real?
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
Would SSN#, address or scanned driver’s licence will suffice??? Go take a hike.
Are you yourself for real? Can you come up with anything worth talking about??
what did you say about yourself so far??
I am done ever acknowledging you.
e relatives and outlaws??? Put on your jock strap and step up to the plate. You hold the cards. How will you play your hand?? Take all the info on this site[3rd party articles] and present a powerpoint presentation to the nagging parties. This will be so omnipotent, you may induce early labor. Again, are your relatives/outlaws paying your bills???
Al, it’s time to step up and tell all you love them but f*ck off. On the other hand, if they are greasing you, what the hell???
Come One realtives are relatives… for people outside of NJ my salary sems like aa lot, and they just can not believe that we can not buy anything…. (some people I talked to during cristmas rent 3 bedroom house for 429$/month, do not ask me where is it – there are so few people in that town taat by just posting a towm name you will know who I am talkign about. and no it is not in NJ) . So for them it is mind boggling that we can not buy a house.
And life is more than just money.
And some realtives are ready to give(not a loan, a gift) us some money to buy a house.
But I just can not take it – i feel that taking it will be abusing their kindness, because buy buying a huse we would just waste it…. They did not get their money buy flipping their houses in 2 years – they had to work 30+++ years for them…
I am just very non risk-taking person. More importantly, I can not bear, to have my child in one of those Starter homes.
As far As: Have you/are you set to buy/bought and just trying to justify your blunder???
I would like to buy – but i just can not even consider buying, what i can afford right now. There is like an infinite void between costs of renting and buying.
Buying will mean no savings, no 529K, no emergency fund, no spending money. Thats unless I buy with NEG ARM…. So no, I did not buy or set to buy. there will be no proof here either. Take it or leave it.
Going and actually seening those cheapest houses was an eye opening experience. One can not imagine the filth and decay of 330K house we saw today. Of course the seller was very flexible in price and was ready to go down to 300K… in town with 73K for year 2005 average household income.
For some reason, I am very worried about life I am going to provide for my kid. I might not care about myself or my wife – we are adults and responsible for life we have.
But for the next 18 years I will be responsible for the life of another humaan being who won;t even be able to comprehend a rubber BALL for almost a year. That makes me very happy, but also concerned about politics, our life, and our future.
ChiFi-
Copy that on GOOG; however, when it trades off EBay or Yahoo news, it’s always a bogus move…especially when it trades down. It’s hard to believe that trained investment professionals cannot see that GOOG is a flesh-eating monster, and Ebay & Yahoo are ghosts of what they used to be.
GOOG buys the biggest visual image pipeline opportunity ever; Ebay buys a ticket scalper and Yahoo stares at its navel.
Usual disclaimers.
Al,
You sound like a good guy. I wish you luck.
“Global Markets Face `Severe Correction,’ Faber Says”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afYGFBA.L8PQ&refer=home
SAS
Toll roads lead uphill
[…]
Senate President Richard J. Codey said Corzine needs to make a convincing case should he lease out toll roads such as the New Jersey Turnpike, Garden State Parkway and Atlantic City Expressway. Critics fear tolls would increase and maintenance of the roads go ignored if the state does not keep a tight rein on the roads.
[…]
A recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University found 54 percent of residents think a Turnpike lease would be a bad idea, with opposition coming from Democrats, Republicans and independents alike.
[…]
“The challenge is the risk that we receive too low a price for the assets, we set terms and conditions that do not sufficiently protect the state’s or the public’s interest or, worst of all, our reinvestment choices squander the proceeds,” Corzine said.
He said he won’t proceed unless he’s confident those things won’t happen…
Al –
Adjusting to being a parent is pretty overwhelming, but once they are here it is hard to remember what it was like without them.
I second Chicago, we had a baby in an apartment and it is no big deal, just don’t go crazy buying lots of stuff – bulky high chairs and play yards, they take up lots of space and you find you never use them anyway. Now renting townhouse and the kids couldn’t care less, in fact, we are some of the few people we know where the kids can go out to play with the neighbours – can’t do that with a McMansion.
I second your frustration, we moved to the area in 1998 from abroad, and just when we were ready to look at buying, the prices went out of control. On the good side we are pretty frugal, so did the whole one income/stay home mom thing and still have plenty in the bank to work with, in fact we are more liquid than most people I know.
New-to-NJ –
Milltown is good if you are Italian and Catholic.
East Brunswick has good (but snobby) schools and is nice but pretty congested and very pricey.
I want to buy in Chelsa Manhatan. Will I be able to buy 3 milllion dollar home for 560,000?
Take 80% off 2005 prices.
Now thats Low Ballin
listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners Says:
January 13th, 2007 at 11:47 am
BC,
Out of 1.2M NJ homeowners – or whatever the number, you exclusively managed to sell at what crybabies call the market peak.
No, I’m the other one that did – bought in 1997, then sold in July 2005 for double my purchase price. It didn’t take a crystal ball, just a little common sense and an acknowledgment of market realities.
The run up in prices was ridiculous, it was so obvious that there was no way it could be sustained. And it’s obvious now that it’s begun the inevitable post-bubble price descent back to mean. Classic market bubble.
Excellent opportunities will present themselves to those who have the patience and fortitude to resist the hype, and the cultural/psychological need to “own” now. Resist the immediate gratification impulse and you will be well rewarded.
Cool site:
http://mortgageimplode.com/
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
Tracking the housing finance breakdown—a saga of corruption, stupidity, and government complicity.
Latest count of US Mortgage lenders that have croaked since about Dec 2006: 10
Wanted to note one observation on GSMLS.
It seemed some Realtors are increasing the price one week and reducing by same amount next week.
Could this be a trick to force listing back into Buyer’s emails ????
So are prices dropping?
MLS# 2309742 – Mountain Lakes, NJ
Original List Price: $2,175,000
Current Asking: $1,899,900
DOM: 153
Purchased: 6/8/2004 – $2,000,000
jb
Here is a relo listed for less than the last sales price:
MLS# 2327638 – Mountain Lakes, NJ
Original List Price: $819,000
Current Asking: $779,000
DOM: 100
Purchased 8/2006 – $810,000
Same Boat Here
I’m so glad that I followed my own advise, and ignored all the ranting BS about buying an overpriced shxtbox “because in never goes down” nonsense from Co-workers and in-laws. I found it very convenient for all these EXPERT homeowners to spew out cheap advice. (Why not, they only paid half a few years prior) funny how nobody’s salary doubled.
It seems like selling a house became a deceitful game to screw the last buyer.
Last one buying is a rotten egg! HAHA!
I have two children now and we are renting 2-bedroom and in no rush to buy.
NO DEPT
Very Healthy Savings
I got the last laugh!
Is this thread going to be the record?
Have we ever clipped 400?
I know that we’ve gotten close to 400, but I’m not sure that we’ve broken it. I’m sure we’ll be able to push past 400 by tonite.
jb
it’s understandable why the buy a house at all costs mantra has such a hard time dying.
for many baby boomers, buying a house was the smartest thing they ever did, at least on paper.
but as SAS says, it doesn’t count until you cash the check.
At the end of the day, there quite simply aren’t enough young people to absorb all of the houses that will be coming on the market as the boomers retire.
Oldest boomers start retiring in 2008.
Have you checked out the boomers finances? I’d be bold enough to say a number of boomers will retire once they receive an inheritance from the prior generation. They couldn’t live on anything less…….even worse, some of them have already pre-spent the money….
James, I remember hitting 100 on a Sunday night just a few short months ago.
You can’t stop the truth.
[DISCLAIMER – this from http://www.ftc.gov/ftc/consumer.htm:
FTC works to eliminate unfair or deceptive marketplace practices]
The so called ‘news’papers are beginning to see the light:
” With open houses as quiet as DEATH lately in many parts of the country, sellers’ agents are trying everything they can to make a sale, including sometimes tweaking [relisting] the computerized data that potential buyers depend on. Fresh listings attract attention and can fetch higher prices because buyers are less likely to make lowball offers.”
Mmm, potential buyers dependig on ‘doctored’ data…
Earth to FTC: Is anybody there?
#342 chicagofinance Says:
“Have you checked out the boomers finances? I’d be bold enough to say a number of boomers will retire once they receive an inheritance from the prior generation. They couldn’t live on anything less…….even worse, some of them have already pre-spent the money….”
======================================
“G*ddammit chi-fi, you stole my punchline!
I’ve been trying to explain this to people all year!!!
Bastard!
First-time-buyer-NOT-BUYING Says:
January 14th, 2007 at 8:21 am
Same Boat Here
I’m so glad that I followed my own advise, and ignored all the ranting BS about buying an overpriced shxtbox “because in never goes down” nonsense from Co-workers and in-laws. I found it very convenient for all these EXPERT homeowners to spew out cheap advice. (Why not, they only paid half a few years prior) funny how nobody’s salary doubled.
It seems like selling a house became a deceitful game to screw the last buyer.
Last one buying is a rotten egg! HAHA!
I have two children now and we are renting 2-bedroom and in no rush to buy.
NO DEPT
Very Healthy Savings
I got the last laugh!
====================================
GOOD JOB!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Good morning Crabby Bunch….
hehehhehehehehehehehe
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA (sick moaning 1/2 yell)
(Can u feel the pain?)
Bob – Happy and content owning a house(s) eventhough prices are sinking.
First-time-buyer-NOT-BUYING Says:
January 14th, 2007 at 8:21 am
Same Boat Here
I’m so glad that I followed my own advise, and ignored all the ranting BS about buying an overpriced shxtbox “because in never goes down” nonsense from Co-workers and in-laws. I found it very convenient for all these EXPERT homeowners to spew out cheap advice. (Why not, they only paid half a few years prior) funny how nobody’s salary doubled.
It seems like selling a house became a deceitful game to screw the last buyer.
Last one buying is a rotten egg! HAHA!
I have two children now and we are renting 2-bedroom and in no rush to buy.
NO DEPT
Very Healthy Savings
I got the last laugh!
===================================
sorry to repeat it BUT……..
THIS IS ONE DAMN GREAT POST. YOU FIRST TIME SUCKERS, i MEAN BUYERS SHOULD COPY PASTE IT.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
ClotPoll: Trying to value a primary residence by the income method is as insane as using the comparables (”comps”) method for a strip mall.
Unless, of course, you’re going to rent your home out to a family of four while you’re still in it.
Last time I checked there are 3 valuation methods. Income, Market and a Cost Approaches to value..There are three for a reason..They are utilized to check each other.
Believe it or not…every lending institution in our country likes to see comparable sales for a retail strip center. If applied properly all three concluded values, from the three seperate methods should come close to each other.
Furthermore, in terms of residential valuation…Tell the folks that cant meet their debt service on multifamily homes that the income approach is not applicable. Unfortunatly I know many people who purchased multi-family homes based only on appreciation. Now they are struggling. It is this simple..if the numbers dont make sense..its a bad deal. For most investment homes the numbers made sense around 2002.
One more thing…the fact that I see your name “clotpoll” on this blog as much as I do…simply tells me the housing market sucks. You have way too much time to discuss the health of the housing market.
“It seems like selling a house became a deceitful game to screw the last buyer.
Last one buying is a rotten egg! HAHA!”
first time young buyers were TRASHED on…..all the cheerleaders who benefitted from spiraling home values kept up the get priced out GARBAGE rhetoric in order maintain the PONZI CHAIN. RE is basically a ponzi that filters up to the lower top. Once the bottom of the chain is broken a plague engulfs the upper chain.
Of course the top of the food chain is not impacted but the majority in the middle are.
BREAK THE PONZI CHAIN AT THE BOTTOM AND JUST SAY NO MASS TO BLOATED MTG PAYMENTS AND HOUSE COST.
Commercial RE Consultant Says:
January 14th, 2007 at 10:05 am
Nice post.
Please post more.Help some people.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Clotpoll…As long as the salaries suck and taxes continue to rise…New Jersey’s housing market will continue to fall (adjusted for inflation). The best thing you can do is convice the sellers in NJ to lower their asking prices. Trust me…I donot want to see the activity in the Housing Market in NJ to collapse. This could lead to much worse things.
Casual observations-
Many houses in my area were for sale or rent, they didn’t rent out and are being relisted at lower prices.
Keywords by this fellow blogger:
“Unfortunatly I know many people who purchased multi-family homes based only on appreciation. Now they are struggling. It is this simple”
Yup, you just summed up the past 3-4 years in RE.
If houses don’t appreciate at the velocity as they did. ALOT of people are going to be screwed.
And if the economic front slows down and they lose their jobs, cut back hours, no more overtime, or if they have an unforseen health problem…..They might as well kiss their own ass goodbye.
This is truth in your ears!!
SAS
What’s going to happen to NJ shore properties when buyers start realizing that they’ll be under water in a few decades due to global warming? Are people still in denial or do they not worried about what they’re leaving to their kids? Just wondering.
Fellow bloggers.
I finally finalized an apt. for rent yesterday staten island itself.
Interestingly I found it with the help of a real estate agent (an old lady probably in early sixties). I’m amazed at the difference in the quality of agents since this was my second agent. The first one was really a “realwho*e”, who was showing me an apt in bad neighborhood (just 3 blocks away from public housing) and wanted me to believe that the area was safe. Also the realwho*e agent tried to pursuade me more than once that with my credit score of almost 800, she could buy me a house with “no money down” :). Finally when I said no to the apt that she was showing me, she was so pissed visibly and verbally that she bluntly and abruptly told me that “our appointment is over”.
Compare that to the old lady realtor that helped me yesterday. Never too pushy. She spent 4 hours with me, showed me 3 apartments and then let me decide if we want any of them or not. Moreover she had done the research on my requirements and showed me only the apartments away from public housing. I got an apartment in almost a hotel like ambience (granite everywhere) with a rent of $1350. Me and my wife are happy bird.
Moreover I suggested to this realtor that since my co. is paying for her real estate agent fee upto 15% of rent, why not increase her fee that she’s gonna charge me, and we could split the profit half-half. (I know it’s not kosher, but i dont give a damn). She agreed.
She’s going to get $1600 from this, I’m going to get $300 – all paid by my company.
The difference in the attitudes of the 2 realtors above really is making me think why the realwho*e realtor was so pushy? I mean what did he gain? She lost 3 hrs of her/my time, our meeting ended in bad taste, she didnt get any fee, I will never recommend her. Whereas the nice realtor yesterday, I’d recommend to anyone anyday.
I’m really wondering how the realwho*e realtor is staying in business or making any money? Any guesses?
I have been doing alot of readings from Edward Bernays. I think the NAR and the real estate cartel have been doing their research into this guys as well. More specifically, his 2 books “Propaganda” and “Public Relations”.
If you review this guys works… its kind of amazing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays
If you don’t think you are a puppet on a string…wow.. you might as well buy that $700,000 crap box.
SAS
Also i chatted with the old lady realtor on the state of RE market.
She told me that there are 2 listings that she’s managing right now on behalf of her boss. One she said bought by someone 2 years ago for 1 million and trying to sell at $1.2M (100k of upgrades were done). Second one she said was a house around 700K. She said they are just sitting there with no interest.
I asked her why doesnt she force the sellers to reduce prices, she told me that they’ve already done a round 1 of price reductions, without any success. She told me that the business is so slow that’s why she’s started showing the rental apt. again to people, since the home selling side business is not working. BTW this realtor works for one of the most reputed local RE co. of staten island, who get more business by word of mouth and recommendations than advertisements.
Well these were words of a honest realtor, that things are not selling and prices need to come down further. Things cant get any clearer on rent vs buy decision.
Gary says:
“The majority of the people here will wait…. and watch… and when this mania corrects, they will strike because they bucked the trend, played a contrarian role and scored.”
Al says:
“I am just very non risk-taking person. More importantly, I can not bear, to have my child in one of those Starter homes.”
Yes, Gary, the majority here will wait and wait and wait and wait and …. Many are excessively risk adverse, so they will never buy, because they are unable to call the RE market bottom. (Maybe BC Bob and Jay can help in that regard, I will certainly be inquiring).
It’s the classic case of “I can’t have it so I will detract from those who do.” These folks believe that if they shout “THE SKY IS FALLING” long enough, the sky will fall, enabling them to afford what they currently perceive as out of reach. Maybe the sky is falling, but that is not the point here.
Crybabywannabes might look into other issues first: sub 600 FICA scores, overwhelming credit card debt, other personal choices and FEAR, while watching the Superbowl on that new 60″ flat screen being paid over 60 months at 21% interest. IS THIS YOU?? Only you know the honest answer.
If the NJ housing market dropped 50%, how may crybabywannabes would be able to buy? I bet not many, because there are other personal choice issues at work here.
So meanwhile the crybabywannabes try to shout down the RE market on this blog and others. Some try to shout down the contrarian contributors to these blogs. They may well succeed in both endeavors, but most will remain crybabywannabes anyway.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Chifi #342, good observation, and I know more than a few who aren’t going to be having their mommies and daddies bail them out in their final act. Is social security going to cover their needs?
cynicalgirl,
I support the global warming theory, but I think your post #355 is a bit of a stretch.
I’d be more concern about the immediate RE bubble knocking on people doors and perhaps a major terror attack on NYC with in the next few years.
Another terror attack will bring down RE values faster than you can say “overpriced crap box”.
But yes, man made or not… I do believe global warming is a serious issue.
In any case, back to RE.
SAS
Question for Clotpoll, KL or any other realtor on this board.
How much does it cost to carry a listing which is not selling?
For e.g. a 500K SFH, which sits there for 5 months without selling, how much money does it cost the selling agent out of their pocket?
I posted on my blog a story from today’s Asbury Park Press that says Realtors are going back to their real jobs because the market has slowed down. (It’s the second post down.)
http://shorebubble.blogspot.com/
SAS,
I like your postings – refreshing common sense.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
rybabywannabes might look into other issues first: sub 600 FICA scores, overwhelming credit card debt, other personal choices and FEAR, while watching the Superbowl on that new 60″ flat screen being paid over 60 months at 21% interest. IS THIS YOU?? Only you know the honest answer.
You also forgot the 300$ jeans… poor starting seller/or realtor…
CommercialREconsultant (130)-
I’m able to spend lots of time here because, thankfully, I write very fast (the one useful thing I got out of prep school) and because I discovered early on that hanging out here sharpens my game. I have become a much better communicator and advocate in the past three months than I have in the preceding eight years (thanks, Grim). FYI, my office’s production has picked up since I started posting; this blog is a great source of news and ideas for my agents- and more important- my clients. IMO, Realtors ignoring the blogosphere do so now at their own peril.
I’m with you on the three methods of valuation and their usefulness in acting as a check and balance against the other ones. In commercial situations, such as the strip mall and multi-family home you mentioned, a second method is also utilized by appraisers to round out the picture.
However, I have yet to see any method other than the comparable method used for primary, single-family residences. There is no income-producing element to a SF home, so a method that attempts to determine value based on an income of 0 is, per se, invalid.
Thanks also for your suggestion that I spend most of my time convincing sellers to meet the market. I started that about a year ago. However, my argument is much more convincing now that I have facts at hand AND a reliable gauge of buyer sentiment (thanks to this blog).
SAS (142)-
How soon we forget what terrorist attacks do to RE. Within two months of 9/11, we were awash in a river of hot money and hundreds of thousands of buyers whose nesting instincts had kicked into adrenal-charged overdrive.
God forbid another attack, but would the aftermath of another attack be any different from the first?
SAS, I’m not sure another terror attack would affect prices that much. Probably depends on the magnitude of the attack and specifically what they do. What was the impact of 9/11 on NJ? Seems that many people fled from NY which might have aided the bubble here a bit.
BTW, Global warming is not a theory, it’s accepted by every scientist in the world that’s not paid by Exxon.
att, you said:
She’s going to get $1600 from this, I’m going to get $300 – all paid by my company.
Geez, don’t risk your job over $300.
OMG attack of the Gorebots! Everybody duck!
scribe (150)-
At the heart of greed is a kernel of stupidity.
“It didn’t take a crystal ball, just a little common sense and an acknowledgment of market realities.”
Jay,
I hear you. It’s not rocket science. However, no one has ever gone bankrupt underestimating the intelligence of the American public; of course this does not pertain to those on this site.
Little_Silvered,
Thanks for the link. On average, how are present prices, [closed sales for both sfh’s and condo’s] in relation to 2005 in Monmouth???
Clotpoll: However, I have yet to see any method other than the comparable method used for primary, single-family residences. There is no income-producing element to a SF home, so a method that attempts to determine value based on an income of 0 is, per se, invalid.
Unfortunately, most residential appraisers, do not know how to properly apply the income approach to a home. Maybe after this whole things plays out they will have to learn.
REITS donot buy Class A office product and Grocery Anchored shopping centers based on a Market Approach either, but it doesnt mean they dont want to see it.
How can you tell me there are no income producing elements to a single family home…Anything that can be rented can be considered income producing. A home can be rented and many of them are. Im not saying it is the best approach, but it still should be considered, especially under these market conditions.
Let me get this straight…a two or three family home is considered an income producing property by your industry standards…but a single family home cannot produce income? I dont have a problem with your comments…I have a problem with your industry’s check and balance system.
Clotpoll:
I am curious about something and apologize if you already mentioned it. When discussing price drops with sellers…at what percentage do you like to start at? I am a real estate junkie…I have watched listings reduce as low as $5,000 a clip on average homes…Are sellers really this unwilling? Do you convey to them the market has turned and they are at risk of receiving less the longer they wait.
CommercialRE (155)-
It’s not my industry’s check-and-balance system; it’s Fannie Mae’s. Residential apparaisers don’t apply the Income method to owner-occupied SF homes, because lenders will toss back the report as invalid. The actual income on that property will be 0, until and unless the owner moves out and rents it to another occupant. And, loans based on an assumption of owner-occupation are just that; if the lender gets the idea that the owner does not intend to occupy the home, the loan is denied.
A multi-family home that has the owner as occupant of one of its units represents a hybrid owner-occupant/income producing situation. In that instance, using both Income and Comparison methods is valid.
IMO, you seem to share the same intellectual ground as those here who want SF, owner-occupied RE to behave as a predictable and uniform commodity. Once you can predict even a theoretical income stream and reduce the whole proposition to a cap rate that either works (or doesn’t), you remove the emotional, “wild-card” element at the heart of the game. “Location, location, location” has long been the chant of RE; however, I’d submit that SF residential RE should have a second, equally-applicable mantra: “context,context, context”.
“God forbid another attack, but would the aftermath of another attack be any different from the first?”
Thats because the next terrorist attack will be alot worse than the first.
In my opinion.
SAS
Commercial RE (156)-
Nothing “hard and fast” in terms of percentage; it depends on how overshot the original list price was. I’d like to think I’m getting better at pricing things right the first time, so that the subsequent reduction doesn’t have to be so dramatic. However, there are plenty of houses out there still in need of drastic reduction. I can’t control those, though.
To me, the whole idea is getting to a price that gets people walking thru the door. It’s an easy calculation right now: no showings= no interest.
Clotpoll: I am not suggesting an income approach should be used in place of a market approach. I think they should both be utilized. For that matter all three methods could be utlilized.
This would at the very least illustrate the risk of the home “investment”. At the end of the day a home is a long term investment.
I think people holding off to buy a home would rather invest their money in a non-risky investment that appreciates over the short term, since the market appears to be depreciating. (Lets say you can earn 5.0% annually on $100,000) or lose 3% annually on a $400,000 home. Net difference is $17,000 in one year. ($5,000 plus $12,000).
You win on both sides this way.
Plus, the money you pay for rent is probably less than the taxes and interst you pay.
This is why, for most people sitting on cash, it is better to rent at this point.
It’s not a matter of being a cry baby, it’s not a matter of waiting for the sky to fall, it’s about being able to sleep at night when you have a family to worry about. Why do you care if people wait before they’re comfortable in buying?
What, someone’s supposed to buy because YOU said so? Why should you care? In fact, why even post on this blog? You know why you do, to stir up shit. No other reason. And you obviously no zero about investing. That’s another story.
“(Lets say you can earn 5.0% annually on $100,000) or lose 3% annually on a $400,000 home. Net difference is $17,000 in one year. ($5,000 plus $12,000).
You win on both sides this way.”
Commercial RE,
You are exactly right. I don’t know why this is such a hard concept for many to comprehend. Add, to your example, the difference between the monthy carrying cost of owning versus renting same property. I saw a SFH, asking 649K or rent for $2,500 per mo. Who in their right mind would purchase rather than rent??? I know, the key point is “right mind”.
From the Lehigh Morning Call:
Housing no drag on jobs
As 2006 wound down, the Lehigh Valley’s economy enjoyed continued strength on the jobs front, tempered by increasing weakness in the housing market.
Home prices in the region fell in November for the first time in more than two years, according to statistics from the Lehigh Valley Association of Realtors. The average cost of an existing home in Lehigh and Northampton counties was $208,000, a drop of 2 percent from November 2005.
The dip in prices means homeowners who are trying to sell their properties might not be getting as much as they had hoped. Buyers, on the other hand, have their pick of properties, allowing them to make offers that are below the listing price.
Other key indicators are also pointing to a slowdown:
The number of homes sold has fallen six consecutive months. In November, the number of homes sold fell 22 percent, compared to the same month last year.
Houses are lingering on the market. On average, homes are staying on the market for 47 days, or about seven weeks. A year ago, they were moving in less than six weeks.
And the glut of homes on the market is slowing the pace of sales. The number of pending sales — a measure of future buying activity — fell 25 percent. It was the lowest number of pending sales contracts since December 2003.
BC Bob: I dont think people want to understand. Unfortunately the state is filled with idiots who calculate risk poorly. Every high school student in this country should learn the formulas on how to calculate risk (investing, health, driving a car, etc.) If this message was conveyed, taxes, insurance, etc. would all be less.)
BC,
Yes, I’ve also seen several examples of the same house for rent and sale. I know of one right now that is renting for $3500 or buy for $1.25M.
Cost to buy: $95,000 yr. interest and taxes plus repairs, maintenance, insurance
Rent: $42,000 yr.
$50,000 p/yr more to own, plus a $125,000 drop in value over 2 years using a conservative 5% loss per year. Tax deductions can’t come close to closing the gap.
The consumer price index uses the income method of valuing SFH houses…
“(Lets say you can earn 5.0% annually on $100,000) or lose 3% annually on a $400,000 home.”
You freakin’ betcha!
I’ve consistently made 5.3 – 5.7% annually ( add roughly 10%yr on $ depreciation (thank you Greenscum/Ben & M3),
BTW anybody been to Paris lately?)
Guess what, I’m ready to fire my 2006 pay load the next week (again).
There’s such thing as free … rent(you filthy TROLLS).
ChicagoFinance–thanks for the referral. I am not sure how to explain the link to you. ;-)
BTW, my brother and sis-in-law are fellow Chicago GSB alums. My cousin was accepted for next year.
Rachel
Clot,
re: gold
Just curious, short term trade or long term position???
“I know of one right now that is renting for $3500 or buy for $1.25M.”
Jay,
Totally absurd.
“Every high school student in this country should learn the formulas on how to calculate risk”
Commercial RE,
I agree, they should also reserve seats for their parents.
#262 chicagofinance Says:
att: I see Bayonne in your future
chifi:
I know the Bayonne market pretty well. When I was looking to buy a property late 2000. Apartmments in the downtown Jersey city were selling in the the 200s. For about the same price I boght a single family house with an additional 30X100 lot in Bayonne for the same price. The light-rail was started about a year back. At that time Bayonne was mostly an upper middle class white town. I took an assignment in London soon after and rented the place out until I sold it to a developer in early 2005 for an all cash deal, no inspections, etc. From what he paid me and the cost of construction, I don’t see how he will make money on the deal. I think he should consider himself lucky if he breaks even.
I was in Bayonne the other day to catch up with some old friends and they were telling me that the light rail is fully of artsy types who have been priced out of hoboken and downtown jersey city. I still think the valuations in Bayonne make more sense than Jersey City, but it lacks the cultural choices like restaurants, etc. But, Down town JC and downtown NYC is only about 30 mins away. And crime is far far lower than in JC. In fact it is even lower than the NJ average.
James Bednar Says:
January 14th, 2007 at 7:18 am
Here is a relo listed for less than the last sales price:
MLS# 2327638 – Mountain Lakes, NJ
Original List Price: $819,000
Current Asking: $779,000
DOM: 100
Purchased 8/2006 – $810,000
I have seen this house and it’s nice inside but you should be prepared to live on a teeny tiny lot squashed inbetween the train tracks or rt.46. They will be lucky to sell it for close to $799. Early last year these houses were selling in the high 800k range.
“I discovered early on that hanging out here sharpens my game.”
Clot,
As you are well aware,the banter back and forth is here is so inconsequential, compared to the size of this RE market. Does this site even represent .0001 of the the market??? My point, for those that don’t watch this market as close as we do, what is the present sentiment?? Are the buyers thinking they are getting a deal at 10% off 2005, are they swayed by the incentives??? Is the financing still predominantly arm’s/i/o’s?? Have the sellers gravitated from complacency to concern??? Do you forward some of the articles that Grim posts to sellers to better educate them regarding the market?? Simply, what is the state of the state, not Trenton, out there in the trenches???
KL???
“gold”
long baby!!
long = 5 years+
I don’t even want to think about what the price of crude will be in 5 years…. YIKES!!
One mans opinion ;)
SAS
“Crybabywannabes might look into other issues first: sub 600 FICA scores, overwhelming credit card debt, other personal choices and FEAR, while watching the Superbowl on that new 60″ flat screen being paid over 60 months at 21% interest. IS THIS YOU?? Only you know the honest answer.”
This is the stupidist statement you’ve made yet. Those people you describe above are the ones who bought houses with I/O ARMs over the past couple of years, not the people on this board.
And if you can’t tell the difference between being risk adverse and adverse to BAD risk, I have a bridge to sell you.
“They will be lucky to sell it for close to $799. Early last year these houses were selling in the high 800k range.”
Michelle,
That would represent approx 15% off. I guess we can throw out the theory that towns with top school districts won’t feel the pinch.
interesting little diddy from NPR.
“U.S. Foreign Policy and the Axis of Oil”
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6854133
SAS
SAS,
For gold to reach it’s 1980 high, in real terms,it will have to approach approx $2,400. Been long for over 3 years. However, I never underestimate the powers to be.[am hedged] Any 6-10% decline, the hedges are taken off, futures are added, at least for now,unless long term support fails. Watch the volatility.
Usual disclaimers apply.
Att,
Where in SI are you going to rent? I live in an area that’s pretty decent and the rent is quite a bit lower then what you’re going to pay. But it’s not granite anything. :)
BC Bob,
I forsee wars helping to push it towards those highs.
So, we will see.
SAS
I find it hard to believe that Israel won’t go after Iran to take out that son of a bitch Ahmadinejad.
Also, let us not forget about China & Taiwan.
“return to the motherland”
SAS
Setting a record of the 400th post.
Cheers,
Saw this spreadsheet at “iamfacingforeclosure.com”, I’ve never seen anything like it.
Is this guy for real?
spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pPacQAmy3C4AuHrqHYLazIQ
I do not believe he is for real. He’d be in prison for fraud by now…
scribe Says:
January 14th, 2007 at 11:24 am
att, you said:
She’s going to get $1600 from this, I’m going to get $300 – all paid by my company.
Geez, don’t risk your job over $300.
scribe: dead-on…..sounds like grounds for immediate termination at most companies with any semblance of a code of conduct
att: don’t brag to anyone else about your little game; you are already pretty clueless to have posted this information in a public forum….
SAS,
CD.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aa.xUnYwXS6E&refer=home
BC Bob (168)-
My gold short is def. a trade. If it hits 580, I’m out.
I’m a long-term gold bull. Too many nuts out there with power.
BC Bob (172)-
Going fast now. SD-Pats up soon.
The “state of the state” is this:
1. Buyers want to buy. Biggest hinderance is not price resistance, but buyers unable to sell their own homes. This is why I’m so incredulous that so many posters here claim it’s a “buyers’ market”.
2. I have my own stats I share with reluctant sellers. Not that Grim’s aren’t good…it’s just that sellers can’t extrapolate useful info from circumstances outside their immediate scope. The biggest problem I have with sellers is when we are priced well RELATIVE to our immediate competition. It’s a struggle to get these sellers to understand that ALL the houses in our range may be overpriced and that we’ll do better to price-position below the logjam. Time is moving sellers off untenable positions, though.
3. ARMs & I/Os are still around. Fewer of my office’s deals are going this way, but I can’t vouch for the overall market. However, if you think there’s a dearth of subprime money to be had, you’re dreaming. I’ve seen a couple of 100% stated income doozies lately that have hair on them longer than the Geico cavemen. However, both those loans had a real risk premium built in. That’s something I haven’t seen in a while.
And that’s the way it is, Sunday, 1/14/07. GO PATS +4!
Sorry, BC- 4:17 post must’ve gotten shot into moderation.
The history of man: “Too many nuts out there with power.”
BC Bob,
“As you are well aware,the banter back and forth is here is so inconsequential, compared to the size of this RE market. Does this site even represent .0001 of the the market??? My point, for those that don’t watch this market as close as we do, what is the present sentiment??”
The finest comment you have posted to date. This blog isn’t the RE market, only a very very small and biased piece of it.
Hence, some of the contrarian postings from listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
biased. LOL!!!
“I’ve seen a couple of 100% stated income doozies lately that have hair on them longer than the Geico cavemen.”
LOL!!! Sorry, going for the Chargers.
Thanks for the input, #407. For what it is worth, my puts come off and futures added at 570-580, if we get there.
Usual Disclaimers Apply
Kickoff!!
Go Bears! wow. hell of a game
Go Pats!!
SAS
“As you are well aware,the banter back and forth is here is so inconsequential, compared to the size of this RE market.”
True – But to those who read this webblog. IT’S PRICELESS. Remember:pearls before swine.
Here’s a perfect example of rent vs. buy:
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2628597&id=999999
You can rent this Ridgewood house for $48,000 p/year
or “rent” the money to buy the house for $94,000 p/year ($77,500 p/year in interest @ 6.2% PLUS taxes of $16,500)
When owning is twice the cost of renting, you can be sure something is terribly wrong. No crystal ball needed here.
http://www.otteau.com/The_Otteau_Report/2006.Q3.MiddlesexCounty.pdf
Projected inventory absorbtion in E Brunswick is 8 months and growing.
As you are well aware,the banter back and forth is here is so inconsequential, compared to the size of this RE market. Does this site even represent .0001 of the the market???
December saw roughly ~16,000 absolute unique visitors and ~57,000 unique visits. Given the pace in January, we should finish the month with approximately ~20,000 absolute unique visitors and ~65,000 unique visits.
jb
“BTW, Global warming is not a theory, it’s accepted by every scientist in the world that’s not paid by Exxon.”
Seems some geology classes are in order.
The Earth is a rock traveling through space at thousands of miles an hour, with the gravity of other bodies affecting various orbits, etc.
It’s amusing that humans tend to view Earth’s climate as a perfect, unchanging thing.
Rest assured, within a few thousand years, Manhattan will be covered by miles of ice:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/clisci100k.html
One of a kind
“in January, we should finish the month with approximately ~20,000 absolute unique visitors and ~65,000 unique visits”
Holy Crow JB…
You sure about those stats?
If that many people, why only the usual suspects ever post messages?
SAS
December saw roughly ~16,000 absolute unique visitors and ~57,000 unique visits. Given the pace in January, we should finish the month with approximately ~20,000 absolute unique visitors and ~65,000 unique visits.
WOW
So, 0.00 01% of market?? what the market in all NJ?? 1I remember something like 100 thousand i think – with all types of property unites for sale….. so if it would stop 20,000 peoplefrom buying…. wow again. You can see why realtor/seller would be worried.
‘An Inconvenient Truth’ was very interesting, I have to admit and motivated me do be more environmental aware about my lifestyle… and I think Al Gore is a fruitcake.
ALthough, in ‘An Inconvenient Truth’, Gore had his head up his rump when he talked about the Koyote treaty.
BTW- Just because I am more eco-friendly, doesn’t mean I am tie dye wearing, beatnick hippie.
Hey burnout… get a horse..he …he..
;)
SAS
I think NAR will bribe JB to switch the blog to more positive…. but again there are about 20-25 well know blogs regionally…
so let’s say 1mil/blog… it would be a lot cheaper than their new advertisement compain….
That would represent approx 15% off. I guess we can throw out the theory that towns with top school districts won’t feel the pinch.
Bob. My experience is completely anecdotal but I have seen a shift in the market in Mountain Lakes / Boonton Township (both go to Mountain Lakes HS). We have been looking in both towns for over a year and are starting to see open houses where we are the only people that used to be swamped. Houses were selling over the infalted asking price within days of being listed. Many didn’t even hit the MLS. Now I am actually seeing reduction after reduction (gasp, the horror) and realtors actually having to work to sell a house. Just yesterday there was a free breakfast being offered at an open house in a new Boonton Township development and I am hearing “make an offer” much more than “we are only taking offers at or above asking”. I’m not saying the market here is crashing but it is slipping and more than just slightly.
Michelle
December saw roughly ~16,000 absolute unique visitors and ~57,000 unique visits. Given the pace in January, we should finish the month with approximately ~20,000 absolute unique visitors and ~65,000 unique visits.
Just curious – how are you determining unique visitors?
Why would anybody post here without supplying data to back them up? Don’t they know they’re being laughed at? Someone pissed about their own shortcomings spews nonsense here and they think they will persuade someone else? Into believing what?
This blog supplies data so indepth and so precise that the NAR sits there scratching thier head in disbelief. Frankly, I’m in disbelief that a lot more of you don’t call these trolls out. AND I ALREADY OWN A HOME!!! I can only imagine how fired up I would be if I didn’t.
“December saw roughly ~16,000 absolute unique visitors and ~57,000 unique visits. Given the pace in January, we should finish the month with approximately ~20,000 absolute unique visitors and ~65,000 unique visits.”
To clarify, when I stated inconsequential, I meant total #’s not market sentiment.
JB,
I would never guess that the #’s were this big. I retract my statement. Everybody misconstrued my definition of “is”.
Is there a quick and easy formula for calculating how much a property should rent for based on its market sale value?
rent is tied up to salaries of the group you are targeting, not to house values….
Economists upgrade US outlook after surprisingly strong
data
Economists are hastily upgrading their forecasts for the US economy after a series of surprisingly strong reports suggesting the so-called “soft landing” may be over and growth is accelerating.
Over the past week, surprises have come in stronger-than-expected reports on US job creation, the trade balance and retail sales — all key contributors to economic activity.
Lehman Brothers chief US economist Ethan Harris on Friday boosted his forecast for fourth quarter 2006 growth to an annualized rate of 3.3 percent, a leap from the firm’s prior call for just 2.0 percent growth.
[…]
The latest data showed US employers added a healthy 167,000 new jobs in December, with unemployment holding at a low 4.5 percent. Average wages were up 4.2 percent annually.
A separate report Friday showed US retail sales increased 0.9 percent in December.
[…]
…some analysts say the strong data may be distorted by mild weather and drops in energy costs.
“Some of this strength, however, should prove illusory,” said Wachovia Securities economists in a research note.
“Housing and motor vehicle production are still major drags on output, with residential construction expected to slice another percentage point off fourth quarter growth and declines in motor vehicle output slicing off another percentage point.”
Wachovia expects GDP growth “to slow to around a two percent pace in 2007 and look for a string of seven consecutive quarters of GDP growth below three percent,” the report said.
“Most of this slowing reflects the unraveling of the housing boom, which we believe still has a way to go. Consumer spending will also pack less punch but will post modest gains.”
This page has gotten so long that it’s starting to impact download times. JB, is there any way to tweak the software so no more than x posts show up per page, allowing for a user to navigate from page 1 through n? Might be a useful feature on these weekend threads, especially if you make a practice of opening them up early like you did this time.
Disclosure: I am on cable.. not dialup.
Yeah – it downloads in 0.05 seconds instead of 0.04.
grim: slacking again – and you don’t even like football!
What happened? Did your sea anemone come down with a fungus?
Listen up-
I have a sort of sad but instructive story about a bully. This bully used to harass my little bro every day, making fun of him because my bro used to study and get good grades (while this particular bully did not). Because the other kids in the school were scared of him, they would either laugh or chuckle. I used to hate seeing it happen on our school bus everyday but instead of yelling back at this kid, I would just counsel my bro the best way I knew as a 10 year old sister, to just ignore him. Now one day the bully got a surprise at school -he was asked to join the school’s science fair and present a project. My bro was presenting too. All of a sudden, this kid becomes my bro’s best friend. He wanted to meet after school to work on their projects, etc. They never really maintained a friendship but needless to say the bullying stopped. Then when they were in HS, we found out that he ended up getting admitted to a psychiatric hospital. Very sad.
The reason for this story: We have found ourselves among a bunch of trolls (bullies) lately. They claim to know us and our financial situation, goals, and values better than we do. Ignore them!!
AFE
Why Income Inequality Matters
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/economist/19750
The most convenient statistic for measuring income inequality is called a Gini coefficient, which measures a country’s distribution of income from 0 (absolute equality, with each person sharing the same amount of wealth) to 1 (absolute inequality, with one person controlling all of the nation’s wealth).
Japan: .25
Sweden: .25
India: .33
The United States 1970: .39
The United States 2005: .47 (Note that a small fraction of the increase over time is due to a change in the methodology for calculating the Gini coefficient;
Brazil: .58
AFE:
People respond to incentives. There is a huge incentive for a builder, seller or agent to watch bears right now. Pricing is crucial.
It’s not so much “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em,” as a “know thine enemy.”
A losing investor or seller could conceivably troll here just to release some misplaced steam. But the real incentive should be to pick up market information not available elsewhere, in order to price correctly. Unless the seller is still in the denial stage.
Personal calculator for your own inflation rate
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a8d9bb02-a407-11db-bec4-0000779e2340.html
The UK’s top statistical office is fighting back against accusations, fuelled by newspaper campaigns, that its inflation index is inaccurate and underestimates the rate of inflation experienced by most people.
The Office for National Statistics on Monday launches a personal inflation calculator on its website….
#426 Gary – That’s one of the problems that real-estate floggers have vs most of the posters on this site who believe the market is deflating(the “bloggers” or the “LOD”). The floggers generally come in yelling about how the bloggers are wrong, cowardly, poor, or stupid by thinking that the market is deflating and/or waiting to buy. What the floggers don’t do, is to present data to support their positions (either on the housing market or on the personal attacks). And the few times they present data, it’s been NAR manufactured data that would be a joke, except so many people suffer because of it.
I view the market as deflating, but as someone who’s mostly economically RE neutral (I own and am looking to buy 2nd), I’d love to see some floggers come on and show meaningful support for the “other side”. If nothing else, there’d be some good discussion. But, I just haven’t seen the floggers put up a good fight. While some people have complained that the blogger outpouring against floggers is hostile – I think it’s because the regulars on this site are exposed to a lot of sophisticated data and discussion, and don’t appreciate some random joker dropping in with no data (or bad data) making baseless ad hominem attacks. It’s just stupid and it becomes more irritating the more you see it happen.
-P
Hey, Gary: Can you imagine if the U.S. gubmint, I mean the FED, did that?
AARP hits alone would probably blow out the site daily with everyone trying to calculate the truth about Social Security indexing.
Oops, 438 was in response to njrebear.
“They never really maintained a friendship but needless to say the bullying stopped.”
AFE,
Reminds me of the a**holes that actually have a bumper sticker that says[paraphrasing] “my kid beat the s*it out of your honor student”
The same morons that had no clue what they were signing [I/O’s]. They are so damn smart they are off to see the sheriff, not the wizard.
Pat,
AARP is getting hosed, with regards to SS. There’s a better chance that flippers will be saved than a 2-3%, present, inflation rate.
Pat (#435) –
Point taken…the trolls are trying to figure this market out. But the ones who think they can get potential buyers’ psychology to change by bullying..well they really don’t know what works with buyers do they? I am not likely to buy from the guy at circuit city who is bullying me (into buying the latest LCD flat screen during X-mas ’05) compared to the guy who can give me info that allows me to use my intelligence and make my own consumer decision!!
Go Pats!! (well go Pat too!!)
AFE
re #434 (income inequality)
Japan: .25
Sweden: .25
India: .33
The United States 1970: .39
The United States 2005: .47
Brazil: .58
what percentage of the entire wealth of the U.S. do you suppose is held in and around NYC?
travel to the midwest, south or west excluding the coast and you will see that class divides are really not so severe.
But in the NE and in California, it is a whole diff’t ballgame. You are either rich or poor around here. The few middle class who are left are busy trying to find a way out to the south and west.
This is why I have repeatedly said that median income figures are pretty much meaningless as far as housing affordability goes in this area.
The demographics of our region are like a barbell (or a 3d world country, take your pick) with lots of rich on one end and lots of poor on the other.
Interesting…….
http://www-news.uchicago.edu/citations/07/070104.goolsbee-nyt.html
I think 2pac is alive. I saw him at a open house this weekend.
Chi,
It’s ironic. We are at a stage where high oil prices are actually a positive for our markets. The abundant petro dollars can not be absorbed into their own economies. As you are well aware, these petro dollars are recycled thru the UK into our asset prices, stocks/bonds. Are we [our markets] better off with $60 crude as compared to $30 crude??
“Bonds fell on speculation Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui will on Jan. 18 raise rates to prevent excessive business investment and asset-price bubbles. Fukui in a quarterly speech last week omitted a phrase about the “sluggish tempo of the U.S. expansion,” which some economists say is a signal the central bank is confident in the outlook for exports, one of the main drivers of the nation’s economic growth.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=as2nNhR5c6Xg&refer=home
I would never guess that the #’s were this big. I retract my statement. Everybody misconstrued my definition of “is”.
Don’t read too far into those numbers, they aren’t as impressive as they look. Keep in mind that if you log in from work, home, and Starbucks, those are treated as 3 unique visits. Like I’ve said before, there might be a real estate war going on, but this isn’t the front lines. By the way, stats are provided by Google Analytics.
What happened? Did your sea anemone come down with a fungus?
Went out to the movies, I’ve got to go every once in a while to remind myself that I’d rather just wait until the DVD comes out.
jb
#437 Politely Says:
I completely agree.
Many of these guys start out by insulting people choosing to rent and calling renters loosers etc. When they run out of rational arguments or data to support their claim they resort to really cheap tricks. They like to claim that real-estate will continue to appreciate endless for ever and ever and will never decline in price.
They also claim that the slowdown that never existed is over and the market is picking up again. I am not going to waste my time responding to these idiots. I’ll remind them again of their stupidity in Dec 2008.
I am a renter, but only from Jan 2005. I owned until then. I will buy again late this year or earl next year when I get a house for the price I want. I see many homes that were pulled from the market last year in Summit, Berkeley Heights, New Providence, coming back on the market at lower asking prices. Of course these are now *New* listings.
Sayreville rejects 207-home plan
The Sayreville Planning Board unanimously turned down a developer’s application to build 207 homes on a 100-acre plot off Main Street…
[…]
Fulton’s Landing Inc., owned by Peter and Lorraine Mocco in Jersey City, sought approval to build the homes on the former clay mine site in 2005…
[…]
The board held one meeting on the proposed development earlier this month and another last night. The session last night attracted a full house at the borough council chambers.
“It’s a big hole,” Theresa Strek, a longtime resident, said about the site.
The plot was excavated to a pit that drops off sharply from Main Street, according to Strek and Tighe. The water table was decreased to just 4 to 5 feet below existing grade during its years as a mine.
Residents and board members expressed concern the site may flood or inundate surrounding neighborhoods.
The soil in the site is unstable and may require heavy machines to compact the soil, Tighe said.
“The tremors (of the machines) will damage nearby homes,” Strek said.
The developer proposed building traditional single-family houses, some with basements, and with two-car garages.
[…]
But residents voiced concerns traffic on Main Street will be worse and that the houses would attract families with children, increasing residents’ school tax burdens.
[…]
…the developer will appeal the decision.
Most of the talk on this blog focuses on housing that’s a lot more expensive than I can afford. Would a lot of the conversation here apply to homes in the $150-200k range?
That amount pre-bubble could get you a small SFH in NE Philadelphia, but now it would only get you a rowhome that cost half that much 4 years ago.
Do you think the prices would be stickier in that price range because there are more people out there who could afford it?
This massively long thread has gotten me to thinking about risk. More specifically, it’s gotten me thinking about how people define acceptable vs unacceptable risk.
Back in our parents’ day (the end of WWII thru the 1970’s), a primary residence was desirable and important in the grand scheme of a family’s finances, but it was never the crown jewel. Families who possessed any significant degree of wealth held that wealth in traditional, liquid investments such as stocks, bonds and money market instruments. Housing was more about emotional security and keeping a roof over one’s head; any appreciation that came a homeowner’s way was considered “gravy”, and annual appreciation rates that barely tracked inflation were considered adequate. And, people hardly ever changed jobs or moved. I can remember going to “mortgage burning” parties of my parents’ friends, celebrating making the last payment on a traditional 30-yr note. RE in those days was a valuable, but not very risky investment.
Fast forward to now. After a gigantic asset bubble burst in the late ’90s; the rise of vehicles that allow owners to liquiefy home equity; the spread of hot, cheap money worldwide; and the “nesting” of America spurred by the events of 9/11, the average American family now has over 70% of its wealth tied up in real estate.
So, the question is: now that RE is the preferred means of wealth creation for American families, how far have the stakes been raised? And, how has this elevated risk changed the game forever? Whether the market and home prices are up or down, the public wants and values RE. Even now, even here in permabearland, I don’t hear anyone saying “I don’t ever want to own a home.”. The overwhelming consensus opinion is that homeownership is a desirable thing. But the stakes are bigger, so the risks of ownership are, too.
I have no idea of what the long-term implications of this sea change are. However, I strongly suspect that the extraordinary risk that has been unleashed is a genie that cannot be put back in the bottle.
Anyway, many who post here are- by their own admissions- famously risk-averse. Their “wait things out” stance assumes that at some point of further market decline, the risk of homeownership will recede vs. the perceived benefits. However, what if that point comes…and our risk-averse friends STILL cannot pull the trigger, because falling housing prices are now accompanied by some other troubling external factors, like recession, credit collapse and/or runaway inflation. Even a slow, grinding unwinding of housing prices is bound to be woven into a fabric of some other very unpleasant economic stuff.
Here’s the ultimate question: are we all fighting about the wrong thing? Could it be that whether prices will go up or down isn’t really going to determine the future of housing in America? Could it be that the real problem has been that simply TOO MANY people own houses? And, finally, if housing has permanently become a risk-charged, high-flying investment, what constitutes an appropriate level of American homeowership, and what investment vehicles will replace homeownership for scores of risk-averse Americans?
“To me, the whole idea is getting to a price that gets people walking thru the door. It’s an easy calculation right now: no showings= no interest.”
More like, no showings = price too high.
I’m interested in a lot of houses, but won’t waste time looking at them because the seller is living in La La Land.
I’d rather let a few hundred days on the market adjust their outlook.
Clot
Once again enjoyed your post, but I must debate you on one point ((((I can remember going to “mortgage burning” parties of my parents’ friends, celebrating making the last payment on a traditional 30-yr note. )))
I am 46 ( dont know your age) I remember my friends parents having a mortgage burning party but it was a 20 yr note.
KL
PS: Had an incredibly busy open house today!
Al,
Am curious as to which towns in Middlesex County did you look at open houses this weekend?
Also, congrats with the baby on the way. We have a 1 yr old and live in a 2 bedroom in North/South Brunswick border; we haven’t felt short on space. As long as you don’t load up on bulky baby stuff, you should be fine.
Renting gives us the peace of mind for now. Buying at these stratospheric prices would force wife to go to work and actually reduce our standard of living (since the starter homes are all POS).
Lishosh #402, that Casey is a nutcase, it’s probably real.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pPacQAmy3C4AuHrqHYLazIQ
33% interest rate on credit cards, what a goof.
I have no idea of what the long-term implications of this sea change are. However, I strongly suspect that the extraordinary risk that has been unleashed is a genie that cannot be put back in the bottle.
I’m not convinced the recent (5 years or so) shift in attitude toward owning real estate as an investment is indicative of a long-term paradigm shift. Just 7 years ago, we could be having the same conversation about stocks. It seemed like every Joe Sixpack had an Ameritrade account and a hot tip on the next Microsoft.
I’m also convinced that most American’s haven’t suddenly become less risk averse. It’s really the lack of perceived risk that fueled the housing boom. Many saw the stock market as low risk in early 2000. When the NASDAQ turned south, many average “investors” were shocked to actually lose money.
Without double digit appreciation, I think most American’s will lose interest in RE and move on the next big thing. Houses will once again be a place to live and a source of financial stability, but not a path to riches.
When attitudes change toward real estate, I have to wonder what the appetite will be toward risky financial vehicles. An option ARM is great when houses are appreciating at 15% per year, outpacing the growing loan balance, but what about in a normal market? Will lending institutions still be willing to underwrite high risk mortgagees? Will regulators step in and impose restrictions to safeguard against systemic risk? In the late 1920’s, interest only mortgages were very popular, so what we are seeing today isn’t really anything this country hasn’t seen before, and I am sure, will see again.
“Most of the talk on this blog focuses on housing that’s a lot more expensive than I can afford. Would a lot of the conversation here apply to homes in the $150-200k range?”
That price range basically applies to a 1 bedroom, 1 bath condo, if you’re lucky.
And condos are dropping in price, so the answer to your question is “yes.”
Can someone please shed some light on listing MLS #4717475? Am curious what the address is.
re #443,
“This is why I have repeatedly said that median income figures are pretty much meaningless as far as housing affordability goes in this area.”
>>
A big and increasing divide between rich and poor should also cause property values in their ‘preferred’ localities to vary like in Brazil[refer article]. Contrary to your assessment, Camden in NJ too has also experienced significant increase in property values. Therefore i feel the recent housing appreciation has no fundamental backing other than greed.
I will believe that housing affordability has no meaning in NY region if we start seeing a divide in property value appreciation as well. Meaning ‘poor’ areas should decrease in value while the ‘rich’ areas should always increase in value.
Clot #452 – I think that historically, people have not viewed their homes as investments (as opposed to RE investing or developing) because it wasn’t a particularly good investment. This article sums up my view:
http://www.smartmoney.com/mag/index.cfm?story=feb02-investment
I think it’s a confluence of events, many of which you mention, which has caused this run up. Contributing to this is that I think too many people who shouldn’t own homes have bought homes, but that will change via foreclosure and tightening lending standards. What do you make of the census numbers below?
Overall, I expect the housing market to return to historical means, but not quickly, absent sudden changes in the financial markets.
-P
Census Bureau, % of home ownership in NJ:
2005 – 67.3 1960 – 61.3
2000 – 65.6 1950 – 53.1
1990 – 64.9 1940 – 39.4
1980 – 62.0 1930 – 48.4
1970 – 60.9 1920 – 38.3
Since I was at the Census site anyways…. You may find the following two sets of statistics interesting. They are from the 2005 American Community Survey data:
1) Housing Costs: Percent of Mortgaged Owners Spending 30+ % of Household Income on Selected Monthly Owner Costs*
Geography: New Jersey
Estimate: 40.7 Percent
(United States: Estimate: 34.5 Percent)
NJ was behind CA with 47.7% and NV at 42.4%, NY had 38.9%.
2) Housing Costs: Median Monthly Housing Costs for Owner-Occupied Housing Units With a Mortgage (Dollars)
Geography: New Jersey
Estimate: 1,938 Dollars
(United States: Estimate: 1,295 Dollars)
CA came in second with – $1,912, and for comparison, NY was 5th with $1,652.
*”Selected monthly owner costs include the sum of payments for mortgages, deeds of trust, or similar debts on the property (including payments for the first mortgage, second or junior mortgages, and home equity loans); real estate taxes; fire, hazard, and flood insurance on the property; utilities (electricity, gas, water, and sewer); and fuels (oil, coal, kerosene, wood, etc.). It also includes, where appropriate, monthly condominium fees.”
My grandmother lives in East Rutherford. I live in the Bay Area, California. We have been experiencing quite a bubble phenomena. Due to heath reasons, she will be moving to California, and she will be selling her house (possibly to me or someone in my family). Sorry for being a newbie, and not reading the wealth of info on the NJ housing situation… but can someone give me the quick rundown?
I know it is not possible to run a profit on renting where I live. But, if a person were to purchase a 3 bedroom house in East Rutherford (for around $360K), would it be possible to end up cash positive month to month?
Sorry for the possibly redundant question, just not familiar with the market out there. :)
Thanks for any help.
Kat
Clotpoll brough very interesting point in post 452 – it may deserve a sepaprate thread.
A while ago I asked similar question: How the greatly increased liquidity of the workforce affected homeownership – right now people are moving a lot more, while for our grandparents it was normal to live all their life in one home.
And My opinion it would lower the homeownership ration but instead it raised it – at least temporarily??
JB – do you think this deserves a sepaprate Thread – could you compile something to address it??
In addition : Why would people buy a house, if the know that they have to move in a few years. In past few years the answer was easy – to gain 40% of house value in 2 years.
Now it is not so clear.
As far as too many people owning – you mean too many people renting from bank vs, renting from a person??
It is all comes down to Current Era being impersonal and Corporation/stock market driven.
Instead of renting from a person who own homes, we are renting from banks, instead of dealing with a family doctor we have to go to huge hospital, instead of getting to know you banker, who is personally responsible for your money we are getting loans from some huge corporations and opening savings account on the internet.
SO the NEW trend is to replace personal responsibility with CORPORATE.
That Said, I can see, for example in 50 years 90% of property is owned by huge REIT, and instead of buying homes we will be buying REIT stocks, and renting the homes, may be even with furnuture, plates, and silverwear (but not a bedsheets, please)….
This way there is no 6% fee everytime you have to move, which will make global workforce a lot more mobile.
I am not sure though if REIT will still be trading at x20 earnings….. right now they are stupid to buy.
Very interesting post, Clotpoll.
Thanks to everyone for making this one of the most active and widely read weekends on record!
jb
JB – do you think this deserves a sepaprate Thread – could you compile something to address it??
Done, it would be worthwhile to repost your most recent comment under the new thread.
jb
>>> Yeah but how many offers… zilch!
Clot
Once again enjoyed your post, but I must debate you on one point ((((I can remember going to “mortgage burning” parties of my parents’ friends, celebrating making the last payment on a traditional 30-yr note. )))
I am 46 ( dont know your age) I remember my friends parents having a mortgage burning party but it was a 20 yr note.
KL
PS: Had an incredibly busy open house today!
>>> Wow yeah just for giggles I went to two open houses this Sunday in Frankling Twp. I townhouse was going for 374,000 and the other for 363,000. The first one was under ”
contract” where the buyer had to sell his other home first. The agent (century 21) was trying rationalize that 2006 was just a stall and activity is picking back up. I ignored him but my mom got into it with him saying the house will not appreciate higher and the stall means a crash is coming.
Agents are so DESPERATE!
I will continue to RENT see you in Dec. 2008.
# AntiTrump Says:
January 14th, 2007 at 9:55 pm
#437 Politely Says:
I completely agree.
Many of these guys start out by insulting people choosing to rent and calling renters loosers etc. When they run out of rational arguments or data to support their claim they resort to really cheap tricks. They like to claim that real-estate will continue to appreciate endless for ever and ever and will never decline in price.
They also claim that the slowdown that never existed is over and the market is picking up again. I am not going to waste my time responding to these idiots. I’ll remind them again of their stupidity in Dec 2008.
I am a renter, but only from Jan 2005. I owned until then. I will buy again late this year or earl next year when I get a house for the price I want. I see many homes that were pulled from the market last year in Summit, Berkeley Heights, New Providence, coming back on the market at lower asking prices. Of course these are now *New* listings.