From the Asbury Park Press:
State residents bearish about money, business
Half of New Jersey consumers expect their household will do the same or worse financially compared with last year, and state residents are nearly as bearish about business conditions this year, a survey finds.
The fifth annual poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s Silbermann College of Business finds 47 percent expect business conditions to get worse or stay the same, while only 37 percent expect conditions to improve. The remaining 16 percent were uncertain.
A year ago, 40 percent expected business conditions to get worse or stay the same over the coming 12 months, while 43 percent expected them to improve.
In one of the biggest shifts from last year’s survey, 24 percent said business conditions in the Garden State are better than a year ago, compared with 33 percent in 2006. Meanwhile, 60 percent said business conditions are worse or the same compared with a year ago, up from 52 percent the year before.
James Almeida, associate dean of the business school, attributed the pessimism about business conditions to a slew of factors: increasing concerns about the economic impact of the Iraq war, slow job growth in New Jersey, an expected decline in the real estate market, more people knowing someone who lost a job last year and more having increased their credit-card debt.
“My sense is it is turning into a sort of economic uncertainty,” he said.
The survey found 38 percent thought housing prices in their neighborhoods would go down this year, 35 percent had relatives or close friends lose their jobs last year, and 24 percent increased the balances on their credit cards, even though only 6 percent surveyed the year before said they expected to have to do that. That might explain why, on the question of what people would do if they suddenly received an extra $1,000, 41 percent said they would use it to pay bills, compared with 34 percent last year.
Meanwhile, 42 percent said they expect their family finances to be better this year, the same percentage as a year ago; 22 percent said they expect their finances to be the same this year, compared with 18 percent in the prior survey. Twenty-seven percent saw their financial situation getting worse, with about 10 percent unsure.
The poll found more than two-thirds of those surveyed expect to go away on a vacation of one week or longer, and about one in four respondents expect to make a home improvement of $1,000 or more or make investments outside their pension or 401(k) plan. Only one in five expects to get a new car or buy a computer.
From the Rhode Island News:
Concerns over new law leads lender to drop R.I. loans
Option One Mortgage Corp., the state’s dominant lender to borrowers with credit problems, has stopped making mortgage loans in Rhode Island, citing concerns about the state’s new predatory-lending law.
The California-based mortgage company is one of a half-dozen lenders in the “subprime” market which this month suspended, at least for now, lending in Rhode Island since the state’s new Home Loan Protection Act became effective Jan. 1, according to a Providence lawyer and board member of the Rhode Island Mortgage Bankers Association, James H. Hahn.
The state Department of Business Regulation’s director, A. Michael Marques, said yesterday that regulators are reviewing the agency’s “emergency” regulation on the law, which the agency had rushed into production to meet a New Year deadline. The regulations were designed to help lenders comply with the new law, which Hahn described as a complicated and ambiguous statute created from a patchwork of other state laws.
…
The statute sets restrictions on how lenders may collect fees and points on high-cost loans, which the law defines based on the interest rates, points and fees. Any loan that meets the criteria would now automatically require that the borrower obtain credit counseling.
The law also prohibits lenders from extending “high-cost” home loans to borrowers without verifying the borrower’s income and ability to pay. The safeguards are aimed at protecting consumers with less-than-perfect credit from taking on mortgages they can’t afford and losing their houses to foreclosure.
On Jan. 9, Option One issued a “Compliance Alert” bulletin to mortgage brokers around Rhode Island stating that effective on that date the company would “temporarily suspend the origination and purchase of all owner- occupied loan transactions if the subject property is located in Rhode Island.”
From the Institutional Risk Analyst:
Capital One Financial: Is COF Just Like Other Big Banks?
First, some background. For the past several months, we’ve been hearing various media pundits declaring that the worst is over in the US real estate sector — this even as anecdotal reports from the credit channel indicate that fundamentals are continuing to deteriorate. Indeed, the divergence of opinion on the housing sector is so wide as to remind us of the late 1990s, when a growing chorus of disapproval questioned tech stock valuations, even as the true believers refused to acknowledge the realities in the marketplace. The song remains the same.
The FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile released in November reported that “the amount of loans and leases that were noncurrent (90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status) increased by $3.4 billion (6.9 percent) during the third quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter that noncurrent loans have increased, and it is the largest quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2001.”
Nowhere is the battle over the condition of the US real estate sector more intense than in the financial media. Last week, for example, we witnessed CNBC commentator Larry Kudlow and his free market sidekick, Art Laffer, dispute the notion that US real estate was on the verge of a serious correction and, even if it is, that a real estate deflation would effect the nation’s economic growth.
A bearish report, to be sure.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAHHH!
“WAAAAAAAAAAAAHHH! ”
lol…is that the sound that flippers make now?
More on MLN, from the Stamford Advocate:
Troubled mortgage firm turns hundreds of furloughs into layoffs
A troubled Middletown-based mortgage lender has informed hundreds of its employees, including about 200 in Connecticut, that they will be laid off permanently.
Layoff notices were sent over the past few days to about 830 furloughed employees of Mortgage Lenders Network USA, which abruptly shut down Dec. 29, The Hartford Courant reported Tuesday.
Its newest layoffs in Connecticut come in addition to about 100 cuts made three weeks ago. The company also faces orders from Connecticut and seven other states to finish financing home loans that had closed in late December, but had yet to be funded.
From MarketWatch:
Goldman Sachs lifts view on U.S. homebuilders
Goldman Sachs raised its rating on U.S. homebuilders to neutral from sell, saying the worst may be past but that the fundamentals behind the market remain “very troubling”, including high cancellation rates leading to increased speculative building and home price declines contributing to rapid margin compression. “With the next meaningful data to come from the spring selling season at least 6-8 weeks away, we are upgrading the homebuilding sector to neutral until we gain further conviction on the magnitude and direction of the next leg of the current housing downturn,” the broker told clients.
Grim (2)-
So how come Capital One (COF)- whose stock has recently drawn intense short interest- reported during their latest quarterly report that defaults are DOWN?
The short interest around COF was fueled by speculation that its defaults would rise significantly, as COH extends significant consumer credit to higher-risk segments.
Now, COF, sporting one of the lowest P/Es in the sector, has reported quality earnings, and the shorts are getting squeezed out.
Economic challenges exist everywhere, but the picture’s just not as bad as some might wish.
I put a bid on a house this weekend that was not accepted. The house was purchased in late 05 for 435K and had 70K dropped into it. Well 4 months on the market in 06 and multiple offers later it seems that this flip has flopped. My realtor contacted his realtor and she said that he wouldnt budge lower than 560 (down from 590)because at my bid he wouldnt clear broker fees and not make a profit. The guy declined someone who bid 535K. The 6 month comps would suggest that this house should cost between 510-530K, he should have taken the 535K, as my offer was slightly below the 6 month comp range.
I am seeing a lot of homes with similar situations. I am learning its better to deal with long term homeowners than flippers, you’re more likely to pay more buying from a flipper as they expect you to cover broker fees and they also want to make a profit in a down year. Thats the part I cant understand if the house is worth less how do you expect to make a profit and clear broker fees. The margins are tight on a starter home if there are any in this market. I guess we can all dream.
The really funny thing about the article linked in Grim’s post #2 is that the writer is simultaneously bullish on Citi (C), a serial underperformer in the banking sector.
And if that weren’t enough, C is also helmed by one of the worst CEOs on Wall Street, the firm has been tainted by multiple scandals dating back to the Sandy Weill regime, its stock has been permaglued to a narrow trading range for years…and its CEO-in-waiting, Sally Krawcheck, just got demoted to janitor yesterday.
Contrast with COF, a consistent, well-managed credit company, now evolving into a full-service bank with the acquisition of North Fork Bank, itself a well-run, innovative firm.
Note also that the article comes to conclusions based upon assumptions for ’07 that are in no way reliable, especially in the light of COF’s latest overperformance. In the credit biz, companies lowering default rates are rewarded with higher- not lower- multiples.
Usual disclaimers apply. I do not hold any position in either COF or C.
So how come Capital One (COF)- whose stock has recently drawn intense short interest- reported during their latest quarterly report that defaults are DOWN?
Are we talking defaults or delinquency rates?
How much of the decline in the delinquency rate was due to the inclusion of North Fork’s loan portfolio?
The managed charge-off rate for the company decreased to 2.99 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 from 4.53 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005, but rose from 2.92 percent in the previous quarter. The company increased its allowance for loan losses by $114.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2006, excluding the addition of allowance from the acquisition of North Fork. This increase was driven primarily by the expectation of continued normalization of charge-offs in the company’s US unsecured national lending businesses. The managed delinquency rate (30+ days) decreased to 3.02 percent as of December 31, 2006 driven largely by the addition of North Fork loans to the portfolio. The delinquency rate decreased from 3.24 percent as of the end of December 31, 2005 and decreased from 3.29 percent as of September 30, 2006. Without the addition of the North Fork loans, the charge-off and delinquency rates would have increased in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 3.25 percent and 3.68 percent, respectively.
jb
CK,
The flippers and I/O’s are toast. We have said this for over a year. They will be trapped. Well that’s exactly their situation, they are caged. I laugh when the bulls come on on state that asking prices are not dropping. Of course they aren’t, the flippers and I/O’s have zero room to maneuver. It’s either find some fool to pay 2005 prices or the sheriff. It’s all very simple. Sometimes we, not you, make this complicated. This is as easy a call as the dot com. I don’t even understand the argument.
If the house has changed hand in the last 3 years, the better strategy would be to contact the problem loan dept.
I didn’t post that piece because I had any feelings for or against (or positions in) the companies mentioned. Nor do I always agree with the pieces I post or side with their authors.
More often than not, I simply post up every article that I (or my bots) find on a given day. My intent is always to attempt to spur discussion.
jb
BC Bob has aptly described the two tracks that current sellers now follow. The first track is sellers who have- through dint of smarts or longtime occupancy- built significant equity in their homes. They have room to slash prices and are now doing so.
The second track is owners/flippers who have no equity and no “wiggle room”. I think they should be approached as one would approach any owner in pre-foreclosure mode (heck, many of these guys are).
Grim (#10)-
I did mean “delinquency”, not “default”. Thanks.
As your excerpt pointed out, the North Fork acquisition did dilute COF’s delinquency rate. Probably one reason of many they made the move. Now, the company reaps the benefits of diversification into higher-quality lending. The market doesn’t value stocks on what coulda been…they award a multiple based on what is…and COF doesn’t deserve a multiple lower than C.
Again, all disclaimers.
From Marketwatch:
D.R. Horton’s profit hit on land write-offs
D.R. Horton Inc., the nation’s largest home builder, said Tuesday that net income fell about 65% as the company took land charges and write-offs on options it plans not to pursue.
The Ft. Worth, Tex.-based company became the latest residential builder to announce a decline in quarterly profit decline as well as land-related charges as the housing and real-estate markets soften. Still, per-share earnings topped Wall Street’s expectations.
D.R. Horton reported net income fell to $109.7 million, or 35 cents a share, for the first quarter ended Dec. 31, down from $310.1 million, or 98 cents, earned in the year-ago period. Total revenue fell about $403 million, to $2.8 billion.
>>If the house has changed hand in the last 3 years, the better strategy would be to contact the problem loan dept.
ya see bc bob you just ruined an otherwise sound resp;onse.
Richard,
I agreed with CK’s post. The only sellers that have room to move are those that have built up equity. They have room to cut. Clot[another post] stated they are slashing. Sorry this does not coincide with your stance in this market. Again, he said “slashing”.
It’s a total waste of time dealing with a recent flipper or an I/O or both. CK stated that recent buyers can dream. What part of his post did I ruin??
BC Bob, you are ruining your posts by injecting some humor into them. Richard lost his funny bone in a banana boat ride accident back in ’89.
Seneca,
Yeah, it’s simply market talk, somewhat like the article here, the bears are on a prowl. There are bull traps and bear traps. Always have, always will. Some, on the wrong side of a trade, tend to be a wee bit sensitive. Understandable.
ck986 (#8)
Thumbs up to you! If there were more folks like you out there, this flipper will get drained on the monthly expenses over time. He might even have to sell at a later date in the 400’s, maybe 300’s. Who knows? Time is on your side.
BC,
I agree. Most flippers paid top dollar for the house and are counting every dime of costs and profits. Most long time homeowners with lots of equity have more wiggle room.
For example, my parents bought their house in the 70’s for $60k. Their mortgage is fully paid off. They are getting ready to retire and might sell to escape high property taxes. Whether they get $575k or $525k, it’s still more than they ever imagined.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Dec. leading economic indicators up 0.3% as expected
The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3% in December, the fastest pace since September, the Conference Board said Tuesday. “The latest data…is pointing to continued moderate growth or even a little acceleration,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the research group. Six of the 10 indicators increased in December, starting with building permits, jobless claims and money supply. The biggest drags were interest rate spreads and consumer expectations. There were slight downward revisions for the past two months. The leading index was cut to flat in November, compared with 0.1% originally reported. The leading index was revised down in October to a 0.1% drop from the previous estimate of a 0.1% gain. The coincident index rose 0.2% in December and the lagging index rose 0.9%.
My 2 cents re Capital One:
Bankrate.com gives Capital One FSB a five-star rating – its highest. Very few of the banks it rates get a 5.
No idea as to how reliable its ratings are.
>>What part of his post did I ruin??
read #15 again. you said if you bought within 3 years contact the problem loan dept. i can cite dozens of examples of people that bought within that timeframe that are up equity, some substantial.
Hey, check out NJMLS # 2701264 for seller in la-la land.
Very small cape in Bergenfield $750,000
also listed as land MLS # 2701267.
Taxes are 10k+ a year
Bought for $179,000 in 2000
What a crack smoker!
I mean, true, one would have to smoke crack regularly to buy a home in Bergenfield so maybe the price is justified?
Speculation of more job cuts at Alcatel-Lucent..
Up to 3,000 jobs may be on the line at Alcatel-Lucent
Alcatel-Lucent on Tuesday tried to temper news of a fourth-quarter sales and profit warning with the announcement of 200 million euros in additional cost-saving in 2007, prompting speculation that the telecommunications equipment giant could slash more jobs than initially planned.
At the time of their $11.6 billion merger, Alcatel and Lucent said the tie-up would yield annual cost synergies of 400 million euros in 2007.
…
UBS analysts said news of additional savings is “consistent with its view that headcount reductions could be closer to 12,000 than the stated 9,000.”
Richard Windsor of Nomura International also said the 200 million euros in additional savings would come from job cuts.
“We estimate about 2000-3000. I mean when your revenue is falling you always find somewhere where to cut down the work force,” he said.
From the AP:
WCI Communities Sees 4Q Loss
Luxury homebuilder WCI Communities Inc. said Tuesday that it will post a fourth-quarter loss due to higher-than-expected defaults in traditional and tower homebuilding, impairment charges and land option writeoffs.
…
The company said it sees impairment charges in a range of $75 million to $90 million and writeoffs of land options between $25 million to $30 million.
WCI said it defaulted 18 units from towers in the quarter and said additional defaults may be possible. It recorded 187 defaults in its traditional home market.
from 26
“UBS analysts said news of additional savings is “consistent with its view that headcount reductions could be closer to 12,000 than the stated 9,000.”
They were expecting to layoff 9K (10%) but now it is 12K. I wonder what percent of the layoffs will be in Lucent.
Friends,
This may be off topic, but can somebody please advise the best way to tackle this.
My wife’s car had an accident this morning while making a left turn. Car coming from opposite side had a right turn signal ON and still came straight.(This was at entrance ramp of 287, so there were two different entrance lanes for cars soming from different directions). Cops were not at the scene and showed up later, made the incident report and gave a ticket to my wife for ‘careless driving’.
a)Should we contest the ticket? If we do, and cop does not show up, will the ticket be invalidated(even though it involved an accident)
b)I am wondering If we should inform our insurance company yet or not. Will our insurance shoot up rightaway, or only after ticket takes effect? My insurance is up for renewal in a month.
Any answers to above questions are appreciated.
Bergenfield is falling apart,Dumont right behind it.
Bergenfield has been bad for 30+ years now
Anyone know what the story is behind the (very odd) move in the VIX this morning?
jb
#29, hope she’s doing ok.
in my experience (no NJ experience), when you contest, a lot depends on the judge and the evidence you provide
Any witnesses, pictures will help.
I think it takes a week or so before you can find out the points, fine,etc. It never hurts to contest.
my 2 cents.
From the AP:
NJ Transit head recommends 10 percent fare increase
The head of New Jersey Transit is recommending a 10 percent fare hike, which would begin on June 1.
The increase, the first since July 2005, would apply to both bus and rail fares.
It would close a budget deficit of about $60 million in the agency’s proposed $1.5 billion budget.
New Jersey Transit will hold public hearings on the proposal in February and March.
Outgoing NJ Transit executive director George D. Warrington made the recommendation to the agency’s board of directors at a meeting Tuesday morning.
Car coming from opposite side had a right turn signal ON and still came straight.
Under the law, you can’t trust a turn signal. It’s technically your wifes fault. Sorry.
Should we contest the ticket?
Yes, but instead meet with the prosecutor before the case, explain what happend, and ask for a ticket with no points. Obstucting a highway is a good one. You won’t win fighting it.
I am wondering If we should inform our insurance company yet or not. Will our insurance shoot up rightaway, or only after ticket takes effect? My insurance is up for renewal in a month.
Yes. The accident will go on the insurance. But if you are successful in taking a plea on the ticket at least that won’t go on the insurance.
I came across this news piece – you can get your power company to pay you if put power back into the grid:
http://ibtimes.com/services/pop_print.htm?id=17631&tb=bh
JB, can you imagine generating power using your fish tank and feeding it back to the grid ;-)
Bergenfield big decline in the 80’s, kind of stabalized, and than rapid descent over last few years.
Outrage anyone?
2-year bill: $480G to 10 school painters
The custodians aren’t the only ones cleaning up in the Jersey City School District, according to a review of district overtime records by The Jersey Journal.
Ten painters working for the state-run school district’s maintenance department were paid nearly a half-million dollars in overtime over the past two years. During that same time period, more than $12.6 million in overtime was paid out to district maintenance employees.
…
The bulk of the overtime paid out went to just two of the 13 painters – John Raido and Michael Toussas. Together, they took home $181,866.45 over the two years, or more than one-third of the total amount of overtime paid out.
The list also includes Richard Zadroga – the son of state-appointed district Superintendent Charles T. Epps Jr.’s former special assistant. He received $37,657.01 in overtime in 2005 and another $14,420.14 last year. The former school bus driver makes a base salary of $48,684 a year as a painter.
…
Last month, The Jersey Journal reported that a state audit found district maintenance workers were cleaning up in overtime payments, including one employee who got more than $163,000 in overtime during the past two years.
He received $37,657.01 in overtime in 2005 and another $14,420.14 last year. The former school bus driver makes a base salary of $48,684 a year as a painter.
Over 95K for being a painter (it sounds like he was a bud driver before – so he does not have 20 years of experience)…. Who need education??? Educated people usually do not get overtime pay. Anyways thats the problem right away – base salary of almost 50K!!!
JB, can you imagine generating power using your fish tank and feeding it back to the grid ;-)
Oh how I wish, these tanks consume a spectacular amount of electricity. At one point my big tank had 2,220 watts of lighting over it. Just the lights alone cost me somewhere around $75 a month in electricity. Factor in heating, chilling, pumps, and so on and that figure begins to approach the $150 mark.
jb
50k isn’t great money in New Jersey.
SM,
Plead not guilty and show up to court; you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Usually, cops offer to reduce tickets before going to the judge coz they are lazy to provide evidence, etc.
Take pictures of the crash area to replicate the scene accurately (don’t take pics on Saturday midday when there is no traffic!). In my first 2 years in the US when I went to grad school, I got 5 speeding tickets in upstate NY. I got all of them reduced to parking tickets with no points. And all cops showed up to court (they get paid OT for it) so don’t count on the cop not showing up unless its a beautiful Friday summer afternoon.
Have the cop/judge reduce the points if you can. Then tell them that you will go to defensive driving school immediately and when you show the court proof of taking the course, that they will reduce your ticket to 0 points, if possible. The aim is to not have the violation reported to your insurance company in any way, otherwise your insurance is going to skyrocket.
Good luck!
Great So I am going to cough up another $20 so that my train can be late and never make my connection..
Some bearish comments from DR Horton CEO:
D.R. Horton’s profit falls
During the conference call Tuesday, Chief Executive Donald Tomnitz said “we’re in the very early stages” of the current housing slowdown. “Most of these downturns are longer and deeper, and right now we don’t see anything on the horizon that would change that opinion,” the CEO said.
“We continue to see a very challenging industry environment for fiscal 2007,” he added.
syncmaster Says:
January 23rd, 2007 at 12:13 pm
50k isn’t great money in New Jersey.
They are if you getting them for no education required job with retirement benefits(state pension), health insurance and well paid overtime???
Just for the reference – a private company employee with bachelor degree would get may be 45K in NJ. That is with having to pay about 30% of health insurance costs, no unions to back you up – two weeks notice to retire, may some form of 401K, and no other benefits.
That is for going to colledge for 4 years and missing 4 years of earning 90K+/year as painter!!!
Corruption at it’s best. And if you are not their realtive what are the chances of getting overtyime or even this job??? NJ becoming more and more reminiscent of a thirld world country.
Just for the reference – a private company employee with bachelor degree would get may be 45K in NJ.
Al,
45k? I graduated from college almost a decade ago in New Jersey and I started over 50k.
A post-doctoral fellow at Rutgers gets about $40k/yr
Clot:
You should rethink your thesis on C. Although it would have been more timely when it was in the mid-40’s.
You get two Princes for the price of one.
Prince [Alwaleed bin Talal] & [Charles] Prince
You know there is plenty is story.
Disclaimer: if you use any of this information for investment purposes, you will be the sole cause of the instant vaporization of your investment. The damage to your wallet and clothes, as well as you investment losses, will not be reimbursed.
Speaking of power power..anybody notice light bulbs popping quite a bit this winter? Hubby has replaced two of the big globes, 4-5 regulars and and appliance bulbs in the past four weeks.
The paranoid part of me thinks that Mr. Power has turned up the volume a little to make up for the extremely warm weather.
Maybe there is a perfectly good explanation one of you electrical engineering folks can come up with.
Tin foil hat’s back in the closet now.
correction: You know there is plenty [in this] story.
From yesterday’s thread..
chicagofinance Says:
January 23rd, 2007 at 12:21 pm
listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners Says:
January 23rd, 2007 at 7:47 am
I have to chuckle, the people on this blog, most of whom have never bought/owned real estate, talking about the fundamentals of buying and owning. I bet most of these folks couldn’t and wouldn’t buy if RE was 50% lower. The rationale for remaining a crybabywannabe is simply a cover for other issues.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Chucklehead…..my wife and me….
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=1710092
Pat, I lost count of the number of bulbs I replaced in the last coupla months. Hmmm.. so it was not the cheap generic bulbs then!
Lol do you work for the State??
s far as salary – individual salary may vary – if you graduated with Computer science bachelors from Caltech/MIT you will get significantly better pay than average.
However survey data shows average salary for private company in NJ with bachelors is right around 40K.
SO I was rather generous. If you think everybody makes 100K in NJ wake up.
Average household income was something like 70K last year.
A post-doctoral fellow at Rutgers gets about $40k/yr
Postdoc = cheap labor for Universities.
Moren than 70% of homeowners in Bergen County make 100K or less a year, as per an article in last Sunday’s Bergen Record.
Al,
I am a CS grad, yes. But from a lowly state university in the great state of New Jersey. I actually learned a lot in college and owe a huge debt of gratitude to the taxpayers of this state. No sarcasm there.
Anyway back to the salary issue. You’re right, it has a lot to do with the skills you bring to bear and how many other people have them and how many employers need them. Supply and demand, IOW. I and all my peers (from the same lowly state university) started at well above 50, many years ago. FWIW. The broad brush works both ways, clearly. All my peers have household incomes of over 100k. How can any dual-income family not? Any IT guy with more than 5 years experience is near 70-90k by now. Add a second income at anything but minimum wage and you hit the magic 1-0-0. It ain’t no thing.
italics off?
ChiFi (48)-
The “two Princes”- a Wall Street version of Beavis and Butthead.
Funny how the talk has died down surrounding C’s recent- and highly suspicious- move upward on absolutely no news (then followed by more news further exposing them as the Keystone Kops of the banking world).
All disclaimers apply. Shorting this stock on my say so will expose you to all outcomes previously threatened by ChiFi…plus, Jack Bauer will personally tie you to a chair and slip a plastic bag over your head.
#56 bergenbubbleburst:
This is the reason why you have many fancy mortgage products that will allow you to buy a home that you can’t afford.
Now the financial press is buzzing with rumors of an impending C breakup into three stand-alones! Krawcheck’s move to janitorial now theorized as her helming an entirely new company.
Who’s helping these guys run this pump-and-dump scheme?
“During the conference call Tuesday, Chief Executive Donald Tomnitz said “we’re in the very early stages” of the current housing slowdown. “Most of these downturns are longer and deeper, and right now we don’t see anything on the horizon that would change that opinion,” the CEO said.”
JB’s post #44,
Does this guy read this blog??? He should be the spokesman for the NAR. He’s not even pretending to be dancing along the bottom. He realizes this floor has not been established. Just curious for the bulls response pertaining to this quote. How about it 2005 wannabees.
?????????????
Well points now It is my turn:
You’d be surprised thqt starting salaries almost did not grow for Bachelors in Computer sciences since 1990’s. (more demand for MS now).
Second – it is very simple: Wife works for 8$/hour wage, 40hours a week – bringing home Wopping 15360$/year BEFORE TAXES!!!. Once again if husband works for 40K/year it is only 55K/year – I believe you do live in a fantasy world with minimum wage bringing at least 30K/year??
Your problem is: successifull professionals usually do not marry minumum wage earners….
They usually do not hang out with mimnimum wage earners (when was the last time you hand out with McD/wallmart employee??) ask them about salaries. Educated sucsessiful professinals are very isolated group. I know it well.
Ask how much a middle aged secretary in private company makes – you’d be amazed how many of them have bachelor’s degree. Bank Tellers – most of them have bachelors degree’s. Shell I continue???
And the last one – when little babies are involved it is more beneficial financially to stay at home for one of the parents, than to work at a job which brings less that 35K/year.
At least it was in my analysis
– if husband makes decent salary: higher taxes and cost of childcare/commuting/work clothes will easilly be more that you salary after taxes.
In addition you add stress of being late to pick your kids up from childcare because of NJ traffic, extra costs from overtime stay at the childcare, and so on…..
If a family decide to have 2 kids two years apart – thats 8 years of not working for a woman – happens all the time.
I believe you do live in a fantasy world with minimum wage bringing at least 30K/year??
I didn’t say @ minimum wage. I said above it. You know these days even admin assts get paid 12-16 an hour. Who makes 8 anymore?
1-0-0 isn’t hard at all assuming no kids. Kids fukc it all up, I’ll grant you that :)
where is the crabby homeowner?
Are you stuck? Can’t get out? No fantasy price?
hehehehehehehehehehe
BLEED”EM DRY!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
(Can U feel the Pain?)
Bob – a HAPPY home(s)owner eventhough prices are dropping hard. Welcome to 2003 hehehhehehehe
NEXT STOP 2002. ALL ABOARD hehehehehehehehe
100 is not that hard even with one parent working at good position…
But the average household income in NJ was right around 70K last year, and having a painter making 90K/year and getting state benefits (I am sure they were) is ridiculous. I was not arguing that even a 100K a huge amount of money. I was merelly commenting in my post #39 on James post #38.
And the point being made is that for him position to get 90K is ridiculous. – let’s say you and your friend make the same money as regular painter -there is no extra dangers involved in painting schools, no toxic chemical/radiation/extreme conditions – at least I hope so , since we are sending kids to schools…
So in reality is: he makes more than you an your higly skilled/educated friends in private companies (after benefits) with no extra skills and better job sequirity – it is not like he is resurrected Picasso….
LOWER YOUR PRICES YOU GREEDY GRUBBING DREAMERS OR RIDE IT DOWN BABY….YOU WILL QUIT AND THROW IN THE TOWEL AT THE BOTTOM IF YOU REMAIN STUBBORN….WATCH….SAW IT HAPPEN IN EARLY 1990’S BUST.
HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE
Start chopping fast. jump the competition. You ain’t seen notttting yet…..the depths of misery are still ahead.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA (miserable moan)
Bob!
re #38 –
yes that’s ridiculous.
i mainly want to point out that not every employee of a school district necessarily gets the same state benefits (pension, health care, etc.) as teachers. The teachers’ union is just for teachers (administrators have their own), so it’s possible that a painter (who should in no way be making $90k/year how much painting could possibly be needed in a school to get that sort of pay??) isn’t getting phenomenal pension and benefits. i mean, it’s possible, it’s just not a given… just thought i’d point that out.
2002 just around the corner!
hehehehehhehe
mainly want to point out that not every employee of a school district necessarily gets the same state benefits (pension, health care, etc.) as teachers. The teachers’ union is just for teachers (administrators have their own), so it’s possible that a painter (who should in no way be making $90k/year how much painting could possibly be needed in a school to get that sort of pay??) isn’t getting phenomenal pension and benefits. i mean, it’s possible, it’s just not a given… just thought i’d point that out.
I agree valid point – so he makes the same as those highly educated professionals… (loosers)
however,
IF, he is in the union, you might be surprised.
#71 – absolutely.. but it’s not a given that he’s in the union getting those benefits. either way, it’s ridiculous though.
Anti-Trumo/Al That is exatly my point, if more than 70% of homeowners in prestigious affluent close to NYC Bergen Co make 100K or less a year, how can you possibly have crap box capes selling for 500k, with 8k to 10k or more in property taxes. It makes absolutely no sense,and as such prices will, and are correcting. And if that makes me a member of the LOD’s, than so be it.
xhb , housing leads the market rally today.
enough said, upgrade by Goldman sparks flame.
Not to worry
GS upgrade to neutral from sell, with major concerns still existing, and much to early at this point to say all is well. And on that the market rallies? Gee, it does not take much does it?
#73 bergenbubbleburst:
I think I agree with most folks here that prices will correct. I just think that it will be a long drawn out multi year process starting at the top end of the homes (i.e $1 Mil and above). Many people looking to buy in the sub 400K category will be dissapointed if they are looking to buy the house for $250K this year or any year.
By correction I don’t mean prices coming back to 2001 levels. By correction I mean coming back to 2001 + normal appreciation of about 5 or 6 % a year since 2001 + some market stagnation while fundamental catch up.
Then again when the 30 year mortage hit 6.5 % a couple of months back, there was a significant decline in mortage applications.
This shows how stretched people are that a .5% increase in mortage rate makes the difference between buying a house or not !
I still stick to my claim that we have not hit the bottom of housing yet. I don’t care about median prices etc. Three things that I watch for are anecdotal evidence from my own casual home search, supply of homes on the market and average DOM on the homes that I am looking for in my price range.
#74 pesche22:
I’d like to repeat. Don’t look at home builder stock price movents as a signal to buy or sell your house. These stocks are played by investors.
As a home buyer you want to make sure that you are making a sound financial decision when you buy as you will not have access to many of the hedging tools large investors in stocks have. Besides they can sell the stock if it looks shaky a lot faster than you can say NAR !
Thanks RentLord,RentinginNJ,dreamtheaterr for your explanation. You guys are awesome.
From USA Today:
Retirees up against debt
From 1992 to 2004, the percentage of households 55 and older with overall debt grew faster than the rate of the overall population. Those 75 and older packed it on most quickly: The average load for those households with debt shot up 160% to an average of $20,234 during this time, according to research by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a non-partisan group that studies economic security.
Among households 65 and older, the average amount of credit card debt more than doubled from 1992 to 2004, to $4,907, according to Demos, a New York think tank. Seniors’ debt levels are catching up to those of younger people.
Seniors in and approaching retirement — such as the oldest baby boomers — are carrying “debt loads that their parents would not have considered,” says Sally Hurme of AARP, the advocacy group for people 50 and older. “This does not bode well for financial health.”
Unmanageable debt is forcing some older people to delay retirement. It’s nudging others already out of the workforce back in. And it’s causing a record number of seniors to seek bankruptcy-court protection.
Seniors 65 and older represent the fastest-growing group seeking bankruptcy protection, though they made up only 5% of all bankruptcy filers as of 2001, the last year for which figures are available, according to research by Deborah Thorne, assistant professor at Ohio University; Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard Law School professor; and Teresa Sullivan, a former professor at the University of Texas at Austin.
As the first wave of the 79 million baby boomers begins retiring, debt problems are likely to swell. “People are having their cycle of expenses later in life,” because they’re postponing marriage and children, says Deanne Loonin, a staff attorney at the National Consumer Law Center. “They’re resolving expenses later.”
…
Amid the soaring housing market of recent years, those 55 and older, like others, have piled up record amounts of mortgage debt. They’ve refinanced their homes and cashed out equity. They’ve also turned to reverse mortgages, borrowing from home equity to receive a stream of income. From 1992 to 2004, the percentage of households 55 or older with housing debt rose to 36% from 24%, the Employee Benefit Research Institute found. The median amount of mortgage debt rose 63% during this time, to $60,000.
Rising mortgage debt poses a serious threat to seniors’ financial well-being, says Craig Copeland of the research institute, because they’re “putting at risk their most important asset, their home.”
Anti-Trumpu So where would you put that 2001 price today,with the 5% appreciation etc.
In other words in your opinion what would be a fair price today; I agree not 250K, but certainly not 450k IMHO.
I have to look in the Spring, for a number of reasons, so I am greatly interested in your thoughts. 20% of the list price is what I am thinking.
READ MY LIPS:
SPRING 2008: THE DEPTHS OF MISERY FOR GRUBBING DREAMERS ….YOU’LL REGRET NOT SELLING FAST.
Take the pain now or else….
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA (sick moan)
Bob
NO HOPE! NO IT AIN’T GOING TO SHOOT BACK AFTER THE DEPTHS OF MISERY 2008….DON’T COUNT ON IT.
BETTER ACT FAST AND JUMP BELOW THE COMPETITION FAST. THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM IS ON!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bob – a happy home(s)owner
2002 2001???? here we come.
All Bob is predicting is 25-30% off of fantasy Peak 2005 house prices ….no Bargains or end of world scenario.Just a little rationality back to re markets.
Bring it on fast! Get it over with.
hehehehehehehe
Ouch..
State senator sets sights on mortgage fraud
PHOENIX — Hoping to avoid a real estate crash, a state senator wants to incarcerate everyone from bankers and escrow agents to home buyers who commit mortgage fraud.
The proposal by Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, R-Chandler, would spell out in statute that it is illegal to deliberately misrepresent financial or other material information when buying a home and obtaining a mortgage.
A single offense could result in a 2 1/2 year prison term. And those who are involved in multiple schemes could face five years behind bars.
…
Tibshraeny said the frauds take several forms.
For example, a home buyer may arrange to get cash back from a purchase. That means the “sales price” of the house does not represent its true market value.
Similarly, there are situations where appraisals are inflated. In the case of refinancing, that means borrowers can get more money out in cash than the house may be worth.
And mortgage companies may inflate the income of would-be buyers to ensure they qualify for a loan, one they otherwise might not be able to afford.
“None of this was a problem when the real estate market was rising,” said Tibshraeny. But he said there are many areas where loans on homes are far more than their worth, a situation he said that could cause the collapse of real estate values throughout entire neighborhoods.
Tibshraeny said the innocent victims include people who have bought into these neighborhoods, paying inflated prices based on “comps,” meaning recorded sales of comparable homes. If these comps are fraudulent, then the new buyers have overpaid.
“James Bednar Says:
January 23rd, 2007 at 2:39 pm
From USA Today:
Retirees up against debt”
Prevent hangovers, stay drunk with the easy credit.
Yeah, pile on the plasma TVs, vacations, V8 SUVs, McMansions, etc. Keep complaining about outsourcing and that Chinese and Indians save 30% of their salaries.
Continue preventing hangovers, stay drunk….. while the US dollar vaporises.
Sorry, but until the marginal propensity to consume does not reduce, there is no easy way out for the US.
from Implode-O-Meter
>
http://www.roseloans.com/
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
ROSE MORTGAGE CORPORATION IS CLOSED.
85]
That’s great news.
JB or others,
Can California lenders ignore CSBS guidelines when offering loans to NJ customers? Note: CA has not yet passed guidelines while NJ already has.
Al,
You are right, of course.
All Bob is predicting is 25-30% off of fantasy Peak 2005 house prices ….no Bargains or end of world scenario.Just a little rationality back to re markets.
believe it or not I am lloking at couple of preperties which are already at 20% off 2005 comps, and I am thinkking that they are still too expensive, since tere are significantly bigger homes in the same neighbourhoods which are priced at only 10% more…
Not RE news, But today President Bush will urge that gasoline consumption be slashed by 20 percent.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070123/state_of_union.html?.v=15
I think NJ can definitely lead the way in many respect, but not sure if our politicians have guts.
From RoseLoans website – post #87:
Less Than Perfect Credit?
Rose Mortgage has loans for people with less than perfect credit.
• Late payments in the past, not a problem!
• We have flexible standards of lending
• To us, your future is more important than your past
believe it or not I am lloking at couple of preperties which are already at 20% off 2005 comps, and I am thinkking that they are still too expensive, since tere are significantly bigger homes in the same neighbourhoods which are priced at only 10% more…
BLEED”EM DRY. The bigger the drop the better.
It takes effort and persistence to overcome the re plague. Lots of lifestyles teetering on the edge right about now so the crabby and starving bunch going to fight it to the bitter end.
#80 bergenbubbleburst:
I don’t think 20% off as the rule of thumb will always work.
It all depends on the asking price. Some sellers do their research and ask a resonable price. Though this is the exception. For example one of the areas that I like is the Cinnamon Ridge area in Berkeley Heights. Around year 2000 homes in this area sold for in the $400s to $500s. So I think a fair price for these homes is $550K to 650K (2000 prices plus a 30% appreciation).
In 2005 pretty much every home in this area was going into contract above $1 Mil. In 2006 they started to sell in the upper $800s to $900s. This year I see many listings in the upper $700s. Based on my research I think that the unsold inventory will be availabie in the upper 600s to lower 700s by the end of this year. This is the time I plan to start making offers.
I guess you can say that it is approximately 20% off the asking price, but it all depends on what the asking price is. I think you need to do more research by finding what homes sold in your area in around year 2000 and try to come up with a price. It is not an exact science and a very personal decision.
I recently signed up for RealtyTrac to get forclosure information. I don’t plan to buy forclosed homes. It’s more to see stats of properties in defalult/foreclosure in the towns that I am looking at. What surprised me is that forclosure is not limited to Newark and Elizabeth and camden, etc, etc. Even in the so called premium towns many owners are facing forclose on expensive homes too. Guess buying more than you can afford can happen in all towns and income ranges.
D.R. Horton: Housing Slowdown in “Early Stages”
“Most downturns are longer and deeper (than people expect), and we are not seeing anything on the horizon to change that opinion.”
D.R. Horton Chief Executive Don Tomnitz, Jan 23, 2007
HEHEHEHEHEHHE
SORRY CRABBY BUNCH.
Had an interesting conversation with a realtor yesterday –
She said schools were given a letter rating – ranging from A – J or K depending on the amount spent per kid. She was a little fuzzy about the details and said it will be good to stay near the J / K rating (good schools)
Is this true? I never heard of this rating.
From NJ.com:
Union County budget calls for 5.7 percent tax hike
Union County taxes would rise 5.7 percent this year under a $415 million budget county Manager George Devanney proposed to freeholders today.
The increase, the county’s seventh since 2000, would send the average homeowner’s tax bill climbing to $1,297. All told, county taxes have climbed 60 percent in seven years.
County officials unveiled the proposed budget as lawmakers in Trenton grapple with reforming the state’s property tax system. After a series of hearings, Union County freeholders will vote in April or May whether to approve the budget.
nice buck made on the housing stocks today.
pesche,
XAU.
“What surprised me is that forclosure is not limited to Newark and Elizabeth and camden, etc, etc.”
Anti,
Foreclosures are all over the map, not limited to inner cities.
No big deal ,the RE market just hit 2008 prices in 2006….spring should be strong if intrest rates don’t uptic
yep, they were all over GDX, GLD, SlV
listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners Says:
January 23rd, 2007 at 7:47 am
I have to chuckle, the people on this blog, most of whom have never bought/owned real estate, talking about the fundamentals of buying and owning. I bet most of these folks couldn’t and wouldn’t buy if RE was 50% lower. The rationale for remaining a crybabywannabe is simply a cover for other issues.
dude, I wouldn’t be chuckling if I were you. WTF do you know? There are a number of us who owned and dumped our real estate like a hot potato. You are slowly going to find out why.
The three houses I sold from 2003-2005, including my personal residence, are now worth about $250,000 less, if they would even sell. So enjoy your deflating asset genius.
Cover for other issues? lol. You are very proud of owning your home, gives you a real needed ego boost to think how smart and clever you are. But I guess it’s not enough, and doesn’t make up for your obvious feelings of insecurity and inferiority, a need your feeding with obnoxious postings on blogs, targeting people who you believe are less fortunate and somehow inferior, and dying to get what you already have. But it’s a false superiority, and you are sadly misguided.
Stop embarrassing yourself and go get some help.
Sorry if I hurt your feelings.
Jay
“Sorry, but until the marginal propensity to consume does not reduce, there is no easy way out for the US.”
Dream,
It will take a serious adjustment and it will be painful. However, you are right unless there are serious structural changes, there is no way out.
#105
To add to Jay’s comments:
Let’s say that a person was a really smart investor and found a great investment opportunity. The last thing he wants to do is go online and share the idea with every other investor. Just imagine a really smart hedge fund manager comes up with a smart strategy to make money. Would you find him on the blog pleading/scolding others to follow his investment strategy????
On the other hand some one on a Ponzi scheme needs to get other investors to buy into the scheme and they are the ones typically who try to drum up interest to get people to buy into the scheme.
So obviously if someone is desperately trying to insult people into buying real estate, they most likely will lose money if real-estate continues to correct.
As I have said before, investors looking for long terms returns on realestate assets, i.e positive cash flow should welcome lower prices. On the other hand, newbie moron investors/speculators like what’s his name needs other’s to jump into the game to make money of new suckers.
Unfortunately for them, they will most likely be left holding the bag and taking the hair cut.
Mrb You are going to be bitterly disappointed come Spring grasshopper. Not only will there be no Spring market, inventory is going to explode.
In my premier Bergen Co. town 5 homes came on the market just yesterday, 5 in one day.We have the highest amount of inventory for sale at this time of year, since the early 90’s.
Oh and one last thing, you do know that our state is spiraling down into insignificane, being close to NYC will not save it.
Come back and see us in the. Spring grasshopper
This bear thread reminds me of those 3-D posters that were popular a while ago…if you stared at it long enough, you saw the hidden picture behind all the glitz.
Or maybe this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzgkFcOZEFE
That one might apply to GW suddenly getting into the butter business, too.
#64 You’d be surprised at all the minimum wage jobs out there, and also people working two jobs (with the part-time job typically being close to minimum wage as a second job).
What do you think sales clerks earn? Jobs in grocery stores? Maids? Warehouse workers? Those people are struggling to make ends meet and it’s why the average family income seems so low in this state. There are many, many people who would be thrilled to get $8 an hour.
Relatively few towns in NJ or other states have average household incomes over $100,000 per year.
Question fro any body who might know. I have a family member who has a real estate license, but is not affiliated with any real esate company, and has not sold a house etc. Can I use her to submit offers on houses that are for sale?
MS All those retail jobs, macy’s bloomingdales etc., all pay anywhere from 7.25 to a high of 8.50 an hour to start.
“Centex Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. homebuilder, reported a quarterly loss on expenses to write down the value of property and abandon options for land.”
“The net loss was $228 million, or $1.90 a share, for the fiscal third quarter ended Dec. 31, compared with net income of $329 million, or $2.49 a share, a year earlier, Dallas-based Centex said today in a statement. Revenue fell 6.8 percent to $3.28 billion.”
“It’s hard to stay in a stock like that,” Don Hodges, the co-manager of the Hodges Fund in Dallas, said in an interview. The fund, with $579 million in assets, has sold 145,000 Centex shares on concern over the company’s earnings outlook.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aF1utEwPntJU
#98 – Rentlord
I saw letter ratings for schools in the NJ Monthly school rankings edition. I thought the letters had something to do with income in each town rather than money spent. It’s been a while though, so I may be fuzzy. If you look at the NJ monthly website (link below) you can see the rankings for each high school. Click on an individual school and the 3rd line down marked “DFG” is the letter ranking.
http://www.njmonthly.com/topschools/hslist.lasso
#98 Rentlord
Also wanted to add what DFG was:
The DFG Model
The DFG is an index of socioeconomic status that is created using data for several “indicators” available in the decennial Census of Population. Socioeconomic status cannot be measured directly. Rather, the literature holds that it is a function of other, measurable quantities (traditionally, the basic three are income, occupation, and education). Therefore, the DFG is a composite statistical index created using statistical procedures, a “model” of socioeconomic status, and input data for various socioeconomic traits. Seven indices were developed from the census data as follows:
Percent of population with no high school diploma
Percent with some college
Occupation
Population density
Income
Unemployment
Poverty
To add to some earlier posts, yes flippers, I/O mortage people or anyone who got some off the wall mortage is pretty done for and will most likely take a nice hit.
But one thing I have noticed over the past few years, real bad area’s were “Comming up area’s” like a less than nice are that was supposed to get better according to realtors. Well hey if you bought in crappy areas in the passed few years and paid top dollar, chances are they are pretty done for and since prices are comming down, I really don’t think these up and comming areas are going to be getting better, probably going to get worse.
ENOUGH!!!!
Here is the solution: http://www.city-data.com/forum/new-jersey/39011-where-you-all-going.html
Interesting… Thanks Michelle!
Homer,
Haven’t seen you around these parts for a while.
Where have you been? Were your twins born?
jb #51,
Thanks for pointing out that video clip identifying this new real estate phenomenon.
It’s the crybabywannabebubblesitter!!!
What a ridiculous piece of garbage masquerading as journalism. Charlie Gibson should be embarassed and ashamed of his report.
Who is the analyst and what are her qualifications in RE? That aside, she proceeds to discuss why crybabywannabebubblesitting is NOT a good idea, and she is right – I’ve added some of my own reasons here:
1. Selling costs of current house, say 8-9% in NJ.
2. Moving costs to your rental.
3. Monthly rental expenditures that don’t contribute to your equity in the home you used to own.
4. Buying costs for the new house, whenever and if ever one decides it’s time to stop crybabywannabebubblesitting. Figure 3%.
5. Higher costs for your new mortgage.
6. Moving costs to the new house.
7. Personal costs to your marriage and family and self from the self imposed stress of moving – twice. Talk about foolish. Hey honey, let’s move the kids, change schools, child care, neighborhoods, friends, and houses for capturing a hoped for drop in the price of our house. Note the couple in this absurd piece have no children.
8. Add your reason here.
9. Add your reason here.
What a ridiculous way to try to capture and hold some equity in a $500K “POS Cape.” This also assumes these crybabywannabebubblesitters are disciplined enough to stash their money in a safe place, and not spend it on a trip to Fiji and a new BMW…
This is dedicated to all the crybabywannabes and crybabywannabebubblesitters.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
who asked you ?
CF..you ever been to Fiji?
“I’ve added some of my own reasons here:”
Listen,
It’s very simple, how about monetizing your profits and creating a lifetime of savings in one fell swoop??
“This also assumes these crybabywannabebubblesitters are disciplined enough to stash their money in a safe place, and not spend it on a trip to Fiji and a new BMW…”
You have it all wrong on that note. The ATM homeowner; hel’s,refinance,cash out and now upside down. But they drive a hummer.
LTTCBWBHO:
Take even a $100k equity hold on your $500k POS cape starting in Jan ’04, invest for 3 years in a nice little fund…let’s say it’s been in some middle of the road international equity fund for the past three years.
I’d say it’s been worth the move pain to double your money, especially if you buy back the same place for $50k less in ’07, which covers your expenses. BTW, 30 yr fixed 1/04 were at 5.8, currently 5.9 (bankrate) thought prolly more like 6.2, so that kinda blows out your fifth point.
I think Bush has given this state of the Union for 2 years straight now.
But, I do like that cut gas by 20% and cap malpractice lawsuits.
But, I sometimes get a whiff of socialized medicine. Yikes!
SAS
Just got back from a drive in Millburn.
ALOT of houses on the market. This spring is going to hurt alot of sellers.
Potential RE buyers… hold… scratch off 07. Its going to get pretty bad.
SAS
SAS,
Agreed if this market truly tanks it will be under the weight of inventory; The sooner that realtors understand that their business is in volume and not in obtaining the highest selling price the better off everyone will be. The realtor community should be counseling potential sellers and encouraging price reductions to increase sales volume.
ADA,
Well put. A decent number of sellers are waking up to this fact and acting appropriately.
The sellers who do not smell the coffee will be poleaxed in short fashion.
Pat Says:
January 23rd, 2007 at 8:51 pm
CF..you ever been to Fiji?
Only as far as Hawaii :P
I don’t want to brag too much, but with the freed up money invested [not the down payment, but the incremental cash] we’ve probably managed to have the option of Hunter’s mom staying home with him if she wants.
Gives the WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!! a very different and strikingly positive connotation :) :) :)
scribe
The twins are still brewin in the wifes belly. They are due June 5 but will prolly comming in the begining of May.
I have been following the market here and there but houses are still so overpriced.
People are still being greedy grubbers.
I have seen houses sit on the market for over 250 days and they wont budge on there price. Its interesting how people still think there is going to be some sort of mirical recovery in the housing market. Job growth is declining, people are constantly leaving the state, yeah we all know we have the highest property tax etc and less and less people are moving into this state. But of course there will be a recovery from this “slump” in the market. I have said it before and I will say it again, THE HOUSING market is not going to pickup and it WILL go close to 1999-2000 price levels. The longer people wait and try to stick to these high prices the worse the end result of this crash will be.
Keep telling yourselves I am wrong and we will see that this will be the worst crash in History.
If a home can go from 127,000.00 in 2001 to 330,000.00 in 2006 than it can damn sure go from 330 back down to 127 price range. If this bubble never happened the market may not have recovered from the last bubble in the early 90’s so anyone who paid some Jidiotic price may either have to take a big loss or live in there home for the next 50 years to break even.
I’m sorry I forgot to copy shortcut for the question – but the answer is to have a valid real estate license you must be affiliated even if it is with a refferal agency, you must hang your license to keep your license. So your relative has got to be affiliated. They may not be a member of the MLS or a local board ( only if they are with a reffering agency) but they should be able to write up your offer, if……. they have shown you the property. That’s the most important factor.
KL
Jay #105,
Certainly not taken personally.
I stand by what I say, most of the people here have never owned RE, but they certainly have advice to give on the topic. That’s fine, it’s a free blog and a free country.
Your posting infers beliefs about my status and beliefs about others in this blg., with no basis in fact, but that’s okay, too. Problem is you know I am right.
Welcome to the realm of crybabywannabebubblesitters. Enjoy your stay.
Can you define WTF?
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
The passion, vitriol and vindictiveness towards existing owners and sellers on this site is depressing. Question is, why the mean spirited nastiness? Must be the belief that if enough scream THE SKY IS FALLING loud enough, it will fall.
Meanwhile, the crybabywannabes cry,
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Can anyone give me some info on MLS # 2310126 (from gsmls.com)? What did it sell for? The buyers have already moved in and the for-sale signs are gone so I assume it is sold.
Bank of America results
http://www.axcessnews.com/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=12806
“Lending margins within the banking industry have declined and were not for the high-interest earned from Bank of America’s MDNA [MBNA?]credit card business unit the bank’s results would not have been as good. Still, yesterday Standard & Poor’s reported that it expects consumer debt to rise this year and the rate of home loan foreclosures to increase, which was not a good sign of things to come for the banking industry after it’s aggressive mortgage financing in the first half of last year while the real estate boom was still underway.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/crudes-retreat-figures-prominently-interest-rate/story.aspx?guid=%7BDF1D3B11%2DB555%2D4E5E%2D8785%2D37DC5A616D42%7D
The sharp drop in oil prices does not mean that lower interest rates are just around the corner. If anything, higher interest rates lurk, this time around.
..
The sooner the markets get in sync with Fed thinking, the less of a shock they’ll experience if the central bank should decide to raise rates down the road.
If a home can go from 127,000.00 in 2001 to 330,000.00 in 2006 than it can damn sure go from 330 back down to 127 price range.
Your numbers sure do sound familiar. I’ve been gathering some sales data in my neighborhood, most of it from 1998 to 2006. The increases are interesting. These are averages rounded to the nearest 5k.
1998 – 120k
1999 – 160k
2003 – 255k
2004 – 260k
2005 – 370k
2006 – 330k
All these prices are on identical units (this is a condo complex). And I’m not sure why I can’t find any sales data for this particular model between 1999 and 2003.
If I were to bet, I’d bet on a return in this complex to 2003-2004 prices + inflation. It’s the 2005 appreciation that was truly out of wack. Locally speaking.
Sync,
MLS# 2310126 is still in A* (Pending/Attorney Review).
jb
sync:
Those numbers are almost exactly the change in POS capes in my neighborhood over here in PA.
But the new listings are now under $300 for some of them for ’07.
I also think, as Homer does, that the drop is going to dip to ’99. Not wishing ill-will, just considering those folks who bought and had no business buying, and the resulting increases in inventory created for these “investors” and what will happen to prices as the extra inventory sits.
MLS# 2310126 is still in A* (Pending/Attorney Review).
JB, thanks. I’ll stop asking about that property now, lol. It is very strange, the buyers have settled in, they’ve moved in all their furniture and the for-sale signs are gone. I guess they have some kind of an understanding.
syncmaster: I think there is more there, that sounds really weird, that the new “buyers” would be allowed to move in, before closing.
rhymingrealtor: Thanks for the information. i belive she is affiliated with a realtor, kind of like having her license “parked”, but I will find ou this week end.
if not as you say she can write up the offers. Thanks again.