Preliminary January sales/inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in..
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only January sales, 2000 to 2007 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The numbers:
October
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2570
2005 Sales: 2280
2006 Sales: 1867
(Down 18.1% Year Over Year)
November
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2330
2005 Sales: 2135
2006 Sales: 1858
(Down 13.0% Year Over Year)
December
Average Sales (2003-2005): 2671
2005 Sales: 2269
2006 Sales: 2050
(Down 9.7% Year Over Year)
January
Average Sales (2003-2006): 1927
2005 Sales: 2013
2006 Sales: 1703
2007 Sales: 1583
(Down 7.2% Year Over Year)
NJMLS data to be added shortly.
Caveat Emptor!
James (aka Grim)
Housing is in the free-fall mode with regards to sale, avalanche mode with regards to inventory and flatline mode prices……
What do you think wil cave in first??
I think there will be small raise in sales next 3 month and huge raise in inventory…
It is very interesting – I was looking at the same 6 houses for sale for a years now. 3 of them were vacant for a year…..
How much is Vacant Home Insurance (assuming thses houses do not have mortages on them – their expenses are only Insurance, taxes, and utilities… ???
AI looked at two of them, and the owners turned off heat for winter…..
There was a bit of damage to the interior of the homes.
But prices are the same as year ago.
I’m not sure I’d describe the current market as being in freefall. We’re clearly past the “freefall” period with sales sitting significantly under peak. Compare the Red and Yellow lines in the first graph.
If we look at the current trend in sales, it’s clear that the rate of decline is beginning to slow. Comparing sales volume year over year for January, it’s clear that volumes are the closest they’ve been in a year.
Now, I’m not trying to make any projection here for what is going to happen to sales in ’07, only pointing out that the downward trend has shown some flattening over the past four months.
jb
four months or winter months, lol
Looking backward, carve a slice out of December (weather) and layer it on Janaury and February
grim: your first plotted graph has no December
Fixed, thanks.
jb
I’m not sure I’d describe the current market as being in freefall. We’re clearly past the “freefall” period with sales sitting significantly under peak. Compare the Red and Yellow lines in the first graph.
My Fault – I need to start reading the legends on the graphs better
It is not a free fall – sales are actually increasing…
four months or winter months, lol
Winter month – in the houses it was really cold inside -colfder that outside, and wall were starting to buble – not the wall paper but actuall walls, in addition window seals were quite cracked and sticking out…. one house developed significant roof leak, with water traces reaching the floors in the attick (3rd bedroom).
I have a question – sales look like they are flat to increasing on the first graph, but on the inventory/sales overlay graph, sales look to be heading down. Why is that?
NJGal Says:
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:03 pm
I have a question – sales look like they are flat to increasing on the first graph, but on the inventory/sales overlay graph, sales look to be heading down. Why is that?
The first graph ends in December while the inventory/sales overlay (last) graph ends with this past January.
So if you look at the last graph you’ll see sales were up in December, matching the first graph.
Hope that wasn’t too confusing…
Rich
#7
Don’t people realize that they can’t just turn everything off and leave a house, winter or summer. From my experience with my parents going to Florida for the winter, you have to leave the heat on even if you empty the pipes for just the reasons you stated. In the summer, you can get mold growth in a closed up house. Yuk!
Got it Rich, thanks.
Question: In the overlay chart, you see that every year the lowest point for number of sales seem to comin in March. Any reason why is so?
Is it because closing takes about 3 month? So, least number of houses go into contract in December, causing March to be having fewest sales.
If that is the case, is there any way to plot houses going Under Contract. That would be leading indicator.
In the overlay chart, you see that every year the lowest point for number of sales seem to comin in March. Any reason why is so?
Typically, March sales are houses or units that went under contract in January and February which would be the seasonally slow part of the year due to weather.
But look for a big bump (compared to last year) in this March due partially to sellers finally lowering their prices and the very mild weather we had in January.
Rich
P.S. And yes, also December.
Do we have any idea on how many houses went in Jan 2007 compared to Jan 2006?
Here’s info from NJMLS for Bergen County.
The first numeber is units Sold and the second number is units Under Contract
SFH
2006 370 418
2007 372 482
Condo, Co-op & Townhs
2006 155 162
2007 162 193
SFH, Condo, Co-op & Townhs
2006 525 580
2007 534 675