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Nonfarm payrolls due out at 8:30.
jb
Commentary/Perspective on the American addiction to consumerism and conspicuous consumption?
Goods worth $6,400 stolen from car outside Parsippany gym
Among the items reported stolen:
• A $500 pair of Prada gloves and a $400 pair of Prada sunglasses
• A $400 Marc Jacobs cosmetics bag with $200 in makeup inside
• A $500 Louis Vuitton wallet, $300 Louis Vuitton day planner and a $200 Louis Vuitton card case
• $300 Gucci shoes
• A $350 Blackberry and a $350 Apple iPod
• A Metrocard for the New York City subway system stored with $310
• Six credit cards and a checkbook
• $300 in cash
—————
I’m not trying to pick on or point out the misfortunes of others. I’ve had my own car stolen, and took a significant loss because of it. It’s just that this piece is almost surreal in the way it tallys those items like a luxury brand grocery list.
I think that my issue is with the writer of this piece…
Why go through and list out the brand of every item. I guess it’s not really news if some woman’s Target purse, Lenscrafters glasses, and Payless Shoes were stolen from her 1998 Honda Civic?
Why stop there? The writer should have gone all the way and listed the color and sku of all those items as well. Maybe even add the nearest store at which to acquire them?
jb
Besides cars and my wife’s engagement ring I do not believe we own many items worth more than 300$…. OK may be her old violine (I hope one day we will discover it is Stradivari’s)..
I guess, thats why nobody ever broke into my car….. Tape’s player is not as desirable as it once was, I guess. Even with my trendy CD player adapter…
Hey I know…. This lady was a renter, who wasted all her money on luxury items.
Nothing wrong with luxury items. Personally, I appreciate good quality and fine workmanship, whether it be in a scotch, a wristwatch, furniture, a good meal, a car, a suit, etc. I know it probably sounds like a diatribe against luxury items, but that isn’t the case at all.
jb
What a nice way to discuss RE and celebrate JB’s Blog that got all of us coming here pretty much daily, by coming to NJ RE Report Network Event.
Please sign up for the Networking event (aka Cult Gathering) for some nice lively fun & discussions (along with Rituals).
http://www.evite.com/app/publicUrl/skgala@yahoo.com/njrereport
If many people sign up, we can try to get some exciting folks come as well. I dont think David Lereah will be in town though :-)
PS: Sorry for repost. I imagine lot of folks will be reading this thread.
From the Financial Times:
Subprime lenders act to cut defaults
The giant US subprime mortgage business is displaying a new-found caution with lenders tightening loan standards and cutting ties to overly aggressive brokers, delegates to an industry conference were told this week.
The American Securitisation Forum’s annual conference in Las Vegas took place as an index that measures the health of bonds backed by subprime loans, which are made to borrowers with tarnished credit histories, flashed new warning signals.
The index, which measures the spread between the London interbank offer rate and the yield on subprime mortgage bonds rated BBB-minus reached a record 640 basis points on Wednesday and was trading at 625bp yesterday. The spread has widened by about 150bp in the past week.
Mortgage delinquencies in the US have reached their highest rate since the 2001 recession, and could rise further in 2007, says Moody’s Economy.com, and loans made last year to borrowers with weak credit histories have been particularly troublesome.
“Originators have been lulled into complacency by the strong performance of the mortgage market in the last few years,” said Elizabeth McCaul, partner at consultancy Promontory Financial Group and former New York superintendent of banks. “But that performance was more often a function of strong house price appreciation than prudent risk management.”
While there is nothing wrong with luxury items, I just can not ever imagine myself to buy 300$ day planner and 200$ card case….
I guess if you are higher society you will be judged in part by what you own, they way you dress, house you live in and so on.
If I will ever make enough money so extra 5000$ will not matter, well than I will be all for luxury items…
It is always funny to me when some of our friends would say something like – She got Louis Vuitton Bag for her wedding/birthday…….
It is just a bag, it is not worth talking about.
I guess thats why my wife hates shopping for my birthdays – she would like to get me something, and I usulally do not need anything, or do not enjoy owning more stuff.
P.S. Cars, Houses and Tools are not stuff :)
The problem with society today is most people don’t have self control when it comes to materialistic possesions. Its amazing, I have a lot of friends who are in their 30’s (who make 6 figures..) they have the newest Ipod, biggest plasma, newest honda pilot…however if you ask them how much they have in their 401k or for their kids college education, they look at you like you have 3 heads….
I’m not saying you can’t splurge once in awhile, but if you don’t want to work because you HAVE to in your old age, its better to be frugal now….
Nonfarm payrolls come in weather than expected, unemployment rate increases to 4.6%..
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Jan. nonfarm payrolls up 111,000 vs 170,000 expected
U.S. Q4 nonfarm payrolls up revised net 104,000
U.S. Jan. unemployment rate 4.6% vs 4.5% in Dec.
U.S. Jan. factory jobs down 16,000; services up 104,000
U.S. Jan. construction jobs up 22,000
U.S. Jan. average workweek falls to 33.8 hours vs 33.9 Dec
To my Renters in the House MAKE SOME NOISE
To the guys spending less than 10 percent on their motgages MAKE SOME NOISE
IF YOU A FB HOLLLA!
Fort Lee and Gold COast is it gonna fall?
Land of the Beemer and Benz overall
Build a shiny condo NYC view
Charge a million dollar but the buyers coming thru
Live up in fortlee in a co-op shack
Would have bought a trailer but the honeys would think it wack.
Tear down a good house build two side by side
charge as much for one house perganiteel inside
I look around and all they all got the money
Benz and a Lexus nice clothes for the honey
Prices still 600K for a half a house
hoes these mutha’s doing it I dont want to grouse
Guess when I move up it aint gonna be here
pay more than half a million my neighbors I no wanna hear
Tell me how they do it, I really wanna know
Or am I just too sutpid to know where the money tree grow
http://www.michael-hudson.com/audio/061208HudsonRealEstates.mp3
http://www.michael-hudson.com/
Give it sometime, it is a large mp3.
-Sapiens
I was listening to some old Jack Canfield tapes this morning on the way to work.
Two out of three Americans have low self-esteem.
This situation has probably gotten only worse in the last ten years.
When making a comparison (as most do) between ourselves and others, 90% of the time, we come out on the bottom. We tend to compare ourselves to the “best in class” so we will always come out on the bottom.
Repeat over and over. Repetition imprints brain wave function through nerve flow, therefore, the process will automatically flow, along with the associated feelings. Practice makes perfect, or in this case, perfect sense of inferiority.
We remember 10% of what we hear.
We remember 50% of what we see.
We remember 95% of what we practice/do.
Now apply this to marketing and sales.
Voila, the list JB printed. I don’t know if even the reporter realized why he/she printed the names of the “designer.”
“Starbucks Corp., the world’s largest coffee-shop chain, plans to open 2,400 new stores this year, or more than six stores a day on average. At that pace, the company would be hiring as many as 350 new employees each day.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayK3KowLVux8&refer=home
From the Jersey Journal:
MINDING THE COUNTY’S BUSINESS
Hudson County is coming down off its historic job growth of the 1990s, but the local economy is still producing jobs at a faster rate than the rest of the state, said noted Rutgers University economist James Hughes, who heads the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.
The professor delivered that message during the annual Hudson County Chamber of Commerce meeting, which was attended by more than 100 members of the local business community last week at Casino in the Park.
Hughes noted that New Jersey created 38,000 high-paying, professional level jobs during the 1990s, mostly in the financial sector. Typically, Hudson County accounts for six percent of job growth across the state, but during this period the county accounted for 45 percent of the growth, Hughes said.
In the information sector, the county accounted for 45 percent of the jobs created during the 1990s, Hughes added.
The first decade of this century, however, has not seen the same job growth, Hughes said. For example, Hudson County saw 126 percent job growth in the 1990s, compared to just 18 percent since 2000, said Hughes.
In order to spur the local economy once again, Hughes urged New Jersey and Hudson County officials to create more affordable housing, while taking advantage of the cost comparison of locating businesses in Hudson County versus New York City.
In addition, he urged New Jersey officials to create a climate that is less “hostile” to new business.
JB
Thats the deal its all about the stuff, and the name on the stuff. As long as the name/manufacturer provides value I am ok with it.
But how are a pair of 10 dollars to make ( in China by slave labor ) sunglasses worth 400?
I’m going to tell you as a young man, I like the “high end girl” look when out girlwatching. But I can’t usually afford to take them home.
Plus and this is for guys and girls, when you have all the goods when you like 18-24 then whats there to step up to?
YOu riding in a leased Benz or a high end Lexus at my age you look pimping but what the heck do you take it up a notch too?
I’m more annoyed I bought into this for a while. Meanwhile there a guy riding his bike (with pedals) in 10 degree weather while I am compaining that I am 27 and not riding in a BMW or Benz yet.
Nothing wrong with luxury items…I want my fiancé to have nice things (just not overboard things). Save some, spend some is the way to go.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/02/news/economy/paul
son.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007020207
Paulson puts the kabosh on Social Security reform any time soon. My, he’s the positive thinker, isn’t he??? Kinda has the next two years pegged.
Nancy should take a stand just to stir the pot. I’d be pissed.
About stolen items –
I think the victim is lying.
Just imagine how much tax deductions you can claim with a police report as documentation!
Plus, if they every find a pair of Prada gloves, he/she may stake a claim on it ;-)
JB and all,
Re post #2
I think I can provide a little insight here, having spent 15 years in the newspaper industry. First, that laundry list of luxury items comes straight from a police report and the person who wrote it is probably as green as they get.
At the editor’s desk, the person who read it is probably new, lazy, smitten, knows there is a big hole to fill, or was as taken with the consumerism as JB. The smart money is on new or lazy.
Now if someone stole a case of Preparation H… (One of my all time favorite police reports.)
Oops sorry about the spelling and grammar on that, it’s a passionate thing that gets me going.
When you have a room full of soon to be RN’s and they are all talking about not how they going to help people but how much money they are going to be making.
J “When I get my Escalade”
T “When I be making that 50 an hour perdiem”
And I feel like I am from a different planet with my ideas about saving money, paying off my student loans, and helping others.
I never wanted to be rich, and somewhere along the way I got lost. But I can tell you a large portion of my cohort especially the ones in their late teens and early 20’s it is all about the monthly payment.
I posted this yesterday but it was buried way down at the bottom. I also have new info to add.
Some may remember my post a couple of days ago about a unit it my townhome development that is on the market with no sign. Well, it turns out it is a short sale (though I still don’t think that explains the lack of a sign). My husband I went to look at it tonight. We were curious because the price dropped from $349k to $315k. We are thinking about putting in a lowball offer, just to see if we could get the seller (and the bank holding their mortgage) to bite. A small 2-bedroom unit in the development recently went for $285k and a larger 2-bedroom is listed at $315k right now. This place is a 3-bedroom.
Just called the tax assessor’s office this morning to find that the property was last purchased in September 2005 for $420,000, so the list price is exactly 25% off the peak 2005 price. I am seriously considering a bid.
AK
Even Punxsutawney Phil thinks the spring RE market came early in the Northeast..
Punxsutawney Phil predicts early spring
new pair of hands pulled Punxsutawney Phil from his stump this year, so it was only fitting that the groundhog offered a new prediction.
Phil did not see his shadow on Friday which, according to German folklore, means folks can expect an early spring instead of six more weeks of winter.
Since 1886, Phil has seen his shadow 96 times, hasn’t seen it 14 times and there are no records for nine years, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. The last time Phil failed to see his shadow was in 1999.
More than 15,000 revelers milled about in a misty snow waiting for the prediction, as fireworks exploded overhead and the “Pennsylvania Polka” and other music blared in the background.
Well a fitting article for Luxary in RE
The Most Expensive Suburbs by City
by Maya Roney
Friday, February 2, 2007
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/102345/The_Most_Expensive_Suburbs_by_City
Old Westbury, N.Y., on Long Island, has an index of 498.1. Property tax rates run as high as $26.2 (Piney Point Village, Tex.) per $1,000 of home value.
Surprisingly, not all ultra-expensive suburbs feature gaudy estates and celebrity neighbors. Take Rolling Hills, Calif., an equestrian-oriented community of less than 2,000 residents just 30 minutes from downtown Los Angeles.
Rolling Hills is a gated, strictly residential community on the Palos Verdes Peninsula featuring white ranch homes with ocean and city views on spacious two-acre lots surrounded by three-rail white fences. There are no traffic lights, and there are more horse trails than roads. Residents work, shop, and go to school in surrounding towns.
“We call ourselves the only gated city in America,” says Bill Ruth, a realtor with Keller Williams in the Palos Verdes area. “We’ve been playing off that one for a while.”
The median home price in Rolling Hills is about $2 million, with sales last year ranging from $1.5 million to $3 million. Although the median household income in the community is $256,944, the highest on our list, there aren’t many $10 million mansions here. No flashy Hollywood types, either: Most residents are business owners, doctors, or attorneys, and the wildest event you are bound to attend is a children’s party or a Little League game.
Brandywine Bargain
Well-off folks who want to live large but still enjoy a good deal (and who doesn’t?) may consider relocating to Philadelphia’s priciest suburb, which happens to be in the inconspicuous state of Delaware, amid the open spaces and sprawling golf courses of Brandywine Country.
In fact, Greenville, Del., buoyed by Delaware-based chemical giant DuPont (DD), is also a commuter community for workers in Wilmington, Washington, and New York. Houses in Greenville range from DuPont family-owned colonial estates to 10,000-square-foot McMansions to houses commissioned by the Texas oilmen who came to the area when DuPont acquired oil and gas company Conoco in the early 1980s. Today the community’s residents are of a mix of old and new money, with many lawyers, bankers, and businesspeople employed by the local industry.
“There are some trust-fund babies around, but the majority are working types,” says Wendy Bunch, a local agent with Brandywine Fine Properties Sotheby’s International Realty.
While $5 million homes are not at all uncommon in Greenville, the median price in the area is just $805,300. Property taxes run at a rate of $8.17 per $1,000 of home value, and the cost of living is less than twice the national average. And forget about sales tax—there isn’t any in Delaware.
I definitely am going to see RE properties in Greenville, DE. It may be worth getting out of NJ and moving to this town
Can anyone tell me how long it typically takes to get pre-approved for a mortgage (not pre-qualified, but actually pre-approved). If we put in an offer on this place I want to make it appealing as possible. Being pre-approved for a conventional mortgage with 10% down should help.
AK
Stupid Question: Is that invite for the njrereport gathering open to anyone?
I found a place for all of us right in Manhattan :)
>>
Ocean real estate: The next boom?
With land getting so crowded, the age-old fantasy of sea-based living is becoming reality.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/19/magazines/business2/ocean_real_estate.biz2/index.htm?postversion=2007020205
Stumbled upon an article last night from last April re: the local housing market.
realtor after realtor argued that there was no bubble and that prices would be up in the high single digits for the year.
it’s easy to get caught up in the day to day and forget how far we’ve come in just a short time
now you’ve got realtors tentatively suggesting that sellers are the problem, that’s there’s widespread overpricing.
They are just as far behind the curve now as they were then
AK,
Similar story,
Countrywide is holding a REO property in the Murray Hill complex in New Providence.
http://www.countrywide.com/purchase/f_reo.asp
MLS#: 2351163 – 39 Murray Hill Square
OLP: $445,900
LP: $431,900
DOM: 53
Was purchased on 5/04 for $410,000, my guess is that there was a subsequent cash-out refi to bring the mortgage principal much higher.
While some might find it hard to lowball a cash-strapped homeowner facing foreclosure, this one is already through foreclosure and owned by the lender (REO – Real Estate Owned). Nobody to upset, no emotion involved, just you and the bank.
jb
gary & all folks:
Invite is open to all. So please sign up asap, so we can try to reserve a nice place.
Ours is a consumer-driven economy. The pressure to define yourself by what you own is incessant. It’s always been this way, except maybe the summer of 1967 when it was cool to live in a commune. Blink and you’d’ve missed it (if you were even born then).
The discipline to remain frugal in the face of media bombardment to spend is hard work. Good habits start early. Pare your expenses to the bone and live below your means. After awhile it becomes a habit and will pay dividends in the future.
JB..enjoy:
http://moviethemes.net/music/G/groundhog-PA-polka.mid
Maybe Depeche Mode will do a remake someday.
#27 JB:
Looked at this property on realtor.com. comments from broker “Spacious 2 bedroom bank owned end unit with 2 full baths. Must see!! walk to NYC transportation, hardwood floors, Being sold “AS IS” with buyer responsible for all muncipal certs including C/O.”
2, bed 2 bath for $431K in as-is condition? Seriously, these people are living in a cave !!
I once got a gift certificate to Louis Vuitton for Christmas.. It was $500 dollars. I sold it for value to a 20 something. I work in maufacturing and I know the price of goods and workmanship of that crap I just couldn’t see wasting that amount of money on PLASTIC that will fall apart after a couple of years of use.
I know so many girls who buy expensive purses, jewelry, etc. I used to be one (and still am occasionally). But when it’s no longer Dad’s money and the new bf/fiancee/husband puts the smackdown, well, you wake up – using your own money and no credit cards can wake a person up quick. Also, my husband always made sure to make his point that he couldn’t care less about shoes, purses, clothes and the like, didn’t care about that stuff and liked me for me. He’s a relaxed guy and has never cared what people thought about him, which I think is rare. But it’s rubbed off on me.
Sadly, I think a lot of guys and girls don’t have the esteem themselves to NOT care about those things so they don’t discourage that in their significant others, because it’s much easier to tell yourself that you’re great b/c you have a nice car or clothes than it is to take a good hard look at yourself and really see what’s going on.
2, bed 2 bath for $431K in as-is condition? Seriously, these people are living in a cave !!
As-is because it is REO, it’s already gone through foreclosure. I’m sure the lender doesn’t want to play games or make repairs, just unload the property.
jb
Grim (2)-
They can buy all that stolen crap on EBay…the 21st Century’s fence to the upwardly-mobile.
Another REO in Kinnelon that I thought was interesting.
MLS# 2320682 – 11 Undercliff in Smoke Rise.
OLP: $630,000
LP: $579,900
DOM: 139
Prior to foreclosure it was listed:
MLS#: 2070673
OLP: $649,900
DOM: 230
It’s currently pending, however. It’ll be interesting to see what the buyer paid. Anywhere in the 500-525k range would be a steal given the recent comps. The place is, however, a real wreck and needs considerable work.
jb
I think it depends on how you are raised. My parents never footed the bill on that stuff. My clothes were from Kmart. If I wanted a CB jacket or a Lacoste shirt(big when I was growing up). We had to get a job and buy it ourselves. We have discussed this alot on this board.Parents really need to teach kids the value and responsibility of money. I went to private school also where we wore uniforms. Didn’t really have to compete with other kids..I think if we can afford it I would send my kids to private school just for that reason.. More focus on academics then what your fellow student is wearing.
U.S. payrolls rise 111,000 in January / Services sector generates gains
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
… Although the economy slowed in the second and third quarter, the labor market remained tight. Fed officials described this as a puzzle. However, Friday’s report suggests that the weakness may just have been delyed. …
It’s no puzzle. Services doesn’t pay squat to what those roles traditionally paid & can’t lift the economy using old school numbers to figure out what’s going on.
… In January, most of the job growth came from the services sector.
Service-producing industries added 104,000 jobs, including 31,000 in education and health services and 25,000 in professional and business services. Retail added 4,000 jobs. …
If your job isn’t outsourced it’s repositioned, rebranded, recoded to (drum roll) services: IT, HR, Finance, Accounting, Marketing, etc. Services is salary, not hourly, so there’s no OT that can be milked, but you sure as hell can work the long hours because you’re salary. Traditional 4 year degree, middle class, back end operations jobs are now ‘services’, & lots of management positions are now ‘services’.
The middle class isn’t going away, it’s just expanding, especially now that minimum wage & off-shore salarys are catching up.
Yes, services roles are paid well enough that one can afford flat screen tvs, SUVs & a few can move to NC or TX & afford a McMansion but once saturated there’s no wiggle room to prop up future business.
Here’s an analogy: The top is the neck of the goose & it’s getting thinner despite a big appetite. The bottom of the goose, feet included, are all becoming one big tubby lump. Soon another golden egg won’t be able to get thru that sphincter… off with it’s head? Or a diet for the mouth?
… An apathetic wobble is more like it.
TGIF!
PS. Don’t fret services industry! Uncle Sam’s gotta plan! We’ll prop you up soon with new visiting worker programs. Our great nation always uses an effective work force to build a pyramid *cough*scheme*cough* similar to the Egyptians did but now we put it on a dollar! I’m not saying slavery, heavens no! We learned that lesson after the birth of the nation. Think more along the lines of the poor europeans doing the jobs Americans didn’t want to do, like building railroads or digging canals… now it’s an information highway but you’re all too busy worried about who’s building your house or mowing your lawns to notice & one day your grandchildren will repeat by fighting for their rights.
… More repeats than the history channel: Virtual History!
Forget a condo-shack buy a mobile home on the water.
BRINY BREEZES, Fla. (AP) — The owners of nearly 500 mobile homes in one of the last waterfront trailer-park towns in South Florida stand to become instant millionaires if they agree to sell to a developer. But some are holding out, saying some things are more important than money.
“You just can’t buy a way of life,” says Tom Byrne, 68, a retired sales executive from New York who doesn’t want to sell even though he would make a little more than $1 million on the mobile home and site he bought two years ago for $150,000. “This is my home.”
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2007-01-02-trailers_x.htm
We went to see the short sale property with an agent from the listing office. He said there are two offers that have been presented to the bank for approval, and he hinted that neither is for full list price ($315k) but both are at least $300k. The question is, do I trust that he is not lying and bid at least $300k to have some chance of getting the property? My husband is inclined to believe he may be lying and wants to offer around $290k.
Any input would be appreciated.
New to NJ (23)-
A solid, credit-based mtg pre-approval should take no more than a few hours. 90% of the qualifying criteria is the quality of your “tri-merge middle score”, based on reports from three major credit reporting bureaus. It’s all done online thru the Fannie Mae system (as long as you’re going for a conforming loan), and the outcome of the process is a clear “yes or no” decision.
I can recommend a good, fast lender (no, there’s no kickback for me): First Valley Funding @ (908) 231-7390. They will not jerk you around, there is no fee, and the approval does not bind you to use their product.
I thought an actual pre-approval (as opposed to pre-qualification) meant submitting all the supporting documentation such as W2s, bank statements, and the like? If they are just checking credit isn’t that a pre-qualification?
AK
New to NJ (40)-
On first blush, I’d tend to believe what you’re being told. From what you’ve already mentioned, this property is already positioned well-below-market, and the lender is considering a short sale, to boot.
There’s an old saying in RE: “don’t steal in slow motion”. If you’re going to score this place at that kind of deep discount, there’s not much difference between 290K and 300ish. What IS important is that (unless other REO properties are available within the same complex) this is the ONLY unit available at deep discount right now.
#40
$10k difference, assuming a 30 yr-fixed loan, shouldn’t amount to much over time. If your husband would offer 290, I don’t think an extra 10k should be a deal killer. You might spilt the diff and try 295? Of course, I don’t know if 290 or 300 is a good buy on this particular REO owned property. You have the info to make that determination and offer accordingly.
Pat,
”
http://moviethemes.net/music/G/groundhog-PA-polka.mid ”
Darn catchy tune.
Preliminary January sales/inventory data is in!
jb
New (40)-
After glancing #43, I see how the advice is going to go here. Let me be more direct:
If this is the ONLY REO property in the complex, it is probable that there are multiple offers.
If there are multiple offers, you are wasting your time hedging, hemming and hawing. The bank does not care about your attempts to “split the difference” or any other tactics you wish to employ. In fact, if you indicate you want to get into a big back-and-forth, it will be noted…and the bank may not even go with you, even if you end up making the highest offer. They want to see a qualified, DECISIVE party step up to the plate and take this pig off their books. Go strong, or go away.
xhb and the housing stocks all to the
upside.
#40,
If you like the place and feel it is a bargain, there is no difference between 290k or 310k, what $120 a month???
Sometimes we place limit orders, miss them and start chasing the market. There is a saying, not directed at you; Don’t be a d*ck for a tick.
ooh…this is the negotiation part that is interesting.
What’s your gut telling you from the voice of the agent? Why would the agent honestly even tell you if there are other bids? What is the purpose of giving you that piece of (dis?)information? What would you do if this agent had not “hinted” to you that there were two other bids?
You know that if LP is $315, and the “other two bids” are close to offer at $300+, then they would not be investors. These would be other buyers like yourself. Very fishy (and unusual) to have three bidders at almost full price on a condo in short sale in this market. Investors would be low-balling the h*ll out of that one.
I would tend to think the seller’s agent is just trying to get the best/most out of you.
A difference of $10k certainly won’t make or break it for us. The truth is purchasing this home would allow us to continue living below our means and saving a large percentage of our income, which is really important to us.
For my husband I think a major issue is the fact that we would have to break the lease on our apartment, so he only wants to buy the place if he feels we are getting a really good deal. I feel that even at the list price of $315k it is a really good deal.
BC Bob (48)-
Thanks for getting that saying stuck in my head. It’ll be there all day now.
Hey, I mistakenly asked a question to you at the end of yesterday’s long thread. Can you take a look when you have a sec?
That poor groundhog :(
“A difference of $10k certainly won’t make or break it for us. The truth is purchasing this home would allow us to continue living below our means and saving a large percentage of our income, which is really important to us.”
If you like the house and can keep doing this, I wouldn’t be cheap over 10K. Owning a home while living below your means is rare around here, and to continue to be able to save is great. If you like it and can stay there awhile, offer the 300K (or 301 if you’re that worried).
I’ll take the ten grand, New. Forward it c/o of J.B.
Let’s see…ten grand…moving between funds 1x year, for next 15 years…calculated at my average index return last 10… Just enough to pay for my daughter’s bachelor’s degree if I put it in a pre-paid fund by March 31st.
Yup. I’ll take it.
JB,
“Preliminary January sales/inventory data is in!”
Please check your email again. I wanted to be sure I was consistant in my data collection. More to do with inventory numbers than anything else.
Rich
don’t let anyone pressure you into offering more than you think the place is worth. there are thousands of 2 BR condos for sale. it is unlikely that this will be the last deal you ever see
c’mon Pat, you are being unpatriotic!
Throw away the 10k and show your American’ism
If you amortize the 10k over 60 years.. its just a few cents a day.
/sarcasm off
Will do Rich, although I’m not going to combine NJMLS and GSMLS just yet.
jb
Post #2 — Obvious insurance fraud.
payroll gains in january weren’t at consensus but one should pay little attention to the initial figures. look at all the revisions, some of them multiple times from the past couple of months. the job market is still pretty hot. you can debate the quality of jobs but the overall market is still healthy.
# of listings on GSMLS has been dropping the last couple of days. this is counter to what many here expect with the supposed deluge of sellers waiting to re-list. i too expected them to steadily climb but not yet. can anyone interpret the data?
Okay cool. I was worried you already did (I personally hate to do things twice).
Rich
from the Greenwich Times:
“A new survey of the national appraisal industry found that 90 percent of appraisers reported that mortgage brokers, realty agents, lenders and consumers have pressured them to raise property valuations to enable deals to go through. That percentage is up sharply from a survey conducted in 2003, when 55 percent of appraisers reported attempts to influence their findings and 45 percent reported “never.””
more from the same article:
“Though mortgage brokers were ranked the most common source of pressure – 71 percent of appraisers said brokers had sought to interfere with their work – realty agents came in a close second at 56 percent. Both numbers were up significantly from the 2003 survey. Also identified as sources of pressure were consumers – typically home sellers at 35 percent”
Preliminary January Sales/Inventory data has been posted directly below this post on the main page.
Both will remain sticky at the top over the weekend.
Hopefully I can add the NJMLS data this weekend.
jb
“# of listings on GSMLS has been dropping the last couple of days. this is counter to what many here expect with the supposed deluge of sellers waiting to re-list. i too expected them to steadily climb but not yet. can anyone interpret the data?”
Richard, we’re not at listing season yet. And look at the charts Grim just posted…whatever the numbers, inventory line is trending up while sales are trending down…in fact, from that graph, the trends look rather sharp in each direction.
“# of listings on GSMLS has been dropping the last couple of days.”
expired lisitngs on the first of each month.
Richard Says:
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:01 am
# of listings on GSMLS has been dropping the last couple of days. this is counter to what many here expect with the supposed deluge of sellers waiting to re-list. i too expected them to steadily climb but not yet. can anyone interpret the data?
Houses are being withdrawn for re-listing in the spring season as “new” listings…..
The stand-off between buyers and sellers continues…
Clot [54],
I did see the other post. Get my email address from JB, or have him forward me yours.
By the way, we had Hov nailed back when it was 31/32. Did I act?? No, just being a d*ck, can’t even blame the tick.
GSMLS – SFH – The usual counties..
1/21-1/28
276 Expired
248 Withdrawn
105 Temp. Withdrawn
1/29-2/2 (1.5 days less)
442 Expired
227 Withdrawn
85 Temp. Withdrawn.
jb
Anybody know how to find real estate auction in New Jersey?
NJGAL
The end of the month 1/31 always experience automatic expireds. I have been keeping a graph of gsmls inventor since last may.
If your interested in seeing it email me at rhymingrealtor@yahoo.com
KL
***** Repost ***
rhymingrealtor Says:
February 1st, 2007 at 11:00 pm
Check out this one Unrealtor
237 Belvidere Washington TWP NJ ( Warren county)
Listed 112,000
Sold 113,000 9/2000
Listed 194,000
Sold 196,000 4/2005
Listed 233,000 9/2005
Witdrawn 233,000 11/05
Listed 229,000 11/05
Expired 209,000 8/06
Listed 1/27/2007 $179,000
Mls # 2368693
Jim,
How can we put something like this together, this is something you have to spot and follow, do you know of another way?
KL
If anyone has been noticing address that looked familar, I would like to look up the history, I think we will see many like the example from above.
KL
Hey BC Bob,
Will forward you my e-mail thru Grim. Thanks.
Hey, you can have a “do-over” on WCI Communities…even though Icahn’s taken down a big chunk.
Short interest on this bowser is still over 45%!!!! Better yet, there’s loads of insider buying, the short ratio is over 10 (holy sh*t…can you imagine a 10-day short cover rally with Icahn holding 15% of the float?) and a poison pill has just been put into place. Talk about loaded for bear! All elements in place for an absolute bloodletting of a short squeeze.
Listed 194,000
Sold 196,000 4/2005
Listed 233,000 9/2005
Witdrawn 233,000 11/05
Listed 229,000 11/05
Expired 209,000 8/06
Listed 1/27/2007 $179,000
Mls # 2368693
****************************
when this property finally sells for a substantial loss, the agency will no doubt trumpet the sale as “within X% of listing price”
#71 Al Says:
“Houses are being withdrawn for re-listing in the spring season as “new” listings…..
The stand-off between buyers and sellers continues… ”
=============================================
Not for long…
I say that’ll change with the upcoming 1.5 trill ARM set to reset for 2007, a big bunch of properties will go back to the 800 lbs Lending Gorilla and will be offered at a discount so the lenders can take the writeoff & get’em off their books.
RE prices tend to be sticky on the downslope – bagholders just can’t “give away” their “special” shack.
Many will ride the market down because of their GED (Greed, Entitlement and Denial).
Guys, question on Renting.
I rent a decent town house and recently talked to the (private) owner about extending my lease at a reduced rent.
She agreed but was supposed to send the Realtor who got me this rental to sign papers for the extension.
Well, the realtor never came and the lease expired 1/31… and we are still in the house. I don’t foresee any problems since I came to a mutual agreement (on the phone) with the owner.
That said, what is the worst case scenario?
Since there’s nothing signed it looks like I’m not bound by any contract (it was originally 6 months and we talked about extending another 6mo). All that the owner has is the 1.5months deposit.
I’m not looking for any suggestions – but more as to what it means legally (I need to dig up NJ rental laws).
Thanks
To Anyone,
My wife wants to take classes to get a NJ real estate license. We will begin to look to buy a house soon (I know), and she believes it will be helpful in that search. Its a course offered through Weichert. Does anyone have any familiarity with these courses and if so, does this seem like a good tactic given the fact that we will be buying a house within a year’s timeframe.
Rentlord,
Once you do your due diligence, you will probably find that you have an implied month-to-month lease that is terminable by either you or your landlord upon one month’s notice.
I was a landlord and there were some years where we didn’t renew the lease but just kept renting to the same tenant at the same rent. When we wanted to raise the rent, we gave them a new lease to sign. I know this might not be a great way to do business but we had the same tenant for six years and the rent check was always at the back door on the first.
From Bloomberg:
Subprime Loan Defaults Pass 2001 Peak, Friedman Says
Defaults on mortgages to people with poor or limited credit histories in November rose to the worst level since the last recession in 2001, according to Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc.
The percentage of so-called subprime mortgages packaged into securities and delinquent by 90 days or more, in foreclosure or already turned into seized properties rose to 10.09 percent from 9.08 percent in October, analysts led by Michael D. Youngblood at the Arlington, Virginia-based firm wrote in a report today. The default rate fell to 5.37 percent in May 2005 from 10.05 in November 2001.
Defaults on subprime loans have surged as rates on ones made in 2002, 2003 and 2004 adjust higher as their fixed-rate periods end following an increase in short-term interest rates from the lowest in 45 years. Subprime mortgages made in 2005 and 2006 are suffering from slumping home prices and looser lending standards.
“These borrowers are very leveraged and have little skin in the game” because they took out loans with small, or no, down payments and many of them haven’t seen their properties appreciate, Debashish Chatterjee, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service in New York, said in an interview Jan. 26.
Friedman Billings didn’t say whether the default rate was the highest ever. Youngblood wasn’t available for comment.
…
.S. home prices fell from the previous month in August, September, October and November, the first monthly declines since December 2001, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index, which tracks prices in 20 major metropolitan areas. The price drops accelerated to 0.41 percent in November.
Thanks skep-tic and willow!
full employment, rising real wages, and interest rates close to historic lows and we’re still seeing defaults double over the past year.
a recession at this point would be a nightmare scenario for the mortgage industry
Dink (81)-
It will not be helpful at all. Licensing courses are all about imparting knowledge of NJ RE statute, not the mechanics of buying, selling, negotiating, gaming the system, etc. Read some books…they will teach you much more about what you really need to know.
There is also not any real potential discount via commission rebate/reduction made available to licensees by the vast majority of brokers out there. Most of these guys- on orders from the home office- are always on the lookout for agents who want to hang an active license just to buy or sell one house (their own). If they get a whiff of that, they won’t hang your wife’s license.
RE post #22
You need to ask yourself some questions more than you need to as the people here. One of the best questions to ask yourself is:
What’s the worst thing that could happen if I buy it?
If the answer doesn’t bother you, then start to think about the rest of it, you obviously know the area, how’s your commute? Are you currently griping about travel time or road congestion at all? How long do you think you’ll live there?
As skeptic noted, it’s not like inventory is thin at the moment, so you don’t need to rush into anything.
Finally, I think it’s reasonable to say that most people here think this is the beginning of the downturn, not the end. If they are right,(and I think they are) there may not be anything else for sale in that area right now, but in a few months things could look a lot different.
I read an article awhile back, can’t find it. Possibly it could have been on this site. It was regarding prices. To get a true indicator of prices in this market look at condo sales rather than single family houses. It’s an apples-to-apples comparison. There are no renovations/additions, the prices reflect pure appreciation or depreciation.
Also, a smaller percentage of condo owners occupy them as compared to owners of SFH’s. It is much more liquid. The article compared a condo owner to growth stock investors, active traders. On the conntrary, SF homeowners were portrayed as buy and hold value investors, selling when they are going thru a life change. Basically, the decline in SFH prices lag the condo decline. This does not mean that the % of decline is the same. In the 90’s decline, I remember condos down 35-50%, SFH’s, approx 20-25%.
I believe the article stated to get a true picture of price changes in this market, look at the exact same condo sales, 8-12 months apart.
Time for a prediction:
The median listing price for a condo/townhouse in eastern Monmouth County will decline by at least $15K by the end of March and maybe even by the end of February.
Today’s price: $345K (up $5K since mid-Dec).
This is obviously a bold prediction, because I’m relying on sellers to have some sense.
The url I use for tracking is:
http://www.realtor.com/monmouth/nbregion1.asp?st%3Dnj%26poe%3Drealtor&poe=realtor
Skeptic, [86]
How right you are. I can’t even imagine what this market would be like if a recession hits. Usually a recession is a precursor to foreclosures. However, as we have read over and over, “usually”, does not pertain to this present market. I’ve never witnessed/read about a real esate bust, where foreclosures were the leading rather than the lagging indicator. We are certainly in unchartered waters.
By the way, if a recession occurs within the next 2-3 years, my original estimates regarding price declines for this market will prove to be conservative.
From the Star Ledger:
Real estate agents sued over dog ban
They claim the real estate listing advertised that pets were allowed.
But Keith Bolton and Vanessa Whitney, who have two dogs, said after they purchased and moved into the condominium in Hunterdon County, they discovered it was a cats-only community.
The couple say in a lawsuit it cost them $40,000 to sell the condo.
It was either that or give up a Chihuahua named Minnie and an American Staffordshire terrier named Mickey.
“That wasn’t happening,” said Bolton earlier this week after filing a lawsuit against the real estate agents who brokered the deal.
Bolton said he and his wife did not receive a copy of the condominium bylaws until after they closed in April 2005.
…
Attorney Paul Rizzo of Warren, who is representing the couple, said the costs associated with selling the condo totaled $40,000. The amount includes $650 in condo association fines, and more than $3,000 for boarding the dogs while the couple looked for a new home, Rizzo said.
Eventually the condo was sold at a loss of $8,000, according to Rizzo.
everybody want to be a victim
take no responsibility.
As a dog owner (Boxer), I’ve got to side with pesche. It would have been the first question out of my mouth.
jb
90% of appraisors say they been pressured to be complicit in mortgage fraud… do you really think there isn’t a substantial number of realtors who wouldn’t bat an eyelash when it comes to fraudulently misrepresenting a pets policy?
Clot-
In response to Dink: if their intention is to act in their own interest, as their own agent, and not Joe Broker, isn’t their some financial benefit in doing so?
Let’s say they understand the mechanics of buying, selling, negotiating, gaming the system. Now with a RE license, Dink and his wife will now be able to proceed in the buying process without any outside help. Correct?
If Dink and his wife, and The Kid want to only use this license only to purchase their own house, and NOT have the license hanging up in a wall, how is their no benefit?
The Kid
If Dink and his wife, and The Kid want to only use this license only to purchase their own house, and NOT have the license hanging up in a wall, how is their no benefit?
Technically, a real estate salesperson doesn’t hold their own license. Once you pass the exam, you provide the necessary paperwork to your employing broker, who will apply for, as well as hold your license. “Hanging up on a wall” is part of the NJ licensure law that states your employing brokerage must have your salesperson license displayed in a prominent location.
jb
JB-
You are saying, a RE class is taken, test passed, and RE license granted. The RE license cannot be used or is not valid unless it’s “Hanging on a wall”?
You forgot two steps..
Fingerprints ($78)
License Application ($160, submitted by Broker)
http://www.njdobi.org/recqual.pdf
After successfully completing the course and passing the examination the applicant must apply for a license through a sponsoring real estate broker. In addition the Commission must be satisfied as to the applicant’s honesty, trustworthiness, character and integrity.
jb
James & Clot,
Thanks for the info, I fully intend to convince her not to take the course. Now if I could just convince her to rent for another year…
Reverend Run put his house back on the market:
http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk0NyZmZ2JlbDdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5NzA2OTM3OCZ5cmlyeTdmNzE3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTM=
Question – why are his taxes so relatively low? $15k for such an enormous house on 2 acres? That doesn’t sound right to me for the area.
#100, Dink –
All it takes is for your wife to visit this blog – twice a day for a couple of weeks ;-)
JB: re: post # 38 the house in kinnelon…i was in it..the broker is very nice and honest, the place is a freakin’ mess. mold all over the basement, holes everywhere, things stolen…it must be gut renovated. it’s too bad b/c it has a good location and probably had a cool mid-century vibe..but there is at least $150K worth of work there.
somewhere on my computer i have tons of pictures (w/ the before and after..the before being before the broker had it cleaned, and cleaned is a very loose term here).
let me know if you have questions.
from FT:
“An index that measures the health of bonds backed by subprime loans, which are made to borrowers with tarnished credit histories, flashed new warning signals. The index…reached a record 640 basis points on Wednesday and was trading at 625bp yesterday. The spread has widened by about 150bp in the past week.”
2 questions:
1. at what point will the spread become wide enough that it makes sense to bear this risk
2. are there vehicles that allow a small time individual do invest in subprime mbs?
Simple question: To act as my own agent when purchasing a house, The Kid does not need a RE License. But The Kid should have intimate knowledge of and fully understand the mechanics of buying, selling, negotiating, gaming the system. Correct?
Simple question: To act as my own agent when purchasing a house, The Kid does not need a RE License. But The Kid should have intimate knowledge of and fully understand the mechanics of buying, selling, negotiating, gaming the system. Correct?
The Kid
BC Bob,
here is that article you referred to:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/18/real_estate/condo_prices_reveal_trends/index.htm?postversion=2007011813
Kid (96)-
Because the licensing class will not teach them anything about buying and selling RE. Perhaps being a licenseholder would afford them a bit of a “break” from the listing agent on a purchase (were they to deal directly with him), but probably not enough to make it worth the time and pain of getting a license. Remember, any potential discount in a RE transaction has usually been negotiated between agent and SELLER…well in advance of any buyer’s coming on the scene.
Kid (105)-
Correct.
To the kid
I would take the course anyway, you don’t have to go on to take the licence exam, the course is 300.00 $ 25.00 for books, well worth the mula just to be more informed when buying.
KL
thatbigwindow got his license and now thatbigwindow is an informed buyer!
skeptic [104],
1)Bloomberg had an article recently stating that investors are demanding 1.6% more than benchmark rates. This had widened from 1.0% since late summer. The widening spread may not sound significant, don’t be fooled, it’s huge. You are talking about a 60% increase in the spread from late summer. This spread can widen or narrow based on market conditions.
2)For a small investment, I would just get a prospectus from a mutual fund co., I prefer Vanguard. Chi would have more info on where to buy.
ADA [107],
Thanks!!
“I would take the course anyway,”
I agree with KL. I took it just to gain knowledge regarding this field. Quite comical, everybody thought I was nuts for spending the $ with no intention of getting my license. Very small investment in time and money.
By the way, who’s running the Super Bowl Pool??
If there is no intention of getting a license, can’t you just buy the textbook to gain knowledge of the field and save yourself $300 and 75 hours?
Grim,
You just acquired a RE license. Are you planning to be affiliated with a RE firm, and if so, in what capacity? Punching bag? Dart board?
Sapiens-thanks for the Hudson lecture link above. I remember this guy’s “Road to Serfdom” piece in Harper’s last spring. Property abroad, hmmmm.
If there is no intention of getting a license, can’t you just buy the textbook to gain knowledge of the field and save yourself $300 and 75 hours?
You can save even more money and just borrow mine.
jb
xhb (the proxy for the housing stocks)
Over the past month it has gone from
$34.60 to todays close of $39.70
The numbers speak for themselves.
It is what it is. Some serious money has
been made.
And Oh, by the way on great volume
You just acquired a RE license. Are you planning to be affiliated with a RE firm, and if so, in what capacity? Punching bag? Dart board?
I am affiliated with a firm as an agent.
jb
The Kid Says:
February 2nd, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Simple question: To act as my own agent when purchasing a house, The Kid does not need a RE License. But The Kid should have intimate knowledge of and fully understand the mechanics of buying, selling, negotiating, gaming the system. Correct?
The Kid
Gary: please change your name to Rickey. I’m begging you.
BC Bob Says:
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:08 pm
skeptic [104],
2)For a small investment, I would just get a prospectus from a mutual fund co., I prefer Vanguard. Chi would have more info on where to buy.
Skep: the easy money is in the rear view mirror….look elsewhere
If you already hear it in the broad news releases, then the train has left the station
Don’t be a “bagholder” ;-)
Hi All,
Please sign up on EVITE site for NJ RE Report Network
http://www.evite.com/app/publicUrl/skgala@yahoo.com/njrereport
Also, Please do suggest Restaurants that are convenient for our first GTG.
oh Skep: I re-read your post. Don’t mess with this asset class. For institutional investors only. It is going to be a bloody mess, and despite the selloff, it is still a bad market.
Think of Monty Python and the Meaning of Life. The fat man has already filled a few buckets, but all it is going to take is “one waferrrr theen” and pop. Don’t be a bagholder.
“xhb (the proxy for the housing stocks)”
pesche,
What’s the correlation to the flipper and subprime, who are trying to sell???
It is what it is. They are buying the
housing stocks at the bottom. Plus
the speculation is driving the buying.
XHB could go the other way when the selling
starts.
This latest run has been straight up.
Sooner or later profit taking will come in.
Could have a retrace right back to $34 Area.
Skep (104)-
With BC Bob. MBS plays are for institutions.
Actually, I’m not sure they’re really for anyone. The “bundles” are complex, and- as Wall Street is beginning to discover- even some “A” securities have worms at the core in the form of a nasty little percentage of loans that are below-grade and don’t really conform to the guidelines of the bundle.
If the defaults exceed the allowed perentage for the bundle, all hell breaks loose.
Speaking of Realtor’s Licenses…….any of our local realtors in Monmouth & Ocean county receive the letter from the MCAR Board for an additional $10 payment of annual dues???
Tha absolute nerve of those greedy grubbers!!!
The letter says “Due to an oversight on the Association Dues, an error was made in printing.” It goes on to say that failure to pay will result in suspended access to MLS and other dire consequences.
I can just envision those idiots from the MCAR office running up a big tab at the Realtors convention in November and thinking they can just squeeze their constituents for the extra money to cover it.
chicago, bc, clot–muchas gracias. surprisingly enough, vanguard doesn’t seem to have a fund for BBB MBS tranches. I guess there’s a reason for that…
“Red Kite Management, a $1 billion metals trading hedge fund, wants to extend the notice period for investor redemptions after losses of as much as 15% in January, according to documents obtained by MarketWatch and people familiar with the firm’s performance.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/red-kite-extend-redemption-notice/story.aspx?guid=%7B24F9FEE5-9AD5-49E8-9FC6-1D14852C7D19%7D
KL (76)-
Just compiled & posted 1/07 sales stats for my little Twp. at my blog.
There were ten closed sales. Out of those ten sales, EIGHT were either re-lists and/or price-reduced.
If I had just published the sales based on the last asking price and had not added the days-on-market from previous listings, I could’ve created a very misleading picture of seller strength…instead of the truth.
Check this, then look at the entire property histories on GSMLS:
http://www.branchblog.com/?p=23
“You just acquired a RE license. Are you planning to be affiliated with a RE firm, and if so, in what capacity? Punching bag? Dart board?
I am affiliated with a firm as an agent.
jb ”
Would you be willing to do some low-balling for some of the folks on this blog?
pesche22 Says:
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:37 pm
It is what it is. They are buying the
housing stocks at the bottom. Plus
the speculation is driving the buying.
XHB could go the other way when the selling
starts.
This latest run has been straight up.
Sooner or later profit taking will come in.
Could have a retrace right back to $34 Area.
Fish-Cano: I will invest in this position, then if I lose any money, I will track you down and sue you to remunerate my losses. OR you can stop posting this obscure crap that puts the board at risk.
Do you have anything relevent to say other than some technical crap. Think of the fundamental drivers and why it may impact the metric you are tracking.
you can always tell the naked when the
tide goes out.
Thats a hoboken yuppie saying.
Thanks ChiFi (135)-
Gazillions of very smart people are short HBs for a long list of EXTREMELY valid reasons (like the fact that they’re losing money hand-over-fist and cannot provide any visibility as to when things might get better).
It is fun to throw around “what-ifs” and play junior Cramers here, but the persistence of the XHB pump by Mr. Fish is a bit suspicious.
Anyone long this super-speculative sector is advised to tighten his seat belt.
Clot,
Nice stats. If you sort those by DOM asc/desc. you can also illustrate that overpriced properties tend to sit on market significantly longer. The trend is actually quite clear, despite the small sample size.
jb
pesche22 Says:
February 2nd, 2007 at 5:40 pm
you can always tell the naked when the
tide goes out.
I love the smell of Napalm in the morning.
JB (139)-
The trend is your friend.
went to see the house in readington gsmls# 2363105. any info on past sales? RE says was bought 8 yrs ago by older couple looking to sell it now. KL (thanks!) told us it was a re-listing that expired in Jan.
We are looking for not just a house but land acreage too.
Also any insight on schools, etc. (we have a 19 mo old.)
To all, thanks in advance.
sl
From CNN/Money:
The Kid: & Dink:
IMHO, you don’t need to get a Realtors license unless you plan on a career change. You need to find a good Realtor and believe me there are good Realtors !
Unrealtor
Those are the guys I am competing with!
Where my lexus
Clotpoll, did the guy with the shore house get any lookers yet?
Pat (146)-
Just went under contract…with a contingent buyer. We retained the right to market until such time as the buyer can waive his contingency.
Got a good price, but now we wait. Sign of the times.
We got an offer…our 40+ or so competitors didn’t.
Still Looking (142)-
That house is on Pleasant Run Rd…very nice area, many farms in all directions.
Readington Schools are uniformly very good, and have separate schools for K-2, 3-5, 6-8 grades. The HS is Hunterdon Central, which is very large & has an unusual, college-campus-like physical plant. Academics are top-notch, and the sports programs are big-time (multiple football state champs in past 10 years, including this year). Lots of extra-curriculars, including a full radio & TV station. School is also somewhat controversial, having instituted random drug testing of ALL students several years ago.
School positives are: academically tough, and college-prep/AP challenges available in every subject. Strong students can go Ivy or other top-tier colleges.
School minuses: average to below-average students and athletes are locked out of the prime opportunities. Classes are large and move fast; individual attention is not readily available. Students are “tracked” from day one, and it’s difficult to break out of the track. Discipline is heavy-handed, and the school is quick to expel chronic offenders. School is also rumored to insist that parents of difficult students medicate their kids.
Readington Twp, while being beautiful, family-friendly and safe, has a few political problems that merit attention. The local govt is very anti-development, and has often broken the rules in order to halt growth. This has led to multiple lawsuits, with the Twp. as both plaintiff and defendant. In fact, the biggest factors in recent local tax hikes are the outrageous legal bills that are racking up. The town is currently pressing a bitterly-fought eminent domain suit against Solberg Airport. The condemnation may end up costing upwards of $40,000,000, about $32,000,000 of which has already been approved in a bond issue by the voters. Ay caramba!
Hope this helps.
SG,
Thank you for organizing the get together, and for the repost… I did not see it the first time! I have been following this blog for a while and always find it full of great information and insight. I am fairly new to the area, and it would be great to meet others who share similar opinions (and frustrations) as my own…it is comforting not being an island!
Clotpoll, I see that Hunterdon is your area and I was wondering if you had any insight into the difference between North Hunterdon vs Voorhees high schools. They both rank similar (30+37) but what do insiders think? We currently live in Morris county but are considering moving down to Hunterdon. There is something very appealing about a big ole house on 5+ acres. We seem to be narrowing in on Clinton or Union twp but would be open to Lebabon / Tewksbury if the high school was much better there. Also, what’s the story with the prison in Clinton? Have there been issues with it? Seems strange that it’s so close to the cute downtown. Thanks in advance.
jb (29)
I think that place in Murray Hill was listed on craigslist not too long ago. If I recall, they were asking somewhere around 360-390 for it.
I think the victim is lying as well. Last I checked the most you could put on a metrocard was $100.
First Bank Failure Since 2004
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/metropolitansb.html
The Board of Directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today approved the assumption of the insured deposits of Metropolitan Savings Bank, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, by Allegheny Valley Bank of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Metropolitan Savings, with total assets of approximately $15.8 million at the end of the third quarter 2006, was closed today by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking, and the FDIC was named receiver
>>
Source calculated risk.
UnRealtor Says:
“From CNN/Money: Nice car, nice condo – no money”
Unrealtor, this is the story of my dating life in NJ. I have broken up with numerous guys because of their lack of fiscal responsibility. Some have had $50K in consumer debt at 30 years old. How do they think they are ever going to get out of the mess they are in? I am an old-fashioned girl and don’t want to be a guy’s sugar mama. I moved back to NJ in the summer after a brief stay in TN. I believe this problem is more prevalent in the Northeast. It’s all about image, you gotta keep up with those wall street guys.
jb ”
Would you be willing to do some low-balling for some of the folks on this blog?
What??????? What??? You want this “newbie” putting in your lowballs!!! I am the queen of Lowballs, my name was brought up at the national convention!! ( in a very negative way to my boss but whatever!)
Of course I have not had any accepted. If Bednar has one accepted before me I’m throwing in my lowball towel!!
KL
Buyers: Please take your time and get yourself a good deal. Check out some of these properties gathering dust in the premium towns in union/essex county. Don’t let whatshisface fool you. The market has changed.
I have tried to add some examples of mls listings since it will be more credible than comments like the one Richard makes about how his *friends* are buying in Westfield and up 15% since 2005 when is now considered the peak of the bubble.
_________________________________
Chatham:
MLS: 2341669
http://tinyurl.com/2rohkm
OLP: $829,000, LP: $769,000 ,DOM:82
MLS: 2342894
http://tinyurl.com/34vtuf
OLP: $769,000, LP: $699,900, DOM: 80
MLS#: 2331423
http://tinyurl.com/3djdxx
OLP: $995,000 LP: $869,000 DOM: 109
MLS: 2331868
http://tinyurl.com/2wz69d
OLP: $925,900 LP: $875,000 ADM: 108
_________________________________________
Berkeley Heights:
MLS:2352637
http://tinyurl.com/2r69r9
OLP: $750,000, LP: $679,900 , DOM: 53
MLS: 2306027
http://tinyurl.com/2rqbqk
OLP: $859,900, LP: $749,000 , DOM: 166, Listing Expired. Relisted: MLS#: 2366088 LP: $749,000 DOM 14
MLS#: 2316269
http://tinyurl.com/2l2puw
OLP: $998,900 LP: $899,500 DOM: 150
MLS#: 2322141
http://tinyurl.com/2rnkhn
OLP: $881,000 LP: $849,000 DOM: 137
MLS#: 2301104
http://tinyurl.com/3alguw
OLP: $839,900 LP: $765,000 DOM: 185
Listing Expired. Relisted MLS#: 2367967
LP: $765,000 DOM 8
MLS#: 2332716
http://tinyurl.com/2n33wh
OLP: $829,000 LP: $789,000 DOM: 105
___________________________
Millburn:
MLS#: 2263032
http://tinyurl.com/2slkjm
OLP: $1,150,000 LP: $999,000 DOM: 306
MLS#: 2323102
http://tinyurl.com/2mlhzx
OLP: $795,000 LP: $739,000 DOM: 125
Listing Expired
Relisted MLS 2368193 LP: $739,000 DOM 8
Required dress at evening gatherings for agents of no-lowball status:
http://tinyurl.com/yotttw
no Scotch, either…only grain punch made with Kool-aid.
Huh! And I thought that lowball was a synonym for ‘old man’.
From the Charlotte Observer:
Pressure is on appraisers to inflate values
With home prices softening and sales volumes sagging in many local markets, real estate appraisers say that pressure on them to inflate values has reached pandemic proportions.
A new survey of the national appraisal industry found that 90 percent of appraisers reported that mortgage brokers, realty agents, lenders and even consumers have pressured them to raise property valuations to enable deals to go through. That percentage is up sharply from a parallel survey conducted in 2003, when 55 percent of appraisers reported attempts to influence their findings and 45 percent reported “never.” Now the latter category is down to just 10 percent.
Both surveys were conducted by October Research Corp., a Richfield, Ohio,-based firm that publishes Valuation Review, a popular industry newsletter.
The latest survey involved 1,200 appraisers representing a statistical cross-section of the industry in 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.
“I call it a perfect storm scenario,” said Alan Hummel, senior vice president of Forsythe Appraisals of St. Paul, Minn., one of the largest property valuation firms in the country with 40 offices and 190 licensed appraisers. Forsythe was a co-sponsor of the new research study.
“You’ve got a situation where sales are down so everybody in the deal needs it to go through” at the contract price — the mortgage broker, the Realtor, the lender, and even individual sellers.
Loan brokers are now routinely “dialing for values,” said Hummel. “They call up appraisers and say, we’ve got this sale at $335,000 at such and such an address. Can you get to that number?” If an appraiser answers yes, he or she gets the assignment. If not, the appraiser is bypassed.
Worse yet, said Hummel, when an appraiser comes back with a market value estimate that is lower than the sales contract price, the appraiser may not get paid for the work, and frequently is blackballed by the mortgage broker or realty agent.
The survey found that 75 percent of appraisers reported “negative ramifications” if they refused to cooperate and come in with a higher valuation. Sixty-eight percent said they lost the client — typically a mortgage broker or lender — following their refusal to fudge the numbers, and 45 percent reported not receiving payment for their appraisal.
Are we on the precipice of a new wave of bank failures? While the factors involved are dramatically different, I can’t help but think of the S&L crisis when I read this piece.
From the Herald Tribune:
Expert: Coast unlikely to fail
Coast Bank is unlikely to fail, but with the potential for an FDIC-induced discount-price sale, it could become the first banking casualty of the housing bubble, says a well known Miami banking analyst.
Independent analyst Ken Thomas does not believe Coast will become the first U.S. bank failure since June 2004, the longest streak since the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was founded in 1934.
Thomas believes that it was likely the federal agency that encouraged the bank’s Bradenton-based parent, Coast Financial Holdings Inc., to hire investment banking firm Sandler O’Neill & Partners to explore options.
“The FDIC does not want its first failure in years, so they likely encouraged the board to hire Sandler O’Neill who, as we speak, probably has many banks doing due diligence,” Thomas said.
Coast Bank has been struggling since admitting that $110 million in loans to home buyers are in jeopardy after their builder stopped work.
Coast may face a loss of $20 million to $30 million, a major hit on its “already thin” capital of $51 million, Thomas said.
The FDIC said it had not taken any recent enforcement actions against Coast. The bank’s deposits remain insured as normal by the agency.
(#93) pesch22 says:
“….everybody want to be a victim–take no responsibility…”
pesch22 is refering to JB (#92) about the couple ‘not knowing’ about dogs not being allowed in their condo-shack community..YEAH-_HA!
Just one or two generations ago (in the USA) it was somewhat embarassing to be a so-called “victim”—responsibility to ones own life was a ‘givin’…..NOW (IMHO) a totally different culture exists—and it is NOT for the ‘better’ !———–It is now: WAH-WAH-WAH –“..Look what he’s (they) is (are) doing to ME..” —–“..Uh, where’s my lawyer !!!”[–AKA-LIAR]
I’d love to go to the get together but I work Tuesday nights. Have one for me!
Amen CommanderBob. I can’t tell you how much I’d like to strangle these whiners sometimes. Grow up and take responsibility for your own actions or lack thereof.
clot,
Thanks for the extensive! school and local information. Were going to look again today with my father in law (the yellow-eyed critical real estate fault finder)
do you by chance know the tax/sale background? We like the house a lot but being a proper NJREreport blogger….we are probably gonna sit tight for a while…. we aren’t in any hurry.
Also – there is a stream on the lot. Great for people who want to raise bees but does this area also fall under the Highland Act?
Thanks for all your help… we aren’t too familiar with this area (Readington) at all.
Thx again!
sl
Still looking
That home was purchased in 1998 for $590,000 – Clot gave you the school info
KL
PS: General questions
Does knowing what prior owner paid help? Hurt? or aggravate??
When you are looking, you are aware of market conditions, you have sensible down payment, you are well within you means for mortgage payments,you want to buy, you are going to buy, Does this help?
If they have a ton of equity or they have none how does it benefit you?
If the market value of a home today is $100,000 ( market value being what someone is willing to pay) Does it matter to you the owner paid $120,000 for it ? Will you give them more? If they paid $20,000 ( bought it from there mother) Will they take less than someone will pay for it?
I’d like to hear some opinions on this.
Thanks
This is a remarkably generic question but has anyone ever looked at under-construction properties that have not received a Certificate of Occupancy?
I’m looking at a house where construction was stopped 3 years ago by the building code team. Clearly there are huge structural issues and I’ve argued that the house is worth $0 (it may even subtract from the value of the property if I have to knock it down and remove it) but the owner continues to insist that they will find a buyer at 5 times their 1997 price.
Any tips on items to mention to the seller that might induce them? I thought about mentioning that most lenders probably wouldn’t finance this type of house (important b/c my offer is for $$)but I’m not sure that’s even accurate.
The home is not in NJ (Upstate NY) but the readers here are as informed on real estate as any on the web.
Any help is appreciated.
Michelle (150)-
I actually live & have 2 kids in the N Hunterdon/Voorhees district.
There is very little difference between the two schools. They are both outstanding. College-level work is offered right from the first day of 9th grade. There’s also a terrific breadth of programs that ultimately offer AP credit (even painting and music). Both schools also have excellent after-school and arts programs, which are amazingly well-funded (no doubt thanks to the smoking tax bills we all pay).
If there is any real difference, it is that Voorhees has a bit more of a liberal arts/humanities slant, while N Hunterdon has more of a science/math orientation.
If you end up living in Tewksbury, be aware that it is not densely-populated, and many families send their kids to private schools. If you want your kids in a place that’s more school-spirited, you may want to lean toward Clinton Twp.
167 – Clot. Thanks for the info. We drove around Tewksbury last weekend and found it VERY rural. We kept saying that we wanted rural until we got there. Seemed like a little too much rural for us! I’ve printed off some houses in Union, Clinton and Franklin to drive by today, we’ll see what we think of it. Everything I had read about the schools said they were good, but it’s great to hear that from someone actually living it. Thanks again.
Still Looking (164)-
I may not be back in the office for a day or two, but I’ll check the tax/sale data. However, there are many “holes” in Hunterdon’s database, so I may come up w/nothing.
Don’t sweat the stream, unless you intend to build a wing onto the house. We are in the Highlands Act zone, but existing structures are grandfathered vs. the Act’s provisions. However, any appurtenance you may want to add cannot broach that stream’s setbacks (which I believe are 150 feet).
If you are looking to buy a house with land and harbor any intention of future subdivision, forget it. Planning boards out here will grind you to dust before allowing even legitimate subdiv’s to happen.
I think KL also offered some great insight as to value. Don’t let previous sales history hang you here. The house is worth what it’s worth based upon TODAY’S market and what it will bear. That means it’s worth what YOU think it’s worth. Knowing sales history- or what the current owner paid- may give you some insight into their possible negotiating strategy, but not much else. I will never understand why buyers get so hung up on what the owner paid. It’s largely irrelevant, unless the owner is upside-down.
IMO, I think that house should go for just under 1 MIL. The seller is positioned in a virtual “no man’s land” at 1.195M. Not his fault, but that segment is dead as a doornail in Hunterdon…and it’s jammed with lots of top-quality homes vying for the attention of very few buyers. Have your agent comp this house vs the entire county, and you’ll see what I mean.
Good luck!
Mortgage employment fell below 500,000 for the first time since January 2006.
http://www.mortgagedaily.com/
“If they have a ton of equity or they have none how does it benefit you?”
KL [165],
I understand why realtors/sellers want to be assured that they are dealing with a qualified buyer. I don’t argue that point. I would demand the same. In conjunction with this, I want to know that I am dealing with a qualified seller.
If the seller bought in 2003-2005 with zero down, or if the home is tapped out, I am not interested. Realtors/sellers don’t want to waste their time with unqualified candidates. I feel the same as a buyer. Suppose they bought the house for 600k,[I’m willing to bid 500k] and they have zero or no equity. Is it reasonable for me to assume that they will bring 100k to closing??? In this type of situation, I’d rather deal with the bank.
IMO, the worm has turned. Who would ever think of asking the question; “Is the seller qualified”??? At least to me, that is what this market has bred. I am curious?? Other strategies???
I just have to report that somehow the residents of Cedar Grove have not heard that there is a real estate market slowdown – because I cannot believe the incredibly high prices that I continue to see. And I see the (frequently horrible) houses selling for very high prices. And many houses are priced higher than in the last 2 years.
Take one house, which was originally a teardown on a street filled mainly with many small ranches on small lots (along with several teardowns and rebuilt ugly McMansions on the street). Well, someone bought the rebuilt house for about $650,000 2 years ago and now this year they want $849,000. Many of the homes on the street go in the $400,000s – so that price is crazy.
MLS ID#:2358460
And MLS ID#:2365460 is of a former teardown and then massively rebuilt (it’s a large house on a small lot, but many of the other smaller houses on the street sell for in the $500,000s). The owner wants $1,500,000 for the house. I would say overpriced by more than $600,000.
And it seems to me that Upper Montclair prices also seem to be holding.
Has anyone else noticed that some towns seem to be holding up better or at least fighting (to the death)the real estate slowdown?
RE: Knowing owner’s purchase price.
Clotpoll mentions it adds to knowledge during a negotiation.
But I see some other benefits in the current market.
1a. Narrowing down choices. Let’s say you have three ranchers you’re considering. All are virtually identical in terms of schools, amenities, location, upkeep and list price. Which one would you bid on, one purchased in 2006 for $350 (OLB=$340), one purchased in 2002 for $199k (OLB $130) or one purchased in 1992 for $89k (OLB $20k)?
1b: How would your decision change if the first home sale price was $1 in 2006 (OLB$=360), purchased for $335 in 2004?
2. Negotiation confidence is transmitted. When you have more information, you feel powerful in your decisions and this will show in your negotiation.
One other comment. If buyers shouldn’t be concerned with purchase price, why would selling agents be concerned with telling buyers there are “competing bids?” Should that change the value a buyer places on a house? No, but for sucker buyers, it might. Same goes for sellers…should having a buyer know what you paid for your house impact your willingness to accept their bid? No, but for sucker sellers, it might.
That’s zero or little equity. Bear with me, my mind is on point spreads.
I wish I had known earlier. I could have planned to go for it.
Saturday, February 03, 2007
Corzine to hold forum today in Union Twp.
Gov. Jon Corzine will likely get an earful on a number of issues, including property taxes and government spending when he holds another in a series of community forums this afternoon in Union Township.
About 200 people are expected to attend the forum, which is scheduled from 1 to 2:30 p.m. at the municipal building on Morris Avenue.
Shared services between neighboring municipalities also is likely to be among the “key issues confronting New Jersey” to be addressed by the governor, said township spokeswoman Geri Durso.
The event is open to the public, but reservations are advised. Seating, as well as special-needs accommodations, can be arranged by calling (609) 777-0994.
Corzine has held similar community meetings in Paramus, Paterson, Vineland and West Windsor, and Gilfillan said the series will continue in yet to be determined communities.
My main question would be: What is his opinion on the fact that most towns in NJ allow building of houses only for family without Kids?
Placed an offer on a home in Monroe, NJ at 12% below asking price. Of course the offer was rejected, but still tried. Home has been on the market sinnce last October 2006 and its owned by a flipper (VACANT).
Many homes in Monroe in the price range of $600-750K are going stale. I’m not sure what their game plan will be to move these homes. Some of the properties that have gone under contract were aggressively priced to SALE.
I think the panic will start to set in in the next few weeks as more properties come on the market.
I think you can find many seriios sellers who are willing to negoitate on homesforsalebyonwer.com
I would like to get some information on how to get involved in a sheriffs sale. I am seeing some interesting notices in my paper. If I am interested in something, do I just appear at the court with 20% certified check. That would be insane. How do you get involved? Call the sheriff? Are these things risky?
#172 MS:
“Has anyone else noticed that some towns seem to be holding up better or at least fighting (to the death)the real estate slowdown?”
I have noticed this. Some of the listings that I have listed in my earler post are actually second listings. Most of them started above $1 Mil and some of them even where on the forsalebyowner website. Many of the homes that listed for $1 mil last year have gone into contract in the $800K range this year. This correction will be play out over a long period and you can choose to get it at any time you want. If you want to get in this year, you are still better off that last year. It will take another year of dust gathering before many of these sellers open their eyes to the new environment. About homes that you see going into contract, Home Seller posted a while back that there will always be uninformed buyers and uninformed sellers and you will see the irrational asking prices and contract prices.
I will consider the bottom when the inventory of home for sale reaches the 4 to 5 months supply. NJ has 10+ months supply of homes on the market and the only way inventory will move is with a price reduction. It’s basic economics. This 10+ months supply doesn’t include the thousands of units coming up in the *New* gold cost. Jersey City, Hoboken, Weehawaken, edgewater etc.
The Perfect Storm
by Hard Place
From 2001- to mid 2005 we’ve had declining unemployment, low rates (short and long end), relaxed lending standards and a economy chugging along causing the RE market to surge upwards and speculators and normal buyers purchased homes. With a steep yield curve, meaning low short term floating rates and high fixed rates, payments were lowered using floating rates allowing buyers to spend more $$$. Rationally where the market was really expensive buyers/speculators jumped into ARM’s because it increased their buying power. This was the perfect storm that allowed the RE market to prosper in this area.
Are we looking at a forming of a perfect storm on the downside? From end of 2005 to our current situation with prices still historically high and no longer rising the market is not strong enough to support speculators leaving only the normal buyers. We could even say prices have measurably declined, though have not crashed. Interest rates on the short end have moved up flattening and even inverting the yield curve as long term rates are now slightly lower. This makes the ARM look less attractive taking away one source of buying power for purchasers. In addition, lending standards have started to tighten shrinking the pool of normal buyers further. New home buyers capable of purchasing a home must have sufficient income and/or sufficient down payment for a home. This evidence can be seen clearly in the decreasing trend line of the month to month sales and the increasing trend line of the month to month inventory in the region.
The cracks are starting to show a bit as foreclosures have increased. Stalled to declining equity and increasing interest rates has made it difficult for strapped homeowners to refinance ARMS.
Now this is my opinion, but the housing situation has little to propel it further forward. Banks will not be loosening their lending standards relatively soon. I’ve seen the credit dept. operate at a bank, once they tighten credit standards that is how it stays for a couple years. The economy, as measured by GDP and unemployment are still stalwarts, but traditionally these are lagging indicators of the market. Interest rates can be lowered, but what does that mean? It means our economy is tanking. Can our economy really get that much better? Consumer spending makes up approx. 2/3rds of our economy and consumers are pretty much tapped out in terms of their ability to spend. Companies already earning record profits. Increased corporate spending can not drive the economy as far as consumer spending. A soft landing and housing will probably walk down prices gradually either with small declines or small gains that don’t outpace inflation. If we have a recession with little to no inflation we’ll have a strong decline. If we have stagflation (stagnant economy and inflation), better run for cover.
The Pioneers.
I’m renting currently. My lease is up at the end of 2007, but unless prices drop significantly it makes sense for me to rent another year. I don’t have to pay property taxes, mow the lawn, clean the gutters, call the plumber to repair a leak, get someone to clean the furnace and a/c, seal the driveway, waterproof the deck and paint the house. Sure I don’t have pride of ownership, but I’ve got pride in watching my bank account grow and know I’m doing what’s best for my family and my future financial situation. So to those renting and bunkering in until home prices drop further or exceed the cost of renting, stand tall for making a wise decision. We do not buy not because we can’t afford it, unlike most of the other 30% of non-homeowners. We choose not to buy because we believe the consensus is wrong about the market. The naysayers, typically those part of the 70% of homeowners think we are mocking their decision, but we are only standing by our convictions. To those who laugh at us, our foresight may not make us Copernicus’ or Magellan’s, but we are pioneers in our own right. Not willing to embrace the safety of owning a home, but willing to risk the uncertainty of renting. We will navigate through the uncharted waters and hopefully have enough financial capacity to not capsize in this brewing storm.
Since using IE7 the text looks bold and larger. Is this anyone else’s observation?
#179
I am not sure if I agree with all of your comments but owning a house is the biggest waste of my time!! I have bought a house in 2005, currently the prices are lower than I paid for it, so I can not get out and the taxes have increased 50% since I have bought it. Talking about begin screwed.
#180
Use Firefox and you’ll be O.K. IE sucks!!!
“Interest rates can be lowered, but what does that mean?”
# 179,
Good point. It doesn’t mean s*it. What will happen if the fed unexpectedly lowered .25?? It won’t matter for the subprime. Investors have spoken, they are demanding a larger spread over benchmark. On the other hand, if rates were lowered in today’s environment, [employment #’s, core cpi, wage growth,dollar status] the 10 year would decline in price, yields would go higher, just my opinion. No effect on the subprime and higher long term rates. Investors control the subprime and the market controls the 10 year. Again, this is based on today’s economic environment. Things can be radically different in 90-120 days. What will occur if the economy slows and at the same time, as a result of more delinquencies and foreclosures, the subprime spread continues to widen??? YIKES.
In this scenario, the 10 year yield will come down, but to whose benefit??? Fixed rate financing is extinct, just old school, so 80 or 90ish. As a matter of fact you realize that it is so antiquated since this is when Rickey was Rickey.
The triple waste of space toolbars on top are giving me agita. I’m gonna have to do something. Hope hubby will agree.
Has anyone seen any data on new units completion in Hoboken, JC, Weehawaken ??
When and how many??
Can somebody provide the street address for the following;
MLS#- 2702523
Very much appreciated.
Check out these *Super Intelligent Couple from today’s NY Times.
http://img184.imageshack.us/my.php?image=idiotsdg8.jpg
Young Buyers, Prepared and Fearless
After online research into the financial state of more than 100 apartment buildings, tours of 30 condos and co-ops and analysis of minutiae like projected future maintenance payments, they recently closed on an $875,000 two-bedroom co-op in Midtown. As owners in a building with relatively lenient policies, like 10 percent down payments and flexible sublets, the Hymans talk about their apartment as a strategic investment that they someday plan to turn into cash.
“We’re more comfortable with taking on debt and paying tomorrow,” Mr. Hyman said. “If the cards topple, you can rent your place out and go somewhere cheaper.”
More from nytimes article:
“You have a new kind of buyer today,” said Dottie Herman, the chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate. “Twenty years ago, it was ‘Pay everything off in cash and have no debt.’ Ten years ago, it was ‘Have some debt.’ If they want something now, they figure out a creative way to finance it.”
The mind-set of younger buyers may dominate the patterns of buying in New York City for years to come. Their liberated attitude toward borrowing is helping to keep prices stable. While buyers of the past may have coveted co-ops, younger buyers find condominiums more appealing because they allow for flexible financing and their sales don’t require board approval.
At the same time, younger buyers are exposing themselves to more risk because they are taking on so much debt that if prices fell, they could be caught with no equity in their homes.
“The whole attitude is different today,” said Barbara Fox, the president of the Fox Residential Group in Manhattan, who started her real estate career before these under-30 buyers were born. “These buyers have never lived through bad times.”
Younger buyers have such different approaches to real estate that they are prompting developers to change the way they sell apartments. Some are hyping condominiums with the promise that buyers can eventually rent them out. Others are making sure that their prices are as close as possible to similar projects because they know younger buyers have researched every comparable condominium in the neighborhood before they walk through the door.
More goodstuff:
“Younger buyers want to retain their cash,” Mr. Gallagher said. “They don’t want to empty their bank accounts for a deposit. They want to finance 100 percent if possible.”
One of his clients, Charlotte Lewis, a Brooklyn-based photographer, was more conservative than most about financing her condo. She spent six months looking at nearly two dozen apartments in Brooklyn. With her savings and help from her parents, she put down 20 percent for a $340,000 one-bedroom on the outer edges of Williamsburg that she thought was distinctive enough to retain its value, even in an area with many new buildings.
She sought help from a mortgage broker in her rental building to negotiate the best interest rate, and now pays about $1,630 a month. But even with all this thoughtful research, she rattled her family when she told them about the kind of mortgage she had chosen for what she considers a five-year investment.
“My parents freaked out when I said I was doing a seven-year, interest-only ARM,” she said. “They’ve always bought properties that they’ve owned for life.”
In the end, they agreed with her that it was smarter to own than to rent — they even paid for the crown moldings. Since she moved in December, Ms. Lewis has painted her walls a creamy Edgecomb gray and has framed watercolors she painted as a child. She’s feeling more comfortable with her decision every day.
“I really think that real estate will not go down,” she said. “At the very least, it will stay the same. In the meantime, I need a place to live. So the worst-case scenario still isn’t that bad.”
So if anyone is wondering how some crazy properties still sell at 2005 prices, there is a breed of young brash buyers out there who have not seen and not believe in a real-estate correction. Heck, few of them even post their musings on this board. Many of these people would end up in financial ruin.
BC Bob (174)-
Speaking of spreads, check the Colts’ defense. Lots of injuries. They have no depth, and it’s going to be hot & sticky tomorrow.
I think the Bears can win this game outright.
AdAgency Woman (177)-
The fact that you have to ask says you shouldn’t get near one of these sales until you know exactly how to play the game.
The people bidding in Sheriff Sales are almost all pros. Even though it is frowned upon, many of these pros also employ shills, straw buyers and plants to influence the proceedings. It is a deadly serious, big money biz.
Clot,
Based on nothing else than sentiment, I say Bears and points. Again only sentiment, certainly not a ringing endorsement of Rex Grossman.
I’ve always rented apartments. I’m about to sign a lease on a townhouse rental. What should i look for in the lease?
The rent seems to be good.
Yearly rent * 10 = .60 listed price.
Is it customary for me to ask the land lord to include a lease breakage fee? I don’t want the house to be sold (or foreclosed) and asked to move while I’m still renting.
“The whole attitude is different today,” “These buyers have never lived through bad times.”
Anti [188],
There is a tidal wave coming. The market adjustment will certainly not be unrivaled.
BC Bob (193)-
Yeah, I was able to buy a .5 point to take it to Bears +7.5 (no way am I gonna push on a Super Bowl wager!).
I just think the Bears can grind out an ugly win, wear out the Colts’ thin D and make Peyton run around enough to keep him uncomfortable. If the Bears lose, they lose a close one.
Bear (194)-
You can’t be made to move, even if the unit is sold. Your lease must be honored by the new owner.
“Their liberated attitude toward borrowing”
gotta love the NY Times.
last year they publish an article about how single men are afraid of commitment because they don’t buy apartments as frequently as single women.
this year they imply that anyone who isn’t willing to borrow 100% of the purchase price of a condo is an old-fashioned stick-in-the-mud.
the truth is that ads from condo developers and realtors are the only thing keeping the Times afloat financially.
In light of the Times “liberated” attitude toward borrowing, it would be pretty funny if a NYC condo crash also resulted in a Times Co LBO.
Might be interesting to see how all of these fluff-piece writers’ attitudes change if they are personally under the yoke of some serious leverage
“don’t want the house to be sold (or foreclosed) and asked to move while I’m still renting.”
bear,
If you have a rental lease and the house is sold, the lease is honored. Foreclosure??? I don’t know of any rental lease that protects you in this scenario.
thanks clot!
“Foreclosure??? I don’t know of any rental lease that protects you in this scenario.
”
yikes! Thanks Bob.
BC bob
Lease would also cover foreclosure
KL
thanks rhymingrealtor!
Clot, i have to agree with your assessment. Seems like the 7 points is based solely on the playoffs alone, with no regard to the regular season. The variance with which both these teams play week to week is too great to give one team a 70% chance of winning. That variance is also why I wouldn’t touch the over/under.
Think about this: when was the last time there was a Super Bowl, and you got the feeling that the best two teams in the NFL weren’t in the game?
Clot [2005],
Giants, Ravens??
KL [202],
Thanks!!
100% financing is the smartest thing you can do if you can get a way with it, if the property value drops you just walk a way with little downside. The dummies are the mortgage companies that are willing to lend the money. But these days with every mortgage being sold multiple times, no one cares anymore. Having said that young buyers have no choice but to hop on and enjoy the ride while it lasts. I hope it last as long as I am in.
I agree that the best team in the AFC is not in the game, but who was better than the Bears in the NFC this year? The NFC sucked. The next best win-loss record in the NFC this year belonged to the Eagles and the Saints at 10-6.
AK
“100% financing is the smartest thing you can do if you can get a way with it, if the property value drops you just walk a way with little downside.”
uh, what about the fact that you are personally liable for the loan? can’t walk away from that unless you declare bankruptcy (and with new laws, most people will not have the option of Ch 7 so you will end up paying even in bankruptcy)
Hello space cadets!
Yeah that’s right reward some typical wise ass house flipper with your life savings.
Hey brainless shmucks, aren’t you proud of your shelves? How does it feel?
To all you 2003-6 buyers…..What did you think, your overpriced shxtbox would be worth 100 grand more the following year for a bigger fool than you to hold the bag last.
GO BACK TO WORK AND EARN YOUR LIVING THE PRODUCTIVE WAY.
A HOUSE IS A PLACE TO LIVE AND RAISE A FAMILY.
“100% financing is the smartest thing you can do if you can get a way with it, if the property value drops you just walk a way with little downside”
…….and no doubt there is a major attitude adjustment coming.
Clot/Dink/New-to-NJ,
I’m set with the spread and the coin toss, tails. These are the ones I’m struggling with;
1) Which will be higher?? Tiger’s birdies or total FG’s??
2)Tiger’s bogeys or total interceptions??
3)Lebron James, more points than Colts??
4)Bily Joel, under/over national anthem, 104 seconds??
My favorite; 10-1 odds, [Prince or the artist formerly known as Prince, or whatever he goes by today] falling on stage during the halftime show. It may be worth a shot, especially if he is in on the fix. I don’t know if he trips on the stairs, [arriving or departing the stage],if that constitutes a fall??? Anybody know???
That’s over/under.
A bigger bet;
“Hedge funds and other large speculators placed a record amount of bets the yen will decline against the dollar, according to weekly data from the Washington-based U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”
“The difference in the number of wagers on a decline in the yen compared with those on a gain — so-called net shorts — jumped to a record 173,005 on Jan. 30, trumping the prior record of 164,860 a week earlier.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awCjnCxQbRms&refer=home
Pat #180,
If you like the old IE better, you can download and install a standalone version of IE6 (or other older IE) from here:
http://browsers.evolt.org/?/ie/32bit/standalone
Of course FF is way too cool. It is my Tivo for the internet (blocks ads, runs custom scripts, can enable TOR at will..)
Frank,
You can’t just flip the keys back to the bank and walk away. You’re still liable for the balance of the loan. And if the bank forgives the balance or writes it off, you’re still not off the hook. I’m not completely clear on this point, but that balance creates an IRS liability.
If you have any thoughts about walking away …get chapter-and-verse on the possible ramifications first.
>>Based on nothing else than sentiment, I say Bears and points. Again only sentiment, certainly not a ringing endorsement of Rex Grossman.
i called indy and the over versus new england due to it being ‘their year’. take the colts and the over again.
An editorial from today:
Edison right to fight supersizing of homes
Home News Tribune Online 02/3/07
We’ve all seen them, those humongous homes that block the sun and swallow the earth, all because some owner or developer has decided to add on, ignoring the tastes of neighbors or the vintage appeal of a quiet street.
Regretably, the phenomenon is no longer so uncommon in these parts. Now it seems that wherever one turns there’s some house on steroids pushing against the edges of a postage-stamp lot, the source of grief for anyone unlucky enough to live nearby.
Conscious of the problem, and of the aesthetic value inherent in maintaining the character of its community’s older neighborhoods, the Edison Township Council has decided to do something about it. Right on.
As of this week, homeowners who want to expand their residences in Edison will be subject to the township’s new Floor Area Ratio, or FAR, ordinance. FAR limits the scope of all home additions to the size of the property, restricting not only space but height.
Councilman Charles Tomaro explained it thusly: The size limit of a home on a 7,500-square-foot property would be 2,625 square feet; square footage would be proportionately larger for, say, a house on a 10,000-square-foot lot. Height allowances are 35 feet from the original lot grade.
The new rules don’t unduly restrict homeowners from improving their investments or expanding their homes to meet the demands of a growing family or other personal needs. The regulations simply mandate that any expansion conforms to the nature of all surrounding homes, helping maintain the sense of a neighborhood’s established uniformity.
In short, the rules are flexible enough to satisfy the wishes of home-improvement buffs, yet firm enough to appeal to the community at large.
Other municipalities ought to try it. Metuchen, for one, is becoming a mishmash of home styles in some of its aging quarters thanks in part to land speculators who buy a tiny house, build it out to its limits, and then sell, leaving longtime residents to stare at the monstrosity left behind.
Edison has the right idea. Good work.
BC Bob (213)-
What the f? Are you sitting in a Vegas sportsbook right now? These exotic over/unders sound like a guaranteed wallet vacuum.
However, I like the odds on the Prince slip-and-fall. I’ve heard that he’s worn high-heeled shoes for so long, he needs a hip replacement.
BC Bob (215)-
When the yen carry trade unwinds, it’s gonna be Armageddon.
Can any of you w/ MLS access find out the address for me for MLS # 2320312…I will be forever grateful. Thanks.
“Bear (194)-
You can’t be made to move, even if the unit is sold. Your lease must be honored by the new owner.”
That is true unless the current owner or new owner wants to occupy your apartment, then they can break the lease and give you 60 days to move out under NJ law.
Jay (223)-
Huh? That’s a new one to me. Under what statute?
Jay (223)-
If that’s really the law, then what’s the use of a landlord’s submission of an estoppel letter (a letter which describes the terms of the tenancies in an investment property)?
In other words, why should any purchaser care about the tenancies that exist in a property he’s purchasing? Since he can- according to you- toss those tenants out within 60 days of closing, why bother?
216 thanks, RentLord.
#190 # AntiTrump Says:
“So if anyone is wondering how some crazy properties still sell at 2005 prices, there is a breed of young brash buyers out there who have not seen and not believe in a real-estate correction. Heck, few of them even post their musings on this board. Many of these people would end up in financial ruin.”
==============================================
I also suspect the real estate pimps (Realtor/Flipper) behind this new ‘beat the early Spring Sale’ machination (re-list again and again, cash back etc.)
Hey JB, wouldn’t be interesting to find out how many Realtor/Flipper listings are out there….
lowball (227)-
Not that many Realtors flip. It’s hard to do when you live check-to-check and may not even own your primary residence.
90% of the Realtors you meet cannot- and do not- last 24 months in the business.
for AntiTrump, as a fello blogger who is looking in Berkeley Heights, what do you think of the T/houses in the Highlands,( next to The Trap Rock) noticed quite a few have hit the market, still 2005 prices, wonder when they will become serious sellers ???.
Clot,
I’ve heard of realtors playing a different kind of flip game, where they would go out to look at a prospective listing, and if the house had knockdown value – a lot that was large enough to be re-developed with a bigger house or subdivided – they’d buy the house themselves and flip it to a builder for more.
Didn’t last too long, though. The locals got hip pretty fast to that one.
There’s a lot of teardowns-and-rebuilds in some of the areas where my family lives.
Guys- Have to disagree w/the majority of the board here. I cannot make a case for the Bears to win this game. Peyton got the monkey off his back 2 weeks ago and its going to be like the sox in ’04. He’s relaxed, grossman is a nervous wreck. The NFC was the red headed stepchild to the AFC this year.
This game has the potential to be ugly quick.
suziehomemaker
Im also looking in the berkeley heights area. Have you noticed very few new listing for several months. Whats happening, I need some action. Does anything interest you? Are you looking for a home or townhouse? The open houses I’ve been to the last couple of weeks have had some action, but those houses are still on the market… I keep changing my mind, yes prices will go down…..no maybe im wrong and they will not.
I seem to lose hope of a “crash” when i see these buyers. But either way i guess not much is moving. Good hunting, when do you plan on buying?
Me
Clot #225 – my ex is a lawyer with a specialization in landlord/tenant laws in NJ. I believe you can say you are moving in as long as you have less than 3 apts/units in a single dwelling. It also must be declared your primary residency. I know he has been hired to get tenants out under this law. I copied in the section of the law below.
http://www.uslandlord.com/laws/njstatelaw.html
(2) The owner of three or less condominium or cooperative units seeks to evict a tenant whose initial tenancy began by rental from an owner of three or less units after the master deed or agreement establishing the cooperative was recorded, because the owner seeks to personally occupy the unit, or has contracted to sell the unit to a buyer who seeks to personally occupy it and the contract for sale calls for the unit to be vacant at the time of closing;
Rachel (233)-
Thanks for the detail. I learned something today.
#229 suziehomemaker:
I haven’t looked too seriously at townhomes as many of them lack the features that are important to me, like main level family room, 2-car garage, etc. I still monitor the prices and I see many of them still sitting around since last year. From my experience it is much harder to sell a town house than a single family house so make sure you get it at a good price.
My view is that if any homes stays on the market for more than 2 months, I’d knock of 20% of the asking price. Remember, there are still buyers out there and fairly priced homes still find buyers. If the home’s been sitting on the market for months, don’t take the bait and be reeled in.
Housingcrash
We are leaning more towards a t/house, we both have crazy schedules, not too much time for yard work etc. also t/homes seem to have everything we need, we are ready to move whenever we find the right house at the right price, until then we will wait it out. I did go to see those new T/homes on Snyder Ave, the price has dropped, and builder is willing to neg.on price.
Home Seller (231)-
Grossman is a “nervous wreck”? Are you staying in his hotel?
This guy is anything BUT a nervous wreck. He needs to learn that a few nerves are a good thing. That might keep him from throwing at receivers who are triple-teamed.
It might also keep him from saying things like he did after the last regular season game vs. the Packers…things like, “I wasn’t up for this game, and because it didn’t count, I didn’t prepare.”
The history of the Super Bowl is full of the “other” QBs who weren’t expected to do much, but either won the game (Trent Dilfer) or made the other team sweat (Boomer Esiason).
The best place to be leading up the Super Bowl is out of the spotlight, with no expectations.
Thanks Rachel. I think I’m going to stick with the apartments.
Is it customary for tenants to ask owners for a lease breakage fee to be included in the lease? Owner pays fee if the rental is sold and tenant is asked to move before lease expires.
Clot- Nothing else to do this week except listen to the talk shows and interviews w/all the players. Everyone admits Grossman isn’t ready for this.
Colts are a better team period. No one can deny that. Bears special teams is good but the best argument anyone has made for the Bears is forcing alot of turnovers in the game. If that’s the best argument, its pretty weak.
History shows the better team going into the super bowl wins the majority of the time. People either love or hate Peyton but he’s got to be licking his chops for this matchup.
237
Clot- Ravens were a better team period than the Giants in ’00 and so were the 49’ers in ’88. Bears D is nowhere close to the ravens D then. Dilfer had to have a heartbeat in that game to win. In order for the Bears to win (keep up), Rex is going to have to have something like 22-29 for 300 yds and 4 TD’s. Most likely will that happen? No way.
Clot, your best argument actually would be to the weather gods and hope there’s a muddy track.
“When the yen carry trade unwinds, it’s gonna be Armageddon.”
Clot,
Armageddon??? Disclaimer:
The below is only to be viewed to compare the quotes of then and now. Don’t tell me that I’m a disciple of Stephen Roach. When Clot mentioned Armagedon, this came to mind. Come to think of it, the negative spending/splurge/party/credit bubble and liquidity bubble of the late 90’s-present is also reminiscent of this time. Again, only comparing the quotes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLjo7-J1qho
what bubble? Says:
*Can any of you w/ MLS access find out the address for me for MLS # 2320312…I will be forever grateful. Thanks. ***
Well forever is a long time but I’m game
27 Fellswood Drive
OLP: $1,100,000 DOM: 141
And for those who think it is important to know this they paid 360,000 in 1997 but it looks like they also bought the lot along with it. The tax record is a little confusing.
KL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oibk9Zk1_yI&NR
“The best place to be leading up the Super Bowl is out of the spotlight, with no expectations.”
Clot,
…….and the MVP award of all time goes to Max McGee!! Just great theatre. Again, you can’t make this s*it up.
Max McGee, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers and man about town in every town he passed through, was saying good night and/or good morning – it all depended on your point of view – to three full-figured stewardesses, two in the fashion rage of the day – hot pants – and one in a mini-skirt.
“Ladies,” McGee went on, “it’s been a festival, as always. You are all too beautiful for words. I only hope that I more than made up for the disappointment of Paul Hornung not being here.”
“Oh, Max, you were just WON-derful,” said the one in pink leather hot pants.
http://articles.news.aol.com/sports/_a/mcgee-partied-into-early-morning-before/20050905233209990010?cid=1160
Who cares about real estate?
http://www.van-halen.com/
Continued from post 242
The tax record seems to indicate they also paid 360,000 for the other lot. So that means 720,000 because current listing states double lot.
KL
Where’s Jim Plunkett?
FYI, Zillow is starting to become a very powerful tool.
Their data is constantly improving. Six months ago they didn’t have much prior sales data in the towns I watch, and now they have tons of data.
http://www.zillow.com
A great tool, and the birds eye photos are great, when available.
Beer good, work bad.
Van Halen rules. Hot for Teacher.
From my absolute fave sports columnist, Bill Simmons of ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/070202
As for the big game, I’m picking the Bears and taking the seven points. Here’s why:
1. As I mentioned Thursday, everyone in Miami seems to be handing the trophy to the Colts already. … Um, didn’t we learn this lesson already from the Saints-Bears game? You never want to be on the same side as the gambling majority. Ever.
2. The Bears are staying near the airport (not near anything), while the Colts are staying closer to the beach (and closer to all the trouble). That makes it about 20 times as likely that an Indianapolis Colt will be this year’s winner of the Stanley Wilson/Eugene Robinson Award and distract his team in the process. I can’t take the chance.
3. It’s been said a kajillion times, but how can anyone be sold on this Colts defense? Against the Chiefs, the Colts stacked the line against LJ and just made Herm Edwards and Trent Green try to beat them. Against the Ravens, they didn’t even have to stack the line because Jamal Lewis is so freaking slow, so they concentrated on forcing Steve McNair to make mistakes (and he obliged). Against the Patriots, they gave up 34 points and it would have been more if Troy Brown didn’t get flagged for that illegal pick and the fourth-quarter interference against Reche Caldwell had been called. Now you have a Bears team that can pound the ball with two running backs AND has the receivers to throw deep. I know the Colts will stack the line and force Grossman to beat them, but teams have been doing that against the Bears all season — they always seem to make two or three big plays.
4. Peyton Manning’s record in big games: Not so good. A little better recently, but still … not so good. I’d like to see him win one title at the college or pro level before I’m laying seven points with him in a Super Bowl game.
5. Remember when the 2003 Yankees outlasted the Red Sox in that seven-game bloodbath and had nothing left for the Marlins series because it was like they had already played their World Series? I’m not saying the same thing will definitely happen here, but it’s worth mentioning the Letdown Potential here. The Colts and their fans just spent the past two weeks breaking out the popsicles and doing the “we finally made it” routine. Meanwhile …
6. The Bears just went 15-3, made the Super Bowl and then had to spend the next two weeks hearing everyone take shots at their QB and give them little to no chance of winning the game. They have all the makings of being one of those teams that pulls off a mild upset in a championship game and spends the next few days telling everyone stuff like “Nobody believed in us!” and “The only people who believed we could do it were the people in this locker room,” followed by everyone getting annoyed that they won’t shut up that nobody believed in them. But it’s kind of true. Nobody believes in the Bears. That’s the best motivating force in sports. It really is.
Well, I believe in the Bears from Chicago. I see this being one of those Super Bowls that’s crappy and disjointed for most of the first half, followed by a point explosion right near halftime and one of those second halves when the teams just trade scores (like the Pats-Panthers Super Bowl). And in those games, either team can win, right? So here are my predictions.
A. Chicago 33, Indianapolis 30.
B. Thomas Jones for MVP.
C. The greatest Manning Face of all-time.
D. A new record for “nobody believed in us” quotes.
E. A dead heat with the Sports Gal (she’s one game ahead of me and picking the Colts) that can only be decided with the one sporting event that best determines whether you have a gambling problem: The 2007 Pro Bowl. I’m already giddy.
“Who cares about real estate?”
Chi,
Amen. Sometimes we spend too much time nit-picking every little detail regarding RE. Every now and then you just have to disentangle.
“Where’s Jim Plunkett?”
…..well if it was Hail Mary Doug Flutie, you know where my shekels are going!!
ChiFi (247)-
Mr. Plunkett and the Raiders paid for a year of my education. From the time Plunkett took over for Dan Pastorini thru the Super Bowl, the Raiders covered the spread every single week.
http://housingrdc.cme.com/index.html
According to CME, no price increase this year for NYC metro.
“5. Remember when the 2003 Yankees outlasted the Red Sox in that seven-game bloodbath and had nothing left for the Marlins series because it was like they had already played their World Series?”
Clot,
This is sacrilegous of me for bringing this up. However, your theory goes out the window with the 2004 Sax, down 3-0, beat the Crankees and had the overdrive to sweep Budweiser. There was something left in Sam Adams belly.
“From the time Plunkett took over for Dan Pastorini thru the Super Bowl, the Raiders covered the spread every single week.”
Clot,
………forget about any fiduciary responsibilities. It’s only about the spread!!
Rebar (253)-
Do you ever wonder WHO could possibly be long housing in CME’s little derivatives pari-mutuel?
Also, has anyone here ever parsed a HB’s income statement closely enough to determine whether any of them are shorting via CME’s derivatives as a hedge against their horrifying recent performance?
Finally, is it a violation of exchange rules for listed companies to actively bet against themselves via derivatives?
BC Bob (255)-
‘Bout right. Screw fiduciaries, it’s all about me.
Me, me me!
And now, goodnight. Lotta food to cook tomorrow.
Hope your team wins. Unless they’re the Colts.
“Shake it off Johnny, rub some dirt on it!”
Hey, what can I say, I like Peyton Manning so I gotta root for the Colts. As a Giants fan, I just gotta see one Manning do well. I could only hope for little brother to pick it up next year.
Richard Says:
February 3rd, 2007 at 5:26 pm
>>Based on nothing else than sentiment, I say Bears and points. Again only sentiment, certainly not a ringing endorsement of Rex Grossman.
i called indy and the over versus new england due to it being ‘their year’. take the colts and the over again.
I really should just let this go… but who thinks Reecharrd will change his mind and root for Bears?
Based on previous experience, I personally wouldn’t be surprised.
G’nite,
Rich
clot #249
1. Saints-Bears is apples to oranges to this game. People were hoping the Saints would win but they were not the better team.
2. You’re giving the eugene robinson example as a reason to go with the bears? This is really weak. Need something much stronger
3. Clot, give me a good AFC team the bears beat this season. (not an average team, a VERY GOOD team.) Point is, they are prob the 4th or 5th best team in the NFL this year.
4. Forget about Peyton’s record in big games. He just won the biggest game of his life so you can throw that stat out the window. Not a good argument.. Next….
5. Bad example again. I bring you to the ’04 sox. Much more similar…..Peyton is not satisfied beating his arch nemisis…
6. Clot, again, the bears played in an inferior conference. The Colts have only 1 more loss against much better competition this year.
I do agree w/you that there will be an unsung hero (probably Dallas Clark). Anyway, it doesn’t matter. Again, there hasn’t been any “strong” arguments (ie Eugene Robinson) for the Bears…
Colts in a laugher when its all said and done…CBS prays for a competitive game, but I don’t see it….Colts 38-20
Home Seller #9
I’m just wondering what these friends of yours do to make that kind of money.
When I look at the market and only see houses priced from $400,00 and above, I keep telling myself that there is no way that there are enough people making that kind of money to sustain those prices.
I looked up “six figure income” on wikipedia, and saw that only around 6% of inviduals pull in $100,00 a year or more.
But when I see something like what you posted, it makes me wonder, how the hell do people make the kind of dough to afford these houses?
Glen,
In this area, alot more than 6% make 100K + a year. Pretty much any professional with experience makes that kind of money these days.
Of course, most also spend as though they make twice as much as they do,
Glen- Do you think Its really uncommon for a married couple (who both have good jobs) to pull down a combined 6 figures in No. NJ? I don’t…
The group of people that I hang with, most of them purchased pre ’03, so we were very lucky to buy before the runup.
What ADA said in #262 was my main point however. Most (NOT ALL) people I know who pull down that dough spend way more than they should.
From the Star Ledger:
Tax appeals are forcing towns to revaluate
Some of the county’s fastest growing towns, including Cranbury and Plainsboro, have been forced to perform revaluations to bring all property in line with market value, or face the loss of millions of tax dollars in appeals by businesses that feel they are bearing the brunt of the town’s tax burden.
Other towns, like South Brunswick and East Brunswick, have had to reduce the value of their ratable base due to the tax appeals.
“Last year, we had a tremendous amount of lawsuits appealing taxes,” said South Brunswick Mayor Frank Gambatese. “In 2005, it was the first year we had a $50 million reduction in our assessed value and that was all due to tax appeals.”
Gambatese said last year wasn’t much better.
“Our assessed value would have been $120 million, but we had to deduct the losses from tax appeals and that brought us to a little more than $70 million.”
When officials prepare municipal budgets, the size of the town’s total assessed value–or ratables–directly impacts the tax rate. The more ratables a town has, the smaller the tax burden is on individual property owners.
As the residential housing market has boomed in the last decade, the value of existing homes outpaced that of all other properties including commercial or business properties that grew at a slower rate but are taxed at full market value, while pre-existing homes could have decades-old tax assessments.
#264
JB- saw the article today in the ledger. Nice Job.
My favorite highlights from Section Three of the Sunday Ledger, Business Survey
“Right now, mortgage rates are around 6 percent for a 30-year fixed mortgage. About 45 days ago, they were 7 percent, so there has been a full drop of 1 percent.” – Les Newlands, SVP of sales and training for Foxtons
Really? REALLY? Rates were 7% 45 days ago? Was I sleeping?
Question: What are the biggest risks in the market?
Answer from Diane Turton, Founder and president of Diane Turton Realtors: “I really don’t see any. Everyone wants to buy a house. New Jersey is close to Manhattan. Newark is an international airport now. You have an airport in Atlantic City. You have a lot of things in New Jersey you didn’t have 20 years ago.”
Hey Diane, Sophia from the Golden Girls called, she wants her ACE inhibitors back.
Question: What do you think buyers are thinking right now?
Answer from the esteemed James Bednar: “That pressure to buy ‘right now’ is gone.”
Well said.
#248,
Zillow has 2005 prices, good luck trying to sell your house at those levels.
Inventory in NJ are up 2% since last week, with 78,678 properties on the market the pressure is to sell and get out.
Answer from Diane Turton, Founder and president of Diane Turton Realtors: “I really don’t see any. Everyone wants to buy a house. New Jersey is close to Manhattan. Newark is an international airport now. You have an airport in Atlantic City. You have a lot of things in New Jersey you didn’t have 20 years ago.”
Gee, her comment isn’t unbiased at all.
How many people want to live in newark because it has an international airport? How many people have been shotdown in Newark in the past year. Those are pluses?
Everyone wants to buy a house, but not everyone can afford to buy one.
#270
Richie- She painted a very rosy picture, but she obv meant the adv. of having Newark Airport in Northern NJ. Not to live directly in Newark…
Property tax relief can move forward, state’s AG rules
So what are everyone’s thoughts on this? I’d have to agree; giving rebates based on income is a BAD idea. Self-employed people are going to love this. Anyone who’s self employed can easily keep their personal income less then $100,000 to get that 20% tax break on their multimillion dollar home..
-Richie
Home Seller: I know, I was being sarcastic. Aside from that, areas around Newark aren’t better at all. Most stolen cars from towns within a 15 mile radius of newark end up in newark.
#261 Glen & Home Seller #9
I agree with Home Seller’s assessment. Many wall street jobs pay over a $100k. But then again most of these folks work 80 hour work weeks so if you average out, it is really a $50K job where you get to do two shifts.
I see many of my friends at work and otherwise who live far over their income. They own the nicest homes in the city and in the burbs. I have to admit that sometimes I feel a bit of peer pressure, especially after I have been invited to some friends places for dinner and see their pads. But I get over it and am more than happy to live far below my income.
I guess different people have different goals and ambitions in life. For many people it is important to own a nice house at any cost. Me personally my goal is to quit my job at 40 and have enough investments that make enough income for me to maintain a comfortable life styler. I know that this means making sacrifices now and I am willing to do this. This not to say that we don’t enjoy good things in life. My wife is into travel and I am into cars and this is where we spend part of our discretionary income. But we do buy our vacations and cars with cash. No paying off the vacation on an 18% credit cards for the next two years.
#266
This sentence struck me:
“Newark is an international airport now.”
Haven’t they been an international airport for a long time? I can remember seeing my grandmother off on a trip to Europe either in the late 60s or early 70s from Newark Airport. Perhaps it’s only recently that they added the “international” to the name?
I guess this is just propaganda.
#267 Frank Says:
Frank I agree with you about Zillow. I haven’t looked at it in a while, but when i tried it some time back their prices are definitely behind current market values. Seems like a lag in the current market price being reflected in their data/stats. A fsbo home in Berkely Heights had a zillow price over $1 mil which is the price the owner initially listed on forsalebyowner.com. A year later it was listed with a broker in the low $800s. I stopped looking at Zillow since.
27 Fellswood Drive
OLP: $1,100,000 DOM: 141
I know this house – I have driven past it when cutting through from Verona. It’s a great street at the top of the hill right on the border of Verona. It’s tucked away and you would have to drive wherever you were going. It’s not close to the elementary school and there is no busing until middle/high school at West Essex. Most in Essex Fells do not send their children to the public Jr/Sr High.
I know quite a bit about the town and school so if you need more info, let me know.
It’s not a propaganda, it’s just another dumb real estate agent talking.
Willow,
My family thinks I am nuts because I just spent the past five minutes shouting:
“NOW, NOW!!!!, like this is a recent development that you can take international flights from Newark!!!! I guess those international flights I took decades ago were a hallucination!!! NOW, NOW!!!”
You get the picture.
OK, I guess I am being a little too sensitive this morning to the word “now”.
Obviously coming from one of the shillier (TM) NJ RE figure heads, no one should be surprised, or take what she said seriously.
Its this sort of thing that decent agents like Clot and rhymingRE have to contend with when trying to land skeptical (and smart) buyers and sellers. I feel for you guys.
Glen #261
hence the necessity of two incomes per family. And at this rate, your kids’ income from odd jobs will be put on the mortgage app too.
Is it too early to be cranky.
Seneca (278)-
Don’t worry about me (but, thanks for your concern…seriously).
These wizened old cows like Diane Turton are my direct competitors. Every time this haggard shill open her pie hole and spews this utter nonsense, I can feel thousands of potential clients mentally penciling a line thru her name. All the more chance they end up coming my way.
Part of being an honest dealer involves actually paying attention to that word, “honest”. When I speak to prospects, I back up what I say with simple facts. Things are not so bad out there that the truth needs to be hidden or re-worked in any way. It’s really an insult to your client to assume that the truth is so ugly that the client can’t handle it.
For those who want to know what I look like, my photo is on the back page of the business section in the Star Ledger today.
jb
“This sentence struck me:”
“Newark is an international airport now.”
Willow,
I thought the same, like saying Wall Street now trades derivatives. Total nonsense. Remember, they are getting desperate, pulling out any/all stops.
“Newark is an international airport now.”
From Wikipedia:
In the 1970s the airport underwent a significant enlargement, including the construction of the current Terminals A, B, and C, and was renamed Newark International Airport. Terminals A and B opened in 1973, although some charter and international flights requiring customs clearance remained at the North Terminal.
As far as I can tell, Newark has been an international airport for more than 30 years.
jb
KHov in clifton still keeping the prices
at list. amazing.
and traffic seems to be great.
“if you are going to make a move, make it now while you can get a good buy,” Cohen said.
This Cohen guy is an idiot.
Don’t believe what he says.
SAS
Home-builder stocks under scrutiny
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — America’s home-building industry is playing out a 21st-century version of “The Three Little Pigs.”
And as in the original nursery tale, investors are starting to learn which company has followed the example of the clever pig who built his business to withstand the shocks of a housing market blown out by a devastating plunge in sales.
More at link above
“In 2004 and 2005, what we had was a gravy train”
Yeah, so all you moron home owners who bought in 04 and 05 must feel like a fool now. Yes?
Perhaps renting for just another 1 or 2 years would have been alot cheaper and an overall better financial move.
But hey, its your tail, not mine.
SAS
Hey JIM DRISCOLL!!
Face it, its over.
SAS
Hey TOM LAIRD !! (Senior Vice President, Hudson City Savings Bank)
“interest rates right now are still God’s gift to mankind”
Are you really serious when you say this?
Do YOU think you are a god? So, if I went to your bank, it would be devine intervention if you gave me a loan??
Give me a break jack!!
Go back to school and eat your Wheaties little boy.
Son of a gun,
SAS
Unrealtor –
For bird’s eye aerials, have you seen “Microsoft Virtual Earth”?
Noodle around with the 2D feature, and “switch to bird’s eye view” comes up.
Really clear photos – recent, too – from 2005.
“Builders expect land prices to come down severely in 2007 and probably next year,” Barron said. He’s watching firms’ land supplies to “get some gauge for how long it’ll be stuck with the problem.”
Rich in NNJ [287 article],
This is what jumped out at me;
“Severely in 2007 and probably in 2008”.
But they aren’t building land anymore?? I guess it’s time to throw that rhetoric out the window, along with proximity to NY.
The myth; only the bubble areas will be affected,
“The local Delta Faucet Co. plant is reducing the number of people streaming through its doors.”
“Effective today, 53 full-time employees and 17 temporary employees will punch their time cards for the last time as another mass layoff sweeps through the factory. According to a statement released Tuesday, this recent reduction is based on the floundering real estate market.”
“The housing market has been down for some time with a resulting softness in orders for our products. Housing starts were down 12 percent in 2006. Projections for 2007, and the cutbacks by major builders and others, indicate a continued downturn. This reality has caused the company to take the unfortunate action of reducing its full-time workforce,” the statement said.”
http://www.indianaeconomicdigest.net/main.asp?SectionID=31&SubSectionID=117&ArticleID=31789
i just read the Star Ledger Piece and this is my take:
Les Newlands from foxtons is suprisingly candid about the housing market.
Jim Driscol and Tom Laid say what they get paid to do.
Diane Turton had a tanker of botox pumped into her lips before the picture was taken. I didn’t waste time reading what she said, cause I just had breakfast so I was afraid I wouldn’t’ be able to keep it in if i read her bs.
I agree with JB’s views on RE. I think we are eating into Spring sales now.
Most of the others except Tom Laird gave a fairly accurate response.
———————————
The thing to note is they key words for Real Estate is changing from “Location, Location, Location” to “Price, Price, Price”.
Sellers and Buyers take note: It’s about “Price, Price, Price”
Does anyone knows if I can use zillow.com or cyberhomes.com price estimates to dispute my property revaluation??
Jim – good work in Star Ledger!
One of the main reasons I am not buying right now is because of people like Diane Turton. I don’t want the Diane Turton’s of this world to get a single penny from my pocket. If that means I rent for another 5 years – so be it!
Of course, my abstinence would mean nothing to the market – but it gives me immense satisfaction that I am not being taken by the hype.
Newark has always had international flights.
The Burgdoff Realtors ad in today’s Star Ledger today reads, “Now is a good time to buy! Home sale prices have increased – Median existing US home sale prices have increased on average 6.5% each year from 1972 through 2005”
Reading that, I know it’s a good time to wait!
#298 Michelle:”1972 through 2005″
Guess they’d rather forget 2006.
Can someone with access to MLS tell me if the following property closed, and what the sale price was:
MLS 251629
thanks…..
100%+ increase in house prices over 5 years, and recently, a decline of a whopping 10% over the past year or so.
So, a $500,000 home became a $1,000,000 home and is now a $900,000 home.
Time to jump in and buy these “bargains”, just like those who bought stocks on the way down in the early 2000’s.
I have a feeling that many NJ towns are going to re-asses all properties to bring it in line with current market values before the 4% yearly cap becomes law (if it does). I also think they are going to find other ways to increase revenue, like increasing parking fees/fines, handing out traffic tickets more, liberally etc, increase in permit costs for remodel/construction etc. Property taxes are the easiest but not the only way to milk the suckers who voted them to office.
Listen people of NJ. Don’t vote for your party ! Vote for you State !
This is our wake up call. Vote these lying b@#%% out of power or be prepared to hold our ankles forever !!!
RentLord (296)-
Much as I despise the bleatings of broken-down donkeys like Diane Turton, might I also remind that the current environment does offer opportunity for SOME people.
Perhaps the opportunity’s not there for you right now, but others may be in different circumstances.
When the time IS right for you, it might not be prudent to back away, just in order to spite a megalomaniac who splays her obviously-doctored photograph across a Parkway billboard just slightly smaller than Rhode Island.
I always chuckle when I pass that atrocity. It’s sort of like an invitation to dinner at Hannibal Lecter’s.
Oops, got the MLS wrong. It’s
235 1629
Drat! Moderated.
Perhaps WPThemes recognizes “Diane Turton” as an obscenity.
Grim’s cohorts [Star Ledger];
1)Celia Chen- “the biggest risk factor is interest rates. We are predicting the fed will lower rates in the summer bcause the economy is running below potential.On the other hand, recent employment data has been very strong,so there is a risk rates will rise”
Thanks Celia, rates may go down or up. A true economist. Akin to a stock analyst putting out a sell rating on a stock but there is danger that the stock can go up with a good earnings report. Yikes.
2)Les Newlands, Foxton’s; “I think we will be on our way to a recovery. I think we’ll have a solid spring.
Three weeks ago;
“The discount real estate company laid off between 20 and 30 agents Saturday and has stopped taking new listings in Orange, Ulster, Sullivan, Rockland and Putnam counties.”
“Roughly two dozen agents were summoned to an office meeting Saturday morning where they were asked to turn in their cell phones, laptops and company cars, according to the unnamed agent and other sources aware of the meeting.”
“They had arranged to have a cab service there, and that’s what took everybody home,” the agent said.
http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070111/BIZ/701110311/-1/BIZ
Diane Turton, founder and president of Diane Turton, Realtors:
Q: What are the biggest risks in this market?
I really don’t see any. Everyone wants to buy a house. New Jersey is close to Manhattan. Newark is an international airport now. You have an airport in Atlantic City. You have a lot of things in New Jersey you didn’t have 20 years ago.
Q: What forces will drive the market?
Interest rates will drive the market and the media will drive the market. What people read in the paper and what they see on CNN
——————————————-
Can you believe this shit?
No risks to a market?
NJ is close to Manhattan?
Newark is an international airport now?
CNN drives the RE markets?
Shit, if CNN is that good, maybe they will tell me when I will circle the drain too…
Man, any this person sells homes?
Yikes!!
I would rather eat the burritos from the carts guys off the streets and drink the water off the streets of Mexico City.
SAS
Home Seller #263
I don’t think it’s uncommon at all. In fact, I’m in that boat myself. But, if you notice, I said 6% of “individuals”.
I thought you were talking about your single buddies.
AntiTrump,
You can’t fight city hall.
Better off just packing your bags and move out of NJ, or you will be working for the man till the day you drop dead.
SAS
This is our wake up call. Vote these lying b@#%% out of power or be prepared to hold our ankles forever !!!
I’m with you, but I don’t think anything is going to happen. The Democrat/public sector union alliance is just too strong in NJ. Nothing will change here.
I have to agree with SAS; you may be better served by voting with a moving truck.
This is our wake up call. Vote these lying b@#%% out of power or be prepared to hold our ankles forever !!!
I’m with you, but I don’t think anything is going to happen. The Democrat/public sector union alliance is just too strong in NJ. Nothing will change here.
I have to agree with SAS; you may be better served by voting with a moving truck.
Can you believe this shit?
No risks to a market?
NJ is close to Manhattan?
Newark is an international airport now?
CNN drives the RE markets?
We heard the same s**t in the weeks before the NASDAQ crashed. Technology is the way of the future. PE ratios don’t matter anymore. Pick your excuse. Well, it’s 6 years later and the NASDAQ is still less that half of what it was in 2000.
Looks like our host JB showed up in today’s Star Ledger:
Frank #267 writes:
“Zillow has 2005 prices, good luck trying to sell your house at those levels.”
Without Zillow, good luck trying to get prior sales mapped to a satellite photo anywhere else.
I’ve seen sales recorded in Zillow only a few months after the actual sale, and they certainly include 2006 sales.
My initial comment was that Zillow is visibly improving each month, if you don’t want to use it, that’s your call.
I love it.
Re: Zillow
To add, just ignore the “Zestimate” and look at the factual data they provide (prior sales, and where those sales occurred on a satellite map).
RentinginNJ.
good point about the NAZ.
SAS
SAS, #306, that had me laughing.
Can you believe this shit?
No risks to a market?
NJ is close to Manhattan?
Newark is an international airport now?
CNN drives the RE markets?
Shit, if CNN is that good, maybe they will tell me when I will circle the drain too…
Her mug is plastered all over billboards on the way to the shore.
Zillow estimates are running almost $100,000 BELOW comps in our area. The home up the street just sold for $87,000 over estimate.
Check out these *Super Intelligent Couple from today’s NY Times.
http://img184.imageshack.us/my.php?image=idiotsdg8.jpg
I don’t know if they are idiots or not, but the chic is hot. Note to myself: need to visit Rio nightclubs more often.
RentinginNJ Says:
February 4th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
We heard the same s**t in the weeks before the NASDAQ crashed. Technology is the way of the future. PE ratios don’t matter anymore. Pick your excuse. Well, it’s 6 years later and the NASDAQ is still less that half of what it was in 2000.
Rent: I distinctly remember a Morgan Stanley analysts [not Mary Meeker] come out and say “interest rates don’t matter anymore” not as a lament, but rather an argument to buy.
BC Bob Says:
February 3rd, 2007 at 11:04 pm
However, your theory goes out the window with the 2004 Sax, down 3-0, beat the Crankees and had the overdrive to sweep Budweiser. There was something left in Sam Adams belly.
Bost: actually you know phonetically it is “the Sawx”.
However, if you are going to bring up the Crankees and Sax….I got a story…
Back in 1984 (I think), Lasorda and the Dodgers were trying to convert Pedro Guerrero from a right fielder to a 3B (think Bobby Bonilla). Anyway, he was an absolute Butch (the Butcher) Hobson out there. He was so bad, that Lasorda pulled him aside and tried to work a little psychology with him.
Lasorda: “OK, Pedro, when the pitcher is in the windup and you are coming set, what is the first thing you think?”
Pedro: “I hope they don’t hit it to me!”
L: “Ugh. OK, what is the second thing you think?”
P: “I hope they don’t hit it to [Steve] Sax.”
Patience is a killer in the winter, when combined with cabin fever. My vow to hold out on home-buying is under trial by boredom.
Today, my husband and I discussed moving and renting a different house just for something to do over the next year. Sick.
CF, you sound like you’ve been homebound a lot lately for some reason.
Years ago, with an 8 week-old, I used to boot-up Oregon Trail and name the characters after people at work, then starve them so they’d get dysentery or measles. It helped a little. Next day at work, I’d feel much more love for them, too.
:)
2.) JAMES BEDNAR
chief blogger, “New Jersey Real Estate Report” blog (njrereport.com)
grim: what the f—– is this?
When did this turn into the NJ RE Indian Reservation Blog? So what tribe are you? Ramapo, Shinnecock, Cliftioux, or the Polska Kilebasago.
Why let a little thing like the NJ Constitution hinder this Band-Aid-on-a-sucking-puncture-wound property tax legislation?
Welcome to the USSNJ.
Lloyd Blankfein must look at Corzine’s portrait in Goldman’s boardroom and want to bust it up and feed it into the fireplace.
UnCola (314)-
So, basically, we should ignore the feature of Zillow (the “Zestimate”) that they tout above all others as their most unique and distinguishing feature?
That’s like taking somebody to McDonald’s for the first time and ordering him a fish sandwich.
Zillow is now so overmatched and so completely useless, that they’re just trying to layer on “features”. Big f*&^%n’ deal.
grim:
Nice job on that article. Your quotes are sobering, and they come early in the article. You are going to get a lot of eyeballs.
You got all the main points in there with machine-like precision. What a coup!
Frank (295)–re: using online evaluations as basis for property tax assessment appeal. Definitely not. To contest your assessment you need sale prices of homes comparable to yours in your area. The tax assessor’s office probably keeps a record of these sales at your municipal building. Your municipality can also probably give you all the details of the process, and what other evidence might be acceptable. And, most importantly, although you can look up your neighbors’ assessments in the tax rolls, you cannot base an appeal of your assessment on theirs. Hope this helps.
JAMES BEDNAR, YOU ROCK!!! I loved the article. Quite frankly, you were much to cordial. If it was me, I would’ve came across like Tony Soprano on some of these answers. You’re much too kind.
And a message to that used house salesperson, Diane Turton: Honey, put down the pipe and the bottle, I know it’s painful for you, it’s been a good run, you fleeced many like no other. I know denial is tough but you can do this. The rehab will be over before you know it. Here’s a tissue darling… it’s ok, let it out.
“Bost: actually you know phonetically it is “the Sawx”.”
Chi,
Getting ready for kickoff. Major blunder by me, yes the Sawx. Damn I lived with 4 Butch Hobson wannabes. Can’t believe I said wannabes!! It grows on you.
By the way, great story by Lasorda. Who was worse with the throws, Steve Sax or Chuck Knoblauch??
Clotpoll, if you think about Zillow as an awareness tool, and one of the steps up the mountain toward information flow, does it change your mind? I would think a lot of regular folks have been on Zillow who had no idea that some of that information was even out there.
Could we realistically go from the hodge-podge of info that was out there before, directly to home without Zillow-type attempts? Yeah, they might not have the customer’s best interest in mind right now, and the dis-information could hurt some people, but in the end, it’s experiments like this that end up with the ah-ha moment.
Pat (330)-
I’m with you up until the point at which we have to remember that Zillow is trying to turn a profit by essentially promulgating inaccurate information to the public.
If they get stomped to death by a better company- with a better, more accurate mousetrap- well, hey…that’s creative destruction for you.
Go Bears!
“Zillow is now so overmatched and so completely useless, that they’re just trying to layer on “features”.”
Zillow is “overmatched”? By what? Post some links, would be glad to see alternatives.
I recently looked up a property, and Zillow had nice little flags all around it on the map, where each yellow flag meant a recent sale occurred. I was telling the realtor about comps, not the other way around.
But do share a link if you know of something better.
Pat #321, you need to find a hobby to take your mind off RE. Knitting? Raquetball? Tennis?
But could those ever be as interesting as watching comps drop each month?
This time last year, Zillow was spewing zestimates that were around 15-20% more than the asking prices of most homes I was looking at.
Today, they seem to be spewing zestimates that are around 15-20% less than asking prices.
Their comps are getting more timely and those are helpful. And I do love the birds eye view, its a wonderful tool that helps me eliminate new listings that are too close to the Conrail line.
Is anyone else laughing just a tiny little bit at all the people who paid $6000 to sit in the rain in Miami today? C’mon, just a little?
After all, this blog is all about the schadenfreude.
can u believe this? This guy is doing exactly what Osama bin Laden wants him to do….
“Bush’s $2.9 trillion request is ‘sticker shock'”
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/02/04/bush.budget.ap/index.html
SAS
BC Bob, you don’t know how right you are about the hobbies.
Been threatening the Mr. with another baby at our age. Did it again this morning, and later he said, out of the blue, “I really think we should move. Just to move. It’ll be fun. How about it?”
Hahahha. That’s how I know how he REALLY feels.
Meant UnRealtor…;}
SAS, not following — FDR was suckered by Hirohito?
Grossman better step up….the Bears defense is two steps away from being gassed. If Chicago can’t keep their offense on the field, right about the end of the third quarter, it will look as if the Colts are running downhill. Without two big plays, the Bears are down two touchdowns.
It is nowhere near as close as it looks at halftime :(
Best Super Bowl halftime show ever?
“U2 – Where The Streets Have No Name”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1NqKeam_Hw
JB said: “I believe first-time home buyers really drive the market. If they can’t afford to buy a home, the move-up buyer can’t move up and the retirees can’t move out of state”.
=============================================
Damn right we drive the market (down)!!!
No golden retirement for you, bagholders!
Moving most of my green (soon to change color) to the Home of the Cuckoo Clock!
I’m gonna fold ’til 2008.
Pass me the popcorn Liareah, my boy!
BTW, 24 hours till the spring season starts..
Monday inventory to show the biggest gain ever!
Now is a good time to buy…
“U2 – Where The Streets Have No Name”
Unrealtor,
Stupendous!! Best by far, no other halftime show even comes close. Chills down the spine. Great to watch it again. My wife said, whoever posted this has his act together. Bono is her favorite. Thanks for the post!!
Sorry fellas…
I think BONO is a Peckerwood. If he slipped on a bananna peel, I couldn’t care.
SAS
wsj
Rising Stocks Kindle Worries Of a ‘Melt-Up’
By SCOTT PATTERSON
February 5, 2007
Word is spreading on Wall Street that stocks may get rocked this year. It’s not a meltdown investors are jabbering about: It’s a melt-up.
That may sound like party time for investors. But a melt-up — Street-speak for a dramatic increase in stock prices — can pose significant risks. Surging markets are more likely to drag in mom and pop investors who don’t want to miss the boat. Trouble is, they often pile in when the boat is overloaded and about to sink.
Wall Street always has both bulls and bears, of course. Skeptics say stocks are on the verge of a big drop due to a weak consumer and housing market. But the call for a striking rally is rising, stifling the warning cries of the bears.
For months the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been knocking off record highs like ducks in a pond. That could suggest stocks don’t have much room to advance. But the Standard & Poor’s 500 still is 5.2% below its March 2000 high, and the Nasdaq Composite Index is a whopping 51% beneath its March 2000 record.
Most analysts expect stocks to post modest gains this year after a strong showing in 2006. But others, such as James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, say the market may be shaping up for a powerful surge. The result: Investors too jittery to venture back into stocks dive in feet first, causing stocks to rise even more.
“I think people are going, ‘Am I missing out here?'” said Mr. Paulsen. He argues a stronger-than-expected economy, tame inflation and solid earnings should cause stocks to keep churning higher, ultimately winning over the skeptics and pushing the S&P 500 as far as 1675, 16% above Friday’s close.
Such a rally may not play out in a straight line, he warns. Stocks could see a sharp downturn before moving higher. If the housing market takes a turn for the worse or oil prices suddenly jump — two factors that have restrained stocks in recent years — all bets are off. Skeptics also note that earnings, though still high, are slowing.
Another factor: private equity and hedge funds.
As private-equity funds snap up public companies, the available pool of shares shrinks, which can cause the stocks left behind to move higher as investors such as mutual funds shift assets around. Record levels of share buybacks have also been cutting into the kitty of available shares. Buybacks more than tripled from 2003 to 2006.
As for hedge funds, more of these fast-moving investors in recent months have been making short bets that stocks will drop than long bets that they’ll rise, says Mary Ann Bartels, Merrill Lynch’s chief market analyst. Such short bets involve selling borrowed shares in hopes of replacing them with cheaper ones later. If the market surges, the shorts will have to buy more shares to stanch the bleeding of their bearish bets, causing short-covering rallies.
A melt-up could carry the seeds of its own destruction, warns Mr. Paulsen. If stocks roar ahead, inflation is likely to tick up, leading to significantly higher interest rates. “The dark side of this is that we can’t grow the market that much and not have an inflation problem,” he said.
In other words, what melts up must melt down.
That was possibly the worst football game I have ever watched. Seemed like a neutral-field pre-season game, not the Super Bowl.
What an embarrassment for the NFL. A half-empty stadium and two narcoticized teams slagging it out.
We nearly turned off the TV and went to Zillow…but, nah.
UnCola, there is a more accurate and dependable source fo home valuations than Zillow: it’s called a competent Realtor. However, it seems as though your top priority in RE is to avoid us, so you seem to have achieved your goal.
Good luck in your efforts to purchase based upon comps that can be over 100K off. Sounds groovy.
UnCola,
So now you’re telling Realtors what the comps are, based upon Zillow?
You might do us the courtesy of not mentioning them while the agent you’re speaking to has a mouthful of milk or coffee.
It’s really painful to blow a beverage thru your nose when somebody tells a real “knee-slapper”!
Pat #321: I am with you. I already painted all the walls in my apt. Maintenance replaced my bathroom floor. Now I want new vinyl floor in the kitchen. I am ready to pay for it out of pocket just for something new. When I decide to replace the kitchen cabinets, it is time for me to find a hobby. lol
Clot-
Rookie question: Why is Zillow so off the mark? Where do they get their data from?
afe
AntiTrump Says:
February 4th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
I have a feeling that many NJ towns are going to re-asses all properties to bring it in line with current market values before the 4% yearly cap becomes law (if it does). I also think they are going to find other ways to increase revenue,
Dude Do you realie WHAT ARE YOU SAYING???
In Sommercet county tax rates are at 4.6-5% of assesed values…
It means for craappy fixer uppers taxes of 15000/year!!!
I do not think so. If this will happen – that would be the end of NJ.
Anyways after looking at the starter homes in middlesex and Sommerset counties, our family have decided to rent for 1-2 years and either buy non-starter home if priced drop significantly – 20-30%(not likelly), or move out.
NJ is just way to unaffordable for anyone making under 150K and wanting to have kids…..
Just for info – just talked to my friend who bought a house in Albuquerque, NM his house – 600,000K in NM – in the upper 10% un the city.
His taxes… 1900$/year and he complains that they are too high.
#351
“NJ is just way to unaffordable for anyone making under 150K and wanting to have kids…..”
Ok, let me run some #’s here…if youre making around 150K, your prob clearing around 8K/month. Assuming you have a 350K mortgage, you prob pay 3K/month in mortg. and prop taxes…..you’re telling me you can’t survive on 5K/month after all costs? I don’t get it…
AFE (353)-
Zillow claims that they employ an “algorithm” to deduce values of specific homes. A myriad of local factoids are run thru this filter, and voila: your “Zestimate”. As I’ve opined before, a cage full of monkeys rolling dice, with the outcomes run thru the “algorithm”, would probably be more accurate.
The real underlying idea behind Zillow is the notion that RE can be turned into a commodity, just as the founder did with travel services (his prior business was Expedia.com). The implicit underlying assumption is that once RE is a commodity, then a RE professional, who employs marketing, negotiation and transaction managment skills, will be rendered irrelevant, much in the same way Expedia killed off travel agents.
Unfortunately, up to this point, RE has resisted commoditization. Maybe they should’ve stuck with plane tickets and car rentals.
Google Maps in Hybrid mode with a good tax records site right next to it makes a pretty good combo. If there are any techies here, take a look at the Google Maps API, very powerful and easy to use. I’ve played around with trying to link tax and sales records with the Google sat maps and it’s pretty easy. My only issue is getting enough historical data to make it worthwhile.
I notice that RealtyTrac has recently integrated the same map and pushpin model to map foreclosures, etc. People really seem to get a kick out of flying around these maps.
jb
HomeSeller: If you are grossing 150k a year, you only net about 101k a year which is about 3800 a month. Got to pay that Fed and Social Security, not to mention contribute to IRAs and 401k.
Clot, still waiting for your links to something better than Zillow.
Gotta love reading #347 and #348 right after each other. :)
Home Seller Says:
February 5th, 2007 at 12:17 am
#351
“NJ is just way to unaffordable for anyone making under 150K and wanting to have kids…..”
Ok, let me run some #’s here…if youre making around 150K, your prob clearing around 8K/month. Assuming you have a 350K mortgage, you prob pay 3K/month in mortg. and prop taxes…..you’re telling me you can’t survive on 5K/month after all costs? I don’t get it…
hey did not I say: NJ is just way to unaffordable for anyone making under 150K and wanting to have kids…..
It is affordable for anybody making 150K or around it. that was my point.
Now calculate the same with 100K.
thats about 5K/month.
Do not forget health insurance, car insurance, food gasoline, medical expenses and baby related expenses.
And I believe I would be very misunderstood if I come to work in t-shirt&Jeans ot in a stained old sweats.. I do not want to test it.
Should we get into 401K + 529K savings?? House upkeep??? Car repairs/maintenance (that is assuming you do not have car payments).
Life emergencies – always happens , like denatl stuff… Kids braces cost up to 6-10K….
Student loans – I do not see high school graduates getting 100k+ salaries.
but may be soon in NJ – there was a post about school painter in NJ who was clearing close to 100K/year with overtime – all I need to do is become relative of governer of school board administrator.
So before you give all of this 150K crap, read my post – under 150K – and yes I see 149K coming right back at me already.
Who can help me with .httpaccess ?
where i can fined full information about .httpaccess file syntaxis?
Clot (#356) – thanks for the background.
Zillow provides three types of data:
1) Actual sales information as recorded by townships.
2) Visually placing that township sales information onto a satellite map.
3) A “Zestimate” which is mostly useless.
Since Zillow empowers consumers with information, it’s no wonder that those who seek to control information (realtors) attempt to mock and denigrate this increasingly useful tool.
There’s no dismissing Zillow data (items #1 and #2 above) — it’s the transaction data as recorded by the township.
#358
Check your numbers again, you are way off. What I take home is not that far off from that # and I make no where near 150K
AL #354 20 to 30% is very likely, we are already seeing 10 to 15% drops, just be patient, the fun kicks into full gear this Spring.
#361
Al, no need to get defensive, I was just creating a conversation and testing your numbers that’s all.
You don’t have to tell me all the costs it takes to survive. I have 2 small kids and don’t make 100K/year. I was fortunate that I bought several years ago and my mortgage is a little more than 1/2 what I mentioned above. Still, there is no way to get ahead living here. That’s why the family and I are relocating. Life is too short to struggle like this.
I AGREE with you that if you are a 1st time home buyer (w/kids) and you make around 100K, you basically are screwed if you want a decent house in NJ. You just can’t keep up, we all know that.
HomeSeller: My mistake, I was calculating bi-weekly. Oops!
thatbigwindow: hey I checked out the house on Elm in RE thatIi had asked you about last week. It is a really nice house, a little cosmetics,a nd it would be great.
But the $9551 tax bill is just too ugly, even with a low ball bid.
I spoke with the realtor for a little bit, and she acknowledged that the taxes were high, but stated, sheo does not belive that taxes in River Edge can go any higher.
When I pointed out that the constructuion at Cherry Hill once completed will require the hiring of new teachers,and aides, and custodian, and heating and electric, it was like a light bulb went on, and she then said Gee I had not even thought about that. Scary but true..
Unrealtor (#364), thanks….afe
Karl Rove (364) is at it again. For about the 37th- and it never ceases to be tiresome- time, I’m firmly on the record as being AGAINST ANY hoarding of information by the RE industry. The “nuts and bolts” aspects of Zillow are what they are: facts. Those you can get anywhere. And the “Zestimate”…well, it is what it is. And, Mr. Rove readily and accurately admits it is a POS.
However, in response to Mr. Rove’s post (359), asking for “links” to something better, the “Zestimate” is the selfsame proof that ANY method of home valuation (including the consultation of a tarot advisor) is better than Zillow.
Why? Because that “Zestimate” cannot be dismissed. Because without the agent-replacing, “revolutionary” algorithm of the Zestimate, all Zillow is…is a compilation of facts. The “Zestimate” is supposed to be what replaces the live, human agent as the analyst that applies context and insight to raw fact. Without the Zestimate, Zillow is nothing more than a glorified compendium of sales records, married to some cool satellite photos. How’s any of that going to make a transaction happen for a buyer or seller?
Mr. Rove appears now to have become so agent-phobic that he’s willing to swallow raw data and tell us it has the taste of actionable knowledge. However, in the real NJ marketplace, the spread between bid and ask grows ever greater. Having seen this before, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb to suggest that human effort- and not those of some algorithm stored in a server- will eventually break this market logjam and allow the normal dealings of buyer and sellers to resume at an orderly pace.
Zestimate? Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.