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Great piece on MarketWatch by Rex Nutting.
Will ‘lemming loans’ drive economy off the cliff?
For the first time in the nation’s history, a significant number of Americans are being threatened with the loss of their home even though they still have a steady, good-paying job.
It’s not just an issue for people with poor credit, those with subprime loans. It also affects people with good enough credit to qualify for a prime loan. Known as Alt-A mortgages, these loans were written for 1 in 5 U.S. mortgages and could have a big impact on the economy and on credit markets — bigger, perhaps, than the effects of the recent shockwaves buffeting the subprime-lender market, economists say.
…
Demand will continue to fall. Tougher mortgage underwriting standards will eliminate about 20% of the potential buyers, including 50% of the subprime buyers and 25% of the Alt-A buyers, according to estimates by Credit Suisse.
…
In a weak market, some homeowners facing a large payment shock would find it difficult, if not impossible, to refinance their loan or sell their home for what they owe on it. About 13% of the owners who face a mortgage rate reset this year have less than 5% equity in their home, and therefore will not be able to refinance unless they have other assets.
If prices fall 5%, the percentage with no equity would grow to 23%, according to Christopher Cagan, director of research for First American CoreLogic, a mortgage research firm in Sacramento. And if prices fall 10%, it would jump to 35%.
…
So far, defaults and foreclosures in the subprime market have received all the attention. The latest data show that more than 14% of subprime adjustable-rate loans were delinquent at the end of 2006, compared with 2.3% for prime fixed-rate loans.
However, Goldman Sachs economists have concluded that delinquency rates are rising nearly as fast for the riskiest prime ARMs, the loans some are calling “toxic loans,” or “exploding mortgages.”
It might be more accurate to call them “lemming loans,” however, because that metaphor best describes the mass insanity and suicidal financial consequences of such loans.
(emphasis added)
Rex Nutting? It sounds like “Dirk Diggler”.
Husband wants to move West – Arizona, New Mexico (like the desert) or even Colorado.
Seriously considering it. If nothing else, can rent some California fools “investment property” for next to nothing (brand new 4 bed 3 bath, pool, $950 month) to see if we like it.
Sorry to ruin your weekend, but it’s bailout time. From Bloomberg:
Ohio Plans Bonds to Bail Out Homeowners Strapped by Mortgages
Ohio, which had the highest foreclosure rate among the 50 U.S. states at the end of 2006, plans to issue $100 million in taxable municipal bonds next month to help homeowners refinance mortgages they can’t afford.
Proceeds of the bond issue by the Ohio Housing Finance Agency will provide financing for about 1,000 loans with a fixed rate of about 6.75 percent, said Robert Connell, the agency’s director of debt management.
“We believe that it is incumbent on this agency to do something to assist these folks to enable them to keep their homes,” Connell said. “A $100 million bond from this agency is not going to solve Ohio’s foreclosure problem. We hope to at least make a dent.”
…
Ohio will begin rolling out the refinancing program on April 2, Connell said. The loans will be limited to homeowners whose income is up to 125 percent of the median income of their county.
“It will be available to the residents of Ohio to take them out of their adjustable-rate mortgages, their interest-only mortgages and avail them the opportunity to move into a fixed rate mortgage which may now benefit their individual financial situation,” Connell said.
Kansas City, Missouri-based George K. Baum & Co. will manage the bond sale for Ohio’s finance agency. The bonds will taxable because the U.S. tax code prohibits states and local governments from using proceeds of tax-exempt bonds to refinance existing mortgages, Connell said.
#5 JB Time to take up arms.What a bunck of wussies today, no baliouts for peopel in the early 90’s, thye sucked it up, and dealt with it.
JB RICH or TBW, Any of you guys know hat happened to this njmls listing 2705361. Thanks!
This is truly sickening – zero accountability.
Counting the minutes until Dodd picks up this brilliant idea and runs with it.
What a country.
bergenbubbleburst Says:
March 23rd, 2007 at 4:53 pm
#5 JB Time to take up arms.
BBB: What are “Up ARMs”? Is that a new type of mortgage? I thought they were tightening lending standards?
NJ Bailouts are coming soon, ( scarcasm )
One time offer, we will convert your garbage loan into a nice shiny fixed rate loan at 4% And if you have low income it could be even lower!
Helocs no problem, seconds no problem!
We will makw the bad stuff go away. Using conventional mortgage payment ( link here ) we can caluculate how much you can REALLY PAY and then match a loan and a term for you!
800 K duplex in Fort Lee, you make 100K 40 year loan at 2%
NJ Cares!
maybe this was posted somewhere else today, but there’s long article in NY Times today about Shaker Heights, Ohio, which has now taken on the task of maintaining now-vacant foreclosed homes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/23/us/23vacant.html?ref=us
#4 – That kind of bailout doesn’t bother me so much – they only get help if they can actually pay a 30 year loan for the amount they borrowed. Presumably, if they can’t (which would be a lot of people who could only ever afford the teaser rate) , the house will still end up on the market or they will still end up in foreclosure.
rents in CA. are sky high unless you want to live in your carhttp://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0721biz-rents21.html..
rents in CA. are sky high unless you want to live in your car http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0721biz-rents21.html..
I’m watching this video, and all I can think is Hugh Grant on Jay Leno after the Divine Brown incident. What a 180!
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v_7SvO87B7Io.asf
grim: un-moderate please!
Does anyone remember RTC, Resolution Trust Corporation, 1990. Did we learn from this?
Bundles of BAD Loans sold for pennies on the dollar. Lenders competing against each other right into the garbage pit! Another
Ponzi Scheme.
Now it is Mortgage Brokers competing against each other.
The Bankers were smart they got out of this business.
There’s a big difference between market regulation and market interference. What Ohio is working on is clearly interfering in the market and I hope somebody somewhere comes to their senses.
As sad as it is, people have to lose their homes. Paying off those loans and issuing new ones gets the banks off the hook, and that is a huge mistake.
Yeah, I did a little RTC work. Great for the accountants and attorneys. We never learn, cause it’s really just another turn on the merry-go-round. Same bad dream over and over..you run and run and do the same things and never finish.
Everybody gets their bucks out of every cycle, as long as they stay on the horse.
The trick is learning when to put your hand out for the brass ring.
I missed the action on the NAR existing home sales report, but I just wanted to note that Lereah seems to be hedging about March.
Using the ever valuable charts at Calculated Risk, I was able to see that in both 05 and 06 the Feb. to March jump nationally was better than 35% in both years.
I’m guessing we’re under that significantly this year, unless Feb. gets a sizable downward adjustment, and probably even if it does.
If you take out even 10% of the market which might be entirely attributable to the changes in lending standards, sales for March can come in under 500K. If that happens, and I think it will, the recession talk begins in earnest.
Ohio is a known welfare state. You almost wonder what else they can do…Cleveland is basically Trenton x 20.
clot: Ohio and Florida decide national elections – people are going to care
ChiFi (21)-
Yep, people are going to care. However, Ohio and Florida are states that are either controlled by a giant Republican backer who builds voting machines (Diebold- in Ohio), or the machine of the prez’ brother (Bush-Fla).
Even the welfare class is disenfranchised. Serves ’em right…they don’t pay enough taxes.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/22/technology/fastforward_secondlife.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes
Is there a place in Second Life for an avatar holding a sign near one of these CB properties that says “BAGHOLDERS BEWARE” OR “TAKE AT LEAST 25% OFF!”
Apparently, CB bought up some space and is selling for 20 bucks a pop. Lowball?
I did some house hunting today. Subprime loans are alive and well. With a wink and a nod the realtor told me she knew people who could get me 100% financing or get me money if my credit just wasn’t there.
BBB,
MLS 2705361
ACT $569,900 6/1/06 (MLS 2621643)
PCH $549,900 6/22/06
PCH $524,900 9/10/06
PCH $519,900 9/21/06
EXT $519,900 11/27/06
ACT $509,000 (relist, same broker, 2705361) 2/8/07
ACT* $509,000 3/14/07
U/C $509,000 3/21/07
With a wink and a nod the realtor told me she knew people who could get me 100% financing or get me money if my credit just wasn’t there.
Give me a high enough yield and even I’ll give you the loan.
jb
From the Record:
FAA plan would reroute jet traffic over Bergen
The skies over several quiet Bergen County communities will likely get a lot louder as soon as August.
The FAA announced Friday that it wants to move ahead with a plan to redesign the metropolitan region’s air space. The plan, the FAA claims, would reduce delays at the major airports by increasing the number of flights traveling over the county.
The changes would increase aircraft noise over Westwood, Park Ridge, Montvale, River Vale, Woodcliff Lake, Hillsdale, Emerson and Upper Saddle River. The FAA says noise levels in the towns would rise by at least 9 decibels, to an average of roughly 48 decibels, which is the equivalent of slow-moving automobile traffic 100 feet away.
From the LA Times:
Bloggers: alternative voices on housing risks
Foreclosures are rising. Prospective buyers with shaky credit can’t get loans. And with the spring home sale season starting to blossom, buyers and sellers are trying to divine which way the market is heading.
In years past, real estate agents were often the only sources people could turn to for information on the state of the market. But increasingly, bloggers are filling that role, touting themselves as independent sources in a field crowded with vested interests.
Some of these scribes have earned the respect of mainstream industry observers who credit them with being ahead of the curve. Kudos have come their way for predicting that the real estate bubble would burst and warning borrowers about the dangers of high-cost sub-prime loans with artificially low teaser rates.
“Some of the best reporting in the past year has been from the blogs,” said Bradley Inman, the publisher of Inman News, a real estate trade publication. “The bloggers were unabashed critics. They were unconstrained about what they said.”
27-
No way, too much money too much clout.
Grandparents lived in New Hyde Park ( worse than fort lee prices BTW ) before there was commerical aviation . When Grandma left after Grandpa died every 1-2 minutes the planes flew over.
Although HIV is a problem, I really don’t see this such a priority, unless there is some govt kickback from test makers & buisness companies? This isn’t Africa..
“N.J. eyes HIV tests for moms, newborns”
http://tinyurl.com/2njbzr
SAS
Does anyone know how to find out who the current owner is for mls 2366744 and 2366766?
These properties had been owned by the same guy who built the houses on Valley Road in Clifton.
These two lots had a preconstruction sign out with Coldwell Banker for more than a year and a half. Construction has recently begun, and now there is a Weichert sign out front.
I’m just curious whether they still belong to Yagins (Valley Rd guy) or someone else.
Thanks in advance!
Lisoosh,
My wife and I are considering the SouthWest too. If you have never been there you must see it in the summer before you commit. Monsoon Season in AZ is a miserable 2 months and Tucson has high crime. ABQ has winters and high crime.
Jaywalk,
Owner is sometimes on listing, it is not in this case, can be found out in the tax records but any change in ownership does not show-up on tax records for 6-12 months
KL
Tournament: Elite Eight – 4 1’s, 3 2’s and a 3…..unprecedented…and boring
Clotpoll Says:
March 23rd, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Ohio is a known welfare state. You almost wonder what else they can do…Cleveland is basically Trenton x 20.
Lee Harvey: Cleveland is Cleveland, but it is laid back, has an nice clean classic industrial downtown, RnR HOF, nice sprts venues and a warehouse restaurant district, as well as the (cheesy) Flats. There are a lot of other towns that think they are a whole lot more and are damn sure a whole lot less.
I agree ChiFi. I had fun in Cleveland when I was last there. Can’t say the same for Trenton, corporations know that too, that is why there is only one hotel in the city.
Jay
You definitly should have bought when it was preconstruction they were only 599,000 now their 629,000 -you fool!
KL
(sally’s sometimes evil twin)
Jim,
Airplanes have to fly somewhere. I think of my poor wife’s grandparents in Flushing Queens with the LaGuardia flight path right over their house at 1000-2000 feet. Conversation stopped because you could hear little but the engines. Of Bergen County will complain loudly.
From Today’s NY Times.
Ripples From the Subprime Storm
http://homefinance.nytimes.com/nyt/articlePrint/2007.03.23.25mort/
____________________________________________
SOME homeowners may have skipped recent articles about the subprime mortgage meltdown, thinking it’s of interest only to investors. But mortgage industry professionals say that the subprime collapse has significant implications for all homeowners — even those with good credit.
“This will have a circular effect on a lot of things, including housing prices,” said Steve DeLaney, the director of research for Flagstone Securities, based in St. Louis.
People with good credit wishing to upgrade from their starter homes this year and next could struggle to find buyers, Mr. DeLaney said, since such houses are typically bought by those with weaker credit and less cash for down payments — subprime borrowers. That situation, in turn, could affect the market for those wishing to sell higher-priced homes. “So if I’m living in my house,” Mr. DeLaney said, “I may well not be able to buy a new house next year like I’d hoped.”
The subprime mortgage industry, which offers loans to those with poor credit, has reached a crisis point because borrowers have begun defaulting on those loans in large numbers. Investors who bought the loans in bulk from lenders are dumping the failed mortgages back in the laps of the lenders, and those companies, like New Century Financial, General Electric’s WMC Mortgage, and others, have either stopped lending or have limited the conditions under which they will lend to subprime borrowers.
_________________________________________
Laying Blame and KB Home’s Results
http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=108
Provides a good general summary of the Senate Banking Committee hearing on the Subprime meltdown as well as the first quarter results for KB Home that saw earnings plummeting 84% as well as providing the disclosed that 13% of their buyers in 2006 financed their purchase with subprime loans.
Originally aired on: 3/22/2007 on Nightly Business Report
Running Time: 2 minutes 57 seconds
http://www.fresnobee.com/170/story/36294.html
Seeking stakeholders.
Any NJ papers doing a squeeky wheel survey?
Playing devil’s advocate today: on the bail out plans, it’s worth considering what could happen when many people start losing their homes. An empty house is a carcass – it starts to decay, and it makes everything around it less appetizing. In a down market, the house will sit unsold. The longer it sits, the more dilapidated & vandalized it becomes and the further it reduces the market value of the homes around it. The reduction in value may push already stressed mortgagees over the edge as they become underwater (or further underwater) and unable to sell or refinance and the option to walk away becomes more attractive. As each borrower loses a home or walks away from a home, the decay spreads further. Each vacancy reduces the economic viability of the community, affecting revenues of community businesses and tax collections. Each vacancy reduces the feeling of community or neighborhood. Each vacancy is an opening for an infection by an undesirable element.
To the extent the situation is deemed temporary, it may make sense for a community to step up and try to keep people in their homes. It’s the same reason cities and states will give tax breaks and incentives/concessions to keep businesses from moving (or going into bankruptcy) or to attract new businesses. It’s not always about today’s dollars and cents, but overall health of the community.
ChiFi (34)-
Lemme tell you, I was pretty excited last night at about 12:00 of the 2nd half, as USC was opening a can of whoop-a all over my Heels. I gave my new plasma its first “stress test”: a metal bowl full of popcorn. Seems to have taken the licking pretty well.
Of course, reason and sanity prevailed in the end. SC just totally ran out of gas.
#42 These foreclosed homes will get sold and life goes on. I’d rather not have my tax dollars lining the pockets of the mortage brokers who got these people in the mess anyway.
politely (42)-
And sometimes, you just have to let the disease run its course. Or, to use another analogy: forest fires are destructive in the short-term, but are essential to the long-term health of an ecosystem.
And, how do you keep people in homes within neighborhoods where the driving market dynamic has been cash out/cash back mortgage fraud?
Better to let it all go to hell and start over.
#3 Lisoosh, #32 metroplexual:
Monsoon Season in Tucson is a miserable 2 months – dead on.
Tucson has high crime – yes, CA began exporting its ‘juvenile’ problem about 5-6 yrs ago (free housing for the angry young CA ex/gangsta’)
Expect bad things to happen to your car (gangsta initiation ritual) at least once a year, unless you live in the hills with da’ rich boyz.
and last, but not least
What better place to be stranded than in an oasis?
Phoenix is 2hrs north
San Diego – 6-7 hrs west
LA about 8 ..
45 and 42
The disease analogy is good except that it can ( like an infection of the bone ) eventually kill the entire patient.
And while you might not be in the “bad” part of town. Most people in America are in some sort of service related industry. I care for Patients, someone else mows their lawns, someone else teaches their kids, ect ect ect.
So even the bad areas can affect your area. And then we are all ( the whole body/town ) become sick.
Think the sat. pictures of Kedzie Chicago or Detroit where there are townhouse style buildings with empty bulldozed lots inbetween, and 1/4 filled blocks like that.
You would hope someone would come in and build or set up shop but unless it’s in a high demand area ( think manhattan ) it’s not happening.
Has GSMLS 2377477 closed yet? What was the selling price?
Sync,
Still under contract, Ant CD is 04/15/2007
jb
And sometimes, you just have to let the disease run its course. Or, to use another analogy: forest fires are destructive in the short-term, but are essential to the long-term health of an ecosystem.
Moral hazard always has a way of backfiring. By rewarding risky behavior with bailouts, we only prolong the inevitable collapse, perhaps even make it worse.
So lever up, stretch your finances thin, if something goes wrong don’t worry, you are in line for a handout.
jb
JB, thanks!
“By rewarding risky behavior with bailouts”
well said.
SAS
Politely:
Maybe we should our start with people who bought dot.com stocks in 2000 or Japanese real-estate. Heck let’s start with the tulip bubble and start a huge bail out package.
Hi guys,
Can anybody help me with the status of three NJMLS’s:
2710439
2634922
2709880
thanks a lot!
metro –
The heat I knew about (dry heat doesn’t bother me, just humidity) but not monsoon season, will check it out.
I had hear about the crime issues of Tuscon and Albuquerque. The places that appeal most are Santa Fe/Taos and of course Sedona (I’m a bit of a hippy chick). These areas are expensive though and in the case of Sedona, work is an issue. Am starting a business that, if all is well, will give me an income that is geographically independant, which would solve that problem.
Not a huge fan of Phoenix, but as I said, there are literally TONS of investment properties standing empty, rents are very low, the job market is excellent, so it might be a low risk way of trying it out. I have a feeling that Utah might freak me out and Colorado would be too cold.
Metro – so where are you and your wife looking?
politely,
The correction will be painful, but it is completely necessary. I like Clotpoll’s disease analogy, but let me offer my own to the mix.
This is like someone getting addicted to drugs, we feel back about seeing that person go through the pain and suffering of withdrawal, so society’s solution is simply to keep them high at the public’s expense. In this case, cheap credit is the drug of choice.
Ohio Plans Bonds to Bail Out Homeowners Strapped by Mortgages
This honestly scares the s_ _t out of me. If individual states start bailing out people who borrowed more than they could afford to pay back, NJ can’t be far behind. There is no way we are going to be upstaged by Ohio on a social issue.
In a post I made last week about my current plans to purchase a house with my brother in the No. Brunswick area, I was told to forget about a Townhouse and focus on a house, but without an explanation as to why that is. Is it b/c houses tend to hold their value better than a condo or are easier to sell? We are looking to spend no more than $350K. Any advice would be greatly appreciated, thanks.
Yo, don’t bogart the pipe dude!
–> http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1075966262
#59
LOL – Maybe the detatched garage not pictured is made of solid gold or they are sitting on top of an oil field.
#59
Shhh… don’t tell anyone, the oil field was discovered last week.
I mean #60
1929: Average worker buys stocks with no assets.
2007: Average worker buys house with no assets.
gar: I counted seven clocks in the kitchen…..bogart is righto
John H #58,
You should ask the person who said that. Townhomes are either keeping their value or losing rapidly depending on the neighborhood. North Brunswick is nice but the areas closer to the Jersey Ave train station are not. My advice is, buy what you can afford in a good neighborhood.
chi [34],
Well 20,000 were up standing for the last 3 minutes last night, G-town,Vandy and Carolina blue was in a frenzy when they stormed back. By the way, they could have sold out Giants Stadium if they had a dome.
Patrick Ewing Sr.was high fiving everbody in the place when Saxa hit the last shot with 2 seconds to go. I never saw him so excited his whole Knick career. I said hello to your buddy Eli and one who is dear to all of us, Sen Codey. Come to think of it, about the only one that I did not see was Corzine. I heard he was playing his own B-ball game in Boken, slam dunking Carla or vice versa. By the way, Codey is total class. Too bad he let the money machine roll over him.
Clot,
I didn’t get a chance to respond yesterday when you talked about Freddie [fed ex], the Sparks clan and Tudor Jones. When I was with Willard at the Peabody I met JPJ’s uncle, William Dunavant. You talk about two heavyweights, Willard and Dunavant, the biggest cattle rancher in the US and “the” cotton industry.
The Peabody had this hostess, the most beautiful woman I had ever seen, I said to her that fed ex couldn’t deliver a better package than her[I was not married at the time] Willard pulled me over and said, son you are not in NY. The hostess with her beautiful southern drawl, said later that southern guys don’t compliment her like that.
Just my luck, Willard wants to leave and bring me to one of his ranches. Now he is blind in one eye and his wife does not want him to drive. Here is a zillionaire driving an old pick up. I was more terrified riding with him on his ranch than being in a cab in NY. He almost hit a few cattle. He tells me, let’s go see Stan. We get out of the truck and walk over to to his herd. Here is this huge bull, Stan. I ask why Stan? Willard says he is named after one of his great friends, the best baseball player of all time [his sentiment not mine], Stan Musial. I say I think Joe D[not that old, just going by stats] was better, Willard gets upset and says apoligize to Stan. I’m thinking what the f*ck, I want to hang with the hostess in the Peabody, and I’m in the middle of bum f*ck USA apologizing to a bull. It was a real life Urban Cowboy.
Willard was the most incredible human being I have ever met. The most down to earth, gracious person that I have ever come across. Here I was a peon from NNJ and he treated me like Peyton Manning.
He would trade the grains/meats and be up or down millions in a day. It never mattered. His demeanor never changed. He headed the #1 private forecast[meats and grains] firm in the world. That Memphis office was filled with PHD’s in ag economics and weathermen. He taught me to be suspect of govt reports. Their crop reports moved the markets just as much as the USDA. When he went to Wa to visit the Sec of Ag, they would roll out the red carpet. He would blast the Sec if the USDA reports were not close to his. By the way, Hillary’s cattle trading was done out of that office. Her account was held by the same broker who handled Don Tyson’s account. HMMMMM.
He passed away a couple of years ago. I was told that only Elvis’s death was a bigger story in Memphis.
“1929: Average worker buys stocks with no assets.
2007: Average worker buys house with no assets”
yup.
SAS
went to a mall today in Short Hills. Talk about an awful experience.
People are spending ALOT of money on China & Pakistan good.
who says retails sales are down?
But, I do see alot of youth with credit cards these days. I don’t think the youth of today care about debt. Its just accepted in their world.
Yikes.
SAS
that should be
“People are spending ALOT of money on China & Pakistan GOODS”
i.e cloths & shoes.
SAS
Lisoosh,
My sister lives in Tucson, so PHX has appeal. My Job Actually pays more out there because apparently planning has a higher priority there. I have travelled pretty extensively in the region, especially in the summer. if you have questions email me at metroplexual @ gmail com. I know the west pretty well and as I have said my brother in law is an expert in the boomburbs among other places. It is not just me wanting to go west but he an my sister want to be there. While it is not NJ, and you cannot get good pizza (where but here can you(i could tell you)) the scenery and the quality of life make up for it. Just be prepared for the opposite of our winter.
SAS,
USATODAY did a series about Gen Y and attitudes toward debt. Google it. It is scary. No offense Jim, you seem to be immune.
Oh,
I forgot Lisoosh,
If you like hippy type towns check out Bisbee (old mining town), Jerome (Ghost mining town although not so much any more) and Prescott (pronounced press-kit). Although Silver City NM has appeal it is a little less cosmopolitan and indeed closed off to the rest of the world. People I have met there regard ABQ as the big ugly city.
Our governor sleeps with union officials, literally. No wonder our taxes are going up.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/24/nyregion/24carla.html?em&ex=1174881600&en=3f8c2490ee899c3f&ei=5087
SAS: drove by the Route 17 and 4 mall today at work. All parkinglots full at the one at 4 and 17. And the traffic was nice and slow.
Metro: Generation Debt they call us. Dent from college to debt from housing to debt because starting wages have not risen.
And of course debt from trying to live like people in their 40-50’s who have maxed their payscales and have been saving money for 15-20 years.
Marito,
Can anybody help me with the status of three NJMLS’s:
2710439
ACT $320,000 11/2/2003
EXP $320,000 4/30/2004
ACT $359,900 6/11/2005
W-U $359,900 9/12/2005
ACT $319,900 3/17/2007
W-T $319,900 3/23/2007
2634922
ACT $400,000 9/6/2006
PCH $379,000 11/8/2006
ACT* $379,000 1/9/2007
U/C $379,000 1/18/2007
BOM $379,000 2/2/2007
ACT* $379,000 2/9/2007
U/C $379,000 2/22/2007
BOM $379,000 3/7/2007
ACT* $379,000 3/14/2007
U/C $379,000 3/23/2007
EST Close 4/15
2709880
ACT $223,750 6/1/2001
ACT* $223,750 6/12/2001
U/C $223,750 6/19/2001
SLD $223,750 9/20/2001
ACT $439,900 7/31/2006 (added bath, updated kit & bath, new windows, paver patio)
PCH $424,900 9/12/2006
W-C $424,900 11/2/2006
EXP $424,900 2/1/2007
ACT $389,900 3/13/2007
ACT* $389,900 3/19/2007
U/C $389,900 3/23/2007
Est close 6/15
Also,
alot of Gen Y youth still live at home with parents. One of the major ways they maintain that hollywood lifestyle.
ESPECIALLY true in NJ and Long Island.
SAS
OT:
Anyone have any thoughts of PRNEX or similar as a hedge against the dollar?
Which would you prefer minerals or commodities? Plan to stay in them atleast 1yr.
Yes, I know I will lose my shirt if I follow your advice.
javascript:cnnVideo(‘play’,’/video/business/2007/03/23/kathleen.madigan.subprime.cnn’,’2009/03/22′);
I moved to NM from NJ in 04. ABQ does have high crime but it tends to be in certain areas.
You can drive 15-20miles from Holmdel and be in a high crime area.
If you want you can drive 20 minutes out of the city and live amongst the ponderosa pines and get pretty decent snowfall in the winter.
NJ has it’s good points but it is not the place i remember with the little farms… to me it is a suburban wasteland now.
Rut roh….I’m feeling the little cheerleader bubbling up inside of me. [Didn’t even have a beer yet.]
http://www.tiborvari.com/1303b.htm
http://www.ronsaari.com/stockImages/newJersey/PrincetonBlairHallInSnowM.php
http://www.nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/states/newjersey/work/art15458.html
I mean, I know you can blow me out of the water with your NM shots…
Hey Rich in NNJ, thanks!
BTW, I guess W-U and W-T are essentially the same thing? What about PCH? And the asterisks after ACT?
Thanks again.
WU: withdrawn unconditionally
WT: withdrawn temporarily
PCH: price change
ACT*: active but uncer attorney review
FYI…
School spending by municipality in NJ for 2007. See what gets spent on students in your town…
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/22/nyregion/20070322_NJSCHOOLS_GRAPHIC.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Quoteth SAS: “alot of Gen Y youth still live at home with parents. One of the major ways they maintain that hollywood lifestyle.
ESPECIALLY true in NJ and Long Island.”
Well of course if I was living at home instead of living here and working full time I would have at least 50G’s in the bank instead of a whopping $0 oh wait I have school loans – something.
( It’s temporary, and it’s minor, and it’s fixable )
I like that article says would rather pitch a tent on my friends land upstate than move back home. I have a lot of thrifty friends that would like to move out but:
1. Dont make enough money to buy or rent, there are alot of people especially on LI who got lowballed right out of school, and even while hitting the bricks and networking have not gotten another offer yet.
2. Landlords flat out say “we dont rent to single people” they want married couples ideally. And most definatley not a group of single guys. NYT did a piece on the hoops Landlords were making NYC people go through to get a place. Credit checks, huge security deposits, co signs, and big money due every month.
3. Used to be there was housing for all income strata examples Garfield NJ or Mastic NY for example where even if you were making ok wages or the money the guys I used to work with at the Ambulance company you could get a small house and be set.
Many of the long term employees at where I worked in NY making like 8-9 an hour had their small 2-3 bedroom cape paid 60-80K ( in 96 not 76 ) with 1-3K in taxes. About 1K a month ( THE WHOLE DEAL ) about thats 40% with two people working making 8-9 an hour. ( and EVERYONE did a little OT )
Now those houses are 250-300 on LI and 300-400 in Garfield.
CONCLUSION: I think in some cases the spending is due to “why bother saving I am never getting out of here until I get married, and then I expect mad wedding proceds and Mom and Dad to take a 100-200K Heloc on their house for my down payment.
As I posted a while ago the concept of even saving up 20 of the average house in my area is daunting. Yet I know someone my age moving into a new building on the JC/Hoboken border for 600K.
Oh and some of it is Girls that want it all at 20 from their man, who should already be set up and have lots of spending cash. Or think they need to have a thousand dollar purse and 300 dollar shoes.
And guys trying to live up to some stupid perception that they “Need” the Benz/Lexus, the other stuff, ect. You guys have heard me complaining about that before.
I am 27 and I am more confused about how a man should act in this culture. But I see some of my 18-20 year old classmates struggling with it as well. Of course that also comes from looking at who their role models are both in the media and AT HOME.
We said the loose credit put my generation in houses a couple years before they were ready. And I totally agree. There are A LOT of people that got downpayments on the starter condo or house for graduation/wedding/whining. “Throwing away money ect”, or child tennant/parent landlords. I only rented for a year before buying my first place ( with all my own money and 20% down ) It was a good move for me but if the fundamentals did not apply then I would have rented some more.
But I can and as much as I am working on do have to express fustration that even though it is the right thing to do being debt adverse and saving and working hard it is annoying when it seems EVERYBODY my age and younger has this extremely high standard of living and is having signifigantly more fun and stuff than you are.
And I do not begrudge some of you who have busted ass over the years. It is obvious some of you have serious cash in reserves and did very well. You have a right to that quality of life that YOU EARNED.
But there are quite a few people I know giving me attitude because they have all the stuff and I will be saving for the right now uncertain future.
BC (66)-
Sheesh, it’s down-home week here. Funny stuff about Sparks…amazing what a Cardinals’ town Memphis is. I can’t picture you apologizing to a bull, though.
Nice line of sh*t with the hostess. Memphis girls suck up the NY treatment…most of the native guys are mama’s boys, just like Elvis. They’re more interested in fried pickles, UT football and Budweiser than working the program with the ladies.
I did 13 years of school (K-12) with Dunavant’s son. He’s as big a moron as William is a genius. Did you ever get to see his company’s weather center? It’s like NORAD. I’ve also heard that Cargill’s weather center in Memphis is a real piece of work. I always got the feeling that guys like Sparks and Dunavant were so even-keeled because their nerves were completely shot by spending years essentially betting on the weather.
If you ever head down that way again, let me know. I can introduce you to enough places to get in trouble that you may decide not to come back. In my younger days, nights out there didn’t start until around midnight. For a normal-looking city, there’s an awful lot of nefarious diversion available.
I nearly passed a brick while waiting for USC to peter out last night. Weird game. Gotta think G’town will try to slow it to a walk after seeing that game.
Lord (77)-
My vote goes to precious metals…a big dose of gold, and a decent-size position in silver, which is more thinly-traded than gold and should get even more of a “bump” when gold ignites.
All disclaimers apply. I also liked Memphis and Kansas today.
silver = poor man’s gold.
SAS
and I do love silver.
SAS
R Patrick,
I have been married serval times. Never got a dime, and I am still here in this area.
SAS
Why am I still here?
good question. Maybe I should have my head examined.
SAS
INteresting piece.
“Subprime Bust Forces Families From Homes”
http://www.rapidcityjournal.com/articles/2007/03/24/ap/business/d8o2tr9g0.txt#blogcomments
SAS
One more thing Lisoosh,
Taos also has very high property crime. As Aaron has said alot of the crime is localized in the cities in the SW. in ABQ it tend to be in the south near Kirkland AFB in Tucson it is in the SW. For me PHX is the place. It has a decent airport and is pretty cosmopolitan. While the good Italian food is scarce, the Mexican is everywhere and good and believe it or not middle eastern (falafel, baba ganoush) food is quite plentiful in Tempe.
If you like heat in your food try New Mexico out just ask Aaron. They have their own version of Mexican with their (red or green) chile sauce. They will put it on your eggs in the morning if you are not careful.
SCHOOL REPORTS
Whats a good source to find information about public school rankings in NJ? I went to NJ Monthly and saw what they have but am wondering if there is anything else.
Trouble for Beazer Homes? From the Charlotte Observer.
Loans builder arranged will get federal review
Federal housing officials will review whether Beazer Homes USA complied with federal rules in arranging government-insured loans for buyers in its subdivisions.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development, responding to an Observer investigation, will look at lending records from Charlotte and other cities where a large share of Beazer loans ended in foreclosure, officials said Friday.
…
An Observer investigation published last week charted Beazer’s actions in Southern Chase, a Beazer development in Cabarrus County where 77 buyers have lost homes to foreclosure in a neighborhood of 406 homes.
The Observer found Beazer acted in ways that made a high rate of foreclosures inevitable. It arranged larger loans than some buyers could afford. That allowed it to include the cost of financial incentives in the price of homes.
THE NEW YORK TIMES / March 22, 2007
Op-Ed Columnist
Stepping on the Dream
By BOB HERBERT
One of the weirder things at work these days is the fact that we’re making it more difficult for American youngsters to afford college at a time when a college education is a virtual prerequisite for establishing and maintaining a middle-class standard of living.
Young men and women are leaving college with debt loads that would break the back of a mule. Families in many cases are taking out second mortgages, loading up credit cards and raiding 401(k)s to supplement the students’ first wave of debt, the ubiquitous college loan.
At the same time, many thousands of well-qualified young men and women are being shut out of college, denied the benefits and satisfactions of higher education, because they can’t meet the ever-escalating costs.
You want a recipe for making the U.S. less competitive over the next few decades? This is it.
Traditionally, one of the sweetest periods in the lives of many college graduates has been the time immediately after leaving school, when they could relax and take the measure of the newly emerging adult world. It was a time, perhaps, to travel, or to sample intriguing employment opportunities, even if they didn’t pay particularly well. Debt was not usually the overriding concern of the young graduate.
That has changed. Along with their degree, most graduates leave college now with a loan obligation that will hover over them for years, maybe decades. Student loans have decisively overtaken grants as the primary form of financial aid for undergraduates.
Two-thirds of all graduates now leave college with some form of debt. The average amount is close to $20,000. Some owe many times that.
Tamara Draut, in her book, “Strapped: Why America’s 20- and 30-Somethings Can’t Get Ahead,” tells us:
“Back in the 1970s, before college became essential to securing a middle-class lifestyle, our government did a great job of helping students pay for school. Students from modest economic backgrounds received almost free tuition through Pell grants, and middle-class households could still afford to pay for their kids’ college.”
Since then, tuition at public and private universities has soared while government support for higher education, other than student loan programs, has diminished.
This is a wonderful example of extreme stupidity. America will pony up a trillion or two for a president who goes to war on a whim, but can’t find the money to adequately educate its young. History has shown that these kinds of destructive trade-offs are early clues to a society in decline.
At the state level, per-pupil spending for higher education is at a 25-year low, even as government officials and corporate leaders keep pounding out the message that a college degree is the key to a successful future.
Ms. Draut, director of the Economic Opportunity Program at Demos, a public policy group in New York, got to the heart of the matter in her recent testimony before a U.S. Senate committee looking into higher education costs.
“The fundamental problem,” she said, “is rooted in the reality that our government no longer really helps people pay for college — it helps them go into debt for college. The question we need to be asking is not, ‘How much student loan debt is reasonable?’ but, ‘What is the best way to help students afford college?’ ”
The kids who graduate with enormous debt burdens — $40,000, $80,000, $100,000 or more — face a range of uncomfortable and even debilitating consequences, the first of which is the persistent anxiety over how their loans are to be repaid.
I’ve spoken recently with a number of law students who have already decided to go into corporate practice because their first choice — public interest law — would not pay enough to cover their loans. Many students have turned their backs on teaching for the same reason.
At that stage of life, you shouldn’t have to choose between a job you would love and one that you would take simply because it would pay the bills. Talk about stepping on a dream.
There are also plenty of cases of students who have postponed marriage or buying a home or having children because of their college loan obligations.
And then there are those who never see a graduation day. There’s no way of telling what talents have been squandered, or what great benefits to society have been lost, because bright students who were unable to afford the costs have been forced to leave college, or never went to college at all.
In a nation as rich as ours, it should be easy to pay for college. For some reason, we find it easier to pay for wars.
http://select.nytimes.com/2007/03/22/opinion/22herbert.html?n=Top%2fOpinion%2fEditorials%20and%20Op%2dEd%2fOp%2dEd%2fColumnists%2fBob%20Herber
SAS:
I am at that age where you goto A LOT of weddings. Much of which simply remind me to be VERY careful who I eventually end up marrying.
My sister is having a 25K wedding in three months. The amount of money spent on weddings amazes me.
But yeah the couple ( and this is not just them ) got lots of stuff at the engagement party. Google GIMMIE GIMME and weddings :)
But most of my friends have gotten at least 20-30K for a downpayment on a house since they usually get the money back from the wedding. Think about it if you have 150 people and 100 pony up 100 and then the 50 close realtives like 400-500. And mom and dad and the brothers are being nudged in the 1G or more direction that can be one heck of a haul.
(21:57:40) ME: I had a question for you
(21:57:45) MySister: ok
(21:58:23) ME: so you guys registered for the wedding or for the engagement party
(21:59:01) MySister: yes we registered at bed bath and beyond and macys as well as homedepot.com
(21:59:16) ME: A or B
(21:59:31) MySister: huh?
(21:59:42) ME: yes is not an answer
(21:59:54) MySister: to what
(22:00:14) ME: did you register for the wedding or the engagement party?
(22:00:44) MySister: well its kind of both, i dont plan on changing much between now and then
(22:01:42) ME: Ok lets make this really simple
(22:01:54) ME: what are you expecting people to show up with on Saturday
(22:02:18) MySister: technically for the engagement party but like I said its all there and probably not changing for the wedding
(22:02:58) ME: So you two really expect people to show up with like gifts now and lots of money later
(22:03:25) MySister: i wouldn’t put it that way,
(22:03:31) MySister: it which ever you want
(22:03:48) ME: ::head hits monitor::
RP (99)-
Is there a point to your rant? Stuff costs. Lots of people living in Fort Lee have money…or Mom & Dad gave them a big boost to buy lots of stuff…or suffer under a boulder of debt to have that stuff. Many places to live in our area are incredibly expensive, aren’t very nice and offer little-to-no value to most potential homeowners.
The undercurrent of envy/class warfare/regret- and God only knows what else- that has been a part of all your posts is coming to the surface. But the good common sense you’ve exhibited in resisting the siren call of immediate gratification and materialism is undermined by your fixation on the actions of others.
As long as you have one eye on the behaviors of those around you, it will be exceedingly difficult to develop your own plan.
SG~
Based on that article:
There was a book called the Purpose driven life.
For todays recent graduates there is the profit driven life.
From the Star Ledger:
Some cities sign up to oppose visual pollution
MORRISTOWN, N.J. — When Weichert real estate agent Alan Horowitz put up an open house sign along a sidewalk here recently, he didn’t exactly get a buyer.
He got a ticket.
Horowitz unwittingly broke a little-known 1992 law that prohibits real estate signs from being posted on public property. The fine for the transgression is $186.
He’s livid, and so are several other real estate agents who broke the same Morristown law and got the same fine.
“So now we can’t post open house signs,” Horowitz said. “That is outrageous. The most important way to get people to see a home are those signs. Now, they’ll drive around aimlessly.”
In Morristown and a number of other municipalities, the open house and for sale signs that are ubiquitous in other suburbs have taken a hit.
While real estate salespeople say these signs are essential to do their job, municipal officials say they lead to “sign pollution” and shouldn’t be posted on public property. Their argument is people don’t want to see open house signs with balloons and arrows guiding potential buyers through their neighborhoods.
Morristown Mayor Donald Cresitello adamantly opposes letting real estate agents post the signs in his town.
“Why should I let them use public property for free?” Cresitello said. “They make 6 percent on a sale. They should go earn their money and market the homes better, invest some of their money in advertising the property.”
…
Glen Ridge, N.J., Mayor Carl Bergmanson agrees with Morristown’s crackdown. If he crosses paths with an open house sign on public property, that sign is a goner.
“No one has the right to advertise on public property,” he said. “Real estate agents think they are exempt, but they are not.”
(emphasis added)
clot #89 – thanks. I figured it after all your sympathy for the miners. Btw, are they selling any carbon-credits? ;-)
Grim (102)-
NAR now estimates that barely 1% of open houses actually sell as the result of an open house.
However, open houses are an excellent way for agents to use a piece of active inventory as a once-weekly temporary office in order to meet buyers.
The town I’m in has cracked down on real estate signage. Amazingly, houses still sell.
There are a goodly number of agents out there that would find their lives uncomfortably altered if they couldn’t Open House on Sundays.
It is an excellent way to kill time at what can be an uncomfortable point in the week for those who have no outside interests, no social lives and either poor- or non-existent- family relationships.
RentL (103)-
Haw! That’s a good one.
Commercial gold mining could be the single most toxic industrial process ever invented. The most common by-product is arsenic:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=14561078&dopt=Abstract
Clot,
Back to Memphis. The $ down there is mind boggling…..and the most down to earth people you would ever want to meet. Willard was great friends with William DeWitt. He had a seat reserved for Willard, next to Stan the Man. I forgot to add, when I was in the Peabody, I said to Willard, s*it are you the governor of this state. Everybody in the place came over to shake his hand. The waitress pulled me aside and said that’s an injustice to Willard. The Governor does not come close to Willard.
I laugh when the unadjusted here try to one up their friends and drive around with in a Hummer or Porsche [leased] or buy [100% mortgage] a McMansion. In reality they don’t have a pot to piss in. Total frauds.
Back to the Meadowlands. Thinking of taking Carolina. However, not sure. If # 22 for USC didn’t get that bogus 4th foul, who knows how it would have played out.
RentLord,
For what it is worth, I’ll throw in my .02 later.
Pretty soon we’ll all work for the state…
From Today’s Sunbeam:
Budget critics question state’s payroll
While private sector jobs are shrinking, New Jersey has continued to add workers to the state payroll.
Now, with the task of combing through the proposed $33.3 billion budget, members of the Assembly Budget Committee want to know where 15,000 jobs were added between 2000 and 2005 some calling it the root of New Jersey’s fiscal crisis.
“The private sector is shrinking and … people are fleeing the state,” said Assemblyman Kevin O’Toole, R-Bergen. “As a consequence, the state just doesn’t have the resources to offset the increasing costs of government.”
O’Toole presented Department of Labor figures to the state Department of Personnel commissioner during recent testimony before the budget committee.
Commissioner Rolando Torres Jr. touted the decrease in state government workers since Gov. Jon Corzine took office in January 2006, dropping from 70,231 to 69,011.
However, O’Toole brought up the previous hirings, 15,000 of them between 2000 and 2005, at a time when Connecticut and Massachusetts cut close to 5,000 employees each.
Torres said that New Jersey is a “labor-intensive state” and attributed the hirings during Corzine’s tenure to the newly created Department of Children and Family Services and other health care employees.
He was unable to account for the 15,000 employees in previous years.
Some great cartoons over at the Big Picture:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/03/friday_afternoo.html#more
BC (107)-
Yeah, there’s no in-between with Memphis money. You’re either the mack daddy or living in third world poverty. And, the big money there does have a very Buffett-like way of flying under the radar (used cars, modest homes, off-the-rack suits are the Memphis millionaire MO).
Clot,
I know you have already mentioned, you don’t do open houses, I also know you are a big sports fan. I enjoy getting out of my house on a sunday when the “sports Fans” are at it!
My personal sell rate at open houses’ is low, however, there are only so many ways to meet potential clients and it is one of the best ways for me.
Its is in this order.
1. Refferals ( family, friends, past clients)
2. Open House
3. Office walk-ins
4. Office call -ins
99. Mailings- waste of time and money ( for me)
has definitly worked for others
KL
SG – from your NYT article:
“At that stage of life, you shouldn’t have to choose between a job you would love and one that you would take simply because it would pay the bills. Talk about stepping on a dream.”
Isn’t that heartbreaking….NOT
R Patrick: When you are 35, you will be light years ahead of these people. Just as you look at your friends and don’t understnad how they do it, they will look at you and say “man, he has it together”.
BTW if we have a recession and people lose jobs – you tell me who is FUBAR
sas Says:
March 25th, 2007 at 12:13 am
Why am I still here?
good question. Maybe I should have my head examined.
SAS
NJ has best cognac selection in US.
ChiFi (114)-
Ever try any of the Pierre Ferrand cognacs? Sick stuff.
Inventory in NJ is up 2% again last week, and 12% since the beginning of the year. Can someone buy my house? Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee
KL (111)-
There’s a way to make the mail work for you. You have to be very precise in your approach and frequency, though.
If you’re interested, shoot me an e-mail. I can share some stuff w/you.
Isn’t it about time for another get together? Somewhere on the “gold coast” perhaps?
jb
Hi.
Can someone recommend good sites/books for learning finance/stocks/options/bonds/trading etc. I would consider myself an intermediate user/learner. I’ve gone through the literature at Fidelity, read the money 101 chapters as well as read books from Peter Lynch and Jim Cramer. But I do not know some of the advanced stuff (e.g. I know what options are, but dont know how the pros make a call to buy put/call option).
Additionally if there is a good blog on financial matters (same like this one is for nj real estate).
Additionally what are good newspaper/newsletter that might be helpful?
BC/ ChiFi/ Clot/ all others experts – please weigh in.
#118 –
jb, I’m all for it.
SG – good work last time.
Perhaps we should use meetup.com – helps for scheduling on a regular basis.
BC – would love to hear your comments regarding commos and minerals.
Good morning,
If there is any realtor out there, can someone please help me? I am thinking of putting in an offer for this duplex house in Pal Park and just wondering the history of this house (when the current owner bought this house). The mls# is 2709417. Thanks in advance.
Dave
JB,
Forget the gold coast, Shannon Rose.
Att/RentLord,
I am by no means close to being an expert. I’m in between errands, no Home Depot though. I’ll throw out my meaningless .02.
Clot,
As a result of her trading expertise, shouldn’t Hillary join Madeline Albright’s hedge fund and forget 2008.
KL [111],
What about Graham’s Tavern. I thought that would be on the top of the list.
That’s my meaningless .02, later today.
I was at a party yesteday evening, in a community where many houses are on market and not selling as fast as 2005. Even many homeowners were mentioning things like 10% drop compared to boom time.
One person was saying that now a days, some sellers are thinking of different type of incentive. According to him, The Seller agrees to pay 1 year of Mortgage for the Buyer, instead of lowering the price.
Will any such incentive be of real value to buyer, compared to lowered sale price?
Clot and ChiFi
Yes the first one came out a bit of a rant. I apologize for that and will review my posts better next time. I also will stop the BooYa type posts as well.
I am trying to relate what I am see out there since most of you are not “in the thick of it” dealing with the demographic ( Tail gen X and Gen Y ) described first hand.
The AIM conversation with my sister is a clear example of the “Gimmie Gimmie” attitude. And that is VERY common. I felt I need to explain with an example how some young people getting married expect the down payment. ( thats the point )
I just want people to realize we ( Gen Y ) all are not driving leased cars and living at the mall and going out every weekend. Many of us are but then they would not be monitoring the bubble.
What do I see for my generation? And am I anywhere near target?
1. BS is the new HS diploma for most careers.
We gutted the manufacturing and non-service industries in our area so there is a huge gap between breaking even jobs ( including the one I am doing now ) and getting ahead jobs ( health insurance, saving a bit, normal blue collar life )
Which leads to home ownership.
2. Debt from college, housing, and covering gaps in cost of living via credit will be a normal factor of life.
Suze Orman talks about this in her book Young, Broke, and Fabulous. That starting wages in most careers are still lagging versus cost of living. And ok I am starting my job I need to goto “knock off store ” and get 3 business suits or in my case 3-5 pairs of white scrubs. And you need it to get working. So you got to spend the money.
3. If there is a bailout prices will not drop, and I feel that and it is echoed here that inflationary measures will be/are being used already.
Meaning housing will be flat and investments and saving lose power as well as wages stay where they are stuck.
My generation may be the first one to go back to more being life time renters as housing like most wealth in this country continues to consolidate.
SG,
Nope, it’s all smoke and mirrors. The only thing that matters is the price. I don’t care if it’s a 4%, 30 year fixed. It’s price, price and price. A $500,000 mortgage and a $400,000 mortgage amortized over 30 years is light years in difference on the total amount you will pay.
And since living in Northern New Jersey has now become an elitist privilege, be prepared to shell out a minimum fee of $3,500 a month just to have a roof over your head. Sales are up %14 from the previous month and an analyst from Bloomberg (can’t remember name) said the other day that housing is now stablizing and normal appreciation will continue in 6 months.
Northern New Jersey is not Peoria, Ill., it is exempt here.
KL,
There was an fsbo ad, in the local area. Talk about spelling issues, it stated Manner Location. Yikes.
Open Houses;
http://realestate.msn.com/selling/Article.aspx?cp-documentid=510890>1=9226
a fsbo ad.
Here they go, starting to lobby/justify their next move?
The Fed’s most closely watched measure of inflation should slow to about 2 percent from the current 2.25 percent, Mishkin said during a speech in San Francisco.
“While recognizing how embarrassingly wrong such prognostications often turn out to be, I think that we can be reasonably optimistic that core PCE inflation will gradually drift down from its 12-month reading of 2.25 percent,” he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aY9j20.wfUkc&refer=home
R (125)-
Every generation has its challenges. Your particular ones are in no way more than any other generation since the days of Washington & Jefferson.
You’ve already figured out the challenge (which puts you ahead of about 99% of your peers). However, now you’ve got to make it pay you…and indeed, there IS a way to make it pay.
There are investment and housing plays you can make to take advantage of an inflatioary environment. You also have the benefit of being young and unattached, meaning that your risk tolerance should- and appropriately so- be much higher.
All disclaimers.
BC (128)-
Lock and load.
#126 Gary: why are you torturing yourself. The decline has just begun. The analyst from Bloomberg is just wrong.
“James Bednar Says:
March 25th, 2007 at 8:04 am
From the Star Ledger:
Some cities sign up to oppose visual pollution
Glen Ridge, N.J., Mayor Carl Bergmanson agrees with Morristown’s crackdown. If he crosses paths with an open house sign on public property, that sign is a goner.
“No one has the right to advertise on public property,” he said. “Real estate agents think they are exempt, but they are not.”
(emphasis added)”
Funny thing is, as someone pointed out on a radio show the other day – polititians have no problem putting their signs on public property at election time and leaving them up for months. Talk about visual pollution.
#74 R PAtrick Many,many of those 40’s/50’s are in debt up to theri eyeballs as well. trust me I know quite a few.
And if you have are in that age group, you are a prime canidate to be laid off, know many of them as well.
This madness was not confined to just one generation.
Clot and others,
If you remember, i posted a couple days ago about a house that my wife and i were going to possibly buy… we put a couple of bids in… 1st $380K… 2nd $399K… listing agent said that there was “another buyer”… anyway… they called a couple days later and said that if we agree to $405K it’s a done deal… so, we did… and then of course, before the sellers, could sign… the listing agent came back and said that there’s “another buyer” and they just offered $425K… we laughed and walked… and withdrew our offers… the house wasn’t worth that coin… not all agents are bad… but this guy was a joke… now, my wife and i know why this particular house has been on the market for 13 months!
Jim,
What is the address for that lowball in independence?
MLS # 2277922
Metro –
Thanks for all the helpful information, I will certainly check out the other towns you mentioned.
As for Phoenix – I don’t really care about Italian food (ducks) as I did not grow up in Jersey. I did live in LA for several years as a kid and so actually prefer Mexican food and am married to a Middle Easterner so the ME food had better be good!
I get the wish for a cosmopolitan feel. I am torn between city conveniences and small town communities. My favorite places to live are generally around 100 – 200k, were there are amenities, but you are likely to bump into people you know, I haven’t seen a safe area like that in the region.
My dream house is a “green” adobe with a bit of land. There are a lot of interestin environmental builders out there.
The only thing that freaks me out is the bugs. Snakes I can deal with, Tarantulas, scorpions, giant centipedes and Black Widows are a whole other deal.
Sounds like your mind is made up. Do you mind me asking, why are you still here?
Newbie Dave,
It was active 12/1999 for $299,000 while under construction and sold 6/2000 for $300,000.
On the market 3/11/07; taxes $8,880
Rich in NNJ,
Thank you very much. Have a good day~
Dave
R Patrick,
I am recently married and I didn’t get back anywhere near the cost I put in. And people don’t usually bring gifts to the engagement – flowers and cards and other meaningless tokens tend to be it. But that’s just my experience. Ad I’m probably in the same age group as you.
Lisoosh,
I am not completely sold on a move. Though PHX would be the destination for sure. My wife works for Continental Airlines and would have to transfer. I will be vacationing for much of July in AZ and Utah this summer, I figure I can introduce myself around the city then and maybe have my brother in law introduce me to some of his contacts in the RE industry. They apparently like to hire planners because of the knowledge of the regulatory environment. But with the industry cratering right now I just might get another gubmint job out there.
I am seeing what happens in the next year as the resets hit in the ARMs. I still love this region but I can easily live elsewhere. Just not the south, I lived in ATL for 3 years, yech.
A city you might like is Las Cruces, NM. It fits the bill for what you described, it is a college town and it has El Paso nearby. I don’t know if the crime rate is that out of control but it is pretty and has good New Mexican food. If you visit PHX the ME food is found in Tempe mostly. You can also get “New Jersey Style” pizza at Greasy Tony’s, (Orignially from NJ).
I too am looking to buy into green technology for my future house.
BTW, for me it is not the bugs but the critters. Gila monsters, javelinas and coyotes. My sister lives next to the Saguaro monument on the east side of Tucson and at night if you ride bicycles through the area you can hear the coyotes behind you.
att Says:
March 25th, 2007 at 9:39 am
Can someone recommend good sites/books for learning finance/stocks/options/bonds/trading etc. I would consider myself an intermediate user/learner.
att-sbc: I apologize for request granularity, but what are you targeting? You mentioned five areas f/s/o/b/t as if there is some general connection, but you need to be more specific……you want to use options so you can take large bets with a small sum? and study technical analysis so that you can use trends to dictate your behavior?
metro #140,
What was wrong with Atlanta? I have the possibility of a transfer out there, well to a northern suburb of ATL. What are your feelings on the region?
analyst [choose you firm] said the other day that housing is now stablizing and normal appreciation will continue in 6 months.
Most analysts have a vested interest in a strong economy and by extension a stabilizing housing market. Declarations that “the market is now stabilizing” have been going on for over a year now, but the downward trend continues. Yes, there will be some up months & bullish moments along the way, but nothing I have seen shows a reversal in the downward trend.
Here is a nice example of premature bottom calling:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html
Same thing, different bubble.
syncmaster Says:
“What was wrong with Atlanta? I have the possibility of a transfer out there, well to a northern suburb of ATL. What are your feelings on the region?”
Traffic, traffic, traffic. The place is a nightmare, including northern suburbs. Go visit during the week and try to get around between 4-7 pm. I love the south, but Hotlanta a’int for me.
The Economist ran a special report this week on America’s housing market. Its their cover story for the week.
Cracks in the façade
America’s riskiest mortgages are crumbling. How far will the damage spread?
Too big to post here, but here is the link:
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8885853
Sync,
I lived in Vinings, Roswell and Midtown. Traffic and the smog are terrible. When I moved into the place in Vinings it was august. I thought the apartment complex was average then by the end of October I found I had a spectacular view of the skyline which disappeared in May. If you are far enough north you can avoid the traffic but you are talking about a metro area the size of NJ with about half the people. They are the posterchild for sprawl and runaway development. Oh and I found the place to have northern charm and southern efficiency.
RentLord,
I am in the foreign exchange business but have worked on a futures desk for many years.
It is extremely difficult to give you a short synopsis regarding how I am positioned and [of more value] why in the market. Also, I am trading what I see for the next 5 years out. You might have a different time horizon. I hate for anybody to listen to me and lose $. I don’t even know if its fair since I have been in these positions since 2001[short dollar]and 2003[long gold]. Also, I don’t know your risk tolerance/capital. I would love to give you details but then I would be here all day. If you like we can get together some weekend for lunch and I would be happy to discuss in detail.
Simply, I am more bullish gold/bearish US dollar than bearish RE. My positions may not be prudent for someone else. As a matter of fact, if Chi sat down with me he would hit me over the head with a 2×4 since I am not diversified. My idea of diversification is futures to stocks to options. I am in all commodity plays, gold,mining stocks,minerals,grains and short the dollar index, not a pairs trade but against a basket of foreign currencies. I am looking right now at water/electricity plays.
Suggestions;
-know the technicals, be aware of overbought/oversold indicators, moving averages, relative strength,stochastics, etc.. You don’t need to be a technical nerd, just be aware. I like to know what everybody else is looking at. I have been told that John Murphy has decent books regarding technical analysis, I have not read them. Fundamentals will ultimately drive the trade. However, I have that old saying on my monitor, markets can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent. Case in point, nasquack late 90’s and RE. Now when the fundamentals and technicals line up, it’s time to rock and roll.
att,
I received an email from ino.com, regarding free option booklets for members. It’s also free to be a member. This may be a place to start. I did not see the package that they are offering. When my uderlying move, I then like to put on option plays, such as call/put spreads and/or calendar spreads. Like I mentioned to RentLord, maybe a weekend lunch [3 of us],to discuss.
underlying
BC #147 – thanks and I totally understand.
I do like the CANSLIM strategy and have used Breakoutwatch.com for trading in the past. Also tore up William O’Niel’s book on the strategy. I know that sounds like saying “but I stayed at Holiday Inn” ;-)
I just wanted to get a broad take between commodities and minerals with a rough 1 year horizon. But ofcourse there are more appropriate forums for that.
Incidentally, I was looking for a meeting on meetup.com/craigslist to discuss CANSLIM trading and how others are using it.
Right now I am just looking at a small portion 5-10% and only in mutual funds (don’t have the time for stocks).
Sync – I lived in the Atlanta area for 9 yrs. Like others have said – it’s just traffic, traffic and traffic. I commuted 60miles each way for years spending 4hrs each day in traffic. The closest big city to Atlanta is atleast 5 hours away, so you can’t getaway anywhere by car.
Nothing great about Atlanta :(
I meant breakoutwatch for technical analysis and breakouts
Thanks for the feedback, guys. Is the traffic down there actually worse than what we have here in Jersey?
Also, how is the mass transit situation down there? I hear they have MARTA, which I have heard mixed things about. Is commuting to work by train/bus nearly as widespread down there as it is here? Widespread availability of public transportation options is one of the things I actually like about this area.
sync, I have a friend who works for MARTA, lives in duluth, Ga (north atlanta) and does NOT take MARTA to work. I am not sure where you are going to work in atlanta and where you plan to live, but in general public transportation is avoided.
Van-pooling is more common and the HOV lanes are just as packed during rush hours. They have an 800 number and a website to connect van poolers and it works pretty good.
Sync,
Yes they have MARTA but be advised it works great if you stick to the rails (cheap too) but if you are using the bus system in addition a trip could take 2 hours. Also the sentiment is that it is somehow dangerous but I never found that to be the case. No transit is not used like here but we are the exception for mass transit use. Where did you say the transfer would bring you?
Best part of MARTA is you can park in the MARTA lots for free during the day or for a small fee per day if it is a longer stay when using it to go right into the airport. Do yourself a favor take a trip down there. Work in to your trip the “world of coke” and the new aquarium and check out CNN.
As for the traffic NJ is horrendous and we have our share of bad drivers to boot but ATL has wacked out drivers. When I was down there it seemed to be a common thing for drivers to be going the wrong way on the highways. Also what was odd about the place was is very few roads go east-west across the northern areas so you have to go south to go across the northern parts of the city.
Rentlord, your friend is in Gwinnett County and that is not part of MARTA which is funded with a 1% sales tax in Fulton and Dekalb Counties. Although I heard rumblings about it expanding.
but ATL has wacked out drivers
I once saw a pretty lady paint her toe nails while driving (yea, i was driving too)
Reading the newspaper is not considered wacky ;-)
I saw a guy go from the left lane on the connector to the exit at the last possible second. Six lanes across full traffic. It was amazing no one crashed or got hurt.
metro, you are so right about north-south being connected I75, I85 and GA 400.. but East -West there are hardly any good highways (other than depending on 285).
There was some talk about an outer loop – but there was a huge debate about that ( this is 3 yr old news).
That idea for an outer loop is over 30 years old. I was in GDOT looking at the original plans back in 1999. The plans were from the early 70’s. The interesting thing about Atlanta is many of the people are transplants. They are scared to venture off the interstates. My cousin lived down there and her job was 6 miles from her house but it took 50 minutes to get to it in Paces Ferry.
Chifi (#141)
Thanks for replying.
I’m specifically targetting good stock picking startegies (would like to know how successful pros do).
Also I’m looking for how to recognize when to go short on one type of investements (say stocks) and be long on other types (say bonds).
I’m also interested in other related stuff too, but I think I can study them once I’ve learned enough about the above 2 first.
If there is good book/ sites that can teach the above – I’m all ears for recommendations.
(On a side not – I spend about 150 mins each day on commute. I think book/site about the above finance areas would be a very good use of that time. Right now most of that time is spend reading njrereport.com, but since I’ve postponed my home buying decision for at least 2-3 years, I think that time would be better spent gather knowledge of other things that I’m interested in).
BC Bob (#147)
Thanks for your advice. I will try and see the ino site as well as try to find info on what rentlord suggested.
I’m also weary of dollar – esp. with the ever increasing budget deficits. I think further devaluation of $ is a forgone conclusion (dont know when exactly it might happen). How do I hedge my bets against the depreciating dollar (I have some money invested in foreign mutual funds, but aren’t those markets closely linked to US markets? Also those funds are traded in USD – so I dont think they are protected against the $ decline. (please correct me if I’m wrong)).
Also how do you play commodities/minerals? Via the mutual funds which target them specifically or via individual stocks? Any recommendations??
BC Bob.
One more question (I think you’ve been asked this question many times by your friends).
What did you see in RE that made you get out of it in late 2005. I mean you almost timed your RE sale perfectly to the peak of the market. The market had been insane in prior 4-5 years – so why 2005, why not 2004 or 2003 or waited for 2006?? What specifically did you see in 4th quarter of 2005 that you knew that this is it – the time to sell?
We moved to Forsyth County (@45 miles north of Atlanta) from NNJ three years ago. All the posts here have accurately described the traffic – pretty bad – worse than NNJ. MARTA is ok – now reaches Forsyth County by rail and bus. One way trip is 2.25 (you can get a transfer token.) Only thing we don’t like here is the traffic. This area is very diverse and not unsimiliar to NNJ in many ways. People do tend to be “nicer” (in general.) Housing is a lot less expensive than NNJ, and taxes as well. Auto insurance is about half the cost. But the traffic is bad.
Help! Ambush visit by sister-in-law! Carolina game coming up soon!
What tools do I need to create a shallow grave?
BC Bob #147, first post here after lurking for months. I myself am positioned 100% in physical gold, silver and gold & silver equities. Took most positions end of 2001 and later, and have been accumulating whenever possible and rely heavily on TA when adding to positions. I am convinced this PM bull is the real deal and have positioned myself accordingly. I am not diversified either but that’s ok. Hedge funds aren’t so why should I be? I try to minimize the margin though. I work in NYC, one of the products my company offers is a charting package with all the TA bells & whistles and my eyes are glued to it Mon-Friday. I learned a lot of the nuts & bolts analysis from a fixed income & fx director at a major firm that I used to support back in the ’90s. Invaluable stuff to know.
Good luck with your investments & trading. And as far as Murphy’s books the last one I had read was Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets. I believe the markets have changed a great deal since this book was first published as hedge funds and the PPT were not as much of a factor back then as they are now.
Former NNJ Where in forsyth does MARTA go. the northern terminus of MARTA when I was there was just shy of Roswell.
Jim,
I found another site for the sidebar
http://www.c-n.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=special04
You can look up past sales of properties by town among other things.
#164
There is a Park and Ride at the Cumming Fair Grounds (on Castlebury Road.)
att Says:
March 25th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
Chifi (#141)
Obviously there are several million choices :). To drill down more for an appropriate solution that is going to be of optimal use for you.
4 questions:
1. How comfortable are you with mathematics?
2. How much statistics do you know?
3. How much accounting do you know?
4. How familar are you with the concept of discounted cash flows?
They are great solutions even if the answers to the above questions are: I hate it; none; none; not at all.
There are….
I spent 5 years living in Atlanta and only came back for a promotion, but truthfully wish I stayed. Yes, the traffic is awful, but it’s one of the best “little big cities” in the US. Great diversity, great food, a housing stock from old antebellum mansions to modern all glass hi-rises, arts, sports, and probably the friendliest people you’ll meet. Most everyone is a transplant so they’re much more inclined to be social. It’s rare to meet true southerners. If you’re single, it could be the best city to meet women in in the US. I kept my home there and I’ll go back after I bleed this job out. Good lcuk!!!
I don’t mean to disparage the city as a whole. It was just not my cup of tea. Buckhead for singles is supposed to be a blast along with L5P (little 5 points) and ponce as well as Virginia Highlands, but alas I was already married.
The diversity is ok if ghettoized. I discovered Korean food down there and NYC is only just getting to know it. (it is good) While the recent immigrants are largely Mexican, I had a tough time finding a good Mexican meal.
Great responses, thanks everyone. The potential transfer is to Roswell. Some of my colleagues who work there now live in Alpharetta. This is not a decision I have to make right now. There’s a window of opp’ty right now but if I demur (I likely will, I don’t like being rushed into things like this) I know I will be able to look into it again later. Maybe a visit isn’t such a bad idea.
MJM #134
I didn’t see any response to your post and I wanted to paste it here.
The absolute gall of the sellers and their agent to produce that last offer from “another buyer”!!! After all that negotiating, a phantom buyer appears with an offer $20K above your highest.
I believe you did the right thing in walking. Please keep us posted if they come back to you looking to get you to contract at your last bid. At some point, you should name the agent involved.
Clot and others,
If you remember, i posted a couple days ago about a house that my wife and i were going to possibly buy… we put a couple of bids in… 1st $380K… 2nd $399K… listing agent said that there was “another buyer”… anyway… they called a couple days later and said that if we agree to $405K it’s a done deal… so, we did… and then of course, before the sellers, could sign… the listing agent came back and said that there’s “another buyer” and they just offered $425K… we laughed and walked… and withdrew our offers… the house wasn’t worth that coin… not all agents are bad… but this guy was a joke… now, my wife and i know why this particular house has been on the market for 13 months!
CF(#166) – Here are the answers to the questions in your post:
1. How comfortable are you with mathematics?
Pretty comfortable
2. How much statistics do you know?
Studied as part of maths some years ago. Know some simple terms, but nothing too deep.
3. How much accounting do you know?
Very little – none
4. How familar are you with the concept of discounted cash flows?
none.
Please let me know what would be good options for me.
Thanks.
Hey Sync.
Check the place out. You may find you like it. Winters can go from 60 F highs to 20 F highs but one winter I had there was just 60’s all winter long. Also, keep in mind that GA gas tax is also lower than NJ which is saying alot. The town is mostly chain stores of every variety. If you have to work in Roswell by all means move to Roswell. Sandy Springs or North Springs would be a another option. Alpharetta might put you into the crush. Locate where you can reverse commute (against the flow)
February EXISTING HOME SALES down bigtime vs. year/year !!!
READ
The NAR f*cks over the gullible MSM and sheeple, leads them to believe used home sales were up last month. That was NOT the case.
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/03/nar-fcks-over-gullible-msm-and-sheeple.html
Dubious NAR report shows home sales continue to crater, off 3.7% vs. last year, while unsold inventory explodes by another 763,000 units and median sales price (without incentives) is down 7.6% from peak
February used home sales (per the dubious NAR numbers) were supposedly 387,000 units, vs. 402,000 units February 2006, down 3.7%. Inventory is now at 3,748,000, vs. 2,985,000 in February 2006, up 763,000 unwanted homes, or 25.6%. And the median sales price (without cash back or incentives) in February of $212,800 is down $17,400 from the July 2006 peak.
Syncmaster:
We do love it here (despite the traffic.) Roswell and Alpharetta are near where we live and are both great towns. You might want to “visit” some on-line sites too:
http://www.ci.roswell.ga.us
http://www.alpharetta.ga.us
I still miss NJ somewhat (born and raised there) but don’t regret the move. Our quality of life is definitely better here.
FormerNNJ,
Thanks for the links. I just clicked on the Alpharetta link. The link Questions about Annexation is really interesting! They are actually poaching neighboring areas encouraging them to become part of Alpharetta?
An Alpharetta address is “fashionable” here. Whitney Houston was a homeowner there at Country Club of the South.
oooh, a “top town” I can actually afford. Very nice.
“I’m also weary of dollar – esp. with the ever increasing budget deficits. ”
Actually, the Federal deficit has been decreasing since 2004. That’s the one you were referring to, right?
“Atlanta”
Thats a great town.
Great women there too.
SAS
“Atlanta”
Thats a great town.
Great women there too.
SAS
“Atlanta”
Thats a great town.
Great women there too.
SAS
sorry about the 3 posts…
don’t know how that happened.
SAS
SAS –
Thought you were repeating for emphasis!
“I work in NYC, one of the products my company offers is a charting package with all the TA bells & whistles and my eyes are glued to it Mon-Friday.”
Accumulator,
What’s the name of the product?
RentLord,
If I had a 1 year time horizon, I don’t think I would be in metals/minerals. Just my opinion. What happens if we go thru a 20% pullback in this time frame??
att,
I will go back and look for an old post regarding the sale. I just knew I wanted out. I was not trying to time it, you can’t time bottom or tops in RE. I’ll dig back to see if I can find my post pertaining to this.
I don’t know enough about your mutual funds to give you an appropriate answer. You can utilize mutual funds, individual stocks or etf’s for commodities. I would not touch futures unless you were on top of these markets constantly and know the futures markets inside and out. If a 10-15% decline will cause you to lose sleep, stay away from these markets;
GLD-gold etf
SLV-silver etf
DBA-grains etf
DBC-gold, aluminum, crude, heating oil, corn& wheat.
There are many more, do a search.
There are also currency etf’s.
Educate yourself about all these etf’s. Remember, very volatile.
Also, check mutual funds.
Clot,
You must be livid. I know how you feel.
yes atlant for some reason has tall bondes but` so do billings MT and Minneapolis. (besides they look like my sister)
An “analyst” who states anything other than a ‘serious correction’ will continue to unfold for the next several years is either sniffing glue, or has a vested interest in promoting a fantasy.
We hit a 100-year-peak in 2005, the party is over:
http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Returning to “normal” means a 20-30% correction.
Deficit schmeficit. The debt is what really counts.
I went to treasurydirect.gov and pulled up “The Daily History of the Debt” from 01/01/2000 through 03/23/2007.
Here is a .jpg of the resultant excel graph. I’m not showing the date values on the x-axis because there are too many of them. And even if I did show them, it would make no difference – as you can see, the graph goes in only one direction.
http://img133.imageshack.us/img133/1592/debt0103200003222007zr3.jpg
JB, just got another HTTP 500. Time was 1144PM EDT.
BC (188)-
At least I had my sister-in-law around to abuse (yes, I decided to spare her life). You don’t expect to lose when you’re up 10 with 6:00 to go. G’town looked dead and buried, but we just didn’t deliver the kill shot.
Props to the Hoyas. Love to see Oden/Hibbert in the final.
Gotta like us next year. Everybody returns & Dook loses McRoberts to the NBA (er, NBDA).
Does anyone know where I can get a good graph/data analysis of averageincome compared to average home price?
I am currently renting an apartment and have been watching the housing market increase wildly for a while now. Homes are basically unaffordable, and that is why they have to correct.
BC Bob, What’s the name of the product?
Reuters Station
Hi, We’re looking to buy a townhome or a SFH in the Fall… Do you think Prices would have corrected by then?