This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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Interesting story from down in Myrtle Beach:
Future inmate found working at loan office
A woman who recently pleaded guilty to bank fraud has been working for a Myrtle Beach mortgage broker, illustrating the difficulty experts say they have in regulating the state’s home loan industry.
Oragail “Gail” Crowder pleaded guilty in federal court in July to bank fraud related to an automobile dealership she and her husband, Ronald, operated in Florence.
The Crowders are free on bond and Gail Crowder has been working for Approved Mortgage Lending at 1601 Oak St., Myrtle Beach.
Crowder’s business card states that she is a mortgage originator, although she does not have a state license to do that job.
Crowder said on Tuesday that the business card “must be a mistake” and that she is an administrative assistant at the mortgage brokerage.
From Reuters:
Housing worries weigh on Realogy bond sale
Realogy Corp., a real estate company whose brands include Century 21 and Coldwell Banker, is feeling the pinch from the slowing housing market.
The Parsippany, New Jersey-based company, expected to price $3.15 billion of high-yield bonds and a $1.95 billion term loan on Thursday, may offer higher yields than initially sought to attract investors. The company also canceled a floating-rate portion of the sale, according to investors and sources familiar with the deal.
“There’s definitely been some push back on the deal,” said Justin Monteith, a high-yield analyst at KDP Investment Advisors. “There’s a little bit of nervousness in the market and it’s inextricably linked to the housing market. That’s the primary fear in high yield right now.”
From the AP:
Consumer Confidence at 6-Month Low
Consumer confidence sank to a six-month low as higher gasoline prices, a housing slump and stock market turbulence made people fret more about the economy.
The RBC Cash index showed confidence dropping to 85.4 in April. That was down from 92.3 in March. The new reading was the lowest since 83.1 in October. The index is based on the results of the international polling firm Ipsos.
…
“Consumers appear to be anxious about the economic climate in the face of the rise in gasoline prices as well as the volatility of the stock market and the ongoing woes of the housing market and the subprime , or risky , mortgage market,” said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America’s Investment Strategies Group.
Peoples’ feelings about current economic conditions slid to 99 in April, from 107.5 in March.
Consumers also expressed even more angst about how the economy and their own financial fortunes will unfold over the next six months. This expectations measure fell to 41.7, also a six-month low. In March, this gauge stood at 49.3.
From Yahoo Finance:
Knowing When It’s Time to Relocate
You were lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time. Is it time to bail out?
With prices declining or flat-lining in many markets nationwide, that’s the question for homeowners who purchased before the real estate boom.
They live in cities like Riverside, Bakersfield, and Fresno, Calif., where the average home price has rocketed more than 125 percent in the last five years. Or in Ocean City, N.J., Baltimore, Md., or Honolulu, Hawaii, where average home prices doubled in that period. (See my blog for a list of the top 25 appreciating markets.)
…
Last year, 54 percent of Long Island residents reported in a study they were somewhat or very likely to move in the next five years to an area with lower housing costs and property taxes — up from 45 percent of residents just two years earlier.
“People on Long Island are finding it increasingly more difficult to meet monthly housing expenses,” says Anne Golob, director of the Long Island Index Project, a research group that conducted the study. “Property taxes have grown exorbitantly in the last few years.” Other burgeoning costs — including health care and college education — may inspire a search for lower housing costs.
…
A 2006 survey commissioned by Coldwell Banker found affordability was the third most cited reason that leads people to relocate. The majority, 48 percent, moved for a job; 45 percent wanted a better community or lifestyle; and 28 percent sought a more affordable home or location.
“People are living in very uncertain times,” says social psychologist Lois Vitt, Ph.D., author of “10 Secrets to Successful Home Buying and Selling: Using Your Housing Psychology to Make Smarter Decisions.” “They don’t know what’s going to happen with national security, their jobs, health care costs, Social Security and on and on. It’s a good idea to take an appreciated house and pay off debts and simplify your life a little bit. In some cases, you feel a lot more free.”
Payrolls come in strong. From MarketWatch:
U.S. March payrolls up 180,000, jobless rate falls to 4.4%
Job growth showed surprising strength in March, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 180,000 in March higher than the 168,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4% in March from 4.5% in the previous month. This matches the lowest rate in six years set in October. The last time the unemployment rate was lower was in May 2001. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.5%. The details of the report were Average hourly earnings increased 6 cents, or 0.3% to $17.22. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain. Earnings are up 4.0% in the past year. The average workweek was 33.9 hours. Economists were expecting the workweek inch higher to 33.8 hours from the initial estimate of 33.7 in February. The factory workweek and factory overtime rose in March. Jobs in the factory secctor fell 16,000. Construction added 56,000 jobs in the month.
February was revised upwards as well, from 97,000 to 113,000.
jb
Still think that the fed is cutting to support housing??
Builders added 56,000 jobs after shedding 61,000 the prior month. The snap back is probably due to the return of more seasonable temperatures after cold weather played a role in the February drop, the Labor Department said.
Service industries, which include banking, insurance, restaurants and retailers, gained 137,000 workers last month after a 180,000 gain in February, the report showed. The increase was led by a 36,000 gain in retail employment that was the biggest since July 2005.
Manufacturing
Manufacturers’ payrolls fell 16,000 last month after dropping 11,000 a month earlier. Economists expected manufacturers to eliminate 12,000 positions. The manufacturing workweek rose to 41.1 hours and overtime increased to 4.3 hours from 4.2 hours.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alh1B3aI8Bnc&refer=home
Cut? With inflation running as hot as it has, and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, it might just be time for another rate hike.
jb
JB,
That’s my point, the data indicates we should raise, now.
there will be no rate hike. more likely you’ll see a cut around august.
>
> While looking at a house, my brother asked the real estate agent which
> direction was north because, he explained, he didn’t want the sun waking him
> up every morning.
>
> She asked, “Does the sun rise in the north?”
>
> When my brother explained that the sun rises in the east, and has for
> sometime, she shook her head and said,
>
> “Oh, I don’t keep up with that stuff.”
Don’t forget to check on the # of phantom jobs included by the BLS. +128K
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
Interesting piece on the Grant Thornton resignations from Reuters:
Lifting the Lid: Auditor’s subprime exits show risks
there will be no rate hike. more likely you’ll see a cut around august.
Do you think our economy is that weak? GDP would need to take a serious tumble (ala Roubini) for cuts to be on the table that soon.
Looks like hikes from the BOE and ECB are on the horizon, potentially the BOJ. We seem to be in a rising rate environment across the entire globe. Personally, I think the U.S. would have to take a pretty rough tumble to start cutting rates against this trend.
Or did we wake up in bizzaro-world this morning, where grim is arguing economic strength and Richard arguing recession?
jb
Opinion piece from the Christian Science Monitor:
Home sweet home, until it isn’t
Poof! That’s the American dream of homeownership vanishing for those unable to pay their mortgages – leading one major mortgage lender to declare bankruptcy this week. Perhaps Americans need to rethink the merits of this dream.
The US rate of homeownership is at a historic high – 69 percent. But there’s no rule that says “countries prosper when ‘x’ percent of people own homes.” Some developed nations have high homeowner rates (Singapore, 91 percent; Spain, 83 percent; Ireland, 77 percent). Others have lower ones (Switzerland, 35 percent; Germany, 43 percent; Denmark, 53 percent).
…
Property ownership is good for society. People who own their homes tend to vote. They (usually) keep up their properties and keep down crime. They feel invested in their communities. And ownership fosters individual responsibility.
But it’s not for everyone. Probably the biggest misconception is that it’s generally a great investment. Economic studies repeatedly show that the expense of a home – the financing, insurance, taxes, upkeep, renovations, etc. – adds up to more than most people make when they sell their home.
Most homeowners move within seven years. A renter who invests a down payment in the stock market could do much better than the owner within that same time frame. Owning is “a lot riskier than the S&P [500],” says Austan Goolsbee, an economics professor at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. That point is made clear by the drop in real estate prices.
…
Not that people should stop dreaming. But buying a home is a major undertaking. Both eyes should be wide open.
Anyone have any insight on the Upper Saddle River real estate market? Not the $2M+ homes, but the ones in the $850K-$1M price range?
If August data is similar to today, no way. If you get behind the 8 ball on the inflation curve, it’s becomes extremely difficult to contain. However, we are 4 months away. A ton of data forthcoming.
“Poof!”
[15],
They stole that from BOOOOYAAAA.
By the way, where has he been. Also, where is WAAAAAAAAHHHHHH.
From Bloomberg:
Treasury Yields Rise to Eight-Week High as Job Growth Increases
Treasuries fell, pushing yields on benchmark 10-year notes to the highest in eight weeks, after a government report showed the economy created more jobs last month than economists forecast.
The increase in employment may ease concern that the housing slump is spilling over into other parts of the economy and caused traders to pare back bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
“This will eliminate talk of any immenent cut coming from the Fed,” said Kevin Flanagan, a Purchase, New York-based fixed- income strategist for Morgan Stanley’s individual-investor clients.
From yesterday’s thread:
Grim, yeah, Alterna’s NJ office is Mt. Olive, I believe. Looks like they have shut down for real.
still_looking: yesterday’s “action” was the most excitement we’ve had around here since Jayson Williams decided to ventilate his chauffeur. We don’t have a lot of crime in Hunterdon, but what little we have is spectacular. My fave is the flasher that works the canal & river bike paths. He’s flashed so many women (including my wife)- for so long- that now, people just laugh at him when he strikes.
BC (19)-
I prefer “deflating souffle”…but Grim got mad at me when I used that analogy, so I quit.
Grim, yeah, Alterna’s NJ office is Mt. Olive, I believe. Looks like they have shut down for real.
I’d love to know more details on this one. Slow business? Lost their funding?
jb
“Cut? With inflation running as hot as it has, and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, it might just be time for another rate hike.”
I agree with the gentleman from New Jersey.
you can’t look at today’s data in a vacuum. all other indications are for moderating growth. look at the big picture folks. you also don’t need recession-like conditions to have a rate cut.
re: deflating souffle
It’s only because after 5 years of trying, I still haven’t perfected my bitter chocolate souffle. You don’t know how many varieties of boutique chocolate, organic ingredients, antique copper bowls, ramekins, I’ve tried.
jb
i worked for grant thornton (GT) for a # of years and i still know some partners over there so let me give you an inside take. it’s an LLP and there were 2 partners who had those deals. the acceptance criteria were not met so they dropped them. nothing new and there’s no reason to draw any inferences to a larger problem. all i see in the article is a bunch of speculation on what happened, that’s all. GT is an old company out of the UK and they rarely do stupid things and if they do they usually unravel it well in advance. also GT is a middle market firm and as such they’ve never been or will be a threat to what once was the Big 8, then Big 6, then Big 6 now Big 4.
I was invited to spend some time with a close friend in El Salvador. My friend’s home is to put it mildly “extravagant”. There is one problem though; the house has a fortified wall around the compound crowned with concertina wire. While having breakfast in the delicately manicured garden, he mentioned that they have more liberty in El Salvador than Americans have in America. Being the gracious guest that I am, I nodded my head and asked what did he mean. He said that there are so many regulations for everything in America that he laughs every time Americans claim to be the Land of the Free, while in El Salvador you just have to be strong enough to “fight” to defend your rights. I could see what he meant.
-http://www.tyrantbook.com/
-http://www.realityzone.com/creature.html
-http://trendsaction.com/product.php?product=How+I+Found+Freedom+in+an+Unfree+World&ulaCartSID=oepckVCoIZqsvEsqCzwLchORh1175867110
Do not be put off by the title of the tyrant book, once you read it you will become aware of your true freedom. Like Neal in the Matrix movie taking the red pill.
-http://www.arrod.co.uk/essays/matrix.php
Just remove the dash before the link and cut and paste them in your browser address bar to go to the URLs.
#17
We’ve been looking in both USR and Rigdewood for the past year and we’re in that exact price range. In my opinion it’s the most difficult price range since you’re on the cusp of affording something very nice as opposed to settling for something mediocre. USR has some decent homes in the million plus range and anything worth looking at below this is typically located on a main road such as West Saddle River Road. The other thing to keep in mind since this community was primarily developed in the fifties the style of house is more often than not a high ranch which doesnt really appeal to todays buyer. We’ve seen a bunch of houses below a million but I have not been tempted to make an offer on any of them. The one good thing about USR is that you get a decent lot and lower taxes. If 850 is your max price you may get more value in Mahwah or Ramsey. The only issue with Mahwah from what I understand is the schools are not as good as Nothern Highlands or Ridgewood.
It’s only because after 5 years of trying, I still haven’t perfected my bitter chocolate souffle. You don’t know how many varieties of boutique chocolate, organic ingredients, antique copper bowls, ramekins, I’ve tried
Do you sleep? or are you in the manic stage of bipolar at all times? whoooo
KL
Do you sleep?
I find good espresso to be a satisfying substitute.
jb
“you also don’t need recession-like conditions to have a rate cut.”
Do you suggest that the present conditions warrant a rate cut; rising wages, core inflation outside the feds parameters and rising rates throughout the world? If the fed cut now the dollar would be hammered to oblivion and the long end will be sold [long rates rising].
A rate cut, at this time would be received negatively by the treasury market [long end].
However, there are a few asset classes that would benefit. Sorry, housing is not one of them.
bitter chocolate souffle
Good Eats!
Re: UnRealtor / MLS # 2369310
(This is a reply to a message posted on one of yesterday’s entries.)
I pass that house when I go jogging sometimes. Am I mistaken, or is it possible to buy a much nicer house for the same money ($903k) just down the road in nicer sections of Millburn or Short Hills?
Any insight into why or how it went for $100k over asking? Do you think it was a bidding war, clever seller’s agent, or something else entirely?
#28
Anxiety,
I would still prefer the better school system. In USR, it still seems like builders are the ones swooping in buying the ranches and split levels that are not in ‘prime’ condition. Have you noticed a slowdown?
Thanks,
Jersey4Life
Investor David,
http://bceagles.cstv.com/sports/m-hockey/recaps/040507aaa.html
There is not much talk about the Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton (Lehigh Valley) problem. Soo many people from NJ & NYC moved here during the last 5 years it created a real estate bubble that is collapsing here. It’s really funny to think about it. People driving 2-4 hours a day to sleep somewhere. The problem is they overpaid by about 100%. Does anyone remember the “WHY RENT” campaign that happened in the Poconos area in the late 80’s & 90’s? The same thing happened to that area, prices went up like crazy and then went down to pre-boom prices. That’s happening all around the Lehigh Valley, the local paper (morning call) doesn’t want to print anything concerning this, but it’s well known to anyone with eyes. I was curious since this is the NJ REAL ESTATE forum if anyone had thoughts on this? Us locals laughed when we watched the last 5 years of yellow license plates buying cookie cutter homes (built like crap, extrememly fast). People paying 300k for a new home that you could have paid 150k for 3 years earlier. Now that prices are dropping and inventory of homes are at record levels(summer isn’t even here yet…lol) this summer should be the beginning of the end for our local bubble.
#36
Lehigh Valley,
Many of the ones I know of retired around NNJ, made a mint on their houses, and don’t care about drops in the market, since they’ve now made the Poconos their retirement home. However, I do have a friend that bought a 3 unit rental who is now kicking himself.
Regards,
Jersey4Life
There is not much talk about the Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton (Lehigh Valley) problem. Soo many people from NJ & NYC moved here during the last 5 years it created a real estate bubble that is collapsing here. It’s really funny to think about it
I know a lot of people who’ve done that. I work in Parsippany, and this area is notorious for having people who live in PA commute here. Honestly, I can’t see commuting more then 45-60 minutes each way to work. My commute is about 15-20 minutes, traffic depending.
Then again, if I was makin the $$ I was in 1998-2001 (IT boom years), I’d travel 60 minutes each way.
“Does anyone remember the “WHY RENT” campaign”
Lehigh [36],
I remember it well. Last year I was called a wannabe, numerous times on this site. It’s funny, I don’t hear anyone promoting the argument of buying versus renting, at this time. It simply is amazing how the market/sentiment turns in just 1 year. Last year there was an argument that there is no bubble, then the market had stabilized, to dancing along the bottom. Currently, the discussion centers upon whether the subprime blowout will be contained. Simply an astonishing turn of events for a 1 year period.
Jersey4Life
There has certainly been somewhat of a slowdown. I have noticed that a number of homes priced between 750 and a million have been on the market since we started looking last March. I think the key will be the next month as I expect a number of new listings to come on.(Spring selling season) If there is an increase in the homes priced between 1 million and 1.2 then we may have a fighting chance of finding something that is appealing. MLS shows 13 homes for sale between 900 and 1.2. The next house after 1.2 is 1,350m. That’s a big gap…If more homes come on in the 900 to 1.2 range these people will start reducing prices as the spring and summer go on. What do you think?
Grim (26)-
What’s the main problem you’re having? Is it poor rising, rising then a fast collapse, or no rising at all?
Chocolate souffles tend to do better when you use a pastry cream base. Thinner bases are ok for fruit/flavored souffles, but you need the extra structure of pastry cream for chocolate.
“pastry cream”
Clot,
I’m confused, are we discussing souffles or the Tar Heel 2nd half performance versus the Hoyas?
By the way, am I the only one working today?
Is it poor rising, rising then a fast collapse, or no rising at all?
Clot, you are too funny! ;-)
Anxiety,
I agree with you. We will have to hope that an increase in inventory makes them (sellers) blink before us (buyers). I would like to get my oldest son (5) into the school for September. I’ll try to hold off blinking as much as poossible – or as much as the wife lets me.
Thanks,
Jersey4Life
Market conditions in the Morris County area of NJ. I’ve read a lot of negativity here on real estate. Let me give you my perspective. To be fair I have to disclose my position. I am a broker/associate for Coldwell Banker in Mountain Lakes, have a team of 7 that work for or with me. But I am also a real estate investor and invest in apartment buildings.
I read so many people shying away from real estate and I wonder why?? As a buyer, this is a great opportunity to find real estate. The prices have dropped in the past year but the rates are excellent and very low, it is still somewhat a buyers market and you would be able to possibly negotiate a great buy. Since November my team and the office in which we work has been super busy and these are not signs of a “Bubble”. The media has scared many buyers and many of those scared buyers are looking for an excuse not to buy. The smart investors and first time buyers will be glad they bought years from now. The only advise I would give to a buyer is that you make sure you are buying for at least 3-5 years and you’ll do very well.
Thanks for your insight Nick, and welcome to the site.
jb
Nick (45)-
Get your helmet on & prepare for the incoming.
Ok, fess up, which one of you is this?
Buffett-Style Home Buying
Carol Wydra, 56, is a tried and true value investor. Buying undervalued assets and selling overvalued ones is her passion. So in July 2005, when she read a post on her favorite Web site, valueforum.com, that said real estate prices had hit their peak, she took it to heart.
Wydra and her husband were already thinking of moving, and decided the time was right to jump off the housing bubble. So she put her four-bedroom, two-and-a-half bath colonial home in Williamsville, N.Y., up for sale, and it was sold in two weeks. She got $335,000 or $110 per square foot for her house, which is located about 12 miles outside of downtown Buffalo. She firmly believed that she had “sold high.”
I read so many people shying away from real estate and I wonder why??
Nick [45],
Could we possibly narrow the reason to one main fundamental factor; affordability.
I would agree with you if the easter bunny brought everyone a 60-80% pay raise on Monday. It all about fundamentals, every market is. When the fundamentals are out of whack, you then move into an arb play. That arb play is the sidelines. There is much more internal damage forthcoming. That said, after constructive/substantive changes are apparent, I will agree with your position, probably 2009-2011.
Clot [47],
Love it.
Can someone remind me what that last year of real affordability was, so I can base my lowball offers? I guess I would need to adjust upwards to take inflation into account, right?
Jersey Lifer [51],
My guidelines, 2001 prices with a yearly appreciation tied to the inflation rate.
From Reuters:
IMF said to cut ’07 U.S. growth forecast
The International Monetary Fund has revised down its forecast for U.S. economic growth by 0.4 percentage points to about 2.2 percent, a German newspaper reported in its online edition on Friday.
The slowing is only likely to be temporary, as U.S. growth is expected to pick up in 2008 to a rate of about 2.8 percent, according to a draft of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook seen by the Financial Times Deutschland.
Preliminary IMF figures last month put U.S. growth at 2.6 percent in 2007 and 3.0 percent next year, both 0.3 percentage points lower than the fund’s previous forecast in September.
Nick:
While I am one of the minority on this site that believe the crash will not occur, I do have one honest question for you…when in the last 10 years have you told any of your client that it’s not a good time to buy or to sell?
In my mind, there’s no way you can justify telling a buyer it was a good time to buy 2-4 yrs ago and be telling them the same thing now.
In any case, good to have abroker’s insight on things.
#54 Never did tell us why the crash won’t occur. I lived through the last housing crash….I know its different this time, and it is different its worse.
The people who recently moved here are not retirement people. They are basically blue collar NJ & NYC people who couldn’t afford to live where they worked. Most people find out they can’t handle losing 4 hours a day driving. What’s the use in having a home if you can’t enjoy it? These people who recently moved are finding out they have already lost equity in there homes and it’s getting worse. Our local prices are bound to drop back at least 50-75% and that’s with inflation for 5 years. These people that paid 250k for a home in 2005 are finding out their neighbors are having troubles selling the same unit for 175k in 2007. The morning call newspaper is not properly reporting the facts (vested interest in listening to whatever the realtors say). By late 2007 that house for 175 either will sell for 130k (what it’s really worth) or foreclosure, almost every day reports come out on how foreclosures & companies are rising at levels this country has never seen.
Check out this graph, this guy is no flake.
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Too me it’s like global warming, if 99 out of 100 of the top people tell me it’s happening, I am going to listen to the majority. The NAR & companies that have a vested interest are not going to tell you the truth. Why would they? Imagine how bad it really is since all these big corporation are talking negatively about the market. It’s worse than that!
bergen:
i believe the combination of low interest rates (still historically low by all measures), proximity to NYC, wall st doing relative well, etc. will lead to a leveling but not a crash…and i think the last 2 years have shown that.
i also think, which i have explained before, historically speaking, over the past 50-60 years, home prices have only gained an average of 2-3% each year, despite the ups and downs that occurred during certain periods…thus, taken as a whole, many of the selling prices are historically in line (the fact that there was a such a huge increase in prices the past few years, COULD indicate that the market had been depressed for awhile and this was just catch up to inflation or normal increase in prices).
again, this is my opinion only…
bergen:
also, dont get me wrong…i think that clearly some of the housing prices in the area are insance, but i also think that the average and medians are historically in line.
finally, as an example, i follow the brooklyn housing market closely. in many many areas (bklyn heights, park slope, clinton hill, ft greene, bed stuy, bay ridge, sunset park, etc.) the average prices have been rising at a quicker pace than in manhattan…especially over the past year or so.
it is my experience, that many many brooklynites (and manhattanites) move to the suburbs (westchester, nj, li) once their families sprout (i.e., see montclair) and they being two income families tend to support (i.e., overpay) for houses. it is a circular cycle (whereby the older residents move to retirement homes, the new families replace them, and the young kids replace the new families in the city)…i think that cycle is alive and well.
hope that’s clear.
historical ratio of median salary to median home price I think is 1:3
NJ median salary is about 70,000 to 367,000 median home price I’m ballparking my figures here but if there close we’re not in kine with historical ratio
also last RE bust was helped along by layoffs in the financial sector 1987 which helped prices down. I think this could happen again or is it different this time?
Foreclosures around the Philly area:
Foreclosures Hitting Up-Scale Areas As Well
A wave of house foreclosures that has swept the nation from coast to coast is also hitting the Pittsburgh area hard.
The number of foreclosures in our region has doubled in the past five years and is already on pace this year to hit an all time mark.
But you might be surprised to learn that it’s hitting hard in our affluent suburbs.
KDKA Investigator Andy Sheehan reports Shaler Township has long been a stable, upper middle class community — a nice place to raise a family.
In Shaler, we found a half dozen houses recently foreclosed upon where families were forced to turn over the keys and walk away — unable to keep up with their mortgage payments.
“I’ve never seen the foreclosure as they are,” said Northwood Realty’s Jo Anne Milesky.
Shaler isn’t alone. Once the scourge of lower class communities, the foreclosure wave is hitting our wealthier communities now.
“What I’m seeing now that I haven’t seen in 30 year of selling real estate is the fact that the higher priced homes are going into foreclosure not just the depressed areas,” said Milesky.
crossroads those historical ratios may be correct, but fortunately or unfortunately, these are different times. most of our parents and grandparents avoided debt at all costs, whereas today debt is embraced by citizens and the gov’t (whether that is good or bad is a different story). in any case, i think the 1:3 ratio is outdated, and more appropriate for our times (and it could be as a result of the housng priced, though that leads to a chicken/egg argument) is 1:4 or 1:5 depending on income. Also, the 1:3 ratio was utilized mainly when there were one=income households, which are definitely not the norm today.
Just back from a long weekend in Chapel Hill, visting family and friends in CCRCs, of which there are several first class options in the area.
RDU airport easy in/out. Roads gorgeous. Drove from Chapel Hill to north Raleigh in rush hour doing 65 the whole time in a brand new Hyundai Azera rental (was impressed). You call that traffic? Sat outside on a porch in a fine Chapel Hill restaurant, light breeze wafting across the bubbling fountain, co-eds bursting out everywhere, sipping a terrific mint julip served by a bartender who was just learning her trade. Polite, respectful folks everywhere.
Now it’s back to reality, Jersey style.
Glad to hear some perspective on the Lehigh Valley area. I was wondering how things would fare across the border.
Also, the 1:3 ratio was utilized mainly when there were one=income households, which are definitely not the norm today.
Use the median household income, not per capita income, to calculate this ratio. It’ll yield a ratio that takes this into account and is applicable over both periods.
jb
crossroads those historical ratios may be correct, but fortunately or unfortunately, these are different times. most of our parents and grandparents avoided debt at all costs, whereas today debt is embraced by citizens and the gov’t
I have a hard time trying to apply your example to what happened to home prices in the past 5 years. There have been massive societal and demographic shifts since “my grandparents”. However, I fail to see how that is directly applicable to the past 5-7 years. The issues you describe have been decades in the making.
jb
Nick
To give you some perspective from a first time buyer. Wife and I are highly educated professionals, both early thirties, sub 200k combined salaries but darn close, we were looking at houses 2.5 times our take home wage which put us around 300K. Could we afford more sure we could, but what if one of us lost our jobs? Plus a house is just a place to store our stuff, and lay our heads at night. Still we wanted a home, a sanctuary from the pace of our daily lives. Not a condo, not a rundown 60 year old shack on a postage stamp lot because these days, as we soon found out, that is what was in out price range. Not to mention the taxes in our lovely state and the impending insolvency of the state governement. When looking at houses I used the available research tools at my disposal and came to one resounding conclusion I could have had the house I wanted in 2001, (1/2 acre, 1500sq ft, quiet neighborhood, reasonable distance from population centers), but those places do not exist in NJ any longer. This has all added up to extracting as much as possible salary wise while renting to buy a house outright elsehwere. It is all about afforability and what the buyers are willing to pay. Now back to my regularly scheduled lurking
NJ Median Home Price vs Median Family Income:
Year MHP MFI Ratio
1999 166,800 63,381 2.63
2000 179,900 66,614 2.70
2001 200,000 69,042 2.89
2002 246,300 73,772 3.34
2003 280,000 73,333 3.82
2004 301,675 76,287 3.95
2005 344,300 78,898 4.36
2006 362,900 81,663 4.44
In 7 years home prices increased 117%, salaries increased by 28%.
Salaries increased by less than 4% a year over this time, while home prices increased more than 11% a year.
I think this illustrates the recent affordability problem perfectly.
jb
jb:
seriously, do you have all these tables saved somewhere on some network you can access immediately?
#68
Painhrtz, if I may ask, what towns were you looking in?
re: 70…i’d agree, however, there is always the fact that people might have lived by the 1:3 rule even though they could have afforded more. just b/c it’s now 1:4.5 doesn’t necessarily means it;’s not affordable…all it means is that’s it’s higher than past #s, which noone can argue were not conservative.
What bubble,
100k salary does not support a 500k mortgage. If you put down 100k, it still does not support a 400k mortgage. Mortgage, taxes and ins will run you approx 4k per month, on a 500k mortgage. What is your monthly income, after taxes and 401k contribution? If you are not putting $ into a 401k, especialy one which your employer contributes, you are simply foolish.
I think most of the dfference is coming from the costs of building a house. The cost of building a 200K SFH at 2001 is not around 300K or more due to inflation, and the high oil prices that drove everything.
Particularly I don’t think the published inflation rate is realistic in US. Between 2000 and 2007, the inflation to me is around 9-10% per year. if you look at the euro-dollar parities and look globally you would understand that, but I know it is very hard to accept. But 1000$ on 2000 buys about 750$ now. So the house price increases is not just hoax, some of it is reality, some of it is unmentioned inflation, and of course 40-50 percent of it speculation.
I think the people that still don’t think there is a bubble are maxed out with debt. Who could not look at the big picture and come to a conclusion that nothing like this historically has ever happened. The data doesn’t lie, realtors & newspapers do. In 2000 the stock market was crashing & the feds had to delay the inevitable. Now the market might be in trouble too. Too me that’s a double whammy! Look at this graph, afterwards explain to me again why & how the prices of real estate should have jumped 100% + in 5 years.
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Anyone care to comment after reading that graph?
correction to my post. sorry
is now around 300K.
750$ of 2000 is equal to 1000$ now for buying power.
Jesey4Life # 72
Originally Bloomingdale, River Edge, Pequanock Pompton Plains, Parsippany then the wife got a new gig in central jersey.
So we started looking in Bridgewater, Bound Brook, Green Brook, Mendham, Whitehouse Station.
I’m on the road 2 weeks out of a month so just makes more sense to be closer to her job. Plus since we both work in the Pharma industry being a little more centrally located opened up more job opportunities
From MarketWatch:
American Home Mortgage slashes forecast
American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. on Friday slashed its first-quarter and full-year earnings forecasts, blaming conditions in the secondary mortgage and mortgage-backed securities markets. The Melville, N.Y.-based company now expects first-quarter earnings of 40 cents to 60 cents a share, down from its previous view of $1.11 to $1.17 a share. For 2007, American Home Mortgage forecast earnings of $3.75 to $4.25 a share, compared with the $5.40 to $5.70 a share it previously predicted. The company also said it is cutting its quarterly dividend to 70 cents a share from its previous level of $1.12 a share. “During March, conditions in the secondary mortgage and mortgage securities markets changed sharply,” said Michael Strauss, chairman and chief executive, in a statement. Strauss said the “changes had a significant, adverse impact on our company’s first quarter results, reducing our gain on sale revenue and causing mark-to-market losses in our portfolio. While the market may recover, and while we will attempt to restore our gain on sale margins by raising interest rates charged to consumers, our working assumption must be that current market conditions will persist and that our gain on sale margins will not recover through the balance of the year.”
Additional (important) snippet from the BusinessWire Release:
In particular, these markets were characterized by far few buyers offering materially lower prices, both for loan pools and for “AA”, “A”, “BBB” and residual mortgage securities.
Fanshawe, #34, writes:
You are not mistaken, this house should have sold under the $799 asking — probably $775K. It is indeed possible to buy a much nicer house, on a much larger lot, in this same town.
No specifics, but looks like two aspiring bagholders did the bidding war dance, and one of them “won.”
Here are the details originally posted in the other thread:
These bagholders need their head examined.
They just closed @ $903K (listed at $799K Jan 29, 2007) for this small house on a tiny 50×125 lot:
MLS # 2369310
930 Ridgewood Road
Millburn, NJ 07041
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?mlnum=2369310&num=0&res=highres&imgcnt=6
The lot is so small, the back “yard” consists of a garage, and both neighboring houses are only 15 feet away.
The house was bought in 1996 for $324K — 5% annual appreciation would put it at $530K today.
Haven’t seen this much buyer stupidity since 2005.
For the record a good number of the homes we liked were 400K-450K. If it weren’t the “bubble” they would have easily fell within our price range had they tracked historical appreciation rates from last sale.
what bubble, it’s nice to see your counter viewpoint. i agree with much of what you’re saying. i also agree with things grim says about massive run-up’s in the last 5-7 years. as in most things the truth is probably a bit of both.
>>historical ratio of median salary to median home price I think is 1:3
the income to house price ratio is treated as some kind of inalienable truth that must be established at some point. why is there no room for change? the forces that come to bear on the market are varied and complex to explain movements in such a simple way.
#73
if 1:4.5 were affordable we wouldn’t beseeing a rise in foreclosures it’s only affordable if you use arm/io type loans and think about trying to save %20 down while renting its insane.
credit tightening has started even here close to nyc
richard…as clot says, we might as well put our helmets on now though.
in any case, the nytimes graph has been shown and gone thru many times…if you looked at that graph and disregarded the last 5 yrs or so, the avg home appreciation would be almost less than inflation, which is ridiculous. however, if you ignore the actual linemarkings and start from 1890 and draw a straight line to today, and average those annual increases out, it comes to about 3%…which seems about right.
the problem w/ the chart is that it assumes housing prices should only increase at the rate of inflation (or deflation)…that’s not right as most people view RE as an investment vehicle. noone would assume stocks should get returns at the rate of inflation.
Just to give you all an idea for how much higher salaries would have to increase to restore the same level of affordability as 1999..
NJ Median Home Price vs Median Family Income:
Year MHP MFI Ratio
1999 166,800 63,381 2.63
…
2006 362,900 81,663 4.44
…
20## 362,900 137,984 2.63
We only need salaries to increase by 69%. At our current pace of 4% yearly salary growth, it would only take 13 years to get there. And that is with home prices staying flat over that time.
jb
Also, the 1:3 ratio was utilized mainly when there were one=income households, which are definitely not the norm today.
Regarding our mothers and fathers with single family income – they did not have to pay childcare, they did not have double commuting expences, healthcare was not goint up with 3x salary increases rates…
Two Income families – meaning you have to pay childcare, which our parents/grandparents did not pay.
So in reality new ratio should be more like 1:2 for 2 family income – not even 1:3.
Thats for people making under 150K. for people who makes 200k+ /each person in the family costs of insurance, food and medical does not increase, so they might be able to spend more on housing.
But I just do not see how an average family of 3 can have 360K mortgage with 85K income, and still have enought money to pay their bills – food, transportation, utilities, insurance and so on.
Of course you have to consider household income.
In Addition: Taxes – the more money you make the less help you get, more taxes you pay.
For childcare: right now with NJ prices for it it does not make sense to get a job which pays under 35K, once you count commuting expences, clothing, childcare costs and the fact that all thouse expences comes after taxes.
(of course single income in the family should provide medical insurance for the family)
Unfortunatelly, I am finding out first hand: having kids greatly discouraged nowadays.
I am just wondering who will pay future generation (our generation) medicare and social security??
crossroads..we are seeing an increase in foreclosures mainly due to option arms, which should be illegal as they only add principal to what you borrowed. further, most foreclosure activity is w/ people who didn’t have the credit to borrow or the income to borrow..that has nothing to do w/ the housing prices but everything to do w/ mortgage companies trying to make more $$
Your all wrong about the bubble. Zillow says that my house has increased $31,000 in the last 30 days alone.
I’m off to Best Buy to get a flat-screen!
>>They just closed @ $903K (listed at $799K Jan 29, 2007) for this small house on a tiny 50×125 lot. The lot is so small, the back “yard” consists of a garage, and both neighboring houses are only 15 feet away.
you’re in millburn in a very desirable area of town. 50×125 is near the average size for plots near town in a top town. if you want more land move to PA and pay 1/5th. it’s all about location. still over $900k for that house is a bit ridiculous. even in these times it shouldn’t of went for more than mid $700’s.
jb: re: your salary chart, but w. two income homes most people are at that point. if the avg person’s salary is $80K or so, then 2 people are at $150K, thus the ratio is restored.
JB -could yo recalculate affordability post for year 2001 – I do believe 1999 was an exeptional year – right at the bottom/beginning of the recovery from the 1990’s bust??
#70
Also, 100% property tax increase over these years
The dude just can’t read: NJ Median Home Price vs Median Family Income:
84,
if 1:3 is to simple ca we look at the affordability index?
or are they tied together?
al: it seems to me we are having a civilized conversation here…no reason to attack.
i am sorry i misread something, may god (and al) forgive me on this holy day.
god (and al) forbid I have a differing opinion
what bubble?,
The figure I used was median family income, not per capita. It takes into account all wage earners.
jb
here’s the problem jb:
if you look simply at median family income for 2 income families in suburban towns in NJ (which this site is mostly focused on), that median family income is anywhere from $105K up…check it out on the census websites. it’s not fair to use median family incomes for all of NJ and w/o taking into consideration separate stats for 2 income families in a specifi area (as the market in nnj is clearly not the same in southern nj)…just saying.
in other words you have to look at the stats for the market for these homes (mostly families). to take into account what a single male in trenton makes is irrelevant. look at the stats for the suburban towns in nnj who have 2 income families and you’ll see those earnings are well into the 6 figures. that changes the calculation of your table a bit.
>>it’s only affordable if you use arm/io type loans
yes people are using them as affordability products and that skews interpretation of the data. you can have people paying vastly different mortgage payments for the same amount borrowed. the question is do people even think about risk appetite or is it how much is my monthly payment? me thinks it’s more the latter.
Al,
To get back to 2001 levels, median family income would need to rise to approximately $125,000.
Looking at it another way, prices would need to fall by roughly 50%.
Or some combination thereof. Salaries up ~20% and home prices down ~30%..
jb
Here’s a nice video on how a speculative real estate bubble will deflate:
http://www.speculativebubble.com/videos/housing-bubble.php
Realtor Nick in #46, so you think “now is a good time to buy”?
Perhaps for an aspiring bagholder.
The “media” is scaring people now? Did you have a problem with the “media” when it was hyping real estate on the way up?
The media are lagging far behind the story of housing unaffordability and toxic mortgages people are using to become massively in debt.
The recent subprime meltdown was too much for the “media” to ignore, though, and they finally started to report on the unfolding real estate train wreck we’ve been documenting and discussing here for years.
it’s not fair to use median family incomes for all of NJ and w/o taking into consideration separate stats for 2 income families in a specifi area (as the market in nnj is clearly not the same in southern nj)…just saying.
what bubble?,
Just let me know what combination of numbers you want run.
jb
Grim, not having much luck posting, between 500 server errors, hyperlinks causing moderation, and posts disappearing.
:(
i already looked them up…in 2005 the median family income in all of bergen county (so that takes into account poorer areas as well) for 2 income families was $105K….if you look in specific towns the numbers rise by a good amount.
so for example, if you look in millburn, summit, chatham, or even less “desireable” areas, like nutley, rutherford, etc., the numbers are way above $80K…
my point is, and i think you probably agree, looking at the state as a whole and not concentrating on specific areas and specific numbers where there are 2 income families skews the numbers. if a 2 income family is averaging $150K in many of these towns and the avg house is $600K or so, then that’s 1:4 and factoring everything in, that’s probably affordable.
what bubble?
the towns w/ $105k income have much higher median priced homes same for nnj vs. snj so the 1:3 is still out of whack
also regarding #89
if you take out option arms and people who didn’t have the credit to buy a house prices never would have reached the current levels. they’re all tied together as you will see when credit tightens further less homebuyers less demand w/ high inventories
and as far as mortgage co. looking to make more $$ your right but prices went up as a result.
the real problem is a credit bubble
so the NFP was strong today, no recession soon. Will it help housing? Havent seen mortgage applications pick up this spring
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/51358.htm
and rates going up tomorrow will not help either.
more like a debt bubble…but i don’t disagree.
and the towns w/ the much higher median priced homes have MUCH higher median family incomes (like $180K or higher)…you can look this all up on the census site or a host of other sites.
Do you have excel files for sales data in Morris County NJ prior to August 2006?
Thanks for making such an informative, open forum…
Theresa
“you’re in millburn in a very desirable area of town. 50×125 is near the average size for plots near town in a top town. if you want more land move to PA and pay 1/5th. it’s all about location.”
No need for useless rhetoric, Richard.
The only point was that $900k could have bought a much nicer house in Millburn/Short Hills. Where that house is, is getting darn close to the “not quite as desirable” area of town near the high school.
what bubble?,
At what point does the ratio become unsustainable? 1:5? 1:6?
If a $150k income family can afford $600k, why not $750k?
Just what is “affordable”?
jb
jb,
how about the affordability index?
Nick,
Because of people like you we have the highest foreclosure rates in years, declining prices and lowest affordability in years. This is just a beginning. Professionals like you, supposed to be helping people, not selling them houses which they can not afford (including myself) while charging them outrageous commissions. Please stop smoking crack and come down to earth!
Theresa,
If you could be more specific, I’d be glad to get it for you.
jb
What bubble:
“the problem w/ the chart is that it assumes housing prices should only increase at the rate of inflation (or deflation)…that’s not right as most people view RE as an investment vehicle. noone would assume stocks should get returns at the rate of inflation.”
The view of RE (actually the primary residence) as an investment vehicle is not the historical norm, before the past 5 years, it was viewed as a place to live more than anything.
Secondly, if the cost of housing (without funny money mortgages) is somewhat moderated by the incomes of those buying the houses, and incomes lie close to inflation, then house values have to lie close to inflation too.
In other words – housing as a get rich quick scheme, or even as a well above inflation investment, without sudden injections of easy credit, is in the long term a losing proposition.
Terrible story out of California..
Judge blocks foreclosure pending fraud trial
San Joaquin County Superior Court Judge Richard Mallett this morning froze the foreclosure of a Stockton couple’s home that was allegedly put into jeopardy by their grandson who is now charged with fraud and elder abuse.
Under Mallett’s order, Herman and Audrey Percy’s home cannot be sold or transferred until after the July criminal trial of their grandson, Rodney Jackson, 25, charged on a dozen felony counts for fraudulently taking loans against his grandparents’ property and defaulting on those loans.
Property Asset Management Inc. sought to foreclose and collect on the loans totaling $121,471.
Adding to #112, several houses have closed in the area with 1/3 and 1/2 acre lots for well under $903K.
The worst bagholder move I had seen, prior to this sale, was a cape bought for $850K in 2005 on a street where the highest sale was $600K. All the houses were identical, same crap cape, same crap 10 foot “yard,” same neighbor’s window ten feet away on each side. $850K. Because a flipper threw in some granite counters.
Now this house, at $903K, there is simply no justification. This is King Bagholder.
To illustrate just how stupid this Ridgewood Road buyer is, here’s a house that closed at $837K in February:
MLS # 2350850
9 Burnside Drive
Short Hills, NJ 07078
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?mlnum=2350850&num=0&res=highres&imgcnt=6
That’s a gorgeous house, with a 2 car garage, .4 acres, ultra-quiet culdesac, and located in Short Hills within walking distance to the Midtown Direct train.
Blows away that $903K POS.
any information about South Brunswick area real estate market.
I have been monitoring the area for almost a year, and I can’t seem to find a single family 3br and
any information about South Brunswick area real estate market.
I have been monitoring the area for almost a year, and I can’t seem to find a single family 3br,
sorry about the duplicate post.
for some reason the text in my message get trancated. anyway, I’m looking for a SF in South Brunswick, 3 br, less than 15 years and in the Mid $400. only ranches in this price range, or over 30 years old splits.
I believe once the dust settles and all the FK and BK are gone – we all will be amazed on amount of fraud which is going on – it is very easy –
1. get inflated appraisal (let’s say by 250K). 2. Find someone who is not afraid to go stated, do not care aboutbtehir credit rating.
3. Sell you home, split 250K between two people
125K is a lot more than most people save in 7 years, not even speaking of just ruind credit.
Find someone who is going to declare BK anyways – knows that he is over his head in CC debt for wexample but not yet missed any payments – this person credit history is still good, easy to get loans.
Second person walks away unscratched.
Fraus is extremelly hard to prove – only by checking persons IRS returns – but after that you’d have to check millions upon millions returns.
Look at CA, CO, AZ, TX, FL – we are already seeing tips of the aiceberg and soon we will see it here as well.
From MarketWatch:
American Home Mortgage cuts profit forecast
Warning suggests subprime woes are spreading to other home loans
American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. cut its first-quarter and full-year profit forecast by more than 25% Friday after being hit by problems in the secondary market for home loans and mortgage-backed securities.
The company also said that it’s stopped offering some types of so-called Alt-A mortgages because of the high cost of delinquencies on those loans.
The warning suggests that problems in the subprime-mortgage business have begun spreading to other parts of the home-loan industry.
More at the link above,
Rich
What bubble[97],
A differnt opinion is healthy, however is should be supported.
Can you please explain how a 100k salary supports a 500k house/condo?? I don’t care if you put down zero or 100k. I base my calculations on after tax income and figure into the equation a contribution into a 401k plan. If you don’t figure that into the equation or some other recipe for savings, you just become a govt statistic when you retire. Subsequently, you become part of the masses crying for some govt support/assistance program, aka a retirement bailout.
Here are the March stats for SB (GSMLS).
Active Listings
Mar,2006 – 58 Dom:86 (Med. $489,900)
Mar,2007 – 92 Dom:100 (Med. $459,900)
New Listings
Mar,2006 – 13 (Med. $549,900)
Mar,2007 – 16 (Med. $429,000)
Under Contract
Mar,2006 – 2 (Med. $409,900)
Mar,2007 – 15 (Med. $379,900)
Sold
Mar,2006 – 2 Dom:77 (Med. $515,000)
Mar,2007 – 6 Dom:81 (Med. $463,000)
I went to the open house at 930 Ridgewood Road. The house is bigger inside than it looks – it also seems to be in very good condition.
The realtor told us that there were 11 or 12 offers (I think – in any case, multiple offers) and that if we were serious we should put our offer in.
At that point – we left. I didn’t even like it at 799K. I’m disappointed that it went for 903K as it’s not such a great looking house, and it is not on a very nice street.
It seems that anything in Millburn under 1MM that’s in good condition goes pretty quickly.
Interesting paper about CA:
http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=4794
Foreclosures sold at auction now account for 15 percent of all home sales in California and continue to rise,” says Sean O’Toole, CEO and founder of Foreclosure Radar. “This isn’t just a story about failing subprime lenders and their customers. At the current pace, foreclosures will be a significant part of the real estate economy. A fact which bears close scrutiny even in areas that are not yet affected
Anybody else thinks that 15% of all sales being FK is very abnormal?? OR is it just another insignificant “corection”??
NJ GUY –
The only 3 bedrooms I can think of in South Brunswick are in zip 08810, Woodland Estates, built in the ’80’s. They are a mix of ranches in a development, very small lots, low fees. There are around 5 for sale right now priced at around $400k.
(Not a realtor, a friend lives in the development).
NNJ prices have surpassed CA prices in 2006…
Central Jersey is about the same or higher (if you compare sizes of houses there and here)
Whats is next for NJ??
This video below tells us all !!!
Fires, foreclosures, high taxes plague NT neighborhood
April 4th, 2007
With stunning views, abundant trees and manmade lakes, theres hardly a prettier place in North Texas than Lake Ridge. On the southwest edge of Cedar Hill, the developments custom homes on oversized lots make a clear statement of prosperity.
http://www.wfaa.com/video/wfaageneral-index.html?nvid=133491&shu=1
From MarketWatch:
House committee plans mortgage-foreclosure hearing
The House Financial Services Committee is planning a hearing about possible responses to increases in home mortgage foreclosures, Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., announced Friday. The April 17 hearing will focus particularly on the subprime mortgage market, according to the committee. Witnesses will include representatives from the mortgage industry as well as mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration. Consumer groups will also testify. The hearing is scheduled for 10 a.m. Eastern time.
“Anybody else thinks that 15% of all sales being FK is very abnormal??”
Al[128],
That is an incredible #. I am not suprised with the total, but very suprised with the timing. I thought we would be seeing this in 2008-2009, not early 2007. Very ominous, at least to me.
NNJ prices have surpassed CA prices in 2006…
Central Jersey is about the same or higher (if you compare sizes of houses there and here)
Whats is next for NJ??
We can only hope for a kick-ass movie-star governor to replace the ugly one we have right now.
Arnold, come to jersey. We have some people that need to be terminated.
Does anyone know the history behind the mexican ghetto right next to Rutgers cook campus in New Brunswick?
It looks like almost everyone there is undocumented. It’s such a prime location and would love to live in that neighborhood since it’s so close to work – but cannot because of all the other ‘stuff’ that comes with it.
Off topic,
“The significance of “dark pool” transactions cannot be underestimated – – a recent estimate is that 10% of all equity transactions occur in “dark pools,” and that this number is growing.”
“For those not inclined to visit finextra.com’s or financetech.com’s websites to read the very revealing articles, the following excerpts will provide a sampling of the import of ‘dark liquidity’:
“Regarding JP Morgan’s subsidiary: “Neovest has established connectivity to 15 ‘dark pools’ of liquidity – – trading networks that do not publish quotes in the open market…”
“Neovest currently provides access to over 100 broker destinations and a range of dark pool algorithms….”
“Regarding Goldman Sachs’ new platform “…the new platform will provide customers with access to deals that are not offered publicly on any exchange…(to) provide clients with access to dark liquidity pools.”
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/deepcaster/2007/0406.html
jb – my post got stuck in your filter
Bob,
My kid wanted to practice hockey this morning. So wake up at 4:30 AM and took him for stick time at Westchester between 6am-9am and I am beat.
I once had a dinner with Mike Eruzione (my buddy is a big booster for BU and his name is engraved at the ice rink at BU) and he was so nice to my kid (my son was asking about the movie, Miracle) that I always liked BU.
But since it’s BC and Michigan State, I want BC to win. :)
According to architect Gary who is building a huge mansion in Closter, it’s much cheaper to build box shaped McMansions.
RentLord #135, New Brunswick has been a dump for many years. Yours is the first time I’ve seen the phrase “prime location” mentioned while discussing New Brunswick.
By the way, as reported today, bls indicated a 80% higher # regarding job growth as compared to ADP. What gives?
Richie,
Why Arnold?
This is who I want for our governor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cicciolina
Ratios are only a guide IMO. There should be more talk about the Spending/Saving habits of individuals.
You could have two couples making identical incomes, however the spendthrifts will never get ahead or will be able to ‘afford’ a house/downpayment no matter what.
We just assume everyone has the same habits w/these tables which is flat out wrong
David [138],
I met Mike Eruzione in Boston, great guy. Hard for a BC grad to say, anything positive about BU. BC-BU hockey is like NC-Duke, B-Ball. Clot, before you jump thru your monitor, let me re-phrase. It, in a small manner, approaches NC-Duke.
Glad you’re pulling for the good guys.
David [142],
I just lost my crackers.
Why Arnold?
This is who I want for our governor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cicciolina
Honestly, anyone except Corzine will do.
He was making good headway in the beginning, but now I doubt him. His whole crackdown on ethics is coming back to haunt him.
Grim, whatbubble, et al:
I think we should get the focus back on the Plankton. People further up the property ladder may have bought into housing at any ratio we choose to believe, but right now, the first-time prospective buyers- who grease the wheels of the entire RE mechanism- are non-existent.
If you’re sitting with a 700K- 1MIL house and can’t get it sold because the logjam at the lower price levels won’t break, affordability indices are of little solace.
I’ve often wondered what would be the response by RE people to this site (Nick # 46) – dread? indignation? – when JB posted awhile back that there were banks and RE etc. checking in on this site as well.
The freedom of the internet is a beautiful thing, just hope that future generations will benefit from its continued development and exploration, and not have it eventually shut down and controlled by corporations, etc. We’ll really need to fight for that one.
#88 Al got it right about affordability. When we went to get a pre-approval for a home mortgage from our bank, the mortgage officer was quick to say over and over that we could easily afford a 550K house. Affordability ratio or not, every time I do the math and add up our bills ( and no, we do not have credit card debt), the most we can really afford is 350K, and still have $ left over to save. It’s not just about how far you can stretch, it’s about living within your means and having a quality life.
Question – does ’what bubble’ work for RE?
BC Bob,
did clot go to Duke? or NC?
Williamsville is pretty nice (not as nice as Amherst, but they do have the Buffalo Brewpub and a Pancake House), they lucked out to sell that high.. But the Buffalo area is mostly dead: the universities and small firms they spawn, MBNA and M&T downtown, some cross-border shopping from Canada, not much else. Taxes are high, government’s corrupt, the belt is rusty, salaries are low. A $80k house in Buffalo might look enticing to a CA specuvestor, but that could be on a street with 4 boarded-up old homes, because the block had a bunch of GM workers who moved or were evicted.
It’s actually like a mini-Detroit, except for the colleges and universities (per capita I’m sure there’s more higher education in Buffalo than in Detroit).
I love to visit, hit Duff’s for the superhot wings, and play some Settlers or Ticket To Ride with my buds. But there’s no way I’d live there..
Affordability:
My mortgage is about 15%-20% of what I take home. I feel quite comfortable with that amount.
On the other hand, my previous investment property had negative cash flow since rent was too cheap – yes, I was subsidizing my renter, though I made my money back when I sold it (but if you calculate the amount of time the condo was empty, closing cost and state and federal capital gain’s tax, etc. it’s not as great as people think it is).
#150: Otis
I was in Buffalo about 6 or 7 years to do some consulting work for Praxair.
Boy, oh boy. Even if someone pay me to live there, I would just take the money and run. There were so many empty ghost houses there when I was there.
Information wants to be free (motto for Hackers).
Some might try to contain and restrict information, but eventually it will get out.
For a long time, real estate brokers/agents controlled the information and consumers didn’t have much understanding of it, nor access to it.
“did clot go to Duke? or NC?”
David [149],
Depends on what your definition of “go” is. Now I sound like Teflon Bill.
He attended the Tar Heel Univ.. However, I don’t know if he went to class or sat in his dorm and calculated a method on how to beat the point spreads, oh don’t forget, social director of the dorm.
Frank (115)-
Your Howard Beale (“I’m mad as hell…and I’m not gonna take this anymore.” See http://www.whysanity.net/monos/network3.html) act is getting threadbare.
Guess what? Salespeople sell. No one who sells ANYTHING has saving people from themselves as #1 on his daily “to do” list. If there’s a loan pre-approval in place, guess what? That’s guy’s gonna get sold a house. Caveat friggin’ emptor if the buyer has gone and chained himself to a toxic liar loan.
There are plenty of agents who dispense accurate market information. Even our new friend, Nick, qualified his statements by saying that there’s opportunity now for people looking to own from 3-5 years out. Furthermore, I have stated many times on this board that today’s market is NOT for everyone.
And, speaking of commissions, people are paying us out of their own free will. We don’t hold guns to their heads. There has been constant downward pressure on commissions for years, and there always will be. No-skill internet agencies offer lower-cost “services” to buyers and sellers, yet they never gain any traction. Could it be that the vast majority of buyers and sellers out there pay us what they do because they’re OK with it? Banish the thought…
“…(you’re)supposed to be helping people, not selling them houses which they can not afford (including myself)…” sounds faintly to me like “please make it 1996 again”. Well, it’s not. I don’t know what’s coming next; perhaps we’ll see another 20% or so come off today’s prices (Bill Gross seems to think so, and he’s a lot smarter than I, so I’ll defer to him.). However, NJ will remain an expensive place to live, and the costs of taxes, insurance and paying for our mess of a government are not going to go away.
Get used to it, or get out. There are 49 other states in the US. One of them must be to your liking.
InvestorDavid (149)-
Moi? Dook?
Shut the f*** up. That’s not even funny.
BTW, I studied beer.
I thought UNC and NC State was a big rivalry.
and yes, you do sound like Slick Willy. :)
I once thought about sending my kid to Del barton but after that Lacross incident in Duke… and that kid is my best friend’s neighbor.. Del Barton graduate..
Hey Nick-
Get in here, grab a bucket and start bailing!
I won’t have your back forever. These permabears will rip you up if you don’t crack back hard.
Investor David,
Closing costs and commissions really take a larger chunk than people realize. I had a buddy that tried to flip a house that he bought for 450k. He ended up selling it for $450k after 18 months. He figures that he lost about $70k in interest, commissions, taxes, etc. Some people look at buying and selling prices and figure that he broke even. Far from it.
Dave (157)-
NC State is a cow college.
And, you should like that I sound like Slick Willie…since that cow of a wife of his can’t wait to get into our wallets to “fix” all our problems (like the fact that some people have more than others).
Clot,
If you studied bier in Germany, especially Bovaria (home of BMW), you would be highly respected. Brewmeister in Bovaria has the oppossite status of ….
Clot,
didn’t know the reputation of NC State.. I didn’t know that civilization existed below the Mason-Dixon line. hahahhaa..
Liberals support not just Hillary.. Clot.. I am still waiting for Robert Kennedy to return. :)
unRealtor, #140 – “prime” as in convenient for me ;-)
but if you look at it, that place is walking distance to new brunswick station and easy commute to nyc.
d2b,
I bought a condo at $275K in 2002 and sold it at $415K in May, 2006. No, I didn’t make $140K. Monthly negative cash flow, condo empty for total of about 10 months, closing cost, commission, city title transfer tax, capital gains tax (this is the real killer – federal and state), etc. – I think I probably made $70K at the most.
Clot,
a question:
How’s commercial real estate market?
I personally believe that you can make money in Real Estate if you want to hold it for 5-10 years.
For a short term, I like to play with precious metal market.
When nothing is interesting, I usually buy 10 year CD with one option inserted – no pre-withdrawal penalty. :)
“These permabears will rip you up if you don’t crack back hard.”
Clot[158],
Permabears? Come on, not true at all. I will vouch for RE until I’m blue in the face, that is 1985-2002/2003 RE. Sorry, I can’t vouch for 2003-2006 RE, more akin to pork bellies. Speaking of bellies, is Hillary short/long/or spread? David, the latter refers to her trading position.
David (165)-
Commercial market is OK. 287 corridor in Middlesex and the Newark airport area are both doing pretty well.
Vacancies are down in the Bridgewater 206/287 area, too. Sanofi-Aventis is sucking it all up.
I do a little commercial work, and I am constantly amazed by the strength in small business, even though NJ’s supposedly only creating McJobs and driving away highly-skilled people. We just let office space in Somerville last week at $20/ft…that’s hugely above-market for the town.
BTW…please don’t hold your breath waiting for another Kennedy. Although I do think Obama’s gonna meet the same end.
BC (167)-
Naked short. Hope that visual sticks with you through Easter dinner.
Clot,
My post was directed to realtors who want to manipulate and misrepresent the info that’s out there.
I respect honest RE, and yes, Nick make some good points. It still seems like some of Nick’s comments are more realtor -speak, though –
‘I read so many people shying away from real estate and I wonder why??’
All sorts of interesting mortgage news on a day where the markets are closed.. going into a weekend…
Fieldstone Investment to cut workforce 14%; close offices
Fieldstone Investment Corp. said Friday it plans to cut its workforce by at least 125 positions, or 14%, and reduce the number of its wholesale operations centers to three from nine. The company also said it will close nine of its smaller retail branch offices, and is evaluating the size of its home office staff reductions. The Columbia, Md.-based mortgage banking company said it expects to take a pretax charge related to the consolidations of about $550,000 in the first quarter.
Bob,
now, that’s a below the belt blow. :) (I am getting so good at alliteration – been going over it with my kid lately) and I like the last word in that sentence.
Hillary prefers anything that has white and water in it.
As for what Billy likes, let’s ask Monica whether Billy is short/long or spread – and speaking of spread and Monica’s dress…
Clot,
thanks for the info.
How about commercial market in Bergen County?
P.S. $20/ft seems awfully cheap.
Fieldstone is a “non-conforming” lender..
jb
You think this guy reads this site?
http://brokeruniverse.com/grapevine/thread/?thread=387104
looking in nj (170)-
No argument there. That “I wonder why” stuff does ring hollow.
Clot,
Don’t know enough about Obama’s stance on various issues to make any comment.
I am waiting for someone other than Obama or Hillary. Since Rudy is Pro-Choice and a moderate Republican, if there is no other stellar names in Democrat, I could go for Rudy.
David (173)-
Don’t know Bergen Co.
Visit Somerville. Then you’ll know $20 is a fortune there…
David (177)-
I could go for Rudy too, but I think he’s gonna get derailed between now and the convention. Too many skeletons in the closet for such an uptight bunch.
I could see the Repubs making a “devil’s pact” with Romney. Even though he’s conservative, you know that Mormon thing makes the Falwell types squirm.
Clot,
Was looking to rent a space in Manhattan. Did you know that they even count the basement as part of the space if you take the first floor?
How about a housing market near Green Brook?
I just wish we get a lesser of two evils.
Please NO Religious fanatics and none of those Born Again Christians. and No one close to Cheney.
Now, if all those folks from Red States can read and write… and stop marrying their siblings and cousins.. hahahha
I could go for Jimmy B as a write-in. :)
okay, totally off-topic, but since clot, id, and bc are on have to ask this…
a friend who went to a cpa to get her taxes filed (new to NJ), found a few mistakes on the return. Also, she was not too happy with his charges, which he would not disclose until after he completed the return. She felt pressured to just pay him, but now can’t file and will need corrections on the return. What do you all suggest?
thanks in advance! Have a great holiday!
afe
Afe,
a few options,
1. s*ck it up, make corrections and file it.
2. stop payment on the check, make corrections and file it.
3. Drag that CPA to a small claim’s court. Business has a hard time winning at a small claim’s court. They usually root for “small consumers”.
If I were her, I would do 2 & 3. But that’s me since I don’t like Big people abusing small people.
I may vote republican the first time ever, so the right party can be left with the mess.
BC
Will you be thistling dixie tonight (-:
I’ll be gettin to go.
KL
#127,
10 minutes away in Irvington you get the same house for 150K.
I am looking at listing id # 2365175 on realtor site. It is listed at $860K.
1) Can this house become $645K (25% price reduction as per Booya bob’s formula)?
2) If yes – how much time (2,3,4?? years)?
3) JB/ KL/ other realtors – how is the demand for such higher priced houses? Will it suffer more in slowdown or less as compared to entry level 3bdr/2baths?
4) Any guesses on how low this one can go (honest opinion)?
Here is the lin k:
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=4&locallnk=yes&frm=bymap&mnbed=4&mnbath=2&mnprice=800000&mxprice=99999999&js=off&pgnum=1&fid=so&stype=&mnsqft=&mls=xmls&areaid=2141&poe=realtor&ct=Edison&st=NJ&sbint=&vtsort=&sorttype=&typ=1&x=34&y=8&sid=0855F278B12DC&snumxlid=1074827974&lnksrc=00002
KL,
How does one thistle?
#186 att,
I can visualize that house turning into this –
http://www.thesefleetingmoments.com/images/20060626163800_haunted-house.jpg
BC Bob
Did you ever get your flat screen? If you’re still looking, Circuit City, 42 inch Sharp Aquos HD LCD $1899 or $1799 if you sign up for HD cable service through Circuit City. No interest for 3 years. – Just FYI.
There is not much talk about the Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton (Lehigh Valley) problem. Soo many people from NJ & NYC moved here during the last 5 years it created a real estate bubble that is collapsing here. It’s really funny to think about it. People driving 2-4 hours a day to sleep somewhere. The problem is they overpaid by about 100%. Does anyone remember the “WHY RENT” campaign that happened in the Poconos area in the late 80’s & 90’s? The same thing happened to that area, prices went up like crazy and then went down to pre-boom prices. That’s happening all around the Lehigh Valley, the local paper (morning call) doesn’t want to print anything concerning this, but it’s well known to anyone with eyes. I was curious since this is the NJ REAL ESTATE forum if anyone had thoughts on this? Us locals laughed when we watched the last 5 years of yellow license plates buying cookie cutter homes (built like crap, extrememly fast). People paying 300k for a new home that you could have paid 150k for 3 years earlier. Now that prices are dropping and inventory of homes are at record levels(summer isn’t even here yet…lol) this summer should be the beginning of the end for our local bubble
Lehigh Valley, I disagree with your post. I live in the Valley and there’s no “why rent” campaign going on here.
Although the high end (houses over 200k) have slowed, the main difference between northern NJ and the Lehigh Valley is that there’s greater price diversity, lower housing prices and way lower real estate taxes. Those factors will keep the folks coming here from NJ, NY and Philly.
As far as commuting is concerned, have you ever been stuck on the Garden State Parkway at rush hour? Hell, you can live 15 miles from the job in NJ and still take an hour to get there. My commute to NJ is 1.25 hour flat. One does not have to drive 4 hours daily. I’ve never done that.
Housing prices, even if they collapse in NJ will remain at a premium vs the valley. Moreover, NJ real estate taxes are a major deterent and are at least twice what we’re paying over here.
The bottom line is that folks will continue to flee from NJ. The main problem with the Lehigh Valley is the lack of local high paying jobs and hopefully, some major employers can be attracted to the area.
njrefugee
The “Why Rent” campaign was on for years here in the NYC area. I remember the commercials clearly- families that moved from this area to PA and were so happy, blah blah blah, buy a huge house for a fraction of what it would cost in NY, blah blah. I believe there was a phone number 800-WHY-RENT to get info on communities being built.
I thought that was circa 1987 or so.
jb
192
James, that had to be later then 1987. In 1987 I wouldn’t have paid attention to anything like that as I was a sophomore in high school. I want to say if it started in the late 80’s it had to run into the late 90’s at least. I could be wrong though.
Raintree homes?
http://www.citizen.org/litigation/briefs/IntFreeSpch/articles.cfm?ID=6207
David (180)-
Did you mean how’s the housing market near Green Brook?
Same as a lot of other high-priced areas. Lots of inventory, slow sales velocity. 1 MIL to about 2.5 MIL is a no-man’s land these days. Even Otteau will tell you that.
And, Green Brook has Watchung Hills HS to deal with. Not exactly stellar, when compared to other affluent areas nearby.
Oh this is great..
http://www.1800whyrent.net/
Grim (196)-
More spew on the computer screen! Too funny…
“Will you be thistling dixie tonight”
KL,
No. Figured the line would be reminiscent of 2004/2005, pre-constuction condo sales. Beer battered fish and chips at home.
lostinny [191],
No. I have been spending too much time on this blog. Thanks for the info. I may look at that. Now, if I don’t pay off within the 3 year period and get hit with 24% retroactive to day 1, can I fight it? I can always argue that I did not understand what I signed. Sounds reasonable, right?
http://www.1800whyrent.net/pressrelease.html
JB [196],
Classic.
One of these days, I will learn how to type.
James. Yes I’m guessing that’s the same company that I remember. I guess those people are having a ball (or 2) messing with them.
Bob, we bit the bullet and did it. I cannot believe I am saying that. I am now truly ghetto fabulous.
I’m sure you can say you didn’t understand. Someone will just come and bail you out. I’ll even give you some pluckings from my money tree.
Does anyone know anything about Governor’s Pointe in North Brunswick? Good bad whatever?
thanks IDavid. I just told her your suggestions and she said she will stop payment and pay him less when he can learn how to read nj tax law and fill out a proper return for her…what a guy!! He supposedly had the gall to tell her, its always better to use a CPA, instead of software, “you get what you pay for” !! What a hoot!
Have a great weekend!
Hi,
I was looking for the Excel files that you include with the monthly lowball. I am looking more specifically for the Morris county sales data for the period 1/01/2006 – 9/01/2006. I have been looking in Morris couunty at the towns, Madison, Chatham Boro, Chatham Township, Florham Park, and Harding Twp.. Any assistance would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks,
Theresa
Not housing related at all, but interesting reading. Any photographers here?
http://www.robgalbraith.com/bins/multi_page.asp?cid=7-6463-7191
JB
I got my first digital in 2001 fuji 2mp took a picture of my 2 sons that I was able to blow up to 16×20 absolutely georgous pic. Very heavy camera, have had 3 since- had a cannon my husband bought for me I traded it for another fuji. They keep putting more pixels but their cheaply made. Have not tried a digital slr, I am not as good with the camera as I am with the editing later I like to use auto so it has to have a good pic with that. I have 5 photo editing programs, I do amazing things with my pictures I love effects.
Rich in NNJ
Thistle a fish & chip store. I knew BC BOB would know. He also knew how hard it would be to get. I gave up and got potatoe and egg sandwiches.
BC,
I used to make the fish myself, my family loved it, I used to get a boxed beer batter mix, don’t remember the name but I know it when I see it.
JB
Love that article.
I’m really impressed by the stuff I see in the high dynamic range world (HDR).
Here’s a sampling:
http://www.cambridgeincolour.com/cambridge-gallery.htm
#203 lostinny,
Tons of 2 bed condos on sale in Governors Pointe. They were going in the 290K range a year back, and now for around $245K.
A fair amount of vandalism going on around that area due to the thugs from the New Brunswick area hanging around. Cops don’t care investigating since its so frequent.
Quite a few folks work in the city and stay in the complex since its a walk to Rte 1 where the express bus stops.
As a formerly burned out real estate broker (unsuccessful, twice), I have recently retired from a career in computer-related sales and management, and newspaper circulation (translated to delivery driver). The delivery driver (Teamster) position provides me a small pension, and I also collect a small Social Security check each month, as well. Now, at age 68, I recently have been relicensed as a realty broker in Michigan.
I am rusty — for example, the HUD-1 form is new to me. I hope to do sales, property management, mortgages, foreclosure sales, preforeclosure sales and short sales, all as a one-man show.
I am interested in exploring whether I also should become a mortgage broker in Michigan, but I have been unsuccessful in getting a response from anyone as to the education, testing and licensing requirements. I have taken loan officer training, but I would like to be able to do the “whole enchilada” of real estate and mortgage, again as a one man show.
The State of Michigan highly regulates real estate brokers and agents. Michigan recently went to the practice of applying a fee to the broker (as you know, the business entity is the broker, not a person), and an additional fee for the associate broker. Thus, the state collects two fees from me for my Unicorn Real Estate LLC.
There does not seem to be similar licensing rules and regulations pertaining to the mortgage business in Michigan. It seems I can be a loan officer without any education, testing or licensing. Nobody responds to my requests for information relative to becoming a mortgage broker. The Michigan Mortgage Brokers Association has not responded to my repeated e-mails.
Can you refer me to a person or agency that can help me determine the requirements, so that I can then determine whether it is in my best interest to become a mortgage broker?
I just wish we get a lesser of two evils.
Please NO Religious fanatics and none of those Born Again Christians. and No one close to Cheney.
Now, if all those folks from Red States can read and write… and stop marrying their siblings and cousins.. hahahha
I could go for Jimmy B as a write-in. :)
You do realize that YOU’RE a religious fanatic too, right? The religion you preach (at every opportunity and in the most repetitive condescending manner) is your political opinions. And guess what, your post makes you sound as ignorant as those people you feel and act so superior to.
Ok, so you’re a liberal. YES WE GET IT, ALREADY.
Sheesh.
>>It seems that anything in Millburn under 1MM that’s in good condition goes pretty quickly.
that’s about what i’ve heard. sorry folks but the market isn’t going to come back to you if you want to get into the top communities. keep raging against the machine though for all the good it will do you.
#190
No matter how you slice and dice it, the LV is still a long distance for a commute. I’ve done it, I know people who do it (from Bethlehem to Linden…)…people brag about their 3000sq ft houses that are cheaper, but you’re physically worn out commuting those distances. No getting around it.
I understand your biased to it, but please be fair.
sorry folks but the market isn’t going to come back to you if you want to get into the top communities.
Richard,
What did prices do in these communities from 1989 to 1996? Please, respond with figures only.
jb
Hat tip to Ben Jones for this one. Just interested in the comment by Seiders, Chief Economist for the NAHB.
Building activity slows locally, but moderate-priced homes still moving
Snow and frigid weather kept buyers in some parts of the country indoors last month. But builders are growing more pessimistic about the spring selling season, the National Association of Home Builders says.
One reason for their grim outlook: Mortgage lenders, shaken by the rising number of loan defaults, are making it harder for potential buyers with tarnished, or “subprime,” credit to qualify.
The downward sales trend “is pretty serious stuff,” David Seiders, chief economist for the home builders association, said in an interview Monday.
Seiders said he was surprised by the fall in sales and by a downward revision in January’s sales numbers. “The weakening pattern (in new-home sales) is convincing, meaning it’s not special factors like the weather; it’s something fundamental,” he said.
One in three builders said tighter loan standards already have hurt sales this year, a NAHB survey this month showed. (Half those builders said stricter rules had eroded sales by up to 10 percent.) When the NAHB questioned a sample of large builders, Seiders said, it found “unambiguous signals that this is something serious.”
Sales of new homes, which fell 21 percent last year, could take another pounding this year.
“I’ve been sitting here with a pencil and eraser working on our forecast,” Seiders said. “I started out two weeks ago expecting about a 2 percent decline for new-home sales this year. Now, I’ve got them down 8 percent, and I’m not sure that’s enough” of a cut.
This may just take the cake for weirdest story this weekend.
Home Ransacked After Phony Craig’s List Ad
An ad placed on Craig’s List is being blamed for the ransacking of a Tacoma woman’s home.
Vandals ripped apart the house after an ad posted on the internet bulletin board invited people to take anything they wanted from inside.
Now police and the home’s owner are trying to find out who posted the ad, and why.
“It hurts. I was attached to this home because it used to be my mom’s,” says Laurie Raye.
A phone caller alerted Raye to the destruction.
She soon walked through her garbage strewn front yard to find her house dismantled.
From the light fixtures to the hot water heater everything is gone…including the kitchen sink.
>>What did prices do in these communities from 1989 to 1996? Please, respond with figures only.
why because figures and historical ratios have meant so much the last near decade? spare me the by the book approach. life doesn’t run on an assembly line.
JB,
I don’t think your donation link is working?
I want to make a 20e6 donation, and change the name of this web site to “The SAS RE Report”.
Seriously, I would like to make a donation, but the link wasn’t working. Not sure if there is a problem on my end.
SAS
I just tried it, worked OK from here. It’s a secure site (HTTPS), so maybe that has something to do with it. Does anything come up at all?
jb
JB,
I prefer writing a check. Can I just mail a check to your home?
#182,
Afe,
have your friend contact the NJ Division of Consumer Affairs – they issue the license for CPAs. On their website you should be able to do a search for the CPA’s name and get his license number. There should be info on the website as to how to file a complaint.
Also, check the following website http://www.njscpa.org. I believe they also provide advice how to handle a non-reputable CPA. And, finally, as a matter of ethics, once a CPA contracts with an individual to prepare their tax returns, they cannot withhold the returns if the individual does not submit payment for them. Your friend should not have been pressured to pay him.
#182
Here’s the link for the cpa complaint form. You may have to cut and paste into your browser
http://www.nj.gov/lps/ca/complaint/acctcom.pdf
BLB,
separation of church and state.. if you are familiar with the First Amendment.. and indirect reference from our Constitution..
and if you are really interested in, a letter by Thomas Jefferson to Danbury Baptists group..
id,
Sure, do you have it?
jb
#216
I wasn’t thinking.. but it gives me an idea.. now, I have JB’s home address.. and steal that toy as to why JB is known as Grim… hahahhaa.. just kidding.
JB,
Don’t you have a brother named *****? and he was born in **, right?
Yessir.
JB,
Good. I hate it when I use online payment sytem and those companies and CC companies take percentage here and there – it’s a pure legal robbery.
Clot,
You wouldn’t happen to have a good construction loan contact, would you?
jb
JB,
I used Sun National bank, a Jersey bank, to refinance my commercial building. I think they do construction loans and the folks were mighty nice.
JB,
I didn’t realize that there was a donation link. It’s about time.
I’m in David’s camp, check or cash. I will email you.
BC Bob,
You will Email check or cash?????
how do you do that? Are you preparing for Vegas act now? :)
Can a realtor please provide inventory stats for Chatham Boro, yoy. Very much appreciated.
poser,
Thanks for your input. Let us see where this all leads. Hopefully the bank is able to stop payment first (they told her as long as it is not cashed in the next 24 hours). Either way, a complaint is on its way. But this extra info on where to file complaints is excellent.
Although the post was un-related to real estate, it did have me thinking…my friend could have used tax software for a fraction of the cost…and the CPA is providing a “service” similar to what we ask Real estate agents to provide…
As clot and others have pointed out, the agent “fee” is a price we pay for having someone else do all those things involved in the transaction that someone may not have the expertise to do or the time to do. This CPA obviously does not have the expertise (despite his claim that he has done 20 years of taxes) nor is he saving her any time.
Sorry for the rant…this kind of thing is so upsetting when as IDavid would say…the little guy gets hurts. LOL
As they say, Caveat emptor!
afe
Chatham Boro
Active Listings
Jan 2006 – 40 (Med: $810,000)
Jan 2007 – 56 (Med: $735,289)
Feb 2006 – 49 (Med: $879,000)
Feb 2007 – 61 (Med: $649,000)
March 2006 – 63 (Med: $749,900)
March 2007 – 60 (Med: $679,000)
Sold Listings
March 2006 – 15 Med: $889,000 DOM: 50
March 2007 – 8 Med: $600,000 DOM: 63
BC Bob,
what’s the point spread for the final game? and is it Monday night?
Rich in NJ or JB,
What’s the history on this one? It’s NJMLS.
thanks.
2639677
lostinny Says:
April 6th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
njrefugee
The “Why Rent” campaign was on for years here in the NYC area. I remember the commercials clearly- families that moved from this area to PA and were so happy, blah blah blah, buy a huge house for a fraction of what it would cost in NY, blah blah. I believe there was a phone number 800-WHY-RENT to get info on communities being built.
Those “why rent” commercials were not for my area, which is the Lehigh Valley. They were for an area 40 miles north of me–the Poconos. So I stand by my original statement that there have been no “why rent” campaigns for the Lehigh Valley.
I do agree that folks got ripped off, but that’s no different than what’s occurred in NNJ with home prices and taxes.
Here are two more. also, can you provide the address? thanks. They are both NJMLS.
2712474
2708336
re: Why Rent in PA.
There was a long NYTimes article about these folks a couple of years ago. Houses were sold on the promise of a new train connection to NYC, which, of course, never materialized. Plus, as mortgage rates went down and the owners tried to refinance, they couldn’t, since the houses were constructed so cheaply they were only worth about 2/3 of the prices paid.
njrefugee
Thanks for clearing that up. I’m not sure the average NY’er new the difference either. And I agree that people in the entire NYC area are being ripped off. I just wish they would wake up and see it.
A question to anyone who might know the answer:
There is a school called Bergen County Academies, a public magnet school. This school has the similar college entrance record to the top boarding schools.
Where would you send your kids if you have a choice between this public school vs. top boarding schools?
#214 JB its no use trying to have a discussion with Richars, he has completely convinced himself that prices cannot and will not go down.
He will ignore all facts as presented, he will ignore all historical data etc.
What is truly amazing is he even argues that people (like myself) who lived through the last one are somehow mistaken.
He is ferocious in his opposition to tthe thought of a real estate bubble.
The only thing I can conclude is that he has recently purchased, or that if not he has used his equity in some dramatic fashion, and thus talk of a bubble cannot be tolerated.
#212 Richard, Yeah but ther is lots of inventory in Westfield, perhasp those sellers are raginmg against the machine?
JB [235],
Thank you.
OK, now lets discuss “desirable” towns. JB was kind enough to dig this up for me, Chatham Boro, NJ. Wow and ouch.
Sold Listings
March 2006 – 15 Med: $889,000 DOM: 50
March 2007 – 8 Med: $600,000 DOM: 63
There seems, at least to me, to be some misguided clatter on this site. Those who feel that the “desirable” towns will be insulated from the oncoming onslaught. IMO, moronic and simpleminded. This lunacy is not an isolated subprime issue. Remember, subprime does not define income brackets, rather fico. I have a good friend in Chatham Township, a doctor,his credit is sh*t. He’s subprime, in a $1.3 mil house. This charade is spread throught all income levels and all towns. Hell, the insanity is spread throughout the world.
I feel it is more ludicrous that a 4 bedroom in a “desirable” town sold/sells for 1-1.2 mil as compared to a 500k pos cape in a less “desirable” town. My best friend lives in Chatham Boro. He tells me that prices are coming down dramatically. He has owned there since 1995. Now, I take his word over someone who capitulated in late 2006 and is now trying to support his long position. JB’s #’s support my friends statement. Some can keep trying to convince themselves that certain towns will be spared. Has the earth shook and resulted in Chatham being less desirable than a Millburn or a Westfield? Well, just look again at post [235]and you do the math. It’s much worse than even I had imagined.
As stated many times, the entire sales process in this industry is akin to a chain. It’s only as strong as the weakest link. I actually prefer Pat’s analogy, its like a ladder. Let’s say that ladder has 15 steps. For step # 6 to sell, first #’s 1-5 must close. Well, the market has spoken and subsequently has blown out step #1 & 2, possibly # 3. How the hell does the unqualified, with the spigots turned off, you get to step # 4 with the first 3 steps suppressed?? Do you really feel that the unqualified, who represented the first couple of steps will now take a quantum leap right to step # 4? The only scenario that will enable this ladder to function, is each step, still in place must be lowered. Those “desirable” towns will keep their status and their spread over other towns, just at a much lower price level. The ladder will now have 12 steps as compared to 15. Unfortunately, this ladder will not permit you to reach as high. However, the 15 step ladder was unstable, wobbly, not functioning properly.
I agree with those whose position states that life does not run on an assembly line. Unfortunately, the assembly line was out of control in this past frenzy, akin to a hamster spinning out of control. It was running some damn fast, they s*cked everyone in, capitulation at its very best. However, this is a marathon, sprinters are falling/will fall out of the race. The turtles will cross the finish line first.
David [236],
Frozen Four final tonight, 7 PM. I don’t know the line, for some reason the Daily Rag did not have it. Clot?
JB [235],
I still can’t get over those #’s, simply incredible.
This bust will probably turn out worse than I had originally anticipated. Funny, my friends in Chatham Boro and Township have never had a realtor knock on their door with a buyer in hand. In conjunction with this, it appears as if the WS bonus $ has not ventured into Chatham. I don’t understand this, top town along the NJ Transit line, Midtown direct. Can anybody/somebody please explain what is wrong with Chatham?
2708336
ACT 1453 JOHN ST $379,000 7/27/2004
ACT* 1453 JOHN ST $379,000 9/11/2004
ARR 1453 JOHN ST $379,000 10/29/2004
ACT* 1453 JOHN ST $379,000 11/19/2004
ARR 1453 JOHN ST $379,000 12/11/2004
ACT* 1453 JOHN ST $379,000 1/10/2005
U/C 1453 JOHN ST $379,000 1/25/2005
SLD 1453 JOHN ST $365,000 8/5/2005
ACT 1453 JOHN ST $415,000 9/27/2005
EXT 1453 JOHN ST $415,000 9/27/2005
EXT 1453 JOHN ST $415,000 2/21/2006
W-C 1453 JOHN ST $415,000 2/26/2006
EXP 1453 JOHN ST $415,000 3/27/2006
ACT 1453 JOHN ST $425,000 8/1/2006 (new agent & broker)
W-T 1453 JOHN ST $425,000 12/13/2006
EXP 1453 JOHN ST $425,000 1/1/2007
ACT 1453 JOHN ST $429,000 3/4/2007 (same agent & broker)
—————–
2712474
ACT 1491 JOHN ST $279,000 8/8/2002
ACT* 1491 JOHN ST $279,000 8/27/2002
U/C 1491 JOHN ST $279,000 9/9/2002
SLD 1491 JOHN ST $275,000 12/27/2002
ACT 1491 JOHN ST $439,000 7/19/2005
ACT* 1491 JOHN ST $439,000 8/4/2005
ARR 1491 JOHN ST $439,000 8/12/2005
ACT* 1491 JOHN ST $439,000 9/6/2005
ARR 1491 JOHN ST $439,000 10/6/2005
W-U 1491 JOHN ST $439,000 12/20/2005
ACT 1491 JOHN ST $429,900 1/20/2006
ACT* 1491 JOHN ST $429,900 2/27/2006
U/C 1491 JOHN ST $429,900 4/14/2006
SLD 1491 JOHN ST $415,000 5/16/2006
ACT 1491 JOHN ST $449,000 3/31/2007
——————–
2639677 (What, now that it’s painted white you’re interested?!)
ACT 121 SCHRAALENBURGH RD $399,000.00 10/9/2006
PCH 121 SCHRAALENBURGH RD $359,000.00 11/21/2006
PCH 121 SCHRAALENBURGH RD $200,000.00 1/15/2007
PCH 121 SCHRAALENBURGH RD $100,000.00 2/12/2007
VACANT.LAND SOLD AS IS. CONTAMINATED. BUYER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEAN-UP. CORNER PROPERTY. FORMERLY GETTY GAS STATION. CASH DEAL ONLY.
With the reservior so close I’m sure it’s going to be an expensive clean-up
BBB,
what did I tell you about D*ck?
Now go to your room and repeat after me.
“I will not play with D*ck any more”
and write that down on a paper 69 times.
Rich,
Thanks for the info.
About that corner property, a good place to put up a Dunken Donuts.
I wonder how much it would cost to clean up the environmental disaster.
I’ve been lurking on this site for quite a while and I have noticed the turn-around Richard has done.
With the way he spews Realtor(tm) rhetoric, reframes the current reality, and now seems to be playing revisionist history with the last crash, I wonder if it’s not that he’s trying to justify his long position, but rather proselytizing to *protect* the value of his new purchase.
The Lehigh Valley is a bubble market. The only reason you don’t want to assume that is because you “OVERPAID”. Our prices rose up 100% in 5 years, while NJ & NYC commuters were part of that reason, they are not all of it. Our population didn’t rise that much. Our situation is worse than most other markets. You say the prices won’t drop around here, let me clue you in on something. In the early 90’s when 78 opened up prices jumped almost 80% in 2 years for homes. Those prices nosedived and never recovered until 2000. You didn’t live around here and realtors aren’t going to tell you that huh? Add your 1 1/2 hour commute each way and that’s 3 hours in my math. With any sort of traffic or problem now your into 3-5 hours. It takes me 20 minutes. Our prices have already dropped some 20% this year alone and that’s still not selling them. Prime example: Emmaus, PA ROW HOMES. They were selling for 80k in 2001, 2005-185k, 2006-165k, 2007-145k (no offers). Check out our MLS and look on Chestnut street or these ones are from Minor Street. There are still people holding onto the last thread here and holding out for one more sucker from NJ & NYC, that’s not happening it seems. This summers inventory of homes in the lehigh valley will be at the highest levels EVER! We have not even come close to the crash here, it’s going to be terrible but to be honest, I don’t care much about commuters who drove up my taxes and then get foreclosed on. I watched your older relatives do the same thing about 10 years ago. Thanks for making some of my relatives some easy money in the meantime!!!
While on the subject of Chatham
MLS ID#: 2361517
Could someone look up the purchse history and address?
Sincere thanks
Rich in NNJ #248…
Re 1453 John St.
What did the buyer do to justify a 10% price increase between 8/05 and 9/05???
SLD 1453 JOHN ST $365,000 8/5/2005
ACT 1453 JOHN ST $415,000 9/27/2005
Did they slap one of those Home Depot kitchens together?? New toilet and sink??
Anything more than that would have taken too long. Heck, you can hardly paint the POS in those few weeks!!
att,
That house in Edison – if you look at the panoramic, it’s surrounded by older ranch houses. It’s one of those houses that’s going to be at odds with the surrounding neighborhood.
It was probably a teardown and rebuild, so maybe someone can get you the street address and the previous sale of the older house. That will give you a baseline number – what the developer paid for the site.
Meanwhile, for $625K, here’s a house in the Estates section of Colonia that just got reduced pretty substantially. I think the OLP was over $700K.
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=2&locallnk=yes&frm=bymap&mnbed=0&mnbath=0&mnprice=600000&mxprice=99999999&js=off&pgnum=1&fid=so&stype=&mnsqft=&mls=xmls&areaid=25543&poe=realtor&ct=Colonia&st=NJ&sbint=&vtsort=&sorttype=&typ=1&x=35&y=12&sid=0856E6647D30C&snumxlid=1071016763&lnksrc=00006
Re: #250, investorDavid
Localized soil contamination would be the best case scenario, because then all you have to do is take soil samples and excavate the contaminated soil, dispose of it as hazardous waste, backfill with clean soil and then cap it properly.
Worst case scenario is the addition of groundwater contamination, since the contaminants can migrate offsite (and you’d also be responsible for cleaning up this as well). You’d have to coordinate a real dog and pony show with the NJDEP.
The price tag would probably start in the several hundred thousands and could easily run into the millions. I can ask a friend of mine who is still in the business to get more accurate details if anyone else here is really interested.
att,
That house in Edison – there are a lot of new houses like that in Edison and in a much wider area, including Colonia. Maybe you should look in the wider area.
PS, Do you know that Edison is going through a re-assessment of property taxes this year?
fanshawe,
Yes, please. I have been eyeing on that property for a very long time. Does one get a DEP estimate before you make an offer? or is the offer contigent upon DEP estimate?
fanshawe[251],
Very perceptive. Don’t just lurk, continue to type.
investorDavid,
You’d have to do your own due diligence to understand the extent and nature of the contamination fully, which would lead to being able to get remediation estimates from environment contractors/consultants.
The DEP would be only involved in the sense that they would need to approve the remediation plan and are the ones who decides when the cleanup is actually “done”. Unless you are very familiar with environmental regulations, you’re probably better off hiring an attorney who practices environmental law to help you with the purchase and be your liaison with the DEP.
Lehigh Valley,
You strike me as one of these people who are resentful of all the newcomers that are coming to the valley. Let me clue you into something–the newcomers will continue to come unabated and ultimately we’re going to change how you guys have been doing things. Get used to it.
I didn’t overpay. I boought my brand new home six years ago right before they finished the route 33 corridor down to 78, so my home has nearly doubled in value. I know you may not like that, but I’ve done well with a few real estate purchases here.
You must not have read the Morning Call this week. The Lehigh Valley ranks as one of the highest growth areas in the northeast per a front page article. The only places in the northeast that added more people than we did are NYC, Philly and Boston. As far as PA is concerned, our area is the fastest growing area in the entire state. That growth will continue whether you “locals” want it or not. You guys want to continue to look in the rear view mirror.
My commute is just fine at 1.25 hours each way. I enjoy driving and fortunately I don’t have to do it every day. I did do it everyday for awhile and it still wasn’t a problem for me. Perhaps for some folks it’s a problem.
Like I said earlier, things have slowed at price points above 250K, but below 250K, things are still moving.
I bet you were one of the people against the casino coming in as many of you “locals” don’t want anything to change. Get used to the idea that folks from NJ, NYC and Philly will continue to come to the valley and they will demand the same sorts of services that they had elsewhere. That’s the reason that the various high-end malls are going up and etc. This is good for the valley, so stop with your sour grapes.
Lehigh Valley Says:
April 7th, 2007 at 11:39 am
The Lehigh Valley is a bubble market. The only reason you don’t want to assume that is because you “OVERPAID”. Our prices rose up 100% in 5 years, while NJ & NYC commuters were part of that reason, they are not all of it. Our population didn’t rise that much. Our situation is worse than most other markets. You say the prices won’t drop around here, let me clue you in on something. In the early 90’s when 78 opened up prices jumped almost 80% in 2 years for homes. Those prices nosedived and never recovered until 2000. You didn’t live around here and realtors aren’t going to tell you that huh? Add your 1 1/2 hour commute each way and that’s 3 hours in my math. With any sort of traffic or problem now your into 3-5 hours. It takes me 20 minutes. Our prices have already dropped some 20% this year alone and that’s still not selling them. Prime example: Emmaus, PA ROW HOMES. They were selling for 80k in 2001, 2005-185k, 2006-165k, 2007-145k (no offers). Check out our MLS and look on Chestnut street or these ones are from Minor Street. There are still people holding onto the last thread here and holding out for one more sucker from NJ & NYC, that’s not happening it seems. This summers inventory of homes in the lehigh valley will be at the highest levels EVER! We have not even come close to the crash here, it’s going to be terrible but to be honest, I don’t care much about commuters who drove up my taxes and then get foreclosed on. I watched your older relatives do the same thing about 10 years ago. Thanks for making some of my relatives some easy money in the meantime!!!
Is Lehigh valley the Allentown, Bethelehem and Easton area?
scribe (#257).
Thanks for the info. I did not know that Edison was going through tax re-assessment.
How much do the taxes generally increase after a re-assessment? (5%, 10%)??
Edison (at least north part) has much better schools than woodbridge. If I buy in woodbridge, then in few years when my kids have to start going to school – I will be forced to sell. Dont want to go through the buy/sell process again and again. I am not sure about school quality in Colnia, but I’m assuming it would be similar to rest of woodbridge.
fanshawe,
Exactly. Which is why I ignore Richard. It’s kinda sad…
Fiddy,
No improvements or upgrades were listed.
iD,
Damn, Dunkin Donuts at that local would be a great idea.
But if the property is that low I think there is more to it than the clean-up (unless it’s REALLY expensive). Check with the town for other possible restrictions on the properities use.
Good point scribe.
Because I see similar house also for 980K in Edison (different st though) and was wondering why that particular one was 860K. So the reason is if a house is a teardown/rebuilt and surrounded by older houses, it would sell at a discount to same house on different st. but surrounded by similar houses.
Question – if an old house was torn down and a new one was built, how much discount the developer might be willing to give?
For e.g. I see a teardown/rebuilt house for 860K . Will the developer be ready to part with it for 750K in today’s market??
The link is here:
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=4&locallnk=yes&frm=bymap&mnbed=4&mnbath=2&mnprice=800000&mxprice=99999999&js=off&pgnum=1&fid=so&stype=&mnsqft=&mls=xmls&areaid=2141&poe=realtor&ct=Edison&st=NJ&sbint=&vtsort=&sorttype=&typ=1&x=34&y=8&sid=0855F278B12DC&snumxlid=1074827974&lnksrc=00002
Rich,
The town wants a residential house built. The previous guy was planning to build a small office building but couldn’t get it.
According to the listing agent, he said, between $80K-$500K for clean-up. So I am assuming $600K-$1M for a clean-up.
I feel for the guy who bought it at $399K.
can you give the mls details on 2637150?
nnj guy,
ACT 122 DEMAREST LN $799,900 3/20/2006
W-U 122 DEMAREST LN $799,900 6/2/2006
ACT 122 DEMAREST LN $769,000 6/2/2006 (same agent & broker)
PCH 122 DEMAREST LN $749,000 7/5/2006
PCH 122 DEMAREST LN $725,000 8/20/2006
EXP 122 DEMAREST LN $725,000 9/21/2006
ACT 122 DEMAREST LN $699,900 9/21/2006
PCH 122 DEMAREST LN $679,900 10/16/2006
W-C 122 DEMAREST LN $679,900 12/2/2006
EXP 122 DEMAREST LN $679,900 3/22/2007
No longer an active listing
#249 David: But Dad he started it WAHHHHHHHHHH !!!!
Grim (229)-
Yeah, I can give you a good constrution-to-close loan guy. Drop me an e-mail on Monday.
I am a daily lurker and and am trying sooo hard to believe prices are on there way down.
Im interested in New Prov, Summit, Berkeley Heights area (especially BH). Well I was very interested in a house approx. 2 months ago that was a 4 bedroom in BH. It listed for 819,000 which I thought would maybe get mid $700,000. Well, of couse there was a bidding war!!!! I thought those days were over….so because of this decided to back out of making an offer. the house was on the market maybe a week and yes was in great condition.
Well anyway it sold for a WHOPPING $901,000!!! Yes you heard me $82,000 ABOVE the asking price.
It was MLS#2369662!!!
UGGGHHH. I was thoroughly disgusted…….
IM TRYING TO BE PATIENT!!!!!
What do you all think?
BC (229)-
No action on college hockey…not even World Sports Exchange on the internet.
Speaking of the Pocono’s. The NYT’s had article about a year ago, on all the former NY/NJ people who had moved there, and it discussed the brutal commute to NYC, as well as all the forclosures.
In addition they also discussed how much of the “urban problems” followed the new residents.
Teh article discussed how some residents there are now refering to the Pocono’s as “The Ghetto In The Woods”.
Peace Now (240)-
The developers’ promise of a train to the Poconos is as old as the cold fusion hoax.
The Poconos are also notorious as the Ground Zero for FHA mortgage fraud.
investorDavid Says:
April 7th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Is Lehigh valley the Allentown, Bethelehem and Easton area?
Yes, plus parts of Warren County, NJ
#272 Jersey Gal: you just have to shake your head, but I do think you would be crazy to throw in the towel and buy at this point.
I assume the listing closed did it not? Even if it has. Try to understand that there will still be people out ther doing crazy things, even as the market declines.
There are still some out there who don’t have a clue,a nd still believe all is well. Grant it they are slowing the decline process, but will not stop it.
#275 When I was a kid in 1980, my older cousin and husband moved to the Pocono’s (Mc Michaels), on the promise of a train to NYC coming in. He did the NYC comute by bus for 11 years.
It was brand new construction when they purchased. A couple of years after, they did a huge addition of the back.
To make a long story short they sold it 15 years later, for less then they paid for it, even with the addition. They moved around the country after that for some years, and ended up in Annandale 2 years ago.
BBB
I have to admit i do get weak sometimes and want to buy now….but than people like you pull me back to reality and realize this CANNOT go on forever!!!!
Also when i look at my monthly interest i am receiving on my savings/CD’s etc!!!
Have to admit though I am anxious but will hold out………..Thanks for you input.
ME!!
BBB
Yes by the way the house did close sometime last week. I have to admit I did drive by it when they were moving in just to see the “Fools” and also I was envious because i did really like the house.
However, i will not envy them in a couple of years when the house is worth $700,000….then I will have to truly laugh at them!!
#279 Jesey Gal: Believe me I understand, our patience will be rewarded.
Fanshawe (251)-
Don’t throw Reechard into my camp (Realtors). I don’t claim him. I generally attempt to reinforce my arguments with something called facts.
I think Reech belongs to a third camp: equity strippers.
People who rage on the fringes of any market tend to do so out of self-interest or abject ignorance. I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess that Reech is not ignorant, as there is at least some cohesion to his writing (content-unsubstantiated as it is, at least it doesn’t read like the Unabomber’s manifesto).
More likely, he bought into a “top-tier” area with the belief that it would be “insulated” vs. the recent unpleasantness. Perhaps he’s now also cash-out-2nded or HELOC’d his equity…leaving him precariously-close to the wrong end of upside-down.
That’s a helluva place to be. If I were there, I might be dancing as fast as I could too.
And Reech…if this ain’t the story, please give us the real one. And, this time around, toss in some facts.
Can anyone pull an address on
MLS ID#: 2393731 for me?
Thanks.
jerseygirl (272)-
Go back to the plankton and the property ladder for further study. The “top-tier” towns will get hit. They may get hit last, and they may not take as big a dive as condoshacks in Lower Superfundville, but they will be hit.
Clotpoll, #275, #284:
Sorry, I didn’t mean to throw you under the Richard bus. I was referring more to the NAR-esque platitudes that Richard constantly quotes.
Regarding plankton and top-tier towns, I hope you’re right. I am in the plankton group and while I wouldn’t mind living in a top-tier town, I’m just more looking for a house in my price range where I wouldn’t feel completely ripped off. Luckily, I have some flexibility with my time horizon.
Lower Superfundville, LOL.
What the heck is “top-tier” town?
I have a friend living in Wayne and he thinks it’s a top tier town. A friend living in Wyckoff laughs at Wayne. Then another friend at Franklin Lake laughs at Wyckoff.
In addition, people living around Closter, Demarest, Creskill, Tenafly laughs at Dumont, Bergenfield, Westwood, Washington Township, etc. And People living at Alpine laughs at everyone else.
It’s all subjective.
Oh..and if you actually live in Alpine, you get laughed at by Alpine folks who doesn’t actually live there. It has to be one of your many mansions not to get laughed at.
And People living at Alpine laughs at everyone else.
I guess than that those in Rockleigh don’t even know the other towns exist?
Kids from Rockleigh go to Northvale school system, right? It’s such a tiny town that if you blink, you passed it to Rockland. :)
And they do have some nice houses. :)
Rich in NNJ,
did you know that the town of Rockleigh allows 1 horse per 2 acres of land? :)
clotpoll
where can i read up on the plankton theory (i think thats what its called) Need a refresher.
Me
Anyway, the point is.. what the heck of top-tier town?
It’s all too subjective and let’s ban the word, top-tier town.
“It’s all too subjective and let’s ban the word, top-tier town.”
David,
I agree. Let’s also add downtrodden to that banned list
By the way, A-Rod, GS in the bottom of the 9th, with 2 outs.
Clot,
I already strapped my helmet on, can’t wait.
Rather then bad the word, hence forth I shall deem any town I reside in as a top-tier town.
Bob,
sure, let’s add downtrodden along with that pale yellow screeching chicken?. hahahha..
jerseygirl,
Try Monmouth County, for 800K you’ll 2 houses but the same commute as from New Prov, Summit or Berkeley Heights. A nice 4 bedroom with a pool will cost you 400K without a bidding war.
Lehigh Valley,
I hope you have realized that Merill Lynch has opened a huge office complex in Hopwell, NJ, which resulted in a large influx of high paid jobs to that area. They’re transferring few thousand more people to that location.
I would not be so pessimistic.
2361517
501 SHUNPIKE RD
2393731
848 W. NORTH AVE
Talked to a few builders today. Construction loans are currently averaging 13-15%, ruled with an iron fist. Was told that anyone building spec right now was absolutely out of their mind.
jb
Rather then ban the word, hence forth I shall deem any town I reside in as a top-tier town.
Damn, I can’t type today!
Good to see a lot of posts on the Lehigh Valley this weekend. The wife and I have considered moving out there but the extreme distance has deterred us so far.
Frank #298, your post on Hopewell confused me. That’s near Princeton, isn’t it? That’s still a long commute from the LV. Or am I missing something, is there another Hopewell?
Thanks everyone!
Lower Superfundville
Love it
#299 thanks jb
syncmaster Says:
April 7th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
Good to see a lot of posts on the Lehigh Valley this weekend. The wife and I have considered moving out there but the extreme distance has deterred us so far.
I guess it gets down to a matter of preference for most people who move out this way. I don’t mind the commute and would rather deal with that than the extreme home prices, real estate taxes and auto insurance in NJ. I lived in NNJ for nearly 20 years before I just said the hell with it and moved here. For the most part, the move has been pretty positive for my family and I. The way I see it, a commute from here to NJ is no more extreme than a commute from Long Island into NYC and people do that everyday.
The extreme cost of living in NNJ has forced a situation where people are willing to live here and commute to higher paying jobs elsewhere. As that trend continues, an infrastructure will ultimately be built to accomodate it. There are already buses going from this area daily into NYC via a park & ride in Bethlehem township. Rail service is just a matter of time if the trend continues.
Locally, there’s a bit of resentment of relocated New Jerseyans, Philadephians and New Yorkers as evidenced by Lehigh Valley’s comments. Life long residents think that we’ve run up their property taxes and home values in the same manner as New Yorkers have done in NNJ. That’s probably true, but the area was just coming out of a housing recession when I moved here six years ago and prices were extremely cheap then. When the wife and I were looking, we saw so many new houses in the 250K price range that our heads were spinning. We had our pick out here, while folks were fighting and bidding against one another in NJ. That all changed with the opening of route 33 which started the influx from NJ. The migration continues in earnest and will likely not slow anytime soon.
To a certain extent, I find myself in league with Lehigh Valley in that I believe this area is a well kept secret and a part of me wishes that the influx slows, otherwise the valley will turn into what we were trying to get away from.
There are a lot of nice areas here. Of the three urban cities, Bethlehem is head and shoulders over Easton and Allentown.
When the wife and I were looking, we saw so many new houses in the 250K price range that our heads were spinning.
My wife and I made a trip out to a new Pulte development in Lower Macungie (Coldwater something) last year, not seriously, but mostly out of curiosity. I have lots of colleagues who have moved out there in the last few years so I wanted to see what all the fuss was about.
Nice area, quiet, clean. Way nicer than where I live now (I can’t type the name of the town, it triggers this sites moderation), a town at the northwestern corner of Middlesex County.
But it’s far. Especially considering that right now both my wife and my commute are below 5 miles each. Neither of us usually spends more than 20 minutes each way. That can really spoil a person.
There are a lot of nice areas here. Of the three urban cities, Bethlehem is head and shoulders over Easton and Allentown.
A RE agent I spoke with recommended the burbs southwest of Allentown. Said it’s a better school district than anywhere else. True?
metro,
Sent an email to your gmail acct.
jb
It’s April and still cold outside, what happened to the Global Warming? What all the talk out there, I hope it arrives soon, b/c I am freezing.
Frank,
No worries, the end of the world is nigh. Al Gore told me so. And after the whole “Iraq has WMD” thing, I’m extremely inclined to trust politicians.
Warming shwarming. I just saw a report the other day that global warming will cause water shortages. wtf?! The worlds is 3/4 of water. If it gets warmer, all ice will be melting, and we’ll still be short??! I’m sure they’ll be able to treat seawater by then and make it drinkable.
Jerseygirl (292)-
Here’s a link to Bill Gross’ Plankton Theory (first posited in 1980!):
http://www.branchblog.com/?p=26
“Somehow, I knew it was going to come to down to me. Even with two outs and nobody on,” Rodriguez said. “Somehow or another, it always ends up with me somewhere.”
Sync,
The best school district in the area is the Parkland school district which is west of Allentown. My kids go to the Nazareth area school district which is quite good as well.
Parkland and Macungie will add about 15-20 minutes on to the commute. You’d be far better keeping to the eastern side of the valley and go no further west than Bethlehem city. The eastern area of the valley is Northampton county and the areas to look at are Forks township, Palmer, Nazareth, Bethlehem township, and Bethlehem city. Bethlehem city and the college hill area of Easton as well as the western end of Allentown have beautiful older homes (many over 100 years old).
Again, for me I don’t find the commute bad, but I’m in a situation where I can choose when I make the drive, so I don’t do it everyday now. As I said earlier, at one point I did and drove from here to Springfield everyday. I’d leave at 8:00 and get to the office at 9:00am. Commuting anywhere near the GSP or route 80 would be a challenge, but 78 ain’t bad if one times it right. You gotta leave either at 5:30am or at 8:00am (before or after rush hour). If there’s an accident, forget about it.
I’d recommend that anyone considering the move, come out here and stay for a week or so and do the commute to see how it is before buying.
Sync (307)-
Palmer Twp (Easton suburb) is the best school district.
To be fair, I have heard good things on Parkland, and my office manager lived in Nazareth for a while and her daughter did well at the HS.
However, those school districts feel like they’re in freakin’ Pittsburgh, drive-wise.
REO & Foreclosure by Tanta at CR:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/04/foreclosure-sales-and-reo-for-ubernerds.html
If anyone wins a couple hundred million in the lottery and is feeling generous, I’d like a beautifully restored 200 year old stone Bucks County farmhouse on 10 acres.
Please.
Yikes!!
“Reverse mortgages in overdrive”
Once a last resort, loans that tap seniors’ home equity are surging – and paying for frills
http://tinyurl.com/3an8jl
SAS
lisooh…you don’t need millions.
Check these out. Missing the acreage, but cool, aren’t they?
http://www.mlsfinder.com/nj_trend/kwsouth/index.cfm?action=email_listing_detail&property_id=4903606
http://www.mlsfinder.com/nj_trend/kwsouth/index.cfm?action=email_listing_detail&property_id=4886424
Home prices are more expensive here (NNJ) than LV, however being on the road longer is a physical and psychological toll on the body…also, don’t forget the extra cost of gas, oil changes, new car, etc…(alot more you’ll fork out in transportation if you’re not fortunate to have a company car and commute)…unless your single and have noone to come home to, just not worth it IMO
unless your single and have noone to come home to, just not worth it IMO
Home Seller,
That’s a bit simplistic. It all depends on what kind of job you have, doesn’t it?
If I had a job that had me on the road most of the time with the requirement that I attend meetings in New Jersey a few times a month, living in the LV wouldn’t be such a bad idea. If, on the other hand, my job required that I actually come in to my job in Newark every day, no matter how bad the traffic and weather is, I can see how living in the LV would be an entirely different (and less attractive) proposition.
Happy Easter ! to all
I hope you will all have an enjoyable day, It will be for me as I just finished setting up the hunt. My children get a candy basket and a toy (if you can call it that) This year it is the Nintendo Wii – very hard to obtain. Anyway from the first letter by the baskets in plain view from the easter bunny which starts them on the hunt, to find all the other eggs with clues that bring them to the final prize it so much fun! I am exhausted -as it take’s me so long to set up, but the fun tommorow is worth it. And Of course the clues all have to Rhyme ! Even my 15 year old loves it.
So to all of my friends in this online community
Let me not miss this wonderful opurtunity
To wish you all a wonderful day !
To celebrate in your own special way!
KL
#324 KL – Wii is awesome for kids though probably not for gamer teens (at least with the current game set). I spent about two weeks searching on the internet, and then a bunch of hours driving around and waiting on lines to get my hands on one. First time I’ve done something like that for a toy, and was extremely annoyed at the time, but now think it was completely worth it. The litte ones work up a sweat – much better than typical consoles.
-P
The New Real Estate
Published: March 12, 2007
Author: Arthur I. Segel
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5620.html
The boom may end when interest rates rise from a falling dollar or if there is a surge of commercial overbuilding around the country. A political or terror event could bring things to a halt. Most likely, it will be something unexpected that stalls real estate. It’s anyone’s guess. But history has taught us one lesson: In the end, even real estate will revert back to a mean and return to earth just like every other asset class.
tcm Says:
April 5th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
People claim that when they go to sign papers at closing, the terms are not the same as they agreed on. For example, they thought they were getting a fixed rate at X%, but when they get the papers to sign, they are really signing for something else (much less favorable).
What are the options at that point? If the borrower refuses to sign, do they lose their deposit? Is there any way to get access to the papers to review before the closing date?
I know this post is from 2 days ago, but it’s been buggin me because I knew I had read about this ‘declination letter’ you should have. Finally dug this out – but I remember reading more about this elsewhere. Has anyone else heard of it?
Not prime time to buy
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzmort265145893mar26,0,3876849.story?coll=ny-business-print
Here’s what real-estate professionals recommend
Take a loan to another mortgage broker before signing anything, if somebody offers you a loan you don’t understand.
Don’t be afraid to get a declination letter from the lender and walk away when a bank suddenly changes the terms of the loan before closing.
From The Record:
FAA drafts plan to cut jets’ noise
(Bergen County)
The Federal Aviation Administration proposed a plan Friday to reduce noise created by commercial jets as the capacity of the nation’s busiest airspace is expanded.
Critics of the FAA’s airspace redesign have worried that it would dramatically increase the jet noise heard in towns such as Montvale, Park Ridge and Upper Saddle River, which sit below an approach path to Newark Liberty International Airport. But FAA officials said their proposed strategies, which include having jets fly higher, actually would reduce the number of people who experience noise that is reportable under FAA guidelines.
…..
The airspace redesign affects several major airports and 29 million residents in five states. North Jersey residents are impacted mostly by arrivals at Newark Liberty, officials said, although noise levels in towns close to Teterboro Airport exceed the levels found in towns affected by Newark’s flights.
The original plan would have raised noise levels in Emerson, Hillsdale, Montvale, Park Ridge, River Vale, Upper Saddle River, Westwood and Woodcliff Lake. FAA officials said noise levels in those towns would have risen by at least nine decibels, roughly the equivalent of slow-moving car traffic that is 100 feet away.
…..
The FAA will hold public meetings about the noise mitigation plan. The New Jersey meeting is scheduled for April 25 at the Sheraton Newark Airport hotel. The FAA will announce at that meeting how the noise mitigation plan would affect particular North Jersey municipalities.
More at the link above, Rich
test
The site must be taking the day off. :)
Or getting ready to drive someplace for ham dinner.
This guy wants real estate agents to share fiduciary liability at mortgage signing. I don’t know if I agree. Somebody’s got to call dibs on responsibility for the appropriate nature of a loan, but I’m thinking the re agent can’t unless the relationships are restructured.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/20070408_On_Personal_Finance___Take_the_pain_out_of_subprimes.html
Pat (331)-
The trial lawyers love holding RE agents responsible for as much as they can. It makes us easier to sue.
Up until about 18 months ago, agents in NJ were even on the hook for undisclosed and HIDDEN (like in the walls or underground) defects in homes. At least that’s been taken off the table.
If an agent originates a loan…or if the agent has had a hand in pushing a buyer toward an “in-house” mortgage company…then I can see holding that agent responsible for what happens. However, many buyers obtain financing on their own and deliberately don’t involve the agent in the process.
Pat (331)-
And, one more thing: lenders don’t copy agents on TIL and Good Faith estimates. The most we’ll see during the financing process is a synopsis of the mortgage commitment. I’ve had instances in which I’ve asked for further documentation and been turned down cold, due to privacy issues.
So agents are supposed to go to loan closings, read the loan docs “on the fly” and advise buyers against moving forward if we feel the loans are predatory? Please.
BTW, many attorneys will not allow Realtors in the room during a loan closing. And, what will happen when the buyer isn’t using an attorney in the purchase process (as is the case in South Jersey)?
Mr. Brown of the Inquirer- and his fallacious article- are sad examples of the liberal, feel-good, “save me from myself” philosophy that pervades the media. It is easy to simply suggest that a proximate third party assume responsibility for righting the wrongs of bad lending, but no one seems interested in doing the hard lifting involved in examining the process and fashioning reasonable, practical solutions.
How about this: if you’re gonna buy a house, stop watching American Idol and Ultimate Fighting, stop jamming Happy Meals down your throat…and take a community college course or do some reading at the library or on the internet?
Aaarrgh…a good, old-fashioned wake-up rant moderated on #333.
Can anyone give me history on listing# 717211 of realtor site.
Thanks.
Did anyone notice a cool change in banrate website’s loan feature.
Now when modelling a loan on it, it has a dropdown where it forces you to select a downpayment % (with options of 5% or 20% down). As recent as few months ago this was not the case.
Another evidence of changing times for loan seekers.
What is the % of potential buyers who are seeking 100% financing?
Also what is the approximate percentages of deals falling apart due to borrower getting caught up in lending standards tighening or current owners not able to sell their existing homes?
KL [324],
Thank you, and same to you.
“PROPERTY-TAX REBATESEnjoy the checks now, folks”
http://tinyurl.com/25t5gr
SAS
#331, 332
Why not? The politicians and consumer advocates are blaming everyone other than the borrower – why should RE agents be exempt from the search for a deep pocket?
Go after the lenders (the few that remain) because they made loans available to people who may otherwise not have been deemed credit-worthy. Go after investment banks because… actually not sure why except that they made money. Categorize the person actually signing documents and making decisions as the victim. Charge the bail out to the tax payers who lived within their means and remained solvent. I guess this all makes sense in bizarro world. Wait… this IS our world.
-P
grim, #339 awaiting moderation. thanks.
People are not going to keep coming, what are you smoking? I don’t resent people, I laugh more actually. I know lot’s of people and frequently near the Pocono mnt area. That area has went to crap and guess what…..more people left. The majority of people can’t take the commute. It’s when they try and leave the Poconos they find out that house is not worth anything near what they paid. Look it up it’s true, Carbon county has the highest foreclosures in the state. Guess what, the Morning Call newspapers doesn’t report on foreclosures, I wonder why? I’ll tell you, it’s because they are on the rise in Lehigh, Bucks & Northampton counties. Our area has been here for years and when 78 opened the same thing happened, people moved, prices went up and then sat stagnant for 12 years. That was in the early 90’s. A 1-2 hour commute each way is not a bedroom community, just not true. If you bought 6 years ago your good, 9 years would be better :) though. The problem is the papers and realtors are not reporting the truth. Since late 2005 our prices have been steadily declining, along with currently we have the largest number of homes ever on the market. That doesn’t include all the homes that didn’t sell and our trying to rent for 1k – 2k, that’s not ever normal being you can rent a apt or house for 600-800 a month easy! Those high rentals are soon to be foreclosures. I already told you our forclosures have increased about 30% each year and that’s huge! Wait until the summer when the market is flooding worse than now. Being a local I see the homes sitting for 6 months to 1 year and then the sign comes down or “For Rent” goes up. These are nice homes, with Jersey Plates on most of them. The people that have to commute are basically blue collar people that got priced out and bought into the American Dream of home ownership. The problem is they realize commuting costs & frustration is not worth it. If you bought a home in the lehigh valley in the last 2 years, you lost money already. That’s a gurantee! Look at the lehighcounty deeds and run it against the multiple listing service on current homes. The writing is on the wall. I already gave examples of the market here in EAST PENN. That’s lower macungie township the hottest area for the last 5 years. Now you can wish your home is worth all that value but try and sell it. The paper is lying but I am not.
Can anyone give me history on listing# 717211 of realtor site.
We need to find someone with access to the Middlesex County MLS.
jb
Be careful who you contract to do work…
With demise of Robert’s, families try to rebuild futures
The Mount Arlington couple only paid Robert’s Home Designs $1,000 toward a $155,000 project to build an addition onto their Windemere Avenue home.
Other customers paid the once-prominent home remodeler $40,000 or more toward their projects while, unknown to them, Robert’s was heading toward bankruptcy.
“We didn’t have a lot of money (paid) up front,”Kelly Turner said. “We were one of the luckier ones in this situation.”
Robert’s Home Designs, owned by Robert Frazier, ceased operations in the fall, leaving dozens of customers throughout Morris and surrounding counties in construction limbo. Some had unlivable, partially torn-apart homes. Others had property strewn with building material, trash bins and portable toilets.
Now, almost half a year after construction stopped, some of the Randolph-based company’s customers either have completed or are nearly done with their projects because they hired different contractors, while others are in nearly the same situation that disrupted their lives last year.
Hey all, I’m in Florida (Weston/Ft. Lauderdale area) on vacation and haven’t been able to post. I know you all miss me greatly (insert sarcastic response here). The temperatures for the last few days have been around 80 and sunny, sunny. I know you are all freezing your butts off there. :) I’m going to try to check out the market here and will report my investigation like a good njreport blogger should. I’ll try to post when I could. Happy Easter.
Another week of rising inventories in NJ, 1.5% this week, almost at 2006 high. The only town seeing a lot of selling action is Hoboken, suckers paying 800K for small apartments. I see blood this spring selling season.
#323
You’re correct if you don’t have to commute every day. If you have to be in Jersey infrequently, then it does make more sense. Thanks for pointing that out
#345,
Gary, we are all good up here but freezing. We are waiting for the global warming to arrive. Al Gore said it will happen very soon.
ATT #335
JB #343
ML 717211 is at 6 Peru St, Edison. A new colonial 4bed, 3 fb, 2 car garage, full bsmnt. Just came on market 4/6/07…no apparent previous listings on this property.
Highest recent sale of 4 bedroom new home in Edison was $789K. All higher sales in past 6 months are 5 beds or larger.
Hope that helps.
Gary [345],
Colder on Easter Sunday than this past Christmas.
Questions;
1)Does the market calculate the # of short sales?
2)Are short sales figured in comps?
3)Any #’s on MEW, yoy?
Thanks, as usual.
That’s questions to all.
“Fiddy Cents on the Dollar” (#349).
Thanks.
Global Warming, Schmoble Warming. A great piece that EVERYONE has to watch. Maybe this forecast will impact the RE market somehow.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4340135300469846467
Rich or anyone. I am looking to buy in Bernardsville, either EOY with a lowball or next year at a “reasonable” price. I saw this listing a while back, could have sworn it was like 700k or something. Can you pull any information up about this property. Much Thanks!
MLS ID# 2303271
LV, you are extremely negative. It’s almost as if you want to intentionally discourage people from coming here. Look, I don’t want it to get too crowded myself, but the migration will not stop.
On the front page of the Morning Call today is a big story about the high end malls that are getting built in our area due to the changed demographics; specifically income and education. Is that a lie? That changed demographic is strictly due to the influx of New Jerseyeans and New Yorkers. Why are millions of dollars being spent to expand and built new high end malls? Apparently, the mall builders agree with me that the migration will continue unabated. You locals continue to look in the rear view mirror and not seeing the changes taking place right in front of your eyes. There’s a lot of resentment under the surface that comes out every now and then evidenced most directly in my town with a fight over whether to build a swimming pool in the new middle school that’s needed. The locals are moaning about paying a couple of mills more in the property taxes versus the newcomers that want to upgrade the offerings.
LV housing was no different than NJ housing in the late 80’s and early 90’s; both areas saw reversals in housing prices. The LV just stayed in recession longer and I was able to take advantage of that 6 years ago before the rush.
The coming of the Sands will result in redevelopment of the entire southside of Bethlehem. The move of Olympus from Long Island to our area is also a very positive development as well along with the route 33 opening. This area has a lot going for it notwithstanding your naysaying.
I noticed that you keep talking about the Poconos and Carbon county, which are two areas outside of the valley that have absolutely nothing to do with us. Why do you try to confuse people by doing this? Trying to scare people off?
Now, I do admit that things have slowed on the high end and that affordability for locals has been impacted. However, the average home price is well below NNJ, so anyone who can make the commute fit their lifestyle is going to choose this area.
Lehigh Valley Says:
April 8th, 2007 at 10:31 am
People are not going to keep coming, what are you smoking? I don’t resent people, I laugh more actually. I know lot’s of people and frequently near the Pocono mnt area. That area has went to crap and guess what…..more people left. The majority of people can’t take the commute. It’s when they try and leave the Poconos they find out that house is not worth anything near what they paid. Look it up it’s true, Carbon county has the highest foreclosures in the state. Guess what, the Morning Call newspapers doesn’t report on foreclosures, I wonder why? I’ll tell you, it’s because they are on the rise in Lehigh, Bucks & Northampton counties. Our area has been here for years and when 78 opened the same thing happened, people moved, prices went up and then sat stagnant for 12 years. That was in the early 90’s. A 1-2 hour commute each way is not a bedroom community, just not true. If you bought 6 years ago your good, 9 years would be better :) though. The problem is the papers and realtors are not reporting the truth. Since late 2005 our prices have been steadily declining, along with currently we have the largest number of homes ever on the market. That doesn’t include all the homes that didn’t sell and our trying to rent for 1k – 2k, that’s not ever normal being you can rent a apt or house for 600-800 a month easy! Those high rentals are soon to be foreclosures. I already told you our forclosures have increased about 30% each year and that’s huge! Wait until the summer when the market is flooding worse than now. Being a local I see the homes sitting for 6 months to 1 year and then the sign comes down or “For Rent” goes up. These are nice homes, with Jersey Plates on most of them. The people that have to commute are basically blue collar people that got priced out and bought into the American Dream of home ownership. The problem is they realize commuting costs & frustration is not worth it. If you bought a home in the lehigh valley in the last 2 years, you lost money already. That’s a gurantee! Look at the lehighcounty deeds and run it against the multiple listing service on current homes. The writing is on the wall. I already gave examples of the market here in EAST PENN. That’s lower macungie township the hottest area for the last 5 years. Now you can wish your home is worth all that value but try and sell it. The paper is lying but I am not.
“Rising oil prices, Mideast conflicts and a U.S. president perceived as ineffective contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Today, in the bond market, where Yogi Berra’s immortal lines are increasingly invoked, “it’s deja vu all over again.”
“Wall Street has been full of wishful thinkers thinking if only Bernanke would lower interest rates,” said Samuelson, a professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in an interview from Florida. “Well he’s not going to do it. He would lose his credibility if he did.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKGp4kEjHa9E&refer=home
BC Bob, from the article you posted # 356 –
“Early in the Clinton days, the hallmark of policy was if you did this, how would it affect the bond market,” said the 62- year-old Carville, from his office in Alexandria, Virginia. “Every time I would talk to someone they would say `you can’t do that, it will freak the bond market out.’ I said `goddamn, whoever the bond market is, these bastards are powerful.”’
That cracks me up!!!
The locals are moaning about paying a couple of mills more in the property taxes versus the newcomers that want to upgrade the offerings.
njrefugee # 355,
Could it be New Jersey’s penchant for upgrading the offerings that have led us to the state we’re in today, with the sky-high property taxes?
My sense is that while it may not be the sole reason for the current state of affairs, it has been a factor nevertheless. Is it really wise to take the predilections that have made NJ what it is to the other state one moves to? Maybe the locals have it right, after all the LV is what it is (low prices, low taxes) largely because of them.
Just a thought.
synch,
I think NJ’s problems with property taxes are a function of self rule and a resistance to consolidation or regionalization of services. PA has the same problem in a way, even though the taxes are less. We have the same situation of towns abutting each other, yet having separate governments and school systems. For example, there are three Nazareth’s here: Upper Naz, Lower Naz and Nazaerth. Fortunately, everyone goes to the same school system.
The problem is that the increased population has resulted in the need to build new schools and if one is going to have to do it anyway, why not put in a pool? The problem is that the those who have been here resent what they see as an encroachment of “outsiders” and this is really a struggle over control and less about a couple of extra mils in the tax bill.
Setting aside the local issue here, generally governments have absolutely no incentive to deliver services efficiently unless absolutely compelled to do so by the citizens. If folks want lower property taxes, they need to insist on efficient delivery of government services which may include, among other things, consolidation. Unfortunately, there are vested interests in home rule that are as entrenched here as they are in NNJ.
There was a report not too long ago that NJ became #1 per capita income state – finally beating CT. Not because people were making more money, but because lower income family from NJ moved out to upstate NY and Delaware but mostly to Pa.
Are they going to Pocono area? LeHigh Area? Philly area?
njrefugee:
I don’t understand why people move to a new area and then feel the need complain about the establishment. One of the reasons that PA’s taxes are less is because they don’t have pools in middle schools. ‘Why not put in a pool?’ Because the money can be better spent on computers, books, playground equipment, etc. Pools need to maintained. Pools increase the whole district’s insurance costs.
Take all of that money that you’re saving in taxes and donate it too the school district. That area has been in a recession for some time. Maybe they are a bit more frugal. But I want a school board that is willing to hold the line on expenditures. The quickest way for you to make enemies is to point out how unsophisticated your new neighbors are. If your kids need a pool, send them to the Y.
One guy who works for me lives in the suburbs of Allentown. He doesn’t mind the commute and he told me that he actually gets to read in the bus to the City. His biggest complaint was that 1st of each month, so many people from Pa goes to NYC to get their welfare check (double and tripple dipping) and the bus gets crowded.
(Yes, I am a liberal but I am not into helping these parasites – I am for the people who deserves a 2nd chance).
I went to his house a few times – quite nice and quite cheap. He doesn’t have the kids and he enjoys living there. If I didn’t have kids, I wouldn’t mind living there also.
There is something nice about country living. Sure they don’t have the “fansy” restaurants and a lot of ammenities but there is certain charm about that area.
As for the swimming pool for the middle school. Why do they need a swimming pool?
My town is about to raise tax again – another 5%. We already raised mucho dinero last time for expansion of middle and elementary school. Our town teachers are already the highest paid teachers in the entire state of NJ.
I was told that.. it will only raise your tax $247/year.
Well, every year, it adds up. Eventually, only teachers could afford to live in this town.
Pat –
Cute, a lot better than a rotting cape cod in Westfield.
Investor David:
Teachers can afford to live there until they retire. Then they move to PA, DE, or FL because NJ taxes their pensions.
Thanks for your comments d2b.
The school board is in favor of the pool. It is some of the voters that are up in arms. Some want residents want the pool while others are against it. Generally, those for it are newcomers.
d2b Says:
April 8th, 2007 at 5:21 pm
njrefugee:
I don’t understand why people move to a new area and then feel the need complain about the establishment. One of the reasons that PA’s taxes are less is because they don’t have pools in middle schools. ‘Why not put in a pool?’ Because the money can be better spent on computers, books, playground equipment, etc. Pools need to maintained. Pools increase the whole district’s insurance costs.
Take all of that money that you’re saving in taxes and donate it too the school district. That area has been in a recession for some time. Maybe they are a bit more frugal. But I want a school board that is willing to hold the line on expenditures. The quickest way for you to make enemies is to point out how unsophisticated your new neighbors are. If your kids need a pool, send them to the Y.
Was in the good ol midwest for last week. Visited Nashville, Memphis, Little Rock & Hot Springs.
The living is large in this party of US. Everyone seems to live in large McMansions, drive large SUV and shopping at newly constructed Malls. Too much new construction. At an exit about 20 miles from Memphis, there was new development. Price $160K for 4BR colonial house. I guess lumber is very cheap there. Also so many mexical restaurants, at few places food was really great.
The bad part was downtown Memphis area. Went to visit Graceland, the whole area has become comparable to Camden. I would say there are definitely some good places to retire over there. Lot of Golf communities in Arkansas and man made lakes.
Richie Says:
April 6th, 2007 at 4:17 pm
Honestly, anyone except Corzine will do.
He was making good headway in the beginning, but now I doubt him. His whole crackdown on ethics is coming back to haunt him.
R: From what I hear, Booker won’t be staying in Newark long….you can bet that if Corzine flubs anything more, there is going to be a mad drum beating for Booker to step up.
BTW…please don’t hold your breath waiting for another Kennedy. Although I do think Obama’s gonna meet the same end.
Clot: 20 years from now, I bet Booker is further along than Obama. On the surface I really like Obama, but there is something creepy about him. Booker is a more genuine article. I just get the feeling Obama has some skeletons….
I checked out the listing # 717211 by driving by. WOW – seems the realtor is doing a ‘Bait & switch’. The house is nothing like what it looks in the listing.
Is the realtor an idiot. Why would someone who is going to spend 700K+ tolerate ‘Bait & switch’??
Is this thing even possible in real estate business – just curious?
Was in the good ol midwest for last week. Visited Nashville, Memphis, Little Rock & Hot Springs.
The living is large in this party of US. Everyone seems to live in large McMansions, drive large SUV and shopping at newly constructed Malls. Too much new construction.
SG #366,
Exactly my thoughts about both the Raleigh-Cary (NC) and Fort Myers (FL) areas when I was there last year.
New Jersey feels and looks like a dump in comparison.
CELL1
CELL2
testing, ignore
I just got this in my email from a realtor. Thought I’d share.
In the summer of 2006, the National Association of Home Builders conducted a survey of trade associations, researchers and manufacturers to compile information about the durability of common home elements.
…
Below is a sample of their findings. Please note that these figures represent general guidelines, and should not be interpreted as a warranty or guarantee of performance for an individual product.
Type,Lifespan (in years)
Appliances
Refrigerators (standard size), 13
Ranges (Electric), 13
Ranges (Gas), 15
Water Heaters (Electric), 11
Water Heaters (Gas), 10
Washer, 10
Dryers (Electric), 13
Dryers (Gas), 13
Warm Air Furnaces (Electric), 15
Warm Air Furnaces (Gas), 18
Warm Air Furnaces (Oil), 20
Cabinets
Bath Cabinets, Lifetime
Kitchen Cabinets, 50
Closet Shelves, Lifetime
Countertops
Cultured Marble, 20
Natural Stone, Lifetime
Tile, Lifetime
Wood, Lifetime
Flooring
All Wooden Floors, Lifetime
Carpet, 8-10
Laminate, 15-25
Linoleum, 25
Marble, 100+
Slate, 100
Tile, 75-100
Paint
Exterior, 15
Interior, 15
Exterior Doors
Fiberglass, Lifetime
Steel, Fire Rated, Lifetime
Vinyl, 20
Wood, Lifetime
Screen,40
You can call me negative but you are living in a dream world. Look at East Penn SD, the classroom changes all year long. They start out with 25-30 kids and end up with 18 – 20. That’s been a 2 year trend. If you listen to what the morning call reports you are a sucker. That paper is so biased to real estate it’s crazy. They make their main revenue off realtors. Not many papers talk about the downfall in the real estate market. When you look at what the top people have been saying for years this was coming. I guess Japan didn’t collapse in the 80’s right? This country has never been in such a dire level with regards to debt & foreclosures. Almost dailt another report comes out with huge changes from the top mortgage & building comapnies. Their earlt prediction are stunning even them (like they couldn’t see it coming). You and others got sold on the fact that commuters are changing the lehigh valley (the only jobs created by commuters are retail “do you want fries with that?” That’s not good for the economy and 15,000 people in 5 years is not changing the overall 700,000 around the lehigh valley. Tell me again how Robert Shiller does not know what he’s talking about. He’s one of the most admired men in the business. Here’s just one simple graph,
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
there are 10 to 1 people in favor of showing how this bubble is crashing and it’s just beginning to show it’s ugly face. It’s going to get worse, just like the weekly horror stories on the news, it will get worse! Watch how this guys views will change come August when the tsunami is making it’s first of many big waves.
One final thing a simple poll
How many people would drive over 3 hours a day total just to live in a cheap home?
SG # 366
You are right on. I have good friends that couldn’t take Memphis anymore. They moved not too far away to a town Southhaven, Miss. I guess whatever the plague is that is invading Memphis is running people off in a big way. In the general surrounding area land is cheap. Houses are cheap. I’m amazed what $200K can buy in that area.
Chifi,
Funny, I as saying Cory Booker was going to be the first black pres. when he lost the last election. I still beleive it, even more now that he’s won.
KL
as =was
Where does Tony Soprano live and how much is his house worth?
North Caldwell
I said `goddamn, whoever the bond market is, these bastards are powerful.”’
sync [357].
At least Carville was perceptive.
“North Caldwell”
JB [378],
I thought it was Satin Dolls, aka Bada Bing.
“Yes, I am a liberal but I am not into helping these parasites”
David,
You picked me up after a tough loss.
You pack a lot of arguments in one post. Let me deal with them one by one:
1. Your experiences in the East Penn school district are unusual. We are not experiencing this in the Nazareth Area School District. Classrooms are burgeoning, which is why another new school is needed.
2. The Express Times must be in cahoots with the Morning Call because both of them are reporting the same thing about exploding population and changing demograhics (higher income and educational levels) being driven by newcomers from NJ/NY/Philly. This is why all the malls with amenities are being built.
3. I never said that many americans were not excessively leveraged. I never said that housing was not due for a reversal (I happen to think NNJ will get the worst end of that.) So stop trying to create strawman arguments.
4. The commuters are changing the demographics of the Lehigh Valley as evidenced in the Morning Call article this past week that you refuse to acknowledge because according to you they’re “lying”. Only NYC, Boston and Philly added more people than our area last year. Our area is growing, particularly Northampton county.
5. People routinely spend a significant amount of time commuting from Long Island to NYC. Same applies to NJ commutes into NYC. Same also applies to areas in CA. As a matter of fact, most Californians would love to have a commute as short as the one from the LV to NNJ. Hell, people can spend the same amount of time commuting within Manhattan packed in trains like sardines as folks spend commuting from the LV. I’d prefer to drive and have more money in my pocket as opposed to paying thousands more for half as much. Again, it gets down to preference. For me, the cost of commuting is far less than paying housing costs in NNJ.
6. I do agree that more local high paying jobs are needed here. I believe that ultimately they will come over time, however, the changes being wrought by the changing demographics are here to stay and the spending by the newcomers will continue to boost the fortunes of the LV.
I don’t know why you are so negative about the valley. Again, you’re looking in the rear view mirror. You’ll need to turn around and look out front, otherwise you’ll be in the position of looking in on everyone else with your nose pressed up against the window.
Lehigh Valley Says:
April 8th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
You can call me negative but you are living in a dream world. Look at East Penn SD, the classroom changes all year long. They start out with 25-30 kids and end up with 18 – 20. That’s been a 2 year trend. If you listen to what the morning call reports you are a sucker. That paper is so biased to real estate it’s crazy. They make their main revenue off realtors. Not many papers talk about the downfall in the real estate market. When you look at what the top people have been saying for years this was coming. I guess Japan didn’t collapse in the 80’s right? This country has never been in such a dire level with regards to debt & foreclosures. Almost dailt another report comes out with huge changes from the top mortgage & building comapnies. Their earlt prediction are stunning even them (like they couldn’t see it coming). You and others got sold on the fact that commuters are changing the lehigh valley (the only jobs created by commuters are retail “do you want fries with that?” That’s not good for the economy and 15,000 people in 5 years is not changing the overall 700,000 around the lehigh valley. Tell me again how Robert Shiller does not know what he’s talking about. He’s one of the most admired men in the business. Here’s just one simple graph,
http://graphics10.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
there are 10 to 1 people in favor of showing how this bubble is crashing and it’s just beginning to show it’s ugly face. It’s going to get worse, just like the weekly horror stories on the news, it will get worse! Watch how this guys views will change come August when the tsunami is making it’s first of many big waves.
One final thing a simple poll
How many people would drive over 3 hours a day total just to live in a cheap home?
TJ,
Sorry, I only have access to NJMLS and it mostly covers Bergen County.
“20 years from now, I bet Booker is further along than Obama”
Chi,
How about within the next 4 years? He’s Da Man. I can’t imagine what it will be like if Obama throws on his helmet, on top of a M1A1. Please no reincarnation of Dukakis.
From MarketWatch:
Lenders agree more disclosure is needed on ‘no cost’ mortgages
“Now after these people have lived in the house for three years and have done nothing to improve their credit to get a better rate, I should feel guilty because [the loan is] adjusting?
“I think the whole blame should be spread across the board, from lender to broker to borrower. The banks made the programs for people who would never have gotten a loan otherwise. Now I should feel guilty for selling it and making money on it? The banks don’t lend free money and I don’t sell free money.”
“Where does Tony Soprano live”
d2b,
I hate to admit it, but I know the subprime can can a better deal from a Tony wannabe in the marshes of South Kearny as compared to the mortgage market, as of, today. Closing is easy, just a handshake. However, there will be no bailout. Pay, on time, or you are Hoffasized.
One final thing a simple poll
How many people would drive over 3 hours a day total just to live in a cheap home?
Lehigh Valley # 373,
How much cheaper? Everything has its price and so does this.
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2007/04/homes-not-just-homepages.html
“Yahoo! has included a foreclosure center on its Web site to help bargain hunters capitalize on the slumping real estate market.”
“The new section unveiled this week is similar to other Internet services like foreclosurefree search.com, foreclosuredeals .com, and realestateforeclosures .net that identify repossessed homes.”
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070407/BUSINESS/704070463/1003/BUSINESS
sync (357)-
One of the smartest things the Clinton administration did was make nice to the bond market. They really forced fiscal discipline down Clinton’s throat.
ChiFi (368)-
Does that mean Carla Katz could be First Lady?
Looks like Costa Rican citizenship for me.
lostinny (374)-
As a native Memphian, I can sum up the “problem” there: crime, runaway taxes and government corruption (like Newark x 20). Go five minutes across the state line, and MS awaits with arms open: low taxes, non-existent crime…and concealed weapons are most welcome, too! When FedEx picked up in ’05 and moved out of Memphis across the state line, the rush was on.
But, the Grizzlies are gonna get Durant or Oden. Good times coming!
I think an Obama in rehab story is about three months from detonating.
Now that Obama’s shown he can stand toe-to-toe with Hillary in the money-raising arena, it’s to the dirty tricks/black ops department for the she-devil.
At your convience, could someone look up the address for these listings in Morris Township?
#2390907
#2333115
Thanks,
ABA
att,
I just got back in from Easter weekend with the relatives.
Your question about the re-assessment: Apparently, some houses will go up, while others go down. Terry Cullen wrote a column about the possible effects of the re-assessment for the WSJ. If you can’t get this link because you’re not a subscriber, ask grim to email me for it:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117025688474593716-search.html?KEYWORDS=Cullen&COLLECTION=wsjie/6month
att,
Also, what makes you think that the Woodbridge schools aren’t that great? My niece and nephew went to JFK and both got merit scholarships. Lots of advanced programs, starting in the lower grades.
There’s been so much new construction in Edison, one of my relatives was saying that they may have to build some new schools – another possible assessment for the taxpayers.
I think that, more than anything else, the property tax situation in Edison is an unknown right now. Not sure when they will know.
just my opinion, but anyone who thinks Cory Booker’s going to be the next Obama is crazy. i don’t think he’s going to make more than maybe one more term as mayor of Newark.
Thank you for your site.
I have found here much useful information…
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/42/42077.html
5.9 % in 5 years is no population boom. The people who bought into this local bubble are going to suffer. The prices of homes in the Lehigh Valley will return to prices around 2002 or before. That’s going to happen because commuters are not thriving and many of the homes are investment homes & the speculative market is gone here. The smart money was out in early 2005. The people who want to believe are either dumb are refinanced like mad (that’s the most common). Our medium family income is the mid 40’s. These suckers who bought are now watching home values decrease. Even the morning call printed in December 2006 how the average home dropped & people weren’t buying. 3 months later and they act like that never happened. It’s a cat & mouse game. They want ad’s & realtors want homes sold. The problem is inventories are skyrocketing(highest ever, check me out if I am lying, I am not) and prices have dropped. Look at my examples from earlier and it’s right there. By next year those who didn’t sell can wish they did & those who did will still be happy. I’ll be one who didn’t sell and is happy either way. It’s just the way things go. This area is not a commuting zone. Like I said if it was it would have been done years ago. Oh that’s right people tried moving here when 78 opened in the late 80’s & early 90’s remember? They raised prices and it lasted about 3 years, then prices dropped and barely recovered, this is nothing compared with the mortgage blow out this time around. I do and if you look at the lehigh county deeds and do some quick research it’s there too. Sorry former NJ guy you are talking to someone who has watched our local market for almost 20 years. It doesn’t take a genius to see this coming after 2003. 2 striaght years of double digit growth and most truely smart local buyers remembered the 80’s. Commuters won’t bring more money or jobs on the contrary. An employer knows you commuted for work so they can lowball you simply because they know it has to suck driving that much every day. Our wages are much lower because are cost of living was and is getting low again. With the prices commuters paid for homes they can’t afford to take the pay cut so god forbid something happens to their commuting job. Now that’s when the trouble begins. It’s already happening, the foreclosures around here are up over 30% since last year. Most of these NJ & NYC residents were the sub-prime or arm loans. That’s a fact! Along with that being a local and knowing many people that own and work in contruction I can assure you something. The recent cookie cutter homes that were thrown up every with 2 X 4’s mostly not even 2 X 6’s are built like nightmares. Wait until you have to replace the roofs and windows. They were building so fast they couldn’t wait for runs from the factory on most supplies. They took odd lots and buy outs for most large orders. When these people go our and try to match up 5-10 years later, LOOK OUT. If these people saw the land their homes are built on they would never have bought. Lower Macungie is a complete SWAMP, hell the nickname of Macungie is “Bear Swamp”. They are selling 300-400k homes there that are sinking as we speak. Anyone that lived around here and witnessed this place since around 1996-present it is a chuckle. Trust me these houses and prices are going to the dumps. Our area is going to go back to the peaceful economic area it was. Sure, the commuters will come and go but they never will see those prices for at least 10 years. By 2008 I promise you a normal single family home build before the 90’s will be selling for 145-165k. That’s a good price and what the adnustment, correction, bubble price, whatever you want to call it will be. Write that down and take it to NJ on that 3 hour a day ride. God that sucks, what I can do with my family and that time is not worth any amount of money. That’s the thing, 99.99% of them when you add in the cost of constantly needing a new car, insurance, gas, wear & tear (tires, oil change, general maint) toll on your body sitting in a car for as he said 1 1/2 hour normal day that’s over 3 hours with no problems. They have a home but are not making that much more wher they are doing so well. These people are the ones who are debted out and will be losing the homes first. Look around HUD properties and see how many are in the Lehigh & Northampton area. It will shock you. Foreclosures alone will begin to drive prices down even more. The last suckers are slowly coming to buy from NJ & NYC.
Here’s the article from the Morning Call. Now how did they change their tune 3 months POST? This just proves how they can’t even keep their lies straight.
The Morning Call from Pennsylvania. “Kevin and Jen Graney liked the spacious house on a half-acre in Bethlehem Township, but not the $500,000 asking price. So they offered $30,000 less than the list price, and last month, the seller accepted.”
“The Graneys’ experience reflects a shift in the housing market in 2006. Home buyers regained a flexibility to negotiate that had been lost in the boom years of 2004 and 2005. The seller gladly accepted the offer of $470,000 because the home had been on the market for more than a year. Other offers, including one for $525,000, had fallen through.”
“‘People are thinking twice about how much more properties can appreciate in value,’ said Stephen Thode, at Lehigh University. ‘Rather than committing to that jumbo mortgage on the bigger home, they are saying, ‘I think I will stay put for a while.’”
“The slowing pace stemmed partly from the large number of homes offered for sale. New listings outpaced home sales by nearly two to one last year. The local housing stock has swelled, with the construction of dozens of new subdivisions in the last 10 years. The bigger supply of available houses allowed buyers to be more selective, which in some cases depressed prices.”
“Real estate agents in the Valley spent much of 2006 trying to convince sellers that the market had shifted in favor of buyers. Many say sellers still wanted to set asking prices that were too high for the market.”
“‘I worked with quite a few sellers who did not really care that people were saying the market was sliding,’ said Ellen Shaughnessy, an agent in Easton. ‘They still wanted to price their homes at a premium despite what was starting to happen. Some of those [homes] are still there.’”
“At the same time, real estate agents say many buyers have falsely assumed the market is in free fall, and have submitted offers that grossly undercut asking prices.”
“Real estate agent Loren Keim said his Allentown firm put five properties priced at $500,000 on the market at the end of the year. All the properties received offers between $350,000 and $360,000, or 30 percent less than listing prices. Virtually no seller is going to accept an offer so low.”
“Typically, homes in the Lehigh Valley appreciate about 5 percent a year. But since 2000, average prices have soared a total of 80 percent.”
“New homes have been a big draw for people moving here from New York and New Jersey. The average price of a new home surpassed $400,000 for all but two months last year. ‘You will have this natural momentum toward higher-priced homes because there is more of that inventory as a percentage of the total market,’ Thode said.”
“Real estate agents say, for example, that homes priced at less than $200,000 continued to sell quickly. The same can’t be said of the higher-priced homes on the market. ‘Over $300,000, it is really slow,’ said (broker) Jack Gross in Bethlehem. ‘Things are not flying off the shelves.’”
“In the previously hot Palisades school district in Upper Bucks County, home prices fell 12 percent last year to $465,812, and the number of homes sold dropped 25 percent.”
“Keim said people are hesitating before buying because they don’t want to get caught in a falling market.
Saturday’s Suze Orman show featured Casey Serin of IamFacingForeclosure.com fame.
He came off better than one might expect, but not very repentant.
He discussed his plans to short sell some properties, and Orman suggested he just walk away and focus on his immediate bills such as rent, utilities, etc.
The appearance was more of novelty interest, since he’s been discussed online so often.
http://www.iamfacingforeclosure.com/199/facing-foreclosure-on-suze-orman-show/
Casey recorded a call with a someone trying to collect money:
http://www.iamfacingforeclosure.com/189/cashcall-says-220-by-12pm-tomorrow-or-else-donation/
Key Casey moment with bill collector: “I’m thinking about getting a job.”
The interest rates for “CashCall” who is the bill collector on the call:
Loan Product Interest Rate
$20,000 Loan 24%
$10,000 Loan 21%
$10,000 Loan 34%
$10,000 Loan 39%
$10,000 Loan 44%
$5,075 Loan 59%
$2,600 Loan 96%
http://www.cashcall.com/General/Rates.aspx
Lehigh Valley,
I noticed your attempt to quote only population growth in Lehigh County rather than the Lehigh Valley metropolitan statistical area. That’s an underhanded little trick (using selective and incomplete information) that I’m going to call you on. Here’s the article from the Morning Call regarding our population boom. Like I said, I don’t want our area to get too crowded either, but I’m not prepared to put out a bunch of lies to discourage folks:
“Population boom
Just three Northeast metropolitan regions added more people this decade than the Lehigh Valley
By Gregory Karp Of The Morning Call
The Lehigh Valley smashed through the 800,000 population mark during 2006 and ranks among the very fastest growing regions in the Northeast, according to Census data to be released today.
Population growth has caused a before-your-eyes metamorphosis of the region in a few years.
Since the last full Census in 2000, the Lehigh Valley added 59,942 people, nearly the same as the Boston metropolitan area. The nearly 60,000 people are more than twice the population of Easton, and growth is on pace to add a record-breaking 100,000 people this decade.
Officially, the Valley’s estimated population in mid-2006 was 800,336. The Census Bureau defines the Lehigh Valley metro area as the counties of Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon and Warren, N.J.
Across the Northeast, only the major metropolitan regions of New York, Philadelphia and Boston added more people than the Lehigh Valley this decade. And the so-called Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro region ranked No. 1 among Northeast regions of fewer than 1 million people.
”The magnitude of the growth appears larger than I expected,” said Kamran Afshar, an economist who studies the Lehigh Valley economy. ”A 60,000 change is huge.”
The historic increase amounts to 8.1 percent population growth in just six years. By percentage, the Lehigh Valley ranks No. 2 among metro regions in the nine-state Northeast. It was second only to York, a region half as big as the Lehigh Valley that grew 9.1 percent.
Population growth this decade has been fueled almost exclusively by the migration of people fleeing high-cost areas of New York, New Jersey and, to a lesser extent, Philadelphia. The new residents came in search of a lower cost of living, especially less expensive homes. Many were able to keep their high-paying jobs in New Jersey or suburban Philadelphia and trade off a lengthy commute for a richer lifestyle.
While the Valley’s growth is extraordinary in the densely populated and slow-growing Northeast, it’s less impressive compared with all U.S. regions, which include rapidly growing areas in the South and West. The Lehigh Valley region ranked 56th of 361 metro U.S. regions — the top 15 percent — in number of people added this decade and 113th — the top one-third — by percentage growth.
But among its geographical peers in the Northeast, the Lehigh Valley has been a premier destination. In 2006 alone, the Lehigh Valley added 10,641 people.
Northampton County was the primary driver of growth, increasing population 9.1 percent, or about 24,000 people, since 2000. Lehigh County grew by nearly as much, about 23,500, or 7.5 percent. Other components of the metro area, Carbon County and Warren County, N.J., added a combined 12,000 people.
The effects of rapid population growth are many and varied.
The swarm of people ignited the Lehigh Valley housing market, which sizzled even hotter than most places in America during the recent housing boom. Retail development exploded and included higher-end retailers and a slew of restaurants. Total income for area residents rose far faster than the national average. The influx even makes the Lehigh Valley appear more educated, statistically, because many of the new residents have college degrees.
”It appears to be helping our economy, in terms of keeping the housing market stronger than it would have been otherwise,” Afshar said. ”There is no question the growth of disposable income in our area is pretty strong.”
The rise in population has also meant crowding in schools, requiring expensive school expansions. It has meant more traffic on Lehigh Valley roads and loss of open space that longtime residents cherish — cornfields being plowed under to make way for housing and retail developments……..”
Lehigh Valley:
I’ve said repeatedly that the high end of housing is slowing in the LV while price points below 200K are moving just fine. Again, you like to create strawman arguements.
Here’s yet another article from the “liars” at the Morning Call. Why do you insist on being so selective in what you choose to read and quote from the Morning Call? Why do you want to deny that our area is growing?
Valley of the malls
The region is in the midst of biggest burst of building since 1970s.
By Kurt Blumenau Of The Morning Call
As the average Lehigh Valley resident gets wealthier, mall developers are jostling to provide plenty of places to spend that money.
Now, the region finds itself in the midst of what could be called its second golden age of mall-building. Three malls and one major mall expansion are either complete or in line to be built over the next two years, the biggest burst of major retail building since the mid-1970s.
The Promenade Shops at Saucon Valley (open)
• Banana Republic
• Brooks Brothers
• Fresh Market
• L.L. Bean
• J.E. Caldwell & Co.
• J. Jill
• Jos. A. Bank Clothiers
• Limited Too
• Lucky Brand
• Old Navy
• Rave Motion Pictures
• Sage
• Starbucks
• Velvet
Lehigh Valley Mall addition (under construction)
• Ann Taylor
• Coach
• Coldwater Creek
• Pottery Barn
• Sephora
• Sharper Image
• White House/Black Market
• Williams-Sonoma
BethWorks Now center (proposed)
• Barneys New York
• Eddie Bauer
• Ralph Lauren
• Salvatore Ferragamo
• Tommy Hilfiger
The Summit Lehigh Valley (proposed)
• Best Buy
• Muvico Theaters
• On The Border Mexican Grill & Cantina
• P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
• Target
Note: Stores listed for proposed malls have been announced by builders or retailers
Source: Morning Call research Related PhotosLehigh Valley Area Shopping, Past and Present
(The Morning Call) Lehigh Valley Local Links
The Promenade Shops at Saucon Valley, a ”lifestyle center” upscale mall, opened in the fall in Upper Saucon Township. An upscale addition to the Lehigh Valley Mall in Whitehall will welcome its first shoppers this summer. And work should begin this year on The Summit Lehigh Valley, a large Bethlehem Township mall, and on a high-end shopping center in the BethWorks casino project in Bethlehem.
The closest comparison for major mall construction is the period between 1973 and 1976, when Lehigh Valley and Palmer Park malls opened and the Hess’s South department store was expanded to become the South Mall.
The Valley also saw a retail building boom in the late 1980s, but most of those projects were smaller strip centers of the type that line MacArthur Road in Whitehall Township.
What’s driving the new boom? Again, the region’s improved demographics have a lot to do with it. As the Valley’s average income and education levels rise, the area becomes attractive to a new batch of retailers, such as Williams-Sonoma and Coldwater Creek.
The Valley’s mall explosion also coincides with a national craze for lifestyle centers, the industry name for open-air malls with extensive landscaping, town-center ambience and, generally, upscale stores. All four of the new projects are based on that model.
Half of the country’s 150 lifestyle centers have been built in the last five years, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers trade group.
But retail industry watchers warn that a shiny, new facade or hot, new format do not guarantee success. Some experts doubt all four malls will be able to land enough must-shop stores to establish themselves. At worst, the malls that fall behind in the leasing race will fade away; at best, they will operate in the shadows of the winners.
That point is underlined by shoppers such as Kathy Kutoloski, a lifelong Valley resident who remembers when the wave of ’70s malls supplanted downtown shopping districts. For Kutoloski, the stores make the mall, first and foremost.
”It isn’t about the location or how far we have to drive,” said Kutoloski, of North Whitehall Township. ”It is about the quality of stores and the merchandise offered.”
A Valleywide mall makeover
The re-malling of the Valley began to take shape in fall 2003, when plans for the Promenade Shops and the Summit Lehigh Valley were unveiled within two months of each other. Reports of a Lehigh Valley Mall addition began circulating the following spring, while the casino retail center was announced in December 2004.
All four promised a new class of national chains that had not yet reached the Valley, stores such as L.L. Bean and Pottery Barn and restaurants such as P.F. Chang’s China Bistro.
New arrivals in the Valley — especially those from New York, New Jersey and Philadelphia — demanded that variety, longtime real estate broker Amy Hawley said.
”You’ve seen a significant population increase in the Valley,” said Hawley, founder and president of Hawley Realty. ”There’s an influence from the migration from metro New York, where the shoppers are used to having centers that have a lot more of a tenant mix.”
The new projects range from 110,000 square feet at the Lehigh Valley Mall addition to 900,000 square feet for the Summit. The Lehigh Valley Mall is currently the region’s largest, at about
1 million square feet before the addition.
For a time, it wasn’t clear how many of the newly proposed centers would be built. The casino mall, in particular, stayed on hold for two years as its builders waited to see whether they would receive a state-issued slots license.
Now, though, the Valley has a solid chance of getting all four. The Promenade is open, and the Lehigh Valley Mall addition is taking shape. The casino backers have their slots license. And the Summit’s backers got approval this year to buy out-of-town liquor licenses for planned restaurants, one of several steps indicating the mall is proceeding toward a groundbreaking….
#2390907 – 6 Hawthorne Court
#2333115 – 16 Fox Hollow Road
#407
JB
Thanks again. You have a few drinks coming from me should you ever schedule another get together.
njrefugee, how long have you been in real estae. I showed you examples of houses way under 200k in great neighborhoods, NOT SELLING. You got burned into thinking our bunbble is not one, you will be back in NJ living in a dump soon along with all your little NJ bum buddies. Prices are not selling on homes marked at 150k so trust me, 200k homes are not selling either. You obviously have a vested interested so I would guess your are a REALTOR or another debted out soul. Come to Emmaus, PA and look around, lot’s of houses way under 200k. That’s a steal right? Not, nobody is buying because the 150k house will be under 100k SOON.
NjRefugee, Since your a realtor I have another question. You defend the morning call on the question of Bias. Since foreclosures in the lehigh valley are up 30% since last year, do you think that’s newsworthy? When the morning call printed in January homes prices are up 9% since last year did yo believe it? Why didn’t the article stress how they came up with those figures? Because if they did they would have had to tell you the truth, they SPIN articles & KPI’s in their favor. The article that said there was a 9% increase in prices didn’t tell you that took into consideretation “REFINANCING”. That’s why our prices “look” like they went up. It’s a numbers game, just like unemployement being at 4.4%. How about the tens of thousands of people who don’t have jobs and just simply fell off the equation. It’s the same thing the morning call doesn’t with population numbers. I lived in Atlanta (80’s & 90’s boom in population), Charlotte (another boom town) and the main portion of life in this area. They are flat out lying if they say all these people have moved here. It’s not true. They simply like you are trying to make people not see the TRUTH. You basic lies are false. You can’t have home values going up when the foreclosures are coming hard. Our area is a bubble, it wouldn’t see so bad if you just accepted it, instead you are a person who really thought their home should have and did double in value in 5 years (NOW THAT’S THE FUNNY PART). If you listened to your thoughts are prices would be higher than Manhatten in 5 years. Na, we will be just a little bit higher than Pottsville, that’s our speed.
You lose, now take your sorry ass back on the highway to NJ.
Lehigh Valley,
Whay do you say the homes built in the last 5 years were “built like crap”? Have you heard a lot of complaints?
Sc,
The cookie cutter homes built in the last 5 years are nothing more than the name. I know many contractors and they all agree. The built these homes with 2 X 4’s not even 2 X 6’s. These fools from NJ & NYC are not educated on home designs & problems and they didn’t even know what super’s were talking about. The lehigh valley is a large swamp. The name Bear Swamp is given to Lower Macungie township, that’s where the largest number of these homes were and are being built. A 10 year old would have enought common sense to understand why you shouldn’t built there. The products used in building these homes are from Odd lots at the end of manufacturing runs. 10 years from now when the major home problems start, you won’t be able to match up shingles, roofs, siding because they don’t make them any longer. This NJREFUGEE is lost man, Our area is getting hit hard at the moment. We are the quintessential “BUBBLE MARKET”.
Perfect example:
Minor Street, Emmaus, PA. There is a string of rowhomes built in the early 80’s. They were selling 3 bedroom 2 bath townhouses from between 170-210 from 2004-2005. Prior to that in 2000 the averaged around 85-95k. In 2006 they were selling for 170 and that took 6 months to 1 year. The same homes are now selling for 149k and nobody is buying. These homes are going to sell for 120k and that’s about average. Currently one is for sale for 149k the owners lived there since the 80’s. The next door neighbor bought for 185k in 2006 and is asking 185k. Guess what if they 149k is getting no offers imagine what the 185k will do? Why doesn’t anyone talk about the 30% in foreclosures for the Lehigh & Northampton counties. Oh wait that doesn’t go along with the Bias & Lies the local newspaper won’t print. I don’t really care either way. I have owned my home for a long long time. It’s these fools who bought into this problem that’s funny. The average commuter is simply a blue collar worker from NJ who couldn’t afford where they lived & moved. The problem is they are getting burned with prices. If people simply moved to get lower home prices it would be a national trend. Instead it’s just a fools gold and when someone spends 3-5 hours a day on the road to get to and from work, it’s called STUPID. Stupid is as Stupid does and these commuters are going to bankrpupt the economy.
North Carolina still seems to be on the increase. Maybe because the market is still significantly cheaper than NJ but the gap is closing. It wont close even if NJ takes a 20% dive but its not the bargain it once was a few years ago. I would estimate that 2 years a NJ home was about 300% the cost here for new. I would say now its about 200%. What than means is a new house in jersey that would cost 750K 2 years ago was the same as a home here for 250K. Now the comparable homes to the ones that are 750K in NJ are about those that are around 400K now in NC. Still much less than NJ but when you could have tripled your worth its about double now.
Sales have slowed a little it seems in my area but like we began to see last year it wasnt because of demand it was because people had a hard time selling up north or in more expensive areas to be able to move to the area. Otherwise there is new going up all over the place still.
Thats North Carolina.
I do hear Tennesee which was booming for a bit has run into trouble and might be on a major decline. I think people may have run to TN because of the cost but didnt have anything lined up to capitalize on it.
что то не так у меня работает, если захожу в форум
я указываю всегда, чтобы второй раз логин и пароль не вводить ну там галочка такая
но иногда захожу сразу, а в некоторых случах написано что введите логин и пароль
почему так получается я всегда все делаю одинаково?
interesting analysis: if you look at the normal breaks of Sale Price % off OLP and DOM, there is a clear trend that every 30 days or so, a home’s sale price relative to OLP drops up to 5%.
for example, if a home is on the market for 30 days, it will sell for 0% off OLP; 60+ days: 0% – 5%; 90+ days: 5% – 10%, etc., etc. I have the analysis going up to nearly 50% off of OLP for homes on the market +200 days.
i can only imagine that in some little real estate training manual there is a table with a similar scale letting these used car salesmen know when and by how much to “sell” the seller on when an offer is on the table.
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the house looks dark and spooky like theres ghost in there scary .
the house looks dark and spooky
the house is neat and the ghost scars me why canti saystuff