“It will be the worst spring season…since the 1991 recession.”

From Reuters:

Subprime mess, supply to sour spring housing market

The flowers may be blooming this spring, but the U.S. housing market is wilting.

An unwieldy supply of homes for sale and significantly tighter underwriting standards from lenders, ignited by the rapid meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, will pave the way for the spring housing season to see the worst drop in sales and new construction since the early 1990s.

“I don’t see seasonal demand coming this spring because there is just too much unsold inventory and affordability is still too low,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, a consulting firm in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

“It will be the worst spring season in terms of percentage declines from the previous season since the 1991 recession,” he said.

In 1991, when the U.S. housing market was also hurt by the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s, home construction activity fell by half, and the same is probable this spring, he said.

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday it expects the median price of existing homes to drop this year, with its index of home values set to drop for the first time in nearly 40 years.

Surging defaults on subprime mortgages, which cater to borrowers with poor credit histories, and collapsing lenders are exacerbating the already precarious state of the U.S. housing market.

Tighter lending standards will also impact demand and put pressure on home prices, said Belsky, who sees housing starts down by 29 percent this spring versus a year earlier.

“Spring housing is going to be off dramatically from the highs of 2005 due to weak pricing and tighter credit,” Belsky said. “It is not going to be the hoped for recovery, it’s going to be a continuation of the correction.”

Torsten Slok, senior economist at Deutsche Bank in New York, expects data on housing sales and starts this spring will begin to reflect pressures from the subprime market woes.

“We are definitely expecting a continued drag on housing coming from the subprime issues, mainly as a result of increased foreclosures,” Slok said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

26 Responses to “It will be the worst spring season…since the 1991 recession.”

  1. Al says:

    http://www.examiner.com/a-671109~N_J__Governor_Injured_in_Car_Crash.html

    The essence of NJ traffic…

    On the news they have said that he had broken leg and minor head injury….

  2. njrebear says:

    NJ Gov. Corzine in car accident, leg broken

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070412/pl_nm/corzine_dc

  3. Glen says:

    huh, check out this article:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL1470530620070314?src=031407_1512_DOUBLEFEATURE_mortgage_troubles&pageNumber=1

    This dude is going to bail right out of the country!

    He definitely is not painting a pretty picture

  4. Clotpoll says:

    Was Carla Katz driving the other car?

  5. Clotpoll says:

    They should sedate Corzine and tape whatever he says.

  6. HEHEHE says:

    You mean he hasn’t provided Carla with a chauffer too?

  7. Clotpoll says:

    Fear not, all…Dick Codey’s back in the saddle.

    He should be appointed Acting Governor for anytime the elected one gets smacked by a car, decides to come out or abscond to Tierra del Fuego.

  8. Clotpoll says:

    I think I misheard that NJN reporter. Is there a reward for the driver of that red truck…or a reward for his capture?

  9. Clotpoll says:

    That red truck had “Goldman Sachs” printed on the side.

  10. Clotpoll says:

    Now Corzine knows how we feel when the tax bill comes.

  11. Clotpoll says:

    Corzine in stable condition…but no head injuries.

    Other than the pre-existing one.

  12. Clotpoll says:

    Corzine agitated…the hospital tried to hit him with a co-pay.

  13. Clotpoll says:

    Hey, is this an audience, or an oil painting? Please tip those waitresses…be here all week…try the fish…

  14. Clotpoll says:

    Too bad about Imus…another lone voice shouted down. However, it’s great to see Hillary piling on at the end. Classy.

    How’s about a little Dryden:

    “Neither is it true, that this fineness of Raillery is offensive. A witty Man is tickl’d while he is hurt in this manner, and a Fool feels it not. The occasion of an Offence may possibly be given, but he cannot take it. If it be granted that in effect this way does more Mischief; that a Man is secretly wounded, and though he be not sensible himself, yet the malicious World will find it for him: yet there is still a vast difference betwixt the slovenly Butchering of a Man, and the fineness of a stroke that separates the Head from the Body, and leaves it standing in its place.”

  15. still_looking says:

    Can anyone tell me the fate of 38 42nd st readington?

    thanks in advance, as usual.

    sl

  16. SG says:

    Recession fears blind investors to U.S. export boom

    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1241127620070412

    housing woes might shave about 1 percentage point off U.S. economic growth this year,

  17. SG says:

    Home prices rise despite housing woes
    The median in Southern California climbs 4.6% in March from a year earlier. Sales tumble.

    By David Streitfeld, Times Staff Writer

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes13apr13,1,922028.story?coll=la-mininav-business

  18. SG says:

    Mortgage crisis hits home in N.J.
    Home News Tribune Online 04/12/07
    By GINA VERGEL
    STAFF WRITER
    gvergel@thnt.com

    EDISON — A Joint Economic Committee report released Wednesday revealed that four Central New Jersey counties combined to be among the top 50 metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates in the country.

    Middlesex, Somerset, Monmouth and Ocean counties joined the Camden and Newark metro areas on the not-so-distinguished list put out by the JEC, one of four standing joint committees of Congress.

    “What we are facing is a tsunami of foreclosures,” said Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., who on Tuesday joined Sens. Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, to rail against a mounting subprime mortgage foreclosure problem.

    “Just a few short years after home ownership levels soared to record highs, the harsh reality brought on by unreasonable mortgages has come crashing down on millions of homeowners,” Menendez said.

    There were 10,075 foreclosures in Central New Jersey last year, according to the JEC report, which ranked the area 48th out of 50 metro areas on the list. This means 1 in 87 homes, out of approximately 877,000, faced or are in the early stages of foreclosure, said JEC spokesman Israel Klein.

    The report also said the number of foreclosures caused Central Jersey home values to decline by $3,153 on the average home, which they listed as $350,300.

    http://www.thnt.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070412/NEWS/704120439/1001

    Recommend reading the whole article.

  19. thatbigwindow says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    April 12th, 2007 at 10:39 pm
    Now Corzine knows how we feel when the tax bill comes.

    lol. Yeah, tell me about it!

  20. Jim says:

    Clottpol,

    Great posts, I could not stop laughing…I thought I was one of the few that was tired of getting screwed by Corzine and his taxes.

    Keep up the great work!!

    JIm

  21. BC Bob says:

    “This dude is going to bail right out of the country!”

    Glen [3],

    Does he have any room for passengers?

  22. BC Bob says:

    Clot,

    You were on fire. No results from a day of digging?

  23. Wesley says:

    Check out this crazy story of someone on $300 a week buying a $750,000 house:

    http://economicdespair.blogspot.com

    Foreclosures? It has only just begun.

  24. kyk2001 says:

    So will Corzine be getting a ticket too for not wearing his seat belts?

  25. Rich52 says:

    Wesley,

    Good article. I’m sure there are many that are in a similar boat. Only time will tell.

  26. Russ the Land Surveyor says:

    My work ara is Ocean/Burlington sown to the
    Delaware Bay. Most of this area has falling
    prices, and should because the appreciation
    was so induced. I am especially concerned
    about Cape May County, I think that area
    may be dropping 25% or more right now.
    Too many 400-800k houses up for sale with
    subdivisions still being started.
    In Millville/Vineland you can still get a
    new 2 story for 250k.

    There is actually one specific area thats
    been still going up, right around where the
    Thunderbolt Motorsports Track is starting,
    and its a great place to still make money
    or get a rental, but other than that its
    coming down and I think it is worse than
    the real estate and bank people say it is.

Comments are closed.