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I’ve posted this before, but I’m afraid that it might have gotten lost in some older threads.
I just wanted to thank everyone who has contributed. Your contributions have made it possible to move to a high-end hosting facility better able to handle the traffic that this site generates (and even higher traffic we’ll generate in the future!).
I could have never been able to justify the move without your contributions. Cheap hosting has always been cheap, and good hosting is anything but. You do, apparently, get what you pay for.
For the geeks, we’re currently running on VPS with pretty fat slice of a Quad Xeon. We’re in a data center that has got plenty of bandwidth, three big pipes out to the net (RCN, Level 3, Global Crossing).
Again, your support is much appreciated, by everyone here.
With that, I won’t bring it up again since it’s going to start sounding like PBS in here.
jb
From the Long Island Business News:
Storm clouds hovering over LI economy?
First the good news: Long Island added more than 11,000 new jobs in the first quarter of 2007 and unemployment is at a stellar 3.7 percent. As for the bad … well, do you have some time?
Local companies are struggling to fill all those new positions because young professionals are choosing to work and live elsewhere. The housing market is in a slump and with a foreclosure storm brewing, home prices will keep sliding. And gas prices crossed $3 per gallon, a level that usually leads to a pinching of pocketbooks. Thus consumer spending – and sales tax revenue – will take a hit.
Long Island’s economists aren’t panicking yet, but they are clearly worried.
First, housing. It was easy to predict a drop from 2004-2005 when home prices rose at an unsustainable rate, much like the dot-com stock market. So the slight fall in median housing prices isn’t a shock. In March, Nassau homes sold at a median $470,000, about the same as a year ago, while Suffolk’s median was $394,000, down slightly.
The bigger problem is in the subprime market, as 12 percent of Long Island’s riskiest borrowers are at least 60 days late on mortgage payments, up considerably from 7 percent a year ago.
“Our home prices were so out of line,” said Pearl Kamer, chief economist for the Long Island Association. “A lot of people bought more house than they could afford and that’s why we’re likely to see a continued decline. We haven’t seen the worst of this and the decline could last into 2009.”
From MarketWatch:
Hovnanian Enterprises Puts 2Q Loss At 30c/Shr, Ex-Items
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Friday said it expects to report a second-quarter loss, prior to the effect of certain land-related charges, of 30 cents a share, wider than the company’s prior guidance of a loss of between 5 cents a share to 20 cents a share. Hovnanian expects to incur about $15 million to $20 million of pretax charges related to land impairment and write-offs of predevelopment costs and land deposits in the second quarter. After the effect of these charges, the company expects to report a loss for the second quarter of 45 cents to 50 cents a share.
http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070504/NEWS/705040333
“Wallkill, it appears, never got the “boom is over” memo.
“There hasn’t been a tax increase in Wallkill in five years,” Supervisor John Ward said. “That’s number one.”‘
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/1-05042007-1340984.html
Tab….$2m
Keeping a running total on this, to the best of my ability. I’m thinking about sending an itemized list to Ways & Means, with a request for a credit off my ’06 1040 payment for my fractional share of the total cost of not having Congress put together a comprehensive immigration reform bill.
Oh, and don’t misread my post as being one a Dobbs UBERLAW
post.
I’m willing to support the new law either way, just not the societal cost of NOT having guidance.
“one LIKE a Dobbs’ UBERLAW posts.”
Hovnanian sees loss bigger than previously thought
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070504/hovnanian_outlook.html?.v=2
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. said on Friday its second-quarter loss would be bigger than it had previously expected, as the subprime mortgage crisis exacerbated weakness in the moribund home-building sector
Manasquan,NJ… a bit south for most on this blog… but does anyone know the area? Know someone that lives and likes/hates it? Year round?
Just curious.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. April nonfarm payrolls up 88,000, job rate up to 4.5%
Job growth was sluggish in April, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 88,000 in April, lower than the 100,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. This is the smallest increase in payroll employment since November 2004. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.5% in April from 4.4% in the previous month. This was in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings increased 4 cents, or 0.2% to $17.25. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain. Earnings are up 3.7% in the past year. The average workweek fell to 33.8 hours from 33.9 in March. Economists were expecting the workweek to remain steady.
From Bloomberg:
Hovnanian Posts Loss, Says Subprime Is Curbing Sales
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the sixth- largest U.S. homebuilder, reported a wider second-quarter loss than earlier forecast and said the subprime mortgage crisis is exacerbating weakness in the home sales market.
…
“The adverse publicity surrounding the subprime market has further damaged home buyers’ psychology, resulting in decreased demand and leading to continued use of sales incentives,” Hovnanian said in the preliminary earnings statement.
It gets worn out;
It’s the weather, subprime, affordability, migration, lax lenders, over aggressive fed, $ hungry wall street, yield chasing investors, asleep at the wheel regulators, fraudulent lenders, bucket shop mortgage brokers, uninformed realtors, greedy/clueless buyers. Mix it all up and you have a toxic bomb.
Can’t somebody step up to the plate and call it the biggest RE bust of all time. A bubble of historic proportions; right there with tulip bulbs, 1929 crash, 1987 crash, 2001 dot bomb. Make some room in the history books for a new addition.
From the WSJ:
As Market Cools, Home Buyers Seek a Way Out
In the latest fallout from the housing market’s decline, disputes are breaking out between builders and buyers who signed contracts for new homes and condos when the market was hot — and now want to get out of them.
Even as many of the new buildings are completed, buyers are filing lawsuits claiming they were duped into purchases they couldn’t afford, or victimized through fraudulent investment schemes. Some are scrutinizing their contracts looking for loopholes, or searching out tiny flaws in finished homes that might allow them to back out without losing their deposits.
For some builders, the disputes are contributing to cancellation rates as high as 30% and writedowns in some markets. “People will go to great lengths to get out of a legally binding transaction,” said Larry Sorsby, chief financial officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. “They were willing to ride the real-estate boom on the way up, but some are not willing to ride it on the way down.”
…
Other disputes are more heated. Red Bank, N.J.-based Hovnanian, one of the largest builders in the U.S., currently is embroiled in one such dispute with buyers in Florida.
One of those buyers, Daphne Sewell, received three construction loans, totaling about $750,000, to buy three houses in Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres, Fla., in May 2005.
An administrative assistant in Broward County government, Ms. Sewell said she and her husband, a carpenter, earned $90,000 a year at the time of the deal and never should have qualified for their mortgages. She also claims a real-estate firm involved in the deal promised that it would find them tenants to rent out the houses. But the renters never materialized, her houses are vacant, and two of her loans are in foreclosure.
“If I close on them I deplete my savings in two or three months,” said Ms. Sewell. “It’s worth the fight.”
After she was served with foreclosure lawsuits by the lender, she filed a countersuit, which names the builder, First Home Builders of Florida, the lender and a real-estate firm that she alleges promoted the deal, claiming she was defrauded by an investment scheme that promised minimal risk. A lawyer for First Home Builders said his client denies any wrongdoing.
…
Said Richard Schlesinger, managing director of Ceebraid-Signal: “I don’t think there is anything that we are doing that is inappropriate.”
“These are not situations where a woman bought a unit and she’s now a widow and can’t pay,” he said. “These are people who don’t want to close because they can’t flip and make $100,000.”
#2 – being from Long Island, I can understand why people don’t want to live there. My husband REFUSED point blank to ever move there, and I know other people who married Long Islanders who have said the same thing. It’s not just the housing prices, b/c clearly those are out of line in NJ, Westchester and CT as well. Nor is it just the taxes, b/c again, same thing. The issue is that it’s overcrowded – painfully so. Traffic is terrible. With the exception of certain towns, it’s just not that nice – and even the nice towns are just not as bad as the others – they can’t compare to places like the Bedfords and Greenwichs of the area. Sure, there are some really good schools, but there are good schools elsewhere too.
Poor Long Island. If it lost about a million people, it would be really nice!
“These are people who don’t want to close because they can’t flip and make $100,000.”
[14]
When the market cooperates, they are geniuses. They actually believe that they have become overnight RE titans. They even quit their full time jobs. Now, the market turns and they were abused. People stand up and take responsibility for your actions. You gambled and you lost. Not the first, nor the last time. Get over it. Stop delaying the inevitable. The faster the crap is discarded, the quicker the industry can get back on its feet. Where is that dance being held? Below sea level?
“These are people who don’t want to close because they can’t flip and make $100,000.”
Tough.. Eat sh*t and die.
NJGal, #15:
I’ve only been to Long Island a handful of times so I can’t comment, but some friends I know feel the same way as this website:
http://www.getoffourisland.com/
Off topic, I see the website in plain text like on a notepad. Anybody else has that problem.
I’ve only been to Long Island a handful of times so I can’t comment, but some friends I know feel the same way as this website:
http://www.getoffourisland.com/
That’s the funniest website I’ve seen in a while.
#15
NJGal,
I have relatives who moved to Long Island from Brooklyn in the 50s. They bought preconstruction in a development on the south shore and when they looked at their land before construction began, it was lovely with woods and farms all around. By the time they closed on their house, there were no more woods and farms around their neighborhood.
We live only 60 miles away from our relatives but because of the traffic, we rarely go to visit. It is the most stressful drive. Two of my cousins have moved off the island. One will probably move when her husband retires and I think the other one will go where her children live after college (they are both going to college out of state).
Off topic, I see the website in plain text like on a notepad. Anybody else has that problem.
What browser/operating system?
jb
IE 7/Vista. Never had any problems till today. Last checked the website y’day night. It was fine. All the other sites are fine. Just checked it using firefox, its fine.
Ok fanshawe, I almost wet my pants when I pulled up that site.
I don’t know if you realize, but that picture is of one of the infamous Hotti brothers – their myspace pages spawned a phenomenon – http://www.leehotti.com/ – this website does nothing but make fun of them. Yes, it’s a little mean, but some of it is hysterical. The best part is that I believe they’re from Yonkers or something.
Willow, my house is on land that used to be a huge farm. Half of the original farmhouse is still around the block (yes, half – don’t know what happened to the other half, but man it would have been a knockout of a house had it stayed whole). I can only imagine how huge the farm was. It’s sad what’s happened there.
grim,
I have the text of Schumer’s bill as an 11-page PDF file. His legislative aide just sent it via email.
Your email address?
jamesbednar at gmail dot com
“These are people who don’t want to close because they can’t flip and make $100,000.”
Of course. The smarter flippers (i.e. those who understood that there was a downside risk and were in a position to walk away from deposits) saw these deposits as a call option. Put down $10k. If the places goes up $100,000 by the time it’s built (not uncommon during the height of the boom), flip it and you just made a 1,000% return on your investment. If the price went down, walk away and forfeit your deposit.
The not-so-smart investors didn’t count on a downside risk and can’t afford to lose their deposit and now don’t know what to do.
grim,
done
you make it sound like long island is some kind of overcrowded crack house. sure there’s traffic but there’s traffic all over the tri-state area. try sitting on the garden state or nj turnpike during rush hour. long island has beaches, parks, the hamptons, the east end, the wineries, concert venues, golf courses, etc. it’s a pretty area. sure there are some crappy areas but that’s true anywhere. in regards to house prices and property taxes, once again the entire tri-state area shares the same problem. if you want to avoid these things move out of the area.
Renting,
Bingo. How about the zero down call? Most of them did not realize, they were also selling puts. What other market, ever, offered this type of leverage?
sorry to repeat… just want to see if anyone has an opinion about MANASQUAN, NJ.
Appreciate any thoughts/insights!
Thx,
curiousd
https://njrereport.com/files/bpa2007.pdf
NJGal, #24:
Yes, the infamous Lee Hotti. Still never fails to crack me up. I always thought, though, that he and crew were from NJ because the original thread on Sherdog that started that entire meme was titled “Pic of me and mah boys up in Jersey”.
This thing has got teeth..
1) It makes mortgage brokers fiduciaries.
2) Borrower needs to be qualified at the highest payment they might face within the first 7 years of the loan.
3) Determination of the ability to pay needs to be made based on documentation. A statement of income provided by the borrower is specifically disallowed.
4) DTI needs to be considered in the ability to pay as well.
5) Tax/Insurance escrow is required.
NJ Gal,
I know all about what you talk about. I am from LI (south shore) and my wife is from the Midwest. She basically told me point blank that she would never move to LI. It is a mixture of the people, the “Queensification” of Nassau county and the fact that it is an island and thus a pain in the butt to get off of it. Moving to NJ was tough since I still remembered all the negative stereotypes they pump into your head about NJ when you grow up in LI. In the end though, after many visits, I saw through all that and we fell in love with one area of NJ and are very happy here. My parents still give me grief when they come visit but even they are coming around. Now if I can only ever get used to these stupid jughandles!
If those are the teeth, this is a fang..
6) Qualification must be made based on a repayment schedule which achieves full amortization over the life of the loan.
jb
JB [34],
#2- Goodnight Irene, the fat lady has sung.
Regarding # 5. This was not required?
One note…The Schumer bill only applies to the purchase of a primary residence.
Keep in mind that this is only a proposed bill, right?. When it actually passes with these requirements, then I’d get excited about it.
JB, thanks for the site. When looking into hosting options, did you look at Amazon’s virtual computing services? It is pretty bare-bones but I imagine the uptime is good based on thier infrastructure. It is a very interesting idea, you pay by the minute that your virtual server is running, plus bandwidth and disk charges. Commoditized virtual computing is here.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/browse.html?node=201590011
Long Island is worse off than the other suburbs of NYC for two reasons:
1) because of the commuting situation. NJ has better access to Wall St and Westchester/CT have better access to midtown
2) it is freaking hard just to get off the Island at times. Westchester/CT/NJ don’t have this issue
Also– I don’t understand why local economists are freaked out that house prices are dropping (maybe I misread?). Seems fairly obvious that the long term health of the region depends on housing affordability coming back to reality
James Bednar Says:
If those are the teeth, this is a fang..
6) Qualification must be made based on a repayment schedule which achieves full amortization over the life of the loan.
The real fang is:
3) Determination of the ability to pay needs to be made based on documentation. A statement of income provided by the borrower is specifically disallowed.
If all the bill does is require borrowers to be quaified at the fully indexed rate but not require full documentation, then the brokers will just be puffing up the stated income of these loans to meet that requirement.
Fanshawe, I think you’re right – they do seem to say they’re from NJ. Which would only fit – I assume you’re a fan of MTV’s “I have a NJ Shore House” and Tommy? I can watch it over and over. NJ has its share of Lee Hottis too!
Richard, no one said Long Island didn’t have its nice parts. But you’re a NJ boy – you can’t speak as to living on LI (after all, it’s not the amazing Westfield). I lived there my whole life, in a very nice area, but the beaches, vineyards and golf courses do not make up for its other shortcomings. What you don’t seem to realize about traffic on LI compared to other areas is that Long Island has about half as many roads as NJ. Sure there are roads that are worse individually (the Cross Bronx comes to mind, and Route 17 has its moments) but on the whole, it is NEVER pleasant to get on or off of Long Island (except Sunday morning, before 9, in the winter – I can do it in 45 minutes!). And it never will be, due to limited landspace (same reason it’s infinitely more overpopulated than NJ and Westchester).
And no, don’t worry people – I’m not making the “they’re not making any more land!” argument. Which, by the way, isn’t so – anyone see the Today’s Show where Matt Lauer was in Dubai – they ARE making more land in Dubai – whole islands!
“Also– I don’t understand why local economists are freaked out that house prices are dropping (maybe I misread?). Seems fairly obvious that the long term health of the region depends on housing affordability coming back to reality”
Amen. I recall years before anyone really caught onto the housing boom that LI was ahead of the game in the ridiculous increas arena – my parents and their friends have been going on since the late ’90s that their children would never be able to afford to live on LI (which isn’t necessarily so, but to understand my town, there is no other town worth living in on LI to these folk).
I’ve lived on Long Island since I was six years old. I love it here and I don’t think I’d ever want to live anywhere else.
Obviously there are issues, but no place is perfect. LI is a lot like that Yogi Berra saying, “nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded”.
It’s tough to live here. It’s certainly not the most affordable place to be. Taxes are high and home prices are ridiculous. If I were 25 years old again and looking for a place to buy a house, put down roots and start a family, I’d probably think about moving somewhere else where I could afford a house without taking a second job.
I know more than a few younger people where I work who have packed up and high-tailed it out of here for some place cheaper where they can settle and put down roots. But that’s just the natural order of things. This is an island. There’s no place to expand out and the locations available to build new homes are limited. Some people will have to go.
As for me, I’ll be buying a home here some time late in the year. I can’t think of any other place I’d rather be.
“But that’s just the natural order of things. This is an island. There’s no place to expand out and the locations available to build new homes are limited. Some people will have to go.”
No, it’s not really natural though – what’s natural is that families stay together, whether in the same town or a few away. If this can’t happen, it’s going to be a very lonely existence for those whose families have to leave them behind.
I don’t understand why such a successful, cultured and affluent man like Richard — who lives in the always prosperous, valuable area of Westfield (just don’t mention the squalor of Downer Street to him)– wastes his time among the unclean masses like us who have but a tenth of the wealth and intellectual capacity as he?
I have to agree. I do feel guilty sometimes that my parents are not able to spend more time with my son. The distance is great enough so that we only see them a few times a month. I can see them moving out to us later on instead of the other way around. The lure of family is strong enough so that out of my 30 or so cousins, all except myself and one other have stayed either in Manhattan or LI. It is not easy to break out of that cycle and there are definite downsides. It stinks that we must make these types of decisions in life when children and grandchildren are involved.
fanshawe [46],
I’ve said it before. A king wears a crown. To me, a crown is strictly a hat with a hole in the middle. It’s sole purpose is to allow rain to pond on top of a brainless head.
You know Mike, we thought about NJ, but the difficulty of getting back and forth to our parents was the one thing that took it off of our list. I like NJ myself, but there just isn’t really a good route to LI from here, or to CT (where his family is now). At least you try to stay in touch though, and that’s what counts. Heck, I’m close to my cousins and they live in PA. If you work on it, it’s fine. I do wish I had lived closer to them, but oh well!
So, while my husband and I wait out the market to trade up to a bigger home, I have been happily watching the inventory on the GSMLS increase each day. I was wondering if anyone knew offhand what the “record high” for listings is historically?
BC Bob, #48:
I have to admit I have been looking in Westfield occasionally, but I might have to reconsider if Richard’s douchebaggery is typical of what I’d find in that town.
changing topics a little bit. A couple of days ago, there is a discussion about pre-payment penalty on mortgage loans. my impression from that discussion is that it is not allowed in NJ, but apparently, there is loophole around it that mortgage companies like countrywide can put it in the loan documents. Could anyone able to clarify?
fanshawe [46],
I know he riles up some of the others, and I disagree with a lot of what he says, but someone needs to say it.
A contrarian viewpoint is a necessity if we intend to have these discussions be something other than echo-chambers. It keeps us to some form of intellectual honesty in our assertions by forcing an examination of them, even if only to counter his. It would be a Housing Bubble Borg collective without him.
That being said, I think a number of Richard’s past assertions have been prima facie absurd.
NJGator,
Since 2000 (the earliest data I have from GSMLS), peak inventory was set in September 2006. The number was 24,115 for North Jersey as I’ve defined it. Don’t try to compare this number to the “front page” number. March 2007 inventory was 22,310, while off the peak realize there is significant seasonality in these numbers. March 2006 inventory was 19,208 for comparison. I expect the April 2007 inventory numbers (to be released shortly), to come in at 23,400 – 23,900.
While the page of inventory growth has been slowing, I expect to break through that record by June or July and set new records through September.
jb
For reference:
https://www.njrereport.com/files/SalesInvOverlay.xls
Can I jump in on the “Strong Island” bashing?
I personally refer to it as Galapagos Island, because it is so cut off from the rest of society. Especially in the last 10 years, it has really developed a bizarre in-bred sort of beligerent provincial mentality. There’s almost an arrogance you feel exuded by everyone. Seriously, WTF?
Pay ridiculous prices so my kid can talk with a heavy accent and think that attending CW Post is an achievement? South Shore / North Shore two sides of the same coin – one has money, the other has muscles – but the kids are the same
morass of mediocrity that only a realtor could love
jb,
my post is in moderation
Hidden footnote in the Schumer document:
8) TV cameras must be present as I pander to voters years after the mortgage industry has run wild, so I can capitalize on voter sentiment du-jour with after-the-fact legislation.
#57 stuck in moderation…
JB #53 – What does that front page number mean? It is currently at 33,076.
Props again for such a fantastic site. I’ve been reading daily for several months now and it is a fantastic resource!
I was just in the health food store in morristown, and there was a flyer up on the bulletin board looking for someone to take over the payments on their 4 bedroom house in Morristown before it is foreclosed on. I didn’t have a pen with me, or I would have written down the number and tried to find out where it is.
“Pay ridiculous prices so my kid can talk with a heavy accent and think that attending CW Post is an achievement? South Shore / North Shore two sides of the same coin – one has money, the other has muscles – but the kids are the same”
Hahahaha! Sorry, I know some folk love it, and I DO have a certain nostalgia for it, but I laughed anyway. I am south shore, though, and have no accent (although my sister does). My father was like a crazy man with his constant accent corrections – it drove him nuts. He prodded, made fun of it and drove mine sufficiently away. It still makes him crazy to hear my sister. No one in college knew where I was from.
Although if I had 40-50 million lying around, I can’t say I’d turn down a North Shore Gatsby manse on the water.
changing topics a little bit. A couple of days ago, there is a discussion about pre-payment penalty on mortgage loans. my impression from that discussion is that it is not allowed in NJ, but apparently, there is loophole around it that mortgage companies like countrywide can put it in the loan documents. Could anyone able to clarify?
From the APP:
Prepayment of home loan can be costly
Borrowers also are finding state consumer protection laws have fewer teeth today because federal banking regulations in recent years have superseded state consumer protection laws — even laws against costly predatory lending practices.
And a U.S. Supreme Court decision nearly two weeks ago gave further leeway to nationally licensed banks to bypass state consumer laws.
New Jersey regulators, who enforce the ban on prepayment penalties, have even weakened consumer protections themselves. They have let state-licensed banks and savings and loans levy prepayment penalties in order to help them compete for business.
…
State banking director Terry K. McEwen said that the state has a hard time forcing state banks and savings and loans to abide by the consumer protection laws for fear they will simply convert to federal charters, which would mean they would not have to follow state consumer laws.
…
Michigan fought to apply its state rules to the mortgage subsidiary of Wachovia Bank, a national bank. Wachovia balked, and the case went to the U.S. Supreme Court.
New Jersey and most other states backed Michigan in an attempt to enforce the state laws, but the Supreme Court sided with the national banks and federal regulators in its 5-3 decision April 17.
mifune, #54
I agree. Opposing viewpoints are valuable and necessary. Someone like Clotpoll I think is a good example of someone who brings intelligent thought and analyis without the usual NAR propaganda. Someone like Richard, not so much.
About prepayments and PMI..
It’s not too difficult to waive the pre-payment penalty if you read the fineprint and make sure you are not taken. Usually folks try to make prepayments to bring the LTV ratio below 80%. Now, with house prices falling and appraisals thoroughly scrutinized, not to mention unfair lender tactics, it just makes it even more difficult to avoid PMI.
Richard Says:
May 4th, 2007 at 10:47 am
you make it sound like long island is some kind of overcrowded crack house. sure there’s traffic but there’s traffic all over the tri-state area. try sitting on the garden state or nj turnpike during rush hour. long island has beaches, parks, the hamptons, the east end, the wineries, concert venues, golf courses, etc. it’s a pretty area. sure there are some crappy areas but that’s true anywhere. in regards to house prices and property taxes, once again the entire tri-state area shares the same problem. if you want to avoid these things move out of the area.
Reech: this post isn’t so off base – I just wanted to tweak a couple of things so that I am more comfortable with the contents
Here is my version:
Richard Says:
May 4th, 2007 at 10:47 am
I think Richard’s point of view is probably a lot closer to the majority of the homeowning public’s (i.e., the people from whom people like us want to buy houses) than some would like to admit. the blog would be worse off if he was chased away
Off Topic;
Cinco de Mayo and Mint Julips on the same day? Speaking of mint julips, I looked at tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby field. Lo and behold at 30-1 is Liquidity. How can anybody bet against Liquidity. I guess this is a must wager.
it’s fun reading this blog. i have the time since my investments work for me including renters like yourself paying my mortgage and putting food on my table. your bias, bigotry and self-righteous opinions on everything from the RE market to people is quite amusing. some here are more even keeled but entirely too many rotten apples.
I love this article from Inman News
http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=63080
Dealing with real estate lowballers
Mr. and Mrs. Seller, there are three ways to handle this situation. You can elect not to make a counteroffer or you can counter at full price. If you are so angry that you don’t want to have anything to do with this buyer, however, you could write a counteroffer over asking price.
I have used this script many times and had two sellers who did counter over asking price. What began as a very volatile situation became something that gave the sellers a sense of power. “We sure showed those buyers!”
>>Someone like Clotpoll I think is a good example of someone who brings intelligent thought and analyis without the usual NAR propaganda. Someone like Richard, not so much.
ignorant and clueless. clotpoll is one of you. wake up and read in between the lines.
I have a real estate question, that hopefully someone would be able to answer:
From a legal standpoint, from what point in the buying process do I, as a buyer, begin to have an obligation to pay a realtor a commission (assuming I have not signed any kind of agreement with the realtor) if I end up buying a house?
Does this obligation start when they send me the MLS listing? When they show me the house? When we make an offer?
(I am not looking to screw my realtor. I actually have not started working with one yet, but I just wanted to know more about what my ethical and legal obliations are as a buyer.)
>>It would be a Housing Bubble Borg collective without him.
sorry too late. seems many here have a hard time separating emotions from a message from an individual. no future politicans here.
And thankfully there are many Richard’s out there.
It affords me the opportunity to live for free, while the market plays havoc on those that were caught looking in their rear view mirror.
it’s fun reading this blog. i have the time since my investments work for me including renters like yourself paying my mortgage and putting food on my table. your bias, bigotry and self-righteous opinions on everything from the RE market to people is quite amusing. some here are more even keeled but entirely too many rotten apples.
Great post Richard.
make money, how goes the section 8 business?
Make,
Don’t want to exclude you. Also, kudos to you and those like you.
“your bias, bigotry and self-righteous opinions on everything from the RE market to people is quite amusing.”
Um, you just described yourself.
JB,
Please help me to understand the inventory graph you posted earlier. I am looking at somerset county. Say, on Mar 07, there was 2933 active and 280 sold. I would think that represent a 10 months inventory. Seems to me that one out of 10 houses was sold.
However, I am looking at Bridewater township, it seems “roughly” 1 of 5 houses was sold within a month after listing. I think I need some education on this. Thanks
007
#73 IMO (‘honest’ has lost its meaning thanks to honest-realtor) –
a realtor is supposed to show you a form that states the terms of his representation to the potential buyer. Like how dual representation is worked out, etc.. and he needs your sign off before showing houses.
However, in reality (again this is just my experience) most realtors (especially in NJ) do not make you sign anything or talk about the different kinds of representations before showing houses – lest you get scared from the process.
From a legal standpoint, from what point in the buying process do I, as a buyer, begin to have an obligation to pay a realtor a commission (assuming I have not signed any kind of agreement with the realtor) if I end up buying a house?
At no point during this process are you ever under obligation to compensate an agent, unless, of course, you’ve entered into some kind of alternate contract or agreement with your representing agent. The latter is extremely uncommon.
Should you purchase the house using the services of another agent, however, after the original agent showed you the house, the dispute would be between the two agents that represented you. If a dispute was brought before the real estate commmission, both sides would need to argue as to why they believe they were the “procuring cause”. Technically, the agent who secured/produced a willing, able, and ready buyer is due the commission from the seller. This isn’t necessarily the agent who presented the offer.
jb
What began as a very volatile situation became something that gave the sellers a sense of power. “We sure showed those buyers!”
What stupid advice. How about “grow up and treat it like the business transaction it is and drop the self-righteous sense of entitlement”.
If the offer is that terrible, just ignore it. Or maybe, be a little pragmatic about the situation and take another look at your asking price. Perhaps you are the one insulting buyers and the buyer is “showing you”.
it’s fun writing this blog. i have the time since my investments work for me including paying my rent and putting food on my table.
I was visiting friends in Wrong Island last weekend. Both (brother and sister) are physicians and grew up in LI. The elder one rents since she says it’s ridiculous to pay half a mill for a POS. The younger physician and his wife stay with his parents, since he said it’s the only way he can save for a downpayment. The guy is 33 years old and joked that the only reason most kids hang around LI coz they’re waiting for a house inheritance!
When physicians cannot be first-time buyers, there is a serious affordability problem.
How many people read this blog everyday? Thousands? Yet, the people who actually post on a regular basis here are may only be a dozen. One thing I can say is that as soon as somebody posts a contrarian view here, it gets treated like someone eating a rare roast beef sandwich and wearing a fur suit at a PETA convention. Everyone jumps on it and tries to stomp it out. All this does is make the people who do respond to it seem like radical extremists.
Yes, I believe we’re starting to see one of the biggest asset bubbles in history starting to deflate. I’ve given up debating with the other viewpoint though. All we can do is watch the data and see what happens. I don’t have time to argue at great length with some schmo who comes in here and says you’re all full of sh*t. It’s a waste and won’t change a thing.
#81, 82:
Thanks, guys, I really appreciate the responses.
I have bought investment property before, but I never really scrutinized the process as much as I probably should have.
From what I’ve gathered from your responses, that the buyer’s agent really starts looking for their piece of the pie once they show you the house? Can the mere act of emailing the listing to the buyer count as “procuring cause”?
x-underwriter Says:
May 4th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
One thing I can say is that as soon as somebody posts a contrarian view here, it gets treated like someone eating a rare roast beef sandwich and wearing a fur suit at a PETA convention. Everyone jumps on it and tries to stomp it out.
x: Come on, the people who get attacked are the ones whose posts are openly hostile to others or reek of being disingenous. Reech firmly falls in both categories.
You have troll-y pro-RE posts and you expect people to be patient? Most of the pro-RE is written in a provocative manner here.
clot is part of the LOD? Reech man – your straight faced trolling is going to be really effective.
From Reuters:
Home market took a costly subprime advance
While subprime lenders probably coaxed some consumers into the market prematurely, they also enticed some borrowers who simply were not fit to own a home, said Jack Guttentag, a former finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
“You can look at it from a perspective where you have a pool of potential homeowners for whom the chance of home ownership failure is high,” Guttentag said. “Ordinarily, lenders would not accept people who came out of that pool. The subprime lender said ‘We will accept these people.'”
While the share of subprime loans grew during the recent housing boom, so did the percentage of young borrowers.
In 1996, 18 percent of homeowners were younger than 25, according to the Census Bureau. In 2006, that share grew to 24.8 percent.
“We knew that we were borrowing forward by bringing in young people at ages that we had not seen in past years,” said Jay Brinkmann, an economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association. “We can see a decline in terms of future home buyers because we have brought forward a certain cohort of the age.”
(emphasis added)
mifune (54)-
That’s all good…but why can’t the (few) bulls here stick to statements of fact without resorting to trolling?
I get sick of providing counterpoint here seemingly all on my own.
That ends my pity party.
Didn’t we argue the same thing almost a year ago?
jb
chi,
I didn’t want to mention any names but I’m just seeing a lot of real estate on this site taken up by debating with the troll ‘o’ the day. Most of these people are bored and are doing it for entertainment, probably sitting at some silent open house, title, or mortgage company
NJGATOR & Fanshawe
James answered both your questions in much more detail than I would have.
NJ Gator
I have a spreadsheet using just the first page info, which is at best rudimentary but the answer is oct 2006 was the high at 32,749
We have beat that. James uses a precise SFH North Jersey counties only method. The front page includes rentals, land, business etc. and even some middlesex,ocean & pennsylvania.
Fanshaw,
At no point. ( explained in detail by Mr. Bednar)
KL
Reetard (72)-
Evidently, your reading comprehension is right in line with your writing skill.
Thanks for disavowing any association with me.
Reechard/makemoney= Beavis/Butthead
87 Fanshawe
NO!
Stop worrying – the agents are going to beat each other up – no you.
KL
no=not
fanshawe (87)-
“Procuring Cause” is entirely in the eyes and opinion of the buyer.
Agents would love to believe that e-mails, home showings and other duties performed are enough to establish a procuring cause argument, but it just ain’t so.
If the buyer chooses to purchase via another route, the “uninterrupted chain of events leading to a sale” is broken. Period.
rhymingrealtor,
Thanks, I understand that I would not be on the hook. I just wanted to know more about the particulars of how this part of the RE process works.
JB #82, I think when you sign in at an Open House, and don’t fill out a “buyer agent” name in the “Who referred you/how did you hear about this Open House?”, and then you buy that house, the listing agent will try and claim dibbs on you.
(At least I’ve seen that occur, not sure if there’s fine print on the sign-in form to support that legally.)
Thanks for the clarity, Clotpoll and everyone else.
Anyone have any comments on the Aberdeen / Cliffwood Area( not cliffwood beach). It seems like a nice little area where houses are reasonable…
any info on MLS#719290 Kendall Park zip 08824
Tx
This blog exists because of those who believe in financial prudence and economic fundamentals. Of course you’re going to get slammed if you present opposing views. The contrarian views here consist of: thanks for renting and buying my car, loser; renters missed the boat and you’re all jealous wannabes. Even as a homeowner I’ve got to say bullsh*t, I hope the whole f*cking thing crashes although I do feel bad for those who simply didn’t know any better. Maybe they should have known but that’s another discussion.
99% of those with different views here are trolls. Period. Ten times average salary for a POS, no-doc interest only loans, multiple flippers bidding like sharks attacking a carcass. Ridiculous. I can’t even dream about trading up and I have a bunch of equity. You people have the right idea; sit tight, save your money and wait until you can comfortably hack the payments with a minimum 30 yr. fixed. The rest are full of sh*t. All these lenders, realtors, appraisers and pretenders can rot.
as x noted [and Bost all day long] – this RE correction is a deliberate process – after 18 months, I am a little posted out – I openly admit that I am easier to fall prey to abject nonsense
to the blog – I’ve been OT too much – lo siento.
Just got the Daily Record this week in the mail and the headlines screams “SELLERS BEWARE: MORRIS HOME PRICES SLIP 3.5%”. Couldn’t find the article online. According to the article, 24 towns in morris county saw price declines. Prices are still climbing by more than 10% in 11 towns.
“According to a branch manager of Weichert Realtors, the slip in prices may be because more entry level houses were sold than usual; bringing the average down.”
curiousd..asked around on Manasquan (one used to be a RE agent; her shore house is a little South of there) to get the lowdown dirt, but didn’t get anything much. Don’t know if there are any weird things pending relative to real estate.
Basically, it’s a nice family town, more residential and not at all yuppie like Red Bank.
Consensus is that it’s better, definitely, than Red Bank. It has decent shopping nearby, and the traffic is not TOO horrendous, as long as you’re going against it on Friday and Sunday nights from the end of June until the end of August.
chi,
go home, have a few single malts, and I’m sure you’ll be back ready to post some more B.S. like me and the rest of the crew come monday
#108, I think you consider most of this to be BS because you are in the industry (wrong?) and you probably see all the nuances on a daily basis. RE is such a closed industry and only those in the profession are given full information – be it commissions, hidden mls remarks, etc.
For an outsider like me.. this blog in all its small bits, pieces and rants is very informative.
found the link for hte story
http://www.dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2007704230326
RentL0rd,
I absolutely agree. There’s so much info that goes through this site that even insiders learn something every day. Most of the people where I work (Chase Sub Prime) are pretty much oblivious to this whole thing. When I mention the info I pick up here, most haven’t heard it yet. Many B-C lenders have gone under so we’re actually picking up business. So, management acts like everything is honky-dory. I don’t know what we’re doing differently than any other lender out there so we’re not immune to this. I think our rise in sales is only temporary.
“as x noted [and Bost all day long] – this RE correction is a deliberate process – after 18 months, I am a little posted out”
Chi,
I feel your pain. After all, how many ways can you skin, slice and dice a dead cat?
Mint Julips for all.
Can someone with GSMLS access please give me the address for 2397452 in Millburn?
Thanks!
Somewhat off-topic and proabably only interesting to Clot. My significant other got approved today to lease a spot on Franklin Street in Chapel Hill! The proposal we put together to lease the space beat out four other businesses. He got the old Pepper’s Pizza storefront at 127 Franklin St and opening a Cluck-U Chicken.
I am very proud of him. He has sold his condo and leaving the practice of law to fry some chickens in hopes of a better quality of life. Now I need to decide if he is “the one” and if I will be moving down there with him.
#113-NJGator
I believe it’s 128 Myrtle Ave. Across the street from the Whole Foods parking lot.
Rachel, congrats to the SO, and I wish him well – Chapel Hill is a beautiful place and he’ll have a great life down there. My hubby hates being a lawyer, and I think he would love to do something like that. He can’t though – he’d eat his profits:)
dreamtheaterr
“When physicians cannot be first-time buyers, there is a serious affordability problem.”
I agree if this were true it would be a problem but most physicians I know make well over 300K and can afford decent housing even in LI.
Rachel (114)-
Stop wondering. A fried chicken stand on Franklin St. in Chapel Hill is tantamount to being given ten shares of Berkshire-Hathaway.
Any doofus can practice law. Only a man of true genius can dole out fried poultry to hordes of drunken, hungry college students.
If he’s down there alone, I’d buy the first plane ticket I could find and join him. The girls are especially good-looking this time of year (LOL!).
Cash businesses are the way to go. You have no idea how many of the people that own those fingernail places and convenience stores are buying $800,000 homes in Bergen county and putting $400,000 down with a stated income loan for the rest. If you can handle chicken grease all day, there’s probably an excellent financial reward at the end.
Rachel [114]
I know that area well. That’s a Wellspring and it’s been a goldmine for years. Plenty of commercial traffic on Franklin. I’d check out Wellspring’s Penguin’s cafe and see what they offer in the fried chicken line (and sides) because they will be fierce competitors, IMO. You can beat them on price; they’re expensive but good.
Otherwise, best of luck. Chapel Hill’s a happenin’ town and you can’t beat the cost of living, at least compared to Jersey.
Rachel [114],
Kudos to him. To hedge his futures costs, tell him to buy options/futures on corn. The chicks do have to eat.
Cash n’carry, baby! I’ve worked with several people over the years who own ice cream stands, pizza joints, nail salons, etc…just swimming in tax-free jack.
Makes me think I’m an idiot for doing what I do.
Clot,
Tomorrow, Liquidity at 30-1? You gotta love a horse named Liquidity.
Rachel,
And tell him to short Tyson. Make money both ways on those chickens.
“And tell him to short Tyson”
Clot,
I like that. The chicken straddle.
BC (123)-
Gotta love it. With a 20-horse field, a play like that’s as good as any.
Mayweather’s only an 11-10 fave to win by decision. Might have to dabble in that, too.
Pretty Boy’s making about a gazillion more bucks on this than Mayweather. Think Floyd’s gonna be a little irritated? And Mayweather’s already got a chip on his shoulder the size of Cleveland.
BC (125)-
I knew you’d hit that BP fastball.
Clotpoll Says:
“Any doofus can practice law. Only a man of true genius can dole out fried poultry to hordes of drunken, hungry college students.”
Especially between 2-3am after the bars close! There are 17 bars in downtown Chapel Hill. If the numbers are equivalent to the other stores in so-so towns he will be fine. We think Chapel Hill is a dream town and his location is A+. We are cautiously optimistic about the potential $$.
NJGal Says:
“My hubby hates being a lawyer”
He hates being a lawyer also and wishes he had never done it. I can’t wait to hear the reactions of the partners when he tells him he is leaving to fry chickens.
#31
Honestly, back in HS (early 90’s), Manasquan did not have a great rep. They have made changes though.
You can (try) build it up all you want, but its still has bungalow’s on the water w/a chain link fence.
PBF can’t be too unhappy about his payday, can he? Isn’t this $10 million his largest to date? In the end, he does have DLH to thank for that.
Pat (#107),
Thanks for your input on Manasquan. It might be a bit too far south… not sure yet… but can definitely appreciate the comparison to red bank.
Cheers.
NJGal, Rachel, what is the most that lawyers hate about their jobs?
long hours?
lying?
or just plain boring?
It has crossed my mind a couple of times to perhaps go to law school.. and my wife redicules me on that each time (she always wins the arguments)
chicago (#57)
LOL…
True.
clot, are you going to short GOOG when MS and YHOO marry?
#117 ADA, no physicians starting off after residency make $300K a year; they probably make half of that. And after a chunk of their salary goes toward paying down their student debt, it’s not much they have left to keep.
If we go by rule of thumb of your mortgage being 2.5x salary, $375,000 will buy a physician a dilapidated piece of dung in LI.
IMHO…another example of getting in at the wrong time.
KB Home, the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder, and Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. plan to build homes in Denver, their first project together in Colorado….KB Home’s latest development with Stewart comes as it and other homebuilders are in their second year of slumping sales. A glut of unsold homes on the market and troubles in the subprime mortgage industry are stifling demand for new houses.
http://www.azcentral.com/business/consumer/articles/0504biz-marthastewart04-ON.html
dreamtheaterr,
Well I guess it depends on the type of physician; several specialities including any surgical specialty easily make over 300 post-residency.
but your point about dilapted dung in LI remains valid.
*** Owner Has Real Estate License ***
I see that on many listings. What does that mean? They he is going to give the 2 or 2.5% to the realtor that brings in the buyer, but he/she can bring in the buyer themselves and not lose any commission money? Can a RE agent just list a house on NJMLS without a broker? I’m assuming not, since folks would just take the RE exam before selling their house, right? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?
Jersey4Life
JZY Lifer :)
Meaning he or she is selling the place themselves though a broker usually. AKA they are a flipper that wanted to get closer to the inside usually to get deals before they hit the MLS.
LI costs same as JZY with bad taxes, horrible traffic and commutes, higher insurance, and houses that to afford a starter cape you have to be 70 miles out.
Northpot high alumi!!!
“NJGal, Rachel, what is the most that lawyers hate about their jobs?
long hours?
lying?
or just plain boring?”
Maybe all of the above? I don’t work long hours, but I find the work boring – most people I know dislike the work AND work long hours, so that’s a double whammy; nothing you learn in law school will teach you about practice. There’s a lot of lying, mostly in the form of billing fraud, which the industry lives off of (although it’s not alone in this). It’s all very overrated. Some people adore it and think the practice is fascinating – I’m not one of them. My husband feels the same way. I do, however, have to say I work for great people – very nice, very unusual to find in this profession (they were all pumped about my baby – seriously excited, not even phased about me taking time off – that would NEVER happen at a big firm).
Not to mention that you take on huge student debt for a job that even starting at 160K a year is tough to pay off (and most people at big firms burn out after a few years – I have few friends left in them that started there). And you’ll never get rich doing it, unless you’re a plaintiffs’ lawyer and hit a huge case. Otherwise, compared to financial guys, partners even at TOP law firms make only a few million a year and for the hours they work, it’s not worth it (most partners work such hours and aren’t even that well paid). That is, unless for some reason you LOVE what you do. And like I said, I’m sure that’s possible – I just know very few people who LOVE the practice of law.
I forgot to mention the scores of douchey people you will encounter. People really feel pretty high on themselves when they have a law degree, as if they were some hot sh-t. They’re not. More often than not, you wouldn’t want to hang out with them in real life – imagine working all the time with them? I have a few good friends from law school, and knew some people I liked, but I would estimate that about 75% of them sucked – they had little that was interesting about them, and were focused mainly on how great they were to have gotten into law school.
My rant.
NJGal: Business school is a variation of what you say. So is working in investment banking and consulting. Scores of people that you would never ever want to come into contact, coupled with repeatedly needing to interact with them. It is like some bizarre high stakes high school experience. The part of B-School I enjoyed was second year after everyone had their offers. Finally, the patent nonsense diminished and people became civilized and friendly. It was a fleeting moment though.
I’ve met so many people from 1995-2001 and wish I could forget most of them. I learned a hell of a lot and made a lot of money – so I got out with my family and health. Good for me.
Well, that’s about what I’m looking to spend and I’ve seen plenty of nice houses here in that range. I must have missed the whole dung thing.
I see that on many listings. What does that mean?
I believe any seller who holds an NJ RE license must disclose it in the listing, whether or not they are representing themselves. Maybe KL or Clot can verify.
jb
Have a nice weekend. Wake up now. Get a house, rather than the blog!
Cochundra #142, where, in Brentwood?
It’s amazing how much Long Island and Staten Island are alike- bad accents, inbreeding, guidos, attitude problems. And of course, everyone’s favorite, traffic.
Oh and regarding doctor salaries starting out: My cousin is a neuro-surgeon. Practicing maybe 2 or 3 years. He says that even with a 300K salary, between student loans and mal-practice insurance, he brings home very little. So much for the big house. I guess it will take them some years to save for it.
OMG you guys have to see this craigslist loan ad:
http://cnj.craigslist.org/rfs/324531261.html
From MarketWatch:
Dominion Homes quarterly loss more than doubles
Dominion Homes Inc. late Friday reported a first-quarter net loss of $11.5 million, or $1.41 a share, compared with a net loss of $5.11 million, or 63 cents a share, during the year-ago period. The Dublin, Ohio-based home builder said the primary factors that increased the net loss on a year-over-year basis were an additional $3.1 million of interest expense and a $2.9 million tax benefit recorded in 2006 with no corresponding benefit in 2007. Revenue came in at $33.8 million, from the delivery of 165 homes, vs. $61.8 million, from the delivery of 315 homes, a year ago. Gross margin fell to 8% from 14.7%. Non-cash charges related to land impairments reduced gross profit by 4.4% during the quarter, the company noted.
What’s with all the hatin’ on Long Island? Do you Jersey guys have some sort of fixation? For the record, I rarely see a Guido, most people here don’t have accents more pronounced than your average Jerseyite and traffic isn’t any worse here than it is there. And hey, our Governor knows how to wear a seat belt.
As for UnRealtor’s question, I’ve been looking in Babylon, N. Babylon, W. Babylon and Lindenhurst. Look on MLSLI.com. There’s plenty of perfectly fine homes for sale in these towns for 375K or under and prices are dropping.
I mean, I only want a modest home, three bedrooms, maybe 1500 sq feet max. I’m not interested in a McMansion.
Actually EXACTLY in Brentwood, my friends K and S bought there 3 years ago. Or out in Riverhead like my friends E & A did.
Heck Mastic is now 250-300. And I remember when it was 80-100K houses.
Where is white trash like me supposed to live? :)
JB
Yes you are correct, if you hold a real estate license in the state of nj you must disclose this whether buying or selling real estate, it must be stated in the listing or in additional contractual provisions, on a offer to purchase/contract.
Clot can probaly tell you wether its a fine or a license loser, not sure on that one.
KL
I see that on many listings. What does that mean?
The meaning behind why you see it so much,is because these guys are also bagholders. They thought they knew it all, and you could never lose money in Real Estate.
KL
To answer your question, 149, it’s merely an expression of weariness at the NON STOP anti-jersey rants we hear from LIers.
It’s my experience that LIers don’t miss an opportunity to offer up gratuitous NJ put-downs. All the time. Every day. Especially if a jersey resident is in an ear shot. It’s almost pathological. You would think that it’s their mission in life.
And the great irony is that these put downs come from long islanders.
The even bigger irony is that they will pause their rants just long enough to move to NJ.
OT: Any good recommendations for brunch tomorrow in Westfield? [I kid you not]
NRNA
Blue Wave — for good seafood (they have other stuff too..)
Chi, I feel your OT pain. My rants of last week were OT related.
Re physician’s salaries? Oh. Please. Some specialties (radiology, anesthesiology) can make a mint. I know some pediatricians who are lucky to pull down 80K. I’m NOT kidding.
I’m in ER. We live with the in-laws while saving for a house and I only *just* finished paying off “modest” loans of 90K.
The tony Bergen suburb my in-laws settled in has us surrounded by lawyers, investment bankers, a judge, a radiologist (!), a bridal designer whose freakish house assessed at over 4.5 mil., an airplane parts company owner and a family who got a settlement from the Lockerbie (sp?) crash – read: rich.
I work. I’m not a member of the stay-at-home mom, card carrying Contemporary Club or Country Club attendee.
For what I pull down grinding 12 hrs seeing (usually) angry sick-as-sh!t patients in what we call “the Pit” — in my town I am still considered… well….
…poor.
sl
Chifi, be careful…. realtors might come to you while you’re eating, and ask if you’re interested in selling your house.
Talking about malpractice insurance for surgeons….. it’s absolutely unbelievable these days.
My brother finished his residency from LI, and moved to upstate NY since he figured with the cost of living, insurance and time spent in traffic in LI, he would work much less and bank more elsewhere. I’ve never heard him work beyond 4 PM ever.
Rent L (134)-
Nope. Gonna get longer GOOG. MSFT thinks they’re getting a Ferrari when they buy YHOO…what they’re gonna find out is that YHOO is an Edsel.
Best of all, MSFT only has 25B in cash. My guess is the YHOO deal takes 50B to pull off. They’ll have to find extra financing to swing it. I can’t wait until Gates & Co figure out they’ve borrowed money to buy the biggest piece of crap going.
Grim (143)-
Actually, the only place a licensed seller MUST identify himself as such is within the contract of sale with the eventual buyer.
Chi [154],
Yikes.
Doesn’t Hunter have more important things to do, like golf lessons?
Speaking of Yikes; Rangers. Ouch.
RentL (158)-
Just my .02 USD, but I think the play in search and pay-per-click has shifted to the people who feed the beast by providing bandwidth, streaming video capabilities, etc.
My faves (in no particular order): AKAM, LVLT, DIVX, APKT, RVBD, DRIV.
All disclaimers.
Clot [161],
Did your wife tell you to stop playing in the dirt?
NJGal thanks for the very candid response on the law profession!
I was thinking of patent law.. but it’s a thought that doesn’t stick too long – with two screaming kids and a scientist wife who brings peanuts home.
Clot, search is just catching up at the corporate level. I played with AKAM and I have friends in that company. Anything can happen with the pipe providers and it depends a lot on regulation (or lack of) – especially if the dems take over. Just my simple observations.
All this talk of Long Island “accents” is probably from people who have never seen the North Shore.
Town after town of big money — Roslyn, Great Neck, Glen Cove, Manhasset, Oyster Bay, Muttontown, etc, etc.
The taxes and commute still suck, though.
Subprime troubles remind me that capitalist pigs can sometimes cause unexpected problems..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animals_(album)
The giant, helium-filled pig seen on the cover was actually flown over Battersea Power Station for the photo shoot (under the direction of Storm Thorgerson). On the first day of shooting, a marksman was on hand in case the pig broke free. However, according to Thorgerson, this was considered an “insurance problem”, and he was not hired for the second day of shooting. Ironically, on December 3, 1976, during the second day, a gust of wind broke the pig free of its moorings. Because there was no one to shoot the pig down, it sailed away into the morning sky. A passenger plane reported seeing the pig, causing all the flights at London Heathrow Airport to be delayed. A police helicopter was sent up to track the pig, but was forced to return after following the pig to an altitude of 5,000 feet. A warning was sent out to pilots that a giant, flying pink pig was loose in the area. The CAA lost radar contact on the pig near Chatham in Kent, at a height of 18,000 feet and flying East. It finally landed in a farmer’s field (without much damage).
From the Baltimore Sun:
Once-hot condos get 1 bid
The auctioning of a large condo conversion project in Baltimore County drew a crowd of gawkers yesterday but only one bid – from the foreclosing lender.
The 508-unit Rodgers Forge Condominiums, an apartment complex near Towson, was in the midst of being renovated and sold as condos. It is one of at least three local projects owned by Triton Real Estate Partners that have been or are scheduled to be auctioned.
Twelve already sold condo units at the Rodgers Forge complex were not included in the auction. But several dozen condos under contract were.
BC (162)-
Not at all! Right now, if it doesn’t come out of the ground, it’s not for me (other than a chunk of long-held GOOG).
I look at other sectors, though…and wonder what I’d buy, were I to ever think about being diversified. The feeling usually passes quickly.
Asian nations to pool foreign reserves
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8OU58N00.htm
Asian nations took an ambitious step on Saturday toward pooling the region’s vast foreign currency reserves so Asia can weather financial crises like the one that battered the continent a decade ago.
Few are predicting an imminent meltdown like the one in 1997, but bitter memories of plunging currencies, austere reforms and a slow road to recovery have pushed a now wealthy Asia to better safeguard its future.
From Realtor Magazine, the history of the Crap Cod (aka “POS Cape”):
http://www.realtor.org/RMOArch.nsf/pages/ArchCoach200705?OpenDocument
May God strike me dead on the spot if I say any of this stuff to a client.
From HSH Associates:
Rates Start May on Stable Note
After weeks of weak economic news, the latest batch of data took on a more balanced note, prompting mortgage rates to balance as well. According to the nation’s deepest survey of mortgage prices, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose by a scant single basis point to 6.35%, while the still-popular 5/1 Hybrid ARM remained unchanged at 6.13% The average interest rate for a fixed-rate Home Equity Loan was unchanged during April, closing HSH’s national survey at 8.15%, while fully-indexed Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) nudged higher by four basis points to 8.76% for the month.
NJGal, Rachel, what is the most that lawyers hate about their jobs?
long hours?
lying?
or just plain boring?
It has crossed my mind a couple of times to perhaps go to law school.. and my wife redicules me on that each time (she always wins the arguments)
Wife wins all the arguments? Maybe she should be the one in law school..
:)
make money,
so, how do you “make money”?
SAS
I can’t stand “wrong” island.
awful & boring.
SAS
well, most of NJ is awful & boring too ;)
SAS
Chifi,
If you’re not in the mood for seafood, Isabella’s American Bistro at 39 Elm serves basic American cuisine. They have a Sunday brunch but probably offer breakfast servings for lunch on Saturday: pancakes, French toast, omelets, etc. The room is decently appointed, very family type place. The food isn’t exceptional but not pretentious. Worth checking the menu, and on a nice day like today they’ll be seating outside as well.
UnRealtor Says:
May 4th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
All this talk of Long Island “accents” is probably from people who have never seen the North Shore.
Town after town of big money — Roslyn, Great Neck, Glen Cove, Manhasset, Oyster Bay, Muttontown, etc, etc.
Unreal: my aunt and cousins live in Lake Success, Searingtown, etc. One of my cousins is beautiful and is a sound-alike of Fran Drescher. Husband is a dentist – great guy. Kids – ho hum. They never leave the Island. It pollutes their thinking and how they speak. Not entirely their fault.
I’d rather drive down the road to the Fish-n-Chips place.
#171, If I had it my way wifey would be a scientist, lawyer and raise my kids … and I wouldn’t mind being a bum at home ;-)
can you please find me the address of msl#713795
RentL0rd,
I can assure you there’s plenty to do at home if you have kids to keep an at-home mom or dad occupied.
Try it, you might like it. No bums need apply.
Does “wifey” approve of that form of address?
Zac [177]
The Chippery in Scotch Plains is pure artery-clogging delight. Regrettably, at my age I must limit my visits to no more than 2 or 3 x per year.
2x shy .. u misunderstood
Treasury Yield Curve Inverts Amid Signs Inflation Is Moderating
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abWCqJXxfReg&refer=home
snippet from breakoutwatch weekly newsletter:
Economic news was mixed but was still viewed as positive by the markets. The Institute of Supply Management reported higher than expected growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors while the prices paid component was higher, bringing into question the Fed’s ability to lower interest rates as inflation fails to come down. The jobs created report on Friday revived the possibility of rate cut later this year with far fewer jobs created in April than in March. The market’s collective wisdom, as reflected in higher stock prices, is that the economy will indeed experience a ‘soft landing’ this year and the Fed will stimulate with a rate cut later in the year. The ‘hard landing’ protagonists see the latest job numbers as the long awaited proof of their theory. Their argument is that the housing construction decline has not shown up in the unemployment reports so far because the layoffs have been among undocumented workers, but the latest numbers show that the layoffs are now affecting legal workers. They believe that full employment has supported consumer spending but that will soon decline as job losses spread and employment risk is more evident. They also note that credit card debt is rising as homeowners can no longer extract cash from their homes and that this cannot sustain consumer spending indefinitely. The doomsayers argue that we have been living inside a bubble that is about to burst. Our sympathies are with the hard-landing camp, but the resilience and adaptability of the US economy can’t be underestimated.
from breakout watch newsletter –
Economic news was mixed but was still viewed as positive by the markets. The Institute of Supply Management reported higher than expected growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors while the prices paid component was higher, bringing into question the Fed’s ability to lower interest rates as inflation fails to come down. The jobs created report on Friday revived the possibility of rate cut later this year with far fewer jobs created in April than in March. The market’s collective wisdom, as reflected in higher stock prices, is that the economy will indeed experience a ‘soft landing’ this year and the Fed will stimulate with a rate cut later in the year. The ‘hard landing’ protagonists see the latest job numbers as the long awaited proof of their theory. Their argument is that the housing construction decline has not shown up in the unemployment reports so far because the layoffs have been among und0c_m3nted workers, but the latest numbers show that the layoffs are now affecting legal workers. They believe that full employment has supported consumer spending but that will soon decline as job losses spread and employment risk is more evident. They also note that credit card debt is rising as homeowners can no longer extract cash from their homes and that this cannot sustain consumer spending indefinitely. The doomsayers argue that we have been living inside a bubble that is about to burst. Our sympathies are with the hard-landing camp, but the resilience and adaptability of the US economy can’t be underestimated.
jb, please whitelist the word undoc_m3ted
and this is the last line of the newsletter –
Be agile, let the trend be your friend, but but be ready to bail when the bubble bursts
emphasis added by me
Lean and Mean: 150,000 U.S. layoffs for IBM?
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2007/pulpit_20070504_002027.html
The IBM project I am writing about is called LEAN and the first manifestation of LEAN was this week’s 1,300 layoffs at Global Services, which generated almost no press. Thirteen hundred layoffs from a company with more than 350,000 workers is nothing, so the yawning press reaction is not unexpected. But this week’s “job action,” as they refer to it inside IBM management, was as much as anything a rehearsal for what I understand are another 100,000+ layoffs to follow, each dribbled out until some reporter (that would be me) notices the growing trend, then dumped en masse when the jig is up, but no later than the end of this year.
Buffett: Subprime problems not big economic threat
Reuters: – Warren Buffett said on Saturday problems in the U.S. subprime lending industry were unlikely to pose a major threat to the overall U.S. economy.
More at: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0542541620070505
hoodafa (188)-
Not to claim his brainpower or ride his coattails, but I’m with Buffett on this. I think the subprime blow-up will be contained at some point in the shallow end of the Alt-A sewer. At worst, maybe we get to 15-16% default on all subprime thru Alt-A stuff; but, any way you slice your tranches, not everyone in America is an over-leveraged, moments-away-from-the-poorhouse debt sponge. It behooves us all to remember that not every homeowner in America bought in ’05-’06, and there are plenty of folks out there who have (unstripped) equity in their homes. If this story had legs and momentum, I think Act II would’ve come hard on the heels of Act I…and it hasn’t.
Much more troubling is the sense I get that subprime is now becoming everyone’s poster child/whipping boy/proxy for the underlyling fundamental weaknesses that continue to plague the housing market. And…those weaknesses begin and end at the utter failure of the starter home market. As several economists have theorized, the easy credit of the past few years has both “brought forward” scores of young buyers who would’ve otherwise entered in later years and driven entry-level prices to a point of complete unaffordability. This, in turn, has created a logjam that echoes all the way up the housing price chain. In fact, it’s so bad, the chain has almost ceased to exist.
To the extent that all involved continue to point at subprime as the beginning and end of the housing dilemma, the basic challenges to the market will continue to fester, unaddressed.
And- to paraphrase Ross Perot- that “big sucking noise” coming out of NC will be all our educated young people, moving out, moving there and moving for good.
Buffet Warns of Dangers of Derivatives
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117837833996593416.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
Billionaire Warren Buffett repeated his warning that the growth of derivatives and excessive borrowing by traders, investors and corporations will eventually lead to significant dislocation in the financial markets.
In fielding a question about derivatives, which he once referred to as “financial weapons of mass destruction,” Mr. Buffett told some 27,000 shareholders at the annual meeting Saturday of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. holding company in Omaha that he expects derivatives and borrowing, or leverage, would inevitably end in huge losses for many financial participants.
from (188)
Earlier in the meeting, Buffett said the U.S. housing downturn was hurting results at Berkshire’s residential construction businesses.
Clotpoll,
I’m not sure what NC is going to do with all those young people from Jersey. Not like the current strong labor market will last forever.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/05/news/newsmakers/buffett/
But Buffett had a decidely different view about the housing market. He said too many homes were bought by people carrying mortgages with little or no money down who then hoped to flip them quickly for a profit. “The housing market is sick and it’s going to stay sick for a couple of years” he opined.
Does anyone know of a company in NJ that will dissemble and remove an above ground pool?
One of my relatives wants to get rid of one.
Years ago, he got mailers for pool removal companies, but now that he’s looking for one, he hasn’t been able to find one.
twice shy
I agree the “fish and Chips” as we call it in Scotch Plains is GREAT the fish melts in your mouth. Its a real “greasy spoon” kind of Place.
I live in scotch plains and we visit religously on Fridays during Lent (we are not allowed to eat meat)
If you want true fish & chips, you have to visit, Argylles, in Kerney, forget ‘fish and chips in S/P, True Frozen food.
jerseygirl,
Well down the shore everything’s all right;
http://www.thompsonsfishnchipsofkearny.com/
KL?
suzie,
You beat me to the punch.
Just made a donation. Sorry it took so long. I can’t tell you how invaluable this site has been.
On another note, we saw a loft space yesterday we fell in love with. The view is just unbelievable. Unfortunately, we don’t have nearly enough saved for the downpayment (coop building). So it looks like we’ll be out of the game for a while longer until we’ve saved some more or until we find the winning lottery ticket-whichever comes first.
From NorthJersey.com:
EnCap’s financial stability questioned
Only 18 months after getting the biggest loan New Jersey has ever awarded a private developer, EnCap is facing financial problems that supporters say could hobble its sprawling golf-village project in the Meadowlands.
State documents reviewed by The Record show that, since January 2006, EnCap’s insurance company has denied $5.5 million in payments to contractors because invoices were poorly documented or submitted for unapproved work.
…
At the end of last year, EnCap had to secure a waiver from its bankers on a $10 million payment deadline, just weeks after state officials rejected the company’s bid for another round of public support — $366 million in proceeds from bonds backed by future property taxes.
EnCap had no comment on its financial picture. State officials would say nothing beyond that the project was not currently in default.
Seller’s mindset:
I made an offer on a SFH that is in line with 2004 pricing, that is, 15% off the asking price.
Seller has significant $$$ in equity but chose not to counter-offer and “is going to wait for a better offer”.
I started to sob, my knees got weak, my heart was pouncing….from joy, because my offer was still too high. It did, however, give me insight on seller mindset.
Inventory is up 1.5% from last week to a record. The housing demise last arrived. No even Hoboken is getting any action. Anybody wants to buy a house?
“Not Hot Just Yet, but Newark Is Starting to Percolate”
I think NYTimes writers are on drugs bought in Newark. Who would want to live under a sign that says “Help wanted. Stop the killings now”?
How much of hit is David Lereah going to take since he now has to sell and move to CA? He bought the house recently, I think just last year.
BC
All I can say is, spell it right please.. its Kearny, and pronounced Carnee, not Kernee.
Sheesh (-:
Ever famous for Fish& Chips, Satriellas, and now a dead dentists stuffed in his trunk.
KL
Re posts 10 and 31:
(sorry this took so long curiousd, and I also apologize if it repeats any earlier answers)
Manasquan is a quaint (i.e. overpriced) whitebread shore town. To get anything other than an overpriced POS you are probably talking $700K minimum, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of disappointment in what you can get at that price.
Being at the bottom of Monmouth County it is in the Southern Monmouth MLS, here is the url for the three county MLSs:
http://tinyurl.com/2r2gsd
It does connect to NYC by train, but I think the ride would take close to 2 hours each way.
Haven’t been to the beach there in a while, but the sand replenishment project widened the beaches alot from when I was a teenager.
I’m sure GG’s is still there and Leggets is always going to be there.
About Newark
1. Lots of people who rent
2. Lots of multi family homes
3. Near Rutgers Newark who has the cheapest NP program in the area.
I am not seeing a downside to buying a 4 family with a +P/E ratio and work 20-30 hours a week as an RN and do my Masters with the tennants paying for my apartment.
I really do not want to be a landlord but even the money people in fort lee are turning garages into “Mortgage Helper” apartments.
Am I missing something again?
“All I can say is, spell it right please”
KL,
I knew you would notice that. Who’s the dentist??
Orion [202]
“Seller’s mindset:
I made an offer on a SFH that is in line with 2004 pricing, that is, 15% off the asking price.
Seller has significant $$$ in equity but chose not to counter-offer and “is going to wait for a better offer”.”
Ditto here, except my offer was 22% off asking as the property is overpriced. Same result. All parties were cordial all around–seller, buyer, listing agent–and no hard feelings. I’m sitting tight and will continue to monitor. The listing is still fresh. If another buyer want to overpay it’s okay with me.
#80
007:
I have been looking in Bridgewater area too. In the last 2 months I have seen a lot of houses in above 500K range selling fast ( average 2 months DOM). It seems that until end of last year nothing was moving and then wham, everything started selling. Strangely, neighbouring Branchburg is not selling that quickly. I have decided to wait until Fall before I start looking again
207/lindsey, thanks for input! feel the same about brielle more or less if i can ask?
Seller: “is going to wait for a better offer”
These sellers are wishing for more money in one hand, and taking a crap in the other.
Whinch one will happen first?
SAS
BW Renter: Selling and closing are 2 different towns. 12 houses in one of the towns I am following went under contract between middle of March, to end of April.
5 of those 12 have come back on the market in the past 10 days.
I’m looking at homes in Montclair. Does anyone have any thoughts as to how homes in Montclair will sell vs. their listing price this spring? While many have declared that we are now in a buyer’s market, I wonder if that really applies to homes in the 650K-800K ranger within the immediate vicinity of NYC. Is Montclair a buyer’s market still? Are new construction homes their listing too high? Any feedback is welcome.
“Kearny, and pronounced Carnee, not Kernee.
I’ve always thought it was pronounced Keer-nee.
” work 20-30 hours a week as an RN and do my Masters with the tenants paying for my apartment. … Am I missing something again?”
Add these to your list from #208:
4) Tenants who don’t pay the rent.
5) Cleaning up pools of blood on the sidewalk.
6) No one willing to buy when you’re ready to sell.
“While many have declared that we are now in a buyer’s market”
Only realtors, and idiot consumers who listen to them, think we’re in a “buyer’s market.” It’s no “buyer’s market” when prices are only 5 to 10% off a 100-year high peak:
http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
That said, some new listing are coming on the market priced at 2003 prices, but most sellers are still in 2005 La La Land.
In “high end” towns, I think we’ll start to see more sellers who have to sell, because they over-bought 2-3 years ago banking on the easy 10% annual appreciation, which didn’t happen. They’re in over their heads, and won’t hang on long term.
The plan for many was to buy as much house as possible, and ‘flip’ it 2-3 years later at tremendous profit. That’s not going to happen, and they’re now stuck with paying for ‘as much house as possible.’
I have a solution for Newark but in this country I would be called a racist and elected a president in France.
“While many have declared that we are now in a buyer’s market”
These so called “many” are fools or people with RE interests and don’t want to bite the hands that feed them.
Its not a buyers market, and won’t be for some time. THIS MARKET IS STILL OVERVALUED.
Don’t be fooled to believe that its a buyers market.
SAS
007 and BWrenter,
I’ve also been watching Bridgewater. The homes selling under $600K either need a lot of updating, are small, are on a busy road, or a combination of all of the above. I think this range is selling because there are many still out there asking for more $ making the under $600K market seem like a deal.
I’m heading out to do the Bridgewater open house circuit now…
“Buyer” and “seller” markets are no more than buzzwords spouted by people who chronically misread all types of RE markets.
How in the world can it be a “buyer’s market” when 70% of the people who would like to purchase a home cannot…because they’re unable to sell their current home? The “property chain”- which gets mentioned here from time to time- is broken; and that’s the real damn problem, not some oversupply of buyers and sellers.
A constant attempt to gauge whether buyers or sellers- in gross- have some sort of illusory upper hand is a waste of time and ignores the subtleties of RE markets. It’s much more important to assess: a) where the opportunities are in any given market, and b) who is best-prepared to take advantage of the opportunities. If you don’t believe there are opportunities out there right now, please go back to sleep. Moreover, new and different opportunities will arise…even as the market continues its steady decline.
Both the typical LOD bunker-dweller and the Pollyanna Realtor are guilty of this fundamental misreading. Both mindsets operate from the assumption that there are- or will be- magical points at which buying and purchasing decisions can be optimized (hence their frenzied pronouncements that “it’s a sellers market!” or “it’s a buyer’s market!”). By thinking in simplistic terms, neither camp engages in the more subtle analysis required to make smart RE decisions. The LOD believes that someday- hopefully soon- prices will bottom, financing will be cheap, and the sun, moon and stars will align in indication that it’s finally time to buy. The Pollyanna Realtor believes that ANY time is a good time for ANYONE to buy or sell, ignoring the fact that there are never times at which opportunity exists for EVERYONE who considers buying or selling. The constant in these two seemingly different points of view is their common presumption that what, in fact, are rare and extreme market occurrences should- or will- become commonplace.
Post 208
“Am I missing something again?
Yes, Newark is not Fort Lee. I work in Newark by the University Heights section. Sure it’s nice and safe during the day but a night, I hope you have a permit to carry.
I was walking out of the building two weeks ago and there was a gentleman handing out flyers with a very nice apartment for rent. I chatted with him for a bit and asked him how the rental market was doing. His reply “if it was so good I wouldn’t be in front of your building handing out flyers. Enough said.
MISERY 2008.
EITHER ACCEPT IT NOW ADJUST TO REALITY OR GO DOWN WITH THE SHIP.
HEHEHEHHEHEHEHE!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
THIS IS NOT A BUYERS MARKET YET!
It’s payback time baby…
Bleed’em dry!
No MAAS To high monthly slave payments.
If you want more get a second or third. Want to retire? work several more years.
Parties over the hangover is here.
Accept it now or go down with the ship.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Clot [222]
“How in the world can it be a “buyer’s market” when 70% of the people who would like to purchase a home cannot…because they’re unable to sell their current home?”
Clot, for me that’s one definition of a buyers’ market, i.e., more sellers than buyers, growing inventory as people try to sell, either to finance a trade-up, relocate or separate. Also, I think affordability is a problem as house prices are still at or near historic highs, and lending standards are tightening. I just don’t know how young families can afford starter homes from $400-$450k in a decent town, with property taxes on top of that, even with two incomes. How do they come up with even 10 or 15% down when they’re in their early to mid thirties?
I would characterize the market as soft. I think the high-end, $1 M + is glutted. There are values and opportunities to be found and I’m looking for them every day, but they’re scarcer than the proverbial hens’ teeth. Even if you find one, chances are it’s still overpriced by at least 10%. Most sellers still are not willing to make concessions. The question is who can hold out longer, buyers or sellers? As an agent, maybe you have an insight into that.
BC
#209 I just sent you article via email.
KL
Tight credit shutting out house hunters
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8OV1E7O0.htm
Deborah Beatty recognizes that she and her family could lose their home in Jersey City, N.J., across the Hudson River from New York, because they can’t afford the mortgage. The newly constructed three-level home offers a view of the Manhattan skyline and the Statue of Liberty from Beatty’s master bedroom window.
“I’m going to miss that,” said Beatty, 53, who collects disability payments and does not work. “When I come in, I like to see the lady (the statue), especially when it’s a beautiful clear night.”
Her 29-year-old daughter, a graduate student with an annual income of less than $20,000, qualified for a mortgage of $600,000 with no money down, split into two different loans at 8.75 percent and 12.5 percent interest rates.
“It’s embarrassing,” Beatty said. “It hurts your pride, your respect.”
unRealtor, and nwBergen
I might have my problems with the insane prices and racial tensions, and economic attitudes of of Fort Lee. ( The descriptions of law school people seems a close match ) But you both are right one of my clients keeps trying to convince me that Newark would be a good choice to move down and finish school there. Nice lady but I don’t think I am tough enough for the area or to deal with the tennants. ( Or a landlord anywhere )
And you joke about a permit but carry permits are hellishly hard to get in NJ. Of course you could move to PA which is a class 3 state. But I am not much of a gun fan to begin with.
Heck I really want a 200K 1000sqft starter cape on a small lot. Right now I will stay where I am.
buyers market, sellers market, whatever market..
If the number of transactions are dwindling down its NOT a market – neither for sellers nor buyers.
Maybe we should call this a suc_kers market
“Her 29-year-old daughter, a graduate student with an annual income of less than $20,000, qualified for a mortgage of $600,000 with no money down, split into two different loans at 8.75 percent and 12.5 percent interest rates.”
How did this get processed?
How did they think they could afford the note?
20K = 400 a week about before taxes or about 10 dollars an hour. Or 320-340 a week take home.
1200 a month, that note has to be for more than that!
I woke up this morning
W/ the open house blues
It has nothing to do w/
last evening’s booze
No, It’s the fear
that I’ll be here alone
thinkin of last year
I let out a groan.
Oh how things change
in such a short time
But on the bright side
I have time, to rhyme !
Once again for your entertainment
KL
Clot
Your comment 222 goes into my very good point made by clot folder.
KL
KL :)
Can anyone with MLS access tell me something about #2361773 (Bloomingdale Boro)?
Specifically, I am looking for # DOM. Friend just went to the open house and the realtor is telling her that the owner is willing to negotiate at 25% below asking price which seems a bit odd… but I am interested nonetheless.
Thanks in advance!
wondering why construction jobs are showing strength in the latest employment reports?
read below-
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/05/birth-death-model-fatally-flawed.html
“IRS kicks homeowners while they’re down”
“For homeowners around the country who are seriously delinquent on their mortgages and hoping for relief, the IRS has bad news: If your lender agrees to modify your loan and forgive any part of your debt, you could owe federal income taxes on the amount forgiven.”
“Proposed new, bipartisan legislation on Capitol Hill could soften some of the impact on financially stressed homeowners, however. The Mortgage Cancellation Tax Relief Act of 2007 (HR1876) would amend the tax code to exclude debt forgiveness on principal home mortgages from treatment as income.”
http://www.mercurynews.com/realestate/ci_5812817?nclick_check=1
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
According to BLS, you cannot subtract 88K from 317K (birth-dead model adjustments) because the employment numbers are seasonally adjusted while the birth-death adjustments are not seasonally adjusted.
Including seasonal adjustments, i feel the total adjustments will be more than 88K indicating a net job loss in April 2007.
bear [236],
The new birth/death model is a joke. It’s a blackbox that has many scratching their heads. I would pay more attention to a private forecaster. The ADP #’s indicate that there are major problems on the horizon.
This Spring Market I believe will finally make people realize the ball game is over.
There are some reasonable listings out there now, not alot, but definitely off the highs.
As this season trudges a long, I be;ove theholo outs )those who belive it is still 05), will finally come to the realization that the party is over.
Come 08, I believe that we sill start to see the real values in the market, with the best values probably late in 08, and begining of 09.
Look if we did not have all the nonsese we had with I/o and all the other toxic loan and loose lending standards, the correction would have started in the Fall of 03.
That craziness prolonged and expanded the bubble, which nobody saw coming at the time.
Bob,
Who comes up with these models? :)
From historical adjustments, it looks like Jan and Jul usually take the brunt of negative adjustments while April adjustments are on the high positive side.
http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdhst.htm
#236 Perhaps Commercial real estate?
2x shy (226)-
Yes, affordability is the crux of all this right now. I just think it’s overly simplistic to go straight to the black-and-white analysis of seller vs buyer markets.
No doubt the buyer side has the momentum and legs to wait things down into their range. Today’s sellers just don’t know that yet.
Here is a house that was on the market for 183 days and then the listing expired. They put it back on the market (GSMLS # 2360266) and it’s been 121 days. There was an ad in the paper that said they got the taxes reduced to the current asking price. I guess you can get it reduced less than the 15% I thought was the minimum because their taxes were reduced from $435,200 to $409,000. This saves a little over $500/year in taxes on this house. I’m thinking we’re going to see more people doing this when their house won’t sell anywhere near the tax assessment.
What? From Lereah? Am I reading this correctly?
“I’m projecting the first [nationwide] price drop since the Great Depression,” he said. “We’re going to have negative home prices in 2007.”
“It’s easy to say with 20-20 hindsight,” he said. “We’re all partly guilty. But the lenders and the speculators, they had the most in it. Making zero down payments with no documentation, that’s just irresponsible.”
“I am going to say, look, guys, we all have to face the music,” Lereah said. “We strayed from [economic] fundamentals, and we’re paying for it. It’s not an all-out bust, not a crash in real estate, but it is a recession. This is going to cleanse the markets and in the long term this is what we have needed.”
“We’re going to scrape this bottom for the next quarter or two. [The market isn’t] going to come roaring back soon. It will take a couple of years to get back to the heat.”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0705050112may06,0,848236.story?coll=chi-business-hed
Sorry, did not realize this [245] had been posted.
bbb(240),
Commercial real estate investment is about 35% of total private real estate investment. Residential makes up the other 65%.
Construction jobs were supposed to take a dive in March & April as construction completions started to peak. This is very well documented by CR.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RiUBuw5b8rI/AAAAAAAAAZ0/q5YCt7wczoA/s1600-h/starts+completions+employment+0307.jpg
Can anyone please let me know if MLS# 2397656 is under contract………….thanks in advance
Northern NJ Real Estate on TV tonight:
“Bought & Sold” – HGTV @ 10:00PM
http://www.hgtv.com/hgtv/shows_hbas
“Her 29-year-old daug hter, a graduate student with an annual income of less than $20,000”
A student has no business buying a house. Why would they buy a house when their income should increase atleast 3x as soon as they graduate? Where is the monthly cash flow during graduation? Stupidity at its best………
There’s a new show on TLC called “My First Home” and so far none of these people should be buying a home.
One couple had zero dollars in savings, and they’re buying a house with 0% down and an ARM.
I don’t think any buyers yet on the show have put a deposit down, or used a fixed interest rate.
They’ll all be on the show titled “How I Survived Foreclosure” in 2009.
They’ll all be on the show titled “How I Survived Foreclosure” in 2009.
I wouldn’t be so sure about their foreclosure avoidance prospects.
njrebear 188,
150,000… wow!
If IBM really does that and if they can pull it off, I shudder to think what that will do to IT wages.
Unrealtor,
I just caught the HGTV episode on North Jersey. Thanks for the heads up.
I also caught the beginning of “My First Home”
What I found incredible was the house that was featured in Pequannock. It was a 550 square foot crack house in the flood zone where nothing had been done in 50 years. It was falling apart. It was basically a tear down, but the couple planned to live in it. The couple offered $199k and was turned down. It was absolute garbage.
“My First Home” comes on and they are looking in the suburbs of Atlanta. They guy says he doesn’t want to spend over $200k. The realtor shows him house after house in his range. All new or near new construction; marble countertops, Jacuzzis, hardwood floors, 2 car garages etc.
It really makes you wonder why you would want to stay around here. Unless you are well off or are already well established, you could do much better somewhere else.
Does anyone have the stats on how many homes sold in Marlboro, NJ in April?
Can anyone please let me know if MLS# 2397656 is under contract………….thanks in advance
Berkeley Heights? Still active.
jb
allisonline,
MLS# 2361773
118 Days on Market
Keep in mind it’s a flip, it was purchased in June of ’06 for $287,120. Price has not yet been reduced.
jb
JB –
Thanks so much. I know why he’s willing to talk 25% below AP now. Competitively priced in that market should be approx 380k. Fair price… maybe 350k.
Thanks for the info…I’ll check it out in person and see if it’s worth my time. I hate flips. Seen a bunch of ’em lately – just sitting on the market
Sync
Think about all of them and the pay cuts from working corporate for X number of years as well.
“Well Jimmy there are 14 guys out there just like you who’s UI benefits are running out and they are looking at the exciting career of Fast Food Management, why should we hire you for 40K when I know one of them will take 15 an hour no benefits?”
RE: 222 (“buyers -v- sellers markets): My coworker says increased inventory with tighter money (higher rates or less liquidity) will result in lower prices for the same house. Thus, a buyer can negotiate the price they are willing to pay where as if there were 10 people bidding at the same property, the price would be inelastic. What do you think of that???