From CNN/Money:
Big drop in home prices predicted
Most industry watchers agree that home prices will continue to slide before they recover, but now some economists say they’ve got a long way to fall before bouncing back.
David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poors, has forecast a price drop of about 8 percent for the 24-month period through the fourth quarter of 2008.
His prediction came during a general economic outlook session at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Secondary Market Conference & Expo in New York this week.
Housing prices will suffer from a “significant increase in defaults and foreclosures,” he said, with affordability still a major issue. Wyss worried how hard the slump will hit already highly inflated housing markets.
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Celia Chen, Moody’s Economy.com’s director of housing economics followed Wyss’ lead. “We also have an 8 percent decline in median house prices [for the 24-month period ending March 31, 2008], which is consistent with what David Wyss had.”“That is quite a bold forecast,” Lawrence Yun, economist at the National Association of Realtors, speaking from his Washington, D.C. office, said of Wyss’s prediction. NAR is predicting a much less severe total decline of 1.4 percent through the slump – prices have already declined three straight quarters – and that a recovery will start to take place in early 2008.
“The run up,” Yun said, “was an investor-demand driven boom, and it was followed by an investor-driven collapse.”
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Doug Duncan, chief economist for the MBA, also forecast a shallower trough than Wyss did. Speaking at the same MBA conference session, he predicted a drop of 2.7 percent for the year, although he conceded that the number may be less precise than it appears.“Economists,” he said, “demonstrate their senses of humor by employing a decimal point.”
He did, however, point out that taking inflation into account, the loss of median home value will approach 5 percent.
Bernanke Warned by Real Estate Analysts:
Housing Collapse Is Much Worse Than You Say
http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2007/070522warn_bernanke.html
May 22, 2007 (EIRNS)—A real estate investment and analysis firm, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, said on May 21 that it is “going public with our concerns” that the national sales information for both new and existing homes, is misleading and covering up a deep plunge of the housing sector. “The housing market has softened much more than is being reported” by the Fed, and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says JBREC.
The firm reports that having purchased and compiled actual home sale closing data for 55% of the country, it finds existing-home sales down, not 9% as NAR reports, but: 22% in May 2006-April 2007, compared to May 2005-April 2006; and much more than that on a simple year-to-year comparison of the past couple of months. It found that existing-home sales have fallen every bit as much as the new-home sales of the biggest homebuilders D.R. Horton and Lennar, which are down 37% and 27%. It found that home brokerage transactions by Realogy Corp., the nation’s biggest realtor company which owns Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and ERA, fell 18% from 2005 to 2006. And that mortgage applications for home purchase have fallen 18%, even though many buyers now have to fill out several applications in order to get a mortgage.
Taking the states with the worst housing sales/foreclosures crises, JBREC found Florida home sales down 34%, not 28% as NAR reported; Arizona sales down 38%, not 28%; and California’s down 37%, not 24% as NAR reports. This strong underreporting of the collapse by NAR, the firm says, only dates from the middle of 2006; it doesn’t claim any intentional misrepresentation by NAR.
As for new-home sales, JBREC reports the Census Bureau is continuing not to subtract cancellations from reported sales, giving sales figures which are much rosier than the grim reality, and are reported publicly by the Federal Reserve.
“In summary, we believe that the Fed should know that the housing market correction has been quite steep, and is also not showing signs of bottoming out,” concludes JBREC.
Separately, a Wall Street firm reported May 18 that the foreclosure “shock cone” is widening: While total foreclosures, at all stages, are up 60-70% over last year so far, foreclosure notices—the front end of the process, when a mortgage is typically 90 days delinquent—are 127% higher so far than in 2006. It said that foreclosed homes being resold by banks or lenders, are hitting the housing market with an average price drop of 30% nationally.