Preliminary May sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in..
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only May sales, 2000 to 2007 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph, new this month, displays the year over year change in inventory on a monthly basis.
(click to enlarge)
Holy Crap, it’s flatlining. And the fourth graph looks a little like a distorted EKG with a heart attack on the end.
Amazing.
Put this up a bit early. I’m flying to Buffalo early morning, so I’m not sure how much blogging I can get in.
jb
Sales/Inventory graph reminds me of the Florida Gator fans swamp song.
22 year old stripper with $2.4 million in debt and 10 foreclosed houses.
An REIC spinning out of control. And an epic, devastating housing crash.
Sunday, June 10, 2007
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/
FLASH: PIMCO’s bond guru Bill Gross predicts US housing market to be “decimated”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/19108336
“These increases in rates over the past few days have placed the 30-year mortgage market at close to 7% in conventional terms,” said Gross, chief investment officer for Pacific Investment Management Co. and manager of the world’s largest bond fund.
“This will decimate the housing market if it wasn’t already decimated before, and certainly put the Fed on hold, and maybe allow the Fed to reduce rates…six to nine months from now.”
“22 year old stripper with $2.4 million in debt and 10 foreclosed houses.”
Casey Serin is a stripper. MY GOODNESS :-(
Can anyone with full MLS access confirm whether a condo in Cliffside Park sold for $8,885,000?
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4sr.cgi?&srch_type=1&ms_user=monm&district=02066893
“Casey Serin is a stripper. MY GOODNESS :-(”
and who are you?
Casey Serin is a LIAR!!!
iamfacingforeclosure is back up and running!!
Donald, don’t resort to violence:
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/06/housingpanic-stupid-question-of-day_08.html
Mountain Lakes, NJ: I’m in a similar situation, where I’m trying to sell my townhouse and my neighbors are unhappy that I’ve lowered the price. But I’ve moved to a new area and have to sell so I can close on my new house — I don’t have the luxury of holding the place for a year, because I can’t afford double mortgage payments. It’s not that I’m not neighborly — I just don’t think being neighborly means that I have to drive myself into bankruptcy.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2006/06/16/DI2006061601323.html
Re post 4:
House,
As my friend Wesley used to tell me, “any story becomes more interesting when you throw a little nudity into the mix.”
Even foreclosures.
I am looking to buy in west orange. I saw a town house . What is going to decrease more the prices: a house or a town house?
simpleguy,
A townhouse will decrease in value alot quicker because there are so many of them and for the most part, they are all alike. Whereas a house, not as many on the market and they have more “unique” characteristics.
But, if you know the value will decrease, why buy now? I’m not saying buying is a bad thing, but in this current market, it may be best to hold. I would imagine you could get alot better deals if you hold and don’t jump on the first little price dip.
Like shytown says:
cross off 07 and beware of the false bottom.
SAS
Spanish Developer Colonial Faces Higher Loan Costs
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBY3eypkhI9k&refer=home
Banks demanded that Inmobiliaria Colonial SA pay more interest to borrow 7.2 billion euros ($9.7 billion) because of the risk Spain’s second-largest developer will be hurt by a slump in property prices.
Donald,
After reviewing all the 600+ posts on the weekend open discussion, I think you posted most of them…
Go for a walk my friend. It helps to clear the mind a little.
SAS
600 weekend posts?! You guys were busy! In the midst of the graduation chaos (none of mine yet, thank heavens), I got an offer close enough to my (very) reduced price to say “yes” so attorney review starts this morning. I wish I could have sold for more but am greatly relieved that I can move on with life.
My agent of my buy sent over a raft of new listings for me to look at last night. Is it my rose-colored imagination or are the new listings pricing a little more realistically?
At the same time, I’ve been looking on and off since last fall and alot of the same old stuff is still hanging in there at the same old crazy prices. Geez, what a crazy market!
starting (17)-
Congrats! Whatever you got…it’s better than what you would’ve drawn a few months hence. All indications point to this next leg down in prices to be quick and painful.
Yep, a few sellers (the smart ones) are beginning to get the message. You’ll find that the ones with realistic prices will also deal with you like a human being. You may further find that the most realistic sellers are the ones who have some shred of equity in their homes; if they’ve been in a while, the $$$ they’re walking away with are still more than they ever dreamed possible.
Good luck!
Saw an open house sign this weekend. Went to check it out because they had the free flyer outside by the for sale sign. They wanted $420,000 for a very small cape with no backyard and not much of a front yard either. This was in Hasbrock Heights.
clot, in your opinion… generalizing of course… who will be easier to ‘deal with’ in terms of market pricing and accepting reality quicker/firts… inland NJ-ish or shore-NJ?
‘quicker/first’…that is.
I have an OT question, that I should’ve posted this weekend but I wasn’t around…. I know this is a NJ RE board, but I was curious what everyone’s thoughts are on the state of NYC RE. A friend of mine is looking into buying in NYC (not manhattan) and she was saying she has to buy now b/c next year “prices will be at least $50-100k more” – but aren’t things slowing down there as well? I can’t imagine things are appreciating that quickly still. Thoughts?
10 Yr. now @ 5.15%
Gluts of inventory piling up.
See more $1mil+ priced homes going into foreclosure. Show & tellers sinking.
hehehehehe
#22
I like streeteasy.com for tracking NYC apartment prices. It tells you days on market, price increases/decreases and if you’re a paying member – the comps in the building going back to about 2004 or 2005. (Their forum is awful IMHO).
Also, anecdotal…sister in law is a part-time (and very hard working and diligent) realtor in NYC.. quote “I don’t know how anyone working full-time makes enough money at this to support themselves.”
Another acquaintance has been trying to sell an apartment for well over a year, lots of curiosity seekers, but no offers….
And, I’ve started seeing flyers in my neighborhood posted on mailboxes and telephone poles for open houses – I haven’t seen that in about 15 years.
lurker,
From Crain’s NY Business
Foreclosure filings soar in Brooklyn, Queens
By: Tom Fredrickson
Published: February 12, 2007 – 2:37 pm
A rapid rise in foreclosure rates could cost thousands of mostly low- and middle-income New Yorkers their homes.
The number of homes in foreclosure rose 18% in the last six months of 2006 compared with the same period of 2005, according to data from RealtyTrac. More worrisome is the fact that filings tabulated by Profiles Publications show that 100 homes in both Brooklyn and Queens are entering the foreclosure process each week — double the numbers of a year ago.
“The numbers here are going up by the week,” says Jessica Davis, president of Profiles Publications, which tracks foreclosure figures. “The last time I saw it this bad was in the early 1990s.”
Though the increase in New York compares with a nationwide surge of 45% in the same period, the jump in filings here is nonetheless a major setback. Until recently, many considered the city immune to the problems of the softening housing market.
lurkerA Says:
June 11th, 2007 at 9:29 am
A friend of mine is looking into buying in NYC (not manhattan) and she was saying she has to buy now b/c next year “prices will be at least $50-100k more” – but aren’t things slowing down there as well? I can’t imagine things are appreciating that quickly still. Thoughts?
lurk: check out i-banks earnings….many are reporting this week….listen to the chatter…..if they start talking about 2007 as something close to the strength of 2006, then you can being to assume another boffo set of bonuses…..at a minimum, it keeps a floor on NYC. Is this person from Manhattan or has a secure job in Manhattan? If the person intends to live in Manhattan for at least 5-10 years and is considering buying a property that will sustain they through a marriage and one kid….go ahead. If it is any other permutation – no way………..
Clot,
With mortgage rates rising, do you think that will push people to get deals done before rates go any higher?
Or do you think it will cause people to step back in the hopes that rates will spike a bit and then decline?
From Reuters:
Fed’s Pianalto sees little consumer hit from housing
DUBLIN (Reuters) – A slowdown in the United States’ housing market may have knocked as much as one percentage point off annual growth, but does not seem to have affected consumer demand much, a top Federal Reserve official said on Monday.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Sandra Pianalto, who votes on U.S. rates, said the fundamentals of the U.S. economy were strong and the biggest risk was inflation.
“The predominant risk we face is that inflation does not moderate as we expect it to do. And we are keeping our eye on that issue. That’s our objective and that’s the issue that we have to stay focused on,” she told a conference in Dublin.
More at: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSFAT00338420070611
scribe Says:
June 11th, 2007 at 10:01 am
Clot,
With mortgage rates rising, do you think that will push people to get deals done before rates go any higher?
Or do you think it will cause people to step back in the hopes that rates will spike a bit and then decline?
scribe: both…..just recognize, most people on the fence are already in the game….so part of the new thinking is “…..hey I have a mortgage with this great rate, but if I buy a new house I flush it down the toilet….maybe I’ll just sit tight instead of move up…”
Everyone – thank you for your responses.
Sassy – thank you for the website, ill check it out. To be honest, one of the reasons I’m asking is because I have NO idea how my friend plans to afford this (and she is normally VERY fiscally conservative and has never paid a penny of interest in her life).
scribe – thank for the article – very interesting.
cf – just had a long conversation with someone else about the i-banks and their bonuses. so i was planning on keeping an eye out for that. this friend in question does live and work in manhattan currently, though doesn’t have the kind of income one would necessarily associate with purchasing in NYC (as I said already, i have NO idea how she plans to afford this, but i really don’t want to come off as judgemental).
btw, i should add, every time i mention to her about the state of the RE market she comes back with “this isn’t new jersey, NYC is different” – and i just giggle.
Chi,
I’m thinking more about first-time buyers.
The MBA is predicting 7% by the end of the year. So if the perception is that rates are heading higher, that might push some people to buy and lock in a rate.
Then again, prices are so high, higher rates might be another nail in the coffin.
From the WSJ:
Credit-Rating Standard Tightens
Fair Isaac Corp., the company behind FICO credit scores, is shutting down a fast track to a better credit rating.
Starting in September, consumers who are added as an authorized user on someone else’s credit card will no longer be able to benefit from that card’s credit history. The change reverses the current practice, known as piggybacking, which treats all authorized users the same as the cardholder.
Here’s how it works: Say a mother has a gold card with a $10,000 credit limit and a typical $1,000 balance that she’s paid on time since 2000. If she added her 18-year-old son as an authorized user today, his credit score would get a quick boost, because it would look like he, too, had a card with 90% of the credit line free and a perfect seven-year history.
Credit scores improve when a person keeps balances low relative to limits and pays bills on time for long periods.
In an interview last year, a Fair Isaac spokesman said the company allowed the quirk because it didn’t have any proof that people were gaming the system to lenders’ detriment. But after researching the market and discovering a number of companies that sell the right to become an authorized user on complete strangers’ credit accounts, Fair Isaac decided it was time to close the loophole, according to Ron Totaro, vice president of global scoring solutions at the Minneapolis-based company.
With mortgage rates rising, do you think that will push people to get deals done before rates go any higher?
Or do you think it will cause people to step back in the hopes that rates will spike a bit and then decline?
I think affordability is so stretched as it is, the big jump in rates last week will likely push more potential buyers (those on the margins) back out of the market. That being said, in the past few years when interest rates have risen, you did see a flurry of activity. Buyers locked in rates before “getting priced out forever”.
This time around, however, the same sense of urgency isn’t there anymore. Buyers may look for deeper price concessions or may simply sit on the sidelines.
lurker,
When I walk to the gym, I walk down a local avenue with a lot of RE offices with flyers in the windows.
Queens has a lot of 2 and 3 family brick houses. Prices have been astronomical – $600,000 to $900,000.
This isn’t much of an area for SFH. There’s a wide range in Queens in terms of different areas.
But there’s a brick row house down the road from me that has a sheriff’s notice on the front door and a “for sale” sign.
scribe – yeah, she’s not looking at SFH – she’s looking at insanely overpriced 1 bd apts. that’s what makes it even crazier.
Anyone have advice on Ridgewood? We looked at houses from 750K all the way up to 950K, and still saw nothing that either my wife or I could imagine raising a family in. We cannot believe that couples with enough financial “whatever” (good job, investing acumen, etc.) to afford a house this expensive would agree to pay such a high price for such a stinky house.
Most/all were very old, and many had only one bath on the 2nd floor (i.e., with the bedrooms). There was maybe one more bath in the whole house, and this was often in the basement.
And heaven forbid there should be whole-house air conditioning.
Many also were expanded capes or similar, where the expansions were clearly second-rate (uneven lines, cheap walls and floors, chintzy bathroom fixtures).
How high does one have to go in Ridgewood to get a nice “normal” house? Also, is there a “nicer” area? (Some have said west of the tracks), or are there preferred elementary schools?
Eagle,
Amazing isn’t it? It’s beyond laughable and the sheep just keep on falling for it. I can’t believe how people (mis)manage their finances.
“So if the perception is that rates are heading higher, that might push some people to buy and lock in a rate.”
While that happened in past, the rates have moved too swiftly this time for buyers to give any chance to lock.Now that the rates are already high, It will only reduce the demand further
#31
The problem with purchasing a NYC coop is in addition to the downpayment (usually 20% cash in hand) you need to have anywhere from 6 months to two years of maintenance and mortgage in reserve – depends on the coop. Ouch! Or, you can purchase a higher priced sponsor unit and avoid all of that.
If she does purchase I suggest a one bedroom with a dining area, which can be used in case of a bambino…And go to insideschools.org to make sure they’re buying into a good public school district. I can not emphasize more the importance of this, not only for re-sale, but if she does need to wait out a downturn in RE.
I am surprised that in my daughter’s public school class, about half the parents have multi-million dollar apartments, and also vacation homes. I would have expected parents with that kind of money to do the private school route…however, at 30K per kid per school calendar…well expensive is the word…
We (me, hubby, kid and cat) are smooshed in our tiny 1 bedroom, thankfully rent regulated, walk up. It’s tight squeeze. But, I am not house poor by any means! I always felt I’d rather live simply in order to have money to enjoy NYC, rather than living in NYC spending every penny on rent or mortgage, and not be able to afford to do things in the city.
Wish your friend luck!
Is it wrong of me to be chomping at the bit in regards to getting a deal in this crashing market? We’re excited that prices are going down … but at the same time, us grabbing a great deal (say, a house listed at 650k now for 400k next year – it’s totally possible) would likely come at the expense of someone got caught holding the bag.
There’s only one clown on this board who refuses to see the facts (inventory up, sales down, no more shady mortgages, etc) … but do any of you feel this way?
I bought new construction out of state in 2005, then sold in 2006 when i saw what was happening. I listed it super high at first, had no takers, then chopped 30k off and it sold in two days. Still made out fine.
What i dont get is why the current sellers aren’t doing the same thing. My sale was in 2006 … things are MUCH worse now.
sassy #41 – thanks. she’s actually looking at condos, not coops, for that exact reason. and she’s single, so i dont think she plans to still be in the place when the time comes for her to be more than one person. but i believe it does have a dining area. anyway, while im trying to not be judgemental, i do appreciate the opinions that are inline with mine :) im just amazed that she’s considering buying in the city. i dont know, i still have no idea how she’s affording it.
Sass: recognize that co-op’s and I’m sure most recent condo development also have policies designed to fleece those who move in and out, and benefit the long time owners whostay for 30 years.
Here’s a greedy grubber who thought homes ‘appreciate’ $715,000 every six months:
434 Old Short Hills Rd, 07078
MLS 2230762
Closed Apr 11, 2006 @ 1,960,000 after 361 days on market.
Six months later, in Jan 2007, these new owners tried to re-sell the house, which was just built in 2006 with every amenity, for $2,675,000 (MLS 2365882).
Doesn’t everyone see $715,000 ‘appreciation’ in six months?
The house had just sat on the market for 300+ days, and the guy thought there would be a Greater Fool out there to pay $715K more a few months later?
They just pulled it off the market on June 10th. It’s a good bet it will be relisted shortly with a $50K “price reduction.”
#44
Hence the reason I’m in my cr@ppy walkup 100 year old tenement, with cheap rent.
And, I hate to say this, now that I’m a mom…but if there’s another terrorist attack (my deepest fear), I’m outta here immediately. And, it’s a lot easier to break a lease, than run away from a mortgage.
I was on jury duty for the ’93 WTC attack, and home w/morning sickness (thankfully) – not too far from and watched from my living room window – the 2001. I still remember the smell that hung around for the months following, ugh. I live downtown, and I’ve had more than my fair share. (PTSD anyone?)
Can’t help but feeling that there will be a nother attack – or attempt.
My game plan is saving once the kid is in full time school. I joke that my nanny’s salary is my mortgage payment of the future. So hopefully, by middle school time, I’ll be a (reluctant) suburbanite.
Eagle, I guess some buyers aren’t as demanding as others. When we bought our house, 1.5 baths and 2 bedrooms in a early 1900’s craftsman style bungalow was good enough for us. All about perspective I guess…
Oh, the “nicer” side of Ridgewood is on the Midland Park/HoHokus border rather than on the Paramus border. Personally, I think any part of Ridgewood is nice..
As someone who left NYC in 2005 but is chomping at the bit to go back, I wouldn’t even think of looking until fall of 08, preferably after presidential election. Prices do go down in NYC—even in Manhattan. Though I didn’t realize it at the time, I really lucked out by buying in 1993 at the bottom of the last market swing. But even more important than evaluating schools in terms of resale value, imho, since this is a one-bedroom condo, lurkerA, is whether the place is close to a subway line (cause there will be congestion pricing in Manhattan) and whether the building got the benefit of a 421a tax abatement (and hence is paying ridiculously low taxes now that will become astronomical in 10-15 years).
Made a bid on a house yesterday – pretty competitively priced at 380k. We bid 10% below LP.
Just got this from our realtor:
“I have not heard back yet, but I can tell you she was not thrilled with the price we came in at. Apparently it is the lowest bid she has seen, and she has not yet accepted any other offers. I asked her to consider a counter. My gut feeling is that she won’t go below 375ish. ”
Maybe if you keep getting offers below LP, you should rethink what you’re willing to sell your home for. You think sitting on the market 4 months + is going to get you w/in 5k of LP?
PS – Seller is REA. Special.
#49 peacenow – thanks for your input!
#50
Did you put an expiration date on your bid?
#38
I completely agree that prices are such that you’d think anyone with any financial sense would run away. They are, and that is why sales are plummeting.
#52:
No. It doesn’t sound like we’ll hear anything back, but we’re not in a rush. Putting money in the bank, have a decent place to live. Just getting anxious to be in our own home. Definitely want to buy before our wedding in December, and with interest rates rising…
#51 LurkerA
Follow the link for a great explanation of the Tax Abatement issue (also helpful NYC RE blog)…
http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/04/biggest_scam_in.html
#55 – Sassy
Thanks, that’s very interesting….
“And go to insideschools.org to make sure they’re buying into a good public school district.”
Good public school districts in NYC? Are you drinking again?
Donald, are you sure you’re the right person to be asking that question?
Ignorant on more than one front, no surprise.
” but aren’t things slowing down there as well? I can’t imagine things are appreciating that quickly still. Thoughts?”
No, things are NOT slowing down in NYC. Multiple offers and double digit appreciation are the norm there. Anyone who thinks the market in NYC is down is an idiot.
“Donald, are you sure you’re the right person to be asking that question?”
I lived in manhattan for 13 years. I have seen it all. I would avoid walking by the neighborhood high school at 3:00 out of fear for my safety.
Your ignorance is killing me.
Thanks for the good laugh…
Just like Richard, who took a walk thru the Bronx 20 years ago in a suit..and nothing happened to him. Oh, and he’s still writing about it.
#59 – Donald, thank you, I appreciate your well constructed argument.
I hope that my sarcastic tone is at least somewhat obvious, I know it doesn’t always translate in the written word.
“WTF? Are we listing personal information about people on this site now? Angry RE agents feeling the weight of the eight ball struggle with a reluctant seller who bought at the top of the market? Can’t make ends meet? So push other people to lose ‘their’ ass?!”
The realtors here are getting so desperate to make a commission, they are trying to get paid by telling sellerts to take 6 digit losses. I thought about becoming a real estate agent once, but I decided to finish high school instead.
startingover,
If you really sold for a $100,000+ loss, you are a complete idiot.
Donald,
This is the smartest thing you said in here.
“. I thought about becoming a real estate agent once, but I decided to finish high school instead.”
Amen.
MM
nearly 20% Sacramento owe more than value of home. This is a nightmare waiting to happen.
http://www.news10.net/display_story.aspx?storyid=28915
Make money..
The question is..when will he finish high school? Now that he’s decided to.
Wouldn’t you be happy with an REA who hadn’t yet graduated HS?
Sassy,
I thought a GED is fine. What do I know?
Don’t feed the troll.
Who is the idiot that siad the most I can sell my house for is $700,000. You are so dumb it is not funny. Obvivoulsy a frustrated renter that is angry that sellers are not lwoering their prices. Keep renting that basement apartment in Union City, it is not so bad.
#11: If your neighbors don’t like you undercutting their home values, give them a chance to buy you out at a price they prefer!
BTW, JB, pick up some super hot wings @ Duff’s.. You’ll thank me ;)
I don’t have to worry about any of my neighbors undercutting me. None of them have lowered their asking prices recently. I guess there are not that many desperate sellers as buyers would like to think there are.
Donald,
It’s a renters market.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/other_business/article/0,2777,DRMN_23916_5578360,00.html
I have no rush to sell my home. If I sell tomorrow, great. If I sell in 3 years, that is also fine. Once the new luxury condo complex down the street from me is put up and makes my section of town even more desireable, I think I may even raise the price.
Yeah, that is right all of you renter clowns, I will be raising my price. Should be easy to do when you live down the street from this beauty:
http://www.auroraoverthehudson.com/media/images/headers/header_register.jpg
Make [73],
Great article.
#13 simpleguy:
I prefer a town home myself, due to personal reasons. Young kids, work hours, work-related travel, etc which leaves me very little time for yard work and exterior home improvements maintenance.
How-ever, I noticed that it is much harder to sell town homes in the suburbs. Plus with the older units, you have to compromise on space. The more newer luxury town homes have the space but they offer no cost advantage over single family homes. Given the same or near same cost, I think a single family house is a better investment.
#28 Scribe – I can only speak for myself, but as a potential buyer, the rate increases only serve to keep me even more firmly planted on the sidelines, absent a MAJOR decrease in prices. Anyone buying right now seems to be getting a double whammy.
Donald,
Every time BC Bob makes a smart comment, raise the price of your house by 10%. Show him who is boss.
#50 Alisonline – It sounds like you are getting all the typical lines from your realtor. And you haven’t even heard back from the seller? You didn’t even lowball them. I would consider getting a new realtor, because there is a difference between one who presents your offer on a silver platter and one who presents the same offer on a garbage can lid.
#80
I agree, which is why I asked if Alisonline gave a termination date for her offer. If the seller has received so many offers already, why is the place still for sale? More than likely, her offer will be used as a stalking horse
Donald,
Why not raise it to say..23M ala simmons. What do you have to loose? it’s not like you have anyone actually giving you an offer.
Gues what when you lower it to 950K in a couple years it’s gonna seem like a bargain. people gonna say “Donald you’re so smart”
80, 81 –
I like to think of myself as intelligent, educated, and savvy, but this process has proven me otherwise, despite my best efforts to remain so.
What about my post leads you to believe that my agent may hold some responsibility? How should it have been handled differently?
Thanks for all your input – positive and negative.
Alli
No thanks, I will wait until the complex is built, then I will raise the price.
Can someone with GSMLS access please give me the listing history of the following properties in Montclair? It is much appreciated. Thanks!
2255590 76 Christopher
2340017 20 Montclair (I think this was listed previously at a higher place and pulled and relisted)
2201135 and 2286093 51 Essex
2320878 71 Montclair
2278944 218 Walnut2300165 60 N Willow
GSMLS Unknown 46 Christopher
Donald,
I think you’ll get 650K tops for your house. Maybe 675K if you really stage it correctly. BTW, I own my own house for many years with lots of equity.
Sorry to everyboey to interrupt your great and informative discussion with Donald…
“you are dumb!. No you are dumber!! and so on”
But I have couple questions regarding RE:
“How do one get a RE tax Tax Abatement” in NJ for Sungle family housing??
I saw 3 houses owners of which were saying that they have no idea what will taxes be as their current RE taxes were frozen ( abated ) for 5 years…..
Anybody any idea??
Also anybody here have a link to step by step instructions on buying Foreclosed preoperties – more importantly how to checlk for second liens, judgements against and HELOCS on the property??
Instructions on: where excactly in county office do you go, to which clerk to talk to, what are the fees for access to the information, and such.
May be if you know of a book which would have this – recommend it to me or if James will consider it is as an advertizement – may be send an email to his and he would forward it to me?
So far all the books on RE investement I found were shameless generic advertizement of RE investing without ANY helpfull information, All following steps of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” – the worst book ever written.
I knwo all thouse authoors make their money through seminars and selling their books, people who are really making money of RE investements would never want to share their secrets/methods.
Disclaimer: I am not looking at buying FK property right now, and WHEN/IF I will it will be not in NJ.
I found only couple of forms here:
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/index.html?prntlpt.htm~mainFrame
Application for Real Property Tax Abatement for Residential Property in an Urban Enterprise Zone
and
Application for 5 Year Exemption/Abatement for Improvement, Conversion or Construction of Property under C.441, P.L. 1991
Funny – most condo projects in NJ are under this abatements.
N.J.S.A.54:4-3.141
The governing body of a qualified municipality may, by ordinance, determine that one or more areas within the municipality are in need of
rehabilitation, and that one or more buildings or structures in any such area could be advantageously converted to qualified residential
property or that vacant land in any such area could be advantageously used for the construction of qualified residential property. Any such
determination shall be made in keeping with regulations which shall be promulgated by the Commissioner of Community Affairs pursuant to
the “Administrative Procedure Act,” P.L.1968, c. 410 (C.52:14B-1 et seq.), which shall take into consideration the following: existence of
blighted areas in the municipality; deterioration of housing stock; age of housing stock; supply of and demand for housing in the municipality;
and arrearage in real property taxes due on residential properties.
Bold off
Donald makes me laugh. Poor guy can’t comprehend that selling the house for the same price that he bought it 2 years ago isn’t ‘breaking even’.
Furthermore, he doesn’t comprehend that ‘letting it sit’ in a flat/depressing market isn’t doing anything but pissing more money into an upside-down ‘investement’.
Good job Donald.
“I think you’ll get 650K tops for your house.”
And I think you will get $100k, tops, for your house.
Allison,
Maybe my sense of tone is off, but it seems like your agent is not being your advocate here. 10% off is a fair bid in this market no matter what anyone says. The question I’d be asking is why does my agent want me to meet the seller’s price given how much inventory is available? You do not need to chase any particular seller. Do the seller and your agent work together or are they otherwise acquainted?
Who actually owns a home in NJ anyway? The home pretty much owns you with the hefty property taxes attached to it.
>>(say, a house listed at 650k now for 400k next year – it’s totally possible)
don’t miss the flying pigs outside either.
donald –
i can understand that emotionally you don’t want to take a loss on your current investment in cliffside park. but i think a more realistic way of viewing your situation is to look at your entire real estate buy/sell situation as a whole. it sounds like you made a lot of money on your manhattan apt. – some of that money was bubble money, because you sold before the bubble burst. so in effect, you’re still ahead of the game even if you have to take somewhat of a loss in cliffside park. once you sell, you will have the freedom to watch the market deflate more and get something better in alpine. you will also save all the money you mentioned in property taxes, and you could earn some interest on the cash you get on the sale (i’m assuming your mortgage is low, since you had the money from your manhattan sale).
Um, didn’t we have an agreement not to feed the troll? Who started that the other day? Can we start it again and this time everyone just agree to ignore him? He posted most of the 600+ weekend postings. That’s not normal, he’s got issues and adds nothing to the discussion.
I still put in my vote that I’m not certain he’s real.
Oh, and that graph above is trending so far below prior graphs that I’d be nervous if I was selling or an agent as well.
>>just like Richard, who took a walk thru the Bronx 20 years ago in a suit..and nothing happened to him. Oh, and he’s still writing about it.
tough words on a blog. you don’t even know what area i’m talking about. it’s worse today than it was then but you wouldn’t know that since you’re more interested in bashing those not of your ilk than having meaningful discourse.
“because you sold before the bubble burst.”
Right here, I know not to take advice from you because you do not know what you are talking about. The bubble never burst in Manhattan. NYC is immune to the RE slump, in case you did not get the memo.
Al
An abatement is when you are allowed to put off paying higher taxes that have been imposed due to improvements
KL
“Um, didn’t we have an agreement not to feed the troll?”
Feed me, I’m hungry.
I wish I was NOT real because then I would not be stuck with a house that I can’t sell.
>>I have no rush to sell my home. If I sell tomorrow, great. If I sell in 3 years, that is also fine. Once the new luxury condo complex down the street from me is put up and makes my section of town even more desireable, I think I may even raise the price.
seems true of most people i talk to. they don’t seem particularly rushed to sell. if they get their asking price with some small downwards price revisions fine. if not they’ll wait for 1, 2 or even 3 years if need be. take a peruse of the MLS and you’ll see many properties seem to fit this profile. hard to explain it any other way except seeing massive price cuts off original listings en masse which isn’t the case.
The question I’d be asking is why does my agent want me to meet the seller’s price given how much inventory is available? You do not need to chase any particular seller. Do the seller and your agent work together or are they otherwise acquainted?
The buyer’s agent has an inherent conflict of interest in the way commissions are structured. It is in your agent’s best interest to get you to buy as quickly as possible (least work) for the greatest possible price (highest commission).
Don’t you love how the guy just sidesteps all logic? Refuses to comment on any of the millions of links that point to a housing crash.
Next thing you know, he’s going to get all huffy and say that this board ‘needs him.’ As someone who frequents various message boards (sports, pop culture, real estate, etc), I’ve seen his type.
At any rate, it’s nice to see prices being reduced in Glen Rock and Ridgewood. Makes anyone’s Monday afternoon.
“I wish I was NOT real because then I would not be stuck with a house that I can’t sell.”
I thought you didn’t care if you sold it today, tomorrow, or 3 years ago??
“seems true of most people i talk to. they don’t seem particularly rushed to sell. if they get their asking price with some small downwards price revisions fine.”
It’s totally dependent on situation – you are always saying that bubbleheads make too many assumptions – this is just that – an assumption, true for some, not for others. The market is vast and people having so many different needs and reasons.
My sellers were in a massive hurry to sell; my parents were thinking of putting their place on the market in the near future and can wait 5 years for it to sell if need be (but they’re not dumb – they’d be willing to take reductions because their equity is above and beyond ridiculous at this point, having owned the place for over 30 years). It is so dependent on stage in life, reasons for selling, etc. Maybe if you’re reaching and hoping to see what happens, you don’t NEED to sell. But for all those people, there are plenty who are sick, getting transferred, getting a divorce – or like millions in the near future, retiring.
Richard – Those people who don’t care are the saps who ‘missed the boat.’ They sat in their homes while neighbors sold at top dollar in 2003, 2004, and 2005 … and then, at some point, decided, ‘hey, we may as well cash out, too!’
And it was too late.
Historically, housing crashes take time to recover. As in more than three years. These people have a few options:
a) don’t lower the price, stay in the house, have people constantly walking through your house looking at it
b) lower the price 30k or 50k or 100k or 200k and sell it quickly
#101 Richard,
Curious, do any of the people you talk to have a reason for putting their home on the market in the first place? The houses we are looking at are neat as a pin. Nothing on the counters, no toys in the playroom, etc. Why would someone be willing to live like that (esp someone with young children) for years?
I wish I was NOT real because then I would not be stuck with a house that I can’t sell.
You certainly Can sell. Just not at your fantasy-land asking price.
Find out what your place is really worth. Put it up for auction and see where it clears. If it’s as desirable as you say, you will get a good price.
only a few houses are sitting vacant. most are not. do your own research and tell me what you see. don’t commit the fallacy of equating a few with the many.
“Find out what your place is really worth. Put it up for auction and see where it clears. If it’s as desirable as you say, you will get a good price.”
That’s an interesting idea – you can even do auctions where you don’t have to accept the final bid, correct? So if you’re not happy with the price received, you don’t have to sell.
in my own experience the number of families who have bought another house and don’t have a clause in their contract to sell their existing house has dropped dramatically since the market has slowed. makes sense.
Skeptic (92)
” Do the seller and your agent work together or are they otherwise acquainted?”
They work for different brokers, or I wouldn’t have even touched it. The seller is only a PT REA, which tells me a lot about her knowledge of the market and her motivation. Do they know each other? I don’t think so, but there’s no way to be sure.
Consequently, my fiance and I have told our agent nothing but what to bid. We refuse to disclose any information on how high we are willing to go. She’s po’d, but I don’t really care. Self-preservation comes first.
#83 – Agree with skep-tic. You want an agent who at least pretends to be a good advocate. There is so much inventory out there, prices ARE falling. To pressure you to raise your bid before you’ve even heard back from the seller seems slightly unnerving. Also, not sure if Clot would agree with this tactic, but I have always put an expiration of 24-48 hours on the bid to prevent them from shopping the offer around too much.
Donald,
You’ve spent at least 200 posts extolling the virtues of Cliffside Park. You’ve posted countless MLS listings and dropped name after name after name. You’ve proved that Cliffside Park is the community by which all others should be judged.
So why are you selling and leaving town?
jb
#113 – If we didn’t specify, when does the bid expire?
another fed official came out today saying the RE slowdown hasn’t knocked over consumers or the economy. maybe it’s not as bad as y’all are trying to convince yourselves otherwise?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070611/bs_nm/economy_fed_pianalto_dc_4;_ylt=AhTTsDAlj8wiOCkLNyD2EboE1vAI
#115 – I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that it expires only when you formally withdraw it, unless it has an expiration date.
“another fed official came out today saying the RE slowdown hasn’t knocked over consumers or the economy. maybe it’s not as bad as y’all are trying to convince yourselves otherwise?”
Yet. It’s crazy to pretend as though a) it’s going to happen overnight and b) that it’s not going to effect the economy at all.
Pianalto is also saying that inflation is running “uncomfortably high”.
Treasuries Fall as Pianalto Says Inflation `Uncomfortably High’
U.S. Treasuries fell, extending five weeks of losses, as Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said inflation is “uncomfortably high.”
Fourteen of the 21 primary dealers that underwrite the government’s debt boosted their year-end estimate for the central bank’s target rate or the 10-year note’s yield. This week the government will release reports on consumer and wholesale prices. Yields on 10-year notes exceed two-year securities by 13 basis points, the most since May 2006.
#117
“I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that it expires only when you formally withdraw it, unless it has an expiration date.”
Can anyone confirm?
Thanks…
only a few houses are sitting vacant. most are not. do your own research and tell me what you see. don’t commit the fallacy of equating a few with the many.
Richard, that’s my point. These houses are NOT vacant. But they are kept in “designed to sell” condition all the time. I assume their stuff is in storage. And they are willing to live like this indefinitely?
“You’ve spent at least 200 posts extolling the virtues of Cliffside Park. You’ve posted countless MLS listings and dropped name after name after name. You’ve proved that Cliffside Park is the community by which all others should be judged.”
I thought advertising was banned on this site. Isn’t Donald advertising his home to some serious buyers here.
I thought advertising was banned on this site. Isn’t Donald advertising his home to some serious buyers here?
No, Donald has proven himself as someone I would never ever consider doing business with
From nj.com:
Property tax relief proposal passes Assembly 79-1
State Assembly members today overwhelmingly approved a resolution urging New Jersey voters to dedicate more than $1.2 billion of annual sales tax receipts to property tax relief.
Last year, the Democrat-controlled Legislature increased the sales tax from 6 percent to 7 percent, and placed on the November ballot a constitutional amendment that dedicated half the proceeds — about $600 million — to tax relief. If approved by two-thirds of the state Senate before Aug. 9, the latest resolution (ACR20) would place a similar ballot question before voters this fall to dedicate the entire increase.
Gov. Jon Corzine opposes the idea because it limits his flexibility in dealing with budget issues. But unlike other legislation, the constitutional amendment does not need his signature. The bill was approved 79-1 by the Assembly.
http://redwing.hutman.net/~mreed/warriorshtm/troller.htm
But really, Donald could be any one of a number of these archetypes…
Re: 121
There are 15 homes for sale within three blocks of me, all on the market for longer than six months. I think most of them are down to one open house per month(except for the empty ones), so the cleaning’s probably less.
While some people have time to sell and will wait to get their price, others really can’t and foreclosures are piling up. Check out this foreclosure. People bought it a couple years ago for $1 million and now the bank owns it and is asking $854K:
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1080300223
#98 donald –
you missed my point – the bubble is deflating HERE – NOW. my point was, why don’t you try to protect some of the real estate profit you made in manhattan by selling now – if you look at both transactions together, you’d be ahead of the game.
p.s. – while i’m not currently following the manhattan market, don’t be fooled into thinking it is always immune. i know several people who took a loss in manhattan during the last slump. – one person could not sell their coop, and rented it for 2 years. after 2 years the coop board did not allow rentals anymore, so he had to let it sit empty for a couple of years and pay maintenance of about $1000 a month at that time.
In such a setting, techniques like, “red herring”, and other ploys (such as Ignoratio elenchi), are often used to divert the audience from a critical issue, while the intended message is suggested through indirect means.
This sophisticated type of diversion utilizes the appearance of lively debate within what is actually a carefully focused spectrum, to generate and justify deliberately conceived assumptions. This technique avoids the distinctively biased appearance of one sided rhetoric, and works by presenting a contrived premise for an argument as if it were a universally accepted and obvious truth, so that the audience naturally assumes it to be correct.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda
“While some people have time to sell and will wait to get their price, others really can’t and foreclosures are piling up. Check out this foreclosure. People bought it a couple years ago for $1 million and now the bank owns it and is asking $854K:
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1080300223”
Eew. That’s pretty hideous. I barely get the notion of marble, the slipperiest surface around, for a bathroom floor. I will NEVER understand marble floors in the kitchen. That’s just asking for it.
Am posting here after a week. No accessing the TV and Internet for a week was rejuvenating. Came back to catch up on news yesterday evening of Paris Hilton in prison and the 10 Year at 5.12%.
Escaped Las Vegas gambling break-even; came away with memories of being liqured up like no tomorrow. I’ll stick to equities in the future; no gambling for me. Also indulged in a 30 minute conversation with an ex-NJ retiree at a gas station en route to the Grand Canyon. He fled NJ 2 years also for Georgia due to property taxes, etc. He spends equivalent of the extra 2 months of salary he has (via saved property taxes) to travel 1 month eevery 6 months. His daughter and her family left NJ last year to GA too, to be around them.
Plenty of interesting reading to catch up in this blog from the past few days….. as usual, a couple of gems of a post from BCBob, Clot and Chifi.
“Eew. That’s pretty hideous. I barely get the notion of marble, the slipperiest surface around, for a bathroom floor. I will NEVER understand marble floors in the kitchen. That’s just asking for it”
NJGal…I agree with you. I actually went to see it and thought that I could low ball, fix it up a bit and then sell it. Marble floors were everywhere, lot really not really great for families (sloped), etc. I decided to pass. According to the broker, the couple got in over their heads. Block contained very nice houses though so I’m sure if someone put some money in, it would make a nice house for someone.
NJGal: I could not agree more. What in the world is going on with that bathroom? The front of the house is beyond ugly. Those cheesy doors and mailbox/lightpole. Did you see that kitchen? Devoid of any sense of style.
Why do people put up these ugly houses and then wonder why they don’t sell?
Ugliness is subjective. But I have to agree, that’s ugly. I don’t get marble in the bathroom either, let alone in the kitchen.
““You’ve spent at least 200 posts extolling the virtues of Cliffside Park. You’ve posted countless MLS listings and dropped name after name after name. You’ve proved that Cliffside Park is the community by which all others should be judged.”
WTF? You guys are the ones who keep discussing Cliffside Park. I think Alpine is the community that all others should be judged by.
“While some people have time to sell and will wait to get their price, others really can’t and foreclosures are piling up. Check out this foreclosure. People bought it a couple years ago for $1 million and now the bank owns it and is asking $854K”
Why is everyone bashing the home in Cedar Grove? I think it is beautiful. Probabaly jealous that you can’t afford it. You would rather buy a shack in River Edge with green carpets than have a nice McMansion with marble floors.
” don’t get marble in the bathroom either, let alone in the kitchen.”
Marble is very common in kitchens and bathrooms. Of course, you probabaly did not know that because rentals don’t have marble in the kitchen and bathrooms. Too expensive.
Actually, I own my home. And I have seen rentals with marble. I can feed the troll once, right?
Why are homes in Cedar Gorve so much cheaper than homes in Bergen County? What’s the catch? I saw some really nice homes in the MLS for under a million I would love to live in. These same homes in Bergen would be $1.2 million
What’s the catch????
“Why do people put up these ugly houses and then wonder why they don’t sell?”
Ha – but they DO sell – someone bought this ugly turd at one time.
And Donald, no, my rental does not have marble floors, but I COULD afford to buy this house, and yours, so get over yourself. I just wouldn’t because it’s hideous. You really are ignorant.
I think marble floors are excellent. Anytime my German Shepherds make poop when I am not home, it is easy to clean up the mess.
Why are the floors hideous? Marble is expensive, you know. I have seen many homes with urine stained carpets (most noteably, one in Alpine) and I will take the marble anyday.
Donald,
I own my home and was going to purchase this one as an investment. I am rather confident I have more $ than you so don’t go making any stupid assumptions.
I agree with you about the outside but the inside is a totally different story though.
“Why are homes in Cedar Grove cheaper?”
I would say that Essex County taxes and its so-so school system would play a decent part in answering that question.
Only and last time I feed the troll.
Please stop feeding the troll!! The troll almost always takes a contrary view, most likely on purpose to get people riled up.
“Why are the floors hideous? Marble is expensive, you know. I have seen many homes with urine stained carpets (most noteably, one in Alpine) and I will take the marble anyday.”
Because they’re just ugly – expensive does not equal attractive or practical, but you cannot be expected to understand that. If you want a surface that’s simple to clean and not as slippery, tile and wood work just as well and are much more attractive and practical.
I fully recognize that beauty is in the eye of the beholder but I still fail to rationalize how you could say that cheesebox is “beautiful”. Are you sure you live in Northern NJ and not South Jersey with all the Eagles fans? That house is exactly what is wrong with the current trend in construction. For you to say it is beautiful now gives me a great deal of certainty as to what your “beautiful” abode looks like inside. And you wonder why it does not sell. Ha!
I bet those people who came back a second time came back with friends/family because no one would believe that a house could be so ugly! They probably took pictures to preserve the moment!
I do not take a contrary view on purpose to get people angered up. I take a contrary view because that is what I beleive. I LOVE those floors. Trust me, those floors are expensive in terms of materials and labor. I think most people would take marble over carpet anyday. I had carpet and I was sneezing everyday. Marble is good for people with allergies.
sorry for feeding, no more
“I fully recognize that beauty is in the eye of the beholder but I still fail to rationalize how you could say that cheesebox is “beautiful”.”
Ha, “cheesebox” is a great word.
I agree Mike – I grew up across from a home that was a true late 1800s Spanish style mansion and it can be a really beautiful style, even with marble floors in some rooms (just not the kitchen – expensive or not, a poor place for marble). Nowadays it just seems that people take old styles and Soprano them up. They’re horrible fakes and don’t look nice or even approximate to the real style.
“tile and wood work just as well and are much more attractive and practical.”
Not ture. Wood loses it shine and eventually has to be scaped and polished. It also scratches easily. Ceramic tile is good, but it chips easier than marble. Turst me, I know what I am talking about. I have wood, ceramic tile, and marble so I know the difference between all of the types of flooring.
Carpet is the worse. The first week I was in my house, I ripped up all the carpet and dumped it in the garbage.
lurker,
only once, please :)
Thanks for the agreement NJGal. I am not saying that certain features are in of themselves ugly (except maybe for that mailbox) but like everything else in life, it is the way you proportion your marble and your stucco and your roof, etc. I love the Soprano reference as that is exactly what I was thinking myself. I love that “style” of home and I get what the builder was trying to accomplish with the Spanish style. One of my best friends grew up in one in White Plains and it is absolutely beautiful. The insult is that the architect (if there was one) of that property probably just has his/her Rolodex of boxed McMansions and then just changes the front facade every other home. That home misses the beat on every level.
I find it interesting how you peope call me a troll because I have caught many of you guys being trolls over on Kannekt. You like to give your doom and gloom predictions so that you can hype up the flippers.
POP goes the bubble.
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney08302006.html
“My commission is 4% and if I get close to my asking price, the money I will lose is very little and I can easily make it back on my next purchase since the property taxes will be 1/4 of what mine currently are. I’m not a math expert or MBA, but I think it equals out if I sell for a loss (after commission) or if I keep the place.”
“The first week I was in my house, I ripped up all the carpet and dumped it in the garbage.”
do you count upgrades in your loss.. or is that excluded.
Finally what’s your opinion on rising mortgage rates?
“I love the Soprano reference as that is exactly what I was thinking myself. ”
I got that because my husband once stated that he thought the Soprano house was attractive. I nearly lost my mind – it became his favorite way to tease me, about how he LOVES light colored brick, and isn’t it soooo classy, etc. etc. We once talked about building our own house, and we figured that there was no way we could agree so we scrapped it.
And chipping or not Donald, I would just never put marble in the kitchen. Grandma comes over, spills some water, breaks a hip – no good. It’s a terrible material choice for a family as well. I don’t like it in bathrooms either- I injured my knee on vacation and nearly made it worse almost slipping on the all marble bathroom floor. It really doesn’t belong on the floor of a room where there are likely to be a lot of liquids. Suck it up and do the tile or wood maintenance.
“do you count upgrades in your loss.. or is that excluded.”
Yeah. your right. I guess I should count the $200 I spent replacing the carpet I removed from the basement with vinyl tile.
“Finally what’s your opinion on rising mortgage rates?”
Mortgage rates are still near historic lows. When my relatives bought a house in 1981, mortgage rates were 18%.
The upgrdes I did were very cheap since I did most of the work myself. I would say that I spent under $5,000. The home I like in Alpine needs a total renovation, but I think I can do most of the work myself. There is nothing wrong with buying a kitchen in IKEA and putting it together yourself on the weekend.
Marble is very common in kitchens and bathrooms. Of course, you probabaly did not know that because rentals don’t have marble in the kitchen and bathrooms. Too expensive.
Actually, my previous rental was new construction (run-of the mill teardown & replacement with a McMansion) in Lyndhurst. They made an Illegal 3 family (it should have been 2). As a result of the “legal status” of the apartments, we got a great deal on rent because the owner was hesitant to advertise ($1,100 for a 2 bedroom apt. larger than the majority of starter capes). The bedrooms could have easily been cut I half to make it a 4 bedroom and it still would have been big.
Long story short, it had all marble floors throughout. It looked much like the place under discussion from the inside. I couldn’t stand that part. It was always cold & there was always an echo. If you spilled some water, forget it. It was like a slip & slide.
Also, the construction was shoddy. As the new house settled, the marble began to develop hair line cracks everywhere.
The owner went with marble because it was the “in thing to do”. Totally impractical.
“There is nothing wrong with buying a kitchen in IKEA and putting it together yourself on the weekend.”
you do plan 7 years in advance..
one of my uncle’s bathrooms is floor to ceiling pink marble. it is cheesy, but kind of bad@ass at the same time. also has a shower with room for about 10. sketch
Lehman sees housing downturn lingering
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. housing market downturn could linger for years but probably does not pose a major risk to the overall economy, Lehman Brothers’ chief global fixed-income strategist said on Monday.
“The subprime saga will not be sufficient to derail the U.S. and world economy,” Lehman’s Jack Malvey said at the Reuters Investment Summit in New York.”
Malvey said the U.S. economy, despite some recent volatility, is in the midst of a “benevolent cycle” and that the current “great moderation” could run into the 2009-2012 period before risks for a U.S. and global downturn pick up.
Still, Malvey said U.S. housing prices could fall into 2009 to 2011 by an average of the mid- to high single-digits, returning to levels last seen in early 2005.
More at: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1120344720070611
MJ #160
Priceless.
IKEA kitchen sells home for 850K.
“Still, Malvey said U.S. housing prices could fall into 2009 to 2011 by an average of the mid- to high single-digits, returning to levels last seen in early 2005.”
This pisses me of. 2005 levels were the peak. Why say that. What’s he’s motivation.
“IKEA kitchen sells home for 850K”
Don’t laugh. It has. In 2005, I saw a home with a kitchen that I am pretty sure came from Ikea. The home sold in the high 900ks
Well, just checked the MLS. Good to see that no asking prices have been dropped for this week since Monday is when most agents enter price changes. This saves me the trouble of making threatening phone calls at 2 a.m. :-)
“Mortgage rates are still near historic lows. When my relatives bought a house in 1981, mortgage rates were 18%.”
Going by that argument, even 13% is historic low
your home will sell for just about 400k at 13% historic low.
#151 – scribe
nope, no more feeding for me. plus, I only post about one day a month, so it’s an easy habit to kick (of course, i say that and I’d likely be posting tomorrow).
“your home will sell for just about 400k at 13% historic low.”
But mortgagae rates are not 13%, now are they? And what about rates of 4%. If this was the rate, my home would sell for $1.1 million in a week.
Marble floors in an “Ikea” kitchen. Both installed by a clueless DIY’er.
Priceless.
jb
Linda Pollock enters the one-bedroom condo for sale in Hoboken.
She is a “stager,” a design expert who advises real estate agents and sellers on how to make their homes most attractive to buyers. A lot of this involves ruthless elimination of clutter, excess furniture and personal touches that might offend buyers.
With her this day are the father-and-son team of real estate agents who have listed this condo: Anthony Bucco, who is a little skeptical, and son John Bucco, a Hoboken firefighter and a convert to the miraculous power of staging ever since a West New York property Pollock staged for him sold above the asking price in just 16 days.
http://northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkyMSZmZ2JlbDdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5NzE0ODAyOQ==
#38 Eagle “Anyone have advice on Ridgewood?”
It’s a nice town, but higher priced than other surrounding towns. You typically get less land, less house, older house and higher taxes than a comparatively priced home nearby.
I personally believe it’s too expensive for what you get and it’s not worth it, but there seems to be plenty of people that disagree with me as lots of people love it.
I think people like to use it as a stepping stone to suburbia since it has a large main street like a small city, Manhattan-Hoboken-Ridgewood and then the more suburban town. It’s also a starter town as there are many apts, cape’s etc. The turnover rate is very high as well. Not sure if it’s people leaving town, or just moving up from there 2 bed cape for $450 to their 3 bed 1900 colonial for $700.
“Mortgage rates are still near historic lows. When my relatives bought a house in 1981, mortgage rates were 18%.”
my question really was.. which way are the mortgage rates moving from historically low. Are they moving to historically lower, or are they moving to historically average which is around 7.5
I prefer Cresskil and Tenafly over Ridgewood. It really depends on what your price range is.
There are plenty of people who, like Cliffhanger, just love marble. For some, it is precisely because it is expensive. You may recall the TV walk-throughs of those garish palaces in Iraq.
There is a fairly widely held desire to live like a potentate, regardless of how cold and inhuman these places are.
Marble is not that bad if the home is furnished. This house has marble and you barely even notice it due to the furniture:
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2636642&id=999999
Somebody here predicted widespread panic among house sellers after Labor Day, but you can already find some panicked moves if you look closely. In the place and range that I’ve been monitoring for over a year (Fair Lawn, 300 to 400K) the inventory is growing and there are price reductions daily. But NJMLS 2646644 just outdid everybody else. It was listed last December at 380K, reduced to 365K a month ago and now, getting no offers after the ridiculous 15K reduction, it went down to 300K, a 20% overnight reduction. No pity from me BTW.
Yeah, wide spread panic. I am sure that the sellers at NJMLS# 2709885 are running scared, NOT!
Simply put, this clown is a fountain of misinformation. Absolutely clueless. I feel bad for his wife/mom/son/daughter/dog.
I’m always amused by the “interest rates still at historic lows” argument as they head toward 7%+ for 30-yr
fixed. What do you get when you combine historic low interest rates with Historic High Prices? Lack of affordability and a bubble in the process of deflating.
Donald the duck
must work for AFLAC.
Quack, Quack.
Your just an uptight seller who’s frustated with the market.
Don’t you have something else to do besides harass the room. here’s a little something for you to do, go check with your agent and harass them on why your house won’t sell.
re: post 173- thanks Bergenbuyer for response.
What other towns might you suggest in addition to Ridgewood? Based on the formula of 20 percent down and mortgage at 2.5 times salary, we can afford the 600-850 range (and for dream home could maybe stretch to 900) – if possible, we are trying to stay in lower end of this range because it has only been past few years that my career advancement/promotions have permitted us even to think about this price range. We want a good school district and a nice commute into Manhattan (so I can keep the job that allows me to keep the house). Preferably, we want a yard for kids, and wife MUCH prefers the more modern/open/contemporary style of home.
nice pic here:
http://photos1.blogger.com/hello/101/3984/1024/JapanLandPrices-2006-Autumn1.0.jpg
sas
184
Love that link sas.
#116 Richard: Did you really expect it would all unfold in what a month, two?
#94 Richard: BEcaue you say so? Again you fancy yourself the voixe of reason, bu tyou are not. You cannot stoamch the idea that real estate can and will, and is going down.
As I suspected you have never lived through a real down market. 650k to 400k? Just ait an see, make sure you don’t get hit by one of the pigs.
The latest in a series of idiotic articles linked through Yahoo business news.
The humorous note is that this article is intended to be upbeat. However, once you read the forecast, there is a huge disconnect. I’m sure this prediction for NYC is disquieting at best….
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/Most_Resilient_Real_Estate_Markets.html
New York City
Market trough: First quarter, 2009
Annual price growth following trough: 2.4%
Basically, the Big Apple will not stop rotting until 2009, then when it does, your capital gains won’t even keep up with inflation. This discussion does not withstand the additional expenses associated with owning over renting.
Pop Goes Out Of Earnings For Brokerages
By SCOTT PATTERSON June 12, 2007
Investment-bank earnings reports won’t provide the pop investors have come to expect to during the past few years.
For the quarter that just ended in May, earnings for the investment-bank and stock-brokerage sector are expected to be reported up 11% from a year earlier. That’s much slower than the 53% gains registered in the previous two quarters, according to Thomson Financial.
Analysts expect Bear Stearns, which reports Thursday, to post fiscal second-quarter earnings excluding one-time items of $3.50 a share, down 6% from last year. Goldman Sachs Group, which has made a habit of posting double-digit earnings growth, adds to the slack. Goldman’s per-share profits are forecast to grow by just a penny from last year. Earnings at Lehman Brothers Holdings, which reports today, are expected to be up 11%.
Bear’s housing woes are well-known. It’s highly exposed to the troubled U.S. subprime-mortgage business. The bank’s other problem has received less attention. Bear gets far less revenue than its rivals from booming overseas markets. In 2006, 87% of Bear’s revenue came from the U.S., compared with about 60% for most other brokerages, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
That has caused it to largely miss out on explosive growth in international initial public offerings, which surged 74% in dollar terms in 2006 from the previous year, according to Wachovia Capital Markets, compared with a 1% decline in the U.S.
Bear is pushing hard to grow overseas. Richard Bove, an analyst at Punk Ziegel, notes Bear’s headcount in London is up 50% in the past two years and Asia has doubled. But it might be coming too late to the international party after being fixated on the hot market at home.
great post from kannekt….I’m sure the poster was joking….
Re: What’s going on in Hoboken #10
Anonymous
What sounds better “Just Reduced” or “Price Reduced”? I am trying to decide which one grabs the buyer better.
Posted on: 2007/6/11 8:42
misleading
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/Most_Resilient_Real_Estate_Markets.html
a May Commerce Department report said that new-home sales are at a 14-year high
Chifi
My favorite is a new sign I’ve been seeing around town, “New Price”
KL
This is the reason I stick to Japanese cars.
http://www.autoblog.com/2007/06/11/video-bushs-limo-breaks-down-in-rome-italians-giggle-and-poin/
Is there a secret meaning when realtors list the street address with an asterisk? About 10% of the listings in GSMLS seem to have a street address entered as:
123 Main Street*
17 Woodlands Drive*
Why the asterisk?
May Atlantic city casino sales down 5.5%
Sopranos economic activity in NJ – $60 mil.
scribe (28)-
Usually, mortgage rate increases stimulate a buying flurry. But, as we all know, this is no normal market.
My .02 USD is that this rate increase gets taken at face value: namely, everybody out there who’s gonna get a mortgage just had 6-8% of their purchasing power yanked out from under them. That decrease in purchase power MUST be offset by price decreases, or the few buyers who are out there will not pull the trigger.
Most informed buyers understand they’re in a tremendous position of strength now. Expect them to exercise it.
RE: an asterisk in a listing street address
17 Woodlands Drive*
Looking at various listings with an asterisk, it could be realtor code for “will sell for less than asking price.”
The houses with them either have high DOM, or are absurdly overpriced.
It’s a definite trend — applies to 100% of the asterisk houses I just looked at.
The properties that closed with an asterisk, sold for below ask.
scribe (28)-
BTW…I don’t expect conventional 30-year rates to drop anytime soon. My best guess is that they will rise to 7-ish by Fall. However, I do anticipate spreads between conventionals and ARMs to widen as the yield curve normalizes.
As that happens, certain ARMs (the ones with reasonable caps/ceilings…not the toxic variety) will become good values for buyers who have a definite occupancy horizon.
To me, that’s good news, as it’s a sign of a healthy, normal mortgage market. Flat/inverted bond yields also trigger a lot of weirdness in mortgages, too. Better to see a nice, healthy curve.
Of course, you shouldn’t take what I say as the gospel truth. I sat here three weeks ago and called three 25 bp rate cuts before 12/06 (LOL!!!).
Renting (35)-
In the past 5-6 years, rate increases also had the effect of stimulating mortgage bankers to rush ever-increasing amounts of I/O, no-doc, stated income slop into a market of buyers hungry for “affordability” product.
Well, that party’s over. Now, mortgage rates must be met with an old-fashioned response: lower prices.
MJ (40)-
Right. There was ONE DAY- Monday- last week on which to lock. By Tuesday AM, it was game over. The 10 yr traded up to 5.25% overnight into Wednesday, and then it was “abandon hope” time.
The mortgage chief in my office “shadow locked” all his pending deals by 10 AM Monday. By doing that, he got a guaranteed rate on not the individual loans, but the gross dollar amount of all those loans bundled. If any individual borrower backs out, he can slide another borrower into that vacated dollar amount slot.
Officially (42)-
650K to 400K in one year?
It’s a tough market, a very tough market. But close to 40% off in 12 months? Not in the cards.
Go back and re-read some of BC Bob’s posts. The drops we’re seeing today ARE fast and precipitous…in RE terms. RE market drops are more along the lines of Chinese water torture or the death of 1,000 cuts.
If I saw prices drop 40% in 12 months, the last thing I’d do is buy into that drop. That’s not a market correction…that’s a massive economic collapse. You’d be looking at some other very nasty conditions that would preclude your purchase of RE, no matter how attractive the price.
Donald (64)-
If someone sells at a 100K loss to avoid it turning into a 130K loss, that’s smart.
Might want to take that to heart in your own, special little version of “The House that Won’t Sell”.
all (83)-
“Kill the messenger” isn’t the proper response here. If a seller gets cranky and won’t play ball, it’s not necessarily the agent’s fault.
Clot – valid point. Perhaps that is too much of a reach. Let’s look at it this way:
MLS: 2715837
It’s in Glen Rock and listed at $598k.
Last sale, per Trulia: 5/97 for $285k per zillow. Now my math is occasionally subpar, but traditional RE gains are 4% a year. Even if we stretch that to 6% over the last nine years, my math says the increase should be about $153,900. (If this is wrong, feel free to correct.)
The sellers have raised the house by $313,000 in nine years. By my count, that is a raise of 12% per year.
So is it that unfathomable to say this house shouldn’t sell for anything over $450,000, MAX?
The seller who claimed to have sold for a $100k+ loss is stupid. She will be ina very weak position when she buys her new house because no other sellers are going to even think of taking a loss this big.
I personally think starting over is full of it. She is posting nonsense just to go after me. She is a frustrated renter trying to bring down home prices.
skep (92)-
“Fair” is in the eyes of the guy across the table. The offeror’s idea of “fair” is utterly irrelevant (didja ever hear of anyone making an offer and saying, “here it is…a really low, crummy, unfair offer”?). An offer may be justified- by market conditions or by the condition of the home- but “fair” just doesn’t have any place in RE.
No knock at you, Skep…just a peeve of mine. Whenever an agent counter to me says something like “we think this is very fair”, I stop the conversation cold, get away from that agent and just sit with my clients and talk about the cold, hard facts.
“So is it that unfathomable to say this house shouldn’t sell for anything over $450,000, MAX?”
Your analogy is 100% flawed. First, how do you know that the sellers did not spend money on upgrades? If they did extensvie work, then they will see more appreciation than someone who did nothing.
Second, you cannot judge how much a home is worth by how much it sold for 9 years ago. If the sellers bought it at a bargain, you cannot hold it against them when you put in an offer. Look at what comps have sold in the last 12 months. What the home sold for 9 years ago is irrelevant. It does not matter if they bought the house for $1 or $1 million.
Not (205)-
“So is it that unfathomable to say this house shouldn’t sell for anything over $450,000, MAX?”
Yes. If a ready, willing and able buyer is out there who will pay more for that house, your statement is rendered moot.
Rates of appreciation, escalators, and other time-sensitive value calculations are great…but all that figuring gets blown out if just one buyer steps up to the plate, willing to pay more.
Residential RE resists applications of common sense and mathematical precision. It’s a gut game, played by irrational players.
Based on the photos, there hasn’t been an extensive overhaul. One can only assume that not showing photos of the bathrooms means they have not been renovated. If i had renovated, I would have shown pics.
It matters not – we’d never buy a house on a main road like that. Your kid goes outside to play and cars are whizzing by at 45 mph. No thanks.
As for comps … sorry, what a house sold for 11 months ago holds zero weight with me. The market has dramatically changed in nine months.
Anyone have info on MLS 2715837
Also in Glen Rock, doesn’t have a backyard, looks to be the smallest house on the block, and trulia says it went on sale ‘2 days ago’ which I find hard to believe. Guessing they’ve lowered a few times.
Clot-
Not fair in the hopscotch sense, just fair as in the ballpark– i.e., not something to be ignored. Notwithstanding, I will henceforth refer to my offers as “stone cold”
Now if only I could make someone an offer to someone to make this car service a little more prompt, I could leave work right now
“what a house sold for 11 months ago holds zero weight with me.”
So then you should not be worried what a house sold for 9 years ago.
Donald (206)-
Startingover has done nothing here but honestly share some stories that most of us would never divulge, were we in the same position. They contain useful information and insight for anyone thinking of buying and selling RE. The best thing about the blogosphere- and boards like this one- is that there are unselfish people willing to share the unvarnished truth of their experience (even when it’s not so pretty) in order to help someone else.
And then, there’s you: a self-inflated, paranoid megalomaniac…trying to convince the world that up is down, and down is up.
The fact that I keep responding to you scares me greatly.
“what a house sold for 11 months ago holds zero weight with me.”
So then you should not be worried what a house sold for 9 years ago.
Actually, no. If the housing market is supposed to grow at 4-5 % a year – I’m willing to go 6 – then that’s what I’ll pay. If upgrades were indeed done, we’ll factor those in. Far before looking at comps.
All the information is out there for the buyers … might as well take advantage of it.
I want to know more about starting over’s situation before I beoome convinced she is for real. How much did she pay in 2003, what did she sell for, and how much money did she spend on renovations? If she does not mind getting too personal, an address, or at least the name of the town she lives in would be nice.
skep (211)-
“Stone cold”. I like that! Say that to a RE agent- and back it up with a steely eye- and you can get some deals done.
Just like my favorite wrestler:
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://artfiles.art.com/images/-/WWE—Stone-Cold-Steve-Austin-Poster-C10006937.jpeg&imgrefurl=http://www.art.com/asp/sp-asp/_/pd–10006937/WWE_Stone_Cold_Steve_Austin.htm&h=425&w=274&sz=36&hl=en&start=3&um=1&tbnid=ouiMOko0ZOADBM:&tbnh=126&tbnw=81&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dstone%2Bcold%2Bsteve%2Baustin%26svnum%3D10%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dsafari%26rls%3Den%26sa%3DX
Not (207)-
“If the housing market is supposed to grow at 4-5 % a year…”
Where did you come up with this? What is the mechanism that makes this happen? Do RE people get together at conventions and chant, “grow at 4-5%, grow at 4-5%”?
We just came off five years of double-digit growth. We’ve had two flat-out busts within the last generation. Prices are coming down all around us right now. The only common thread among all these events is their utter unpredictability.
The only thing you can believe the RE market is “supposed” to do is confound and astonish anyone who tries to make it bend to a predictable set of parameters.
London Tops as World Commerce Center, MasterCard Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=af92ReNSibw4&refer=home
London tops a list of 50 cities as the world’s commerce center, beating New York, Tokyo and Chicago, a report by MasterCard Inc., the world’s second-biggest credit- card company, showed.
#202 Clot: What if the house was grossly over priced in the first place, I mean even grosser than the already gross asking prices (sorry for the poor attempt at humor)
For instance in my town there are 2 houses for t sale now that were on the market last year, did not sell, relisted etc. etc.
In one instance the hosue started at 579K, now down to 479k asking,and still not sold.
In the second instance another house again at 579k, now down to 459K, and still not sold.
So asking prices on both are down 100k+,are we looking at asking prices, or final sold prices?
#183 Eagle- “What other towns might you suggest in addition to Ridgewood? ”
Eagle,
There’s obviously a lot of towns in that area, so I’ll stick to what I think each neighboring town offers (take this with a grain of salt as I’m making wide generalizations, I’ve never lived in any of these towns, but I have lived in the area my whole life):
Glen Rock- similar, but cheaper, it’s almost like a smaller scale Ridgewood, you typically don’t get big yards either and the houses are older like Ridgewood, but it is cheaper, schools are still good as well.
Midland Park- nice neighborly, but it doesn’t have that main street vibe that Ridgewood has (if that is what you’re looking for). Definitely cheaper and I’d say a little more blue collar (if there even is such a thing in Bergen County), I think lower taxes. Does not carry the same name prestige as some of the neighboring towns, again if that matters to you. I believe MP kids go to Waldwick HS, which is towards the bottom of comparable neighboring town HS’s, I’m sure it’s still good, just compared to others.
HHK- has a nice main street town, small town feel. The taxes are kind of high. If you live near town, properties are small, houses are older and you’re still paying $10k in taxes for a 75×125 lot. If you live outside of town, you’re near Saddle River and then you’re at $2M, which is very nice, but very expensive.
Wash Twp- More rural, no main street town. Bigger properties for your $ and the taxes aren’t too bad. I don’t know why, but a lot of the kids go to private school for HS (IHA/St Joe’s/BC). So maybe Westwood HS isn’t perceived to be that great, although it seems pretty decent to me. Maybe because Westwood has some cheaper areas of town and apts and such so the demographics are more widespread than just a bunch of rich kids like some other towns. Although Ridgewood is like that as well and it hasn’t seemed to hurt them.
I hope that helps and if anyone thinks I’m wrong on any thoughts, please correct me.
Clot:
You haven’t read any of the many stories that mention the Stock Market has grown by an average of 12% per year since something like 1940? Whereas the real estate market has grown something like 4-5% per year?
Midland Park has its own High School, not associated with Waldwick.
Westwood Schools rightly or wrongly do nto have a good repurtation,a nd part of that is demographics, and part is that while some towns approve any and all spending.
The voters have repeatedly rejected school referendums for expansion and improvement over the years.
Washington TWP lower taxes,a nd uyes many send their kids to Catholic, but they are not all rich, but they like to think so. They consider themselves somewhere between a Ridgewood and Oradell.
As far as so blue collar, still lots of them around even in Bergen county, and many towns that would nto be considered blue collar, ahvd large segments of the population that would be considered as such.
Lokk at the demographics for many towns, I was surprised to see the large numbers who do not have a college degree, even in t e towns where you might expect those numbers to be the overwhelming majority.
3b, thanks for the clarification on MP HS. My apologies.
One thing to think about “blue collar” too is how many guys are HS graduates that made it big in contruction related fields.
There’s blue collar= working for a construction company, plumber etc.
Then there’s blue collar= owning a construction company, plumber, etc.
There’s obviously other blue collar jobs, but blue collar does not mean you can’t have lots of $.
2 years ago, I bought 2 townhouses in Bull’s Ferry on River Road, with direct river views. Since then, new construction has been rampant and prices have dropped 30%? Do you think that as the open lots fill in, the prices will stabilize? Will the burgeoning neighborhood help? If so, how long will it take?
Thanks!