This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Martha Stewart House Sells at 26% Price Cut
July 6, 2007; Page W6
Martha Stewart sold her Westport, Conn., estate for $6.7 million — 26% below the asking price.
…
Ms. Stewart, 65 years old, launched her career in the house, starting a catering business out of the basement more than 25 years ago. She put the property on the market last year for just under $9 million. Earlier this year, she offered the main house on two acres for $4.5 million, though she never cut the price on the full estate. The sale was recorded on June 15. Ms. Stewart owns several other properties, including a 153-acre Katonah, N.Y., estate, which she said last year she planned to make her full-time home.
From the Record:
Bergen offices have plenty of space
There has long been a symbiotic relationship between the office markets in North Jersey and Manhattan. As city rents increase, companies consider leasing space in North Jersey, seduced by the lure of lower rents and more available space.
But that isn’t happening these days, said Frank Gunsberg, executive vice president of the real estate firm GVA Williams in Parsippany. There are more than a dozen office buildings in Bergen County with more than 100,000 square feet available for lease, he said. According to second-quarter market data released this week by the commercial real-estate advisory firm Grubb & Ellis, Bergen is second in the state to Morris in terms of available office space, with 4.4 million square feet on the market.
“Some of those buildings haven’t made a deal in three to four years,” Gunsberg said. “So every landlord today in Bergen County is hungry. They have to be. The surprise to every broker in Bergen County is: With what’s going on in Manhattan, why aren’t these buildings in Bergen County filling up?”
…
Perhaps most significant: The asking rents at Glenpointe, which is less than 20 years old, are 25 percent to 50 percent less than current asking rents in Manhattan, Gunsberg said.
GVA Williams’ market data shows that while the demand for office space in North Jersey is little unchanged — vacancy rates in the second quarter decreased only 0.26 percent to 16.59 percent — vacancy rates in Manhattan are at a historic low of 6.9 percent.
From MarketWatch:
Nestle chief fears food price inflation: report
Food prices are set for a period of “significant and long-lasting” inflation because of demand from China and India and the use of crops for biofuels, according to the head of Nestle.
Peter Brabeck, chairman of the world’s largest food company, said rises in food prices reflected not only temporary factors but also long-term and structural changes in supply and demand, the Financial Times reported on its Web site Friday.
“They will have a long-lasting impact on food prices,” he told the Financial Times during a visit to China.
Several food companies have warned about the short-term outlook for prices, but Brabeck’s comments are among the starkest warnings that a long period of rising food prices could stoke broader inflationary pressures.
Brabeck said Nestle had first forecast higher food prices two years ago and price pressure had become apparent last year.
From NJBIZ:
Corzine to Comply with Republicans’ Request for Toll Road Plans
The Corzine administration may release details on its toll road monetization plan—a strategy to extract more revenue from the toll roads—by the middle of next week.
The administration today said it needs a four-day extension to comply with an Open Public Records Act (OPRA) request by the Republican leaders of the state Legislature to release documents related to the governor’s monetization plan. Under that timeline, details are expected to be released Tuesday or Wednesday, Republicans say.
Republicans were infuriated when Corzine announced two weeks ago that his monetization plan for the highways—expected to include toll increases—would not be released until after the November elections. Republicans perceive that as a strategy to protect the Democrats—who are running for the 120 legislative seats that are up for grabs this November—from criticism.
“New Jersey taxpayers can justifiably suspect that this will be a bad deal for them, if for no other reason than the extraordinary efforts the administration is taking to keep a lid on the plan until after this election,” said Assembly Republican Leader Alex DeCroce (R-Morris).
From the Jersey Journal:
No ‘new’ taxes, just increases and spin
Senate Democratic Majority Leader Bernard F. Kenny Jr. of Hoboken made his swan song dive into the state budget pool June 21.
He grades himself a “10.” Critics disagree.
The retiring Kenny declared that the new state budget – $33,480,957,000 – contains “record amounts of property tax relief and compassion for those in need.”
Both he and Gov. Jon S. Corzine, also of Hoboken, cited “no new taxes” while boasting about the spending plan.
But how about the tax increase approved a year ago that boosted the state sales tax from 6 to 7 percent to raise $1.4 billion in a total projected at $8,900,499,000 this fiscal year?
New Jersey residents are paying the increased levy every day.
And so are the state’s thousands of commuters, saddled with a 9.6 percent fare increased imposed June 1.
However, there is one indisputable fact: the spending document was crafted to maintain the Democrats’ control in the Legislature – 22-18 in the Senate, 50-30 in the Assembly.
…
Meanwhile, Republicans conducted their usual complain-a-thon.
“It is mortgaging New Jersey’s future for this fall’s legislative election,” Assemblyman Richard Merkt, R-Morris, charged.
“For six years we have careened from one financial crisis to financial crisis” while ignoring a projected $2.5 billion deficit next year, said Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance, R-Hunterdon.
Assembly Republican Budget Committee members argued that Democrats have now increased spending by $10 billion in the last six years.
New Risks From Housing
BusinessWeek’s JimCooper
Will the housing recession sink the economy? BusinessWeek’s Jim Cooper discusses the new risks housing brings to his investing outlook
http://feedroom.businessweek.com/index.jsp?fr_story=aca4cee9f72fa552262c57cf0b3165b5c883407d
Another personal experience piece:
At mo work one of my colleagues (young professional) bought a house in PA instead of NJ and going to take train everyday. Some inconveniences: no good way to get to work from train station and 1 hour train commute plus commuting to train station and t work from the train station, (he lives about 15 minutes drive from train station in PA).
IN his mind it is way outweighed by the fact that he got 4 bedroom/2bathroom 4 years old home on 2 acres of land in one of the nicer suburbs north of Philly for LESS than a price of cape-cod in central Jersey on a 0.14 acres, with ½ taxes!!! We are not even talking North Jersey since our company is in NJ not NYC.
His idea – for a few years keep current job and then find one in Philly. It will be about 45 minutes commute for him.
He bought his house with 0 Down on Fixed rate 30 years Jumbo loan, his 80 interest is at 6.5% and 20 interest is at 8.12%.
He closed 6 days ago. According to him it was very easy to get 0% down payment loan. His goal is to pay off 20% higher interest first and after that take his time on remaining lower interest portion.
So all this talk about no more 0 down payments loans are just not true.
On the upside – he did full documented loan, with him and his wife well qualified for the mortgage payments.
I guess it is another example of people leaving NJ – listening to him I want to do the same even though I am not very fond on 21/2 – 3 hours commute/day.
#7 Al
How much for the house? Did you ask?
Al (7)-
100% financing will never go away; now, however, you have to qualify for it (like your friend). 100%, 30-yr I/Os to full-doc, high-credit borrowers is the hot mortgage du jour.
The only problem is, people like your buddy aren’t the ones who triggered the current subprime crisis.
Al,
FICO?
jb
MY co-worker/friend by no means triggering subprime, his credit is perfect and he CAN put 10% down – he DECIDED to keep the cash available for emergencies rather putting it down on the house.
The house was 295K with seller paying closing costs – so real price of the house is 10K less – but it did not show in statistics.
When I asked him why would not seller just lower their price – he said again it was better for him to have higher mortgage and more cash on hand.
Also accoridng to him, sellers were very happy and did everything for sale to go through, as they have bough other house and tried to sell their house for 7 month…
They have fixed anything he asked them to fix very fast, in general according to him it was almost pleasant experience – as pleasant as getting 300K into debt can be.
On of the reasons he bought, is that Town Home, he was renting for 2 years in North Jersey, went up for sale for 600K, and owner offered him to buy it before it would go out to public (for mere 580K). (2 bedroom one bathroom TH – fairly nice one in good North Jersey town with train line to NYC, Which did not do him any good since he works in NJ and it was wrong train line for his commute)
He said: Thank you very much but I will pass.
His mortgage payments will be about the same as his rent.
Significantly longer commute, but his wife found a job nearby to their house, and her commute will be only 10-20 min. NO kids yet
I am sorry but I did not ask him for FICO, SSN, or other personal information. Only what he would share himself – may be next week I will know more – we are having barbeque at his new back yard :)
I assume perfect credit for both people in the family…
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Payrolls Rose 132,000 in June; Unemployment Rate at 4.5%
Employers in the U.S. added 132,000 workers to payrolls last month, wages grew and the unemployment rate held near a six-year low, signaling the job market will continue to sustain American consumers.
The increase in employment followed a 190,000 gain in May that was larger than previously reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate held at 4.5 percent for a third month.
Wage gains are giving consumers the means to cope with near- record gasoline prices and declining home values, keeping spending and the economy expanding into the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve remains concerned a low unemployment rate and rising labor costs will lead to higher prices, one reason policy makers aren’t convinced inflation has been tamed.
“We’re seeing good job growth, consistent with an economy expanding at a decent pace,” Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital in New York, said before the report. “The low level of unemployment is a key concern for the Fed when they look at inflation pressures.”
Economists projected payrolls would rise by 125,000 following a previously reported 157,000 May increase, according to the median of 81 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate was forecast to hold at 4.5 percent.
…
Workers’ average hourly earnings rose 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, after a 0.4 percent increase the previous month. Economists expected a 0.3 percent increase. Earnings were up 3.9 percent from June of last year.
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 135,000 workers last month after hiring 199,000 more workers in May, the report showed. Government payrolls increased by 40,000, the biggest increase since September. Retailers cut 24,200 jobs in June after adding 13,200 in May.
10y at 5.19% on the payroll data.
jb
Payroll is still solid. I’ve been getting more and more emails from headhunters for the the IT/Financial sector jobs. I could jump ship every six months and make more money. The economy is solid and houses in the NYC/NJ area are not going to change much. I keep saying it. I wish a financial tsunami would wipe everything clean so we all could swoop in but I just don’t see it happening. A lot of you keep saying it will but I don’t think so.
June birth death model adjustment – 156K
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
What percentage of these added jobs are in goods and services that we can trade with other countries? This seems to me to be an important figure when trying understand just how solid the payroll numbers are.
Also, any comments on Crudele at the NY Post? He basically calls the report BS.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07052007/business/phantom_jobs_numbers_could_be_feds_undoing_business_john_crudele.htm
I could jump ship every six months and make more money.
Then why aren’t you changing jobs if the opportunity is there?
Gary, sit back and watch the global race to raise interest rates.
Then why aren’t you changing jobs if the opportunity is there?
Nod, I would, it would sure make that $1m mark in Montclair a heck of alot more palatable.
jb
Rich,
I guess for obvious reasons. I do like my current position a lot. My boss is great, I like the company so… My point is that I have multiple opportunities. Maybe I’m too humble. :)
Are we talking “national” or NJ here?
jb
gary – if the money is 25%+ better elsewhere they are taking advantage of you. At least use this to get your comp closer to the market. in a downturn you may not see your loyalty reciprocated
Aaron,
I’m all ears. :)
Job-hop enough times and eventually it really starts to make that resume look less than solid.
gary: We have had this discussion before, what type of jobs, hwat type of incomes. If all is well, and prices will not fall, than why is all the inventory sitting?
syncmaster,
Yup, that’s another reason.
I don’t know, we just got our loan and were put through the ringer for it even though we had money down, extremely high credit scores and high paying jobs. We had to provide bank account statements back through February because they didn’t believe that the downpayment wasn’t a loan (we moved the money from one savings account to the other so it looked like it mysteriously appeared there). We got our loan through Wells Fargo, though, and I hear that they are cutting down on the funny money, so perhaps they are being hypervigilant.
To me it seems much harder to get a loan then I expected.
Gary, I agree with you though about the job market. I was looking recently and the calls were pouring in. Split about evenly between NJ and Manhattan. I have a friend who is looking now (also IT) and he has gotten great response – in his case, mostly Manhattan, salaries in 80k-105k range. Money isn’t that good for Manhattan but the jobs are there.
3b,
Certain inventory appears to be sitting. The more desirable homes in the so-called sought after places are moving.
The jobs I’m talking about are in the IT/Financials in the NY/NJ area and the salary range is around the six figures, give or take. I receive a couple of emails a week, especially lately. And they’re not canned emails, they’re the “Hi Gary, just checking in” type personal emails.
I know we discussed this ad nauseum, but nothing has swayed me yet. Somtimes I get a glimmer of hope and then after investigating further, it’s WHAM… back down to earth.
syncmaster Says:
July 6th, 2007 at 9:16 am
Gary, I agree with you though about the job market. I was looking recently and the calls were pouring in. Split about evenly between NJ and Manhattan. I have a friend who is looking now (also IT) and he has gotten great response – in his case, mostly Manhattan, salaries in 80k-105k range. Money isn’t that good for Manhattan but the jobs are there.
I though everybody in Manhattan was making 200k+++++
With mere 80K+ salary you cant buy anything in NJ (even with 100K ) – sorry but this post does not do justice to home prices not falling…
3b. You keep saying that inventory is high. Het out there and you’ll see that its high for the +1m homes and poor quality in the 7k-9k homes, if these even exist. You can’t just look at realtor.com or the MLS. You’ll be surprised when you actually see the houses in person. There’s always something wrong like a leeky basement, mold in the basement, or its backs up to an office complex.
3b. You keep saying that inventory is high. Get out there and you’ll see that its high for the +1m homes and poor quality in the 7k-9k homes, if these even exist. You can’t just look at realtor.com or the MLS. You’ll be surprised when you actually see the houses in person. There’s always something wrong like a leeky basement, mold in the basement, or its backs up to an office complex.
NJ GAL,
We also used Wells Fargo late last year for our jumbo loan and it was almost too easy. This was of course before the current state of affairs in lending. We switched to Wells Fargo when the rates dropped a quarter point and I realized that there was no reason to stay with my current broker since the penalty to jump ship was zero and the relock would have cost a couple grand. Then it just hit me one day, why don’t I just find another lender? I did and Wells Fargo got the loan put together in the span of about a week. I know the loan was full doc but I only had to send them the most basic of info to get the loan. All they needed to verify my job was a call to my boss. It was almost too easy. Then again the 20% was already in escrow so maybe that helped a bit. I bet they have tightened the process considerably though since then.
Al #30,
Isn’t that why there is two income earners prevalent in the NY/NJ area?
Mike,
I have no idea why this was like this – it was full doc jumbo as well. They were also REALLY slow about the whole thing – we had to extend our mortgage contingency. I don’t think there was ever a question that we were getting the loan, it was just the constant questioning, etc. that surprised me. They still have to verify employment, but apparently that’s just something they do a day before the close to make sure we’re still employed.
JB #2,
Thanks for posting the article about office space. It highlights an important point that has long-term, negative implications for northern New Jersey home values.
New Jersey-based companies that expanded rapidly between the 1950s and 1990s (such as Merck and AT&T) aren’t world leaders anymore and are shrinking their New Jersey footprints, in part because the creative class they rely on to invent new products doesn’t want to live in New Jersey today.
On the other hand, New York has retained its leading position as the world’s center of commerce and continues to attract the world’s best and brightest.
Smart people and growing companies, more than ever, want to be in New York. The same can’t be said for New Jersey. I have worked in both places and can confirm that the difference in worker quality is very wide. New York is characterized by entrepreneurial go-getters working in a truly meritocratic environment while New Jersey features burned out, greying middle managers content with doing the bare minimum to keep their jobs until they retire in 10 years.
Effect on home prices: good for Hudson County waterfront towns with easy Manhattan transport links and urban amenties, but bad for the rest of northern New Jersey.
The OFHEO data shows that New Jersey house prices increased at an compound annual growth rate of 6.7% between 1980 and 1Q2007, a period that included housing booms and busts. I don’t think the state can match that pace of growth going forward.
NJ Gal,
At least it is done and now you can hopefully just enjoy the rest of the experience. For us it was our first home after renting in Manhattan since college. Getting those keys for the first time at the closing was a surreal experience and I wish you guys the best of luck in your new home.
Al,
Come to P’way. Prices are falling.
This is an older piece, from February, but it highlights most of the concerns I have about the NJ state economy.
Conflicting trends cloud hiring outlook
New Jersey is at an economic crossroads.
A year ago, economists predicted the state would add 35,000 to 44,000 jobs in 2006 — a mediocre yet solid performance.
Then, midway through the year, two economists released a study that showed a growing, long-term departure of well-paid New Jersey jobs for lower-cost states.
Worse still, employment figures released last month show the state actually created only about 21,000 jobs last year, less than a third of the number generated during similar economic growth spurts in the ’80s and ’90s.
So where does that leave New Jersey, with its declining manufacturing base, drug industry that leads the world, ascendant service sector and reputation — warranted, or not — for being a tough place to do business?
“We are an economy at risk,” said Joseph Seneca, one of two Rutgers University economists who reported the ongoing job loss.
…
Seneca and another Rutgers economist, James Hughes, expect the state’s economic performance in 2007 to be much like that in 2006: lackluster job creation but solid gains in personal income. They predict the economy will grow by about 21,000 jobs, or about one-half of one percent.
“It’s sort of treading water,” Hughes said.
…
Those measures are designed to tackle what Hughes describes as a worrisome dynamic in which the local economy creates few high-paying jobs but large numbers of low-paid positions in big-box stores, restaurants and hotels.
“We still have a very powerful core economy,” he said. “The problem is, corporate America is directing growth largely outside of New Jersey.”
Thanks Mike – same for us – first house after renting in Hoboken since law school. Should be an interesting experience. I just can’t wait to bust open the fancy new grill my parents got my husband for Father’s Day. We’ve been too long without a grill…
#32nnjbuble:
I concur with your assessment of the high inventory. I am looking in a little bit lower price range: $600-$800K and am shocked at the garbage I have seen. (Although there is plenty of it to see :>).) Last weekend, I saw a “colonial” that was really a converted cape–the second floor rooms went all the way out to the eaves so you couldn’t stand up in more than half of the upstairs bedroom space. Also saw a colonial that had been rented–the upstairs was trashed–everything needed replacement–floors, walls, kitchens, bathrooms– and the basement was wet and covered with fuzzy mold. Could have been mine for $799,900. Yeah right.
Now, for my rant for today:
What has really pushed me into the renter’s camp is the unwillingness of the salespeople I am working with to present offers that are not within a few percent of ask. Even when the house is clearly overpriced, I have been told not to bother to submit an offer that is 10% below since it will never be accepted for such a fine house. The last “fine house” needed new kitchens and baths and was on a busy corner. It had been on the market for nearly 6 months but the salesperson refused to present an offer 10% below since the sellers had had an offer at close to ask. Why didn’t they sell it at that price? The buyer panicked and backed out in attorney review! The salesperson tells me this with a straight face and expects me to play her game. Argh! I cannot deal with this nonsense!
Clot, guess what!
— new mls# same price, same agent, go figure!
Rich in NNJ- any word on $ for 240 paramus and 481 eastgate?
sl
Al, it can buy an apartment or a small house decently far out.
Plus what is his wife making? If shes making 40-60K they have 120~140K a year, and you can get a huge loan (6X 8X?) for that much, especially if your not lazy and moonlight once in a while to help pay it off.
Housing prices for some of us even if they drop 25-50% are going to be a stretch be it a townhome, or a condo, or a SFH. So you have to work hard and cut back.
I know that if I get married and we need to move from the 40K Co-op into a 400K~600K 1 bedroom condo that I will be working 2 Rn jobs for a year or so to get a really big downpayment, so the mortgage is doable.
Even rents have gone up so much that my BIL moonlights alot as a bouncer because Medics don’t make enough money to live on LI any more.
when every country was making money cheap it didn’t hurt their currency because everyone else was doing it. Now the opposite is true.
Startingover, they are required by law to present all offers I think. I would call them on it.
Those critical of Realtors and the specifically, those Realtors that own/operate the MLS systems will have a field day with this..
DOM / CDOM No Longer In Client Reports
With the changing market there has been much discussion, contention and even litigation over Days on Market and Cumulative Days on Market figures.
One view is that it hurts sellers, another is that it helps buyers.
The bottom line is that you, the real estate professional are in the best position to explain to your customer – buyer or seller – what the true DOM figure is and what it means.
To that end, the SoCalMLS BOD, after getting input from MLS Committees and other practitioners, have decided to remove the DOM and CDOM fields from all Client reports. You will still have this information available to you in the Agent reports, which also link to the history report for each listing. The history report gives you a much more precise overview of what transpired for a particular listing. With that ammunition you should be prepared to better explain to your client the ramifications of the DOM data.
Gary (15)-
Nice dose of self-loathing to start the day.
syncmaster Says:
July 6th, 2007 at 9:39 am
Al,
Come to P’way. Prices are falling.
lol I am in Piscataway – still renting….
Now about comments for double earner families – everyone seems to be commenting on this….
1. Not every person in US Married.
2. One word: Kids.
3. Second word: Childcare costs.
4. Costs associated with Wife working: (Commuting, clothes, food(if wife is working you do nto have time to cook as much), etc.)
5. Higher taxes, possible AMT.
6. In the end unless wife is making less than 40K+ it is not worth for her to work (In my opinion anyways unless she can get a job in NYC at GOOGLE – their benefits are crasy….)
Finally last one:
What IF one of two earners looses a job?? Good buy home??
Not everybody works for the goverment.
NJGal–I think that you are right that a listing broker has to present any offer presented to them. My problem is with “buyer brokers” (it’s now happened with 2 different salespeople) who won’t even write up the offer to present to the listing broker. I am sure that I could force them to do it–but it rankles to have to argue with someone to try to buy something on which they will earn a healthy commission.
I suppose I could just write up an offer myself but I am finding the whole scene very off-putting. I am offended by such blatant attempts to manipulate me. When someone not only wants to play with my toys but also insists on playing according to her own weird rules, my natural reaction is to pick up my toys and go home.
Still Looking,
The estimated closing dates for those properties are around July 20.
I know that if I get married and we need to move from the 40K Co-op into a 400K~600K 1 bedroom condo that I will be working 2 Rn jobs for a year or so to get a really big downpayment, so the mortgage is doable.
Not everybody can get two jobs with their profession……
For me, I looked at jobs outside of my profession – I do not feel, that making 7$/hour will help paying for 600K home.
Second Job choices are limited for people who have regular hours job.
Second Job choices are limited for people who have regular hours job.
So true. Ask me when I get off work and my answer usually is “I don’t know”.
Rich, thanks — (I forgot!) – time to get more coffee…. eesh.
sl
Clotpoll #47,
Thank You! You told me months ago that not much was going to change. I guess you were right.
startingoverinNJ
That’s the game. You have to find a decent agent. Perhaps a recommendation from a friend or family member. I don’t think a 10% haircut if too out of the ordinary but you should look at the comps for the area and make a reasonable offer or they just won;’t accept it. I made an offer on a home and the seller wouldn’t come down much at all so I just walked away. One month later they had reduced the price by 25k and called me back. They had the audacity to ask if I was interested in their new price instead of asking me if I would reconsider my original offer.
I know that if I get married and we need to move from the 40K Co-op into a 400K~600K 1 bedroom condo that I will be working 2 Rn jobs for a year or so to get a really big downpayment, so the mortgage is doable.
Also As Nurse you have a choice of moving to any part of the country – there is huge shortage of nurces and buy bigger better house with ONE job instead small condo with two jobs.
But ohh well what do i know.
I know that if I get married and we need to move from the 40K Co-op into a 400K~600K 1 bedroom condo that I will be working 2 Rn jobs for a year or so to get a really big downpayment, so the mortgage is doable.
Also As Nurse you have a choice of moving to any part of the country – there is huge shortage of nurses and buy bigger better house with ONE job instead small condo with two jobs.
But ohh well what do i know.
gary (53)-
It’s changing. It just goes slow.
It seems like everybody these are making $100,000. Time to give it a little adjustment. $200k is the new $100k. Meaning, you’re not allowed to say “I make six-figures” unless you make $200k or more.
You’re right startingover. It’s the listing agent that has to do that. I had my “buyer” broker huff and puff about certain offers we made but f– her. She’s useless and I made her present them. She did and much to her surprise, the sellers negotiated. The first time I think we offered 705 on a house reduced to 769 from 799 (I had wanted to offer below 700K, but hubby did not – he won that argument). We eventually negotiated to 740 and later pulled our offer for other reasons, but I was not ashamed at all to offer almost 10% below ask. What’s even better was that when the sellers initially refused to counter by more than 5K, we said ok, offer off the table. They came back crying the next day. Needless to say, their crappy house still sits there. They have since reduced the price by another 20K but no bites – too many other places around that are better.
StartingoverinNJ
I am not sure why your agent will not put an offer in for you. I love putting in low offers,not if they are 95-100% financing but anything more than that I love ( I still do it at the 95% level, but not with as much joy!)
Also I notice alot of agents when putting in a low offer use a shortened form. To me that says here’s an offer I don’t like it either but if you give me a counter I might right up an official offer. My lowball offers always go in in contract form. That show’s my confidence in the offer.
KL
clotpoll,
At this pace, I’ll be dead. I’m looking for momentum.
Even when the house is clearly overpriced, I have been told not to bother to submit an offer that is 10% below since it will never be accepted for such a fine house.
…
It had been on the market for nearly 6 months but the salesperson refused to present an offer 10% below since the sellers had had an offer at close to ask.
I’ve never understood why someone would choose to work with a buyer’s agent that they didn’t feel was working for them, or had their best interests in mind. Just who is working for who here?
An agent with a 50/50 split at 5% is making $6,000+ on a $500k home. To give you an idea of how I look at that commission, I see two weeks of full-time work at $75/hr. That is a huge price to be paid for turning down buyers. Sorry, but those agents must be making some serious money to be able to short-change buyers by not doing the legwork they are being compensated for.
I’ll never tell a client that I won’t present an offer. Not accepted? So what? We just move right on to the next offer, we’ve got the luxury of inventory right now.
Too many agents feel entitled to big commissions without the legwork. Can you blame them? For many it’s all they’ve ever known.
jb
With July 4 behind us the ’07 spring season is officially over. If you read this blog from 6-12 mo ago few expected the NNJ RE market to hold up as well as it did this spring.
How do you think the market will look in a yr? My money is on flat to today.
Maybe Clot or KL can chime in here.
One of the first things told to me when I said that I wanted to represent buyers alone was, “buyers are liars”. Yes buyers, until you’ve proved yourself sincere, you are a liar.
The most interesting part was I heard exactly the same thing from every agent I had asked for advice.
I was told that I’d be wasting my time, gas, and money basically babysitting buyers that had no intention of buying. I’d be the equivalent of an unpaid tour guide.
Lowballers? These folks don’t want to buy, they want a deal handed to them on a silver platter. Something for nothing. They are always smarter then everyone else. As an agent you’ll take nothing but abuse from them, and in the end the outcome is always the same. They don’t buy, and if they do, they’ll end up using someone else anyway.
It’s no wonder folks get the cold shoulder when talking to agents for the first time. Before the word “overpriced” makes it out of your lips, you are already tagged a liar.
jb
#2 JB Citigroup locating over 2000 people to Buffalo, JP Morgan Consolidating in Ohio (Banc One) this is where some of the jobs are going, not to north Jersey office space.
If that is needed, they go to Jersey city, and that is about it.
The whol north Jersey real estat emarket will be affected by this, even the urban waterfront areas in Hudson county.
Maybe Clot or KL can chime in here.
Not that either of them belong in that camp or subscribe to that mentality.
jb
My 2cents:
3 months ago-
House was listed at $575K.
I made offer of $475.
Seller would not counter, waiting for better offer.
House is now $515. And house doesn’t look that good to me anymore.
Seller lost.
#29 gary Too bad you were not around for the late 80’s early 90’s;it would be seared in your memory forever (hopefully).
I for one did not expect the market to implode.
But as far as holding up well, I don’t see it that way. Sales continue to drop Y-O-Y after the first quarter (Bergen County 2nd quarter down 5% compared to last year). And all sales, from my perspective are due to reduced prices. It’s the rare home that sells above asking these days.
A year from now… either the same slow drop in prices and sales or prices will need to come down faster in order for sales to increase again.
IMHO,
Rich
3b #68,
I remember the late 80’s and early 90’s. I think other factors come into play that didn’t exist back then. Technology and globalization have changed the game. The pace and competition to live and survive in this area is beyond what anyone thought or expected.
#63 YOu think this market has held up? Actually if you go back 6 to 12 months ago, you will find that much that has hsppened to date was not expected to happen as quickly as it did.
#70 gary I do not buy that, this are has always been expensive, and there was always a premium to live here.
No what drove this, was artifically low rates, loose/leax lending standards, and grred and fear, the rest is all BS.
But its wrapped up that way with a pretty bow added to make it look good.
And we still have all this inventory just sitting. Where are all the 200k+ a year buyers, why are they not utilizing still historically low rates? Oh its that little matter of affordability, refer to the begining of my post.
#32 I have been out there, and I have seen crap boxes, to decent, to excellent. The proble is the asking prices are still too high, simple as that.
You may not like the inventory that is out there, but it is our there, especially in the Frranklin Lakes and Saddle Rivers.
#64 I think I am about to unintentionally reinforce that stereotype of the lowball buyer who will walk. I am so angry at the agent who refused to consider my making a low offer that I am unlikely to work with her further. So, there you have it . . .
What is the process if you have seen a house with one agent but want to have another present an offer? There are a number of places I am ready to bid on but I don’t want to deal further with either of the two agents who showed me those properties.
(Although I generally used one agent, who came well recommended, she would not show houses in a particular town that she did not consider a “good investment” so I saw properties in that town with someone else. Guess that should have been a tip-off of problems to come. Interestingly, the agent I used in the “undesireable” town didn’t want to present a low offer (approx 10% below ask on another property) either.)
I do have someone who I encountered late in the game, who I feel has dealt with me fairly and was supportive and helpful in the deal I couldn’t make because the sellers wouldn’t close until 90 days after atty review. But I’ve already seen the houses I’d make offers on with one of the other two agents.
I know I created this mess. Don’t want to compound it by creating a lawsuit over the commission.
3b,
Out of curiosity, what do think prices, inventory, etc. will be a year from now?
Grim, you said:
Lowballers? These folks don’t want to buy, they want a deal handed to them on a silver platter. Something for nothing. They are always smarter then everyone else. As an agent you’ll take nothing but abuse from them …
That was the experience with my late aunt’s house in PA. Right on day one of the showing, people were coming through the door and being argumentative about the asking price to the point of being abusive towards the agent. My cousins were shocked at some of the behavior.
The agent told them politely but firmly that since the house had just gone on the market, she didn’t see any reason why they should consider reducing the asking price.
And this was a four-room ranch with an asking price of $83,000. Perfect condition, great location – high up on a mountain, great views.
Most of the houses in the area were built around the turn-of-the-century through the 1920’s – Victorian or country style – big, old, drafty, big set of stairs. My aunt and uncle had one of those, too, and ditched the big house later in life to build a simpler house all on one level. Lots of interest in this house. Sold in a week or two to a single man.
gary (61)-
This decline is actually moving FAST by historical standards.
Perhaps a prescription for sedatives would be of value to you?
From MarketWatch:
Negative housing data pile up
Meritage Homes Corp. said its preliminary home orders fell 28% and its cancellations bumped up in another sign that builders continue to struggle with a slumping housing market with scant relief seen in the near future.
The Scottsdale, Ariz.-based company Friday said its preliminary second-quarter home orders fell 28% from a year earlier to $502 million, while its cancellations rose to 37% of gross orders, up from 32% in the year-ago quarter and from 27% in the first quarter of 2007.
“Weak demand and high inventory levels have increased competition among home builders, pressuring margins despite reductions in new home starts, lot supplies and operating costs,” said Chief Executive Steven Hilton in a statement.
Since when has an opening bid of 10% below asking become a “lowball” offer? Aren’t the sellers assuming the buyer will ultimately end up somewhere in the middle, with a selling price of around 5% below? Why is that not worthy of consideration anymore?
# 79 Possiblebuyer
All buyers should know the comps in a given area that they’re bidding on. Lets say a home is priced @ $900k and the avg comps are $850k. If you go and bid $800k, the seller would rather lower the price to $875k or $850k to attract more buyers rather than take you lowball offer. Look at the comps and make your offer based on that. Take a haircut off the comps.
I think sellers are still overpricing their homes and the ones that do see their houses just sit.
grim (64)-
Buyers aren’t liars. They may not know all their options- or reserve the right to change their minds- but it’s up to the buyer agent to provide information, educate and watch for the signs that a buyer’s mindset is changing. And, if the agent provides nothing of value on an ongoing basis, the expectation of loyalty in return is laughable. Right about now, a good stable of ready, qualified buyers is a damn nice thing for any agent to have; much better to go the extra mile cultivating those relationships than taking listings that have no chance of ever selling in this environment.
As far as lowballs go, it seems as many here have a hard-and-fast percentage they like to take off all asking prices when they come in with an offer. This is tough, because every listing is different. That POS Cape moldering on the market for 220 days with no offers is qualitatively different from a sparkling Colonial in a “train town” that priced to recent comps. Take 10% off the Cape’s asking? Heck, it might not be enough. Take 10% off that Colonial? You’re going nowhere.
I’ll table ANY offer that isn’t so stupid that it’ll ultimately prevent the buyer from actually getting the home he wants. However, I do occasionally refuse to write up stupid lowballs that have no basis in reality. I have every right in the world not to have my time wasted.
#80 – I always look at comps, but I am referring to the issue of realtors and sellers categorizing anything 10% below as a “lowball,” even if the house has been sitting a year with no other offers. Even if the asking price on the house is more than 10% above comps.
#75 I think prices will be back to around 2004/late 2003 levels, perhaps lower. I think sellers will be much more willing to negogiate, and that serious sellers will slash prices accordingly.
I may be wrong, and I am sure some will say wishful thinking on my part, but this slow drip decline is not going going to correct the market.
Gary relax,
Prices are dropping. they hae dropped so fast we are seriously thinking about staying in NNJ instead of moving to the south (charlotte, austin).
#81 clot: How do you define recent?IMHO 3 months is recent, 6 months and before is ancient history.
Scribe–
I’m both a buyer and a seller this year, and I think we can reasonably acknowledge differences in lowball offers. I got a lowball offer on the day I reduced my house by 10%. It was for an amount more than 10% below that. I rejected the offer, preferring to give the market a little time at the new price. But some one made the offer for those folks, ill-timed as it seemed to me.
I also dealt with some poorly mannered potential buyers. That’s just the nature of things, I think.
Ultimately, I sold my house about 60 days after I put it on the market for an amount well below the initial listing price, but comparable to the prices on the few other late spring sales that have closed in my town. (Didn’t know the sale prices on those house when I agreed to sell my house.)My contract purchasers are, by the way, two of the most spoiled, self-centered yuppie morons I have ever had the misfortune to meet, but my lawyer tells me their money is green and I don’t have to go to the closing.
When I want to make an offer on a house that has been on the market a long time (and we can all agree that many of the houses out there now have been on the market a very long time) without a serious price reduction and that has substantial repair or location issues, I don’t think it is inappropriate to offer 10% or so below ask. I would expect the agent conveying the offer to explain why the reason that the offer is so low (your kitchen is outdated, you are on a very busy street, etc.) without being insulting or impolite. The Sellers can always reject the offer or counter. And given the agents I have experienced, who try to sell their customers on the need to come close to the asking price no matter what, the greater fool may eventually blunder along and pay the sellers what they want.
That’s life.
As far as lowballs go, it seems as many here have a hard-and-fast percentage they like to take off all asking prices when they come in with an offer. This is tough, because every listing is different. That POS Cape moldering on the market for 220 days with no offers is qualitatively different from a sparkling Colonial in a “train town” that priced to recent comps. Take 10% off the Cape’s asking? Heck, it might not be enough. Take 10% off that Colonial? You’re going nowhere.
“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.” – Oscar Wilde
jb
And #80 – why would those sellers not just counter at 875 then?
bairen,
What towns are you looking at and what type of house interests you?
“#128 gary NO area is insulated, none, period.”
Ever hear of the Hoboken and Jersey City waterfront?
Once again, 3b has no idea what he is talking about!
” Look at the comps and make your offer based on that.”
A lot of times this does not work because, in many towns, the last time a comparable home sold was in 2005.
3b (85)-
Agreed.
troll (91)-
That- in and of itself- IS a comp. Especially when that price range is jammed with festering inventory.
#81 Clot
In northern Somersel County (Bridgewater, Warren, Bernards et al) I haven’t seen anything sparkling in my $600-$800K price range. Occasionally, the kitchen or the baths have been updated, but rarely both. The basement may be dry (often isn’t) but it will not be finished. The master bedroom will not accommodate a king-sized bed. If the house is a little nicer, it will be on a busy street or back on a swamp or a shopping center.
I am discouraged. I understand why people get in over their heads. I am probably going to rent, since that appears to get me a better quality house for the same amount of money.
#90 RT: Like I said no area is immune inclding the waterfront.
Are you so densae ast to think that area is bubble wrapped that NYC will produce thousands of jobs that will enable young people to flock to those water front areas and pay big bucks etc. Tell that to Citigroup and JP MOrgan.
I now what I am talking about, I am not the one who bought in Cliffside and thinks its Saddle River south.
You have live in NJ a couple of years,and now you are the expert, what a joke.
staringover,
you will just need to buy something that needs updating. Buyers today want everyhting perfect, like grantie counters and marble floors, but many of them are not willing to pay extra for them.
#89 Gary,
We have been looking at Berkeley Heights, New Providence, Chatham, Madison, Summitt, Basking Ridge. We’ve looked at the whole variety from capes, ranches, colonials from the 1920s and 30s (my favorite). In Chatham and Madison back in Feb pos capes on tiny lots needing renovation were listed for 499 to 550k. Now same pos are starting at 449. There are a few nice colonials in Summitt for 499k and even bi-levels and splits for 549. It seems like the houses that were 599-to 649 are now starting at 549k and the 550 to 599k back in Feb are now 499 to 549.
Berkely Heights actually had a cape listed at 375k that was in good shape but sold before we could see it.
3b,
Sales contracts for new construction in Hudson County have surged.
I am also not the one who thinks that Wyckoff is better than Alpine!
“Are you so densae ast to think that area is bubble wrapped that NYC will produce thousands of jobs that will enable young people to flock to those water front areas and pay big bucks”
Actually, you are right. If NYC does not produce thousands of high paying jobs, young people will be priced out of NYC and they will have to come to the NJ waterfront.
Methinks NJ is starting to be leapfrogged by anyone left in NY that’s looking to leave? Why relocate to NJ when you can save a lot more money going further down the coast or out to Vegas, especially if NJ’s tax environment would make it much easier to encourage employees to relocate along with you?
As far as IT in the NYC metro area goes, I was finding very little that didn’t involve 1099 and/or ties. My brother, who is now looking for work in the same field, is running into the same thing. To this day (1+ year after leaving for DE) I still get headhunter calls and mails, even though I disabled any online resume stuff back when I started the new job. But, the way I reason it, I don’t see much of a future in back-office technology in high-cost areas. There’s no reason to pay $$$ per sq.ft and huge Con Ed bills to drive computers that could be driven equally well somewhere else with far lower rents and utility costs. Jobs tending those machines will follow.
OTOH if you want to deal with surly brokers and their smelly shoes kicked under those trading stations, be my guest.
Here is a classic example of priced out NYers moving to NJ:
Falling in Love With Hoboken’s Prices
UNTIL their marriage last fall, Elana and James Nanscawen weren’t fussy about their living situation. Their one-bedroom rental in the financial district was perfectly adequate, if small.
“We planned so that the wedding was our focus, and we got that financial piece of it out of the way,” Mr. Nanscawen said. The same held for their honeymoon in Mexico. By spring, though, they were growing impatient to buy a bigger place where it would not be so inordinately difficult to do everything — cooking, entertaining, doing the laundry to her liking and keeping the place tidy enough for his.
When the two met three years ago, Elana Sebring, now 25, was sharing a three-bedroom rental in East Midtown with three friends from Marist College in Poughkeepsie, where she had studied fashion. The group paid about $2,400 a month.
Mr. Nanscawen, 34, an Australian, was living in a studio in Bensonhurst, Brooklyn, for $800 a month. After he graduated from the University of Tasmania in Hobart, he headed for Kalamazoo, Mich., where his mother is from. He is now an information technology manager for the Thomson Corporation in the financial district.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/01/realestate/01hunt.html?ex=1340942400&en=ed025e38e6686045&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Where is the evidence prices are dropping in NNJ? It seems the data is not all in one place. I’ve been using county records to calculate price per square foot across neighborhoods in Hudson County, but the data is never in one place (e.g. sq footage info for condos is non existant as far as I can tell)
I would guess that condos are getting hit hard, with single family detached houses East of the turnpike hit the least, but what do you guys think? Where can I find this information?
bairen,
Thanks. Those are beautiful areas, good luck in your search.
Condos are getting hit hard in P’way. Some 2br units in P’way have sold for about 180k in the last few months. 3br condo units used to be over 400K, now down to 325K. Of course, P’way is faaaaar away from the Gold Coast, I am sure things are more stable out there.
Evil,
The price per square footage GREATLY varies depending on the view and building ammenities. Perhaps you would be better off disregarding the square foot price and determine the price based on the # of bedrooms.
3b #65,
The Jersey City office market is booming. Mack-Cali owns 6 buildings there and 5 are at least 98% leased. The 6th is 92% leased. Meanwhile, the statewide office vacancy rate is in the high teens. Jersey City office buildings are filling up and rents there are the highest in New Jersey, by far. The only office market that comes close to Jersey City today is Short Hills.
New York financial firms are very profitable and very busy today. They need more people to handle all the new business, and they’re actively looking for more space in Manhattan. Rents are skyrocketing. For instance, the Durst building at 6th and 42nd is asking for $180 per sf rents and getting tenants to pay it.
When these firms need large blocks of space, they often find it in Jersey City. Don’t be surprised to see another office building go up in Jersey City very soon.
“Of course, P’way is faaaaar away from the Gold Coast, I am sure things are more stable out there.”
Yes they are. The condo market in Cliffside Park is quite strong. Recently, a $1.3 million condo here sold in 2 weeks for onlly $30k under asking price.
pre,
Are you in commercial?
jb
#101 – how do an IT manager and a fashion student afford 700K for an apartment? Does he really make close to 300K a year?
JB,
Yes.
“Perhaps you would be better off disregarding the square foot price and determine the price based on the # of bedrooms.”
Good tip, but aren’t bedrooms of widely varying size? I know that they can only be a certain size to be called a bedroom in some places (no idea what that size is) but still aren’t there wide variations in room sizes? Some 1 BRs I have seen are like, around 500 total sq feet, wheras others have I think, like 1200 total.
JB,
I have to agree with clot, even though I love to write em, their needs to be a basis. Last week while not turning down the option to write I gently let them know that 25% off list based solely on the fact that’s all they could afford is wasting everyones time and dashing their hopes. They came into an open house that was way out of their range. They were not established clients, it was not a grossly overpriced home ( according to the neighborhood it was slightly under last summer’s sales) But 10% off is not a ridiculus offer, at least for the next year and maybe more.
KL
Oh and that buyer’s are liars thing I have heard it too I like it because it rhymes better than buyers are changer minders and you have to be minder readers. That just does’nt flow. (-:
They may not know all their options- or reserve the right to change their minds- but it’s up to the buyer agent to provide information, educate and watch for the signs that a buyer’s mindset is changing
See – Changer minders (-;
KL
#106 Dont be surprised to see more firms relocate large amounts of people outside of this area entirely as Citi and JP Morgan are doing.
AS far as financial firms doing well, yes they have although this year will not be like the last few years. And except for your main corporate presence, there is no need to keep thousands employed in this area.
And when Wall St takes a big dump again, and it will guaranteed, those of us who have been in the business for some time know that, than all bets are off.
#99 And work where “oh knowledgeable one”?
Anybody have any knowledge of how Rahway & Linden are doing with their new condos and existing Cape Cods? Seems like asking prices are much lower these days.
#98 Wyckoff Is better than Alpine, it is a real town, not an enclave. Befroe you start discussing my county, make sure you know hat you are talking about.
Granite is passe, and for the masses, the truly weatlhy home buyers do not look for that.
“Wyckoff Is better than Alpine, it is a real town, not an enclave.”
The people at Forbes Magazine seem to disagree with you.
So what do the true wealthy homeowners look for 3b? I have been inside numerous $6 million mansions and they all had granite counters.
3b.
Yes the world comes to and end. I’ve heard that before. I heard that during the dot.com bust, 9/11, LTCM, Asian financial contagion in 97, and now sub-prime. This economy is resiliant. Period. The last 9 out of 10 recessions were caused by the fed raising rates too far. These other market events will not do anything significant to our economy. Fed policy and fiscal policy matter more.
The RE market is just not red hot. Its fine in Bergen County. Not sure what will knock it down.
3b is making no sense today. According to Forbes, Alpine is the wealthiest town in NJ, has the highest property values, and is the #1 “star studded” neighborhood in the country!
3b, you might want to stop drinking the tap water and buy some bottled. It seems that there is a problem with the water in RIDGEWOOD based on your nonsense.
#109 – maybe her parents are helping her out?
I’m new here, and I’m looking for some advice. I am a single 29-year-old woman who has been living with the parents in north Hudson County since graduating college seven years ago. In that time, I have amassed $25,000 in savings. I work in a Jersey suburb and make $31,000 a year after taxes.
I know my life sounds pathetic, but there has been incredible pressure on me to stay at home until I can afford a non-dodgy mortgage. Not just from my parents, but from my boyfriend as well (who also lives with his parents so that he can get a townhouse in a couple of years).
I have reached the breaking point with my family, however, and if I have to rent to get away from them, so be it. And I’m sure that given how much money I make, I’m probably best off renting for life (and I simply can’t handle the costs and responsibilities of ownership).
But that’s the problem – my parents and boyfriend are convinced that ownership is the only way to go, and that renting is “throwing money away.” Maybe buying makes more sense for my boyfriend, but it doesn’t for me. And it’s not like my parents are going to help me out with mortgage – I don’t want that either, because I want true independence.
What do you suggest I do? Suffer with my parents for another seven years, or “throw money away” and receive some sanity? And how best do I tell people that renting makes more sense for me?
Gary you’re welcome, good luck in yours.
3b,
A large majority of back office relocations have already taken place. Witness Merrill Lynch, who have relocated thousands of jobs to Hopewell, NJ, located north of Trenton. Despite shifting thousands of jobs out of New York, Merrill has hired so many people (most earning six or seven figures) at its World Financial Center headquarters that enclosed offices there are being demolished so the space can be divided up into small cubicles.
Although I agree that employment and compensation in the New York financial industry is cyclical, the industry will bounce back quickly in the event of a downturn. To illustrate, the past 6 years have been characterized by an enormous terrorist attack and aggressive relocation of back office jobs. Today, job numbers in the industry are nearly back to the all-time high while compensation has reached unprecedented levels, as recently added jobs are better than the ones that were lost.
Pick up a copy of the latest Crain’s. It has lots of great stats on New York City. My favorite one is the average salary for finance sector workers: $290,000.
bru (123)-
I wouldn’t leave my parents’ house and either rent OR buy at 31K/year. You’ll wipe out your savings pronto and have nothing to show for it, either way.
You cannot live on your own in NJ @ 31K/year.
I have to agree with clot, even though I love to write em, there needs to be a basis.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think either extreme is the right approach. Like most everything else, there is always common ground to be found somewhere in the middle. I also generally believe that most folks are genuine. Nobody is out to purposely waste anyone’s time.
jb
#125 Bru,
Have you thought of grad school? Full time you could get out in 16 to 20 months, live on campus and be away from the parents, and hoepfully greatly increase your earning power.
What would anyone say the chances of a big blow up are?
Bru,
The answer is simple. You need to earn more $.
My suggestion is to find a job in Manhattan. Pay levels there are significantly higher than northern New Jersey, and pay is rising faster.
Then take advantage of the best real estate arbitrage in the world’s major cities today. Earn Manhattan $ and pay Hudson County real estate prices. Many affordable condos (
As fun as it is to watch prices drop, it is a bit of a bummer that prices are collapsing in the 600-900k range, but they are not coming in the 500k-599k range.
Anyone know why that is?
Are the glut of the houses on the market just a shade under a million?
We’re in no rush to buy, and I know timing the market is impossible … but would love to hear any theories on the lower end houses on the market.
Financially, we could grab something at 600k, but then there’s the problem of what happens when we have kids and go down to one salary … which has us thinking of moving to upstate NY a bit to get more house and more property for 400k. But i hate the damn cold, we wouldn’t know anybody up there, which would kind of suck.
My message was cut somehow. It should finish:
Many affordable condos (less than $300,000) exist in North Hudson towns having a convenient commute to midtown Manhattan.
Are you sure you want to live ina condo for less than $300k? It is probabaly in some really bad neighborhood, like Bergenline Avenue, where English is the second language.
What, exactly, is wrong with people who speak English as a second language?
jb
#135,
There are plenty available in this neighborhood.
http://homes.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?ctid=65267&ml=3&mxp=26&typ=2&sid=4e37dc078188406bacd7d8a08c07f29b&pg=1
#123
If you want your independence, then move out and rent. Contrary to what everyone seems to be telling you, you don’t have to own a home to be happy. And if you end up renting your entire life, well, that sure isn’t the worst thing that can happen to you. (And if it is, you’ll be leading a very charmed life.) That’s my two cents.
Getting a job in Manhattan is a good idea. That is where most Gold Coast residents work. When you are ready to live on your own, you can buy something near the PATH. I know this might sound awful to some, but maybe you can try Velocity in Hoboken. You can get a brand new 1 bedroom for about $300k. If you work in Manahattan, you can sell your car and save tons of money each year.
Move in with the BF and split costs. Living with the rents until 29 would have caused me to put a gun to my head (and I get along great with them). Sometimes you just need to get out on your own. $31K after taxes should allow you to get you a small studio in a nice town in NJ. I was looking for investment properties recently in Madison and the building I was looking at had rents in the $800’s for small one bedrooms. I was paying about that for my first apartment after college and earning similar to you. My budget was tight but I was out on my own at least. Do your best to keep saving, even it is only $100 a month. Stay away from Starbucks!
Startingover,
My point was more that agents were taking a lot of abuse during the height of the “lowball to flip” craze.
This was towards the end of 2003. What would have been a lowball on $83,000? Maybe $10,000 or $15,000 less? And that house would have been immediately relisted … LOTS of demand.
It was known that this was an estate situation. Small community.
The guy who bought it was smart enough to realize that in an estate situation, you get one good offer at asking, and you’re done. They probably could have gotten more if they’d been willing to leave it on the market longer and take more bids. But winter was coming, and since they had a buyer, my cousins didn’t want to be in a position where they had to go over to the house every day and check up on the furnace and pipes and shovel snow.
But the agent got hit with a lot of people who thought an estate sale was an opportunity to lowball and flip.
So I’m not surprised if agents have become cynical about lowball offers.
“What, exactly, is wrong with people who speak English as a second language?”
Nothing. The problem is when people do not speak any English, as is the case in Bergenline Avenue area. People there do not speak English. WHen I said second language, I meant percentage of English speakers, not people speaking 2 languages.
Bru,
You need to rent a place of your own. Find someone looking for a roomate. Same goes for your BF. Maybe the two of you can live together if you think you’re ready for that. I suspect you’re not, otherwise you probably would have already done so.
Longer term, you need to think about whether you can really afford to remain in the area.
From MSNBC:
On Wall St: Subprime loans go to neigbours of the Joneses
The once-arcane world of US subprime mortgages has become notorious.
Late payments and defaults by overstretched home owners have rippled across global financial markets.
…
All that can easily divert attention from the borrowers causing all the trouble. But they matter – not only as individuals but also because a careful analysis of their circumstances can help predict the fallout for financial markets.
It turns out there is no such thing as a typical subprime borrower. The standard picture of a struggling low-income home buyer with a patchy credit history in an economically troubled neighbourhood only goes so far.
That image does reflect the roots of subprime lending as a business that served out-of-pocket borrowers in troubled areas with “hard money” or heavily secured loans. But subprime lending has grown in the past decade on the back of targeting a much broader group with so-called “affordability products”.
Even the famous Beverly Hills “90210” zip code, with all its celebrity residents, has 420 subprime home loans outstanding. Here, it seems, subprime home loans were a way to keep up with the Joneses rather than just a way to put a roof over one’s head.
This underlines how subprime mortgages have helped borrowers stretch to buy homes in overheated property markets. They were particularly in demand in some of the fastest- growing areas of the US, not the most disadvantaged.
Recent research from Deutsche Bank shows that, since 2000, areas with high home price appreciation saw the biggest usage of subprime mortgages.
Bru – can you rent with roommates? I absolutely would not buy in your situation.
Bru,
You’ve got a great blog, keep writing.
jb
Startingover,
It’s amazing to me that your RE agent simply refuses to do what you ask. In my line of work, I’d be fired within 5 minutes if I acted that way toward a client.
Even if Bru wanted to buy, I do not think she woud be approved for a mortgagae so renting or continuing to live with relatives are her only options.
Bru,
I am not sure if you are ready for a career change (excuse me everyone, I know this might sound crazy, but just read on), but maybe you can consider becoming a cop with the NYPD. They are desperate for cops and 5 years from now you will be earning over $60k a year, plus benefits. I know this sounds like a crazy idea, but give it some thought.
I have a lot of respect for NYC cops, but I don’t know how you can recommend that job. What is starting pay– $40,000? Not such a great deal for putting your life on the line and dealing with every nut job in the city on a daily basis
Wow, so many responses in such a short time!
#132, 139: I used to work in Manhattan, and I am positive working in New York would NOT earn me more money, especially in my line of work. A lot of people in this field – especially those working in the city – are subsidized by their partners or parents. Plus, there’s the whole paying-taxes-to-two-states thing.
#130: Grad school is out of the question. My field values on-the-job experience far more than time in a classroom. I make more money than kids who just joined the company fresh from Ivy League grad schools.
#149: As for being a cop, I’m simply not tough enough, and I’m 100 percent sure that were I given a gun, I’d be shaking so much I’d accidentally kill someone. I can’t even hold a camera still!
#135: Actually, I live near Bergenline Avenue. It’s not so bad, but I wouldn’t pay money to live here, and I wouldn’t live here by myself. I need to live in a safe area, especially because I work odd hours and often get home around midnight.
#140: My boyfriend right now lives in Middlesex and works in Monmouth, and will probably look to buy in that part of the state. I live in Hudson and work in Passaic. I really don’t want to be any farther from my job than I already am. Plus, my parents are very conservative and would likely disown me if I “lived in sin” (I roll my eyes at that phrase).
And I don’t do Starbucks, although if I move out, I probably wouldn’t rule out working there a few hours a day.
#143, 145: I’ve thought about roommates, but really need to be by myself.
#146: Thank you!
skeptic,
Ignore the staring pay. The top pay is $60k, which is double what she is earning now. How is she going to survive in northern NJ on $31k a year? Do you have any better ideas, besides moving to Pennsylvania?
FYI: The starting pay is not $40k. It’s lower. A LOT LOWER. Trust me, you do not want to know what it is.
3b Says: “JP Morgan Consolidating in Ohio (Banc One)”
I missed this one, do you know where in Ohio? I am currently renting in Brooklyn/working on Wall Street and are looking for alternatives to NYC but want to stay in the financial industry. I been looking into Charlotte, NC but my wife don’t like the South.
I would have no troble being a cop. I would be writing out so many tickets everyday, I would be the most hated person in the area. I would go through 5 ticket books a day!
Go over the speed limit by 1 mph: TICKET
Park 1 inch too close tot the fire hydrant: TICKET
125 Bru. Has living at home with the folks kept you soft and comfortable, such that you do not attempt to increase your earnings?
You said $31k “after taxes.” So, maybe you’re making 42k. Living at home with your parents for seven years, unless they’ve been charging you an arm and a leg for rent and utilities, you should have been able to save much more than $25k. That means you’ve spent approximately 27k per year…on what?
If you are living rent free, couldn’t you have saved half of your earnings at least…maybe $100k?
My point is not to chastise your savings behavior, but to point out a minor difficulty in your habits, that could have direct bearing on your success with either renting or owning.
Seems like lots of new faces (or just first time posts) recently.
jb
Bru–
You seem to be setting yourself up to maintain the status quo.
You say you don’t want to live with your parents, but you also don’t want to live with roommates or your boyfriend, and you don’t want to live in a so-so neighborhood.
I guess you’re more comfortable in your current situation than you’d like to admit. Nothing wrong with that– people in Europe live with their parents into their 30s routinely.
I guess what I would be wondering if I were you is where is this all heading. Sounds like you’re trying to figure this out, but maybe not willing to admit to yourself that some compromises will be necessary at some point.
Bru,
If you and your boyfriend get married, maybe then you can afford to rent something together since you will recieve greater tax advantages since you are a married couple.
Here’s a question. What do you think the max lowball percentage is? I’ve seen more than a couple houses in the last month or so where even a 20% haircut off the ask wouldn’t make me jump on it.
It seems that a lot of the sellers still think it is 2005. They’re figuring their home value with another year or so of boom pricing on top of the ’05 top.
Any thoughts?
#153 Cleveland
#150 Starting pay is 24K
#137
This seems like a good idea; a condo in the mid $200s is doable. You could get a 2br and charge rent.
If you don’t mind the town…
very interesting story about Florida and pending forclosures. look at some of the lending practices that are going on down there.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/05/real_estate/futureshock_Florida_housing_will_fall/index.htm?postversion=2007070612
Speaking of jobs, I got an email today. They want to hire one person who will have the responsibility of three. They listed the requirements in detail and include offering 7×24 support to multiple sites, handling security, running jobs, as well as software enhancements. They want to pay 75K and the “perk” is 4 weeks vacation. The influx of workers from overseas who are put up in houses have given these companies ideas that you don’t have to pay much. In the end you get what you pay for.
Even if you could get 100K in NYC you will never get back all the taxes you pay in on your NJ tax and in the end it’s not worth it.
I’ve worked in IT for 20 years and if there are jobs out there for $200K I’d like to know about them. I’m lucky if I get emails offering half that.
Type the following into an MS Word document, change the font to size 42, print it out and post it on your fridge:
“ASKING PRICES ARE MEANINGLESS”
Sellers asking for 2005 prices where I am looking are actually selling their homes. Sellers asking for 2005 prices plus 5%, 10% or more are paying taxes on their 10-months empty vacant trophies. Sellers asking less than 2005 prices can call the moving van the same day they list their home for sale.
Asking price means nothing. Recent sales mean a lot.
#133 They will be. Real estate is like a ladder, one rung at a time.
>>I have a friend who is looking now (also IT) and he has gotten great response – in his case, mostly Manhattan, salaries in 80k-105k range. Money isn’t that good for Manhattan but the jobs are there.
plenty at the entry level but 200k+ jobs are few and far between unless you’re well connectged.
#132 The average rais on Wall St reet last year, away form sales and trading was 3.1%. Rising fast? No, rising at the so called inflation rate.
#131 100%
“#137
This seems like a good idea; a condo in the mid $200s is doable. You could get a 2br and charge rent.
If you don’t mind the town…”
What are you implying? You sound really ignorant. #137 does not show the REAL CLiffside Park condo market. If you want to see the real market, check out the link below. Be prepared to go into sticker shock, you ignorant fool:
http://homes.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?ctid=65267&ml=3&mnp=40&mxp=54&typ=2
Bru,
Nothing wrong with getting the parents riled up I always say. My parents were mad at me when I moved in with my GF before we were engaged and that was that. Basically told them that we were planning on getting married soon and that paying two rents in NYC was a complete waste of money and not an option. They didn’t like it but soon realized that they they really only had one option and that was to suck it up. When you live with your parents you allow them to still consider you “their little girl” even though you are trying to be independent. The only way to break that is to move out on your own. If you moved in with your BF I promise you they would get over it. They really have no other choice in life. Just wait till you give them grandkids, the power goes right back to you. They might be pissed off for a bit if you did it but in the end they would know that you are your own person. Good luck.
#127 Trust me I am initmately aware of salaries on Wall Street, and these jobs you are talking about are mythcal. That Crains number is a joke.
Much of the growth was fueled by the low interest rate environment, which will nto lat forever, the Fixed Income business, (CMO’S CDO’s) Hedge funds and all the rest. That environment is changing. Wall St’s big profits too have been generated from over seas.
Wall St bouncing back, do not be too sure, employment is still not at its peak level from 2000, 7+ years later.
There are a total of around 200k Wall St jobs in NYC, thats it.
Its a myth and fallacy to think that this Wall St employment/salaries is what drove the real estate market,and will keep it strong.
Looks like another generation of people, and or those who have forgotten or do not know, are going to get a reeducation.
We have exhausted this topic before on this site, but I guess some still believe the myths.
#124 Robbie So all should aspire to live in Alpine. Like I said Wyckoff is a real town, Alpine an enclave.
If you cannot understand that, then you will never will.
#170
I’m sorry, but what are you talking about?
This listing, sub $250k 2br condo, isn’t in Cliffside Park?
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1067937334
The slew of
Clifside Park:
If you want to see the real market…
$200k – $1M seems to be the reality.
Not one or the other.
I’ve been to both Alpine and Wyckoff and they both look like real towns to me. Your just making excuses because you can’t afford Alpine.
“$200k – $1M seems to be the reality.
Not one or the other.”
If you look at the tax records, they tell a very different story. I have a recent sale right in front of me for over $1.8 million.
Should have been $1M+…
But still.
$200k – $1M+ seems to be the reality.
It’s not ALL “high-end”.
174
Completely cut off my post.
#137 has a ton of sub $300k condos listed for Cliffside Park. Seems like a good place for a first time buyer, if they can deal with the town.
I’d rather live in a tent in Wyckoff than a mansion in Alpine. Alpine has zero character or community feel.
Um, Robert Troll, #103 – I know that building well, and there is not a bigger ripoff in Hoboken. They should change that title to “REALLY STUPID CLUELESS New Yorkers Buying in Crappy Hoboken Building Because They Did Not Do Their Research.”
#123 Nobody said the world will come to an end, but there will be a blow up, that is guranteed.
As far as the economy being resillient, well we have different beliefs as to what is resillient and or strong.
An economy built on debt is not strong, period.
As far as Bergen real esate being strong, if you say so. I suggest you talk to some realtors.
And as far as our state economy I refer you yet again to latest report form the Rutgers economists.
And that is what matters for BC, considering the over whelming majortiy of people who live in BC, do not, repeat do not work in NYC.
“This listing, sub $250k 2br condo, isn’t in Cliffside Park?”
Great job cherry picking the cheapest condos for sale. If I posted a list of $450k apartments for sale in Manhattan, what does that mean? Does that mean prices are under $500k for the average apartment?
147 skep-tic
Yes. My line of work, too. That is why she will not hear more from me.
To repeat my quandry: If I jettison the uncooperative realtor, how do I have someone else do the offer on a property that she showed me?
Bergen has the most NYC commuters than any other NJ county. 24% of NYC-NJ commuters live in Bergen.
#176 You got me Robert I cannot afford Alpine, what will I do. You are incredibly silly.
#184
If you end up getting that listing, be prepared for a lawsuit. That agent will want their commission as sure as the sun comes up every day. Could get messy.
#185 The over whelming majority of people who liver in BERGEN COUNTY, do not work in NYC. What part of that do you not understand?
#183
You are arguing with yourself(no surprise).
The poster was looking to get out of her parents’ house. A cheap condo with possible rental income seems a valid option.
Yet somehow this conflicts with your worldview. Shocking.
Great job cherry picking the cheapest condos for sale. If I posted a list of $450k apartments for sale in Manhattan, what does that mean? Does that mean prices are under $500k for the average apartment?
Is that not the same as you were doing with your post of $1M+? Were you not “cherry picking” the most expensive condos for sale?
And the Manhattan to Cliffside Park comparison doesn’t work. If you picked an area of Manhattan… maybe.
“A cheap condo with possible rental income seems a valid option.”
Really? You are not allowed to rent out a bedroom. You can be sued for this.
#194
Why quash her dreams like that?
She could start there, then someday move to a better locale.
Not to mention being fined by the boro up to $500 per day for each day the violation occurs.
Roommate then.
If it’s good enough for half of Hoboken, surely it’s good enough for this town.
I think she is better off buying this house and renting out a room. No condo association to deal with:
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2718058&id=999999
A snippet off today’s Daily Reckoning…sorry for the long copy-paste.
“Each link in the food chain has its own delusions. Bear Stearns has merely
brought them to light. When its Enhanced Leverage hedge fund lost 23% of
its value from January to April of this year, creditors started eyeing the
furniture, wondering what they could haul off and what they could get for
it. Then, when they saw what houses were going for when they put them on
the auction block, they panicked. Creditors, notably Merrill Lynch, wanted
their money in the worst possible way, but it simply wasn’t there. The
Financial Times reported this week that when vulture funds began to bid on
the Bear’s holdings the highest bid was only five cents per dollar of face
value. Meanwhile, investors in the funds were offering their positions at
11 cents on the dollar – with no takers.
“That is the big ugly secret of this market,” said a hedge fund manager
quoted in the FT, the market clearing price is far below the price people
are willing to accept.
Whether you are a desperate homeowner…or a desperate hedge fund…when
you are in a jam, the price of your assets usually goes down fast. At
least with a house, potential buyers can drive by before the auction and
see what they are getting. Every house has some value; buyers can even
imagine living in them. The value of the High-Grade Structured Credit
Strategies Enhanced Leverage portfolio, on the other hand, may be zero.
You can list the ingredients in these wieners on the side of the package
or report them on a 10-Q form, but what they were worth is anyone’s guess.
And Bear Stearns didn’t want to guess at all. In an open auction, Wall
Street would discover what they were really worth. But that is exactly
what Wall Street doesn’t want to know. At least, not now. Bear Stearns is
not the only outfit with billions invested in these hot dogs. None of the
big investment houses want to discover that their assets and their
collateral are worth a lot less than they thought. So there will be no
auction. The mess will be cleaned up in private. Mr. Market will have to
hold his tongue.
Complex derivatives have been one of the biggest hits of 21st century
finance. The math geniuses who create them probably won’t get Oscars or
their names on any public monuments, but they deserve some recognition.
They didn’t merely package gristly lumps of dodgy loans. Their great
breakthrough was to separate the mortgage income stream from the risk of
loss. A “credit default swap” – CDS – is, in effect, an insurance plan.
Holders of CDO’s can off-load their risk to a third party, paying a
premium, just as though it were an insurance policy. So, with the risks
supposedly controlled, the way was cleared to sell some of the foulest
securities as if they were Treasury debt. Spreads narrowed, because the
danger had been swapped out of the risky credits – at least, in theory.
Then, the quants at Goldman, Bear, and elsewhere, went a step further.
They took the stream of insurance income itself – the swap payments – and
created yet another derivative – a “synthetic CDO.” Those are sold to
hedge funds too. And now we have a whole alphabet of derivative
sausages…all cross-insured, counter-partied, tranched and
retranched…spliced and diced…and all desperately counting on some
Cajun yahoo down on the bayou to pay more for his house than it is really
worth.
What are all these mortgage-backed securities really worth? We don’t know.
We doubt anyone knows. The whiz kids on Wall Street have their formulae.
But we want to hear what Mr. Market says when he finally gets to speak.”
I have to say – being a newbie “sideliner” on this blog I’ve been able to compile a ton of helpful info, even persuaded the wife to chill with the “we have to buy soon” idea. However, I’m very curious as to the type of occupations you all have. Are you all finance gurus? Real estate trolls? Or just housing hobbyist’s?
From Newsday:
NJ poised to enact comprehensive anti-global warming law
Al Gore, the Former Vice President turned environmental activist, will be on hand Friday when Gov. Jon S. Corzine signs legislation requiring the Garden State to achieve ambitious reductions in emissions of global-warming gases.
New Jersey will become the second state, behind only California, to pass a comprehensive greenhouse gas-reduction law.
“This is the strictest global warming law in the country for two reasons,” said David Pringle, campaign director of the New Jersey Environmental Federation. “Because of the mandatory emissions reductions and because of a provision that says out-of-state power producers can’t move power through New Jersey without meeting New Jersey standards.”
The signing of New Jersey’s “Global Warming Response Act” was to take place at The Meadowlands sports complex Friday afternoon, the day before a series of concerts around the world drawing attention to global warming, including one at The Meadowlands in New Jersey that Gore planned to attend.
The legislation requires the state to reduce global warming gases to 1990 levels by 2020, and to ensure that greenhouse gas emissions do not exceed 80 percent of 2006 levels by 2050.
…
Critics of the New Jersey law argued that it would hurt the state’s energy industry and that the act contained no specific proposals to lower emissions. The measure nonetheless enjoyed widespread bipartisan support in the Legislature, passing easily before lawmakers recessed for the summer and advancing to the governor’s desk.
all of the above!
Thinking of all those commuters from Bergen.. Bergen does not seem like the best choice if the job is in manhattan.
If you had to commute to the city what would you choose – Bergen or towns along the train line in Essex/Union/Morris?
SS, I am financially clueless, so reading this site has helped me focus and look into certain things that I normally wouldn’t have. Otherwise, I am a dog-obsessed attorney and housing hobbyist!
103#:
I know those apartments in hoboken… they’re ok… a couple of my friends rented a 2br for $1600 a couple of years ago… too bad this couple is going to take bath when they try to re-sell… it’s nowhere near the waterfront and is surrounded by low-income projects… and a huge supply of condos in that area is just starting to come on the market… location, location, location…
i think this couple’s initial instinct of keeping their check-book at home was correct… they made an impulse buy without truly researching the town… bummer…
Also… another point about that article… it was a complete fluff piece… why didn’t the reporter ask why the apartment building only converted some apartments to condos and not all?
3b #172,
Why is the Crain’s number, which was provided by the New York State Department of Labor, a “joke”?
The $290,000 average salary for the 168,000 jobs in the “financial investment and related activities” category seems about right to me. In addition, every other categories within the finance and insurance industry feature $100,000+ average salaries. This also makes sense.
Surging compensation across the New York financial industry is real. That is why New York City’s personal income tax collections rose from $4.5 billion in 2003 to $7.6 billion last year. Part of this increase can be explained by a modest bump in the tax rate for city residents earning more than $150,000. However, the billions of additional tax receipts is driven primarily by rising incomes.
Let’s face it. During the past several years, hundreds of thousands of local households have enjoyed very large rises in their incomes and net worths. People who rely on mainstream media articles to form their opinions seem to be convinced that real estate prices rose almost entirely because of the situation in the debt markets. In reality, the economic situation in the New York financial industry has been a more important driver.
The reason why home prices in Hoboken have doubled since 2002 is because Hoboken homebuyers can afford to pay the higher prices. That is why there are very few subprime loans in Hoboken.
“Also… another point about that article… it was a complete fluff piece… why didn’t the reporter ask why the apartment building only converted some apartments to condos and not all?”
Because they are still rentals, and in NJ you can’t kick the renters out until 3 years after the notice. The article also failed to mention that there are plenty of availabilities and that none of the renters bought – as heard from some realtors when we (for a brief moment of insanity considered buying a condo in Hoboken), the building has a mold issue, and the roof will need major repair soon, requiring owners to pay a huge assessment. Plus, community laundry stinks. Yes, better than going to a laundromat, but come on – a luxury apt. should have at least it’s own W/D.
The reason why home prices in Hoboken have doubled since 2002 is because Hoboken homebuyers can afford to pay the higher prices. That is why there are very few subprime loans in Hoboken.
How do you explain the similar price movements seen in areas that do not have a high percentage of NYC-employed residents? Or across areas that did have a higher percentage of subprime loans?
jb
“That is why there are very few subprime loans in Hoboken.”
Is that true? When I was looking there, our agent led us to believe otherwise – at least, there was a lot of funky financings – I/Os, etc.
Alt-A isn’t subprime.
jb
Got it, thanks.
High DTI, Low/No-Doc, or other risk-layered mortgages to high-FICO borrowers (borrowers who would normally have qualified for a prime mortgage had it not been for the exceptions) would likely be in the Alt-A segment.
jb
From Reuters:
Subprime risks come home to roost for hedge funds
Bad bets revealed by some hedge funds in recent weeks may mean other funds will be forced to accept the market’s deteriorating views on subprime mortgages and report their own losses soon.
Some managers have resisted accepting market views on their assets, claiming declines represent short-term market volatility and not underlying financial value in their subprime bonds, analysts said. Since the bonds trade infrequently, managers’ have turned to pricing models that may ignore market sentiment, buoying prices.
But with delinquencies rising on mortgages granted to less creditworthy home buyers, and the U.S. housing market slump seen extending into 2008, dealers are increasingly accepting the reality of market values.
Declines in indices tracking the values of subprime mortgage backed bonds in June mean managers valuing portfolios on a monthly basis have to reveal losses, analysts said.
“The interesting thing is the varying stages of denial that the street finds itself in,” said a university endowment manager who asked that he not be named. Some, he said, are “very willing to mark prices down and take the lumps.”
Can someone please tell me whether the price on this listing was increased today?
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2722470&id=999999
JB #205,
There is nothing to explain because an objective observation of the facts reveals that, during the boom, home prices in the suburbs didn’t rise at a similar pace to home prices in urban areas closest to Manhattan.
Compared to suburban New Jersey homebuyers, a higher proportion of homebuyers in towns directly across the Hudson are employed in Manhattan-based finance jobs. These buyers have benefited from several years of soaring pay and are in the position to afford the rapidly rising prices in Hoboken and adjacent communities. On the other hand, the typical buyer in a northern New Jersey suburb is a middle manager earning an income that is very high by national standards but is rising in line with inflation. This explains why prices in nicer suburban towns rose at only a single digit pace during the boom years.
In New Jersey, the subprime mortgage problems are severe in two areas: low income rural areas in South Jersey, such as Cumberland and Salem counties, and inner cities in North Jersey. I agree that the situation in the debt markets was a key contributor to the rapid home price increases in these places.
Here is the data. The source is the Department of the Treasury which tracks every residential real estate transaction in New Jersey.
Change in residential real estate prices in North Jersey suburban counties’ nicest towns, 2000-2005
Far Hills, Somerset 24.5%
Harding, Morris 30.6%
Alpine, Bergen 36.3%
Summit, Union 40.4%
Millburn, Essex 46.5%
Cranbury, Middlesex 53.4%
Change in residential real estate prices in Hudson County towns across from midtown and downtown Manhattan, 2000-2005
Jersey City, 128.5%
Hoboken, 91.1%
Weehawken, 105.5%
2722470 ACT 330 ADOLPHUS AVE $2,363,990 6/4/2007 6/4/2007 29309 480 1
PCH 330 ADOLPHUS AVE $2,638,538 7/5/2007 7/5/2007 29309 480 32
Thanks JB.
So then the price was increased. Here is my question: HUH? I thought we are in a down market and there was gloom and doom everywhere?
I can’t beleive that list. Who would want to live in Jersey City over Alpine?
The hundreds of thousands of local households earning $150,000 to $400,000 per year.
I doubt there are too any people, if anyone, in JC earning $400k a year. Hoboken and Weehawken? Yes. But JC is the cheapest of the 3.
Re: #155, 157, 158 and 171…
My financial situation has had me make choices about my future. I have concluded that I don’t want to have kids because, obviously, if I can’t afford to live on my own, how can I support others? I want to say my boyfriend makes at least twice as much as I do, but that still isn’t enough. And what would happen if we marry, have kids, and divorce?
Yes, I’m really cynical about things, but I think it’s a given for someone born, raised and still living in New Jersey. ;)
I always envisioned my life as such: after college, I’d move to Manhattan, where I’d live for the rest of my life. Maybe I’d marry, maybe I’d have kids, but I’d have a fabulous life that I felt I deserved. So many other people my age are making it work – and I never thought I’d be stuck in New Jersey. True, I could be better off in some other part of the country, but unless I win the lottery and can get a place in Manhattan, I don’t want to live anywhere else – I love being close to New York, and I’ve come to love my weird, wonderful home state.
As for my savings, I know I should have put a lot more money away, but I noticed that the frivolities I have spent a fair bit on was my way to make myself feel “normal,” given my undesirable living situation. I guess I’m a bit like Japan’s “parasite girls,” but I don’t share their taste for luxury goods.
Also, I was unemployed for two years (although I did some freelance work during that time). Moreover, I’d be about $17,000 richer if I didn’t need to buy a car (a pre-owned Volvo … I needed a safe car).
It seems there’s no place for anyone in this area who isn’t an IB, doctor or lawyer (or is funded by parents in those fields), or who isn’t below the poverty line. I can either avoid debt or live on my own – but I fear there’s no way to do both.
Donald
I don’t think most posters think its gloom and doom everywhere: as JB has said several times, if something is priced appropriately, it moves quickly; otherwise it sits. Raising the price 300K certainly is an intersting strategy, though if it didn’t move at 2.3 I dont know how much more likely it is to move at 2.6, but then again, I dont know much about the Cliffside condo movement.
Pooh,
There are multiple condos for $2.6 million. It is in a new devleopment so, even if a condo is sold for $2.6 million, it will remain in the MLS because there are dozens of them for sale.
After the price increase, the condo comes out to $800 a square foot. That is more expensive than most of Hoboken.
I just got a letter from a realtor in the mail today. Basically it says that “We are workig with a prospective buyer in your area who might be interested in putting an offer in on your house. Please call us if you are interested.” I think this letter is complete garbage and it is just a realtor fishing for listings.
Thoughts?
Richard 167,
Did I read you right, are you calling 85k-105k IT jobs “entry level”?
pret: as always, your arguments sound plausible, but they are ultimately specious…..oh bless you…..if you are going to spit out some stats, why don’t you think a little bit?
I’m finding that this site is degenerating into a crapbox.
“I’m finding that this site is degenerating into a crapbox.”
So then go back to kannekt and watch the communist government of China delete all of your posts.
Chicagofinance,
Can you elaborate?
pretorius,
I think chicagofinance does not beleive the appreciation statistics you posted.
Pretorius #37 said:
“New Jersey-based companies that expanded rapidly between the 1950s and 1990s (such as Merck and AT&T) aren’t world leaders anymore and are shrinking their New Jersey footprints, in part because the creative class they rely on to invent new products doesn’t want to live in New Jersey today.”
The only reason they are shrinking their footprints is to cut costs and offshore jobs. My cousin was a research department head for a pharmaceutical company and was forced out at age 60. He eventually found a comparable job in Puerto Rico, and his wife sees him occasionally.
When I started working in NNJ 20+ years ago, there were great technology/engineering job opportunities. During my first apartment search, the manager at one complex said smugly, “You’re probably another engineer”.
I’ll bet that would not happen today!
In fact when I go to social events in Manhattan, and ask people what they do, it is usually something connected to finance, education, or the service economy; never anything like what I do.
NJ is slowly being bled dry of these types of jobs, and it’s not because people won’t live here. If that were true, they wouldn’t have to lay off people…
Manhattan is great if your job is connected to finance. Otherwise, it means a career change with an immediate 30% pay cut and long commutes.
So there are two real estate markets. The one for Manhattan commuters (still healthy), and the one for local commuters (rapidly deteriorating).
by Manhattan commuters – I mean on train/bus line within 1 hour rush hour commute to Manhattan.
“Manhattan is great if your job is connected to finance.”
Why does everyone keep talking like finance is the only decent job out there? I am sure that doctors and lawyers can easily afford Manhattan.
Many IT jobs are being sent to India.
yes – my brother-in-law is a lawyer.
He does mergers and acquisitions – finance related.
My point is that finance is the dominant industry.
It drives most everything else.
yes – I know I work with the people in India.
The time time zone differential is a huge pain.
CF, I don’t know if this will help you, but do you think quality of the comments or lack of analysis has anything to do with the stage of the cycle? Vacations? Mental exhaustion regarding the topic?
I cruised over to Wikipedia last night to read over the US housing bubble topic and couldn’t get through half of it. My forehead banged on the space bar as my head bobs accelerated.
I was surprised at some Craigslist postings for short sales. Hmmm….
Someone mentioned that if a house is priced well, it moves quickly. I don’t get that. There are dozens (hundreds?) of new listings every month in each county in NJ.
Regardless of what is priced accurately, the buyer has the upper hand. Unless you have a serious, serious hard-on for one house, I’m not sure why you couldn’t play one against another (heck, 3 or 4) until you found a suitable price.
skep (157)-
This chick is a lost cause. Another Gen Y jar of mayonnaise.
For instance …
really like this house in Ridgewood:
2718147
Doesn’t appear to be on a main road. Asking price of $544,000 is a bit steep … esp since the house was sold for 390k in 2003. (If the value of the house rose by an average of $38,000 a year, you can be damn sure it can go down by $38,000 a year.)
I wouldn’t even come with an offer until it drifted into the $450 range. How many times has the price already been dropped? How many more homes in this price range will come on the market in the coming months?
I agree with you Clotpoll. Someone who lives with their parents for 7 years should have more than $25k saved up. Probably blew all her money on designer clothes.
“I wouldn’t even come with an offer until it drifted into the $450 range.”
But what if the sellers pull a “Cliffside Park” and raise the price?
SS (197)-
I am a contract killer.
#197
I am a covert CIA operative. I work on the side for real estate devleopers and I get paid to keep tabs on you guys.
dream (196)-
More sausage/hot dog/ground gristle metaphors!
I think Grim deserves some sort of Wiki or attribution for being the first to describe the subprime bundling process as akin to charcuterie.
Perhaps a Golden Kielbasa?
Let me clarify…
Yes, I do wish I had saved a lot more money. But as I said, I spent money (mostly on traveling, and yes, on clothes, if you could even consider the Gap “designer clothes”) because I was miserable. Being unemployed for two years and having to buy a car that’s frequently in the shop also hurt me.
I felt – and still feel – like a failure because I didn’t get to live in that fabulous Manhattan apartment that every young college graduate is told by magazines she’s entitled to. So pardon me for making dumb decisions because I’m disappointed with the way my life has gone and feel I have no reason to look to the future.
Why does everyone keep talking like finance is the only decent job out there? I am sure that doctors and lawyers can easily afford Manhattan.
They can easily afford Manhattan if they are single and childless. Preschool costs 25K+ a year in Manhattan. And that’s IF they get a spot for Junior.
“But what if the sellers pull a “Cliffside Park” and raise the price?”
That’s easy … go to the next street over and look at the homes for sale. Have you not seen the inventory #’s? They are surging.
I love how the price raise of ONE house – in the $2 million range, which only a handful of people can afford – trumps all the other data that has been presented.
I agree with you Clotpoll. Someone who lives with their parents for 7 years should have more than $25k saved up. Probably blew all her money on designer clothes.
Several years ago I dated a couple of young NJ women who lived with mom and dad because they “can’t afford an apartment.” One leased a BMW and the other was looking to trade in her “old” Lexus for a Jaguar.
I soon learned that NJ is teeming with these types.
No joke.
Remittance data for Mexico is out for May, and it is an ugly sight. This hasn’t just slowed, it is actually down 5.5% year over year at $2.170 billion versus $2.295 billion.
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=885
Bru – I can’t believe anyone would make such sacrifices just to live in New Jersey.
Yen sales by Japanese mom and pop investors this week exceeded professional traders’ bets against the currency on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=akiBh7HQ4vm8&refer=japan
#225 Agreed. Its been hijacked, and all we get is a constant rehash of all is well, prices wont fall, everybody in Bergen, North Jersey makes 200k, everybody is employed on Wall St, and so on, and so on, and so on.
This was a site dedicated to those who belived that there was a real estate bubble.
While of course there is always room for a contrarian view, thats not what we get with the exception of Clot when at times we have had some zealots predicting 50 to 60% declines in prices and more. He restores a sense of balance to the conversation.
Now its just crap and more crap, from people who are not in the industry (Wall St), who dont remember the last housing bubble and decline,and if they do, they reply its different this time, yet offer no real reasons as to why that is.
Hopefully the decline in this forum can be arrested.
I will do my part by simply ignoring the nonsense posts;and I mean it this time, no matter how tempted I am to reply.
#212 Pret Single digit rises in the surburbs? Price in my town almost doubled in 5 years.
High paying finance jobs for all, let me tell my late 20″s trainees that are living with room mates to afford the rent.
Plus all the friends and family with kids etc, many employed on the street all doubled and tripled up, and tired of the dorm type life.
Thats the real world pret, from someone who sees it every day.
#203 You are mistaken pret, and those numbers are reflective of only a very, very samll minority on the top with the mega millions incomes.
Just like the Goldman mega bonus’s of last year tramplye the average number of 10 to 25K before taxes.
We can go back and forth all you want, but if nothing elseyour belief in the finance sector as the be all or end all, shows that we are just a one trick pony.
Bru,
Throw out your $ex and the City DVDs. Life is not like the magazines or TV. that’s why we red and watch them, to escape our realities.
3b!!!! You promised! Just ignore these people!
3b & cf,
Agree. I appreciate posts that are backed by evidence. Announcements of 4 friends buying homes with bonus, or one off example of a single property sold for more than purchase price ,or even better posting price appreciation across “richest towns” in NJ without a source add little value.
Njrebear,
What is your comment on post #212?
pretorius,
from 212 – “The source is the Department of the Treasury which tracks every residential real estate transaction in New Jersey.
”
Can you please post a link?
There’s a plenty of subprime loans in Hoboken and one large establishment is trying to unload good number of them now. With inventories around 500 and rates at 7% you will see defaults sooner than later.
I agree with Chifi. The threads from the last few days have been hijacked and is now a sink for Donald Duck/Troll’s verbal diarrhoea, ever since his return from where ever.
Most of the folks here always have something constructive to share, and back it up with facts. It’s fine to have people with an alternate point of view to lend balance to a discussion, but not an alternate point of view just for the sake of it.
Njrebear,
Eat your heart out.
http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers
“Moreover, I’d be about $17,000 richer if I didn’t need to buy a car (a pre-owned Volvo … I needed a safe car).”
Bru, but there are tons of cars out there that you could have paid much less for, that would be very reliable, and have had the safety of a Volvo.
Don’t let the folks working on Madison Ave get into your head; all they do is make people consume and eventually become slaves to their debt.
“I love how the price raise of ONE house – in the $2 million range, which only a handful of people can afford – trumps all the other data that has been presented.”
Your right. I was just joking. Just some weekend humor.
I call troll on Bru.
Excellent news: I am getting an offer tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!
“I will do my part by simply ignoring the nonsense posts;and I mean it this time, no matter how tempted I am to reply.”
Good luck. I give you 2 days. Everybody here always breaks their pledges not to respond to “trolls.”
“Moreover, I’d be about $17,000 richer if I didn’t need to buy a car (a pre-owned Volvo … I needed a safe car).”
$17k would barely make a difference on a $300k condo.
Clotpoll Says:
July 6th, 2007 at 7:04 pm
I think Grim deserves some sort of Wiki or attribution for being the first to describe the subprime bundling process as akin to charcuterie. Perhaps a Golden Kielbasa?
clot: attribution error :(
How come I am always the one who gets accused of making claims without any supporting facts? Frank, do you have any facts to support this claim????
“Frank Says:
July 6th, 2007 at 9:34 pm
There’s a plenty of subprime loans in Hoboken and one large establishment is trying to unload good number of them now. With inventories around 500 and rates at 7% you will see defaults sooner than later.”
pretorius Says:
July 6th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Chicagofinance,Can you elaborate?
pret: why don’t you quote other stats? a good example…how many sub-zero fridges were in Summit in 2000 versus 2005?……how many in Hoboken?
Now put your thinking cap on!
Sorry, Clotpoll, I just came here to look for advice as to whether I should keep living with the parents until I can buy, or rent right now. I was trying to find out if there is any hope for someone with my salary to ever own property in North Jersey.
I admit that I haven’t been immaculate with my money; the fact is that financially, I’m better off than many people my age who just HAD to live in the Big City after graduating college.
That I don’t have $100,000 in the bank doesn’t make me a troll – just young and dumb.
Bru,
You should have went to the Velocity auction in Hoboken the other week. You could have gotten a good deal.
Surprisingly, Japanese cars are rated better for safety than Volvo today.
261]
Thanks, i try to avoid junk food.
Here is what i found
Real estate prices in North Jersey suburban counties’ “nicest towns”, 2000-2005
East Brunswick (Middlesex) – 100%
Edison ( Middlesex ) – 102%
Chatham Twp (Morris) – 94%
East Orange (Essex) – 108%
Montgomery ( Somerset) – 74%
Ewing (Mercer ) – 78%
Marlboro ( Monmouth ) – 78%
Medford( Burlington ) – 91%
And you were saying…..
Thanks for the link.
Bru – I understand where you’re coming from. I pissed a lot of money away in my 20s… much more than you… while my friends got married and bought houses for $150K. I traveled and partied and spent money and had a helluva lot more fun than they did. It’s hard catching up now that I’m married with a child and want a house, but I’ll get there eventually.
261]
Is NJ.com a “Department of the Treasury” website?
from 212 – “The source is the Department of the Treasury which tracks every residential real estate transaction in New Jersey.”
njrebear,
the funny thing about pretorious is that his #s are wrong. First of all, if one just lifts the #s off the nj.com website which specifies 2000-2006 not 2000-2005 here is what you get:
pretorious’ 2000-2005 % vs. actual 2000-2006 %
Far Hills, Somerset 24.5% vs. 203%
Harding, Morris 30.6% vs. 89%
Alpine, Bergen 36.3% vs. 136.8
Summit, Union 40.4% vs. 72%
Millburn, Essex 46.5% vs. 88%
Cranbury, Middlesex 53.4% vs. 29%
and if you break it down just for 2000-2005 here is what you get:
pretorious’ % increase vs. actual % increases
Far Hills, Somerset 24.5% vs. 63%
Harding, Morris 30.6% vs. 25%
keep in mind median in harding is now north of 1m
Alpine, Bergen 36.3% vs. 72%
Summit, Union 40.4% vs. 55%
Millburn, Essex 46.5% vs. 89%
Cranbury, Middlesex 53.4% vs. 67%
Now cranbury is actually interesting b/c their median home prices have gone to below 2003 levels
2000: 42 $410
2001: 42 $451 10.0%
2002: 46 $491 8.9%
2003: 58 $547 11.2%
2004: 48 $539 -1.4%
2005: 52 $685 27.1%
2006: 48 $530 -22.6%
2007: 7 $425 -19.8%
good nite!
afe]
Doctor Pretorious shows his evil side.
>>> Alert: Bill Moyers youtube videos on the housing market “meltdown”
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/07/wonk-alert-bill-moyers-youtube-videos.html
Was New in Town, but moved to the obvious place.
Bru
I was wondering when you plan to begin to grow up but then realized that the very fact you are posting here instead of the handbag blog is some evidence of the possibility that you have started.
I did not really start making adult decisions until I reached 35, I am embarrassed to admit. Conesquently, I have had to be very disciplined.
You see that your previous decisions have been mistakes. Too bad, forget them. You can’t change the past. You are where you are.
You want and need more income. Get it. Not qualified to earn more? Go to school or get a second or third job.
There are lots of people in worse shape than you. You have time. Start now. Get rid of the car. Share an apartment on a bus line. It is important to move away from home to establish independence. This is not Europe.
JB #64 – Buyers are liars…
Question: What would you call a realtor who refuses to bring forward an offer below asking, citing that they have already sold 90% of the units at asking or above. And then when you check the respective tax records you find that more than half of the units sold have been sold for $1.00 (all to the same LLC, which just happens to have the same name as the development company) and the half that was sold to “real people” shows a tax recorded sales price of 15% – 30% below the original asking?
Just curious,
edjs
Clotpoll # 80
Quote: [However, I do occasionally refuse to write up stupid lowballs that have no basis in reality] -end quote.
I am curious, what is reality for a realtor?
1. We have been looking to buy a condo for the past 12-18 months. Our price range – 4-600,000k
2. Our offers have been anywhere from 15% to 20% below asking. Meaning that if a condo was 750k our offer would typically be 600k.
3. Today, some of the units we bid on are still unsold, however some of the units have recently been sold for anywhere between 10% – 30% below original asking.
4. Still, the listing price for the units that remain unsold, are the same as 12-months ago.
For a realtor, what would be a reality based price for the units that are still unsold?
Just curious,
edjs
Regarding Finance industry salary increases:
It would seem that the effects of the increase in money supply would first be seen in the finance industry, since they create much of it and manage where it is distributed.
Would increasing salaries in financial services be a sign of future salary inflation across all jobs?
Commercial property cracks start to show
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/07/cnprop107.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
A 6.7pc overnight slump in the value of the investments came as the head of one of Britain’s biggest fund management groups warned of deteriorating outlook for the property sector.
Question: What would you call a realtor who refuses to bring forward an offer below asking, citing that they have already sold 90% of the units at asking or above.
Fired.
jb
ChiFi (268)-
Was it you? Sorry.
A Golden Kielbasa to you!
Are you guys/gals telling this girl to buy really being serious? C’mon, you are just pulling her leg, right?
jb
edjs (282)-
What does “10% to 30% off” mean? Is that across all the different model types? What are the recent (within past 3 months) comps on the model you want? Come up with one number, not a 20% range.
If you’re offering at the level of recently-sold comps, you should be fine. If you’re trying to take big $$$ off the recent comps, understand that probably won’t happen. This market is going down is slow, small and painful increments…not in big chunks.
Why about a “rate your realtor” feature on this website? Buyers/sellers can rate a realtor they are working with and provide an explanation backing their ratings. Realtors can respond.
Grim (287)-
She needs some excitement in her life.
Damn…29 y/o and she can’t even get pi**ed off! Scared to “live in sin” vs. Mommy & Daddy’s wishes…and then I call her out as a troll & she apologizes to me!
I’m seeing Birkenstocks, a wardrobe full of batik skirts, a radio permanently tuned to NPR…and possible heavy marijuana use (that would explain the $25,000 savings after seven years at home).
bear,
I have a feeling I’d be facing a lawsuit the day the first negative comment was posted.
jb
bear (289)-
Do that, and I’ll start rating my clients.
Guaranteed: my ratings will be funnier than yours.
Grim (291)-
Truth is always the primary defense in libel suits.
clot,
Client ratings is also not a bad idea. These ratings will help first time buyers/sellers draw clear boundries when negotiating with realtors.
jb,
I didn’t realize that.
Njrebear and afe,
Thank you for your responses. The suburban towns data is stuff that I gathered last year and kept. The % change data for that time period isn’t posted online anymore, and I wanted to use data from the same source in order to make a fair comparision, so I used the 2000 and 2005 figures to calculate the numbers for Jersey City, Hoboken, and Weehawken.
I checked the source data again, and it seems the % change figures provided are slightly different that the result one gets by manually calculating the % change.
The 2000-2006 % change data is available for all the towns. Here is where it is.
Go to http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers
Click home sales > rank towns > percent change, 2000-06
Select a county to the data for each town in the county.
Change in residential real estate prices in North Jersey suburban counties’ nicest towns, 2000-2006
Far Hills, Somerset 203.1%
Harding, Morris 89.7%
Alpine, Bergen 136.8%
Summit, Union 72.4%
Millburn, Essex 87.9%
Cranbury, Middlesex 87.9%
Change in residential real estate prices in Hudson County towns across from midtown and downtown Manhattan, 2000-2006
Jersey City, 169.2%
Hoboken, 109.4%
Weehawken, 126.7%
Sorry, Cranbury should be 29.3%, not 87.9%.
Clot, I don’t think Bru is a troll. She’s seriously trying to be a writer, but lacks the ingredients to compose more than little weiner hot dogs. (There we go again…Chilean Gewurz anyone?)
The rest of her life is a fantasy world of safety, aided and abetted by parents dependent on being parents. Who knows, maybe it saves their marriage?
Bru could always just stay there and do her time. I wonder if she’s an only child?
I personally don’t think her life would be salvaged by buying a house or renting. The only thing that can save her from the tombstone that says “Mother, Father and Daughter,” is f e a r.
Fear in the belly makes the brain go to full power. That doesn’t mean renting some apartment in Cliffside and knowing Dad is going to bail you out if you can’t cover the new tires on the Volvo.
“I’m not having any kids.” Maybe that should be the first thing Bru does, then. You fight the things you fear (but need) instead of embracing them.
How much texture would her writing show after getting the parental boot, trying to raise a kid as a single mother on $42k a year, and having a safely distant boyfriend far away in Middlesex county?
Even better, she could take her pregnancy, her $25k, and drive her Volvo to whatever place she picks out of a hat.
Bru, I’m not joking.
chicagofinance #271,
Say what?!
Doesn’t Bru make $31K a year? That ain’t adult money. Her living situation is appropriate. You cannot chastise her for “only” saving $25,000 in seven years when she barely has enough money to buy lunch and coffee. If she moves out, she will bulldoze the sum in under a year even in the best of circumstances.
pret: come up for air
Clotpoll Says:
July 7th, 2007 at 7:15 am
I’m seeing Birkenstocks, a wardrobe full of batik skirts, a radio permanently tuned to NPR…and possible heavy marijuana use (that would explain the $25,000 savings after seven years at home).
clot: lots of Smartfood…..you need lots of Smartfood
She makes 42k. Just a few k under median if she lived in Middlesex and commuted up to JC for her job. She’s not getting any sympathy from me for making 42k a year. Look at her first post. After-tax 31.
She’s blowing it all.
It’s one thing to call people who post utter nonsense all day long a troll, but now the “regulars” (and you know who you are: you post here a minimum of five times a day and present yourself as experts on every topic anyone brings up) are going to gang up on someone who was really just asking for advice? Seems kind of cruel to me, but maybe it works to make you feel superior.
Not superior, PeaceNow. Cruel is lying. When advice is from the heart, it’s not cruel. And anyone who has a public blog (and links to it with their posts) can and should expect and cherish criticm if it is intricately connected to their request for advice. The criticism can be tossed or accepted. Whatever the requesting person wants to do.
When I regurgitate something someone posted to point out their behavior from a different perspective, is that cruel?
question if anyone knows:
On the mls, what is the difference between a house in conditional contract and one that is pending?
thanks,
Clotpoll Says:
July 7th, 2007 at 7:15 am
I’m seeing Birkenstocks, a wardrobe full of batik skirts, a radio permanently tuned to NPR…and possible heavy marijuana use (that would explain the $25,000 savings after seven years at home).
Clot, that was the 70’s!
You’re showing your age, dude :)
I came across this ad on Craig’s. It’s a realtor from Weichert touting resales in an active adult community vs. buying new from the developer.
The end result: This all sounds so dreadful, why would anyone buy either way?
I wonder how many of these “adult” communities will fail. There seem to be an awful lot that were built in recent years with an amazing number in the “luxury” category.
I wonder if some of these “adult” communities will be re-designated as open housing for people of all ages.
http://cnj.craigslist.org/rfs/367927717.html
scribe, what I don’t understand about that ad, is…if the original owners thought it was soooo great two years ago to buy the referenced 2-year old homes, why are they selling and caught between homes?
Pat,
I would guess they can’t sell their original homes.
Like musical chairs … and the music stopped.
Wow, I see the only group more hated than housing-bubble-deniers on this blog is young people ;)
Bru, I’m your age. I say stay at home and reduce your spending. Accumulate. Once you’re “on the outside”, you’ll need every penny. No sense in rushing it.
Hey, not everyone in Europe lives with their parents until their thirties.
Maybe Italian men can’t separate from Mama, but in the UK, over 18 and living at home = laughingstock.
Bru should definitely not buy. She won’t get the mortgagae and she is at high risk for foreclosure (not to mention if she buys a condo in Cliffside Park and loses it to foreclosure, she will ruin my property value)
Another real estate auction coming to our area:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/08/realestate/01lizo.html?_r=1&ref=realestate&oref=slogin
#282
Many realtors get around the rules requiring them to present ALL offers by just not writing up an offer. This is where verbal offers come into play.
Market Slump? What market Slump?
Bubble Proof areas:
http://money.aol.com/cnnmoney/realestate/canvas3/_a/where-the-housing-boom-goes-on/20070626115209990001
Bru:
Get out of your comfort zone, as Pat said. And absolutely, positively throw out those stupid Sex and the City DVDs, as someone else said.
If you want that “fabulous” lifestyle, you’re either going to have to change careers to earn more money, or find a rich husband.
Whining about how NJ seems to be only affordable for bankers, lawyers and doctors won’t ever help your situation. Either change careers or move to another locale that has a lower cost of living where you can live comfortably doing whatever it is you’ve chosen to do.
You’re at a different junction in your life than you think. You should not be asking whether you should be renting or buying, or saving money and that nonsense. Sitting there saving money only maintains the status quo, and that would the WORST possible thing you could do.
You should be asking yourself whether you should be changing careers or moving elsewhere out of NJ.
Robert T,
Were’nt you getting an offer today?? Did’nt someone call you and tell you someone said someone is bringing in an offer? Or something like that??
KL
i guess they offered less than purchase price.
JB writes in #64:
“I’ll never tell a client that I won’t present an offer. Not accepted? So what? We just move right on to the next offer, we’ve got the luxury of inventory right now.”
JB, many realtors are worried about their ‘rep’ in the neighborhood. They don’t want to be seen as ‘the lowballer’ but the rain maker that brings in top offers.
It’s an ego/status thing.
gary, syncmaster (maybe others):
When you guys say you’re in “IT”, do you mean on the networking/sysadmin side, or on the application and database development side?
Regardless, I’d have to agree that $85k is a more junior level salary in IT in NYC, even if you’re not working in finance. Anyone with 5+ years of experience and are good at what they do should be easily clearing $100k a year.
NYC salary inflation over the past 3 years has also greatly affected IT.
This can’t be good for existing homeowners
trying to sell!!
http://housingdoom.com/
iT’S FUN WATCHING THE AFTERMATH OF A BURSTING BUBBLE. YOU COULD WARN WARN AND WARN IN THE PAST AS THE BUBBLE PROGRESSED, BUT THE GENIUSES ALL KEPT THEIR EAR PLUGS IN.
D-E-S-P-E-R-A-T-I-O-N IS IN THE AIR.
READ MY LIPS YOU GRUBBING GREEDY BUNCH:
“REALLY” LOWER YOUR PRICE!
babababababa BUST!
hehehhehe
LOWER YOUR PRICE GRUBBERS…OR ELSE NO SALE AND EVEN MORE LOWER PRICES NEXT YEAR.
GOT IT!
GOT IT!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
I just had an agent tell me this is the best time of the year to buy since houses start going back up in September.
RE: Jersey City office space / real estate
The State of NJ is providing huge tax breaks to new residents for several years (7?) to re-establish the area, and after that, you’re on your own with the punks and hoodlums roaming the streets after dark.
YOU AIN’T ENTITLED TO 2005 PRICES.
GOT IT!
GOT IT!
BO0OOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
bairen Says:
July 7th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
I just had an agent tell me this is the best time of the year to buy since houses start going back up in September
=============
HAHAHA
ASK’EM HOW THE WALMART LIKE BRAND FRISKIES TASTE
“But the agent got hit with a lot of people who thought an estate sale was an opportunity to lowball and flip.”
The best deals I’ve seen in the past few years have all been estate sales / nursing home sales. It’s just a fact that such a property is a burden and expense to carry.
#327 Read my Lips,
I wonder if the houses that were listed in the spring and haven’t sold by September will start going up in price? I can just see it now.
Young couple August 15th, “Look, its a POS cape for only 519k”
Husband “let’s think about it”
September : Wife “I told you we should have bought that POS in August, it’s now Sept 3rd and has been relisted at 550k”
Can anyone give me some info on GSMLS # 2419974?
Thank you (in advance) so much!
Allison OL
67 Decker Rd-DOM 43- olp 425 no other history recorded
Cheers!
Bleed’em Dry!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
fanshawe 302,
I work in Somerset County. I’ve always worked in Somerset County. Never in NYC.
Wide ranging experience (development, sysadmin, prod support, QA, project mngmt, client relationship mgmt) with web systems, well over 5 years. Haven’t broken into six-figs yet. Maybe because I don’t work in the city or maybe because I’m a pi$$ poor negotiator…
Read My Lips,
Obvivously nobody in Cliffside Park is listening to you. Devleopers here are raising their prices by $300,000.
Heard a NAR ad on the radio yesterday – “when you have a family, it’s always the right time to buy” – with a soothing melody in the background.
And the Ditech ads crack me up too – “People are smart”.
It just isn’t a weekend without BC Bob making me laugh. Love the guy.
About the only thing as funny as BC Bob is one link to an auction for a house in the $12-$15 million range. % of people in the NYC area buying in that price range: .05%. Next thing you know, when prices are dropping is brought up, you’ll hear, ‘but there was an auction!’
As for the young people stuff, my wife and I are in that boat. We’re in the 27-30 range and were able to save a considerable amt of cash for our downpayment. Granted, we have pretty good jobs, but we are also the only people in our age bracket without a flat screen TV. We buy groceries and cook, very rarely buy new clothes and electronics, and we use Marriott points/Amex points as often as we can.
I’m 100% confident that those who NEED to sell for whatever reason will be lowering prices big-time in the winter, so we’ll wait for then. All the jokers looking to cash out, sorry, you missed the boat. It left in 2005.
RAISE YOUR PRICE GRUBBERS…OR ELSE NO SALE AND EVEN MORE HIGHER PRICES NEXT YEAR.
GOT IT!
GOT IT!
YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!
One developer raised a price $300,000 on a condo (ha!) that was in the $2.5 million range. % of the NJ purchasing population affected by that: probably 2%.
As it’s been shown on here before, houses are dropping in some areas of NNJ by an average of $6-$10k a month.
#337,
So there are goint to be massive price drops in only a few months? HA! You are funny. This is going to be a VERY SLOW market slump. Prices will only come down a few pennies at a time.
“As it’s been shown on here before, houses are dropping in some areas of NNJ by an average of $6-$10k a month.”
SO WHAT? I can guaranteee that SOLD prices ar enot dropping $6-10k a month. Clot is right. The only prices that matter are SOLD prices, and, right now, they are basically flat.
#333 syncmaster
I’m pretty much in the same boat. I work in Hudson county as a network admin, and I’m not cracking six-figures either.
Love the job, hate the area. In fact, I’ve often thought of going to the CEO directly and begging him to re-locate the company. lol
“All the jokers looking to cash out, sorry, you missed the boat. It left in 2005.”
My boat is still in the port. Your boat is upside down. It’s called the Poseidon.
Rhyming-
Thank you so much. Appealing price…Decker Rd, not so much. Might drive by while I’m in town, anyways.
I like this house. This is the only house I would consider putting a lowball on:
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2645655&id=999999
I lurk here a lot and this weekend thread is appalling–not at all the norm. Maybe sellers are hurting now so you’ve all turned your anger on each other.
justbought (200), The Bergen-Main line is a pretty good commute.
Bru, if you read between the insults I think you’re getting some good advice. Decide what you value most; the occupation, the location, the boyfriend, and make that your priority. Accept the tradeoffs.
If you want to keep the occupation, move somewhere where the money goes further. You’ll lose the location and see less of the boyfriend.
If you want to keep the location, change the occupation. You may see less of the boyfriend if school or training is required.
If you want to keep the boyfriend, get married (and please don’t blow your savings on a fancy wedding). Move in together and get the best place you can on your combined income.
There are various “rent vs. buy” calculators out there on the web, maybe you can run one and show it to your boyfriend if renting comes out the better choice.
“I have a feeling I’d be facing a lawsuit the day the first negative comment was posted.”
jb
You probabaly would. I am sure there are lots of realtors who would like to see this site shut down and they can get an injunction, ordering you to do so if lible is posted here.
I suggest you wait until NJRich (or NJ Rob, whatever his name is) posts MLS price declines on some houses.
Couple of weeks back, he had one dropping around $325,000 in the span of 8 or so months. Of course it was overpriced to begin with … for 2007 prices. The initial # would have worked in 2005, but now they are two years late and they had to drop the price BIG-TIME.
It’s fine if you don’t see things that way … the actual numbers say otherwise.
Cap,
SOLD prices are not coming down in drastic amounts. Look at the numbers.
I don’t have access to the MLS. Please show me these numbers you speak of.
All the bagholders who are lowering their asking prices by 6-10k each month are the #’s I’m talking about. And the proof is in the posters who cite actual MLS stats on here. So I’m definitely interested in the numbers you are referring to.
And since I, nor the majority of the population on this board isn’t looking at million dollar homes, i’d appreciate it if you showed me SOLD prices for homes under 1 million. Thanks.
JB, many realtors are worried about their ‘rep’ in the neighborhood. They don’t want to be seen as ‘the lowballer’ but the rain maker that brings in top offers.
You know, I was going to say something to that effect. I’ve actually had two agents tell me something very similar. Both of those agents specialized in a single town and were both very well known there.
jb
Well, would you rather have the rep as the “lowball realtor” or the rep as the “realtor who never sells any houses”?
“Well, would you rather have the rep as the “lowball realtor” or the rep as the “realtor who never sells any houses”?”
Both realtors are the same thing because one who goes around presenting lowballs is not going to sell any houses.
In real estate, reputation is EVERYTHING! Without it, you end up in McDonald’s flipping burgers. If I was an agent, especially one who was starting out, I would not present any lowballs. If that is against the law, sue me! All the agents I know of that tell you there is an offer on a house when there really is not never get into any trouble.
Troll- any luck with the ‘numbers’ you speak of?
I have all the numbers in the world. What towns are we speaking of?
I have numbers for Ridgewood in front of me. But I am not sure how you wil determine if prices have gone down based on them.
Here are some:
398 Hamilton Road
5/14/07
$799,000
124 California Street
5/23/07
$670,000
Uh … can you pull the MLS stats on those to see where the asking price started and how long it took to get to 799k and 670k? Standing alone, these numbers mean nothing.
Thanks.
Cap,
Please ignore him.
jb
Sorry,
I do not have access to the MLS.
Just looked up the first one on zillow … $17,534 in taxes last year. Yikes. That’s over $1,400 a month.
Zillow also tells me the second house (California St) last was sold in 2002:
08/12/2002: $596,900
Nearly five years of ownership and it appears as if the net was a mere $74,000. Had the owners sold in 2005, it would have probably been doubled. Would love to have seen an original asking price. Probably was $800k.
Ok, sorry JB.
And, based on what I hear from the realtors I speak with, the vast majority homes sell within 95% of the asking price if they are priced correctly. The ones with MLS access on this site just cherry pick the sellers who are drastically lowering their prices.
James, can’t you implement some sort of minimum time limit between posts so at least the troll can’t fill up the comments with his nonsense.
Well, I have an update about my offer that is MIA:
This morning the buyer’s agent called my realtor about making a verbal offer. My agent said NO, he wants all offers in writing to show that they are committed to the property. I am still waiting for the written offer.
RE: 366
Actually, I haven’t found any good LI real rstate sites. There are some “AHHHH!!! THE BUBBLE IS POPPING!!!” sites, but nothing with the level of knowledge, interesting discussion and varied perspective I find here.
The North Jersey housing market is similar to Long Island in many respects. It’s not exactly the same, but it’s close enough for my purposes.
I do read some national housing bubble blogs for news and links. However, I stay out of their comment sections because it seems to be mostly a lot of cheering at others misfortune. Yes, a lot of people made bad decisions; getting caught up in the housing frenzy, overextending themselves and using exotic loan products. A lot of these people are going to lose their homes. While it’s mostly their fault for getting themselves into their mess, that’s no excuse for dancing around and going “WOOO!!”.
This is the best real estate site I’ve found so far, so I’m going to hang out here unless our host objects.
Bru
David is right, there is plenty here to work with, and you have a lot more issues to deal with than rent/buy.
If your life isn’t what you want, make a change.
Your boyfriend – is he really great or just OK? Worth moving for? A keeper?
Your job- OK, the pay sucks for the area. However you didn’t say how it fits into your career plan, if you have one. Is this job a fabulous opportunity, a great step in the right direction, teaching you everything you need to know and impossible to replicate? If yes, you might have to stick it out. If no, would you rather make a little less elsewhere (maybe) or even the same, in a cheaper area where you could afford a better lifestyle? If no, what is stopping you from looking for a better paying job in your field? Or from freelancing on the side?
Jersey – What is keeping you here?
While you have missed the early twenties boat, you are still young. You are not married, you don’t have kids and you don’t have a mortgage. In other words, the only person you are responsible for is yourself. You have ultimate flexibility.
Do you want to try out the Manhattan lifestyle for a while (I guarantee that if you expect Sex in the City “fabulous” you will be disappointed)? Go move in with roommates. See how you like it. Want to see if you have what it takes for a high flying magazine job – take a chance, start applying for them. Want your relationship to move forward – do something about it, you can’t live at home thinking forever.
Take a chance.
Ugh. Glad I spent the day out. More Ann Landers-type advice to our new pet, Bru. More gang-sparring with Ducky.
OK, so she’s not a troll (I was just trying to get a rise out of her.). Now, this has just become boring.
Is Bru really trying to become a writer? I have some advice for her:
1. Obtain a life.
2. Get pissed off.
I’ve been reading this blog for a while..clotpoll is a miserable being… severe inferiority complex… proved by his being a Mets fan and posting on here multiple times a day… what else does he do with his life?? He reminds me of a nerd who sits behind a computer all day on chat rooms. He makes himself feel superior by putting down people who have not made good financial decisions in life and are looking for advice… he puts other down to make himself feel better. Hey, Clotpoll.. have you been correct about EVERY DECISION you made in your life? Are you perfect?
Lurk (369)-
I am certainly not what you say. I do not advertise myself as perfect, and I make massive mistakes on a daily basis.
However, unlike you, I do not hide in the shadows and wait to pounce when someone else has stated a strong opinion. BTW, I’m not cracking on Bru because of her financial status (or anything else she is or has done)…I’m busting on her because she seems like she’s ODing on Wellbutrin. The flatness of her affect comes thru in her writing in such a way that I get the feeling she’ll be one of those people they find sitting in the living room with her parents’ rotting corpses, wondering what to do next.
I do more in an hour than you do in a week. I’m not miserable, I’m mad; so piss off.
Clotpoll Says:
July 7th, 2007 at 9:14 pm
“I do more in an hour than you do in a week.”
How the f— do you know?
From Newsweek:
The Spooky Echoes of ’87
I’m still bullish about stocks, but there is one spooky memory that perches in my mind like the canary in the coal mine. It relates to the U.S. stock market in 1987, and the October crash that shook the world. Then, as now, the American stock market drove the world, and a bust here caused a bust there. Even as I write this, I can’t help but think of an old Russian saying, “Ignore the past and you will lose an eye; dwell on the past and you will lose both of them.” So keep that in mind as you read on.
Still, the historical similarities are eerie. By 1986 and 1987, stock prices had made a strong recovery from the stagflation and the extended, painful bear market of the 1970s to 1982. Both the U.S. bull market and the economy had been rising for almost five years, and were starting to look long in the tooth, while inflation and interest rates had been declining, and price-earnings ratios had been rising.
In addition, there was talk of trouble brewing in the American savings-and-loan industry, just as today there is fear of the subprime-mortgage market. Back then, a wild, speculative bubble was building in Japan, very similar to what is going on in China today. The Japanese market was selling at close to 70 times earnings and every mama-san was trading stocks. There was much talk of the shrinking supply of stocks as buybacks and private equity were reducing the number of shares outstanding, and much chatter about the flood of liquidity that was lifting stocks. Sound familiar?
By 1986 and early 1987, many investors, still scarred by memories of the bear market, were suffering from severe acrophobia. Respected economists and market gurus were warning that stocks were getting expensive, that inflation and interest rates would soon be rising, and that unsound and speculative financial practices were rampant. They railed against programmed trading, options, the newfangled hedge funds and something called portfolio insurance. They were right to fret, but they were too early, which in investing can be the same as being wrong. In other words, the general dyspeptic mood then was similar to today’s.
From Newsweek:
Real Estate: Call Your Agent
House shopping? It’s good to have help, especially in a buyer’s market like this. If you’re just driving yourself from one open house to another, you’re missing homes buried in the multiple-listing services that only agents have access to. And an agent who specializes in helping buyers may be able to negotiate a better deal than you could.
But not all buyer agents are created equal. Most home shoppers use agents who work for companies that also list properties, and they’re likely to steer you to company listings first, says Stephen Brobeck of the Consumer Federation of America. “It’s an irreconcilable conflict of interest,” he says.
To get around that, you can find a buyers-only agent at the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents (naeba.org). If there isn’t one in your neighborhood, you can use a selling agent as a buyer agent, but do some screening. Ask about their track record of saving clients money, their training in negotiations and property evaluation, and their loyalty to you. When they suggest homes to visit, ask if they are listed by their own company. That doesn’t necessarily make them bad choices, but it does mean the agent has a bigger incentive for you to buy it.
What about the fear that listing agents won’t want to work with you if they know they have to split a commission with your buyer agent? (That’s the way most buyer agents are paid.) Listing agents are required to show your offers to the owners, even if they’d rather not. And in this slow market, it’s not such a big worry. The bidding wars are long gone; now selling agents are happy to get their hands on a contract from anyone.
Clotpoll Says:
July 7th, 2007 at 9:14 pm
“unlike you, I do not hide in the shadows and wait to pounce when someone else has stated a strong opinion. ”
Lurker has stated a STRONG opinion: “clotpoll is a miserable being… severe inferiority complex”.
Clotpoll pounced Lurker: “I do more in an hour than you do in a week.”
Clotpoll says:”she’ll be one of those people they find sitting in the living room with her parents’ rotting corpses”
Clotpoll, how are your parents? Hope they are doing well.
There is a lot of useless venting that goes on here as on other blogs. Many participants find it difficult to ignore the venting of others.
Noting this lack of self-control provides a reasonable way to judge the value of their other opinions.
clean (374)-
One dead, one alive.
Your mama?
lurk (371)-
Go back to lurking. I now see why that’s your preferred mode.
I see there are a lot of new screen names lately. New users or current ones posting from multiple computers?
Don’t worry Clotpoll, there are just some people here who like to attack anyone who disagrees with them. I do not think you are that dumb.
I’m definitely getting pissed at the buyers who were supposed to have made an offer. Today they wanted to make a verbal offer and when my agent said no, they seemed to have disappeared into thin air. If I do not have a written offer on my desk within 48 hours, I am going to be less flexible on the price. If there is no offer within 72 hours, I won’t sell for less than asking price should they put an offer in.
Troll, since you’re pissed at no offer, go away from the computer for a while and bang your head against a wall. That might drill some sense into you and deter you from posting nonsensical stuff on this blog for a while.
Why don’t you go off this site for a while? Why are you here on a Saturday night? Don’t you have better things to do? I have no life, but it seems that you also lack one.
“Forbes Magazine” is rubbish.
sas
“What, exactly, is wrong with people who speak English as a second language?”
If there are too many in one area, the RE values go down.
don’t blame me…blame the biz.
sas
“If there are too many in one area, the RE values go down.”
Really? So the Koreans are bringing down prices in Cliffside Park, Palisades Park, and Fort Lee?
“Why does everyone keep talking like finance is the only decent job out there? I am sure that doctors and lawyers can easily afford Manhattan”
you would be surprized how many of these blokes live pay check to pay check.
WHy do you think lawyers chase ambulances and doctors do unnecessary lab tests, unnecessary surgeries, and things of the like.
Its because they are flat ass broke and sucker joe 6 pack back so they can just stay afloat.
sas
Your forgetting “Korean” language usually comes with a high probability that they have $$ in the bank.
come now, you know these things.
sas
Robert (do you like that better than Donny?)
How do you know someone on this site isn’t just jerking your chain with the offer?
I’ve been pulling for you, though, on the whole offer thing, cause I’m interested.
There are not enough sellers posting on this blog. It makes me think the inventory is really low in NJ or that nobody selling a house even uses a computer.
It looks like there is a lot of buzz within the Korean community about condos in Cliffside Park:
http://www.heykorean.com/hkboard/room/rent_view.asp?page=1&id=48167&rpic=1&rkind=9
Does anybody agree with this theory:
“Duane LeGate, president of House Buyer Network, arranges quick sales for home owners in distress. He claims he can predict where markets will go bad by looking at the traffic on his Web site.”
“Some markets are turning positive, according to LeGate. The number of client contacts from Maricopa County, Arizona – the Phoenix area – dropped this year by about 38 percent.
Also looking good are Prince William County, Virginia in the D.C. metro area, where client contacts fell 37 percent, and nearby Fairfax County, where they’re down 40 percent.”
http://tinyurl.com/2237mm
“How do you know someone on this site isn’t just jerking your chain with the offer?”
I think that is unlikely. If somebody on this site was the person who came to my house, they messed with the wrong person.
“There are not enough sellers posting on this blog. It makes me think the inventory is really low in NJ or that nobody selling a house even uses a computer.”
Maybe because they get scared off by many of the 30% depreciation people here. LOL
Yeah, Beltran!!!!
Florida’s condo market is a disaster. It is grond zero of the market slump. On the NJ Gold COast, the market for luxury condos remains strong. Devleopers are cancelling incentives and raising prices. If they are doing this in Cliffisde Park, you can bet your life that the same thing is happening in Hoboken.
#372-
jb, the market recovered all its gains in 2 years after that October day. Those who stayed the course in the market were rewarded w/the longest bull market every recorded.
#15 Carlos Beltran | CF
2007 Salary: $13,571,429
O.K. Does this guy love what he does, or what.
Robert Troll
As I said in my earlier post- someone said someone was bringing in an offer sometime. Helllooooo.
If that offer comes in it will be low, very low. You remember the conversations from earlier this week, regarding agents not wanting to write up low offers.
KL
“If that offer comes in it will be low, very low.”
And how do you know that? If the offer is put into writing, then I am pretty sure it will be decent.
If the offer is NOT put into writing, however, then it was probabaly a lowball. I will just have to wait to see how the situation turns out.
http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1183929767.php
I’m in my mid-30s, own in Manhattan mortgage-free, and have more than enough in savings to buy outright a certain property in Cliffside Park. Obviously, anyone here that has less than me has made some serious mistakes in their lives and needs direction from me. And if you want commentary from me about your personal failings, just ask whether it’s better to buy or rent in New Jersey.
I’m serious.
Really serious.
Seriously serious.
Hello
Question for the clotpoll, bcbob, chicagofinance, unrealtor. Others feel free to add their views.
Q. Has anyone offered 50c on the dollar on a reo property?
Q. How do you go about doing it?
Q. Is there any person in the bank I can speak to.
Q. These for countrywide properties in chicago, IL
Q. Should I wait until the school starts,at that time the banks know they are stuck with this stuff for another year?
Q. Personal expereiences welcome
Thank you, from chicago, IL
ps. I used to live in montclair and now I am in chicago.
From phillyBurbs.com:
Population is up in county, but 19 towns show slight dip
The overall population of Burlington County continued to increase, but the latest figures from the U.S. Census Bureau also show that 19 of the 40 towns in the county lost population from 2005 to 2006.
High local taxes, development-shy local governments, and an aging population all contributed to population losses, according to some municipal officials.
…
Beverly, Burlington City and Mount Holly are among a group of eight towns in Burlington County in which populations for 2006 were less than populations in 2000. The others are Bordentown City, New Hanover, Medford Lakes, Riverton and Wrightstown.
High property taxes plague New Jersey residents, and many of the towns that lost population were among those with the highest tax rates.
Beverly, for example, had the highest tax rate in 2005 among all 40 towns in Burlington County. Riverton and Medford Lakes had the second- and third-highest rates.
“Sure, taxes are a factor,” Wetherill said.
“Nobody likes high taxes, but we’re doing the best we can like everybody else.”
…
In addition, older towns such as Beverly, Burlington City, Mount Holly and Riverside are planning redevelopment projects to attract new residents and businesses, Remsa said.
Beverly Mayor Jean Wetherill said the city has high hopes for its redevelopment plans.
“Our population now includes a lot of elderly and empty nesters, but with our redevelopment we hope to attract some younger families and build our population up again,” Wetherill said.
From the Home News Tribune:
Bank will foreclose on Kara project
Amboy National Bank will foreclose on Kara at Crine West in Marlboro after Kara Homes decided not to include the development in its reorganization plans.
Kara Homes’ financial backer, Plainfield Specialty Holdings II Inc., a hedge fund based in Greenwich, Conn., had an option to buy 15 homes, which are under contract but not complete, at Crine West for $7.24 million. But Plainfield decided not to go forward with the purchase because it was too expensive, said David L. Bruck, a lawyer for Kara Homes.
If Plainfieid had purchased the property, home buyers, who in some cases had put down hundreds of thousands of dollars in deposits, would have gotten their houses. Now they will likely have to try to recoup their deposit money in bankruptcy court.
“They (Amboy) are going to begin foreclosure proceedings,” said Amboy spokesman Steve Lubetkin. Foreclosure would allow Amboy the opportunity to find a developer willing to complete Crine West or sell the property, he said.
The potential sale was part of a global settlement Kara Homes reached with Amboy National Bank, one of Kara’s largest creditors. Amboy is owed $17.8 million for Crine West.
Of the 84 planned homes at Crine West, 36 have been sold and closed, 15 are under contract, three homes are partially completed with no contracts, and 30 lots remain unsold, according to court papers.
…
Maplewood said it would complete 13 of Kara’s projects. Of the 471 homes in those projects, 129 were already under contract when Kara filed for bankruptcy last fall.
While the proposed reorganization plan held out the possibility that Crine West might be among them, a deadline to purchase the 15 homes passed a week ago.
“It was too expensive,” Bruck said.
The slower housing market played a role in the decision, Fishman said.
“It would have been too long to achieve profitability, given the cost of the property and the amount of dollars to complete the existing houses and build new houses,” he said. “The economics of the transaction were not there.”
Q. Has anyone offered 50c on the dollar on a reo property?
Q. How do you go about doing it?
Q. Is there any person in the bank I can speak to.
Q. These for countrywide properties in chicago, IL
Q. Should I wait until the school starts,at that time the banks know they are stuck with this stuff for another year?
Q. Personal expereiences welcome
Thank you, from chicago, IL
ps. I used to live in montclair and now I am in chicago.
#404,
50c?? Think more like 5c.
Are you willing to move to Detroit, MI? You can get them for free as long as you’re willing to take them. How many do you want? 200? 500?
Pat (388)-
I give every one of my sellers this blog address. To a person, they refuse to even take a look.
Clot (406)
What do you think that’s about?
#388
Everyone is a seller at the right price, I will sell you my house today at the right price, but I know enough that it will not happen. That’s why I read this blog and know that my house is under water, way under.
exNJ (401)-
There are exceptions to every case, but by the time most homes have gone REO, been prepped for sale and put on the market, the last thing that lender is going to do is put them out at too high a price. Most of the REO I’m encountering now is priced to market. The bank has already taken a bath and isn’t going to compound that by tolling days-on-market.
If you’re looking for big discounts, you’ve got to catch these homes in the pre-foreclosure stage.
Again, there are always exceptions.
frank (405)-
Actually, in places like Detroit, lots of REO gets sold to individual investors in blocks of 20-30 homes at a pop, for between $1,000-$3,000 a house.
The investors then send in a “ground team” to post handwritten “For Sale” signs and sell these properties- as is- on what is essentially a 3-year installment purchase basis. After those three years are up, the buyer is given title to the home. The theory is: a buyer who’s adventurous enough to come in and plunk down $600-$800 a month will pay the “mortgage” every month and expend the effort to rehab the property. If not, the investor kicks out the resident and starts over. When these deals hit right, an investor can make 20-25K on a property he never sees and never improves.
lost (406)-
Pure denial. Every seller thinks HIS house is the one that’s different & won’t get pounded down to the level of today’s market.
The grim reaper spares no one.
#410,
Do you have any more info on this? Any contacts? We have hundreds of properties in Detroit and not buyers in sight, only squatters.
We had a job search insert in the Sunday paper down here in the northern suburbs of Phila.
For most of these jobs, you’d be able to take your pick of a wide range of homes. A renovated cape in a very good school system for $280k, a beautiful Victorian or Colonial (not so good schools, but excellent private schools)for $300k, or a newer McMansion type in great schools for $450k. There are also many, many homes available for $200k (that were $100k 1999).
For anyone who doesn’t want to move too far from NJ, is Bucks County too far? Is salary range in the $50-$60k not enough to get you to move for affordable housing?
Here are some of the jobs:
Director, Community Development (a township job) $53,8 to $83k range.
Assistant Network Admin (School System) the salary wasn’t listed, but I’m taking an educated guess at $54k)
Assistants: $18 to start High School Grads needed, 40 positions to fill by 7/13.
(That ones at a candy company).
Anyway, would any readers here (most of you obviously live in North Jersey) move an hour and a half away to PA for housing reasons?
Chuchundra Says:
July 7th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
James, can’t you implement some sort of minimum time limit between posts so at least the troll can’t fill up the comments with his nonsense.
Grim, is it possible to do that?
Does the technology exist for that?
Anti-spam?
Having lived in Hoboken for 9 yrs and having bought and sold two condos in that span I can tell you there is NOT all of a sudden a bunch of wealthy NYC finance people moving into town. The rise in prices was purely a function of the lowest interest rates of a lifetime. I don’t know the figures on the number of subprime loans but that really doesn’t mean anything when you consider the number of I/O’s, piggyback’s and option arms floating around town.
Moreover your claims of this sudden immigration of wealthy New Yorkers would presumably be seen in a sharp rise in median income in the census figures for Hoboken and there is isn’t any to be found.
Basically Hoboken is just like any other town in the area caught up in the hysterics of the housing market of the past 5-7 yrs.
For a good laugh, check this out…
http://tinyurl.com/3a79ys
Did anyone see Al Gore in Giants stadium yesterday?, he looks like he has swallowed some enormously amount of green house gases.
Guys,
I’m in Washington DC this week, invited by a broke homebuilder who says that even in this market he can make money because of the pristine land he owns. He went bancrupt on a couple of projects in Vegas and can’t get any credit anywhere.(interesting).
What does this tell me about credit tightening? He paid for my trip and since I’m a little bored I aggreed to come a nd check it out. I knew something is wrong as soon as I stepped out of the airport and he sent two bombshell blondes to pick me up. And all they can talk about is how smashed they got last night and ended up making out with each other.
Out of curiosity I decided two continue this trip. I love being ALBANIAN.
I’ll keep you posted on this scheme.
What’s the deal with being Albanian?
Clotpoll #288
Some of the condos we have bid on:
Condo 1. Asking spring/summer 2006 650k, sold November 2006 for 563k. We bid 550k in may 2006.
Condo 2. Asking spring/summer 2006 800k, asking spring/summer 2007 799k. Our offer 600k. Realtor refuses to bring forward our offer.
Condo 3. Asking summer 2006 700k,
asking summer 2007 699k. Our offer 550k. Realtor refuses to bring forward our offer.
Condo 4. Asking fall 2005/spring 2006 595k. Sold December 2006 for 442k. We bid 500k in March 2006.
Condo 5. Asking summer 2006 449k. Sold April 2007 for 403k. We bid 400k in fall 2006.
Condo 6. Asking summer 2006 449k. Sold March 2007 for 410k. Our bid 400k.
We haven’t bid on anything so far in 2007.
edjs
re post 60:
ML,
The majority of people, even in NNJ, do not make $100K, even if it seems like it when you read the comments on this site.
If I had to guess, I would bet that even many people who comment here are not making $100K.
If you’re looking for a reason for rising inventories, income levels are a great place to start.
Question for those of you who can remember the last bubble (or last 2). After the last bubble or 2, did selling prices go back to where they would have been had there been no bubble? By that I mean 3-5% appreciation a year.
There are a lot of people who do not believe prices will drop 50%. According to my calculations, had there not been a bubble, a fair price on many properties would be 50% off(offering 5% a year appreciation on comps). Thanks.
edjs –
Sounds like your timing is off. Are you looking at your perceived value of a condo without taking the sellers position/level of desparation into consideration?
lisoosh, I was thinking that edjs is functioning like a free shill for the real estate agents around there.
Should be getting a fee from them.
Pat – I would seriously consider Bucks county.
I’m not North Jersey though – I live in Central, husband works in Bridgewater and I am home with the kids/starting own business/looking for part time work.
Areas of interest for me are southern Somerset and Hunterdon counties (further out of Manhattan commuting range the better), northern Mercer county and Bucks.
Negatives would be:
1. Bucks seems to always be a bit hotter and more humid than Central Jersey in the summer (my humidity tolerance is low)
2. Commute to Bridgewater might be a bit painful. I will need to try out 202 early in the morning to see how it is.
3. I’m not sure the price differential is worth it at the moment. The boondocks of Hunterdon are not as extortionate as NNJ and Bucks has recently had a real price explosion, so I would have to do a careful side by side comparison.
On the other hand – those old stone farmhouses hold a powerful attraction…..
Frank (412)-
Here’s the WSJ article on the biggest of these investors. Note that in the article, he states there are markets too radioactive even for investors of his magnitude and risk tolerance. Detroit may well fit that category.
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20070315-hagerty.html
make (418)-
Perhaps that developer has mistaken you for Borat.
Bru:
Are your friends really living these fabulous lives, or do you just think they are?
I graduated in 1977 with a degree in Sociology and no idea what to do with my life. Like you, I envisioned a fabulous life. My vision was painted by Cosmopolitan Magazine — a sea of elegant men in 3-piece suits taking me to nice places.
I ended up working in retail “management training”. After living home for a year I rented a one-bedroom apartment in Linden for $350/month. I was making 10,000/year, and it was a stretch. I drove a 6-year-old Dodge Dart.
I watched as friends of mine who lived with their parents went out, spent money and had fun; or socked away their money and bought houses in the early 1980’s — and I was just as disillusioned as you are. I made my clothes or bought them at discounters or bought clearance plus my employee discount. When I left retail I worked as a secretary in New York. My starting pay at the first job — a hot $8500/year.
Then I watched those people lose their shirts when the market crashed after 1987. I didn’t meet my husband till 1983, married at age 31, and we didn’t buy a house until we were 40.
And I wouldn’t change a thing.
I know it feels like “everyone else has….” — but that’s not entirely true. And you never know how their stories are going to work out. Granted, it is harder to find one’s way now what with outsourcing and a shrinking job base and college loans and such. But the first step is to stop listening to those messages about “prestige” goods. Buy what you can afford — and no more. If your friends judge you by the labels in your clothes, the initials on your handbag, or the name plate on your car, they are not friends.
edjs-
The mantra of the lousy stock investor is “I made the right call; I just got in too early.”
Same goes for RE. You apear to have made several winning offers…just not at the right time.
Can’t get tomorrow’s price today.
Spent 4th of July with some friends in Toms River. We’re fans of the water by nature (hope to get a boat one day), and we spent a lot of time at a nice house backing Toms River.
It’s probably a $1.2 million place, but trust me when i say the house isn’t a mansion by any stretch. It’s a nice size place, though. If I had to guess … maybe 2500 square feet. We didn’t even tour the whole house. But mostly, they’re paying for the water.
Anyway, it got me thinking … in NJ/PA/LI area, what are the chances of finding a house for 800k or less on a river? I just started to look into PA (putting a cap of 3 hrs MAX from NYC) but PA doesn’t have any great real estate sites like this one.
Obviously this is all a dream, and we’d need to save a lot more … but hey, it’s the summer, which is an ideal time for dreaming.
Does this affects the RE market at all?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/08/business/yourmoney/08fund.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Why the Yield Curve Is Pointing to Cash
But periods of almost-flat yield curves — when short-term cash instruments are paying out nearly as much as long-term bonds, as is the case today — actually represent “the best possible environment to be in cash,” said Peter G. Crane, president of Crane Data, a firm based in Westboro, Mass., that tracks money market mutual funds and other cash investments.
Why? When the Treasury yield curve is inverted, it is typically a sign of an extremely weak economy ahead. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will step in to cut short-term rates to bolster economic activity. And once that occurs, Mr. Crane said, there’s “the risk that short-term rates will fall through the floor,” taking cash yields with them.
lisoosh..yes, that commute from Lower Makefield would be tough unless he could swing three days/two at home. I did it for a while on a project in the late 90’s.
My husband passed on a job up there a few years ago after the second or third interview. It was taking him over an hour to get to the Somv. Cir. We’re just too old (44) for the big commutes unless we really have to do it. An hour is our limit.
I think you’re right about the price explosion around here, but the net tax savings has continued to cover the difference. There’s no comparison.
The humidity is worse here. I don’t have a link on that, though ;)
I’m calling troll on #400
I think I got the ball rolling on my late offer. I told the buyer’s realtor this morning that there is another couple who saw the house that is very interested in putting in an offer. Let’s see if the phantom buyer trick works!
On the water…piece of cake in that range and distance. Have you looked on some of the real estate sites, or is the problem that you don’t know the zips to scan?.
You can get river property for a lot less than that. But you need to be aware of the flood issues with river. You have homes built up at the shore…not a lot of river homes have had “flood remediation” or were raised.
Post if you want examples so you get somewhere to start.
Robert, sweetie, 400 is sarcasm at the harsh and critical advice given on this thread to a “young” 29-year old who spent $27k a year for five years on travel, etc., and now wants to know if she should continue to live with Mom & Dad for the next seven years so she can be near her fantasy lifestyle.
Thanks, Pat. Mostly, it’s the zips. I should have added that the Toms River house had no flood issues simply because there were about 30 stairs to climb down to get where the boats are. But yes, flooding would seem to be the A#1 problem to worry about.
Any help would be much appreciated.
Water Dude,
You can get a house with bulkhead on a canal leading to the Great South Bay for well under 800K here in Babylon.
Lostinny,
I experienced and remember the last realestate bust. Without the internet it was difficult to gauge what was going on, easy to see in hindsight. We stretched to buy a home “because everyone was doing it” and making money of course. We did not. We walked away after many years of choking on a mortgage- the mortgage was not so bad, but it was a money pit. After closing we realized ( because of the HUD) the people before were there 2 years and made about 25%. After living there about a year we realized there was no way some one was going to pay us 25% more than we paid, after 2 years we realized ( w/o help of the internet) that homes bigger and better were selling for the same or a little less. And that continued for years. We walked away after 9 years ( very stupid-should walked much earlier ) the bank sold 2 years later ( 11 years total) for less than we paid. Now those people of course sold in 3 years for a fortune. It s@cks. It happens.
Now that I have acess to records, and am living back in my home town, where it is easy for me to compare sales by neighborhoods, this is what I see here. A friend who bought in 1989- house listed for $150,000 think the got great deal at $135,000 -fast forward to 1997 -another friend buys same house same neighborhood for…. $125,000. That is slow and painfull. I would say we are in 1989-1990 time frame. I don’t think a fast unwinding is possible. What would be the big deal paying $125,000 1990? If you were the people who paid $135,000 you would justify by saying well.. my whatever is better and my whatever else is better.
The big deal was it was nine years later!
KL
Pat – no such luck on the hours. Hubby has to be on site and works 6 days a week. His current commute is 12 minutes!
An hour to the Som Cir. sounds like a drag.
Taxes are a good point, but the commute is a deal breaker, unless it is the house of my dreams at bargain basement prices in which case a job change might be in order.
And Oh The Humidity.
A lot depends on the business I am working on. It is location independant, so if it goes well, I would seriously consider moving out of the area. Either further up the coast – Rhode Island maybe, or even the West Coast or western desert states.
make money Says:
July 8th, 2007 at 11:20 am
I love being ALBANIAN.
make: are you serious? I was just with the Albanian blood line yesterday. My aunt passed away on Friday, and my uncle kind of “quick pitched” everyone by having a wake and ceremony yesterday. So it was my father, three blood relation uncles and my son. My father was the only one that had kids, and I am the only one to have a biological son, so I am being given the royal treatment. Also, four doting wives [including mom] for Hunter. He’s is only 8 months, but he was working the room.
Don’t mess with the Albanians. A lot of WWII talk about Tirana, Duress, and also Rijeka, Ygo / Fiume, Italy [changes depending on the date]. Stories of churches being bombed, allied bureaucracy, carpet bombing, Vienna….whew….I have a lot of reading to do about mid-1900’s European History.
lisoosh #423
Don’t understand your question.
Clotpoll #429
In your opinion, what would be a “reality based” offer for either of the two condo’s still for sale?
edjs
KL
Thank you for sharing your story. I’m sure it wasn’t easy to tell here.
edjs (442)-
Dunno. You know way more about them than I do. Check the most-recent comps, and slice off a little (note I did not say slice off a LOT), if all other features and the condition are similar.
The only thing I can say with certainty is that you should be able to at least buy right now at the comp level…perhaps even a bit less. Prices will continue to decline, but you still can’t get tomorrow’s price today.
Does anyone know anything about River Vale, NJ? There seems to be better priced homes in this town. Any info would help.
Doesn’t the Jersey shore have affordable water front property? That is, of course, if you don’t mind living with drunk high school and college students all summer long.
edjs,
It sounds like you are trying to buy a condo for tomorrow’s prices today. A $600k offer on a $800k condo? You have got to be kidding me! How do you even have the guts to make an offer that low? If you want to buy a condo for $600k, then you should be looking at places priced under $700k. You are in the wrong price range my friend.
Are there people out there willing to pay $800,000 for a condo outside of Manhatten? Good lord, these builders and sellers must be laughing their @sses off.
“Are there people out there willing to pay $800,000 for a condo outside of Manhatten?”
Um, yes! Gold Coast condos are selling for as high as $4.4 million at the W Hotel in Hoboken.
Perhaps someone can offer their opinion of what is going on with a house I looked at about 6 months ago. It had been on the market a while (7-8 months) and had reduced from mid-800s to 749. It went into AR a day or so after I saw it, and ultimately sold for asking at the end of this June.
Well, what do ya know, it popped back on the market a few days after it sold, but for 799. Not much of a profit if they are flipping it, taking realtor fees into account. The new pictures indicate that it is vacant and nothing has been done to it whatsoever (carpeting over HW still there, etc). Don’t you think flippers would try for more? And if they are not flippers, what do you think happened? One would think they would just back out of a contract if they couldn’t afford the payments- not close. Anyway, the whole thing seems odd.
Maybe something happened after closing that forced them to sell the house.
I would agree with #439…I got CRUSHED with my condo but SFH seemed to fall maybe 10% and then stay static for 8-10 years. Me.. bought condo for $132,000 in 1987, sold in 1997 for $92,000, then I saw them going for $250,000 in 2005/2006
#426,
Thanks for the link, we are trying to do the same thing, but it’s very time consuming and not very profitable when you have thousands of others to look after.
On the water?
http://tinyurl.com/ys58qm
That one, I’d see if it sets down low. I think it does.
What happened to the Albanian and two hot blonds?
Spent the afternoon over in Bucks.
jb
On the water?
http://tinyurl.com/2x8yc3
Did anyone see the Barons article….
Barron expects a longer, wider housing slump.
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/40400?source=feed
Robert Troll Says:
July 8th, 2007 at 8:16 pm
Maybe something happened after closing that forced them to sell the house.
Duck – F— you!
frank 458,
Interesting article. From the article:
Historically, real rates and home sales are tied in, so prices should fall 10-15% according to Barron’s’ calculations. If home prices are static, then sales could fall another 20%-25% — down 40% from 2005.
Hope you had good air conditioning, J.B.
I spent the afternoon watching my daughter pretend she could swim at the pool so the lifeguards would let her go down the twister slide…40 times.
What’s wrong chicago? Feeling upside down today?
Or maybe chicago is feeling bitter today because his rent was just increased? Oh well. Nobody ever said that Hoboken was cheap. Be nice or else I will tell Bobby to raise your rent even more!
Anybody going to watch Bought & Sold tonight? I do not like those 2 women realtors (the blonde and balck haired ones) because all they know how to do is lower the price. They might as well just give the house away for free. I like the guy agent who used to work for Macy’s better. His properties sell for more money.
That show must be all made up “semi-real reality”, and they get their plots from this blog.
“That show must be all made up “semi-real reality”, and they get their plots from this blog.”
HUH?
Outstanding work, Pat. Thanks for those. I’m shocked at the low prices, and even more surprised at the proximity to the city.
The second one’s across the street from the water, which is nice, and i will call tomorrow about the first one to see if it’s on the water. Also saw a comp on the second one … house down the street just sold for $432k … so beating the owner down from 509k shouldn’t be all that difficult.
Thanks again.
“Albanians have a Jolly Roger air. You could give an eye patch and a head hankie to most of the people on the street and cast them Captain Blood. Not to demean an entire ethnic group or anything, but like most americans, the only albanians I’d ever heard of were Mother Teresa and John Belushi. An entire country of Mother Teresas would be weird enough – every one looking for lepers to wash. But imagine a John Belushi nation – except they’re not fat and not funny.”
– P.J.O’Rourke
On the water… the first one’s been on the market a long time. I think I remember seeing that loft description last year. Might have stubborn sellers ..see personality reference type Donald Troll.
Donald Troll, you had to be here last summer on the Macy’s thang.
#452 SFH’s fell 20 to 25% in many prestigious Bergen county towns.