From CNN/Money:
Pending home sales at record low
The meltdown in the mortgage market in August dried up the supply of buyers for homeowners looking to sell their homes, as an industry group report showed the lowest level of homes under contract on record.
The National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index fell to a record low of 85.5 from an upwardly revised 91.4 reading in July. That broke the previous low of 89.8 in September 2001, the period in which the terrorist attack shook buyer confidence. The trade group started the index in 2001.
This time the hit to home sales came from buyers having trouble finding the financing they needed to buy homes, coupled with the reluctance of some buyers to jump into the battered market.
“Fewer contracts were being written because of mortgage availability issues, and a separate internal survey of our members shows more than 10 percent of sales contracts fell through at the last moment in August, primarily the result of canceled loan commitments,” said a statement from Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the group. “The volume of activity we’re seeing today is below sustainable market fundamentals because some creditworthy people are trying to buy homes but can’t because of the credit crunch.”
The drop was worse than expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com, who had forecast only a 2 percent decline from the previous reading to 88.1. The index fell 21.5 percent from year-earlier levels, the biggest 12-month drop ever recorded, as the one-month decline of 6.5 percent was third biggest drop on record, trailing only July of this year and the September 2001 period.
From Reuters:
Pending home sales fell 6.5 pct in August
Pending sales of previously owned homes fell by a larger-than-expected 6.5 percent in August as more borrowers seeking home loans were turned away by cautious lenders, a real estate trade group said on Tuesday.
The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in August, fell to a reading of 85.5, the lowest since records began in January 2001. The previous low was 89.8 in September 2001.
The fall was sharper than the 2.1 percent decline in the index economists were expecting for August and comes after existing home sales for the month dipped to their lowest level in five years.
Notably, more than 10 percent of sales contracts fell through late in the process largely due to borrower trouble securing credit, according to an NAR survey.
From Bloomberg:
Pending Sales of U.S. Homes Fell More Than Forecast
The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes fell more than forecast in August, another sign the housing recession will persist.
…
“The existing homes market is now in freefall,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd., in Valhalla, New York. “The downside from here is still substantial.”A Bloomberg survey of 30 economists forecast the index would decline 2.1 percent. Projections ranged from a decline of 4.7 percent to a gain of 3.4 percent.
Compared with a year earlier, pending home sales were down 22 percent.
Pending Home Sales Data can be found at the NAR website:
PHS data due out at 10am eastern.
Whatever the data is, it will be good news. Havn’t you heard? An analyst from Citi has called off the whole housing correction, good times are waiting for us all right around the next corner.
From the Star Ledger:
‘Red flags’ seen in NJ Affordable case
In loan files at First United Mortgage, there were documents showing rental leases signed by people who didn’t actually own the property until days later. Other documents on file related to NJ Affordable Homes properties claim buyers had been employed for many years at a business that was formed less than a year earlier.
Those and other discrepancies should have led First United and its president to suspect something was fishy about its transactions with NJ Affordable, a lawsuit filed in bankruptcy court against the Cranford mortgage company and Joseph Natale alleges.
…
“The volume, persistence and variety of red flags in the First United loan files inexorably lead to the conclusion that (First United and Natale) either consciously ignored repeated signs of fraud and other improper conduct in the loan application process for the mortgages in issue in this complaint, or that they were active participants therein,” said the lawsuit by Charles Forman, the bankruptcy trustee overseeing the liquidation of NJ Affordable.
Regulators and bankruptcy attorneys have labeled NJ Affordable a massive fraud, alleging owner Wayne Puff and others took in more than $120 million from investors. Since last year, four employees and two real estate appraisers have pleaded guilty to participating in a scheme that included inflated appraisals and fraudulent loan documents.
NJ Affordable offered big returns to investors who allowed the company to use their credit and name to purchase properties. Even though properties were titled in those investors’ names, the business agreed to pay all mortgage and other costs.
H.R. 3648
http://waysandmeans.house.gov/news.asp?formmode=release&id=564
IMO, this proposal adds to the incentive to “hand over the keys” (flippers mostly).
Funny, Mr. Rangel says “through no fault of their own”, but I see no such language in the actual bill. Just in case you needed another reason to hate the Democrats…
Don’t think it necessarily bails out flippers, as taxpayers will need to have owned and lived at the property (though not necessarily concurrently) for 2 out of the 5 preceding years.
Say goodbye to Commerce Bank
TD Bank to buy Commerce Bancorp in $8.5-bln deal
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWEN142420071002
So scorecard:
The wealthy hedge fund types have a friend in the Fed
The ignorant and poor have a friend in Congress
The typical middle class schmo has a friend in KY Jelly
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/01/real_estate/manhattan_prices/index.htm?postversion=2007100208
NYC Housing still headed up and inventory is still headed down!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinion/ssi/images/Toles/c_09232007_520.gif?ref=patrick.net
Remember 2/08 is the next big month for ARM resets and it is also have you find out new RE taxes on houses and how high they have been jacked. Also might have gotten another 50BP by then. I don’t understand why people are looking for houses right now on these beautiful sunny days. Wait till a snowstorm in Feb with an person with and exploding ARM to even test the waters.
10:00 – Pending Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors index of pending home sales measures sales activity by looking at signed real estate contracts for existing residences. The index is viewed as a leading gauge of existing home sales.
Economy watchers will be anxious to see the August results after a 12.2% plunge in July. In August, existing home sales fell to an annual pace of 5.5 million, a 4.3% fall from July. The pending home sales index has also fallen more in the past year than sales. Economists expect further drops in sales during the remainder of this year.
7 X-
That’s just great. I really liked Commerce. That was until my direct deposit didn’t go through on time. I guess it’s a sign of things to come.
Can anyone recommend a bank?
#9: Nice article. NYC inventory at a 2 year LOW, and the average (mean) price way UP. And this during a major housing “crisis”. Have to love the resiliency of NYC…
Sure netbank!! Most improved banks for customer service in 2007 were Sovereign and Chase if that is your thing, for on-line high rates on the net try HSBC or ING.
If lots and lots of ATMs are your thing it is citi, chase and BOA all waive a lot of fees if you have direct deposit.
Shares of home builders also rallied after Citigroup upgraded its ratings on five companies in the sector. Shares of D.R. Horton (DHI.N: Quote, Profile , Research) gained 5.1 percent to $13.46, Lennar Corp (LEN.N: Quote, Profile , Research) rose 2.7 percent to $23.27, Pulte Homes (PHM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) climbed 8.7 percent to $14.79, Ryland Group (RYL.N: Quote, Profile , Research) added 5.3 percent to $22.56 and Centex (CTX.N: Quote, Profile , Research) advanced 5.1 percent to $27.92.
I can understand keeping a low balance checking account at Commerce simply because of the added convenience they offer. However, if you are using them as your primary bank, realize that you are paying dearly for that convenience.
Lostinny,
USAA has better than average rates, super website, and the customer service is the best I have experienced in any industry.
But you need to have a US military background to join.
Dang. I’m a commerce guy, too. Love how it’s open on the weekend, and the website is easy to navigate. This sucks.
Anyone know where i can ca find a good listing of homes for rent in the mendham/ long valley/ califon area??? Craigslist is not very helpful
#16 Pre,
I second USAA, they have been the best banking/insurance provider i have ever dealt with!
Oh, and who pays the fee if you a realtor to find a rental, the renter or the owner?
#20 I just rented in NJ in January and all the listings I saw said the renter pays fee. I found mine on GSMLS.
Imus Says:
” Nice article. NYC inventory at a 2 year LOW, and the average (mean) price way UP. And this during a major housing “crisis”. Have to love the resiliency of NYC…”
Don’t you know that just before a tsunami hits, the ocean is sucked AWAY from the shore?
HSBC blows, and they quietly lowered their online savings rates again to 4.64. I have Sovereign, and they are ok. Hudson City usually gets very good ratings for not packaging off their mortgages (ie: they have community roots), so I’d look at them first if you’re in the area.
To overcome private-market caution, the Fed may need to put on a bold face marked by even more decisive cuts in short-term rates. To prevent a housing-market slump from metastasizing into a cancerous, self-feeding tumor, Treasury Secretary Paulson will have to coordinate policies that lend a helping hand to homeowners in distress.
I love quoting Bill Gross rants!
PS: In good times or bad, you should have accounts held at two different physical banks (minimum), and I think the same for online banks w/links. And of course, never go beyond FDIC limits–openning up Trust In Funds accounts, etc., to get beyond the obvious 100k per person restriction if needed.
#22: Good point. I am going to hide under my bed with my life jacket.
Sarcasm aside, what numbers are you using to predict this “tsunami”? Do you have any that refute the statistics cited in the article?
If you want to know the correct way to handle the current economic mess then google or hit wikipedia for how fed chairman paul Volcker handled the 70’s/80’s stagflation
People who expect a repeat of late 1970s and early 1980s should buy real estate. Unlike financial assets such as stocks and bonds, real estate assets enjoy inflationary times.
From MarketWatch:
Pending home sales fall 6.5% in August
Flattened by the mortgage crunch, a forward-looking gauge of home sales fell further in August to its lowest level in more than six years, a real estate trade group said Tuesday.
The pending home sales index fell 6.5% in August after dropping a revised 10.7% in July, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index is at its lowest level since its inception in 2001.
Pending home sales are down 21.5% compared with a year ago and is down 22% compared with six months ago.
The few economists who forecast the index were looking for a drop of about 2.1% in August.
So I wonder who predicted a rise of 3.4%?
Anyone else use Emigrant Direct? Site seems easy to navigate, similar to ING.
I hate to say it but I see recession as almost inevitable. Even if they were to drop interest rates the tax increases will erase anything they can do at this point.
Just like the DOT com bubble burst the real estate market needs to complete its correction. It wont happen as fast but its certainly started.
I would hope things will move back upward in 2011 but I can certainly say that it wont reflect what you see today.
“So I wonder who predicted a rise of 3.4%?”
BI perhaps? ;)
Pending sales fell in all four regions. Pending sales fell 9.5% in the South, 8.3% in the Northeast, 2.9% in the Midwest and 2.7% in the West
#28 Pre
I think that we are in a much more precarious position then in the late 70’s and 80’s. Housing is massively inflated in the US EU and UK. The US economic pitfall is being initiated by the housing fiasco and will spread through the economy. However my personal guess is that we will see the dominos continue to fall and will hit both europe and the UK. I have no idea how hard they may get hit, i suspect that they will fare better then us because they do not carry the level of debt we have and they do not have a currency that is in danger of potentially massive devaluation.
This time around my bet would be on commodities and foreign markets being the safer place during the period of correction that the US economy is entering
Regarding banking, I’ve been very happy with Commerce and I only got socked with a fee once when I let my balance slip below $100. I have a feeling whatever entity they become will jack up the minimum balance requirements, so I’ll be sure to keep a close eye on it. I’ve parked my down payment savings into ING and I recently opened up an ING checking account, so Commerce will become a holding tank for me and as a source of cash from ATMs (I can walk to a branch). I’ve been very happy with ING and the only caveat is that sometimes it takes a few business days for transfers to go through.
i would imagine august is the low point due to the bottom of the credit crunch. things should start looking up going forward as credit has loosened and rates have come down.
#28 The same way the internet made everyone able to buy and sell stocks during the .com days causing spikes in stocks by consumers who knew nothing about a company bottom line or income sheet to determine what is a good stock or bad one. People bought based upon what they thought was a good buy because they heard or maybe even tried a company product. Heck I would say most just had a website and nothing else. Too many people running around saying you have to buy stocks online and you get rich quick. You cant go wrong then boom. This caused a huge skew in reality and the dot com bubble burst shortly after when the market corrected itself based upon reality of a companies worth.
The same in Real Estate has been occuring people buying left and right and the mortgage companies letting anyone do it even the ones that cant afford to and everyone thinking they can get rich quick and you cant go wrong in real estate and everyone rushes into it because everyone else is making money and thier neighbor sold their house for so much more money so we have to sell and then it happens a huge skew as consumers throw the numbers off the chart then it all fails and goes back to reality.
MOST People are stupid sheep in general looking for the get rich quick.
Reality is those who get rich quick do it by accident. Those who get rich over time do it by education.
Well said Mitchell.
#36 August is the low point? LOL. You must be a realtor.
FACT: Real Estate agents dont come with degrees in finance and economics! Its what a 3 month training course that anyone can become a real estate agent? Why do people take advise from these people?
Im an optimist but even I can see that isnt going to happen. Now till X-mas things are going to get worse as more of the loans reset. Even if mortgage rates are reduced it wont help because interest only loans are going to default.
Higher gas prices and increasing taxes are going to kill the state. Why not increase tolls and insurance while your at it. NJ state is going to drop. You cant predict a comeback when outside financial sources continue to escalate.
lostinny (#12): I have been with Hudson City for over 10 years and I’m about as happy with them as I’m going to be with any bank. They don’t have enough branches or ATMs, but their locations are adequate for me. I have a small savings account with them for liquidity and I do checking with them because their low minimum balance is based on AVERAGE balance, not the lowest balance you have in the month.
I switched to them a long time ago from NatWest when the latter, after I started withdrawing money to buy our house, decided that in order for me to deposit a federal tax refund check, my DH had to show up with me in person with an ID as the co-signer. I called Hudson City, told them what I had, asked if they’d accept it, and I went right over and opened the account.
Last year I got a NJ tax refund with my name misspelled — badly — and they took that check too. Nice people, not automatons.
Kettle1,
Do you think home prices are inflated in West Virginia and Germany, or do you believe home prices are too high only in certain markets?
I agree that home prices seem higher than they should be in some places. But a lot of this can be explained by local economic conditions leading to higher incomes.
Witness Ireland, where home prices increased 176% during the past 10 years. That is the largest increase in Europe and 3x the increase in the US.
Why did prices in Ireland rise so fast? Because in half a generation the country progressed from being like West Virginia to the current situation which is closer to Connecticut. Prices went up a lot because Irish economic conditions improved and Irish people became very rich very fast. During the same period, prices fell in stagnant Germany.
A similar thing happened in this country. Home prices went up a lot in New York metro mainly because the local economy was strong and homebuyers had more and more $ to spend. Meanwhile, prices barely moved in the Detroit metro.
Were interest rates lower in New York than Detroit? Nope.
Did crazy mortgages happen in New York but not Detroit? Nope.
Are Detroit real estate and mortgage brokers more honest than their New York counterparts? Nope.
Do TV stations like HGTV exist in New York but not Detroit? Nope.
“39. stuw6 Says: October 2nd, 2007 at 10:50 am
Well said Mitchell.”
Agree
Particularly the last sentence.
I will predict March-May 2008 timeframe will have the most forclosures and houses going on the market ever!
As for the Debt Relief Bill it will be abused by the people who dont need it and not approved for the people who do. Look at the Katrina abuse. It seems there are more crooks out to exploit the government freeebies than the legitimate people. Im betting millions go to houses that dont even exist. I hope they come up with an insane jail sentence before they give out a penny to those who abuse it.
njpatient & stuw6. Thanks.
Must have been the coffee talking this morning.
I brew my own in my $9.99 one cup coffee maker to save the dollar and time standing in line at the local coffee shop only to be greeted by some kid who thinks he deserves a tip for pouring a cup and having me add my own ingridients.
Essex, from last night:
“Sure–die now–more cheesesteak for me…Oh, and I poached one of Philly’s finest babes….married her…though I am still not sure ‘what’ she saw in me…..you could call me a PhillyPhile Fo Life.”
I grew up in NYC, and folks always talked down Philly as the world’s worst armpit. I wound up living there when I was in law school, and found I loved it. It’s a great town, and the more people crap on it now, the happier I am that they won’t be going there to ruin it.
# 42 Pre
You have a legit point with regard to west virginia. i.e that not all areas of the country have seen massive overvaluation. I was speaking generally. Discussing the entire US is a project for a research paper not blog post. But i stand by my previous statement that the over all housing market in the US has become inflated to a dangerous point. It is not required that the entire country be over inflated for the entire country to feel the pain. Consider that parts of the midwest are being slammed by foreclosure and they did not have any where near as drastic a run up as the north east or west coast.
I do not have a deatiled knowledge of the current EU and UK situation but i have recently been paying more attention and reading uo their situation. From what i have been able to find. The EU may be in a similar situation to the US. That is that there are many areas that have been inflated for various reasons and if/when they take a hit it will most likely hot the enitre market not just the inflated areas. Once again i could be wrong or be missing soem important data, however i feel comfortable with this general concept given that i have been reading news articles from the EU/UK discussing the very issue and how they may be approaching trouble. For example i linked a UK article about how Funny Money Loans are becoming popular in the UK; they seem to be just one step behind us.
The EU/UK market also has their on version of immigration issues/ culture clash with the large influx of muslim populations ( i am not characterizing this one way or another just an observation)and the flight of the younger native population that is developing especially in the UK.
Interesting stuff!
Does anyone have any info on
listing #2419337 from GSMLS
Its located in mendham somewhere?
Thanks
Attention Clotpoll and ChiFi:
Come to the dark side!!!
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2007/10/02/2007-10-02_heres_one_fan_ready_to_just_shea_goodbye.html
#31
EmigrantDirect isn’t bad, but the rates aren’t great. You should check out Eloan’s online accounts (FDIC via BancoPopular) for pretty good rates and fast transfers. Places like HSBC make your money disappear anywhere from 3 days to a full week before crediting your account and starting interest. (You have to time it by only making transfers on Monday or Tuesday to get the fastest service.) It’s a total sham. They use a thrid party company for the holding period and say they don’t profit from it. But that thrid party company also happens to supply HSBC with their backend programming (you can see the logo on their site for “powered by”). Quid pro quo at its worst.
#48
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Donnie Baseball (49)-
A true baseball fan doesn’t change allegiances.
That just sucks.
Morgan Stanley to lay off 500 U.S. workers in mortgage unit
Thats right, the Mets fans are losers and will always be losers you have to admire that.
I have been to tons of mets games and that part about choking you gotta love, if it wasn’t for the ball rolling through the legs of the opponenet in 1986 the mets would be coming up on 40 years without a WS ring.
njrebear
I thought someone earlier stated that there would be no lay offs on Wall St.
And guess what, bonuses will suck this year too !
“Fewer contracts were being written because of mortgage availability issues, and a separate internal survey of our members shows more than 10 percent of sales contracts fell through at the last moment in August, primarily the result of canceled loan commitments,” said a statement from Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the group.
Just a couple of months ago it was because of the “bad” media.
What’s it going to be in the next few months? The large amount of foreclosures adding to inventory?
42#, great post! the examples can go on and on and on…
if i read market correctly, it clearly says the worst housing recession is behind us.
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart4:symbol=srs;range=5d;compare=xhb;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/columnists/chi-mary_re_09-30sep30,0,40543.column
This is so 1992, deals are falling apart because the SELLERS can’t come up with enough cash to close. Back in the 1992 NYC coop meltdown I recall plenty a seller who couldn’t come up with the cash to sell. Now it is back again.
Mr. Potter,
I think I am the guy. I have written a couple of times that massive Wall Street layoffs are unlikely. Of course I understand that some layoffs will be targeted at groups having to do with mortgages.
One thing about recent Wall Street layoffs that a lot of people are ignoring – many and perhaps most of the jobs that are going are not in New York. Most of the people Bear Stearns and Bank of America fired are based in Orange County, Cal.
#59 John,
Agree, replay of 1987-1992
pre,
Just mortgages? Are you talking about origination or securitization?
What about structured finance? There were plenty of folks involved in MBS/CMO/CDO and ABS based on mortgage and subprime debt. What about the folks involved in structuring SIV and SIV-lite deals, again, based on mortgage and subprime debt? What about the hedgies and other groups involved in trading risk derivatives? Ratings agencies? Back office? Mortgage insurers?
BI:
Yup…The homebuilder collapse is behind us!
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart8:symbol=xhb;range=2y;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined
You also said this a few weeks ago when XHB was at 24 and change. You should go out and buy this weeks Barron’s. There is an excellent piece on the homebuilders. Essentially it says that they are mostly running out of dough and some will go bankrupt.
Also. SRS is double short and includes all things RE, not just homebuilders. You can’t compare these 2 ETFs unless you are happy with comparing fruits to only bananas.
Grim,
Yes I mean all those fancy things. I didn’t feel like writing them. Obviously Wall Street firms don’t originate residential mortgages, they manipulate them into various acronyms.
The layoffs will resemble 1998, not 2001 (see chart on page 6 of the link). One reason is things really aren’t that bad for the Wall Street firms. Another reason is these companies didn’t binge on hiring during the last 5 years, compared to the late 1990s.
By the way, what is a SIV?
http://www.sifma.org/research/statistics/other/NYMonthly.pdf
Structured Investment Vehicle maybe?
aka…..reason for Wall Street to charge you $$ for something it made up on the fly.
Earlier reports were putting the total at $6-8 billion. Now we hear $11.25 billion. Where will the money come from?
From the AP:
As Corzine feels pain, report says N.J. bridges need $11B in work
New Jersey must spend $11.25 billion in the next 10 years to fix deficient and obsolete bridges, according to a new report that raises more questions about how the state will find money to fix its crumbling infrastructure.
The report by Transportation Commissioner Kris Kolluri found all Garden State bridges are safe, but determined the state needs to significantly increase what it spends each year to fix its bridges. Gov. Jon S. Corzine requested the report after a Minnesota bridge collapse earlier this year.
The state spends $509 million per year, but Kolluri recommended a 34 percent increase, noting “years of misdirected priorities have left us with a system that requires tremendous capital investment.”
Don Mattingly Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 11:23 am
Attention Clotpoll and ChiFi:
Come to the dark side!!!
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2007/10/02/2007-10-02_heres_one_fan_ready_to_just_shea_goodbye.html
23: I know this article is joking. However, anyone who was inconsolibly bent out of shape about what happened in September wasn’t paying attention to the rest of the season. The Mets ultimately rose to their true value level; they did not have something taken away from them.
It says more that the Phils and Braves didn’t move past them earlier.
John Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 12:19 pm
Thats right, the Mets fans are losers and will always be losers you have to admire that. I have been to tons of mets games and that part about choking you gotta love, if it wasn’t for the ball rolling through the legs of the opponenet in 1986 the mets would be coming up on 40 years without a WS ring.
All: so you need to explain why non-Yankees fans scream “Yankees Suck”?
By the way dimwit, get your facts straight. When the ball went through Buckner’s legs the game was already tied.
42 pret and 57 bi the cheerleader:
Isn’t your argument actually supporting the argument of a national bubble? Prices in areas like Detroit were artifically supported instead of dropping as they should have (to the same extent prices increased artifically in hot markets.)
When you think about it, dead zones should have had horrendous price declines.
Therefore, bubble.
“Were interest rates lower in New York than Detroit? Nope.
Did crazy mortgages happen in New York but not Detroit? Nope.
Are Detroit real estate and mortgage brokers more honest than their New York counterparts? Nope.
Do TV stations like HGTV exist in New York but not Detroit? Nope.”
Grim #67
I just looked at the nJ budget and you can easily pay for the bridges if you take the money away from property tax relief and put it towards infrastructure. The budget has 2 billion dollars alloted for property tax relief.
The good side is that maybe people will actually hold their local towns responsable for ridiculous proerty taxes when the so called tax relief checks dont show up ( yes i know this will never happen)
Also, really now how actually considers that check tax relief when that money is coming directly out of the taxes you payed. So the state takes you money then gives some back and says that they are doing you a favor!!!
CF..I also thoroughly enjoyed my season of Mets baseball. With great anticipation, hubby is again watching the packages to Port St. Lucie.
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/nym/fan_forum/fantasycamp.jsp
The Mets have done it.
The team I have rooted for my whole life has accomplished the impossible: The Mets have played so badly and collapsed so totally that they’ve broken my heart, made me angry as hell and gotten me to root for another so-called team.
I am through with the Mets. I hereby officially and publicly renounce my allegiance from these bumbling ballplayers.
I hope the Mets lose every game they ever play. I hope they never steal another base, hit another home run, catch another pop fly or sell another ticket.
If they had any self-respect, the owners would disband the team tomorrow.
Of course, they won’t disband and they will win games, but they will do it without my cheers. I am no longer a fan. The shame is no longer mine to bear.
My friends say, Oh, come on, you’re just angry that they totally collapsed in the last 17 days of the season. There’s next year and they’ll get better. You’ll cool off. You can’t just leave a team you’ve rooted for your entire life. It’s against the Unwritten Code of Baseball.
Well, my friends are wrong. This has been coming a long time and I’ve had it. How many fans really believe next year will be any different? Life is too short to keep deluding yourself, to keep suffering.
It didn’t start out this way. I remember the Miracle of ’69. I could not imagine that virtually every year after that would be a different version of the same torture.
Sure, they had their moments in 1973 and of course there was 1986, but those are just tiny islands in the Mets’ sea of misery.
Luckily, baseball happiness is only a subway ride away.
Yes, that’s right, I have decided to become a Yankee fan.
They have character and class, not to mention 26 championships! They have Jeter and Cano, Mariano and Clemens. These are real ballplayers. Before them came O’Neill and Bernie. Say what you want about George, he wins, and I want to be with the winners for a change.
I can’t do it alone. I am urging every one of the 3.7 million people who wasted their money on a Mets ticket this year and the millions more who turned off their sets halfway through another debacle in the last couple of weeks to abandon them forever.
Come with me to the sporting goods shop, where we will cover ourselves in pinstripes and never look back.
It will be painful. I’ve hated the Yankees a long time, even as I have envied them. Divorce is never easy. I expect to suffer some withdrawal. In a moment of weakness, I may even be caught clapping as a Met gets a rare two-out RBI.
Yet this will not change the fundamental fact that I am finally free. I’m abandoning the Queens losers for the Bronx winners.
Goodbye, Mets.
Go, Yankees!
Spot on Kettle1.
Corzine raised our sales tax 1% to fund the property tax rebate. Talk about utter silliness.
I paid $14,000 in property taxes this year and it increased on average 13% a year for the past 4 years. Want to know what my rebate check was for? $556!
The problem with letting a financial guru run your state is that unlike other crooked elected officials, he can actually convince you that the crap he is doing is good for you.
Well he can convince most ;)
stuw6,
The sales tax was raised 16%.
The following link opens a PDF of the state budget. I suggest you take a look at page 52 (labeled B-51)
http://tinyurl.com/3yvag4
StateAid and property tax relief =$15,130 (in millions) , so 15.13 BILLION
SO is there really any question as to where some of the budget problem might lie. (Yes we id recognize that NJ has become france in yesterdays discussion) :(
Gary…I don’t get it. I thought the sales tax was increased from 6 to 7% on all (luxury) goods and services sold in NJ?
grim (67)-
“Earlier reports were putting the total [for infrastructure repair] at $6-8 billion. Now we hear $11.25 billion. Where will the money come from?”
Don’t know from where the money will come…but I do know which of our orifices it will be pulled from.
From NJ.com:
NJ’s troubled school construction program back in court
The state Supreme Court is again being asked to demand a jump-start to New Jersey’s troubled school construction program.
Lawyers for the New Jersey’s urban schoolchildren today filed a motion with the court to order the Corzine administration and the legislature to provide needed funding for the vast building program by Dec. 31. The court-mandated program has been stalled for lack of money, with more than 100 school projects left in various stages of design and development.
“We file with the court today as a last resort, out of frustration with the continuing lack of action in Trenton to provide the funding necessary to restart long overdue and urgently needed building projects,” said David Sciarra, the law center’s executive director.
‘The volume of activity we’re seeing today is below sustainable market fundamentals because some creditworthy people are trying to buy homes but can’t because of the credit crunch.’
— Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors
The good side is that maybe people will actually hold their local towns responsable for ridiculous proerty taxes
The problem is that local towns often don’t have the control you think they do. For example,
Sate aid to towns is often frozen or cut back
The state bills towns for pension obligations.
If towns try & push back on police salaries, it goes to state arbitration, which favors the unions
If the citizens vote down a school budget, the state can override the vote.
if the so called tax relief checks dont show up ( yes i know this will never happen)
I don’t know. The checks are unsustainable. For them to continue would either mean cutting spending (unlikely) or raising taxes.
Can anyone find the NAR press release where they called the 2005 market unsustainable due to the fact that credit-unworthy people were able to buy homes primarily because of loose credit?
TO ALL, VERNON NJ 4BR 2B 9RMS 372000 REDUCED 260000,3BR 1B FULL BSMT 6RMS 207 TO 195 TO 185 TO 169,3BR 1B 275 TO 245,I THINK ITS STARTING POP!BUBBLE BURSTING!THERE ARE MORE BUT NOY AS DRAMATIC.NOTICED NEW LISTINGS COMING ON MUCH LOWER THAN COMPARABLE HOMES ON FOR 3 TO 6 MONTHES.STILL NOT SURE IF THIS WINTER WIIL BE BOTTOM,RENTING TILL I MAKE MY MOVE.
Meet the Mets
Greet the Mets
They came to the park and beat the Mets
Cover your head
Prepare for the cries
Guaranteed they can’t hit for their lives
Cause the fielders are really dropping the ball
watchin’ those pitchers losin’ it all
reaking reaking
everybody hear the sound?
’cause the New York M-E-T-S Mets are goin’ down
Renting,
What you just pointed out is that the bureaucracy exist only to protect itself. Basically if local towns try to rein in spending then the state and state employees will over ride the local population and force them to spend. Sounds like its time to storm the castle :) But dont worry, the boiling oil will keep you warm in the crisp fall air
Any suggestions for a good source of Northern NJ (morris county) home rental listings. Mrs Kettle wants to find a new place to rent….
$450,000 reduction today. Granted the house is priced very high but still an enormous price cut.
I will stop short of saying panic but reality is beginning to set in.
MLS ID # 20730272
#74 Starting to think I may have a brother I never knew about.
I have been complaining for years how they manage to raise taxes every year and mail you back a small portion called the homestead rebate. So we take $1000.00 more a year and give them back $300 and they look like hero’s and its amazing how many people get excited about the homestead rebates when its only a portion of their own money they gave up over the year. The float on that alone should make the state some serious cash. Its making someone money.
Will ask this question again now that house values are going on the decline doesnt anyone else think the tax assesors that raised taxes on everyone the last couple of years should reduce your taxes now?
Does anyone actually think that Corzine actually cares about the budget? Im sure the request for Billions is to give raises to crooked road builders more than what will actually go back into the roads.
Seriously whenever you hear about tax increases and why do you ever see any progress on the situation? It seems they start then before it completes it comes to a stop and someone has their hand out because they need more money again especially when it comes to the roads.
6 or 11 billion and bridges are made out of sand and water something called concrete but with the prices in NJ you would think they were using gold bars.
“I grew up in NYC, and folks always talked down Philly as the world’s worst armpit. I wound up living there when I was in law school, and found I loved it. It’s a great town, and the more people crap on it now, the happier I am that they won’t be going there to ruin it.”
At least to this transplant, Philly right now looks an awful lot like NYC did back in the late-80s. Here’s hoping Nutter =~ Giuliani.
(and I find Philly gals cuter and not as stuck-up as precious NYCers, but that’s just me)
stuw6,
The increase from 6% to 7% is a 16% jump, not a 1% jump. The media touts it as a 1% increase hoping that the proletariat will not notice. A 1% increase would put the sales tax at 6.06%. Actually, the increase is closer to 16.5%.
This is why when you and I get our property tax rebate, we laugh like hell because nothing…. and I mean nothing in this corrupt State of New Jerkme will change.
#77 Stuw,
1% increase divided by 6% base is a 16.66% increase. (1/6)
Raising the sales tax from 6% to 7% is a 16% increase in the amount of tax collected. So the amount you pay year over year in State sales tax was increased over 16%.
‘The volume of activity we’re seeing today is below sustainable market fundamentals because some creditworthy people are trying to buy homes but can’t because of the credit crunch.’
There is no credit crunch
The fact that people with bad credit can no longer get 107% financing based on fictions “I’ll take your word for it” stated income does not constitute a credit crunch.
People with good credit and a down payment looking for a sum of money that is commensurate with their income level are able to find loans. Yes, jumbo loans are priced higher because they are more risky (i.e. they don’t have the implicit backing of a GSE). That’s how risk pricing works.
This is a return to normal credit conditions. Get used to it.
Are any of the New Jersey tax complainers planning to move to another state so they don’t have to pay New Jersey taxes anymore?
John (re: 54 — and just about everything else you’ve posted)
Thanks again for proving me right when I called you an a-hole a few weeks back.
#93 Pre,
Actually yes, as i posted the other me and the wife are giving it another 1 maybe 2 years and if we dont see positive change we are out!
correction ” as i posted the other day”
Kettle1,
Are you hoping for lower home prices or a better fiscal situation?
If you move, where will you go?
#42 pretorius
The UK and Irish markets are behind in some ways and way ahead in others. They may be behind in Subprime, but only because they are subject to tighter regulations. They are ahead in 40/50yr mortgages and mortgages beyond 3 times income as a standard. First time buyers are no longer able to buy anything without family money. The family have to look to Home Equity lines to provide the down payment for the kids.
While the UK managed to get rid of Gazumping http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazump, it is rampant in Ireland.
When the last bubble burst in the UK back in 1987 they coined a nice phrase “Negative Equity”. I think it describes it better than “underwater”
Both economies are about to hit a big wall at a fast speed. I wonder how long they will be in Intensive Care recovering.
Thanks for the tax explanation guys. So it was a case of semantics.
Funny, when I was in college, the administration touted a particular years tuition increase as the lowest in the past 5 years. Of course the dollar amount increase was NOT the lowest, but that 9% number sounded a lot better than 10 or 11. Of course over the 5 years, tuition increased from $42/credit to $85.
As for moving out of NJ…Certainly when I retire I plan to move to Central America. Last year I was speaking with a local in Costa Rica who said that the property taxes on his beach front 1/2 acre was less than $100/year. And the national language is English ;)
I could only move out of this tax and spend hell-hole if my wife and I could get identical job transfers. Trust me, 2 sisters and a brother of mine have made the move already and the homes they live in in Ohio and Portland Oregon are beautiful and cheap!!!
Unless you have family here and want to live close to them, the only reason to live in North Jersey today is the proximity to New York City’s job, learning, and cultural opportunities. Does anybody disagree?
# 97 pretorius Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:35 pm
Kettle1,
Are you hoping for lower home prices or a better fiscal situation?
If you move, where will you go?
Pre,
kind of a reheash from the other day, but we are looking for “quality of life”. Everyone has their own definition of what “quality of life” they are looking for. Long story short we currently do not see our definition being available to us in NJ. We will give it a year or two and then we will probably be considering NH, NC primarily but possibly VT.
While plenty of people would be perfectly happy raising kids in we are not and it not really a good topic for debate given that everyone has a different set of values, so what makes me happy most likely doe snot make most other people happy .
Stu # 100
The wife and myself have escape plans to belize once the kid/s grow ip, or if the next drepssion hits!
incaseanyonewonderedmytypingsucks
BI: From the Street.Com
Homebuilder stocks continued their rally from Monday, even though new data showed that pending home sales hit their lowest point ever in August.
The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index fell 21.5% to a reading of 85.5 in August from a year earlier. That number was the lowest since NAR created the index in 2001.
The index was down 6.5% from the upwardly revised reading of 91.4 in July. The index, which measures pending contracts of existing homes, is considered a leading indicator of the market.
While the report showed that the housing market remains dismal, homebuilder stocks rose sharply — leading some market watchers to question whether the stocks are simply enjoying a dead-cat bounce.
“I’m totally confused. It doesn’t mean I short them here, I just don’t understand what the excitement is,” says one hedge fund analyst who remains bearish on housing and has shorted the sector at times in recent months.
The analyst says his trader told him people might be betting on a recovery in the builder’s fundamentals within three to four quarters from now. However, given the huge inventory overhang in the sector, the analyst doubts a recovery can come that fast.
Among the biggest risers were homebuilders that have been heavily shorted. Standard Pacific (SPF) rose 9.4% to $6.05, Beazer Homes (BZH) increased 9.4% to $9.19 and Pulte Homes (PHM) jumped 7% to $15.83.
Meanwhile, D.R. Horton (DHI) gained 6.6% to $14.34, Toll Brothers (TOL) rose 6.1% to $21.91, and Lennar (LEN) added 6.2% to $24.72.
On Monday, the group rallied after Citigroup analyst Stephen Kim upgraded several stocks in the sector, saying fundamentals are not likely to recover in the near term, but the stocks themselves have hit a bottom and should benefit from a trading rally in coming months.
“Timing the bottom in a volatile group like the homebuilders is never easy, and catalysts in these dark times will inevitably amount to a mere flicker,” Kim wrote in his note.
“However, we are not to trying to suggest that trends in the homebuilding sector are about to get much better; rather the purpose of this piece is to point out that they have never been worse. And in this sector, with its long history of feverish booms and catastrophic busts, it is precisely when things have gotten this bad that the stocks start looking good,” Kim said.
Family keeps me in New Jersey. The State is going down the tubes in so many ways I don’t have time to list. Yes, being close to NYC has some perks.
#93 I did. I live in NC now just like you probably will in a few years. While I love NJ the state economy is screwed on top of the real estate issue. Double whammy. I wont mention the Mets, Jets, or Giants either. Go Yankees!
#100 Stuw6: Nice view on the tax increase and you are so right on it being a 16% increase. When the media plays it as 1% increase it shows that they arent doing thier homework.
Ohio is moving upwards still and will there are some really nice places there and I think Money listed 4 places in Ohio as areas that they feel will not be affected by the housing bubble collapse and will increase during the bubbles decline and given the prices of property there I would have to agree.
#104 thats ok I am not ready for an elevated level of verbal proficiency.
#106 NC is only an 8 hour drive and with the money you save and with bosses that let you take time off you can visit NJ. But I have been here over 2 years and still have no desire to go visit yet. If Im going to drive 8 hours Im going to Disney.
Is that Jaimie person a girl or a boy it is one of those names that is only good if you are a bi-sexual?
Philly is a great town by the way!!!!
With Home Builders the stocks are cyclical and tend to rise way ahead of the troubles. The only good I can say of them is when we get to Feb or March 2008 and things look the bleakest try to pick one that you think will survive and go very long on one of their high yielding juicy bonds.
If you are too early they may cut dividends on the common and if they go bankrupt you may get some coin on the bond but if you get lucky and lock in 12% for 30 years on 10K piece bond it will be worth it.
Guys,
I have a cousin who asked me this question and I wasn’t sure how to respond.
He’s closin this month and want’s to pay 25 points up front on his mortgage as interest to lower his rate in the 1’s%.
He plans to live there for the rest of his life and things prepaying the interest is better for him as opposed to putting that money towards his downpayment.
He’s a mechanic and he’s wife is a nurse.
They don’t know anything about investing.
Besides the opportunity cost of the money are there any Tax benefits/or issues in paying interest upfront?
Pre #101. Yea. I’d agree…from a financial perspective, since I don’t really “take advantage” of NYC, it’s hard to justify paying an NYC premium to live here. For the amount of time I spend in the city, I could probably just stay with family a few times a year. The decision to stay in NJ would be based more on being near the family.
When we go visit NC can us Yankees sit on the front of the bus? Anything between DC and Palm Beach I am quite happy looking at if from a plane.
Mitchell Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:05 pm
#106 NC is only an 8 hour drive and with the money you save and with bosses that let you take time off you can visit NJ. But I have been here over 2 years and still have no desire to go visit yet. If Im going to drive 8 hours Im going to Disney.
Are any of the New Jersey tax complainers planning to move to another state so they don’t have to pay New Jersey taxes anymore?
Giving it another year.
It’s not just taxes, it’s the whole cost of living “package”. The biggest drivers of which are taxes, housing costs and salary.
As of right now, moving would much lower housing costs, decently lower taxes (several $k on property taxes), but a modest pay cut. Overall moving would be positive.
Realistically, I don’t see taxes going down, but I would at least like to see some indication that taxes can be controlled….although honestly, I don’t expect much. This leaves housing costs as the biggest wild card. If prices aren’t appreciable lower next year, that wil probably seal it for us.
I’m even willing to pay a “friends and family” premium to stay here, but I’m not willing to struggle through live to live in and pay taxes on some POS cape.
make money
Sounds fishy to me. I have never heard of so many points. I do know that there are limits on interest deductions in a given year depending on income , amt of interest etc.
Me personally, I would pay a point or two and put the remaining money in an account that earns some interest and use it to pay down the mortgage at some point.
not an expert here but my 2 cents
John (110)-
Homebuilder bonds? OMFG! You got some sort of inside dope on which companies in this group are gonna go belly-up (and don’t say “none of them”)?
I guess, though, it’s better to be a bondholder than a stockholder when things go South in a hurry. :)
He’s closin this month and want’s to pay 25 points up front on his mortgage as interest to lower his rate in the 1’s%
That’s a lot of points. Paying points can make sense over the long term if you plan to stay put, but despite their current intentions to live there forever… well, excrement happens.
If they are ever have to leave for some reason; job loss, death, sick family member, can’t work, excessive taxes, psyco neighbor…whatever reason, they are going to be out a lot of money. You never know what will happen over 30 years.
RentinginNJ Says:
I’m even willing to pay a “friends and family” premium to stay here, but I’m not willing to struggle through live to live in and pay taxes on some POS cape.
I’m pretty much in the same boat. I make a decent living here but it will all get eaten up as soon as I buy something at current prices. It will be over $3,000/mo to live in some crap 1950’s house that needs everything. If I move, I’ll make almost the same money but live in a much better home and my wife can stay home when our kids are born. If my family & friends weren’t here, I wouldn’t be either. Even if prices drop, I’ll still be making a comprimise on the house we’ll be in to stay here.
make money Says:
He’s closin this month and want’s to pay 25 points up front on his mortgage as interest to lower his rate in the 1’s%.
I’ve never even heard of that. 25 points on a $300,000 loan is $75,000. Why would he want to take on that kind of risk? If he has to unexpectedly move in 5 years, that money will be lost…poof!!!!
I wouldn’t pay more than 2.5 points period.
Mitchell,
The reason that Ohio seems cheap is because the state’s economy is dying.
Look at Columbus, the state’s most successful city. A few days ago Simon Property Group literally donated a downtown Columbus mall it owned to the city. This mall was the built in 1990 and was a great mall until recently. Today it is worth less than the cost to demolish it. In other words, the best land in Ohio’s best city is worth next to nothing.
On the other hand notice what happened to the Bergen Mall, a declining mall that was a dead mall by North Jersey standards. Simon sold that one for $145m.
Why the difference? The value of land and therefore the price of the improvements on top of it is based primarily on the proximity it provides to economic activity. New Jersey is located in the sea of it that extends from Boston to DC. Ohio is located between Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Kentucky.
When you buy real estate in places like Ohio, you negotiate with the seller how much $ each of you will lose.
Pre
There has already been a well documented migration of the 25-35 crowd occurring for the last several years. If this board is any further indication i expect that NJ will continue to loose this segment of the population and that that migration will accelerate as the NJ economy continues to go down the drain.
While the rich and fabulously intelligent will always want to be near NYC the average educated individual will look at what it would cost to have a comfortable middle class lifestyle in NJ and then see that you can achieve the same quality of living else where and they wont be in the state for long after that. Massachusetts already has this problem and the state has has a net negative population growth for several years
Pre
to clarify my thought from my last post….
The 25-35 segemtn wether they realize it or not if often looking at things from a “where and how am i go to raise a family” perspective ( yes 25 is very early for that but its a general range). As i have personally experienced recently having children around can drasticly change your out look. With out children me and the wife would have no problem staying in the tri state area and renting forever while saving / investing a chunk. But a “generally” speaking living in the tr-state area means you work more and have less resources to devote to your family (time/money) relative to other parts of the country
family is also what’s keeping us here but now majority of us are pretty much decided on leaving.
we are considering phoenix, houston, charlotte or raleigh. phoenix is only slightly ahead of staying in nj. what about you guys. it would be interesting to see what everyone’s flight plan is :)
The CNN article has a link to “Gerri’s tips for selling your home” The last one is to avoid gimmicks, like free TVs etc. The other tips were offering home warranties, buying down points, offering to pay the down payment.
Umm, aren’t those all gimmicks to avoid the one tip that apparently would have made her choke, just reducing the actual asking price? Has anyone seen an offer where the seller would pay all or part of the down payment?
My head, it spins.
If I leave the New York metro, I will probably go to Calgary, Alberta.
Like New York, Calgary has entrepreneurial spirit and great job market. Fiscal situation is amazing – province has zero sales tax and zero debt. Unlike New York, Calgary is a family-centered town, too.
Check out the surpluses they have out there. $8.7 billion last year and $7 billion projected this year. And this is for a place with half the population of New Jersey.
http://tinyurl.com/37dp89
#120 Not all areas in OHIO but the article does outline some areas in Ohio that will see increases most probably because people from areas like Columbus may be moving to other parts of OHIO. As of late here in NC we are seeing less OH people moving here. Of course they could be going to Kentucky.
Whoa! We’re up to $13.58 billion now!
NJDOT releases Final Bridge Report
and Capital Investment Analysis
It’s a good time to be a bridge contractor in NJ.
From Bloomberg:
Milken Says Housing Won’t Recover for `Quite a While’
The U.S. housing market is unlikely to recover soon from the worst slump in 16 years, according to Michael Milken, the junk bond billionaire turned philanthropist.
It will be “quite a while before we have a robust housing market again,” Milken, chairman of the Santa Monica, California-based Milken Institute, said in an interview today. “The idea that any loan against real estate is a good loan has never been a rational thought.”
Milken said the “basic assumption” that home prices will continually increase is wrong. Sales of new homes tumbled 8.3 percent in August to the lowest in more than seven years and prices dropped the most since 1970, the Commerce Department in Washington said last week.
The U.S. economy will withstand the slide in housing, propelled by global growth, said Milken, 61, the former high- yield bond chief from Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc.
“Today the strength of the world’s economy is helping America and the United States, and I think that will soften the blow of our downturn in housing,” he said. “We have to realize, similar to the time of Galileo, that the whole world is not necessarily revolving around the United States and the amazing story of America.”
Mitchell,
An article that predicts an imminent rise in Ohio real estate values should be ignored.
That’s some nice discounting going on…..
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/432179372.html
Wonder how much they’ll be reduced this Saturday.
re: 110.
And with a name like John, you’re either a toilet or one who patronizes prostitutes….
I’d wager the former, because I doubt anybody would engage in carnal activities with you, even for money.
Yes, John, please invest in homebuilder bonds. Great plan.
The suburban housing market can only resist the demographic trend for so long.
I’m at least 10-15 yrs younger than everyone on the train to Grand Central everyday.
In the neighborbood where I rent my house, there is no one even close to my age who isn’t living at home with parents (I’m 30).
There is huge difference between what is happening in NYC (where population is growing, esp among young families) and the areas surrounding it.
#46. Finally something NJpatient and I can agree on…..meet you at Gino’s….Philly rules. I’d live there in a heartbeat.
Credit Suisse cutting 170 investment banking jobs
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-suisse-cutting-170-investment/story.aspx?guid=%7B9E34C650%2D356F%2D4458%2D81E3%2D89ED2B1352E4%7D&dist=hplatest
Pret 120…
Don’t let Columbus fool you, having lived a good chunk of my adult life there I can somewhat safely assure you that it’s nowhere near dead.
Yes, the downtown CitiCenter mall was dead-man-walking soon after it opened (poor location) and pretty much a sad joke for the last 5+ years. But the “newer” open-air Easton mall is where everyone shops (created by a little local company called “The Limited”) along with Polaris on the north side.
And go figure, Money magazine just rated Columbus number 8 in “Best big cities”!?!
Granted it’s not for single types wanting a NYC kinda thing but it is a VERY nice place to raise a family.
Note: Wouldn’t recommend Cleveland so much though…Cinci is ok…
I’ll be returning to the states by eoy to a job in north nj. Will rent for a few months and see what the housing market looks like in q1/q2 (Hudson valley most likely). Looking forward to being in nj/ny for a few years and then we’ll see…maybe back to Columbus, or perhaps NC?
125#, is Calgary an oil town? if oil can sustain this level, it is good.
Johnnyboy,
I agree that the new competition killed Columbus City Center. Nearby competition also killed Bergen Mall.
The difference is that Columbus City Center is worth zero. Obviously if somebody placed a higher value on it then Simon would have sold to that person. When you need to give away real estate in the core of a major city, then it is hard to make a case that the city has a bright future.
By the way I have been to Columbus. Compared to its closest peers (by MSA population) Providence and Orlando, Columbus is dead.
make money Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:06 pm
Guys,I have a cousin who asked me this question and I wasn’t sure how to respond.
He’s closin this month and want’s to pay 25 points up front on his mortgage as interest to lower his rate in the 1’s%.
He plans to live there for the rest of his life and things prepaying the interest is better for him as opposed to putting that money towards his downpayment. He’s a mechanic and he’s wife is a nurse. They don’t know anything about investing. Besides the opportunity cost of the money are there any Tax benefits/or issues in paying interest upfront?
albani: without knowing anything, I’ll make a blind bet that he will get caught in the AMT, which basically will disallow most of his tax deduction. Also, when you do something that unorthodox, it makes it almost impossible to properly shop around. As a result, I would think once you go beyond 3 points, you are likely just getting rooked. My $0.02.
Columbus, OH.
I was there just last week. I think its great mid-size city. Few good things,
Very nice Airport. I was thru security and in plane in 20 minutes.
Nice downtown. Had very nice Italian food in downtown.
I wouldn’t mind moving there after I retire though. Too slow pace for me.
pretorius Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 4:01 pm
If I leave the New York metro, I will probably go to Calgary, Alberta.
dude: you have to plug-your-car-in overnight in the winter so your car will start in the morning….
njrebear Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 5:27 pm
Credit Suisse cutting 170 investment banking jobs
bear: these are REAL jobs in NYC
Calgary is milder than the northern location suggests. Not as cold as Montreal or Minneapolis.
cf,
Thanks for clarifying. What about the 500 at Morgan Stanley?
“Kettle1 Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:34 pm
#93 Pre,
Actually yes, as i posted the other me and the wife are giving it another 1 maybe 2 years and if we dont see positive change we are out!”
Same with me and Mrs. Patient.
“Last year I was speaking with a local in Costa Rica who said that the property taxes on his beach front 1/2 acre was less than $100/year. And the national language is English ;)”
My uncle moved to Costa Rica 15 years ago. He lives like a king there.
“pretorius Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:48 pm
Unless you have family here and want to live close to them, the only reason to live in North Jersey today is the proximity to New York City’s job, learning, and cultural opportunities. Does anybody disagree?”
We have found common ground, pre. I agree.
#110 John
“Is that Jaimie person a girl or a boy it is one of those names that is only good if you are a bi-sexual?”
Better be careful, Jamey might note that your name is handy if you’re a toilet.
#121 Kettle
“Massachusetts already has this problem and the state has has a net negative population growth for several years”
I believe that recently, net of immigrants, NJ has had negative population growth.
I’ve got a friend planning on making a move to Uruguay.
Uruguay? Really? Now I’m going to have to go look that up.
I like Pre’s Calgary idea. I don’t think I can be that far from a MLB stadium, however.
“Essex Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 4:39 pm
#46. Finally something NJpatient and I can agree on…..meet you at Gino’s….Philly rules. I’d live there in a heartbeat.”
Likewise. We’ll have to meet at Pat’s, though.
Or Monk’s!
Remember all those losers who reacted to the Bush election win by saying the were moving to Canada?
If they planned on finding a good job in Canada, then they would probably need to move to Alberta. Funny thing is Alberta is politically to the right of the United States.
Look at the last election in Canada. All 28 seats went to the Conservatives.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Canada2006.PNG
We are actually considering a move over to Switzerland —
#153 – yes, but I’d argue that Canadian “Conservatives” are actual (small-c) conservatives — not neocons like people who claim to be conservatives in our country.
My $.02. Look at how the size of government has grown since 2000; you’d think a Democrat took office :)
#153
“Conservative” doesn’t mean the same thing in Canada that it does here.
“My $.02. Look at how the size of government has grown since 2000; you’d think a Democrat took office :)”
But at least we’ve had a balanced budget. Oh…wait…
We can argue all day about this, but people from Alberta and people from Texas get along very well. There are a lot of hard core conservatives up there.
njrebear Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 6:47 pm
cf,Thanks for clarifying. What about the 500 at Morgan Stanley?
bear: garbage jobs at the mortgage subs
I am being told that the ax has fallen on UBS very hard yesterday. Does anyone has a body count in the MBS/ABS areas of the investment bank?
UBS cuts include New York investment bankers.
“pretorius Says:
We can argue all day about this, but people from Alberta and people from Texas get along very well. There are a lot of hard core conservatives up there.”
The party is called the “Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta”, which certainly doesn’t sound like hardcore Texas-style conservatism to me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Conservative_Association_of_Alberta
And apparently Alberta is trending less conservative:
“It was always viewed as unlikely that a centrist or left-leaning opposition party (the Alberta Liberal Party and the Alberta New Democrats, respectively) would be in a serious position to challenge the Conservatives for power in the 2004 general election. The Liberals, New Democrats, and a new right wing party, the Alberta Alliance, all campaigned aggressively against the Tories in 2004. The Klein government was re-elected, but lost a dozen urban seats. Many pundits expected losses in Edmonton, the traditional heartland of the provincial Liberals. However, the Conservatives unexpectedly lost three seats to the Liberals in Calgary, where the Tories had previously held every seat.”
So all of us professional middle upper class couples/familes up and leave nj. This could be caome quite a nasty cycle. As more of our demo graphic leave there is a smaller and smaller tax base so the state needs more and more taxes…. uh-oh
Is there a precedent for any US state being in this bad a shape financially before???
Hard to say kettle….I love the place, but it is deeply flawed….property taxes being a major issue…infrastructure….and yes, schools. Not to mention the inconsistencies of each little town….bizzare….I figure a couple of years in the alps might be just the ticket, then perhaps back to the area…but somewhere less congested….I dunno.
“Is there a precedent for any US state being in this bad a shape financially before???”
See page 5. New Jersey debt one of the highest but consistent with closest peers New York and Connecticut.
http://www.vermonttreasurer.gov/documents/misc/moodyReportDebtMedians2006.pdf
# chicagofinance Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:05 pm
By the way dimwit, get your facts straight. When the ball went through Buckner’s legs the game was already tied.
***
I just got back from Boston so sorry for the delayed response. I have several comments about the Buckner play:
1. It wasn’t as easy of a catch as it looked. The ball had a weird bounce.
2. Mookie very well could have been safe anyway, even if Buckner made the play.
3. As noted above, the game WAS already tied. And the Mets still had to win one more game.
That said, Let’s Go Yankees!
“It says more that the Phils and Braves didn’t move past them earlier.”
I’ve been saying this all season too.
if new jersey is expensive, calgary is not cheap either…
http://www.mls.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?vd=&SearchURL=%3fMode%3d0%26Page%3d1%26vs%3dResidential%26ret%3d300%26sts%3d0-0%26beds%3d0-0%26baths%3d0-0%26bt%3d1%26ci%3dCalgary%26pro%3d1%26mp%3d900000-1000000-0%26mrt%3d0-0-4%26trt%3d2%26of%3d1%26ps%3d10%26o%3dA&Mode=0&PropertyID=6121051
Bi,
That house is being sold along with a bunch of others. Basically somebody is selling the land to a developer.
Wouldn’t want to be a renter in Calgary these days. The biggest landlord there is getting 20%+ rent increases (see pp 17-18 of attached report.)
And nothing tenants can do about because the province’s right wing government laughed at them went they demanded rent control. Government did limit rent increases to once per year because landlords had been raisng rents every 6 months.
http://www.boardwalkreit.com/FinancialReports/r2007/07_2_SUPPLEMENTAL.pdf
WSJ
Why the Dollar Won’t Regain Its Past Strength
October 3, 2007
America’s heady deficit with the rest of the world has long looked like an accident waiting to happen. With the dollar’s recent slide, it doesn’t look like it’s waiting anymore.
If such alarmism sounds familiar, it should. In 2004, the dollar was falling amid mounting worries about America’s trade imbalance with the rest of the world. That year the U.S. current-account deficit — a broad measure of the trade imbalance — swelled to $640 billion, or 5.1% of gross domestic product.
Nouriel Roubini and Brad Setser, two academics who predicted a sharp decline in the dollar, became required reading on Wall Street desks.
Then in 2005, when everyone seemed to agree the dollar would fall further, it rallied instead. That put a temporary end to Wall Street’s current-account obsession and singed a few hedge funds in the process.
Why should this time be different?
Worries about the current-account deficit have been popping up in currency markets for years. Broadly speaking, the deficit measures how much more the U.S. spends on goods and services from abroad than it earns on the goods and services it sells. To cover the difference, the U.S. is, in effect, borrowing from other countries. If they tire of this routine, they’ll expect America to write bigger IOUs. The easiest way for that to happen is through a weaker dollar.
In practice, it seems like the current account is often just an after-the-fact explanation for declines in the dollar. The dollar bounces, and then something else grabs the market’s attention.
What’s different now, says Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff, is that the U.S. economy is looking weaker than many of its counterparts abroad.
At the moment, that’s largely a housing story. In the longer term, he thinks it’s also a productivity story. For a decade, heady U.S. productivity gains meant the U.S. economy could grow faster without fueling inflation — a key reason for why it became such an attractive investment destination and why that unsustainable current-account deficit was sustained.
Now, productivity growth in the U.S. appears to be slowing. At the same time, the rest of the world has been adopting the technology and practices U.S. companies pioneered, boosting productivity abroad.
That means U.S. growth may be slower relative to that in other countries for some time, with the upshot that investing in the U.S. — put another way, buying U.S. IOUs — won’t be as attractive as it once was.
In addition to pushing the currency lower, foreign investors could force U.S. interest rates higher relative to the rest of the world. Already, the spread between emerging-market bonds and U.S. Treasurys has narrowed substantially. They could also reduce the premium they’ll pay for U.S. stocks relative to other stocks.
In late 2005, Mr. Rogoff and Berkeley professor Maurice Obstfeld calculated that the current-account adjustment could push the dollar down by 30% against the Fed’s weighted basket of U.S. trading partners’ currencies. Since then, it’s fallen 11%, leaving about 20 percentage points to go. But rather than the sudden drop that current-account Cassandras sometimes envision, he expects the decline to be gradual.
“We’re only going to see a radical adjustment if the U.S. tips into recession,” he says.
price appreciation by cities since Jan 2000 in descending order. Here is the list.
Los Angeles 61.66
Miami 61.60
Washington 56.87
San Diego 56.46
Las Vegas 54.53
Tampa – FL 53.96
Phoenix – AZ 52.56
San Francisco 52.07
New York 51.72
Seattle – WA 48.00
Portland – OR 46.38
Boston 41.79
Chicago 39.81
Minneapolis – MN 39.34
Denver 28.18
Atlanta – GA 26.72
Charlotte – NC 26.25
Dallas – TX 20.85
Cleveland – OH 15.99
Detroit – MI 10.15
NYC is not at the top guys. It is 9th on the list of price appreciation.
Bankruptcy ‘tweak’ could save 600,000 homes
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/01/real_estate/subprime_bankruptcy_change/index.htm?postversion=2007100115
Consumer group pushes for change to bankruptcy law; others worry about negative impact on mortgage-debt markets.
…
Under current law, when a person files for Ch. 13 bankruptcy, judges cannot reduce mortgage debt owed on a person’s primary residence, although they may modify mortgages on investment property or second homes.
Under the House bill, the bankruptcy judge would have the option of reducing what the homeowner owes the lender. Say a homeowner’s property is worth less than what he owes. The judge could reduce the principal to match the home’s current market value as well as reduce the loan’s interest rate.
…
Steve Bartlett, president and CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable, contends the ultimate price would be paid by consumers. “If enacted, [the House bill] could have a de-stabilizing effect on the mortgage markets, which are now begging to stabilize,” Bartlett told a House Judiciary subcommittee.
Funding for the mortgage-debt market would dry up, and consumers would pay the ultimate price, he said. “This will force mortgage lenders to charge much higher interest rates for all types of mortgage loans. This will dry up credit for any American who cannot afford these higher interest rates.”
…
7:00 – MBA Purchase Applications
The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its mortgage Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey of home buying and refinancing application activity for the week ending Sep. 28. The purchase index dropped 7.3% to 418.8 in the latest week, following a 0.9% rise to 452 in the prior period. The refi index jumped up to 2026.5 in the week ended Sept. 21, from 1962 in the previous period. However, higher mortgage rates could drive refi applications down in the next couple weeks.
The four-week moving average for the purchase index was 436.2, from 437.4 in the week ended Sept. 14. The refi index jumped to 1908.8, from 1834.6.
The Federal Reserve’s Sept. 18 rate cut didn’t lower mortgage rates yet. The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.38% from 6.29%.
Well I guess in the bottom dweller world of Johns and Hos I rather be the John then being a Ho like Jaminey.
I still insist there is ZERO layoffs going on in Wall Street. If you go to nearly all of the firms that announced lay offs they have more open jobs at any given time then the amount of announced lay-offs. The credit crunch is just a good excuss to trim the dead wood from the trees. In fact for example Chase in 2006 utilized the brief June/July Summer downturn to trim. Large Companies when they announce layoffs are required to give 60 days notice. Chase gives bonus in January so layoffs magically stopped on 10/31/06. Reason being you couldn’t get the dead wood off your books quick enough to be reflected in the 2006 numbers and if they go past 12/31 they could fight to get a piece of the year end bounus. Kick the dead wood to the curb in Sept/Oct give them a severence package and make them sign a non-sue agreement and waive their rights for any claims on any year end bonus. Now remember Chase lets employees post during that 60 day period from when they are told they are being laid off till their last day so that means word is out in the company you are overpaid deadwood if not a single department picks you up in 60 days. Geting rid of these drains on profitability actually helps improve the bonuses year end and the margins. Plus when you outright fire deadwood it opens you up to lawsuits as you have to give a reason why, in a friendly layoff you just say your were great but we have excess capacity and here is a good severance but you just need to waive a few itty-bitty rights to get your check.
njpatient Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 7:05 pm
#110 John
“Is that Jaimie person a girl or a boy it is one of those names that is only good if you are a bi-sexual?”
Better be careful, Jamey might note that your name is handy if you’re a toilet.