From the WSJ:
When Home Builders Hit the Skids
As Troubled Developers Stop Work, Buyers Face Lost Deposits, Unfinished Houses And Crippling Liens; an Ice Rink in Limbo
By RUTH SIMON and KEMBA J. DUNHAM
November 14, 2007; Page D1
The tumbling housing market is claiming a new class of victim: customers of insolvent home builders.
In the latest sign of trouble, Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.-based Levitt & Sons, a unit of Levitt Corp., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last Friday, citing the “sudden and steep” downturn in the Florida housing market. Levitt’s move follows bankruptcy filings by a number of local and regional builders, including Neumann Homes Inc. in Illinois, Elliott Building Group in Pennsylvania, Turner-Dunn Homes Inc. in Arizona and Kara Homes Inc. in New Jersey. Many other builders simply close up shop.
And the situation is likely to worsen in the first half of next year, says Ivy Zelman, an independent housing analyst. “We’re in the first or second inning,” Ms. Zelman says. “There are going to be a significant number of insolvent builders.”
What a builder’s troubles mean for its customers can vary, depending on factors such as state law, contract terms and how long it takes to get the project back on track. In some cases, buyers may lose all or part of their deposit or wait a year or more for their house to be completed or the builder’s financial troubles to be sorted out.
Homeowners who’ve already moved into a new development can find themselves living near a half-finished house where work has been halted. They also face other questions, such as who will handle needed repairs, what will happen to a promised swimming pool and whether contractors have put liens on their properties — which could block access to financing. In some cases, local communities have stepped in to fix unfinished roads or pick up overflowing Dumpsters.
…
As the housing market has slumped, builders have struggled with rising inventories, falling home prices and cancellation rates that have topped 40% in some markets. Land prices have also dropped, leaving builders owing more for some parcels than those properties are now worth. Banks, meanwhile, are tightening their standards — not only for home buyers, but for the builders as well. IndyMac Bancorp Inc., which lends to small and midsize builders, said earlier this month that it expected 30% of its home-builder loans to be delinquent by the fourth quarter. The company says that it stopped making new construction loans to builders in August.
…
During the early 1990s housing downturn, some 15% of home builders went out of business, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The number of bankruptcy filings was very small, says NAHB research director Gopal Ahluwalia. Most troubled builders simply shut their doors or moved into other ventures. No one currently tracks builder bankruptcies, he says.Often, builders’ problems are evident long before any public filing. Before Kara Homes filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy a year ago, construction crews at its Horizons at Birch Hills development in Old Bridge, N.J., began disappearing, and vendors who had worked on the development were replaced by others who seemed less experienced, says homeowners’ association president Frank Ramsom. Kara employees also “started to neglect meetings” and provided “cryptic” answers to homeowners’ questions, he says.
Perry M. Mandarino, who was brought in to serve as the chief restructuring officer for Kara Homes, advises people buying a new home to “drive past it every few days or every week, not just on a Saturday,” to check on construction. “The warning signs are real obvious,” he says. “There’s a lot of construction, and all of a sudden it stops. There’s inclement weather and they are not boarding up the property.”
From MarketWatch:
HSBC to take $3.4 billion charge over U.S. losses
HSBC Holdings on Wednesday said it would have to write off a further $3.4 billion from its U.S. business during the third quarter, but said profit before tax will increase because of strong growth from Asia and the Middle East.
The lender, one of the first to report the damage from U.S. subprime mortgages, said it’s taking a $3.4 billion loan-impairment charge in its U.S. consumer finance business during the third quarter, which it said was $1.4 billion higher than would have been implied by extrapolating first-half trends.
Of this increment, about $700 million is related to real estate secured credit, with the remainder largely due to branch unsecured loan and cards portfolios.
“I think the thing that’s emerged in the third quarter is that the housing market deterioration is beginning to have a broader impact, both within the market and beginning to extend into other areas,” said Douglas Flint, group finance director, in a prepared interview.
This houseing downturn will be like no other.It is woven into the banking system and their ablity to issue any kind of credit and the public who lived off their homes.
No one wanted to say recession on media a short time ago, dare the word depression be spoken in the near future.
From The Record:
Credit woes squeeze house market
…
Tuesday’s report did not include the outlook for each state. But an earlier report said New Jersey house sales in the second quarter were running at a rate of about 148,000 a year, compared with sales of 154,100 in 2006 and more than 180,000 in both 2004 and 2005.
In other housing news Tuesday, the Center for Responsible Lending said that a rise in foreclosures will cause U.S. property values to sink by a total of $223 billion. Foreclosures are expected to increase in the next year or two, as borrowers who took out adjustable-rate mortgages see their monthly payments rise.
According to the center, foreclosures bring down the value of surrounding homes. The center said poor communities will be most affected.
More at the link above
From the same article:
Existing-home sales nationwide
————————————————-
2003 6.1 million
2004 6.8 million
2005 7.1 million
2006 6.48 million
2007* 5.67 million
2008* 5.69 million
*Projected
Source: National Association of Realtors
From The Record:
Assembly looks at housing reforms
The New Jersey Assembly will take on the affordable housing issue in 2008 with a series of reforms aimed at making it easier to live in a state where homeowners and renters face some of the highest costs in the nation.
Possible fixes include having the state school-funding formula benefit towns with low- and moderate-income housing and ending the state program that allows rich communities to pay others to take on their affordable housing quotas.
…
U.S. census data indicate New Jersey ranks behind only Maryland in household income, and the state’s homeowners and renters face the nation’s second- and fourth-highest monthly housing costs, respectively.
Fair market monthly rents for two-bedroom apartments in Bergen, Hudson, Morris and Passaic counties are all more than $1,000, meaning at least $42,500 in annual income is needed to live in North Jersey.
By the numbers
$71,792 is the average income for North Jersey households.
$35,896 or less qualifies as low-income in North Jersey.
$1,135 is the average monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment in North Jersey.
$494,109 is the average sales price for a home in North Jersey.
154,000 is the estimated number of affordable housing units needed statewide, including 57 North Jersey towns where quotas have not been set.
Sources: U.S. census; New Jersey Council on Affordable Housing; National Low Income Housing Coalition; National Association of Realtors, New Jersey Multiple Listing Service Inc.
More at the link above
Levitt has two 55-plus communities in the Atlanta area and work stopped dead last month leaving some people with their previous house sold, belongings in storage yet unable to close on their new house. Subcontractors started suing and one landscaping company got so miffed at not being paid that they pulled out all the bushes they had planted around the “amenities center.”
48 Oak Ridge Road, Ramsey NJ
Purchased: 8/23/2004
Purchase Price: $599,000
Sold: 11/12/2007
Sale Price: $575,000
NJMLS# 2722077
Want affordable housing? Lower property taxes and cut NJ spending. What a crazy concept.
“In financial markets, “we have a way to go before full recovery and must acknowledge that shocks and accidents might happen,” said Fisher said in remarks to the Australian Business Economists annual dinner.”
“I suspect some real `cow patties’ [EDIT, a Fed Reserve Bank Pres said this? Hilarious.] remain in some prominent institutional punchbowls in the U.S. and abroad, and they will undoubtedly come to light before too long,” Fisher said, referring to cow dung.
“The balance of risks is not skewed unilaterally toward slower growth,” Fisher said in the text of a speech today in Sydney. “We must remain far from smug on the inflation front and must conduct monetary policy” with that in mind, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5OlTYLBOBAY&refer=home
7:00 – MBA Purchase Applications
The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its mortgage Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey of home buying and refinancing application activity for the week ending Nov. 9. The purchase index held steady at 412.7 in the week ended Nov. 2, from 412.9 in the prior period. Meanwhile, the refi index retreated to 2176.1, from 2249.
The four-week moving average for the purchase index cooled to 417.6, from 419.5. The four-week moving average for the refi index was pushed up by the latest weekly result, to 2116.3, from 2073.1 in the week ended Oct. 26.
The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.16%, after falling to 6.15% in the prior period.
Any info #2445305 thank you.
So, based on the data below, approximately 7 times average income is the new calculation to be used when figuring how much house one could afford. Do I have that correct?
$71,792 is the average income for North Jersey households.
$494,109 is the average sales price for a home in North Jersey.
From the WSJ:
Why BofA Didn’t Flag Its Hit
Fresh Write-Down
Points to Difficulty
In Gauging Troubles
By VALERIE BAUERLEIN
November 14, 2007; Page C2
Bank of America Corp.’s write-down of $3 billion in collateralized debt obligations offered fresh evidence of how much financial giants are struggling to assess the value of investments long thought to be secure.
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB119497081881491491.html
I thought this part was interesting:
As the subprime crisis has deepened, Bank of America has reminded analysts and investors of the ways in which it differs from other financial giants that stumbled into huge write-downs and losses. Bank of America hasn’t made any subprime mortgages since 2001.
Wonder why? But they still have a portfolio of CDOs.
“Wonder why? But they still have a portfolio of CDOs.”
IMHO: yield grab…the $3B will reverse itself given time….
Mortgage applications up 5.5% last week: MBA
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:00 AM ET Nov 14, 2007
LAS VEGAS (MarketWatch) — Mortgage application filings increased 5.5% last week on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the prior week, driven by a jump in applications to refinance existing loans, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday.
Refinancing applications rose 6.4% on a week-to-week basis, while the volume of mortgage applications to purchase a home rose a seasonally adjusted 4.8%.
The four-week moving average for all mortgages was up 1.9%.
The volume of overall applications as tracked by the MBA in the week ended Nov. 9 was, on an unadjusted basis, up 21.8% compared with the same week in 2006.
Last week, refinancings accounted for 50.2% of all applications, up from 49.1% the previous week. Adjustable-rate mortgages also rose, accounting for 15.5% as opposed to 14.2%.
According to the MBA’s latest survey, the interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.19% last week, up from 6.16% the previous week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, a popular vehicle for refinancings, averaged 5.77%, unchanged from the previous week.
The rate on one-year ARMs averaged 5.98%, up from 5.94% the previous week.
The MBA survey covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations. End of Story
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mortgage-applications-rose-55-last/story.aspx?guid=%7b8E02B022-8963-40DD-8B7D-3FB9555AFE0B%7d&print=true&dist=printTop
Gary,
To determine what the current average house price to income ratio is you would need to compare the current sales data to the income data for people buying homes. The average income data includes people that have lived in their homes a long time, as well as renters, among other groups that would skew the data. You may have been being facetious.
Talk about NJ Livin’ On a Prayer….
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11142007/gossip/pagesix/pagesix.htm
Hmmm
anotherone Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 9:16 am
Gary,
To determine what the current average house price to income ratio is you would need to compare the current sales data to the income data for people buying homes. The average income data includes people that have lived in their homes a long time, as well as renters, among other groups that would skew the data. You may have been being facetious.
So we have separate society group -people who buy homes…..
They are not renters !!!
I guress untill they buy they live under the bridge.
Twist it any way you want – with Foreclosures rising in NJ with alarming speed it is obvious that the only statistic matter is affordability and it is based on average salary.
Want affordable housing? Let the towns which has free land allow development of single family homes for families with kids. Everyone will move up making housing more affordable.
In last 8 years, very few new developments have been built compared to 1990 to 1999. Most towns don’t want to allow more development as they fear cost of schools will increase with more kids coming in.
I am talking about counties little bit farther away not near NYC area (as many towns are already built out). Counties like Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer, Sussex etc…
#16,
I am not a RE but i agree with Gary, using the average NJ income of about 65K and considering the average home price is 490K, this is a very good indicator or serious issues in the states RE. You can definatly do a more detailed analysis, however as a first run check on the health of RE in NJ i would say that this is a very good one. Banks have traditionally gone with 2-3X your salary for a reason, because they have run risk models and have experience with default rates. Although recently they have apparently started drinking the same coolaide that the option ARM people were drinking.
From Bloomberg:
Bear Stearns to Take $1.2 Billion Subprime Writedown
Bear Stearns Cos., the second largest underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds in the U.S., will write down the value of its subprime-related assets by $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter, Chief Financial Officer Sam Molinaro said.
Analysts including David Hendler of CreditSights Inc. had estimated that the company would be forced to take a bigger charge. Bear Stearns shares rose 6.7 percent to $107.60 at 8:41 a.m. in New York, before the market opened
More at link above
Possible fixes include having the state school-funding formula benefit towns with low- and moderate-income housing
Way to go. Yes, the problem with affordability is that people paying taxes in middle class towns aren’t sending enough money to Newark and Paterson. Of course, more redistribution of wealth is the solution. That will keep people in NJ. [sarcasm off]
We support NEWARK??? *shocked look on face*
And now we can pay for all of the morons who bought homes in Poconos too…and commuted three hours to drive a bus.
I have a question for those of you who have been involved in recent sales and sales negotiations. To what extent are selling prices being kept elevated — at least on paper — by people who are offering cash back at closing, covering closing costs for the buyer, and other methods. With such techniques, when one looks at the county records it may look like a given sale generated one price but, taking into consideration the other inducements, the “real” selling price could be several percentage points lower. Are any of youseeing this or hearing about an increase of these approaches to sealing the deal?
all the banks which have to write down subprime loans have alreay writen them down: citi, hsbc, BofA, bear, ms, JP, UBS, wachovia,…, STU don’t wait for Goldman. it already said “not significant”. Deutche had some hedge position. so the ddrama is over… lets move on. the mortgage application is up 6% from prior week, over 20% YOY? what are you guys waiting for? maybe clot is right: 60% of bloggers here will never …
Bi…..ever the optimist…..
Now that we are headed full steam into the election cycle, with the first primaries less than two months away does anyone here believe these real trillion dollar issues in the banking and housing industries will be debated or will it be skirted over with rhetoric?
Even with all of the tail wagging going now on I have yet to read about any real comprehensive plan. The candidate have some statements on their web sites, like Hillary’s one billion dollar bailout fund which is laughable, or Obama’s plan to fine unscrupulous subprime lenders which would in turn be used to help bail out borrowers facing a wave of foreclosures, or Guliani’s plan to nuke all terrorists to pay for our housing and energy costs.
Back in 1988 at the crux of the S&L crisis there were no debates at all during the election cycle that discussed bailout or the issues in banking and housing.
Then a strange thing happened almost behind closed doors, after Bush #1 was elected there was a bailout plan in place only one month after his inauguration.
Is there a February 2009 surprise in store for us in the form of a government bailout?
Yeah, I remember his son Neal Bush was bailed out himself…..when it’s family it’s personal.
#25 So the I-B’s now say all is well, (the same ones who said there were no problems in the first place). Mtg.app activity is up? Yes, seems to be more in the re-fi market.
So your belief is that all is well,and as such we should go out and buy the over priced houses that are rotting on the market?
Why bi?
bi,
I hope you don’t charge for your advise because I just ran out of pennies.
25#, sorry acctually i don’t agree with clot’s assessment. i believe most folks here are sincerely looking for opportunities and 90% of folks here will end up owning their own home either in nyc metro area or somewhere else. but timing the market is a tricky game. that is why i got burnt every day.
29#, 3b, not just refi. you have to read line by line.
> Refinancing applications rose 6.4% on a week-to-week basis, while the volume of mortgage applications to purchase a home rose a seasonally adjusted 4.8%.
all the banks which have to write down subprime loans have alreay writen them down… so the ddrama is over… lets move on.
So all the banks wrote off possible future losses as well?
Or going forward there will no longer be problems with subprime loans as all the “bad” ones have already defaulted?
33#, i think so. they are taking this opportunity to write down losses as much as possible so they can claim tax deduction. that is why financials are doing well these days.
#32 bi The four-week moving average for all mortgages was up 1.9%.
You have to read line by line.
bi Says:
Refinancing applications rose 6.4% on a week-to-week basis, while the volume of mortgage applications to purchase a home rose a seasonally adjusted 4.8%.
Applications are up but approvals are down. If people get turned down, they will go to another lender and apply again. Only half of the loan programs that were available six months ago are still available today. You’re looking at the wrong number. Countrywide just said yesterday that originations are down 48% from last year. It’s the loan fundings…not the applications dummy!!!!
Bi, wake up and smell the coffee here and quit wasting everyone’s time.
35#, that is significant. because it moved out local flucutations. up 2% in 4 weeks. you wish your portfolio perform better than that?
bi, are you a realtor or trying to sell your house.
All of the above. Realtor trying to avoid a fire sale.
“all the banks which have to write down subprime loans have alreay writen them down:”
bi [25],
Everybody mark this date on your calendar. There will be no more write downs after 11/14. Does that also mean that the Hospice Care Fund will also be laid to rest?
The MBA survey covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations
Since a number of mortgage retailers have closed shop, those that still survive will see an increase in activity.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mortgage-applications-rose-55-last/story.aspx?guid=%7B8E02B022%2D8963%2D40DD%2D8B7D%2D3FB9555AFE0B%7D
interesting post from Lisoosh last night about sellers for the most part still not getting it.
On the one hand it seems amazing given the constant drumbreat of news on how bad the housing market is.
On the other hand, most people actually do not read news, particularly the business pages. Also, the last real estate downturn was at least 15 yrs ago, so it is somewhat understandable that people wouldn’t believe we are in one now, or that they might not even know such a thing is possible.
The other thing to think about is that people tend to brag when they turn a profit on their house, but keep their mouths shut when they don’t. Combine this with all of the cheerleading sellers hear from your average realtor and many likely have little idea that the market in their neighborhood is losing ground.
42#, first, the economic condition in this down-turn is significantly different from what happened 15 year ago. second, there is no need to read (or take seriously) financial news just no need to watch evening news. it is wait of time and make yourself less optimistic about future. third, the real estate market is local. the financial news, which covers all over the country, ususally tends more negative than positive and not cover the areas you are interested.
REO out in West Milford..
14 Wenonah
Purchased: 8/31/2005
Purchase Price: $455,000
Foreclosed, for sale by bank..
Current asking: $389,900
A madrasah is what this is. I can see people locked onto their computer monitors rocking back and forth and memorizing every post made here. These RE various blogs are hotbeds of radicalism churning out new housing militants daily. There’s little to be done here to convince most otherwise when people become gleeful over major financial institutions losing billions. It’s a very sad day indeed when militants become giddy at the prospect of more foreclosures and more pain.
Granted, some of this has come from the fact that home ownership has been uneven which has left some resentful of the fact that they didn’t participate in the runup. But that was really a choice that they made; they didn’t buy. They continue to compound that error by not buying now. Unfortunately, this has created a sort of class resentment. Those who own are resented and there’s a movement afoot to “get them” by upending the real estate markets.
This is depressing and maddening at the same time.
what percentage of property taxes go to urban areas? I’m sick of hearing people blame the urban areas for high taxes. Look at your school district taxes and local taxes first…then find out what percentage of your county taxes actually go to these urban centers. Do county roads run through your town? Who owns the water mains that get water to your town? What about the well manicured park or public golf course accross the street, town or county owned?
Then again, we could put the garbage transferr station in your town instead of Newark or the jail, or the main rail and bus hub. in fact, lets start a lobby to have newark and patterson return some of the money it gets for providing low income housing instead of the suburban towns.
my 2 cents
Getting back to income vs. home price ratio.
Me and the wife have a dual income of approx.
$175,000. I have one child and another one cooking. Personnaly I do not feel comfortable paying anything over $500,000 and thats with a 20%dp. I am will to spend slightly more for my version of a perfect house but will still be squirming any penny over. Long story short…IMO between 2.5x and 3x salary.
Buyers unite….sellers will bleed!!!
reinvestor, I thought you said yesterday you weren’t going to post here anymore?
“Those who own are resented and there’s a movement afoot to “get them” by upending the real estate markets.”
50.5 [45],
Quite the contrary, many friends are actually pissed at me since I did not convince them to sell. Imagine that?
Your posts were comical now they are simply asinine and repetitive.
re666,
Is being short a jihadist tactic as well?
Al (#18),
You are missing the point. Average income numbers are, to some extent, skewed by including lower income households that cannot afford to own, or can only afford to own because they bought 20 years ago. Owning is not an option for everyone, even if prices took a 50% haircut. I was just saying that if you want to use data to determine what the actual home price/income ratio is, you need to use different figures.
I don’t know, was there ever a time that the average home sold was only 2-3 times the average income?
#51, anyone buying in NJ 95-99 was in that boat.
anotherone Says:
“To determine what the current average house price to income ratio is you would need to compare the current sales data to the income data for people buying homes. The average income data includes people that have lived in their homes a long time, as well as renters, among other groups that would skew the data. You may have been being facetious.”
Uh No.
The statistics mentioned were used to define AFFORDABILITY, not the relative wealth of recent home buyers.
Average income numbers are, to some extent, skewed by including lower income households
Actually thats not true. Than we would also say numbers are skew my people with NY salaries. I am curious to see if we exclude people who live in NJ and work in NYC what the actaul Household income in NJ would be.
#45 reinvestor…you’re an idiot. You assume that anyone could have entered the market to ride the wave? How about those exiting college, earning a starting salary. Or those climbing the corporate ladder making more money which happened to parallel the rise in the RE market (myself included) – disallowing an entry into housing. Are you so thick and naive that you can’t see that this ever expanding (until now) appreciation trend kept buyers from entering b/c they (I) just couldn’t afford? Or as I like to call them…fiscally responsible.
I don’t like to hear that American banks are taking it in the a$$, but they earned it. You keep poking that hornets nest and guess what’ll happen?
And as for all the specs, I’m glad they made money while they could – good for them – however it doesn’t last and can never be expected to do so, except maybe in your bizarro world of economics. We’re in a market driven, self correcting economy – this is all just part of the ride. So if you’re a homeowner who’s over leveraged and unable to sell your house – bend over, put your head between your knees and kiss your a$$ goodbye!
After 9-11, it came out that they were a few people who were short airline stocks and a few other stocks that were negatively impacted by that event. So yes, depending on who did it and for what purpose it could be jihadist-like in nature. Those dirtbags at Goldman Sachs might have pushed this whole thing along so they could profit. Hell, they’ll probably be trying to take over one of the other players.
grim Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 10:39 am
re666,
Is being short a jihadist tactic as well?
perhaps… affordability should be measured using data from a population that “tend” or want to buy homes. lots of rich people don’t want to buy homes and many people in the lowest income brackets will never be able to buy.
perhaps… we should look at – what is the “traditional” income bracket (taking inflation into account of course) within which people buy homes? Is THAT income bracket still finding that homes are affordable or not? i think that is a better gauge than looking at people making $20,000 or 20 million a year and coming up with a bland overall median or average household income.
Great Minynaville piece re Mothballing by Builders:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/len-spf/index/a/14867
This is a poster child for the resentment scenario I described. There’s absolutely nothing I did to deserve this venom! Why is he attacking me?
SS Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:01 am
#45 reinvestor…you’re an idiot. You assume that anyone could have entered the market to ride the wave? How about those exiting college, earning a starting salary. Or those climbing the corporate ladder making more money which happened to parallel the rise in the RE market (myself included) – disallowing an entry into housing. Are you so thick and naive that you can’t see that this ever expanding (until now) appreciation trend kept buyers from entering b/c they (I) just couldn’t afford? Or as I like to call them…fiscally responsible.
I don’t like to hear that American banks are taking it in the a$$, but they earned it. You keep poking that hornets nest and guess what’ll happen?
And as for all the specs, I’m glad they made money while they could – good for them – however it doesn’t last and can never be expected to do so, except maybe in your bizarro world of economics. We’re in a market driven, self correcting economy – this is all just part of the ride. So if you’re a homeowner who’s over leveraged and unable to sell your house – bend over, put your head between your knees and kiss your a$$ goodbye!
Grim #44 Went thru W. Milford yesterday a Forsale sign on almost every block.Upper greenwood lake almost funny so many 2 to 3 a corner, as all run off main road.Many FSBO signs also.As this decline goes from outer to inner areas to NY might you guys who have means to compile data look out here to see trends for BC & train towns.Just a thought.
par4156 — not an expert here, but where is the money for all of the development in the Newark area coming from? Locals pay for their schools by vote….every year. It is an issue for them as the state seems to not be funding much in the way of education and you can guarantee that a poorly funded school system will drag down property values faster than pit bull owning neighbors with jalopies on blocks in their driveways….my two cents.
33#, i think so. they are taking this opportunity to write down losses as much as possible so they can claim tax deduction. that is why financials are doing well these days.
You think they are or you hope they are? It must be hope if you believe “the drama is over” and it’s time to “move on”.
And financials are doing well? Compared to the start of the year? Because if you mean last week… well that’ll just remind me of why I ignore your posts.
And don’t give me this day-trader crap as I recall you said you were long on all your positions.
Goodbye Bi
Rich
REInvestor: “These RE various blogs are hotbeds of radicalism churning out new housing militants daily.”
I became a “housing militant” before reading any blogs.
Delusional prices and half-assed agents did the job for me.
Florida Holds $2.2 Billion of Debt Cut to Junk Status
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6tRxAM30V_8&refer=home
Florida isn’t the only government whose short-term investments have been affected by rising mortgage defaults in the U.S. and investors’ diminished appetite for the securities tied to them.
“I think there are other communities that are going to follow, probably a lot of them,” former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt said today in an interview.
#49 BC Bob: Oh yeah, the tide has definitely turned, nobody family/friends screaming real estate any more. Very subdued.
Since nobody really responded to my last bailout post I will up the ante a bit.
Backdoor bailouts are occuring via the FHLB and are the unrecognized mechanism keeping the credit crisis from worsening.
The FHLB of New York now is offering “Principal-Deferred Advances” which allows borrowers defer principal repayment for up to five years — with a fixed rate.
These Home Loan Banks are GSEs, or government supported enterprises like Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Which means in the real politick of government finance backed by the taxpayer.
All of which may provide some preview of what’s to come. Do you believe Washington will stand beside idly during a credit and housing collapse in an election year?
par4156 Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:03 am
“perhaps… affordability should be measured using data from a population that “tend” or want to buy homes. lots of rich people don’t want to buy homes and many people in the lowest income brackets will never be able to buy.”
The trouble with that reasoning is that as prices drop and “affordability” increases, the bottom end of the income pool actually enters into the subset of people likely or willing to buy.
The idea of defining affordability by looking at people who can already afford a specific price range is the exact opposite of the point of the statistical exercise – which is to define what percentage of a population can afford to buy a home.
a perspective on “affordability” –
http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2007/0507karger.html
Do you want a tissue?
I’m attacking your logic, or lack of it. I am not resentful of you or anyone. I have family and friends who profited nicely from the RE market over the last 10 years, and I couldn’t have been more happy for them. However it’s turned to dust now as they’re stuck in their homes – unable to afford them, and honestly it stings to see it happen.
They also knew that it doesn’t last, and I can’t see how you expect it to last through government codling. I’m no economist or RE expert, but I’ve learned enough to know how the American open market works. We’re in for a good bruising – am I happy about it – no, but I do think it’s needed.
You need a raise! Most people buying those $500K plus houses are rolling profit money from their little coop/condo/cape that has had a big run-up so they can afford it, as the rule is not income versus home price it is income versus mortgage. A one bedroom coop bought for 80K in 2000 that a newlwed couple bought is now worth 200K so that couple has around 150K equity and easily could have save up 100K in seven years. Traditionally, 20% is the minimun downpayment you should put down. Just ten years ago that would not be something to brag about, most people were doing 30-40% down as housing was not considered something that grew quickly in value and rates were high so the less your mortgage the better. My first place I bought for the tax break and it was $200 less than renting. I was not counting on any appreciation. I got lucky and got some to boot.
GatorFan Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 10:34 am
Getting back to income vs. home price ratio.
Me and the wife have a dual income of approx.
$175,000. I have one child and another one cooking. Personnaly I do not feel comfortable paying anything over $500,000 and thats with a 20%dp.
Homer (54),
Homer, that the numbers do not include NYC earners living in NJ is another reason to use the numbers that i suggested were needed – the annual incomes of those buying houses. that is another factor that should be included that would significantly increase the incomes and decrease the ratios. also, that fact that averages would include lower incomes that cannot afford in any case to purchase houses is an independent factor.
“par4156 Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:15 am
a perspective on “affordability” -”
Again, approached from the wrong angle. Note this sentence from the article:
“What’s conspicuously absent from the news reports is the effect of the subprime lending debacle on poor and working-class families who bought into the dream of homeownership, regardless of the price.” -REGARDLESS OF THE PRICE.
The trouble with pushing low income people into homeownership was the use of supposed “affordability” products which actually were pretty bad loans, which were also used to essentially drive up the price of housing.
For a stable low income worker making $20k a year, a $30k home (and those do exist) might actually be a good buy in an area where rents are high – it’s all relative.
There are several socio-economic reasons why the truly poor should not necessarily own a home, but that has nothing to do with percentage population that can afford a home, which is a statistical figure.
Very interesting affordability debate!
Anotherone,
FYI: It does include those NYC earners living in NJ as they still pay NJ income taxes.
Rich
Essex (60),
I guess i’m not an expert either. I just wanted to contribute another perspective. To your question – i think many of us are aware of the type of private and non-profit(?)deals that led to investment in Newark in recent years…especially real estate investment. hopefully that is coming under control. i know that lease contracts with the Port Authority and NJ Transit have been lucrative for newark and paid for much of the downtown (re?)-development.
As far as the schools, my take is that if you can’t attract increasing numbers of the best and brightest, then the school district will never improve…no matter how much money is spent on infrastructure. Newark has a tough road ahead …no doubt, but i don’t think it’s the main reason our taxes are high in the more suburban areas.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html?_r=1&ref=patrick.net&oref=slogin
Buying versus renting calculator, everyone should have been required to use it in 2005 and 2006
Thanks, Rich. That suggests, that at least, you would want to use average NNJ numbers. I would presume that those incomes are higher than CNJ, because of more NYC commuters.
I understand the argument that median income isn’t a great measure of affordability, esp in an are like the NYC metro area where there is wide income disparity between rich and poor and a relatively permanent underclass.
On the other hand, the median house price to median income measure does provide a basis for comparing changes over time. For example, up until a few years ago, the ratio was about 4:1. It peaked around 8:1 and now seems closer to 7:1.
This either tells you that housing got less affordable and is now getting more affordable, or it tells you that there was some massive shifting in the profile of the typical housebuyer in the past few years (i.e., that more homebuyers came from a higher income bracket, so that prices of houses tended to skew upward)
hey par….I dunno either….best and brightest though…I think if the school can offer safe/clean/well maintained bldgs….programs that cater to diverse talents and skills….a just hire decent people who care to teach they are ahead of the game….even that costs $$$
Essex Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:09 am
par4156 — not an expert here, but where is the money for all of the development in the Newark area coming from?
________________________________________________
I think the bigger question is to what extent “Newark” is beneficiary of that development. How does the average citizen of that community benefit because they build a minor league baseball stadium or a performance hall? The point is your property taxes are almost exclusively a function of spending and investment in YOUR community and projects emanating from Trenton. They are not taking money from your paycheck and handing it over to a Paterson welfare mother to pay for her new Cadillac. Enough mythology already.
http://blog.mlive.com/annarbornews/2007/08/HRACUcase.pdf
Legal documents for class action lawsuit for dopes who took RE seminars and started flipping.
Listen,,,its obvious that housing is overpriced. I bought a house in Rockaway for 107,000k with 20k improvemnets I sold for 305k within 6 years I made 180k + the guy who owned it before for 10 years made 17k…These prices of homes are not REAL..anyone buying now will have an asset in 5 years worth hundreds of thousands less than what they bought it for.
PS: I am glad as hell for the Bubble, now bring the prices back to Norms..
bi Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 10:02 am
but timing the market is a tricky game. that is why i got burnt every day.
Inadvertent confession?
From MarketWatch:
Personal Finance Daily
Potential home buyers are quite content to sit on the sidelines these days and that really is the safest place to be. A glut of inventory, a jump in foreclosures and a tumbling of prices in many markets don’t do anything to instill confidence in a buyer.
And at the moment there seems to be no down side to waiting. Home builders have not done much to juice sales with the incentives they have been offering, so buyers can expect more price cuts and free upgrades to come. Existing-home sellers also haven’t yet come to price reality in most places, and so the best bargains on that side of the market would seem to still be ahead. Plus, there is little fear interest rates will move higher, often a motivator for buyers. In fact, rates look like they could move down next year.
All of that provides a big Catch-22 for the real estate industry: The market won’t recover until buyers regain some sort of confidence and buyers won’t regain confidence until the market shows some signs of recovery. Stalemate.
….
Followed by recent Real Estate, Tax, Banking, Investing, etc. stories at link above.
———
Skep-tic,
Good points re: affordability
Rich
reinvestor, you don’t have to worry about any groundswell of RE ‘militants’ dragging the market down. those posters here will have next to zero impact on the RE economy. the game has been and always will be rigged to the benefit of homeowners. sure there are unique opportunities to get in at a lower level but long term the outcome is always the same. question for those here is what’s the right time to get in. that’s an individual choice.
Re: Affordability
Can someone please explain to me (not you Homer) why it makes sense to exclude individuals who LIVE IN NJ but WORK IN NYC from an NJ Real Estate Affordability discussion? If they live in NJ, then what difference does it make where they derive their income from? Don’t they still either own real estate in NJ, or rent with potential to buy?
Or, for others here, the question is at what loss level to get out.
Sometimes one’s red light is another’s green light.
You know…one man’s trash?
A voice of reason emerges from the forest.
Richard, I hope you’re correct on the impact of some here on the real estate markets. I do agree that the game is rigged for ownership and investment. The problem is that so many here are against that whole idea and we have to worry about what they may be teaching their children and grandchildren. We really can’t have another generation of people who are militantly against the whole idea of investing in real estate while being resentful when others invest.
Richard Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:47 am
reinvestor, you don’t have to worry about any groundswell of RE ‘militants’ dragging the market down. those posters here will have next to zero impact on the RE economy. the game has been and always will be rigged to the benefit of homeowners. sure there are unique opportunities to get in at a lower level but long term the outcome is always the same. question for those here is what’s the right time to get in. that’s an individual choice.
reinvestor..you weren’t concentrating. You’ve been doing really well up until now.
24 Zuegel Ct, Bergenfield (REO)
SOLD $500,000 3/31/2006
ACTIVE $425,000 11/14/2007
Note how the “bright spots” are all about perception and there is no quoted quantitative measure of improvement – Note too the mention of “good will and interest” from the suburbs….seems like we interpret that as MONEY!
From the Times (7/22/07)
There are bright spots, and with help from the state and some genuine good will and interest from its suburban residents, these bright spots could become a catalyst for Newark’s resurgence. Most important of these is the city’s mayor, Cory Booker, who took office just over a year ago and seems committed to improving the city rather than enriching himself and his cronies.
There is also a downtown boom — the performing arts center, a minor league ballpark and a soon-to-open arena for the New Jersey Devils hockey team — along with a steadily improving university section that contains part of the state’s medical school and several other campuses. Significant, too, is a recent poll by The Star-Ledger of Newark showing that three of four residents believe that things can improve.
Sanford Jaffe, who was the staff director for the governor’s commission that reported on the riots and their causes in 1968, recalls that at the time Newark residents believed that political corruption was so pervasive that government could do nothing to make the city better. Corruption still exists, he notes, but people also believe that the city’s government now has the potential to move things forward.
Sorry doyle I have to say something in my defense. I just think it would be interesting to see the differnece that it makes. But yes Commuter do buy and sell real estate. I just get urked that everyone including realtors think that everyone looking to buy a home is a commuter. I could care less about promiximity to NYC. And I am just cuirous to see what NJ average household income would be if we exluded commuters. I bet there would be a significant difference. But since commuter are a part of NJ they shoudld be included as middle class and poor people should be included.
(87)
“reinvestor..you weren’t concentrating. You’ve been doing really well up until now.”
I’m not good at mental telepathy, so your proposal from yesterday was rejected.
Tell you what, missy, as soon as you see a post on the board from me. Just stop and leave. If a couple of days past without a post from me, then you’re in the clear.
If we can handle things in that manner, everything can remain peaceful.
All:
I think the biggest factor with average NJ salary (in reference to housing prices) that isn’t taken into consideration is the all money earned on housing. For the last 10 years people have been making 50-250k when selling houses. That isn’t factored into average salary but is a huge factor when you can drop a huge down payment on a 400-500k house.
I guess the average salary should only be used when talking about first time owners.
a lot of folks here like to compare current real estate down turn to what happened 15 years ago. i remember what happened 15 years ago: a black gentleman took the pizza i delivered in chicago surburb and then gave me the money saying “thank you! you must be a phd.”
For anyone who is interested (pdf warning);
http://www.usmayors.org/74thWinterMeeting/metroeconreport_January2006.pdf
A US Conference of Mayors report on metro areas economic influence in regional economies. Its data isn’t as granular as some would like but it does give indications of how much of an economic influence NYC might have (hint, a lot).
I stumbled across another report on the same topic that dealt primarily with salaries. I’ll see if I can find it again. From what I remember something upwards of 50% of all the income earned in NJ was earned in NYC. Again this is a recollection, so take that with a grain o’ salt.
reinvestor101 Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:01 am
After 9-11, it came out that they were a few people who were short airline stocks and a few other stocks that were negatively impacted by that event. So yes, depending on who did it and for what purpose it could be jihadist-like in nature. Those dirtbags at Goldman Sachs might have pushed this whole thing along so they could profit. Hell, they’ll probably be trying to take over one of the other players.
RE: Being short an airline on 9-10-2001 is no conspiracy…..at that juncture, it would seem to me common sense….we were already heading for recession and Enron was in the midst of staggering setting of a chain of events that would rack the innards of corporate America….
Average income numbers are, to some extent, skewed by including lower income households that cannot afford to own
Actually average income numbers tend to be skewed high. If you compare average with median incomes, average income is almost always higher; an indication that a few high incomes are skewing the average to the high side, meaning most people earn less than the average income.
Read the “Problems with some uses of the mean” section
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arithmetic_mean
Secondly, incomes are also correlated with age. The highest earners tend to be in the 45 – 65 census bracket. It is highly likely that most individuals in this group are not first time buyers. They already own or will rent or life and if stripped from the income statistics, would drive down income levels.
#90
Homer, fair enough, you scared me there with that level-headed response.
Also, don’t forget that not everyone who commutes to NYC makes good $. I know many who commute that do not. This just happens to be where they landed a gig, or where the industry they work in is located. And, not everyone works in finance or is a lawyer.
bi Says: November 14th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
i remember what happened 15 years ago: a black gentleman took the pizza i delivered in chicago surburb and then gave me the money saying “thank you! you must be a phd.”
bipolar: chicago pizza? How about Harold’s?
Wait…how the Harold’s on Cottage Grove and 62nd with the bullet-proof glass…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold's_Chicken_Shack
Reinvestor 101 what happened to…
# reinvestor101 Says:
November 13th, 2007 at 3:14 pm
The last comments by Kettle and Homer put a fork in me. I’m “done” trying to respond to these attacks.
You won’t have me to kick around anymore. Goodbye.
do you need to be kicked some more????? hey there is nothing wrong with a little S&M right ? :)
Thain to Take Top Post at Merrill
By AARON LUCCHETTI
November 14, 2007 12:30 p.m.
John Thain, CEO of NYSE Euronext, has agreed to take the top post at brokerage house Merrill Lynch & Co., according to a person familiar with the matter.
The move is somewhat unexpected as many insiders on Wall Street were speculating Merrill Lynch’s board would tap BlackRock Inc. CEO Larry Fink.
More details are expected shortly.
MER up 6% to $60.50
I guess its the fact of the New Yorkers I deal with everyday on the phone ignorant people they are. Plus a few months back when NYC had that storm and the bad weather caused power outages, New Yorkers blamed con ed for a power outage. Come on now did they go around ripping down powerlines and go around with chainsaws and cut down trees…I guess they don’t know about mother nature. Its ignorance like that makes people dislike the people there.
There is such a big huff puff about stocks..to me I enjoy when stocks are in the red, makes me feel good to know the greedy people on wall street are doing a bad job :)
I need a small piece of advice from the realtors. I am looking to put an offer on a nice BC Fixer Upper. The house is listed with an office in the town and I had been working with a buyers agent in the same office looking at differnt places. I had found the place and had the agent show us it. I am looking to put an offer in at about 30% under OLP. The property has come down to 90% of OLP and they went into contract at 80%OLP but that fell through. Originally my agent said it would go for 85%OLP and no lower. While that price didn’t work for me, i am supprised that he didn’t come back to me to tell me of the lower offer.
Now here is my problem. I saw the house in the Sunday paper with a “Make an offer” I called my agent saying I want to go with 70%OLP. I am getting a bit of a run around and he seems reluctant to put the offer in. My question is should I just go to the listing agent direct and let the office fight out the commission if we get the place. I think my offer with 50% down and a quick closing wouls have a chance. With Thanksgiving approching I thinbk the offer might fly.
Any thoughts?
“Kettle1 Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 9:33 am
#16,
I am not a RE but i agree with Gary, using the average NJ income of about 65K and considering the average home price is 490K, this is a very good indicator or serious issues in the states RE.”
agree here too. If you take anotherone’s approach and only factor in incomes of buyers, then you’ve got a self-fulfilling prophecy problem (i.e., people who can afford the $490k home are buyers and everyone drops out, hence, everyone who is included in anotherone’s model will always be able to buy at whatever the going price is).
renting (22)-
I saw that piece of news this morning and wanted to barf. You almost get the feeling that there is a systematic, calculated conspiracy to a) completely dispossess the middle class in NJ, thereby forcing those people to: b) move as far away as possible.
Homer,
Do you really think that people 25 miles apart and divided by an imaginary boundary line make them SO different? Your overly superior remarks come across more as jealousy then observations.
And once and for all, people have been commuting to NYC from NJ before the turn of the LAST century. It is what it is.
(PS If ConEd doesn’t maintain the power lines by trimming trees as PSE&G does, maybe they are partially responsible.)
PGC (103)-
70% of what? Is the home competitively-priced…or is it marked to blackbox?
Not enough info here to hazard an opinion.
reinvestor 25.25, I thought you said you were leaving yesterday? Now you’re back? Please leave this blog.
103 –> “I am getting a bit of a run around and he seems reluctant to put the offer in.”
Is it not true in NJ that a RE agent has an obligation to bring all offers to a seller? Since when is it the agent’s job to decide for a seller what a reasonable offer is?
If an agent refuses to bring an offer or delays and the market condition worsens, is the agent exposed to a suit?
sx (26)-
More like Pangloss on crack.
PGC,
Why not tell the agent you are using that if they don’t want to submit the offer that you can always find another agent that will?
Rich
(99)Kettle
“do you need to be kicked some more????? hey there is nothing wrong with a little S&M right ? :)”
Let me tell you something, Homey don’t play dat.
I tried to ignore your comments about cat of nine tails yesterday, but I see you’re back with this nonsense. I don’t know what your problem is, but please be reminded that this is a real estate blog and not some place where you can live out your perversions.
shore (109)-
An agent can always refuse to write an offer. However, once a written offer is prepared, it must be presented to the seller.
sx (28)-
You could actually look at the entire Bush family as one, continuous, multi-generational bailout.
#106
Rich in NNJ,
Thanks for that, I don’t have the strength. Homer presented one sane post and went right back to lunacy. As I have said from the beginning, everything he rips into is directly related to his own envy.
PGC,
I’ve had listing agents give my realtor an attitude with things like “I don’t even want to make this offer…but I will.” So I can see the listing agent giving a hard time because they’re typically the one that priced the house and to see an offer 20% off LP makes it look like they priced it wrong. They’re also trying to make it seem like the house is worth more adn get more $ out of you.
However, if your agent is not submitting an offer, get a new one. Also, in this environment, he should be happy giving any offer as it seems like offers of any kind are a tough thing to come by in this market.
bi (31)-
“…that is why i got burnt every day.”
Are you Elvis Patterson?
#107 Clotpol
70% of Original List price when the property went on the market six months ago. They have come down to 90% and the offer that fell through was at 80%. Its an estate sale, so I assume they will want to bet settled by the end of the year.
My question is should I bypass my agent and go to the listing agent direct.
“reinvestor101 Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 10:29 am
A madrasah is what this is. I can see people locked onto their computer monitors rocking back and forth and memorizing every post made here. These RE various blogs are hotbeds of radicalism churning out new housing militants daily.”
Yesterday you promised not to return.
reinvestor 45
“This is depressing and maddening at the same time.”
Sorry that you’re so depressed and angry. Grab a beer and go back to bed.
if you want to put in an offer at 70% OLP and the agent won’t then by all means find someone that will. while the agent ultimately represents their employer you’re the one that would generate the commission so tell them to do the offer or go scratch.
113 “An agent can always refuse to write an offer. However, once a written offer is prepared, it must be presented to the seller.”
Even the listing agent? If so, this would seem a real problem for sellers in a down market,inasmuch as an agent, hoping for a short downturn and quick turnaround, could put a seller at a real disadvantage and cost real money. I suspect that the difference in in-the-pocket commission for an agent would not differ much for a house selling at 425k vs. 450k, but if one is looking at 25-30% OLP it is a very different matter. Of course, the carrying costs for the seller can be considerable and having the property on the market for a longer period can begin to offset the extra revenue from holding out for the hypothetically higher sale in the future.
If send my broker to buy try and buy a stock at a price below market, sometimes I find a seller, sometimes not but, it is not the broker’s place to tell me “hey, such-and-such company stock closed at 42 yesterday and is at 42.25 right now, I will not make an offer at 40. That is the way the market moves, sometimes people offer more, and sometime less. Are the RE laws in NJ so messed up that sellers can get disadvantaged by agents who just refuse “to write an offer?”
25.25 (45)-
Whatever your current financial problem is, it will eventually go away.
Unfortunately, stupid is forever.
Folks…
Realize that the regs in place surrounding written offer presentation have everything to do with protecting the seller and little to nothing to do with protecting a buyer.
reinvestor
“There’s absolutely nothing I did to deserve this venom! Why is he attacking me?”
Actually, you’re a lunatic whose psychotic break apparently happened years ago.
you take up time and space with your lunatic rantings, annoying every single person on here except bi.
You call folks on here jihadists and traitors and anti american and 25 other assorted insults and you wonder why we all think you’re an a-hole?
Frankly, it speaks well of the community here that everyone is so polite to you.
It simply blows my mind that there are all of these RE agents out there who refuse to submit their clients bids. If anyone in my firm ever even suggested that they wouldn’t submit a client’s bid they’d be fired before they finished their sentence
Grim,
Could you tell me what the status is of MLS# 2393905? You told me a few weeks ago about a price reduction, it is no longer listed and I’m curious if it sold. Thanks.
anecdote: the other night, I was on the way home, and my driver (first generation Russian from Brighton Beach) asked “when did you buy new place?” I told him that we were still renting, and that we’d been looking to buy but decided to continue renting because we thought prices would come down. He said “You make right choice. Wait a year. Wait two. Is very bad time.”
Not the advice I would have gotten a year ago.
“You call folks on here jihadists and traitors and anti american and 25 other assorted insults and you wonder why we all think you’re an a-hole?”
patient [126],
Someday 50.5 will look in the mirror and realize that he is an a-hole.
From MarketWatch:
Mortgage reform bill goes to vote in House
As the fallout from the subprime lending crisis continues, House lawmakers are scheduled to vote Thursday on a major bill reforming the mortgage industry.
Passed by the House Financial Services Committee on Nov. 6, the bill includes minimum standards for approving loans and some new liabilities on those who securitize risky mortgages. It would also prohibit lenders or brokers from “steering” borrowers into some loans.
Democrats like Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the panel’s chairman, say there is a national crisis to which lawmakers must respond.
More than 2 million subprime mortgages are expected to reset to higher interest rates in the next 18 months. The Bush administration says current trends suggest there will be just over 1 million foreclosures this year, with 620,000 of those in the subprime market.
Republicans including Rep. Spencer Bachus of Alabama backed the bill, saying the subprime problem has affected the housing market and financial markets.
But some conservatives argue the bill would curtail new mortgages and the ability to refinance, worsening the housing market in the process.
RayC,
Under Contract as of 11/5
124 “Folks…
Realize that the regs in place surrounding written offer presentation have everything to do with protecting the seller and little to nothing to do with protecting a buyer.”
I agree that this is what the regs should do. The concern I have, if an agent need not even write an offer, is that the interests of a seller could be seriously compromised by either a well-meaning or a self-serving agent.
If I am a seller, and I, by myself or with the assistance of an agent, set a LP for a property, I am, in essence, attempting to make an estimate of what the market will bear for that property. This is an inexact science, to be sure, but one does what one can. Depending on market conditions, it may benefit a seller to estimate onthe high side; it could sell at that price.
That said, the ultimate value of a given asset, especially RE, is the market. If an offer comes in lower, even to what the agent thinks is “too much lower,” it may in fact be an unrealistic number OR it could be a sign that the market for that property is not what the best assessment of the seller or the agent thought it was. In either case, the seller deserves the opportunity to either 1) adjust his or her thinking about the realities of the market and the value of the property in that market or 2) to have a good belly laugh over the offer.
Nevertheless, for anyone to substitute his or her judgement for that of the seller (absent clear instructions not to bring any offers below a predetermined number) does a disservice to the seller and, in a declining market, could, and I suspect would, hurt the seller’s ultimate price.
Thoughts?
“dreamtheaterr Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 11:43 am
bi Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 10:02 am
but timing the market is a tricky game. that is why i got burnt every day.
Inadvertent confession?”
I had the same reaction. I think that’s the first time I’ve heard bi admit that he got burnt, I just didn’t realize it was “every day.”
85 Doyle
I can’t because it doesn’t.
Average Salary is silly for several reasons
Should only be average salary of people buying houses, why are retired and poor people who have no intention of buying a home averaged in.
People are selling a prior home and banking up to 250K profit without it hitting the tax return
People who do trade up homes in their late 40’s often are doing it with tax free inheritance money.
There are tons of above the line deductions, 401k, FSA, Childcare, Transist Check that are not included
Tax Free munis are not included
Help from Mom and Dad or any other govt agency in buying house is not included
Many homeowners buy an expensive house and have an accessory apartment off the books that is tax free income and makes the house affordable.
Tons of people have off the books income, cab drivers, waitresses etc.
The only thing that matters is the total gross income (regardless of if it is taxable) of people in the market to buy a home. That is the X times income I am interested in.
The way they do it currently is kinds like a rolls royce dealer saying based on average taxable income in the town my dealership is located it appears rolls royces are unaffordable. Who cares.
Re: Post 12,
I was being sarcastic and inquisitive at the same time. I’m to believe that the new model is affordibility shall be based on 7X income. Perhaps in a couple of years from now it will be 10X income. Sounds feasible. If you can’t afford it, move. Right?
12.125 (87)-
“The problem is that so many here are against that whole idea and we have to worry about what they may be teaching their children and grandchildren.”
All we have to worry about is you reproducing.
92 reinvestor
“If we can handle things in that manner, everything can remain peaceful.”
sounds like a threat.
Hey Richard, maybe you can get contact info for bi and reinvestor, and the three of you can start an investment club!
$500,000 for a paper-plywood house. USA houses are of very inferior structural quality. I know that the houses are surrounded by great public facilities (highways, stores, schools, etc), but themselves they represent very little value. A house that can be eaten by insects in so rich country?!?!?!
Homer (91)-
Your argument is going nowhere. You’re basically trying to remove the factor of location from the equation. As long as you keep viewing RE as a commodity, you won’t get the proper read.
And all RE is, is location, location, location.
Can anybody explain why the foreclosures in Camden and Newark were less worrisome than in middle class areas?
I thought I saw another article yesterday that explained why foreclosures would be worse in lower income areas.
PGC (119)-
No. I’d just find another agent who’s willing to write the offer.
(126) In-patient
“You call folks on here jihadists and traitors and anti american and 25 other assorted insults and you wonder why we all think you’re an a-hole?”
I’ve never called anyone here 25 names and you can’t prove that. That’s a lie. I’m going to start posting on Ben Jones’ blog. There are no in-patients over there telling lies on me.
RE: Wow you actually think that when stocks goes down Wall Street Loses, look up the definition of a hedge fund, the whole point is it is hedged, look at stock exchanges and non prop desk retail brokers they work on order flow, the more jumpy the market the more it makes, Goldman has shorted the ABX and subprime markets and makes out. The whole concept of the stock market is that the seller is betting stock is going down and buyer is betting stock is going up, either way someone loses. Now we are staring to see some paramutual type trading systems on wall street and in that there are no one to one winners and losers, kinda like the race track. My company bet right and is having a blow out year, Lehman, Goldman etc. Merrills losses are someone else gains.
The retail investors who live out in the hicks by you lose. They only go long and when stocks crash they all lose, the hedged manager is smoking a stogie out in East Hampton while the pork belly farmer in the midwest saw his paper haircutted 40%.
Homer Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
There is such a big huff puff about stocks..to me I enjoy when stocks are in the red, makes me feel good to know the greedy people on wall street are doing a bad job :)
133 shore
I don’t know about any hocus pocus in local NJ RE law, but I can tell you with certainty that if you were in the analogous situation of a plaintiff in a lawsuit, and the defendent offered to settle at $X, and your attorney decided not to bother telling you about the offer because it was “too low”, your attorney would be disbarred.
Maybe real estate is different, though.
Shore (123)-
Even a listing agent. In fact, NJ RE statute directs listing agents to discourage potential buyers from entering into dual agency arrangements. In the eyes of the law, dual agency is an unusual practice that is allowed (given proper disclosure), but not encouraged.
“The way they do it currently is kinds like a rolls royce dealer saying based on average taxable income in the town my dealership is located it appears rolls royces are unaffordable. Who cares.”
If we are to posit that a home is a luxury good and only a small percentage of the population should own one, then the Rolls Royce analogy works just fine.
“I’ve never called anyone here 25 names and you can’t prove that.”
I don’t need to prove it. Anyone who’s reading the blog today alone is fully aware of the regularity of your personal invective, and even personal threats.
You keep promising to leave, and yet here you are.
patient (139)-
bi, reech and 12.125:
http://i.imdb.com/Photos/Mptv/1207/5268_0013.jpg
Huh? Sounds like Ahmadinejad is back posting again from Tehran
# SF Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
$500,000 for a paper-plywood house. USA houses are of very inferior structural quality. I know that the houses are surrounded by great public facilities (highways, stores, schools, etc), but themselves they represent very little value. A house that can be eaten by insects in so rich country?!?!?!
Grim,
Thanks. I drove by it today. Wowza. Its on a cul-de-sac near the top of the hill in Mountainside on the way toward Summit. Its still a lttle to rich for my 1 income family, but its hard to believe its even in dreaming range. I gotta get the kid (and one on the way) big paper routes.
Homey’s invective seems to have gone from populist to s0c!alist in tone.
don’t laugh, but this is from the Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice
of the National Association of REALTORS®
“Standard of Practice 1-7
When acting as listing brokers, REALTORS® shall continue to submit to the seller/landlord all offers and counter-offers until closing or execution of a lease unless the seller/landlord has waived this obligation in writing.”
njpatient 154,
LOL!!!
I said don’t laugh!!!!
Clotpoll Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 1:48 pm
12.125 (87)-
“The problem is that so many here are against that whole idea and we have to worry about what they may be teaching their children and grandchildren.”
All we have to worry about is you reproducing.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Good one!
#136, John your are making quite a few assumptions, which apply to a fairly small percentage of people…aka the bankers like you.
People are selling a prior home and banking up to 250K profit without it hitting the tax return
Not the guy trying to buy his first home.
Many homeowners buy an expensive house and have an accessory apartment off the books that is tax free income and makes the house affordable.
Dare I suggest this only to some of the investment banking crowd in Manhattan.
Tons of people have off the books income, cab drivers, waitresses etc.
That full-time income is not enough to buy a POS these days. For argument’s sake, even if they do it part-time to complement another job, it’s not going to get them into a house.
Tax Free munis are not included
The interest from tax free munis will barely add to gross income, unless the guy has half a million bucks in a muni money market for his downpayment…highly unlikely.
My 1.5 cents…adjusted for inflation.
Bullspit! You continue to lie on me and I don’t have to take it, but I’m not about to get my hands dirty dealing with you. I have someone who can deal with you.
Kettle, since you’re fond of using cat of nine tails, why don’t you get together with in-patient here and give him a beatdown?
That will teach you to mess with me buddy. Homey don’t play dat.
njpatient Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
“I’ve never called anyone here 25 names and you can’t prove that.”
I don’t need to prove it. Anyone who’s reading the blog today alone is fully aware of the regularity of your personal invective, and even personal threats.
You keep promising to leave, and yet here you are.
He is an ex-mortgage trader, that is perfect.
Thain joined the NYSE after a 25-year career at Goldman Sachs. He climbed the ranks as a mortgage bond trader to ultimately become president of the biggest U.S. securities firm by market value.
“People hope that he would be a good position to get his arms around the risk,” said Adam Compton, an analyst who helps manage $150 billion at RCM Capital Management in San Francisco, which owned about 700,000 Merrill shares at the end of September. “He comes from Goldman, a shop where they sort of invented the business model of proprietary risk-taking within an investment bank.”
patient-
There is nothing- either in statute or in the NAR Code of Ethics- that requires an agent to write an offer. An agent who refuses to write an offer has simply either declined to enter into an agency agreement with the potential buyer…or has terminated an existing agency agreement by refusing to write an offer. Agents have every right to pick and choose whom they represent and when they will write offers. Many agents use terrible judgment in declining to write offers, but there’s noting illegal or unethical in doing so.
Once an offer is in writing, then it must be put in front of the seller and may not be withheld (unless the seller, per NAR COE 1-7, has waived that obligation in writing).
#159
How many reinvestor101 are there? The original seemed genuinely upset about other’s “beliefs” on the local RE market.
But this latest one must be a spoof. Dated references from an early 90’s skit? Though he’s not believable, at least he’s a better writer and much more entertaining.
Rich
A home is not a God Given Right! Many European countries have low ownership rates and do just fine. Low income people should rent, buy an inexpensive coop or townhouse or stay at home with Mom and Pop till they are married. It is these people who for a large part are the ones that drove RE prices through the roof. Most foreclosures are caused by people who bought a house when they should have rented. And to boot a seller only sells to the highest bidder so these dopes artificially inflated prices in 2005 and 2006. My last property I sold had the highest non subprime bidder bid 500K the next few subprime bidders drove it to 550K and I sold, those dopes were not only paying high interest they added 50K on to the house. Let put all those subprime people on a long boat to china to hyper inflate their market and make it crash even quicker. Newday had a foreclosure special this week and some single mother of two with a 30K income had a 400K double digit mortgage!!! Her response to why she took was the mortgage broker said I could afford it.
njpatient Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
“The way they do it currently is kinds like a rolls royce dealer saying based on average taxable income in the town my dealership is located it appears rolls royces are unaffordable. Who cares.”
If we are to posit that a home is a luxury good and only a small percentage of the population should own one, then the Rolls Royce analogy works just fine.
To Mike NJ,
1. I don’t even know where Tehran is.
2. The problem: paying 30 years of your life for something that can be eaten by insect. What does “Tehran” have to do with it?
# Mike NJ Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
Huh? Sounds like Ahmadinejad is back posting again from Tehran
# SF Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
$500,000 for a paper-plywood house. USA houses are of very inferior structural quality. I know that the houses are surrounded by great public facilities (highways, stores, schools, etc), but themselves they represent very little value. A house that can be eaten by insects in so rich country?!?!?!
NAR Code of Ethics
Is that an oxymoron?
#164
It is the way you wrote your entry. It sounded fanatical. Almost like the president of Iran. A properly maintained house will last for well over 100 years (insects and all). You can build your house out of concrete, stone, whatever, but it will cost you. In most places you are paying for the land, not the house. A house is worth what it costs to build it, nothing more. The land is what makes up the majority of my property value.
#52
Bought in 1996 for 2x income with 20% down. Was never given an option for anything else. We would never have considered buying any other way because it would have been too risky. Now what we considered risky is “the norm.”
John
Is that synonymous with plagiarizing, racist dirtbag?
Radical one,
There is only one Reinvestor101 and I’m the same one who has been here all along.
Just because I may say things to cause you to chuckle does not take away from my basic premise that real estate is a good long term investment that you guys fail to appreciate.
Rich In NNJ Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
#159
How many reinvestor101 are there? The original seemed genuinely upset about other’s “beliefs” on the local RE market.
But this latest one must be a spoof. Dated references from an early 90’s skit? Though he’s not believable, at least he’s a better writer and much more entertaining.
Rich
RE Investor,
I heard a rumor that housing Al Qada Jihadists were posing as real estate investors on financial martyrdom missions. Their mission was to buy houses using EZ credit financing, only to later purposely let these houses go into foreclosure, thus “bombing” the “comps” in any neighborhood where they carried out their dastardly deed. To maximumize the damage, they strapped themselves with zero down option ARMs. Any home within several blocks of an exploding Option-ARM will see their equity evaporate into thin air.
161 Clot
Got it – thanks.
“Just because I may say things to cause you to chuckle does not take away from my basic premise that real estate is a good long term investment that you guys fail to appreciate.”
At the moment, it’s the real estate investment that’s failing to appreciate…
john, I didn’t say homeownership was a right. quite the opposite, I think the goal of high saturation of homeownershp contributed to our current problem. However, I think the historical US homeownership rate (a little over 50%) is fine.
Comparing that to the rate of Rolls Royce ownership is a bit silly.
Cute, real cute and creative Radical One.
For once, I find myself at a loss for words.
RentinginNJ Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
RE Investor,
I heard a rumor that housing Al Qada Jihadists were posing as real estate investors on financial martyrdom missions. Their mission was to buy houses using EZ credit financing, only to later purposely let these houses go into foreclosure, thus “bombing” the “comps” in any neighborhood where they carried out their dastardly deed. To maximumize the damage, they strapped themselves with zero down option ARMs. Any home within several blocks of an exploding Option-ARM will see their equity evaporate into thin air.
reinvestor101 Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
Bullspit! You continue to lie on me and I don’t have to take it, but I’m not about to get my hands dirty dealing with you. I have someone who can deal with you.
Kettle, since you’re fond of using cat of nine tails, why don’t you get together with in-patient here and give him a beatdown?
That will teach you to mess with me buddy. Homey don’t play dat.
……. i think we all lose an IQ point every time we read one of Investors posts… must stop reading…..
“Just because I may say things to cause you to chuckle does not take away from my basic premise that real estate is a good long term investment that you guys fail to appreciate.”
so reInvestor101 views real estate as a good investment. Unfortunately like all investments, the value of the investment fluctuates. Sometimes a stock goes up and other times a stock goes down. Why is it that when RE prices go down it’s the communists conspiring to ruin it for the patriotic majority. But, when a stock goes down, it is just a bad day on Wall Street?
You are a crybaby. Nothing more and nothing less.
As for real estate being a good investment? It sure was for those who bought and sold it at the right time, just like any other investment.
Perhaps if you bought a home for its other intended purpose, to provide shelter. You might not be whining so much?
Yes Doyle I want to be ignorant just like you and blame other people for my mistakes. I want to be impatient cross over double yellow lines. I want to do 90mph to the red light. I want to sit on a bus or a train everyday for 1-2 hours each way. Hey I am just trying to be like you doyle I am trying to be ignorant.
So its ok for you to be ignorant and blame everyone else for your issues, but when someone talks smack about commuters, they must be jealous or eveous.
Again there that ignorance I was talking about.
I had a wonderful commute today. I was asked to deboard my NJT train since it had 3 flat wheels.
i observed that more and more companies allow their employees work from home one or two days a week. does anyboday here see the same? maybe this explains why $100 oil did not bring much shock to local economy.
While average salary as a measure of homebuying potential may be flawed because it includes a low-end that simply cannot afford to buy, we have to remember that the average home price also includes a low-end of properties, that are likely not habitable and are unlikely to sell at any price. I don’t know if the averages are especially telling, but I don’t think they’re entirely meaningless.
Regarding commuters etc…
I think some people here are missing the point. We live in and function as part of a human ecosystem that is made up of commuters, non commuters and everything inbetween. The way our society functions is no different then the african savanna. We have created an economic/environmental/social frame work over time and as different niches become more or less available people will move from one niche to another.
Until we decide to start building real life arcologies, large urban centers will always support a substantial commuter pool. The real point of substance to discuss is how do we manage the commuter population to maximize efficiency in both both time and energy terms, how to we maximize then rate of transport into and out of the city while minimizing cost and travel time?
Homer Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
Yes Doyle I want to be ignorant just like you and blame other people for my mistakes. I want to be impatient cross over double yellow lines. I want to do 90mph to the red light. I want to sit on a bus or a train everyday for 1-2 hours each way.
________________________________________________
Of course, some commuters have 1-2 hours commutes entirely within the state of NJ; indeed, some of them make that 1-2 hour commute in own cars. I’m just curious as to why that’s better.
Homeskillet,
Who did I blame, and what for? You’re losing it my man… Nobody said you were envious of commuters, it seems to me it is anything to do with $ or Wall Street.
And I don’t seem to be the only one who thinks you’ve lost it… It’s pretty tough for RE Bear to take abuse on this site.
Speaks volumes.
You’re basically trying to remove the factor of location from the equation.
I am trying to remove the fact that many people could care less about the commute to NYC. I live in NJ and work here as to thousands of ohters. All that tells me is they are trying to justify over pricing a house. Again assuming everyone want to live close to NYC is ignorant.
“maybe this explains why $100 oil did not bring much shock to local economy.”
Maybe a better explanation is the evolution of our economy from an industrial society to a service economy. The rest of the world does not seem to be shocked by the price. In their currencies, crude is actually cheap.
Seeking Alpha:
More Dominoes to Fall in the Housing Market?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/54134-more-dominoes-to-fall-in-the-housing-market
REinvestor101,
Hah! Radical One!! Hah!!!
“Give me a dollar.”
It looks like the great recovery is over bi!!!
Homer Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
I am trying to remove the fact that many people could care less about the commute to NYC.
The correct way of saying this is “I COULDN’T care less.”
“bi Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
i observed that more and more companies allow their employees work from home one or two days a week. does anyboday here see the same?”
No.
189 Yankee
Thank you and G*d bless.
I love it when RE bears start to turn inward and fight among themselves. Everybody get Homer.
(Homer, that’s what you get for being on the emperor’s side.)
Yankee Gal Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 4:00 pm
Homer Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
I am trying to remove the fact that many people could care less about the commute to NYC.
The correct way of saying this is “I COULDN’T care less.”
#182
BubbleYum,
It’s not, but Homer hates you anyway. You are preventing him from purchasing an affordable house.
Please immediately stop trying to make a living. Take the job down the street from you, regardless of your potential income. I don’t care if your career does not exist in NJ, just take a job, any job.
Clot,
Question about dual agency – as a FTHB for a POS back in August ’04, the agent disclosed that he was the buyer’s agent but after our bid was accepted he crossed “buyer’s agent” off the contract and circled “dual agent”. He said it was a mistake (the seller’s agent was with Weichert also). Is this spilt milk or is there real damage here? I always wondered. I have been told that it is hard to prove damage in these cases. We paid a significant amount over our initial asking but under the appraisal.
i observed that more and more companies allow their employees work from home one or two days a week. does anyboday here see the same?”
I wish!!!
Homer,
I don’t mean to be intrusive but want to chime in about your posts since yesterday. Life is a bunch of trade offs. Be it commuting a long distance for bigger bucks, or a small distance for lesser bucks. Everyone has a choice and I don’t think it’s fair to generalize/ criticize people for the decision they choose to make. No one is putting a gun to their head to work or commute crazy hours….just like no one put a gun to someone’s head to buy a McMansion.
Similarly, it would not be right for me to say that driving a Ford Focus station wagon would be approx $400 lighter per month on the wallet (that adds 7% to your gross annual income) in place of your Ford Expedition, right? In your case, the devil is in the driveway.
“I love it when RE bears start to turn inward and fight among themselves. Everybody get Homer.”
50.5,
Better yet. How about when buyers bid your property up 50k over asking. Don’t you just love RE bulls fighting amongst themselves.
“Better yet. How about when buyers bid your property up 50k over asking. Don’t you just love RE bulls fighting amongst themselves.’
Those were the days!!
Now, all the RE bulls like bi and reinvestor are trying to sell!
Sell!! Sell!!!!!!
“CNBC just told me that Riverside had 1 foreclosure for every 43 homes.”
WOW could be 200 foreclosures in a single Condo building in Miami.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1246626320071113
$100 dollar oil to someone who owns a mcmansion in colorado and drives his pick-up truck 100 miles a day is a big deal. To Joe Blow in NY who drives 2 miles a day to the train station and lives in a little tiny cape oil is not a big deal. Plus someone in NJ making 150K a year paying 300 a month for gas has 1/3 the impact to his wallet as someone on Florida making 50K paying 300 a month. In fact oil and housing are both meaningless to me. It is all about the Benjamins and it we all get a sack of coal come bonus time the shit will hit the fan.
Why does everyone assume that we all want to be close to NYC and we all make 6 figure salaries. You act like there are no jobs in NJ. There are plenty. But since many of them do not pay 6 figures than they must be crappy jobs. Again theres that ignorance I was talking about. So I guess I work a flakey job….But wait the company I work for moved out of NYC. So I do the same job in NJ that was done when it was in NY. And wait… For pure kicks I looked at the same types of jobs in NYC that I do and wait I make the same. Gee I guess I am the dummy since I do not commute to the city and sit on a dingy bus just to make the same amount of money in the city as I do in NJ.
Gotta love ignoance, its Jersey so it must not pay well.
Yeah,
Those banks and financial firms are done with their write downs.
Most arms have not yet reset and the recession has not yet hit the wires. It will, and some people are going to lose their jobs and they’re gonna default on their old credit card and on their home payments and then the banks are gonna have more write downs and then bi is gonna call a bottom for the 27th time and my SRS will be at 150 and reinvestor is still gonna be blaming me.
Homer….the living wage here if you buy a home is six figures….and beyond…anything less and I cannot see how people manage. It is Pricey here. I think that is what people are saying here. Too pricey I might add.
Homer, you’re very lucky that you are in a line of work where you can go outside NYC and find work that pays just as well.
That is simply not true for me and for many on this board.
Thats similar jobs in NJ pay 40% of what I get paid in NYC doesn’t make them “crappy”, it just makes them lower paying jobs. I think it would be great if I could get paid anywhere near what I do now and live a stone’s throw from home. I can’t. I have no idea why this causes you to holler “ignorance” at us, and it certainly doesn’t make true your gross generalizatoin that “everyone assume that we all want to be close to NYC and we all make 6 figure salaries.” Quite frankly, I don’t particularly want to be near NYC anymore, and in fact I don’t want to be in NJ either. When I give up my NYC job, I’ll most likely move out of the region entirely.
Ford Focus station wagon would be approx $400 lighter per month on the wallet (that adds 7% to your gross annual income) in place of your Ford Expedition,.
I looked at all sort of vehicles but with twins, a double stroller for the boys (bigger than you’d expect) and 2 big dogs the Expedition worked for what we needed. I also has a mid size SUV Rodeo and we can fit me the wife the 2 boys,diaper bag and double stroller. We can put some thins in the back but the dogs would not fit. We take the dogs with us a lot. If I could get something smaller I would. But it also bennifits I work 10 min from home and the wife stays home with the boys so we dont have to drive the expedition a lot. We fill it about 2 times a month.
So its no that hard on the wallet
#203
What stu said.
The RE industry talked up proximity to NYC, the st*pid b*stards sucked it up and wanted to feel important and fit in. Jersey always had a separate indentity. For years, anybody from NY looked at Jersey and laughed. It started with the “Hoboken” thing, which was way overrated then and it still is now. The real Hoboken was a couple of dive bars, Fiores, Biggies, the Clam Broth house, one or two others and that was about it.
Then it spread out to a 25 mile radius and all of a sudden, we were “New Yawk-is”. Right. So the “proximity to NY” thing and “commuting” thing became just another sales pitch line from the house tour guide industry and became the De Facto slogan. Hello. Just like the “easy” commute from Stroudsburg to NYC touted by LTS builders and others. Sure.
What was that line Bobby D said in Casino ? “All the glitz, glitter and comps… designed for one thing, to get your money.” Ain’t it the truth.
“To Joe Blow in NY who drives 2 miles a day to the train station and lives in a little tiny cape oil is not a big deal.”
John [201],
Since it’s not a big deal, why don’t you write a check for $1,500 to help Joe B pay for the increase in his heating oil bill this winter. After all, it’s all about the Benjamins. By the way, make sure that fan is not operating in reverse.
Homes (184)-
You must not be getting enough sleep.
Homes in commuter towns command a premium, because the supply/demand makes it so. There is no “they” who arbitrarily set those prices and somehow manage to enforce them through the use of smoke and mirrors.
Were there no potential buyers who see value in living in a commuter town, prices would adjust accordingly.
As a flipside to that, many RE agents who puff on and on about the “easy NYC commute” of towns in Warren and Sussex Counties generally get nowhere with it. The only proof you need is in the prices.
206 Way Homer
funny post for a moralist.
Gary…please try not to sound completely retarded….and i use that rarely on this board….
most of my neighbors grew up in NYC and continue to work in the city…others….like living and working here and consider NJ a green and placid paradise compared to the concrete jungle of NYC…..yeah they are completely different places….but not every New Yorker views life in NJ as a defeat…..geezus.
Essex,
I grew up in Hudson County. The mere inkling of a comparison to New York, including the boroughs, was like throwing the devil into a vat of holy water.
bystander (194)-
You were subject to an undisclosed dual agency, one of the most serious offenses under NJ statute.
If you have a copy of the contract, you have tangible proof of the improper or nonexistent disclosure. Additionally, if you didn’t sign a consent to dual agency, that’s another arrow in your quiver.
Licensees who initiate undisclosed dual agencies are subject to a range of punishments, including forfeiture of the entire commission by the offending brokerage.
If you feel you were damaged, you might want to consult an attorney. What happened in your situation sounds sorta skeezy.
Perhaps you have ‘baggage’ my friend.
in gary’s defense, I’d say that when I was growing up in they city, I heard an awful lot of Jersey jokes. That being said, as I get older, this bit – “consider NJ a green and placid paradise compared to the concrete jungle of NYC” – describes me.
the city…
He just needs to get a hottie to keep from getting too cold. Actually, he can easily get a part time job or better invest his money or trim costs elsewhere. If he was so concerned he should have locked in his per gallon rate pre-run up. But if he is just an average joe blow his household income is 100K so that is just 1.5% of his salary. He can easily sell his jet tickets for close to that since their season is toast anyhow.
I put the efficient portable oil heater to heat the bedrooms and have turned down the heat and stopped driving as much and I am watching the electricity. Plus Joe Blow should work some OT and keep the heat down while at work.
BC Bob Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Since it’s not a big deal, why don’t you write a check for $1,500 to help Joe B pay for the increase in his heating oil bill this winter. After all, it’s all about the Benjamins. By the way, make sure that fan is not operating in reverse.
Just quickly went through some of today’s posts,and man it was ugly in here today!!
Homer– The reality is that by living where you live, you are competing with people who will pay more to have convenient access to NYC. You should see this as your advantage. These people need to be near NYC. You do not and consequently have the option to live in many beautiful places that would be impracticable for NYC commuters. Bucks County and the Poconos come to mind…
Get Homer!! Get him and get him good.
He must learn the wrath of the Dark Side. He will come to appreciate being of the side of those who favor real estate.
Homer wants everyone to stop working in NYC so they can afford less house in NJ, reinvestor. He must hate America.
Homer just needs to pimp his wife Marge out at the quickiemart so he can keep bart and lisa toasty warm.
Ditto with #219.
Piles of anger.
Blame it on the weather, like NAR.
#61 “neighbors with jalopies on blocks.” Remember, if you have a car that doesn’t run sitting in your driveway, you’re ordinary. If you have a car up on cinder blocks in the yard, you’re common. If you have PIECES of a car in the yard, you’re trash. Just a little advice for those considering a move south. Nuances can be so tricky.
The Last Laugh: British comedians John Bird and John Fortune take on alter egos in this satirical interview on the subprime mortgage mess. VIDEO
Essex,
It’s a moxie thing. It has nothing to do with me… um… forget it.
I’m just busting your chops again….I don’t get out much.
Homer,
I just know you didn’t say that. You ingrate. After everything this country has done for you, you have the nerve to hate America? It’s time to call out the big dogs on you. A few lashes with the cat ‘o nines should give you an attitude adjustment.
Kettle, get him and be sure to drawn blood!
njpatient Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
Homer wants everyone to stop working in NYC so they can afford less house in NJ, reinvestor. He must hate America.
It goes with the bustin’ chops theme on this board today. ;)
3b (219)-
My kind of fun.
Predictions of the demise of bond insurers could be premature, particularly if they succeed in securing lifelines from a deep-pocketed insurance salesman in Omaha, Neb.
Re-insurance from Buffett would knock one of the pegs from the stool that the bears were standing on in their hysterical laced Armageddon they’ve envisioned for the stock market. Remember two years ago, when no-one wanted to write any hurricane insurance? Mr. Buffett stepped up to the plate. How did that bet pay off? The idea that Buffett is looking to be a lifeline to the reinsurance industry indicates that severe overpricing of risk currently exists in the marketplace and these assets are being under-valued at today’s prices. Blackstone yesterday, said that sub-prime was particularly interesting at these levels
“What happened in your situation sounds sorta skeezy.”
Clot,
Considering I run training classes all the time I think it was more along the lines of not knowing they were dual agent on a office listing based on the there thought “it was’nt his/her listing”. I get this all the time, this is a common mistake, as is not showing up for the training classes.
KL
sorry about all the typos/spelling issues in Post 233
BTW house crash is finally starting in the UK, prices are down and retail is down big time.
chicagofinance Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
chicago pizza? How about Harold’s?
__________
Ahh the infamous Chicken Shack! I recall in my Hyde Park days, in the summer of 95 or so (nice weather=more crime), someone walked up to the bullet proof glass, pulled a gun …. and when the cashier (obviously not trusting the glass – would you??) began frantically to pull money from the ’till, the thief screamed “I don’t want money- just give me some of those drumsticks!”
After receiving his order, he was then on his way.
Truth is stranger than fiction, when it comes to the south side.
“This summer’s credit squeeze prompted an unprecedented tightening in lending standards at major banks. As credit standards toughened, demand for loans also fell, the Fed reported Nov. 5, providing some fresh details on the fallout from the credit crunch.”
“Residential mortgages were harder to get than at any time in the 17-year history of the Fed’s survey of banks’ senior loan officers, the Fed said. The survey covers 52 domestic banks and 22 foreign banks, which together account for a majority of bank lending in the country.”
“Credit standards tightened for borrowers with the best credit, with 41% of banks requiring prime borrowers to jump over a higher bar before receiving mortgages. That’s the biggest increase in tightening standards ever recorded. In the July survey, just 15% of banks reported higher standards for prime borrowers.”
http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_mw.aspx?cp-documentid=5697915>1=10632
Exaclty my point. People assume to live in NJ you have to work in NY. Gee why arent houses selling. Gee not many people moving to far out places. Now its mostly Jersey workers looking for homes. As many people that commute there is still more of my kind here. And yes I must hate my country cause I dont want to commute. God forbid I want to work in the state I live in. I must be such an idiot according to reinvestor. But hey thats ok. Keep that ignorant train of thought going.
Especially clot thinking everyone wants to have easy commute to NYC. Other than BC most people that want to live in somerset, hunterdon, mercer etc work in this state. I know many people looking for houses, but wait they all work here in NJ.
But I am the ignorant one for saying not everyone wants to work in NYC.
Whats even more amusing is it makes not sense to live in NJ for commuters. I have looked at houses in rockland county and I have seen houses same prices as BC county and property tax the same if not less than NJ.
And since I do not like NYC I am not american. NYC is not america. I don’t like CA so oh no I am not american. So since I do not like certain things I dont like my country. Because I dislike greed and corruption which is on wall street I dont like my country. Since I do not like the corruption in NYC I am a bad person.
Well isn’t that just a hypocritcal statement.
Everyone on here complains about NJ corruption but many companies in NYC are corrupt but since they pay good its ok, but NJ government being corrupt is bad. To me its seems like people talking against, only talk down at things if it takes money away from them, but its ok just if they pay you good. And because I think people are ignronant as Doyle, reinvestor and clot are I am envios. Good comeback
Again my point there is that ignorance I was reffering to once again portrayed.
And no I am not reffering to every company in NYC
ChiTowns’ best southside BARBq……LEMS.
Hi all,
Has anyone used either rentalstoreusa (dot) com or easyrent (dot) com? They both are all over craigslist, offer small broker fees ($100-$15) and offer good rental deals.
What’s the catch? Do they use a bait-and-switch?
From CNN:
Uh-oh. It’s Enron all over again
http://tinyurl.com/yso8tv
you know things are going down hill when the MSM is jumping on the bandwagon
Clot & rhymingrealtor #223,
I still have the signed contract that shows that he signed to be a buyer’s agent after our bid was accepted. He sent a one pager with buyer crossed out afterwards. We ended up paying 23K more than what he thought the place would go for.
Clot,
When you say they could forfeit the commission, does that me forfeit to me??
Thanks.
OT but you need to read this, very interesting stuff on the trade deficit and the devlauing dollar, by Buffet
America’s Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling The Nation Out From Under Us. Here’s A Way To Fix The Problem–And We Need To Do It Now.
By Warren E. Buffett Carol J. Loomis
http://tinyurl.com/2klxb3
Renting,
I was just reading this once again.
You terrorist dirtbag. You heard a rumor? How do you know so much about this unless you were involved doing it? There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that you participated in this crap.
You know, I’m getting damned tired of trying to talk some sense into folks around here.
Kettle, get him!
RentinginNJ Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
RE Investor,
I heard a rumor that housing Al Qada Jihadists were posing as real estate investors on financial martyrdom missions. Their mission was to buy houses using EZ credit financing, only to later purposely let these houses go into foreclosure, thus “bombing” the “comps” in any neighborhood where they carried out their dastardly deed. To maximumize the damage, they strapped themselves with zero down option ARMs. Any home within several blocks of an exploding Option-ARM will see their equity evaporate into thin air.
Reinvestor apparently you have not been paying attention. I am currently leading one of the jihadist sleeper cells in northern NJ. I believe i saw Renting at a few of the training classes at an undisclosed location somewhere in the middleeast!
232 RR, it’s not subprime. The hand rubbing and drooling is for Alt A, babe.
Bystander,
I am still going to go with my original thought of ignorance. Most often deals don’t make it to the brokers desk until they are signed and ready to go into attorney review. It was probaly at that time the mistake was picked up, however ignorance does not excuse the agent or the brokerage, when the mistake was made it should have been brought to your attention and you should have been informed and allowed to make your decision to go forward based on the real agency relationship.
As far as the action you can take now, I am not sure, a call to your attorney could’nt hurt.
KL
#244, Kettle
Currently, I am officially on Parole status, was just fingerprinted and am undergoing an FBI background check…no kidding. Will you allow me into your club?
BLB, you ever go track down the contributors pushing for delay on 157?
The calculators did learn their lesson, BTW.
Fear of god.
http://www.fasb.org/news/nr111407.shtml
Why is this being ignored? These bastards “broke the buck” at what would have only cost them only $200M. Something seriously screwy is afoot….
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119499399633791914.html?mod=b_hpp_9_0002_b_online_exclusives_right
Definitely sketchy- heard CNBC chatter only reason anyone can think of for not stepping up, is that there could be a lot more behind it… either way you slice it, someone over there made a horrendous client/PR decision to let this one drop.
Truly hoping it’s not the first of the lot, we could end up with serious panic.
I’ve been hearing institutional clients with $500mil+ in funds just saying the hell with it, moving even from pretty secure money mkts (e.g. no SIV/ABS exposure) into treasury funds….
Have a check in the mail,out of my money market.
Looks like I was out in front on this one.Get safe & lay low till its over.
OT..has anyone ever had their Windows profile corrupted?
Is there any way to repair besides creating a new profile and copying everything?
I keep copying something that’s messing me up maybe nt*.*s?
Pat Sorry my computer expert went to bed.(my son)Sure he could have helped.
hey clot maybe you should work at not acting like such an arrogant know it all prick. the anonymous blog world has really done wonders for your tiny voice.
Thanks, Mike. I’m having fun spinning my wheels. I’m too old for this.
For once, my husband gets to tell me “I told you so, I told you to write down those 52 passwords.”
Pat You & me both when he leaves for college I’m in trouble.
bystander (241)-
Not sure. The statute is vague. Might possibly have to give some to the seller.
Reech (254)-
“…hey clot maybe you should work at not acting like such an arrogant know it all prick. the anonymous blog world has really done wonders for your tiny voice.”
Not nearly as much as moving to Brigadoon has done for your tenuous self-esteem.
Go play in Rt 22 and get hit by a truck. Since you’re in Brigadoon, it should be a Mercedes truck.