From the Herald News:
Blogger at home exposing market
By Heather Haddon
(Leslie Barbaro/Herald News)James Bednar’s first and only attempt at buying a house transformed the 31-year-old software programmer into a real estate guru.
In 2005, Bednar and his wife would circle listings for homes they liked in Montclair, only for an agent at the open house to tell them a $450,000 house actually cost $700,000. When he searched for previous sale figures, Bednar came up empty.
“The real estate industry had such a stranglehold on the data,” said Bednar, a lifelong Clifton resident born to Polish immigrants. “I didn’t think anyone called the pricing in North Jersey correctly.”
So, Bednar launched the New Jersey Real Estate Report, a blog dissecting the local market through insider reports, pricing data and news stories. Since then, the site has grown from a few dozen viewers to 3 million page hits a year.
Some real estate agents cursed Bednar for shining light on their industry. They refuted his calls about a looming housing decline. “Puleez, is it doomtime yet?” asked an anonymous poster on the blog in January 2006. “Only a fool would follow your logic.”
But for better or worse, the blog helped shake up real estate in New Jersey by providing a baseline of what local properties should cost.
“There’s no equivalent,” said Jordan Celkupa, a financial planner in Red Bank and former stock manager, who checks the blog several times a day. “Almost instantly, you have fly-on-the-wall data from the best resources in the country, but locally focused.”
In the past, real estate groups have come under fire for withholding their pricing information. Buyers can conduct limited on-line searches of Realtor listings, but individual listings don’t paint a picture of a local market. Bednar hoped to change that.
Not one to do something half-heartedly, Bednar took real estate classes and paid for his license. He spent $3,000 for a year’s access to industry publications and Realtor memberships. At 5 a.m. every day, he would start combing through Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal for stories relevant to New Jersey.
His readers vary from first-time home buyers confused about the market to chattering Wall Street bond traders and investors in multimillion dollar properties. The simple beige site attracts readers from as far away as California, Bednar said.
“I can say without a hint of hesitation that he’s probably saved us close to $200,000,” said Jill Zeiger, a physician from Ho-Ho-Kus, who held off from purchasing a property at the height of the housing bubble.
Before the subprime mortgage bubble burst, Bednar found few reports confirming New Jersey’s market had become inflated. Still, he urged renters to wait by positing specific cases when buyers had undercut sellers, like a $300,000 house in Clifton going for $250,000.
He generated a graph showing that current prices had risen 10 times more than previous housing bubbles, when indexed by inflation.
Naysayers criticized Bednar’s caution. But his warnings proved undeniable in 2006, when housing sales in Passaic County plunged by 20 percent. Hits to the site reached 500,000 by mid-year as prices swung wildly.
“It’s priceless,” said Paul Collins, a 38-year-old computer system operator who sold his Jersey City condo last February through advice on the blog.
Real estate has morphed from an irritation to Bednar’s obsession. He manages to blog all day from an arsenal of laptops while still working full-time. He only vacations in places with wireless Internet. Recently, he enrolled at Montclair State University part-time to get a MBA in finance.
“My wife hates it,” Bednar said about the blog. “It’s a consuming thing.”
Last year, Bednar even started taking on a few real estate clients. He hopes to add more this year. As for his own living situation, Bednar says he is content to rent.
Nice. Good picture, too. You look like (and sound like) a real estate superhero! All that’s missing is the cape :p
Congrats :)
That many hits? Amazing.
Jeez, you could be selling WAY more advertising. You appear to be a very modest guy, and to have a lot of personal integrity — which partly explains this site’s appeal. Can’t speak for us all, but certainly, for example, I wouldn’t bregrudge having to click through an ad to get to the comments fora. Heck, I’d click ads on your page just to reward you for your hard work.
Or maybe the self-professed zillionaires here, like Shore and Make, could drop a few five-figure tips into the jar….
But, really, why is this site so ad-free? To borrow a phrase from our state’s governor, “monetize!” A network like Blogads would obviate conflict-of-interest issues.
Bednar is a real estate shill!!!
congrats.
amazing to see this blog grow.
Real Estate still has a long decline ahead of it and NJ will be the next Detroit, Michigan over the next few years.
Have fun!
SAS
NJ will be the next Detroit, Michigan over the next few years.
Who else believes this?
Great article! You really should put ads up, although not anything real estate related, as that could mess with your street cred.
5 sync
I don’t. Everyone I know is doing pretty well overall.
Fantastic!
Well deserved recognition, Jim !
This is my favorite blog.
Johnny B – longtime lurker & ’07 Tara meet/greet attendee.
Great job Grim!
Dear Realtors,
Read it and weep. This young man has reached rock star status and has trounced every one of the NARs fake, lame attempts at respectibility with an avalanche of data.
The majority of you and the strong arm organization you pay homage to are a bunch of frauds.
Great photo!
It does indeed have a ruggedly handsome Christoper Reeve-as-Superman quality to it :)
…and yet, it’s mysterious, in shadow … :)
Great job JB!!!, can you take on the NJ teachers union next?
“NJ will be the next Detroit, Michigan over the next few years.
Who else believes this?”
many people.
the writing is on the wall.
Actually, I think more like the early stages of the Argentine economic crisis.
SAS
sas, if you believe it, I’m sure there are many others who do. What I wanted to know is who else on this blog believes it. “Like Detroit” is pretty severe and I don’t see it. But then again, I’m not the expert, you are.
maybe Detroit was a exageration on my part ; )
However, this state is heading toward deep trouble, and the landscape is going to change.
if you review Argentine crisis, its early staegs are shocking similar to NJ & the rest of the states.
I hope I’m wrong.
SAS
SAS
Jesus Frank do you ever stop?
I love the pic!! Congrats and so many thanks for all you have done to educate and provide a forum for all to learn!
Kudos, “gratulacje” and “Dziekuje”
sl
who is Frank?
Great article, Grim..Great job…
Kudos from California!
syncmaster,
I do think we should keep our eyes on the chinese peg to the dollar.
I think the high gold prices & lowering dollar value is putting alot of pressure on the peg.
If that peg goes under major adjustments…
Its goodnight for alot of us.
To remedy, this country (NJ included), needs to get out of debt, and fix budgets. But, I really don’t see that happening.
SAS
also helps to reduce the trade deficit.
That why I always say:
“I don’t buy made in China” & “avoid WalMart”.
SAS
Who’s Jesus Frank?
OK, I know Jordan thingy is Chi (thought you were in Middletown) but who are the other two?????
Enquiring minds want to know.
Plus, having been around a long time (is it a couple of years now?) I feel very wise for having found you early.
ChiFi,
I am not sure that selling in Hoboken in 2005 was a wise move, I did it and prices went up 50% since then. I lost 100K.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortgages/celkupafamily.asp
Grim
Did you pick a gtg date yet?
Congrats! You certainly helped me convince the one at home that needed to be convinced. A close relative once said we would never buy a house if we waited for prices to drop.
Anyways good luck.
Some wise person once told me…
The secret of success is to find a need and fill it.
“Some wise person once told me…
The secret of success is to find a need and fill it”
no offense, but thats old news.
What do you think the medical/pharma industrial complex does?
What do you think the top 2 things they teach you in marketing?
1) Create a need and fill it.
2) Don’t cannabilize your market.
;)
SAS
Sorry #29…I didn’t know that.
I’ve never had a marketing class.
I’ve been teaching second graders for 25 years.
I just felt Grim exemplified that saying..he saw a need and he filled it.
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, raising rival Hillary Clinton by $5 billion, offered a $75 billion economic stimulus plan that includes tax cuts and government spending to stave off a possible recession.
The proposal, released today as Obama campaigns in Nevada, includes an immediate $250 tax cut for most Americans, an extra $250 Social Security payment for low-income senior citizens and $10 billion to help people facing home foreclosures.
he he sorry..
I’m in bad mood.
Colts just lost.
;)
SAS
“Barack Obama”
and how we going to pay for this plan? where is the money going to come from?
oh yeah, the printing press.
if you think food is exspensive now… ha…just wait.
SAS
Congrats grim! Nice article and of course nice site. I’m still trying to get through the mountain of past info on here. Although I have ties to NJ, I haven’t lived there since I was young so I actually read your blog from Nashville everyday. Thank you!
Have to admit that I also check the blog a couple of times a day. Great job and congrats on the recognition.
Congrats JB. Had no idea you were that young. As a fellow blogger, i laughed at your wife’s thoughts on the blog.
I second the ads thing.
Cool! The blog is mightier than the market.
#35
Only a couple of times a day? I think I’m going to wear out the F5 key on my work keyboard.
Regarding font size…
while holding down the “control” key use the scroll wheel on your mouse and scroll up or down to increase or decrease font size.
this will work on most web pages
Yea Grim! Congrats from Atlanta! Great photo!
Congrats Grim.
Thanks, kettle.
Anybody need a 7″x10″ magnifying glass?
#42
You can roast a lot of ants with that thing!
You go Grim. You the man. You’re my hero. With press like that, you’re gonna be rich someday, probably soon.
Okay, Corzine, here’s a better plan
Posted by Paul Mulshine January 13, 2008 6:37AM
Categories: Policy Watch
In announcing that massive borrowing plan the other day, Gov. Jon Corzine challenged anyone who has a better plan to put it on the table.
This is an old trick. I saw Jim McGreevey twice try the same stunt in the same chamber. Corzine’s language was more colorful, however.
“Pigs will fly over the Statehouse before there is a realistic level of new taxes or spending cuts that can fix this mess,” Corzine said.
Well, prepare those porkers for takeoff. I’ve got a better plan.
In his State of the State, Corzine cited three major problems that would be solved by the biggest borrowing scheme by any state in American history. Let me deal with them in order.
The first problem is widening the toll roads. This is not quite as extravagant a project as Corzine makes it out to be. The areas where both the Parkway and the Turnpike need to be widened are in the southern part of the state and are not highly developed. The expense need not be prohibitive.
If the work is done efficiently, it could be financed by raising the one-way tolls on the Parkway to $1 and the Turnpike tolls by an equivalent amount. That would produce annual income of about $300 million, which should be sufficient to pay off the bonds for the widening. This of course assumes the Democrats forgo the option of looting the road-widening projects the way they looted the school-construction projects. But it’s up to Corzine to keep that fleet of pigs grounded. Problem solved.
Next there’s the problem of fix ing the other roads and bridges around the state. In his speech, Corzine said the Transportation Trust Fund will go broke in 2011. He didn’t say whose fault that is: his. One of the first things Corzine did upon taking office in 2006 was to push payments for the trust fund into the future through a slick bonding maneuver similar to the stunt he wants to try with the tolls.
Like most politicians, Corzine wanted to spend money without raising taxes, in this case the gas tax. He still does. But his plan represents triple taxation of toll-road users. They already pay twice. Their tolls pay for the road they’re using. The tax on the gas they’re burning pays for the roads that other drivers are using. And now Corzine wants to hike their tolls once more, again to fund roads that other drivers are using.
A fairer and more efficient way of raising that money is through the gas tax. New Jersey has one of the lowest gas tax rates in the nation. We could double our gas tax and it would still be lower than the tax in Pennsylvania and New York. Do that right away and we’ll have a big reserve for the trust fund by 2011.
Corzine has one excellent idea for adding to the fund. He wants the state to collect concession fees from businesses at rest areas, those same rest areas the state has been closing down. This is prohibited by federal law thanks to lobbyists for the truck-stop owners. But if all the governors who are now lobbying to impose new tolls on freeways would instead lobby for the right to put concessions on Interstate highways, drivers would save a lot of dough and also have convenient places to stop. Another problem solved.
That leaves just one problem, the so-called “structural deficit” in the state budget. And that brings up a question: Why am I even discussing this in a column about toll roads? It’s those pigs again. If they could only keep their snouts out of the Trenton trough, there would be no deficit. But the pols have awarded themselves and their employees retirement packages far more generous than in private in dustry. The rising cost of these benefits creates a recurring deficit of $2.5 billion to $3 billion a year.
That, coincidentally enough, is roughly what the state pays out each year in property tax rebates. So cancel the rebates. They’re a relic of the disco era. Back in 1976, when the first income tax was passed, the state suddenly had $900 million in new revenue, a huge amount at the time. Almost half of that was surplus, so Gov. Brendan Byrne initiated rebates to get it back to the taxpayers and get him self re-elected.
Governors have been buying votes with rebates ever since. But there hasn’t been a surplus in this century. No surplus, no rebates. That’s another problem solved.
That leaves just one more problem: Once he levels with the public, how does Corzine get re-elected?
I don’t have a plan for that. But when it comes to Corzine’s borrowing scheme, he’s asking the taxpayers to buy a pig in a poke.
Congrats to the dashing real estate blog king.
I’ve been lurking here since Little Silvered left us shore people high and dry with the Jersey Shore Bubble Blog. I still wonder what happened to “Mr. Rant” who insisted in 2006 that LBI prices would NEVER come down.
Bravo, Grim! Well deserved and I suspect your page hits will reach ml-implode.com
proportions. (thats not a shameless plug for another site just an example of viral marketing at its best).
G-O. G-I-A-N-T-S!
Not a Jints fan, but there’s nothing more satisfying in American sports than watching Jerry Jones lose.
Congrats! You deserve it. If it weren’t for this blog, my hubby and I would have bought at the height of the bubble. Our bank accounts thank you. You’re dedication has at least saved this family for sure, no doubt countless others who don’t post comments.
Keep up the great work.
Actually, I refi’d my 5-yr adjustable (it would have adjusted in 2008) last year due to advice I got on this blog. I was thinking about it but this blog pushed me to it.
So thanks everybody!
not that grim is famous, he should buy this to get around town.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/The-last-Concept-Sky-Commuter-aircraft-in-Existence_W0QQcmdZViewItemQQcategoryZ26428QQihZ012QQitemZ220188946461QQrdZ1QQsspagenameZWDVW
oops, i meant to write “now that grim is famous”.
52
That is cool!
I guess we’re gonna need an arena for the get-a-gether.
What about the long term implications of massive toll increases? How many businesses will leave, how many resident will leave, how many potential businesses/residents will be scared away by exhorbinant tolls?
Nice article, congrats Grim!
Am catching up on a week’s of comments. Am off to India on Wednesday and hope to get some further insight on what the Indians think of the Tata Nano launch. Stu, thanks for the tidbits on India!
BCBob, I am dreading what buying power the USD will have in India when I shop. My only solace is that I can go pick up some more gold nuggets.
“How many businesses will leave, how many resident will leave, how many potential businesses/residents will be scared away by exhorbinant tolls?”
Zero.
Heather Haddon, those were some nice comments in a good article about J.B. and his blog. J.B. deserves this recognition.
“What about the long term implications of massive toll increases? How many businesses will leave, how many resident will leave, how many potential businesses/residents will be scared away by exhorbinant tolls?”
That along with higher and higher gas prices. Look for people to really slow there driving. Less traffic, less economic activity.
Its going to be all factors: transportation prices, high taxes, falling RE prices, slow to no job growth, its all coming together and setting up for a big ugly.
SAS
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50d659d2-c1f3-11dc-8fba-0000779fd2ac.html
Congratulations Grim, it’s time for you to enjoy some fruits of your hard work.
Great job, keep it up.
JB-
Great article and thanks for saving me a great deal as well and giving me ammunition with to refute the former legion of “buy now, real estate only goes up!”
Many, many thanks,
JM
BC Bob,
From the Associated Press: Now Tony and Jessica can go wherever they like because the Giants just sent the Cowboys packing.
I make 190K and can’t afford a house I want in North NJ. I’m one of only 5% people in the US who make more that 190K and can’t afford a house.
This is nothing but a bubble. Come back next year and the prices will be minimum 25% Down. This blog helped me back-out from an offer in 2005. Now the house is worth 20% less. If I can’t afford a house, Not sure who can ??
grim: You stink. To make matters worse, you actually shaved for the photo, and my wife is smitten. “You never told me he was good looking.” Hey honey, I have only certain standards…tech guy…he showers, wears cologne, and brushes his teeth. Anything else and I am playing with house money.
BTW – WTF is a “stock manager”? It sounds like a clerk at the A&P.
oops…
WSJ
High-End Cards Fall From Grace Rising Delinquencies on Charges Lead Banks to Curb Generous Terms As Profits Look Shaky
By ROBIN SIDEL AND DAVID ENRICH
January 14, 2008
The luster on all those silver, gold and platinum credit cards is getting tarnished.
For the past few years, banks that issue credit cards have aggressively wooed affluent customers with lavish perks and fat credit lines. Now, that high-end strategy is coming back to bite the banks: There are growing signs that some of those consumers are having a hard time paying their bills.
It is the latest in a series of woes for U.S. financial institutions, which are struggling to contain a series of credit-related problems after years of strong profits. Banks have lost billions of dollars from soured home loans and mortgage-related investments. And defaults on commercial and industrial loans could rise later this year if the economy weakens further.
Investors and analysts will get an in-depth look at the credit-card problem this week when Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. — two of the biggest U.S. issuers of plastic — report fourth-quarter results. Both are expected to set aside hundreds of millions of dollars to cover mounting losses on credit cards and other consumer loans.
Bank of America Corp., which bought card company MBNA Corp. a few years ago, is scheduled to report results next week.
Bank profits have been pumped up in recent years by historically low levels in credit-card delinquencies and write-offs. Those levels had widely been expected to rise with the economic slowdown. The concerns intensified Thursday, when American Express Co. said it had experienced a sudden and broad-based rise in delinquencies in December.
Although Capital One Financial Corp. had also warned about growing problem loans, the AmEx development was viewed as even worse news for the industry because AmEx is well-regarded widely for its creditworthy customer base and sophisticated risk-management capabilities.
“This isn’t an AmEx issue, it’s an industry issue. We have started to see a spillover from the mortgage market and the weaker economy into credit cards,” said Christopher Brendler, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus in Baltimore.
A slowdown in overall credit-card growth during the past few years sent banks chasing high-end customers. The upscale cards — which offer amenities such as concierge services and access to popular events — pump up profits in good times because they carry higher fees for customers as well as merchants who pay banks a percentage on each transaction.
[edit]
grim Says:
January 13th, 2008 at 8:07 am
From the APP:
Desperation tends to focus the mind. If your retirement date is still decades away, it’s tempting to tap your 401(k) plan for emergency cash. Nearly 20 percent of companies reported an increase in loans and hardship withdrawals from 401(k) plans during the fourth quarter, according to a survey of corporate executives and chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO magazine. The most common reason: to make mortgage payments.
grim: I mentioned this issue a few months ago. Please bear this factor in mind, because it is going to taint and warp all of the reported income numbers for 2007/2008, and also screw up tax receipts (higher/stronger than predicted).
As a result, in the coming months you need to read beyond the headlines in economic data reporting as the weakness in the economy and consumer unfolds.
Ultimately, you can quickly indentify when a talking head is merely and -chuckle-head or grandstander, versus someone with true insight.
I expect the Roubinator to be all over this one.
Nice, I didnt realize you were that close to my age.
The statistics by income bracket helped me the most. 200K = less than 5% made me put some of my area into perspective.
Thanks
# 2 Jamey Says: Or maybe the self-professed zillionaires here, like Shore…
Jamey,
As I have said on many occasions, rich does not begion until $10 million and I am not rich.
# 12 “scribe Says:
January 13th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Great photo!
It does indeed have a ruggedly handsome Christoper Reeve-as-Superman quality to it :)
…and yet, it’s mysterious, in shadow … :)”
Scribe,
Should we leave you two alone for a bit? :-)
72, “begin,” even
Damn people……………..how about these stats…………649,000 American households wroth $10m or more…..a 300% jump since 1992.
Worth…I can’t even type it with my middle class fat fingers.
…I forgot to thank All Hype, too….
for pointing me in the direction of this blog!
Hey All Hype: Thank You, Buddy!!
sl
dreamtheaterr
Where in India are you going?
And don’t worry about the change in the value of the dollar as it relates to buying in rupees. As long as you are purchasing domestically made goods, you get somewhere in between 5 and 10 times the value. I purchased some gifts for my wife that would have been about $400 in the United States. I think I paid $45 for them. You can get very high quality shirts for $9 – $12. Shoes for $5 to $10, etc. Jewelry is dirt cheap and food is next to nothing. Everyday, I purchase a coffee and a vegeburger for lunch at the food court in the IT building I am working at. Combined, it is 50 rupees. That works out to under $2, and the food court prices are high. If I was bold enough to make the same purchase on the street, I might be able to get it for 40 cents or so. Beer and alcohol are cheap. On the back of the bottles, it reads, “Liquor destroy home, country and family.” Pretty blunt eh?
Well have fun when you are over here and definitely get out of the city for a while.
By the way, you will get to experience the Pongol festival. Don’t let the traffic on Friday and Saturday fool you. Everyone in the country travels to get together with family on these two days and I have been told that the roads stand still. On other days they only stand still during rush hour. Have a safe trip over. If you have any energy left on Friday night, I would be willing to get together and buy you dinner if you are heading to Chennai. Let me know.
Hey remember when I was the only comment one day !! But must admit http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com is still my first stop.
From the WSJ:
Countrywide Draws Ire of Judges
Questions About Practices
Arise in Bankruptcy Cases;
Possible Liabilities for BofA
By AMIR EFRATI and KARA SCANNELL
January 14, 2008; Page A3
More federal bankruptcy judges are calling into question the business practices of Countrywide Financial Corp., as Bank of America Corp. prepares to buy the ailing mortgage lender.
According to court documents in a bankruptcy case in Houston, Countrywide didn’t properly credit a borrower’s payments made during bankruptcy but instead applied them to prebankruptcy debt, which isn’t allowed. In the same case, involving a debtor named William Allen Parsley, Countrywide represented to the court that Mr. Parsley owed fees that turned out to be unsubstantiated and in error. These included an improper $450 fee and a $65 unsubstantiated fee.
During a hearing last month, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Jeff Bohm chastised Countrywide and its lawyers after the company admitted making numerous errors in the case. “How many times do I have to listen to that before I conclude, ‘You know, there’s got to be some kind of reckoning’ when I keep hearing time after time, ‘we made a mistake, we made a mistake, we made a mistake, we made a mistake?'” Judge Bohm said. He is considering sanctions against the company.
From Bloomberg:
Sears Says Sales Fell During Holiday-Shopping Season
by investor Edward Lampert, said U.S. sales fell at its namesake and Kmart retail chains by about 3.5 percent in the nine-week holiday shopping season ended Jan. 5, citing increased competition and a weak economy.
The shares fell 12 percent in early U.S. trading.
…
Same-store sales at the Sears locations fell 2.8 percent, and declined 4.2 percent at Kmart, as customers bought fewer tools and clothing. Gross margin, or the percent of sales after the cost of goods sold, fell 2 percentage points, the company said.
Goldman, Sachs & Co. downgraded Sears Holdings to “sell” from “neutral,” citing a consumer-led recession in the U.S. economy.
From the FT (hat tip CR):
This is not merely a subprime crisis
this had been a mere subprime crisis, it would now be over. But it is not, and nor will it be over soon. The reason is that several other pockets of the credit market are also vulnerable. Credit cards are one such segment, similar in size to the subprime market. Another is credit default swaps, relatively modern financial instruments that allow bondholders to insure against default. Those who such sell such protection receive a quarterly premium, based on a percentage of the amount insured.
Mahwah Comp Killer
5201 Rio Vista Drive, Mahwah NJ
Purchased: 4/6/2006
Purchase Price: $495,000
MLS# 2740162
Current Asking Price: $474,900
DOM: 103
From MarketWatch:
Citigroup write-offs could reach $24 billion: report
Citigroup may write off up to $24 billion over subprime- and credit-related losses, putting as many as 20,000 jobs at risk, according to a published report on Monday.
From Bloomberg:
Wall Street’s $35 Billion Writedown Puts Squeeze on ’08 Profits
Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Merrill Lynch & Co. may report their worst-ever quarter, beset by $35 billion of writedowns that threaten to crimp profit through 2008.
The losses have depleted the banks’ capital, forcing New York-based Citigroup and Merrill to seek more than $13 billion from foreign investors, and hobbled their ability to make new loans. Other sources of fees, including credit cards, are also in jeopardy as the U.S. economy slows, said CreditSights Inc. analyst David Hendler, who estimates Citigroup, Bank of America and Merrill won’t earn more this year than they did in 2006.
“The banks are already operating like they’re in a recession,” by ratcheting back on trading and lending, said Adam Compton, who helps oversee $150 billion at San Francisco- based RCM Capital, which holds shares of Citigroup, Bank of America and Merrill. “Everybody has tightened up tremendously.”
Citigroup may report a fourth-quarter loss tomorrow of $4 billion, the first for the largest U.S. bank since its commercial real estate holdings plummeted in value during the early 1990s, according to a survey of 8 analysts by Bloomberg. The company also may announce that it received a new cash infusion of as much as $10 billion from investors in China and the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported on Jan. 11, citing people familiar with the matter.
Merrill, the world’s biggest brokerage, probably will post a loss of $3.23 billion on Jan. 17, topping the record $2.24 billion loss reported in the third quarter, Stan O’Neal’s last as chief executive officer, analysts estimate.
AWSSSSOOOOOME story ..its about time someone tell the truth about “pumped up” areas by realtors!!!
GOOD LUCK!!!!
how does one reach James??? I am looking to by thsi spring!!!
Re Credit Default Swaps,
The Economist said JP Morgan were huge in that area. Will be interesting to watch their stock as the unwind continues.
Jim/JB/Grim
That’s a great article once again, your hard work is being reconized. I’ll go no further with the compliments because I’ll sound like Chi’s wife. A group of swooning women might go to your head.
KL
Congrats on the MSM recognition for your hard work! Great job! Grim for President! (On the independent ticket, I hope.)
#7 Ann:Everyone I know is doing pretty well overall.
Until you find out they are not.
GREAT WORK – I want to see your face on SQUAK BOX tommorrow morning. You are now a celeb go out and get the glory!!!
Congratulations grim, well deserved, but you are now probably public enemny number one for most north Jersey Realtors.
Grim Congrats on your long over due recognition.
89 3b
From what I see, at least here in NJ, everyone I know is working and in decent jobs, and I’m not just talking about fancy jobs, but all sorts of jobs requiring all different skill levels. And they live accordingly to what they can afford.
I still believe that NJ is a place of much opportunity and will continue to be. I’ve seen economically-depressed places where there is literally no work and NJ is not one of them.
Grim,
Do you get a lot of lurkers who don’t post? I was just wondering if you could tell that from your stats? For example, do you think you get a lot of realtors who read but don’t post?
65 SM
You make 190K and you can’t afford a house? I’m curious, what is your definition of house? That seems like a nice income to me.
Also, to chime in with everyone else, this blog definitely helped me sell recently (by making me understand what market we were dealing with and pricing aggressively).
And for the house we just bought, we were confident in putting in a much lower offer than what they were asking for because of what I read here.
Random thoughts from this weekend discussion. I don’t get this whole kosher thing, pretty sure Jesus was jewish don’t recall him looking for a big K on his wine bottle.
Re over the top weddings. I once went to a 500 person wedding at the Huntington Town House. (Super rich Orthadox Jews). Had a big curtain down the middle where one side all the orthadox women sat and the other side all the orthdox men and gentiles sat. Well I had a very pretty blonde girlfriend at the time and she knew girl from college, Othodox girl was to be married at 18 but got to put it off to 21 cuase she got a degree. Well waitress tells me she is instructed to get me anything I want. I tell her even if you don’t have it, she says YES. She is instucted to send people to stores if necessary, so for fun I tell her take the flowers our our flower vase, take it to kitchen and clean it and then fill it to the top with Jagermeister and bring it back. Well she starts to do it and I tell her I am joking but she tells me if she does not do the guests wishes she will be fired. So back it comes and I get all the orhtodx guys at my tables totally lubed up. Next thing I know they are holding the groom up on the chair to peak over curtain and they almost drop him from a good ten fee up!!! We also smoked some top notch cigars and I wathced a few orthodox guyes try to nail my girlfriend. GOOD TIME
Anyhow so the grooms dad gets up there and says I would like to thank the father of the bride for paying and hosting the fabulous wedding, then he says he has a gift for the 21 year old bride and groom and they wheel out a wedding cake in the shape of a beautiful mansion. Then the father of the groom hands the bride a set of keys and says the cake is an exact replica of the mansion he bought then in Five Towns long island as a wedding gift. NOW I AM IMPRESSED. Then the father of the bride snaps his fingers and a second cake appears in the shape of a Mercedes SL convertible. He hands the groom the keys and said it was his gift for joining the family!!
That wedding beat the hell out of the white horse.
RE I make 190K and can’t afford a house I want in North NJ. I’m one of only 5% people in the US who make more that 190K and can’t afford a house.
Me neither, on that salary I can’t even afford milk or a post Y2k car!!!
190K can be a great salary, but if you are a family where both husband and wife work and you are paying child care that is barely scrapping by.
Also 190K i an yearly salary. The good nieghborhoods have lots of people who get 190K bonus in January, so you are working whole year just to make their what they already made by Feb 1st, that can be a bit depressing.
I figure a really nice house you need 900K downpayment and 350K income for a starter mansion.
#92 Ann: Oh I know, but soemtimes looke can be very deceiving.
i found this out over the weekend with an acquaitenance that my wife and I know.
On the surface everything looks fine, great house, nice cars, and yet they always appeared to be level headed.
After speaking to them this weekend, we find ou they are right on the edge, of financial disaster.
These are long time hoem owners, with grown children, I never would have susopected they had any serious problems.
Grim,
Even though you sensor me from time to time I still want to congrat youfor a well run site and an excellent source of info for any home buyer.
MM
#98 The good nieghborhoods have lots of people who get 190K bonus in January, so you are working whole year just to make their what they already made by Feb 1st, that can be a bit depressing.
Not as many of those 190k bonus’s this eyar as last, and even in the good times on the strre that number has always been exagerated.
Congrats on the article Grim!
It looks like the staff photog at the Herald News reads Strobist too.
#94 – Ann – If this site is like most others than the vast majority of Grim’s traffic is from lurkers.
From Reuters:
Sovereign Bancorp to take $1.58 billion charge
Sovereign Bancorp Inc, the second-largest U.S. savings and loan, said on Monday it expects to take $1.58 billion in fourth-quarter charges, hurt by worsening credit quality and a tough mortgage environment.
Great article, and well deserved recognition, Grim!
John Says:
January 14th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Random thoughts from this weekend discussion.
JJ: Hangin’ with the 47th Street ‘hood is always better than advertised…..it gives new meaning to “black box”…..
It looks like the staff photog at the Herald News reads Strobist too.
The flash was hidden behind the screen of the laptop, resting on the keyboard.
If Citibank lays off 20,000, who will buy all those awesome houses on the “Gold Coast?”
#106 – Off camera flash is a lot of fun to play around with and you can get some amazing results.
#108 … how about the subtle jab at doctored- up real estate photos with those power lines emanating from JB’s head?
http://weblogs.newsday.com/realestate/blog/2008/01/glen_cove_house_is_still_on_th.html
Now here is a house that I wonder how far off 2005 highs will it sell for?
107,
All of the recent business school grads with rich parents will by them. Their precious little snow flakes who are just waiting for their big break need a “reasonable” place to live…
As quarry nears end of life, Bernards ponders future
BERNARDS — The Millington Quarry could be fertile ground for a housing development.
The 190-acre Stonehouse Road site is the largest buildable swath of land left in the township, which less than a decade ago was in the midst of a housing boom.
Now, township officials are awaiting the quarry’s reclamation plan — detailing its plans for the land, said Mayor John Carpenter and Township Committeewoman Mary Pavlini, who served as mayor in 2007.
…
The most recent plan submitted to the township proposed to build 41 single-family homes on the property, which will be confined by a large lake in the mined-out pit…
Congrats Grim! You can’t buy such great publicity!
I benefitted from the blog the other way. I needed to sell last spring and, after reading the blog, dropped my price 20% and got the deed done in about 60 days. Now the similar houses that were asking more than I did are still on the market with asking prices under what I got!
BTW, more than 5 months after the closing of my sale, the buyers still have not moved in. They’ve told my former neighbors that they think they will get more for the house they are selling if they don’t tip off potential buyers that they have already bought. They’re in a nice suburb on the NY train, but will some one really pay $900K-ish for 1 bathroom and 1-car garage on a busy street???
SM #65
I make 190K and can’t afford a house I want in North NJ.
Maybe you should want what you can actually afford.
I am giving my staff their full bonus this year. So is Goldman and Chase. Chase gave out an interesting bonus. Several older people who are high earners and make most of income on bonus were told last week at Chase that to be nice they got 100% bonus this year but they are accruing zero for their next years bonus so they have plenty of time to get out.
startingoverinNJ – maybe. I hear those Citi employees are doing real well.
#115 john: goldman cut back their bonus pool dramatically for non-income generating areas of the firm (IT, back office, administration).
So if they did, I have to believe most other firms did as well.
http://weblogs.newsday.com/realestate/blog/2008/01/retake_this_photo_please_84.html
Priceless – RE web picture with clearly visable bug bombs!
Great article–congrats, grim, and thanks for all the useful information!
#1113 but will some one really pay $900K-ish for 1 bathroom and 1-car garage on a busy street???
Not any more, those days are over.
NO true, that was NY Post Gossip. My friend is a manager in ops and handed out clerks checks herself to 30 AVP and down to clerks.
3b Says:
January 14th, 2008 at 9:43 am
#115 john: goldman cut back their bonus pool dramatically for non-income generating areas of the firm (IT, back office, administration).
99 3b
I agree, there is a lot of overspending and unwise money management going on.
But as far as job opportunities, NJ is still better than most other places in the U.S., and even the world.
#121 john: Interesting thats not what i heard form the couple of people I know who still work there.
Either way, this year is the end of the big bonus moeny for the next few years.
#4 and 5: Yes, I believe that NJ is the next Michigan. I’ve mentioned such at my blog recently.
Hey, Jordan/Chi, I worked at Kwasha Lipton when you did and I think we met a few times (I was in voice response/IT group).
Nice article, JB.
Jill #124
Yes, I believe that NJ is the next Michigan. I’ve mentioned such at my blog recently.
You mentioned it at your blog?
Well, then. I guess it must be true.
congratulations grim –
this blog has helped me a ton too.
i started reading it when i still lived in boston. the market there was still on fire, and everything seemed so nuts, but everywhere i turned there were articles on how you can’t lose in real estate, and people bragging about how much money they made on their houses. i felt it couldn’t last, (i lived through the last one, and saw how ugly it can get – even in prime manhattan locations)
but i felt like i was the only one in the world who felt this way. by the way, i didn’t even realized that the nar was a lobby group/cheerleader for realtors. i assumed that they were housing analysts.
anyway, i knew i was going to move to nj, and i wanted a feel for the market here. i stumbled across this blog, and was shocked – i finally found people who were confirming what i thought all along – it really helped me to hold my ground in the face of everyone telling me to buy – even well meaning family members. now, the pressure to buy is much less intense.
i can’t say for sure, but it’s possible that without the ammunition from this sight, i may have caved under pressure (from everyone!), and bought a house when i moved here i’m sure i would have been underwater at least 100K, and been in a house i was not really happy with.
so thanks.
jim,
congratulations.
your blog and the housing bubble blog were one of the first on the scene to call the top.
thanks for your effort and input. good luck on your future endeavors.
-best
Congratulations on well deserved recognition!
Stu, I am from chennai. Not sure if you know the area well. If you don’t, try the buffett at Saravana Bhavan the one near the US consulate. Excellent food for around $4-5.
Shore, #71
I’m old enough to be Grim’s mother :)
What I was commenting on – They showed some creativity vs. a standard head shot.
Most newspapers would just plug in a head shot – cheap, fast, and easy.
scribe #130,
Agreed. It really is a good shot.
JB,
Cool
Did you gather a consensus on a date and place for the “get-together”?
Rich
[77] Roy G Biv Says:
Roy, gotta say I love your name…
Grim,
You cutie, you! I was expecting someone much more “older” and “dour” looking.
No wonder why your wife is missing you…!
Congrats on the publicity, and ditto on the ads.
grim, #78
The most interesting part of that WSJ story:
Countrywide Draws Ire of Judges
is here:
Countrywide says it has incurred at least $400,000 in costs associated with the case after having its employees deposed by the U.S. Trustee Program, a division of the Justice Department that oversees the bankruptcy system. The agency has been investigating the company’s handling of loan payments and court claims in cases across the country.
In Miami, Bankruptcy Judge A. Jay Cristol last month approved a U.S. trustee’s requests to subpoena and depose Countrywide to obtain information about how it made mistakes in a case. Initially, the company claimed in court that the borrower would need to pay $4,800 a month for a mortgage during bankruptcy. But after the borrower objected, Countrywide said it had erred and reduced its claim to about $2,400 a month. In a hearing in December, Judge Cristol said Countrywide had been found “with its hand in the cookie jar.”
Sounds like a very major case is brewing at the Federal level.
Rich,
Morristown 2/2 or 2/9.
We’ll likely do a Gold Coast meet in early spring.
Jill,
#124, #125
what is your blog?? Kwasha Lipton I used to work in Fort Lee office, what office where you in?
Grim,
Please make it 2/9. Please!! I can’t make it on 2/2. Does anyone object?
Congratulations, and Thank you.
As SAS said, it’s been great to see this blog grow.
I don’t want to get all sappy here, but this blog made real (regarding real estate) what people were hoping the internet would be. It is a place where people are able to get information and hash out the reality of their world in a way that lets them make informed choices on important decisions.
That is far easier said then done.
Also, the comments contributors, particularly SAS, Chifi, Stu, RhymingRealtor, Clot, Richie, Skeptic and plenty of others I’m leaving out, also help make this site as good as it is, so thanks to them too.
I still miss booyaa Bob though.
SAS
i believe that you called this out over the weekend…
China is quietly revaluing its currency
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=D0TNOELNQPCIFQFIQMFCFF4AVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/08/bcnyuan.xml
please 2/9!!
sl
i vote 2/9
Ok guys, no more compliments.
Corzine signed the “Internet Dating Safety Act” in to law today.
Since we don’t conduct criminal background checks, we can no longer allow any type of flirtatious behavior here.
I think I started visiting this blog in fall of 2005 from a link from thehousingbubbleblog.
Big difference between this blog and that one was the relative lack of crazies. After reading thehousingbubbleblog for a while, I would feel a bit off, like I’d been reading about some doomsday cult.
I know some people say the same thing about this site, but it really was always very reasonable and very, very credible by bubble blog standards.
Obviously, this blog grew out of the bubble blog genre a long time ago. The credit for this goes to JB, since he provides real data and analysis and has seen the big picture regarding real estate from the very beginning.
I saw Barbara Corcoran on the Today show this morning and her first piece of advice for people trying to sell their homes was “cut the price.” It is very gratifying to see what was once a fringe concept become so mainstream and even conventional wisdom. This great article recognizing JB and all of his hard work is another step in that direction.
Congrats
On another note, they were so busy passing the “Internet Dating Safety Act”, that they didn’t have time to fix property taxes.
Corzine says they’ll try to get to it, but they’re furiously working on banning fried chicken, making it unlawful to use your iPod while bicycling, and most importantly, banning cycling while listening to an iPod and eating fried chicken.
Property taxes will just have to wait, more pressing issues are at hand.
CITI to right off 24bil 17-24 thou lay off.
CNBC Charlie G.
I’d prefer 2/2 as I have a prior engagement in “The City” at Felidia’s.
But if not I’ll attend the “Gold Coast” get together in Hoboken via train.
Unless of course it’s March 1, 8, or 15 as I’ll be attending a adult beverage (trying to avoid moderation) seminar on those nights.
So for those following along that leaves March 22 & 29.
Hmmm, can I make this post anymore about me?
I think so. I, I, I, I…
Rich
JB, Congrats.
As 2008 is upon us, I would am going to go out on a limb and make a 2007 prediction. I bet, dollars/not gold, that JB did not cover his costs for this blog. If I am right, it truly is a shame.
I subscribe to different financial sites. Many don’t come close to the information that is provided here. It is simply a wealth of information at your fingertips. There are a ton of brilliant people on this site. Sometimes, I truly shake my head in amazement. You couldn’t pay for the information that is sliced and diced, on this site. There is nobody else that offers it.
In addition to web hosting, JB has exhausted all avenues by joining the local, regional and national realtors assoc.. This was done to better serve the blog community. I have no idea what this all costs. I haven’t discussed this with him. However, my gut tells me that he is in the red. Just call it traders intuition.
If I am correct, he may be hiding these losses off balance sheet. New accounting rules may require that he move these losses back. If that is the case, the shareholders [Jayne and his dog] may be livid. Also, this only pertains to his costs. I would not even begin to calculate the cost for his time, though the shareholders may?
All of us are an important part of the most successful and #1, at least to me, RE blog on the market today, truly prime. It would be disgraceful if it was supported strictly by subprime bloggers.
Make a push to ensure that JB is in the black for 2008, by the get together. If anybody agrees with me, please keep this topic moving throughout this site for at least the next week. If you don’t agree, we can bring it up for discussion at the get together.
JB, Thanks for all the hard work you put into this.
What I really don’t understand is A-2976/S-3009, regarding “headstone theft”.
Is headstone theft really a problem in NJ?
Are people stealing marble and granite headstones and turning them into countertops?
I don’t know about you, but I feel much safer knowing that headstone thieves will be facing penalties as high as $1,000 per headstone.
Congratulations Grim!!!!
Well deserved recognition. This blog is VERY helpful and the knowledge of ‘mostly’ everyone who contributes is worth noting.
Congratulations grim, well deserved, but you are now probably public enemny number one for most north Jersey Realtors.
I disagree, some of us just swoooooon over him.
KL
kl (150)-
The truth should never cause a market-maker to get angry or seek retribution. Guess what? RE info is now ubiquitous…just the way it should be.
We Realtors are never going to move forward and start cleaning up this mess until we see it for what it is.
Better we get busy than spend our time making enemy lists.
Grim,
Congrats on the article, cutie pie.
And thanks for your efforts, sugar plum.
I’ve saved $ from reading your site, sugar.
(the internet law is officially broken)
From the AP:
FBR’s Mortgage Lender to Liquidate
Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc.’s mortgage lending arm, First NLC Financial Services LLC, will file for bankruptcy protection and plans to liquidate because demand among investors for home loans has vanished, the investment bank said Monday.
…
FNLC’s business model was to issue “subprime” mortgages, or home loans to people with spotty credit histories, and sell the loans to banks and institutional investors. As banks reassessed their stomachs for risk last year, demand for subprime home loans drained from the market and lenders like FNLC could not sell their loans.
148 – re: Theft
Thieves stole candle holder from my family’s grave on 3 separate occasions. I complained to management, to which they replied, “I’m sorry”. At $29.00 a pop, some people feel compelled to steal from the dead.
Congratulations James Bednar aka Grim!
I have been a “lurker” since spring ’06. Posted a few times but you decided to ban me. It was your website that helped me avoid buying a house in summer ’06. I sold my house in Chester County, PA in spring ’06 and moved to NJ. I wanted to buy a house soon. I disliked your cautionary statements, but I am glad that I did not purchase. Due to M&A activities, I was transferred to Orange County, NY and just recently made my way back to NJ.
No doubt- NJ real estate is very expensive but I have always enjoyed the professional opportunities NJ has to offer. If NJ goes through real estate “pain,” it definitely would signal severe recession for our country.
I am planning to rent in the gold coast for a while. I was surprised to find that I can rent a condo for $2700 instead of buying for $675,000. I simply don’t see the logic in buying at there prices.
#151 clot:Better we get busy than spend our time making enemy lists.
I agree, but you are probably one of the exceptions, and certainly not the rule.
However, that being said, it will be the reason why when after all the dust settles, your office will still be in business, and many more will have folded.
BC (147)-
Ditto the sentiment. The tangible dollar savings so many posters are reporting is reason enough for all of us to do what’s needed to keep this site running in the black.
Heck, I’m on the dark side, and just the stats alone here make it worth my time. I just send all my agents the links, and my work is done.
All who attend the events should make it a point to come having donated…or with donation in hand.
Anyone have info on NJMLS #2707533?
I find it hard to believe that this grandiose McMansion started life at $550k!
How do you make a donation to njrereport.com?
Re #73:
Essex,
649K sure sounds like a big number, except it’s about 1/2 of 1% of the total number of households.
Also, $10M today sure isn’t $10M in 1992, w/ even the official inflation adjustment it’s about $6.5M, certainly not chopped liver, just trying to give some context to the stats.
Remember, if you, me and Bill Gates are in a room, our average net worth is over $10B.
Thieves stole candle holder from my family’s grave on 3 separate occasions.
Ok, I was probably a bit harsh with my criticism of that one. If it prevents anything like the following from happening again, it was worth it..
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/01/10/cemetery.vandalism/index.html
BubbleYum..
SUBJECT TO BANK APPROVAL
That property was listed for $1.75m in 2005.
How do you make a donation to njrereport.com?
Pret,
Click on make a donation, top right hand corner of main page.
Jessica Simpson – nicknamed “Yoko Romo” by some superstitious Cowboys fans
Jumping into the wayback machine:
Re the SAS & Sync Detroit discussion:
I don’t see us as Detroit, but I’m viewing things in relative terms. I think things will be so bad nationwide, that even if we were to fall considerably (and, sadly, I fear we might) we would still not be in the same relative position v. the nation that Detroit is in today.
At one point Newark and Detroit had a lot of similarities, but I think Detroit’s situation is far more perilous today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiz0kLoOrhxE&refer=home
Sovereign’s report adds to evidence that credit losses are spreading in the banking system from mortgages into consumer and automobile loans.
rv #136: Fort Lee office, spring 1993-spring 1994. Horrible job. Biggest mistake of my life. I was seduced by getting out of NYC and living a mile from where I lived. Bad, bad fit for me. I put in my year, started getting my master’s, and got the hell out of there. Blog link is in my sig.
grim Says:
January 14th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
BubbleYum..
SUBJECT TO BANK APPROVAL
That property was listed for $1.75m in 2005.
________________________________________________
Good Lord . . . I think we’ll just rent for a good, long while–it’s too scary out there for me . . .
Rich (146)-
At the risk of possibly ruffling the feathers of a regular…Felidia’s sucks. Better to skip it and come to the Grimfest.
BC Bob Says:
January 14th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
How do you make a donation to njrereport.com?
Pret,Click on make a donation, top right hand corner of main page.
bost: or you buy him a scotch…
JB,
Congratulations. As I said many times before, this blog has helped me keep my sanity (all too seriously) in the past 3 years.
The resources that have been presented on and provided by this blog are invaluable tools for home buyers, sellers and local economists. These tools ultimately lead me to making a great financial decision with my home purchase last month. Even though I bought in the bubble, I did not buy at a bubble price.
Thank you for the historical compilation of new articles from the last housing bust, the Property Record links, the colorful graphs and most importantly Low Ball:)
spam spam bacon spam Says:
January 14th, 2008 at 10:24 am
[77] Roy G Biv Says:
Roy, gotta say I love your name…
spam: ripped off Mr. Ray….
http://www.mrray.com/
ChiFi (170)-
He should post a link: “Will Work for Scotch”
Yum (168)-
“Good Lord . . . I think we’ll just rent for a good, long while–it’s too scary out there for me . . .”
The time to buy is when everyone else is in full retreat.
No guts, no glory!
Maybe somebody should spring for an elephant for him to ride into the parking lot.
Jayne into animals, and such.
Clot (169),
I would but it a birthday present for the matriarch who is a fan of Lidia Bastianich’s show. And at her age all she really wants is time with family. So, it’s off to Felidia we go.
And was looking forward to meeting you as I know you won’t be trekking to the “Gold Coast” in March.
Rich
Congrats Grim!
Been a lurker since late 2006 and this site has been part of my daily routine ever since.
Rich (176)-
I’ll come to the Gold Coast event…if the after-party is in Harrison.
Harrison might be a good place to test my repaired grenade launcher.
Jill Says:
January 14th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
rv #136: Fort Lee office, spring 1993-spring 1994. Horrible job. Biggest mistake of my life. I was seduced by getting out of NYC and living a mile from where I lived. Bad, bad fit for me. I put in my year, started getting my master’s, and got the hell out of there. Blog link is in my sig.
Jill: the place was a sweatshop, but good experience for someone in my position….do you remember Amy P. (script writer)? She is now my sister-in-law……
Clot [178],
There may have to be seperate get togethers on the same night. One venue may not be big enough. JB will have to shuttle back and forth.
“Harrison might be a good place to test my repaired grenade launcher.”
Clot,
Does it also detect radon?
ChiFi
Not everyone will see the donation link. If you are running firefox and various adblock/scriptblockers, then you do not see the link… FYI
This is a bit off the topic of RE, unless one considers it related to what sellers have been doing to buyers in recent years, but it is funny. So is the video clip.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22638020
Well, this is one Chrysler execs weren’t counting on. The company wanted to make a big debut for its redesigned Dodge Ram pick-up.
So it hired 150 steers to “stampede” (actually more like amble) down the main street in front of Detroit’s Cobo Hall alongside the new Dodge Ram pick-up.
All went as planned until the Chrysler execs started addressing the crowd in front of Cobo Hall. Then, as Chrysler president Jim Press tried to tell the people about the Ram, nature called.
Some of the steers were feeling “randy” and they decided to see if others in the stampede felt the same way. Since they were all bulls, there was no consummation, but plenty of chuckles in the crowd.
To his credit, Press persevered through the “disturbance” created by some of the “amped up” bulls trying to feel out the other cattle.
cf #180: Yup. Used to hang out with Amy frequently. They moved to that prestigious college town in SW Jersey, I think…haven’t seen them since they moved. Tell her I said hi. Her kids must be getting big now.
KL may have been great for folks like you, but for someone in IT it was no use at all. OS/2-based voice response? Yup. Big market for THOSE apps now. /*snerk*
Grim,
Did you receive my e-mail?
I’m just another person that wants to thank Grim and the others for reminding me that prices the last several years have been outrageous. I think two years ago, I was considering pre-construction prices over at the Siena in Montclair and financing interest-only but the numbers and opinions here made me think otherwise.
Keep up the good work.
not sure if i’ve been ignorant for all this time but i came across some thing today that really baffled and enraged me. i pulled into a velero gas station off rt.1 near princeton and as i was bracing myself to fill up the suv i noticed two separate prices. one for purchase with cash and another for credit/debit. i understand surcharges and all but the price was 7 cents more per gallon then the cash price!
have i really been this clueless all this time?!
Yes
Yes
Grim – Just sent you a small token of appreciation via PayPal!
Keep up the good work.
i’m an idiot.
Secondary Market Says:
January 14th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
s&m: I’m so paranoid I check my grocery receipts…..and it pays to do so!
Three biggest almost-ripped-off gas stations I almost got nailed at were in Camden, Newton MA, and in Bedminster/Bridgewater right past the Hills shopping center on 202/206….
Clotpoll Says:
January 14th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Yum (168)-
“Good Lord . . . I think we’ll just rent for a good, long while–it’s too scary out there for me . . .”
The time to buy is when everyone else is in full retreat.
No guts, no glory!
________________________________________________
Hah! If it were actually a cobwebby old Victorian full of original woodwork and hidden nooks and crannies, I might be tempted (against my better-half’s ever-sober judgment).
But a white elephant McMansion with a fountain in the “courtyard” AND a wrought iron gate? I’ll pass–this is the kind of place we retreat from even in the best of times.
Thanks and congratulations to grim. You have easily saved us 200K as well. Whew.
A hedge fund manager charges approx a 2% management fee and keeps 20% of the profits.
#188 Secondary Market,
It took me 2 months (last November) to realize this too; I’ve since switched from Valero to the Raceway adjacent to it. The tiny font is the sucker.
Congrats Grim!
I use to feel insignificant because I felt like I was the only one who could not afford a home in a decent (not upscale) neighborhood. But from reading your blog I learned I was not alone and how a lot of people were buying homes. I am glad I did not follow the crowd and get an ARM. You kept me out of trouble with hopes of prices coming down to a level I can afford.
Thank you to That Big Window for introducing me to the site!
NJ average household income finding flawed.
I was doing research on town in NJ and looking at there average household incomes and I figured out a flaw in the calculations.
Lets say you have
100 people making 40k per year
100 people making 70k per year
25 people making 200k per year
———————————+
So now correct me if I am wrong but
100 x 40,000 = 4,000,000
100 x 70,000 – 7,000,000
——————————
11,000,000
/ 200 people
————————
$55,000.00 average household income
Which seems about right
Now we include the 25 people a small % of those 200 people
and add
11,000,000
+5,000,000 (25 x 200,000)
——————————
16,000,000\225 = 71,000
So becuase a few rich people move into the neighborhood that totally messes with the numbers.
I would be very interested in seeing the average income of people in NJ who make under 100k for household income what that would change the numbers in this state too.
So we can see how much the 30% of the entire state of NJ who make a household income of over 100k how much they affect the numbers in this state numbers.
I bet there would be a big differnec if we took out those 30% and only used the the 70% of the entire state of nJ who makes a household income of under 100k.
I bet the numbers would be much lower.
Homer #199…
That’s why median income is often thought of as a more relevant statistic than average income. Median income looks at the income of the guy in the middle; half make more & half make less. It’s less influenced by outliers.
#199 – this is why “average” is not a very useful statistic in this case. Median is somewhat more informative (50% of households and above that income and 50% households are below). Average becomes more valid as the number of households being considered is larger, but it is still subject to influence by outliers.
JB,
One more thank you for your hard work which helped me find the cure for my wife’s mild to severe case of “house fever.”
Re in NJ this is what I see
100 people making 40k per year (retired people and kids fresh out of school living at home or with roomates)
100 people making 70k per year (blue collar couples, either renting in a coop or a small cape)
25 people making 200k per year (people who actually buy nice single family homes).
I bet the number is much higher, 401K match not included, unvested stock/options not included, value of teachers rich pensions and medical not included, AGI backs out deductions so the guy with four kids and a big mortgage may show income of 70K when he makes more and what about off the books and tax free income.
Plus added 200K people don’t do much. It is the occassional guy who makes a killing. Two doors done my 35 year old neighbor who left goldman at 32 to do a start up sold the start up and made a few million, next year he sold his 500K split and moved to a richer town. I am sure his 5 million income in my town with about 30,000 employed people made my town look a lot richer.
Plus the people in the 100K to 200K sometimes are the biggest spenders. I make good money but I don’t spend money. It is that core middle of the pack keeping up with the jones crowd that keeps our great country going.
Here is my new salary
2005 – 200K is the new 100K
2006 – 250K is the new 100k
2007 – 200K is the new 100K
2008 – 100K is the new 100k
The bubble has burst!
Median State Income for New Jersey
1 earner (dollars) 51881
2-person families 61375
3-person families 77728
4-person families 90261
5-person families 90504
6-person families 93995
7-or-more-person families 78951
Nancy Pelosi tells Bernanke to fire up the damm printing presses already.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday said at a meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that she hopes Congress and the central bank can coordinate a plan to boost the economy and head off a possible recession.
“I want to convey to the chairman the concerns that the American people have in meeting their day-to-day needs, and hope that we can find bipartisan initiative recognizing the independence of the Fed but with some coordination so we can have a fiscal stimulus with some monetary ease,” she told reporters before the closed door meeting.
Falling home values, high oil prices and a decline in the stock market have raised concerns that the United States could slip into recession before the November general election.
Congressional leaders are looking into ways to stimulate economic growth and President George W. Bush may unveil a package later this month with he gives his annual State of the Union address to Congress.
(Reporting by Donna Smith and Thomas Ferraro, editing by Neil Stempleman)
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1441976020080114
From Reuters:
S&P slashes Victoria SIV’s ratings after default
Standard & Poor’s on Monday slashed its credit ratings on Victoria Finance, a structured investment vehicle, after the fund defaulted on its obligations to pay off maturing commercial paper.
S&P lowered the fund’s issuer credit rating to “D,” for default, from “B-minus,” the sixth lowest junk rating. Victoria’s commercial paper and medium-term note ratings are also now “D.”
Victoria Finance has roughly $6 billion in outstanding senior debt, S&P said in a news release. The fund is invested in mostly structured finance assets, much of it top-rated collateralized debt obligation securities.
pricesstillskyhigh:
I will try Saravana Bhavan tomorrow and will report back to you here. If I get the Bombay belly, you will pay!!!
Median State Income for New Jersey
1 earner (dollars) 51881
2-person families 61375
3-person families 77728
4-person families 90261
5-person families 90504
6-person families 93995
7-or-more-person families 78951
Note to self: don’t have more than 4 kids.
From Smith Barney
Why is it that we would have cared about the possible bankruptcy of an investmentgrade
mortgage provider? Well, without getting too melodramatic about the thought,
it would be absolute Armageddon for the financial markets. If you push on a soft bag
of slime, it will eventually pop out on another side — a CFC filing could have that
kind of effect. Financial defaults tend to be disastrous anyway as the
interrelationships are broad and usually everyone has exposure. Surely, the monoline
insurers would come under pressure — more so than they already are — and at that
point, the fun would have just been getting started. Virtually every fixed-income
market might have been affected by problems with the monolines
You know those “Are you paying too much for your mortgage?” ads all over start pages?. Or “Is your interest rate too high?”
Just noticed that the ones I usually see have all changed over to auto insurance ads.
OT,
Lisoosh, may i suggest Adblock plus for firefox. I havent seen an add on any website in a very long time
High Risk – High Reward, in Corporate America today, is actually No Risk – High Reward. This was very evident with the departure of several CEO’s recently who took with them many millions of dollars. If High Risk – High Reward were True, then departing Executives, who lose money, would have Lead Parachutes. Only those who made money would have Gold Parachutes. Likewise Wall Street would have Postive Bonuses when making money, Negative Bonuses when losing money. Bonuses from year to year could be in escrow for potential future adjustment. Definately an incentive to not lose other peoples money, lest you lose yours.
Yum (194)-
All that would need to complete the look is a bathtub Madonna…
echoing 1975…..China Development Bank to Citi “Drop Dead”
Beijing Blocks Deal For Citigroup Stake Discord Persists In China About How To Deploy Cash Hoard
By RICK CAREW in Hong Kong, JASON DEAN in Beijing and DAVID ENRICH in New York
January 14, 2008 1:13 p.m.
Once again, Wall Street came knocking on Beijing’s door. This time it went home empty-handed.
The Chinese government’s apparent rejection of a planned multibillion-dollar investment in Citigroup Inc. by state-owned China Development Bank suggests there may be limits to Beijing’s status as a cash source for Western banks eager to plug holes in their balance sheets.
It also illustrates how, despite China’s recent spate of prominent deal-making abroad, there remains considerable disagreement in Beijing over exactly how China’s money should be deployed.
People familiar with the situation say China’s senior leadership decided against backing the investment plan, which had been in the works for weeks. The letdown comes after China’s sovereign-wealth fund, China Investment Corp., pumped $5 billion into Morgan Stanley in December to help rebuild its capital base.
Citigroup had hoped to sell a stake valued at about $2 billion to China Development Bank as part of a second round of fund raising to improve its books, in the wake of losses from its exposure to U.S. subprime lending and its decision to fold off-balance-sheet investments into its own accounts. Citigroup hopes to announce a cash infusion from sovereign-wealth funds and other investors Tuesday when it is due to report its fourth-quarter earnings and announce more write-downs.
Citigroup now is expected to eliminate 20,000 to 30,000 jobs, according to people familiar with the matter. While some employees got pink slips last week, most of the layoffs are expected to get under way this week.
[edit]
#207, Stu
Wow, midnight blogging?! I’ll be far away from you… in north-eastern India. Tucked away in the Himalayas where Bob Dylan is more known than anyone else.
Indian food – spicy on the way in and out…beware!!
Great job Grim! Keep up the good work!
Nice job Grim. When you going national?
KL may have been great for folks like you, but for someone in IT it was no use at all. OS/2-based voice response? Yup. Big market for THOSE apps now. /*snerk
Huh?
KL
Were the 699 comments this weekend a record?
Thanks too Grim,
This site has helped me keep my head on straight for the last two years with my eyes on the horizon.
I think some other regular posters here deserve mention also. Clotpoll has tirelessly posted extremely valuable information here as long as I can remember. Thanks also!!!
From Minyanville:
3. China, They’re Just Like Us!
Turns out Citigroup’s (C) plans to raise much-needed capital by selling a $2 billion stake to China Development Bank may not be the slam dunk everyone thought.
According to the Wall Street Journal, over the weekend opposition to the deal surfaced from within China’s government.
Why the cold feet?
Apparently, because China may be more like us than we thought, and prefer that their investments…. wait for it…. make money.
The story echoes a piece by James Fallows in this month’s The Atlantic, “The $1.4 Trillion Question,” that notes a growing backlash among Chinese after a $3 billion investment in Blackstone (BX) that has lost more than a third of its value.
(That was $3 billion of China’s national savings, by the way.)
As Fallows notes, what China’s huge trade surplus, estimated to be about $1.4 trillion, is that, “In effect, every person in the (rich) United States has over the past 10 years or so borrowed about $4,000 from someone in the (poor) People’s Republic of China.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=15522
can we please move on from all the talk about how freakin’ wonderful Grim is? I mean, could anything be more boring? Can we please talk about something over which reasonable minds could differ?
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/60071-foreclosures-coming-soon-to-a-neighborhood-near-you
Anyone who blames the media has holes in their head. Unless, of course, media means housing shills like Lereah at the NAR, and/or real estate agents that have been singing the same tune for years: “There is never a better time to buy”, “It’s different here”, and “Real estate always goes up”.
Check out this link,this is a taste from a good piece today.
222 ….hmmnn getting yelous???
222…a little more, just for you
Grim=trenchant
“njpatient Says:
January 14th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
can we please move on from all the talk about how freakin’ wonderful Grim is? I mean, could anything be more boring? Can we please talk about something over which reasonable minds could differ?”
Personally I don’t much care for the shirt he’s wearing in the picture. The chex are a little too big. I’d have opted for something solid, perhaps in a light blue.
Congrats on the article Mr Bednar!
There’s a terrific video posted today at The Big Picture; housing related conference. I can’t seem to link it.
Orion 228 Went to site no luck either.
Very nice work Grim! I appreciate the time you spend on this site as well as your data compiles. Like many others on this site, it’s helped me shift my focus from spending money to making it. Thanks!!
Another RE deal fails to close:
http://www.miamiherald.com/435/story/377464.html
Walk-away groom: Jim Ferraro, multimillionaire trial lawyer.
Ferraro, set to marry prominent real estate broker Patricia Delinois on Friday in a formal ceremony at Fisher Island’s Vanderbilt Mansion, jilted her — at the altar — as they were about to exchange vows before 75 to 80 guests.
Citigroup now is expected to eliminate 20,000 to 30,000 jobs, according to people familiar with the matter.
Don’t know how many layoffs in NYC, but I think Citi is NYC’s largest private sector employer.
Many were not surprised. It was an on-again, off-again romance. The couple applied for a marriage license in 2005. ”Not returned,” county records say. They applied again on Jan. 4 and finalized their plans.
But at 8:36 a.m. Friday, Delinois e-mailed friends: ”After a lot of thought I think it’s best that this wedding is canceled.” A few hours later, she sent another e-mail: “Relationships are not easy, but I think we have both reached that turning point and it is time for us to recognize and affirm our love by marriage. So we are getting married tonight. The ceremony starts at 7 p.m.”
Ferraro says he never planned to ditch her. “I really intended on doing it. I tried my best.”
If it is a donation, is it tax deductable?
“SAS
i believe that you called this out over the weekend”
damn straight.
keep your eyes on the peg ; )
SAS
A Good Yardstick for the current Candidates;
‘Here’s my strategy on the Cold War: We win, they lose.’- Ronald Reagan
‘The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’ – Ronald Reagan
‘The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.’ – Ronald Reagan
‘Of the four wars in my lifetime, none came about because the U.S. was too strong.’
– Ronald Reagan
‘I have wondered at times about what the Ten Commandments would have looked like if Moses had run them through the U.S. Congress.’ – Ronald Reagan
‘The taxpayer: That’s someone who works for the federal government but doesn’t have to take the civil service examination.’
– Ronald Reagan
‘Government is like a baby: An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.’
– Ronald Reagan
‘The nearest thing to eternal life we will ever see on this earth is a government program.’ – Ronald Reagan
‘It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.’ – Ronald Reagan
‘Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.’ – Ronald Reagan
‘Politics is not a bad profession. If you succeed, there are many rewards; if you disgrace yourself, you can always write a book.’ – Ronald Reagan
‘No arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is as formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women.’- Ronald Reagan
‘If we ever forget that we’re one nation under God, then we will be a nation gone under.’
– Ronald Reagan
Congratulations on ruining the discussion board for the day. I guess this is what happens when you become famous.
I got alot of flack in my email about my Detroit comments.
ok, I exaggerated. I withdraw the Detroit analogy (except for Newark).
but, get ready for a reduction in lifestyle in the state of NJ and a major push towards “privitization”
If you are going to rely on a pension in the future or do so now.. scan the news and get involved in your local politics and city counsels, because as soon as something starts to smell, you can be on it.
I think NJ is going to try to somehow, get out of there pension obligations…to a certain degree.
SAS
She sure could pick ’em:
“Delinois also had a 16-year marriage, to building contractor George ”Rod” Timinsky. They divorced in September 2000. A couple of weeks later, she married Miami entrepreneur Michael Scott Segal. Didn’t last. In April 2001, Miami-Dade police arrested Segal on attempted murder and kidnapping charges after they caught him trying to drive a Honda into a Cutler Ridge lake — with his unconscious ex-girlfriend stuffed in the trunk. Delinois got the marriage annulled.”
and I still like Ron Paul !!
yee,
SAS
Hey Grim,
It’s time to capitalize and cash in on this puppy. Sell this domain to Realtor.com for a couple 100K so they can redirect it to their homepage:) I guarantee they will contemplate having thousands of “fence sitters” redirected to their site daily.
August to November for NJ:
Subprime adjustable rate mortgages(arm)went from a current status (less than 30 days) of 67% to 59%. Increase from 12% to 15% in past due 60+ and increased from 9% to 12% in foreclosures.
This is like the tech bubble in 01-02. People just threw out their 401k statements without opening. I imagine mbs fund managers are doing the same.
Good Job!
Great Depression
Banks haven’t lost this much money, in relative terms, since the Great Depression, said Richard Sylla, a professor of the history of financial institutions and markets at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
U.S. banks, insurers and real-estate companies earned about $1 billion a year during the 1920s until the stock market crash of October 1929. The industry lost about $500 million in 1930, $1.7 billion in 1931, and $2 billion in 1932, Sylla said.
Within days of being inaugurated in March 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt issued an emergency order declaring a “bank holiday” to stem a run on deposits. About 7,000 banks, or a third of the U.S. total, failed and financial companies didn’t return to profitability until 1936, Sylla said.
Last year’s collapse of the subprime mortgage market was worse than the third-world debt crisis of the early 1980s, when soaring oil prices and surging interest rates pushed Mexico and other developing countries into default on their loans, said Charles Geisst, a finance professor at Manhattan College in Riverdale, New York, and author of “100 Years of Wall Street.”
Abu Dhabi
“This is the classic credit crunch,” Geisst said. “It might not have gotten to credit cards, it might not have gotten to car loans, but it’s coming.”
2008 prediction………..the next media appearance JB will be clad in a Captain America-esque costume….with the moniker….CAPTAIN REAL ESTATE….! GO GRIM!
Congrats Grim, well deserved praise and recognition.
Never believed in predicting in market timing, but your blog and contributors (who deserve some praise as well) definitely highlighted that we were near the top in 2006. Hopefully the community will equally highlight signs when we near the bottom. My prediction of course is 2010, but what do I know?
Jill #167,
Are you talking about the old HR consulting firm Kwasha-Lipton that became Coopers that beame Price Waterhouse that became Mellon that is now ACS (at the moment)? Yep, I worked there back in 2002 – 2003. I could not get out there fast enough. Let’s get this straight – I work 80 hours a week for slave pay because the client is all f-ed up and the compant can;t turn a profit and you provide??..oh yes, CDs as Christmas bonus. On another note, I am close to so many people from there today. It is like war veterans meeting up…seriously.
(184) Shore Guy Says:
Some of the steers were feeling “randy” and they decided to see if others in the stampede felt the same way. Since they were all bulls, there was no consummation, but plenty of chuckles in the crowd.
__
I guess Chrysler can now claim rear steering as an option…
231 Walk-away groom: Jim Ferraro, multimillionaire trial lawyer.
Not that I think he handled things very well but it is far better to break off the engagement, even just before taking vows than it is to go forward with a marriage that one has decided should not take place.
Checkout MLS#2439791. 2 bedroom townhouse in Cambridge heights, Nutley.
OLP 429. LP 399 and you know how long it’s on the market 332 DAYS !!!!!!!!!. Damn what the hell the owner is thinking. Morons.
231……….sounds like he was simply out to ‘hurt’ that bride….punish her for something. Not very nice. Karma is a beatch tho.
Big Congrats.
Bystander #247: Yes, the very same. First of all, I was too old to be working there (I was 38). Second of all, I was inadequately trained on the technology I was supposed to be using. Third of all, the application I worked with wasn’t adequately tested before I had to use it to create production systems and it was buggy as hell. Fourth of all, my group hired a cute, flirty 22-year-old pisher who slacked off and got all the credit while the old bag (me) did all the work (including coming in at 3 AM to reset the voice servers because I lived right in town). The place practically drove me to hospitalize myself for depression and then I knew there was no salvaging the job and I had to get out. Funny….I’ve done fine everywhere else (only 2 jobs since then; I’m still at the second one).
Congrats and thanks Grim. Great work.
Unfortunately, being a reader here did not stop me from getting into a bidding war in Jan. 07 for a 1500sf colonial in Madison. Is it possible that I was the last sucker to pay above asking price in 2007? I am somewhat relieved by anecdotes on this board of the New Prov./Summit/Chatham/Madison market remaining strong, but sooner or later I guess we will all get sucked into the vortex of a price correction.
Thanks for sharing