From the Wall Street Journal:
U.S. Warning Signs Point Toward a Deep Recession
Housing Crunch,
Squeeze on Consumers
Exceed Earlier Slumps
By JUSTIN LAHART
January 21, 2008
The U.S. has suffered recessions only twice in the past quarter century and both were short and mild. There are good reasons to fear that the looming recession, if it arrives, could be worse.
Housing is in the midst of its worst downturn since at least the 1970s. That has led to a meltdown in the mortgage market; with financial firms struggling to make sense of their losses, they are making it harder for even credit-worthy borrowers to get loans. The combination of heavy debt loads, still-high energy and food prices and a weakening job market has households tightening their belts. Consumer spending, long a bulwark of the economy, is faltering.
That sets the stage for something more severe than the 2001 recession, which spanned just eight months, says Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg. During that slump, in which gross domestic product declined a slight 0.4%, quarterly consumer spending slowed but never contracted — the first time that happened during a recession since the 1940s.
The eight-month recession that ended in early 1991, when a housing downturn and credit problems sapped the economy, is a better guide. From its peak to its trough, GDP shrank 1.3%, and consumer spending slipped.
Today’s housing debacle is even worse, says Mr. Rosenberg, and the financial crisis it has precipitated is far more severe.
University of Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart and Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff agree. They say the current crisis appears on track to be at least as bad as the five most catastrophic financial crises to hit industrialized countries since World War II.
If those past experiences are any guide, the economy is in trouble, they argue in a recent paper. Indeed, “if the United States does not experience a significant and protracted growth slowdown, it should either be considered very lucky or even more ‘special’ than most optimistic theories suggest,” they write.
From the Staten Island Advance:
Bad housing market breeds burglars on Staten Island
The bad housing market is attracting bad guys, with burglars targeting appliances in new developments on Staten Island where homes are sitting empty longer.
Police report 31 incidents since September where thieves have taken tens of thousands of dollars worth of new stoves, refrigerators, microwaves, dishwashers and even toilets from vacant homes in new housing developments where sales are slow.
The Building Industry Association recently sent out an e-mail to its members advising builders to secure job sites, and the Staten Island Board of Realtors (SIBOR) plans to offer a police safety course to its broker members this week.
“The burglary pattern that appears to be occurring in vacant open houses is alarming and raises the issue of Realtor safety in the field. Our Realtors have been briefed of the theft and are on-guard when showing homes at all times,” said Adele Sammarco, a spokeswoman for SIBOR.
From DowJones:
Shipping Index Plunges To Six-month Low; Global Cooling On Cusp?
Worries that the global economy is following the U.S. into a slowdown have increased after an early warning indicator — an index that tracks global shipping rates for bulk commodities — plunged to a six-month low.
The Baltic Dry Index fell to a reading of 6,462 Friday, down nearly 30% since the start of the year and 42% from an all-time high reached Nov. 13, according to the Baltic Exchange in London.
The gauge, which tracks freight rates on the mammoth vessels that carry tons of soybeans, corn, coal and metals across the globe, is used by economists to get an early read on global trade and growth trends. When demand for those basic materials shrinks, freight rates drop and the index tumbles. The trend provides an early snapshot of trade volumes before governments compute reports.
“It’s fallen quite significantly,” said Bernard Baumohl, managing director at The Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, N.J. “It points to a slowing in the global economy.”
From the Guardian:
Commerzbank says expects more subprime writedowns
Commerzbank will have to make further writedowns on the value of its subprime-linked investments, its designated chief executive told Reuters in an interview.
Martin Blessing, who takes over as head of Germany’s second-biggest listed bank in May, said there would be additional writedowns for the fourth quarter of 2007 and that more could follow if markets don’t improve.
“We have had further writedowns in the fourth quarter because the market has deteriorated,” Blessing said on Friday in remarks embargoed until Monday.
“I think that the writedowns will be less than they were in the third quarter,” he said, adding: “Further writedowns cannot be ruled out.”
What choice do they have but to wait?
From Bloomberg:
ACA Customers Allow More Time to Unwind Default Swaps
ACA Capital Holdings Inc., the bond insurer battered by losses related to subprime mortgages, won approval from trading partners for another month to unwind $60 billion of credit-default swap contracts that it can’t pay.
ACA, under the control of the Maryland insurance regulators, extended an agreement that waives collateral requirements, policy claims and termination rights until Feb. 19, the New York-based company said in a statement on Business Wire late yesterday.
ACA is working with its trading partners “to develop a permanent solution to stabilize its capital position,” according to the statement.
From Reuters:
Bank of China to Take Big Hit on Subprime -Paper
Bank of China might post a 2007 loss because of a big write-down on billions of dollars of U.S. subprime-related investments, a newspaper reported on Monday, sending shares in the lender tumbling.
Quoting unidentified sources, the South China Morning Post said Chinese banking regulators had warned the country’s leadership that Bank of China and two other state banks would make provisions for all their assets hit by U.S. mortgage defaults.
From MarketWatch:
WestLB to lose $1.5 billion, may make $1.5 billion write-off
German bank WestLB said it’s going to post a loss of approximately 1 billion euros ($1.46 billion) in 2007 and may write down almost 1 billion euros. The German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the regional associations and the savings banks associations will balance out the annual loss and up to 1 billion euros of write-downs in a planned capital increase, WestLB said.
From the WSJ:
Major Indexes Drop Sharply
On Worries Over U.S. Economy
A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP
January 21, 2008 4:45 a.m.
Asian stock markets declined sharply Monday on concerns the U.S. economy is sliding toward recession, with Japan’s benchmark index dropping nearly 4% and Hong Kong plummeting 5.5%.
…
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 3.86% to close at 13325.94. Insurance firms, with their large stock holdings, helped lead the way lower; Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance shed 5.3%. Exporting companies also were hit again by strength in the yen.
…
The Australian share market fell for an 11th consecutive day — its longest losing streak in 26 years, weighed down by heavy selling in financial stocks. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 2.9%, or 166.9 points, at 5580.4. The index has now fallen 18.6% from its record high 6851.5 in November — approaching the 20% level that defines a bear market.
…
In late trading, India’s benchmark Sensex Index was down 8.5% after earlier posting a 10.9% fall.
From Bloomberg:
Europe Enters Bear Market, Asian Stocks Slide in Global Rout
Global stocks tumbled, led by banks and mining companies, as concern that the U.S. will fall into a recession caused equity benchmarks in Hong Kong, India and Germany to drop the most in more than three years.
From the Chicago Tribune:
New alarm: Option-ARM ‘liar’s loans’
The no-worries lending that inflated the housing bubble is resulting in a flood of soured option-ARM loans, adjustable-rate mortgages that allow borrowers to pay so little every month that their loan balances rise rather than fall, sometimes sharply.
Numbers from industry trackers suggest that these borrowers, most of whom boast respectable and often top-tier credit scores and appear to have substantial incomes and home equity, are starting to create a second tide of defaults for lenders swamped by the meltdown in subprime loans made to people with bad credit or overstretched finances.
Countrywide Financial Corp., the top option-ARM lender, will be hit hard. Already reeling from the subprime mess, Countrywide was rescued from possible bankruptcy this month by Bank of America Corp., which agreed to acquire it for about $4 billion.
The option-ARM trouble stems from the loose lending practices that inundated the subprime business. Loans often were granted on the basis of stated income, not proof of a borrower’s income, giving rise to their nickname, “liar’s loans.”
“This is not a subprime crisis. This is a stated-income crisis,” said Robert Simpson, chief executive of Investors Mortgage Asset Recovery Co. in Irvine, Calif., which works with lenders, insurers and investors to recover losses related to mortgage fraud.
…
“It is astonishing how fast the credit deterioration has occurred,” said Paul Miller, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. who follows the savings and loans that specialize in these mortgages. “It took me and everybody else by surprise.”
Miller said Downey Financial Corp. was “the canary in the coal mine.” The Newport Beach, Calif.-based S&L has specialized in making option ARMs since the 1980s and keeps them as investments. Option ARMs make up about three-quarters of Downey’s loan portfolio, with most of the rest being similar loans that allow interest-only payments during the first five years but don’t allow the loan balance to rise.
…
The institute said one of its customers checked 100 stated-income loans against tax documents and found that nine in 10 of them overstated income by at least 5 percent.
“More disturbingly, almost 60 percent of the stated amounts were exaggerated by more than 50 percent,” the institute reported, saying the mortgages clearly deserve their “liar’s loan” handle.
“Part of the problem is the city does not get up-to-date information from banks and mortgage companies on foreclosures.
Curry said it is hard to know which houses are empty, even when he knows a home is in foreclosure.”
http://www.sentinelandenterprise.com/ci_8027204?source=rss
—
Squatting is a very interesting social phenomenon. For a transitory period of time, there is an opportunity for one group to win back some of the ill-gotten gains of another. The bubble created an advantage for one group on the way up, and another group will pick the bones going down.
Flippers were socially acceptable squatters.
But why DO squatters get less respect than flippers? Flippers often didn’t own the homes they abandon, nor did they pay taxes. The social ills created far exceed the social ills generated by sqatters.
Squatters can’t take down international banking systems. I’ll restate the first line posted in this comment.
“Part of the problem is the MARKET does not get up-to-date information from banks and mortgage companies on RISK.
From Bloomberg:
Stocks Plummet in Germany, Hong Kong, India in Global Rout
Stocks plunged in Germany, Hong Kong and India on mounting speculation that the global economy is slowing and company defaults will increase.
…
“It’s the worst I’ve ever seen,” said Johan Stein, who helps manage the equivalent of about $14 billion at Nordea Asset Management in Stockholm. “The financial system is in terrible shape, and no one knows where this will end.”
…
“This is a stock-market crisis and it deepens as the market realizes bit by bit that the U.S. is in a bad way,” said Alberto Roldan, head of research at Inverseguros SVB in Madrid. “Investors believe that neither a government package nor a huge rate cut is going to help evade a recession in the U.S.”
From MarketWatch:
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down nearly 500 points
After the heavy losses nursed by Asian and European stock markets, U.S. stock futures are pointing to huge losses when markets re-open on Tuesday. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 476 points, the S&P 500 futures contract fell 62 points and the Nasdaq 100 futures contract declined 81 points.
I have a question for RE brokers here: Yesterday I overheard some people at the Roxbury Home Depot discussing a mutual friend who had to lower their selling price by a whopping $1 million. Does anyone know which property they were referring to?
HE (#129, weekend part 3)-
When an oblong ball bounces your way, year after year…it’s probably not luck.
cynic (13)-
Taking your cues on RE from conversations overheard at Home Depot is like buying stocks after listening to Cramer.
Go ask some of those folks in orange smocks how they got there.
A world wide Depression may be occurring. If so, my biggest concern is Institutional losses which may wipe out Private & Public Pension Funds. On the Private side they’ll default to the Pension Guarantee Corp, which is already in the hole for Billions, and only guarantees a percentage of the Pension anyway. Federal Tax bailout would be needed, for partial pensions. In the Public Sector the State’s would have to use taxation to replace the lost money. State Tax bailout would be needed for Full Pensions. One wonders how the people, who have lost most of their assets, will pay the taxes? I guess the non Market Conservative Investors (Savers), will have to take the Hit, to bail out the Speculators. Doubt if their are enough of them.
“Today’s housing debacle is even worse, says Mr. Rosenberg, and the financial crisis it has precipitated is far more severe.”
Don’t tell pretorius.
#354 W/E part 2 chicagofinance
“I am a jets fan but my take on tomorrow is simply whether the D-line can nail Farve. Cold may make the track slippery, but if they can bum-rush the graybeard, then the jints secondary won’t be Elvis-Patterson-ed into oblivion.”
“Eli does not make or break this game, unless he commits gaffes resulting in 14 points.”
The D was there- bigtime – no turnovers by Eli… He looked great. Excellent call.. (I have no idea what Elvis Patterson-ed is!)
“Commerzbank will have to make further writedowns”
That can’t be true! bi said there’d be no more writedowns!!
Corzine was probably anticipating the Market Meltdown when he had the Legislature recently abolish Capital Punishment. He wouldn’t want that on the books when anger is directed at Trenton.
Still think DOW 5000 is a Buy, long term.
re: #7
Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance shed 5.3%.
here’s another tidbit – 1/21/08
“Financial stocks closed weaker, with Mizuho Financial Group losing 4.9%, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group plunging 5.2%”
source
Last Tuesday – 1/15/08
“Merrill Lynch will issue $6.6 billion in preferred stock primarily to Korean Investment Corp., Kuwait Investment Authority – both sovereign wealth funds – and Japanese bank Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) for $52.40 a share, equal to the three-day average closing price Friday. The stock will pay a 9% dividend.”
…
“Mizuho’s role in the recapitalization of Merrill isn’t the first time a Japanese bank has helped to beef up the finances of an undercapitalized U.S. investment bank, but does mark the biggest demonstration of Japanese banks’ return to international financial markets in more than two decades.
In 1986, Sumitomo Bank Ltd., one of the predecessors of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (SMFJY), bought a stake in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) that gave the firm – then a private partnership fighting to compete with better- capitalized rivals – a much-needed cash injection of $500 million.
The Japanese bank went on to make $1.9 billion on the investment. When Sumitomo found itself short of cash in 2003, Goldman pumped $1.3 billion into the bank, solidifying the relationship between the two institutions, which remain close and often work on investment projects together in Tokyo.”
Source
… anyone else got Daft Punk stuck in their heads? “…Around The World Around The World, Around The World Around The World…”
Source
be a rocker grim & unmod #22 please
#21
I’m tending to agree with you. Seems like the stock market is going to be “on sale” for a while.
This can’t be happening. Wern’t we told that global financial centers are immune?
“One of Britain’s biggest property funds was forced to shut its doors to withdrawals yesterday after the slump in commercial prices triggered panic selling by small investors.”
“Scottish Equitable said yesterday that 129,000 small investors in its £2bn property fund will not be able to access their money for up to a year, although payments relating to regular income already being paid, retirements and death claims will not be affected.”
“Commercial property values, especially in the City of London office market, have dived amid fears of a recession brought on by the global credit crunch.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/uk-property-funds-shut-down-by-panic.html
Finding bank owned properties becoming more frequent on the MLS now. Lovely Half Duplex in Lodi for sale
2/10/06 Sold $325,000
9/06 Up for sale at $350,000 (new owner didnt do anything to the house judging from the pics)
No one bites
6/07 Back on Market at $275,000
10/07 Bank Owned – selling at $255,000
“This is not a subprime crisis. This is a stated-income crisis,” said Robert Simpson, chief executive of Investors Mortgage Asset Recovery Co. in Irvine, Calif., which works with lenders, insurers and investors to recover losses related to mortgage fraud.
[9],
Eventually they do get it.
16 Confused
if a truly global depression hit, then i would imagine that a large amount of the pension funds and various other debts would simply cease to exists. You would not have any tax base to pull from and even if you tried you would likely see massive backlash from the population. The current banking and financial system is like most other complex systems, they are only stable within a small regime of conditions. Once you go outside of those conditions the system is inherently unstable and will collapse.
question for the group…
Scottish Equitable said yesterday that 129,000 small investors in its £2bn property fund will not be able to access their money for up to a year from Bc bob 325
So is there fine print in the investment agreements that limit your ability to pull your money out? How do the businesses say you cant have your money and actually get away with it?
sorry if a repeat:
New Jersey neighbors decided to bid on each other’s home
… we’ve been thinking similar and finding another set of strong buyers. Criss-cross. You be the weak buyer/the lowball to our strong/low bid & criss-cross.
28. Kettle 1
You are logically correct, but I doubt if logic is applicable in Government. I haven’t seen them do anything Logical since WWII.
confused,
But in a global depression, there would be little income to tax and most people would likely ignore taxes as they would be to busy trying to fond food and shelter for their families.
if a truly global depression hit, then i would imagine that a large amount of the pension funds and various other debts would simply cease to exists. You would not have any tax base to pull from and even if you tried you would likely see massive backlash from the population. The current banking and financial system is like most other complex systems, they are only stable within a small regime of conditions. Once you go outside of those conditions the system is inherently unstable and will collapse.
If that scenerio becomes reality then my friends you need to stack up on Debt. buy yourself a 5 million dollar home cause 5M will feel like 5,000.
I’ve witnessed what hyper inflation did in eastern country’s after communism fell and their debt came due. Gov’t continued to print money. People that were in debt made out with free properties. I’m talking beachfront homes and hotels.
Cindy Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 8:17 am
(I have no idea what Elvis Patterson-ed is!)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elvis_Patterson
Actually that wiki isn’t so accurate. My impression of Toast was that he was clearly talented. The problem was that as a rookie he was “schooled” so funny-badly that Toast was born. By his second year he began stepping up, but Madden used the name on the air, and the rest was history.
Jints fans? Please correct me….
Kettle 1
Let’s pray we avoid such, lest we all live in Bush/Clinton/McCain/Obama/Kennedy/etc villes, which replace the old Hoover villes. Luckly as a kid I learned how to make shelters out of tin & cardboard. Good stuff from Depression ERA parents. Grapes of Wrath is easier with good highways, although traffic will be much worse. Oops, forgot about gas prices, local Hoovervilles it is.
Thanks Chicago – All I know is Eli looked like a seasoned pro out there and that defense was fierce.
Yeah, I know…I’m part of the “bread and circuses” today.
33 Make Money
It is unfortunate that the Dollar has no Hard Asset backing. In the Last depression “Cash was King”, but it was backed by “Gold”. This Depression “Cash may be Jester”, as it’s backed by “Fools Gold”, Promissory Babble.
confused,
I am not suggesting that we are about to enter a depression ( yes i think it is a possibility, but not currently a likely one). I think we are looking at a global recession. My depression comment was just a discussion on its effects
30 i think
I wonder that too, you act low buyer for me, I’ll do it for you. I wonder if that’s legal?
Sorry Clot I’ve seen it too many times. Pats fumble the ball, falls back to a Pat; never happens for the opponents. L-U-C-K-Y.
Latest taxpayer debacle: a $12M train station with no parking.
http://www.dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080121/COMMUNITIES35/801210331/1203
I posted this late Sunday, still curious. It’s from the tremendous Bernake piece in the NYT this weekend:
“Bernanke also has strong reasons to worry, however, about easing rates too much. Inflation has failed to fall as the Fed expected. (In fact, lately it has been rising.) Also, lower interest rates induce foreigners to switch out of dollar-denominated investments like Treasuries and into currencies with higher yields. Thus, any rate cut would tend to escalate the stampede out of the dollar.”
What would be the most likely result if instead of cutting rates, Bernake did absolutely nothing?
There should be a new section called “What are they smoking?” putting in the latest MLS listings with outrageous prices. Here is my contribution:
MLS 2471164
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?mlslid=2471164&ml=3&typ=7&sid=7666fe04132e4755ad78a7860b0d218e&lid=1093851175&lsn=1&srcnt=1#Detail
Hard,
At those prices they can afford to pay for their own advertising. I certainly shouldn’t be expected to foot the bill for it.
“Jean-Claude Trichet and Lawrence Summers accurately warned investors a year ago about being too complacent. Now they see an erosion of confidence that threatens to paralyze the global economy.”
“When you have recessions from bubbles bursting, they tend to be protracted,” says Summers, a Harvard economist and the university’s former president. “There is the possibility, not yet at all the probability, that a recession could prove long and severe.”
“I don’t know how you can have an optimistic, self- congratulatory feeling today,” says Stephen Schwarzman, co- founder of Blackstone LP, the world’s largest buyout firm.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=special_report&sid=aMsfW.JX6KIA
45…looks like a nice place….you mean to say that some banker from NYC (if he/she still has a job) wouldn’t plunk down the cash to be in prestigious Chatham?
Counter Party question:
I know the location has been identified as Morristown, but has any further detail been established? Which business will we be visiting?
49….I think that Grim should hold the info…and contact interested parties….broadcasting the venue here would invite -lurkers- and perhaps some neo-nutzo trolls.
Does anyone want to suggest a place?
Needs to have a large bar area, no sit-down venues.
make money may have a point about loading up on debt if you really think a depression is about to hit.
grim There was a house that sold in my town, closed in November of 07. It is already listed on Realty Trac as lis pendin!!
So they closed, and missed the first mtg pymt? Is this possible? I guess it is, but truly amazing!!!
I’ve seen a number of those and I can’t help but wonder if they were purchased by straw buyers as part of a mortgage fraud scheme.
I like essex’s idea about grim sending invites instead of just throwing the info up on the board, although it makes for a lot of work for grim
is there a ballpark idea of how many people might show up to Counter Party?
#55
Are people really nervous about wacko’s showing up at the bar?
#57
They won’t, they never do, and I’ve been involved with online communities for more than 15 years. The dynamics of online communities are conducive towards breeding those types of personalities. However, those personalities are most always manufactured and rely on anonymity to survive. Trolls and big talkers never show, simply because they can’t pull off the charade in public.
#58
That was my impression as well. I’m actually hoping some of the more noteworthy characters show up, such as RE101, Bi, pret etc…
Although, there was that one time at the Fuddruckers in Parsippany when myself and another gentleman wrestled a knife from a younger man who tried to attack an online acquaintance for stealing his internet chat room girlfriend.
To thouse who are suggesting to load-up on debt – Once depression hits and you have no job – it does not matter how low your debt paymenta are since you have no income.
The best property to have during depression – if FARM – people need to eat.
SO I guess I should buy a Farm??
On the other hand if depression is avoided:
When will we see on-set of WAGE INFLATION?? – anybody dares to guess on timeline?
[45] 900K for that!? The sad thing is that you would think you were getting a deal on it if you “low balled it” at 750K.
I’m going if Reinvestor101 goes. He can be the entertainment.
Essex/Grim – Chatham MLS.
Sure it’s a nicely appointed house, but I think they arrived to the party after the punch was finished. Something like this could easily sell for 1/3rd less. I’m guessing this is a future “Lowball!” candidate.
As for wackos showing up at your party, they tend to not like crowds. Wackos tend to congregate, of course, some might think we are RE doomsday wack jobs. Time will reveal all.
“I’m going if Reinvestor101 goes. He can be the entertainment.”
njcoast,
I though you were bringing The Boss for entertainment?
61,
i am not suggesting that, but i do think its an interesting concept, unfortunately i do not have a good enough background in the history of US and other nations depressions to guess how it would actually work
#65 BC Bob,
He’ll be busy rehearsing for the next leg of his tour starting on Feb 28 in Conn.
Charles Rangel suggests killing the AMT
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/17/pf/rangel_interview.moneymag/index.htm?section=money_topstories
66
Unless you have negotiated fixed rates, most debt is indexed to Prime or Libor. Unless you optimized your payoff in advance, you could expect those rates to jump dramatically.
lostinny 68 –
Carried interest is a subsidy for the rich hedge fund managers. What a crock of BS. Hedge fund managers are laughing their way to the bank. Fund managers are asking they’re employers “Please just defer my compensation and have it reinvested in the fund as “carried interest”, so I can pay less taxes.”
Grim 51 (venue suggestion)
I have been to Grasshopper in Morristown with relatively large groups. It is likely to be pretty crowded and noisy late, but earlier in the evening it might work. They have tables in the bar area, but still lots of room for standing and moving around.
http://ardore.com/listing.asp?r=grasshopper14&c=All&m=c&u=all&df=1
njcoast[67],
Any rehearsal dates set for the Convention Center?
Should we all wear “I’m a RE Jihadist” T-shorts so that Re101 can find us??
http://www.cafepress.com/cp/customize/product.aspx?from=ReviewAndOrder
#65 BC Bob: If reinvestor goes, he is going to want to kick my butt.
#64 hardplace: some might think we are RE doomsday wack jobs. Time will reveal all.
No. we were just ahead of our time. Now we are going to be main stream;time to break ou the old suits and ties.
I would guess moderate inflation would probably reek the most havoc with peoples retirement funds
grim There was a house that sold in my town, closed in November of 07. It is already listed on Realty Trac as lis pendin!!
how many pmnts do you have to miss to have a lis pendin filed against your property?
I thought it was in the neighborhood of 6 months. Does it vary state to state? Anyone familiar with NY?
Mneer 69
true,
But what happens when a large % of your population defaults??? It would be a disaster overall, but how do you get your money back when there is no money to be had
BC Bob #72-
Get my email address from Grim.
Maybe this would be better for the get together
http://www.cafepress.com/cp/customize/designer.aspx?pr=Front
TO post 77:
I believe it takes about 6 month for the whole process from first missed payment to the eviction by court order….
But I would worry as housing keep on declining about straw buyers – In california it is a HUGE problem,
If straw buyers will become bigger problem Banks might start requiring 40-50% downpayments…..
That will help house prices to go down…..
Ohh yes – you can mave eviction date even more into the future by trying to file for BK at strategic times (see you friendly BK lawyer!!!) , or financial hardship – IF YOU HAVE LITTLE KIDS….
NJ is very liberal and loves little kids – Judge will give people etxra time to find acceptible housing… I knew 1 Family who lost their house to FK and managed to stay in the house for 2 years withouit making a single payment.
I wonder I wonder –
In Bridgewater right now ther are quite a few properties listed UNDER assesment….. I wonder if township would lower taxes once someone will buy those houses and bring them sales paperwork.???
I believe lis pendens as a result of mortgage nonpayment are typically filed at the 90 day (3m) mark. I can’t speak for lis pendens filed for other reasons (nonpayment of common fees, mechanics liens, etc).
Al
I understand what a straw buyer is, but how does that scenario work in RE?
I believe it takes about 6 month for the whole process from first missed payment to the eviction by court order…
Typically longer, It’s not uncommon to see them pushed out nearer to the 1 year mark than the 6 month mark.
what do you mean – how does it work???
You find somebody who buys your house at 100K more than market – bank pays off your loan, you split the diference with Straw buyer – 50K is nto a bad payout for a hit to credit history.
78
My guess is that the lien holder recoups some at auction. Given the time differential between default and liquidation, I suppose the investor would do better in terms of writing off debt in yesterday’s dollars and booking a recovery in today’s inflation adjusted money.
By the way – amount to townhomes and condos is staggering…..
By the way Straw buyer – entering a legal contract with no intention to honor it – commiting fraud…. But it is hard to prove and now days instead of fraud it is called predatory lending – banks Made him do it!!! They said he can afford it!!!
Post 89 should read – amount of townhomes and condos for sale is Staggering
Here is a good example..
12 Berton Road, Boonton Twp NJ
Purchased: 6/15/2005
Purchase Price: $650,000
(Loan amount at origination: $585,000/ARM)
Lis Pendens was filed on: 5/14/2007
Property was taken REO by the lender at Sheriff Sale on: 1/17/2008
Judgement amount was set at $684,040.13
8 months from Lis Pendens to Sheriff Sale.
Al,
I can see several different schemes for straw buying a house, i wasnt sure what exact scenario you where referring to. I was thinking of a scenario where both you and i cannot afford our current homes. SO i bid 100K above asking for yours and you do the same for mine. We both default with cash in pocket and then go rent for the next 5 years…
Note the judgement amount almost $100,000 than the original loan balance. No additional loans or refinancing on record.
World stocks routed on economy fears
LONDON (Reuters) – World stocks nosedived and demand for safe-haven bonds and currencies soared on Monday as fears gripped investors that a deteriorating U.S. economy would drag others down with it.
http://tinyurl.com/ytcy62
When I saw the futures market this morning, I thought I was hallucinating.
If stock market opens tomorrow based on today’s futures numbers, I predict Ben will cut rates this week, to 3.50%. (apply disclaimers)
This global unravelling is at matrix speed. Unbelievable & fascinating.
#96
I have a very limited understanding of macroeconomics. How can the whole world economy tank? Is it all psychological? Doesn’t the global ecomony follow some kind of version of the laws of thermodynamics?
Al (91)
Do you have the numbers?
Sybarite (97)
Thermodynamics? I dunno. All I can see is that America has caught a severe flu and now, the world has the sniffles.
What happens in the U.S. does not stay in the U.S.
I do not have the numbers – bnut when I look thruogh MLS in “Certain Central NJ Towns” condos and townhomes stock is at x10 of single family houses.
I do not know what is historic ratio.
97
using thermodynamics to model economic models has been very successful albeit VERY complicated from what i know.
One important consideration is that the world functions on fiat currency. Global currencies are only worth what the general population using a given currency believes its worth. So if the US population decides that the US dollar is not worth its stated value then the US currency can collapse and in a very simplified model, this can cause a domino effect since the global markets are highly interdependent and since everyone in the markets uses a fiat currency. This is WAY oversimplified, but the jist of it
Al – Thanks.
OT on RE:
This kind of goes back to the science conversation we had a while back, but broader…
Do you believe that parents should encourage their children to pursue any field as long as they “love it”?
Or should parents try to ‘encourage’ their kids to pursue professions that pay well and have a good future?
Pay well and good future…
If stock market opens tomorrow based on today’s futures numbers, I predict Ben will cut rates this week, to 3.50%. (apply disclaimers)
Let’s see what happens overseas tonight. If overseas markets don’t at least stabilize, we could very see a cut before the markets open tomorrow.
I’m not sure what good it will do. A rate cut next week is pretty much a foregone conclusion anyway. At best, bringing it on a week early may “send the message that the Fed takes the current situation seriously” and may prevent the markets from getting pounded tomorrow. Any benefit, however, will be lived.
How about 2% cut?? to 2.5% or even 2.5% cut to 2%???
ANn 103
I would plan on explaining exactly what they are getting into and let them make the decision. I.e with engineering, explain that without a PhD you have very little chance of doing anything but non-engineering desk work, and even with a Phd, outside of the university realm there is little real engineering.
Everyone has to decide for themselves whether they would prefer toe enjoy their work or make money, on rare occasions you can do both, but not often.
How about 2% cut?? to 2.5% or even 2.5% cut to 2%???
Dollar will get pounded. Good for gold.
From FXstreet.com:
Also the other monoline insurers, like MBIA, the largest or ACA, who was Friday on the brink of bankrupcy and whose rating was cut to CCC, have seen their share price plummet to distress levels and in the CDS market, the cost of insuring the monoline companies’ bonds has risen to extreme levels. The problems of the monoline insurers are so huge that it threatens to wipe out a large part of the industry. This has potentially very negative ramifications throughout the financial system and even brings into the focus systemic risks.
What if they want to be RE agents?
here is a brief description of thermodynamics and other methods used in finance
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_finance
Wouldn’t even fiat currencies have a limit to how much they could inflate or deflate without a big change in money supply?
I’m thinking that legal tender laws will ensure that a fiat currency retains value just for the reason that can be used to legally pay off debt.
Thanks to whoever (BC?) posted the Paul Grignon “Money as Debt” video.
# 99 “What happens in the U.S. does not stay in the U.S.”
Maybe we should move the markets to Vegas?
# 103, “Or should parents try to ‘encourage’ their kids to pursue professions that pay well and have a good future?”
Or require that they earn a dual degree, first completing the requirements for the marketable degree before doing so for theother.
my personal (worthless) opinion on the problems with a lot of the statistical type models is that i have not seen a way or heard of how they can account for governments and large compnies/banks gaming the system like they have with the internet stock bubble and the housing bubble.
Cut the rate to zero like Japan, it won’t help, that’s not the problem. 1. Find all the thieves who caused the mess, and divest them of their ill gotten gains. 2. Revalue the overstated assets properly to Real Value. Overstated Value -(Real Value + Recovered Ill gotten gains) = Amount to write off, when Real Value is put on the Books.
Ann #103,
I think parents should teach their children what is necessary to have the lifestyle that makes them happy. Then it is up to the kids to figure out what makes them happy.
A lot of people have been made miserable trying to live to thier parents’ ideals.
Stan 112
What would limit the inflation of a fiat currency??? there is nothing of value to back it up. Look at zimbabwe they are now above 10,000% inflation
from NYtimes re zimbabwe
HARARE, Zimbabwe, April 25 — How bad is inflation in Zimbabwe? Well, consider this: at a supermarket near the center of this tatterdemalion capital, toilet paper costs $417.
No, not per roll. Four hundred seventeen Zimbabwean dollars is the value of a single two-ply sheet. A roll costs $145,750 — in American currency, about 69 cents.
The Primary job of a Parent is to teach their children “the skills which are necessary to Survive”. If CNBC Cramer’s dream of 1800 comes true, hunting, fishing and farming might be good, CPA bad.
Stan this may answer your question
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currency
My kids went into Teaching & Finance, their choice. I paid. Only Criteria was they had to become self sufficient. I would not support them for life, even if that made them unhappy.
So confused…
We should all follow clot’s plan and buy guns grenade launchers and freeze dried meals??? ;)
Kettle 118
If the money supply was fixed, I would think that the fiat currency’s status as legal tender would preserve it’s value.
How could hyperinflation be maintained over any period of time if the money supply stays the same and people are legally obliged to accept the fiat currency?
We should pool our money and collectivelly :) buy a Farm in PA :) When depression hits we can go and live/work on the farm.
Milk/weat/meat is King !!!
The first historical example of paper as fiat money was in China. That figures.
the money supply stays the same this is the key here – Does money supply stays the same espetially with goverment not reporting M3!!!
My crystal ball is showing Ben having an impromptu conference call this very moment.
Cut FFR to 0%… Hellooooo Japan!!!
124. Al
My better half is from an USNY Dairy Farm. That might work for Cow’s, Milk, & Chickens & Eggs.
STan,
not to beat a dead horse….
but look at the wiemar republic. people were legally obligated to accept the republic treasury notes, but everyone ignored that because they were considered worthless. he shifted to a barter /alternative currency system. A fiat system only works as long as people accept the value of the paper. It is the same as the stock market or RE marjet. The paper/house/stock is only worth what $$$ value people are willing to assign to it.
Al
M3 is still available here:
http://tinyurl.com/3bhh8b
and is currently growing YOY at about 15%
Al 126 –
I don’t know. But after watching the “Debt as Money” video I’m a little more optimistic. If debt is so much harder to get now and is being discharged through foreclosure, then that should shrink the money supply, which should have a deflationary effect to partially counter the inflationary effects from overseas.
This is a joke right? Best Deal and Commute in Millburn?…. LOL
http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/545905134.html
Kettle 130, 131-
Didn’t they print money like crazy in Weimar? I suppose a shrinking GDP could do it too.
How can M3 still be growing so fast with everyone talking about how hard it is to get a loan?
Ann (103) I contributed to my daughter’s education but they paid for the lion’s share
I advised them to chose what they loved and to remember it wasn’t a “life sentence.” We must all be life-long learners and can do whatever we set our minds to. We discussed the ins and outs of their choices. I also told them to embrace change..it was the one thing they could count on.
“Shares in London tumbled Monday in their worst session since the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001 as a sharp downturn in mining and banking shares pointed to growing investor fears about a slowdown in global economic growth and a U.S. recession.”
“Losses from financials were to blame in both cases, after U.S. bond insurers came under fire from a ratings agency last week and as a proposed economic stimulus plan from President Bush failed to generate much enthusiasm.”
“There seems little doubt that the fiscal package announced by the U.S. government on Friday was too little too late without the immediate implementation of a 50 basis point cut in the Fed rate to rally the U.S. economy,” said David Buik at Cantor Index.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/british-stocks-suffer-worst-one-day/story.aspx?guid=%7B5CC02F23%2DF775%2D43FD%2DA4D8%2DC3DFCE16CA53%7D&siteid=bnb
what are the chances of global sell-off at the opening tomorrow and New York Stock Exchange traiding being suspended before 2pm? Was it 10% off circuit breaker??
#135 – They paid…student loans, scholarships, work study, part-time jobs
How can M3 still be growing so fast with everyone talking about how hard it is to get a loan?
It is hard for an average Joe to get a loan – Goverment literally hands out billions to banks through discount window lending.
Backed by good faith and credit?
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2008/0102.html
Stan
Money is created not just by the FED but by every bank that hands out loans. this video will explain in detail how it works (45 min). its very informative.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279
The basics are that my bank (Kettle Trust, KT) will take $1000 from you and hold it in a savings account. Now i turn around and loan out $900 of that $1000 that you gave me. That $900 did not exist before i gave it out as a loan. We use a fractional reserve banking system and it is set ip so that every time a loan is taken out it creates money that did not exist. If every one went to their banks at the same time and tried to withdraw their money, the banks could not do it because they do not have it on hand. The current reserve requirement is at about 8%. So if BofA has 10 Billion in savings and checking accounts, it only has to have 800 Million in its vaults. The other 9,200,000,000 is handed out as loans to other businesses and individuals.
What appears to be tripping you up is that the FED is not the only entity that can create money. Every single bank in the US creates money every day!!!
Al [137]
http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html
BC (25)-
“Commercial property values, especially in the City of London office market, have dived amid fears of a recession brought on by the global credit crunch.”
But…Pret-a-Doucher says this can’t happen in Manhattan.
He cannot be over the age of 16.
I still hope to meet Re101 at the meet up!
From BC Bob 142
NYSE Circuit Breakers
In response to the market breaks in October 1987 and October 1989 the New York Stock Exchange instituted circuit breakers to reduce volatility and promote investor confidence. By implementing a pause in trading, investors are given time to assimilate incoming information and the ability to make informed choices during periods of high market volatility.
So a freeze on the market is supposed to instill confidence?!?!?!
Al, Kettle-
Thanks for the info. I wasn’t thinking about the discount window, etc. I didn’t realize M3 was still growing so fast.
Hey – I think if DJIA falls 1350points in one day – the lest NYSE should do s to stop trading….
(Noitice that 1350 WAS 10% at the beginning of the quarter, now it is more than 10%!!)
OT for Ann
This is scary
http://tinyurl.com/3xo2rh
147
In a perverse sense, this would be a good thing. There was so much speculatiuon built into the prices, such a decline likely brings us to be about where we should be.
#149 Actually, there is not a lot of speculation built into US stocks right now. Valuations are very reasonable from a historical perspective. It’s not at all like March 2000. The speculative bubble is in real estate right now. Stocks may go down, but it probably won’t be a bloodbath.
Saw this one in the margin of the story about “house-swapping”. Nice to see things are under control in S. America:
BY CASTO OCANDO
El Nuevo Herald
“Venezuela’s controversial President Hugo Chávez has revealed that he regularly consumes coca — the source of cocaine — raising questions about the legality of his actions.
Chávez’s comments on coca initially went almost unnoticed, coming amid a four-hour speech to the National Assembly during which he made international headlines by calling on other countries to stop branding two leftist Colombian guerrilla groups as terrorists and instead recognize them as “armies.”
”I chew coca every day in the morning . . . and look how I am,” he is seen saying on a video of the speech, as he shows his biceps to the audience.
Chávez, who does not drink alcohol, added that just as Fidel Castro ”sends me Coppelia ice cream and a lot of other things that regularly reach me from Havana,” Bolivian President Evo Morales “sends me coca paste . . . I recommend it to you.”
It was not clear what Chávez meant. Indigenous Bolivians and Peruvians can legally chew coca leaves as a mild stimulant and to kill hunger. But coca paste is a semi-refined product — between leaves and cocaine — considered highly addictive and often smoked as basuco or pitillo.
”It is another symptom that [Chávez] has totally lost the concept of limits,” said Aníbal Romero, a political scientist with the Caracas Metropolitan University. “It shows Chávez is a man out of control.”
More seriously, Venezuelan and Bolivian analysts said Chávez’s comments amount to a dangerous endorsement of a substance controlled around the world, and perhaps even an illegal act by a very public head of state.
”If he is affirming that he consumes coca paste, he is admitting that he is consuming a substance that is illegal in Bolivia as well as Venezuela,” said Hernán Maldonado, a Bolivian analyst living in Miami. ”Plus, it’s an accusation that Evo Morales is a narco-trafficker” for sending him the paste.
Morales is the longtime head of a Bolivian coca-growers’ union and is known to chew coca in public, even during cabinet meetings, since he took office. Bolivia limits the coca acreage in an effort to control supplies of coca leaf that wind up being refined into cocaine.”
Stan Re 132
The scenario you described (inflation –> deflation) is one of the most feared possibilities. The general idea is that inflation allows people to pay off debts and at the same time people stop taking on new debt. given that our currency is debt based, this destroys some of the money supply. Then deflation really kicks in and you can be looking at a depression, Most of the tools economists have available to fight inflation are useless against deflation.
Confused (39)-
All that gubmint “full faith and credit” is backed by YOU. Read up on the UCC, admiralty law and the concept of the straw man as it pertains to gubmint borrowing.
It will scare the sh#t out of you.
“So a freeze on the market is supposed to instill confidence?!?!?!”
Kettle,
No. Actually the only purpose is to allow traders to rush to the john.
154
the john or the window, or perhaps the Delaware memorial bridge???
kettle [155],
All of the above.
Why no circuit breakers on the upside?
#145 “So a freeze on the market is supposed to instill confidence?!?!?!”
Indeed. It allows people time to get to the widdow ledge knowing that they wil not lose any more wealth in the time between deciding to jump and actually hitting pavement.
Black Monday for Chinese stocks, down 5%
By Dong Zhixin (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-01-21 16:01
“Chinese stocks suffered the biggest drop this year, nose-diving more than 5 percent, amid growing fears over the fallout from a slump in US economy.”
“The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index plummeted 5.14 percent to 4,914 points, after hitting as low as 4,891.29. The Shenzhen Composite Index lost 4.62 percent to 1,448.17. The CSI 300 index of major companies in the two bourses declined 4.96 percent to 5,145.84.”
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-01/21/content_6409673.htm
Turbulence
Occasionally, turbulence may occur during a flight (of investors. The seat belt sign will turn on and, in case of moderate to severe turbulence ahead, the flight crew will make a brief announcement.
“Wall Street IB’s, please be seated.”
Shortly after the seat belt sign illuminates, this announcement will be made.
“Ladies and gentlemen, the Captain has turned on the fasten seat belt sign. We are now crossing a zone of turbulence. Please return your seats and keep your seat belts fastened. Thank you.”
3b (53)-
Most likely, RealtyTrac is just posting the pendency from the last owner. Their postings are not always as timely as they’d have you think.
#71
Grasshopper certainly has plenty of room, but I wonder about the noise levels. I guess we could always migrate if it got too loud for us.
sybarite (57)-
And, in a group like ours…how do you identify the wackos in the room?
grim (58)-
“Trolls and big talkers never show, simply because they can’t pull off the charade in public.”
Whew. Thanks for that piece of info, Grim.
I guess I can put away my grenade launcher now.
Thanks all for comments on encouraging children re careers.
I think the parts about making sure kids understand what they are getting into with a particular job is key. Also the part about teaching your kids what is necessary to have the lifestyle they desire.
lost (68)-
Rangel only wants to kill the AMT in order to institute a new tax that will destroy the middle class even faster.
3b (74)-
I got your back. I may also have some brass knucks out in the garage. I’ll have to look.
make (77)-
No set amount of missed payments before a lender files a lis pendens, though most lenders these days are very slow to pull the trigger.
In NJ, most large lenders will send the Notice of Default after three consecutive missed payments and file the lis pendens at 6-9 months.
Al (83)-
Yes…but expect the town to re-jigger rates and ratios in the near future (especially the Peoples’ Republic of Bridgewater).
They’re gonna get theirs out of you, no matter what.
Can we play “match the name tag to the person” at the get together? I picture Clotpoll with a camouflage jacket and one shoulder lower than the other from carrying around that grenade launcher all the time.
Shore (113)-
“Maybe we should move the markets to Vegas?”
Why would Vegas want to host something as unseemly as financial markets?
#169
LOL, that actually sounds amusing. I bet it’d be difficult to identify people before talking to them. Aside from JB, of course.
vodka (122)-
Nix the freeze-dried meals.
Pretty soon, you’ll be able to shoot up some nice, fresh vittles at any nearby municipal park. Much better than the frozen stuff.
Squirrel meat is especially tasty and lends itself to any preparation in which you’d normally use rabbit.
Stan (132)-
But, as debt is discharged- even through a “loss” vehicle, such as foreclosure- the gubmint stokes the printing presses even harder. They look at money going to money heaven as a reason to procreate more.
My wife just informed me that she and I are going out on Feb 9th. A rare event. I’m not sure that I can sell the idea of stopping by a chat room get-to-gether to her. I can pretty much predict her disdain and possible mocking when that is brought up.
#174
Why don’t you just happen to “run into us” during your dinner date in Morristown…
I think I’ll be able to identify the following:
-BC Bob- “Born in the USA” concert tour t-shirt that he only brings out for special occasions.
-Shore Guy-Khakis and blue blazer and no socks
-Re101- Joe Izuzu
sx (174)-
Tell her it’s a sw*ing@rs party.
clott 172
whew! glad i read this then…
N.J. Squirrel Warning Called Off | Newsweek.com
bi- pants down
RE101 might show up in an official NAR jacket!
Clotpoll Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Al (83)-
Yes…but expect the town to re-jigger rates and ratios in the near future (especially the Peoples’ Republic of Bridgewater).
They’re gonna get theirs out of you, no matter what.
I have no doubts they will…. Taxes have only one way to go in USA… UP
175…I actually thought of that…..I am not sure she would ‘appreciate’ that one….”…oh look honey…this must be the group from the web…imagine that! Well”…..(really awkward silence)…..
Vodka (178)-
The EPA was using a defective Bass-O-Matic:
“Tests that found lead contamination in a dead squirrel, prompting the state to issue an advisory to northern New Jersey hunters, turned out to be inaccurate, federal environmental officials said Monday.
The lead officials had detected came not from the animal, but from a defective blender that had been used to process the squirrel’s tissue samples, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said.”
For more on this crucial issue:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICuxBf1Ieu4
sx (182)-
Imagine if we were all wearing togas and dog collars…
#183
Do people hunt squirrels?!?
This is what happens when I take a holiday off.
came across a website that suggests (the current housing bubble was initiated by Bill clinton repealing the glass steagal act in 1999, that in turn allowed the banks to start playing with funny money.
A lot of the page is a rant towards clinton, but the general idea is interesting as a hypothesis
http://tinyurl.com/ywjbg4http://tinyurl.com/ywjbg4
grim, 187 moderated????
another theory of how the housing bubble got started
Since repeal of Glass Steagall in 1999, after more than a decade of de facto inroads, super-banks have been able to re-enact the same kinds of structural conflicts of interest that were endemic in the 1920s – lending to speculators, packaging and securitizing credits and then selling them off, wholesale or retail, and extracting fees at every step along the way. And, much of this paper is even more opaque to bank examiners than its counterparts were in the 1920s. Much of it isn’t paper at all, and the whole process is supercharged by computers and automated formulas.
From here
http://tinyurl.com/ywjbg4
122.kettle1 Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 12:07 pm
So confused…
We should all follow clot’s plan and buy guns grenade launchers and freeze dried meals??? ;)
I think a preferable method is to correct the current problem, which is Fraud based. If the Government insists upon not investigating and prosecuting the cause, then confidence can never be restored. And throwing Martha Stewart in prison again, is not good enough. White collar crime, of the magnitiude we are experiencing, is testamount to Economic Treason.
syb (185)-
“Do people hunt squirrels?!?”
I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess you’re not from the South…
Economic Treason
hey hey i like that, and might i suggest an immediate penalty of execution by firing squad
Holiday now going terribly wrong:
Turned on Knicks/Celtics.
Squirrels?, I need to buy a 222 Swift Varmit, my Ruger 44 Magnum just won’t do it.
I’m all for firing squads.
#189
can you define “testamount”?
confused (193)-
A Winchester .410 is an excellent small game gun.
OT,
but why was death by firing squad considered cruel and unusual???? It seems like one of the more common methods around the world and being shot at close range by several high powered rifles is about as close to a guarantee as you can get while being fairly expedient. IF firing squad is inhuman, then how the F did they ever come up with the electric chair????
People tend to get squeamish, so I volunteer to handle all Economic Treason Executions, for Free. They will be painless, I am still an expert marksman.
confused (198)-
There should be no squeamishness in firing squad volunteers.
After all, one of the rounds is always blank!
I call that deniability for all.
#190 Clot:
St Barnabus born, Union/Essex County raised. No squirrel hunting experience.
syb (185)-
Here’s a tasty Brunswick Stew recipe:
http://southernfood.about.com/library/weekly/aa980111.htm
Unemployment is growing most rapidly among white-collar and college-educated workers with long work experience
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22764445/
#199
I thought all of the guns had blanks, but one? Guess I had it backwards all this time…
#201
Yummy.
NYC will continue to export prosperity to NNJ through it’s ample supply of track rabbit.
196.Sybarite Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 2:35 pm
#189
can you define “testamount”?
Little used Archaic form of Testament. Seeing Dow Futures down 500 today, makes me feel quite old.
If one gun is blanks, then the others should be tracers, so that we have accountability.
CONFUSED,
I always liked the idea that for capital punishment, you get dropped in nortwest alaska with nothing but the clothes on your back. if you make it out then you are free to go!
maybe somewhere around here
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=66.865399,-149.427795&spn=0.466182,2.447205&t=h&z=9&om=0
203.kettle1 Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Unemployment is growing most rapidly among white-collar and college-educated workers with long work experience
“What has happened is a polarization of the labor market. It was very strong at the very top and very strong until recently at the bottom,” said Lawrence F. Katz, a labor economist at Harvard University. “But in the recent weak recovery, and now recession, demand has been very weak” for jobs in the middle.
Not good at all!
#208
I’ll take it! If Bear Grylls can do it…
208.kettle1 Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 3:13 pm
CONFUSED,
I always liked the idea that for capital punishment, you get dropped in nortwest alaska with nothing but the clothes on your back. if you make it out then you are free to go!
maybe somewhere around here
I prefer Essex’s idea on the Congo, send them there. Or for that matter recent news indicates Kenya might deal with them effectively. They are currently having a machete fest.
NJpatient was the originator of the ‘Congo’…when I asked where we someone could go where they didn’t have to worry about schools with overpaid teachers and big pharma.
Wow….how bad is Tuesday for the market….?
213.Essex Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Wow….how bad is Tuesday for the market….?
If it stays as is, not good. I don’t ever remember Dow 500 points down on Futures before, although Percent wise may have been. CNBC Cramer may get his prophecy, or they may announce something that turns it around. Tommorrow will tell.
Eddy Curry is a giant bag of blood.
I wanna cash out — move to a hut somewhere on the Gulf Coast…..and forget the whole cold northeast ever existed….but that is impossible.
Oops…shoulda saved that moniker for Jerome James.
This should help the markets tomorrow:
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) – Lebanese troops opened fire Monday on Israeli warplanes over southern Lebanon, the military said – the second time they have done so since a U.N.-brokered cease-fire ended a 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas in August 2006.
well Nj patient has a point about the congo (i.e no big pharma or school teacher unions).
Essex,
you could always try here if you really want to get away from it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tepui
Amazing…………but my idea is more like Dunedin, FL….they have a CVS…I gotta have one of those. ;8)
Naw guys….I got a while to wait….as much as this whole scene…the high costs of living…the schools…the uncertainty…my aging parents….is wearing me down. I have a plan…and I need to stick to it.
I’m living plan B right now….plan A was a bust. Plan B….is one which takes longer. And that s*cks for a guy with a case of ADHD!
Mass media are on the ball today reporting
dow futures down 600 pts for tommorrow.Things looking bad,cheekly remarking not to worry Ben will warm up the helicopter. Fox news.
i will be curious to see what the average age of most people are at the get together….
hey essex, you know that a little self medication with the good old wacky weed can help with that
#224
My guess for average age: 33
Thanks Kettle…..I’ll take that under advisement.
I’m 41…but act like a complete imbecile – so I would peg my maturity level at about 9.
Essex
hmm, my wife seems to have same assessment of me
I have to outrun Ben tommorrow and renew two maturing CD’s to 4.75%/2yr at Hudson City, before Ben strikes again. MLK day screwed me up, with Banks closing. Luckly Banks open at 9.
Kettle 224 From timelines of most posted I
would guess 35.Although confused,myself & a few others might skew it older.Depends on who shows.But over all the posters as a whole avg a little younger.Maybe Cindy can fly in to hang with us old folks.
Yeah man….I definitely married ‘up’…you might say. The big reason that I even dragged my a$$ up north was my wife. I would probably still be down on the gulf had we not met and eventually married.
if there is no improvement in asian market tonight and european market early morning tomorrow, dow will open 500 pt lower. this is the best opportunity to get into stock market. forget abut 4.75% CDs. you will make it one day.
Bi… want a bounce UP…have some stock to sell that was down 4% last week alone. Geez.
232bi Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 4:10 pm
if there is no improvement in asian market tonight and european market early morning tomorrow, dow will open 500 pt lower. this is the best opportunity to get into stock market. forget abut 4.75% CDs. you will make it one day.
I fully intend to buy back in, using dollar cost averaging, starting at DOW 7000. That’s 1000 beyond Greenspan’s Irrational Exhuberance at 6000.
Bi!
You’re coming to the counter party, right?
Letter from Financial Guru;
January 20, 2008
S&P 500 Index: 1325.19
Recent stock market weakness has exceeded our expectations. The S&P 500 Index has declined 15.3% from its record closing high of 1565.15 registered on October 9, 2007. Investor confidence has been shaken by news of huge mortgage related losses at major Wall Street banking and brokerage institutions, along with concern about economic growth in 2008 as consumers struggle to pay high energy bills and deal with the fallout from the housing recession.
Although our sentiment indicators are in favorable territory, we note that selling pressure has increased, which calls into question the area at which a bottom will develop. We recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing until a definitive bottom area is established. This should take place as a process which starts with the formation of a bottom area, followed by a short-term rally, followed by testing of the bottom area on reduced selling pressure. We are focusing our efforts on working to identify the area of a meaningful market bottom. There are no changes to our model portfolios.
We expect the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate by at least 50 basis points by January 30, with additional interest rate reductions to follow. There is no question that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve in terms of its response to the housing recession and the subprime mortgage collapse, and this has been a contributing factor to the market decline. A high level of stock market volatility is likely to continue until investor confidence begins to stabilize.
Let’s see how Asia leads us into tomorrow AM…
Let’s also see if the PPT is calling some of our friends here on the board before the open.
If they’re calling John, that is not a good sign.
Wonder how the Carribean trading desk is spending MLK day?
syb (225)-
I’m 48…and if I’m the oldest person there, I’m walking out the door.
#238
Hey, if you’re driving all they way up there, you might as well stay for a beer or 2…
Age is a relative number…..I have the back hair of a 26 year-old.
Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^MERV MerVal 1,876.870 3:00PM ET 125.590 (6.27%) Components, Chart, More
^BVSP Bovespa 53,709.11 3:15PM ET 3,797.29 (6.60%) Chart, More
^GSPTSE S&P TSX Composite 12,132.14 4:18PM ET 604.98 (4.75%) Components, Chart, More
^MXX IPC 25,284.881 4:05PM ET 1,428.949 (5.35%) Components, Chart, More
^GSPC 500 Index 1,325.19 12:51PM ET 8.06 (0.60%) Components, Chart, More
HEADLINES
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Today, Mon, Jan 21, 2008
• ^MXX Mexican stocks drop 5.35 pct on US recession fears
at Reuters (Mon 4:06pm)
• ^MXX Mexican stocks tumble 5 pct on U.S. recession fears
at Reuters (Mon 3:17pm)
NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures sank in holiday-shortened trading on Monday as fear of a U.S. recession gripped investors, indicating Wall Street was likely to join a global equity markets plunge that may usher in a bear market when trading resumes on Tuesday.
While cash equity markets were shut for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, index futures were very active in electronic trading through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. U.S. stock markets reopen on Tuesday.
The sell-off in futures tracked losses in global equities, as the MSCI’s main index of world stocks hit its lowest level in more than a year. World stocks nose-dived as investors worried a deteriorating U.S. economy would drag other regions down with it.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 closed down 5.8 percent, and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei average .N225 earlier lost 3.86 percent to close at a two-year low.
If U.S. stocks open on Tuesday at the levels futures are currently indicating, it would push major indexes dangerously close to bear market territory — or a 20 percent drop from their peak in October. That would mark the death of the bull market that began in early October 2002.
Not to worry Clot we maybe outnumbered but not out gunned.
243….firearms must be checked at the door.
(230) mike (238) Clot – I will probably not be flying in for the festivities…But I could help bring that number up a bit at 59 then Clot wouldn’t bail…
#238 Clot-
Don’t worry I’m older.
Sheesh; so far it looks like my estimate of 32 was way low
(247) Sybarite – Yeah, but I’m not here usually. I have the day off so I just got back from celebrating Martin Luther Lunch Day….Now it’s time to post the grades and begin reading “Crash Proof” by Schiff. Amazon was kind enough to send me a copy. Do ya’ think it’s a bit to late for that..??
I may be low at 35 est.!
Essex Your spoiling all the fun.But then again booze & guns don’t mix well.
#54 grim How would something likr that work?
#251 grim:Sorry I see it was answered already.
#241,
How does this related to NJ RE market? How about keeping this forum on RE topic?
# 176
I hate wearing socks, actually. As for the blazer, in this weather I prefer a nice black cashmere one.
From Bloomberg:
CIBC May Add to Writedowns After Insurer Downgraded
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the country’s worst-performing bank stock over the past year, may take more writedowns on its U.S. subprime investments after Ambac Financial Group Inc. became the first bond insurer to lose its AAA debt rating, analysts said.
Canadian Imperial, which has announced about $3.2 billion in pretax costs from declines in subprime mortgages, may have additional writedowns of as much as C$4 billion ($3.87 billion) if its bond insurers falter, analysts including Ohad Lederer at Veritas Investment Research said.
The two largest insurers, Ambac and MBIA Inc., are facing losses from the guarantees they made on mortgage-related debt, and Fitch Ratings lowered Ambac two levels to AA on Jan. 18. Toronto-based Canadian Imperial hasn’t identified its five AAA- rated bond insurers in the U.S.
“Further writedowns are certainly a possibility, especially when you’re talking about the pressure and concerns about the credibility of large” insurers like Ambac and MBIA, Edward Jones & Co. analyst Craig Fehr said in an interview.
mike (250)-
Huh?
“But then again booze & guns don’t mix well.”
C’mon man, this is America. Booze/guns…hot dogs/apple pie/Chevrolet.
Drink booze, fire gun. No problem.
#136 BC Bob There seems little doubt that the fiscal package announced by the U.S. government on Friday was too little too late without the immediate implementation of a 50 basis point cut in the Fed rate to rally the U.S. economy,” said David Buik at Cantor Index.”
And we get the 50 bp cut and then whst David?
So much for this being a “subprime” problem.
Unless someone snuck these subprime loans into a prime securitization…
From Fitch:
Fitch Affirms 48 & Downgrades 25 from 13 J.P. Morgan 2006 Prime Transactions
Fitch Ratings has affirmed 48, downgraded 25 and placed 2 classes on Rating Watch Negative from the following J.P. Morgan Mortgage
…
The underlying collateral for the aforementioned transactions consist primarily of fixed and adjustable-rate, conventional, fully amortizing, first lien residential mortgage loans extended to prime borrowers. The mortgage loans were either originated by various sources.
Question:
How bad will it be on Wall Street tomorrow and how bad will it have to be before sellers, sellers’ agents, etc. start to feel the house of cards begin to tumble and begin that headlong rush to price right and sell?
By the time January investment statements get to people in February, I suspect many people will feel less secure in their wealth and may not feel like they can stare down below-asking-price offers.
#166 Thanks Clot
#254
Is the shirt Brooks Brothers, Ralph Lauren or custom-made?
CLOT 256 Indoors!I guees I should bring my cousin oh I mean my wife.
mike (262)-
Guns work the same indoors as out. As far as your cousin/wife situation, it sounds like a Sussex problem to me. I heard that sorta thing goes on there. :)
Clot263 There is that ceiling thing.Sussex is north not south,no banjos,or accents.But we do get some nascar spill over from PA.
Hackettstown Comp Killer
55 Scenic Ct, Hackettstown NJ
Purchased: 7/25/2005
Purchase Price: $435,000
MLS# 2418915
Sold: 1/16/2008
Sale Price: $407,000
From NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/21/nyregion/21budget.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
njcoast Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 10:27 am
I’m going if Reinvestor101 goes. He can be the entertainment
Just can’t leave me alone can you? I DEFINITELY plan on being there.
241 was answer to; 337 Wonder how the Carribean trading desk is spending MLK day?
Market watch appears to be related to R.E. in the sense that mortgages are a failing part of Investments and negative implications in Stock Market may negatively influence house prices.
241 was answer to; 237 Wonder how the Carribean trading desk is spending MLK day?
Market watch appears to be related to R.E. in the sense that mortgages are a failing part of Investments and negative implications in Stock Market may negatively influence house prices.
#267
Excellent!
mike (264)-
“But we do get some nascar spill over from PA.”
That’s my idea of collateral damage.
# 261 “njcoast Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 5:23 pm
#254
Is the shirt Brooks Brothers, Ralph Lauren or custom-made?”
I laughed aloud when I saw that question. For casual use of a sport jacket, like hanging around town or at a bar, Lauren is just fine. For a suit, custom is all that really makes sense, no?
#261 response continued. As far as a really nice fabric for casual use, I don’t think that one can beat a linen/silk blend. It breaths in the summer, is warm in the winter, and is as tough as iron. They cost a bit more than cotton but they last forever, thus freeing up $ for investing in RE.
Aussie and NZ markets down 3% after open…
Re: get together
Have ya’ll started visiting the gym, for that pumped, athlelic look?
Just in, from the Fed.
$100b operation tomorrow morning. There have been minor changes to the collateral accepted at the
pawn shopwindow.The following items will now be accepted:
Scrap metal
Baseball cards
Comic books
Old jewelry
Deposit bottles
Grim,
Where do you look to find out Dow Jones futures, I read a blog in NJ statehouse that stated they are down over 500 points, could that be real?
Jim
# 276 confederate dollars?
Would anyone care to guess how much market cap was lost in today’s global decline?
All disclaimers…Can anyone explain…
They talk about investing in foreign markets ..because their money is “worth” more (less inflated) does that mean no matter what happens for now in their markets?
Shore (276)-
When that happens, I’m in the money!
BTW…for a guy who grew up poor, you sure got well-schooled in haberdashery. Very nice style choices.
Jim,
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
I understand that in europe alone it was over $300 billion.
Just got off the phone with Ben, they’ll take confederates at face value. He murmured something about “full faith and credit” and then hung up on me
#283
Meh. Chump change.
#273
You had better dress down for the get together- you’ll stick out like a sore thumb among the squirrel hunters and gun toting swillers.
Jim (227)
Go to http://www.fxstreet.com
On left side, click on Quotes, then, Indices Futures.
Lookin’ quite ugly right now.
Become the holder in due course of your straw man! The time is nigh.
coast (283)- Don’t worry. I clean up nice. Can even pass as a member of the hoi polloi for a day or two.
# 281
I learned years ago that when it came to , say, tools. If one buys top-quality goods, they last and last and end up being less expensive than the cheep-@ssed ones.
Growing up poor, when it came to clothes, I always had to take whatever I could afford, or a relative was getting rid of. Over time, one learns a bit about how clothing is supposed to feel. I still remember the first time I felt the “hand” of a nice suit; I thought there was something wrong with it. It is funny to look back. I would not say that I have outstanding taste in clothes, or that I go out of my way to spend alot on clothing. That said, in recent years I have not flinched at spending $ on nice things, if I thought they brought me value.
This is the same approach I being to RE. Affordability is not the issue, and one with which RE agents need to come to grips. Just because one can afford something does not mean that they should or will buy it. It has to be a good value. I wish taxing authorities would also get past the “ability to pay” fetish they have with respect to whether taxes should be raised.
Grim, Orion ,
Thanks for the info, it is scary…it seems the real estate bubble has merged with the stock market. Panic, looks possible.
Thanks again , JIM
I’m not going to this shindig. I’d be the shortest person there, and no, I haven’t been to the gym for that “toned” look.
Plus, I’m 44, and yes, my brother and I shot squirrel a couple of times from the upstairs back porch, but only when times were really tough. My mother made a good stew with biscuits in the pressure cooker. None of the kids who used to hang out ever even knew it was Smokey or Ben, the critters they used to feed every day.
Who’s the guy with the 4’11” wife. Is she going?
# 286 I wager that I am one of the few people here who has eaten possum and watched someone skin a squirrel. Frankly, possum cant hold a candle to goat.
At the end of last year, I began wondering if the DJIA might close 2008 someplace between 12,000 and 12250. At this point I am beginning to think we might see 10,800 by election day.
We began the year thinking we would pick up another place sometime between late spring and early autumn. Now? Whew, I doubt we will do anything before 2009. Has anyone else recently reassessed the wisdom of weekend/vacation RE purchases?
Rabbit, tastes just like chicken.
I just know it does not look good globaly …ohh well they to have to pay a price!!!
# 289
Shore Guy
And do you pronounce buffet like BOO-fay?
Did anyone see the article in the recent US News about the rat catchers in southern India. Given the choice of their stew and possum, I would crawl through glass for the possum, as awful as possum is.
Could someone pull price/history for GSMLS #2453543?
Thanks in advance!!
At least that is meat.. Did you catch this one?
Chopped cardboard, softened in an industrial chemical and made tasty with pork flavoring, is a main ingredient in batches of steamed buns sold in a Beijing neighborhood, state television said.
The report, aired late Wednesday on China Central Television, highlights the country’s perennial problems with food safety despite continuing government efforts to improve the situation.
Countless small, often illegally run operations exist across China and make money cutting corners by using inexpensive ingredients or unsavory substitutes. They are almost impossible to regulate.
China Central Television’s undercover investigation report features the shirtless, shorts-clad maker of the buns – called baozi – talking about how the product was sold in a neighborhood in Beijing’s sprawling Chaoyang district.
The hidden camera follows the man, whose face is not shown, into a ramshackle building where steamers are filled with the fluffy white buns, traditionally stuffed with minced pork.
The surroundings are filthy, with water puddles and piles of old furniture and cardboard on the ground.
“What’s in the recipe?” the reporter asks. “Six to four,” the man says.
“You mean 60 percent cardboard? What is the other 40 percent?” asks the reporter. “Fatty meat,” the man replies.
The bun maker and his assistants then give a demonstration on how the product is made.
Squares of cardboard picked from the ground are first soaked to a pulp in a plastic basin of caustic soda – a chemical base commonly used in manufacturing paper and soap – then chopped into tiny morsels with a cleaver. Fatty pork and powdered seasoning are stirred in.
(299) Oh Grim, that’s just plain….grim.
DINJ,
6 Hillview Terrace
Listed: 10/15/2007
OLP: $379,000
LP: $375,000
DOM: 98
Looks like an estate sale.
Clifton Comp Killer
109 McCosh, Clifton NJ
(Bordering Upper Montclair)
Purchased: 2/27/2007
Purchase Price: $470,000
MLS# 2468778
Current asking: $450,000
Ok OK I’ll be brave and ask :
With all this Global news what will housing prices’s do in NJ. Please don’t yell at me I am just asking!!!
JMS 303 Give you one guess.
Just me,
Futures traders are betting the NY area market will be down more than 10% by November of 2009. Down almost 12% by 2012, but nobody here wants to hear that.
https://njrereport.com/files/1-8-2008_TFS_Housing_Metrics.pdf
# 296
Gag me with a fork. lol
Grim305 A bit conservative wouldn’t you say.
grim #299: At least that is meat.. Did you catch this one?
Chopped cardboard, softened in an industrial chemical and made tasty with pork flavoring, is a main ingredient in batches of steamed buns sold in a Beijing neighborhood, state television said.
I’m no fan of lowering costs via neoliberal end-runs around regulations on quality (and labor and pollution and …) but this may have been a hoax.
http://www.museumofhoaxes.com/hoax/weblog/permalink/cardboard_bun_caper/
Or is this a new one?
# 299 “grim Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 7:11 pm
At least that is meat.. Did you catch this one?”
It was, as I recall, sometime during the ’70s that a U.S. bread was found to include sawdust. THe name ROman Meal comes to mind, but I am not sure if that was it. Someone with better memories of the ’70s might know for sure which bread it was.
HOLY SH^T, DJ futures are down OVER 500 points, rate cut could be sooner than expected!
Savers getting screwd again.
JIM
Holy cr*p – worldwide inflation escalating, rates less likely to be cut!
Shore (292)-
“Frankly, possum cant hold a candle to goat.”
If it has skin, I’ve seen it skinned. However, possum isn’t worth the time to skin. That’s some downmarket meat, if I ever tasted it.
R U READY TO DANCE – BLACK TUESDAY HERE WE COME> As Rock Hudson once said “the sooner I find a bottom, the better” I think we will find one this week, and a hard bottom at that!!!
On Monday, Britain’s benchmark FTSE-100 slumped 5.5 percent to 5,578.20, France’s CAC-40 Index tumbled 6.8 percent to 4,744.15, and Germany’s blue-chip DAX 30 plunged 7.2 percent to 6,790.19.
In Asia, India’s benchmark stock index tumbled 7.4 percent, while Hong Kong’s blue-chip Hang Seng index plummeted 5.5 percent to 23,818.86, its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH:US): The investment banking company and other financial institutions may be holding a worthless $4.6 billion bridge-equity loan in Archstone-Smith Trust, a real-estate investment trust, Barron’s reported, without citing anyone. Lehman, Bank of America Corp., and Barclays Plc may not have sold most of the loan to institutional investors after real estate investment trusts fell, Barron’s said. Lehman shares fell $1.41 to $53.25, while Bank of America fell 94 cents to $35.97. Barclays American depositary receipts, which each represent 4 ordinary shares, fell $1.36 to $34.85.
NJ patient– that is the way it should be handled, raise rates would be fine with me.Valley National bank is now offering refinancing 30 year mtg. for $99 dollars, rate 5.75%
Jim
clot:
Pret-a-Doucher?
Ready to…..
Goat, the other dark meat.
#313 – see #22
yes!
Asia opened ugly
patient (311)-
If I were you, I wouldn’t be making any investments based on that expectation.
“I laughed aloud when I saw that question. For casual use of a sport jacket, like hanging around town or at a bar, Lauren is just fine. For a suit, custom is all that really makes sense, no?”
No.
Carnage at the shore
Corlies Ave-Allenhurst (beach block)
Purchased-12/05- $2,600,000
Adj. mortgage- $2,000,000.
Listed- 3/07- $3,200,000
Closed-10/07- $1,850,000
5% realtor commission-$92,500
RTF- $19,860.
For a loss of $862,360.00 not counting interest on mtg, taxes and improvements.
Does anyone know of any good Banking ETF’s? Call me crazy, but I’m thinking banking will offer some nice discounts in the near future.
All disclaimers.
320 clot
Thanks. I don’t intend to. I don’t even believe it – it was fun to say, however, after reading Bloomberg article on the topic.
A boy can only hope….
315 Jim
It should be, but won’t.
That was my fantasy post for the day.
Ah, well.
The fire department will be showing up with flamethrowers as always.
Pat #10
“Flippers often didn’t own the homes they abandon, nor did they pay taxes.”
In New Jersey and New York, a flipper buys a property before he sells it. So the flipper does own the home and pay real estate tax on it. Only in a few places, such as Miami and Las Vegas, could a flipper assign a contract and collect a fee before he closed.
A flipper of an existing property usually performs a renovation before selling it. He fills an useful niche when he buys a blighted POS that most buyers would avoid and brings it up to a modern standard. During the holding period, he pays real estate tax to the town and the county. He pays sales tax to the state based on the cost of building materials. He pays income tax on his capital gain to the state and federal governments. In addition, the real estate transaction itself is often taxed.
A flipper of a new construction condo, who adds value by increasing the liquidity of the local real estate market, also pays real estate and income taxes.
I’m not saying that flippers deserve Nobel peace prizes. But it slurs real estate entrepreneurs when you blame them for creating social ills and accuse them, hilariously, of bringing down international banking systems.
Mrs. patient and I will see y’all at the meetup (unless it’s too early in the day – we have a kiddie birthday party to attend).
“But we do get some nascar spill over from PA.”
PA: Two New Yorks separated by Alabama.
323#, XLF for major banks and brokerages, RKH for major banks. if you want to 2x leverage, UYG is the one.
All disclaimers apply.
“mikeinwaiting Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 5:24 pm
CLOT 256 Indoors!I guees I should bring my cousin oh I mean my wife.”
Outed!! You’re Rudy Giuliani!!
I found something worse than waterboarding….
I was in one of these insipid Macy’s Kids stores…..I was forced to remain there for roughly 45 minutes. The soundsystem was blasting versions of the greatest hits of 1999 & 2000. 100% pure Britney, ‘NSync, Backstreet Boys and assorted slop. EXCEPT, the music was all karaoke versions sung by 8-10 year old :( :( :( :(
oh lordy chi
glad you didn’t off yourself or others
Well executed with an MLK theme…
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01212008/news/regionalnews/bill_has_a_dream_474243.htm
KBE
KBW Bank ETF – Good one to go all in for a bank ETF – crazy high dividend – if we get 500 down. KB has one or two other FS ETFs
Read WSJ where they talk about income producing ETS most are FS related.
Dow could drop a 1,000 points Tuesdayhttp://www.247wallst.com/2008/01/a-1000-point-dr.html
I would not doubt that market could also be closed down tommorrow.
Hold onto your hats , this will quicken real estate fall, no doubt about it.
Jim
pret (326)-
NJ has no law that I’m aware of that bars assignation of contracts. A contractual document that establishes equitable title is considered marketable personal property.
330 njp I wish!His wife what 10-15 yrs younger,plenty of cash,& a shot at the White House.A guy could do alot worse.
njpatient Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 8:20 pm
oh lordy chi
glad you didn’t off yourself or others
nj: just a warm up for tomorrow….
Pat,
Short is not a good enough reason to not show, I am older and only slightly taller ( slightly ) I am going if my ride goes.
KL
PS: I am betting the average age is 40
pret (326)-
“RE entrepreneurs” and “flippers” are not one and the same.
A RE entrepreneur enhances a community and creates value by making an investment meant to last more than 30 days. A flipper uses smoke and mirrors in order to buy property as low as possible, then find a greater fool as fast as possible.
kl (339)-
Are there gonna be midgets at the GTG?
Cool!
Clot, the contracts I’ve read for new construction condos in NJ say the contract can’t be assigned. So a buyer needs to close or walk away from his deposit, which is usually 10%.
It think it is simply customary to disallow assignments around here, while it is customary to allow them in South Florida and Vegas.
pret (342)-
TOL and HOV pioneered the “anti-flipping” clauses in NJ and many other places, but assignation is not prohibited by law.
BTW…in Somerset Co during the early phases of the boom, TOL and other builders would regularly waive the anti-flip contractual provisions if buyers objected during attorney review (what did they care whether somebody actually lived in these dumps?). An old broker pal of mine is styling on a beach every day, thanks
to being able to corner eight prime pre-construction lots in The Hills.
“mikeinwaiting Says:
January 21st, 2008 at 8:24 pm
330 njp I wish!His wife what 10-15 yrs younger,plenty of cash,& a shot at the White House.A guy could do alot worse.”
I was referring to his first wife, who was also his cousin, rather than his third wife. McCain’s second wife – now there’s a hotty with bucks!!
Consumers Retrench As Economy Weakens
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080121/ap_on_bi_ge/recession_watch_consumers_react;_ylt=AvfFvQrKNVUCNmZLe39LCVms0NUE
Just remembered…TOL and KHOV often prohibited the public from flipping, because they were letting insiders contract for all the prime units…in order to flip them.
take a look at Bloomberg Asia ..its all dipped into red :(
will be interesing tuesday ,,???
hope you all have cash in hand….
there are going to be some good sales tomorrow on Wall St.
SAS
SRS
Guess other people are using the term;
Economic Treason: A Conspiracy from Within
Introduction-The Economic War
In the aftermath of 9/11, the greatest threat to our way of life is not a direct military or terroristic threat. It is an adversary that has managed to manipulate economics, and influence large, multinational corporations. Surviving in a Global Economy is not as easy as it looks, even for the last Super Power, or so it seems. Are we really a large, unwitting victim that has been duped into these grossly one-sided trade arrangements? Or have we simply not been good stewards of the US economy. While predatory trade & economic tactics, and economic espionage have existed for centuries; the overwhelming evidence suggests that the US did not take the necessary actions to prevent the economic crisis that devastated entire business sectors. Nothing is in place to protect our economy from external predatory economic tactics and trade warfare. Why was there no real attempt to assert trade measures when huge trade deficits have been racked up year after year with no end in sight? Who is profiting while literally millions of Americans struggle for financial survival? Either we do not have the political will to protect our economic independence, or the influence of international business interests at both state and federal government levels has rendered our economy completely vulnerable.
In addition, emerging economies like China and Saudi Arabia each accumulating hundreds of billions US Dollars in cash reserves, and governments that are straining to keep up with their rapidly growing capitalist economies. The harshest reality that we have to come to terms with is that we have to change our rules of engagement when it comes to global markets and economics, and the corporate push for globalization. As a nation with the most powerful military on the planet, our most exposed target and greatest vulnerability as a nation, is our economy. Consequently, a sophisticated enemy will never expose themselves to our military might. Instead, they will most likely strike at our economy by using our own open markets against us, while ensuring our full cooperation and support.
[N]ations knew, as well as [ourselves], what we meant by “free trade” was nothing more nor less than, by means of the great advantage we enjoyed, to get a monopoly of all their markets for our manufactures, and to prevent them, one and all, from ever becoming manufacturing nations.
– quote from an unknown British leader shortly after the War of 1812
The 21st Century has presented the US with challenges that we have not seen before, and have not yet prepared. New economic forces, like China and the EU, have come onto the scene and changed both the geo-political and world economic landscapes. In addition, international opinion and influence have been felt in the most recent 2004 presidential election, unlike any presidential election in the past. The international community and the UN have sought an influence in determining the US leadership, and have pursued a campaign of vilification to undermine the re-election of President Bush. Most people are familiar with the concept of predatory economics as a pricing tactic that companies will use to undermine a competitor in a given market, or even attempt to drive the competitor out of business. On a macro level, countries act very much like businesses and rely on the same tactics on a much larger scale to help their businesses gain a foothold in new foreign markets. In international trading terms, this tactic is commonly known as “dumping”, which is a practice typically used to overwhelm a competing domestic manufacturer/supplier that simply can not match the prices.
In many cases, these foreign competitors are supported by their governments using both financial resources and covert intelligence resources to conduct economic espionage, stealing trade secrets and business strategies from unsuspecting businesses.
Treason by definition: [1] the betrayal of trust, [2] the offense of attempting by overt acts to overthrow the government of the state to which the offender owes allegiance or [3] to kill or personally injure the sovereign or his family.1
But in a free market-based democracy, where the “injury” can in fact be measured by substantial economic losses, and gross disregard for the general welfare of the millions of Americans, then we can reasonably examine the material impact of predatory trade and economic tactics, performed in collusion with foreign entities, that are directed at and result in undermining both the economic foundation and the economic independence of our society.
Not surprisingly, the global free trade movement has given rise to “plunder by trade” tactics, and a new age of mercantilism. Under the guise of globalization, we have seen the advance of multinational companies in developing countries that do little to prevent the growing problem of forced labor among women and children, a modern form of slavery, to meet the continuing demand for new sources of cheap labor. Somehow, we have rationalized ourselves to the point where we are convinced that exploitation of women and children is not our responsibility if it occurs outside the US, even while we knowingly purchase the products that keep them enslaved. The US economy is now in the middle of a geo-political and geo-economic crossfire, and a new world economic order is now taking shape. The information I present is all based on current research and actual events.
The question I ask is, why has US federal government not taken any steps to prevent further trade deficits from crippling an economy that is already vulnerable? No economy can survive such a vast trade imbalance for long periods.
Widespread national guilt, self-loathing, terminal apathy and decades of global stewardship have created the conditions for a perfect economic storm in the US. A storm whose effects ravaged a once strong economy, and whose reverberations have been felt from coast to coast, throughout the Midwest and down to Texas. The steady decline of the dollar against other world currencies is creating a fear among the economists that know how important foreign investment has been to the US economy. When and if foreign investors decide to abandon the dollar for a stronger currency, such as the Euro, another potentially devastating sell-off, in both US equities and currency, is a very real possibility.
The more I evaluated that various cause and effect issues, like terrorist strikes on economic targets and factoring currency valuation fluctuations, the more apparent it became that the normal laws of capitalism and economics are not being allowed to follow their normal course. The most flagrant offender is China with red hot economic growth and a restrained valuation of their Yuan, which make Chinese products artificially cheaper in the US market, even after much of the US manufacturing base has evaporated. After more than ten years of this predatory trading tactic, which used to be called “dumping”, it is safe to say that government trade regulators have fallen asleep at the wheel. Any trade policy that requires sustaining a growing trade deficit for a future trade payoff that takes more than 10 years to materialize is a bad bet that mortgages the future for an uncertain payoff.
I am so lucky that my offers in 2 houses were not accepted
Confused,
hey bloke…
next time just post the title & link…
spanks ; )
SAS
SAS bargain basement pricess?? wink wink
Another interesting article on Economic Treason. Never realized so much was written on this topic. This one keys into our loss of engineering jobs.
http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts07162005.html
yup, I remeber when the market took a dump in 2001, nobody picked up… instead alot ran to RE instead, when they should of picked up on the panic.
SAS
grim, #284
Peeing, just absolutely PEEING in my pants right now.
sl
oh man – now you made me have to scroll back up to 284
asia market down another 5% on average. s&p futures down 6%. cannot wait for tuesday market open
# 331 ” was in one of these insipid Macy’s Kids stores…..I was forced to remain there for roughly 45 minutes. The soundsystem was blasting versions of the greatest hits of 1999 & 2000. 100% pure Britney, ‘NSync, Backstreet Boys and assorted slop. EXCEPT, the music was all karaoke versions sung by 8-10 year old ”
I think Dante wrota about that. Wasn’t that one of the circles of hell. Well that and buying in 2006 and trying to get out with a profit.
Two weeks ago, I said to myself only, that the DOW would go to 11,000. Fearing I might sound totally insane, I kept it to myself. I no longer feel this way.
Has anyone here ever seen or heard of DOW futures down 500? I wasn’t around in 1927.
SAS – bargains galore!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22771281
This week could mark the end of the bull market for Wall Street, with U.S. stocks likely to
join a global equity market plunge triggered by fears of a U.S. recession.
Cash equity markets were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. But Wall Street stock index futures tumbled more than 4 percent, suggesting a sharply lower open for Wall Street on Tuesday, after routs in Asian and European stock markets on Monday.
Investors said last week a $150 billion White House rescue plan was too little too late, as more and more data signaled the U.S. economy was headed for recession.
If U.S. stocks open at the levels futures were indicating, it would push major indexes dangerously close to bear market territory — or a 20 percent drop from their peak in October. That would mark the death of the bull market that was born in early October 2002.
“What we are seeing today are more signs that the shock waves from the U.S. are still expanding throughout the world, and we are still in the eye of the storm as far as credit issues are concerned,” Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto, said on Monday.
[snip]
I will be very interested to hear from Grim, Clot, and the other RE profs here about whether the stock market drops cause sellers’ eyes to grow as large as dinner plates.
Re: Grande at Hanover (Overpriced)
LP $585K Delancy New LP $449K
LP $585K Emerson New LP 469K
The selling prices are just way off considering the current housing market and the economic conditions. Initial plan was for 16 buildings but only two are build. The swimming pool and recreation center is not done. The sales people mentioned that construction for the pool and recreation center will be started after 6 months. However, it totally depends on whether D R Horton survives bankruptcy. Whenever the remaining buildings are done it will further depress prices of the condos.
They are 1 and 2 BRs with high prices, high taxes and high condo maintenance fee. Besides the whole place looks like a construction zone. High risk for families with small children because of close proxmity to Rte 10 and construction material all around.
I don’t think the DOW will drop 500pts tomorrow.
But, I can see the DOW going back down to 11k.
SAS
362 shore
you and me both
sorry njp – I just am picturing the dollar index in the low 70’s. [flush…..] that’s the sound of the value of a buck.
to go along with that loud sucking noise…
Seat belt on, cash in hand…tomorrow’s gonna be interesting!!! And I am chained to the PIT (my ER) for the 7am to 4pm, DRAT!!
sl
I meant the DOW futures only. Not the actual point drop.
Re: Grande at Hanover (Overpriced)
LP $585K Delancy New LP $449K
LP $585K Emerson New LP 469K
The selling prices are just way off considering the current housing market and the economic conditions. Initial plan was for 16 buildings but only two are build. The swimming pool and recreation center is not done. The sales people mentioned that construction for the pool and recreation center will be started after 6 months. However, it totally depends on whether D R Horton survives bankruptcy. Whenever the remaining buildings are done it will further depress prices of the condos.
They are 1 and 2 BRs with high prices, high taxes and high condo maintenance fee. Besides the whole place looks like a construction zone. High risk for families with small children because of close proxmity to Rte 10 and construction material all around.
There’s nothing grand about route 10. It’s my second least favorite highway, the first being route 46.
damn it…we’re seriously f—ed…
WSJ
Credit Scare Spreads in U.S., Abroad Loan Terms Tighten For Smaller Businesses;
Recipe for Slower Growth
By TIMOTHY AEPPEL
January 22, 2008
The credit crunch that was sparked by problems with residential mortgages is spreading to the broader economy — with banks making it harder and more expensive for some small and midsize businesses to borrow.
While companies with strong balance sheets still can borrow what they need at good rates, others are beginning to feel the chill. In particular, start-up and smaller companies are finding that banks are setting higher rates, seeking more collateral or lending smaller amounts.
[edit]
re: markets….I less concerned about the drop and more interested in the what and where……I have my shopping list ready, but honestly, there may be better deals in February than tomorrow….
cf, you beat me to it. I was just pondering telling sl to be glad she had other carnage to keep her busy tomorrow.
Bargain shopping is best done after the rush.
just remember that “futures” are a thinly traded market and you have the dual effects of stale U.S. data from Friday, concurrent with a roiling of the world markets……add a touch of adverse selection (i.e. the people messing in futures are those motivated and/or desperate enough to trade given the environment I just described)……let the market open be the market open….screw this data parsing garbage…
Just in case anyone cares ,,THE LIGHTS are on in just about every floor at the WFC complex. Buildings are buzzing and NOT with cleaning crew.
HHHMMM some traders have tough time to sleep?
373#, generaly traders love volatility while investors (fund managers) hate it.
“I have a dream”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01212008/news/regionalnews/bill_has_a_dream_474243.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/business/22agent.html?hp
Looks like the lawyers are the only recession proof community :)
If the Dow can hold off an early drop , Europe will strengthen behind it. Oil and Gold are both down. Predict the Dow at 200-300 down for the day.
370, 371
Thanks chifi and Pat! I know. I will be waiting. You don’t wanna know about the carnage I see…
I almost tossed my cookies yesterday when a 74 year old lady “passed” what they (GYN) think(s) is a uterine sarcoma and it landed on the exam room floor.
Housekeeping/maintenance had to clean the room. I nearly vomited.
.They don’t pay me enough to do this job.
.For real.
sl
Stu – you still in India????
Hear the market opened down nearly 10% and shut down immediately (reported on Bloomberg tv just now)
Bloomberg just announced that 5 trillion has evaporated in global markets this month.
It would not surprise me to see a rate cut tomorrow prior to the open.
381
begin to think probable
(379) Yes, India’s circuit breaker went into effect when it dropped 12% at the open.
begin to think probable
Agree.
sl (378)-
Did that lady feel better afterwards?
clot: her pain got better (went away)
mine quadrupled.
GYN admitted her to the hospital (thank god!)
sl