From the Record:
Desperate owners turn to short sales
What do you do if you’re a single mother who can’t afford your mortgage payments of more than $3,700 a month, but can’t sell your house for anywhere near the amount you owe on the mortgage?
That’s the dilemma facing Anna, a Bergenfield woman who bought her Cape Cod, no money down, for $445,000 two years ago. Now, in a much slower market, her real estate agent says she’d be lucky to get $380,000.
The solution for Anna, who asked to be identified by her first name only, is the one being used by an increasing number of distressed homeowners: a short sale.
…
The number of short sales is on the rise, both nationally and in North Jersey, though they still make up only a small fraction of all sales.“The values of a lot of these houses were inflated as a result of the real estate boom. Now we’re in a bust. The values aren’t there. It’s all starting to catch up with everyone,” said Frank Ciambrone, a Rochelle Park real estate lawyer.
And it may be getting worse. Bob Caruso, national servicing executive at Bank of America, said requests for short sales have accelerated over the past year.
“We expect 2008 to be a very tough year, especially if the job situation worsens,” Caruso said. “It’s one thing to have house prices decline, but if unemployment increases, that’s really a deadly mix.”
…
“A lot of people making $80,000 a year were buying $600,000 houses because of the interest-only loans and teaser rates that were in place,” said Angelo Di Ianni of New Century Realty in Clifton. But eventually the interest rates adjust upward, and the homeowner has to start paying on the principal.“I don’t know how some of these people got a mortgage to begin with,” said Jeff Bennett, owner of New Jersey Home Relief in Wayne, a company that works with short sellers.
…
Another short seller, a Lodi woman who asked not to be identified by name, owes $620,000 on her two-family house, which she bought in 2006. She’s a saleswoman who works on commission, and got a so-called stated income mortgage — one where the borrower is not required to offer proof of income. She said the mortgage broker encouraged her to overstate her income to qualify for the loan.But when her commissions slowed down, she found she could not afford the monthly payments of $6,100, even with her tenant’s rent check. She found a buyer willing to pay $525,000 — which she said was in the market range for the house — but in the long wait for approval from her lender, the buyer gave up on the deal. Now she is looking for a new buyer.
“I’m partly to blame,” the homeowner said. “I should have known better.” But she thinks the lender should have known better, too: “I should never have been able to get that loan, and I’m sorry I did.”
too f***ing bad…
$6k a month? Anyone who owes that better be seeing $20k a month in income.
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=4196835
Earlier in the week someone called this one. Banks bridging the gap by charging higher fees.
I can’t say I really give a Sh*t about people who drove the prices up with ‘creative financing’….and really scr*wed the entire market….she can rent for the next 10 years for all I care.
20K more like 12K max so one of the couples need to be making 80ish and then live frugally. Not the best plan but for the “forever” house might be woth it
Jim Grant calls it an invitation to fraud. “You apply to a bank, or a mortgage broker for a loan. And you would fill out a form. And you would say, ‘I have an income of, oh, $400,000 a year.’ They say, ‘You do? Fine. Just sign right there.’ And they would nod, and because they were being paid, not by the veracity of the information, but by the consummation of the deal. The lending office would say, ‘Ah. You have verified this?’ ‘Why, yes, we have.’ And the lending officer would say, ‘Great. So do I,’” Grant says.
“And he got a cut, too?” Kroft asks.
“Yes, oh, yes. Everyone gets a cut,” Grant says.
Almost all of the people involved in the transactions made huge amounts of money, then passed the risk onto someone else. Instead of keeping the dicey loans in their own portfolios, the big banks and giant mortgage companies that originally underwrote them, resold the mortgages to big New York investment houses.
Firms like Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch sliced the loans into little pieces and packaged them up with other investments, then sold them to their best customers around the world as high-yield mortgage-backed securities, turning sows’ ears into silk purses, all with the blessing of rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s.
“At every step in the way, somebody has his or her hand out, getting paid. And everyone, for the time, is happy. The broker got paid. He or she was happy. The lending officer, ditto. The rating agencies got paid for passing judgment on these securities. They, too, were pleased, and their stockholders were happy. And on and on. And it would never end, except that it did,” Grant says.
Regardless of whether or not the current Government typed a bypass law legalizing the aforementioned, it is still Fraud. The end investor lost money based upon fraudulent activities. Grant left out one key piece of the Fraud, the Government who facilitated it. The Government’s roles was sometimes overt like nullifying the Glass-Steagall Act or prempting State Laws against predatory lending and sometimes covert like senile Greenspan abandoning his regulatory responsibilities. Those involved are the poster children for restoring Alcatraz.
Can someone pls provide info for:
MLS 2355435
MLS 2435559
MLS 2438841
address, DOM & any price adj history?
All in same complex, all but the $534k seem excessively overpriced.
I feel like I’m missing something. I’ve bought and sold 2 homes, and am working on buying our 3rd. In each case I’ve had to provide 3 months of bank statements to prove we had what we said we had, even though the credit reporting agencies independently verified our savings and great credit history. All 3 transactions have been since 2000. Where are these people getting these loans from?
I really have no sympathy for these people. I wish someone would write an article detailing what these people spent their HELOC money on. For some reason I think the majority of the cases will show waste and living beyond means, and not ‘family crisis’ and medical issues.
Anyone else watching the democratic primary debates? After hearing about the universal health care plans and mortgage crisis plans I think I may have to vote republican for the 1st time in my life :-(
4 Essex
D@mn straight.
This was on 60 minutes last night:
“House Of Cards: The Mortgage Mess”
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/25/60minutes/main3752515.shtml
you can watch the video too on that link.
SAS
Gonna be another fun week
20k jobs being cut in london (thank g*d that won’t happen in nyc)
I see an awful lot of BMW’s and Audi’s driving around NJ. I’d bet a lot of them were financed with HELOCs.
In the Record article, I love how the woman from Lodi is admitting to fraud. Is anything going to happen to her? No.
“Another short seller, a Lodi woman who asked not to be identified by name, owes $620,000 on her two-family house, which she bought in 2006. She’s a saleswoman who works on commission, and got a so-called stated income mortgage — one where the borrower is not required to offer proof of income. She said the mortgage broker encouraged her to overstate her income to qualify for the loan.”
Or Anna who bought a house with no money, teaser rate interest, but some how had the money for a fence and a kitchen update – say Hello to Heloc. I wonder how short this sale is really going to be.
Grim,
I wrote yesterday about this Irvine Housing Blog (From CA) that not only post the prices of the house over the years but all the Heloc’s against them. Is that info available for us in NJ? That would be a great thing to post/access to see the real losses/short sales in our area.
Yes the data is available, but it takes a considerable amount of effort to uncover and piece together these cases.
People were out in droves looking at houses. A friend whose house has been for sale since September had an open house. Twenty-one people showed up for it. She was really encouraged by this. I’m assuming many of these people are looking because of the low interest rates.
Grim, Do you need MLS-type access or is the info accessible to anyone somewhere on public databases?
From the APP:
Employers are paying more to get workers to sell homes, move
In what some analysts are calling the worst housing slump since the Great Depression, employers are paying more to get reluctant employees and new hires to sell their homes and relocate for work.
Employees are more reluctant to move because they worry about their ability to sell their homes without taking a loss.
Fourteen percent of employers say they’re more willing to pay to relocate new employees from another area to their company’s location this year compared with last year, according to a joint survey by Career-Builder.com and Apartments.com, and conducted by Harris Interactive.
12………HELOCs….make sense in certain situations…..first…let’s say that instead of a jumbo loan you bought a home that ‘needed work’ — and you were able to make the property better with a HELOC. Sure you have another payment to make, but you also have a nicer place at far less than the cost of a jumbo loan. Squeezing a car into a HELOC? I didn’t — but I suppose it wouldn’t have been the worst thing to do….if the rate was lower. Some very conservative people won’t finance a car at all…but I never really understood that. It is a ‘cost of living’. And there is better use for lump sums of cash.
16 grim
You need an intern
Like kramer on seinfeld
Grim, Do you need MLS-type access or is the info accessible to anyone somewhere on public databases?
Mortgage and deed records are all you need. They are both public records and can either be found online or with the help of the county clerk.
Morris, for example, makes mortgage and deed information available online:
http://mcclerkweb.co.morris.nj.us/or_wb1/or_sch_1.asp
“I’m assuming many of these people are looking because of the low interest rates.”
Unless it’s because now even the NAR says prices are plummeting. Were they wearing vulture suits?
I do have examples of heloc-hole-diggin’, but I don’t post details of properties I’m interested in.
Sellers have a knack for finding their own properties online. This site is crawled by Google regularly so it doesn’t take more than a few days for something said in the comments to get indexed. Semi-unique identifiers such as addresses and MLS numbers tend to pop right to the top of the search results.
eh, and all this time I was astonished at the number of people buying expensive houses. Sometimes I thought that I was really poor and low on the income scale and that everyone else had tons of money. I feel better now.
Heloc Hole? Yes indeed…..but the interest rate is firm…unlike credit cards….(the next big problem the banks are having) when a client has difficulty paying….let’s just jack up the rate to 31%….now the client will be really eager to pay! That is just good business. I am enjoying watching the banks…especially the bad ones…which is the 90% of most banks…..squirm and possibly default themselves….#ssholes.
Countrywide CEO to give up $37.5 million in payments
It’s about time this guy got the disrespect he deserves. The media loves to interview him as if he’s an expert on how to fix the problem. He’s one of the main people who created it in the first place
Clinton recently said his pay was outrageous, calling him “one of the principal architects of this whole house of cards.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWEN358520080128
I guess Bronze Mo’ didn’t make a Clinton campaign donation ;)
404 (8)-
Vote Republican? What’s the difference? Your kids get to pay for irresponsible spending instead of you. Wow, that’s conservative.
Want out from under The Man? Gotta leave the country.
Grim,
Re #24 – Do you not want that info associated with this site? I know over at Irvine there are lots of discussions regarding if it ethical to publish that info in such a high profile site. There have been times when people claiming to be the owners explained/defend what happened.
(26) Essex
Since the financial mess will take time to unwind, any estimates as to how long it will take before we know which banks are solvent? Will local credit unions fare any better?
“In what some analysts are calling the worst housing slump since the Great Depression”
[19],
More regarding the GD.
“Popular imagination has the Great Depression opening with a bang in October 1929. We forget that even by December of that year, the market had no idea what was really in store. After a period of wild, bipolar volatility, stocks had taken two big tumbles (a 12.8% drop on Oct. 28 and an 11.7% fall the next day) while the top bankers and “captains of industry” rushed to shore up the market. By November, the Dow had hit its low for the year at 198, down from the giddy September high of 381.”
“But, the financial pundits and government leaders of the day insisted, the economy’s fundamentals were still strong. Herbert Hoover — only nine months into his presidency — assembled leaders from the public and private sectors to create an economic-stimulus package. Among the measures, Time magazine reported at the time, was a promise from Congress to offer bipartisan support for a tax-cut package.”
“Also on the table was an assurance from the Federal Reserve that it would provide cheaper credit. Granted, the Fed had much less power over the money supply in those days, mainly because the amount of liquidity it could create was limited by the supply of gold it held to back the dollar.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/great-fiscal-stimulus-package/story.aspx?guid={D3B850E5-E05D-40DA-A630-42B3CB838AE9}&siteid=yahoomy
grim (22)-
But- as you mentioned- some counties in NJ have only partial online access to records. A few have no online access at all.
I trade Xmas cards with the Hunterdon county clerk. Spend more time there than in my living room.
Cindy (31)-
Credit unions should come out of this fairly well. Their mortgage lending, even at the height of the boom, was of the full-doc, conservative variety.
Most credit unions only offer 4-5 loan programs: 15, 30 and maybe a couple of ARMs.
Market’s unhappy again, Ben’s gonna have to do another 3/4% this week.
Do you not want that info associated with this site?
I don’t mind that at all.
I’m more concerned about undermining my negotiating position by discussing my deals (or my clients deals) online.
grim (36)-
I’m waiting for someone to accuse you or me of leveraging our access to mortgage data and lis pendens filings to obtain some sort of undue advantage in dealing with the public.
Never forget you’re on the dark side now. :)
#23
“Unless it’s because now even the NAR says prices are plummeting. Were they wearing vulture suits?”
Nope – no vulture suits. They have gotten some low balls which they have turned down. One was good in my opinion but wasn’t good enough for them. I think they’ll eventually have to settle for less than their best bid at this point.
I was having a e-mail conversation about housing and in particular why a home just sold in this former Fed economists neighborhood for 1.6 million a record for the block just last week and here is the response I got why he thinks houses will hold up in his tony neighborhood. Who is right the former Fed economist who is now a consultant with an $800 an hour bill rate or you and I? I guess in a few years we will know, I am betting on us.
“I do not think these people care about mansion taxes and rate changes. These people are buying for location for a commute into the city and they want luxury. They also want their kids to go to a top school and their kids to be around other kids from similar backgrounds. On the weekends and over the summer they are out in the Hamptons or up in the Berkshires. They travel a lot.
The people your referring too that are cornered by rates changes that force them to refi, are people you are in over their heads. These people generally buy in the 500-800 range”
I can’t wait to post a scan of my Realtor membership card.
CNBC running a piece on “reverse redlining” now: instead of refusing to lend within certain areas, lenders piled into them to make subprime loans.
Phila. head of the Urban League says the unwind is just beginning there. Much more to come.
grim (40)-
Luke, I am your father…
New Home Sales due out at 10am..
#42
I’m as giddy as a schoolgirl over the prospect of finally getting my own Supra key.
Predicting the future is never an easy task. Here’s a question that may have been asked and answered but I’m curious anyway. What does everyone think of the upcoming NJ Spring and Summer real estate. Good, bad or the same?
40 grim
You forgot to use the trademark symbol
Re my friend Angelo over at countrywide, I am sure that as anyone of you on the blog who have ever been on a disclosure or audit committee knows that SEC financial reporting requirements require Angelo to act as his company is still independent prior to deal closure. By law angelo can only act as there is no merger with BAC until it is completed. Therefore Angelo if he were to take all that money because he knows BAC is liable for it is against SEC regulations as he needs to act as if there is no deal until it is closed. So a big fat bid deal to Angelo and congrats that he was able to manipulate the press to think he is a great guy and also congrats cause he did not pull a grasso and try to take a few extra millions and risk losing it all.
“I’m partly to blame.”
Where to begin?
19 relocating
We got a generous relo package for this move, but the one thing they would not give us was a guaranteed buyout if our house didn’t sell.
They said they did give such buyouts, until about two years ago. The people we bought from were also relocated out of state, but did not get a buyout either.
#31 Cindy,
You can do pretty detailed searches on the FDIC website to find out what banks/credit unions are exposed to mortgage debts, defaults, etc. However, other local banks maybe be regulated by OTC or OCC.
http://www.fdic.gov
Here is the latest Fed Report from March of 2007, they cite two studies that detail what home equity loans were used for.
Take a look at page 42, table A-1 and the percentage of PCS (Personal consumption spending, which includes spending for education, automobiles, medical and dental expenses, weddings, and vacations). It varies based upon the study but the Consumer Bankers Association “Home Equity Loan Study” which has been ongoing since the 1980s shows average 27% of all HELOCs were used for Personal consumption spending.
Cars, vacations and other spending.
Also take a look at repayment of non-mortgage debt, average is also 27%.Paying down the visa bill I gather.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200720/200720pap.pdf
45 joe
I think this spring will be the last of the self-delusion. No one will be fooling themselves any longer come July. Then comes the slow motion race to the bottom, which will take approximately two years.
Then two years of flat prices.
Beyond summer of 2012, my crystal ball gets a bit murky, but if you must push me:
2008/9/10/11 will have been very painful, which will be entirely blamed on Hillary Clinton, and by late 2012 it will be clear that Neil Bush will be our next president. This will create such a spirit of optimism in the country that all asset classes will rise like a flock of phoenixes from the ashes (even real estate in Phoenix, AZ!).
grim (44)-
The two metal leads on the outside of your Suprakey can be rigged into a makeshift Taser. Especially good for children who won’t stay with their parents when you’re showing a house. :)
Joey (45)-
Armageddon
Waterloo
El Alamein
Little Big Horn
Pick your favorite analogy.
Forgive me coz i am not educated enough in financial matters. A question – why is gold so coveted? I mean there has to be an intrinsic value for any commodity. As far as i am aware, there arent many uses of gold which cannot be duplicated by other metals at lesser cost (Please correct me if i am wrong). So why base the value of any currency based on gold?
why is gold attractive as an investment hedge?
(34) Clot (50) Secondary Market
Thanks for the info..
19/49 relocating
“the one thing they would not give us was a guaranteed buyout if our house didn’t sell.
They said they did give such buyouts, until about two years ago.”
There are any number of execs out there with this written into their employment agreements. I wonder how many corporations will be forced to buy a $1.5M house from a “relocated” executive for $3M.
Anyone belong to the Flying Pig party or at least wearing a pin? 101.5FM made a big stink about Corzine’s toll plan and got enough support that the government is finally going to look at ways of cutting the spending. I wrote a letter to Governor Corzine requesting that the spending be cut so if any of you were frustrated with the proposed toll plan but didn’t think your voice counts, it does. Write, call, do whatever and maybe we can come up with a better plan to help the State!
I know this is off topic, but hey it’s important.
Crown Victoria (55)-
“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the “hidden” confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.”
Alan Greenspan wrote this in 1966.
I’ve been pushing hard to get the farmland assessment sales requirement adjusted for inflation.
Too many individuals are abusing the farmland assessment provisions. I care about the farmers, not the McMansion owning CEO or politico that simply wants to game the system.
Of course, none of the politicians I’ve talked to about this seem to care one bit. I haven’t looked up their property tax records, or those of their contributors, maybe I should.
CME & NMX in merger talks.
Hey Pret…what’s gonna happen when what’s left of the NMX moves to Chicago?
Drat. #59 moderated. And, it’s the words of Alan Greenspan!
#38 willow:And of course all of those buyers out there are going to have to be approved.
I would say that even with all that has transpired over the last few months, that there are people out there who do not have a clue,and will not realize there is a problem, until they go and try to get approved for a loan.
I belive Clot said last week at one point, that he has seen quite a few of these so called buyers roaming around out there, with no longer valid pre-approval letters.
grim (60)-
What you find will not shock you.
#59
Or Sam Donaldson……..who beat the govt for $2M or so with a loophole. He was some farmer
re: (55) Victorian,
Gold has been rising against all currencies since 2001.
As long as the value of the dollar continues to lose ground agains the Euro and other trade weighted curriencies, Gold will continue to be a hedge.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TWEXB
grim, you mean like billy wagner the million dollar mets reliever who see massive tax breaks as an alpaca farmer.
Reclaim your straw man in due course!
“CME & NMX in merger talks.”
Clot,
My brother is dancing in the streets.
Grim,
The farmland assessment provisions are a bit of a sacred cow to NJ politicians. Now I don’t think Corzine is taking advantage of it, but there are so many NJ politicians that do, that I really doubt they would change it. My favorite one is a house down in Marlboro that must be on ten acres that has a small fenced in area containing two llamas. These llamas essentially eat the grass. If I’m not mistaken, if they can sell $500 of llama fur each year, then they live on a farm and pay almost no property taxes because of it. I only live on less than a quarter of an acre, but I bet I could sell $500 worth of tomatoes. I may just try.
Now where can I look up the rules on this?
BTW, here is a great Don Harrold post for this morning.
Good morning,
Do you have children? Most of you have kids, I suspect. If you don’t have kids, play along anyway.
Let’s say you have 18 year old kids that have jobs. Their jobs are, “mowing lawns”, and, “pizza delivery driver”. Their pay is better than minimum-wage.
Yet, they certainly don’t make enough to move out yet.
One day your kids decide they each want a new car. I mean, who wouldn’t want a new car? Teenagers love new cars!
Your kids head down to the local car lot. They find a car they want. They cut a deal. They put some money down. They drive out.
They’re old enough, and they put down the money, so by golly, they are now bona-fide car owners! (At least that’s what the salesperson convinced them…)
Now, let’s skip ahead. Say, two years down the road. They’ve moved out. They’ve still got that car. They’re still making payments on it. They’ve even got better jobs!
But, something funny happened in the time since they moved out. They got some credit cards. They maxed out those credit cards. They bought all kinds of neato stuff. Their apartments are replete with all the trappings of a Wal-Mart bling-fest.
And, then, they lose their job.
That’s when you get the phone call: Mom (or, Dad – just to be politically correct), could you loan me some money?
Could you “loan me” “some” “money”?
Most of you have been in a situation like that. You may even have been on the “loanee” side. Maybe even RECENTLY something like this has happened in your sphere of influence.
But, no matter what side of the story you are on, you know (you KNOW) that if you “loan” the money, it will just enable bad spending, saving, and borrowing habits. You know it.
Does it ever pay? Does it ever turn out good? Does it ever help your kids to “loan them” some money?
No. What it does it remove a little fear from your life. You feel a little better thinking they will be okay one more day. Your kids sigh a little sigh of relief that they got out of a jam. But, the problem is not solved.
The problem is worse. Because…
…Because, now they have gotten money from a source that will not hold them accountable if they don’t pay it back. Thus, they have a debt on their books that will, most likely, never be repaid.
If you don’t see where I’m going with all this, let me be blunt:
The recent “stimulus packages” thrown about by our parents – er, government – are nothing more than handouts to kids – er, American citizens – who filled their homes full of Bling from Wal-Mart. While we (read: not me, though) piled up debt we could not repay, for things we did not need, the Banks continued to “loan” us “money” that got harder and harder to return with interest.
The answer to all this debt madness ought to be: STOP SPENDING. Pay off credit cards. Save money for the future.
The government (and their buddies in big-business), though, have other plans: Print money out of thin air. Send checks to people. Pander to voters with talk of “help for the middle class”. Encourage people to SPEND IT at “Wal Mart” (man, I’m so sick of hearing that). And, DISCOURAGE people from paying off loans.
WORSE, with interest rates lowered (thanks to “helicopter ben” and his dollar-dropping fly-bys) there is even the hope (not my hope, by the way) that there will be a new “refi” boom – where people will switch out of loans they’ve been paying on for the last few years into new loans that take away their equity and jam them into debt for even MORE YEARs.
The upshot of all this monetary madness is that, once again, corporate America wins. We’ve heard for the last year that “balance sheets” have NEVER been “this good”. That companies have TRILLIONS of dollars in their coffers. That profits were just stellar last year.
YET, somehow, it’s in “our” best interest that “we” all head down to – wherever – and hand over our welfare – er, “tax rebate” – checks.
The next time I hear Larry Kudlow or any of the other phoney-baloney “bulls” talk about a “free market economy”, I think I’ll throw one of my gold-bricks through the TV screen. You know, there’s just nothing more obvious than the fact that our economy is many things, but, FREE MARKET, it ain’t.
I’m not sure I’ve seen a worse idea for an economy than the current round of “ideas”.
Is this what it’s come to? Pile up debt, sell off our banks and assets to foreigners, print money that we don’t have, and encourage folks to spend it while going deeper into debt?
Lord, help us all.
Handing kids blank checks is a bad idea. Allowing “the fed” to act as our parents is worse.
I don’t know about you, but, when my check arrives, I’ll exchange it for something with real value: Gold, silver, or, a ticket to Hong Kong.
PPT:
http://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/43342/
Regarding looking up Mortgages/Helocs against properties –
Well, I just did a search on a Morris County Comp Killer featured last week – it seems seller financed only $254,500 of the original $615,000 price so they took the loss not the bank. It is tedious, but I have a little system so if anyone has an address in Morris County please post it for me.
Tried to look up some of those new DeHart properties in Morristown but it seems to new for my system.
57
Our relo and the sellers’ relo were pretty high-level positions (not CEO or anything like that), but high-enough positions that we both probably would have gotten guaranteed buyouts a few years back. In fact, they told us that directly.
What company wants to be stuck holding the bag on a bunch of houses?
anyone to take a gues at NEW HOME SALES figures???
Ill buy a drinks!!!
#74
CNBC projects 650,000 vs 1M a year ago
Question for the finance heads here – not soliciting advice but looking for layman’s descriptions of how things work “by the book.”
Assuming that the economy will move into decline and inflation hits the dollar hard, how do TIPS and local Tax free (are they always?) Muni bonds normally react? What is the upside / downside to investing in these vehicles?
Again, just looking for layman, “by the book” descriptions.
Thanks
ill go with 628 ,,,,,!! just a gues
Would anyone care to venture why there were so many people flocking to open houses yesterday? I noticed it, too.
NYMEX got sold CME, some people still getting rich. My friend got a job there to get in on IPO and now a year later he gets second pop!!! Sweet.
Watch NYX, NASDAQ and DBAG blow numbers out of the box in 1Q 2008, they are all hitting breaking all time records every week this year.
Muni bonds under 5 years are a screaming buy, longer term bonds will have lots of inflation risk. In an inflationairy enviroment z-coupon gets spanked liked a red headed stepchild.
Think about it, if you buy a 30 year bond at 5%, and rates shoot to ten percent, at least you get to take your interest payment every six months and reinvest at the now higher rate.
With a z-coupon you locked in the face of the bond and interest payment for 30 years at 5%. Bonds naturally have somewhat of a hedge as unlike cds you get paid out the interest and can re-invest the interest.
if you do a bond search on trace you will see triple A bonds like toyota paying 6.9% on the z-coupon, very high for a 30 year triple A, what that is telling you is that bond traders are expecting inflation on the long end.
TIPS are for bed-wetters and nancy boys.
New Home Sales
down 4.7 % 604,000
Beginning of the spring buying season – people are looking for bargains.
From Bloomberg:
Sales of New Houses in U.S. Fell More Than Forecast in December
Purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell to a 12-year low in December, capping the biggest annual decline on record.
Sales decreased 4.7 percent to an annual pace of 604,000, the fewest since February 1995, from a 634,000 rate the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median price last month dropped 10 percent from December 2006, the biggest 12- month decline in 37 years.
The report may reinforce concern that falling home values and stricter lending rules will lead to more foreclosures and hurt consumer spending. Federal Reserve policy makers, meeting later this week, will probably cut interest rates again to try to ward off recession, economists said.
“With home prices declining and credit conditions restrained, any rebound in home sales will take time to develop,” Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said before the report. “Declines in residential building will take most of this year to subside.”
Economists forecast new home sales would be unchanged from an originally reported 647,000 rate the prior month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 62 economists. Forecasts ranged from 595,000 to 680,000.
The median price of a new home fell to $219,200 in December from $244,700 a year earlier, today’s report showed. For all of 2007, the median price rose 0.2 percent to $246,900.
For all of 2007, sales dropped 26 percent, the most since records began in 1963.
#78 gary: NAR says its a great tiem to buy;but you have to qualify!!!
From MarketWatch:
U.S. 2007 new-home sales fall record 26.4%
U.S. Dec. new-home sales fall 4.7% to 604,000 pace
U.S. Dec. new-home sales below 645,000 pace expected
U.S. 2007 new-home sales fall to 774,000, 11-year low
U.S. Dec. new-home inventory 9.6-months, 26-year high
U.S. 2007 median new-home sales price up 0.2%
U.S. Dec. median new-home sales price down record 10.9%
55 Victorian
Gold is pretty. Gold is maleable. There is a relatively small supply of Gold (unlike diamonds where the price is held high artificially).
Gold is the best conductor money can buy (copper is 2nd). A lot of electronic parts contain small amounts of gold, which is why people will recycle old computers. It’s cheaper to take apart old pc boards to recycle the small amount of gold then it is to mine it.
I’ve only worked with copper, but when we recieved it we had to measure it’s electrical properties to determine it’s purity (make sure we were not getting ripped off). The purer the metal the better the electrical properties. Incidently the ‘international standard’ used to measure copper’s purity is less pure then most copper bought for electronic purposes. Therefore when you measure the conductivity you get something like 102% as compared to the ‘international standard.’
From MarketWatch:
Builders slash prices 10%, but sales fall anyway in Dec.
U.S. builders slashed prices by more than 10% in December in a failed bid to boost sales, which dropped about 5% to the lowest level in nearly 13 years, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Sales of new homes fell 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 in December, far below the 645,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch and the lowest sales pace since February 1995. The median sales price tumbled a record 10.9% to $219,200 compared with November and were down 10.4% compared with a year earlier. For all of 2007, home sales fell a record 26.4% to 774,000 compared with 1.05 million sold in 2006.
#79 John: I am buying Puerto Rico Pre-res, especially with sinking funds, nice coupon pymt flow, triple tax exempt, and many on the street will not buy them, becasue they will not take the time to read the prospectus, to research the sinking funds.
I also like the tax exempt auction prefered’s, nice pick up over the tax exempt VRDN’s as the funds cannot buy short term paper without the put mechanism.
3b,
Why would all these people come out of the wood work if they didn’t qualify?
Because many of them will not realize they do not qualify until they go to get a mortgage.
“Would anyone care to venture why there were so many people flocking to open houses yesterday? I noticed it, too.”
Gary,
Because Eli was not on TV.
Maybe I just see housing picture way to simple, however all this data indicates to me that prices’s still have to drop ( significant amount) for sales to move.
Slightly off topic, but it looks like Ratner may have trouble funding the Atlantic Yards,
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01282008/news/regionalnews/court_trouble_793583.htm
(yeah, I know it’s the Post)
why are open houses typically on a sunday?
I woul;d say a lot of people are bargain hunters – I heard many people saying that right now prices are going down, might be good time to buy. When you hear this – well you go out and see whats available and at what price.
I did see 5-10% decline in asking prices this year compared to last year spring.
Is it enough to reignite the market?? I do not believe so – but if unemployment stays low, at least market will not get worse.
Time will tell – remember there is always a spring bounce – you can not expect sales in the spring months below december sales without global negative event
njpatient Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 9:04 am
45 joe
I think this spring will be the last of the self-delusion. No one will be fooling themselves any longer come July. Then comes the slow motion race to the bottom, which will take approximately two years.
Then two years of flat prices.
________________________________________________
patient, do you think the process will really take that long to unwind? We would really like to start looking seriously at the end of this year/1st quarter of ’09. Too soon?
94 Al:
If Spring bounce doesn’t occur, I’ll be rich.
Quite honestly, I don’t expect much of a Spring bounce at all.
IMO, the lack of financing available and the stubbornness of sellers to not lower their asking prices is going to keep most buyers on the sidelines. The fact that mortgage rates are .5% lower than they were last Spring just ain’t enough of an impetus as not enough people have good credit nor 20% to put down. Also, the psychology of housing as a poor investment has not changed contributing to the lack of sales. There is also weigh to much inventory.
IMO, it will take a Spring without a bounce to convince people to lower their prices. We really haven’t experienced this yet, but the Spring of 2008 will be a blood bath as so many people have been waiting for this opportunity to try to sell that the inventory will increase significantly. Then the buyers will really be hard-pressed to buy as they will become even more keenly aware that such drasticly large RE inventories will cause the prices to drop.
We won’t see the Spring bounce until the Spring of 2009.
Of course, I could be wrong, but usually, I am not.
Hey, I went to 4 open house on Sunday. Maybe there were other bears on the prowl?
BC Bob,
I went on a house hunting spree with my wife in October and there were tons of foot traffic. Unfortunately, all of the homes we looked at are all still on the market today.
Just as the early Xmas retail numbers were projected to be great as stores could not believe the amount of foot traffic. Ultimately, this Xmas season may turn out to be the worst in the past decade if not more.
The moral of the story is, do not judge a book by the cover.
Stu [98],
It amazing that many get excited over foot traffic. I wonder if they had any cabbage in their pocket?
My wife and I are working on turning open houses into a competitive sport. Teams of 2 per car, must provide evidence of each stop (photograph of the sign-in). Most stops at the end of the day wins the pool.
Each week we try to outdo ourselves. We even use GPS/Mapping software to optimize routes and maximize stops. Standard road rally rules apply.
We’ve already started practicing, I have no doubt we’ll break 20 stops this spring.
#78,
Because the RE market is heating up, I know there are a lot of bears on this blog, but the RE market will be hot this Spring, rates and prices have dropped a lot so people are going to shop. My neighbor had 20 showings just this weekend.
Weekend “races” will be hosted virtually, there is no starting or finish line. Suggest that you use your local neighborhoods to maximize stops. You start from your driveway, finish when you post up your results.
At the end of day, post up your stop-list and evidence.
$10 registration fee per team.
Winner gets all.
101 Frank,
Care to wager on your prediction?
Did you see those sub-prime and alt-a spreadsheets posted by the NY FED yesterday?
Where is the money to buy these homes going to come from now that the home ATM is out of order?
Frank,
The 20 showings means squat until there is a sale. It’s like people posting discounts based on original asking prices versus selling prices. Please honestly post the address so we can see if it results in a sale. Betcha it doesn’t. I’ve seen this countless times for the past nine months. Tons of traffic, but no sales.
Predictions on the Spring Market?
What?
Look outside, we’re already in it. Looks like the Spring season is playing out like it did last year. Spring came early, and faded fast.
#94 Al:Time will tell – remember there is always a spring bounce – you can not expect sales in the spring months below december sales without global negative event.
Seems to me we have that global event.
#101 frank; Sounds like wishful thinking on your part.
I have a family memebr who does real estate closings, deals falling apart every day;the people connot get the financing, simple as that.
Danm404 Says:
January 27th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Anyone else watching the democratic primary debates? After hearing about the universal health care plans and mortgage crisis plans I think I may have to vote republican for the 1st time in my life :-(
Danny Boy: It is a rite of passage. They always say that people become more conservative as they get older, as if it is some affliction. How about life experience and wisdom. I am apolitical, but I have strong bull—- radar……
Ok My tale: I did look to buy last year’s spring – in feb/march…
Couple of houses (cape cods) I was interested in – they needed a lot of work…Were listed at 275K. I told my realtor thatthese are the two we are interested in. He calles listing agent – told us there is a offer in place on both, but below listing. If we want to we might bid as well. I told him – I am not placing an offer on the hosue which have an offer on it already – let the other people have it.
In the end – both houses were sold – one at 250,one at 255. (20-25K under listed price). U
Unfortunatelly I have no idea how much repairs were done before closing or who paid for them or weither seller paid buyers closing costs or not. So I assume 255 was the price without any repair – about 20K more than I would pay.
Rewind forward to this year – right now in the same neighbourhood, withing a block of last year’s two houses there are same model/builder/year cape cods are asking 240K.
Assuming that I might get it for 10K off – here is the price I was willing to pay last year – I also saved about 8K buy having lower rents – an additional bonus.
I think I am going to see thouse two and tro somw lowball – like 210K. We will see. If there will be an offer on thouse two already – I will probably submit an offer of 220K.
Ohh yea, I am not looking in Bergen county :) Or Westfield as obviousy I am wayyyyy to poor for those two!!!
102 Weekend Races
Grim – will you handicap for couples with small children? We have 2 under 3, car seat buckels can really slow you down.
3b Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 10:54 am
#94 Al:Time will tell – remember there is always a spring bounce – you can not expect sales in the spring months below december sales without global negative event.
Seems to me we have that global event
I am afraid yo do not understand:
Global event is not when 90% of population lost their jobs…
Global Event is when I lost MY job
Grim – will we have correction for the number of units for sale/area factor??
One can find a development with 20 townhomes for sale – it will be unfair.
Also one can go look at all price ranges without any hope to buy – cheating!!!
108
I’m still not conservative by any stretch of the imagination. I did however come to the sad realization that if our taxes were lower (i.e. if left to our own devices) we could easily pay out of pocket for all the services myself and my family don’t qualify for and struggle to pay for out of pocket – God love the middle class.
I love the Japanese system of pay for the young (under 18) and pay for the old (over 65) and everyone in between can take a hike. Three hours waiting to see a doctor in the UK (Danny Boy, my son had an ear infection we needed treated before we could fly home) solidified my conviction that Universal Health does not work.
#100 Gee, Grim, you sure know how to show a girl a good time.
How about as soon as income taxes become an issue (as people get older), people give up on social causes and instead opt for a tax cut.
Experience and wisdom…nahhh. Selfishness and greed…probably.
#22
That’s a pretty awesome resource! Is there a similar site for Somerset County? I tried searching but couldn’t find it myself.
Could someone help me out with a history on GSMLS # 2431712?
Thanks in advance!!
Sybarite, ThatBigWindow posted this one a few days ago, it seems to be for all of NJ:
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/prc6.cgi?menu=index&ms_user=monm&passwd=data&district=1301&mode=11
#118
Yeah, I got that one. That doesn’t quite have the same information as the morris co. clerk’s website, i.e. mortgage and HELOC information.
“Drat. #59 moderated. And, it’s the words of Alan Greenspan!”
Would that his words had always been moderated, clot.
“gary Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Why would all these people come out of the wood work if they didn’t qualify?”
Idle curiosity. I’ve heard agents say they’re tempted not to put up signs for open houses because the foot traffic of people from the neighborhood who have no intention of bidding and are just being nosy is annoying and a waste of time.
grim –
Do you work with an agent? My wife and I are doing all the research on homes to buy, and even setting the schedule on saturday.
I’ve heard people are negotiating getting a kick back from their commission if a deal goes through..
Forget foot traffic. Just monitor how many make it to closing.
I haven’t been out for a couple of weeks looking, but I haven’t seen ANYTHING of interest come on the market yet (Hunterdon County). What are these people looking at? Old listings that have been pulled off and reposted?
FWIW, the wife and I went to our first open houses this Sunday. It was our first times, so I’m not expert, but it seemed like there were a lot of other people out as well.
#120 njpatient: lots of curious/nosy neighbors around, looking, espefcially if its an Oh My God, did you hear the so and so’s are moving.
Senate may add to stimulus package
Just came through —
WASHINGTON – Senate Democrats will move to add to a $150 billion economic stimulus package rebates for senior citizens living off Social Security and an extension of unemployment benefits, setting up a clash with the White House and House leaders who are pushing a narrower package.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080128/ap_on_go_co/economy_stimulus_12
3B,
I’ve always attended my neighbors open houses, simply to gauge what my home might be worth if I put it on the market. I doubt I am the only one who does this.
Forget foot traffic. Just monitor how many make it to closing.
Good point. Grim and C
lot could probably vouch for this.
Most buyers have to sell to move up and that’s not happening. also a number of buyers still believe that it’s their human right to qualify for a mortgage.
I would love to see some data on from acceptance to contract to actual closing starting from last August in Bergen. grim?
95 bubble
“patient, do you think the process will really take that long to unwind? We would really like to start looking seriously at the end of this year/1st quarter of ‘09. Too soon?”
Yes, I really think the process will take that long (and I believe I’m being fairly conservative in my estimation); realize that much of the second half of that post was tongue-in-cheek, of course.
Whether next winter is a good time to buy depends on your particular circumstances and what you need and where you need it, what your finances are and whether you drive a good bargain, I would think. It will certainly be a far better time to buy than this winter, which was far better than last winter. Of course, when next winter actually arrives, we’ll all have a much better idea what the state of play is. Maybe it’ll be the perfect time.
96 stu
Second all that, and I’d add that anyone who doesn’t notice what’s happening in the broader economy beyond RE is in deep denial. Joe Public has noticed. Joe Public is nervous. Joe Public has already cut down on luxury shopping. What was home-buying during 2004-2006/7 if not luxury shopping.
Folks see a storm coming, and they’re tightening their belts around their sou’westers.
BC Bob,
I hope they’ll be talking about Eli in the best of terms come Sunday night.
Re: open houses
We had a lot of open houses in our new neighborhood too, seemed like a decent amount of traffic too. But who knows.
We actually got our three offers on our sell from an open house we did. We had just dropped the price and had a lot of interest that week, but the open house was where it happened.
I think the post-Xmas activity is picking up, the weather was decent (at least not snowing) and maybe all the news last week about the jumbo limit being lifted played in.
101 Frank
From now on, I will call you Duck.
No – make that Frankenduck.
#130 njpatient: For what it is worth, I think we will start to see some very good bargains as we get into the Summer, and continuing into 09.
The question is how long people want to wait, to catch what they perceive to be the bottom.
The Spring/Summer market will be a bust, and I believe the sellers will finally get the message, that the party really is over.
I will be out bidding (low balling) myself this Spring /Summer, it will be very interesting.
At the end of the day, the qualified buyers are in the drivers seat now.
I will be out bidding myself
Grim-
Would it be possible for you get an history for this – MLS ID# 811543?
Thanks a million!
“U.S. builders slashed prices by more than 10% in December in a failed bid to boost sales, which dropped about 5% to the lowest level in nearly 13 years, the Commerce Department reported Monday.”
“The grim figures show no relief in sight for a battered building sector and are certain to be a major item on the Federal Reserve’s agenda for its two-day policy-setting meeting that begins Tuesday.”
“The housing recession is still bottoming out,” said Christian Menegatti, managing editor and analyst for the Roubini Global Economics Monitor.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sales-new-us-homes-decline/story.aspx?guid=%7BFE18509B%2D7B4B%2D48E2%2D8F56%2D7712F3CEF2A1%7D&siteid=bnb
#133 Ann:week about the jumbo limit being lifted played in.
How many are even aware of that.
“I am not placing an offer on the hosue which have an offer on it already – let the other people have it.”
we had this as a standing rule with our agent. I won’t get in a bidding war in a down market.
st an interesting craigslist ad I caught. They want you to pay to own their lousy shack and make the outrageous payments. I guess the reset hit and they are up the creek.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/552536683.html
This is my situation:
My partner & I own a one family 3 bedroom 1 bath ranch style home in North Plainfield. It has a 1 car detached garage, a driveway that fits 5 more cars, back screened porch , a beautiful large kitchen, unfinished basement & huge attic.
We are going our own way and would be willing to sign over this home to whoever gives me $20,000 cash money to move out. I do not want to go through a Real Estate Agent & have to wait months & months for a sale with countless after hour house viewings which really only invade your privacy. I purchased it 2 years ago and still owe 300,000. The deed is under my name & my partners name. ( We are not married) The monthly mortgage payment is 2800. We can not afford this house. Please if you have any advice on what I can do to avoid foreclosure, contact me ASAP.
“The housing recession is still bottoming out,”
What the hell does that mean?
Technically, the first sign of a decrease could be referred to as still bottoming out.
i predicted that the house price in some desirable towns would appreciate 10% this year. from the sign i saw last weekend, it could happen – unfortunately to many die-hard re bears on this board. looking at today’s new home sales and homebuilders reaction, i truly feel the worse is behind us.
“Greenspan had the wind of consumers’ willingness and ability to go deeper in debt at his back. Bernanke has the wind of boomers fearing retirement in the midst of falling home prices and impaired bank balance sheets blowing stiffly in his face. There is no cure for what ails us other than time and price. And with the aforementioned attitude changes, the biggest, most reckless global credit expansion experiment the world has ever seen is coming to an end. Central banks are powerless to do anything about it.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Bernanke-Fed-mortgage-debt/index/a/15683
bi,
You are on crack! So you going to the Morristown shindig?
The title says it all:
Ben Stein Must Be Stopped
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/media/10400701.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Commercial Real Estate Crash Underway
http://tinyurl.com/2v74at
Hey bi, big deal, my friend lives in RVC LI, it seems the houses on the supersweet blocks in the tony side of town that were 1.2 to 1.8 are all moving quickly repriced at 1 to 1.6 million. The seedy side of town and the middle class side of town where pos peak priced houses that sold for 650k to 850K with middle class people leveraged to max to get into name brand town are sitting and sitting even with price cuts, they ain’t selling. That town in 2008 will have a increase in average SALE prices but in reality good houses will sell and POS houses that sold for a good buck in 2006 won’t sell at any price. So you gotta compare apples to apples. Overall prices can rise but remember if only good homes sell in a week market and good homes are always priced higher it will look like home prices are rising when they are not.
saw someone inquiring about ‘the apple stock guy’ on the weekend thread. dont know if it’s me, but im certainly one of them.
i think in sept or oct i said it would hit 200 by year’s end – it did. i was thrilled. too bad that since that day (maybe one month ago) it has lost $70.
does this mean apple was overvalued? i suppose. but when i bought at 137 it was never a get-rich-quick thing; it’s a buy and hold for me. should i have shorted and tried to play some of the games that people play on here? perhaps.
oh well
144#, stu. thank you for asking. probably not. i am a little exhausted in last 3 months: made a trade-up and refinance and will close everything in next 2 weeks.
113
UNDERFUNDED universal health care doesn’t work, Dan.
UK spends on health care roughly 40% per citizen what the US spends.
Underfunded defense would be a similarly lousy bargain. But the US would never countenance that.
130 patient,
Gotcha. We wouldn’t bother to try and time the market, but that doesn’t mean we want to be knife-catchers either–we’re trying to stick with the fundamentals in terms of what we’re willing to pay. We’re pretty much content renting where we are now (especially now that Christofuh and Adriana and their Rottweiller-breeding business are finally moving from next door), but we may need a place that can accomodate my mom as well, in which case we will need to move. In the meantime, it’s a good feeling to be able to wait out the coming bloodbath . . .
My wife and I saw some open houses this Sunday.
My favorite was one that the realtor proudly told us was “just reduced 10K.” What a bargain!
That will probably do it, drop a house that’s been sitting by 10K and the offers will come.
Question: Is the 10K drop the realtor’s doing or the homeowner? Who is the brilliant one?
probably already mentioned, but hopefully everyone here saw the excellent piece on 60 Minutes last night. Easily the best piece of TV journalism I’ve seen so far on the housing bubble
Stu (70)-
Don’t know if someone else posted…but, you need to have at least 6 acres (1 acre for homestead, 5 for farming) to apply for farm assessment.
“Anticipation of another Fed rate cut is the main magnet in the market today,” said Alfred E. Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc.
But he said he was skeptical the gains would stick — anything the Fed decides after its two-day meeting lets out Wednesday could be met with disappointment. If the rate cut is small or nonexistent, the market will likely be unsatisfied; if the cut is wide, the market may worry the economy is worse than it thought.
Ben needs to go to Zero, so that the Market knows he’s behind them. Full speed ahead, Damn the Foreign Redemptions!
#142 bi: i truly feel the worse is behind us.
You have truly been saying that for quite some time now;but truly the worst is ahead of us
148
I lucked out. Sold half of holdings just before the drop in rebalancing.
jlx (93)-
So big RE companies can force their agents to sit them, thereby further brainwashing them and controlling their lives.
152 jam
I would say the brilliant 10K drop was the result of the seller saying to realtor, “When are you going to sell this house?”
Realtor replies, “Market is tough, you might want to consider to drop the price”
Seller suggests 10K and Realtor says OK instead of pushing for a real price drop Everyone feels better, like they are taking action to sell the house and can sit tight for another two months.
this equity and bond market is crazing now – people are factoring another 50 bps cut in wednesday. i am on more caustious side.
Al (94)-
“…remember there is always a spring bounce…”
Er, not in ’06 or ’07. Not this year, either.
138 3b re jumbo limit
Eh, if you read the news at all you might have caught it. If you’re working with a realtor, they may have called you with the great news that now you can get your jumbo at a better rate, but it ends at the end of the year, so get to it!
[159] After the tour the realtor asked me if the house was in my price range to which I replied the price range is something I could manage but not for this house and I said thank you and left.
This house will continue to sit unless someone without a clue and a whole lot of money to waste comes along. In either case, I could not care less.
old-fashioned due diligence
Man, there are a lot of unspoken derogatory insinuations in that phrase.
Why is due diligence old fashioned? Who said that? Where was I when that happened? That’s giving them an out. An excuse. And I resent it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=axo1oswvqx4s&refer=home
#162 Ann: True, but then again? Nothing surprises me any more.
Re: Gold at $927 an ounce.
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/quotes.aspx?symb=GC08G&sid=2275790
Housing Boom in Cuba – “This is the moment to buy”! :)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/world/americas/28cuba.html
Dan (110)-
“…will you handicap for couples with small children? We have 2 under 3, car seat buckels can really slow you down.”
Duct tape them to the seat.
164#, there is nothing wrong with VaR or any other quantitative measurements. The problem in SocGen is they even did not bother to look at total euro exposure (they did look at net though).
bi (160)-
“…i am on more caustious side…”
One can never be too caustious.
If one isn’t caustious, he could get into a lot of trerble.
bi (160)-
“crazing”
Is that like “wilding”?
bi (169)-
“The problem in SocGen is they even did not bother to look at total euro exposure…”
The problem at SocGen is that they have monkeys at the controls.
I want to thank everyone who answered my question, i appreciate it. My wife and i want to start looking sometime in July/August for a house in the $300,000 range.
[168] Nice way to end up charged with something.
for those of you that think NJ is the only place with money troubles…. last week I was in San Diego on business, and got a parking ticket on the street outside my hotel (Marriott Old Town). Now I had made sure I was fully in front of the “BEGIN NO PARKING” sign, but as I was marching to the front desk to ask WTF I see in small print on the ticket “Failure to Cramp wheels”.
Well, you see, like San Fransico SD has a law that on a non-level street (greater than 3% grade, I looked it up), you must crank your front wheels to/away from the curb, depending on which way you’re facing. Fair enough on Lamboard street, but the street I was on couldn’t have been more than a 3.001% grade.
$47 ticket, thank you very much.
Remember that next time you park in CA….
isn’t he a swell guy. for he’s a jolly good fellow
http://www.thestreet.com/s/mozilo-gives-up-375m-severance/newsanalysis/financial-services/10400687.html?puc=googlefi
Now Obama and Kennedys are tied up to make changes in washington.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8UF1E080&show_article=1
Grim,
There’s nothing like the feeling power of you get from a supra key, I keep it in my bedroom at night and love to catch it updating itself around midnight..whoooo hoooo (-:
I don’t know if I have a card but I got a great little pin.
175.Kurt
If you park in front of the Presbyterian Church in Summit NJ behind Cove Carpet, and dutifully feed the parking meter, you will get a $25 ticket, as a street sign further up overrides the meter, because of Church Day Care during certain hours. Summit Government doesn’t believe in Separation of Church & State.
177. Kennedy, isn’t he the one who killed that girl Betty JO from Berkeley Heights?
bi (177)-
“Now Obama and Kennedys are tied up to make changes in washington.”
Talk about candidates for a good, old-fashioned duct taping.
kl (178)-
“There’s nothing like the feeling power of you get from a supra key, I keep it in my bedroom at night and love to catch it updating itself…”
You filthy little minx…
“Summit Government doesn’t believe in Separation of Church & State.”
taking a cue from the feds
Can someone please provide information for MLS ID# 2801931?
Kelly (re: Dehart condos)
Using the databases at the two links below, I found that deeds for the sale of only 2 of 9 of the Lennar Dehart Place condos have been recorded. Both were recorded in 11/07 and state consideration of $1.2mm or more. One is encumbered by an single adjustable rate mortgage in the amount of $800,000. The other is owned free and clear. The other 7 condos are still apparently owned by Lennar. Perhaps someone with MLS can tell us if any of the others are under contract? They are 34, 36, 40, 46, 48, 50 and 52 De Hart St., Morristown.
http://tinyurl.com/2gzbnd (all NJ property tax cards and recent deed records)
http://tinyurl.com/29jjyy (all Morris County Clerk records)
Wonder if Larry got a bonus this year?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080128/bs_nm/merrilllynch_cdo_dc_1
#184
I couldn’t find any info for that number in the GS MLS system.
from Gosip out of MERRILL:
Fakahani is on a way OUT ..more to come …..much more
Can anyone tell me the name of the website that posts recent sales in Bergen County? My computer crashed and I lost the website. Thanks
Bi says:
“i am on more caustious side.”
Black box says: here comes another 3/4 point Fed rate reduction.
For once, I am nervous about my SRS. (well not really)
A business that is actually coming TO our great state…
India’s Shasun Chemicals & Drugs to set up process development facility in US
MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) – India’s Shasun Chemicals & Drugs Ltd said will set up a process development facility in Pis cat away, New Jersey, and that it will be operational from April.
Financial details were not disclosed.
The facility will provide active pharmaceutical ingredients development services in the pre-clinical and clinical trail stages in North America and extend back-end support to its contract research and manufacturing services partners, Shasun said in a regulatory filing.
The plant will reach full capacity from Oct next year, the company said.
#189 NJ Buyer
http://buyinginbergen.com/
Can anyone tell me what the details (bedrooms, baths, basement, garage, etc.) are on 253 River Road in Pis cat away (08854)? It recently sold for 400K and is listed as a condo in aboutourtown.com. Seems kind of high for a condo on River Road, especially now.
#193
I couldn’t find it in the MLS.
Stu Says:
Hey don’t talk about Obama’s wife that way!
January 28th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Bi says:
“i am on more caustious side.”
Black box says: here comes another 3/4 point Fed rate reduction.
For once, I am nervous about my SRS. (well not really)
Syb #194,
Thanks for trying.
Anyway, how about GSMLS #2460687 ? It’s no longer listed on GSMLS.COM, did it get withdrawn/expired or actually UC/close?
#196
It says under contract. Scheduled to close 02/29/08; last list price was $319,900.
John,
The real shame of your comments is that so frequently you have intelligent insight to offer the group here, but then later, you make racist jokes that would hardly past muster in the kindergarten playground.
Syb #197,
Sweet! I’ll ask you in March what the actual sale price was, if you don’t mind :)
Not a problem.
163 jam
I love when some realtors try to make it seem like if you don’t like a house, it must be “out of your price range.” Ha!
I was going to say it but Stu said it at 198
#198
the john phenomenon has been detected in the past. i think grim should make them use last name initials so we can identify which john is which.
#192
that’s a good website… i’m a little skeptical abt the whole truth in those sales… is that the full list of sales or is that just a subset of the highest? hmmmm… can anyone verify this?
it is run by a realtor, so who knows….
163 – 201
We get that all the time.
‘Well I can certainly show you something more in your price range?’
‘The problem is not our price range, the problem is this house is not worth anywhere near the asking price.’
We’ve also had realtors show us homes no where near what we want just because we’re the only qualified buyers they’ve seen in ages. I frequently sum up our modest criteria as “I don’t want to clean more then 2 bathrooms” & “I don’t want a house so big that my kids feel comfortable enough to live here forever.” And yet we had a realtor show us a house with 3 living rooms, 6 bedrooms and 5 1/2 baths! Of course it was on 1/4 acre and had brick front with vinyl siding on the other 3 sides – now that’s class!
#204 jlx
Your bet is as good as mine. He says it’s all the sales from NJMLS, so I’m assuming that any other sales (FSBO, or sales that use another MLS) aren’t listed.
Then, of course, there are the other things that have an impact on purchase price but not selling price (ie, seller paying closing costs, the new car in the driveway, etc…)
Also, for anybody whose interested, about a week ago the State of NJ updated the part of their site where they show tax rates for every town:
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/index.html?lpt/taxrate.htm~mainFrame
Useful information if you’re shopping around for areas.
207
Looking at Alpine, it’s too bad that knock downs start at 1.2M. If they had houses in my price range would be a real tax bargain.
Clotpoll Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Duct tape them to the seat.
clot: my father-in-law calls duct tape “West Virginia Chrome”.
Obama, an Illinois senator, hailed Kennedy as a “lion of the Senate” and one of the most influential lawmakers in history. “I know what your support means,” Obama said. “I know the cherished place the Kennedy family holds in the hearts of the American people.”
I wonder if Mary Jo Kepechne’s parents agree with Obama? I don’t.
http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/do-resets-no-longer-matter/
Do Resets No Longer Matter?
January 28, 2008, 11:16 am
Has the Fed solved the mortgage reset problem?
Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, says it has.
At Davos last week, he said that most resets on subprime mortgages are for 5 or 6 percentage points over Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) and that Libor is now low enough that the resets will therefore not be very large.
I don’t have the actual statistics, but if he is right, that would be some very good news.
1 comment so far…
January 28th, 2008 1:14 pm
Re: Nice Rates
Does not sound very good to me. Current LIBOR rates range from 4.335 for 3 months, 4.345 for six months, and 4.366 for one year. And that is the interbank rate; the rest of us pay more.
I don’t know which maturity the sub-primes are based on, but I would guess the 1-year LIBOR applies. (Somebody correct me, if they know)Frankly, 9.4% or 10.4% doesn’t sound like a great deal to me when new 30-year mortgages are going for about 5.5%.
— Posted by Thomas Flattery
Here is a nice visual on the Monoline meltdown put out by our friends across the Pond at the Financial Times, narrated in a somewhat cockney accent.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/553e1a16-cb51-11dc-97ff-000077b07658.html
Default rates are expected to be about 4% this year to the tune of 250 Billion.
Where are they going to come up with that cash? Anyone? Taxpayer?
Grim — 212 is in moderation, I used a word to reference east enders in London, and it was trapped by your spam filter.
204 jlx re buyinginbergen.com
I believe it’s a list of all the sales that closed in Bergen for a given week, but you could email the realtor who puts them up and ask.
I don’t believe it’s cherrypicked as far as I’ve seen. I’ve been using it for a while and seen some “lowballs” on there (I kept track of the OLPs myself).
#210 confused. That lard butt (Ted Kennedy), should be in prison.
That being said, I would imagine the Clinton’s must be furious.
I think Obama meant “loin of the Senate”.
215. 3b
Full article said they were disappointed, as Billy had been soliciting Teddy on Hilly’s behalf, right up till the end. Well, maybe it will be an Obama/Clinton ticket and they both get a piece of the pie. They both cherish Teddy, so they are very compatible. Obama can sell off the Eastern & Western States and Hilly the Northern & Southern States to satisfy foreign creditors. Massachusetts will be sold last in deference to Teddy.
Bush, Clinton, Obama, deflationary credit crunch, hyperinflation, unlimited counterparty risk, bank bailout disguised as handout to the masses, gubmint printing money nonstop, PPT working overtime, mortgage crisis to be worse in UK than here, our kids on the hook for a bill that can’t/won’t be paid, complete housing collapse.
Only fun to be had these days is figuring out who the Antichrist is.
#217 Confused: Full article said they were disappointed.
Disappointed another word for pi–ed.
At the end of the day, though you are probably right, a Clinton Obama ticket is what we will see.
218. Clotpoll
Only fun to be had these days is figuring out who the Antichrist is.
Are the Vegas odds posted yet? Last I saw Bin Ladin was a front runner, but I think he’s a red herring.
PARIS (AP) — Investigating judges filed preliminary charges Monday against a trader accused of causing billions in losses for France’s second-largest bank and released him from custody, his lawyer said Monday.
Jerome Kerviel was preliminarily charged with “breach of trust” and unauthorized computer activity, said attorney Christian Charriere-Bournazel. The lawyer did not disclose his whereabouts. He said Kerviel would be subject to “very minor” monitoring by authorities, though he did not elaborate.
The allegedly illicit trades, if confirmed, would amount to the largest securities fraud ever committed by an individual. Societe Generale said it lost 4.82 billion euros ($7.09 billion), but that the low-level trader was making deals worth tens of billions.
Kerviel was released into the custody of Ben Bernanke. Bernanke was told to keep Kerviel away from computers.
Market reversed Friday’s losses. Must be expecting Ben to cut another 3/4%. Wonder how many times he can do that? Maybe he has a virtual cutter?
Well if Ben has Kerviel off-setting everything, he can go on forever.
215 Don’t be ridiculous, Ted Kennedy shouldn’t be in prison. He would have gotten out years ago on a manslaughter rap.
224. I think they made Teddy an “Honorary Illegal” anyway, so Laws don’t apply to him.
American Express Profit Falls 9.9 Percent on Loan Loss Charge
By Hugh Son
Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — American Express Co., the third- largest U.S. credit-card network, said fourth-quarter profit fell 9.9 percent as it set aside more for customer defaults amid a slowing economy.
#224 OK he should have been in prison, and he certainly should not still be a U.S. Senator, and he certainly should not be lectuting people.
AS far as the AntiChrist belive it or not there are 46,400 Google matches for “Barack Obama and AntiChrist.”
That is compared to the 36,900 AntiChrist matches for “Dick Cheney and AntiChrist”, and Cheney’s been doing his evil work since Nixon Administration.
Could be onto something……..
Ok, Teddy landed in the water. Even Tiger, occasionally, slices his ball into the drink.
Why do we have to hear over and over about Ted Kennedy and not about Laura Bush killing her classmate as well? Well at least she did the time… oh thats got off too.
#230 –
i think one difference is that ted kennedy swam away, and then did not even report it until the next day – when most people (except apologists) believe that he could have saved her –
he panicked because he was drunk, married, and with another woman and did not want to ruin his political career. – not exactly the same as a car accident.
Is Ted K’s declaration a help or a hinderence? One of the blows landed at Kerry was that he was decalred the most Liberal MA senator. I don’t think Obama’s candidacy is strong enough to survive the Liberal paintbrush.
Teddy is like the dotty great aunt at a wedding, she has to be invited, you just hope she doesn’t embarass you too much.
It is a bit of a slap in the face for the Clintons, but in a strange way I think it helps them.
Just my 2c
It is comical (and true) to hear Obama complain that he doesn’t know which Clinton he is running against. Obviously, “William Jefferson Clinton” has found his own way around “Term Limits”, Long Live the Monarchy! FDR may lose his record.
Where is the RE talk – it sounds like this could be Free Republic with all this Dem bashing – Obama is an antichrist, Kennedy is a killer, the Clinton Monarchy.
I know the election is coming but this is getting a little much.
Confused (222)-
“Maybe he has a virtual cutter?”
More like a box cutter.
234. Kelly, not DEM Bashing, Obama is a Dem and he said, “I don’t know which Clinton I am running against”. Same would be true if George ran Laura. It’s not party specific. It’s an attempt at Heriditary rule.
My own prediction is an Obama(D)/Clinton(D) ticket. Bloomberg(I) enters as an Independent, to act as a Perot like spoiler. This move is countered by McCain(R) breaking ranks and adding Lieberman(I) as VP. Shoud be interesting.
Kelly (234)-
Check the subtitle of this blog. The current political panderfest- and the relentless bribery of the American public- will have huge repercussions in the housing market.
Just wait ’til we’re all singing Woody Guthrie songs around garbage drum fires.
Weren’t they referring to Ol’ Teddie Highball as Jabba the Hut several years ago?
The guy is a cartoon.
kelly –
politicians always get hammered on this blog –
i notice that when democrats get insulted, it’s “a little much” – and feelings seem to be hurt –
why is that?
Confused In NJ Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
My own prediction is an Obama(D)/Clinton(D) ticket. Bloomberg(I) enters as an Independent, to act as a Perot like spoiler. This move is countered by McCain(R) breaking ranks and adding Lieberman(I) as VP. Shoud be interesting.
#1 isn’t the O/C relationship poisoned beyond repair? It seems as if Edwards has a better shot on either ticket…..
#2 The above scenario leaves out the conservatives and other politically active religious types……(Scrub B)Rush Limbaugh suggests that they would stay home…..
240. In the spirit of equality, George Bush doubled the National Debt, so he “can’t be smarter than a fifth grader”.
Kelly Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Where is the RE talk – it sounds like this could be Free Republic with all this Dem bashing – Obama is an antichrist, Kennedy is a killer, the Clinton Monarchy. I know the election is coming but this is getting a little much.
R: The current situation (in all its aspects)has basically gift wrapped the Presidency to the Democrats. However, despite the obvious advantage, they still find need to pander. It is understandable on the campaign trail when a candidate has to move left to get the nomination, but what about the detritus being belched from the Beltway.
Honestly, you have some intelligent and well-intentioned guy such as Chuck Schumer, and I honestly cannot believe the patent stupidity and ignorance that drools out of his mouth on things economic…..
tcm (239)-
“I notice that when democrats get insulted, it’s “a little much”
I called Hillary a skank ho here several weeks ago, to much approval.
BTW, I’m beginning to think “skank ho” might not be too nice a description.
240. chicagofinance Says
#1 isn’t the O/C relationship poisoned beyond repair? It seems as if Edwards has a better shot on either ticket…..
Logically yes, but the end justifies the means, and political expedience makes for strange bed fellows.
#2 The above scenario leaves out the conservatives and other politically active religious types……(Scrub B)Rush Limbaugh suggests that they would stay home…..
McCain can dust off his prisoner of war suit, and Lieberman can actually be a hawk when he wants to be. He also nullifies Bloomberg and draws from Clintons stash.
Being an Independent myself, Parties don’t mean too much to me. I prefer voting for the person.
I prefer preparing for American Revolution II.
245.Clotpoll
A good scout is prepared for all alternatives.
Clotpoll Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 6:40 pm:
“I called Hillary a skank ho here several weeks ago, to much approval.”
yikes – i missed that one – tough crowd.
Clot –
I understand the political implications to the housing market – but remember we have another 12 months that have still have enormous impacts – and with a Senate split 50-49-1 things can get stalled very easily. The makeup of congress will have a huge impact on what the next President will be able to push through.
In fact one who has the talent could probably write an excellent essay about the Iraq War’s impact onto housing market – everything is intertwined.
It seemed as things were going off on tangents. However if anyone can explain how Chappaquiddick can currently or in the future impact the NJ housing market in anyway I will issue an apology and shut up.
248. Chappaquiddick’s direct impact on the NJ housing market was in 1969 when a Berkeley Heights NJ family buried a daughter.
The impact of the candidates currently running for office will be determined by how they recognize and plan to solve the current issues. In South Carolina, John Edwards who proclaimed himself the “Grown Up Democratic Candidate”, built upon earlier explainations from IOWA, on what the problems were and how to solve them. Up to this point he has articulated the best understanding, on the Democratic side, of what the issues are. Unfortunately, he is also far behind in the Polls. Assuming some candidate, with a viable chance at winning, can actually speak to the real issues, then there is a possibility that one would know who to vote for, to positively effect change to the economic environment, including housing.
None of the candidates have espoused an understanding, on par with recent exposes like 60 minutes. If you can’t, or won’t, recognize the root problem, you can’t solve it.
The next President & Congress has to be able to do that, to be effective. It is doubtfull if the existing long time encumbents, asleep at the switches, are up to the task.
Kelly (248)-
“…everything is intertwined.”
“…if anyone can explain how Chappaquiddick can currently or in the future impact the NJ housing market in anyway I will issue an apology and shut up.”
I’ll go with your “intertwined” premise and try to apply it to Chappaquiddick and its impact on NJ housing. Sort of a six degrees of separation (except this might be 11 or 12 degrees):
1. Kennedy drives off bridge, commits involuntary manslaughter.
2. Kennedy- by dint of family connection- avoids prosecution.
3. Kennedy’s Presidential aspirations are dashed. Instead, he is now set up to spend the rest of his life in the Senate, where he can do far more damage in 25+ years (and counting) than he ever could as President for 8 years.
4. After defeating multiple challengers- including Mitt Romney- over several election cycles, Kennedy decides to do away with even the pretense that he’s anything other than a card-carrying wealth redistributor.
5. As a card-carrying c@mmu!st, Kennedy clamors for more extension of credit to lower-income borrowers. Eventually, and unfortunately, he sees his wish come true, beginning in the early ’00s.
6. When all the people who took out loans they couldn’t repay begin to default, Kennedy rails against the lenders who made the loans.
7. When the lenders, Paulson and Bernanke get their story together and give Pelosi the framework for a bank bailout- disguised as economic stimulus for private citizens- Kennedy cannot wait for the proposal to hit the Senate, so he can load it up with billions more in giveaways to his favorite constituency: the welfare class.
8. Of course, Paulson, Bernanke, Bush (in about an hour) and the entire House has urged the Senate to rubber-stamp the proposal and not add more weight to an agreement that is so spring-loaded for self-detonation, any revision could sink it.
9. Inevitably, Kennedy’s attempts to load the relief bill with more pandering giveaways will sink the whole thing. No $600 checks, no designer jeans, no Fannie Mae jumbo mortgages, no $725,000 FHA loans…nothing.
10. The destruction of housing as an asset class continues. Same as it ever was.
bewm (207)
Good link, thanks for posting it.
Confused In NJ:
You say (in Response #6), “The Government’s roles was sometimes overt like nullifying the Glass-Steagall Act or prempting State Laws against predatory lending ….”
When and how did “the Government” prempt State laws against predatory lending?
252.Gollum:
Sunday Star Ledger Section 2 page 3 has good article “Feds were enablers in subprime mortgage crisis” by Nicholas Bagley. Full article link below. Essentially the Treasury Department OCC pre-empted several states laws in 2005 which were attempting to regulate predatory lending and minimize it’s effects on State Investment Funds.
http://www.law.nyu.edu/pubs/magazine/autumn2005/documents/p98_102a.pdf
clot 250
“5. As a card-carrying c@mmu!st, Kennedy clamors for more extension of credit to lower-income borrowers. Eventually, and unfortunately, he sees his wish come true, beginning in the early ’00s.”
Republicans had a stranglehold on the body politic in the early ’00s. I didn’t realize Teddy ballgame was running the show.
Confused In NJ:
The OCC preemption means that nationally chartered banks located in each of the 50 States are subject to national banking law not the banking law of the State that it is located in.
State chartered banks, State incorporated mortgage brokers, and State incorporated mortgage banks are subject to State law.
As there are no federally incorporated mortgage brokers or federally incorporated mortgage banks, your point about federal preemption was overstated.