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jamesbednar@gmail.com
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From Bloomberg:
Merrill Lynch to Reimburse Massachusetts City for CDO Purchase
Merrill Lynch & Co. agreed to pay Springfield, Massachusetts, $13.9 million to settle a dispute over collateralized debt obligations it sold the city that plunged in value.
The money will reimburse Springfield for the cost of the so-called CDOs, securities tied to loans, mortgages and other debts that have been battered as more U.S. homeowners failed to make mortgage payments. New York-based Merrill said it agreed to refund the money after discovering the purchase was made without the city’s consent.
“My focus all along has been to recoup these funds for the taxpayers of Springfield,” Springfield Mayor Domenic Sarno said in a statement released last night. “In my view, Merrill Lynch has now done the right thing.”
From the Wall Street Journal:
Two federal regulators urged lenders to take quick action to avoid a surge in losses tied to the weakening credit cycle, with one forecasting an increase in bank failures.
Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan said the federal government planned to ramp up its scrutiny of commercial-real-estate loans, while Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said lenders must act to slow foreclosures on residential borrowers with interest-only and other nontraditional mortgages.
Congress and others have criticized the regulators for not doing enough sooner to prevent the current credit-market turmoil.
From BusinessWeek:
Getting Knocked Down by Prime ARMs
We’ve been reading a lot lately about how subprime mortgages have submarined the economy. Lenders and banks have been taken to the woodshed for irresponsibly giving money to home buyers with poor credit just so they could bundle up the mortgages and resell them as toxic residential-mortgage bonds. But, while there’s no denying the subprime problem, on closer look it’s clear that even prime borrowers were taking on more debt than they could afford.
How bad is it? In Arizona, between the third quarters of 2006 and 2007, there was a 902% rise in foreclosures started against homeowners who had prime adjustable-rate mortgages, known as ARMs, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assn. ARMs, whether prime or subprime, are the real culprit in the housing crisis because they’ve allowed too many people to buy homes with almost no money down, with the hope that they could flip the properties or have rates drop before the loans reset.
The rise in prime ARM foreclosure starts isn’t isolated to a few states. Nationally, foreclosure starts related to prime ARMs jumped 253% in the third quarter of 2007 when compared to a year earlier.
“The fact is the pain of the changing real estate markets is affecting more than just subprime borrowers,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice-president of HSH Associates, a New Jersey-based financial information publisher. “It’s more important to think of it as perhaps an ARM problem and a rate reset problem, not just a subprime problem.”
From Bloomberg:
Goldman Says Banks May Face $60 Billion in Writedowns
Banks may face additional writedowns of as much as $60 billion this year from investments in commercial real estate and non-traditional residential mortgages, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said.
Commercial real estate prices may fall 21 percent to 26 percent from current levels, resulting in writedowns for banks of about $20 billion, Goldman Sachs said today in a report.
Home price declines will probably drive defaults in non- traditional loans such as Alt-As made to borrowers with good credit scores who lack documentation needed to qualify for prime credits, resulting in $40 billion in markdowns, the analysts added.
The collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market has led to about $146 billion of losses and markdowns at securities firms and banks since the beginning of 2007. Losses may exceed $265 billion as regional U.S. banks, credit unions and overseas financial institutions write down the value of their holdings, Standard & Poor’s said this week.
“Despite recent rate cuts, credit concerns should remain the dominant theme driving relative performance in financials,” the Goldman analysts, who were not identified, said. “Near-term mark- to-market losses on commercial real estate and exotic mortgage loans are unlikely to be ameliorated by recent policy actions.”
From the LA Times:
Pets losing homes, humans in foreclosures
Being forced to put her house on the market by the real estate meltdown was stressful enough for Kathryn Ecdao. Leaving Roxy and Bear behind made matters much worse.
The 4-year-old Labrador-German shepherd mixes weren’t welcome at the rental Ecdao moved into a few miles away. So she makes daily trips to her now-empty former home in Anaheim Hills to care for the dogs and is desperately trying to find someone to adopt them before the place is sold.
“We can keep them there as long as the house is in limbo,” said Ecdao, who can’t afford to board Roxy and Bear. “But that’s not fair to the dogs. They’re not getting the attention that they deserve.”
Actually, Roxy and Bear are among the luckier four-legged victims of the housing crisis. As more and more Californians are turned out of their homes by foreclosures or forced sales, family pets — especially dogs and cats — are being left behind to fend for themselves.
“These people don’t know what’s going to happen to them, and they figure someone will take care of the cat,” said Jacky deHaviland, who works with a Los Angeles-area group called Muttshack Animal Rescue. “They say, ‘I can’t even deal with this. How can I deal with that?’ ”
For DiAnna Pfaff-Martin of Newport Beach, founder of the Animal Network of Orange County, the wake-up call came last week when she got five new adoption cases — four dogs and a cat — because their owners had lost their homes.
“This is the first time I’ve had this kind of problem since I started doing this in 1996,” Pfaff-Martin said.
#1) aren’t the bulk of prime arms going to reset starting in 2010?
I know there is a chart thats been floating around for a while showing current and future resets of subprime/alt-a/prime…
From Bloomberg:
Macklowe to Sell GM Building This Month to Pay Debt, People Say
New York real estate developer Harry Macklowe plans to sell the General Motors Building on Manhattan’s Fifth Avenue this month to help settle debts to Deutsche Bank AG, people with knowledge of the situation said.
crossroads,
https://njrereport.com/images/armresets.gif
I just pulled this off of Calculated Risk.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RxzD0s_7EYI/AAAAAAAABB4/ljDSXZhMG3o/s1600-h/IMFresets.jpg
anyone sign up for their newsletter? I’m thinking about it
sorry. Grim your fast
Grim,
are option arms prime borrowers?
They can be, yes. The name “Option” refers to the pick-a-payment feature specifically, not the nature of the borrower, unlike other loans (Prime ARM, Subprime ARM).
I’m not sure why this classification isn’t broken down like the others, there is certainly both a prime and subprime component.
These loans were heavily marketed as affordability or cash management loans to those with good credit and income. I was on the receiving end of the pitch on more than one occasion, and let me tell you, it was convincing. Cash tight this month? Pay the ARM. Cash really tight this month? Pay the IO. Lost your job? Pay the Neg-Am.
I know mortgage brokers that did a tremendous amount of these loans over the past few years. Most borrowers were qualified at the IO (Initial ARM rate) payment levels with the anticipation that future salary increases would allow them to move up to the amortizing payment.
Is the “option ARM” like the “ALT A?” Is that the one where they have a ceiling where it can reset? In other words – could you explain which is which in those stats?
Wow! Microsoft bids for Yahoo.
What’s next, Google buying Moto?
(Grim) just read your 13 – I must have been typing 14 when it was posted – thanks…
“Wow! Microsoft bids for Yahoo.”
JB,
Don’t forget Rio.
Are you catching Jim Rogers of Roger’s Holding on Bloomberg T.V.? He just said Ben “Doesn’t know what he’s doing.” He said “This is a very dangerous and serious situation.” Commercial break – he may be back to say more…
From the AP:
FBI Director: Mortgage Fraud Substantial
FBI Director Robert Mueller said Thursday that the agency is committed to investigating and prosecuting companies involved in mortgage fraud and other violations in connection with home loans made to risky borrowers.
Mueller said probes were being conducted across the country, including in Hawaii, where he stopped on his way back from a trip through Asia.
“There is not a state that does not have some investigation,” he told reporters at the FBI office in Honolulu. “It is a substantial problem but we’ve been through problems like this in the past.”
The FBI said Tuesday it was working with the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate 14 companies, from mortgage lenders to investment banks, for possible accounting fraud, insider trading or other issues connected to subprime mortgage lending.
Mueller declined to identify the companies.
The FBI allocated substantial manpower and resources to address the savings and loan crisis in the early 1990s and corporate fraud earlier this decade, and Mueller said he was prepared to do the same to address fraudulent lenders.
“I anticipate that we will see the same extensive investigations that we saw then with successful prosecutions following those investigations,” Mueller said.
Is it Berngabe or Bengabe?
Jim Rogers is still on Bloomberg. He just said – When asked “What should Ben Bernanke do?” “He should resign!”
Ber-gabe
What’s next, Google buying Moto?
You say it like it’s a bad thing.
:p
A much better indicator than the BS #’s. Sorry, the BLS #’s.
“Monster Employment Index Declines in January”
— Index falls nine points, indicating further moderation in U.S. online recruitment activity
— Online demand in the financial sector eases further as layoffs in banking industry continue
— Fewer opportunities for retail and sales occupations indicates caution among employers.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080131/20080130006422.html?.v=1
Note: Regarding #25, Monster does not utilize birth/death models.
http://new.gsmls.com/public/detailLst.do?mlsNum=2459838
This is the type of price that’s going to pull comps down. I don’t know if there’s anything major wrong with it besides the obvious but it’s on a great street. When we were looking 10 years ago, this would have been the perfect starter house.
Xanadu 2? Maybe a brownfield golf resort?
From the AP:
GM sells Linden property to real estate developer
General Motors has sold its Linden plant to an investment trust.
The $77 million sale to Duke Realty comes nearly three years after the final SUV rolled off the assembly line. The plant was closed as part of a restructuring.
The plant operated for nearly 70 years and once employed 6,000 workers.
-17K
Can’t be.
Ben knew, end of story.
Probably -80K if you subtract B/D
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Jan. nonfarm payrolls decline by 17,000
Job growth contracted in January for the first time in more than four years, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 17,000 in January much weaker than the 85,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.9% in January from 5.0% in the previous month. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to remain steady at 5.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 4 cents, or 0.2% to $17.75. Economists had been expecting a 0.2% gain. Earnings are up 3.7% in the past year. The average workweek fell to 33.7 hours from 33.8 hours in December. Economists were expecting the workweek to remain steady.
I can’t believe how long it takes to play this out. I keep waiting for the “big drop” in RE prices and equities. Maybe this job report will move things along.
Why don’t you got out to the corner and sell children crack cocaine. It is morally irresponsible to sell people houses. Why don’t you just get a gun and rob the people of 100K of their life savings, that is what you are doing when you sell a house in a falling market.
grim Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 6:08 am
Auto-email listings now available!
Just drop me an email with your search criteria and I’ll gladly set one up.
jamesbednar@gmail.com
About 1.7 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to
the labor force in January, up from about 1.6 million a year earlier. These indivi-
duals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the
prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, therewere 467,000 discouraged workers in January, about the same as a year earlier. Dis-couraged workers were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. The other 1.3 million persons marginally
attached to the labor force in January had not searched for work in the 4 weeks pre-
ceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
#35: What is wrong with looking at listings?
Could the John’s please clarify which John is speaking?
like, John1, John2 …
John did you hit the crack pipe this morn,Grim is trying to keep us informed not sell us a house.
I heard a “call a realtor” commercial on the radio this morning.
It’s early; I’m on my first cup of coffee. But I could swear they said that houses double in value every 10 years.
I didn’t know a schitzo could have 2 personalities with the same name.
“Why don’t you got out to the corner and sell children crack cocaine.”
John,
Why don’t you go suck on your exhaust pipe.
I’m an absolutely terrible real estate agent.
I’ve convinced a tremendous number of people to not buy, to wait, to walk away from deals, to save, and to live within their means.
But those that did buy, having known me, went into the transaction more informed than they were before.
I can’t stop anyone from buying, believe me when I say that there is a good number of buyers who are intent on buying, despite the outlook. They truely do not care, market declines are irrelevant to them. If you are going to go ahead and do it, at least take the time to know what you are getting into.
grim Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 8:26 am
Xanadu 2? Maybe a brownfield golf resort?
From the AP:
GM sells Linden property to real estate developer
General Motors has sold its Linden plant to an investment trust.
The $77 million sale to Duke Realty comes nearly three years after the final SUV rolled off the assembly line. The plant was closed as part of a restructuring.
The plant operated for nearly 70 years and once employed 6,000 workers
I drive by this plant almost every day. Demolution of the plant started yesterday – I xpect to see a shopping mall or condos around – by the way – HORRIBLE location for housing as you have buisnesess/railroad on one side and shopping mall/linden airport on the other side.
P.S. I never realized that someone would pay 77 mil for the site – One question – which side of the transaction is responsible for demolution/enviromental costs of the deal???
By the way – guess to where were the truck factory relocated???
John – the people who are buying houses now are will probably be better off than the ones who bought in 2005-2006 – cheaper prices, stricter financing rules, more knowledgeable about creative financing pitfalls. Additionally, if you are reading this site you are not some naif. Grim’s readers are probably the few who are buying now that know what they are getting into.
#35 John,
Thats a bit harsh.
EmigrantDirect dropped this morning to 4.05% from 4.30%.
grrrrrrrrr
(#35) How rude!
Many people need to buy at any given time for any number of reasons. That is precisely why the best in real estate survive year after year. Grim will be one of those survivors.
From the Wall Street Journal —
NAR Campaign Touts Real Estate as a Great Investment
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2008/01/29/nar-campaign-touts-real-estate-as-a-great-investment/
Is it just us, or does the National Association of Realtors’ new public awareness campaign –- launched earlier this month – seem just a tad out of whack?
As home prices slide and some debt-straddled homeowners lose their homes to foreclosure, the trade group is pushing the concept that buying a house is nothing but a sure-fire, winning investment.
In a NAR television ad that is now running, the trade group maintains: “A home isn’t just a great place to raise a family, it’s also the key to building long-term wealth. On average, the value of a home nearly doubles every 10 years,” the ad says.
scribe 40 Yes you did big NAR ad blitz.I posted it a while ago something like 40 mil in ads tv ,radio.
re: (40) scribe
You heard the new NAR campaign. They said something like a house double in price every 10 years on average and 60% of a homeowners wealth comes from their equity.
Here is the info.
http://www.housingmarketfacts.com/
Funny to hear it on Bloomberg Radio, a few times a day.
#40 – read post #49 and weep
From Seeking Alpha:
Now is Not the Time to Buy Homebuilders
http://tinyurl.com/2rckex
“Again you want to buy these stocks maybe 6-9 months before a turn in the housing market. People now believe with the flooding of liquidity, lowering of 30 year rates, and the ability to stuff Fannie/Freddie with overpriced expensive mortgages, the housing market will be back by summer or fall. I just can’t get on that bandwagon. In my opinion mortgage rates can be zero and for many people if they are forced to put a down payment down (in a country full of people who do not save), they still can’t afford homes. So I am not sure where this flood of new buyers comes from. Without a return to 0% down mortgages we won’t see any swift recovery. It’s as simple as that.”
Municipal Bond New issuance declines in January for the first time since 9/11.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20080131V8T09AD2&from=home
#51 “You heard the new NAR campaign.”
This sucks. We’re all sitting here whinning about the reality over-priced housing, with no politicians or special interest groups to represent us… or I should say THE TRUTH.
Grim – You need to run for office
Bush may actually have a point on people needing Financial Education. Some younger people I know have bought over priced houses which they can keep the payments current on, but the balances are so high that it morgages their futures. They will find out that down the road, childrens college educations and their own retirements have been sacrified, to pay the super mortgage beast. Something not obvious, unless you take a holistic long term view of finances. Something many people are unaware of. If you’ve lived through lifes major milestones you are more cognizant of this then those starting out. When we had simple sane metrics like 2-3x’s Salary for Mortgages, this was built in protection for the future milestones.
John is right on.
Never trust a real estate agent, ever. It doesn’t matter who they are. They are salespeople first and foremost. Commission comes first, you are a far distant second. Fiduciary responsibility means nothing to most agents, it is nothing but “mumbo-jumbo” in the fine print. Any agent who diagrees is a liar.
This is especially so for myself, never ever trust me.
The world would be a better place if real estate agents were treated like used car (house?) salesmen.
This goes for the NAR as well (to which I am a dues-paying member). Never, ever, trust what the NAR says. They represent us, the Realtors, and our business interests. Their job as head cheerleader is not to get you to buy or sell a home, but to get you to use a Realtor to buy and sell a home. Never make the mistake of thinking that the NAR is a consumer-oriented organization, nothing could be so far from the truth.
#43 grim: They truely do not care, market declines are irrelevant to them.
Why in your opinion are market declines irrelevant to them? is it a matter of they have so much monty that they just don’t care, or something else? For them to say declines are irrelevant, seems to me to be foolish.
x-roads (10)-
Cool chart, but there’s another kind of adjustment that’s going to bring those option ARMs to a resolution well-before 2011: the negative amortization maximum.
When negative amortization adds another 10-12% to the principal balance, the minimum payment option is taken away from the borrower and replaced by mandatory principal + interest payments.
Hey, John (35)-
Everybody’s not you. Not everyone is in the same situation. Markets don’t go to 0 when they drop (although this one seems to want to try).
Take a Paxil, and turn your brain back on.
#35 john
That is really harsh! People need to buy a house for various reasons, not every one can wait for the bottom, and frankly no one know when the bottom is, if I do, I can buy a house now and then short the housing index to that date to cover myself.
grim: the auto-listing is much appreciated, just want to check: does that bind the user and you in a buyer-agent agreement?
3b,
Largest portion of these are not first time buyers, but are trade up buyers, or multi-trade up buyers sitting on large equity positions.
I’ll cite one case, only because he was a personal friend and would share this himself if he were a regular here.
He was a buyer looking in the $1m-$1.5m range. To make the move he was selling his primary residence, a single family, as well as a 2 family rental property. Net proceeds from the sale were rolled into a downpayment on the home, remaining balance was small enough to handle on a 15y fixed.
Purchase was FSBO, dealing directly with a builder, negotiated what I would call a good price in the current market.
I’m sure he’ll have the home paid off in less than 5.
He didn’t buy a home at all, he simply traded two homes (3 units) he already owned for another.
A declining market would likely have hurt him more than it would have helped. His properties weren’t in “top-tier” towns, and would likely have been hit. Likewise, he was able to leverage the soft upper-priced markets while still being able to command a strong price for his own properties.
Can you give me the status of MLS ID# 2730020
Thanks in advance.
With all of this talk about not trusting agents, why use a buyer’s agent at all?
regarind the reset chart linked in #9
The next peak of resets in 2010 is going to coincide with an increase in the # of boomers who wants to sell their homes and move to whatever warm locale is the current retirement hotspot. Housing will not be recovering by then, the core financial of the US economy are too FUBAR’d. I suspect that the 2010 event will be an event that very few people will expect or consider until it is already here. You will have a growing number of seniors who cannot sell their homes or are selling for (relatively) low prices compared to what they planned on since their home is their retirement fund in many cases. Can you say bailout # 2?
Oh and Bergabe is a classic. how much does it such to become known as the american mugabe on national television? :)
RtB,
With all of this talk about not trusting agents, why use a buyer’s agent at all?
Go one step further, deal directly with FSBOs and take the real estate brokerage model entirely out of the picture.
I can point you to some very successful residential RE investors that have never used a real estate agent, but simply deal with word-of-mouth and their own attorney. I know people who have consumated tremendous deals in the lounge of a funeral parlor.
Don’t be afraid to ring a doorbell and ask an owner if they are interested in selling.
grim
what about realtytrac.com for foreclosures? Is this something to use?
#43,58, my understanding are
1. living in an apt has less to enjoy than in a house.
2. if not to buy, there are very limited houses for rent. Even if you luckily find one, the landlord may decide not to renew after one year.
3. life is short. Who wanna live in apt forever. Wait, wait until when?
Good realtors don’t act like used car salesmen. My sister is a realtor in NC, and she’s been known to tell buyers to wait and save more money so that they can get a conventional mortgage. She’s “fired” sellers who want too much and buyers who just can’t be satisfied for the amount of money they have. She would rather have the clients she has be satisfied with what she offers than have a huge flock of pissed-off former customers.
Problem is, there are a lot of crappy realtors out there who saw the field as a get-rich-quick scheme. Hopefully the crash will shake those all out.
OT: Co-worker’s son that I wrote about last week is looking at houses in Springfield this weekend. Any thoughts on that town?
If prices drop sufficiently, either from this bubble, or boomer impact, young people with mortgages significantly exceeding their market value, will simply walk away, enmass. Something which has never occurred in quantity, before. Then real estate will operate under the rules of Chaos Theory.
#62 grim: That makes perfect sense, but I would think there are far less of those types, then the first time home buyer, and the simple trade up buyer.
But I can definitely see how in that scenario yoru friend would be indifferent to the declines.
In fact I believe that the marginal towns are going to get whacked even more in this downturn, so get out while you still possibly can makes perfect sense.
#63
Number must not be a GSMLS #.
Sorry.
#69
Springfield is ok, but I’m not sure about the direction that town is heading in.
#68 3. life is short. Who wanna live in apt forever. Wait, wait until when?
wait until it makes sense financially. Life is even shorter if you are struggling to make the payments.
The novelty and excitement of being a homeowner wears off, and life moves on. The consequences of making a poor financial decesion and struggling to pay a mtg will do damage for years.
grim (57)-
Sorry to hear you say that, although it’s mostly true.
However, a good agent should be able to earn your trust. When I was coming up, I was taught that even the most unscrupulous scammer can conjure up 12-14 deals a year: enough to keep going in RE. The hard part in RE is making the deals you do turn into MORE deals, via referrals and repeat business. The only way to make that happen is to treat the client in front of you fairly and honestly. If that person walks away feeling duped…or discovers two years later that you stuck it to him, there go those referrals and repeat deals.
I expect people whom I’ve never met not to trust me when we start working together. For that reason, I write clauses into my listing agreements that allow the seller to terminate the listing at any time, and for no reason. I have no problem demonstrating that I’m a trustworthy person before expecting to be trusted.
It is not impossible to do well in this business by putting client interests first. I look at it this way: I’m not happy until they are happy, and I’m not getting paid until their needs are properly met.
what about realtytrac.com for foreclosures? Is this something to use?
Realize that they are providing you with what is free and public information, you are paying them a significant amount of money for the convenience of doing so.
If your search is confined to a small area, you can get the same information, in a more timely fashion, by doing the legwork yourself.
A number of NJ counties make their Sheriff Sale data available online, for free. Lis Pendens is easily available at your local county clerk’s office.
I must ask the question though, what do you think you’ll be able to do with this data?
Take a day off work and go to a sheriff sale to understand what goes on, and whether you want to compete with the sharks that normally circle there. Also realize that a lender is unlikely to let you get a property for under the upset price. Because many of these foreclosure sales are “underwater” (owing more than the house is worth), “winning” one of these means you really lost (winner’s curse).
I am harsh because their is always a false bottom in a downturn, going to look at houses and you find your dream house you will get sucked in and buy it. Plus I want the 2005/2006 people to go under have the banks take back houses in REO and then still no one buys it. I want RTC to come back and to have a massive selling of house at cents on the dollar. That will bring a quick bottom, Remember after the tech mletdown the first quarter of 2001 looked like it was turning around and the worst was yet to come.
#75
I think grim was being 75% sarcastic in his post.
Laugh and the world laughs with you, Cry and you cry alone.
75
Our agent that sold our house this year was awesome. I would recommend her to anyone in a heartbeat. I wish I could have used her for a buyer’s agent (not that she takes buyers out).
She also had the part in our listing agreement that we could terminate at anytime, for no reason. That really made an impact on us when we were choosing her. She didn’t need or want us to be chained to her; she was confident that her work would stand on its own and it did.
I have to say though, unfortunately, she was a rare find, as I’ve dealt with a number of agents.
I think the bar is too low to be an agent, maybe there are just too many of them now?
It is an oxymoron to be a nice realtor, you are only good to your sellers in 2005-2007, you ripped off your buyers. The sellers pay you not the buyers, you job it to sell the house for as much as possible not to worry about the buyer. That said there is nothing wrong with being a RE agent it is a business, but don’t rationlize it. If I get the best of someone in a deal I admit it. Realtors want to stick someone with a house that lost 100K and rationlize it that over time they will make money, they won’t. If your sister was truly ethical she would not be in sales. I sold plenty of things and my goal was to maximize profit for my company, I never said woo woo I am a great person and a million dollars consulting fees for a few powerpoints is a great deal to the client.
bu Jill Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 9:28 am
Good realtors don’t act like used car salesmen. My sister is a realtor in NC, and she’s been known to tell buyers to wait and save more money so that they can get a conventional mortgage. She’s “fired” sellers who want too much and buyers who just can’t be satisfied for the amount of money they have. She would rather have the clients she has be satisfied with what she offers than have a huge flock of pissed-off former customers.
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2008/fil08002.html#body
Processing Deposit Accounts in a Bank Failure;
Modernizing Large-Bank Insurance Determinations
Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
Last time this was updated was in 1999.
#75
Ok, ok. I admit that I tend to go a bit too far when I rant.
There are good agents out there, you know it, I know it, and I’m sure a number of people here would say the ame.
The problem is that there is a disproportionate number of bad agents.
Until such time that “good agents” represent the majority, a buyer or seller would be better off approaching all of them as bad, until otherwise proven.
I believe the prudent and rational buyer or seller should approach any transaction or salesperson with skepticism.
grim (62)-
A perfect example of why not everyone seeking real estate is the same, or has the same needs and expectations.
That’s why the market never goes to 0.
Ann Says:
First of all ANN she is not your agent, she is the seller agent, I would never use an agent to sell a home that makes the buyer happy, I want the buyer pissed he overpaid for the home. I can give great deals on my own why would I pay an agent 6% to give away my house. I had a “great” agent sell me my house, she was great cause she priced it too low and told the seller to throw in repairs and lots of other stuff. I told my wife anyone who pays her to sell a home is an idiot, but I would call her in a second to buy a home.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:41 am
75
Our agent that sold our house this year was awesome. I would recommend her to anyone in a heartbeat. I wish I could have used her for a buyer’s agent (not that she takes buyers out).
#66 grim: Don’t be afraid to ring a doorbell and ask an owner if they are interested in selling.
I will be doing that this weekend, becasue of some information I got through the grapevine.
Vodka (65)-
Mix into that the possibility that many of those boomer homes will also be reverse-mortgaged to the hilt, and Houston, we’ve got a problem.
68
There are sacrifices when you rent.
As you said, when renting, you are at the whim of the landlord. They can kick you out at the end of the lease. This can become a huge PITA and expense when you start accumulating a lot of furniture, or when you have children and constantly have to keep moving them around. If you have school-age kids, it becomes even more a PITA, because they you have to worry about getting a new rental in the same school district, if you don’t want to move your kids to a different school possibly every year.
There is something to say for owning your own house, where you know you are going to be for a long time. You can paint it, decorate it, buy the right furniture for it, make it just the way you want, things that YOU get to enjoy now. Things that you won’t necessarily do in a rental.
Maybe I’m just being a girl and being sentimental, but I like the idea, now that we are in our new home, that my kids are going to be here for a while, I can decorate it, make it look the way I want it to look. Settle down. That the friends I make here can be friends for a long time.
I do think that if people buy right now, they should buy something that they can live in for a long, long time, because you may not be able to sell it again for the price you bought it for for a long, long time. Under buying is not a good idea, you might as well rent until you can afford a forever house.
85
She was my listing agent. Huh?
Jill (69)-
If you want, send me your sister’s contacts thru Grim. I’d be happy to refer people her way. She sounds like a real pro.
My office did 28 NJ to NC moves last year. It’s a big chunk of business, since that’s where everybody’s headed.
#87 clot: Mix into that the possibility that many of those boomer homes will also be reverse-mortgaged to the hilt, and Houston, we’ve got a problem.
Are you seeing some of that now, with current sellers? I thought reverse mtgs were relatively new, and or not that common in this area.
3b (91)-
Reverse mortgages? Not new at all. And, NJ was one of the first places they took hold.
Are there two Johns on here?
Nothing wrong with ringing doorbells or talking to neighbors if you are serious.
My sister lives in a nice little community, everyone on the block knows everyone else. Lots of kids and young families, block parties are common.
Her neighbor is an elderly gentleman that has lived in the community all his life. He is looking to downsize as the property has become too much for him to handle.
We’ve spoken on a number of occasions, we’ve shaken hands on him giving me first-choice when he sells. No agents involved and I’m sure we’ll strike up a fair price. He feels he has a connection with the neighborhood, and he enjoys knowing that it’ll give me an opportunity to live next door to family.
#92 clot: Did not know on either count. One more thing to throw into the brew.
394 grim: I am cautiously optimistic on this particular situation,so I am hoping it works out. It would be so easy for many reasons.
Ann (80)-
“I think the bar is too low to be an agent, maybe there are just too many of them now?”
The situation is improving daily. My Palm acts as a Superkey (keybox access device), and it also holds the database of current GSMLS agents.
I started a download at 11 AM yesterday, and agents were still being purged from the database at 4 PM.
Kettle Check out this house,you should be on 287 in 20 min from there.From your past post this might be close enough to your job.
No need to fix up.Lower end of Vernon closest to highways.
http://emailrpt.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=27928863_11260
Kelly (63)
That listing expired on 1/25 and has been re-listed under 2804280 as of 1/31
Additional Info
SLD $355,000 8/3/2005
2730020 (New construction)
ACT $889,900 7/24/2007
PCH $799,900 9/7/2007
PCH $749,900 12/27/2007
EXP $749,900 1/25/2008
2804280
ACT $744,900 1/31/2008
John (81)-
“If your sister was truly ethical she would not be in sales.”
John, you’re the kind of person I’ll probably meet five of at a Super Bowl party on Sunday:
– well-presented
– pleasant, even funny
– articulate
– personable
– clueless
Clot,
I’m jealous, I wanted one of those but they don’t support BlackBerry (or rather, BlackBerry doesn’t have the IR functionality required to work with the system).
Once my Verizon contract is up, I’ll be dumping the BB for a eKey compatible phone.
Ket first one on link.
#88. Thanks Ann for your detail. I am with you.
Ann (89)-
John (the racist, blockhead version) is suffering from classic Dunning-Kruger syndrome:
http://tinyurl.com/ywj6vb
grim, you said:
Don’t be afraid to ring a doorbell and ask an owner if they are interested in selling
I would say that it’s better to send a letter, if you’re a complete stranger.
“The Federal Reserve said Friday it will provide $60 billion in fresh cash to commercial banks in two auctions in February and will keep holding auctions every other week for as long as needed to ease the credit crisis.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080201/fed_credit_crisis.html
Does anyone know what’s going on? Are the banks insolvent or something?
From Bloomberg:
Bush Subprime Plan Undermined, States Shun Borrowers
President George W. Bush’s proposal to help 1 million subprime borrowers avoid foreclosure with tax- exempt bonds has an obstacle: states don’t want the risk any more than private lenders do.
The state housing agencies that are already offering mortgage refinancing options are turning away so many applicants that they’ve had no need to raise funds. Since New York said it would commit $100 million in July, three of the 500 loans envisioned have been made. Massachusetts extended four loans under a $250 million program started in August, and Ohio made just 36 of the thousands anticipated by Governor Ted Strickland.
The reluctance to lend threatens to undermine a pivotal part of the president’s plan for alleviating the worst housing slump in 26 years. More than 50 percent of subprime borrowers are being rejected by state programs because their homes have lost too much value or they’ve accumulated excessive debt, estimates Geoffrey Cooper, emerging markets director at a unit of MGIC Investment Co., the country’s biggest mortgage insurer.
grim (107)-
What? You can’t refinance negative equity?
That is un-American.
Yeah,
Whatever happened to our good buddy REInvestor?
counterpoint
Even though this decline may continue for a couple more years, when you line it up against the falling value of the dollar a house purchase today may be a good bet if you plan on staying put for awhile.
Anyone here think the dollar will rebound over the next five years?
There are some real solvency issues with banks and bond insurers. That’s the scariest part of the whole thing.
http://tiny.cc/cRFw2
“life is short. Who wanna live in apt forever. Wait, wait until when?”
[68],
When the cows come home.
I can’t help but feel like a geeky real estate hall monitor today. All I need to complete the feeling is to get hit with a half eaten apple, thrown by one of the popular kids for telling them to stop running in the halls.
#112 BC Bob: I think I hear them now. MOOOOOOOOOOOO.
Speaking of being a geeky hall monitor. I used to be a “crossing guard” when I was in grammar school.
Bright orange sash complete a silver badge that almost seemed to glow in the morning sunlight. Armed with a complete lack of authority, I manned my post making the morning safe for my fellow school children.
Now that I think back on it, what a fantastic concept, leveraging no-cost child labor to keep school budgets low.
Does the concept even exist anymore? It’s sad to think that legions of young geeks wouldn’t get the chance to learn a life-changing lesson in what a lack of self efficacy really feels like.
I compared two recently withdrawn townhouses which were listed at $639K & $629K. When I look at Zillow.Com it says they are valued at $549K & $495K respectively. Zillows appears closer to the truth then their Realtors.
106 PQG,
Yes the banks are insolvent.
There was a link posted from the St louis fed that showed that banks currently have a NEGATIVE reserve!!! that is they have had to borrow money in order to cover the 8% cash reserve required by law. This is the same as you or me using a credit card to pay a power bill because we dont have the cash in our account. The link included data back to about 1950 and the banks have never had a negative reserve before!
Mike
Nice house! the exterior and the the location being backed up to a park are near perfect for me. But could you really get to 287 in 20 minuted from their???? i am skeptical.
115. Grim
In Brooklyn PS172, crossing guards aspired to be the Captain, Lieutenant & Sargeant. Crossing guards had all silver badges, while the crossing guard officers had blue, red, and orange centers, on the silver badges. Blue center you were unpaid King.
prof 110
Yes i have had that thought, but i am not sure am comfortable making such a move until i have my finances where i wan them to be. I have no illusions about owning a home and know that in some aspects it will always be a money sink
Wow for an unbiased site you are all pro real estate and realtors. Plus lots of you are also pretty leveraged none of my friends talk about refinancing, they either locked in a low rate in 1993 or 2004 or have it paid off. What is this the 3/27 ARM crowd? The last buying opportunity in RE ended around December 2001, I was pro real estate from December 1991 through 2001 as it made sense, it was cheaper to own then to rent and you did not have to leverage yourself to the point of fiscal irresponsiblity to own. 2002 through 2007 RE has become less of a value proposistion, rising home prices, rising RE taxes and sky high heating fuel has made it less attractive, I sold my investment property and kept my primary house and when and if it makes sense again I will jump in. I bought December 1992 from RTC while most of you were crapping in your pants, I bought Christmas week 1999 while most of you were filling up your bathtubs and buying batteries and I was about to buy in late Sept 2001 but I lost my uncle in 9-11 and did not want to take advantage of the few weeks of good prices. I will be back in 2009 or 2010 buying from the new RTC or from owners going under. This time I have budgeted for a one million dollar property, if the homes I like between 1.3 and 1.5 million his one million I will buy if not I will leave it in the short term bond market until stocks stablized. A house thet was worth 300k in 1994 that shot to 1.3 million in 2006 now priced at 1.1million in a two hundred thousand price reduction is a fools purchase and I ain’t buying. I have my eyes on the mutton town estate the govt is auctioning off due to the owner being indicted for keeping slaves and also another estate where a double murder took place, I also have a plain old bankruptcy estate I am waiting one. I am buying but I want blood and guts and dow 10K and some big ass layoffs coming our way before I buy if ever.
Kettle take a ride check it out if you want to hook up I’ll show you around.The answer is yes I’m at far end of Vernon & can get there in 30 min.Whats your commute times?Even at peak I would say no more than 30.
#121, john, not direct to you but we always here people saying they will buy when it is stablized. IMO, that is almost the time opportunity has already lost.
> if not I will leave it in the short term bond market until stocks stablized.
121
Ya know what makes me say “wow”?
The fact that you think anyone give diddly-squat about you and your past and future “positions” on real estate.
You come across as one large narcissistic ass.
Rich
Forget about NJ homes being an investment.
When this down turn shakes out 3-4 years the
bommers will be getting out of the high tax state,down sizeing to warmer places.As the largest part of population this will keep the market down.
So buy a house you can afford 2.5 income,remember the taxes were alot lower when this worked.Any more than 2.5 & you will be screwed.Upkeep will eat up your gains in 10 years.If you do the math without ego or sentiment in the mix the
best way to go is to rent.
SNIP
In my area plenty of homes to rent so I can take this position.In addition the rentals just sit there.This may change but for now I’m good.If it changes I can always buy,I see a long flat market after this so no hurry.My landlord is just happy to have
me here I pay on time,rare these days.
re: (106) PQG
Cutting the rates did little and now the Fed is going to fire up the printing presses every other week and basically hand money to the banks under the table via the new Term Auction Facility.
Banks borrowing directly from the Fed under TAF are allowed to use even weaker collateral than is allowed for repos, basically write what you think your collerateral is worth at on a cocktail napkin and walk out with the cash.
Kiss the dollar goodbye.
grim 126 in moderation
#123 bi: Nothing is stabalized at the moment, there are no lost opportunities at the moment. But there will be lots of opportunities going forward.
Ah back to the days of the Elementary School “Safety Patrol” where the 8th grade girls kept civility in the halls and the boys opened the car doors for the carpool moms. We were rewarded for all our hard work by a field trip to a Mets game in the spring.
Interesting piece on the BLS revisions over at Big Picture:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/02/bls-overstated.html
grim Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 10:35 am
I used to be a “crossing guard” when I was in grammar school . . . Does the concept even exist anymore?
________________________________________________
Are you kidding? Do you think that today’s typical helicopter parent is going to let little Madison or Hayden/Jaden/Aiden put on an orange sash and step into traffic on the mean streets of Ridgewood and Tenafly? Perish the thought!
From Reuters:
Mortgage insurance cos. may be downgraded – Moody’s
Moody’s Investors Service on Friday said its increased assumptions for losses on mortgage loans could produce downgrades of mortgage insurance companies such as PMI Group Inc.
Moody’s late on Thursday put the insurance financial strength ratings of PMI and Triad Guaranty Insurance Corp. units on review for possible downgrade. It affirmed the ratings on subsidiaries of Genworth Financial and Republic Mortgage Insurance Co., but changed their outlooks to negative.
did anybody watch obama/clinton debate last night? seems they may be on the same ticket soon.
after watching mccain keeping attaching romney on falsed “timetable” wednesday night, i feel rep is over since he is likely to be the nominee.
My block has a few young families with kids, but has a majority of elderly people (over age 75) Which is kind of depressing, many of them are alone because their spouse has passed away, kids live elsewhere, etc and the houses aren’t maintained that well as a result. I guess when you are older you have other issues to deal with such as healthcare, living on a fixed income, etc.
A few weeks ago, an older gentleman who lived across the street from me passed away so now his wife is on her own and she doesnt drive.
Went out last night and met a house appraiser in Charlotte last night he said while some areas are going down (Mostly the expected areas) the majority of areas going up still.
While I have seen a 1%-2% decrease in listing prices he says it may be that realtor’s are doing it to price homes a little better for a quicker sale convincing the sellers that the economy is falling and they shouldn’t list as high. As I stated in previous thread those that are doing this seem to be selling in under 3 months. Maybe they are just asking a fair price instead of trying to get top dollar and sitting on the market longer.
He says his company is expecting to appraise 20% more homes in 2008 than 2007 in the Charlotte area.
A lot was covered but he certainly had compelling remarks that Charlotte area as a while is still on the rise simply because of it being so much cheaper than other areas still.
He did comment that he is seeing a lot of renters from the north taking their money here because that 40K goes a lot further here.
He also said Austin is doing very good as well. Lots of people still moving there for similar reasons. I assume the company he works for has an office there?
I didn’t factor in renters from outside areas moving here but it seems logical because the money goes a longer way, they may not have as much to move so moving costs might be small(U-Haul) to Car load, we still have first time home buyers, and even those with 10-20K which isn’t squat up north helps them put down 10-20% depending on what they are looking for. 100K brand new condo’s do exist. I don’t know how you measure renters jumping the sinking NJ market but its happening.
Something else I am hearing about is parent buying their kids condo’s or homes down here. The kids rent out the extra rooms and claim residency in the state. The rented rooms help pay for the place and the decreased tuitions of being a resident make up for the difference in the condo/home. Making college cost the same as someone who doesnt live in the state but an added bonus of gaining an asset in the end. When they graduate they usually keep renting the place to college students and use the home for potential vacation home in the summer or they sell the home for whatever the home has accrued since the kids were in college.
Re: Safety Patrol
I went to patrol camp summer before sixth grade down on the Delmarva. Kind of like Paris Island for elementary school kids.
Mets games and indoctrination camps?
I feel cheated, I didn’t even get to keep my sash.
I too was on the safety patrol in the 5th and 6th grade.
I got to ride in the back seat of the school bus everyday and had the tiring job of making sure all of the kids stay seated.
Our reward? A free trip to Six Flags Great Adventure every June.
#48 When your real estate agent is selling her $900,000 home in 2005 to rent a place.
That was my sign:
1-That she expected the market was going to drop and knew there was a bubble.
2-That she knew what she was doing and would come out on top in the end.
For the computer geeks out there, very interesting piece on Kerviel from the Register:
How to lose $7.2bn with just a few Basic skills
That anorexic succubus Ann Coulture said last night on Hannity and Colmes that she would campaign for Hillary if McCain was the Republican Nominee.
Nothing sugar coated about John’s posts. Like them or not, they are on the money.
At least he has the guts to tell things how they really are with no excuses, apologies or a$$ kissing that so often accompanies most “pat on the back” posters on this site.
Your ss and 401K is all based on earnings, 40K income may go far in Austin or NC but when you are doing the standard 6% in your 401K you are only banking $2,400 hundred a year for retirement and SS based off 40K income should be enough to keep you in dogfood till your potters funeral. There are no short cuts in life, the trade off for the big house and 9-5 low stress life from 35-60 down south is a living hell of retirement from 60-80.
are the sussex tax records online?
142#, rc, you are right. i don’t agree with john 100% of the time but his post definitely provides most interesting “real-life” info on this board.
Sean,
Regarding
That anorexic succubus Ann Coulture s
Its a man baby!!!!!!
#115
Grim,
Our school district has “Safety Patrol” for 5th graders and they wear a bright yellow sash/belt. They don’t cross kids but they are posted around the school to make sure other kids don’t run, don’t get hurt, etc. Pretty useless but the kids look forward to it in 5th grade.
GM Sells Linden, NJ Property To Developer For $77 Million
February 01, 2008: 10:52 AM EST
LINDEN, N.J. (AP)–General Motors Corp. (GM) has sold its Linden, N.J. plant to an investment trust.
The $77 million sale to Duke Realty comes nearly three years after the final sport utility vehicle rolled off the assembly line. The plant was closed as part of a restructuring.
The plant operated for nearly 70 years and once employed 6,000 workers.
Indianapolis-based Duke previously bought a former GM plant in Baltimore and turned it into an office and industrial park.
The New Jersey site is expected to be used as an industrial and retail site.
Did the safty patrol thing we were given jackets along with badge & sash,real cool!
Rc 142,
You really thinnk that most people on this board are all “pat on the back posters”? There are many different points of view here, you have me, the doom and gloom world resource peak / overpopulation guy. you have clott the armed insurrectionist semi-honest realtor, RE101 the coolaid drinking NAR spokesman, etc. Just because people can discuss different points of view in an amicable manner does not mean we are busy patting each other on the back. One reason i like the this board is the different opinions that are here on a regular basis. including John’s
#133 bi: I agree with you for once. I think you will definitely see a Clinton/Obama ticket or the other way around.
As far as the debates, Clinton/Obama was far more interesting or entertaining than McCain/Romney, which was a snore fest.
Sadly I believe that McCain will be the Rebublican nominee;the Rebublican party is destroyed (thank you Mr. Bush).
I never thought I would say it, but if the choice becomes Hillary or McCain, I may just have to sit this election out.
From MarketWatch:
Beazer quitting mortgage-origination business
Beazer Homes USA Inc. before Friday’s opening bell said it is shuttering its troubled mortgage-origination unit and exiting several underperforming markets as it tries to endure the housing downturn.
The Atlanta home builder said it would stop writing mortgages through a unit, cease building homes in five markets, and enter marketing partnerships with Countrywide Financial Corp. and St. Joe Co.
Beazer will discontinue mortgage-origination services through Beazer Mortgage Corp. And it will end its relationship with Homebuilders Financial Network LLC. Instead, it will market Countrywide, the Calabasas, Calif., mortgage company, to buyers of Beazer homes as the preferred mortgage provider. Beazer will take charges, which it can’t yet calculate, as it ends the Beazer Mortgage operation.
After reviewing its markets to determine where best to put its resources, Beazer said the company will exit home-building operations in Charlotte, N.C., Cincinnati/Dayton and Columbus, Ohio, Columbia, S.C., and Lexington, Ky.
3b151 I agree to a point,lesser of 2 evils for me have to go with McCain anything is better than the other two.
I hope Bob Menendez runs for president. I am definately voting for him because he is for the NJEA!
#150 kettle: Just because people can discuss different points of view in an amicable manner…
That is the problem today in our society,there is no room for different points of view, and being amicable is now un-American.
You are either left or right, against me or with me. There is no middle ground, or romm for what I would call a political party or movement called the Common Sense party.
It is extremely difficult trying to be a centrist if you will in today’s environment. That requires too much thought and effort,and you will be labeled wishy/washy, and or un-patriotic.
People have to be kept dumb and sedated whether they be on the so called left or so called right.
Welcome to America of the 21st century, please levae your common sense at the door.
#143 40K a year income????
40K is not the income but private cash. If anyone were making 40K a year I would suggest they get married to someone making as much to get ahead otherwise look at purchasing a condo and renting out the rooms because 40K isnt enough to live on much less to consider retirement on?
At 40K salary one should defiantly take advantage of community college and get some sort of an education to raise their income potential. I wouldn’t worry about the job so much as there should be plenty of jobs someone making 40k could do that aren’t college educated positions. Just find one that allows for getting an education on the side.
i got a quote from a mortgage broker today: 15 yr fix 4 7/8%; 30 yr fix 5.5%. i locked in 15 yr fix. is it the norm in this market?
Thanks Rich in NNJ
Also can you tell if MLS 2804280 and MLS 2458357 are owned by the same person? Both new construction – 1 house in the middle and look very similar and use same realtor.
Thanks again.
#154 tbw: Just FYI. The River Edge BOE plans to pull out all the stops with the towns Seniors this year to get them to vote yes for the school budget in April.
Typical clueleesness on their part as many non-Seniors with kids inn the school voted no last year.
My wife has her masters degree (Rutgers) and she started at her job making $39,000 a year. True, she is much higher than that now, but you have to start somewhere to do your time and get your experience.
rc (142)-
“Pat on the back posters”?
Who the hell are you?
Piss off.
Sadly, RC comes out of the woodwork to put us all down for being so nice to each other. I bet his mother is a real winner!
Is that better RC?
stu (162)-
Straight to “yo mama”. Love it.
My wife and I both work non profit. Together we make a combined $85k/yr. We live below our means take 2 vacations a year, save our money, have a nice DP for a house..so yes even in NJ it can be done.
NEW YORK – Jewish doctors, lawyers and business executives too busy for the formal study of their faith can now order in religious lessons, thanks to an organization whose rabbis make office calls.
Chaplains making house calls might be a good idea for Congress.
#140 – Grim – Thanks for that link. I don’t think I can understate how accurate that article was.
We spent a good bit of time on Mon. changing passwords for every system we manage after it was ordered by Paris.
SocGen is pretty security minded compared to many of the others I’ve been at….
RE: Palm/superkey
Boy that would be nice – our agent probably spent an average of 10 minutes getting the key out of those doorknob boxes, then putting it back…
Etiquette question – we’re moving to Milwaukee in a month (renting a great corner apt downtown with view of the lake and southern windows) but over the past year our RE agent here showed us probably 12 homes. She wans’nt what I’d call ‘great'(could have handled the two offers we made better, really never seemed to really ‘get’ what we were looking for), but did take quite a bit of time showing props, with no payout. What’s appropriate to send her as a thank-you? 100 dollar gift certificate to a nice restaurant? 200 gift certificate towards a flight somewhere? More? Opinions?
Thanks
Kurt
3b: I heard that the last town meeting they determined that the building dept has been to relaxed and now it will be harder to build the mcmansions. 5 years too late though
kelly (158)-
2804280 isn’t a GSMLS ID number.
Kurt (167)-
Find out what her local community college is, and send her a catalogue. She’s in a performance business, and it sounds like she didn’t perform. You’re not obligated to reward it. Whether this lady knows it or not, her value of her time is 0. Better she learn how to do something else.
Re renting
I think many people should rent right now unless they are buying something that they could live happily in for the rest of your life. But isn’t that the way it should be anyway?
We bought too small the first time around in 2001 (a smallish townhouse), especially knowing we wanted kids, but we couldn’t afford a single family back then. It worked out for us by luck, but I wouldn’t recommend that to anyone now. I would tell people, especially young people, don’t buy any home, condo, townhouse, whatever, that you don’t think you could live in forever. Rent.
Re Clinton/Obama
That did seem to be a relative lovefest. I think a Clinton/Obama ticket would rock. McCain wouldn’t know what hit him. As far as campaigning, just show this picture over and over and over again
http://blog.reidreport.com/uploaded_images/mccain_bush-hug-711518.jpg
#171
Ann,
How true! We bought thinking we would sell in 5 years and move up. With a lay-off and the market taking off, that became impossible. We’re now in our 12th year in the house and probably here for many more years. At the time we bought, it was a two family and we have taken it back to a one family. That has saved us – otherwise, we’d be in a very small two bedroom apt with two big kids.
Don’t pass on to Bergabe;
“China’s latest export is inflation. After falling for years, prices of Chinese goods sold in the United States have risen for the last eight months.”
“Soaring energy and raw material costs, a falling dollar and new business rules here are forcing Chinese factories to increase the prices of their exports, according to analysts and Western companies doing business here.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/01/business/worldbusiness/01inflate.html?_r=3&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
“Confused In NJ Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 9:09 am
Bush may actually have a point on people needing Financial Education.”
I dislike Bush rather intensely, and yes, he does have a point. Basic personal finance, basic economics and basic business vocabulary and concepts should be mandatory courses beginning at least in middle school.
We might wind up with better qualified Presidents going forward…
167 Kurt
I would say a gift certificate would be a nice gesture. I’d say as much as you want to spend. It’s kind of part of business that you don’t make all the sales, and that’s her risk in showing you around, but showing that you appreciated her is nice too.
“Save the Date!
We’ll be meeting up on Saturday, February 9th in Morristown NJ.
6pm Sharp!”
Mrs. patient and I will be late; likely won’t arrive until 6:30-6:45, so all you lightweights drink slooowwwly….
Kelly (158)
I could not find NJMLS 2458357
To make sure we’re talking about the same properties, are they located in Wayne?
[56] Confused In NJ Says:
(snip) Some younger people I know have bought over priced houses which they can keep the payments current on, but the balances are so high that it morgages their futures.
“Mortgage Poor”
RE: SocGen…did you see the WSJ article? It reads like fiction. It is a primer why the frogs are a bunch of irrelevant snobby morons that are doomed to mediocrity. All the while, they stand around and do nothing, but judge others with a cynical sneer.
Tosh: I guess you work for SocGen, my apologies, but it is just prima facie evidence that they are a second class sack of empty suits.
WSJ
In a French Twist, Infamous Trader Gets Hero Treatment Bank Finds It Hard to Say Au Revoir to Mr. Kerviel; ‘Che Guevara of Finance’
By ANDREW HIGGINS
February 1, 2008; Page A1
PARIS — Société Générale says wayward trader Jérôme Kerviel lost the bank $7.2 billion. But that was last week. He’s now on his way to cult celebrity — and he still hasn’t lost his job.
Société Générale has stopped paying Mr. Kerviel and told him not to come to the office, but it hasn’t managed to formally fire him. French law stipulates that to do that, the bank must first call him in for a sit-down meeting and explain its dissatisfaction. He has the right to bring along a trade-union official, a lawyer or anyone else he’d like.
That will be complicated: A pair of Paris judges this week released Mr. Kerviel from custody but forbade him to have contact with the bank. “This is a very peculiar case,” says Emmanuel Dockès, a law professor at l’Université Lyon 2, Mr. Kerviel’s alma mater in central France.
Reviled by Société Générale as a malevolent fraudster and “mutating virus,” Mr. Kerviel, 31 years old, is now being hailed by a growing band of fans as “Robin Hood,” “the Che Guevara of Finance” and even a genius worthy of the Nobel Prize in economics.
“Let’s be honest: No one likes banks…and people like the rich to get cheated,” says Christophe Rocancourt, a celebrated French con man who swindled wealthy Americans in the 1990s by masquerading as a French member of the Rockefeller family, a film producer and various other people.
[edit]
The French Communist Party, meanwhile, has compared Mr. Kerviel with Alfred Dreyfus, a Jewish French army officer whose persecution by the military hierarchy at the end of the 19th century has become a byword for gross injustice.
Société Générale, which sees Mr. Kerviel in a rather different light, has said it definitely wants to fire him and is trying to find a legal way to do it.
Firing has never been easy in France, where on-the-spot dismissals à l’américaine are viewed as brutal and very un-French. “This is not like America or England. We have rules that protect employees, no matter what they do wrong,” says Stéphane Boudin, a Paris lawyer specializing in labor disputes.
Rapid Dismissals
Even Nicolas Sarkozy, who became president vowing to shake up France, hasn’t proposed that bosses be allowed to can workers at will. Nor do French executives show much enthusiasm for rapid dismissals. None of Société Générale’s senior executives have yet been tossed overboard, despite their having been at the helm when the bank smashed into the rocks of the biggest trading loss ever.
France is one of the few places that haven’t done a local version of Donald Trump’s hit U.S. television series, “The Apprentice.” The show’s catch phrase — “You’re fired” — has been translated into Russian, Chinese, Arabic, German, Norwegian, Turkish and several other languages, but not French.
Last week, when Société Générale disclosed its trading debacle, getting rid of Mr. Kerviel seemed a forgone conclusion.
Daniel Bouton, the bank’s chairman and CEO, issued an English-language statement, announcing that the “individual in question has been dismissed.” But that turned out to be a translation error. The French original said that he had been “mis à pied,” which translates literally as “put on foot,” but basically means to be suspended or asked to go home.
“They can’t just tell him to take his bags and get lost,” says Michel Origier, a trade-union representative at the French bank where Mr. Kerviel worked — and, technically at least, still works.
[edit]
Management Missteps
But the tide is now turning as questions mount about the bank management’s own missteps and a change in Mr. Kerviel’s public image from recklessly greedy master-of-the-universe to luckless little guy struggling to get ahead. Unlike Société Générale’s executives, mostly upper-crust graduates of elite colleges, Mr. Kerviel grew up in a small provincial town in a family of modest means. Lacking the academic credentials and connections of the bank’s highfliers, he struggled to get his feet on the lowest rung of the trading ladder.
A Web site set up to chart the saga, jeromekerviel.com, has started polling visitors about whether the trader is to blame: According to one of the site’s founders, 65% say no. Facebook, the social-networking site, now has dozens of pages devoted to various Jérôme Kerviel support groups, including one that wants to “fight for Jérôme Kerviel’s reintegration in Société Générale.”
[edit]
grim unmod
I vote for a Chavez/Evita Peron ticket. Some people will complain that she’s dead, but I still think she’d be livlier then Dick Cheny, and far better then any of the other candidates. And Chavez will provide needed entertainment. Think of the fun when he nationalizes Exxon, US Steel, Utilities, etc.
#168 tbw: Yes that is true. However, the market is taking care of the Mcmansion issue now. lots of them rotting on the market for months, and believe it or not, still more in various stages of constuction, yet to come on the market.
Absolutley frightening to me, that in the recent past some people were paying 800k to 1,000,000 for a house in River Edge.
Do not get me wrong, I like the town, been there a long time. But it never was,and never will be a 1,000,000 town. In fact I think its better days are behind it.
#172 Willow: I know a few who purchased in the past few years, who were what I call moving out before they moved in; they are no sorry.
Ann Your a smart person why resort to Bush bashing if you are a tax & spend liberal who wants higher taxes,drvers lic. for all,open borders,& redistribution of wealth.
Its working so well in NJ after all.
Not that McCain is much better than the 2 left wing loonies.I would like a right wing loony Ron Paul, but as you know if wishes were fishes…….
re: 161 Clotpoll
Or the other extreme; god-forbid; incurs the wrath of this posturing pseudo-intellect that does more underhanded self-promoting than the NAR.
My intention was to point out that an individualist attitude and posts not in the mainstream on “this board, are usually met with billigerence.
Why can’t you maintain some of the intergrity of this board and just be open-minded to everyone’s opinion, and not a bully.
Ann’s a tax and spend liberal, which distinguishes her from all the tax and spend conservatives?
RC says:
“Why can’t you maintain some of the intergrity of this board and just be open-minded to everyone’s opinion, and not a bully.”
I’ve never heard of a bully who was told he was way too nice to everybody.
BTW, what is intergrity? :P
rc,
Ironic, I found John’s posts to be belligerent and his opinion to be very closed minded.
Hey RC,
Yo momma!
#185 rc Or the other extreme; god-forbid; incurs the wrath of this posturing pseudo-intellect that does more underhanded self-promoting than the NAR.
A little harsh,and dare i say bullying? And what is your opinion. Its a great time to buy?, There is no bubble? It’s the media’s fault? If sites like this did not exist and people like us did not say bad things about real estate, all would be well?
“Why can’t you maintain some of the intergrity of this board and just be open-minded to everyone’s opinion, and not a bully.”
Meh – we’re all bullies on this board (including me)….
As to your concern about “intergrity”, your use of the word rings hollow when you lead with “excuses, apologies or a$$ kissing that so often accompanies most “pat on the back” posters on this site”.
Bully? Not you – you’re a paragon of urbane politesse!
And FWIW, I don’t think there’s anyone in here who doesn’t recognize that John makes a lot of valuable comments on this board. Did you completely fail to understand the “John1 and John2” reference?
Ann’s a tax and spend liberal, which distinguishes her from all the tax and spend conservatives?
A tax and spend liberal is someone whose opinion you disagree with. It is hard to properly portray that invective tone when you type.
People have defended goubmint workers’ pensions on this board by noting that they give up present day income.
“State and local government workers are enjoying major gains in compensation, pushing the value of their average wages and benefits far ahead of private workers, a USA TODAY analysis of federal data shows.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-02-01-civil-servants_N.htm
Come on people.
Liberals Tax and Spend
Conservatives Borrow and Spend
In the end, which costs you more?
NJP 186 Not to happy with them either,there
are few true conservatives left in gov if any.But Bush is a lame duck its over let it go he isn’t running whats done is done turn the page already.
State and local government workers now earn an average of $39.50 per hour in total compensation, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Private workers earn an average of $26.09 an hour.
Makes sense if you consider most real productive private jobs were moved offshore.
“Bully? Not you — you’re a paragon of urbane politesse!”
How did you know??
Stu, you got me in intergrity (sic) (integrity) fast fingers…
Of course I got the John 1 and John 2 reference, who didn’t?
It’s just that to attack him for simply stating his opinion about Grim’s email idea seemed petty.
Hey, I am the first to admit that most of John’s comments besides being racist, are extremely sexist. I am a woman! But, they are hysterical none the less.
Since it’s inception, posters have predicted what has come to pass. The best level you’ve reached on this blog is the helpful information provided.
Even those crazy enough to have their heads buried in the sand in this market (Duck, Pre, Bi) should have their opinions encouraged as it gives great counter.
“more underhanded self-promoting than the NAR”
There’s the phrase that ruined the willing suspension of disbelief
#57 Adding to your list.
Never trust a home inspector or finance company recommended by your real estate agent either.
Kurt,
After my mother passed away, I used DelightfulDeliveries.com to send gourmet gift baskets to her nurses, the personal attendant, etc., with “thank you” notes.
You can get a really nice gift basket for about $100.
OK, so I did hear that NAR ad correctly!
How could anyone – with a straight face – maintain that houses double in value every 10 years?
196 rc
“It’s just that to attack him for simply stating his opinion about Grim’s email idea seemed petty.”
Really? Let’s review what John actually said:
“Why don’t you got out to the corner and sell children crack cocaine. It is morally irresponsible to sell people houses. Why don’t you just get a gun and rob the people of 100K of their life savings”
That was just plain rude. Petty, even, perhaps.
Perfectly reasonable for people to call him out.
I would have done so but it became unnecessary.
I generally think his posts are informative and often hysterical, but sometimes the bigotedness is a bit overwhelming. This isn’t any of those cases, however.
“State and local government workers now earn an average of $39.50 per hour in total compensation, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Private workers earn an average of $26.09 an hour.”
This is comparing apples and oranges. Do you really think we’ll get good service if we pay government workers what we pay people who pick apples and oranges?
Posted on the Mortgage-Implode-O-Meter, from Bloomberg:
Bush Subprime Plan Undermined, States Shun Borrowers (Update1)
By Michael McDonald
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — President George W. Bush’s proposal to help 1 million subprime borrowers avoid foreclosure with tax- exempt bonds has an obstacle: states don’t want the risk any more than private lenders do.
The state housing agencies that are already offering mortgage refinancing options are turning away so many applicants that they’ve had no need to raise funds. Since New York said it would commit $100 million in July, three of the 500 loans envisioned have been made. Massachusetts extended four loans under a $250 million program started in August, and Ohio made just 36 of the thousands anticipated by Governor Ted Strickland.
The reluctance to lend threatens to undermine a pivotal part of the president’s plan for alleviating the worst housing slump in 26 years. More than 50 percent of subprime borrowers are being rejected by state programs because their homes have lost too much value or they’ve accumulated excessive debt, estimates Geoffrey Cooper, emerging markets director at a unit of MGIC Investment Co., the country’s biggest mortgage insurer.
“These things are basically public relations gimmicks,” said Bruce Marks, chief executive officer of Neighborhood Assistance Corp. of America. The Boston-based nonprofit organization negotiated an agreement with Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. home lender, in October to modify rates and terms on $16 billion of subprime mortgages to prevent foreclosures.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=al4wLYqTFa10&refer=home
grim, #203 is in moderation
#200.
According to the Shiller Index, from 1890 – 2004, the inflation adjusted housing price increase is 0.4%.
#202 You left out the benefits a state worker gets over his private counter parts.
Victorian,
0.4% real makes sense to me for a national figure. Maybe a little bit low but not by much.
Probably reflects 1-2% real in places like New York City and San Francisco and -1% real in places like Buffalo, Detroit and Houston.
205 mitch
No I didn’t – benefits are picked up in the concept of “total compensation”
Confused (181)-
And Chavez’ habit of chewing coca leaves should delight the DEA.
NJP 202 Private sector getting 26 an hour are sure not picking fruit.Oh by the way you think we are getting good services now.
IT is no longer possible for private sector to support the gov sectors ever increaseing
cost we don’t make enough.They make more than the people who they work for & have better bennies & retirement.This is not a sustainable situation.
“NJP 186 Not to happy with them either,there
are few true conservatives left in gov if any.But Bush is a lame duck its over let it go he isn’t running whats done is done turn the page already.”
I agree. I’d like to find a President that can get the federal budget into surplus. Now if only I could think of the name of a President who has presided over a budget surplus….
“NJP 202 Private sector getting 26 an hour are sure not picking fruit.”
That number includes the fruit-pickers. Gotta balance out the compensation that all the CEOs are earning, dontcha know.
Answer: 18 – 1
12 Things I Learned By 42 That I Wish I Knew At 22
http://www.thewisdomjournal.com/Blog/12-things-i-learned-by-42-that-i-wish-i-knew-at-22/
My, how time flies. Seems just like yesterday that I was a 12 year old kid, going for long bike rides in Sherwood Forrest, the subdivision just around the corner from where I lived. Playing with William, Edward, and my little brother, climbing in the tree house, looking forward to Brent coming over to visit. Those were all good times and my only dread was finding out that we were having liver for supper.
By the time I was 22, I knew who I wanted to marry, was in the process of quitting college, going into debt, and thought that I would be a millionaire by the time I was 30 because I was so smart. Hey, it might take me until 35, but that was the top end. In reality, I was quite ignorant.
If I could go back in time, here are a few items I would tell my 22 year old self.
1. Stay in school. Don’t quit. Sure you’re bored now, but wait until you’re in a dead end job that you can’t stand but you’re afraid to lose. Getting finished with your degree will open up many more opportunities than you realize. I always wanted to go to law school, but without that sheepskin, I didn’t have a chance of even being considered. The lesson learned here is finish what you start by throwing yourself into it fully. Treat your college experience as if it were a job. Arrive on time, do your homework, study, and treat your learning process as if you were at a real job.
2. Money doesn’t spoil, it keeps. Start investing early. How much stuff do you have to show for the money you made in high school and college? If I had invested half of what I made during those years in a plain old, broad based mutual fund, I would have well over $192,000 with no other investments made since then. I’m still kicking myself. Invest early.
3. Don’t buy the first house you look at. Buy the cheapest house in the nicest neighborhood. No, I didn’t actually do this, but it was close. We were so excited to be approved for a loan, having just come out of Consumer Credit Counseling Services that we jumped at the first house we found that met our minimum requirements. I still love that house today, but I wish we had gotten a better inspection, had looked into building, or had found a way to buy a house that was closer to work and school. The lesson learned, don’t be desperate with a large purchase.
4. Establish the habit of living within a budget. Could anything be more important to insure you are living below your means? I tried on several occasions but I was never as faithful to this ideal as I should have been. Today, I make a salary high enough that a budget is a “yeah, we really ought to do that” kind of thing. My goal is to get that done. If I could do it over I would get myself in this habit at the earliest possible age. The lesson learned: budgeting is a freeing process, not a limiting one. If I had lived on a budget, I could have circumvented many painful events.
5. Learn how to negotiate a better deal on everything. Having read several books on negotiation just a little too late, I’ve recognized how I was duped by many people, mostly used car sales people. I wrote a review on Secrets of Power Negotiating that you can read here. Learning these skills would have saved me thousands. The lesson learned: prepare by educating yourself and always be willing to walk away.
6. Keep your medical insurance in force at all times. Several years ago, I quit one job and took another that didn’t offer medical insurance until you had been there for 90 days. You guessed it, my wife had to have emergency surgery at 89 days. True story. 89 days. Do you think the insurance company cared? I’ll let you guess. Thankfully, we were at St. Vincent’s Hospital and they had mercy on us. The business manager told me (after looking over my financial situation) that someone paid our bill. I still get choked up thinking about it all these years later. It took us years to pay off the doctor and anesthesia bills, though. If I had just kept my coverage in effect for a little while longer. The obvious lesson: keep that insurance in effect. It is cheaper than the medical bills.
7. It’s quality of time at work, but quantity of time at home that matters. Your boss really doesn’t care whether you have a family or not. Trust me. Unless you work for family members who DO understand that you need to pick the kids up early, or that you DO need to spend some time with your spouse, you are just a replaceable cog in the machine. When people are trying to grow a business, your need for personal time is secondary, so is the quality of your marital and family relationships. Just remember that when you’re old, sitting in a chair at the nursing home with a blanket on your lap and eating mush, you won’t regret that you didn’t get to spend more time at the office. The lesson learned: family will be there after the job is long gone. Value and treasure them.
8. Don’t listen to those who think there is a shortcut to wealth. NEW FLASH: there is no shortcut. Might as well get that out of your 22 year old head right now. Wealth is created when you provide something interesting, unique and valuable to people who demand it. Until then, you will be trading hours for dollars and you’ll always think you’re underpaid. “Find a need and fill it” is the old mantra and it is still quoted because it’s true. In today’s world it should read “Create a need that only you can fill.” Then you’ll be on your way to wealth. The lesson learned: figure out where there are unmet needs and figure out a way to fill those needs.
8a. Stay far, far away from any Multi Level Marketing “business” that requires you to sponsor new distributors. They are all scams. You are not “CEO of your own distribution network”–you are a commission-based salesperson relying on the liquidation of your social capital (i.e. alienating your friends and family) to make any money at all…and 99.5% of people in MLM’s lose money, as has been shown again and again in numerous studies. The only profit you can ever make is by turning what would be called “customers” into “distributors” and then taking the money from the 99.995% that lose money in the organization and giving it to the 0.005% at the top (the people who started the whole “business” in the first place). Stay away!
9. Make sure your spouse’s values line up with your own. This one step can single handedly determine your level of happiness more than just about any other. Scary isn’t it? If everything seems so right, yet he or she thinks credit should be used at will (and you don’t) or thinks that home schooled kids are strange (and you want your children to be home schooled), you are setting yourself up for heartbreak. Work these things out before you say “I do.” They say love is grand . . . and divorce is 50 grand. The lesson learned: talk to your spouse or potential spouse about what is important to you and the values you think should be taught to your children, even if you don’t plan on having children.
10. Learn how to network. Learn to stay in touch with old friends from high school and college. Learn the skill of asking for help without seeming to be asking for help. Watch how others network. Remember it’s not what you know, it’s not even who you know, it’s how you USE what you know and who you know. One step further, it’s not who you know, it’s who knows YOU. Get in the practice of networking without expecting anything in return. Make sure you don’t come across as a brown nosing leech who is always trying to get an angle, but stay in touch with people. You never know who you may be able to help. The lesson learned: stay in touch and make sure you come across as helpful rather than helpless.
11. Never accept a job just because the pay is higher. Life is more than money. There’s a reason they’re offering you more. Yes it may be that you’re the most qualified. It may be that you have the most experience and the most education. It may be that no one can stand to work for that particular department head and a high salary is the only way to fill the position. Always ask where the person who last held the position is working now. Ask to speak with them, but always do it away from the office. People will give you more information outside of the office than inside. Inside the office, they’re committing treason, outside, hey – they’re just chatting with a friend. The lesson learned: Get the full scoop before jumping out of a frying pan into the fire.
12. Trust, but verify. You can’t believe everything you hear, read, or were taught as a kid. You should always check references, ask probing questions, search out answers, and find ways to learn more about what you’re being told. This is a catch all but it is important. The world is full of schemers who are just waiting to take you for a ride. Don’t become cynical, but verify everything you can. The lesson learned: make sure you know who it is you’re dealing with and what their motives may be.
Learn who you are and what motivates you. Learn what motivates your spouse and children. Learn what motivates your friends. Learn what motivates your co-workers, your boss, and your boss’s boss. Never stop learning, never stop growing. By the time you reach 42, kid, you’ll be a millionaire!
Re 167 some stinky cheese and mittens.
Kurt,
I got one (1) Thank you card from a couple I showed 2 homes to. They decided against moving because they were older and thought it too much trouble. There was nothing in the card but I was very happy with the acknowledgement. The home they called me on, I sold to another couple who walked by as I was waiting for them, had I not been there I would not have had that sale. When I closed that sale I also brought them a gift. I also just learned from the newspaper that the wife passed away. I sent a sympathy card. It was 2003 that they gave me the card, I still have it, and of course remembered them.
To sum it up, just a card works.
KL
Rich in NNJ
Thanks – yes both in Wayne.
This is another number for the same property 2744239.
Thanks for checking it out for me!
Mitchell:
You just published my personal credo to the T.
I wonder where my parents got a copy of this before they birthed me and my 6 siblings?
My guess is that it had something to do with their parents who were immigrants raised in the great depression.
My goal is to retire by my mid 40’s.
nice, KL.
212 gary – what was the question?
rc (185)-
“Why can’t you maintain some of the intergrity of this board and just be open-minded to everyone’s opinion, and not a bully.”
Idiot, YOU started the finger-pointing and name-calling with your gratuitous “back slapping” post.
And, no, I’m not terribly open to opinions that are not backed by fact or reason. Sorry.
njpatient [218],
You tell me. :)
208. Clot
I think the DEA & Chavez are like NJ’s slogan, “Perfect Together”. Actually considering drugs are prolific in all 50 states, shouldn’t matter. And if Spitzer tries to fine Chavez, he’ll Federally prempt the NY law.
regarding the political talk of liberal / conservative spending….
The first thing people have to get past is the labels ( liberal/conservative). You have to realize that both parties in the US are really just a false dichotomy, both parties are just one organization with the goal of amassing as much power and control as possible.
By keeping the general population fighting over the liberal/conservative labels they prevent people from seeing the real issues at hand. There are legitimate and important debated that need to occur on many aspects of life in the US from the current security theater to health care to fiscal matters. However the important and productive debates will not occur until people drop the labels and enter into logical debates free of rhetoric and open to new points of view.
From MarketWatch:
Mass. files fraud charges against Merrill Lynch
The Massachusetts Secretary of State is filing fraud and misrepresentation charges against Merrill Lynch & Co. related to the securities it sold in the state. According to the Massachusetts’ complaint, Merrill sold the securities, called collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), to Springfield, Mass. for $13.9 million. Their value since has fallen to $1.2 million. Earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that Merrill had bought back the securities from the city.
#218 Sweet I hope you do and have more to show for it than you expect.
I’m all for groups brainstorming ideas to better themselves and their financial positions.
My opinions are opinions, look I am not runnning for office and don’t have to flip flop. Plenty of time I am right, sometimes I am wrong and quite often I am right and wrong at same time. The housing market and stock are often irrational.Look at banks, banks reported horrific 2007 numbers and yet they are way up in the last few weeks. Makes no sense.
Must people just don’t get it. For instance take work, there are the same amount of 25 year olds as there are 45 year olds in the population. Yet a 25 year old can sit and see there is only one 45 year old in the department and he is the head. He played the game, was political, got his MBA, spoke at a few conferences and did some industry networking. The fact of the matter is even though population wise there are the same amount of 25 year olds as 45 year olds must firms on wall street only have one 45 year old job per department. Yet year after year I see the 25 year olds sit back with their college degree and do nothing until they are near 40 and get let go. Housing, employment etc., the awful fact is usually there is only one right way to do it, period. Want a pony tail and unshined shoes and to skip the company party and be cool in your 20’s at work. Yea see how that works out. Mistakes you make last a lifetime, a blue collar couple putting 5% down on a beat up split in 2006 put an anchor around his neck. Sometimes it is what it is, some of my best bosses beat the crap out of me and I hated them and now looking back I love them.
Case in point next month I am a key note speaker at a conference in Europe, all expenses paid. Six years ago my big four audit partner signed me up to give a one hour speech at a conference in front of 200 people and told me I am sure I will do a good job and he understands that some losers who are not partner material may say no but he is sure I will do a good job. I stayed up late writing that damm thing and rehearsed and rehearsed and almost could not sleep for three weeks leading up to it, I even took public speaking books out of the library and I did a so so job on my first time out, well I got put back on the horse again and again by that SOB and you know what piece of cake now. Life is tough kids, no matter what your career is you need to give it your all and always do the things you hate to do and are the hardest to do as that is where the money is and that what will give you great satisfaction once you master how to do something really hard.
Amen Kettle1
“Earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that Merrill had bought back the securities from the city.”
odd – I had thought that this was the case; not so, if MA is suing?
another good one on Realty Check
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22950993
From Reuters:
Fitch may cut $139 bln of U.S. subprime RMBS
Fitch Ratings said on Friday it may cut $139 billion worth of U.S. subprime mortgage securities amid increased performance deterioration over recent months and after adjusting its subprime RMBS loss projections higher.
The rating agency attributed the deterioration to accelerating home price declines which are in part due to the dramatic contraction in the mortgage origination and securitization markets.
#223 kettle: Exactly. But it will never happen, until after there is an armed insurrection.
(I do have an old Thopmson sub-Machine gun in my parents attic).
From HouseHunter’s post:
There is a fundamental and deplorable breakdown in financial responsibility in America today. I’ve been saying it for a long time now; I’m sick and tired of everyone running to bail out borrowers who simply made irresponsible financial decisions.
Yes, there was predatory lending, and yes, there was some fraud (and I don’t mean those cases). But the fundamental reason for today’s credit and housing crisis is greed, plain and simple, and a reprehensible lack of financial responsibility. People saw free and easy money, and they took it. They took it along with the promise of continued economic expansion, and anyone who’s lived for more than a few decades knows that nobody can promise that.
In today’s uncertain world, we should be more prudent than ever in betting on the economic future of our country, and if we do choose to bet, and we lose, then we need to take responsibility for ourselves.
NJ RE market is really that bad? i just closed my trade-up: i bought at 2% off LP (9% off OLP) and sold at 3% off LP/OLP (1% off 2005 comp). The deals were done at the end of last year. I am doing refi, which would bring down my rate by almost 1%. I am wondering how the market will get worse.
To Jill, #69: Proceed with caution on Springfield. Springfield had a disproportionate number of senior citizens well past the 2000 census. This has affected town priorities (aqlthough it didn’t keep taxes low) and will result in a disproportionate turn-over of homes sometime soon. As a result, the community is changing. Your friend’s son should look carefully and consider whether he will be happy with what is there now and with what will be there soon.
3b
regarding insurrection.
I have heard people say that it could never happen in the US because our military is too strong, with the most advanced tanks and jets, etc in the world. The funny think is, that each of those can be relatively easily disabled if you know anything about them. The gorilla’s in iraq started to get very good at disabling the M1 abrams tanks.
It is illegal in warfare to knowingly bury someone alive. But the iraqi gorillas were hiding in the drainage ditches along the roads and when a tank would pass would fire an RPG into he back of the tank and disable it if the hit the right area.
The US response was to mount a bulldozer blade to the leading tank in the column and plow in the ditches as they drove down the road. technically this is not illegal, because the tank drives have no way of knowing if there is anyone in the ditches as the get filled in…….
A discussion of liberal and conservative philosophy is always appropriate. Republicans and democrats are at opposite ends of the political spectrum.
The label of liberal is well deserved in many instances and discussions need to be focused on those of this persuasion so people know what the liberal agenda is and the threat that agenda presents to our nation. This nation is not prepared to go backwards this November with either Oprah’s lapdog, Obama or Bill Clinton’s lapdog, Hilliary. Both of these people represent the liberal agenda that the people have wisely rejected time and time again.
kettle1 Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 1:58 pm
regarding the political talk of liberal / conservative spending….
The first thing people have to get past is the labels ( liberal/conservative). You have to realize that both parties in the US are really just a false dichotomy, both parties are just one organization with the goal of amassing as much power and control as possible.
By keeping the general population fighting over the liberal/conservative labels they prevent people from seeing the real issues at hand. There are legitimate and important debated that need to occur on many aspects of life in the US from the current security theater to health care to fiscal matters. However the important and productive debates will not occur until people drop the labels and enter into logical debates free of rhetoric and open to new points of view.
In case anyone needed a clear example regarding my post about politics, may i suggest you read post # 236
RE101,
While i disagree with the majority of your comments i will not say that they are all wrong. Unless and until you are willing to have a discussion without resorting to rhetoric and name calling ( which i have done myself on occasion), and are willing to approach a debate as a learning experience where you trade ideas with the opposite party and not as a chance to talk “at” someone or shout someone down; then it is pointless to talk at all.
reinvestor101 Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Both of these people represent the liberal agenda that the people have wisely rejected time and time again
re: I get the feeling you are dead-on. The further we move into 2008, and the more these people speak, the louder the collective “huh?” from the public. The only hope is that once the party nomiation is secured, we will actually hear some rational stuff out of these people. If McCain is on the other side, then it is possible that the left and right are going to be out in the cold.
To be clear….I’m looking for someone to dial-it-down-the-center….if any of these clowns start pandering on the trail after their respective convention, they can bite the big one…..
I was beginning to think ReTard had succumbed to MRSA bacteria.
Oh, well…
#233. I felt that was not very bad too. Especially in the towns easy to access NY train. When did you buy/sell?
My agent told me that, if you are picky buyer, it is good time to find good house with FengSui, dead end, etc at reasonable price.
Kelly (217),
Yes, both are owned by the same owner/builder
SLD $335,000 11/10/2005
2744239 (New constuction)
ACT $824,900 11/1/2007
PCH $749,000 1/26/2008
“banks reported horrific 2007 numbers and yet they are way up in the last few weeks. Makes no sense.”
John,
Maybe not to you? Markets are anticipatory. Could it be possible that the #’s were already baked in. Sell the rumor buy the news. In conjunction with this, have you viewed the short interest? Are you really a rookie?
ChiFi (238)-
After the conventions, the nominees will be tacking so hard to the center, we’ll think they’re cyborgs.
ledward (240)-
Feng Shui = walletectomy
clot:
Can this be your theme? Just replace “Secret” with “Real Estate”……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9toYaZZKHA
245 chi
lol – I knew what that was going to be even before I opened it…
Thanks clot. I think that house facing south is a good one because of more sunlight.
njpatient Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 2:37 pm
245 chi lol – I knew what that was going to be even before I opened it…
listen to the lyrics…..almost a perfect fit in meaning…may one line might sound goofy…
240#, ledward, i bought/sold in greater princeton area. the funny thing i saw was the more expensive homes in good locations moved quicker.
Housing stocks (XHB) up over 15% this week ,could we have seen the bottom ? …http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XHB&t=5d
Be careful Sykes.
Homebuilders already had a false bottom back in Novemeber where it climbed over 20%.
All disclaimers
“listen to the lyrics…..”
I did – it’s a riot.
Bi (234),
Congratulations!
But the NJ RE market doesn’t consist of 2 home sales. The data below reflects only one county but the sheer number (our lack there of) I’m sure is a better representation of the current state of the NJ RE market.
NJMLS January Data for Bergen County
Year SOLD UC
1995 465 573
1996 501 551
1997 548 681
1998 569 797
1999 630 614
2000 506 647
2001 583 548
2002 638 730
2003 743 673
2004 664 680
2005 669 684
2006 525 580
2007 551 682
2008 362 474
Avg price 11% below last List Price
#229 I’m glad someone finally came out to say that.
I guess thats why I made out. I looked at the two homes I had during the bubble and said to myself this house isn’t worth that and needs X amount of dollars in repairs/improvements. Kind of like having a beat up car but somehow the value is going up even when you add mileage to it every day. Then someone is anxious to buy your used crappy car and willing to pay twice and much as you paid for it. I sold the crap and twice and moved away from it. Urban sprawl of the problem eventually hit where I moved and I did it again but this time realizing this cant keep going on like this and settled into an area that didn’t experience this kind of chaos.
It always makes me laugh how conservatives started insisting that “liberal vs. conservative doesn’t matter” ever since the Republicans won the White House and Congress, and proceeded to drive this country into the ground. Now all of the sudden the conservatives have all become “centrists”–but they still hate Hillary and the “liberal agenda.” Good luck selling the conservative agenda of a permanent “War on Terror” and yet another round of tax cuts (with no commensurate reduction in spending on our biggest expenditure–the military–of course) come November . . .
#231-
(I do have an old Thopmson sub-Machine gun in my parents attic).
Is it me or does it seem like a lot of people are armed on this board?
250#, in short time frame, the market is always irrational. that is why traders such as bc bob still exist. XHB has been up over 50% since jan. 9 low. while it may give some indications that re market is in recovering, i would be more cautious on the stock (etf) itself.
disclaimer: i still have insignificant number of shares of XHB. all other disclaimers applys
BubbleYum 255 What planet are you on they are permanently at war with us till we are dead or they are.You can’t call off a war because it doesn’t go the way you wanted it to or isn’t part of your parties platform.
Great time to cut the military we are short 2-4 divisions thanks to Bill Clinton.Thats a great way to balence the budget,lets just raise the white flag & slit our throats for them.
184 mike
Hey, I’m just saying that that is all the Dems have to do to win this time around.
You have to admit, the guy is a political pariah.
184
And you got to admit, that picture is funny.
“that is why traders such as bc bob still exist.”
bi,
I’m not a trader.
Ann No sweat,I just can’t agree to what Clinton/Obama are selling because Bush f**ked up big time on spending & Rummy was an ass on the war.Out of the frying pan into the fire as far as I’m concerned.
Hey Mike in Waiting.
Answer me this question please.
Who are we in war with?
#258 mike: Not to start a war (no pun intended), but if you are refering to Iraq, we are never going to win as you say.
If by winning you mean the establisehemnt of a stable democratically elected government that will work together for the benefit of the the inhabitnats of Iraq.
It is just not going to happen. Yes the surge may be working in so far as civilian death tolls are down, but all we are doing is baby sitting, and nothing more.
Iraq is an artifical creation cobbled together by the British for their own selfish purposes (oil) after WWI, from the ruins of the defunct Ottoman empire.
After being shot and bombed by the natives, the British cut and ran in 1932, and that entity has been ruled by dictators since.
Its Sunnis, Shites, and Kurds not Iraqis.
And the Kurds are not even Arabs. Whether Bush likes it or not ultimatley this is what it will split into.
By the way it is illegal to fly the Iraq flag in
Iraqi Kurdistan.
The Kurds will look to establish an independent Kurdistan as was promised to them at the end of WWI. The Turks will be furious, but this is the pandora’s box that we the United States opened.
was it posted already?
Paul Volcker, Former Fed Chairman, Endorses Obama
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXl43P8d8T1s&refer=home
Ann 260 I guees you could say funny it really just makes me sick neither of those guys are on the same page as me as far as policy goes.This will not be a good election for me no matter who wins.
Maybe thats the whole point kettle is right they are 2 sides of the same coin,playing us all for fools.Dems Reb,lib cons all the same life time politicos.We get screwed.
#253 Rich Thank you as always for iilluminating our dear brotyer bi.
#262- what dont you exactly agree with?
1. Eliminating tax cuts for the top 1% of the country?
2. Universal Health care of all?
3. Responsible and humble foreign policy?
4. Not risk the lives of young men and women in an unneccessary and impractical war?
5. Deal with global warming and become energy independent?
All i see republicans talking about is – who is a better clone of Reagan and more tax cuts!
#262- what dont you exactly agree with?
1. Eliminating tax cuts for the top 1% of the country?
2. Universal Health care for all?
3. Responsible and humble foreign policy?
4. Not risk the lives of young men and women in an unneccessary and impractical war?
5. Deal with global warming and become energy independent?
All i see republicans talking about is – who is a better clone of Reagan and more tax cuts!
BC Bob Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 2:31 pm
“banks reported horrific 2007 numbers and yet they are way up in the last few weeks. Makes no sense.”
From Jan 23 to Feb 1st there was no good news from the banks, certain stocks like Wamu are up 100% in three weeks. Is Wamu 100% better than three weeks ago, either it was oversold or it has now run up too much. I bought investement grade COF, WM, BAC, JPM, CIT and NCC bonds and some BAC and SOV perferred stock in the last few weeks while there were sporting junk bonds yields.
I am back on the sidelines till 1Q 08 numbers come out and we get the next shock. There are teams of risk managment and valuation experts at the monolines and banks right now analyzing the positions and trying to value these illiquid numbers, there are monster write-offs coming. Attorney Cliet privledge RFPs are piling up while banks etc. are being pressuered to come up with true numbers, there are not enough people with that skill set to do all the work so lots of major FS firms with subprime and CDO are guessing what they got for a while. My friend a big 4 ex Fed Quant is working 7 days a week 12 hours a day and he can’t staff his projects for all the firms that need their help. So the PHDs have no clue what the company is worth yet joe six pack on etrade is buying away.
I worked at projects or was an employee at most of the big banks in NYC so I know that is a bag of poop out there, won’t bankrupt them but the common is going to get shocked sometime soon.
Short covering ain’t going to cause this much of a move in a dow component. I worked sec lending at citigroup at one point and I look at that, plus the bonds. The shorts the longs and the bonds on some of these banks are not aligning at all from a historically perspective so it is like reading tea leaves. Plus you are only looking at the displayed market the dark pools and black boxes may say different.
John,
Maybe not to you? Markets are anticipatory. Could it be possible that the #’s were already baked in. Sell the rumor buy the news. In conjunction with this, have you viewed the short interest? Are you really a rookie?
#256 bjlyn: It’s a family heirloom about 75 years old.
1. Eliminating tax cuts for the top 1% of the country?
TOP 1% pay a huge ton of taxes!
2. Universal Health care for all?
Great free health care to bums and crack heads
3. Responsible and humble foreign policy?
We are the USA we are not Humble.
4. Not risk the lives of young men and women in an unneccessary and impractical war?
It is a volunteer army and they are just doing their job, it is none of your business
5. Deal with global warming and become energy independent?
If the earth was warmer I could save on heating oil
All i see republicans talking about is – who is a better clone of Reagan and more tax cuts!They are all regan clones as they are all senile
Victorian,
I usually don’t get involved with discussions about politics but since you asked, I have a problem with #2 and #3.
#2 I simply don’t like putting health care in the hands of government. I can’t imagine what taxes will be like.
#3 What is “humble” foreign policy and why? What other country has a “humble” foreign policy?
Rich
keep in mind the budget balance achieved in clinton years were mainly due to more responsible republican congress led by newt gingrich. with newt gone, real conservative gop congress is gone. romney might lose to maccain on feb 5th but i feel he will become the new leader in the distressed republican party.
#272 John: Responsible and humble foreign policy?
We are the USA we are not Humble.
No we are not, and we are getting stupider every day.
Stu Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Hey Mike in Waiting.Answer me this question please.Who are we in war with?
stu: the sovereign debt rating of the USA
#273 Rich: The problem with universal health care is that no matter what Hillary might say, we will all be pushed into it, whether we want it or not.
regarding Irag.
what i am about to say is well documented and i can provide links if wanted….
Iraq was completely intentional and was predicated on oil. Dick cheney has chaired the Energy Policy Development Group which has now become the Energy Task Force. The short and sweet version is that both governments and major oil companies have realized we are either at or very nearly so, peak oil. There are 2 or 3 possible outcome scenarios of this and the one that cheney has decided is the most likely to be successful is what Shell ( the oil company) calls the “scramble” basically it a global competition to see who can gain military control of the greatest amount of strategic resources (i.e. oil). Iraq has the largest untapped oil reserves in the world, and who ever controls those in the near future will be in a very powerful position. hence we now control iraq are building 14 permanent bases.
This is not conjecture. Cheney has had some of the most knowledgeable people In regards to energy, in the world on his energy task force.
Not to spout more hot air, but iraq was/is purely about oil as cheney and friends have assessed the consequences of a decreasing oil supply and have taken steps according to the scenario they think will be the likely outcome. I know this sounds like ufo’s and bigfoot kind of stuff, but the info is out there and is backed up in peer reviewed scientific data. enjoy :)
bi,
XHB has been up over 50% since jan. 9 low. while it may give some indications that re market is in recovering
Please don’t tell me you’re saying that there is a correlation between improving homebuilder stock prices and the health of the RE market?
Many factors other than sales can raise and lower stock prices.
266 mike
I was actually rooting for Edwards (yes, I’m a Dem) and now that he’s out and we’re left with Clinton and Obama, all I can say is ugh. In fact, I’m not even going to vote in the primary on Tuesday anymore because I seriously can’t decide between them. And yes, they are ALL more alike than different.
Ann #171: I would add one thing to this: that you can live for a long time in a smaller house than you think. There is no law that says that every child needs his own private bathroom, no law that a house needs more bathrooms than bedrooms; no law that you need a 200-square-foot 2-story entry foyer with a “bridal staircase” and a chandelier.
The couple next door to me raised 2 kids in what appears to be a 1300 square foot ranch, and their kids grew up happy, successful, and well-adjusted. Today, people think they need 5000 square feet in which to raise children.
We have more space than we need in our 1500-square-foot POS Cape because we don’t have kids, but even so — until this year, people were asking when we were going to trade up to a bigger house. My response was “WTF???? We have a guest room that gets used maybe once a year, a home office, a 4th bedroom that my DH uses as a smoking lounge and music room so the whole house doesn’t smell like cigarettes, and a 13 x 24 basement family room that now that we have TV in the living room is just my yoga studio. What on earth would I need with more house?
About bank stocks rising recently – the yield curve has steepened recently, and banks borrow short and lend long, so this would help them. Another possible reason is that at least some financial institutions are holding jumbo mortagage-backed instruments that have been marked down bigtime, and a law may be passed allowing Fannie and Freddie to buy larger mortgages, and those now in these MBSs will pay down at par (because homeowners will refi at cheaper rates). These securities will go from being worth nothing to worth par.
Kettle 1:
You are correct.
But do you think Cheney and the Neocons were interested in protecting the USA’s future or just lining their own pockets with oil wealth?
Oh and the funny thing is, based on the whole peak oil scenario that cheney has apparently favored (very doomy and very gloomy) the US being in iraq is a very good idea for our long term energy security.
I think both bush and cheney should be in jail, just putting their actions in perspective
re: #278 I tend to agree. I don’t know what Bushs’s real thought were on Iraq, but for Cheney it was purely strategic for a post-peakoil world. I think Cheney’s nuts, but at least it’s a more sensible strategy than WMDs, or spreading democracy, or some other made up justification for the war.
If you buy into the “scramble” approach, Iraq is the place to be – both for the reserves and its proximity to the surrounding nations (also oil producers)
So maybe in 30 years when we’re MadMaxing it for a few drops of fuel people really will look back and say “That Cheney had a plan alright!” I think it wasn’t the best approach but it may turn out to give the U.S. really incredible leverage, albeit at a high cost.
Jill,
…my DH uses as a smoking lounge…
DH = ?
Deadbeat Husband?
#282 VMC (because homeowners will refi at cheaper rates). These securities will go from being worth nothing to worth par.
That is assuming of course that all those homeowners will be able to refi.
“I know this sounds like ufo’s and bigfoot kind of stuff, but the info is out there and is backed up in peer reviewed scientific data.”
Not to me. That’s why the French and Russians were all up in arms over the invasion. They could give two sh*ts for the Iraqi people. Elf, Total, Lukoil etc were going to get at the oil eventually if sanctions against Saddam were ever lifted.
Stu; Terrorist Islamic the guys with the planes into WTC.
3B I know the history and advocate 3 states with a lose confederation and central body to distibute oil money.Kurds wiil be a problem I agree.What do we do now with this
f up just leave , say good luck boys & girls.This is a fine mess we are in now.
I guess we could cut our losses & leave.
Might be best but after all that blood & money. Control of all that oil is not to be taken lightly either.What was that post the other day on resource wars down the road,well we got it now so maybe we should keep it.Never pay for the same piece of realestate twice.
Ok I guees I just hate to lose or run.By the way my 18 year old wants to join the armed services so I will have some very valuable skin in the game,so to speak.I don’t spend my sons lightly.I believe we must kill these terrorist where ever they live & are just stuck with Iraq.
stu,
I think the answer is both. As despicable as cheney may be, from what history of him i know he considers himself a true patriot. I suspect that he views the situation as him doing what is in the best interest of the country even if the public doesnt understand that. To borrow a famous quote, i suspect he believes that “YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH“
Stu; Terrorist Islamic the guys with the planes into WTC.
Well then maybe we should have invaded Saudi Arabia then.
Ann #280: I should have known that you were also an Edwards gal. :) I think we are the minority around here.
“Never pay for the same piece of realestate twice.”
And don’t let the French and Russians bribe the locals into giving it to them.
Mike,
The funny thing about calling someone terrorist, is that one persons terrorist is another freedom fighter, its really just another one of those pesky labels.
Steve,
The problem with us focusing on acquiring prime resources is that it is a short term solution. The best solution is an apollo like program to switch the primary US energy source. Also, someone the models for peak oil suggest that the people with the most resources will actually fair worse in the long run, as the people who convert first regardless of whether it is forced or voluntary will fair better in the long run. this is because the first one to do it can then corner the market on the tech and the techniques
Headline from Yahoo:
Employment Drops in a Pink Slip Blizzard
If I get one more email asking me to get on one more conference call this evening, I’m going to reach throught the computer and throttle someone.
stu 291,
its funny how many people miss the fact that the hijackers were saudi and bankrolled by accounts held by saudi banks and saudi middlemen
VMC (282)-
Unless the Senate strips all the Fannie/Freddie/FHA higher ceiling provisions out of the package.
Watch what happens to those stocks then.
IMO, that whole sector is going to detonate. Cut dividends, bank runs, you name it. I wouldn’t buy a financial stock with your money.
Stu (295)-
Headline from Yahoo:
Irrelevant Internet Company to be Eaten by Behemoth
284#, kettle, most time i like your reasoning. but i don’t get it on this one. if they were for the best of national interest, why they should be in jail?
> Oh and the funny thing is, based on the whole peak oil scenario that cheney has apparently favored (very doomy and very gloomy) the US being in iraq is a very good idea for our long term energy security.
I think both bush and cheney should be in jail, just putting their actions in perspective
295/296 relate
Clot…I purchased another 200 shares of SRS at 100 today.
If things move quick, drinks will be on the house at the GTG. :P
Rich,
Sent you an email..
kettle-
yes, pls post some links if you don’t mind. I’d like to read up on that subject. thanks!
Red…read Noam Chomsky
#294 – Agree 100% with the energy issue.
#273 Rich: The problem with universal health care is that no matter what Hillary might say, we will all be pushed into it, whether we want it or not.
– Why would you say that? and what do you propose is the alternative? We spend more per capita than any other nation and have nothing to show for it.
John, when bums and crackheads show up at emergency – who pays for that?
A “humble” foreign policy is not to go around policing the world. We have (had?) enough economic clout not to depend on military might.
red will do so tonight or 1st thing tomorrow, cant do so at work
Coward, where’s your priorities?
#297 kettle: Yes. So we invaded Iraq, when Saudi Arabia is the hot bed of Islamic terrorism.
And in the process we have destroyed Iraq,and created 2 million refugees; but who cares, we are the USA, we do not need to be humble.
And we have lots of poor whites, blacks and Hispanics in the armed forces that we can use for cannon fodder. But hey they volunteered.
Bring back the draft, and we will be out of Iraq in 6 months.
Bost,
I always thought you were a trader, too.
#298, Hey Clot, one financial stock that’s been very good to me is RWT, up 54% since I bought it in October. The rest I wouldn’t touch, and I may sell RWT soon, I’m not sure. That baby has thrown off $3.50/sh in dividends since I bought it too.
I agree, it could be a rough ride. I have some short exposure with FXP and SJL right now.
#290 kettle; Cheney the patriot? Is this the same Cheney who when asked on a 60 Minutes interview several years ago about his 5 or 6 deferrals for military service in Vietnam, replied: I had better things to do in the 60’s than go to Vietnam.
Yeah some patriot.
stu (302)-
Maybe Pulte will go bankrupt this week. That should give you a nice little pump.
Bi 300
Sorry, i was trying not to stray too deeply into politics.
Both cheney and bush have lied numerous times over illegal spying on US citizens, illegally deleting whitehouse e-mails, etc.
this is why i thin they should be in jail.
While i think that cheney’s actions may have a noble purpose 9depending on your point of view) i think it is the short sighted option. In the 90’s the saudis determined that if they ever let oil get to high and put real pressure on the US energy market, that we could move our primary energy demands off of oil within 8 years in an apollo type program. The same estimates have been suggested by various US think tanks. The catch 22 is that there are models that suggest if the US did this, then it could destabilize world energy markets
Bush and Cheney are war criminals.
When you’re taking a pounding come to Papa Bergabe;
“With U.S. mortgage foreclosures set to top 1 million this year and home prices falling at the fastest pace since the Great Depression, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Vice Chairman Thomas Russo says the government must take action to prevent a recession.”
“The worst drop in new home sales on record has turned financial leaders into champions of big government with everyone from Russo to executives at Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. supporting public measures to keep the housing market from sinking the economy. It’s a change from Wall Street’s usual stance that markets work best without government interference.”
“Mark Kiesel of Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s largest bond fund manager, said rescuing borrowers will worsen the economic misery for everyone. Kiesel helps oversee more than $700 billion of fixed-income investments at Pimco.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBahn5eH_8cI&refer=home
#289 mike: The longer we stay in the Middle East, the longer the agony will go on.
Perhaps now we will focus as soembody said on an Apollo type plan, and rid ourselves of the use of fossill fuels once and for all.
It always amazes that egarding the combustion enegine, a technoloy that is over 100 years old, we still haev not allegedly not found a replacement for it to power our cars.
VMC (311)-
Here’s my idea of a good financial stock: pawnshops. Check the January chart of this fine lender:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:CSH
#316 BC Bob: It’s a change from Wall Street’s usual stance that markets work best without government interference.”
That is only when it suits them, underneath it all many are a bunch of crybabies.
3b
I do not like or support cheney. I am simply describing his actions and what i believe his point of view to be. I think that he see’s himself as a great patriot in that he wants the US to be/stay the most powerful nation in the world at any cost
Even if a draft started tomorrow, we will not be leaving iraq anytime soon. Leaving iraq would mean giving up control over the largest untapped oil reserve in the world and with peak oil here, thats not going to happen. iraq has nothing to do with WMD’d or with the iraqi people.
I wonder what the cost of defending a separate South Korea has been for over 50 years? I wonder what the cost would have been to maintain a separate South Vietnam for 40 years? I wonder if our politicians understand that they don’t have the money to maintain worldwide artificial geographical boundaries? The Russian General in charge of their incursion into Afghanistan said it well, when he said, the only way Russia could have won was Euthanasia, which they weren’t willing to do. Politicians should never start a war, they are not willing to win. If oil is so important, it would seem like the more important place to send the military is Venezuela.
“If things move quick, drinks will be on the house at the GTG. :P”
Keep ’em there ’til the patients arrive, Stu!
Grim (303),
Sent info
What’s the over/under on how many regulars show up at the GTG?
Ground rules?
(e.g., must have posted on at least three occasions, spouses (spice?) count).
I’ll say 19.
Also, how many lurkers will show up? If lurkers show up will they just lurk?
Will LurkerA show up?
3b 117,
We can replace Internal Combustion Engines (ICE). Oil is the most energy dense resource availble, second only to nuclear. We started on oil first as we did not even understand radiation yet much less the science needed to run a nuclear reactor. To switch from oil we have 2 main choices. we can continue to use ICE and burn hydrogen ( this is a very low efficiency process) or we can use nukes along with a basket of other alternatives to run our transport system directly off of electricity. This is harder to do as there are legitimate debates as to whether or not it would even be feasible to replace every single ICE with a battery system. There are some high tech super capacitors that are jst coming out but that is 10+ years out.
We have the tech and the know how to solve the issue. the problem is the will to act and the actual implementation. people fear change!!!
The smartest way to go long term is nukes backed up by solar/tidal/wind/geothermal . modern nuke tech allows use to take the waste from one reactor, process it and use that in another reactor. The estimates of the world running out of uranium in 50 years, assumes that only 1st generation nukes are used. they’re currently testing 5th generation nukes in the lab and each generation of nuke can burn the waste products from the previous generation reactors. The key factor for a high tech society is energy density.
321 confused
other than the last line, we’ve got common ground.
325 ket
I don’t know the answer to this question, so hopefully you do:
There’s a finite amount of uranium and plutonium, just as there is a finite amount of oil. How long would it last at projected rate of depletion?
104
Wow. Pot, meet kettle.
328:
(Apologies to Kettle1, and potheads everywhere.)
“I wonder if our politicians understand that they don’t have the money to maintain worldwide artificial geographical boundaries?”
Confused,
Delusional homeowners borrow from those earning $2 a hour, to live in a house that they can not afford. At the same time, our govt borrows from Communist China in the hopes of spreading democracy throughout the world?
Jamey (328)-
Kill yourself.
confused,
venezaluela ddnt/dosnt make sense for a number of reasons. Iraq had a good political smoke screen for invasion compared to venezuela (comparatively that is, the world doesnt generally accept imperialist invasions anymore which would have been blatant in venezuela.). We could not have gottena ny other countries to help in venezuela ( not that we really needed it but it makes things a little easier and makes the invasion more politically acceptable world wide). Then we have one of the big reasons. The terrain! if you thin gorilla action is bad in iraq then imagine venezuale. It would be vietnam/korea all over again. For these and many other reasons iraq made more sense.
Iraq is one subject I stay clear of however I knew an italian guy with an IRAC once and it was bitchin fact.
281 Jill
I totally agree!
The important thing, I think, if you’re buying now, is that it is something that a buyer can live in for a really long time (forever if you have to) without being miserable, including any life changes that may come (getting married, having kids, if that’s on their list).
Such a home could be anything, depending on a person’s circumstances, but underbuying can be dangerous right now.
kettle
according to google, here’s the answer to my nuke question:
Current situation
According to the summary of uranium resources published jointly by the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD and the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, known reserves of uranium from conventional sources are slightly more than 3 million tonnes. Reactor requirements are fairly steady at about 60,000 tonnes per year. Thus there is about 50 years supply of uranium known at this stage to be available.
This is, however, an oversimplification of the situation. It is now clear that uranium is not scarce and it is known that it averages almost two parts per million of the Earth’s crust. There are substantial resources that are not yet fully proven. These so-called speculative resources are likely to be of the order of 10 million tonnes, about three times the known reserves. While prices remain low, there is no incentive for exploration activities to identify new deposits. Experience with other commodities has shown that increased demand has led to increased prices, and a subsequent increase in exploration and discovery.
Fuel supply
Newly mined uranium is not the only source of nuclear fuel. Reprocessing of spent fuel to extract plutonium and uranium for use in new reactor fuel is already being undertaken in a number of countries. This displaces about 2000 tonnes of mine production each year, but the potential for recycling is considerably greater than this.
The utilisation of highly enriched uranium (HEU) from military sources, by diluting it to the low level of enrichment required for civil nuclear reactor fuel, is replacing about over 10,000 tonnes of newly mined uranium each year. However, once again, the potential is somewhat higher. If all of the world’s military nuclear material were to be made available for electricity generation, even more natural uranium could be replaced.
290:
You’re pretty much on the money about Cheney. He likely sees himself as a man only history is fit to judge, the rest be damned.
# 328
Hi Pot, I am kettle, nice to meet you! do you come here often?…. your handle is looking quite shapely tonight ;)
Clot:
331. Brilliant riposte, even for you.
Plus Venezuelan oil is heavy oil not light sweet.
jill 281
“a 4th bedroom that my DH uses as a smoking lounge … so the whole house doesn’t smell like cigarettes, and a 13 x 24 basement family room that … is just my yoga studio”
Opposites attract, no?
Nj patient #327
That is a complex question. It depends on future population growth, energy demands and what type of nuke tech is used. I can give you an in depth answer at the GTG if you like, it would be a little long for typing.
the short answer is that if we used a mixture of 2nd -4th generation tech, we should have about 200 years on the low side and 1000 years on the REALLY optimistic side, if i were a betting man i would put my money on somewhere around 200- 400 years
nj patient also look up breeder reactors and thorium reactors. uranium is no the only nuclear fuel and breeder reactors create more fuel then they use (no it does not violate thermodynamics. The catch is that breeders are great for weapons material
nj patient
saying that we will only use enriched uranium is the same as saying we ill only use light sweet crude. There are large quantities of other types of oil and they are used quite a bit.
thanks ket
I’ve been watching Peak Oil news for about three years. Ethanol from corn is not a viable solution since the fossil fuel inputs needed to grow corn in the first place will be rather expensive on the backside of Hubbert’s Peak. Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energy source. Assuming all safety and distribution issues can be resolved, the hydrogen in your gas tank will need to be produced by electricity generated by, you guessed it, fossil fuels.
The housing boom’s true tragedy is that cheap gasoline helped fuel (pun intended) the price boom in the exurbs. Gas at $1.25 a gallon makes a commute from the Poconos to North NJ feasible and gives those new homes some value. Gas at $7 a gallon will make a long commute a thing of the past and drive another nail in the exurban real estate coffin.
if anyone is curious what peak oil could mean for some countries, may i suggest you look at what has been happening in South Africa lately. ( nation wide power shortages for the last 3 weeks) and is expected to continue to have power shortages for years….
jmac,
hydrogen is really anymore dangerous then natural gas or gasoline. you are right that hydrogen is just a carrier, but there are nuclear reactor designs that can create hydrogen as a byproduct at industrial scales! these have been built at pilot scale and work.
you have to remember that fossil fuels will not be an option long term, so just take them off you list and look at what else you have.
If anybody wants to read a fun blog “debunking” peak oil try this: http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/ The guy there doesn’t deny peak oil will occur, just that we can adapt to it, etc. I find it a nice change from the normal doomer stuff like Kunstler (whom I also like reading).
i think the best answer is a combination of hydrogen ICE for legacy tech (cars and heavy equipment) and new vehicles being electric. As i said before go to Nukes, large scale solar in the deserts, and wind/ and (hot rock) geothermal for the primary power sources. The waste heat from certain types of nuclear reactors can be used to generate hydrogen.
On a different tone…
I present you… the ‘Dream $ home from Beazer’
Hurry, hurry, offer expires soon!
http://dollardays.beazer.com/index1.aspx
Is there a particular formula to figure out what IS a good price for a house right now? What year’s prices would be reasonable right now?
346#, kettle, when jimmy carter was in office in 1978, we had a lot of talks on peak oil and global famine. why this time is different from 30 years ago?
Steve
That blog portrays the Absolute best case scenario. Not impossible, but unlikely. i am not suggesting a mad max scenario, but i think it will be inbetween.
Kettle,
The prospect of using nukes to generate hydrogen strikes me as insane. Not because it wouldn’t work, when in all likelihood it could work. It’s crazy when you consider the lengths we’d go through in order to preserve the status quo rather than face up to the reality that we consume resources unlike any other species that has ever come before or will come after. Re-localizing almost everything and a national mission to re-invest in railroads and public transport is the best way to keep things going until future science can come up with a solution.
Peak Oil?
Come on….ever heard of a long-run demand curve?
Honestly, things may look dire, but mostly due to the fact that they are not….YET
Kettle referenced Absolute
Like kats and dawgs together
kettle1 Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 3:58 pm
“stu,
I think the answer is both. As despicable as cheney may be, from what history of him i know he considers himself a true patriot. I suspect that he views the situation as him doing what is in the best interest of the country even if the public doesnt understand that. To borrow a famous quote, i suspect he believes that “YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH“”
I agree, and that is what makes him so scary – that unshakable faith in himself and his world view that won’t allow him to see anything outside of his own head.
Kind of an American Jihadi.
jmacdaddio Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Kettle,It’s crazy when you consider the lengths we’d go through in order to preserve the status quo rather than face up to the reality that we consume resources unlike any other species that has ever come before or will come after.
Manolo: guess you’ve never had a chronically sick pet……
Cheney as Scarface
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th4su1NDu0g
bi,
The 70s situation is different from today because today’s situation is demand-driven whereas before it was the Arabs cutting off the spigot. The world produces about 88 million barrels per day and consumes about 88 million barrels per day. Any slight hiccup in production or spike in demand will tilt the balance. By some projections in 2020 the world will demand 120 million bpd yet only produce 70 million… the tar sands and deepwater projects will not make up for declines in the North Sea, Prudhoe Bay, Cantarell, etc.
The world in 2020 will not be a world without oil. It will be a world with very, very expensive fuel and anything made from petrochemicals. You can see it already at the grocery store. Deodorant that was $2.29 is now over $4. Food staples are skyrocketing because of fertilizer costs and transport costs. The upcoming election is critical because we’re running out of chances to prevent the Mad Max scenario.
Venezuela
According to the Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Venezuela had 77.2 gigabarrels of proven conventional oil reserves as of 2007 (80 years of future production), the largest of any country in the Western Hemisphere. In addition it has non-conventional oil deposits similar in size to Canada’s – at 1,200 billion barrels approximately equal to the world’s reserves of conventional oil. About 267 billion barrels of this may be producible at current prices using current technology.[citation needed] Venezuela’s Orinoco tar sands are less viscous than Canada’s Athabasca oil sands – meaning they can be produced by more conventional means, but are buried deeper – meaning they cannot be extracted by surface mining. In an attempt to have these extra heavy oil reserves recognized by the international community, Venezuela has moved to add them to its conventional reserves to give nearly 350 billion barrels of total oil reserves. This would give it the largest oil reserves in the world, even ahead of Saudi Arabia. In October 2007 the Venezuelan government said its proven oil reserves have risen to 100 billion barrels. The energy and oil ministry said it has certified 12.4 billion additional barrels of proven reserves in the country’s Faja del Orinoco region.[23]
Imagine if the US after the 70’s oil embargo, simply all drove Morris Mini’s or equivalents, versus the current don’t need to meet car standards trucks. What would the fuel savings have been over those 40 years. Ralph Nader’s been ignored on this issue for years. Would it have been too much to ask Americans to drive smaller. Safety isn’t a big factor if you’re all driving cars with bumpers that match versus SUV’s that roll over you.
Back to the topic of this blog…
Sale of NJ apartment portfolio has fallen through.
14 building portfolio owned by Applied almost sold for $1.5 billion. That price implied per unit value of $536,000.
I don’t know which Applied buildings were being marketed. I think they own 30-something buildings across NJ.
Anybody know why Applied is selling? Are the Barry kids reallocating capital out of NJ? Do they need the $ to fund their development pipeline?
352 rabs
FWIW, we just sold and bought for 2004 prices (not inflation adjusted). From what I see in the data I am still following, 2004 seems to be where things still are for now for the houses that are selling. List prices are still 2005 plus some mostly from what I see. HTH
Ann,
In what part of NJ are you witnessing these price trends?
Confused In NJ, jmacdaddio and bi
looking at your comments about oil and i’m just curious if any of you feel that hedge funds, traders , speculation can contribute to the price of oil? and if so how much?
367 Crossroads
Stupak in legislation say’s $20-$30 per barrel
http://www.house.gov/list/speech/mi01_stupak/20080103pumpact.html
crossroads,
There will always be some speculation but the simple truth is that OPEC can no longer turn on their excess capacity spigot whenever oil prices get too high. Don’t forget that the prices also include a security premium due to market fears of supply disruptions due to political instability. The price will fluctuate over the next decade but the long trend is definitely up.
I truly hope that when I buy, I have enough left over to install solar panels.
Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has offered China wide-ranging access to the country’s oil reserves.
The offer, made as part of a trade deal between the two countries, will allow China to operate oil fields in Venezuela and invest in new refineries
I cannot believe I read this entire thread and completely agree with Kettle.
Holy crap.
And to think I was in what could be described as pain when I could still hope Gore would make a run. Then I settled for Edwards. Now shit. I gotta decide all over again.
disclaimer: agreement lasts for this thread only and is not good on future threads or previous threads.
366
North & Central
366
Also, just the select houses that I’ve been following on while buying and selling.
363 confused
More common ground
370 lost
Same
My bro is doing that
patient,
It will work until we find a way to suck the life out of the sun too. :)
Get the Book “A Peace to End All Peace” It clearly shows what went on between WWI & WWII as far as Brits & French efforts fo carve up the “Oil” for themselves. Coined the phrase “The Great Game” for intervention in Afganistan.
spam,
i didnt know that we generally had different points of view
378 roy,and all
http://tinyurl.com/yvb8m2
this is a link to goog video, a 45 min piece called Robert Newmans History of Oil. its a good piece, take at least a short look at it. it is very informative and historically accurate
confused 362
there are large quantities of oil located around the world. the issue is supply and demand. this is not the forum for me to really debate the details, so i wont. suffice it to say that supply cannot keep up with demand at the same level of EROEI (energy returned on energy invested). The current oil based infrastructure is unlikely to handle supply issues very well. feel free to consider me a crackpot :)
380 Kettle1
I’m not planning beyond 2012 anyway.
confused,
my condolences… early i suppose
Wow, good thread!
382. Kettle1
C’est la vie!, C’est la guerre!
‘Chaplins visiting Congress…’
The real winners would be Alterboys and paiges.
crossroads Says:
February 1st, 2008 at 6:57 pm
“looking at your comments about oil and i’m just curious if any of you feel that hedge funds, traders , speculation can contribute to the price of oil?”
In any market the underlying fundamentals are the principal determinant of prices. That said, prices can easily be distorted for a longer period of time than most can conceive; dot.com, re bubble. However, there is a constant for the energies; the api report/fundamentals. Eventually the market will trade based on supply/demand, the weekly inventory #’s. March 08 trades at a $1.30 premium to March 09. The market is in backwardation, futures are lower in comparison to the front months. This indicates robust demand at this time. Normally, futures markets are in contango, back months more expensive. This is attributed to the cost to carry. While this market is in backwardation, the physical market is determining the trade. Until this market flips,[front,less than back] it’s extremely bullish.
The market traded in the low 50’s, just one year ago. Presently, it’s consolidating around its highs at 85-100. Is it possible that speculation, hedge funds are suppressing the price? Have the long dated calls/puts been sold/bought at the $100 strike price? Are the hedge funds protecting the $100 price? If this gets violated can the market shoot right up to $110-120?
385.d2b
Chaplains are any denomination, Christian, Jewish, Muslem, etc.
Chifi 356
Serious question. If you dont by into peak oil, why are companies like Shell making public statements about it and projecting a date (approx 2015 according to shell). or Former CEO of Talisman Energy: Peak oil is ‘here or hereabouts’ in an interview on ABC radio
http://tinyurl.com/268k7x
As far as Iraq goes, of course it’s about oil. But I don’t see anything noble about Cheney here. Iraq’s oil reserves may be controlled by the US. But those reserves will be turned over to American companies that will take that oil out of the ground and sell it to the highest bidder. That’s capitalism.
Our government is simply subsidizing private industry and ensuring future profits for oil companies.