Preliminary January sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only January sales, 2000 to 2008 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
DOOM. This market will fall 30% in 3 years. Everyone hold off on your house purchase. I purchased a property in Bangalore, India and now it has appreciated 400%. That is the real market. it might fall 20% but still India/Chain is where you need to invest your money. Atleast for the next 5 years.
Wow, just wow….
Looks pretty bad. Dirt cookies and cardboard buns for everyone!
Englewood
SLD 207 CHESTNUT ST $3,900,000 6/22/2004
SLD 207 CHESTNUT ST $3,200,000 2/5/2008 (Newly renovated)
That little purple dot at the bottom-left of the first chart looks very lonely.
This is some very sickening stuff. Hard to argue that the big capitulation isn’t nigh.
If that pink dot drops in February (which most likely it will), you might have to lower the sales column from 1000 to 0.
The data is mindboggling….
I kept looking at that first chart thinking James left off the new data point. That is amazing.
Ruh-roh
S,
IMO, Indian RE is going to get crushed.
i made a bid 540k in a house asking price 569k
another guy offered more an got it
with the new low interest rate,we are going to see higher prices and more sales. It is happenning. I do not know for how long
Ina 400 k loan, you pay like 2300 a month, it is very cheap. It used to be like 3000 a month
My friend saw a house in Wayne and liked it very much. He made an offer (close to asking, 759k) and he was told there was another offer higher than his. The house was sold (closed) two months later.
You hear everywhere that people can’t afford to buy a house but it’s hard to get the one you like either even you have the money.
Please tell your friends to wait this market out before buying – seems like there’s always someone out there who gives in and believes the realtors
with the new low interest rate,we are going to see higher prices and more sales. It is happenning. I do not know for how long
Shucky,
January contracts (GSMLS) plummeted 35.9% year over year.
January 2007 saw 2419 contracts
January 2008 saw only 1550.
Almost 1000 less contracts signed this January compared to last.
The decline of 35.9% is the steepest since the downturn began. In fact, the downturn continues to accelerate
October -16.5%
November -24.6%
December -31.9%
January -35.9%
I understand your frustration, and the basis for your opinion/anecdote, but the data simply doesn’t reflect “more sales”.
January contracts for Bergen on NJMLS are down a similar 30.1%, falling from 682 in January of 2007 to 477 in January of 2008.
Bob Toll isn’t seeing it either…
From MarketWatch:
Toll Q1 revenue falls 22%, firm sees no sign of recovery
Toll Bros. said Wednesday that the firm doesn’t see any end in sight to housing market woes, and said its first quarter home building revenues fell 22% compared to year-ago levels. “”The housing market remains very weak in most areas. Based on current traffic and deposits, we are not yet seeing much light at the end of the tunnel,” said Robert Toll, the firm’s chairman and CEO. Toll, the firm, said its backlog fell to $2.40 billion, down 42% from the fiscal first quarter of 2007. It said the number of signed contracts on homes fell 46% from last year. It said the average price of a house it sold fell, while the average price of the cancelled houses rose. Joel Rassman, Toll’s chief financial officer, said in a press release, “with conditions still weak in most markets, we expect to continue to face challenging times ahead. We are still in the midst of finalizing our first-quarter impairment analysis; however, we currently estimate that pre-tax write-downs in FY 2008’s first quarter will be between $150 million and $300 million.” Toll said it will report full fiscal 2008 first quarter results on February 27.
Just an interesting anecdote..
The local Realtor associations have been holding “Short Sale” seminars. Word on the street is that classes are filling up fast.
Isn’t it amazing? Out of one side of their mouth, the market is doing just fine. Out of the other? “How do I profit from the downturn?”
Housing Gap
Those eager to become homeowners have reason to cheer the home-price drops seen in many local housing markets as a number of areas have gotten more affordable over the past year, according to a study released on Tuesday by the Center for Housing Policy.
The amount of income needed to purchase a median-priced home dipped in 161 of 201 markets studied in the report, “Paycheck to Paycheck: Wages and the Cost of Housing in America.” Some of the biggest affordability improvements came in the most expensive markets in California, Washington, D.C., Arizona and Florida, according to the center, which is the research affiliate of the National Housing Conference, an advocate for affordable housing.
Registered nurses, for example, can’t afford the median-priced home in 108 markets, a slight improvement from the 114 markets they were priced out of in 2006.
Customer-service representatives couldn’t afford the median-priced home in 185 markets in 2007, and office clerks couldn’t afford it in 196 markets, the study found. Retail salespeople and food-preparation workers still couldn’t afford a median-price home in all 201 markets.
According to Wachter’s quarterly mortgage payment index, applications for adjustable-rate mortgages dropped 39.6% from January 2007 to January of 2008, while applications for fixed-rate loans jumped 60.1% during the same period.
bubble (12)-
Relax. You can’t drive the market to 0.
grim (16)-
I’ve heard that the classes are so cursory, they’re useless.
I also doubt that most agents will have the stomach for dealing with situations that are, inevitably, very emotionally difficult. The people who have to sell short are usually facing a lot more than just the foreclosure.
My neighbor, two houses up, just listed as a short sale.
Too bad, nice kid.
He never had a chance at affording it.
Doesn’t have a chance at getting anywhere near asking, either.
I am anticipating 2 houses, perhaps 3 that are near mine going into foreclosure soon…
Great rant over at Big Picture:
Moodys Warning Labels (sub-prime version)
I am registered for the class in feb. however I agree with clot, I have 2 listing’s that will be short sales, these sales will not go through they will foreclose instead. One owner has totally walked away from his whole life, so getting the neeeded paperwork is not happening, and the other while still living in the house is just as uncooperative, although he claims to just want out I can’t get from him what is needed.
KL
For what it’s worth, I’m planning on registering as well.
Class is all booked up at RealSource, I may take it at PCBOR.
(15) Grim on Toll Bros. Builders….
I know of two people here who have taken advantage of builders offering to buy their existing homes “at fair market value” so they will move into their new subdivisions. Will the builders write this off as an “operating loss” if they can’t resell? Although, one friend says hers already did sell – maybe at a loss for the builder…? Don’t know.
All of the ads last weekend touted low interest rates if you bought through the builder’s mortgage company. They are apparently trying anything to reduce their inventories. It just seems like they are buying more trouble and more write-downs for 08.
Office-Market Downturn Weighs on Region
A deal that would have breathed new life into an iconic New Jersey office
complex has unraveled, coinciding with a steep drop in north-central New Jersey’s
commercial real-estate sales late last year.
Preferred Unlimited Inc., a Conshohocken, Pa., real-estate investment
company, in November terminated an agreement to buy the two-million-square-foot
former Bell Labs complex in Holmdel, N.J., which includes offices and lab space
designed by Eero Saarinen, the architect of St. Louis’s Gateway Arch.
The matter is in litigation. A spokeswoman for Alcatel-Lucent, which owns the
property, says Preferred said it couldn’t obtain as much financing as it wanted.
Preferred denies that and says the French telecom giant failed to meet certain
conditions of the closing, which Alcatel denies.
Preferred acknowledges that changes in the credit markets and the
increasingly troubled housing market have soured any future interest it might
have in the nearly 500-acre property. “It’s the markets changing that ultimately
makes us not want to go back and work on it,” says Michael O’Neill, chief
executive of Preferred.
Sales of large commercial buildings have dropped nationally, but the
downswing in north-central New Jersey has been particularly chilly. In the fourth
quarter, the region’s overall sales of office, retail, warehouse and apartment
properties valued at $5 million or more fell 75% from the year-earlier quarter to
$811 million. The region tied with the metropolitan areas of Sacramento, Calif.,
and Kansas City, Mo., for the largest percentage drop of 50 major U.S. markets,
according to Real Capital Analytics Inc., New York, a real-estate research firm.
Some investors’ appetites for the market may have soured because area rents
haven’t risen as much as expected in recent years even as nearby Manhattan rents
have soared, according to Patrick Murphy, executive managing director in the
tri-state suburban region for real-estate brokerage firm CB Richard Ellis.
And even as the area’s average office rents are ticking up, the region also
is facing the headwinds of a potential national recession, difficulties among the
state’s financial-services companies and the contraction of the pharmaceutical
industry, one of the area’s key employers. Last month, drug maker Wyeth of
Madison, N.J., said it expects to cut 4% to 6% of its 50,000-employee work force
by midyear, though it hasn’t specified where the jobs will be trimmed.
Of course, drug companies are only one piece of the state’s relatively
diversified economy.Northern and central New Jersey is a dense patchwork of
suburbs, wealthy enclaves like Princeton and older cities like Newark. The
state’s overall annual job rate rose 0.7% in December from a year earlier, nearly
matching the 0.9% national rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
However, employment grew at just 0.3% in a three-county region comprising Bergen,
Hudson and Passaic counties and 0.4% in a six-county area anchored by Newark.
One bright spot is New Jersey’s waterfront, with its views of Manhattan from
Jersey City and Hoboken; third-quarter average rents in Hudson County are up 9.1%
from the year-earlier quarter to about $32 a square foot, according to Property &
Portfolio Research Inc., a Boston real-estate services firm. SJP Properties, a
Parsippany, N.J., developer, says it would like to prelease some of its planned
14-story Waterfront Corporate Center III office building before starting
construction, according to David Welch, chief financial officer of SJP
Properties.
But there is no doubt that there’s a heightened concern in the region from
the recent drumbeat of corporate-layoff announcements. “There’s a sense of
cautionary dread,” says James Schroeder, corporate managing director in the
Iselin, N.J., office of Studley, a real-estate services company that exclusively
represents tenants.
From the SouthBergenite
Bergen Community to open in the Meadows
http://www.southbergenite.com/NC/0/874.html
“The New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority has bucked up on a new venture with Bergen Community College.
The agency voted to sell a nine-acre site in the northwest corner of the Meadowlands to the college for $1.
The college intends to build a South Bergen campus on the property, on Paterson Plank Road, adjacent to the new NJ Transit rail station currently under construction and across the street from a $1.3 million Giants and Jets football stadium planned for the area.
“The campus will serve as a catalyst for the region, providing educational opportunities and job training for thousands of students,” said G. Jeremiah Ryan, president of Bergen Community College.
“
http://www.southbergenite.com/NC/0/877.html
From the SouthBergenite
Trump heads to Arlington Valley
The Trump Organization will incorporate the Arlington Valley project in North Arlington into its Master Plan for the Meadowlands, according to project executive Michael Cohen.
Still, any changes to the plan, still in litigation, would have to go through the borough first, according to Redevelopment attorney Jospeh Maraziti.
“EnCap, a brownfield redeveloper, brokered deals for two projects in the area. The “Miracle in the Meadowlands” project in Rutherford and Lyndhurst would turn landfills in the meadows into golf courses, housing and a hotel. Arlington Valley, a project by EnCap-affiliate corporation Cherokee Porete, would transform a strip of warehouses on Porete Avenue into a housing village complete with parks and retail space. This portion does not fall in the Meadowlands district, so zoning is decided by the borough alone.
“
5
Isn’t that what is needed? Seller capituation? It seems that this is the time lag between reality hitting sellers. Stuff is still selling for the right price. Sellers need to lower the asking prices.
And no, the market will never be zero. There will always be people like me.
24
Why are they going to be short sales/foreclosures? Did they buying during the peak and now need to sell for some reason? Did their mortgages boom? Did they lose their jobs, hit a medical disability?
“That little purple dot at the bottom-left of the first chart looks very lonely.”
Clot,
Island gap. Good night Irene.
#5 clot: Hard to argue that the big capitulation isn’t nigh.
But unbelieveably, some still will.
#10 shuky: Its not sold until it closes. A family member who does closings, tells me that financing is being pulled evey day for deals, some even a day or two before closing.
It is not sold until it is sold.
“Sellers need to lower the asking prices.”
Ann[30],
An enormous amount of mental and real capital will be squandered in the form of tuition before new lessons are learned and passed on to the next generation. The majority don’t have a clue, asset prices do decline. Hell, most haven’t lived thru a “real” bear market.
I’m at my mandatory realtor ethics training this morning.
Liveblogging, anyone?
I see homes in Bayonne NJ selling for 50% of 2006 prices, Gold Coast is turning into foreclosure coast.
PATERSON REOs are selling for 20% of 2006 prices, Wow!!!
grim Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 6:04 am
Shucky,
I understand your frustration, and the basis for your opinion/anecdote, but the data simply doesn’t reflect “more sales”.
grim: can you really say such a thing flatly? Isn’t January 2008 data really Nov/Dec market conditions?
I would not be surprised at some pockets of strength…fleeting as they may be…..
with the new low interest rate,we are going to see higher prices and more sales. It is happenning. I do not know for how long
Shucky,
January contracts (GSMLS) plummeted 35.9% year over year.
January 2007 saw 2419 contracts
January 2008 saw only 1550
Shucky,
Also, the 30 fixed rate was 6.22% in Jan 2007 and averaged 5.79% in Jan 2008. Your hypothesis is not supported.
Chi,
I based that comment on January contracts, not closings (sales).
Website suggestion:
Grim – It would be great you could load up the Contracts/Sales raw transactions in database table and allow visitors to run search on them. For anyone thinking of buying looking at comps would become very helpful.
PS: I can help in puting together Search form and writing db queries etc…
“PATERSON REOs are selling for 20% of 2006 prices”
That probably represents a bull market, at least for Paterson.
What #41 said.
#38
In addition, the anecdotal evidence may also simply be reflecting the isolated cases where a home was actually listed at what it should be. Which could lead to a normal bidding process.
#41,
Just use cyberhomes.com instead.
that is one cold and lonely little dot
# 10 “Ina 400 k loan, you pay like 2300 a month, it is very cheap. It used to be like 3000 a month”
This points to a big problem in the way many people view purchases, from TVs to cars to houses. So many times the main consideration seems to be the monthly cost and whether one can make the monthly payments. Granted, one needs to be able to cover the costs BUT just as great a consideration is whether the item being purchased is 1) a good deal at the price and 2) worth the price after considering the total cost — including interest payments and the opportunity cost of making the purchase at that time.
The singleminded focus on “I can make the payment” leads to bad decision making.
From yesterday:
“Clotpoll Says:
February 5th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
So, does Huckabee think dinosaurs are an elaborate hoax?
Or, did they roam the planet during the Civil War?”
Clot,
I don’t think that Huck believes that dinosaurs roamed the earth during the Civil War, the American Revolution, or even from the time of the birth of Christ. He is not that dogmatic; however, he may believe that dinos may have were used to help build the Pyramids ala the Flintstones. Yabba dabba dooooooo!
“Liveblogging, anyone?”
Yes, please!
Hello,
Can someone help me to interpret the last chart “Inventory Pace”. It has peaks on June 2003 and August 2006. How does it related to the boom of the housing market during that period of time.
Thanks,
007
007 – if the red line is above the x-axis, then inventory is increasing. How far it is above the x-axis determines the rate of increase.
OT
Anyone remember my comments last week about keeping an eye on natural gas prices and possible future shortages in times of heavy demand such as a severe winter??? It seems the NYtimes is starting to notice the issue.
link to my original comment
http://tinyurl.com/2qb6ka
From the NYTimes
WASHINGTON — Stymied in their plans to build coal-burning power plants, American utilities are turning to natural gas to meet expected growth in demand, risking a new upward spiral in the price of that fuel.
tility executives say they have little choice. With opposition to coal plants rising across the country — including a statement by three investment banks Monday saying they are wary of financing new ones — the executives see plants fired by natural gas as the only kind that can be constructed quickly and can supply reliable power day and night.
But North American supplies of natural gas will be flat or declining in coming years, according to the Energy Information Administration. The United States already has high natural gas prices, a problem for homeowners and many industries, like chemical and fertilizer producers. Some experts fear a boom in gas demand for electricity generation will send prices even higher.
edit, my comment was #91 in the previous link
A question on economics – specifically supply-side economics. It seems like such a good idea, so why doesnt it work?
53 David Stockman would say that it does.
53. In a nutshell it doesn’t work because while it tends to increase tax revenues politicians can’t help but spend the increased revenues. The Republicans on big shiny weapons and corporate welfare and the Democrats on placating unions and people who don’t want to take responsibility for their own life.
grim Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 9:04 am
Chi, I based that comment on January contracts, not closings (sales).
grim: but the current interest rate environment did not come entirely into play until the last week of January. People are only “feeling it” starting right now…..
Oy! I’m going to need a longer screen to read those graphs!
Good morning: I am working down in Panama this week, there is a building explosion in the Panama City area, luxury condos and singe family houses everywhere. We went for a ride in the new waterfront condo section and much to my surprise Trump is also building a luxury condo high rise (sold out) . I was speaking to one of the locals here in Panama, he tells me that they are getting ready to build a project similar to the Palm Island in the UAE but in the shape of the Panamanian flag. There is big European, US and Middle East money down here. One consortium is putting up $32 Billion dollars.
Grim can you give me the history of: Listing Number: MLS 2800113 is this a distressed property?
Remember the binary…….some people are “in the zone” right now….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a5MECtgQ6EJo&refer=us
live blog, yes! humorous commentary, anecdotes required!
# 53 You may want to pick up a book (or look at web resources) dealing with Say’s Law. Supply-Side, Trickle-Down, Piddle-on, and other related economic terms go back to Say, and later, Laffer.
#41 SG
Actually, if there is interest, this isn’t that hard. I just spent 5 minutes and wrote a script which parses out the buyinginbergen sales pages… with another 10 minutes I can get these into a database and, with a few hours more, hack up a quick-and-dirty interface to issue queries against them.
Is there interest here? Does this provide informatio which isn’t available elsewhere?
Interesting anecdote: Friend of mine in scenic Leonia just put her house on the market. The Realtor (!) suggested that she list it at a price roughly 15% above the comps (by my calculation). The Realtor’s rationale: “New Yorkers would look at the price and think it’s a bargain.”
Whats the typical fee to get an appraisal done? $325 fair?
Proof-of-concept (may not come out formatted correctly) of a CSV-type export:
$ ./test.pl http://buyinginbergen.com/sales.html | head -2
“Bergenfield”,”115 S PROSPECT AVE”,”C/C”,”3″,”2″,”$305,000″,”PUBLIC TRUST REALTY GROUP”,”RUSSO REAL ESTATE / BERGENFIELD”
“Bogota”,”6 PALISADE AVE”,”S/L”,”3″,”2″,”$338,000″,”EXIT VICTORY REALTY”,”OUTSIDE BROKER”
kl (24)-
You may want to consider approaching short sales with a “turn and burn” philosophy. Since over 50% of all short sales that even draw a contract fall through, I tell my clients upfront that they must do EVERYTHING I tell them to do, WHEN I tell them to do it. They must also immediately make arrangements with their lenders to allow me to negotiate directly on their behalf. If clients disagree, refuse or stall, the listing is withdrawn, and the sign comes out of the ground.
At the end of the day, you’re still going to have lots of fall-throughs, but at least they won’t eat you alive.
Buyback Blowback at Ambac and MBIA
http://www.lewrockwell.com/englund/englund44.html
Referenced on Dealbreaker
#63 Realtors in Bergen are obsessed with the mythical,unending supply of NY’ers who supposedly will buy anywhere in Bergen Co.
grim (35)-
The training will be over before you can get your laptop turned on.
“Cursory” is the word that comes to mind, if it’s the NJAR course you’re taking. Watch a video, and you’re outta there.
anyone see Hilary on Letterman monday night? I recorded it and watched last night.
Was the first time I’d heard her talk semi-extemporarily, and came aware impressed.
Her comments on the mortgage bailout plan sounded reasonable (freezing rates), but also vague enough to not actually apply to many.
I was leaning towards Obama-rama, but Hillary’s experience and clearer stance on certain issues has turned me a bit.
If only she’d fess up and renounce her backing of the iraq war (which she probably isn’t doing to grab a few fence sitters who actually support the war)
Shore (47)-
“…he may believe that dinos may have were used to help build the Pyramids ala the Flintstones. Yabba dabba dooooooo!”
Of course! Why didn’t I realize this?
I now no longer believe in evolution, but in intelligent design (as explained by The Flintstones). :)
ChiFi (38)-
“I would not be surprised at some pockets of strength…fleeting as they may be…”
It’s not even pockets. It’s individual homes. Listings are either priced to sell, or dead meat. No in-between.
juice (64)-
Fair.
Kurt (70)-
“Her comments on the mortgage bailout plan sounded reasonable (freezing rates)…”
Kurt, in what way is breach of contract “reasonable”? Because it’s gubmint breaching the contract?
70.
Hil sounded good in her “victory” address last night, too.
I have a pet theory, that”experience” as an attribute of presidential aspirants often is loosely defined and, if it’s not oxymoronic to say so, grossly overrated. Richard Nixon had SCADS of experience; Lyndon Johnson, now there was one experienced guy; George H.W. Bush, was possibly the most “qualified” person ever to enter the White House… History does not speak glowingly to these men and their presidency.
IMO, It takes a certain type of megalomaniac to state definitively, “I alone have the requisite experience to be the ‘leader of the free world.'” And, yet, running for president demands that in spades. Some are adroitly sociopathic; they can suppress the narcissism often enough to actually do decent job as chief executive (e.g., Clinton). Others are overwhelmed by it and other personal baggage (e.g., Bush II).
When Property Taxes Got Tough, My Family Got Going
http://tinyurl.com/2z5n4n
“Property taxes too high? Find a location that offers your family a better deal.
The benefits might be about more than money.”
“Her comments on the mortgage bailout plan sounded reasonable (freezing rates)”
Since when is federal government intervention into how much can be charged for borrowing money a “reasonable” position? This is big government nannyism at is worst. Clinton is the absolute worst of the remaining candidates when it come to economic issues and markets. It seems none of her husband’s good sense rubbed off on her. Which I guess makes he perfect for the sheeple in NJ.
-#50, njpatient,
I look at both Inventory Pace and North Jersey Sales/Inventory Overlay at the same time. I can see the inventory level varies on seasonal time frame every year and start to build up by the end of 2005.
I would expect the Inventory Pace reflect part of the variation. As you can see at the mid of 2004, the inventory level went up to 16000 while the number for 2003 is around 15500. I would expect a higher inventory pace (rate of change of inventory) at 2004, instead of 2003. So that was my question.
Thanks
007
Clot #66
I can understand the benefits of short sales for people who were speculators or for a second home. But with a primary residence wouldn’t it be better for them just to stop paying the mortgage and keep their money for 6-12 months until a foreclosure finally kicks them out? Especially all of the subprimers who already have bad credit scores.
If you do not care about your FICO why bother with a short sale? Why bother negotiating with a bank, mortgage broker or realtor who they probably blame for getting them in their mess in the first place. After all, it is much easier to blame someone else for your mistakes. There are probably hundreds of thousands, if not millions, who echo this couples sentiments –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sB_po_mKN4Q&eurl=http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/
“Her comments on the mortgage bailout plan sounded reasonable (freezing rates)…”
kurt [70],
Yeah, just what the markets/investors want to hear. Dead man walking, Japan.
I would vote Obama if he were more conservative. Unfortunately, most will vote for him because he is young and energetic and a pop culture icon such as Bill Clinton became. Hillary what else can you say and do to get elected?
Sorry, I don’t want my taxes paying for more social programs.
That whole freezing interest rate freeze is pure pandering to the base. It’ll never work in the real world and then they always have the “rich hedge fund” bogeyman to blame for ignorant people’s bad decision making.
Just like the Republicans saying how much they love Jesus and then blaming gay marriage for the destruction of our society.
Clearly, more government is the answer!
BC, JB, Clot:
if the alternative to freezing (some) rates is foreclosure, the banks will likely lose more money than if they foreclose at the earliest possible time. It is in their interests to modify contracts (mortage) that are headed for foreclosure.
Now, who decides which mortages fit this? Great question. But as every forecloser costs a bank $50,000+ foregoing a few thousand bucks on interest if it’ll keep a person in the house while they figure out how to eventually make higher payments saves them money in the long run.
Will some people still eventually go bust even if rates/foreclosure is put off? of course.
The term “bail-out” is miscast for this plan, it could be the ‘lessest evil’ for banks, homeowners, and communities.
BTW – I’m still sitting on the sidelines as a renter due to the out of control prices, so I have reason to not shed a tear if banks go under and dreamers get kicked out of their over-bought homes.
“A prudent investor might wish to consider the historic relationship between economic activity and commercial real estate trends. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing (Service Sector) Business
Activity Index illustrates this close relationship.”
“Service sector trends tend to lead commercial real estate trends, both to the
upside and to the downside. For example, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped sharply after the tech bubble burst in late 2000. Over the next three years, the office vacancy rate in Midtown Manhattan more than doubled, from less than 5% to more than 11%. Nationwide vacancy rates mirrored the
Manhattan trend. Indeed, many cities suffered much higher rates. As economic
activity rebounded, however, the vacancy rate retreated to nearly 6%”
http://www.agorafinancial.com/afrude/
HEHEHE – that’s probably true. Like the “assault weapons” ban doesn’t make any appreciable impact on gun violence, simply to try to pacify pacifists :/
Kurt – absolutely! I bet the Bloods and the Cryps in Newark are quite upset at the prospect of an assault weapons ban.
#83
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard
(70) good post Jamey (RE presidential experience)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a8Lpls0u6BvA&refer=home
very informative article Pat.
Would like to hear each candidate address this issue specifically (if they are in favor of some sort of rate freeze, how they would reign in the banks so as not to allow them the ‘accounting feebies’)
I had to read most of the paragraphs in that article 2 or 3 times, and I’m a college grad. Find it hard to believe any candidate would see value in trying to articulate a plan with this level of specifics to the masses.
IMO – we need to get away from the 20 year Bush/Clinton dynasty. Look at where this country had gone over this time frame…right in the crapper. And do people truly think that Bill won’t poke his weenie is this country’s affairs again if his wife is elected. Come on.
What I find amazing is the total lack of quality political prospects on all sides of the playing field. Although I am a Rep, I think Obama would be nice change of pace for this country. He has good leadership qualities and I’m sure would surround himself with seasoned individuals to make up for his “lack of experience”…or should I say “lack of taintedness”.
‘accounting freebies’ :)
the so called assault weapons ban is a complete joke. It clearly shows that the people writing this stuff have very little understanding of firearms and how they work and the law is simply pandering fluff. Note that Automatic firearms have been heavily regulated since the 30’s and the assault weapons ban says nothing about automatic weapons as they are already regulated
The Federal Assault Weapons Ban was only a small part (title XI, subtitle A) of the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act.
The act created a definition of “assault weapons” and subjected firearms that met that definition to regulation. Nineteen models of firearms were defined by name as being “assault weapons”. Various semi-automatic rifles, pistols, and shotguns were classified as “assault weapons” due to having various combinations of features.
The act addressed only semi-automatic firearms, that is, firearms that fire one shot each time the trigger is pulled. Neither the AWB nor its expiration changed the legal status of fully automatic firearms, which fire more than one round with a single trigger-pull; these had long been regulated by the National Firearms Act of 1934.
By former U.S. law the legal term assault weapon included certain specific semi-automatic firearm models by name (e.g., Colt AR-15, H&K G36E, TEC-9, all AK-47s, and Uzis) and other semi-automatic firearms because they possess a minimum set of features from the following list of features:
Semi-automatic rifles able to accept detachable magazines and two or more of the following:
* Large capacity ammunition magazines
* Folding or telescoping stock
* Conspicuous pistol grip
* Bayonet mount
* Flash suppressor, or threaded barrel designed to accommodate one
* Grenade launcher (more precisely, a muzzle device which enables the launching or firing of rifle grenades)
Semi-automatic pistols with detachable magazines and two or more of the following:
* Magazine that attaches outside the pistol grip
* Threaded barrel to attach barrel extender, flash suppressor, handgrip, or silencer
* Barrel shroud that can be used as a hand-hold
* Unloaded weight of 50 oz (1.4 kg) or more
* A semi-automatic version of an automatic firearm
Semi-automatic shotguns with two or more of the following:
* Folding or telescoping stock
* Pistol grip
* Fixed capacity of more than 5 rounds
* Detachable magazine
Wow that was a negative post. I think this gray, gloomy weather is affecting me!!
I lean republican and find obama refreshing as well. Basically, I’m just sick of baby boomers
a golf club could be a deadly weapon, same with a steak knife, We need the govt to start banning everything instead of educating people. Remember, if you treat people like children, they will act like children
bigwindow, 96
you nailed it on the head. its like the UK banning pocket knives recently. i guess they will have to bad kitchen knives next…..
Ann, this one is for you…wallpaper heaven!
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=86170&typ=7&sid=fac26dbebe6c4281b7515ab05c18c20e&pg=2&lid=1095230432&lsn=17&srcnt=39#Detail
safety scissors and ritalin for all!
Ann, you have to launch the tour to get the pics
# 71
What can be more intelligent than the designs of Fred and Barney? Ok, well, maybe those of Ralph and Ed Norton.
What would it take for the banks to be more responsible during the next asset bubble?
Is regulation an answer, or do we need some bank failures?
That’s awesome. I love it. I especially love the wallpaper/paneling combo! Double the fun.
Did you see, there is also another wallpaper by the front door that is kind of peeking out. I also enjoyed the “Not shown is hardwood flooring under carpet.”
# 98 Some of those rooms like a bordello.
question for everyone…my husband feels that the latest news supports a full blown buyout by the gov’t. He also believes the temporary FHA levels will not be temporary, and he see’s the bank’s loaning out a lot…a friend of his makes about 65,000yr and got approved for a 300,000 mortgage. I disagree, riskier loans, and qualification for higher mortgages are coming to an end, and when this initial injection of funds is over, forget about it…does anyone else have thoughts on the loans of the future?
# 103
Or is it really: “Not shown is CAT/DOG URINE STAINED hardwood flooring under carpet.”
Got to love those pics! so worth it, to top it off I am sure the septic is old, and who knows, maybe a hidden underground oil tank. Well worth it!
Sheldon Good & Company Auctions NorthEast LLC (www.sheldongood.com), has announced the March 1 auction of 35 one and two-bedroom condominiums in the community of Summit Park at 412 Morris Ave. in Summit.
Ten of the condominiums will be sold absolute, regardless of price. Originally priced from $549,000, suggested opening bids are from $150,000. A certified or cashier’s check in the amount of $15,000, made out to the seller’s attorney, “Ferro, Labella & Zucker T/A,” is required to buy.
The open outcry auction will be conducted on March 1 at the Hanover Marriott at 1401 Route 10 East, Whippany. Registration begins at 10 a.m. with the auction commencing at 11 a.m. Property inspections: from 11 a.m.-2 p.m. on Feb. 9, 10, 16, 17, 23 and 24 and from 6 p.m. to 8p.m. Feb. 28.
http://c-n.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080206/REALESTATE/80206011
I think higher conforming limits will be here to stay as well, once enacted. Fannie and Freddie want the business. Consumers/voters want cheaper loans. A lot of people want to see housing propped up as much as possible.
Exactly on the urine stained hardwood. You don’t get any points for for hardwood that is not shown.
I’m sure there is other stuff wrong with that too like the septic, I sense a super busy road too. Maybe it’s really a teardown, although I don’t know what a teardown in Hopewell goes for.
I’m having flashbacks of that wallpapered house that we put a bid on that didn’t get accepted. Thanking the real estate gods that those greedy folks turned us down and insulted us from their new home in assisted living. That house is still on the market. What’s fascinating is that they didn’t lower their price at all, even though they counteroffered to us much lower than their current LP. So stupid.
Can’t believe I actually met blog readers while networking during the break.
Ann, it is a nice area, not busy road and high taxes..i don’t think I want to do the septic thing and I am not paying that price either. we are going to watch this spring and still rent, as are in a great hous and town, my 11yo loves it and has made many great friends over the last two years. we are committed to stay in this district and don’t regret holding out.
But as you can see, lowballs are in order, every house looks the same, crappy
woowowwwowww those charts ….very impresive!!!
J.B. meets blog readers. For me, that would be like passing Scooby Doo while walking at the park.
The next wave of write-downs in the financial services sector is going to come from non-U.S. banks. This potential has yet to be realized in a meaningful way.
I mean, one dimensional beings in 3-D….not that readers truly are dog snack eating characters.
#111 grim: What kind of reaction did you get, if you do not mind my asking.
#109 skeptic: That is assuming it props it up., which is more of a hope than a fact.
Also people still have to qualify, which will be much more difficult.
And prices are still unaffordable fro most. In addition I do not see much room for additional declines in 30 yr fixed mtg rates.
Househunter
Interesting, if it’s in a nice area, then it might be a good deal for a fixer upper. Hopewell is a lovely town. Septic is ok, just depends where you are in the tank’s lifecycle.
82: No, better governance by the government is what we need.
Too bad Republicans like Bush confused winning an election with conquering a nation.
3b,
Fan club
JB,
Fan club
And they’re realtors?
If so, cool. They’re realists too.
Can’t believe I actually met blog readers while networking during the break.
And you’re still here to blog about it. That’s a good sign.
Re rate freeze:
Your presumption is that the only parties in the mortage relationship is the bank and the homeowner. It’s not anymore. It’s the CDO/MBS holder and the bank. There’s no way that it’s going to get passed. It’s pure pandering and won’t work in the real world.
Interest Rate Freeze – So much for our free market society.
From MarketWatch
How risky are uninsured bank deposits?
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is gearing up for the prospect of a large bank failure. So double-check that all your deposits, including interest, are well within FDIC insurance limits.
The agency seeks comment by April 14 on a proposed rule designed to help it make a quick insurance determination amid an increasingly complex quagmire of FDIC rules and tough-to-figure-out bank accounts.
One section would place a provisional hold on a fraction – say, 10% or so — of certain account balances at some 159 of the nation’s largest banks. The hold could affect some accounts with balances under $100,000.
If you have uninsured deposits at a bank, should you worry? Possibly. Depositors without FDIC coverage lost money in at least two recent failures — NetBank, Alpharetta, Ga., and Miami Valley Bank, Lakeview, Ohio.
Much more at the link above,
Rich
Ann…it seems you have some experience with septic systems.
I am currently considering a house with septic system and well water. I am a city boy and this scares the hell out of me. Assuming everything passes inspections should I be concered?
I may have a false impression but would my lawn constantly soggy?
Where is Reechard? He started calling the bottom of housing about this time last year saying something about wall-street bonuses.
I think it’s that time of the year for him to surface again.
127
I actually don’t have much experience with septics, but like you, they used to scare me. I’ve learned since then that they are really not that big of a deal, but that eventually you do have to get the tank replaced which can be pricey. I don’t think your lawn would be soggy as long as the area to absorb the water is big enough. Some areas are having problems with them as the area gets more and more developed, the ground has a harder time absorbing the fluid.
Now, on the other hand, well water scares me, because I know nothing about that!
Hey can anyone here explain what experience Hillary has? I think she stated she has 34 years of experience and I don’t see it.
“Hey can anyone here explain what experience Hillary has?”
jam,
She traded pork bellies?
[131] Ok, for real. I know she’s in the Senate and i know she was the First Lady (maybe that counts for something – so give her that) – Is she counting the time she was the First Lady of Arkansas? Student government? Balancing the family checkbook?
[127] Septic – very expensive to replace/ who wants that cr*p in their yard (front yard is better than rear – so you can develop the back yard by expanding the house or adding a pool) eventually a sewer system will be installed and you will have to pay for the hook up add another 10k or so for that.
#130 Jam
From NYT
In 1974 (about 34 years ago), Hilary Clinton was a member of the impeachment inquiry staff for the House Judiciary Committee during the Watergate scandal
Hello all. I dont really post much on here, but I lurk pretty much everyday.
I have a question for the agents on the board about the salesperson licensing test. I will be taking the test in the next few weeks, and could appreciate any input on how difficult the test is so I can schedule it appropriately. I am an attorney, so I waived through the educational requirement of becoming an agent, but I am still going to have to study in order to pass. How much time should I put in? Is the test difficult? I do practice real estate law, so Im familiar with most of the concepts on the test. Im just curious as to how difficult the questions are so I don’t overstudy for a test that a monkey could pass, or understudy for a difficult, focused exam.
Thanks for any input.
jam,
She also joined a partnership with James and Susan McDougal to buy land from the Whitewater Dev. Corp.
130 , “Hey can anyone here explain what experience Hillary has? I think she stated she has 34 years of experience and I don’t see it.”
…..its a NATIONAL secret ,,maybe sale of cigars???
As a moderate conservative, I agree with many that Obama is an intriguing candidate that I could almost vote for. The fact that he is not a baby boomer is very appealing, but he is still out peddling the same old liberal victimization rhetoric and policies from a generation ago.I could even be convinced to go along with him as President if the congress wasn’t also Democrat controlled. The past 8 years have proven that single party government is the real disaster, both nationally and here in NJ. Obama w/ a Republican House and a near 50:50 senate would be OK, Obama w/ a Democratic congress would be indistinguishable from Ted Kennedy or any other token liberal, IMHO. We would have a great and inspirational orator – but much higher taxes, more unionization, less choice in schools, a weaker military, trial lawyer supreme court justices, and a heaping pile of big government nannyism to name just a few. I’m not yet willing to trade all that for a charming speaker.
120: Jamey, no..big govt is needed to protect us from ourselves. We need mortgage bailouts and socialized healthcare.
Kurt (83)-
“I’m still sitting on the sidelines as a renter due to the out of control prices, so I have reason to not shed a tear if banks go under and dreamers get kicked out of their over-bought homes.”
So, why do you think a gubmint program to bail out people who prevented/are preventing you from becoming a homeowner is such a good thing? Any “solution” to this problem is only likely to make things worse and spawn hundreds of unintended consequences.
They could freeze rates, reduce them, take the interest down to 0. No matter what, those bad mortgages will never be made current. The best outcome for all is that lenders foreclose and debtors move on.
127 septic info:
New systems need to be approved by DEP. There is some info on their website:
http://www.state.nj.us/dep/
Where we are (cabin upstate NY, not primary residence) – septic needs to be 100 ft from well if flat terraine – 200 ft if down hill. You need permits and approvals for all this, becaue you have to worry about your neighbor’s well/septic location as well as your own. Generally surface water wells are frowned upon, and digging is expensive if a well runs dry. We have a 35 ft surface water well that is not attached to anything. We will use it, because we’re at the top of a ridge (nothing above us to pollute the surface water). I forget the cost per foot to dig, but we would have to dig down really far (again on ridge), so a new well would cost us $15k min.
Where I grew up we had city water and cesspools (no sewer connection). Cesspools are still around, but are an environmental ‘no no.’ Big thing to watch with any system is gray water – overuse will overflow your system. Ground drainage is important, above comment about front yard is good, because even if you have no plans to develop your backyard (pool etc.) your neighbors backyard development could drastically effect the drainage of your system.
I would have both systems inspected before purchasing, and for sure have the water checked. If they have to pour bleach into the well to kill something you should have it re-checked to be sure ‘the something’ did not grow back. Some places will pour in bleach and test just to get the OK.
The town we’re renting in now just (
I never paid much attention to it in the day, but what was the deal with the Clinton Whitewater scandal? Wasn’t she involved in that?
vodka (93)-
“Colt AR-15, H&K G36E, TEC-9, all AK-47s, and Uzis…”
Hey, where did you get hold of my Christmas wish list?
continued..
The town we’re renting in now just (less than 5 years) put in water and sewers (mandatory). That’s to the tune of $400/quarter at min usage. Friends still use their wells to keep usage down for any/all gardening/outdoor use. It’s painful, but is probably worse for people that recently upgraded either system.
D’OH!
Freefall again.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az0IUlQylOrI&refer=home
Macy’s to cut 2300
This is on top of their early out packages last year.
Jinkees.
102
I think, without question, that we need some bank failures.
I also think that, absent government intervention, we are certain to get some bank failures.
BUYER BEWARE!!!!
Just got off the phone with Ken Stout the Chief Investigator for the NJ Real Estate Commission who told me point blank that he will NEVER bring a case against a real estate agent who violated ethics. This in response to a complaint by myself and two other real estate agents for a clear violation of the fiduciary responsibility by this other agent. I guess we have another wall of silence. Good Luck trying to buy a house!!!
108 sync
Great stuff!
“Originally priced from $549,000, suggested opening bids are from $150,000. A certified or cashier’s check in the amount of $15,000, made out to the seller’s attorney, “Ferro, Labella & Zucker T/A,” is required to buy.”
I noticed, though, that they misspelled Whipperney.
So the opening bid is much more likely to be $15K.
grim (111)-
Might want to have security escort you out of there.
plankton (135)-
If you can do solve for x math, all you need to study are the minutiae of licensing and things like how many members of the RE Commission there are and how they get appointed. Test is mostly about memorization of useless facts.
“BC Bob Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
jam,
She also joined a partnership with James and Susan McDougal to buy land from the Whitewater Dev. Corp.”
She probably wouldn’t list that as “experience”, however, since she lost money on that one.
She was a partner at a corporate law firm for a few years, of course.
Clot and Kurt
I can understand the benefits of short sales for people who were speculators or for a second home. But with a primary residence wouldn’t it be better for them just to stop paying the mortgage and keep their money for 6-12 months until a sheriff finally kicks them out? Especially all of the subprimers who already have bad credit scores.
If you do not care about your FICO why bother with a short sale? Why bother negotiating with a bank, mortgage broker or realtor who they probably blame for getting them in their mess in the first place. After all, it is much easier to blame someone else for your mistakes. There are probably hundreds of thousands, if not millions, who echo the sentiments of that 60 minutes couple who were willing to go into foreclosure if the bank did not give them what they wanted.
In the end I just don’t understand in many cases what real incentive there would be for a short sale. You are not getting any money. You are probably not going to buy another house for some time. So your credit is bad for a couple of years – they can live payment free for all those months in exchange. And since these people are not wanting to sell – they are having to sell there is not incentive to make it easy for the realtor. For many people it is probably more financial prudent, more convenient, and alot less work to allow the foreclosure.
A few final questions –
1) Who picks the realtors for short-sales?
2) Do mortgage payments still have to be made during the short sale process? I assume yes but just want to be sure. Or is it negotiated individually by bank?
3) Other than credit ratings what harm comes to the foreclosed persons?
139:
Experience of late has suggested to me the following: When you get Republican candidates who want to govern in the worst way, you get Republican office-holders who govern, in the worst way.
My point, Big, is this:
Clinton’s FEMA: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_08/007014.php
Bush’s FEMA: http://www.yuricareport.com/Disaster/FEMAunderBushTrailOfCorruption.html
srufaculty.sru.edu/mark.daniels/pa%20times.htm
Government executed competently works. Unless one is some kind of delusional Paultard (not saying that you are), the gubbmint ain’t going away, so why not demand that it work more efficiently and effectively?
Or a third option, if you prefer, is just to complain. Po-TAY-to/po-TAH-to.
well, I’ve been watching new listings with interest this week, thinking that sellers would finally get smart. unfortunately, new listings are priced basically the same as all of the other overpriced crap that’s been rotting on the market for the last year. it’s as if the target is to match the other asking prices, not sell.
#156 skeptic: Patience. You cannot force sellers to lower their prices, frustrating as it is.
“SS Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
I never paid much attention to it in the day, but what was the deal with the Clinton Whitewater scandal? Wasn’t she involved in that?”
No.
“If you do not care about your FICO why bother with a short sale? ”
Because in some, but not all, states, the bank can still come after you for the unpaid principal even if you’ve been foreclosed, unless you declare bankruptcy.
# 134 “PGC Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
#130 Jam
From NYT
In 1974 (about 34 years ago), Hilary Clinton was a member of the impeachment inquiry staff for the House Judiciary Committee during the Watergate scandal”
As was Fred Thompson.
“it’s as if the target is to match the other asking prices, not sell.”
Hence the increase in inventory and drop in sales.
We have a friend who lives in Tampa that bought in late 2005. Although she has excellent credit and is on time with her mortgage payments, she is not able to sell her home since the value had dropped about $50K from when she brought it and does not have that kind of cash to bring to the closing to pay the bank.
She’ll be up here in New York in a few weeks as she has an excellent job opportunity. I’m going to encourage her to take out a second loan to sell her home and then rent when she moves up here. Anyone else have any better ideas?
160 Shore
Good trivia. Fred was the go-to guy for Nixon in fighting a rear-guard action.
Obviously, that didn’t work.
Skeptic 127 I have had septic & wells for 10 years.Biggest ? is how old is the system.
A really good system can last 30 -35 years,but its always a crap shoot.Old ones do well new ones crap out.You will have it inspected but that is very subjective my home failed for one thing then passed then failed for another in the end it was just fine.Also the inspectors are the guys who fix them most of the time, don’t get one of those,it will fail.Get an inspector who does only that ,hard to find but a good move.The lawn will be just fine unless installed wrong & that would have created a prob by now in the house you posted.Wells have never been a prob where I live the pump may burn out but not a big deal.Some places have low water table & you can’t get water in dry summer months.This is rare as far as I know.When was the house built & if old was any work done on septic is your ?.Where I live now houses are about 30 years old when they sell about 50 % require seller and or buyer to replace septic.
Kelly (154)-
You’re right. And, that’s why many people are simply mailing keys back to the bank. You have to be interested in preserving your credit to even bother pursuing a short sale.
As to your questions:
1) The underwater homeowner picks the agent. The agent then usually becomes the point man in the deal for all involved, including the lender.
2) Technically, mortgage payments should always be made, but practically, it’s the failure to make payments that triggers the need for a short sale. Most homeowners don’t realize they need to take drastic steps until they either recieve a Notice of Default or a Lis Pendens. The most cruelly ironic situation is when a borrower is current on payments, but realizes trouble is coming in a few weeks or months: the borrower will often call the lender, who will then tell the borrower to quit making payments so that a mitigation process can be started.
3) The credit hit is devastating, although credit can start to be rebuilt within 24 months of the foreclosure. The foreclosure will still stay on a borrower’s record for 7-10 years (depending on the agency). However, the “collateral damage” flowing from foreclosure- much of it personal and emotional in nature- cannot be minimized; I could go on for quite a while on that topic.
patient [158],
???
Bill and Hilary were partners with the McDougal’s.
#161
If she stops paying her mortgage the bank might allow a short sale and forgive her the money owed at closing. In the end the bank does better then if they had to foreclose. She would be responsible for the income tax on ‘the gift’ from the mortgage company. Rub is that you have to show you can’t pay before the bank will negotiate a short sale agreement.
#159
So, you charge up those cards, move all your money (unpaid mortgage payments) into retirement accounts, let the foreclosure happen and declare away..
FYI, companies can refuse to hire you on the grounds of bad credit.
Thanks clot, this is exactly the type of information I’m looking for.
plankton (135)-
If you can do solve for x math, all you need to study are the minutiae of licensing and things like how many members of the RE Commission there are and how they get appointed. Test is mostly about memorization of useless facts.
Well so far no one has come close to supporting her assertion of 34 years of “experience.”
Lone purple dot question..
If sales are down, then commissions are down. Why then aren’t realtors putting some real pressure on sellers to price homes realistically? How much of a drop do they need to see before they abandon “an over priced listing is better then no listing?”
#168 jam
Maybe that’s because this is a real estate blog…
“So, you charge up those cards, move all your money (unpaid mortgage payments) into retirement accounts, let the foreclosure happen and declare away..”
[166]
Any wonder why this country is going down the tubes? How about standing up and taking responsibility for your idiocy?
#130
And lets not forget that she wrote a few books including:
Dear Socks, Dear Buddy: Kids’ Letters to the First Pets
by Hillary Rodham Clinton
BC 165
“Bill and Hilary were partners with the McDougal’s.”
I guess it depends how you define “involved”. They got scammed by McDougal, but they were completely cleared of all wrongdoing (on multiple occasions, in fact).
the lawyer-haters in the room will get a kick out of this video:
http://www.kentucky.com/454/story/308523.html
(note this is not comletely OT as, after you’ve finished watching the video, you can shop for Kentucky RE via the links at the left).
stu (161)-
Arson?
#171
I hope you don’t think I’m in that boat.
wifey (166)-
Deficiencies on short sales are not taxable as income anymore. Dubya signed new law in December.
#173 – of course Slick Willie was cleared, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t involved. They’re both slimy politicians.
When they were carpetbagging in NY & looking for a house, they looked at one in which my x-girlfriend’s uncle was the architect/owner. They met with the Clintons – loved Bill, hated Hil. Said she was an absolute jerk.
Needless to say they didn’t buy the house because it was located in a valley and the SS didn’t approve.
patient,
Unfortunately, many claim they were scammed when their investments goes sour. A good # of today’s homeowners are claiming the same. I get it, they lost $ in Whitewater and they were scammed. On the flip side, Hilary turns 1K into 100k trading cattle futures. I guess she wasn’t scammed there. Just an expert regarding cattle on feed reports?
#177
Knew it was proposed, didn’t know it got approved. Thanks
179 BC
Why not? I don’t think the cattle futures trading was ever even investigated – I’m not sure what she is supposed to have done wrong; in fact, I’ve never even heard of any particular allegation.
In any event, it’s not Whitewater.
Usually if you’re surrounded by dirt chances are you’re going to get dirty! I don’t trust the Clintons one bit.
Short sale shows paid in full. Foreclosure is foreclosure it is a 10 year black mark. You can have a 750 fico and the black mark will still keep you from getting certain breaks in the credit world. Your credit is shot after a short, but is easier to get up from than a foreclosure.
Clot, as you said I could go on for quite a while on that topic. I could also, from a been there done that perspective. There is an ebb and flow of emotions ranging from greif to relief. However having said that knowing what I know now regarding the difference between short sale and forclosure, I would go with foreclosure.
KL
patient [181],
Let’s start with margin. How do you trade multiple contracts, cattle, with a 1K account? Walk into any brokerage house and get that deal. Let me know how successful you are. Do you think she possibly used the same broker as DT? Maybe a Memphis office?
Of course the CFTC couldn’t prove any wrongdoing. That’s OK, it’s filled with slime.
“Usually if you’re surrounded by dirt chances are you’re going to get dirty!”
SS,
The dirt go to jail, or are unable to talk, Vince Foster. It’s funny how everybody else connected went down. Just a coincidence?
The CFTC didn’t prove anything. They didn’t try.
BC – you think Hillary murdered Vince Foster?
If your are so misguided to think that any of these politicians are honest you have another thing coming. I would bet even the all holy Obama has skeletons. He seems very similar to Cory Booker, which as it turns out is a bad thing. Like Booker, Obama is smart and gives this air of honesty and reform, but I fear that similarly he will be unable to get anything done and is only concerned with his political career.
Unfortunately none of the selected candidates actually aspire to become president because of a desire to serve the public or fix the problems. Realistically the only people who believe that are people like Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, or John Edwards. Apparently people like that are unelectable, politics aside I think these people believe in what they are trying to do. Personally I think even with all of Hillary’s short comings the Dems would be smart to have her be the candidate. Realistically she has the Clinton political machine behind her and stands the best chance of surviving the messy election. Also in terms of running the country I don’t see any liberal action from Clinton, I think they’ll put the country’s finances back in order, try to pass some ridiculously crazy health care plan with no chance of winning just so they could claim they tried for national healthcare. I think in the immediate term we need someone who can run the government and knows who to get solutions from. Hillary because of Bill knows these people, Obama will be like Booker go to some smarty pants from somewhere who doesn’t understand the real world and inevitably screw stuff up.
So while I ramble now it is important to note that to even make it through the primaries this far Obama has had to compromise himself. Guys like Edwards or Paul get shut out of popular media because their ideas scare the wealthy in this country.
Like Obama said today – if Clinton gets the nod the Reps will have a dump truck load of dirt on her. That’s when Bloomberg/Hagel come in and save the day…..kind of like the ambiguously gay duo from SNL, only without the gay.
170 bmw wrote”Maybe that’s because this is a real estate blog…”
Go up and re-read the line under the header at the top of the page.
Clot – I see the “gubmint’s” (as you so John Waynesly put it) role as a facilitator in this whole mess.
– Help banks determine which loans are likely to go into defualt
– Provide personal finance education and free financial advice/counseling to everyone, especially people facing the prospect of foreclosure
– Pressure banks to ensure their balance sheets are veracious
– Heavily fine/revoke license/horsewhip any mortgage broker or realator who has had more than 15% of the ARM loans they issued or buyer’s they represented go into foreclosure.
Do you agree that there should have been regulations in place 5 or even 10 years ago preventing liar loans or hidden language on pre-pay penalties, or would this have been too much gubmint intervention for you?
As far as I know, Hillary’s plan only applies to owner occupied homes (more reasonable than freezing all rates, including flippers’, no?)
The 5 year freeze on resets and 90 day moratorium on foreclosures are starting numbers for a negotiation, and may not ever happen at all. If it does the truly hard-luck people (health probs, job loss ect) who are hard-working go-getters (who are mainly guilty of picking a bad time to buy a house i.e. 2005-2006) could use this time to get back on their feet. Losers will simply get a few extra months to live in their McMansion and the bank loses a few extra bucks.
jcer, SS, you guys appear to have assumed that I’m supporting Hillary, or even that I think she’s some sort of paragon of honesty.
If that’s the case, you’re mistaken.
jcer wrote”Realistically the only people who believe that are people like Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, or John Edwards. Apparently people like that are unelectable”
here here. Populists and progressives can’t compete at all against the might of big business. One of the (few) things I feel guilty about is not working for either Kucinick’s or Edward’s campaign.
jcer
You think the ambulance chaser Edwards cares about helping people? You’re out of your mind. Ron Paul – yes, the little alien – yes, but not Edwards (at least in my opinion).
These big Political Machines that you talk about need oil to run on, and I think that’s running out.
kl (183)-
“…knowing what I know now regarding the difference between short sale and foreclosure, I would go with foreclosure.”
Sadly, it’s a better deal for many people.
“Sadly, it’s a better deal for many people.”
It is, and I don’t understand why this fact is so controversial.
I’m just responding to your posts – I’m not assuming or inferring anything.
“Hey can anyone here explain what experience Hillary has?”
She doesn’t need a map to navigate through the White House.
is this wishful thinking, or is McCain the ideal person to school Americans on the idea of personal responsibility? He can say, Look, I got beaten daily for 5.5 yrs in a Vietnamese prison– your zero equity having @ss can suffer the indignity of going back to renting. I didn’t asking my dad the admiral to rescue me, so you don’t need the government to rescue you from the hole you dug for yourself.
I think that’s what we need– a really tough father figure right now to talk some sense into people.
#190 kurt
‘k
Jamey Says:
“IMO, It takes a certain type of megalomaniac to state definitively, “I alone have the requisite experience to be the ‘leader of the free world.’” And, yet, running for president demands that in spades.”
The kind of people who would make exemplary Presidents are generally not crazy enough to actually attempt running.
It’s the weak point in the system.
BC (185)-
“Maybe a Memphis office?”
Not our pal Willard’s.
NJpatient #160
I heard this is rarely done. Especially with all of the extra court preceding to obtain the monies. And with the potential of huge numbers foreclosings are banks going to get the returns on these extra legal fees. And what are the numbers of people who will actually pay these judgements?
Recently I saw some charts with numbers of upside-down mortgages for every 10% housing decline. If any knows the location please post the link. Top the upside-down numbers to all the option ARMs that require full payment when the homeowners owe more than x% of the value of the houses there will be an explosion of people who can’t make payments.
Or cases like those from this business article
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_02/b4066046083770.htm?chan=search
where financially it does not make sense for the banks to foreclose on the property. They send out the foreclosure papers – run some cost/benefits numbers and realize it is better not to foreclose.
Another question – How are foreclosed properties done on the banks balance sheets as compared to mortgages?
Kurt (190)-
Now I get it…you’re high on cough syrup (my responses in parenthesis):
Clot – I see the “gubmint’s” (as you so John Waynesly put it) role as a facilitator in this whole mess.
– Help banks determine which loans are likely to go into defualt (great…an organization that doesn’t understand the concept of negative numbers “helping” banks)
– Provide personal finance education and free financial advice/counseling to everyone, especially people facing the prospect of foreclosure (barn door open, horses gone)
– Pressure banks to ensure their balance sheets are veracious (that’ll work great, especially during an election/fundraising cycle)
– Heavily fine/revoke license/horsewhip any mortgage broker or realator who has had more than 15% of the ARM loans they issued or buyer’s they represented go into foreclosure (NAR and banking industry will buy off or assassinate any member of Congress who touches this one)
“(barn door open, horses gone)”
LOL
“- Pressure banks to ensure their balance sheets are veracious (that’ll work great, especially during an election/fundraising cycle)”
I think 302/404 certification is going to be a great deal of fun this 10-K season
Kelly (202)-
I’ve never seen an attempt at obtaining a deficiency judgement in NJ. The foreclosure ends the matter.
In non-judicial foreclosure states, I’ve heard deficiency judgements are much more common. What a killer for a borrower.
202 Kelly
I think you’re right, although I’ll let Clot/KL confirm; I was merely observing that there is legal recourse in many cases for the banks, even if it doesn’t make economic sense to pursue.
Clot #165
Is the foreclosure that much worse than a short sale? Both ways the person is forced to leave their house. One they have to show it to potential owners – which is also hard and stressful. If the owner is already missed payments their credit rating has been harmed – is foreclosure that much worse? Other than staying on your record staying on your record for 7-10 years – which bankruptcy will also do.
Clot #165
I should have said –
Is the foreclosure that much worse emotionally than a short sale?
200:
I just wish we could go back to the electoral model America had in the Early Republic period: To judge the prospective candidates by their ninja skills.
#209
wouldn’t change a thing. hillary’s been a successful ninja for 35 yrs.
Kelly (208)-
Depends on how sociopathic the borrower is.
Some borrowers will do anything to make restitution, even if it’s taking a short sale over jingle mail. We all know people who go nuts over as much as a day-late bill payment, so you can imagine what an impending foreclosure could do to someone like that.
On the other hand, the current market is full of almost professional-grade deadbeats who knew they were buying a call option on a house, understand that the bet didn’t come in, and shrug it all off as no big whoop.
Jamey (209)-
I’d settle for a Hillary/Obama pistol duel at ten paces.
I do not support Hillary, and don’t think that anyone here does. But versus Obama as president it seems to me that she is preferable. Mcain might be better but I am waiting to see during the election. I have heard the ambulance chaser before but I really think Edwards wants to change things, does want to help people, I think he is not as “populist” as he claims and was trying to use it as political capital by differentiating himself. My reasoning is that if he didn’t he wouldn’t have run his campaign this way. But don’t get me wrong like Obama he is an unknown entity.
Anyway this is a real estate blog. So in any event , no bailout should occur, making everyone pay for the mistakes made by others is not right. I have no problem with the government helping people but I think it is important that they try to help themselves first. Let the people suffer the consequences of their actions, the government didn’t pay the shareholders of pets.com why pay the homeowners. People got a little to free with money, they need to learn it is not just a payment you are borrowing hundreds of thousands/millions of dollars that you will eventually need to pay back.
Another big question with all of the defaults, because of the whole MBS/CDO process has it become difficult to sell the underlying mortgage before lis pendence is filed? An off topic question because someone I know is trying to buy a mortgage in default so he can foreclose on the property, from a flipper of course. The banks don’t want to sell in the mean time the property is being damaged,no electric, roof leaking, overgrown landscaping etc. All the while the foreclosure process seems to move at a glacial rate. It seems the default notice is served and it takes well over a year to get to reo. It looks like banks aren’t even filing to foreclose on every defaulted loan. I would think that either the loan or the property would be liquidated. Does the MBS structure provide the room to sell the mortgage at the banks discretion or must they forclose as provided by the offering of the MBS.
Clotpoll Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Jamey (209)-
“I’d settle for a Hillary/Obama pistol duel at ten paces.”
Couldn’t we substitute for n*de mud wrestling? Rematch to take place in jello.
“BC – you think Hillary murdered Vince Foster?”
patient,
It was determined that he committed suicide.
clot – I wish, but my drug of choice is only legal in Amsterdam, and I ain’t there right now (or have a plan B at the moment…)
Clever responses – but you didn’t answer the question about whether the gubbymint should play (or should have played) a role in preventing the spread of no-doc and/or hidden penalty loans. I believe I read somewhere that this can pretty much be pinned to Bill Clinton caving to the finacial powers who cried that it would dampen homeownership, hurt their bottom line, bring about armageddon blah blah blah.
and hey, I said that those points I listed were what I thought the grubbermint’s role should be – not at all what I thought it WOULD or COULD be.
jcer – I kind of liked Edwards. He never hit the right pitch though, and he could have by focusing less on “the poor” and more on peoples desire not to be one of “the poor”.
That said, Elizabeth Edwards would have absolutely made the classiest first lady. Love her, so sorry about her health issues.
Very very glad that there is no possibility of Judith Nathan as FL – THAT just scared me.
“Not our pal Willard’s.”
Clot,
I didn’t say that.
Kucinich (sp?) and Edwards lined up better with my political positions also, and I was disappointed that they never really gained any traction. I truly think the media was to blame for that one, as Black Man vs. Woman for president makes for way better headlines.
The middle-aged white dudes were too bland to stand a chance.
http://hoboken411.com/?p=10473&cp=1#comments
I loved Edwards’ debate comment “nothing to do with race/gender, but I’m the only electable person up here.”
He had my vote until he stepped aside.
215 BC
Well parried. :)
doh!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23031776
CHI FI 223 Is that legal,I remember a story
out of Texas guy got in trouble for takeing pesos.
It was determined that he committed suicide.
A non-answer a politician would envy.
Kurt (216)-
Yes, gubmint should’ve played a role, but any chance of that died with the advent of Bush’s “ownership society”.
Let’s blame the flippers.
“occupancy fraud”
Speculators May Have Accelerated Housing Downturn
Rising Number of Defaults
Also Could Complicate
Effort to Help Homeowners
By RUTH SIMON and MICHAEL CORKERY
February 6, 2008; Page B8
As lenders pore over their defaulted mortgages, they are learning that the number of people who bought homes as investments is much greater than previously believed.
Such borrowers turn up frequently in analyses of loans that defaulted within months after origination. In many cases, these speculators lied on loan applications, saying they intended to live in the homes in order to obtain more favorable loan terms or failed to provide the requested information.
Roughly 20% of mortgage fraud involved “occupancy fraud,” or borrowers falsely claiming they intended to live in a property, according to an analysis by BasePoint Analytics, a provider of fraud-detection solutions in Carlsbad, Calif. Another study, by Fitch Ratings, looked at 45 subprime loans that defaulted within the first 12 months even though the borrowers had good credit scores. In two-thirds of the cases, borrowers said they intended to live in the property but never moved in.
Some home builders have come to similar conclusions: They now believe that as many as one in four home buyers in some markets were investors during the boom, up from their earlier estimates of one in 10 buyers.
The high number of hidden speculators helps explain some of the problems roiling the housing and mortgage markets. The loans backing these speculator purchases turned out to be riskier than ratings agencies and investors who bought mortgage-backed securities once thought. Investors tend to be more likely than borrowers who live in the homes to walk away from their purchases when home prices fall. “We couldn’t understand what was driving so many borrowers to default so early in the life of their mortgage,” said Glenn Costello, a managing director at Fitch.
Much of the occupancy fraud was concentrated in markets such as Florida, Nevada and Arizona, where prices were appreciating by double-digit percentages annually, said Kevin Kanouff, president of Denver-based Clayton Fixed-Income Services, a unit of Clayton Holdings Inc. that reviews about seven million loans a month on behalf of investors.
In Las Vegas, as many as 60% of the foreclosures last year involved non-owner-occupied homes, according to Applied Analysis, a real-estate-research firm. The Las Vegas firm compared the addresses of the borrowers with the locations of their homes. Where the addresses didn’t match likely indicated a speculator.
The temptation to lie can be substantial and may have been encouraged, or at least tolerated, by mortgage brokers and real-estate agents eager to close a home sale. Standards tend to be tougher for borrowers purchasing investment properties, since these loans are considered riskier.
Lenders typically allowed investors to finance no more than 90% of a home’s value, but if borrowers said they planned to live in the property, they could buy a home with no money down, even if they had scuffed credit and didn’t document their income, said Pete Ogilvie, a mortgage broker in Santa Cruz, Calif., and president of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers.
[Graphic]
In the early years of the housing boom, demand for homes rose because of strong economic fundamentals and low interest rates, which made it more affordable for a large swath of Americans to buy homes. But as home prices began to soar, hordes of investors jumped in.
Once there was a whiff that prices could no longer rise, this speculative demand evaporated, sending prices falling in some markets. The housing boom would eventually have cooled, anyway, but investors amplified the boom and bust.
Rising defaults among speculators may complicate government efforts to assist home buyers. The Bush administration has said it wants to help only homeowners facing foreclosure, not speculators. But foreclosures of investor-owned properties can create ripple effects in neighborhoods, pushing down prices and making it tougher for people who live in those communities to refinance or sell their homes if they can’t make their mortgage payments.
Lenders and builders said they tried to weed out speculators during the boom. To discourage flipping, some builders put clauses into contracts stating that investors who resold their homes soon after they bought had to give up some of their profits.
“We had people at the end signing four-page documents, ‘I am not an investor. I am not an investor. I am not an investor,’ ” Robert Toll, chief executive of luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc., said at a UBS AG conference in 2006. And the person “turned out to be an investor, of course.”
While it is true that occupancy fraud can sometimes be difficult to detect, fraud experts said lenders and builders could have vetted their borrowers more closely. Pulling a borrower’s credit report, for instance, may reveal multiple mortgages. In other cases, appraisal reports will sometimes indicate that a tenant lives in the property, and Internet searches can also turn up indications that a borrower owns multiple homes.
“There’s a lot of telltale signs,” said Frank McKenna, chief fraud strategist for BasePoint, which develops computerized fraud-detection tools. But “the industry was very focused on volume,” he said.
Write to Ruth Simon at ruth.simon@wsj.com and Michael Corkery at michael.corkery@wsj.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120225852189145889.html?mod=todays_us_marketplace
“chicagofinance Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
doh!”
Oh my sweet jeebus.
“Speculators May Have Accelerated Housing Downturn”
“Consumption of 750ml Bottle of Ketel May Have Contributed to Drunkenness”
California Bumper sticker….
Vote For Monica’s Boyfriend’s Wife
I have noticed two short sale ads in my middle/upper class neighborhood this week. Maybe we’re only at the beginning of the downturn.
JBJB 231 You got it only ths beginning.
Now I’ll be singing Chicago all night.
The foreclosures are a comin to every neighborhood near you, I am seeing them from the poor urban areas, to rich urban areas, to rich suburban areas, to poor suburban areas, foreclosures where 300k was owed and where 1.5 million was owed. Speculators created demand where there was none and it has finally caught up. The 400k shack in marginal towns should have been an indicator and to those of us on this board it was.
1) surprised by all the hillary bashing … she’s got my vote
2) wife is a hardcore republican and she’s surprised to hear republicans on this board backing Barry O
3) still can’t believe the Suns traded for Shaq
4) just read that ‘Death of Vince Foster’ entry on wiki … what a joke
5) someone mentioned the other day that maybe Google was buyable at 500 … with no evidence to back it, i think i’ll wait for 400
Ina 400 k loan, you pay like 2300 a month, it is very cheap. It used to be like 3000 a month
Skunky,
It’s not very cheap.
Before the bubble you could buy for 200K what it now takes 400k to buy. Even though rates were higher, you got the same house for 1450/month versus 2300/month today.
So, while nominal income has grown by 24% since 2000, the monthly payment on the same exact house (under your very cheap scenario) has grown by 60%.
This is too depressing. I’m going on vacation! Just got a good deal from Club ABC. ( http://www.clubabc.com -if you are interested)
Great website!! Keep up the good work!!