This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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From the WSJ:
Credit-Card Pinch Leads Consumers To Rein In Spending
By ROBIN SIDEL, SUDEEP REDDY AND JANE J. KIM
February 8, 2008; Page A1
America’s love affair with credit cards may be headed for the rocks.
Credit-card delinquencies are rising across the nation, a sign that some Americans are at the end of their rope financially. And these mounting delinquencies, in turn, have prompted banks to tighten lending standards, keeping people who have maxed out their cards from finding new sources of credit.
The result could be a sharp pullback in consumer spending that would further weaken the slowing U.S. economy.
Such a pullback may already be taking shape. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve reported an abrupt slowdown in consumers’ credit-card borrowings. In December, Americans had $944 billion in total revolving debt, most of it on credit cards, a seasonally adjusted annualized increase of 2.7%. That was off sharply from seasonally adjusted growth rates of 13.7% in November and 11.1% in October. And it reflects the volatility in consumers’ spending habits as economic growth sputters.
Sinking home prices have made it much harder to convert home equity into cash for living expenses. At the same time, plastic has pushed into every corner of American life, making new inroads that worry some economists and card issuers.
In past economic downturns, Americans used credit cards mainly for discretionary purchases, such as furniture, appliances and jewelry. Now, however, many of them regularly whip out plastic to pay for groceries, gasoline and other everyday necessities. Credit-card issuers won’t disclose exact figures, but they say it is evident that a growing percentage of card volume is for basic purchases. Many issuers even dole out extra rewards for such transactions.
Evidence is mounting that the plastic-fueled spending spree won’t last. In December, an average of 7.6% of credit-card loans were either at least 60 days delinquent or had gone into default, up from 6.4% a year earlier, according to research firm RiskMetrics Group. The analysis includes a broad swath of more than $200 billion of credit-card loans that are sold off to investors by major card issuers like Citigroup Inc., Capital One Financial Corp., American Express Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Recession Is Now an Even Bet as Spending Slows
A U.S. recession is now an even bet as job losses and the housing contraction jeopardize the longest- ever expansion in consumer spending, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
…
“We’re seeing a real squeeze on the consumer,” said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York, the world’s largest reinsurer. “We’re in, or on the brink of, a recession. The Fed will keep cutting rates to help it be a short and shallow one.”
…
“We’re on the cusp of a recession,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. “Support from the labor market is starting to erode. The consumer is definitely in for a period of weakness.”
…
“If the job market is drying up, which seems to be the case, consumers have nothing going for them,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York.
From the Record:
35 Bergen towns targeted for mergers
Bergen County Executive Dennis McNerney called Thursday for a dramatic reorganization of local government, urging the state to encourage — with financial incentives — the merger of towns with fewer than 10,000 residents.
By that standard, half the municipalities in Bergen County — 35 — would be eligible to become, say, Allenwick, Demarkill or Ho-Ho River.
“The surest way to significantly lower homeowners’ property taxes is to merge small towns and reduce administrative overhead,” McNerney said in his State of the County address before a small crowd of county officials and state legislators at the EMS Training Center in Paramus.
Nevertheless, he acknowledged that merging towns is a volatile and emotional proposition — fraught with political danger for the mayor or council members who suggest it.
From MarketWatch:
Justice Dept. widens mortgage probe, seeks SEC Merrill info
Federal criminal prosecutors are expanding their look into Wall Street firms’ mortgage businesses, and have asked the SEC for the information it has collected on Merrill Lynch, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday. The report cited people familiar with the situation. The report called the Justice Department’s interest “preliminary,” but said its sources told the paper the U.S. attorney’s office request could be a precursor to a criminal investigation. Last week, authorities in Massachusetts charged Merrill and two of its employees with fraud in connection with securities it sold to the City of Springfield that collapsed in value shortly after they were sold.
#1 – Grim – “Now, however, many of them regularly whip out plastic to pay for groceries, gasoline, and other everyday necessities.”
CC and GIFT CARDS as well -In the line at Target last weekend… The lady in front of me was using a GIFT CARD to purchase household cleaning supplies, toothpaste etc. Didn’t Wal Mart report GIFT CARDS being used to purchase food?
Probably not the scenario they envisioned when all of those gift cards were sold at Christmas.
From Forbes:
KB Home customers sue over pricing
Two California couples are suing KB Home and mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp., claiming the companies schemed with real estate appraisers to inflate prices paid for homes as the housing market began to tank.
…
The plaintiffs, Deborah and Lonnie Bolden, and David and Dolores Contreras, all residents of Live Oak in Northern California, are seeking unspecified restitution as well as compensatory and punitive damages.
They also want class-action status to cover KB Home customers in California who obtained financing through Countrywide and closed on their purchases between Aug. 1, 2005 and July 31, 2006.
In the lawsuit, the couples claim prospective homebuyers were presented with false or misleading data on previously sold homes in order to justify higher asking prices on new purchases.
KB customers were presented with comparable sales data from homes that were dissimilar, nowhere near the KB property being sold, or from sales that had not yet closed, according to the lawsuit.
When independent appraisers evaluated comparable home sales, the values were between 10 percent and 15 percent lower than the price the plaintiffs paid for their KB homes, the lawsuit claims.
‘People like Debbie Bolden lost up to 15 percent before they ever opened their front doors,’ plaintiffs’ attorney Peter Fredman said in a statement. ‘We believe that these practices propped up falling prices into the summer of 2006 at least.’
The complaint suggests the alleged scheme likely affected other KB customers.
‘Inflated closed-sale prices resulting from the fraudulent appraisals, in turn, infected subsequent appraisals and valuations, allowing KB Home to continue to obfuscate falling values and obtain prices inflated well beyond where they would have been in the absence of this unlawful price manipulation,’ according to the lawsuit.
From Krugman at the NYT:
A Long Story
The economic news has been fairly dire this week. The credit crunch is getting worse, and a widely watched indicator of trends in the service sector — which is most of the economy — has fallen off a cliff. It’s still not a certainty that we’re headed into recession, but the odds are growing greater.
And if past experience is any guide, the troubles will persist for a long time — say, into the middle of 2010.
The problems now facing the U.S. economy look a lot like the problems that caused the last two recessions — but this time in combination.
On one side, the bursting of the housing bubble is playing the role that the bursting of the dot-com bubble played in 2001. On the other, the subprime crisis is creating a credit crunch reminiscent of the crunch after the savings-and-loan crisis of the late 1980s, which led to recession in 1990.
…
How severe will the distress be? The double-bubble nature of the underlying problem — a housing bubble and a credit bubble combined — suggests that it may well be worse than either 1990 or 2001.
And some highly respected economists are issuing dire warnings. There has been a lot of buzz about a new paper by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff that compares the United States in recent years to other advanced countries that have experienced financial crises. They find that the U.S. profile resembles that of the “big five crises,” a list that includes, for example, Sweden’s 1991 crisis, which caused the unemployment rate to soar from 2 percent to 9 percent over a two-year period.
From the SF Gate:
Who will pay the mortgage when the homeowner walks? You
California’s housing market may be entering a scarier phase: the point at which homeowners walk because the house isn’t appreciating, not because they can’t afford it. Banks are worried.
A Federal Reserve survey in January 2008 found that loan officers “are concerned with borrowers’ reduced motivation to retain possession of their properties.”
And Calculated Risk, a blog, posted a quote from Wachovia Bank’s January 2008 conference call: “One of the challenges is… a lot of these current losses have been coming out of California… from people that have otherwise had the capacity to pay, but have basically just decided not to because they feel like they’ve lost equity, value in their properties, and … we’re just going to have to see how the patterns unfold here.”
Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis said, “There’s been a change in social attitudes toward default … We’re seeing people who are current on their credit cards but are defaulting on their mortgages … I’m astonished that people would walk away from their homes.”
If income indicates ability to pay, down payment is an incentive to pay – skin in the game.
njcoast (#332 yesterday)-
“I’m afraid some of you are in such a “woe is me” mode that when prices do come down you will be like deer in the headlights.”
Been saying that for months here. Many here consider a 6-month CD a risky investment; can’t wait to see the shaky trigger fingers they’ll display when faced with purchasing against an economic backdrop of $4.00 gas, runaway inflation, collapsing equity markets and God knows what else.
My call remains as always: 60% of the posters here will never buy a house.
8 And don’t think Joe on the street isn’t starting to understand the game – that Joe himself is going to pony up the price.
I have a close acquaintance, who, in reply to my comments regarding our purchasing difficulties, would counter with stories of friends who left careers to become RE investors and made big bucks. The point being that my husband and I obviously just didn’t have enough money, weren’t smart enough, weren’t brave enough, etc.
Last year, the response changed to, “Wow, that couple was smart to get out when they did…they just sold their last property, and XXX is going back to YYY career.”
This year, the response changed to, “I wonder if any of the properties they flipped are going under and back to the bank?”
This week, “Man, somebody’s going to to have to take a big hit on that,” and “Those rebates…my kids are going to be paying this off.”
This is still a great place to hang out & shoot the breeze, though.
Nothing like the corner bar.
Everybody knows your name, and they’re always glad you came.
Norm!
Oh Man, after reading #8 “Who will pay the mortgage when the homeowner walks? You”
I’m embarrassed to admit I’m a Californian.
This group is funny, informative, and sometimes quite time consuming but, if I am sensing that you guys are also watching cheers at 8am on TV Land, it seals the deal.
KL
Thats okay, California Jr (aka New Jersey) is never too far behind.
Clot: I am definitely buying a home and have learned _a lot_ from this site.
From Grim #8 ..but #16 thatBigwindow…
“California law allows homeowners to walk away without liability – even if they have money to pay. It’s not that the California statute is bad alone: it’s that it’s wrong for federal taxes to guarantee huge loans without homewoners guaranteeing those loans too.”
Gee, ya think.
How embarrassing… I live here with these folks.
“I’m afraid some of you are in such a “woe is me” mode that when prices do come down you will be like deer in the headlights.”
My call remains as always: 60% of the posters here will never buy a house.
Not this old close again. What is the formal name for this one? Emasculated-buyer-hidden-agenda? I know more recently this has been referred to as “Pulling a Suzanne” or “Suzanne researched this”, but it’s origins are much older than that.
What ever happened to the lumber guy?
Weyerhaeuser Posts $63 Million Loss on Mill Closures
Weyerhaeuser Co., the largest U.S. lumber producer, slid to a $63 million fourth-quarter loss after shutting wood-product mills, trimming output and selling underperforming assets.
It lost 30 cents a share, compared with net income of $507 million, or $2.12, a year earlier, Federal Way, Washington-based Weyerhaeuser said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Earnings in the 2006 quarter included $344 million from a refund of taxes on Canadian wood shipments.
Chief Executive Officer Steven Rogel is trying to contain costs amid a slump in U.S. housing. The nation’s housing starts fell 14 percent in December to the lowest annual rate since 1991, the Commerce Department said last month.
“The continuing erosion of the U.S. housing market created very unfavorable market conditions for our timberlands, wood products and real estate businesses,” Rogel said in the filing.
Hey guys….just a quick note…won’t see you on Saturday…actually going out to ‘celebrate’….a very rare Date Night with my wife. Reading through these latest news clips really hits home….(bah dum dum…!) But in fact we are getting ready to pay down some debt and basically hunker down for the year….so far so good as they say. I am bullish on my own household, and bearish on the rest of the world. And so it goes.
From the NYT:
Creators of Credit Crunch Revel in Las Vegas
It was Monday night on the Strip, and John Devaney was giving a party for himself and fellow connoisseurs of risk who have seen their hot hands go cold.
In a gilded ballroom at the Venetian, the revelers sipped cabernet, dined on surf and turf and crowed as the Blue Man Group put on a private show.
The partygoers had traveled to Sin City this week — Mr. Devaney by chartered jet — for an event that before the current credit squeeze might have been called the Predators’ Ball of this era.
This time, with mortgage securities replacing the junk bonds of the 1980s, the gathering felt more like group therapy.
I don’t know, I kind of agree with the statement that some here will never will buy a house (at least in NJ)
The thing that gets me is most (not all) of the posters here refuse to live in a town like Fair Lawn or Saddle Brook which (in my opinion) are nice middle class towns, would not want to live in anything south of Paramus and then get mad that they can’t afford a houses in Allendale or Wyckoff. Yes, prices should be lower, but your standards need to come down a bit too…
When Janet is Yellen it’s prudent to be sellen.
Does anyone know how are borrowed money stim package will get distributed,will they just appear in our mail box or do we do it thru our 07 taxes.
23 re towns
I don’t know much about Fair Lawn or Saddle Brook so these comments don’t apply to those towns.
But in general, I have thought that about exactly what you said myself, that why are some towns not “good enough” for me.
If we’re talking BC, the truth there are a lot of towns in South BC that are crap now unfortunately. High gang activity or gang activity starting to trickle in. Not a good RE investment, or a place you want to send your kids to school. So, I think it’s easy to say people are being snobs (not that you are doing this), but there is some rational thought behind it.
I grew up in southern Bergen County BTW, and there is no way I could even live in the neighborhood I grew up in now, that’s how bad it is.
lisoosh Says:
February 7th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
#332 Coast –
Back in the day when you were young and fancy free, I bet you couldn’t imagine that you were just a hop, skip and a jump away from being an old fogy wittering on about the “youth of today’.
How does it feel? Need a rocking chair yet? Bottle of moonshine? Cane?
lissosh,
Maybe it’s a good time to go long on rocking chairs, moonshine and cane’s. I guess I’m in the same market.
Ann, Lodi and Garfield are getting kind of shady, but Southern BC has some nice towns as well such as Wood-Ridge, Has. Heights, the Rutherfords, etc. Northern Bergen County towns have gang activity as well. Unless you move to West Milford, I don’t think it can be avoided in this area….unfortunately…that is why Bergen County has an anti gang taskforce. Hopefully it works!
Ann, Garfield and Lodi are kind of shady, South BC does have nice towns such as Wood-Ridge, Has.Heights, the Rutherfords, etc
JB,
#28 in moderation. That damn ed reference.
349 BubbleYum previous thread
Sorry! I read everything you wrote! I think there was one that was over my head so I didn’t have a response.
: )
I don’t think Warren’s entire thesis is that housing prices bubbled because of dual-income families.
I think it’s just one part of her case that families are worse off these days even though now both parents are working and then she has a million reasons why (no safety net, housing prices bubbled, good public school access).
In fact, I think she would agree with what you wrote in 349 also. We’re working more and we’re all worse off.
As far the housing prices, I’m still sticking with the theory that when most people starting out are starting out with two incomes when they buy, housing prices are bid up versus a situation where most people only would buy with one income, as in the past. Just one of many factors of course.
28
There are pockets in southern Bergen County for sure that are still alright. I would put Ridgefield Park in your list too. But when you look at the test scores and demographics, most of the towns are on their way down, not up. And gang problems in bordering towns is kind of troubling too, even if you find a town that is ok now.
JB,
Can I please get an address, DOM & OLP on
MLS ID# 2438969
This Saturday there is a G7 meeting in Tokyo, central banks and finance ministers. Do you think there is a possibility of changing the location to the Grasshopper?
Someone asked a few days ago if RE agents are feeling the pinch yet…
I just got a listing from Grim (thanks, Grim!) that says this in comments:
ADD REM: 40-acres perimeter fencing (electrified) for cattle. Farmland assessed in low tax township. Both owners licensed real estate brokers.
Must suck to be a husband/wife RE team right now…
Anyway, the question was asked, but I missed the answer if it came…
Would agents be trying to convince sellers to price lower in order to try to snag a sale, as any commission is better than no commission?
“Does anyone know how are borrowed money stim package will get distributed”
Mike [25],
I hear it will be packaged in a C*alis box. Typing the complete name throws it into moderation.
A house is the american dream, but that is not always how the rest of the world feels. Got stuck baby sitting some German Executives the other day and they were suprised we all own homes. Houses are viewed as a bad investment in Germany and in his town owning your own home has a stigma attached and renting is considered the smart thing to do, landlords can’t kick you out, increases in rent are regulated and the landlord gets stuck with all the repairs in Germany. Equally interesting is the Germans all have small flats, they only have one small car per household and have at most 2 kids spread out, nobody ever has three kids si there is never a need to rent a large place.
In the US we all dream of a five bedroom three bath house on a 1/2 acre with an SUV in the driveway they think that is the stupidist thing in the world to do. To each their own.
Re 37, the checks will be distributed along with your welfare cheese come spring.
So when that young white jock in northeast Bergen sells dope to his friends, is he part of a ‘gang’, or does the gang monicker only apply to minorities in the wrong towns?
John [38],
Excellent point.
C*alis & welfare cheese that ? has taken a very scary turn.Can we paint an anymore disturbing picture.
Rent,
Nice comp killer.
124 Old Irondale
Puchased: 8/4/2005
Purchase Price: $430,000
2390257
Listed: 3/27/2007
OLP: $500,000
LP: $450,000
DOM: 149
Withrawn
2438969
Listed: 8/28/2007
OLP: $450,000
LP: $379,900
DOM: 164
Current asking is ~12% under 2005 purchase price.
40
The rich white kid (or actually person of any color) selling drugs is a drug dealer.
Kids part of a gang are part of a gang, in NJ, probably the Bloods, Crips, or the Latin Kings.
Ann,
I have heard that MS13 has been sighted in Lodi as well. Or at least, MS13 wannabes
Stu:
Is SRS still a good buy?
#40: Grim – Good point. That is why I don’t buy into the “good school” myth. Schools can only take you so far, parenting..now that is a lost skill. I went to a blue ribbon high school and let me say, there were drugs and lots of them.
BC – Nah – you might be in the same market, but not the same mindset.
It’s the patronizing tone that got to me. I’ve been reading a lot of stuff recently where people griping about their homes sitting on the market is all because “nobody wants to work for anything anymore”, not because they have overblown expectations about the price.
Every generation has its workers, its strivers and it’s get rich quickers. The Ponzi scheme wasn’t invented yesterday, and it was surely around before it was called Ponzi; marrying for money is as old as “the oldest profession” and gambling happened in the stone age, the stakes were just different.
Saw a PBS show about moonshine the other day though – now THAT was an education.
#26 Ann: Where in So Beregn are things that bad? I live in Bergen, and although not familiar with south Beregn, I always thought that towns like Wood-Ridge and the Rutherford;s were pretty nice towns.
I know Lodi and Grfield are in severe decline (and have been for years), but apart form those areas I was not familair with gang activity and the rest in south Bergen.
The treasury auction was dismal, at best, yesterday. Investors are starting to demand higher yields to compensate for long term inflationary pressures. How will the fed save RE if the market does not cooperate? The fed can fudge/fight all they want, the market always wins. I guarantee one thing, Bob Toll was not dancing after reviewing the auction results yesterday.
#47 tbw; The good school myth is alive and well. My kids (one already out of HS), went to blue ribbon,and on a whole I was not impressed.
Tehy do well becasue we encouraged and demanded it, and made sure that what they needed to get done got done.
I was in Doctors office two time this week. I noticed many other folks had co-pays in range of almost $30 to $40. I am wondering if that has happened beginning of the year with new Benefit plan kicking in.
Has anyone seen significant increases in co-pays this year?
On Medical Costs issue. I was in India last year and we needed to buy some drugs from Roche. These are branded drug, not generic ones, manufactured in US or Europe. I could actually get the same drug at Half the price (after some negotiation with the Rep). I was really surprised myself.
How does living in the “right town” protect you from gang activity?
Upper Haughtyville is mere minutes away from some of the newest gang havens.
Garfield is what, about 3 miles from Glen Rock and Ridgewood?
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say these gangs have access to cars, and probably drive too.
Where do you think those suburban preppie drug dealers are getting their dope from? I hear the rich preppies are paying top dollar these days.
What about the mall? You don’t think there are gangs over at Garden State Plaza? Better not let the kids go shopping either.
21 essex
Too bad – was hoping you’d bring your axe! But date night with the Missus is important.
#53 grim; Garden State is riddled with gang activity.
23 Big
“I don’t know, I kind of agree with the statement that some here will never will buy a house (at least in NJ)”
That parenthetical exception is so large you could drive a truck through it, particularly considering how many here have already said that when they buy, it won’t be in NJ.
And considering that historical homeownership is under 60%, I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to suggest that some folks won’t buy.
3b: You are so right on Good School issue. My daughter goes to one of those blue ribbon schools and I am not at all impressed in both Acadamics and Extra curricular activities like sports, music etc…
On that note, I was talking to someone who moved from Boston area to Minnesota few years ago. He described to me the system in Minnesota and I was really impressed. Over there parents can actually choose from any school within certain distance area. Also they had schools with varied philosophy for e.g. one school taught 5 languages from beginning.
3b
I could name about 10 or so towns in southern Bergen that I wouldn’t put on my list of towns to buy in right now. Not everything in that area, of course, there are nice ones as people have mentioned.
We all have our criteria about what’s important when we’re looking to buy in a town or not. Mine are mine. And of course, other people wouldn’t even consider the towns I considered for their own reasons.
#57 SG; We have talked theis blue ribbon thing to deat over the last year or so.
But here are soem facts that many do not know regarding the blue ribbon program.
1. The blue ribbon program ended in 1997/1998, so any school claiming this “distinction”, well it is at least 10 years old. So basing buying a house in a town with a blue ribbon district is suspect at best, since there never was a yearly recertification process. It may be blue ribbon, but that ribbon is 10 years old.
2. Schools were not awarded a blue ribbon, they had to apply for it, and if certain qualifications were met, then they were “awarded” it.
3. Some schools that could have qualified for it, elected not to purseu it,as it was time consuming, and they felt it distracted from learning. Not to mention it cost money.
Re: #7 the NYT article mentions a paper by Reinhart and Rogoff.
It’s pretty good and explains why this financial crisis mirrors other ones that occurred.
Here’s the link: http://tinyurl.com/2qqlk4
Now we all have to watch out for home invasions. That happens everywhere, even in the most prestigious towns. Invest in a gun and a good alarm system
Mike (25),
The rebates would be based on taxpayers’ 2007 tax returns. Those who file extensions or file late would likely receive their checks later than regular filers, a U.S. Treasury spokesman said last week. The checks will be sent out automatically; taxpayers don’t need to apply.
#58 Ann: Understood, we all have our reasons, but I would not close your eyes to the possibility that other area are seeing declines or changes too.
I understand (do not know it for a fact),that Park Ridge, Hillsdale, and Waldwick are seeing gang activity,and or are nto considered as desireable as they ocne were.
I do know for a fact that Bergenfield and Dumont are in a steep decline, and have been for years.
This stuff can spread.
I closed on the purchase of my new house.
I think market will go down further, but I tried to buy below today’s market and hopefully at a price range where it may bottom out. And for all of the people that say prices in top towns won’t go down, you’re wrong. I’ve given examples over the past two years of homes I’ve watched and now I have one myself.
Here are the stats:
-23% off original OLP
-Top tony town, blue ribbon schools all that good stuff people like to brag about to make them feel special, so yes Richard, prices do go down in top towns
-I took the price range of a similar home in 2000 and added 4% appreciation a year to account for inflation and made my offer just below that. I came up a little in negotiations and ended up at 4% appreciation since 2000
Did I make the right choice? Time will tell, but I needed/wanted to move and buy by the end of this summer, so I found the right house at the right time and a price that I thought was reasonable and reflected the hiroical rate of appreciation.
63 For sure, stuff can spread, easily, very easily, and not limited to southern Bergen by any stretch. Although I would say, overall, that area of Bergen versus the northern part has declined more, probably just due to its age and proximity to the city.
Bergenbuyer, congrats! Sounds like you got a great deal!
From MarketWatch:
SUBPRIME TODAY U.S. widens probe, seeks Merrill information: report
German finance minister says foreign exchange not main issue at G7
Yellen anticipates slowdown, not recession
Beijing to invest $4 billion in J.C. Flowers fund
MBIA to sell $1 billion in stock; shares retreat
Citigroup upgrades Moody’s to buy
What if muni insurance disappeared?
Company default risk soars to record on CDO selloff speculation
New Jersey State Police 2007 Gang Survey
Bergen county towns reporting gang activity
Bergenfield
Bogota
Cliffside Park
Demarest
Elmwood Park
East Rutherford
Edgewater
Emerson
Englewood
Fairview
Fort Lee
Franklin Lakes
Garfield
Leonia
Little Ferry
Lodi
Lyndhurt
Maywood
Moonache
New Milford
North Arlington
Palisades Park
Paramus
Ridgefield Park
Ridgewood
River Edge
Saddle Brook
Teaneck
Wallington
Westwood
Wyckoff
Bergenfield was always a horrible town. I knew two people my age who went to Bergenfield HS – a rough place. They both turned out not so good. Plus the property taxes in Bergenfield are just as high as River Edge…so why would anyone buy in Bergenfield?
I used to live in New Milford, nice town, it borders Bergenfield but safe to walk around at night.
#68: Grim: No, not prestigious River Edge :(
I don’t see anything meaningful about people using Walmart or Target gift cards on staple items. You would get basically the cash equivalent in that case. That makes a lot more sense than buying the higher margin throw-away crap they peddle.
bergenbuyer- Sounds great. Congrats! Hope there will be more stories like yours on here in the coming months.
bb,
Fantastic!
Let us know when you’ve got the blog party scheduled.. :)
I’ve seen a lot of ’13’ graffiti in the Somerset section of Franklin (somerset county).
68. Whew. No Rochelle Park!
Hoping to move out though. Can someone help me out with the history of a listing?
SG #52,
My copay is down from 25 to 15!! :)
First time that’s ever happened to me.
grim #40,
I hear you. Good point. However, when drug dealers keep it on the low down I frankly don’t care. When they start battling for turf with real live bullets in my neighborhood I will. The latter makes for a ‘bad’ neighborhood; the former is just another day in nuevo jersey.
Great news, bb, congrats! Sounds like a very reasoned approach.
jason,
You can email me if you want to keep it private, otherwise just post up an MLS and someone will jump on it.
-I took the price range of a similar home in 2000 and added 4% appreciation a year to account for inflation and made my offer just below that. I came up a little in negotiations and ended up at 4% appreciation since 2000
bb,
Great job. Congrats.
#69 tbw: It is true, or at least RE being listed on the report is true,
And of course some residents were furious that Oradell did not make the list.
Some realtor sent me a sheet in the mail listing closing prices for units in my condo/townhouse complex. The results freaked me out a little. There are actually 3-bedroom units that sold for 280-300k. I haven’t seen those kind of prices since 2003!
78. Emailed away!
So what about the non-street organized crime groups? Mob, Asian groups, Russian Mafia, and others.
Are they OK because they drive expensive cars and live in nice suburban homes?
grim #83,
It’s the gangs with the propensity for random street violence that scare me more.
My neighborhood could be full of Yakuza, but if they don’t bother me or my family, or give us any reason to feel unsafe, what does it matter? Would I even know?
Crime you can see and hear and feel has a much larger impact on a community than crime you can’t. JMHO.
I too am looking forward to that Bergen County Blog Party!
Congrats BB!
#83 Lots of that around too,a nd in soem of the “best towns”. The problem is people do not want to admit that Bergen is starting to see alot of what would have been considered in the past to be city problems.
And of course when blame needs to be assigned, its proximity to NYC.
However, I always found it ironic that the big bogeyman Paterson is only minutes away from Glen Rock, Franklin lakes, Wyckoff etc.
Ann Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 8:17 am
I don’t think Warren’s entire thesis is that housing prices bubbled because of dual-income families.
I think it’s just one part of her case that families are worse off these days even though now both parents are working and then she has a million reasons why (no safety net, housing prices bubbled, good public school access).
________________________________________________
That is definitely true–Elizabeth Warren is incredibly thoughtful on this issue, and was one of the first bankruptcy researchers to really crunch the numbers and point out that buying a home is not always a “great investment”–in fact, sometimes, it’s a “cement life raft.” I just think that an additional net $10-$20k in real income can only go so far in terms explaining upward pressure on housing prices.
In terms of gang activity, a co-worker of one of my husband’s friends just told him that her family would either have to move out of Allendale or send their son to Bergen Catholic beause of the “gang activity” at Northern Highlands. Of course, we all laughed at the anecdote, but none of us our parents–we might change our tune about how “overwrought” these fears are if we had kids.
#64 BB: Congratulations, and good luck!!! I have a feeling we will see more of these types of stories this year.
grim, this may interest you –
http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9587793
It’s about a new ‘strategy’ to deal with gang violence in LA. An excerpt:
“They can exist,” says William Bratton, the head of the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), “but they must behave.” A gang that murders people will be harried by civil injunctions and crackdowns on petty probation violations. A gang that avoids extravagant violence—as many do—will be left alone, more or less.
That would be “none of are parents” at #87–worked late last night.
#87 Bubble Yum: Well if there is gang activity at Northern Highlands, than I guess it is all over.
Lots of surburban kids that want to be gangsta wannabees I guess.
The latest battle plan from the deathstar known as Realogy:
RISMEDIA, Feb. 8, 2008–”It’s a good time to buy real estate.” That’s the message Realogy, the nation’s largest real estate franchisor, wants agents to broadcast to buyers across the country.
The company is spreading the word through a national advertising campaign in USA Today, which began this past Wednesday and will run again on Feb. 13th and 20th. This is Realogy’s second national push in as many years to take a strong stance against the barrage of negative press directed toward the real estate industry over what is reported as the declining condition of the housing market.
The Parsippany, New Jersey-based parent of the Better Homes and Gardens® Real Estate, CENTURY 21®, Coldwell Banker®, Coldwell Banker Commercial®, ERA® and Sotheby’s International Realty® brands, ran a full-page advertisement in the front section of USA Today and expects to reach more than 3.9 million consumers with its message. The ad lets consumers know that recently-cut mortgage rates and a wealth of available properties, make today a “great time” to purchase a home.
The timing of the ad, titled, “Think You Can’t Get a Home Loan? Well Think Again. You May Be Pleasantly Surprised.,” aligns with the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and lets consumers know that: money is available for those who meet basic requirements; affordability has improved; rates are attractive; and inventory is plentiful.
In an exclusive interview with Alex Perriello, president & CEO of the Realogy Franchise Group, he said the ads aim to educate consumers who might be at the positive tipping point on buying a home.
“We want to educate the consumer with relevant facts about today’s real estate market,” he said. “There are a lot of positives, and we feel that reinforcing the positives will help clarify things for consumers who are on the fence what to do in today’s market. I travel a lot to real estate offices and I hear from a lot of our agents that buyers are out there, but that they are not sure what to do. We felt that talking openly about the opportunities may help people to see that it is a good time to get into the market, and we believe it is.”
Perriello said there are three common misconceptions consumers have about the real estate market right now :people can’t get a loan: affordability is out of reach: and consumers should wait for rates to go lower.
“I was watching a news show last week after the Federal Reserve made its second rate cut on Tuesday, and the host of the program said, ‘I don’t know if it will help because you can’t get a mortgage.’ You hear this over and over again. We want to set the record straight on that. If you meet very basic requirements – you have a job for the past two years, you can make the payments, you plan to live in the property and you have a credit score that suggests you are responsible, you can get a mortgage. These are all reasonable requirements.”
He added that affordability today is better than it has been in almost three years, and that interest rates are now at 40-year historic lows, so people shouldn’t wait to buy.
In the national scope of the economy, Perriello said that the Federal Reserve is doing a good job of doing what it can to avert a recession, but stopped short on any market predictions for the remainder of 2008.
“It’s too early to know how it will go,” he said. ‘We’ll see what the impact of the rate cut brings. Another wild card is [President Bush’s economic] stimulus package, which has gotten through the House but is now stalled in the Senate.”
To combat negative press, Perriello believes that all real estate professionals need to take a very proactive position in the marketplace. “We recommend they absolutely follow our lead,” he said. “We are providing to our franchisees the ad template so they can customize it with their branding and information in their local markets. There are some great talking points in these ads.”
For more information, visit http://www.realogy.com.
Wyckoff
SLD 764 HICKORY HILL RD $802,000 1/12/2006
2735159
ACT 764 HICKORY HILL RD $879,900 8/29/2007
PCH 764 HICKORY HILL RD $849,900 9/27/2007
PCH 764 HICKORY HILL RD $834,900 11/12/2007
W-U 764 HICKORY HILL RD $834,900 1/21/2008
2802725 (same broker & agent)
ACT 764 HICKORY HILL RD $834,900 1/21/2008
PCH 764 HICKORY HILL RD $799,900 2/8/2008
regarding 84 sync
I agree with sync, if you have a “business” savvy group like yakuza or some other group, who keeps their business private and with no immediate collateral damage, then how is that much different then current Nj politicians and corrupt cops? When i lived in new Brunswick for a while, i was more concerned about corrupt cops then some of the various criminal elements i occasionally crossed paths with. I got to see both groups in action and i would rather deal with the criminals.
kl (15)-
At 8 PM, it’s either Fast Money or Argentine soccer for me.
Grim – I’d add that the 2007 Gang Report makes it very clear that these gangs for the most part are unaffiliated and generally young kids. In other words, they are 16 year old wannabes who wear red and call themselves “Bloods” in order to appear cool.
Sync – I LIVE in Franklin. You have panicing about Franklin on the brain. The “gang” members are wannabe kids too – most of them live in a couple of complexes half a mile away from me up 27; according to State police gang task forces they number around 50 kids, and this is in a town with over 50,000 inhabitants. We’re not living in a war zone here. It is a problem, yes and one that the schools and local churches are getting involved in and getting parents involved in. But enough with the paranoia. Franklin shares a border with New Brunswick and has its share of the NB mess to deal with, but try not to encourage more flight.
And actually – if you look at nj dot com and pull up crime stats, Franklins crime rate has halved over the past 10 years. It isn’t any higher than Piscataway, North Brunswick or even “prestigious” South Brunswick. In fact South Brunswick was on a gang watch list and had a higher risk rating than Franklin did.
Frankly, I’m not sure if I believe the state police and other police groups regarding gang activity.
At this point I’m standing in the middle ground wondering if it is real, or if it being overblown by municipal police, county police, and state police to ensure a fat stream of funding.
There seems to be incentive to keep the public scared here.
Grim – think something I wrote about gangs is in moderation.
96 grim,
I have a friend who is a state trooper. The answer to your question (according to him) is both. As soon as a couple of board teens tag a few walls it gets labeled as suspected gang activity. But there is also an apparent, real influx of gang activity over the last 5 – 10 years
Can someone give me some info on 2420916 (Kinnelon)
grim #96,
That’s a possibility. But gang presence in certain parts is undeniable. Newark and Irv, for example.
In a place like Pway, it’s more questionable. NJSP says they exist here but it’s my sense that the problems are usually from people who drive in from Plainfield.
96 grim
I see your point, but OTOH, politically, I would think that individual towns would want to be able to say No to the survey.
Some towns in the past wouldn’t even participate in the survey, and some of those towns definitely had gang activity.
But once there is a public news report of gang activity, they really don’t have a choice but to say Yes.
regarding LA gangs.
I have heard that their civil tactics have been relatively successful along with the police talking directly with these groups
#96 grim: Good Point. Also great way to scare the public into thinking that mergining municipal police forces or disbanding the BC Police Dept, will create safety issues for residents.
Cindy Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 6:23 am
In the line at Target last weekend… The lady in front of me was using a GIFT CARD to purchase household cleaning supplies, toothpaste etc. Didn’t Wal Mart report GIFT CARDS being used to purchase food?
Probably not the scenario they envisioned when all of those gift cards were sold at Christmas.
C: From what I understand, many people actually did give WalMart/similar gift cards for this reason. Family members in trouble, but it saves the embarassment/stigma of giving a handout…
RE Top Schools.
The funny thing is, NJ has over 500 school districts.
And yet there is a war on to get into the “top” 10 or 15. It seems that the other 500 have been relegated to the level of Camden or Newark which is ridiculous.
Fact of the matter, a great number of those school districts, probably the majority offer a solid education as long as the parents care enough to pay attention. And a great number of them offer a better opportunity for smart or talented kids to really stand out from the pack.
Grim (19)-
Not pulling a Suzanne at all. It still means that 40% of a damn big group here WILL buy a home.
I know the over-analytical type well. In person, I see it in body language and hear it in verbal cues. I think I’ve seen a written form of it in some of the posts here. A super-analytical person who tends to break things down to a granular level is probably never going to get comfortable enough to buy a home…not today, and certainly not in the mosh-pit of what’s about to come.
Clot (96),
8 AM
lisoosh #97,
I worked in Franklin for a while (on Davidson) so I believe you. What used to crack me up was the ‘AK-47’ graffiti in one of the unoccupied corporate complexes on Davidson Rd.
Clotpoll Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 7:03 am
This is still a great place to hang out & shoot the breeze, though.
clot: for some it’s more of a place to pass wind….
#96
I was looking through the various towns that I know and one that struck me was Fairfield in Essex County. I wonder if the gang activity is related to Rte 46 and Rte 80 going through the town. Do they have gangs in the town or is there gang activity because of the highways going through it? There is probably mob activity in the town just like North Caldwell and West Caldwell.
BC (24)-
Is there anywhere I can get odds on whether there will be a fistfight at the next Fed meeting?
Clott 108
I think I’ve seen a written form of it in some of the posts here. A super-analytical person who tends to break things down to a granular level
you know, you could just call me out by name ;)
Ann Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 10:13 am
96 grim
“I see your point, but OTOH, politically, I would think that individual towns would want to be able to say No to the survey.”
Unless there is money involved. This is NJ after all.
I won’t name-call. I’m sure that in many individual cases, I will be entirely wrong in my call. Some of the super-analyticals will buy, and some of the emotional/drivers will freak out and shy away.
“syncmaster Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 10:17 am
lisoosh #97,
I worked in Franklin for a while (on Davidson) so I believe you. What used to crack me up was the ‘AK-47′ graffiti in one of the unoccupied corporate complexes on Davidson Rd.”
Hey, I didn’t say those kids weren’t a- holes. Can’t count the number of times I’ve almost run someone over on 27 – running back and forth across the road in the dark, dressed head to toe in black (it’s cool I suppose) with a hood on.
Then again, its getting harder and harder to drive up the road with all the little old Indian ladies wandering up and down it either.
Thank you for all of the congrats. I appreciate it. I won’t be able to make the grasshopper this weekend, but I hope you enjoy yourselves.
One other thing, I had no problem getting a loan and a very good rate. I had good credit and a big down payment. They actually barely asked for any documentation, just the last two pay stubs. So credit is out there if you have your stuff in order.
lisoosh #117,
;)
#118 BB: So credit is out there if you have your stuff in order.
I would say you are probably the exception and not the rule, as far as having your stuff in order.
bb,
What bank & rate, if you don’t mind sharing? Some folks here have been shopping for a loan, so they might find the information helpful.
clott,
I am just busting your chops.
Gift Card Tell:
Here’s a sign of how shaky the economy has become: Wal-Mart (WMT) says its shoppers are redeeming their holiday gift cards for basic items — pasta sauce, diapers, laundry detergent — instead of iPods or DVDs.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/WMT-TGT-CSCO-gps-jcp-jwn/index/a/15843
BB (118),
Credit has always and probably will always be available for those with good credit who meet the standards that were used back in the 90s.
This bull the Realogy is putting out there that many think credit is not available is their way of saying many Americans are stupid. That they don’t know that credit isn’t availble in the form it was previously where you didn’t need a downpayment, collateral and an income that will meet the payments.
Bergen (64)-
Quite a coup! Congrats…
About Gangs:
I think it is important to separate Gangs Activity in Towns from Gangs Infested Schools:
You can not stop gangs from driving into your town.
However if there are gangs members and gangs Forming in your school – well thats directly affect your kids. In my home town (not in USA) in middle/high school if you are a boy you had to be in a gang. If you are not – you will be abused, beaten and driven crazy. Gangs where a way to protect each other. I’ve seen and done some $hit.
I do not want my kids to go through this.
Right now I know of a few middle class towns in Cental Jersey where there are race-based gangs in high schools. In my opinion this is the real problem as no parents/school/police will be able to do anothing about it.
I wonder if being a Realtor in Bergen County is enough justification for a concealed carry permit.
97; 98 grim/soosh
Agree. I lived in LA for a stretch in ’88/’89, and the panicking about NJ “gangs” always gives me a bit of a chuckle. NJ gangs are to the actual Bloods and Crips as kids playing stickball are to the Yankees.
Is there crime? Yes. Will it get worse in a downturn? Yes. Is it primarily a “gang” problem in the Bloods/Crips sense? No.
Al #126,
What country are you from? If you don’t mind me asking.
I grew up in India, cops were ineffective. My neighborhood was gang controlled and protected. The gang, in turn, was backed by a political party. The neighborhood was kept safe, even during riots, because of their presence.
5.625 on a 30 yr fixed conforming loan (I believe rates went a little lower after I locked, but it was too close to my closing)
NJ Lenders- Steve Grossman
American Federal Mortgage- Joe Mancuso
Clotpoll Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Grim (19)- I know the over-analytical type well. In person, I see it in body language and hear it in verbal cues. I think I’ve seen a written form of it in some of the posts here. A super-analytical person who tends to break things down to a granular level is probably never going to get comfortable enough to buy a home…not today, and certainly not in the mosh-pit of what’s about to come.
Yo grim: I was just considering this relative to a call option to buy real estate. What do you think? I was trying to calculate the correct theoretic value of a European call based on a canned implied vol that I ripped off the Bloomberg. I want to optimize the upside insurance I get as I sit on the sidelines.
The value of a European call option on a nondividend paying stock (edit: or in this case the Case-Shiller basket) could depend upon a number of factors; the current price of the stock S, the exercise price X, the time until expiration t, the risk-free interest rate r, the volatility of the stock price q, and the expected rate of return on the stock . Let C be the price of the call option. The functional dependence can then be expressed as: C = C(S, X, t, r, q, ). The analysis will reveal that the last variable, , plays no role in determining option value for this case. The change in stock price dS is assumed to be given by: dS = Sdt + qSdz By Ito’s Lemma
dC = [(C/t) + (C/S) S + (1/2)(2C/S2)q2S2]dt + (C/S)qSdz. Now consider a portfolio containing one written call (whose value is -C) and h shares of the underlying stock. The value V of this portfolio is given as: V = hS – C The change in value is then: dV = hdS – dC If h is equal to C/S then dV = (C/S)dS -dC.
This means that the change in the value of the portfolio dV over the interval dt is:
dV = (C/S)(µSdt + qSdz) – [(C/S)S + (C/t) + (1/2)(2C/S2)q2S2]dt – (C/S)qSdz. When terms are combined we find that those involving dz cancel out. Also the terms involving cancel out leaving: dV = [ -(C/t) – (1/2)(2C/S2) q2S2]dt. Thus V is independent of the random variable dz; i.e., is is a risk free portfolio. Also the value of dV is independent of the expected rate of return (which is also the expected rate of growth of stock price S). Since the value of the portfolio is independent of the random variable it should increase in value at the same rate as the risk free interest rate; i.e., dV = rVdt = r[(C/S)S – C]dt For this to hold for all dt requires that: (C/t) + (1/2)(2C/S2)q2S2 = – r(C/S)S + rC, or
(C/t) + (C/S)rS + (1/2)(2C/S2)q2S2 = rC.
This is the Black-Scholes differential equation for call option value. Had we considered the put value P instead of the call value we would have come up with the same equation. The solution of the above equation for C = max(S-X,0) on expiration day gives the Black-Scholes formula for call option value. The solution of the above equation for C = max(X-S,0) on expiration day gives the value of a put option.
3b Says:
if there is gang activity at Northern Highlands, than I guess it is all over.
________________________________________________
Yeah, I’m not sure where you go from there–who’s to say that MS-13 won’t pop up at Bergen Catholic too? But seriously, I think you got it–no matter how good or bad the school/town is supposed to be, the kids that do well are the ones with the invested parents, and the kids that don’t are the ones with the less-invested parents. The environment is important, but working 80 hours a week to keep a child you never see in a “good school/town” is probably not going to produce the result a parent wants . . .
Grim – I’d add that the 2007 Gang Report makes it very clear that these gangs for the most part are unaffiliated and generally young kids. In other words, they are 16 year old wannabes who wear red and call themselves “Bloods” in order to appear cool.
As I said in my post before – I’d rather have “real” gangs than 16 years old kids. Once they beat up your kid couple of times at school and there is NOTHING you can do about it – I will see what you have to say.
Re: My previous post 101 – “Can someone give me some info on 2420916 (Kinnelon)”
Pretty please?
Here’s the only criteria that anyone needs when buying a house: price. Forget all the puffery, forget the “blue ribbon” nonsense, forget what your neighbor’s sister’s dog told you, forget the he said, she said bullsh*t. If you find a house suitable for your family and needs, make an offer based on real, long term, fundamental trends. 99% of the masses are mental midgets. Make a smart decision, don’t follow the crowds. If the sellers’s are insulted by your offer, send them a box of chocolates and a hanky and move on. Remember, you dictate the terms, not them.
Can anybody give me a status (sales price) on these homes in Hunterdon Cty?
2453881
2454314
They’re not on gslms anymore so I assume either sold or withdrawn.
Thanks!!!
you can take this top town anti-snobbery down all the way to the bottom. why live in a middling town? why not just live in Newark or the south Bronx? a few kids come out of those places OK. If you are a superior parent, your kids should be fine.
I personally don’t see what so bad about wanting to live in the best circumstances you can afford. If you are making the money, what else are you saving it for? So you can point to a brokerage account statement and lecture your kids about how noble it is to live below your means?
There is a middle ground between living above your means and living below your means. It’s called living within your means. And if you can live in a really nice area within your means and don’t, I have to ask what you’re trying to prove.
PARIS (AP) — French police were holding a second person for questioning about the loss of billions at bank Societe Generale, a judicial official said Friday.
The person, who worked at a brokerage partially owned by Societe Generale, was taken into custody on Thursday and was still being held, said the official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the case.
Bank spokeswoman Joelle Rosello confirmed that an employee of Newedge, a 50-percent owned affiliate, was in custody in connection with the scandal.
Photo of accomplice:
http://tinyurl.com/3cfar5
Re: Gangs. There is a gang problem in Bergen and it effects us even if we are not aware of it.
Julie,
198 Kinnelon Road
[137] well said
x,
2453881 – $365k
2454314 – Withdrawn
Schools are probably more complex than a simple “good-bad” axis can measure. The neighborhood was tough, and now expensive, but the school is kind of the same bag of contraction–so those who cling to the old stereotype of the school are surprised at its good academics, while the new comers with rosy glasses are surprised at its tough environment.
My high school–graffittee, gang, drug, fights, drive-by shootings. (And people get shot). In a formerly tough neighborhood. 25 kids/class. Population: Latino majority, white/black even, and maybe 10% Asian.
At the same time, it offers 8 languages (language magnet school), gets 2 spots to Harvard (2 the year before me, 2 my year, 2 the year after but one turned it down to go to MIT). It’s a feeder school to UCLA–one of the better public universities–and other UCs. Its science bowl wins national championships and its academic decathlon wins LA regionals. It offers 80% of all AP classes with high passing rates. Tennis court, backetball court, swimming pool, etc. The teachers are flexible and experienced.
In the end, some schools are the pits, while others walk the cloud. But for most schools, it is a mix bag. Anyone who really care about school should probably do their real sleuthing and get hands dirty and figure out the whole picture.
x (136)-
2454314- sold, 365K (worst spot in Tewks, IMO)
2453881- withdrawn
I served on the Somerset County grand jury for 3 months a few years back.
Now THAT was an eye opener.
Fair amount from Franklin and North Plainfield, all petty – kids picked up with joints, joyriding, “dealers” with a total of 1 gram of weed, disgruntled workers stealing computers from ex employers, and so on.
Lots of theft, personal arguments and fights throughout the rest of the county. And drugs of course, lots of drug deals go down in the restaurant parking lots off of route 22. Sad case where a bunch of grown men beat up a homeless person for his welfare check. That was in Hillsborough.
Plenty of nastier crimes from the higher end areas – a kid in Bridgewater (high schooler) who was importing massive amounts of steriods into the country from Mexico and selling it to his friends stuck in my mind. Some housewife in Bernardsville who was accused of having an affair with her sons very underage friend. And a poor family from Manville whos old Italian grandfather (South Brunswick resident) was accused of molesting their daughter.
In Franklin, a rash of recent burglaries was found to have been carried out not by our local yokels but by bored, and wealthy teenagers from very tony Montgomery.
I was surprised yesterday when I went to rebalance my IRA account. Ameritrade changed their model growth portfolio to include a new category. They now recommend a 13% investment in real estate. Certainly not something I would be a fan of at this time.
Are they being contrarian, prescient, or just trying to prop up some failing funds?
Grim,
Many thanks!
Go back and read the Record. Recently a Latin King threatened a prosecutor in bergen county in open court.
How about the Fuk Chin homicide case from the mid 90’s.
You’d be surprised to know how many kids at the food courts at the mall have concealed weapons in their pockets – they all claim its for protection because they don’t want to get jumped.
#135 akeptic: Agreed. And ironically it is some of the wannabe towns that are actually more with the keep up with the Jones’s attitude than the very affluent towns, those have always been affluent.
[145] It was a good experience for you. That goes on every day in every county.
107 clot
“A super-analytical person who tends to break things down to a granular level is probably never going to get comfortable enough to buy a home…”
Clot, that’s not my experience. Maybe it’s just this particular circle of people, but in M&A you’ve got PE guys, investment bankers, C-level guys at acquisitive corporations, tax lawyers etc. breaking stuff down to about the most granular level you could ever want – and then buying it.
Historically, 45% of all people never buy, and people on this board are of more bearish temperament than average, so I don’t particularly disagree with your estimate of 60% (frankly, I’ve no idea, and I think that there are countervailing factors such as the impression I have that grim’s readership is a bit wealthier than your average bear), but I disagree that More Analytical = Less Likely to Buy.
“Is there anywhere I can get odds on whether there will be a fistfight at the next Fed meeting?”
Clot, buy me a ticket and then bet YES…
Clotpoll Says:
2454314- sold, 365K (worst spot in Tewks, IMO)
My wife and I drove around tewks a few months ago. My first job out of college was managing the United National Branch right there in the early 90’s (Now PNC I think) I get the impression that the town is millionaires trying to escape everything. There’s all these mega mansions out in the country with nobody else around. The place seems cold and lonely.
2453881- withdrawn
I think the asking price on that was $360 something. IMO, was priced about right. Wonder why they pulled.
I went to pretty crappy public schools growing up (i.e., most people didn’t go on to college of any kind, day-care in the school for the babies of female students, etc).
While all schools have problems, I will take the problems of rich schools for my kids any day. At least there is a general expectation that kids will succeed, and academically successful kids are by and large respected by other students. There are many schools (the majority?) where this is not the case. Kids worlds are very small and it is difficult for most to resist the prevailing culture among their peers.
#46 Victorian Says:
“Is SRS still a good buy?”
Personally, I feel anything under 100 is a good buy. Others feel 80 is absolute bottom and some are praising 90. Seeing that we hit 151 less than a month ago, the upside potential looks much stronger than the downside.
Keep in mind, you are fighting the FED with this investment. Ultrashort ETFs are not long term investments and work better as a hedge against related long positions.
I am in no way advocating you purchase SRS. That decision must me your own. I certainly would not put a lot of faith in someone I know nothing about who posts on a RE blog.
Due your DD.
Disclaimer: I had fruity Cheerios for breakfast since my 2-year old son wouldn’t touch them. I don’t blame him.
X,
Maybe it was taken away…
———————————-
FYI: Post 94 is now REO
I have another question – I had a few hours of GSMLS access yesterday. I tried to make sense of last years selling season in Bridgewater/somervill/raritan/BBrook/Sbbrook/Branchburg area. I am looking at starter homes.
It seems that: starter homes in spring time (february/aipril) were sold for may be 10K under asking. Asking priced were pretty much the same as this spring.
some listings which did not sell quickly, were sold in spetember/october for 30-40K off (about 20-30K below sales prices from spring time).
All houses I compare were quite similar to each other, within few blocks of each other. The only part which is hard to Judge – is buisy street/excact neighbourhood – I can make conclusions based on maps, but without actually going and looking it is hard to say.
Based on these data will it be worth start looking now, but wait untill august??? As last year some bargains were had in fall.
Also – starter houses priced about 10% below comps in the area are sold withing 1-2 weeks…..
Anything wrong with this analysis???
P.S. It cost me nothing extra to wait (lease month to month, actually expected difference between my rent and buying starter home will be about 500-1K (yes I do save the difference) in monthly payments so the longer I rent the larger downpayment I will have.)
131 chi
I was told there would be no math…
#64, 130 BB: Congratulations, and good luck!!
I have the exact same idea, factor in the 4% and offer a little less than that, hopefully it will work for us before the summer.
Also thank you for the Mtg information
Have fun at the Grasshopper for the ones going
Al Says:
“As I said in my post before – I’d rather have “real” gangs than 16 years old kids. Once they beat up your kid couple of times at school and there is NOTHING you can do about it – I will see what you have to say.”
As njpatient pointed out, “real” gangs in LA are incredibly scary and violent, and they include adults AND kids in schools (that’s how they recruit new members, they get them young). And those schoolkids have easy access to hard weapons and adults helping and encouraging them to commit violent crimes.
Nobody wants their kid beaten up in school, but it doesn’t take a gang to do that, just one other kid.
You can’t deal effectively with an issue unless you correctly identify what that issue is. Either a towns gang problem is hard core adult gang members actively recruiting young kids and using them, usually to sell/run drugs and commit robberies, OR you have a bunch of kids who want to be just like they see on TV. Same name, completely different problem.
Recession to be longer than usual: UMich
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. economy has entered a recession that will be more painful and drawn out than the usual downturn, the director of the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey said on Friday.
More at: http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0826726720080208?sp=trueN0826726720080208
Hey a little bit of crime is all about being a teenager, whats the big deal? A guy in my rich neighborhood growing up paid 5 bucks each for Mercedes hub cabs and the front emblem that pulled out and he sold them at the flea market for 20 bucks each. I know lots of now SVP/EVP level people who back in HS swiped a few hubcaps for the guy for beer money. Heck my favorite of all time was this guy in HS who sold a 200 car stereo for 20 bucks and like an idiot I bought it, guess what he stole it back the next week, that guy was the smartest crook going, he kept stealing the same stolen radio over and over again as he knew where to find the radio and that the owner could not call the police to report their stolen radio stolen!! I was out 20 bucks but damm I was jealous I did not think of it. I mainly stuck to ticket scalping and other socially acceptable forms of making money on the side. That is what HS is all about.
133 Al
“As I said in my post before – I’d rather have “real” gangs than 16 years old kids. Once they beat up your kid couple of times at school”
With apologies in advance, this is frankly laughable. Kids have been getting beat up at school for donkeys’ years irrespective of the presence of “gangs”. And the “real” gangs shoot and kill people at random for sport (and often for the right to join the gang, which is why you get random drive-by shootings in perfectly decent neighborhoods). “Real” gangs do business with Mexican and Colombian drug lords. “Real” gangs don’t allow members to leave, and “real” gangs infiltrate prison systems. “Real” gangs also beat kids up at school, but that kinda gets lost in the shuffle.
x (152)-
“The place seems cold and lonely.”
If so, then I want to be cold and lonely.
A lot of folks have that take on Tewksbury. However, come back late April/early May/mid-October and tell me what you think. If there’s a nicer place in NJ, I haven’t found it.
Of course, it goes without saying that my shrink friend has told me she writes more scripts for Tewks clients than all her other patients put together.
Clot/NJpatient: I think what you leave out of the equation of NJ RE bloggers likely to purchase homes is that almost everyone who frequents this blog does it to get educated about buying a home.
In short, we wouldn’t be here if we did not have an interest in the topic. This must be weighed into your analysis.
To post #162
I guess it is different here – in my country real gangs are part of the police/goverment so they do keep low profile. Thouse you describe are called Outlaws by Mafia, and hunted down by both police and organized chrime. The motto – do you buisness quietly.
John (161)-
Hooh-hah! I taught the guys at my school how to play craps and ran a dice game in the parking lot at lunch.
skep,
You have no idea how many emails I get from readers who feel so alienated that they don’t even bother to read anymore.
I recently read one email from a reader who actually said she felt embarassed to ask about an MLS listing because it was in a town that is regularly derided here.
Stu (164)-
“…we wouldn’t be here if we did not have an interest in the topic. This must be weighed into your analysis.”
It is. I just figure that what 60% of the posters here learn will be enough to send them packing when the time comes to decide whether or not to actually pull the trigger.
skep-tic Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 10:44 am
“you can take this top town anti-snobbery down all the way to the bottom. why live in a middling town? why not just live in Newark or the south Bronx? a few kids come out of those places OK. If you are a superior parent, your kids should be fine.”
“There is a middle ground between living above your means and living below your means. It’s called living within your means. And if you can live in a really nice area within your means and don’t, I have to ask what you’re trying to prove.”
I disagree with the first statement and agree with the second.
NOT living in Westfield certainly does not equal living in the worst part of Newark.
I do agree with living within a persons means, and the truly wealthy would definitely be expected to live among the truly wealth.
The sad state of affairs in NJ, is that the town snobbery has hit a level whereby a very small number of towns have become “acceptable” and a huge number of perfectly nice towns are dumped on. It is an attitude that pressures parents to live above their means in order to “prove” that they truly care for their kids. For many of those families, it would make a lot more sense to live in a more affordable town, spend real time with their kids and not be in such financial stress. And for most of them, they wouldn’t be doing their kids a diservice by not living in Upper McHaughty.
grim (167)-
Would that town be Brigadoon? :)
Clot,
Tewks is a typical uber-rich jersey country place…like Mendham. I agree its absolutely beautiful. Back when I had a motorcycle, that was a common ride through all the backroads in the area.
How’s the action going on your Lambertville listing? Nice place but my wife and I agreed that we probably wouldn’t fit the typical demographics of the town.
#167 grim: I am sorry to hear that. I honestly did not think there was much of that town bashing here.
Al #165 – It may be a culture thing.
What you call gangs, we call mafia. Completely different thing.
This will have big impact,
S&P proposes changes to ratings process
Rival agencies unveil similar plans; Cuomo calls it ‘window dressing’
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Standard & Poor’s proposed changing the way it comes up with ratings on Thursday after the mortgage crisis exposed flaws in the current system. Rivals Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings unveiled similar plans this week.
The agencies have been criticized for not spotting the impact of the housing crisis on complex mortgage-related securities such as collateralized debt obligations. Ratings on some of these securities have been slashed in recent months. The agencies’ business model, which relies on issuers paying for ratings rather than investors, has also been attacked for undermining the independence of their opinions.
The agencies currently use the same ratings for structured securities as they do for corporate debt and municipal bonds. However, recent studies have shown that some structured securities like CDOs default more often than muni and corporate bonds. The mortgage crisis has shined a harsh light on such differences.
It is. I just figure that what 60% of the posters here learn will be enough to send them packing when the time comes to decide whether or not to actually pull the trigger.
I see it differently. I think when we get closer to the extended flat period of home values, the doom and gloom here will change to more of an even keel between optimism and pessimism. At that point, I think it will be more than 40% who will actually purchase a home. Of course, between now and then, I would bet very few here even look. ;)
lisoosh (169)-
All these “top town” conversations remind me of when Manhattan was making its final leap into becoming a 100% colony of the rich.
NJ is simply in the final phase of transformation into the US’ first state for the rich only. As the middle and lower classes get squeezed out further, the finger-pointing and rating game escalates. Just more people fighting for a smaller slice of the pie.
Of course, when the transformation is complete- and PA and DE become the outposts where the lower-to-middle class support people live- the whole state will implode.
Hope I’m not around when that happens.
skep-tic Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 10:44 am
you can take this top town anti-snobbery down all the way to the bottom. why live in a middling town? why not just live in Newark or the south Bronx? a few kids come out of those places OK. If you are a superior parent, your kids should be fine.
I personally don’t see what so bad about wanting to live in the best circumstances you can afford.
________________________________________________
There’s nothing at all wrong with it. But let’s face it–there’s a lot of complaining here and elsewhere about the cost to live in towns like Ridgewood or Tenafly from people who want to live in Ridgewood or Tenafly. To my mind, the situation is what it is–if it’s worth the price to you, you pay it. If it’s not, you don’t. And as I said yesterday, the extremism doesn’t help–there’s a lot available between Ho-Ho-Kus and the South Bronx, so no one needs to take anything “down to the bottom.”
Above all, I think there is only so far that you can run away from certain problems. My husband went to Northern Regional when the place was awash in drugs, but he had a good relationship with parents who were invested in his life, so the drug use around him didn’t effect him. My only point is that there are things that money can buy, and things it can’t. My in-laws used their money to buy their kids a nice home in a nice town with good schools (which they could afford without struggle). And they used their time to raise those kids well–time they had because they lived within their means. They understood that there are limits to both time and money, and tried to use both as wisely as they could. That’s the most anyone can ask of a parent, in my opinion.
Let’s not put down Brigadoon! Once you move here, you’ll never leave! (because it’s not permitted :)
x (171)-
Lots of showings on that L’ville house. It is exceptionally well-built. Only minus is that a neighbor a few doors down is a pig & has a dumpster and several large, dirty trucks in front of his house. My seller is going to the town to have the guy cited, but it may take a while.
Don’t write off L’ville. I lived there for 4 years when I first came to NJ and still have many friends there.
#176 – Would be fun to watch though. From a comfortable distance.
Clot #176,
There are plenty of decent places in Jersey where a middle class job gets you a nice place to live. We’re not Manhattan yet – not even close.
There’s more to Jersey than Bergen and Brigadoon (and Tewksbury).
As for town bashing, there is a large proportion of highly educated posters here, evidenced by the thought and care that goes into the average post. Go look at any yahoo comments or the like. Many have turned their intellect into a higher salary which affords them the ability to live in a snootier town. Unfortunately, those who live in snootier towns tend to overemphasize the differences between the so-called nice and not-so nice towns to justify their additional cost of living in the snooty towns. Of course the not-so nice town resident should be laughing instead of complaining as they are the ones who are getting a significantly better bang for the buck and will probably retire sooner ;)
I went to a private prep school, and I’d dare say the quantity/quality of drugs available dwarfed that of public schools.
Probably still the same, too. Bored rich kids are probably as destructive (in their own way) as the MS 13.
#150 clot: Being a Brigadoon basher myself, I only bashed it not because of its wealth, or snob appeal and all the rest.
I bashed simply because you know who was under the impression that prices could not and would not fall there.
As I said earlier I do not recall a lot of town bashing here, as far as towns being bad for whatever reason or reasons.
I do believe that people who are not familiar with an area or town, should be alerted to the fact that where they are considering purchasing has down sides and or serious issues..
I will never forget how a few years ago, some acquatienances were discussing how one sold his parents old house in another town to some clueless NY’ers for big bucks.
And how these people were totally clueless, and did not even realize they were buying on a busy street and he laughed about how they were looking forward to sending their kids to the public schools, which have some serious problems.
Me personally I thought it was shameful. So as a former NY’er I have given my opinions/advice to people who are not familair with areas in Bergen Co. so that at least they know both sides, and can then hopefully make an informed decesion.
sync (181)-
“There are plenty of decent places in Jersey where a middle class job gets you a nice place to live.”
True. Then, the mortgage for the place you live and the property taxes bleed you dry.
164 Stu
“Clot/NJpatient: I think what you leave out of the equation of NJ RE bloggers likely to purchase homes is that almost everyone who frequents this blog does it to get educated about buying a home”
I don’t have an equation; as I said, I have no idea whether people on this board are more or less likely to buy than the general public, and can think of arguments either way. Your point is a good one, however.
Stu #182,
I was listening to a conversation at work yesterday – a group of people with either no children or one child b1tching about their 12 or 14k property tax bills. Why live there? You can get away with less than half that in Jersey without living la vida loca in da ghetto.
Clotpoll Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 11:22 am
lisoosh (169)-
All these “top town” conversations remind me of when Manhattan was making its final leap into becoming a 100% colony of the rich.
NJ is simply in the final phase of transformation into the US’ first state for the rich only. As the middle and lower classes get squeezed out further, the finger-pointing and
Clot you are wrong here – NJ will become First US state for Rich and Very Poor with no middle class. “Rich” towns will have their own police, school, and utilities and will separate themselves from Undesirables by Buiding Fences/walls and Police Patrols.
Thats the how it is in any thirld world country which NJ is reminding me of, more and more.
Clot #185,
Sure, if you bought in 2005. Otherwise, the mortgage ain’t that bad.
As for taxes… too many people live in homes too large for their needs. In a state as densely packed as ours, high taxes are just the incentive we need to downgrade to living arrangements more suited to our actual needs (and free up space for those who actually need it).
i’m looking forward to my rebate, are you?
from nj.com dunellen forum.
Q: Anybody know what News12 (hey Dunellen!) was filming by QuickCheck this morning? … oh the anticipation.
A: News 12 was out in front of quick chek randomly interviewing people this morning regarding the federal rebates that would be forthcoming and what they meant to residents, and what impact the overall plan that is being forwarded in congress for relief to the american public
Al (188)-
You’re right. But, the poor who are left here will not be able to fill traditional supporting and “infrastructure”-type jobs, as they will be undereducated, illiterate and/or illegal. That’s when the broken glass-encrusted walls will start going up.
The wall around Paterson is gonna cost a fortune to build, too.
“Let’s not put down Brigadoon! Once you move here, you’ll never leave! (because it’s not permitted :)”
lol. Many of us live in Brigadoon on this board.
Brigadoon is more of a running joke, as are some Duck remnant jokes about Alpine and Ruby Ridge (poking Confused here), but it is shameful if we’re so unpleasant as to have shoved away a portion of grim’s readership.
These checks have nothing to do with economic stimulus. It is mere breadcrumbs to make you ignore the massive bailout of our failing banks (that is actually costing you a lot more than $1200). If it was not an election year, you wouldn’t have gotten a damn thing.
Bread and circuses for the sheeple.
137 skeptic
Exactly.
Let’s be real. Let’s just take Bergen County. Take an average Bergen County house, which is a split or a cape or something built in the 50s. If such a house costs 300K in one town and 600K in another, there must be a reason. Doesn’t mean that the 300K house isn’t a better choice for someone, could be. But to just ignore the difference would just be denial on the part of a buyer.
grim – interesting artilce
Inventories are low for this time of year….
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20080208-hagerty.html
Stu Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 11:28 am
“Unfortunately, those who live in snootier towns tend to overemphasize the differences between the so-called nice and not-so nice towns to justify their additional cost of living in the snooty towns. ”
Agreed.
By the way Stu, exactly what is wrong with fruity Cheerios? I like them.
grim – interesting artilce
Inventories are low for this time of year….
North Jersey inventory is high for this time of year. Roughly up 4% as compared to last year.
grim #40: Good point. There was a drug bust in my neighborhood in my 92% Caucasian town not too long ago. Not sure if it was a kid selling pot out of his house or something harder, but the denizens of the house where the bust took place were of that majority.
Fruity Cheerios are a lame attempt at Fruit Loops. It is sort of like comparing Kool Whip (whipped corn syrup) to real whipped cream.
clot, I had the same experience with private schools and drugs, which relates back to grim’s point. Folks do seem to be less concerned about white lacrosse players at private schools dealing pot than they are about folks of a different hue at public schools dealing pot.
Drug use is probably just as prevalent in Glen Ridge than it is in Downtown Newark. The type of drug used is what differs.
195 ready
“Inventories are low for this time of year….”
To be a bit more accurate, the MOM rate of increase is seasonally low. Inventories are through the roof.
197 soosh
They don’t hold a candle to fruity pebbles
199,201,202
Boys will be boys!
#194 Ann: True. But many times the differences are exaggerated. And just as you can say if there is a 300k price difference between the towns, then there must be seomthing, youc an just as easily ask for 300K difference between the towns, how much difference is there really.
For example between Oakland, FL, Wyckoff, all share a regional HS, does it make sense to struggle to pay 300 more in FL as opposed to Oakland or Wyckoff? Not being argumentative, just looking at it from both ends.
What is really eye opening is when you compare SAT scores from the so called most desireable towns to the less desireable towns, you will note that the scores are in many cases not that much different.
Just pointing this out. I will however be the first to say that yes some towns are better than others when looked at in their totality.
And in keeping with town bashing, I would be the first to say that as far as BC, yes if you are looking to buy in say Garfield, Fairview, Bergenfield or Lodi, you should wait until you can afford to step up to a better town.It is not a snob issue, but rather a poor financial issue.
One can plan to start in those towns and move up, however the reality is in a declining market, those towns get slammed even harder as far as price declines.
That being said, I also believe that Fairlawn and Paramus are probably 2 of the most under rated and or under appreciated towns in BC, because they do nto havethe snob appeal.
And people could find themselves stuck in those towns for years before being able to move up.
203 –
true, but people are not putting their homes on the market.
#207 The invntory in my town is rising fairly rapidly.Many more housess on the market this year then at same time last year.
207
True, but there are more homes on the market than ever.
#198 grim
“North Jersey inventory is high for this time of year. Roughly up 4% as compared to last year.”
that’s good news. I just don’t see many people putting their homes on the market in hunterdon. they’re waiting for the bailout.
210,
Or Spring…
209
njpatient –
I’m just not patient. I know these things take a while, but my wife wants to buy now. It’s getting hard to not buy an overpriced home and get it over with. I guesst that’s what the NAR is hoping for…
true, but people are not putting their homes on the market.
I’m not sure I understand..
If I pull the new single family listings for North Jersey for 2/1 thru 2/8, from GSMLS, I get a number greater than 1500.
One thousand five hundred new listings in a little over a week.
I’m not saying this rate of increase is higher or lower than the historic rate of increase, only that it doesn’t jive with your observation that “people aren’t putting their homes on the market”.
Ready to Buy Says:
I just don’t see many people putting their homes on the market in hunterdon.
IMO, the problem is that there just aren’t that many houses to begin with in Hunterdon. It’s primarily rural and any homes built in the last 10 years have been of the McMansion variety or condo developments. Until the last 5 years or so, not that many people even considered moving there. The urban sprawl of NY is finally creeping over the county lines.
212 ready
I completely understand – I’m Patient and even I’m not patient. Be like bergenbuyer, TJ, others on the board who’ve bought recently; make yourself a game plan that you’re comfortable with. There are some decent bargains out there, I think, if you’re careful. I think the bargains will continue to get better for another 18 months to three years, however.
“Fruity Cheerios are a lame attempt at Fruit Loops.”
The above statement offers ample proof of just how slow the RE market really is.
#133 – teach your kid to defen him/herself.
http://www.violentacres.com/archives/64/how-to-fight
I’m shrimpy – 5’1″ In 8th grade I had some bully-girls hounding me. One day after school one of them challenged me and grabbed my hair and shoved her palm in my face grinding my upper lip onto my braces.
Even as I was bleeding, I grabbed my lip and pulled it off my braces, spraying blood everywhere. I didn’t even notice the pain-I never cried- everyone else was gaping as I slowly, calmly walked up to her and cold-c0cked her.
My father taught me to punch, not slap.
I closed my fist and punched her hard enough to rip the skin over her eye open and give her a shiner (and me a bruised set of 3rd and 4th knuckles.)
Neither she nor her “gang” every bothered me again.
Sometimes it just takes ONCE.
sl
What are the street addresses of GSMLS 2460039 and 2455328?
Both are in Pisc zip 08854. Thanks.
sl #217,
You go girl.
3b
I think overall, all the prices may be inflated, but I’m not sure the differences are.
But I see your point, and that is why even the towns that are regarded as top-tier aren’t insulated from price drops, despite what some people who live there may think. While people will pay a premium to live there, there is a limit to the premium. As other towns drop, and the premium grows, even the top-tier towns will take a hit.
I guess at the end of the day, everyone tries to optimize the quality of house we can buy, with commuting distance, with school system.
And heck, if we’re naming towns that I wouldn’t buy in right now, I would add Bogota and Teaneck to that list. To the underrated town list, I would add Washington Township and Westwood. To the overrated towns list, I would put Mahwah at the top. But hey, just my opinion.
[206] Hey what’s wrong with Fairview!
Al,
I am guessing you are from eastern europe, perhaps a former soviet republic.
Regarding rich kids and drugs….
I have seen most of the spectrum, went to a “bad, aka poor” school for a bit and then an upper middle class semi wealthy public school. I also had several friends at pingry and delbarton.
My observation is that drugs are no different then alcohol. Both the poor and the rich drink, its just that the poor drink colt 45 and the rich drink DOM. I saw the same effect with drugs in the different level of schools.
The main difference is the violent and criminal aspects. In rich schools/ families such recreational habits are generally kept low key and under cover so s to fit in with your “rich” image. This often precludes violent and criminal activity (ignoring the actual legality of the recreational substances). When such behavior does pop up, it is often swiftly dealt with.
In “poor” schools, there is no such “image” restraints and there is very little reaction when violent/criminal behavior occurs because the poor people cant help it (not my opinion, just a discussion of what i have seen). Drugs can also offer income/advancement opportunities that may not appear to be readily available other wise. In rich schools drugs hold no means of advancement compared to their families financial and educational status/ability.
Drugs are every where, in all schools. Mankind has used various substances to alter his state of mind longer then recorded history. My personal opinion is that like food, or shopping or anything else, the use of mind altering substances (whether it be alcohol acid, coke, etc)is only a problem when they are abused and not used in moderation and without accounting for consequences.
grim (213)-
One of the ways Realtors pressure buyers is to confuse the anecdotal with the factual.
If a buyer says to his agent, “seems like there’s no new homes coming to market”, there are a helluva lot of agents who will run with that.
After one week of the XHB vs. SRS battle.
I’m up 10% to BIs 1% gain.
But of course, neither of us are up anything until we sell.
sl (217)-
I would’ve paid money (for a whole host of reasons) to have witnessed that.
I now think of you as sort of a female Buster Douglas.
“One of the ways Realtors pressure buyers is to confuse the anecdotal with the factual. ”
What Mrs. Patient refers to as “anecdata”.
212 Ready to Buy
It is scary right now, we just did it and I was shaking signing those papers. It’s hard to feel good about buying right now.
You just have to be ok with the price that you are paying and more importantly, make sure you are buying something that you can live in for a long time, through whatever life may throw your way. Not sure your life situation, but if kids/marriage and all that are in your plan, make sure you buy something that can accomodate that. If a home can’t accomodate your life for the next ten years or more, then rent.
Don’t underbuy thinking that you can buy up in a few years, you may not be able to. Buy something that if they bury you in the backyard, that would be ok with you.
“I now think of you as sort of a female Buster Douglas.”
Don’t be mad, sl, he meant that as a compliment.
Stu (224)-
I’m sitting where I started on my XHB short.
Note the recent absence of bi, crowing about XHB’s stellar outperformance. Guess Toll’s statements this week rattled our little bi-pal.
[173] Oh, and there is no such thing as the Mafia. That’s just folklore.
224 Stu
bi doesn’t hold for as long as a week…
If a buyer says to his agent, “seems like there’s no new homes coming to market”, there are a helluva lot of agents who will run with that.
Nice catch there, yet another reason why I’m a terrible Realtor.
I had a similar situation to Sl. I got smacked around by a an older bigger kid in 9th grade while his buddies watched. The point is that for every hit i took i gave back just as good. I never had a problem after that as true bullies only go after easy or perceived easy targets. fight back and they loose interest.
terror strikes the ladies of near-NYC suburbia:
Botox Faces FDA Safety Review
By JENNIFER CORBETT DOOREN
February 8, 2008 12:10 p.m.
WASHINGTON — The Food and Drug Administration said Friday it was conducting a safety review of Allergan Inc.’s Botox and a similar product, Myobloc, after receiving reports of deaths and breathing problems in some patients.
although in this day and age try to fight back against a bully and a school is just as likely to have assault charges pressed against your kid as the would the bully.
patient (231)-
Can’t hold when you’re getting margined out.
[235] I’d rather have my kid fight back and I’ll take my chances with the juvenile court.
Re gangs:
When my son was in 8th and the prospect of our high school was nearing.. shaking in my boots is an understatment. This is a child who is intimidated walking by a group of old ladies. Taking a ride by the high school scared the cr#p out me. However he is now a sophmore in a high school with way to many wannabees. The stories that were circulated from parents that already decided they were sending there kids to the catholic school were so over the top they bordered on outragous, you were left feeling bullet proof vests were must have on your back to school shopping list. There are 2 languages taught at the catholic school, you can take japanese at this public school, the programs available in this public school are over and above, they have great teachers, and a helpful and friendly staff. My old ladie fearing son is very comfortable going to school everyday. These kids that dress and walk and talk like gangsters can be very scary to adults, kids have a better handle on whats “real” in their world. I have no answer to the wannabe thing, I don’t know what thats about, but there is a differenc between looking like a gangster and being one.
KL
skep (234)-
You mean injecting deadly toxins into your face isn’t safe?
I can’t believe I might be able to take long term gains in SRS. That would be unreal, but August is still very far away. I have already taken some short-term taxable gains and have no losses so far this year to write it off against.
Even smarter than shorting RE or the HBs was moving my families 401Ks into bonds back in August. I know it’s dangerous to try to time the market, but with pending bank failures, it seemed like a no brainer.
Disclaimer: Fruity Pebbles, although tastier than Fruit Loops and the aforementioned Fruity Cheerios is really just colorful Rice Krispies. I’m surprised Kellogg’s never thought of it. Hands down, Boo Berry rocked all of ’em.
I’ve often wondered how homes prices in a place like Westfield will do in a downturn, relative to more reasonably priced towns. It seems to me that when buying in certain towns you have to be careful about over paying for the “premium” that sellers in the town might feel entitled to.
Some towns do have attributes that make them more desirable and so buyers are willing to pay that premium. But during a bubble like the one we are coming out of, not only do the underlying housing prices get inflated, the premiums get inflated too. So you end up with really ridiculous prices instead of just “moderately ridiculous” prices.
Being in such a town does offer some protection against price drops – after all, they are still more desirable relative to other places. And since foreclosures can have a downward spiral on neighborhoods, that protection can add up.
But so called “premium towns” will still have to lower their prices just like everybody else, partly because of the inflated house price and partly because of the inflated premium. I have no idea how much or in what ratio. And sellers in such towns might be the last hold outs for lowering prices believing they are somehow exempt from the market dynamics.
222 kettle
I enjoyed your analysis, very interesting.
jam (237)-
Damn straight. I told my son to get his money’s worth if he has to fight back against a bully: teeth on ground, blood spilled, broken bones.
If I’m gonna get sued, I want value for dollar spent!
Seems like a lot of posters here think that the “gangs” in Bergen are just wannabees and kids looking like gang members.
Bergen isn’t an innner city location, but there is money in Bergen and that attracts gangs. And there are real gangs in this county.
Catholic and private schools may not be the answer for many, but the kids have to take an entrance exam and there is the 10K + a year that keeps the true gang members out.
Clot; here is one Realtors response to seeing the Schiller chart (the one showing exploding prices over the last decade adjusted for inflation) which had been used to show that prices (and in some way affordability) were out of whack:
“I’ve seen the graph many times and if you’re looking at a graph to predict the future of the market, then you’re getting into a Technical Analysis type of prediction, which is not a precise science, and many in the stock market call it voodoo science. Many do use it as a supplement to Fundamental Analysis; and it is useful to see where history has been, but must be used with caution to predict the future.
In using Technical Analysis in the stock market, historically, any retreat of a rapid build up is usually followed by up to a 50% decline, which is where the stock has the most support. It’s then followed by a flattening, and then another upswing. the upswing may test the top a few times until the resistance has gone, before it continues to higher ground.
However, it all depends on the fundamentals. To make a blanket statement such as K374 does that “what goes up will come down” is to ignore the techniques of both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis. We can see that the Fundamental Analysis being made by different economists and stock brokerage companies is all over the map with different predictions being made by each person. ”
Just thought you’d enjoy it.
[243] hey and if you own a home, your homeowners may cover you in the event of a lawsuit! Yet another great reason to buy.
Steve (241)-
Sounds like the town brainwashing patrol hasn’t gotten to you yet.
SUBPRIME IS “YESTERDAY’S NEWS”
Dimon said JPMorgan is expanding its balance sheet with subprime and “jumbo” mortgages, the latter of which are too large to be bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
“The subprime thing is almost yesterday’s news,” he said. “I don’t think there is too much more pain you can have. I personally think that subprime is not a bad thing. It’s something that went to excess.”
Less likely to recover is demand for complex debt such as collateralized debt obligations and a wide variety of mortgage- and asset-backed securities, where Dimon expects “materially reduced” issuance compared with earlier in the decade.
“All these problems that have cropped up … they’re getting resolved,” Dimon said. “Eventually, supply and demand will find a common ground. I don’t know when that’s going to be, maybe six months or nine months.”
Even if credit markets recover, Dimon expects some products to disappear, including CDOs of CDOs and structured investment vehicles. Tight credit could weigh on JPMorgan’s investment bank, which could face “a tough time” in 2008, he said.
We have a tough gang here in Brigadoon. They are called the “Roughians”. They threaten to turn you in if you don’t keep your grass cut short enough. Sometimes they leave overdue library books on your windshield as a warning.
lisoosh (245)-
If you hadn’t told me, I’d have thought the person who said that was George Bush.
Steve[241],
My best guess is that the ratio is the same, regardless of the snooty factor of the town.
Using my multi-family in semi-snooty Montclair (we have diversnooty) as an example and judging by comps (which I am very well versed as we are nearing the end of our county prop. tax appeal), my home peaked in value around 625K and is now probably worth 550K. This is a drop of about 9%. If you compared that to property values on average across Jersey, we are right in the ballpark.
From an investment standpoint, you are better off picking up a home in a less ‘premium’ town as you won’t have to lock up as much downpayment (which could be working for you elsewhere) and your taxes should be significantly lower (No equity builds in taxes).
“Disclaimer: Fruity Pebbles, although tastier than Fruit Loops and the aforementioned Fruity Cheerios is really just colorful Rice Krispies. ”
With sugar!!
KL, high school kids have been wearing droopy drawers, puffy jackets, hooded sweats, all black, cornrows, etc. since at least the mid-eighties. I remember when Manhattan was all abuzz because the Bloods and the Crips were coming to town! And then there were the Deceptacons! If tagging was evidence of gang activity, then Manhattan in the ’70s would have been Gangland Central and “Warriors” would have been more than just a movie.
jam (246)-
Great. A put option beneath an ass-kicking.
Only in America.
patient (252)-
You mean “Warriors” wasn’t real?
#227 Ann
“It is scary right now, we just did it and I was shaking signing those papers. It’s hard to feel good about buying right now. ”
Thanks for the advise. We’ve been thinking ahead… Looking for the place that has potential for expansion. But how are you suppossed to really know where you’ll be in 15 years? Maybe 5-8 years.
I grew up in Bergen County (Closter) graduated HS in the early 90’s, loved growing up in the area. After graduating college, moved in with a couple of buddies into NYC and have never left. My wife and I are now thinking about moving back to Bergen, things have changed so much that we are unware of what towns are still good and ones that have turned bad…… from reading all the posts on here (btw excellent site) many towns have changed….. which are the top 10 towns in Bergen to live and raise a family?
“I’ve often wondered how homes prices in a place like Westfield will do in a downturn”
People will be shocked, SHOCKED, to discover that there isn’t even a direct line into the city!!!!
254 clot
lol
whatta flick
btw, teeth on the ground is fine in self defense. Fighting back is a must.
lisoosh (245)-
Obvious the problem with the Fundamental vs. Technical analysis is that the two are completely unrelated in the market.
TA ignores fundamentals and fundamental analysis ignores TA. Now what you see in housing is a very bad TA with horrible fundamentals. Although unrelated, they are both pointing to a continued drop.
Personally, I think TA is mostly what losers use to justify having made bad trades. In the long term, it’s fundamentals that drive earnings and earnings that drive stock valuations. Fundamentals never lie (if the books aren’t cooked).
“Seems like a lot of posters here think that the “gangs” in Bergen are just wannabees and kids looking like gang members.”
Yes. That’s what I’m saying. I’m also saying that there are plenty of criminals, and there are plenty of criminals who come in twos and threes and fours.
There aren’t gangs in the Bloods and Crips, sense, however.
By the way, remind me to show you the Bloods’ hand signal at the GTG. You’ll love it!
I still love that everyone on this board throws around middle class. There is no middle class salary wise it is a state of mind that is hard to define. When my family was dirt poor we washed and touched up our old used car the best we could each week. My Mom always said no matter how poor you are you can afford soap and a needle and a thread and you should take pride in what you have. She would never admit to being poor shw was Middle Class. Someone I work with makes a very nice multi million dollar salary and lives in a 600k split, drives an american minivan and shops at Kohls. He has a middle class mentality.
I make enough so I won’t be getting a check this year and drive a ten year old car and is basically cheap all around even with other people’s money. Hiring an accountant, a gardner, a maid and driving a new car are stuff the rich do not me. Like the guy at work if I made a million dollars a year I would still be middle class.
261
There’s financial class and lifestyle; I think you’re conflating the two.
Poor people who lever up to buy a McMansion and an Escalade would otherwise be Upper Class in your definition.
Keep an eye out for the Van Buren Boys while shopping around Ridgewood!
Don’t forget to show them “the sign”…
There are those for whom middle class is more than a state of mind. I don’t make enough to be rich, or to even live like I’m rich. I have no choice but to be middle class.
Well, that’s not true. I could sell my cars and home and go live under a bridge and pretend I’m poor.
#255 It’s hard to feel good about buying right now. ”
Then why buy?
#210 ready they’re waiting for the bailout.
What bailout? A bailout that will stop prices from declining;that is not happening.
Dollar falls sharply after OPEC says it may abandon the dollar in favor of the Euro.
RE: “rebate” checks
Avoiding AC the weekend after those checks hit the mailboxes.
#267 do you have link for the opec/dollar story?
255
Eh, you never really know. Life happens. My point was not to buy something you know can’t last you the long haul, it’s better to rent something like that. Example. We bought a smallish townhouse in 2001 that we outgrew as soon as we moved in and had a kid. We lucked out on the market timing, but had we done that in 2006, we wouldn’t have been able to move up without losing money.
Clotpoll Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 11:10 am
x (152)-
“The place seems cold and lonely.”
If so, then I want to be cold and lonely.
I’m with you, Clot…gimme cold and lonely Tewksbury anyday…The only gunshots you hear are those of hunters. The only traffic is from horses crossing the road. And neighbors using your property are never found out because you have no idea where your property ends and they have no idea where theirs begins, either…
Of course, it goes without saying that my shrink friend has told me she writes more scripts for Tewks clients than all her other patients put together.
They have a drug problem? That’s it! I’ve written off Tewksbury, now.
Stu – 259 –
Personally I think the guy was just trying to avoid the subject.
He then went into a long winded diatribe about a couple who had new cars and wanted a bigger house than they could afford. All to prove that the “problem” with the market today is that buyers have over inflated expectations and if they would only work harder and make more money they could afford anything.
My personal analysis is that he is a delusional moron who is still drinking the kool-aid and probably has a bunch of investment properties he can’t sell off. Either that or his second career as a Realtor is looking like a bust.
3b
Why buy and not feel good about it? I think I’ve gone into all of our reasons on here already, but it made sense for us with the relo, school situation etc. The thing is, it’s not going to feel good for a while, but it doesn’t mean that all people shouldn’t. And it also felt good buying during the boom, but it didn’t mean that was a good move financially.
#267 do you have link for the opec/dollar story?
I didn’t get it across the internet. Came across the Reuters screen.
here you go, Steve:
http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSNYH00064020080208
256
I don’t know about top 10, but towns that are regarded as “nice” are Ridgewood, Ramsey, Allendale, Mahwah, Ho-Ho-Kus, Montvale, Oradell, Tenafly, Wyckoff, Franklin Lakes, Oakland, Park Ridge. I think Washington Township and Westwood are nice too. Upper Saddle River, Saddle River. Glen Rock. I’m sure I’m missing a bunch.
news originated at the Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7294120
njpatient Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
“With sugar!!”
These days, sugar is a good thing.
I was looking for jam/jelly for the kids PB&J’s that wasn’t super expensive gourmet stuff but EVERYTHING was full of HFCS. The no-sugar stuff is even more revolting. Then I checked out plain Smuckers Low-Sugar which it turns out isjust fruit, sugar and a spot of pectin, the way jam is actually supposed to be made.
Took a good 20 minutes just to find food with regular sugar, not any super processed by-products. Same problem with yoghurt. Regular sugar is now a gourmet item.
And in the summer I make my own jams and jellies.
Kids won’t touch it unless I put it in commercial jars. Typical.
Definitely jumping the RE shark today.
276
what about paramus? it’s got really low taxes and the houses are priced better than those in your aforementioned list…
how’s the mass transit into the city from there?
#272 Ann: My apologies, i realized after I posted, that my comment was not directed to you.
Congratulations on your purchase.
Clot/KL,
GRI, thoughts/opinions?
Where’s Bi and the Pretard been lately? Another meeting of the intelligent and wealthy New York area residents I wasn’t invited to?
“egular sugar is now a gourmet item.”
That’s because it’s more expensive.
What do you think was the impetus behind the New Coke? Low priced Corn Syrup.
Of course now ol’ president Chimp is trying his best to make corn syrup more pricey through his moronic ethanol subsidies.
Perhaps the New Coke will become Coke Classic and Coke Classic will become the New Coke. You dig?
The point is that for every hit i took i gave back just as good. I never had a problem after that as true bullies only go after easy or perceived easy targets. fight back and they loose interest.
It’s not that I don’t agree wholeheartly with that statement, but life has taught me that people are different, some just do not fight back. This is a constant struggle I have with my son. I offered him a reward if he was suspended for fighting back, giving a nice expletive, or even a nice shove for a smart a## remark given to him. He never took me up on it and probaly never will. Those problems were worse in the 6th to 8th grade level. They are minimal for him in high school, minimal not gone. There is no doubt in my mind he would have experienced the same in any school he went to, private, haugtyville, catholic, any school.
KL
“what about paramus?”
Where will you go shopping there? I heard they have little choice of retail outlets in Paramus.
Stu – I prefer Pepsi. And only Diet/caffeine free (hate the taste of sugary soda).
But otherwise I dig :-).
“yoghurt”
I forgot you were a brit, soosh.
My bro has started canning out of his garden; I’ll have to warn him what’ll happen when he has kids.
280
I don’t know anything, but I haven’t heard anything bad, about Paramus, except that there is lots of shopping there. : )
city-data.com has a forum that is another good website to dig up info on specific towns.
Also, urbandictionary.com is strangely accurate IMO when it comes to describing towns.
anecdote from a friend of mine, resulting from my telling him I was planning to wait a little longer before buying:
“Good. I bought my first apartment out of law school [in Manhattan] in 1989. I sold it in 1992 for exactly half what I’d paid for it.”
Don’t tell pretorius.
[260] The message was needed at Becton, according to East Rutherford juvenile and school resource officer Sergeant Paul Cece. He said gangs are not a problem in the borough, but the presence is there. He said a proactive approach is needed to prevent a problem that is spiraling out of control in New Jersey. Detective Hector Carter of the Bergen County Prosecutor’s Office Gang Unit concurred, claiming East Rutherford or even the South Bergenite coverage area is not immune to gangs.
As an example Carter referred to 15-year-old Teaneck resident Ricky Lee Smith, Jr. who was gunned down in 2006 by a 17-year-old member of the Paterson Bloods. Word on the street that night was that the Bloods were going to show up and “anyone that messed with them, they were going to take care of them.” There is also the case of former St. Mary’s High School student Monica Penalba who was repeatedly stabbed and run over by a member of the Latin Kings in 2005 after she witnessed a murder. The once promising softball standout now has one eye, loss of use to one arm and is awaiting trial for her affiliation to the murder and the Latin Kings gang activi
patient – I realized I used the Brit spelling just after I posted.
I’m pretty good, but occasionally will OU my color or favor or use “ise” instead of “ize” and have been known to sign a cheque or two.
I also confused my daughter in her kindergarten homework when I pronounced vase as “vaz”. I can roll my “r”s on demand too.
Can’t wait to have homegrown fruits and veggies from a garden.
[260] Posted by Coleus
On News/Activism 11/22/2007 6:16:47 PM PST · 30 replies
northjersey.com ^ | November 16, 2007 | JASON TSAI
Juan Rosario is surrounded by officers in this July 2006 picture. “I’ll put a bomb in your car,” witnesses said a reputed Latin Kings member told an assistant prosecutor in open court on Thursday. Those in the Hackensack courtroom for a routine hearing said they weren’t sure who reputed capo Juan Rosario of Passaic was talking to at first, but then he made it clear — pointing at the Assistant Bergen County Prosecutor. “Now he’s got another charge of terroristic threats on him,” said Bergen County Prosecutor John L. Molinelli.Rosario, 47, known as “King Black Rose,”…
[260] I guess I stand corrected.
The New Jersey Gang, Jam, Alternative Energy, and Stroller Report
[260] Teaneck has a violent crime rate of 187 incidents per 100,000 people, compared to a rate of 391 in New Jersey as a whole and 596 nationwide. Teaneck’s property crime rate is 1860.6 incidents per 100,000 people, compared to an average of 2533.8 in New Jersey and 4296 nationally.[23]
Gang violence hit Teaneck in July 2006 with the death of Ricky Lee Smith, Jr., a teenager shot outside a house party by a member of the Bloods gang who had attended the party. Other gang violence involving the Bloods and Crips has erupted since then. In May 2007, the Chief of Police requested the addition of 14 new officers to Teaneck’s existing 98-member police force to establish a gang unit.
From Wikipedia:
Yakuza are heavily involved in sex-related industries, smuggling pornography from Europe and America into Japan. They also control large prostitution rings throughout the country. In China, where the law restricts the amount of children per household and the cultural preference is for boys, the yakuza can buy unwanted girls for as little as $5,000 and put them to work in the mizu shōbai, which means ‘water trade’ and refers to the night entertainment business, in yakuza-controlled bars, nightclubs and restaurants. The Philippines are another source of young women. Yakuza trick girls from impoverished villages into coming to Japan, where they are promised respectable jobs with good wages. Instead, they are forced into becoming prostitutes and strippers. Often the girls succumb to the demands of their pimps, since they are earning more money than they ever could in the Philippines
[260] According to reports released by the New Jersey State Police and the National Crime Data Bank, the crime rate in New Jersey is at it’s lowest since the 1960’s. However the number of murders, as well as the amount of gang related crime is higher than ever. Incidents of gang crime, including gang graffiti, murder, robbery and drug dealing are on the rise and have spread from the inner cities of Newark and Camden to the leafy suburban streets of towns such as Teaneck and Willingboro. Gangs such as the Bloods and Crips, the MS-13 and the 18th Street Gang.
sorry Grim, its just that people should know that the problem is indeed real.
“Good. I bought my first apartment out of law school [in Manhattan] in 1989. I sold it in 1992 for exactly half what I’d paid for it.”
patient,
Not an isolated incident. I know a few who sent their keys back. Their condo’s were down between 30-50%. They bought around 87-88.
295 It has a nice, stable ring to it, but I’d switch gang to the end. Or at least use comic sans.
“grim Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
The New Jersey Gang, Jam, Alternative Energy, and Stroller Report”
Hey, at least it is a well rounded blog.:-)
ya’ll is grim.
Long term index investors: From 1999 up to present day, the S&P 500 has produced roughly a zero % return. Real returns, down approx 20-25%.
I’m hoping for a good turnout tomorrow night.
I thought the biggest selling point of NJ was the gangs. Aren’t you guys famous for the Soparanos? Or is it the Mafia is cool and the bloods and crips are uncool? Maybe you guys can get HBO do a show on the other gangs in NJ now that the Soparanos are off the air?
BC that is a KOOOOKY STAT!! If you put a lump sum in the S&P 500 in 1999 and left it yes you would be at zero percent. But most people dollar cost average in and the 2001-2005 purchases would make it a heck of a lot better.
If you bought a house in Bergen county at the peak of the late 1980’s real estate bubble and held it to date and you adjusted it for inflation I bet it looks like a crap investment. But there are not that many people go all in at one shot at the peak, well pre 2005 anyhow.
BC Bob Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Long term index investors: From 1999 up to present day, the S&P 500 has produced roughly a zero % return. Real returns, down approx 20-25%.
#235
Just heard of new legislation that schools can get involved in cyber-bullying even if it occurs outside school on the weekend. It doesn’t say they have to but says they can get involved. I am so sick of “big brother” getting more involved in our lives every day.
regarding oil and the euro/dollar.
Chavez and others on OPEC have been grumbling about going to the euro for a couple of years and put on a very public spectacle of such a discussion this past summer.
While Opec would love to drop the dollar as the petro currency there isnt much in the way of alternatives. There seems to be serious question as to how stable the euro will be long term and there is not enough euro volume for it to replace the value of dollars that are used in the petro trade, even at the current exchange rates. On top of all that, if the US dollar is dropped as the petro currency the US dollar will pretty much hyper inflate overnight and you would crash the US financial system. Nobody wants that to happen because, as much as some countries may not like us, they all know that our financial systems are intimately intertwined and a crash of the US would devastate world markets for a number of reason. Oh and non of the asian currencies makes a good candidate either also for many reason 9 and i do not want to write a book here.
And on top of that OPEC has come to the conclusion that if the US is backed into a corner with regard to oil that we could switch our primary energy sources to non-oil sources within 8-10 years. This would remove one of their biggest customers from the market and they are not willing to do that so far. Its just band business.
Long story short. OPEC would love to move to a different petro currency then the US dollar, but they are just as tied to the US dollar being the petro currency as the US is.
jam: The State Police paper on gangs in NJ is available on their website. They are very clear that the study is subjective and even point out that some activity may be exaggerated.
Some quotes:
“Gang presence in New Jersey is widespread, but generally ‘thin on the ground’ –meaning that although many (43%) municipalities report the presence of gangs, the size of gangs in these towns is usually (84%) relatively small (fewer than 50 members, and often more like a dozen).
Types of Crimes:
Assaults and aggravated assaults are the most common violent crimes reported. Sexual assaults are relatively rare.
Types of gang theft crimes reported tend to be ‘crimes of opportunity’ or ‘impulse crimes’ rather than crimes requiring planning, resources or organization.
Drug crimes constitute almost half of all criminal activity attributed to gangs.
Retail sales of marijuana and cocaine make up the largest proportion of narcotics crimes attributed to gang members.
Gangs in Schools:
Almost two-thirds of respondents report 3 gang incidents or fewer on their school property over the past 12 months.
The most common activity mentioned was the displaying of gang colors/signs.
Violent crime in schools (aggravated assault, attempted homicide, homicide) is very rare.
Gang structures:
Gangs are not monolithic, centrally-directed organizations. Many are local ‘franchises’ using the ‘brand name.’
The 2007 Gang Survey, like those that preceded it, is a survey that measures perceptions of the New Jersey gang environment at the municipal level. Individual perceptions can vary for many reasons. Responses are subjective, reflecting an individual survey respondent’s perception based on his/her training and experience. An officer who has received gang awareness training may be more likely to report the presence of gangs in his or her jurisdiction if he or she is able to interpret gang indicia that other officers do not observe or notice.
In addition, the presence or perceived presence of gangs can have significant political, economic and social consequences for municipalities. In some cases, depending on the circumstances of a particular time and place, a political rationale may exist to either deny –or exaggerate– the presence of gangs.”
kettle,
A basket of currencies.
Clott, grim whoever.
If i buy a property in morris county would highland regulations or other local regulation prevent me from removing trees from the lot? not all of them, just some
Gift Cards-
I use mine as soon as I get them. It doesn’t matter if it’s for a milk, Tide, or a new hammer. I’m so afraid of losing them, I try to spend them ASAP. They thought of giving Target the money for free is my motivation.
BC Bob,
While a basket of currencies may alleviate the currency volume issue, you still have the high probability of crashing the US financial system, as even if that basket of currencies includes the SU dollar central banks around the world would dump HUGE numbers of dollars back into the market. I believe estimates put it at close to 3-5 trillion US dollars could be dumped on the currency markets in a matter of days or months is such a switch occurred.
I am not an expert on this, but i did taste my sons apple and pear puree this morning, mmmmm apples and pears…….
[309] Bottom line is its a problem and its here. Fortunately Bergen is proactive. I’m not going to convince anyone its a problem if they don’t think it is – and I’m not going to try.
Let’s talk about real estate.
Life was simpler in the 50’s & 60’s in Brooklyn, but gangs and violence still existed. My local High School was Manual Training HS which later became John Jay HS. As Manual Training HS the movie Blackboard Jungle was filmed there. As John Jay HS, Yankee’s Joe Pepitone was shot in the locker room there. Because I attended a Catholic Elementary School, I bypassed the local HS and graduated from Brooklyn Tech HS, where the worst thing that occurred was cutting the last days of school, when the attendance office was closed. I can remember though, an entire Surveyors Class getting mugged in Fort Greene Park one day, accross from the school. Tech itself, 6000 students, was perfectly safe. There are always good schools to attend, if you have the proper direction, and can find them.
I’m not a big contributor, but me and another lurker are going to try to stop by tomorrow night.
jam
293
“a REPUTED Latin Kings member”
291
no links – here’s why
from the same article, line 3: “Garrett himself admits the group wasn’t a gang by name”
Also, to put in context your quote above: “The message was needed at Becton, according to East Rutherford juvenile and school resource officer Sergeant Paul Cece. He said gangs are not a problem in the borough”
I’d note that the local kids were skeptical as well:
“Becton senior Jennifer Henkelman said she was taken a little off guard by the dramatic angle taken by the presenters, but found the program beneficial in the end. “It was very surprising, shocking. I don’t think anybody was really expecting that,” she said.”
Three invididual examples does not constitute data.
so, vis 294, yes, you stand corrected.
Kettle1 (311),
From what I’ve seen in Bergen County tree removal is regulated at the town level.
Some require permits to remove ANY trees and others require permits if you want to remove over a certain percentage of trees.
Rich
294 jam
Lastly, and for what its worth, getting your research from Freerepublic.com is hardly weighty with authority.
296 jam
I missed this one: “Gang violence hit Teaneck in July 2006 with the death of Ricky Lee Smith, Jr.,” but since it’s the same example you gave at 291 I can only conclude that you’re short on examples.
From the LAPD’s website:
“Gangs are not a new phenomenon. During the last five years, there were over 23,000 verified violent gang crimes in the City of Los Angeles. These include 784 homicides, nearly 12,000 felony assaults, approximately 10,000 robberies and just under 500 rapes. ”
They can come up with more than four examples (two of them the same) over the previous three years.
Financials Bearing the Brunt of Latest Sell-Off 2:36 p.m. 02/08/2008 Stocks that have a connection to the nation’s mortgage woes are leading indices downward, suggesting clear concern among investors about the direction of the economy.
The New York Stock Exchange Financial Sector index was down 1.86%, about twice the Dow Jones industrial average’s .68% drop. The S&P 500 index was down .58%, while the Nasdaq composite index was back into postitive territory, up .15%.
Banks were down across the board led by Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) down 1.10 (4.17%) at 25.29; Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA) down 0.63 (4.50%) at 13.38; Washington Mutual Inc. (WM) down 0.67 (3.60%) at 17.92; Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) 1.19 (3.91%) at 29.25.
Among brokerages, GS, JPM, MER, and MS were all down 2% or more.
Question for Clot, KL, JB and other realtors here. You have a client who wants to trade up right now – would you let them buy before they sell?
Forbes:
Look Out Below
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2008/0225/036a.html?partner=yahoomag
GSEs in a fantastic position to take on billions in subprime jumbos.
From the AP:
Analyst: Fannie Mae faces worse credit
Shares of Fannie Mae fell Friday as a Morgan Stanley said he expects it to report decaying credit quality in its portfolio, a worrying sign that the meltdown in subprime lending may be spilling over into prime mortgage.
In November, Fannie Mae disclosed about 0.9 percent of its single-family mortgage loan portfolio was “seriously delinquent.” Morgan Stanley analyst Kenneth Posner wrote in a client report he expects this rate crept up to 1 percent in December. His “Underweight” rating on Fannie Mae is predicated on deteriorating credit quality.
…
“Credit quality is now deteriorating sharply even for prime mortgages,” Posner said, referring to home loans issued to people with good credit. “Delinquency trends and transition rates have deteriorated in the last few months at an accelerating pace.”
3b
do you disagree with he impacts of the petro dollar change????
Kettle1:
There is a good chance that the dollar rebounds a bit and the PetroEuro debate will become an afterthought.
stu,
i disagree to a point, the euro/us petro dollar debate is more then pure economics. OPEC would like to do it just to put a bee in our bonnet
“GSEs in a fantastic position to take on billions in subprime jumbos.”
This is such a bad idea it makes my brain bleed, grim.
[319] It was a quick search – yes two examples were the same. Tell you what, I spend alot of time in the criminal justice system and it amazes us that there are people out there that just don’t see what’s going on around them. But that’s what gangs and other criminal look for – people just like you.
Also, I would hope that LA can come up with more examples than I could for Bergen County – was anyone else surprised by that?
330 jam
There are plenty of “and other criminals” in NJ, and there will be far more as the economy goes in the cr@pper, but not so much with the gangs, unless you’re speaking purely colloquially.
How many drive-by shootings were there last year in Bergen? 2006?
Check this out:
http://www.lapdonline.org/get_informed/content_basic_view/24435
“But that’s what gangs and other criminal look for – people just like you.”
Too funny.
Jam,
…I spend alot of time in the criminal justice system…
You keep getting caught?
;p
re: (324) Stu
Get it right from the source. Roubini has a his own blog and he does not pull any punches on it.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
Drive by shootings – which define gang activity on your tv set – are not the tell tale sign of gang activity going on around you.
Listen, I’m not saying that the Bloods and the Crips are hanging out on your door step, but they are here.
Also, those groups of 3 or 4 kids who are wannabees are looking to enhance their reputations by impressing each other and yes, gang members through involvement in criminal activity. I would suggest you should be very mindful of them as well. If it looks like and acts like a duck but doesn’t call itself a duck – its still a duck.
But again back to real estate – there’s nothing to see here. No gang activity. And again there is no such thing as the mafia.
kettle,
I wasn’t suggesting that OPEC would change to a basket. My point was the discussion was centered on a basket of currencies, not a total abandonment of the dollar. A peg with the dollar representing approx 70% is the talk.
331 Jam
“Also, I would hope that LA can come up with more examples than I could for Bergen County – was anyone else surprised by that?”
LA has 10 times the population, so I presume, comparing with LA stats, that Bergen must be coming up with nearly one tenth the gang violence?
So – how many drive-bys?
[333] esq
You have a client who wants to trade up right now – would you let them buy before they sell?
My role is to help my client make an educated and informed decision. I don’t have the right, nor am I in a position to dictate what my client should or shouldn’t do. If my client chooses to go a certain route, you can be sure that I’ve done my best to explain both the benefits and pitfalls of that decision. At that point my role is to help my client execute their decision, to the best of my ability.
(sales pitch off)
Most clients have made up their mind long before they talk to me.
[337] Not sure if a direct correlation to population exists for gang violence. what’s your source on that?
“Drive by shootings – which define gang activity on your tv set – are not the tell tale sign of gang activity going on around you.”
Really? The cops disagree. Again, from the LAPD website:
“The “drive-by” shooting is the most frequent violent crime committed by gangs. Members from one gang will seek out the homes, vehicles or hang-outs of a rival gang and, using an assortment of weapons, will drive by and shoot at members of that gang. Usually, the gang member will yell out the gang name or a slogan so the attacked gang will know who was responsible.”
Three or four kids together committing a crime doesn’t constitute a “gang.” Unless, reading Clot’s dice post and chi’s M-80 post you’d be concluding that they and their buddies were gang members.
If you ask me one killing in Bergen County is too many. That means they were here. Guess they left.
Also Bergen is a great place for “safe” houses.
340
source for what? Population? I’ve given you the link to drive-by shooting, carjacking and murder stats for LA.
“If you ask me one killing in Bergen County is too many. ”
Just so long as we’re clear what your position is.
grim (282)-
Useless. Just a sign that the agent has done enough lifetime transactions to get into the program.
Hey njpatient, let’s agree to disagree, but I truly hope you are right.
vodka (311)-
No, but a conservation easement might.
Sure thing, jam. We can toast the gangs tomorrow!
Now to get back to what really matters: what kind of jam is best. ;)
“[333] esq”
missed that.
Two lawyers arguing.
I’m shocked.
When you add up the real estate problems, dollar crisis, petro-Euro switch (plus tight oil supply), credit and bond insurer debacle, budget deficit, current account deficit, negative savings rate, inflation (it’s real) and oh yeah – the war(s) I feel like we are sitting on a powder keg. All we need is a spark and you get a movie-scene style series of explosions in the form of systemic failures.
The only good side I can see to this is that if the global economy really takes a hit, we’ll at least ease up on fossil fuels and global warming (I hope).
This whole thing really feels like a macro-trend to me, playing out over years. I guess we all need to be patient.
Let’s go back to debating the merits of fruit loops!
350 – hey it happens its what we do. Didn’t know you were an attorney.
Speaking of OPEC there is talk of them lowering production to protect the high oil prices. Not that long ago their target price was under $40 per barrel and now they are saying $70-$80 per barrel is unacceptable.
All the butt kissing G.W. Bush did last month in the middle east with his sword dancing with the Emirs and Princes did abosoultey nothing.
Bush should have taken Donald Trump’s advice while he was on that trip.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=eb1_1200605131
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVV.5LellTmE
BTW, the Highlands Act’s purpose is not to preserve the watershed.
Instead, it is to manipulate the value of vacant land by destroying the equity of the people who now own property within the affected zone.
“Get Rid of the Fat-Tails” — Mr. Dimon explained the goal has never been to hedge
away all risk, but it’s to avoid major losses. Given the high cost of subprime-related hedges and the absence of perfect offsets, it is impossible to nullify exposure.
Now let me ask my RE question again (since I buried it with all my OT posts – sorry):
Would any of the RE agents allow a client who was trading up to buy before selling (i.e., is it worse to make your purchase offer contingent on selling than it is to chance purchasing and then being forced to sell at who-knows-what price)?
What are you advising people?
(This is more curiosity than anything else, since I’m renting).
Re My role is to help my client make an educated and informed decision. I don’t have the right, nor am I in a position to dictate what my client should or shouldn’t do. If my client chooses to go a certain route, you can be sure that I’ve done my best to explain both the benefits and pitfalls of that decision. At that point my role is to help my client execute their decision, to the best of my ability.
Kinda like in the poor neighborhood near me the good drug dealers throw a pair of used tied sneakers over the nearest telephone to tell their new location. They don’t push drugs or sell near schools but rationalize they just sell the drugs to the people who would buy them anyhow.
Two lawyers arguing.
More than two of you here.
“I guess we all need to be patient.”
That’s ok. We can’t ALL be patient.
patient (323)-
My answer is much like Grim’s. “Let”? Pretty no much no client of mine ever follows my advice more than, say, 1/3 of the time. They do whatever it is they want to do, and nothing I do will stop them.
All I can do is give information to clients and follow their lawful instructions.
“grim Says:
February 8th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Two lawyers arguing.
More than two of you here.”
Quite a few – we had an a/s/l thread not too long ago – I was just unaware that jam was
JD is next on my list, I might just slum it over at SHU since they have a part-time program.
339; 346; clot/grim
OK – let me ask a different way. What would YOU do?
grim 353 is awaiting moderation
361 grim
you’ll have a blast, I’m certain of it. I don’t recommend the practice of law, but the study of it is no end of fun (certainly once you’ve started taking electives, but even the required course-work is fascinating).
I’ve seen a lot of deals fall through lately because a Buyer is still holding on to the home he has to sell.
Refinancing: Only for the privileged few
Sure, now is a great time to refinance – that is, if you can still qualify.
Here is what lenders are looking for.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The good news: mortgage rates are down. The bad news: it’s much harder to qualify for a refinanced loan these days.
What’s more, the borrowers who need to refinance the most – because their adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) are resetting to higher interest rates – are among those having the most trouble winning approvals.
“I’m turning away about 60% to 75% of the clients who come to me for a refi,” said Bob Moulton, president of Americana Mortgage Group on Long Island, N.Y. “Some don’t have enough equity and others have bad credit scores.”
During the boom years, lenders approved most anyone with a pulse. Not so today. Mortgage brokers recognize this and are now being very selective about the clients whose applications they choose to submit to the likes of Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) or Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500).
If an applicant has poor credit, or a home whose value is rapidly deteriorating, they’re just not going to bother.
“If the person is Sweet Polly Purebread – good income, good assets, high credit score – there’s money out there,” said Moulton. “But if not, then it’s harder.”
..
Total mortgage applications were up 73% last week from a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and 69%of those applications were for refis. Last February, when interest rates were about 6.3%, about 46% of applications were for refis.
The make-or-break metric for anyone looking to refinance right now is home equity – the difference between what is owed on a house and what the house is worth. But with home prices down, many homeowners have little of that precious commodity left.
“If you have an 80% loan, with a 10% home equity loan, you may not be able to refinance,” said Peter Grabel, a mortgage broker in Connecticut – especially in down markets.
Consider a homeowner who bought in Miami a year ago with 20% down. Home prices have fallen 15% there in the past year, wiping out three-quarters of the equity. Lenders, who want collateral that’s worth more than the value of the loan, are wary about having so little cushion. If they have to repossess and resell the house, they’re on the hook for a big loss.
“No lender would take that deal,” said Marc Savitt, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers. “It’s a lot different from two years ago.”
The bar has also been raised for credit scores when it comes to refinancing, according to Grabel. And sometimes, it’s not a matter of whether someone can get refinancing but at what price.
“Those with high credit scores are getting very good rates, but the lenders have heightened the requirements to qualify,” said Grabel. Instead of a score of 680 for the best rate, a borrower might need 700 now.
For example, Grabel has a client who wants a cash-out deal. The client has lots of equity in his house but a dismal credit score – 552.
“I used to have 20 lenders I could send him to; now there’s maybe one,” said Grabel. “The rate, though, will be high, higher than what he’s paying now.”
The only reason that this client will take that deal is because he’s going through a divorce and needs to buy his wife out of their home. He doesn’t have time to rebuild his credit rating, but he’s lucky that at least his house appraises well.
Indeed, appraisals are another tool that lenders are using to eliminate unqualified applicants.
“It used to be a formality,” said Grabel. “Now it’s, ‘Lets do the appraisal first and see what value comes in.” Lenders are scrutinizing them to a degree unheard of during the boom. They don’t want to lend $160,000 on an appraised value of $200,000 unless they’re sure the house is truly worth that.
Ted Grose, a past president of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers, said lenders now often conduct what he called “bench reviews” of appraisals. “They have an experienced, independent third-party go over the appraisal to make sure the numbers are accurate,” he said.
Grose called many of the applicants he sees “very challenging, mostly because of high loan-to-value ratios.”
Many of these people took exotic loans to get into high-priced properties. They used hybrid ARMs that are resetting to higher rates, or interest only loans.
Particularly deadly are option ARMs, which act as negative amortization loans; the payments don’t even cover the interest and the balance grows over time. Combine that with falling home prices, and the loan balance may be more than the home’s market value.
Under those circumstances, said Grose, few borrowers can be helped.
There is one bit of good news for homeowners this week: The stimulus bill passed by Congress late Thursday will raise the size of the loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy from $417,000 to nearly $730,000 in some high-cost markets.
Lenders are much more willing to make loans that can be sold to these two entities in the secondary market, which will make it easier for some people to refinance. Additionally, these so-called ‘conforming’ loans have interest rates a percentage point or more lower than ‘jumbo’ loans.
“That’s going to be huge,” said Grose, especially for his clientele in high cost Los Angeles.
But even for those who’ll benefit from the new legislation, refinancing will never be as easy as it used to be
NJ Patient,
I’m glad you revised your question to ask if we would advise rather than let. Contrary to what my broker thinks I have no control over what people do. I present all the facts, they do what they want.
Grim,
I don’t know what it costs and if the knowledge is worth the dollars. Experience is the best knowledge in this field. But my first thought when you asked GRI? was PS –
perpetual student (; “Not that’s there anything wrong with that”
KL
njp,
IMHO, it is generally a bad idea for most. Sellers underestimate the time it will take to sell, and worse, underestimate the financial and emotional impact of two mortgage payments.
However, dealing with contingencies means that as a buyer or seller, you aren’t in a strong negotiating position. “Sell before buying” is much easier said than done.
It really all boils down the position of the seller on the first house. If they are in a position to aggressively price the home, it’ll move. But that expectation needs to be set up front.
I should know this…but I don’t
When the bank is determining the LTV for a mortgage, is that based on purchased price or appraised value?
Lets say I get an aggressive bid accepted distressed seller. My $315k bid gets hit, but the appraisal comes in at $350k. I put down another $35k in cash.
Will the bank calculate my LTV based on the $350k appraised price giving me 20% equity (meaning no PMI or piggyback loan) or will the bank use the $315 purchase price, requiring me to pay PMI or take a piggyback loan?
The worst position is the seller who buys first and bases the affordability of their new purchase on the imaginary sale price of their existing home…
…that they also HELOC’ed in order to come up with the downpayment.
Rent,
I believe it is lower of appraisal or purchase price.
#326 Yup. We’re toast. Pile up the cash. Has anyone started a death pool on the banks?
Had some free time this afternoon so I stopped by the Bergen County Sheriff Sale. Of the 10 properties acutioned, 8 went back to the bank ($100). The other two were sold to private buyers. In all sales the bank representative indicates the maximum amount they are willing to bid. In many cases this is less than the judgement amount. In this scenario is the bank effectively agreeing to a short sale?
From Bloomberg:
`Jumbo’ Loan Limit Increase May Not Stem Housing Market Decline
Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) — A congressional plan to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac insure larger mortgages may not be enough to reverse the U.S. housing market slide and may only help buyers in the most expensive markets, said Nishu Sood, a homebuilding analyst with Deutsche Bank Securities.
Congress yesterday passed a $152 billion economic stimulus package to head off a recession. The bill will allow Fannie and Freddie to raise the limit on purchasing “jumbo” loans to $729,750 from $417,000. Mortgages will be eligible if they were granted between Jan. 31, 2007 and Dec. 31, 2008.
“The headlines are more exciting than the potential for real impact,” wrote Sood in a research note yesterday. “Not only do the proposals have limited reach and a short timeframe, but also qualification standards could limit the number of buyers that could benefit.”
…
More than 80 percent of the property owners who sought to refinance through Prime Rate Funding in the last three months were unable to do so because their home’s value had dropped, said David Pearl, the mortgage director of Prime Rate Funding Group Inc., a Timonium, Maryland-based brokerage that serves homeowners in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Delaware.
“As far as refinances go, the issue is even with raising those loan limits, people are tapped out on their equity, so it may not make a difference from the point of getting out of their existing situations,” said Kevin Henneman, branch manager of Prime Rate Funding.
…
Most people buying homes that require jumbo mortgages have good credit and can get those loans from commercial lenders, said Billy Keyserling, a broker with Coldwell Banker Platinum in Beaufort, South Carolina.
“Seventy percent of our market is people with a budget of $300,000 and below,” he said. “For every 30 of those houses we list, we have 70 buyers. Once we go over about $275,000 we are just knocking people out of the opportunity to buy a home.
“This is something that’s going to help wealthy people and banks but it’s not going to help working people.”
More a the link above, Rich
Clayton, did you look up the 2nd mtg?
Bank, in theory, could also go after the borrower under the Note.
Pat –
I didn’t. Really just an observer today. They did announce that on one of the properties.
OK, folks, you know how I’ve gotten pissy about the “POS Cape” snobbery here. But I have found you all the POS cape to end all POS capes:
http://tinyurl.com/2sbt4y
Photos at:
http://tinyurl.com/378dsg
This is essentially the same as my POS, except that my house has a finished upstairs with the dormer (and a 2nd bath) and this lot is bigger.
And as much updating as my house still needs, it’s better than this. This is on a main drag, too.
Maybe $489K might have been a reasonable listing price at peak…but a similar house to this in this neighborhood sold at $416K last November.
My favorite part of this listing, though, is the spectacular photography. I know that photos of a corner of a bare room with a stationary bike are going to pique MY interest…so is the one of the cracked patio and peeling basement doors. What are realtors thinking when they put up photos like this?
375. OutofStater
Add this possibility to the mix;
http://www.usvetdsp.com/manchuan.htm
Closed!