This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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From Bloomberg:
Banks at Risk From $203 Billion Writedowns, Says UBS
The world’s banks “remain at risk” of up to $203 billion in additional writedowns, largely because the bond insurance crisis could worsen, UBS AG said.
“Banks have made progress in credit-market related writedowns,” London-based UBS analyst Philip Finch said in a note to investors today. “But more are expected,” he added.
Writedowns for collateralized debt obligations and subprime related losses already total $150 billion, Finch estimated. That could rise by a further $120 billion for CDOs, $50 billion for structured investment vehicles, $18 billion for commercial mortgage-backed securities and $15 billion for leveraged buyouts, UBS said. “Risks are rising and spreading and liquidity conditions are still far from normal,” the note said.
From the WSJ:
Where Will the Crunch Hit Next?
By LIAM PLEVEN and JAMES R. HAGERTY
February 15, 2008; Page C1
Mounting losses and the threat of credit-rating downgrades are hitting another obscure corner of the insurance industry — mortgage insurance — and adding to strains on the housing market.
Rising claims on policies mortgage insurers sold during the housing market boom are hitting hard. MGIC Investment Corp., a Milwaukee-based firm that is the largest mortgage insurer in the country by market share, said this week that it posted a $1.47 billion loss in the fourth quarter. A much-smaller rival, Triad Guaranty Inc., based in Winston-Salem, N.C., this week reported a $75 million quarterly loss.
…
The problems are forcing mortgage insurers to adopt stricter underwriting standards. MGIC, for instance, won’t insure borrowers who won’t put down at least 5% in four states — Arizona, Florida, California and Nevada — and major metropolitan areas in many others. The change is already in effect in Florida and California and will take effect in the other places in March.
The result of such moves is that some people who have trouble scraping together a down payment — typical mortgage-insurance customers — could find it harder to purchase a house. The tightening is “another thorn in the consumers’ side,” says Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a housing research firm.
In a conference call with investors this week, Curt Culver, MGIC’s chief executive, acknowledged that the firm could get less business as a result of underwriting changes and higher prices for some policies. But he called that business “better lost than insured.”
From the WSJ:
Overdue Auto Loans
Climb to 10-Year High
February 15, 2008; Page C2
NEW YORK — Auto loans that are at least two months delinquent hit a 10-year high in January, said Fitch Ratings, signaling the continued spread of consumer weakness to debts beyond homes and credit cards.
The firm, a unit of Fimalac SA of Paris, said 0.77% of U.S. prime and subprime auto asset-backed securities were more than 60 days behind on payments, with the rate jumping 12% from December and 44% from a year ago.
Subprime delinquencies topped the 4% level for the first time since late 1997, reaching 4.03% last month, up 10% from December and 43% from a year earlier.
…
Fitch said two weeks ago that it expected 2008 gross charge-off — loans that card companies aren’t able to collect — to grow by at least 50%. Following the lead of mortgages and credit cards, auto-loan delinquencies have been on the upswing, in part because of the looser lending standards also plaguing other parts of the consumer-finance industry.
From the Boston Globe:
Subprime lawsuits on pace to top S&L cases
Lawsuits stemming from the US subprime mortgage debacle already are on pace to surpass the number of cases that grew out of the savings and loan meltdown of the late 1980s and early 1990s, a study has found.
more stories like thisBorrowers, investors, and other plaintiffs filed 278 civil lawsuits in federal courts related to subprime lending in 2007, and the trend is expected to continue this year, according to the report released yesterday.
Last year’s subprime tally was equal to about half of the 559 legal actions brought over a multiple-year period following the savings and loan crisis, according to the report by Navigant Consulting Inc. The subprime fallout has frequently been compared with that of the S&L crisis, which cost the government more than $100 billion.
“The S&L crisis has been a high-water mark in terms of the litigation fallout of a major financial crisis,” said Jeff Nielsen, managing director of Navigant, which provides business, regulatory, and financial advisory services. “The subprime-related cases appear on their way to eclipsing that benchmark.”
The 559 legal actions that were related to the S&L crisis encompass lawsuits handled by the Resolution Trust Corp, an agency created in 1989.
Repo business booming. Young professionals no longer able to keep up with their 3 series lease payment.
From Bloomberg:
Natixis Drops After Subprime Writedowns Cut Profit
Natixis SA, the French investment bank formed in a 2006 merger, had a record decline in Paris trading after reporting that writedowns linked to U.S. subprime mortgages cut profit by more than 50 percent.
…
“We were expecting more subprime writedowns, but it was the additional exposure to the monoliners that caught the market by surprise,” said Alain Chirlias, an analyst at Cheuvreux who cut his price target on the stock to 10 euros from 14 euros.
Are you going to put “Real Estate Expert” on your business card?
Better yet, you should change your log-in name to that!
No, no! Sign ALL your posts “Real Estate Expert”!!!
Yea, that’s the ticket.
;-)
Contributing to yesterday’s conversation RE: Student Loans (2 in college 1995-2001)
Pell Grants – Require very low income to qualify – Both daughters qualified when I was earning $38,000. a year in Oregon – 2 in college at once. But once I moved back to CA -$51,000. income – could not qualify.
I got a second job for 4 years.
Each year – 1995 to 2001 for two daughter – I personally ended up with $46,200. in Wm. D Ford-parent direct loans -paid in full 2007. (It took 12 years.) I also commited to $300.00 a month toward room/board while they were in college and they each qualified for work study jobs (on campus) and had 2nd jobs off campus plus summers.
Eldest transferred to a private college from UofO Eugene, OR – Concordia Univ. in Portland for last 2 years. They each ended up with approx. $25,000 in student loans.
(Staffords I believe)
Eldest – Corcordia – private colleges have much more in the way of scholarship funds.
So even though her tuition was twice as much as the youngest – they ended up with about the same debt – that with the eldest attaining a masters as well.
Youngest – one semester abroad – Spain -6 months added another several thousand.(No work study or second job)
Tuition – UofO approx. $4,000. plus room/board when we started out – probably $10,000. today.
I had to begin paying each of my loans two months after the year ended and then add a new loan for that year so I was always paying on a student loan or two. The students can defer their loans until 6 mo. after graduation and can qualify for deferral for a 2 year period if they are unable to pay.
So to recap – Pell Grants – You need very low income to qualify.
Scholarships – Much easier to come by at a private college. Eldest had grants/scholarships coming at her right and left – she still had $25,000 in student loans.
Your income matters….
ABC/Nightline is coming by this afternoon. I wonder how much trouble I’m going to stir up.
(9) Kudos Grim – You should get Chicago to do a follow-up on his “balloon-sitting”
strategy…I’m sure their were plenty of skeptics at the time..
Oh, man. Just be polite and don’t use any fowl language like The Bird, Duck, C0ck or anything Gary would say.
;)
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1554158820080215
“Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has barred investors in one of its hedge funds…”
JB, you’re going to have to add redemption to your search list.
From Bloomberg:
Bank Risk Soars on Concern Bond Insurer Breakup May Fuel Losses
The cost of protecting banks from default soared on concern a proposal to break up bond insurers MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. may trigger further credit market losses.
Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Financial index of 125 banks and financial institutions jumped 6 basis points to 100 at 11:45 a.m. in London, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Markit iTraxx Japan index rose 4 basis points to 86, Morgan Stanley prices show.
…
“A forced breakup along the good business, bad business lines wouldn’t be good for banks,” said Nigel Myer, a research analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort in London. “Removing the solid cash flows from the municipal bonds would leave the rump rather naked and potentially much less able to meet its obligations.”
There was an article yesterday about the risk to mortgage processors as well, but I can’t find it.
Was this Paulson speech posted? Sorry, bit busy.
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp828.htm
Woohoo Grim! Stick it to them!
“ABC/Nightline is coming by this afternoon.”
JB,
Let them know this is a quick synopsis of what we have discussed here over the past 2 years;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE-LDfroa1w
Maybe the “you put your finger on me” video as well.
grim,
Let us know when the segment airs.
Is this about re-listings?
Oh, my lord. Anybody priced a catalytic converter lately? By the way, I know nothing about cars.
“Citigroup is blocking investors from withdrawing their money from a hedge fund specializing in government debt after a near run on its assets, according to a published report.”
“The Wall Street Journal reports that Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) made the move to bar withdrawals from its CSO Partners fund after investors attempted to pull out more than 30% of the fund’s roughly $500 million in assets.”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/15/news/companies/citi_hedgefund/?postversion=2008021507
Anybody priced a catalytic converter lately? By the way, I know nothing about cars.
The catalyst in a catalytic converter contains platinum, which recently printed $2,000/ounce.
Of course there is always the old hollow out the catalytic converter with a broomstick trick…
Man, they better put your title, Real Estate Expert under your image!
———-
BC,
It’s not under warranty?
———–
You should get Chicago to do a follow-up on his “balloon-sitting”
Leave his cranium out of it.
Renting [21],
The platinum market has gone ballastic, up another $50 this morning.
“It’s not under warranty?”
Rich,
??
Grim, I suggest you get yourself a showbiz agent like Ari Emmanuel. He can get you on Larry King Live and the rest of the talking head shows. Kudlow and Company would be a good start too.
For those who don’t know who Ari Emmanuel is,the Ari Gold character on HBO’s Entourage is based on him.
Re; Higher Education from yesterday
One of the issues with the cost of state college is that presidents keep spending money that they don’t get from the state so they raise fees. That’s the trick – they can’t increase tuition but they can increase fees. That’s how Rutgers will pay for the new stadium and how MSU will pay for the new pool/rec facility.
I can’t even imagine that RU will spend so much for a football stadium when the one they have now isn’t that old especially for a team with a previously dismal record. We had season tickets in the mid 90s (husband went there) and they were so pathetic we didn’t renew. What gets me is that they eliminated a number of sports last year which would have cost ~ $1,000,000 to keep and now they’re going to spend >$72,000,000 to build a new stadium.
I went to UCLA for grad and they were terrible with the fees. When I was there (don’t know if it’s still this way), there was no “tuition” – it was all fees. Granted, for in-state, the fees were $1,100 a quarter which was cheap even in the early 90s. My entire graduate degree cost me less than $4,000 because I got some grants.
Bob,
The catalytic converter.
From my experience with an issue with mine it was covered under a longer warranty.
quick, order up a https://www.njrereport.com golf shirt and wear it during your interview.
It’s all about marketing!
re ABC
Just don’t stray too far from the accepted narrative or you’ll be put on the express to kooksville.
Some Cities Are Spared the Slide in Housing
from the NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/15/business/15homes.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Out by me they are stealing catalytic converters left and right from SIVs that are easy to crawl under. The plat is expensive and junk yards buy them from any crack head through the door.
My Mom did not pay for college as she had no no money anyhow, she also did not allow her children to take loans and she also charged us rent while we were in college and did not pay for any of our expenses. All four of her kids got graduate degrees. It is the parents themselves that caused the huge increase in college costs. Just say no.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4udL8Lxyo4w&refer=home
Today is CRAZY FRIDAY in NYC, 15K for Kindergarten
grim Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 7:35 am
ABC/Nightline is coming by this afternoon. I wonder how much trouble I’m going to stir up.
grim: can’t you do anything original?
Rich[27],
I was just making reference to the price of platinum.
From MarketWatch:
SUBPRIME TODAY:
Latest credit-market trap could hit closed-end funds
Citigroup fund bars exit by investors after bad bet
Spitzer warns bond insurers
Banks at risk from $203 billion writedowns, says UBS
Greenspan says U.S. economy is on edge of a recession
Banks advised to walk away from big deals
scribe Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 8:06 am
grim, Let us know when the segment airs.
Is this about re-listings?
scribe: I think this type of segment is always tentative….you are more likely to see it as a web-video off the ABC News Site…
What? Now flat screens? Not even a Super Bowl bonanza?
“Leading U.S. electronics retailer Best Buy Co. cut its full-year earnings forecast Friday, citing weaker-than-expected revenue growth in January.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-futures-point-sharp/story.aspx?guid=%7BF72035EB%2D9B7A%2D467A%2D83C3%2DE83FA7EC1DEB%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
Bob (34),
Doh!
I’m a little slow on the “uptake” this morning. Couple of Valentine c0cktails last night…
Anybody priced a catalytic converter lately? By the way, I know nothing about cars.
Cost me $425 just for the converter before labor on my truck. Ouch!
BC Bob Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Oh, my lord. Anybody priced a catalytic converter lately? By the way, I know nothing about cars.
Bob,
We had some rentals over christmas for the business. Chevy/GMC vans. One monday I heard one start. Sounded like a race car. Looked under with a flashlight and low and behold the converter was sawzalled out.
All 15 rentals were taken out in one shot. Replacement cost on each pipe was close to 2k. Thank god Enterprise swapped em out. The Enterprise driver said this is VERY common. Scrap value is north of 200.00 each !!!
Chris
I have a question – in one of the listings I found a phrase:
PROUDLY REDUCED BY $24,300!
Is it just me or it is funny???
“Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) — The world’s banks “remain at risk” of up to $203 billion in additional writedowns, largely because the bond insurance crisis could worsen, UBS AG said.”
That can’t be true! bi said there would be no more writedowns!
41 Al
That’s definitely funny
Grim:
Good luck on your interview with ABC, please school them on the housing market but be gentle (yeah right) school’em!!!
10 Billion in municipal auction rate securites failed the first 3 days of the this week.
The law suits are next, and the layoffs of course.
I would not be surprised to see Goldman or Lehamn bag the muni business entirely.
Fellas, I’m starting my own fund that invests primarily in pawn shops, repo outfits, secondhand clothing stores, manufacturers of cheap booze, Ramen noodles and Friskies. Who wants in?
38 Rich
“Couple of Valentine c0cktails last night…”
Is that the euphemism you kids are using these days?
32 john
“Today is CRAZY FRIDAY in NYC, 15K for Kindergarten”
Bloomberg radio was saying $28K!
Quality quote from Pedro on drug testing….
“We have to pee every day,” Martinez said. “I’d have no problem if we were tested every day. Anything to make sure this game we have is clean.”
Patient,
Nah, I don’t use euphemisms, the wife takes this little pill…
From MarketWatch:
Empire State survey shows N.Y. activity slump
Data out from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday showed that regional manufacturing activity for February fell to the weakest levels seen in close to three years.
The Empire State index tracking general business conditions tumbled nearly 21 points to a negative 11.7 reading, falling below the zero for the first time since May 2005.
New orders and shipments indexes also dropped into negative territory, the New York Fed said.
The prices paid index rose for a second consecutive month, to its highest level in considerably more than a year, while the prices received index remained elevated but close to January’s level.
About that link in #32…
You know the longer I stay in the East Cost the mroe I am convincd that people here are crazy….
Sorry to offend anybody but thats just unbelivable…
It is like watching new cast of “Special people” develop.
From MarketWatch:
Countrywide loan funding down 6% in January
Struggling lender Countrywide Financial Corp. said Friday it had mortgage loan funding of $22 billion in January, down 6% from a month prior and 41% a year earlier. The lender’s operational results for January showed daily loan applications rose $1.1 billion to $2.6 billion for the month, but were still down 6.4% from January 2007. Delinquencies and foreclosures also continued to rise, with delinquencies up to 7.47% from 7.27% and foreclosures growing to 1.48% from 1.44% a month earlier.
NJP Its 15,000 just for help to get in.
28,000 is the cost of schooling.
grim, salty at 28 made me wonder whether you’ve ever considered selling some sort of njrereport.com T-shirt/coffee mug/bumper sticker/whatever on one of the many sites that let you design your own and set up shop. You wouldn’t be beholden to anyone.
Below are some T-shirt ideas – picture wearing these to Open Houses (njrereport.com in small print at the bottom of each):
– The sales figure graph showing sales falling off the table in 1/08
– “Why does it smell like cabbage in here?”
– “I was going to make an offer, but I’m insulted by your asking price”
– “Proud member of the LOD”
– “It costs WHAT? How will I be able to afford my Friskies?”
Al
East Coasters aren’t crazy, rich Manhattanites are. Are you from somewhere else BTW?
Love the “Proudly Reduced.” I guess it’s better than
“Reduced in Shame as I Wallow in the fact that I’m not going to get what my stupid neighbor got 2 years ago.”
8 Cindy
Wow. Kudos to you for paying all of that for your daughters education. Impressive that you paid off 46K in debt all on your own.
grim
Let us know when and where this segment airs? And will there be talk of strollers?
54 mike
Seriously? (Times have changed since I was in preschool on the UES). So it’s $43K in total first-year preschool costs?
njp,
http://www.cafepress.com/nnjbubble.68233219
http://www.cafepress.com/nnjbubble.68290024
Next Bubble Starting to Brew !!!
In Panama, a refuge for U.S. retirees hoping to stretch their dollars
ALTO DE MARIA, Panama (MarketWatch) — In a lush valley hidden in the coffee-producing hills of Panama, the sounds of tropical birds singing and burbling brooks compete with the rumble of cement trucks groaning their way uphill.
“If you’re less than Medicare age and disqualify for insurance you could be in big trouble,” said Honey, who is 61 and moved to Panama from Texas in 2005.
As retired small-business owners with potentially serious medical issues, health insurance in the States became prohibitively expensive for the couple, said Honey.
Larry, 65, who had a photographic souvenir business in Montana and Wyoming, had a hip replaced for $14,000 and a stent installed for $11,000 in Panama City. Honey says her husband’s medical care was “up-to-the minute,” but cautions that some medicines can be hard to find and that choices are limited.
49 chi
I’m a Yankee fan (sorry), so I should have every reason to detest Pedro, but he’s on of my favorite ballplayers ever. He’s a great pitcher mostly because he’s twice as smart as any of the hitters he faces, he loves playing the game (who’s as happy as he is to be out there playing ball, other than maybe Jeter; his teammates always love him; he knows the history of the game, and he’s great with the fans). That’s just one more reason for me to like Pedro.
The Mets/Tigers WS this year will be a barn-burner.
(31) John
“All four of her kids got graduate degrees.”
Awesome. She must be one proud Mom and that makes you one of four hard-working children.
Ann- Thanks – I did the best I could. We lived in an Oregon town of 5,000 with no college nearby. The guilt I felt after divorcing with a 14 and 16 year-old had something to do with it. I didn’t want it to be my fault if they didn’t get a college education. I was the first in my family to do so.
My Hero is moving to Asia
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/1708/Great-Investor-Leaves-America?tickers
#56 Ann
” rich Manhattanites ”
Gold Coast pre schools are just as bad. Newport/Hoboken is around 12K for kindergarden, if you can get a spot.
One of the main reasons we moved.
58
I had forgotten about those
NJP They must play with platinum blocks!
Its insane.
Open John’s link thats the #S.
Of course you can try to get in without the 15k but we must give are little ones every advantage.
Grim,
If you need to Phone-A-Friend, I can give you my number ;)
Still looking –
“POTATOES. Mashed or bake?”
I laughed my a$$ off. Classic.
65 mike
Just read it.
Oh. My. G*d.
$15K for the consultant who might not even get you in? Clearly the problem is that the $28K tuition is way too low.
PGC,
I believe I came across your purchase on the Hot Sheet.
NICE SCORE!
From MarketWatch:
FGIC wants to be split into two companies
Bond insurer FGIC Corp. has notified New York regulators that it wants to be split into two companies, the state’s insurance commissioner said Friday.
The move, reported by The Wall Street Journal, comes in the wake of commissioner Eric Dinallo, among others, floating such an idea for capital-hungry bond insurers as a means of shoring up their all-important AAA ratings. Dinallo also discussed FGIC’s request during an interview on CNBC.
[55] I’ll take one that says I was going to make an offer but I was insulted by your asking price!
NICE SCORE!
Almost $200,000 under 2005 purchase price and on-par with the 2002 asking price.
The Grave Dancer would be proud.
Actually the 28K tuition is nothing, the school mentioned in Brooklyn is pre-k to 12 grade, that is around 30K for 14 years of school 30Kx14 is 420K to get the kid through high school. Then you have to pay for ivy league college, that is just one kid.
njpatient Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 9:28 am
54 mike
Seriously? (Times have changed since I was in preschool on the UES). So it’s $43K in total first-year preschool costs?
Grim,
You may want to give the sellers some help tonight:
http://www.midwestinternetsales.com/stjoseph/
420K to get the kid through high school. Then you have to pay for ivy league college, that is just one kid.
So what if you kid will come to you and say: Hi daddy – can I just have my million in some Mutual funs and go to regular school and have fun -by the time I am out of high school it will be 10 mill, why do I need to go to colledge and work???
$15K for the consultant who might not even get you in? Clearly the problem is that the $28K tuition is way too low.
No, we’re clearly in the wrong business.
Anyone up for starting a “life coaching” business? It might be fun to berate self-conscious New Yorkers at $500/hr. Wait, do the leather-clad already have that market cornered?
If Campbell and Kraft tied for first in food stocks..
Is that because everyone is eating soup or macaroni and cheese?
“grim Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 7:35 am
ABC/Nightline is coming by this afternoon. I wonder how much trouble I’m going to stir up.”
Hopefully you come off looking better than your San Francisco counterpart.
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=3732114
#69 Rich
Thanks. NJMLS 2428907 is the old listing that has some photos that I never got a chance to pull off.
The US Treasuries and Agencies markets, as well as the Corporate and Municipal Bond markets, will be closed after 2:00 pm ET on Friday, February 15th
Nice to be a bond trader!
The St. Joseph with Baby Jesus statue is PRIME!
Why bury just one saint when you can bury both a saint and a god. Does that come in a 3-pack?
How do I bury it outside a condo building, when other tenants are trying to sell too? Is there an idol I can bury to smite my enemies?
Surely, I wouldn’t want my St. Joseph statue to help them out.
Can I hide it under the welcome mat? Or nail it to a lintle? Does it work if I bury it in a potted plant?
Oh, oh…
Looks like people are picking up flat screens TV’s and other gadgets like they used to…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080215/ap_on_bi_ge/best_buy_outlook;_ylt=AixdVlaV9P7rwE2fa2Q7dqiyBhIF
Where’s Booyah Bob when we need him…probably busy picking up toys from greedy grubbers!
#76 grim
“Anyone up for starting a “life coaching” business?”
My friend started one in CA. All her clinets are via phone so she can live were she wants. She moved to Utah for the skiing.
No smiting Grim. Bad Ju Ju! Potted plant is the closest you got, then that’s what you use.
420K for education !!!
I did my 4 year Engg degree from India and probably spent less than $1,000 (ALL expenses included) 10 years ago.It might cost around 8,000 -10,000 these days. I make close to 200K in US now.
People need to wake up and fix this education issue in US or else loose in competition. I’m now concerned how I’m gonna afford education for my 2 sons. I will send them abroad.
Al Says:
“So what if you kid will come to you and say: Hi daddy – can I just have my million in some Mutual funs and go to regular school and have fun -by the time I am out of high school it will be 10 mill, why do I need to go to colledge and work???”
There’s something in that…
PGC Says:
“My friend started one in CA. All her clinets are via phone so she can live were she wants. She moved to Utah for the skiing.”
SWEET.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops to 69.6 This Month
Confidence among U.S. consumers fell more than expected this month, reaching a 16-year low, as the labor market cooled.
The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 69.6 from 78.4 in January, the lowest since February 1992.
The first drop in employment in more than four years and higher gasoline prices are causing Americans to take a dimmer view of the economy and their financial situation. That may reduce consumer spending, which has already has slowed in recent months.
“There’s a lot of negative headlines and market volatility and those will continue to weigh on consumer sentiment,” Julia Coronado, a senior economist at Barclays Capital in New York, said before the report. “We do expect some softness” in consumer spending, she said.
Economists forecast the measure would fall to 76, according to the median of 66 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 70 to 80.6.
420K for education !!!
I did my 4 year Engg degree from India and probably spent less than $1,000 (ALL expenses included) 10 years ago.It might cost around 8,000 -10,000 these days. I make close to 200K in US now.
People need to wake up and fix this education issue in US or else loose in competition. I’m now concerned how I’m gonna afford education for my 2 sons. I will send them abroad.
loosing always sux.
CN Article today,
Rich, poor districts still show testing gap
The Department of Education’s state report cards released Thursday showed Central Jersey schools continuing trends similar to recent years. High-poverty districts with the largest immigrant populations — including New Brunswick, Perth Amboy and Plainfield — produced some of the lowest scores on state tests.
Just 35 percent of Plainfield’s seniors were headed to a four-year college, according to the student-reported data. In Perth Amboy, 29 percent of seniors planned to continue to a four-year college. In New Brunswick, that figure was 24 percent.
In contrast, 87 percent of seniors planned to go to a four-year college after graduating in New Providence, which is less than 2 percent low-income. And on the state tests, New Providence generated pass rates nearing 100 percent on every test.
Whatever happened to Bush “No Child Left Behind”? Its been 7 years since passage of the law, no effect seems to be coming to NJ.
Getting back to Real Estate for a minute–What advice do the assembled sages have for a NJ newbie?
In light of the market and the tax/debt overhang that New Jersey has, am I an idiot for considering buying in this market?
I need to be in commuting distance to Summit and highways (or trains) to Newark. But the prospect of 18K a year in property taxes on a 4 bed 2 bath sounds like fiscal suicide to me.
Thoughts? Or is this a nightline/baseball thread only?
Hopefully you come off looking better than your San Francisco counterpart.
I thoroughly expect to make a complete fool of myself, and if by chance I don’t, that the piece is edited in such a way to cast me in an unflattering light.
Really, the best outcome here is that I end up on the digital equivalent of the cutting room floor.
# 63 “Gold Coast pre schools are just as bad. Newport/Hoboken is around 12K for kindergarden, if you can get a spot.”
Yea, but the low housing prices and taxes make up for that expense.
In light of the market and the tax/debt overhang that New Jersey has, am I an idiot for considering buying in this market?
You’ve got the common sense to ask the question, surely that is worth something.
I hear plenty of agents pushing prospects into buying based on the fact that they wouldn’t have to worry about further rent increases. Of course, they’ll never speak of the rapidly rising property taxes in this state.
#73 “420K to get the kid through high school. Then you have to pay for ivy league college, that is just one kid. ”
Only if you love your kids, John. If not, then any $120 k private school education will do. If one is not willing to spend the $120 for k-12, what kind of parents can they be anyway. (Tongue planted firmly in cheek).
grim Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 10:34 am
the digital equivalent of the cutting room floor
grim: my rough description of the value of this blog…..
We were talking about a West Orange listing (6 Pring Court) the other day, which saw property taxes *double* in 10 years.
The property taxes were rough at $14k in 1999, but $28k in 2008?
$2,400 in property taxes, every month!
And people say that renting is throwing money away.
Pat Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 7:51 am
Oh, man. Just be polite and don’t use any fowl language like The Bird, Duck, C0ck or anything Gary would say. ;)
Pat: sequel to yesterday…..Warning…as opposed to the other clip, this one is less humorous and is more just a juxtaposition of profanity and vulgarity. Following the pun, the Oriole is truly fowl….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YKxf3OkpJc
I can’t see how this doesn’t result in an exodus of boomers and retirees.
The thought of cashing out and moving to a lower-cost location has got to be pretty compelling when faced with a $28,190 property tax bill.
I was asking myself the same question when I was in the hardware store, Hoboken’s all condos where are you going to bury this thing? If they were smart they’d have a stack of flower pots and potting soil sitting next to the statues.
# 92 “I thoroughly expect to make a complete fool of myself, and if by chance I don’t, that the piece is edited in such a way to cast me in an unflattering light.”
One suggestion, for what it is worth, from someone who has made many U.S. and international T.V. and radio broadcasts: Answer questions in complete sentences — and when you can, incorporate the question into the answer.
Doing so makes it easier to use your statements on air. It is also harder to slice and dice.
Oh, also, ask for a tape of what they shoot of you, as well as the show itself. I have never had this refused. Oh yea, a plain light blue shirt doesnt hurt (it shows up on screen as white).
the school issue has got to hold back NYC real estate at some point. even if you have the money, you are not guaranteed to be able to get your kids into a good school.
Software Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 10:24 am
420K for education !!!
I did my 4 year Engg degree from India and probably spent less than $1,000 (ALL expenses included) 10 years ago.It might cost around 8,000 -10,000 these days. I make close to 200K in US now.
People need to wake up and fix this education issue in US or else loose in competition. I’m now concerned how I’m gonna afford education for my 2 sons. I will send them abroad.
People need to fix issue?? – YOU LIVE IN USA NOW!!! You need to fix issues. If you make close to 200K USA/year you can afford education.
The real problem – disparity betwee US dollar value and other coutries values. Once it will cost you 50K/year to send your kids to school in India you will send them to US school.
Please remmeber: I am an immigrant myself with no student loads:
I think all new immigrants should automatically get 50K debt by accepting green card/US citizenship.
Americans are all burdened wit Student loans/all kind of costs and foreighners like myself are free of thouse costs.
Not only you took 200K job away from American who is in debt due to student loans, but you are thinking of sending your kids away anyways.
This is real problem in USA nowdays:
Immigrants are coming here not in search of better/fair life but in search of money only.
If you keep sending money to India – you will loose your 200K job here really fast, because there will be no jobs. And once you go back to India – it will be rude awakwning to you.
actually, starting a for profit school in manhattan would probably be a winner. you could take in all of the rich kids who get dinged by the other private schools.
BC (20)-
Nice to see the outperformance in Pandit’s old bailiwick. Stopping the run after a 30% liquidation? Hey, those guys are really on the ball.
Rent (21)-
Great. Now BC will be busting open his old catalytic converter to harvest the platinum.
# 103 My daughter says that she will take and invest a $50,000 check from anyone who wants want to unburden himself or herself of the guilt.
Come to think of it, I will too. It can offset the cost of vacations each year.
Skep-tic #104-
That would be some collection of kids. You have to be pretty bad to get kicked out of some of these schools.
opening an expensive for profit private school would give you a lot of cross marketing options as well. you could have a stable of nannies. each child could get his/her own personal assistant and financial planner. You could have a matchmaking service for all of the divorced parents. Nutritionists and family meal service. Stylists and psychiatrists. Pharmacy. Day spa and detox center. So much potential
# 106
Now I know what to get Mrs. Shore for Valentines Day next year, either a catalytic converter or some Pt tipped spark plugs.
ChiFi (49)-
Except…the sport to which he was referring is c0ckfighting:
“Anything to make sure this game we have is clean.”
Skeptic #109-
Here are some potential names for your venture:
Life Success Academy
Life Strategies Institute
Athenia Life Center
Strategic Success Institute
There you go. I’ll send you my consulting fee bill. Just send your address to Grim.
JM
#94 grim Yes. And in last Sunday’s Bergen Record the head of the NJEA had her little weekly comment column wherby she stated the following.
Bascally it has been proven that cutting taxes is a bad thing, its a failure, and we should continue to raise taxes if we are to maintian our educationl competitvenss in the world.
I just got an e-mail from a RE agent about a house in coastal Monmouth. The background:
It is a few blocks from the beach. It was a 3 bedroom 1 bath which was converted to 5 bedroom
2 bath home. The kitchen was redone. It was purchased by flippers in the spring and redone this summer. It is sitting empty
I thought the price was a bit high and late summer or early autumn told the agent: I would consider looking at it only if the sellers realized they bought and renovated at the wrong time and they are going to take a severe haircut and they should be prepared to take a large capital loss and that the market is only going to get worse for sellers.”
He came back acknowledging that they were going to take a hit.
Business kept me busy and I did not have time to look at the home. It seems they are still trying to get out from under it. At this point I have my head telling me to wait (there will always be something just as nice, and in an equal or better location, next year) batteling with my nose, which smells blood.
Any thoughts? It would only be an occasional use place/guest house for friends.
Shore Guy Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 11:00 am
# 103 My daughter says that she will take and invest a $50,000 check from anyone who wants want to unburden himself or herself of the guilt.
Come to think of it, I will too. It can offset the cost of vacations each year.
Hey I am not feeling guilty, but I hate when my foreign friends complain about life in USA, bashing everything American and quite frankly disrespect this country.
I think we all have a option of going back home… Real estate in my home town… Well I can by a 100 acre Farm with really good soil and a river for water for about 20K USD.
Can you do it in USA?? NO. Because Dollar is still wayy overvalued with respect to developing countries currency.
# 112 Of course there is always the”
“Send your children here or watch them end up living in the gutter drinking swill academy”
Interesting enought there was a private parochial school on the upper east side that closed down two year as no one wants to send their kids to a 3K a year school, the school has re-opened as a private school at 21K a year and now gets business.
There is no tuition problem in the tri-state area, the merchant marine academy, pratt and peter cooper are all 100% free!!! I don’t see many kids applying, CUNY and SUNY schools are dirt cheap, so dirt cheap that Pell, BEOG and Tap cover whole thing so poor students go free. That plus second tier schools are pretty good with giving away money. Heck Harvard and Yale are almost free for the under 100K crowd, The problem is kids want to go to top name very expensive schools and parents in the 100-150K range who are too rich for financial aid and too poor to afford it mortgage themselves to the max to pay for it. That is a crisis of stupidity.
skep-tic Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 10:56 am
actually, starting a for profit school in manhattan would probably be a winner. you could take in all of the rich kids who get dinged by the other private schools.
# 115
Al,
Hey, a little guilt is a good thing. Clearly, you are neither Catholic nor Jewish. I won’t be getting my $50k check then?
actually, starting a for profit school in manhattan would probably be a winner. you could take in all of the rich kids who get dinged by the other private schools.
I know someone in whos looking to lend some venture capital to a qualified and experienced group of investors. If we can come up with half the cost, a location and a good business model I think I can pullit off. The guy lives in my building.
Only catch is that the school need to be named after him. Last name only.
Shore Guy Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 11:22 am
# 115
Al,
Hey, a little guilt is a good thing. Clearly, you are neither Catholic nor Jewish. I won’t be getting my $50k check then?
Right after I will pay off my unemployed Americanborn wife’s Private university Student loans …
BTW she disn’t get ANY unemployment benefits or ever counted as unemployed in any statistics BECAUSE she quite her job and moved to be with her husband.
She has been activelly looking for professional job for a year….
P.S. She is Catholic.. She was my first intoducion to the concept of Catholic Guilt.
“The problem is kids want to go to top name very expensive schools and parents in the 100-150K range who are too rich for financial aid and too poor to afford it mortgage themselves to the max to pay for it. That is a crisis of stupidity.”
Yes, but this is your bread and butter demographic of where college students come from. If the majority of private schools price themselves out of this group, they are the stupid ones.
The St. Joseph’s statue can work if you believe. Ok, not the statue itself, but the prayers. The prayers have to be made with respect, not as a joke. And there is a history behind the tradition, it’s not a scam that some huckster thought of to sell statues, although certainly the hucksters are in on the action now.
Here’s the real estate part of the prayer:
St. Joseph, patron of family and homes, pray that someone will find out home as loving a place as we do, and that we can move onto our new hoe, to honor you and your foster-son Jesus Christ.
What’s wrong with that prayer? Why is it the subject of such ridicule?
Is it any sillier than the house blessings that the Sikhs and Hindus perform? Don’t all cultures have rituals for all sorts of major life events?
[55] NJP
[blows coffee all over keyboard…]
Count me in for the friskies fund.
Ooops, that should be HOME, not hoe. Because that wouldn’t be a respectful prayer.
grim, please take control of this site. What happened to the real estate commentary ? We have catalytic converters, kindergarten education, life coaches. Whats going on in Real Estate.
You have some momentum on this site – dont jump the shark……..
Shore guy if your wife is a good catholic in a few years she will have 4 or 5 kids at home and won’t have time to work anyhow.
My friend married an unemployed girl last year, she loves it. Best thing an unemployed girl can do. If a girl can find a tiger for her bed, a mink for her back, a jaguar for her driveway and a jackass to pay for it all she has it made.
Grim has gone Hollywood!!!
“We have catalytic converters, kindergarten education, life coaches. Whats going on in Real Estate.”
Mr Potter,
You forgot Earl Weaver.
“Anyone up for starting a “life coaching” business? It might be fun to berate self-conscious New Yorkers at $500/hr.”
laughing so hard I can’t see…
Is it any sillier than the house blessings that the Sikhs and Hindus perform? Don’t all cultures have rituals for all sorts of major life events?
I know of a good ritual for selling a house:
Fresh paint, remove clutter/personal pictures, update appliances/roof/furnace/AC system.
And the most powerfull prayer – lower price!!!
Grim can do as he likes with his blog, if he wants to crack down on off-topic comments, he can easily by moderating them.
Personally, I don’t understand why people complain about going off topic. Why not use that space to start a real estate related topic themselves or to offer up some real estate wisdom?
130
True, true. God helps those who help themselves sometimes too.
I find many of the side commentaries fascinating, as people start taking a holistic look at affordability. Most things are inter-related. Looking at Net Income, after doing a projection on the myriad of taxes, educational costs, retirement costs, transportation costs, etc., can be a real eye opener. It’s good to see that more people are taking a realist approach to affordability. I know one gentleman who will only buy Hyundi’s, to get the 10 year warranty and good gas milage. Guess that also covers the catalytic Converter.
njp 129, me too. I was thinking the finger video would be a good welcome/introduction for new trainers. Start em out right in the right frame of mind.
I think most of the “off topic” stuff is tangentially related to RE. Schools, taxes, gov’t, general economic issues are all relevant. As far as the strictly RE discussion goes, everything is pretty much happening the way it was predicted on this board long ago, so there really isn’t that much left to debate about.
Ann,
There is nothing wrong with saying prayers if that makes you feel better. But it is laughable to think that this would help anyone sell their home. What sells your home is pricing it right and a whole lot of luck in finding the right buyer at the right time.
# 126 Not gonna happen here. We are out of the offspring-making business. Although, with the handouts congress is sending out to everyone else, I suppose those who are making less money and who have more kids could view them as “revenue units.”
Is there a patron saint of asset bubbles?
I’d like to add the likeness of one to the “Bubble Prayer” t-shirt.
“skep-tic Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 11:58 am
…everything is pretty much happening the way it was predicted on this board long ago”
Really? The crash in New Jersey home prices that people predicted still isn’t showing up in the data.
Instead, my prediction of stagnant prices is the one that is playing out.
Did anyone see what Greenspan said yesterday: http://www.cnbc.com/id/23175042
“Greenspan said the economy will continue to erode until there is a stabilization of U.S. housing prices. “We have a long way to go” before housing prices hit a bottom, Greenspan told energy executives at the CERA conference.”
Hummm, so that makes all the efforts to stanch the bleeding seem a bit wrongheaded. What are the odds any policy makers take note and act accordingly?
#139
pretorius– this is a fair point, but I would point to the massive drop in transactions, rise in inventory and large increase in foreclosures which suggest that greater price declines are imminent. do you think these factors suggest otherwise?
Bi (139),
I mean Pre.
You weren’t here in the beginning were you?
Some of what was predicted has happened and it’s still possible that some will still happen.
So EVERYONE (you too) is right. Happy?
7 New listings have come on in my town this week, and I have to say, (not to sound like my main man Gary), but the sellers and or the realtors who have listed these houses are still in denial, and believe they can get 2005/06 peak prices.
These new lsiting can join all the others that are currently rotting away on the market.
Over 50 now which is th most I have seen for this time of year in my small town.
I think its going to get much worse inventory wise as we get into March and beyond.
# 138 Dolly Parton?
mr Potter 125
you may want to look at the title again
New Jersey Real Estate Report
Real Estate, Economics, and Politics
Really? The crash in New Jersey home prices that people predicted still isn’t showing up in the data.
Right, because PGC didn’t really just close on a house for almost $200,000 under the 2005 purchase price.
With the concessions, I believe he estimated the discount at 26%.
(PGC, sorry for using you as an anecdote.)
On the off topic stuff, I agree that most stuff is tangentially related to real estate. And certainly there is still tons of real estate commentary and advice available if people need it. And grim, along with others who offer info, has offered MLS reports to anyone, what a great resource that is.
143 3b
I think part of the problem is that there aren’t that many lower comps yet, so when the listing agent comes over to list with the little report, all they have are the high comps still.
Yesterday Mrs PGC and I bought our own little piece of REO in Bergan Co.
Can I submit an entry in “RElOwball”
Purchased 07/05/95 – 265000
Purchased 08/02/05 – $630,000
SOLD – 02/12/08 – $471,000
We had the bank kick in $10K for repairs giving a price to us as 26% under the 2005 high.
I think JB could do a better job with the numbers but i think with all the commisions paid the house came out as a 33% loss. I didn’t have a chance to look up the previous mortgages, but I think between the previous owner and the banks there was over $200K of blood left on the closing table.
136 Mike NJ
I agree, we sold our townhouse quickly, coming on last to the market and leaving first, because it was in move-in condition and priced right. And the prayers to St. Joseph didn’t hurt. : )
This is a comment on Brad DeLong’s blog:
Still think it’s a liquidity problem?—From the Fed
February 08, 2008
Recent Declines in Nonborrowed Reserves
The H.3 statistical release indicates that nonborrowed reserves of depository institutions have declined substantially since mid-December to a level that is now negative. This development reflects the provision of a large volume of reserves through the Term Auction Facility (TAF) and has no adverse implications for the availability of reserves to the banking system.
By definition, nonborrowed reserves are equal to total reserves minus borrowed reserves. Borrowed reserves are equal to credit extended through the Federal Reserve’s regular discount window programs as well as credit extended through the TAF. To maintain a level of total reserves consistent with the Federal Open Market Committee’s target federal funds rate, increases in borrowed reserves must generally be met by a commensurate decrease in nonborrowed reserves, which is accomplished through a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities and other assets. The negative level of nonborrowed reserves is an arithmetic result of the fact that TAF borrowings are larger than total reserves.
(end quote)
From Federal Reserve Statistical Release H3
Non-borrowed reserve= -$18,009,000,000 as of February 13th.
Yes, a NEGATIVE non-borrowed reserve–kind of the definition of NSF in the checking world. A serious decline from February when non-borrowed reserves exceeded required reserves of about $40B. This means that there is about $60B in borrowed reserve at this time…
Definitely time for another TAF auction and rate cut–what else can they do? Without TAF auctions, where would they be? On the floor, dead?
Solvency crisis anyone?
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2008/02/bernanke-testif.html
$200k invested properly buys a lot of retirement in twenty years. A lot of retirement.
Or a fun week in Atlantic City.
#139 Instead, my prediction of stagnant prices is the one that is playing out.
Ah young pret it is way too early to be confiderntly stating that your so called scenario is the one that is playing out.
Rapid and dramatic increases in inventory, big declines in transactions, and we are still in Feb. More bad news across the board is on the way.
I would think that we would at least need to see what happens in this Spring/Summer market.
Like I have always said in relation to you. You need to have lived through a real recession, before you become so overly confident.
If nothing living through one should give you cause to pause.
Oh and as an aside there were significant lay offs in Goldman’s Fixed Income dept this week. Please do not attmept to explain it away for me; I worked there for many years,a nd still have soem contacts left there.
3b-
“These new lsiting can join all the others that are currently rotting away on the market.”
agreed… I’m seeing the same thing in hunterdon county.
An ex co-worker of mine bought a row house in Newark in 2004 as an investment property. I wonder how that is working out…
Al #103
You need to grow up and get real. Companies are doing it and everyone should do it. It is a flat world now and you should go where you get the best value for the money. Get your head out of the a@@ of USA and look around and you will see cost of a lot of things are a lot cheaper in US$. Use it while it lasts. Pretty soon the $ wil go to Zero
154 Maybe now it is: row, row, row your house underneath the water
155
Maybe now it is: row, row, row your house underneath the water
patient (129)-
“It might be fun to berate self-conscious New Yorkers at $500/hr.”
Ever been to The Vault, down in the meat-packing district?
news for vultures. But I bet it pushes the median price even higher.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aR.ViMzAX5Xo&refer=home
U.S. Economy: Confidence Drops, Manufacturing Fails to Increase
By Bob Willis and Courtney Schlisserman
Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) — Confidence among American consumers slumped to the lowest level since 1992 and factory output failed to increase, indicating the damage from the housing contraction is pushing the economy toward a recession.
The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 69.6 in February from 78.4 the previous month. The Federal Reserve said manufacturing production was unchanged in January after two months of gains, while a gauge of activity at New York factories contracted this month.
“We’re seeing a clear pattern of sudden weakening in both consumer and business confidence, which frankly is the sign of a recession,” said James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, who had the closest forecast for consumer sentiment in a Bloomberg News survey.
89 essex
especially if they’re loosing the dogs on you…
Check out mls # 2803187
A bargain at only $149,000
Love the pics!! Pay attention to the windows…
#159 a vault for meat? What is this, super valuable Kobe stuff?
pret (139)-
“The crash in New Jersey home prices that people predicted still isn’t showing up in the data.”
I guess it must be my bad breath and lack of personal hygiene that accounts for why my listings keep selling for between 15-25% off 2005 peak prices.
Anyone want to be my life coach? According to Pret, I must be selling my clients down the river.
NPR show about mortgage problems, etc:
http://tinyurl.com/2czb5b
when Bernanke is saying housing recovery by year end what does he mean? double digit gains and record breaking sales volume. Was 2007 not the 5th or 6th best year ever?
It seems they still want to drive the economy through RE
skep (141)-
With Pret, it’s always back to the Wil E Coyote/off the edge/legs still spinning analogy:
Until Wil E actually hits the canyon floor in a puff of smoke, Pret says things are status quo.
from FT
Insight: The next crisis will be over food
By Gillian Tett
Published: February 14 2008 19:06 | Last updated: February 14 2008 19:06
I used to think that the fastest way to become worried about markets was to stare into the bowels of a monoline. No longer. A few days ago, I happened to hear Goldman Sachs discuss the state of the global financial system with European clients.
And what struck me most forcefully from this analysis – aside from the usual, horrific litany of bank woes – was just how much trouble is quietly brewing in corners of the commodities world.
Never mind that oil prices are high; that problem is already well known and gallons of ink have been spilt debating that, along with the pressures in metals and mineral spheres.
Instead, what is really catching the attention of Goldman Sachs now is the outlook for agricultural prices. Or as Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at the US bank, says with disarming cheer: “We think we could go into crisis mode in many commodities sectors in the next 12 to 18 months . . . and I would argue that agriculture is key here.”
Now, to some readers of the Financial Times, that observation might seem odd. After all, inhabitants of the western world typically spend far more time worrying about the price of petrol for their car, rather than the price of wheat or corn. And when western investors do think about “commodity shock”, their reference point typically tends to be the 1970s oil crisis.
However, as Mr Currie observes, this is a dangerously blinkered view. Back in the 1970s, famine touched a much bigger proportion of the world’s population than the energy crisis, he says. And even today, rising food prices pack a powerful political punch in the developing (or partly-developed) world, to a degree that is sometimes underappreciated by the pampered west.
Indeed, there is already ample evidence that political tensions are building: the World Food Programme, for example, now thinks a third of the world’s population lives in countries with food price controls or export bans.
However, Goldman Sachs thinks this is just part of a much bigger problem of capital and resource misallocation. After all, Mr Currie argues, if the world today was a rational economic place, then regions such as the Gulf which are food-constrained ought to be investing heavily in agriculture. And since the US is the world’s biggest agricultural supplier, this implies that the Saudi Arabians, say, should be snapping up farms in Wisconsin – as America secures oil in the most efficient manner by sending teams of Texans to Riyadh.
But in practice numerous investment controls prevent Saudi Arabians from buying Wisconsin farms and Americans owning Saudi oil wells. And these controls are not being dismantled now. On the contrary, mutual mistrust is now rising. Hence the fact that Gulf leaders are currently considering desalinating sea water to plant wheat in the desert – while the US and Europe are trying to turn corn into fuel.
Such exercises might make sense in domestic political terms; but they are apt to be fiendishly expensive. Thus the upshot of this misallocation, Mr Currie would argue, is even more inflation – even if the world does experience some form of growth slowdown.
Now, for any investor who is long on commodities right now (and I would guess that club includes Goldman Sachs), such trends might seem to smack of good news. For anybody who is dirt poor in the developing world, however, the picture is disastrous.
A WFP official, for example, recently showed me the red plastic cup that is used to dole out daily rations to starving Africans – and then explained, in graphically moving terms, that this vessel is typically now only being filled by two-thirds each day, because food prices are rising faster than the WFP budget.
But leaving aside this very real human tragedy, what should also be crystal clear for investors is that this is not a picture that points to 21st-century capital markets progress; nor is it likely to breed stability in the medium term. Anyone who thinks this decade’s problems start and end with credit, in other words, may yet receive a rude shock; sadly, we live in a world where soyabeans may yet pack as painful a punch as subprime.
thatBIGwindow Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Check out mls # 2803187
A bargain at only $149,000
Love the pics!! Pay attention to the windows…
Exterior construction: Brick
All you need to do is fill your windown with Brick , install 1/2 inch reinforced steel door, and you got yourself a Safe Place to live!!!
# 166 “It seems they still want to drive the economy through RE”
For most Americans what else is there? 401(k)s are underfunded. Investments in the market are generally penny ante. Holdings in other real assets, as oposed to overpriced shoes or handbags are minimal. People view housing as the path to,if not riches, at least some level of wealth.
If RE is not doing well, people do not feel wealthy (even if they have a zero down option ARM) and they dont pay gardeners, buy at Home Depot, Stickley, et al.
I for one would rather see sanity restored by letting the market take its lumps quickly. A long slow torture of 1,000 cuts over an extended period is worse than a large pain that is over quickly.
Shore (163)-
Nope. A “vault” where a lady in PVC puts a dog collar on you and “berates” you mightily.
regarding catalytic converters.
Good luck trying to milk the platinum out of them. (some of them also use Palladium)
You need to refine the catalytic converter, which is a process that involves chemicals and extreme heat to burn everything that is not precious metal, it is a very expensive process. (you can’t do it on your stove!)
Also, the ammount of PT solution that goes into a single converter is not even 1 GR.
And then, after you extract the PT out and you refine it to burn what is not pure metal, you have to analyze it to find out if it is indeed pure (in the analysis process, some will be lost)
So, unless you are on the business of refining precious metals, it is nonsense to even think of scraping the metal out of a converter, you simply can’t.
Dan (172)-
Where else but here can you get this kind of info?
# 171
Ah, it is a wedding chapel, then.
From the WSJ
Mexican oil output has declined steadily from its peak of 3.4 million barrels a day in 2004 and is expected to fall to 2.8 million barrels a day by the end of this year. If that continues, Mexico will likely stop exporting oil within seven years (2015). The country relies on oil exports for about a third of government revenue. And Mexico is the third-largest supplier of oil to the U.S., behind Canada and Saudi Arabia.
Yes this relates to politics, economics and real estate. The effect that a drastic reduction in oil export form mexico would have will be felt by all. Increased oil prices, increased food prices (oil and food and intimately linked by way of fertilizer and transport costs), and on top of that if mexico looses a significant revenue stream and conditions deteriorate in mexico, then immigration becomes an even hotter topic then it has been. whether we like it or not mexico has real impacts on the US
# 172 Yes but you get to tell your wife you bought her PT.
176 Shore
good point
Clott 173
enjoy
How to extract platinum from a catalytic converter
A stepwise carbochlorination–chemical vapor transport (SC–CVT) process is proposed for the rare earth extraction and separation from a mixed bastnaesite-monazite concentrate based on thermodynamic and kinetic analysis using carbon as reductant, chlorine gas as chlorination agent, SiCl4 as defluorination agent, and AlCl3 as vapor complex former. Between 500 deg C and 800 deg C, apparent activation energy of the carbochlorination within 2 hours changed from 22 to 16 kJ/mol roughly for the initial half hour and final 1 hour, respectively, in the absence of SiCl4; but these values reduced to 15 and 2.1 kJ/mole under 2 kPa of SiCl4 gas. The rare earth chloride yield for 2 hours was 56 to 88 mol pct in the absence of SiCl4 and 92 to 99 mol pct in the presence of SiCl4; but carbochlorination at above 1000 8C yielded a large amount of acid-insoluble residue. This, together with the negligible equilibrium vapor pressure of ThCl4 at below 600 8C, suggests that carbochlorination of the mixed concentrate at temperatures as low as 500 8C in the (Cl2 1 SiCl4) atmosphere is suitable for rare earth extraction and thorium-free volatile by-product release, which is different from the conventional Goldschmidt process at 1000 8C to 1200 8C. The CVT reaction of the carbochlorination product was performed at 800 8C for 0.5 hours in the (Cl2 1 SiCl4 1 AlCl3) atmosphere and then at 1000 8C for 6 hours in the (Cl2 1 AlCl3) atmosphere along different temperature gradients, leading to complete thorium removal and efficient rare earth separation, respectively. Their combination allows an efficient and environmentally conscious extraction and separation of rare earth elements from the mixed concentrate.
Ann Says:
I think part of the problem is that there aren’t that many lower comps yet.
The guy who sits next to me at work lives in Westfield. He just said his next door neighbor wanted out quick, listed their house for $599k, and it sold in a day. I have no idea what the house is like but he seemed shocked that they would sell that cheaply. That’s the new comp for that portion of Westfield. Appraisals will have to take it into consideration. I didn’t have the heart to say that’s what your house is worth now.
#166 cross: Nah it just means he gets to put it off for the rest of this year, then when it does not (and it will not) turn around by year end he pushes it off into next years.
But for this year at least he does not have to pretend any more.
178 kettle
lol
This reminds me of:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww
Re: Newark
We were in Newark last weekend and I was very surprised at the new housing that has been built/is being built. From what I understand, this area (MLK Blvd/West Kinney) had tall projects that were knocked down and row houses were/are being built. The ones we passed on MLK were brick, well kept and really nice looking. Around the corner were houses that are in the process of being built. Hopefully, these will make a difference. They are right near the JFK Rec Center which, while not new, is amazing. They have a huge pool and diving well and in the summer the roof retracts and it becomes an outdoor pool.
It would be great if this type of building helps Newark.
Back to catalytic converters.
Is palladium a viable substitute?
I am getting ready to break my rental lease early since I am moving to NC. There are 6 units in my complex identical to mine already available for rent for the same time period. I will still owe $2500 of rent after moving out until my lease is up.
I asked for permission to list on craigslist and pay someone to start a new lease. I was thinking of offering $500 move in bonus. Will this be effective? Is there anything else I can do to entice someone to pick my unit over the others?
Rachel
I acknowledge that home prices are crashing in many suburbs. The value of a suburban condo I sold last year is dropping like a rock – the guy I sold it to is trying to sell it and his current asking price is lower price than he paid me.
However, on a statewide basis, prices aren’t crashing. It is the creative data mining employed by many posters here which creates that impression.
Dan,
In what way does that remind you of miss SC?
Ready to Buy Says:
agreed… I’m seeing the same thing in hunterdon county.
Have you seen this place? Here’s where many of those places sitting there will end up
http://tinyurl.com/ywg8v3
MLS#: 2435683
GSLMS has this to say about it;
SHORT SALE! BRING AN OFFER WHILE YOU STILL HAVE THE CHANCE!! Spacious Colonial Mountaintop Retreat with Breathtaking Views, Center Island, Hardwood Floors, Game Room, Hot Tub in Master Bedroom
catalytic converters study – special for BC Bob:
http://openlearn.open.ac.uk/mod/resource/view.php?id=211951
183 BC
Depending on the type of Catalytic converter they use Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium in different combinations and percentages that are mixed into a solution (mixed with some other things) in which the ceramic substrates are dipped into to make the catalytic converters.
183 bob,
Short answer is no.
Semi short answer is that you can use less platinum and more palladium but there are trade offs and tech limits. There are other metals that can be used but do not work as well or are not used due to undesirable emissions such as dioxins
#185 pret
True, but most people (like me) only care about one area, not the entire state, and the bottom-line is that those areas _are_ seeing declines and not stagnation.
whats the address for that washigton twp home #2435683
kettle1 Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
In what way does that remind you of miss SC?
****
Just that I read the post (178) and half way through it I lost it. just that, no harm intended.
112 Knob Hill, not a bad looking place.
179 x underwriter
Exactly. Now that’s the comp for his place. My listing agent was ticked at us for lowering our price because it messed with all her other listings and the comps for her territory, I mean ‘hood. She actually said it, joking of course, ha ha.
112 Knob Hill,
That’s Washington TWP in Morris County, not Bergen.
The architecture is a little funky, but not a bad house. Someone else has the identical model on the market for four something
vodka (178)-
Thanks. I think I can do this in a convection oven, if I use my pizza stone.
#99
Grim: I can’t see how this doesn’t result in an exodus of boomers and retirees.
What the boomers don’t yet see is that when we all scram we’re just going to create the same situation wherever we go.
197 clott
yep, just put it on broil
#185 young pret: is the creative data mining employed by many posters here which creates that impression.
Something of course one could never accuse you of employing.
And so are you sasying that all of grim’s hard work (and others) is is creative data mining?
Incredibly insulting.
Al, Dan, Kettle,
Thanks.
Pre,
Why are they selling these in Hoboken hardware stores?
http://www.midwestinternetsales.com/stjoseph/
I thought Gold Coast RE sold itself?
# 197
Reminds me of the first lesson I got in microwave usage as a young whippersnapper.
Day after Thanksgiving, I thought that I’d put a plate together for myself. Piled on the turkey, mashed potatos, gravy, and all the rest. Put the plate in the ‘nuke, and turned it on. I must have warped the time/space continuum by doing this, and quantum leap’ed myself all the way to the 4th of July, because there were serious fireworks going on in there.
Once I realized that it wasn’t at the Hayden Pink Floyd Laser Light Show, and something bad might be happening, I shut the thing down. Took the plate out, everything looked fine.
After clearing off some of the plate (yes, I still ate it), I realized what happened.
I vaporized the gold leaf off my mother’s best china. Needless to say, that plate was relegated to the bottom of the stack and I prayed that night, that we’d never have more than 24 people over for Thanksgiving again.
nope, knob hill isn’t a a bad looking place, but you’re looking at powerlines if its your place.
pret (185)-
“However, on a statewide basis, prices aren’t crashing. It is the creative data mining employed by many posters here which creates that impression.”
My last year’s worth of sold inventory is not creative data mining. It is what it is.
RE markets rot from the outside in. Enjoy the final days you have before your own home begins to plunge in value. It is now certain to happen.
“It’s different here.”
“It’s different now.”
“It’s happening somewhere else.”
“My town/block/home is different, because _______.”
“It’s a new paradigm.”
Yeah, right.
X
hmm nice mcmansion style development right under some high voltage lines….
note that the empty roads near the house are now a fully built McNiegborhood
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=112+Knob+Hill+long+valley+nj&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=59.252398,103.535156&ie=UTF8&ll=40.829446,-74.812313&spn=0.003507,0.009838&t=h&z=17
Clott
how to make a plazma ball in the microwave!!!!
http://tinyurl.com/yl6ydu
boken (198)-
“What the boomers don’t yet see is that when we all scram we’re just going to create the same situation wherever we go.”
Just look at Cary, NC.
kettle1,
That myth about powerlines being harmful is bul….zzzzttttttt
The whole street is for sale. Here’s another one
http://www.fizber.com/New-Jersey/buy-Single-Family-home-1279989.html
I keep track of home sales in my town. I made a list of sales from the last 8 months in which the same property was previously sold in 2004 or later. Every single transaction is a positive comp. Not saying there won’t be a negative one eventually, but shows that home prices are not crashing everywhere.
Grim, I just sent you the file. Could you post it?
203
grim, did you pray to the Saint of Gold-Plated China?
hey X
you know those guys who claim to build these fantastic Free Energy machines. Well it turns out that most of these guys are pulling power out of nearby high voltage lines using the RF radiation they give off. most of those free energy devices stop working once you get to far from high voltage lines
Kettle
Any thoughts on Thermal Catalytic Cracking. From what I read you pass the fuel vapor over various metals Cu Ni etc this breaks the hydrocarbons down giving a cleaner burn and therefore more MPG.
Not a chemist or Mech Eng, so I’m not sure if its quack science.
Pre (210),
Did you track improvements (additions, new ktichen & baths, etc) and if the hime was a knock down?
Rich
just my 2 cents, but i have no intention of living near high voltage lines
3b,
I’m grateful of grim’s work. Rich in NNJ also posts great data about Bergen County, particularly the historic inventory #s.
But I do believe the infamous comp killer posts qualify as selective data mining. It would be nice if they were balanced with “comp thrillers” once in awhile.
Data Mining?
-Hedge funds barring withdrawals
-Concerns for GMAC
-$200B of additional writedowns
-Bergabe, “further slowing ahead”, “US markets to remain under significant strains”
That was served with coffee this morning.
Forget about data mining and monte carlo simulations. Anybody who can teach me how to slice rabbits?
grim, did you pray to the Saint of Gold-Plated China?
I buried a gravy boat. I don’t know what g-d I appeased by doing it, but it must have worked. I was rewarded with two at my wedding.
PGC,
I have only read about it in passing, but from what i know i do not see it revolutionizing our current tech. Thermal catalytic cracking is the process that ha been used for decades for processing raw oil. It is also used in many other fields.
It may have applications, but probably not in standard (ICE) internal combustion engines. From a tech standpoint we have pushed ICE well into the point of diminishing returns. We can continue to refine ICE but the gains made now are very small given how refined modern engines already are.
kettle1 Says:
you know those guys who claim to build these fantastic Free Energy machines
There’s no free lunch. If there was, we’d be using it already. My dad worked for Exxon building refineries and then installed huge steam turbines for electrical powerplants all over the world. I asked him about all these green energy things and he’s skeptical of them all. We keep using oil because it’s the cheapest energy out there. Solar and wind just aren’t efficient enough yet. I have to admit that geothermal intrigues me though.
Pre,
https://njrereport.com/files/Weehawken_home_prices.xls
#216 pret:But I do believe the infamous comp killer posts qualify as selective data mining. It would be nice if they were balanced with “comp thrillers” once in awhile.
Perhaps there are not a whole lot of comp thrillers to balance it with.
Rich,
There aren’t any knockdowns on the list. You’ll notice that I noted transactions in which substantial improvements have taken place.
I’ve visited a lot of these places. It is clear that most of them haven’t been substantially improved in a long time.
kettle,
Produce something fast. Anglo Platinum shut down its smelter last night, for 4-6 weeks.
what are you asking for BC, i do not understand
with all the news regarding GMAC (i.e)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=an15nuhm7JxA
Would it be safe to get a mortgage from them? The Company I work for has a program with pretty good benefits.
Any comments would be greatly appreciated.
Grim:
did you ever seen a closing on 66 Skyview
in clifton
it was a fsbo
thks.
I should have said, my employer has an agreement with GMAC where the program highlights given are not bath
thanks
BC
Platinum is a good example/ analogy of the issue of going to electric cars on a large scale. many of the high capacity battery tech’s use precious metals in their systems. So if you go large scale electric, things are going to get expensive very quickly as the demand for high value previous metals go through the roof
Kettle thanks that just made my day. What is left of the scientist in me wants to go home and play now. If colonials in in Northern Jersey were priced like that Hunterdon home I probably would not be renting any more. Although those bay windows are a bit unsightly. Washington Township is just to far of a commute for me.
Would it be safe to get a mortgage from them? The Company I work for has a program with pretty good benefits.
Safe? I’m not sure I understand.
Assuming you understand the contract and loan, the only thing you should care about is that they make it to the closing table. After that point, it really doesn’t matter.
(Yes, yes, I know we can probably get into a discussion about late escrow here).
#216 Pret
Taking one from your spreadsheet.
600 HARBOR BLVD,UNIT#1071
Factor in the 4% commission on the sale and it’s a 3% loss.
BC (217)-
“Anybody who can teach me how to slice rabbits?”
Sure. It’s very much like butchering a chicken, except there are two tenderloins, very much like beef/deer. You want to make sure to get those, as they are very tender and tasty.
I am assuming you know how to skin a rabbit, so I won’t bother with that part.
159, 172
Clot, is that where I know you from? :)
Pre,
What about the homes that don’t sell?
Shouldn’t we factor those in?
grim Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Pre,
https://njrereport.com/files/Weehawken_home_prices.xls
Pre,
How come there are no sales shown for November or December of ’07?
PGC (232)-
4% commish out is often a sign of a distress sale (short sale, pre-foreclosure, REO, etc).
“grim Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Pre,
What about the homes that don’t sell?
Shouldn’t we factor those in?”
No.
Schlivo,
Because nothing sold during those months that previously sold in 2004 or later.
painhrtz
if you do that experiment, then you are probably going to knock out all of the radios in close proximity to your house while you are generating the plasma. Its only temperoray, so not a problem, but the plasma puts out huge amounts of radio Freq noise ( and i dont mean the kind you hear)
lost (234)-
I only went as an observer. :)
#238 What about the homes that don’t sell?
Shouldn’t we factor those in?”
No.
Hmmm Sounds like data mining to me. Or perhaps data ignoring.
So if 20 hosues were for sale and only 2 sold, we should focus on only the fact that 2 sold?
Would no the fact that the other 18 have not sold (all else being equal) be indicative perhaps of the state of the amrket as a whole? In my mind at least it would.
Does it pay to refinance your mortgage?
If you have good terms now, it may not pay
http://c-n.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080215/REALESTATE/80215019
* You don’t want to refinance your loan if:
1. You owe more on the house than the house is now worth.
2. You have a 100-percent or 80/20 loan and didn’t put any money down
3. You live in heavily inflated markets where home prices have dropped dramatically.
4. Also important to remember that many people won’t qualify today for refi’s, due to stricter income verification requirements (stated income loans are gone; loans now require real-income verification) and stronger lending standards.
* You do want to refinance if:
1. You have an adjustable-rate mortgage and plan to stay in the house.
2. You have a fixed-rate mortgage of 7 percent or higher. The old adage in the mortgage industry is that anyone who will save 2 percent on their rate should refinance. This still applies today, with some modifications.
#237 Clot
I was giving him 4% for a dual agency. A lot of listings in Hudson are 5% for differing agencies and 4% in house.
Overall it looks like a flipper got out with a 50K loss. That is probably not bad considering the damage that could have been done.
Grim and 3b,
How can one observe a price if no transaction takes place?
OFHEO sort of does this by using appraisal data.
PGC,
Interesting that you chose to ignore all the flips that most likely generated triple digit IRRs.
Pret- I am trying to find thouse listings in GMLS – it seems that they were not there???
where did you get thouse data from?
124 – Ann
I actually laughed out loud at your post. Thanks for that.
And since I’m posting, may as well add that I started going back to open houses in Ridgewood. Seems like activity is decent, since there always seems to be a few other couples looking whenever we went – to our surprise. Also a few weeks ago, looked at a house (in the $1.5mm range) where we were told the owners had received two offers before the open house – the next week the house was off the market (at what we heard was a much higher price). That house may have been an anomaly since I see a lot of houses still sitting, and slowly declining in price. So, in sum, even with the general trends, it’s still difficult to tell what’s happening today or with any given house.
-P
“Because nothing sold during those months that previously sold in 2004 or later.”
But that makes for a relatively small date set during the quarter(Q4 ’07) that the NAR reported the most dramatic price declines nationally. Certainly not large enough to predict with any degree of certainty that “prices will remain flat”.
#243 ithink-ithink
Of if the change in LTV takes you over the 80% threshold triggering the requirement for mortgage Insurance.
Does anyone know when the conventional loan limit increase is set to be effective? If so when?
Also – can it be that amongst 20 the listings which you picked there will be about 10 cases of mortgage fraud – the ones where gomes were bought and sold withing 6 month???
Do you have information about amount of cash back and load status on thouse properties?
Why aren’t they sold through MLS?
Al,
Different MLS, Hudson MLS is run by the Liberty Board. Different from the NJMLS and GSMLS.
#245 pret: Price yes. But what does it say of the movement, or the strength of the market for a given area as a whole? That is my point.
Kettle I know and with all the riff raff in my neighborhood blasting their stereos all hours of the day. I’m thinking of opening up some intelligently planned warfare upon them. Their stereos not them personally. Why do the mentally challenged think I want to listen to La mega or Hot 97 at 3 in the morning I’ll never know.
#246 Pret
I just picked one from your list.
Can you re-issue the spread sheet using 96% of the latest Sale price to factor in the sale commission. That will give a better indication if these sales are making money.
I don’t want to end up like an episode of “Pinks”, but I’m givng you 1% on the commission and the rest of the closing costs on the buy and sell to make your arguement.
Pain
You might appreciate this link then
http://tinyurl.com/369zup
NEWS FROM REUTERS
Analysts Warn UBS Write-Downs Could Double
UBS Reveals New U.S. Loans Exposure, Sees Tough 2008
Banks to Ask U.S. Govt. to Take Bad Loan Risk – WSJ
Credit Crunch Costs Commerzbank One Billion Euros
U.S. Subprime Lawsuits Set to Outpace S&L Cases – Study
U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise in Latest Week
Japan Banks’ Subprime Losses $5.6 Bln – Regulator
Germany Agrees Third Rescue for Subprime-Hit IKB
Rogue Trader Kerviel Appeals Against Detention
Morgan Stanley Cuts 1,000 Mortgage Jobs
Hedge Fund Ups Countrywide Stake, Attacks Merger
FDIC Chief: New U.S. Foreclosure Plan not Cure-All
U.S. Banks to Pause Delinquent Mortgage Foreclosures
Banks Will Split Bond Insurers if Necessary – Source
SocGen Rights Issue Seen no Deterrent to Predators
UK Banks Eye Results Boost, but no Magic Bullet
Bankers Rap Low Bonuses…and Buy Their Next Patek
Capital One Charge-Offs Rise, Delinquencies Steady
IndyMac Posts $509 Mln Loss, Scraps Dividend
Buffett Offers to Reinsure $800 Bln in Muni Bonds
Citigroup Plans $3.5 Bln Facility to Support SIVs
U.S. Senate Panel Examining Sovereign Wealth Funds
Citi, Goldman Most Exposed to Loan Writedowns – Report
UK Considers Inquiry Into Egg’s Cancelled Cards
SocGen Seeks Cash to Shore Up Finances
U.S. Leveraged Loans May Add to Bank, Economic Woes
Countrywide to Aid More Mortgage Borrowers
SocGen Woes Mean Rich Pickings for Bankers, Taxman
Does anyone know when the conventional loan limit increase is set to be effective? If so when?
I haven’t yet seen a press release from Freddie or Fannie on this.
The increase is retroactive, however, only for the holders of the paper, not the borrowers. Remember, the bailout isn’t for us, it’s to help the banks get this illiquid paper off their books.
The next bubble to burst will be the reality that you cant bank on your salary always increasing especially when an economy is in or close to a recession.
Salaries/bonuses are next.
Pension Bubbles started ending years ago.
Social Security doesnt increase enough for the bubble to matter unless you want to retire into a mobile home.
Real Estate Brokers Must Hate Economists
The next reason to reconsider using a real estate agent — or paying them the six percent — comes from a new NBER paper by B. Douglas Bernheim and Jonathan Meer of Stanford University.
The duo looked at six services, typically bundled, that real estate brokers offer and tried figure out if the typical commission was worth it.
The six services they identified:
1) Preparing homes for sales, circulating flyers, placing advertisements, holding open houses, and recommending the house to buyers
2) Assisting with negotiations
3) Matching buyers and sellers
4) Providing access to the Multiple Listing Service
5) Providing market information and recommendations on the asking price
6) Assisting with paperwork and legal documentation
How much do these cost on their own? Access to MLS can be had for about $300, market information from professional appraisals usually costs a few hundred dollars, and in Illinois were sellers are required to retain real estate attorneys, legal fees cost $700. So, half of the services real estate agents provide cost $1,400, Berhneim and Meer estimate, which is only enough to justify a 6 percent commission on a $23,000 home.
But if you do want to sell your home fast, then using a broker seems to be the way to go. On the Stanford campus, the probability of a sale was 25 percent higher if a home was represented by a broker. (But as the 2005 paper showed, that probably means the homes could’ve been sold for a higher price.)
What I did notice, is beginning on March 1st, 2008, Freddie will be adding additional risk-based fees..
http://www.freddiemac.com/singlefamily/news/newsletter/2008/01/pricing.html
Nom Deplume [91]
“In light of the market and the tax/debt overhang that New Jersey has, am I an idiot for considering buying in this market?”
I have brought this point up before and believe it to be the biggest risk out there for a new home buyer in NJ. I think most realize that housing in NJ is always going to be more expensive compared to other parts of the country. Most likely, new home buyers are going to have to extend a little bit to get into a decent first house. If you overextend on your mortgage but compensate for it by making improvements in other parts of your budget, you will likely be OK. However, it tough to plan for what is going to happen with RE taxes, but all signs point to continued massive increases in NJ. There are many reasons for this, the obvious one being the horrible financial situation that NJ is in, and the fact that there is no political leadership available to do anything about it. The reason there is no political leadership is that there is no political fallout (at least not yet) for continuously raising real estate taxes by egregious amounts.
The fact is that NJ is a pure welfare state, where the only growing industry is the government titty. The last bastion of funding for the ever expanding welfare state is home owners with decent enough salaries to keep the cash coming. The major constituencies of the current NJ regime are wealthily liberal democrats, who love the idea of more taxes and can afford it, those who don’t pay taxes at all, and those who make their living off the government. This toxic mixture is a proverbial perfect storm for massive future increases in real estate (and other) taxes. In addition, we are darn close to gettign a similar situation at the federal level.
However, this empire will fall, as governments built on this model always do. But until that happens, you need to budget for massive increases in taxes in the years to come, which severely limits your buying power today in an already inflated housing market. Any first time home buyer needs to take this into account and plan accordingly.
I think pretorius makes a fair point, which seems to boil down to a flight to quality argument. However, as prices in the further out and otherwise less desireable areas decline further and further, it is only a matter of time before the top areas go down too.
Five and six are worthless, I can call a few agents and have than provide me their market analysis of the price of my home for free. Plus when I do a FSBO the lawyer does all the paperwork anyhow. 1,2,3 and 4 are 99% of the value of a realtor.
The six services they identified:
1) Preparing homes for sales, circulating flyers, placing advertisements, holding open houses, and recommending the house to buyers
2) Assisting with negotiations
3) Matching buyers and sellers
4) Providing access to the Multiple Listing Service
5) Providing market information and recommendations on the asking price
6) Assisting with paperwork and legal documentation
131 Ann/133 Confused
Thanks – saved me saying the same things.
…and same for 135 skeptic…..
139 pretorius
All hell is about to break loose.
“Clotpoll Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
patient (129)-
“It might be fun to berate self-conscious New Yorkers at $500/hr.”
Ever been to The Vault, down in the meat-packing district?”
Me? You mean recently? Er…why would you ask such a thing?
Not sure if this has been posted already since my days have been busier than usual lately ever since the credit markets started falling apart (finally) but I’m sure some of you have seen the Summit Park Condo auctions slated for March 1st. These are decades old garden style apartments that were purchased a couple years ago. An investor attempted to fix some of them up and then convert to condos. I guess he hasn’t been having too much success selling them so he is auctioning off 35 of them (10 absolute). The minimum suggesting opening bid for the non-absolute units is $150K. Most of them are 2bd, 1.5bth.
Now here is the rub. Assuming that you put 20% down, you cannot bid anything over $100K and make 10% on your money since there is a $400 maintenance fee and $5K in taxes per year and rents are $1,200 – $1,300 per year! These things are on the market for $300+K right now too. LOL! Talk about a screwed up rent/own situation.
get the black suits out Hov cut two notches.
when will the bk come?
Not sure if this has been posted already since my days have been busier than usual lately ever since the credit markets started falling apart (finally) but I’m sure some of you have seen the Summit Park Condo auctions slated for March 1st. These are decades old garden style apartments that were purchased a couple years ago. An investor attempted to fix some of them up and then convert to condos. I guess he hasn’t been having too much success selling them so he is auctioning off 35 of them (10 absolute). The minimum suggesting opening bid for the non-absolute units is $150K. Most of them are 2bd, 1.5bth.
Now here is the rub. Assuming that you put 20% down, you cannot bid anything over $100K and make 10% on your money since there is a $400 maintenance fee and $5K in taxes per year and rents are $1,200 – $1,300 per year! These things are on the market for $300+K right now too. LOL! Talk about a screwed up rent/own situation.
I’m not sure why when people hear auction is automatically considered a good deal if not a bargain.
It’s really just another way of selling thats all. Especially if they have a price limit.
#272 Said:
“I’m not sure why when people hear auction is automatically considered a good deal if not a bargain.
It’s really just another way of selling thats all. Especially if they have a price limit.”
I agree with you. In this case, 10 are being sold absolute though so it will be interesting to see what happens.
But you need to be a male/female couple to get upstairs at the vault where all the action happens. However, they are quite strict on their no fluid exchange policy.
njpatient Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
“Clotpoll Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
patient (129)-
“It might be fun to berate self-conscious New Yorkers at $500/hr.”
Ever been to The Vault, down in the meat-packing district?”
Me? You mean recently? Er…why would you ask such a thing?
What is pathetic is the economic stimulus is based upon fed rate cuts and housing corrections. If they really want to boost the economy and avoid a recession they need to look at the real economic problems facing people like taxes, insurance and fuel costs which have gone up significantly in the last couple of years.
Charging more for taxes because of the number of people leaving NJ and raising tolls is only going to make things worse.
“lostinny Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
159, 172
Clot, is that where I know you from? :)”
I have no idea what you guys are talking about…
SG (261)-
There sure are a lot of dumb people out there that have paid me a lot over the years for a value-add that is nonexistent. :)
Everything in that study is common knowledge. And, real estate information is ubiquitous now. So why in the world doesn’t every seller out there team up with an appraiser and attorney and lop people like me off at the knees?
Let some f-in Stanford egghead get tenure by publishing a paper that states an advice and advocacy business model is worth no more than the sum of its parts. The only real losers in that are the people who actually believe it…and act on that belief.
Turmoil continues in the Municipal Auction market. This was one of the few really profitable areas left int eh business.
In my opinion look for some firms to exit the muni-auction business. And I seriously can see at least one or 2 of the big firms bagging the business entirely. (would not be the first time)
This is a perfect time to get out of a business (municipal bonds in general) whose overall profit margins have been declining for years.
I find this muni auction melt down ironic, as I was responsible for marketing the first one ever to come to market, all the way back in 1990.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20080214WKECQ4ZZ&from=home
#274 John: Do you know if Hogs & Heffers is still around? Now that was one really bizzare place.
Which is the best investment blog out there?
This is the most odd thing I’ve ever experienced.. I’m being filmed right now.
#283 grim
Do you have your light blue shirt on?
Are you smiling or looking ponderous?
What! No hand model stand-in.
You need to get in the union so you can protest this. You shouldn’t have to show your own hands. How low.
Or a fixed fake grin while you repeatedly press F5 hoping for a response.
O.K., while you’re at the keyboard, can we get a couple of spreadsheets over here?
I’m trying to find an update on a house from last July (remember you did the thread on “What would you pay?)
Re: Summit Park condos
I hear they are pretty close to the PJ’s. How much do you think they’re worth now?
NJPatient,
Don’t make me get the toys for MrsPatient!
Bi,
Thank you. I shorted Toll, 2 weeks ago, based on your long HB’s recommendation.
http://www.centredaily.com/business/story/406340.html
Spector, Roseman & Kodroff, P.C. Files Class Action Suit Against Municipal Mortgage & Equity, LLC
Hope this isn’t a dup. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080215/mortgage_bonds_investors.html?.v=1
Industry Group Limits Sales of Fannie, Freddie Loans Above Former $417,000 Limit
grim,
If I say something profound, will it be captured on film by the Nightline crew?
:)
261
Here’s how I see it. Realtors TM have the lock on the buyers with their superduper listing computer. Other databases have tried to compete (like Foxtons) and have obviously failed or not made inroads.
As a buyer, there is no incentive not to use one. Why not have someone drive you around, send you listings, hopefully help you make your decision wisely. Therefore, as a seller, it is wise to list, because you get access to those buyers.
Should the gov’t break up the MLS monopoly, for the good of the consumer?
When was the last time the government did anything for the good of the consumer?
Now if there was oil under the MLS…
Study: Subprime Mortgage Lawsuits Outpacing Savings & Loan Crisis
February 15, 2008
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2008/02/15/87384.htm
3b (279)-
No NYC club will ever top Save the Robots.
Clot I almost have to agree. But I’m still partial to Limelight- from long ago.
lost (289)-
That’s just completely over the line…
When can we expect your line of PVC clothing to come out?
Clot, I was simply offering to help MrsPatient with MrPatient. My line will not come out as Janet Jackson’s stylist stole my idea way back in the 90’s when she put her in that PVC coat with all the rings.
BC (290)-
Just think what a KHOV bankruptcy filing will do to the XHB. That thing has turned really ugly.
I was gonna cover a little position(initiated @ $20.39) I took on that when bi dared me to short it, but now I think I’ll let it run. Good times.
Had a platinum kat replaced under warranty a couple of weeks ago. I had to sign the work order when it was done so the dealer could be reimbursed. $884 part cost!
I asked for the part they removed even though I hadn’t paid a nickel. (Hey, you’re supposed to be able to do that with any reputable mechanic.) They laughed at me.
BTW, anybody notice that Jimmy Rogers is fleeing the country?
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/fop/embedflv/swf/fop_wrapper.swf?id=6333564
Ann (293)-
Foxtons was part of the MLS everywhere they operated in the US.
http://tinyurl.com/353w97
oh those poor nicaraguan kids…someday it’ll hit them – “what do you mean 18-1?!?!”
Clot [300],
The first HB filing, I put on my boots. The second, I tie my laces.
lost (297)-
Limelight was a helluva fun place. A good night back then was a trifecta of Irving Plaza/Limelight/Robots. Healthy and satisfying!
Although I’m now deeply troubled that I may know you from any one of those three places and/or The Vault.
Doesn’t Essex sell this stuff? I seem to remember a conversation.
We have a brand spanking new store in my neck of the woods, right across a busy street from a family restaurant. Lots of happy, scantily-clad mannequins in the windows. Get this: it used to be a furniture store. Lots and lots of windows.
Recession must be looming.
This product probably should be added to the investment list under pawn shops.
Any guidelines for how much of a haircut in either dollar or percentage terms a bank will accept for an REO?
I found one that may be of interest to me. The bank has it listed for essentially what the judgement was.
No fans of NJ Clubs?
JJ Rockers
Birch Hill
Club 35
rep (307)-
Depends on how long they’ve held it and how underwater they think they are. Some of the smaller banks will have a set-up where 1-2 people handle their small REO inventory. Sometimes those managers will try to be heroes or get the idea that they can unload these dumps for big $$$ and impress the bosses.
If the REO is held by a big lender, they tend to be much more realistic…and willing to take a hit.
301 Clotpoll
I thought they weren’t when they started?
“3b Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
So if 20 hosues were for sale and only 2 sold, we should focus on only the fact that 2 sold?
Would no the fact that the other 18 have not sold (all else being equal) be indicative perhaps of the state of the amrket as a whole? In my mind at least it would.”
3b,
This example seems absurd. Where in New Jersey are 90% of the listed homes pulled from the market?
Not if you werent wearing a necktie. The most bizare club is acquience up in the 20’s Walt Fraiser owns is and it is a “lifestyle” club.
3b Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
#274 John: Do you know if Hogs & Heffers is still around? Now that was one really bizzare place.
Mitchell (308)-
Hey, you’ve got the best places down there in Dogpatch:
Applebee’s
Po’ Folks
Waffle House
Anywhere in the US that you can find line dancing within 50 miles of where you stand is a place that’s unfit for human habitation.
Clot,
It’s obvious we ran (or could still run?) in the same circles. Don’t be troubled. Without divulging any more about myself, let’s just say I don’t remember a lot of it so you’re safe. And if you want to find out for sure, get my email from Grim.
I’m going to be crucified by the NAR/NJAR for the things I’ve said.
Ryan McFaddens is however where I spent my whole paycheck every Thursday for around 10 years straight.
Mitchell, there really is no comparison between NJ Clubs and NYC clubs from back in the day.
Ann (310)-
When Foxtons was YHD, the first step of the con was a non-MLS, “exclusive” listing. That was the bait; then, when it didn’t work, the client was switched into a regular MLS listing at a higher commish.
Grim don’t be a tease! What happened?
lost (314)-
Let’s let it die at that. Anyway, you probably still remember more than I do.
Al 247,
The homes sales data is from the county tax records.
Pat,
Wow! That is big news.
Group Sets Limits on Mortgage Bond Sales
Mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will not be allowed to include larger mortgages in a commonly used market where investors trade mortgage-backed securities before they are issued, an industry group said Friday.
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a banking industry group, said those larger loans above the former limit of $417,000 will not be allowed on a widely used trading market, known as the “To Be Announced” market, which permits investors to buy and sell mortgage-backed securities before the loan pools are put together.
…
Fannie and Freddie will temporarily be able to buy loans as high as $729,750 under an economic stimulus package signed into law Wednesday by President Bush.
But Sean Davy, a managing director at SIFMA, said loans larger than $417,000 exhibit different characteristics than loans below that limit. For example, wealthier homeowners are more likely to pay off their loans earlier.
Therefore, he said, bankers decided that those loans should be packaged and sold separately. Doing so, he said, will be less disruptive for mortgage market investors.
Strangest night I had for weirdness is I went to 4D in times square, while I was circling for a spot I saw a lady run over and then Chers Bagel Boy Boyfried was behind the bar hitting on my friends girlfriend, equally weird when I was 18 Bruce Willis was my favorite bartender at the china club.
grim (315)-
Let’s compare stigmata sometime…
#315 grim
grim is to NJAR, as Joe Lieberman is to the Democratic party?
TBAs are used to pool for MBSCC registration which gets you a cusip and a DTC eligble security, without it only the big boys can trade it and pricing is not transparent and there is settlement risk. .
Clot don’t sweat it. I would have said something if I recognized you.
#311 pret: Not sure what you are talking about.
I was simply using an example. I will spell it out again.
22 houses for sale in a town, 2 sell at what appear to be very compelling prices for the seller, but the other 20 are not selling.
That to me is more telling of the health of a market as opposed to the 2 houses that sold.
That’s all I am saying;nothing more
John (316)-
Chasing models, or just getting hammered?
LOL – Line dancing. I’m 38 now so clubbing for me is a bit different. Now its poker night with the guys for me.
Your right NJ clubs arent NY. I prefer a beer and a pool table with some drunken Staten Island girls. Easy on the wallet.
I’m surprised the Vault is still around.
Anyone been to the Truckadero in SanFran or the Rainbow room in LA? CabStand in Tallahassee?
Sorry Mitchell. This SI girl will take a city club any day.
John,
Translate… What does that mean for the GSE jumbo market? Or lack thereof.
#316 John: i spent the first 4 nights of the grand opening of Ryan McFadden’s.
I am told I had a graet time.
grim (322)-
Hoo haw…that’s so ’90s:
“But Sean Davy, a managing director at SIFMA, said loans larger than $417,000 exhibit different characteristics than loans below that limit. For example, wealthier homeowners are more likely to pay off their loans earlier.”
Yeah, right…maybe this was the case back when that kind of borrower had to prove income and make a down payment.
Mitchell (330)-
“I prefer a beer and a pool table with some drunken Staten Island girls.”
NC offers many equivalent experiences for you, Mitchell.
And, since you’re from up here, it’s unlikely that any of those girls will be your cousin.
My wife was a NY clubber. She was also a bartender at snappers in newark. ;)
For example, wealthier homeowners are more likely to pay off their loans earlier.
This has nothing to do with the propensity to repay debt. Has everything to do with the benefit of refinancing. Higher loan balances see a greater net benefit from refinancing. Lenders simply face a higher prepayment risk due to refinancing when mortgage balances are higher than normal.
From Inman:
Radian group’s losses top $1 billion
Private mortgage insurer Radian Group Inc. reported a $618 million fourth quarter loss today, bringing losses for the year to $1.2 billion.
…
Analysts at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services last month boosted by 20 percent their loss projections for mortgage and bond insurers, citing deteriorating performance of subprime loans packaged into securities.
Grim, I was getting worried about you. You were too quiet for too long.
I thought you forgot to ask the supposed crew for ID at the door and they were NAR operatives.
“lostinny Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
NJPatient,
Don’t make me get the toys for MrsPatient!”
LOL
was that on TV?
#315
grim, the NAR should be thanking you for doing their job . I still do not understand why the NAR isn’t shouting from the rooftops that homes are overpriced. Don’t they want to close deals? Spin and relisting aren’t working for their members.
Just got tag teamed at my local Chase…the bank employee offers to make deposit your check for you, and then while making the deposit, access your records and a quick financial “check-up”. They ended up trying to talk me into a mortgage, lol! The onsite loan officer, and one of the bank employees. Reminded me I am eligible for closing fees discount if I financed thru Chase. ha! I’ve been going to this same branch for 20 years, this is the 2nd time in 3 months this has happened. Looks like times are a changing. I did mention that I felt I would sit this out for another two years, not ready to buy, as I have a rent stablized apartment and have very cheap rent. I got the lecture about how this is a great time to buy, interest rates are at an all time low, etc.., etc… I did question them about the subprime mess, etc..global recession, drop in RE in NYC if the financial markets continue to tight their belts…. and I got “Oh, you’re one of those.” They wouldn’t engage me in any further discussion. We’ll see how many times I get tagged again in the next few months. Stay tuned!
“Clotpoll Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
lost (297)-
Limelight was a helluva fun place. A good night back then was a trifecta of Irving Plaza/Limelight/Robots. Healthy and satisfying!
Although I’m now deeply troubled that I may know you from any one of those three places and/or The Vault.”
Clot – your memory is poor. You know her from the Hellfire Club.
“Oh, you’re one of those.”
you are no doubt on an FBI list by now.
#335 Clot you do know all blue eyed people can be traced back to a single persons genetic mutation from 10,000 years ago.
I dont club any more Clot most are private parties or poker night. Clubbing after 35 is for stalkers or creepy old people. Know where to draw the line. Joey.
If your wife’s hot ask her about Mitchell and watch her smile but wont tell you why or she starts crying cause I didn’t call.
“grim Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
I’m going to be crucified by the NAR/NJAR for the things I’ve said.”
Either that or you’ll be crucified by the moral majority for the things clotpoll, lostinny and I have said.
296 OMG I’ve been there too! Yikes. Usually after King Tut’s or the Pyramid. Or, this very strange series of East Village underground clubs in abandoned buildings or basements…Usually stopped inside a hallway by bodyguard with walkie talkies, then allowed to advance to the inner sanctum. Ahh, memories.
NJPatient, you mean Paddles?
I think this is going too far.
Sassy
The Pyramid. Uggh. That place still exists, just as dark and grungy as ever.
I am registered with the FBI and CIA because I used to do some work for all the prisons in the state of NJ. Made it much easier and faster going into prisons carrying weapons.
Was a great line to tell parents that would ask me what I did and I would tell them I spend most of my time in Prison, Police Stations and Psychiatric institutions. I had more than a free pass to do 150mph on the parkway.
My brother has an interesting position with the state of NJ where he works with a lot of judges, police, and municipalities.
345 Mitchell
Are you three?
Just dishing it back to Clot
348
Same type place, though that one’s been around longer
Patient
I know.
I’m sure!
#315 grim
Is there a 30 day money back refund on your dues available.
349 Yes, is Lady Bunny and Lipsinka still the hostesses with the mostest (uhm litterally, lol)?
Or, Wigstock was still held in the bandshell at Tompkins Square Park?
Sassy
I’m pretty sure they have moved on. Back in the day, lots of hot drag queens hung around/threw parties there, including RuPaul. But the majority of the parties that have been going on there, that I remember, are 80’s/goth/industrial nights. And while some might dress in goth drag, its not the same crowd. I was pretty sure Wigstock grew so big that it moved to the piers. I’m not sure what goes on now.
“Software Says:
February 15th, 2008 at 10:19 am
420K for education !!!
I did my 4 year Engg degree from India and probably spent less than $1,000 (ALL expenses included) 10 years ago.It might cost around 8,000 -10,000 these days. I make close to 200K in US now”
I’m a US citizen and completed my BS in Engg 4 years ago. it cost me around $15,000 for 4 years. I ended up getting a base salary of around $130K. ( ofcourse traffic, polution is horrible)I think US education is completely screwed up. People need to wake up or will be left behind. I’m not an immigrant and love this my country very much but reality is soo different. People who ignore outside world are the ones who will fall behind and probably end up having their children work in Wendy’s for $7/hr.
Wake up everyone, this is 21st century.
263. JBJB Says
Interesting & correct analogy. We talk about people owing more on their mortgages then the value of their house, potentially mailing in their key’s to the bank, and walking away from the property. Maybe Corzine et.al., will create the next phase, people with or without mortgages, mailing the bank or Corzine the key’s and walking away from their properties, as Taxes Exceed It’s Value. NJ Property Taxes are by Far the Gold Standard for Indentured Servitude in this State.
Yep, back then I was looking at a floor thru on West 11th and Washington streets for 48K (it was a foreclosure, needing cosmetic reno at the least). Just looked it up on , same apartment and nicely renovated just went for 825K! What a difference 20 years makes, lol! And, I’m still waiting to buy, and still living in the same rental apartment too!
dbba
if you started with a base salary of 130K with a BA in engineering, what the heck do you do????? the highest starting salary four a BS in engineering is about 55-60K. you will not generally see over 100K unless you are in managment. that is if you are in the engineering field
the link is from Calculated Risk. check out the pics, they are from sacremento, but it gives you a real perspective on things. enjoy
http://tinyurl.com/2qm4od
IT management.
Detroit – Metro home sales up by 15%
Sales of residential and condominium units in Detroit nearly doubled in January, compared with the same month a year ago, and the region overall got a nearly 15 percent bump, according to real estate data firm Realcomp.
The city of Detroit led the gainers, posting a 45.5 percent increase in the month, with 736 closings.
Robert Oppenheimer, Hans Bethe, John Van Vleck, Edward Teller, Felix Bloch, Emil Konopinski, Robert Serber, Stanley S. Frankel, and Eldred C. Nelson, Glenn Seaborg, Richard C. Tolman, Edward Teller, Enrico Fermi, Arthur Compton, etc.
Some Key American’s who worked on the Manhattan Project during WWII, rather then getting an MBA/CPA and making more money in Business. Glad they did, Hitler was close to one too. Actually, I’m also glad Thomas A. Edison & Alexander G. Bell, etc. stayed with their trades, rather then Wall Street.
Pretorius
What’s your thinking about Detroit (see 366)?
detroit is a hot market, we should all be buying. The schools will be great one we revive a few neighborhoods!!!
367
Also consider that in the times you speak of to be an engineer or scientist was a cut above. Now a scientist or engineer is just another service that can be outsourced and is treated as simply an operating expense instead of human capital
“The worst isn’t over, the worst is just beginning. We all know that.” – US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr, February 2008
Hey Suzanne, can you research this one for me? And hey, can you feed the squirrels on the way out, too?
Man, you go on vacation for a few days, and think it’s easy to catch up on this site … no.
Sounds like the gathering went well, but the wife and I were in warm weather for a few days.
I see nothing has changed, except this anarchy guy is quite comical.
The only thing that sucks about returning from vacation is seeing that once again, the rate on our online bank accounts are down. Blows. But we refuse to put it into a CD of any length, and we definitely wont be toying with the stock market. Guess we’ll just have to live with 3% until we find something.
JB,
Nevermind NJAR/NAR how is your broker about all this? I’m alway’s in hotwater for not drinking the Kool-aid, how do you get away with nightline interviews??
KL
Sometimes I feel like I am part of a cult, the one who doesn’t get it.
KL
Eep! Not very long ago it would have been inconceivable to see an article like this on Yahoo’s front page:
http://finance.yahoo.com/taxes/article/104384/Five-Homeownership-Tax-Myths
My advice to house buyers today is to take their down payment, invest it in a time machine, and go back to 1998. And while you’re there, find my 20-something self and tell him not to sell Apple too soon.
Wow, nostalgia is good stalgia…
Save the Robots. Limelight. Pffft. Outside of Danceteria for a brief window, clubs in the late ’80s were for B&T and poseurs.
But Irving Plaza when it was on 11th was the bee’s knees — especially with inside connections.
Oh, to be sixteen again!
Willow, 26
Rutgers is funding stadium expansion by selling bonds based on the income generated by the new seats being built. The new seats are already spoken for with the waiting list. No public money being spent, and they aren’t redirecting money from academics to athletics.
374. 1998 was also the year that Property Taxes started to skyrocket in NJ. My split in New Providence jumped from $5K to $6K that year. $12K in 2007/2008.
Sassy (342)-
At 6:30 tonight, I advised a homeowner to quit paying his Chase mortgage so that this fine lender would get serious about this borrower’s attempt to begin the short sale process.
The borrower had been eating a diet of toast 3-4 days a week in order to maintain his payments.
Paramus
SLD 193 CONCORD DR $640,000 10/22/2007
“RECENT UPGRADES, ADDITIONS AND IMPROVEMENTS”
ACT 193 CONCORD DR $648,000 12/3/2007
ACT* 193 CONCORD DR $648,000 12/15/2007
U/C 193 CONCORD DR $648,000 12/28/2007
SLD 193 CONCORD DR $620,000 2/15/2008
Agents have been very busy this week, adding another 1000 properties to the huge inventory. at this speed we will hit 100K properties on the market in few more weeks. Happy Spring market to everyone.
Mitchell (345)-
“If your wife’s hot ask her about Mitchell and watch her smile but wont tell you why or she starts crying cause I didn’t call.”
Mitchell, did you get this comeback from a re-run of Good Times? If so, you left out the “dy-no-mite!”.
Tenafly
SLD 114 LYLEWOOD DR $695,000 12/15/2005
ACT 114 LYLEWOOD DR $765,000 9/4/2007
PCH 114 LYLEWOOD DR $745,000 9/18/2007
ACT* 114 LYLEWOOD DR $745,000 10/2/2007
U/C 114 LYLEWOOD DR $745,000 10/17/2007
W-C 114 LYLEWOOD DR $745,000 11/14/2007
Relist, same broker and agent
ACT 114 LYLEWOOD DR $715,000 11/14/2007
ACT* 114 LYLEWOOD DR $715,000 11/16/2007
ARR 114 LYLEWOOD DR $715,000 11/27/2007
PCH 114 LYLEWOOD DR $699,000 12/18/2007
ACT* 114 LYLEWOOD DR $699,000 1/18/2008
U/C 114 LYLEWOOD DR $699,000 2/1/2008
SLD 114 LYLEWOOD DR $680,000 2/15/2008
toast with jam? peanut butter? or just untoasted toast?
i would at least hope it was weight watchers whole wheat. lowest carbs!
Mitchell (350)-
“My brother has an interesting position with the state of NJ where he works with a lot of judges, police, and municipalities.”
What is he? A bagman?
Too be fair, here’s a “winner”
Upper Saddle River
SLD 46 LAKE ST $1,225,000 7/31/2006
ACT 46 LAKE ST $1,399,000 7/31/2007
PCH 46 LAKE ST $1,299,999 10/1/2007
ACT* 46 LAKE ST $1,299,999 12/28/2007
U/C 46 LAKE ST $1,299,999 1/2/2008
EXT 46 LAKE ST $1,299,999 1/14/2008
BOM 46 LAKE ST $1,299,999 2/6/2008
ACT* 46 LAKE ST $1,299,999 2/7/2008
U/C 46 LAKE ST $1,299,999 2/7/2008
SLD 46 LAKE ST $1,230,000 2/14/2008
lost (359)-
We are- truly- Devo:
“I was pretty sure Wigstock grew so big that it moved to the piers.”
bath (383)-
I can laugh at a lot of things. Nothing about what I saw tonight was funny.
sync (366)-
Do sheriff sales count as sales?
clot and lost…
I have to say, I was so surprised by Chase’s tactics…. yes, it was sort of “clubbish” like I was picked out of the line to get in by a bouncer. There was a long line for the teller, and the bank employee basically had picked me (of all people) to skip the line for a quick deposit transaction and saving time, and while he was at it a little looksy into my account for him and the home mortgage guy.
Glad you were able to advise your client, hoping playing hardball works out for him, and increases his nutritional intake at the same time.
so, what about the Ritz? I worked there late 80s for John Scher (I was one of their drunken survey girls, lol, surveyed people as they were heading in re: favorite radio shows, newspapers, etc..surprisingly most respondents preferred non-commercial radio – way back then), loved it saw everyone from the Wendy O and the Plasmatics, the Ramone’s, Screaming Blue Messiahs, Michelle Shocked, Midnight Oil, to god knows who.
My first live band in a bar – at 16 in Yonkers I think – the Dead Boys. 30 years ago. I’ll never forget ’em.
#378 Living on bread and water just to make house payments? Your advice was right. You must be pretty stressed out yourself having to deal with this day after day.
Ok, just finished the comments from 2/12 and three days late but whatever:
re: Financial Advisor – NETWORK with family/friends. I got lucky. Brother’s frat buddy worked for Amerprise, then branched out on his own. Was looking for clients. I paid him a very small, one-time fee. At the time (2.5 years ago), i went into it with very little – 0 in 401k and 0 in stock market. (In re: bubble 04/05 i put all my savings into a flip and got lucky.) In this short time span, pumping $500 a month into the market (plus some up front), i have saved like a champ.
Had i gone seeking traditional financial advisors, they would have all turned me down because i brought nothing to the table.
re: Minorities work ethic. This is without a doubt true. Speaking from first-hand experience, my mom’s family have all come to the US in the last 20-25 years and despite not having much beyond a high school education, nearly all have worked their butt off, saved everything, and have done incredibly well for themselves. They work two jobs, perhaps 6-7 days a week. They travel very little, never buy new cars, rarely go out to eat, and are frugal as hell. Helps that they are handy (finishing basements by themselves, etc).
One of my mom’s brothers moved to Florida (where i flipped) and within a five years span, he owned 4 rental places (managed all by himself) and still kept a job at home depot. $$$ from his mortgage places pay his own mortgage to this day.
OK, Bergabe panics, socgen, drops rates 1.25 in a week. 10 year rates rise .50, crude/$95, gold/above $900 and 30 year rates are at 5 week highs. A new carry is in the works. In what manner is the fed throwing a bone to John Q? Sounds like a Bronx cheer to me.
“U.S. January import prices surge 1.7%, set record for 12-month price hike”
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2008/02/15/afx4660705.html?partner=email
#378 Clot
Thats sad.
Sorry Harvey, but with a story like that it’s very hard to be smart or pleasant.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzOIhLJ1C-Y
Years ago my mother used to say to me, she’d say, “In this world, Elwood, you must be” – she always called me Elwood – “In this world, Elwood, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant.” Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. You may quote me.
clot
this one is for you
http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/future-weapons/games/cannon/cannon.html
Clot (384),
What is he? A bagman?
Sounds as if he may possibly be former Sen. Joe Coniglio.
I heard today that lenders are telling appraisers to only use comps from the last three months. Anyone else hearing the same?
Also looking for info on #2465417
More updates on aboutourtown.com’s real estate page:
Here are some interesting transactions from my neighborhood in Pis cat away. These are all condo/townhouses, all recently (last few weeks?) sold by people who bought in 2005. All were sold at slightly higher nominal prices than what they were purchased for in 05.
189 sunshine
4/15/05 – 259,900
recent – 275,000
17 lackland
1/7/05 – 309,900
recent – 325,000
392 lackland
2/23/05 – 252,500
recent – 280,000
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/americas-free-falling-housing-markets.html
Free-falling? It’s cool to be a bear now. Doesn’t that s*ck? It’s like when REM started getting airplay.
If a for sale listing in NJ includes in its remarks, “offers subject to bank approval” and the house is being sold “as is”- does that imply anything foreclosure related?