From Bloomberg:
Recession in U.S. More Likely in 2008, Economists’ Survey Finds
The proportion of economists who forecast a U.S. recession this year more than doubled in three months, to 45 percent, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.
Of those, a majority expect the downturn to be “relatively muted,” according to the poll of 49 professional forecasters taken Jan. 25 to Feb. 13. Less than 20 percent predicted a downturn in the previous poll completed Nov. 6.
The spillover from the biggest housing slump in a quarter century, turmoil in financial markets and higher energy prices will cause growth to slow to an annual pace of 0.4 percent this quarter and 1 percent in the second quarter, the survey found.
“U.S. economic growth is expected to slow to a crawl in the first half,” Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, the group’s president and chief economist at Ford Motor Co., said in a statement.
The economy will expand 1.8 percent in the year ending in 2008’s fourth quarter, according to the survey. That compares with predictions of 2.6 percent in November.
The survey’s median forecast for fourth-quarter growth compares with 2008 forecasts of 1.7 percent in a Bloomberg News survey taken this month.
…
The housing slump and credit availability were cited by forecasters as hurting growth this year. More than 60 percent of the economists said the housing recession will have a major negative effect on consumer spending.
From the NY Times:
Faulting UBS for Losses in Bad Debt, Bank Is to Sue
HSH Nordbank, a state-controlled German bank, said Sunday that it planned to sue the Swiss bank UBS over a portfolio of complex debt products, which it contends that UBS improperly sold and mismanaged.
HSH Nordbank, based in Hamburg, said it wanted to recover “significant losses” from a $500 million portfolio of collateralized debt obligations linked to the American mortgage market, which the German bank bought from UBS in 2002. HSH said it would file the claim against UBS by the end of February in New York, under whose state laws the original deal was fashioned. A UBS spokesman, Dominik von Arx, declined to comment.
Some investors have started to file legal claims against financial institutions in an effort to recover losses from the subprime mortgage crisis. Massachusetts’s top securities regulator, for example, accused Merrill Lynch this month of defrauding the city of Springfield with investments linked to subprime mortgages.
From the AP:
Corzine readies budget plan replete with cuts
Gov. Jon S. Corzine worked Monday to put the finishing touches on a budget plan that’s expected to seek major cuts in state programs, with property tax rebates, state workers, state parks and welfare grants among many possible cuts.
The governor is set to unveil his budget to the Legislature Tuesday morning. And as part of his plans to restructure the state’s troubled finances, Corzine has promised to freeze spending in the plan for the fiscal year starting July 1.
Corzine said the spending freeze will mean about $2.5 billion in budget cuts to offset rising costs.
Existing home sales due out at 10am eastern this morning.
From Bloomberg:
Home Resales in U.S. Probably Dropped, Further Eroding Growth
Sales of existing homes in the U.S. probably dropped in January to the lowest level in at least nine years, according to a survey of economists, signaling the housing slump is deepening and will weigh on growth in 2008.
The National Association of Realtors will report that purchases fell 1.8 percent to an annual rate of 4.8 million, the fewest since record-keeping began in 1999, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 63 economists.
Mounting foreclosures are adding to a glut of unsold homes that is driving down property values. Would-be homebuyers may be waiting for even lower prices, keeping the housing market depressed for a third year and dragging the economy close to a recession.
“With the backdrop of elevated inventories of unsold homes and continued falling home prices, prospects for the housing market in general seem quite grim,” said Dana Saporta, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in New York.
The Realtors group is scheduled to release the report at 10 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg News survey ranged from 4.65 million to 5 million.
For all of last year, sales of single-family homes declined 13 percent, the most since 1982, the group said Jan. 24. Earlier this month, it forecast sales this year would slip to 5.38 million, from 5.65 million for all of 2007.
From the Record:
Many will use tax rebates to reduce debt
Most Affinity Federal Credit Union members plan to use their stimulus package tax rebate to pay down credit card and other debts, according to a new survey by Basking Ridge-based Affinity, New Jersey’s largest credit union.
Nearly 60 percent of the members said they will pay down debts with the $300 to $1,200 in federal tax rebates they expect to receive in the spring as part of a national economic stimulus plan.
“Clearly, our members are mindful of the need to keep debt under control,” said Donna LoStocco, vice president of member experience.
From the AP:
Top Economists See Signs of Recession
Job growth is faltering, consumer confidence plunging. The fallout from the worst housing slump in a quarter-century grows. Wherever you look, the signs are unmistakable that the economy is in trouble.
Because of all the bad news, more and more economists foresee the country falling into a recession, according to the latest survey by the National Association for Business Economics.
The group said in a report being released Monday that 45 percent of the economists on its forecasting panel expect a recession this year. In September, only one in four economists was pessimistic enough to put the chance of a recession at 35 percent or higher.
The drumbeat of bad news since last fall has caused many analysts to consider a recession more likely now, said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, chief economist at Ford Motor Co. and NABE’s current president.
The survey shows that 55 percent still believe the country will be able to skate by without falling into an actual downturn, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic output, the broadest measure of economic health. All the analysts, however, expect growth to slow considerably this year.
The ultimate sell signal
Resignation of top GAO official directly impacts your portfolio
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ultimate-sell-signal/story.aspx?guid=%7BD566230C%2DF9D9%2D4384%2DB64E%2DE9B480D2B23F%7D&dist=MostReadHome#comments
bear (7)-
That is distressing stuff. I thought he might’ve gotten a little juice out of his tour and the 60 Minutes appearance, but I guess it’s gonna be bread & circuses until everything turns to shit.
I hope this new organization gives his message decent backing and exposure.
“The proportion of economists who forecast a U.S. recession this year more than doubled in three months, to 45 percent”
A little late to the table? The recession is here. When you have 3 straight months of declining LEI, you’re in a recession. Oh, by the way, we have had 4 straight months of declines.
“Qatar’s prime minister, who heads the country’s $60 billion sovereign wealth fund, said he favours investing in European over U.S. lenders because U.S. bank stocks are likely to fall further on subprime-mortgage writedowns.”
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/02/24/2008-02-24T200131Z_01_L24556203_RTRIDST_0_QATAR-EUROPE-BANKS.html
BC (10)-
What makes Euro banks any better than ours? Many of them have gorged on our worthless mortgage paper, and they have their own little housing crisis looming large.
I almost get the feeling that the Qatar statements are more about their belief in Euro strength (or $ weakness) that they are about the financial sector or relative bank quality.
However, I think Qatar will be sorely disappointed if it loads up on Euro banks as a currency play. Sooner or later, the Euro will be exposed as scrip nearly as worthless as our own.
Shoppers warned bigger bills on way
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/405e4028-e31e-11dc-803f-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=a955630e-3603-11dc-ad42-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
food inflation … fun!
The chances are so much greater that the Euro gets dragged into the sewer with the $ than the $ strengthens relative to the Euro.
bath (12)-
Got any good recipes for plasma TV?
When you prep a plasma TV for cooking, is it better to hammer it apart, or saw it?
bath [12],
Beans will be dancing. If there is just a slight hint of dry weather this season, watch out.
Rumors have Goldman now looking to cut between 10-15%. Reviews are to be finished in early March.
JB,
With your MLS access, is their any way you can easily get the total number of listing by New/North jersey town (or preferably total number of listings by zip code). I’m thinking an Excel spreadsheet with 2 columns; 1) zip code (or town name) 2) total active listings.
The reason why I’m asking is that I just got some mapping software. I’d like to create a metric that looks at the total percentage of the homes in a given town that are currently for sale, assuming that a high number of homes for sales is an indicator weakness in the market. I’d then map these data to see if any geographical patters emerge. Does distance to NYC matter? Top tier versus second teir towns etc?
grim Says:
Most Affinity Federal Credit Union members plan to use their stimulus package tax rebate to pay down credit card and other debts
Are they kidding? That $1,000 is going to go into peoples checking account and dissapear at Starbucks, a Hummer lease payment, and the cable bill in 2 seconds flat. It’s a complete mistake for anyone to think that it will make any kind of difference in anyone’s life or the economy.
x [18],
Election year ploy.
Clot 14 I like my plasma piccata you need the capers as they are bland.
Saw into small pieces 4 by 5.
Cover in glue (elmers is fine)
Roll in flour.
Saute on med heat till platic is just melting.
SAUCE melt butter in pan
1 stick add juice of 4 lemones
then raise heat add white wine & capers
salt & pepper to taste (lite on the salt capers will take care of that)
pour over plasma cutlets
Yield depends on size of tv.
Serve with a side of worthless dollars (greens)quick saute in garlic & oil(that will cost you).
BON APPETITE!
renting,
may i ask what software you are using?
So any frugality we might be seeing are apparently going to be short-lived according to Newsweek…
“The cultural anti-retail moment will likely pass. Thoreau lasted only 26 months in his cabin by Walden Pond. The elevation of frugality into a virtue seems to last about as long as modern recessions do—about eight months.”
http://www.newsweek.com/id/112762/output/print
renting,
I did something like this using Google Maps a few weeks ago, and the recent sales from buyinginbergen.com. If you are comfortable hacking on Perl scripts and installing modules from CPAN, get my email address from JB and you’re welcome to it :)
clott, mike
one of the first impacts of the flattening energy supply is the jump in food prices. our current food production methods are energy intensive and when you add a flattening energy supply on top of the competition for rood as energy (biofuels) prices are only going one way….
may i ask what software you are using?
Microsoft Mappoint
My Indiana comment:
Simon Property Group, the country’s largest real estate company by value, is based in Indianpolis.
The company has grown mostly through acquisitions which they routinely integrated in Indianapolis.
In 2004, Simon bought a New Jersey-based company, Chelsea Property Group, for $5 billion. Simon allowed the company to remain in New Jersey because Simon knew the New Jersey people would quit when asked to move to Indianapolis. Simon acknowledged that the New Jersey talent couldn’t be replaced.
“U.S. bank stocks are likely to fall further on subprime-mortgage writedowns.”
But that CAN’T be true! bi said there’d be no more writedowns!
x-underwriter
I would to have the chance to even spend it on the cable bill or my hummer :) (I don’t have one, just kidding)
Those rebate income limits are a freaking joke and are way too low. Don’t get me started on how unfair they are.
keep on eye on food supplies
Christopher Donville, Bloomberg
Grain farmers will need to harvest record crops every year to meet increasing global food demand and avoid famine, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. Chief Executive Officer William Doyle said.
People and livestock are consuming more grain than ever, draining world inventories and increasing the likelihood of shortages, Doyle said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. Global grain stockpiles fell to about 53 days of supply last year, the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1960, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
“If you had any major upset where you didn’t have a crop in a major growing agricultural region this year, I believe you’d see famine,” Doyle, 57, said in New York.
Potash, the world’s largest maker of crop nutrients, has more than doubled in market value in the past year as record crop prices allowed farmers to spend more on fertilizer to boost yields
…“The agriculture fertilizer sector offers tremendous fundamentals that will prove unique in an otherwise challenging and eroding macroeconomic environment,” Robert Koort, a New York-based analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in a Feb. 13 report.
BC Bob Says:
Election year ploy.
Exactly…use the taxpayer’s $$$$ to make yourselves look good.
Mike NJ,
That’s another thing that sucks about living here. Yes you make more but it all goes out the window. Any tax breaks, or whatever, don’t happen to us because we’re “rich”. We’re exempt from the refund too but that income barely buys us a house that some schlep out in Ohio working at Pizza Hut would be embarrassed to live in.
Clotpoll Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 8:08 am
BC (10)-
What makes Euro banks any better than ours?
They operate in countries with sound economy and a healthy consumer with actual savings accounts.
Clotpoll Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 8:08 am
BC (10)-
What makes Euro banks any better than ours?
They operate in countries with sound economy and a healthy consumer with actual savings accounts. Not to mention deal in a better currency.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23331438
In the good old pays this guy would be arrested for treason.
x-underwriter
Tell me about it. My sister-in-law lives out in Indiana and their house is over twice as big (brand new), two nice cars, they go on cruises all the time (they do live within their means with no debt) and yet here we are living in NJ in a small house, taxed to the hilt, one average car and we do not qualify for squat. Really, really frustrating to say the least. Maybe Mitchell out in NC has a point (perish the thought)
make,
it is awfully interesting how greenspan can shout the the details of the real economic situation from the roof tops the second he steps down but does nothing but exacerbate the problem while at his previous post.
Stock Market just opened, yippie yi ya.
Anyhow big article about chain of stores that sell recently expired food, business is way up and chain is rapidly expanding due to big business among recently laid off workers. I guess all they sell in the cheese department is blue cheese and the bread aisle is all crutons.
BC Bob – Goldman cuts
I have a feeling these are just the first round of layoffs for the financial industry. Fasten your seatbelts!
Corzine’s cuts
eliminating the agriculture, commerce and personnel departments
These cuts are probably the least politically sensitive areas. How about some REAL cuts!
We’re exempt from the refund too but that income barely buys us a house that some schlep out in Ohio working at Pizza Hut would be embarrassed to live in.
This is no joke. My friend’s cousin is a manager (not owner) at a Pizza Hut in South Carolina. He lives in a house that most of us here could never have in NJ.
Anybody game for starting a taxpayer revolt?
Maybe some sort of grassroots tax movement to show the honest working persons thoughts on the budget and taxes of this state?
I’m not sure if I’m venting or being serious, but the overtaxed citizens need representation too.
Mike-
But they live in Indiana. It sucks.
I grew up in Cleveland, lived in Columbus, OH and Indianapolis for a few years each, and moved to NJ seven years ago.
Cleveland is a bit different in that it is an old industrial town. It has more of a Northeast feel to it. Like a small version of Chicago, it has some culture.
Columbus and Indy are just flat out big hick towns. Applebee’s passes for culture in Indy. Indiana is also one of the most rascist places I have ever seen.
And all talk of Big Ten sports starts and ends at The Ohio State University.
Hard Place # 40
Just tell me when and where.
hughesrep
You are talking mostly southern Indiana/Indy. I went to school in northern Indiana and it is much, much better up there. My in laws all live 45 minutes from Chicago in northwest Indiana. Yes, I realize it is vastly different culturally then here and that is why I choose to live here (paired with proximity to family). Let’s be honest, culture only goes so far though when your mortgage payment is due and the kids need to eat.
41: “Cleveland is a bit different in that it is an old industrial town. It has more of a Northeast feel to it. Like a small version of Chicago, it has some culture”
That’s how I feel about Milwaukee WI. We’re moving there this week.
Taxes are up there with NJ, but housing prices much more reasonable of course. They didn’t soar as much as the NE, and so far they’ve been holding pretty steady since they don’t have as far to fall. BUT the city reassessed in 2006 at what appears to be ABOVE market values, so 2.7% for downtown Milwaukee can be gasp-inducing…
We’ve secured a great 2 BR, 2 floor apartment (14 floor ‘tower’ built in the ’20s with tons of character) with views of Lake Michigan, walking distance to big parks and lots of good bars and restaurants for $1300/month. Has a lease escape clause if we happen to find a deal on one of the MANY un-sold condos or restoable victorians downtown.
10: LEI ?
20: ewwwwww
in a torturous meeting _ help…..
sl
RentininNJ Says:
This is no joke. My friend’s cousin is a manager (not owner) at a Pizza Hut in South Carolina. He lives in a house that most of us here could never have in NJ.
This is what you get in the town that my inlaws live in for $333k
MLS ID# 151115
Assuming 20% down with $4000 in taxes that would be about $2,000/mo. If you had no other debts, you could easily qualify for this with about $70,000 in income. So you and your wife make that managing CVS or whatever.
Not that I would want to live there but it puts things into perspective. The people who live in that house will be getting a tax refund, not us though.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=79027&mnp=27&bd=5&typ=1&sid=1c48e21e606b49e6b6963642e4f4ec3f&lid=1085489025&lsn=4&srcnt=189#Detail
# 14 “Got any good recipes for plasma TV?”
I find that just about anything is improved with shallots, sun-dried tomatoes, garlic, and white wine.
# 30 “We’re exempt from the refund too but that income barely buys us a house that some schlep out in Ohio working at Pizza Hut would be embarrassed to live in.”
There comes a time when folks need to conduct a full analysis of what their income brings them in the way of lifestyle. I don’t know about anyone else but my wife and I work to live, not live to work. We want to have a certain lifestyle and security, and we have been lucky enough to achieve it.
If a person/couple thinks they could not leave the NY metro area because of the culture, and wealth of things available in the way of entertainment, etc, they need to seriously assess how much they take advantage of the available culture. Do they regularly go to the museums in NYC? Do they get to Lincoln Center or Broadway shgows each month? Do they explore different restaurants every week?
For so many people living in the tri-state area, the culture and attractions within NYC are more concepts than they are reality. It becomes such a pain in the @$$ to fight to get to work, work all day, fight to get home, fight to get into the City, etc to make it an intragrel part of one’s life. Does anyone seriously believe that the strip-mall, roads that feel more like parking lots, over-taxed “culture” of most NJ towns is so compelling as to make living there such a superior choice to living other places?
There are pleanty of people from other parts of the country who actually take greater advantage of everything NYC has to offer than those of us who live and grew up in the area. They fly in, take in several shows over a weekend, dine out, really suck the marrow out of the city, then go home to easy commutes, bigger and less-costly housing and energy expenses.
One may not be able to earn the same income someplace else, but one can achieve a better standard of living and overall higher degree of culture and entertainment living away from the City than living in most places in NJ, which have “easy access” to the city. Just imagine cutting taxes by $10k and using that for a series of kick-@ss weekends in NYC, London, etc.
I love NJ and NYC but it is not the be all and end all, and it is not worth struggling to live there just because the “culture” of the area is “superior” to other areas. Just think of the number of towns in NJ that folks on this board regularly trash as unlivable, undesirable, too hard to commute, yadda, yadda. Clearly, this is not lifestyle central.
Anyway, back to our regular programming.
Shore guy,
i totally hear what you are saying…the problem is the ‘roots’ me and my wife have over here…
both our parents and a lot of our close relatives live within a stone’s throw (actaully more like close driving distance) of where we live….its tough to move in a situation like that…our parents need help as they are getting older and we need to be around this area…
the only problem is that they bought homes back 30 years ago and live a simple life – although the taxes are getting to them!
CAIBC
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell to 4.89 Million Rate in January
By Courtney Schlisserman
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell last month to the lowest in at least nine years, signaling the housing slump is deepening and will weigh on growth in 2008.
Resales declined 0.4 percent, less than forecast, to an annual rate of 4.89 million from a revised 4.91 million in December that was higher than previously reported, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The group began record-keeping for this measure in 1999.
Mounting foreclosures are adding to a glut of unsold homes that is driving down property values. Would-be homebuyers may be waiting for even lower prices, keeping the housing market depressed for a third year and dragging the economy close to a recession.
Housing is “a long-term negative that’s going to continue,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report. “The trends are still weak. Prices haven’t come down enough.”
Economists had forecast home resales would fall 1.8 percent to an annual rate of 4.8 million, according to the median of 63 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 4.65 million to 5 million.
The number of homes for sale at the end of January rose 5.5 percent to 4.2 million. At the reported sales pace, that represents 10.3 months’ supply, compared with 9.7 months in December.
`Soft, But Stable’
“The past five months’ sales activity has been very soft, but stable,” said Lawrence Yun, the real-estate agents group’s chief economist. A fiscal stimulus that included tax cuts and relaxed restrictions on so-called jumbo mortgage loans may lead to better sales late this year, he said.
Elevated inventories are driving down prices and causing some potential buyers to stay on the sideline to see if prices will go down further.
The median sales price fell 4.6 percent to $201,100 from January 2007. The median cost of a single-family home decreased 5.1 percent to $198,700, while that of condominiums and co-ops fell 1 percent to $220,400.
Resales fell in three of four regions, led by a 3.6 percent drop in the Northeast. They declined 2.1 percent in the West and 0.5 percent in the South. Sales were 3.4 percent higher in the Midwest.
Single-Family Sales
Sales of single-family homes increased 0.5 percent to a 4.34 million pace from a 10-year low in December, according to today’s report. Sales of condos and co-ops fell 6.5 percent to an annual rate of 550,000.
Housing “is going to be subdued” until inventories are reduced, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Gary Stern told reporters Feb. 19 after a speech in Golden Valley, Minnesota.
The effects of the worst housing recession in 25 years have spread into other areas of the economy. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell this month to minus 24, the weakest reading in seven years.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News earlier this month put the chance of the U.S. entering a recession at 50-50, up from 40 percent odds a month earlier. The Federal Reserve last week said it lowered its growth forecast and now expects the economy to expand 1.3 percent to 2 percent in the fourth quarter from the same period of 2007, compared with the 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent it projected in October.
New-Home Sales
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release the January report on new home sales on Feb. 27. While economists expect that figure to decline, some measures indicate demand for new home sales may be near the bottom.
For example, confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose for a second straight month in February and companies said there were more prospective buyers touring properties, the National Association of Homebuilders said on Feb. 19. In addition, the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment showed a record number of Americans said lower home prices made home buying conditions favorable.
“We’re seeing prices now that are basically back to ’02, ’03 levels,” Ara Hovnanian, Chief Executive Officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Feb. 21. “That begins to get compelling for customers.”
Even so, the housing market “continues to be in a very difficult position right now,” and weaker sales are cutting into builders’ profits, Hovnanian said.
Lowe’s Cos., the world’s second-largest home-improvement retailer, forecast full-year earnings less than analysts’ projections after reporting a drop in sales and profits in the fourth quarter.
Shore Guy,
100% agreement. So many people here living in jersey with children get into NYC maybe once a year. For that option, you pay dearly. Most people’s lives have no perceptible advantage from those living elsewhere.
# 48 “both our parents and a lot of our close relatives live within a stone’s throw (actaully more like close driving distance) of where we live”
For many people, that is a good reason to relocate. :-)
“The past five months’ sales activity has been very soft, but stable,” said Lawrence Yun, the real-estate agents group’s chief economist. A fiscal stimulus that included tax cuts and relaxed restrictions on so-called jumbo mortgage loans may lead to better sales late this year, he said.
No it won’t, @sshole.
I thought i read that over 90% of people that live in NJ work in NJ. To me that’s quite a bit to pay for this “proximity to NYC” crap they drive down our throats.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23334948
Do I hear $199,000 anyone — $ 198,000?
“The inventory of homes for sale rose 5.5 percent to 4.19 million units at the end of January, which represents about 10.3 months’ supply at the current sales pace. The national median home price fell 4.6 percent from a year ago to $201,100.”
#49 “We’re seeing prices now that are basically back to ‘02, ‘03 levels,” Ara Hovnanian, Chief Executive Officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Feb. 21. “That begins to get compelling for customers.”
What??? ’02, ’03 levels are 100 percent LOWER than what I’m seeing now!
another boost for gold prices?
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Gold Fields Ltd., Africa’s second- biggest gold producer, will eliminate as many as 6,900 jobs, or 13 percent of its South African workforce, as the state-run utility fails to provide enough power for the company’s mines.
The cuts are the first by a South African mining company since utility Eskom Holdings Ltd. said power shortages will last for four years. Gold Fields will close part of its operations at Driefontein, Africa’s largest gold mine, and redesign its South Deep mine, the company said today.
# 52 “may lead to better sales”
And Larry may sleep with both Angelena Jolie and Sela Ward today during lunch, but it is not likely.
This is more like, every lottery ticket “may” be a winner. Nevertheless, it is interesting how NAR went from “all is well” to yes it is bad but it will be better tomorrow” (I guess they are now in the Gone With the Wind phase, everything will be better tomorrow. Well. that or Annie “Tomorrow, tomorrow, there is always tomorrow, as long as they dont foreclose.”).
Hovnanian is a liar. The prices are not at 2002/2003 levels. If they were, people would actually afford to buy a house and sleep at night without loading up on Zanax and Ambien.
Can something be “relatively muted?”
Prices are too high.
Prices are too high.
Prices are too high.
Prices are too high.
Prices are too high.
Prices are too high.
Prices are too high.
Prices are too high.
Prices are too high.
Prices are too high.
Gary: I think prices are back to 2003 in areas where Builders are or have build lot of homes. Definitely not in NJ where I see practically no new housing communities being built. In fact, I just saw this week 2 new houses increasing there list prices!!!
The eleventh-hour upgrade
Worried sellers splurge on redos but many won’t recover costs; some advise focusing on the “icky” item.
the attorney wants to relocate her law practice to Seattle and sell her place, which she bought in the Hamilton Heights neighborhood of northern Manhattan in 1979 for $70,000.
The modernistic redo doesn’t quite match her own taste. But it did mimic the décor in newspaper real estate sections. Lee says she hopes it will cement a quick sale when she puts her house on the market at “something north” of $2 million. “If I didn’t do this, I wouldn’t get my best price,” she says.
Whoa – $70k now selling for $2 million??
Shore Guy #47: It’s more than just a question of culture, there’s a question of worldview. I know that some people on this board are right-wing conservatives, and they can probably live anywhere. But if you are nonwhite, or gay, or of foreign birth, or are a registered Democrat, or if your spiritual leanings do not involve belief in the divinity of Y’shua of Nazareth, or any combination of the above, it does put a limit on where you can live without going insane (and in some places, having your life in danger).
There’s no point having a bigass house if people in your town are going to throw rocks at your windows because of whom you love, how you choose to worship, for whom you vote, or the color of your skin.
Hi, can someone give me some details about this MLS ID# 813266? I’m looking to get some history on this. Thanks a bunch.
From the earlier WSJ article,
Some sellers aren’t worried about recouping what they’ve spent. Carl Frederick, a landscape-lighting company executive, spent $23,000 preparing to sell his four-bedroom home in Boston Heights, Ohio. It was only nine years old, but Frederick replaced laminated countertops with granite, installed new sinks with brushed-nickel faucets, replaced light fixtures and put the house on the market in April for $879,000.
Several contracts fell through before it finally sold for $775,000. Frederick paid $700,000 for the house five years ago — leaving him with little profit after the agent’s fees and closing costs. But he has no regrets. “At the end of the day, I sold the house,” he says.
So prices in Boston Heights, Ohio are back to 2002 level. I think at present in NJ we are about back to 2004 level, in selective deals. My personal belief is high property taxed prevented huge run up in NJ compared to areas like CA or FL, while lack of new supply prevent huge drop in prices like OH or IN. Unless there is distressed situation, it would be tough to get bargains in NJ.
make (31)-
Like England? Or Spain?
C’mon, man, give us a break. Please don’t tell me the “rent to let” phenomenon and other Euro housing garbage isn’t significant…in fact, it’s probably a bigger bust than what we’re experiencing right now.
And, even if you assume such a “responsible” Euro citizen- with savings in the bank- how does that even matter when those banks reached for US CDO/SIV debt with the same vigor as banks on our side of the pond?
The only difference between Europe and the US is that their economies are stagnant and non-inflated; ours is stagnant and hyper-inflated.
We will, however, succeed in dragging them into the muck. Heck, they’re even ahead of us in a weird way: we haven’t had a good, old-fashioned bank run- a la Norther Rock- yet.
47 Shore guy
I agree, the amount that most people in NJ go to the city is not worth it. We live here because of family and work. I would live in Southern CA if not for that.
Jill
Great point, although there are enclaves of sanity all over the country, you just have to find them, although they probably aren’t cheap either. “Blue” places are usually more expensive than “red.”
Shore (47)-
True dat:
“There are pleanty of people from other parts of the country who actually take greater advantage of everything NYC has to offer than those of us who live and grew up in the area. They fly in, take in several shows over a weekend, dine out, really suck the marrow out of the city, then go home to easy commutes, bigger and less-costly housing and energy expenses.”
SG,
“I think at present in NJ we are about back to 2004 level, in selective deals.”
Exlcluding the selective deals, where do you think New Jersey home prices are?
For the record, I think they’re very similar to 2005, 2006, and 2007 – probably within 2% or 3%.
regarding euro banks
Is it not possible that the “responsible” europeans will be hurt worse by extensive bank troubles. Us fat lazy americans dont have too much in the bank to worry about. But europeans may have more to worry about then they thing when their big fat saving accounts suddenly cease to exist due to our fine american financial products, on to of their own housing issues.
Shore Guy #47 excellent post.
I wanted to pull out the most salient parts but decided that really, it was all good.
I’m starting to look into other areas.
A good friend of mine who has the sharpest financial mind I’ve ever seen (sorry Pret) analyzed NC vs. NJ with his wife. He figured out that it’s far less expensive to live in NC and fly up 2x a year, stay in four star hotels, see Broadway shows, and dine in top restaurants than live in NJ and go in to NYC 2x a year which is what most people do. She wanted NJ, so that’s what they’re doing.
Jmacdaddio,
Clearly living in NC is less expensive than NJ.
Do you know what your friend assumed for income level and income growth potential?
I was under the impression that it is common for an agreed price of a house to lowered post-inspection. Is this not true?
The reason I ask is because I have a couple of friends who have been looking to buy in the Boston area recently. They’ve had two bids accepted and in both cases, problems were revealed during inspections. But in both cases, the sellers refused to negotiate the price at all. In the second house, the owners had already purchased a new home and were carrying two mortgages.
My friends were pretty shocked that these people would rather seen a deal fall through than negotiate. They are contemplating renting now because they’re coming to the conclusion that sellers really haven’t come to terms with the current market.
skep-tic
It’s a rare house that won’t have any repairs to make after an inspection. The way I understand it, after the inspection, the way most contracts are written, the seller can refuse to repair or give credit for the repairs, but the buyer can walk away at that point too.
We just bought and had inspection items come up and the sellers didn’t want to give us anything (word was they had other buyers for more money and wanted to dump us, which I believe), but then they came around after the lawyers chatted and gave us half the money for the repairs.
here is an important difference between the two Democrats running for president (from today’s WSJ):
“Sen. Clinton laid out her plans for a 90-day moratorium on home foreclosures, a five-year interest-rate freeze on adjustable-rate mortgages and a $30 billion fund that would go directly to counties affected by the mortgage crisis. ‘That’s a big difference between me and my opponent, who doesn’t agree with me,’ Sen. Clinton said, adding, ‘But lo and behold, last week even the Bush Administration said maybe she’s onto something; maybe we should have a moratorium.’
“Sen. Obama doesn’t speak nearly as much about housing as he does about free trade, but he did recently say that Sen. Clinton’s plan to freeze interest rates would ‘reward folks who made this problem worse’ and ‘drive rates through the roof on people who are trying to get new mortgages or refinance a home.'”
69
I don’t believe from what I see that are prices are at 2005, 2006, 2007 prices anymore. Listing prices are still at peak plus ten percent but that’s a whole other story.
Everything I have been following, that closed, is at 2004 prices, maybe a percentage or two more.
Don’t get me started. I don’t know the last time you’ve been to Indianapolis, but it is not a hick town. I don’t know where the hell you got that from.
Also, I put Ohio state in the same league as Purdue.
hughesrep Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Mike-
But they live in Indiana. It sucks.
I grew up in Cleveland, lived in Columbus, OH and Indianapolis for a few years each, and moved to NJ seven years ago.
Cleveland is a bit different in that it is an old industrial town. It has more of a Northeast feel to it. Like a small version of Chicago, it has some culture.
Columbus and Indy are just flat out big hick towns. Applebee’s passes for culture in Indy. Indiana is also one of the most rascist places I have ever seen.
And all talk of Big Ten sports starts and ends at The Ohio State University.
will, however, succeed in dragging them into the muck. Heck, they’re even ahead of us in a weird way: we haven’t had a good, old-fashioned bank run- a la Norther Rock- yet.
Clot,
We don’t have anything is the savings to run and withdraw. Did you see Country Fried rush over the summer.
Here’s a stat for you, over 70% of the Walmart shoppers don’t have a savings account.
Ann,
Are you analyzing things from a statewide viewpoint, or simply observing transactions in a single surburban submarket?
I agree that prices have fallen a lot in some submarkets.
Pre (69/80),
“For the record, I think they’re very similar to 2005, 2006, and 2007 – probably within 2% or 3%.”
“Are you analyzing things from a statewide viewpoint, or simply observing transactions in a single surburban submarket?
Are you saying overall that state wide prices are off by 2% or 3%?
If so, which markets are you seeing as floating the rest of NJ and how much higher above the 2% or 3% in order to do so?
Damn, I hate Mondays.
Once again, are you saying overall that state wide prices are within 2% or 3% of 2005, 2006 & 2007?
If so, which markets are you seeing as floating the rest of NJ and how much higher above the 2005, 2006 & 2007 prices in order to do so?
re post 46:
x-underwriter,
I think I know why you are an x-underwriter. If you believe a $70K income comfortably supports a $333K house ($250K mortgage) you are nuts, even if taxes are $2K.
Absolute max for a sane mortgage payment on a $70K income is $210K, and that’s only with a great interest rate (-6%) for a person who is relatively young and healthy.
A reasonable person would be wise not to carry a mortgage of more than $150K.
“Are you saying overall that state wide prices are off by 2% or 3%?”
Yes, maybe not even that much.
“If so, which markets are you seeing as floating the rest of NJ and how much higher above the 2% or 3% in order to do so?”
Prices in Hudson County and South Jersey are doing better. I’d estimate that home prices in these areas outperformed home prices North Jersey suburbs and exurbs by 10% during the past year.
What do you think?
pret (80)-
“I agree that prices have fallen a lot in some submarkets.”
Just not yours, right? Not now…not ever?
Keep whistling past the graveyard. Your area is next to get poleaxed.
Clotpoll,
Why aren’t prices falling in my neighborhood?
” A hurricane comes through your town and levels your house. A few weeks later, you receive a letter from your insurance company telling you that unless you buy some of its stock, it won’t be able to pay your insurance claim. What do you do?”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/SKF-MBI-abk/index/a/16031
“Your area is next to get poleaxed.”
People have been saying that since 2002. Instead of reacting to reality and adjusting their expectations, these pessimists keep pushing out the date of their crash foreast.
pret (86)-
Because the rot is working its way in to the core. Just like it has in every other RE downturn since WWII.
This thing is really going to hit you like a ton of bricks, isn’t it?
Why don’t you go to one of the veterans in your company and ask what it was like during the last 2 downturns? Ask how great Manhattan and close-in NJ real estate was in 1979, or 1989.
Pre (84),
I can’t speak for Hudson County or Jersey Shore region as I don’t actually pay attention to those markets.
I’d say (IMHO) Bergen County is lower by 12% from peak prices early 2006. And the trend is still down.
pret (88)-
“People have been saying that since 2002.”
That’s good; default to straw man argument. I certainly wasn’t saying this in 2002, and since the boom years were incipient at that point, I doubt even the most grizzled bears here were saying that, either.
Do you really think it’s different this time?
Oh, I forgot…you have no actual experience with which to compare “this time”.
Pre (88),
You really don’t believe it’ll happen?
I guess you’re younger than I imagine because I guess you don’t recall the late 80’s – mid 90’s?
It’ll happen, has before and will again.
When?
Who really knows but I’d hazard to guess by years and.
Clotpoll,
“Because the rot is working its way in to the core.”
This is an interesting concept. Can you provide evidence of previous downturns in which priced declines happened earlier in the outer areas and later in the high-cost center?
Do you think same thing will happen in other major metros? In other words, will Stockton, Cal., crash spread to San Francisco, and Inland Empire crash spread to West LA.?
Rich,
When I step back and look at the data, the last “crash” in New Jersey was really a long period of stagnant prices, not a true bust.
Yes, there were some big declines, especially in suburban condos. But there wasn’t a statewide crash.
Existing home sales in January fell by a softer-than-expected -0.4% to 4.890 million following an upwardly revised December sales number of 4.91 million (DE: -1.2% to 4.800 million; Consensus: –
1.8%). On a year-over-year basis, existing home sales were down -23.4%, and by -32.2% from the September 2005 peak.
For the first time since February 2007, single family home sales increased slightly by 0.5%, suggesting that falling home prices may be enticing otherwise reluctant buyers into the market. The question is
whether today’s sales numbers represent a true reverse-course for home buyers, or whether rising mortgage rates and tightening lending standards will work against these gains going forward.
In any event, a bottoming-out in the market for existing homes does not appear to be the case. The inventory of unsold homes rose 5.5% this month, pushing up the months supply to 10.3 months, just shy of the October peak of 10.5 and reversing most of the gains made in recent months. The inventory overhang weighed on prices, driving the median prices of single-family homes down -3.07% to $198,700. This relatively sharp decline in prices is ultimately a negative for household balance sheets.
RE: Just imagine cutting taxes by $10k and using that for a series of kick-@ss weekends in NYC, London, etc.
One trip to London would be around 10K!! Anyhow the pay cut would be gigantic for us in the financial services industry would be at least 10x the 10K tax savings you cite.
I honestly do not see what there is to be optomistic about with respect to NYC-area real estate except that major price declines haven’t yet shown up in the data. Inventory is high and transactions are low. Financing is much tougher to come by. Employment is slipping and getting worse. What is the bullish argument here?
The national median home price fell to $201,100 from $210,900 a year earlier, the NAR said. The price of the median single-family home was $198,700 in January, the lowest since $197,700 reported in January 2005.
Pre (98, paragraph one)
Home Prices Do Fall
For those thinking about moving to NC, please read…
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime
JM
Rich,
I’m not saying that “home prices never go down.”
I agree that home price bubbles have existed in the past and that plenty are currently bursting.
But I don’t see a statewide crash happening, which seems to be a contrarian outlook compared to most posters here.
Pre (94),
Really? It was a crash to me. I was able to purchase a home in ’91 that I could not purchase the year before let alone even think about looking at prior to ’90.
I think a lot gets lost in the data.
I look at housing the same as I look at turn-of-the-century antiques. By having a strong interest and continually looking and browsing (basically educating myself) I know what the actual and current value* is and when that value has risen too high or when the value has dropped.
*This includes “improvements” which can increase and decrease an antique as well as a home.
# 63
Jill,
In just about every state there are numerous places where one can find broadminded people, high culture, and tolerance. In fact, some of the least tolerant, hateful people I have ever met hail from the Garden State. I know a gay couple who LOVED living in Kentucky — they found it surprisingly tolerant and urbane. Now they were in one of the larger towns but they were not likely in any more danger in the countryside there than they would be in western Monmouth County, Sussex county, Cumberland County, Bradley Beach, etc.
#30 BC Bob Said: Yes you make more but it all goes out the window.
I cant stress enough how I felt every time I got $100.00 more in my pocket that week that someone or something in NJ found a way to take $200.00 more out of me that week. It just never ended even when I donated a vehicle the gov pulled a $500.00 max tax rebate instead of bluebook just after. I could have easily sold it for 4-5 grand and gave the cash as a donation.
A lot of people I know thought it was nuts that I would walk away from NJ making as much as I did to take less to live in the south but after running the TRUE numbers. Not the ego inflated income but the true take home income. I now take home more cash than when I lived in NJ. Real positive cash flow and no one saying you made and extra $100.00 this week and somehow your water bill is extra $150 this month.
I still hear of people back up north well I make 85K-175K and I would be making 15-20% less if I moved. I cant afford to make less. So many people focus on the wrong numbers that they don’t realize sometimes making less is more especially when you move to an area that costs significantly less.
Things that made me leave NJ.
1. Ever increasing Taxes. Pile it on guys. No not small increases jack me up fellas.
2. Same Jobs started paying less every year in NJ and NY. I have to blame recruiting agencies for skimming too much but companies are paying less also and both are getting away with it year over year. High 6 figure jobs are going sub six figures and with extremely poor medical coverage.
3. Decreasing number of jobs in NJ. years ago my phone would ring off the hook 2-3 times a day with job offers even if I had a job that wouldn’t stop them and now I hear of buddies going months without a lead and they are top end. Only to get more calls from GA and NC when I was living in NJ than from NJ companies.
4. Insurance – No explanation here if it isn’t car insurance its homeowners or health.
5. Commute – No explanation needed.
6. Poor work environments – Land of the dead full of overworked and dare you make a joke in the office or show signs of life that means you dont have enough work to do.
7. Cut throat co-workers. Get ahead but stabbing people in the back when they aren’t around is the new management advancement. Which is funny because I heard my favorite manager got canned after buying a big new home in 2005.
8. Road Rage – Cut someone off in NJ and they follow you home. Of course I am nearly a 300lb body builder so this wasn’t a problem for me but they usually don’t look before giving the finger then realizing maybe that was a mistake. Still to see and have this happen daily in NJ is just poor.
9. Poor attitudes – You see it everywhere. The state is a downer. Try getting to the shore to have a nice weekend only to be annoyed by 50 things along the way.
10. Bad Managers. Boy I had some careless managers who didn’t know how to manage people in NJ. I often tell the story how I was approved for time off only to be told at the last minute I couldn’t go to see my wife’s grandmother who was on her death bed and died shortly after our trip. We had a staff of 23 other techs who could have backfilled me during the time out. I wasn’t even looking for a week I wanted a few days off near the weekend. These kind of things weren’t just one manager in paticular but several managers I had working in NJ. WORK > YOUR LIFE.
For the record we aren’t seeing many NJ homeowners moving to NC lately but we do have a big influx of former NJ renters relocating here now. We still have a lot of NC homes sold in my development that the owners cant sell back north to get here so they are being rented out. Funny enough to mostly former NJ people. Something happening with the Police in NJ for some reason a lot of former NJ police are moving into the area.
“Shore Guy #47: It’s more than just a question of culture, there’s a question of worldview. I know that some people on this board are right-wing conservatives, and they can probably live anywhere. But if you are nonwhite, or gay, or of foreign birth, or are a registered Democrat, or if your spiritual leanings do not involve belief in the divinity of Y’shua of Nazareth, or any combination of the above, it does put a limit on where you can live without going insane (and in some places, having your life in danger).”
I moved to Albuquerque 4 years ago and haven’t heard once about a gay being beat to death or a single person utter the n-word.
People here are are very much about live-and -let-live out here and don’t seem nearly as much consumed with race as they were in NJ.
I call BS on the OP.
Ed Sanders Says:
(83) I think I know why you are an x-underwriter.
One of the reasons I’m out is that mortgage companies stopped asking people their income figures entirely, and I predicted this whole mess to myself a long time ago when I was an underwriter. I left in 2005 whe I realized it would all hit the fan and if I wasn’t doing something else I would be out on the street…a prediction that proved very true.
I think you’re missing my point. That house would easily be $800,000 here in NJ plus $15,000 or more in taxes. How much would you need to make to pay for that? You certainly wouldn’t be getting Uncle Sam’s tax break this year. I just used a 36% debt/income ratio on that which, believe me, is much lower than the majority of homeowners in this state.
# 96
Agreed that there are SOME people for whom the move makes no sense; however, there are 100’s of 1,000s of families, maybe more, for whom the move makes all the sense in the world.
For each of our last 3 family vacations the airfare alone was $10k. That said, many people who fly coach can fly a family of 4 clear across the country, stay at a decent to very decent hotel in NY, eat at places as nice as Aquavit, get tickets to 3-4 Broadway shows over ht ecourse of a weekend, and have a very nice vacation at least twice a year for that amount.
Most people living in NJ do not get that much quality time in the City in any given year.
I’m sorry, but I just can’t eat at the Cracker Barrel or Applebee’s in anticipation of my next trip to New York in 3 months.
I thought the last crash was a fast crash, but I don’t know the timing as I was in high school.
I know we bought a townhouse in 2001 for the same price that it originally sold for in 1987, and its lowest sale price was about 30% of the ’87 price.
109
sorry, that should be 30% off the ’87 price.
At least the colleges in NJ are spending money wisely.
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080225/NEWS/80225024
TRENTON — A top state investigator says wasteful spending is rampant at New Jersey’s public colleges and universities.
Cary Edwards, chairman of the State Commission of Investigation, tells an Assembly committee today that an inquiry showed lax financial oversight and paltry accounting standards at state colleges.
He says no one quite understands what’s going on at those institutions, hurting taxpayers and tuition-paying students and parents.
Edwards is a former attorney genera. He recommends the state strengthens oversight and sets standards for spending money at its 31 public colleges.
For people who believe I’m ignoring past real estate cycles, here is an example I won’t forget.
It highlights the volatility of suburban condo prices.
http://tinyurl.com/2z4mm3
may have already been posted.
More wirte downs!!!!!! where’s Bi?
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Analysts at Goldman Sachs cut estimates for the nation’s top banks and brokers Monday and said these major institutions would likely report write-downs of between $1 billion and $12 billion for soured real-estate loans and related exposures.
Goldman’s estimates of new write-downs ranged from $1.4 billion it expects for Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC%) all the way up to a whopping $12 billion projected for Citigroup Inc
but wait theres more!
From the WSJ
http://tinyurl.com/2sde3b
One of the biggest worries is Goldman’s large exposure to leveraged loans, which totaled $42 billion at the end of the firm’s last quarter, according to analyst calculations. During the deal boom, Goldman was a huge player in financing private-equity buyouts. But investors started to avoid buyout loans last summer, causing the debt to pile up on balance sheets and their market values to drop.
The result: Goldman is in the sort of sticky situation it largely avoided with subprime mortgages. The firm’s leveraged-loan exposure is equivalent to 1.1 times its net worth, versus an average of 0.7 times for U.S. brokerage firms, according to Credit Suisse analyst Susan Roth Katzke. Write-downs on leveraged loans could total as much as $1.7 billion in the current quarter, Mr. Trone estimates.
regarding corzines spending cuts;
IS he still calling a spending increase freeze a cut? i am not up tp speed on the latest “plan to save NJ”
Is this a normal practice? I got this e-mail from a realtor when I inquired about a place I noticed had taken a 10% asking price haircut:
“It’s not REO yet, still pre-foreclosure, but you would have to take it as is with pre-ap by Wells Fargo. You’re not required to use them, but they want to know its a real pre-ap. Also, there can be no home sale contingency, and you must be willing to allow sellers attorney speak with your lender regarding status of the mortgage.”
And it was forclosed on 10/29 according to the Monmouth Sheriff’s website.
Has Charlie Gasparino shed any light on his Ambac buyout report today? Has he even shown his face?
Looking at the stock markets recent reaction, I’m guessing a monoline was temporarily bailed out!
Corzine plan may include 4,000 layoffs and no more property rebate checks for people making over 150K.
I am not so sure our legislators will bite, I think they may just raise the tolls and gas tax to compensate short term.
The issue of the long term liabilities will not go away with a 2.5 Billion dollar budget cut.
“Has Charlie Gasparino shed any light on his Ambac buyout report today? Has he even shown his face?”
Don’t bring that loud mouth up. I’ve know doubt that was only “leaked” because the technicals were breaking towards another leg down. They’ll probably wait until it gets close a second time to reveal “the plan”.
104. Mitchell
4. Insurance – No explanation here if it isn’t car insurance its homeowners or health.
Interesting thing about Hospitals in NJ is how wide they vary on pricing. In 2003 Hunterdon Medical Center charged @ $1,200/day for inpatient room, versus Warren Hospital charged @ $9,500/day for inpatient room. Unless you’re a (Public Sector Tax Payer Pays All employee), your move also has to look at the local hospitals and what they charge. Somrthing few people think about.
Let me answer Mitchell:
February 25th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Sell your damm car if it is worth 4K instead of donating it.
NC is the place to be for slackers and people who think god dammit I get eight sick days I am taking eight sick days. If I were a postman or garbageman, I certainly be living down south.
In regards to six figure jobs in NY their are tons of jobs, problem is there are not a lot of candidates who have the proper degrees, work ethic, experience and certifications. Plenty of myspace, mtv, me generation candidates who are not qualified to do 200k jobs but nevertheless complain they don’t make 200K.
So go blame NJ, sure every Friday in the WSJ there are tons of houses for sale in the million plus range in NJ that the owners can affford cause they work for a living, but if it makes the slackard in you feel better just go and blame NJ.
Sean is right.
We must freeze the pension and medical benefits for all new hires so they are more inline with the average employee in the private sector. Unless this happens, NJ is going .PK!
U.S. Stocks Extend Gains as S&P Keeps AAA Rating on Ambac, MBIA
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPqCgD0Cz_W0&refer=home
MBIA Removed From Review at S&P, Ambac May Be Cut
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPjmF0WcLZWc&refer=home
I’m sorry, but I just can’t eat at the Cracker Barrel or Applebee’s in anticipation of my next trip to New York in 3 months.
Come on, Stu, you really think New Jersey has better restaurants than every other city in this country? Most cities have great restaurants – you can live in the suburbs and drive into downtown in 10-15 minutes and take advantage of them. Live in NJ and you are paying the babysitter for a minimum hour total commute time just get to the restaurant if you want to eat in NYC.
And NJ has an Applebees on almost every corner – I doubt they are filled with tourists.
Shore guy #47 and #103 – excellent posts.
Countrywide News From DealBreaker:
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/02/countrywide_puts_an_end_to.php
122. Stu:
If this was 1988, you would be right, but in 2008 more Draconian Measures are needed. Last year the legislature wanted to roll back the ill conceived 2001 Pension increase, but Corzine torpedoed that. Like Lucent, eliminate spousal benefits. Recast ridiculous rules like O.T. is included in Pension Calculations for Police. If they strike, replace them with out of work Vets. New rule, Public Pensions can never be more then 1%/ per year worked/ of base salary. New rule one person can only have one pension, pick one.
#121 “So go blame NJ, sure every Friday in the WSJ there are tons of houses for sale in the million plus range in NJ that the owners can affford cause they work for a living, but if it makes the slackard in you feel better just go and blame NJ.”
John – so why are they selling?
Artemis,
I live in Montclair and I can walk about 500 yards to get awesome Pizza, decent Chinese, BBQ, Indian, the dry cleaners and to purchase drugs at a mom and pop drug store. I AM well traveled and know that some good restaurants exist everywhere, but I like to have them in walking distance to my home. They are also pretty cheap. I just can’t give up my bagels and pizza. I lived in LA and Noah’s Bagels or any pizza was virtually inedible.
My sister lives outside of Cincinnati where they think Buca di Beppo is a special night out.
John you’ve spent 64 hours responding to this blog. Who know how many hours you wasted on angryoldcoot.com
I am from Cincinnati and believe me Buca di Beppo is a special night out in that town.
Hehehe: Goldstar or Skyline?
stu,
Olive Garden… now there’s fine eye-talian cuisine!
I’m sure if sister went into Cincinnati she would find many good places to eat. Most people even in NJ have to get into the car for a night out. Anyone living in a city can live within walking distance to restaurants. Montclair is a small city with a population of around 40K.
As an aside, I have not been impressed by Montclair BBQ or any NJ BBQ for that matter. Perhaps you have some recs.
Saw this on Calculated Risk…The total inventory increase in 2007 was almost 33% from December 2006 to July 2007 (4.561 million).
Does anyone know if this lines up with NJ?
JM
Artemis:
The Wood Pit is really good. I agree about the other BBQ being pretty bad.
For some reason, I see Montclair as being more of a suburb than a city.
Anyone here ever live in Virginia? (Not Louden County or other DC suburb).
What about Roanoke? Richmond?
THIS is what you can get out there;
http://www.youngrealtyco.com/default.asp?content=expanded&this_format=1&format_name=Residential&this_id=719670&do_display=True&query_id=73114684
I’m personally not that impressed with the restaurants in the suburbs of NYC. Maybe NNJ has more to offer than Westchester and CT. I was actually pretty surprised at how mediocre the restaurants were compared to those in the city when I moved out. Pizza is consistently good, but the higher end stuff is weak and overpriced. The restaurants nearby me are generic or when they attempt to be creative most execute it poorly (though not reflected on the bill). They seem to survive more on the convenience factor. Most of them if they were located in Manhattan would be out of business fast. Again, when people talk about access to great restaurants, I think many people are referring to those in the city (which they maybe only go to 3-4 times per year).
#136 – Thanks – I’ll check it out
Search for buca di beppo on Yahoo and the first listing will contain the following description.
“Italian dinners and sanitary bathrooms.”
Sounds appetizing!
I have family in the midwest and on Pizza night what gets delivered is some hellish version similar to Red Baron frozen pizza.
Every big city has to have some Culinary Arts graduate with some drive, a meat grinder, and the phone number for where to air ship whole Foie Gras :)
Since when Chilis, Macaronni Grill, White Castle, IHop, Red Lobster, Friday’s, Panera etc. etc. are High/end restaurants? Because that is what you find everywhere in NJ. Unless you want to pay $$ for a good restaurant in NJ that is where you go. (note that I said NJ, because NYC is a different story)
It is true, you cannot find decent pizza down south.
But it is also true that you cannot find decent BBQ or Cajun or real TexMex food around here. Just ask somebody from down south how they like our BBQ up here!
I agree with Artemis #125, most US cities (and I say, cities) have good restaurants, you just have to ask and find them. But if what if you are looking for when you travel south is to find the kind of pizza or Italian that you can find up here, then you will be dissapointed.
i liked this one lisoosh
http://tinyurl.com/2b625d
Stu,
I prefer Skyline to Gold Star but the local places are even better. Delhi Chili, Camp Washington Chili, Price Hill Chili are some of my favorites.
Financial Week:
Commercial property values in for steep drop, says loan liquidator
http://tinyurl.com/2w7soa
“With bank lending drying up, commercial borrowers with older loans coming due are now also having trouble lining up refinancing. Some older loans are ending up being sold within the distressed packages. Eventually, Mr. Tobin believes the declines in the commercial real estate market could mimic those being registered in the residential market now.”
I like Skyline too, but will try some of the others the next time I’m out there.
Gary #133-
My wife loves to quote that the Phoenix, AZ city magazine voted Olive Garden the #1 restaurant in town (this was several years ago). This is one of her main reasons for not even considering moving further west than NJ.
She’s tasted Italian in the Midwest and was horrified. I’m still convinced someone who’s a good Italian cook could make a fortune in the Midwest, like Oklahoma or Kansas where I spent a lot of time. Steaks, BBQ and Mexican gets boring after a while.
JM
“I ordered spaghetti with marinara and they gave me egg noodles with ketchup.
– Ray Liotta, Goodfellas
pret (93)-
I work for a living. I don’t have time to wonk the more-than-obvious details of the two previous NJ housing declines. The way the two previous ones occurred- rot beginning on the outside and working its way in- is generally accepted as the way things happened.
How’s about you sit down and talk to people who were actually doing business in 1979 or 1989? See what they say. If you’re branve enough to post that here, then maybe I’ll waste my time gathering stats that tell me something I already know.
BTW…this downturn is happening the same way all the rest of them have. Check out the sales in Easton/Allentown, Warren Co and Sussex Co. The rot is creeping inward…
Pret-
It’s interesting that every time you’re confronted with reality, your only rejoinder is to ask the questioner to launch himself into some sort of mind-numbing research project, in order to justify the obvious.
Sorry…that’s not acceptable, and I won’t bite. Your silly requests are further evidence of complete vacuousness of your wishful thinking.
138 skeptic:
I’ve noticed the exact same thing with more upscale restaurants near me. But I’m thinking it is the proximity to NYC that causes a drain of cooking talent in the nearby suburbs. Most likely, most chefs with skill and ambition are going to try their hand at making a go of it in the big city.
I actually think the lower-end restaurants tend to be much better overall in my area. The upscale places give you shitty food at expensive prices, not remotely comparable to everyday restaurants in NYC.
BklynHawk,
My wife’s Aunt has a friend who moved to Kansas years ago and sends her “supplies” from one of the local Italian delis on a regular basis. The friend in Kansas compares it to a care package from the Red Cross. :)
kettle – ew. But then again, at $27k, plenty of room for error.
Reading up on it, while Roanoke is slow and rural and pretty, Lynchburg his home to Falwell. So am taking a gander in the direction of Virginia Beach/Hampton etc. Pricier, but not like here.
Artemis (125)-
Mile for mile, NJ has the worst restaurants of any place I’ve ever been in the US.
When I entertain, it’s either to NYC, cook it myself or Hot Dog Johnny’s in Buttzville.
Clot [150],
The nasdaq, 2000-2003, wasn’t a bust. It was just a hiccup. If you believe otherwise, please forward me supporting evidence regarding your position.
I will not set foot in any Italian restaurant in NJ that has the following:
1. Mauve decor, a la Miami Vice.
2. Waiters in tuxedos.
3. Excessive use of marble and mirrors.
4. ANYTHING “fra diavolo”
5. ANYTHING “alla vodka”
6. 17 oz. portions of pasta. If I want to eat a giant plate of glue, I’ll fix it myself.
7. Wine lists that look like phone books.
8. Padded-leather bound menus.
The gubmint of Italy should somehow be able to sue 99% of all the Italian restaurant owners in NJ. Like the chef in “Big Night” said, they commit the “r@pe of food”.
If I was younger than 52, or currently unemployed, or if we didn’t have to work for a living and if I could convince myself that the Chapel Hill/Pittsboro area isn’t Deliverance territory, I would be in NC in a minute. But when you have a good job in this area, and your spouse has a good job in this area, and you are at an age when the age discrimination factor kicks in big-time no matter where you go, it makes it very difficult to relocate.
I’m not extolling the virtues of NJ, believe me. But while the Triangle area and Albuquerque and most major metro areas are cool to live in, once you get out of those areas and large college towns, you could find yourself getting harassed by police for the crime of having, say, an Obama bumper sticker on your car.
You guys are too much….you sound pretty unhappy here. The great thing about America is that you can move from state to state…find one that makes you happy. I have lived in NJ since 1999….but lived in 6 states in my life. Each has something to recommend it…though I do not intend to return to the midwest…..
Again, trying to compare italian from anywhere else in the US to what we have in the North East (other than Chicago) is like trying to compare apples and oranges, it is that mentality that makes people hate the ones who live up North. (my food is better than yours).
Instead of trying to compare the food that you have up here in the North, I suggest you open your mind and when you travel anywhere else in the US eat what the area has to offer, because if you really think that what you find up here is real Cajun or real TexMex or creole then you are missing a lot.
I can see that somebody that is used to eat good italian food that moves to the south looks forward to the goodie bag from up here, but seriously, what are they expecting? to find the Deli in every corner like we have up here? come on! give me a break!
Clot/Pret I worked RE in the late 80’s as well as my wife, (they called it thy gold coast then to)that till it all went to sh*t.
As far as the outer burbs I live in Sussex Co. & its a bloodbath up here getting worse.
So young Pret forget about charts & graphs
been there done that you will see.Experience
is the best teacher you would be foolhardy not to take heed.
BC Bob (155),
Priceless.
Jill,
You fret you’ll be acosted due to chosen lifstyle or opinion yet seem to have no problem making derogatory comments about other’s lifestyles or opinions.
I guess you think everyone will behave… well, like you.
Rich
Artemis (134)-
NJ BBQ? Hoo-hah!
Pork in ketchup.
Are you a Democrat, a Republican or a Southerner?
Here is a little test that will help you decide.
The answer can be found by posing the following question:
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
You’re walking down a deserted street with your wife and two small children. Suddenly, an Islamic terrorist with a huge knife comes around the corner, locks eyes with you, screams obscenities, praises Allah,
raises the knife, and charges at you. You are carrying a Glock cal 40, and you are an expert shot. You have mere seconds before he reaches you and your family. What do you do?
……………………………………………………..
Democrat’s Answer:
Well, that’s not enough information to answer the question!
Does the man look poor or oppressed?
Have I ever done anything to him that would inspire him to attack?
Could we run away?
What does my wife think?
What about the kids?
Could I possibly swing the gun like a club and knock the knife out of his hand?
What does the law say about this situation?
Does the Glock have appropriate safety built into it?
Why am I carrying a loaded gun anyway, and what kind of message does this send to society and to my children?
Is it possible he’d be happy with just killing me?
Does he definitely want to kill me, or would he be content just to wound me?
If I were to grab his knees and hold on, could my family get away while he was stabbing me?
Should I call 9-1-1?
Why is this street so deserted?
We need to raise taxes, have paint and weed day, and make this a happier, healthier street that would discourage such behavior.
This is all so confusing! I need to debate this with some friends for few days and try to come to a consensus.
………………………………………………….
Republican’s Answer:
BANG!
………………………………………………….
Southerner’s Answer:
BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG!
Click….. (Sounds of reloading)
BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! Click
Daughter: “Nice grouping, Daddy! Were those the Winchester Silver Tips or Hollow Points?”
Son: “Can I shoot the next one!”
Wife: “You ain’t taking that to the Taxidermist. “
re 121
As a former garbage man, I assure you that moving south to do it was not high on my wanna-do list.
Speaking of BBQ, anyone else been to Hill Country BBQ in the city?
BC Priceless LOL!
One of my favorite sites.
I’m there mostly for the c0cktail and b00ze info but I do enjoy reading the local man-on-the-street restaurant reviews for Jersey and “the City”.
eGullet Forums
I fear we may lose Clot to this stie once he starts reading (and commenting) on Jersey B-B-Q.
spazz,
Yes, I’ve been to Hill Country BBQ. Good stuff and unique setup. The best bbq I’ve had in the area is Dinosaur up in Harlem. It’s a safe area and a great, great place.
The best restaurant I’ve been to in NJ is Blu in Montclair. I love that place.
Jill (157)-
Went to UNC, lived in Chapel Hill the whole time. It’s not Deliverance.
However, do not enter Chatham Co. or stop on the way north out of town until you get to I-40.
waters,
Maybe I was at Dinosaur on a bad night, but the one time I went I was not too impressed with the cold, tough ribs they put on our table. I assume this was an aberration?
#120 Good Insurance is the best thing to get. Problem in consulting today is they use no name brand insurance companies. Example TekSystems uses a company called Beech Street Insurance. Its what they offer to Consultants. It costs the tech around $800-$1200 a month for the consultant with family but don’t expect anyone to have ever heard of them or them to acknowledge you when there is something you have submitted. Expect to make a lot of phone calls. While I have seen consulting on these boards I would say you certainly need to take into consideration is that $5.00 more an hour worth it?
This leaves out consulting if you have a family and full time employment pays less in NJ than it does in NC for me. This includes NY. With good insurance I’m not really worried.
#121 John: I make more than the jobs I am offered out of NY. Not much incentive to have less pay with significantly higher cost of living. Of course as I said this is probably more the consulting agencies skimming too much off tech’s trying to make glory days cash (Back when companies would pay $250 a hour for a high end tech). They try to do it here but once they quote you the price just tell them NO and be ready to walk away from the agency and you will get a better quote. They have a choice pay you or place nobody. 35% off the top is better than 0%. They all don’t need to make 50%-70% on you but they will if you let them. They do try and pull the well the south doesn’t quite pay like the north. Tell them BS they need to stop over skimming tech’s. Skimming too much leads to tech’s jumping ship so if you have a high turnover its most probably the consulting agency skimming too much that they can find jobs everywhere for more. Typical tech out of NY we might pay the consulting agency $108-$123 an hour the tech usually winds up with around $45-$70 an hour. In NC we pay around $86-$103 an hour to the consulting agencies. The problem is they try to get the same amount off the top so you hear well the most we can pay is $35-$40 an hour. You can immediately get them to $45 an hour getting them higher you better have the client really needing you and only you. In that case you can tell the agency bull you can afford to pay me $65 an hour for that position. They still make money just not as much as they would like to so they play the dead phone and wait till they dont have any other choice but to pay you while they scramble for other tech’s who will work for less. Some will go as far as calling your references to see if they will work for less. Always provide references that aren’t competition to you. The problem is there are a lot of techs everywhere underselling themselves because they buy the used car salesman/pimping of consulting companies. If your in the IT field I guess you now know what some of your billing rates are. Those are conservative run of the mill rates I just quoted too. There is book out there I think its called learn to be a better negotiator. Highly recommend any book on this paticular subject.
#125 I guess good Italian food in NJ = Olive Garden. There is excellent food in all populated areas maybe not on every street corner like NY but still a lot of good places to eat. Since most people down here are former NY/NJ residents good food has to exist or no one would be moving here.
NJ is a great state with some great people unfortunately the state is screwing you worse than any other housing bubble could. The 2 biggest factors for me was recognizing a housing bubble and realizing I could roll that equity into a home in an area that the cost of living isn’t nearly as high and second is realizing I wasn’t taking that big of a pay cut in the end. Quality of life was the special surprise because I expected something similar to my lifestyle or a loss to a certain degree just with a better financial position by moving. Instead it was the best decision we ever made. Kids, wife, and parents, etc.
#133 Nice someone else who supports the Olive Garden statement. For the record a second Brooklyn owned Italian restaurant opened in my area now. I would love for Jose Tejas to be here but we found a good Mexican source for food now.
In the end.
Housing was 50% less at the time (2005) of my move and the pay cut was that I make 85% of what I made in NJ. It also put me in a lesser tax bracket. I live in a house that is also 50% larger and brand new not 27 years old and looking at a new roof, pool liner, fence, kitchen remodel. Since then my house here has appreciated 15% while the house I sold in NJ has depreciated 14%. If it all means I am a dumb hillbilly who does line dancing eating at Applebee’s then so be it. YEE HAW!
I appreciate what Grim is doing with his site. While you might be waiting for bottom one might consider why wait there are 49 other states to consider. While they might decrease also you can take a hit on a 500,000 house or a 200,000 house. If the house you own loses 10% one hurts a lot worse than the other and requires a lot more income to maintain. The other well unemployment covers it and dinner at Applebee’s. Which position do you prefer to live in?
#134 Artemis,
My sister went to Xavier U. in Cincy. My father and I went to visit her back in the early 90s Someone suggested a Chinese place downtown. It was very unassuming.I remember having to take an elevator up to it but the decor & food were tremendous. My father still talks about it until this day. He grew up in Long Island and travels all over the world. Good food can be had anywhere. Just need to find it. My in laws live on Staten Island and we end up at Applebees even though great Italian is two steps away. Drives me nuts..
64 hours on this site is the equivalent of an executive MBA. It is time well spent.
Clot #154: Go to Lodos in New Milford sometime. Best hummus on the face of the earth.
As an aside, I have not been impressed by Montclair BBQ or any NJ BBQ for that matter. Perhaps you have some recs.
For KC BBQ, I’ve always thought Indigo Smoke was a good choice. I don’t respect a BBQ joint that doesn’t use lard, and they’ve assured me they aren’t stingy.
There are two restaurants in NJ that have decent Margherita pizza:
Leone’s in Montclair
Panevino in Livingston
The Leone’s pizza is more substantial, and sauce has more garlic. But I haven’t tried too many other dishes there.
In general, Panevino has a fairly good menu. But portions are smaller and more expensive.
Can anyone recommend others?
for good barbecue and cajun, try:
Pop’s BBQ in Madison
I think he’s from NOLA.
Bystander,
There is very little good Italian food in SI, despite the many Italians that live here. Unfortunately, Applebees is often a step up. I would suggest Dosi for good Italian that doesn’t just serve a giant bowl of slop.
Bubble,
For Cajun skip NJ all together and go to NoNo Kitchen in Park Slope Brooklyn. There is a Cajun place in SI called Bayou but I am really not impressed with them.
the Pop’s menu on their website is just a sampling – they’ve got lots more!
Re: 179
will do – hope it is worth the 2 hour drive!
Bubble
I’m not sure I trust a Cajun place that doesn’t have gator on the menu.
Bubble,
I swear to you it is. You’re talking to someone who used to drive out to Whitestone Queens for Cajun. Anyway, here’s the menu- decide for yourself:
http://www.menupages.com/restaurantdetails.asp?areaid=32&restaurantid=40887&neighborhoodid=0&cuisineid=15&home=Y
Jill, half of the ‘boonies’ here in New Mexico are Spanish land grants where a significant number of the population don’t even speak English.
The other would be Indian reservations, some of which are larger than NJ.
All you do is show your ignorance about the rest of the United States.
it is that mentality that makes people hate the ones who live up North
Of course it is. You keep telling yourself that.
lost (182)-
No gator?
Just braise your shoes, then eat them.
Clot
I don’t eat it but I know a lot of people who do. Ick!
Cajun = dust food with red hot powder & MSG, then incinerate until the surface of the food turns to pure carbon.
Yuck. :(
tastes just like chicken
lost (187)-
It’s like chicken…if chickens came with “Michelin” stamped on their sides.
Clotpoll, when I lived in Memphis I found the barbecue disgusting but I really liked the Cajun food such as beans ‘n rice.
Could never get a handle on okra, they should have called the stuff ‘snotpods’
spazz,
I admit I’ve only been to Dinosaur once, but it was great that one time. I had the pulled pork sandwich and it was better than the bbq I had in North Carolina during my college days. While I’m at it– UNC sucks. Go Deacs.
I don’t include traditional Cajun (gumbo, jambalaya, etoufee) in my “petrocarbon” classification.
The K-Paul, burnt-to-a-crisp stuff? You bet.
I went ‘frog-gigging’ once with one of the natives in Arkansas, after you try grilled frog legs you will find that gator isn’t so bad.
one of the worst Italian meals I’ve ever had was in Little Italy, my first week living in NYC…..however, due to the many offerings, one learns quickly here.
Aaron (191)-
“Clotpoll, when I lived in Memphis I found the barbecue disgusting but I really liked the Cajun food such as beans ‘n rice.”
You either get it or you don’t. Nice to know you found some hospital food while you were there.
Aaron (194)-
Frog? Now you’re talking…
There’s no such thing as frog-gigging.
It’s really a pitched battle with copperheads and cottonmouths, with the side prospect of actually being able to kill a frog or two in between attempts to save yourself.
try some ‘pearl-ribs’ some time.. that will clean you out.
I like grease just as much as the next guy, but down there it was just ridiculous.
Good Restaurant Italian Food, Marco Polo’s (1934) on Morris Avenue in Summit, just up from Chatham & Short Hills Mall. Quick Reasonable Italian Family Fare, Chimney Rock in Gillete or Bridgewater.
my father in law (who is Italian) loves to talk to waiters about how most of the stuff you see on Italian menus was considered peasant food 40 years ago. Given the way demographics in this country are changing, it will be interesting to see what people consider fine dining in 10 or 20 yrs. I have been to some Mexican restaurants in the Southwest that are truly off the hook– completely gourmet. Interestingly, my in laws won’t go out for Mexican food. In their mind, Mexican food is Taco Bell.
I promise when I buy a house you can all come over for some good Cajun food. Sorry, no gator (shoes or tires) or frog legs. Maybe I can dig up some road kill like the bayou cajuns do. :)
I’m no expert on Cajun food, but despite the bar it turns into at night, I’ve always enjoyed Oddfellow’s in Hoboken (not sure about the one in Jersey City)…
As for food in NJ, it is substantially better than many other places in the US. Some places have some good restaurants like Palm Beach, LA, San Fran, Chicago, but between NYC and the fine restaurants in Jersey it is tough. There are many good restaurants in Montclair, Red Bank, Ridgewood, et al. That could compete with many places in NY. In Jersey City you can get the best mexican food in the north east at Charitos, or excellent Argentine food at La Fusta or Chimichurri Grill, chinese food at Confucius is great, Light Horse tavern is great, or even Triumph, and don’t get me started on pizza with La Rustique.
The food here in the NYC metro area is unique because of the diversity of the people and the culinary talent that is drawn here and the potential for profit.
I lived in Michigan for a while and a good meal even in Ann Arbor was hard to come by, I would often go to Canada to little italy in Windsor to get a good meal. Most large metropolitan cities have good restaurants, but it is not like NYC area. I eat out 3 times a week on average both in NYC and NJ, I also have worked a chef in 4 star restaurants, and really know and love food. There is a good variety of food and a good lot of it is decent, some is good but inconsistent, and some could even cross the line to greatness. Other places besides NY/NJ, Boston, Philly, Chicago, Miami, Palm Beach, and California I will get bored of the food quickly. As for Italian in Little Italy, what are you thinking it is a TOURIST TRAP!
Oddfellow’s in Hoboken
I’ve always enjoyed that place in the summer.
Of course, make sure you hit Amanda’s on Washington.
#160 mike: It a hopeless case with young pret.
Italian in Hoboken or NNJ has to be
http://www.augustinosrestaurant.com/
It’s small cash only and if you can’t get a reservation try and sit at the bar.
The food is a 9.9/10
Oddfellows in JC is I think closed. If you are looking for a good Italian in JC try Prestos.
Last night I had Cuban at Mi Banderra in Union City.
#204 – “Other places besides NY/NJ, Boston, Philly, Chicago, Miami, Palm Beach, and California I will get bored of the food quickly. ”
Yeah- no decent restaurants in New Orleans. How well do you know food exactly to forget one of the best places for food in this country?
By the way, this country is changing demographically every year. You would be surprised which cities have large ethnic enclaves now (and as a result great ethnic food).
Anyway, this issue started because there is a prejudice held my many in the tri-state area that you cannot find good food and culture anywhere else- which alone validates the high cost of living here. There may be more volume of good food in NYC, but if you can find great food and museums, etc elsewhere, is it worth the cost difference?
3b (206)-
Utterly pathetic.
I guess every economy has to have a certain amount of roadkill.
#101 pret:But I don’t see a statewide crash happening, which seems to be a contrarian outlook compared to most posters here.
Young pret, it is already happening;and so are the layoffs.
#94 pret: Either the data is wrong are you ain’t reading it right.
I lived it;it happened.
#209 clot: Young pret is on the menu.
#92 Rich: Pret says it did not happen. I and many others I know lived through it. Guess it was all just a bad dream.
#22 Ann:as modern recessions do—about eight months.”
I think this one will be a lot longer than 8 months.Plus of course the long recovery time, once the recession is officially over.
Grew up in VA. You don’t want to be in Roanoke. It’s 3 hours south of Northern VA/DC, and the closest ‘action’ would be Blacksburg and VT football games.
Roanoke is very, very white.
You can get nearly as much house in Eastern PA/Bucks County for the prices in Roanoke. Better schools, and closer to NYC.
there is a prejudice held my many in the tri-state area that you cannot find good food and culture anywhere else
You can keep saying this, but it doesn’t make it so.
Mentioning places with awful food doesn’t mean that food is awful everywhere.
pret –
i lived in your area during the last crash – it was bad –
i don’t have charts and graphs, just my memory – i remember the prices of the condos in the gregory commons just sank.
people who claimed they had offers on houses in the high twos back then, couldn’t get in the mid 100’s.
New restaurant opened near me (Atlanta) – Italian – two guys from Long Island. Real honest to God pizza. It was a religious experience. The place is packed with homesick people from NY and NJ every single night. They drive an hour or more just for real Italian food then wait an hour outdoors for a table. There is hope for life in the South after all.
3b 214 Getting a gut feeling this one will be worse than we have seen before.So many thinge in the sh*t.I don’t remember there being so much going wrong at once.Its going to get real ugly before it gets better.This is only the 3rd inning in my mind.Wait till it hits the fan at Goldman
then they will really think the sky is falling.I have to tell ya I’m a little afraid of this one if things shake out the wrong way its the big D for U.S. forget the
recession.It will not take to many of the factors at work here to put us over.Hope not!
JCER #204
“As for Italian in Little Italy, what are you thinking it is a TOURIST TRAP!”
like i said, my first week here, I was essentially a tourist….call it a good learning experience.
There’s nothing like poached bugs with your artichoke. Waiter didn’t even blink.
Welcome to NY, capital of the world, pal!
lisoosh #153
re: VA options
check out Charlottesville, Orange, and points on up toward Warrenton, VA. Lots of possibilities there, UVA community, etc. still within a 3 hour drive of DC.
And if you are a foodie, there’s the Inn at Little Washington.
Forlini’s on Baxter St, at the start of China Town.
Artemis Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Anyway, this issue started because there is a prejudice held my many in the tri-state area that you cannot find good food and culture anywhere else- which alone validates the high cost of living here. There may be more volume of good food in NYC, but if you can find great food and museums, etc elsewhere, is it worth the cost difference?
Art: I cannot politely disagree with you more. It was always the case that NYC was one of the best foodie cities in the U.S., but the last six or seven years has created almost a culinary magnet over Manhattan, sucking the talent from everywhere to here. I kept going to different cities, and EVERY LAST TIME NYC does it better…..EVEN FOR THE MONEY.
Chicago, SF, Boston, LA, DC…no,no,no…..randomly the three best non-NYC-area meals I’ve had in the last ten years were in Santa Fe NM, Detroit (yes!?!) and Paris…
BTW – has anyone skipped through AC recently? You might be pleasantly surprised….don’t believe the hype though, research before you go and pick the clear quality ones…..
CHI FI Heard some good things on AC food too.
Look at some idiot Realtor had to say in AZ. These guys never learn. These realtors wouldn’t hesitate to pimp their wives for commission $$$
“If I would have described this whole process as a hurricane coming through Phoenix, I would tell everybody that for the last month I’ve been taking the shutters off the windows because I think the eye of the storm and most of it is behind us,” said Floyd Scott, president of Century 21 Arizona Foothills, which has 10 offices and 460 agents in Phoenix. “Now we’re in the process of picking up the debris.”