From Bloomberg:
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell in March; Prices Lower
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell in March as loan restrictions and the prospect of further price declines kept buyers away.
Purchases dropped 2 percent, less than forecast, to an annual rate of 4.93 million, from 5.03 million in February, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median sales price fell 7.7 percent from a year earlier.
Defaults on subprime mortgage loans have led banks to tighten borrowing rules, while home values are decreasing as foreclosures add to the glut of unsold properties. The housing slump, now in its third year, is one reason some Federal Reserve policy makers are concerned the U.S. is heading into a recession.
“The declines will persist through 2008,” Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. in Toronto, said before the report. “To see a consistent upturn in sales and prices, we’re going to need to work through the slump in housing and the crisis in the credit market. That will take time.”
Resales were forecast to fall 2.3 percent to a 4.92 million annual rate, according to the median projection of 72 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 4.8 million to 5.08 million.
Sales fell 19.3 percent in March compared with a year earlier. Resales averaged 5.67 million in 2007.
…
The number of homes for sale at the end of March increased by 40,000 to 4.06 million. At the current sales pace, that represented 9.9 months’ worth, up from 9.6 months’ worth at the end of the prior month.The median price of an existing home dropped to $200,700 from $217,400 a year earlier.
From the WSJ:
New Threat: Loan Losses
By PETER EAVIS
April 22, 2008; Page C3
The next earnings nightmare for banks has begun.
Until now, losses at many banks have come from multibillion dollar write-downs on toxic debt. But analysts believe the costs of building bad-loan reserves could cause just as much pain — and for a lot more banks.
Banks establish bad-loan reserves as a cushion against expected losses on defaulted loans. Additions to these reserves, called “provisions,” get booked as an expense in a bank’s income statement and reduce earnings.
Now, as the economic downturn starts to bite, rising defaults are prompting banks to add larger sums to the reserves, a development that has hurt first-quarter earnings at some lenders.
…
“It’s a good thing that banks have started to reserve more,” says Kevin Fitzsimmons, banks analyst at Sandler O’Neill & Partners. “The bad news is that they are going to need those reserves.”
From The Day (CT):
Home Prices And Sales Decline In First Quarter
The median price of a single-family home fell $10,000 in the past three months, continuing a downward trend that started in the third quarter of last year, according to statistics released by the Eastern Connecticut Association of Realtors.
The median price of homes in New London and Windham counties now stands at $245,000, which is $7,000 less than a typical home cost at this time last year. It’s also $30,000 less than in the second quarter of 2007, at the height of the local real-estate boom.
Prices declined nearly 4 percent over the past three months and stand 2.8 percent less than they were a year ago.
Sales have been on the decline for a year, the victim of high prices, increases in some interest rates and the fallout from the national subprime-mortgage fiasco. Last quarter saw sales of single-family homes in the region decline 21.3 percent from the same quarter in 2007.
From Prudential Fox & Roach:
The five-county Southern New Jersey area saw a 5.4 percent decrease in median sale price of existing homes from $222,000 in March 2007 to $210,000 in March 2008. This is down from the median sale price of existing homes in February 2008, which was $215,000. The number of homes sold decreased 41.4 percent from 1,856 in March 2007 to 1,087 sold in March 2008. The average number of homes sold in February 2008 was 738. The number of days homes stayed on the market increased 17.6 percent to an average of 94 days in March 2008 compared to 80 days in March 2007. The number of days a home stayed on the market in February 2008 was 93.
From the AP:
Struggling homeowners could get new government-backed loans
Homeowners staggering under mounting mortgage debt and facing foreclosure could get cheaper, government-backed loans under Democrats’ housing rescue plan.
But first, lenders would have to agree to wipe out part of their debt. And the borrowers would have to show they could afford the new mortgage. They also would have to agree to share any future profits on the home with the government.
The plan would be a massive expansion of the Federal Housing Administration, the Depression-era mortgage insurer. FHA would take on $300 billion in new loans for as many as 1 million distressed homeowners, most of whom otherwise wouldn’t qualify for a government-backed loan.
Taxpayer dollars would be at risk should borrowers default on their new mortgages. The FHA, however, would have some non-taxpayer money to cover losses. The agency would collect a 3 percent fee on the refinanced loans, as well as annual 1.5-percent premiums, and share a portion of borrowers’ future proceeds if the property is refinanced again in the future or sold.
National City on a roll..
From the WSJ:
Merrill Unit Wants Losses Covered
April 22, 2008; Page C5
National City Corp. said that a Merrill Lynch & Co. unit wants it to cover some losses associated with loans repurchased by subprime lender First Franklin Mortgage Co., which Merrill acquired in 2006 from National City.
In a filing, the company said Merrill Lynch Bank & Trust Co. alleged that National City Bank has breached certain representations in the First Franklin agreement. The unit said it is seeking to be indemnified against First Franklin’s alleged losses associated with its claimed repurchase of loans.
National City and Merrill Lynch wouldn’t discuss the amount of losses the unit is seeking to be indemnified against. A spokeswoman for National City declined to comment.
EDITORIAL: Numbers game further clouds a housing goal
Mount Laurel wasn’t meant to pit builders against towns. Nor was it meant to provide more low- and moderate-income housing in cities. And it certainly wasn’t meant to inspire bureaucrats to devise housing quotas based on square footage of residential and non-residential new construction. It was intended, very simply, to outlaw exclusionary zoning that denied people of limited means an opportunity to move into communities of their own choosing.
The appropriate solution to this problem is, and always has been, for municipalities to adopt zoning ordinances that allow for construction of affordable housing. If the courts, the Legislature and COAH would focus on this remedy, instead of building a bureaucratic superstructure filled with convoluted rules and regulations, maybe New Jersey would actually build housing filled by people who need it.
I feel in few years, Supreme Court will have to step in and do something drastic. I wonder if they force town to build so many affordable houses, it also translates into many more market rate units. I don’t think towns will be willing to pay from Taxpayers money, so Builders remedy is only choice, which will result in large glut of new housing approvals. More supply, less demand, Prices go down much further.
N.J. job growth low, report says
New Jersey’s private-sector job growth ranked 41st nationwide each of the past two years in a sign that its high costs drove employers away, Rutgers University economists said in a report released Monday.
And the state faces bleak prospects: New Jersey has a high concentration of jobs in the financial services sector, which is getting hit hard in the economic downturn, they said.
“I’ve seen a lot of cyclical times with real estate, but I’ve never seen it this bad,” said Arnie Lubliner, general manager of Winstar Mortgage Co. in Manasquan, where business in 2007 was off 63 percent from the previous year.
Last week alone, Citigroup Inc. said it plans to reduce its work force by another 9,000, after announcing 4,200 job cuts in January. And Merrill Lynch & Co. said it plans to cut 3,000 jobs in addition to the 1,000 jobs previously announced, according to a summary by the Associated Press.
Mortgage brokers have inquired about jobs, but “I can’t afford to pay them; they need to work on commission,” he said. “And people are afraid to work on commission because the business has slowed down so much.”
March NJMLS Home Sales for Bergen County
Year #Sold #U/C
1995 483 806
1996 509 989
1997 535 938
1998 610 1083
1999 661 1093
2000 659 982
2001 593 848
2002 694 942
2003 589 832
2004 707 1114
2005 702 1133
2006 644 1025
2007 658 974
2008 434 598
U/C = Under Contract = Pending Sales
U.S. sales of previously owned homes probably fell in March…
Bergen County sales of previously owned homes DID fall in March. Down 34% from last year.
And looking at the pending homes sales April and May do not look good either.
N.J. lawmakers lied about lasting relief
Only a year later, our so-called permanent property-tax relief is being slashed by Trenton.
Well, it’s a year later, and rebates sure aren’t looking like permanent relief now.
Gov. Jon Corzine’s proposed budget calls for eliminating the 10 percent rebates for households earning between $150,000 and $250,000. It calls for slashing the 15 percent rebates for those earning between $100,000 and $150,000 by about $300 to a $665 rebate. And it calls for dramatically cutting rebates for renters; rebates for them would go to a puny $80 from as much as $350 last year.
If this is what happens one year after our lawmakers promise us something they say will be “permanent,” what are we to expect will happen next year? There’s no reason for any New Jerseyan to have faith right now that any property-tax relief will exist next year.
If the Legislature and its special committees had not been so chicken, so afraid to give us real, substantive changes to the entire process of how schools are funded, how local governments work, the size of state government, etc. They wouldn’t have needed to settle on just rebate checks — they could have actually lowered people’s property-tax bills. That’s what the people of this state want, and it’s what our lawmakers have miserably failed to provide after years of shallow promises and insincere “We feel your pain” statements.
We’ve come to the point where the people of this state have no reason to believe anything our state senators and Assembly members — especially the Democrats who championed these rebates — have to say. When they’re up for re-election in 2009, just remember how permanent their tax relief has been and how much their promises are worth.
snip – “They also would have to agree to share any future profits on the home with the government.” snip
Wow. “share” um.
How much do they get 50% or 75% or 99%
Let’s see. Government has just seriously incentivized itself to helping homeowners and helping themselves to the profits.
Who’s reimbursing joe (prudent) taxpayer whose bucks are being used to help joe (in over my head) homeowner??
sl
sl (11)-
Great. In Europe, gubmint is big brother. Here, they’re loan sharks.
Bergen County NJMLS First of the Month Inventory Numbers
Month 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
April 3,342 3,288 5,330 5,526 5,956
May 3,546 3,567 5,809 5,972
June 3,932 3,913 6,350 6,248
Currently: 6,226
Saudi King Abdullah drops quiet bombshell; U.S. media sleep through it
Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world’s top exporter for future generations…
“When there were some new finds, I told them, ‘no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it’,” King Abdullah said…
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=358&Itemid=91
From the AP:
RBS exposure: another $11.7B in losses tied to mortgages
Royal Bank of Scotland said Tuesday it had suffered $11.7 billion in additional losses and was forced to raise $23.9 billion in new capital to cover exposure to toxic U.S. loans.
The bank said it would raise even more capital by asking shareholders to approve a rights issue that will offer them 11 new shares for every 18 existing shares at 200 pence ($3.98) each.
RBS said it expects further write-downs on mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other assets of 4.3 billion pounds ($8.6 billion).
Above $118? Wow.
I believe most people here want a recently updated 3-4 bedroom, 2 bath house in a Chatham type town for around $320,000
While we’re at it, can I win the Powerball?
I think most people here would be satisfied with a non-cape updated 4/2 in Chatham for five.
Where’s Chatham?
;P
Classic. Heavy hitter and 50.5 can’t even get on the same page. Who’s on first?
with gas prices going through the roof I’ll take Chatham for 200000, but I know that is not going to happen. Sellers are going to have to make concessions for the commute
#3,
“The five-county Southern New Jersey area saw a 5.4 percent decrease in median sale price of existing homes from $222,000 in March 2007 to $210,000 in March 2008.”
Grim,
Where in NJ do you find a house for $210,000?
“I just don’t like people doing that when they should have brought a house to support this country.”
50.5,
Quite the contrary. I did my part, selling. The blueprint was to allow the masses to “buy” a home. I supported that agenda. I allowed them to bid and bid. In addition to that, I also supported our administration’s/treasury’s agenda to pummel our dollar. Again, I did not fight it. Who’s more accommodating than me?
See what I mean? Sometimes you have to lower your standards. I did and ended up in a decent town with great neighbors. Yes, it is a far cry from where I really wanted to live (Ridgewood) but I guess I am not Ridgewood material :(
“I believe most people here want a recently updated 3-4 bedroom, 2 bath house in a Chatham type town for around $320,000”
tbw [16],
Not me. I’m only looking for 30% off the peak.
Rich do you have #s for Sussex county. I don’t get much play up here as I’m the only one here to my knowledge. By the way folks I know a lot of people getting frustrated by lack of declines in BC & such. I have no complaints things are dropping nicely & should be back to normal appreciation by winter 08-09.
What happened to my posts?
#21: Camden, Newark, Irvington, Linden, Bayonne
Frank 21 Sussex CTY NJ.
Dont forget about West Milford. In my single days, I almost bought a bungalow up there. Nice if you like broken Camaro’s and a “woodsey” feel.
Rich {8],
Thanks. Only a 34% decline. Sounds like we are stabilizing, dancing along the bottom.
Where in NJ do you find a house for $210,000?
Frank,
South Jersey?
Here you go Frank, an NJ home for under $210k:
http://www.realtor.com/realestate/millville-nj-08332-1097624385/
Property taxes are probably under $5k.
It’s like another world down there.
heavy hitter Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 8:09 am
What happened to my posts?
Got hit with a re-set?
# thatBIGwindow Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 7:35 am
I believe most people here want a recently updated 3-4 bedroom, 2 bath house in a Chatham type town for around $320,000
I would be OK, if prices were at 1999 + 4% to 5% appreciation every year after that. For the house sold for $300K in 1999, I would gladly pay $410K. At the worst, considering interest rates went down from 8% to 6%, on can imagine upto $450K.
Not the current asking prices of $600K.
BC,
thanks for the e-mail. is that hotmail address, your general use one?
Did anyone here on NPR this morning, they did an interview with a guy from Shell Oil about the peak oil scenarios that they have predicted????
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89831088
RBS exposure: another $11.7B in losses tied to mortgages
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080422/britain_rbs.html
So when do we break the $1 trillion mark in writedowns? We should start a pool.
kettle [35],
Yes, hotmail.
And the state faces bleak prospects: New Jersey has a high concentration of jobs in the financial services sector, which is getting hit hard in the economic downturn, they said.
Job losses are the inevitable consequence of any recession. This is typically a cyclical process of recessions and expansions. What concerns me is; how many of these jobs will return to NJ once the economy recovers? Will NJ be like Detroit, where jobs during downturns and never return?
As larger national/multi-national companies begin to add jobs, will they bring them back to NJ or will they bring them back to places with more friendly business climates? It’s one thing to relocate en existing employee or move an existing business unit, it’s another thing to simply expand operations in a more business friendly climate during the next expansion.
Steve 13,
they have also come out and said that their stated reserves are not the same as their recoverable reserves….. in other words they do not have nearly as much oil as they say they do.
tBw 29 I have done some work in W. Milford in some real nice neighborhoods. You could also be on 287 in no time. Houses were not summer places at all. Ranches ,bi,chc maybe you were just looking at small vacation homes.
From the WSJ:
Home Data
May Inspire
False Hope
By SCOTT PATTERSON
April 22, 2008; Page C1
The housing news has been so grim for so long that investors seize on any data that is less than disastrous as a sign of a recovery right around the corner.
That is a risky bet based more on wishful thinking than common sense. With the economy teetering on recession, credit tight and the labor market weakening, odds are that housing will keep getting worse before it starts to get better.
Tuesday’s National Association of Realtors’ report on existing-home sales in March will test investor thirst for good news. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecast that March sales will drop 2% from the previous month. If the report is better than that, expect to hear talk about more lights flashing at the end of the tunnel.
Economists also were expecting a drop in February. Instead, sales rose to a 5.04 million annual rate, a surprising 2.9% increase from January, the first uptick since July. Investors celebrated. NAR economist Lawrence Yun said the report is a sign housing is “stabilizing.”
Investors looked past some unsettling data in the February report. While sales were up slightly from January, they were still 24% below a year earlier. More troubling, the median home price hit $195,000, down 8.2% from the previous year, the biggest drop on record.
Don’t expect to see a meaningful pickup in sales until prices stop falling. Few buyers are going to leap into a new house if they fear its price will drop. Declining prices are a primary reason why economists at Global Insight don’t expect existing-home sales to reach bottom until the third quarter, hitting an annual rate of 4.35 million, a 13% decline from February.
“The labor market is weakening, credit markets are very tight and home prices are dropping at an accelerating rate,” Global Insight economist Patrick Newport says. “Put those three together, and it doesn’t look like a good time for sales to bottom out.”
BC
have you been watching Grangemouth in scotland?
Mike (25),
I pulled year-to-date (1/1 – 4/22) stats from NJMLS, but I doubt that this MLS actually covers that area. Grim could probably tell you which one does.
Year #Sold #U/C Inventory
2000 2 1
2001 1 5
2002 3 3
2003 1 2
2004 2 2 7
2005 4 8 12
2006 7 9 21
2007 2 2 78
2008 14 28 155
Historical Actives (inventory) are not available prior to 1/1/2004
I don’t believe NJMLS requires members to list Sussex, that is GSMLS only.
I’m worried that the recession will not come soon enough. I would much prefer a sharp correction rather a gradual decline or flat-line until the next administration.
I understand that it’s an election year, but this administration seems content with doing nothing from here on out.
I’ll be finished my MBA in about a year. I was hoping that I would be graduating and looking for work in an improving market.
Mike, here are the March YOY numbers.
Sussex March Sales (GSMLS)
2001 – 183
2002 – 182
2003 – 181
2004 – 176
2005 – 189
2006 – 175
2007 – 162
2008 – 89
Sussex March Inventory (GSMLS)
2001 – 1477
2002 – 1380
2003 – 1395
2004 – 1652
2005 – 1747
2006 – 2089
2007 – 2502
2008 – 2525
A little long to start the morning, but sounded pretty good…
NY Times Magazine.
Triple-A Failure
By ROGER LOWENSTEIN
How Moody’s and other credit-rating agencies licensed the abuses that created the housing bubble.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/magazine/27Credit-t.html?hp=&pagewanted=all
21 Frank
Grim,
Where in NJ do you find a house for $210,000?
Frank, You find it in 2010.
Canada cuts by 50 bps.
Much thanks guys for the #s for the other side of no where. Looking pretty bleak. By winter 08-09 it should be time to start looking seriously.
This one doesn’t pass the smell test…….it sounds as if a group of greens celebrating Earth Day are miscasting high prices as a SUPPLY issue, when in fact, it is likely a DEMAND issue…..opportunists…
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04222008/news/regionalnews/warm__beer_crii_107498.htm
# 49
I think that is a good call. Spring season is weak at best. Many of these builders/sellers will be stuck with properties for the winter. Lowball in 2009 is a good strategy
A small thought for Earth Day. I remember standing in the Hoboken train station watching the water start to flood the entrance to the ferry terminal. At that point I realised how vunerable that area is and that it may be time to move.
New York/Newark, N.J.
World rank: 2
Population at risk: 1.5M
Current assets at risk: $320 billion
New York City doesn’t experience hurricanes or flood frequently the way Miami does, which perhaps explains why the city has so few flood defenses. But like Miami, the New York metro area is inherently swampy and has large populations situated on the waterfront (the island of Manhattan has an area of less than 23 square miles), which makes it susceptible to rising sea levels. As one of the country’s most densely populated areas with expensive, high occupancy real estate near the water, it’s no surprise that New York ranked so high in terms of both population and assets at risk.
#8&12 Richnj: Thanks as always for your timely information.
chifi,
I am not an economist so please feel free to correct me, but if demand continues to outstripe supply, does it not become a supply issue?
Although i do agree with your assessment in 50
mr p 52 The way I look at it the worst case scenario is that prices are the same as they are now. I have a very cheap rental & an easy 30- 40 % DP so Mike in waiting I am. There is always another deal or REO they seem to come up every 1-2 months, but I have held strong. We shall see if I’m right.
That’s it the country is going to hell in a hand basket, we may have to cut back on beer consumption.
From Bloomberg:
Credit Suisse Says It’s Cutting 500 Jobs as Client Demand Wanes
Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, is cutting 500 jobs in its investment banking and administrative support divisions as demand for the firm’s services declines.
“Due to market conditions and projected staffing levels required to meet client needs, we are reducing global headcount by approximately 500 across our investment banking division and shared services division,” said Bruce Corwin, a spokesman in the Zurich-based bank’s New York office.
Credit Suisse’s investment banking division includes sales and trading as well as bankers who advise companies on takeovers or capital-raising. The bank’s administrative unit is known internally as “shared services.”
The bank in January cut 500 jobs from its investment banking division.
Wow, look at all the pre-foreclosures in Hoboken. It looks like Hoboken is turning into the next Detroit.
http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?txtZip=07030
ket – What about Grangemouth?
Canada cuts by 50 bps.
And they cite the U.S. as a reason.. Oh bother.
SteveTheBrigadoonian Says:
““When there were some new finds, I told them, ‘no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it’,” King Abdullah said…”
Now we are put to shame by the Saudis. If they found it here, the government would have been borrowing against it to give rich guys tax cuts to use to buy big screen TV’s. Scr*w the kids.
BigWindow – My only criteria at this moment would be a lack of dry rot and for the removal of the chair the previous owner died in.
I am way beyond hoping for renovated homes in Chatham like towns.
southern New Jersey towns at 200,000
Galloway
Hamilton
Mays Landing
Tuckerton
Pomona
Just to name a few. I went to college down there, it certainly is another world. I have some great stories and the fishing and hunting weren’t half bad. I would not move back though being that close to Atlantic city rots your brain. You would swear you are also in a southern state. Apparently, when AC was a way station during WWII southern boys loved the area so much they came back and stayed. Thus in turn creating the pineys, abohorrent creatures with southern accents. Not kidding southern accents! Combined with the philly folks make the place inhabitable in the summer.
Actually if you want to see inflation go to the beer distributor. All the 12 packs are priced at what 24 packs were priced at just a few years ago. A 100% increase. Plus those 1.5 litter cokes selling at what 2 litter cokes sold at two years ago.
Lisoosh, 59
The refinery at grangemouth is set to shut down on sunday due to a strike. This could have interesting effects on energy markets.
Management and trades union officials at the Grangemouth refinery in Scotland are to meet on Tuesday at the ACAS conciliation service for talks to avoid a strike planned at the weekend, a union official said.
“There’s a party going to ACAS this morning for a meeting at 2 pm,” Gordon Russell, a union convenor at the refinery for the trade union UNITE.
Russell said management had made no new proposals at talks with the union on Monday evening to avert the strike called over the 200,000 barrel a day refinery’s pension scheme and the two-day strike was still set to go ahead on Sunday.
“Everything stays as it is pending the discussions,” he said.
The planned strike at Grangemouth was one of the factors driving oil prices to a record high on Monday.
Refinery owner Ineos has started closing one of the refinery’s three crude processing units as part of a safety shutdown ahead of the strike.
A shutdown at Grangemouth would reduce flows of North Sea crude into Britain and hit British gas supplies, if the Forties pipeline, which feeds the refinery, is forced to close.
grim Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 9:40 am
Canada cuts by 50 bps.
And they cite the U.S. as a reason.. Oh bother.
US is importing it’s inflation all over the world. Dollar being global currency and being deliberately inflated – all otehr countries have no choice but to inflate as well. It will not end good.
Let them eat cake!!
From MarketWatch:
U.S. existing-home sales fall 19.3% in past year
U.S. March existing-home median price down 7.7% in past year
U.S. March existing-home inventories up 1%; 9.9-month supply
U.S. March existing-home sales fall 2% to 4.93M as expected
From MarketWatch:
Home resales fall 2% to 4.93 million in March
The U.S. housing market weakened slightly in March, as resales of U.S. homes fell, inventories climbed and prices continued to decline, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Resales of U.S. homes and condos dropped 2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.93 million from 5.03 million in February, matching economists’ expectations. Resales have sunk 19.3% in the past year. Inventories of homes for sale rose 1% to 4.06 million, representing a 9.9-month supply at the March sales pace. The median sales price fell 7.7% in the past year to $207,000.
Chatham non cape 4/2 for $500K? I could see that but not for quite some time (2010/2011 at earliest). Prices are lowering here but it is taking plenty of time. A neighbor down the street took a job in another state and put his 3 bedroom 2 bath colonial on the market for $769 (nice house, nothing special though-minimum upgrades). Before the guy left I told him priceless advice: “Your house is in a great location, when you get your first offer, work it hard but be nice and get as much as you can but DO NOT let it die”
What did the fool do? He got a $700K initial offer and let it die without working it to maybe get $710/715. Guess what, house is now sitting empty at $699 and people see an empty house and see blood in the streets. This guy bought in 2004 and still has another $50K to go before he approaches his break even point but he is getting there fast.
I am torn on this sale though. This house is a perfect comp for my own home a few doors down but after he ignored my advice, I can’t help but want to see him take a bath on it. I am not going anywhere and I am still firmly in the black on my 2006 purchase. I guess that makes me a d*ck, oh well.
Prices and home sales are up in the Northeast.
[35] Kettle:
http://www.shell.com/static/aboutshell-en/downloads/our_strategy/shell_global_scenarios/shell_energy_scenarios_2050.pdf
I actually got a copy last week from a friend… I didn’t hear about it on NPR.
John,
Beer prices are going through the roof because of the world hop shortage. I would also believe that the rise in grain prices over the past year is not starting to double whammy the price.
“gary Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 10:06 am
Prices and home sales are up in the Northeast.
Well I guess its over then. Thanks everyone for playing. Will see you in 10 years. Same time, same channel.
spam
shell has actually been trying to tell people about the energy issue for a couple of years now, and they have been generally ignored.
We’ve seen some decent size cuts from the likes of Citi, Merrill, Bear & Lehman. I’m surprised some of the other firms are hanging in there like Goldman, Credit Suisse, Bank of America and JP Morgan. With deal flow so slow, what are these guys doing? Does mgmt think this credit crunch is just a phase and business as usual will start up again? Surprised some more marginal shops are not chopping, not a lot of loans, IPO’s or M&A going around for everyone to work on.
Crazy situation happening in Canada right now.
Most Canadians live in Ontario and Quebec where economies depend on shipping manufactured stuff to the US. But western provinces (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan) booming as result of commodities boom.
The home price increases seen in Alberta and now Saskatchewan make the US home price boom look modest. Saskatchewan prices are up 43% year-over-year, according to Canadian Real Estate Association data.
Bank of Canada cuts are intended to save Ontario and Quebec but they add fuel to boom in the western provinces.
The best economic opportunity in the developed world today is in western Canada. Has anybody considered moving there instead of North Carolina or Pennsylvania?
From the AP:
Existing home sales decline as housing slump continues
Sales of existing homes fell in March while the median home price declined, as a severe slump in housing showed no signs of abating.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums dropped by 2 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million units.
The median price of a home sold last month dropped by to $200,700, a decline of 7.7 percent from the median price a year ago. That was the second-biggest year-over-year price decline on records dating back to 1999.
The best economic opportunity in the developed world today is in western Canada. Has anybody considered moving there instead of North Carolina or Pennsylvania?
Why – moving somewhere after the boom has occured is not smart.
Al, the economic boom is just beginning in Saskatchewan and home prices there are still affordable (average price = C$210,000).
I worked and lived in Edmonton for six weeks in the winter. Believe me that is the last place you want to live. Beutiful city, great in the summer, but the winters will make you think hell has actually frozen over.
By the time I will move there – lets say 6 month they will become un-affordable again…
I’d arther wait for NJ prices to fall – they will…. Yesterday I visited another home – Foreclosure owned by a bank. It is on the market at 36% off last sale (in may 2006). and tyhis is just listed price – what it will close at – unknown. It is also a starter cape-code in OK central NJ town. (we all know that central Jersey doesn’t have PREMIUM towns.. as it is not the center of the universe – The Great and All-Mighty North Jersey!!!)
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Feb. OFHEO home prices rise 0.6%
U.S. home prices rose 0.6% in February from the prior month, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Tuesday.
For the 12 months ending in February, prices fell 2.4%. The OFHEO index is based on repeat sales of homes mortgaged through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
For February, prices rose a seasonally adjusted 2.2% in New England, and 0.3% in the Pacific region. In the Mountain region, prices fell 0.6%. Read full report.
January’s result was revised to a price decline of 1.0% from the prior estimate of a 1.1% drop.
…
By region, OFHEO reported that for the 12 months ending in February, prices are down 9.2% in the Pacific, 3.7% in the South Atlantic, 2.4% in the Mountain area, 2.3% in East North Central, 1.5% in West North Central and 1.3% in New England.
In the Middle Atlantic, prices were flat with the year-earlier period.
Prices rose 0.6% in East South Central from the year-earlier period, and 2.3% in West South Central.
Genius at Work here…
Bank of America to exit risky mortgages
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/22/news/companies/boa.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008042210
(from the link above)
Bank of America says it will offer traditional mortgages that fit government-sponsored enterprise guidelines. It will also offer interest-only fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages that have long reset periods to lessen the likelihood of short-term payment spikes.
The Charlotte, N.C.-based bank will not originate subprime mortgages or loans that allow customers to make payments for less than the monthly interest due.
It will also greatly reduce offerings of other nontraditional loans, like those that allow for little documentation.
I can easily see this number doubling or tripling. Citigroup has more in the works. BofA just starting. Wamu going down the tubes. Bear Stearns full cuts not reflected. UBS in restructuring mode. Wachovia, Wells Fargo, RBOS, JP Morgan & Deutche barely on the radar, so waiting for the ax to fall.
Banks, Brokers Cut 49,000 Jobs as Subprime Losses Mount: Table
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aLRpZFOZ17eU
RE oil supply/demand:
Emerging Markets’ Oil Appetite to Exceed U.S. This Year
http://seekingalpha.com/article/73321-emerging-markets-oil-appetite-to-exceed-u-s-this-year
#77 hardplace: all the other firm you emntion, have all previously announced job cuts.
Hard Place(85)
I have an idea. Lets a buy a mortgage company that specializes in Subprime lending and once we take over we are gonna stop lending these types of loans.
I agree this is definitively genious at work.
If you guys think housing is too expensive either make more money or move to Arkansas.
make,
We need another question answered before we can comment on that decision.
Specifically, what did BOA stand to lose if it didn’t offer to buy them?
heavy,
What does one have to do with the other?
#84,
Anyone willing to buy my house based on the OFHEO indexes, please let me know.
grim,
If you can’t make it near the financial capital of the world, you would be best advised to move to a lower cost area. You will have less stress both financially and mentally.
Frank,
The OFHEO monthly is new, no doubt issued to compete with Case Shiller and the NAR. Quarterly releases are painfully slow, we want it now now now.
I’m glad OFHEO has gone this route, but I’d like to see a few more months worth of releases first.
If you can’t make it near the financial capital of the world
You are probably right, I never did like London anyway. I’ll miss the chips and vinegar though.
so grim ,
do i get a cookie if my new years prediction comes true? regarding hehe #88
Frank,
Housing is too expensive. So, I move to Arkansas where the median income still can not afford a median priced home, so I move to where…Somalia?
And what are we to do with the cashiers, bank tellers, retail workers who can not afford homes? Tell them to move to Arkasas or should we just not have those people living in NJ because they can not make it around the financial capital of the world.
err…I meant HeavyHitter
TJ,
Worse, what do we tell our kids?
Was nice knowing you, look forward to seeing you and the grandkids next Christmas. Again, real sorry that you aren’t able to live in the town (state even) you grew up in. C’est la vie!
3b – relative to the losses they have suffered and the reduction of deal flow the numbers are fairly benign at some of these firms. These banks are trying to raise capital and need to slash costs to maintain their capital ratios.
JPM – 100 jobs out of 180k+
BofA – 3650 jobs out of 209k+
Credit Suisse – 1500 out of 48k+
We tell our kids…
“Here is a nice downpayment for your house. Don’t worry, I’ll just HELOC myself to hell…”
“grim Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 11:10 am
make,
We need another question answered before we can comment on that decision.
Specifically, what did BOA stand to lose if it didn’t offer to buy them?”
The profits from the unusual option activity just prior to the deal being announced
Hard Place Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 11:33 am
We tell our kids…
“Here is a nice downpayment for your house. Don’t worry, I’ll just HELOC myself to hell…”
It is better than this:
I’ll just HELOC myself to hell, give you a huge downpayment, stop paying my mortgage save all money.
After that I will declare BK and move in with our kids in their new huge house…
Thats how we will solve alledged housing shortage.
Many Indian families in USA have 3 generations or more living under one roof – save on taxes, utilities, electricity and such… Single family house – well, I have big family.
Frank (59),
re:hoboken foreclosures.
Only the first 3 1/2 pages are actually for Hoboken. Although it’s kind of surprising how many there are that were entered in the last week.
heavy hitter –
If you guys think housing is too expensive either make more money or move to Arkansas.
You certainly are not a financial planner, that is horrible advice. I think the prudent thing to say would be to just rent since housing cost is expensive relative to mortgage, taxes and home up keep payments. Let the homeowner worry about all that other stuff.
Oh wait, that’s what we’ve been saying on this site for sometime now. Hang around a while, you may learn something.
Pretorious (78),
The best economic opportunity in the developed world today is in western Canada. Has anybody considered moving there instead of North Carolina or Pennsylvania?
The problem is it’s not the US, so you’re probably not allowed to work there.
“grim Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 11:31 am
TJ,
Worse, what do we tell our kids?
Was nice knowing you, look forward to seeing you and the grandkids next Christmas. Again, real sorry that you aren’t able to live in the town (state even) you grew up in. C’est la vie!”
Grim,
If the kids can’t afford to live in the town they grew up in, it probably means that home prices there went up a lot since the parents bought the family home.
It also means that the parents are sitting on hundreds of thousands of home equity. I’d rather have a lot of housing wealth than live in a place where homes are affordable.
Do you think parents in Detroit and Cleveland are celebrating the fact that their kids were raised in affordable housing markets?
hehe 104
I don’t know if you remember this but I hit the nail on the head on this one. I made over 70% on my investment in 24 hours.
#109 – It also means that the parents are sitting on hundreds of thousands of home equity.
Unless they’ve been relying on that equity as a substitute for actual wage growth and doing things like using it to pay for retirement, medical expenses, college, etc. etc.
I’d rather have a lot of housing wealth than live in a place where homes are affordable.
Ahh, I see your problem you keep mistaking debt for wealth. An easy mistake to make in these parts.
both my wife and I could not afford to buy in the towns we grew up in. I guess we arent as smart as our parents were when they were our ages.
#109 pret:I’d rather have a lot of housing wealth than live in a place where homes are affordable.
If you stand back and examine that statement, it is bizzare, and incredibly selfish.
“Hobokenite Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 11:41 am
The problem is it’s not the US, so you’re probably not allowed to work there.”
Canada has a points-based system for selecting economic immigrants. They make it a lot easier than the US for skilled workers to move into the country and work legally.
Take the test. I passed easily.
http://www.ci.gc.ca/english/immigrate/skilled/apply-factors.asp
The people who really impress me are those who live in a huge new construction house on a busy street (or in a town like Garfield). What ballers!
#102 Agreed: But I suspect the numbers for those firms may be higher than that, and if not they will be going forard.
Employees are the number one expense factor for these firms.And the easiest way to cut expenses is to cut employees.
Wall St in particular is notorious for over hiring, than over firing.
Pret,
Let’s not get into this immigration debate…
Canada has got it right and the US has got it sooooooo wrong. Thank ya Dubya!
We’re at $119.41 with $120 fast approaching….
Well since you have it so wrong on housing here Pret maybe you should move up there? Sounds like the wealthy and intelligent thing to do!
#97 grim:I’ll miss the chips and vinegar though.
And don’t forget the delightful weather.
#99 TJ,
When could bank tellers and cashiers ever afford to buy a hoome in NJ?
I would tell them to get a roommate, or a better education. We are a merit based society. You are not entitled to buy a house, you have to earn it through income.
#112tbw; Well if you really wanted a Blue Ribbon School district, you would have tried a little harder. (just kidding)
Pretorius said:
“Grim,
If the kids can’t afford to live in the town they grew up in, it probably means that home prices there went up a lot since the parents bought the family home.”
Actually, that means home prices increased relative to wage increases. This means that the future generation is expected to survive on less with more relative investment than the previous generation.
If you’re Boomer, you’re probably treading water. If you’re Gen X or Millennial, the world looks a lot bleaker.
nymex at 120 by friday?
120…Wow. And to think that someone thought it would never stay above 90. I also remember last year when Goldman was called crazy for talking about hyper oil price inflation and their $100.00/barrel prediction
The people who really impress me are those who live in a huge new construction house on a busy street (or in a town like Garfield).
Why does that upset you? The fact that someone actually wants to (or will settle to) live in a less desirable location or town?
I’ve seen lots of immigrants that have “made it” here in the good ol’ USA. They people have no desire to move away from the communities that they lived in, or their friends and family. While the decision might not make sense to you, it makes perfect sense to them.
Euro just pushed past $1.60 finally. Any bets on the next stop?
#121 hardly a hitter:You are not entitled to buy a house, you have to earn it through income.
So of course you ar against this home owner bailout right? Becasue just as you are not entitled to buy a house, you have to earn it through income. to keep that house you have to earn that right through income.
toshiro,
but will it stick at 120 or keep on truckin? i vote for truckin….
On a similar note, i guess the Gov had best get some more bread and circus out to the hoi polloi . ever hear of the export land model/import land model?
3b –
Employees are the number one expense factor for these firms.And the easiest way to cut expenses is to cut employees.
As everyone knows here, Wall St is the underpinning of the economy and housing market around here. The ones paid outsized salaries/bonuses generally come from this sector. The fat is starting to be trimmed. So far it’s been done with a small blade. Soon it will be done with a cleaver.
BC,
why are nymex oil futures at 100 or less at 3 years out? does the market really think oil will be cheaper then?
heavy hitter Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 11:57 am
#99 TJ,
“When could bank tellers and cashiers ever afford to buy a hoome in NJ?”
5/6 years ago. Easy. And with a fixed rate mortgage no less.
126: Not sure what that means, it is more about the image that the house projects opposed to the actual town. to be the richest person in the poorest town is quite impressive.
Heavy Hitter,
Hmmm. Not sure, let me ask every neighbor in the town I grew up (Toms River), of which has been unaffordable to those types of people looking to purchase since 2005.
This is a merit based society, of which I don’t disagree (at least that is what the government wants us to think), but that is another topic.
Anyway, your logic is extermely diluted. By not having affordable housing (non-gov provide) and living conditions for the greater population of NJ (ie service workers), you will force a migration out to areas of greater affordability and living conditions leaving the “wealthy” with no service workers.
This is the case now, and wasn’t 10 years ago.
I can even make a point for top college grads like myself.
But let me pose this question to you? Do you own a home now and if so, for how long?
#129 – I think it will keep moving past $120 as well; no supporting evidence, just a feeling. Logically it has to hit a ceiling somewhere though. I have no idea where that ceiling is however.
A bank teller could never afford to buy a house. I was a full time bank teller for a few months and I lived at home and after I gave my Mom the $200 rent I barely had any money at all. Not in at least 30+ years could a bank teller or a store clerk even on dual incomes afford a house. Heck they can’t even afford an legal apt., at best a illegal basement apt in a so so neighborhood. My branch was mainly house wives with construction worker husbands doing it for the benefits. Only the branch manager could afford a new american car and a house. Of course you can afford to live in the neighborhood you grew up in just move in with mom and dady.
Back then houses in my town cost 250K and bank tellers made six dollars an hour. After taxes and deductions they netted around $4 an hour so their are 2,000 work hours in a year so if they saved every cent they made and never spent a penny it would take them over 31 years of savings to reach 250K, but wait if they saved only 25% of their income it would take over 120 years of savings.
kettle [131],
The market is in backwardation, front month more expensive than back months. May, 2011 is approx $11 less than May, 2008
“You are not entitled to buy a house, you have to earn it through income.”
One of the funniest statements that I have read on this site. If this statement was true, this blog would not exist.
I’d rather have a lot of housing wealth than live in a place where homes are affordable.
I agree. We all know how important image and status is living here in North Jersey. HELOC’d out, levered up, credit cards maxed and a new import in the driveway. It’s very competitive here and we wouldn’t want to be left behind.
Gee, I just though about it… My house doubled in price since I bought it so in just a few years, my cape in my blue collar town will go for $900,000. Oh well, too bad you jealous sucker wannabes have to rent.
Gas is $3,99 for regular today at my local Exxon station. We can swing it up here for now.
But down south the rednecks who drive from exurbia cookie cutter mcmansions in their GMC 10 mile a gallon trucks on 100 mile commutes to work for their $20 an hour factory jobs are going to get beaten like a red headed step child at the gas pump.
John – In my middle of the road town, 6 years ago a 2 bedroom townhouse could be had for under $100k. Same townhouse in 2006 was $300k.
6 years ago a bank teller COULD afford to buy. Not a mansion. Not a “top train town”. But a modest home in a safe quiet neighbourhood? Yes.
8 years ago that same teller and his cashier wife could pull in some overtime and purchase a 3 bedroom house in the quiet part of Ewing for $125,000.
Hey TJ, I don’t think the average college grad can afford a decent house let alone service workers. You really need a masters in a profession like dr., dentist, accountant, MBA etc. to swing a nice house in a good neighborhood. Gone are the days when a plain old local college degree and a cubicle dweller mid managment job can get you a nice place.
http://business.theage.com.au/german-bank-goes-hard-on-sex-expenses/20080423-27wt.html
Deutche Bank tells it’s executives that they have to pay for sex. Times are tough.
141 good luck, no more, never again. In fact Chase even now hires tellers for only 19 hours a week so they and screw you out of vacation and benefits. If they need you to work more than 19 they let you but since you are coded as 19 no sick or vacation days and they boot you out the door as soon as it slows after the lunch rush. At ten bucks an hour you are making $190 a week up to maybe $300 a week with no paid days off. Good luck with affording a 100K home.
tosh,
just a personal opinion here, but i think the next sticking point will be 130, and then 150, after we break through 130. 150 will be the BIG psychological sticking point
I’m not bidding on anything until this kind of self-delusion is less prevelant:
“Homes under 500K and over 600K seem to be the ones moving lately…us poor suckers in that 500 to 600 range are the ones sitting at the moment. Another month or so, you will see that price range start to move as most are either upgrading or downsizing. The market is moving folks… be patient and let those first timers and relos. get things up and running again!”
Too many people seem to think that “other houses” are selling and “their turn” is next (and the same people are “shocked” other peoples asking prices).
Until I start seeing a lot more forums headings of “OH sh*t, oh sh*t, oh sh*t, oh sh*t, oh sh*t,” wading in is just a waste of time and emotion.
BC
i get the basic idea of backwardation, but it doesnt seem to fit the real data on future supply.
The word “realtor” was added to the Webster’s Dictionary after a request by New Jersey Realtor Rachel Storchheim Silverman in the 1960s.
John,
I would love to know how 35% of a person paycheck who makes $6.00/hr is taken out for taxes.
Back then houses in my town cost 250K and bank tellers made six dollars an hour. After taxes and deductions they netted around $4 an hour
Two earners making $6/hr could afford a 75-100K house. Of course you will not find that in inhabitable parts of NJ, but rents which rise proportionally with housing, for the most part, and will or already have made it so people like this can not afford to live here.
House prices will and have to come down for the sake of want to be homeowners and renters.
Pretorious (114),
Interesting. Looks like they’ll let just about anyone in.
John Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 12:23 pm
” I don’t think the average college grad can afford a decent house let alone service workers. You really need a masters in a profession like dr., dentist, accountant, MBA etc. to swing a nice house in a good neighborhood. Gone are the days when a plain old local college degree and a cubicle dweller mid managment job can get you a nice place.”
And only when the college grads and mid level professionals have all left, and he current occupants of all those houses find they have nobody to sell them to will people work out that rampant house inflation maybe wasn’t such a good thing.
John,
What do you consider a good neighborhood?
http://business.theage.com.au/japans-hunger-becomes-a-dire-warning-for-other-nations/20080420-27ey.html?page=1
Japan has run out of Butter!!! Why do they need butter anyway they make cheap DVDs?
If the kids can’t afford to live in the town they grew up in, it probably means that home prices there went up a lot since the parents bought the family home.
It also means that the parents are sitting on hundreds of thousands of home equity.
…and just how do all of these “house rich” parents go about cashing-in their winning lottery tickets? If their kids and their neighbors’ kids and the other kids in their town can’t afford to buy these houses, who will?
Was there a baby boom in Chatham and now all the rich kids spilling over into Denville and Parsippany pushing out all of the riff-raff?
When I made ten bucks an hour I still paid FICA, diability, unemployement, medical, dental, 401k, fed and state taxes out of my lousy ten bucks an hour. Trust me it was ugly.
So..We have two college grads from Rutgers (no offense to anyone),4 years out of school making 120K gross income and “this” is in their affordability range.
http://tiny.cc/HyVqX
Are we going to have a whole of decent college grads only able to afford Newark. And God forbid they want to have children.
TJ, a four bedroom colonial with a two car garage on a nice street with a good commute to NYC, good schools and some name recognition is now starting in the 800’s. Those homes were around $375k just eight years ago.
OT,
Just saw one of those planes with banners behind them flying up along the Hudson.
“Tibet will always be a part of China”.
TJ even better wait til the wife wants to stay home with the kids and you see what is out there on a 60K income. We talking mobile home brotha.
#157 John:TJ, a four bedroom colonial with a two car garage on a nice street with a good commute to NYC, good schools and some name recognition is now starting in the 800’s. Those homes were around $375k just eight years ago.
And just who is buying them? Because there are tons of those types of houses avaialable for sale across of all prestigious Bergen county.
Houses aren’t too expensive. People just don’t make enough money, or spend it on stuff like smokes and brews, TVs, cars, etc.
“Houses aren’t too expensive.”
Dot com wasn’t either.
There’s a difference between expensive and value.
heavy hitter Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:06 pm
“Houses aren’t too expensive. People just don’t make enough money, or spend it on stuff like smokes and brews, TVs, cars, etc.”
Thanks for the laugh. If I had been drinking something my keyboard would have been ruined.
(161),
What are you basing home values against?
Median Price vs Median Income?
or
Median Price vs opinion?
This is interesting:
Welcome to the new home of Garden State MLS’ public search engine. Currently, there are 35,666 properties advertised for sale in NJ on our site.
Ca. wasn’t overvalued either?
http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/CAPricesCrashing.html
#161, the most I could afford with my wife and I BOTH working full time jobs was $359,000. That was with over 20% down ($80,000) putting us in a mortgage of $279,000 and a monthly tax and mortgage payment of roughly $2,000 a month.
You cant get much for $350,000…even now.
Houses aren’t too expensive. People just don’t make enough money, or spend it on stuff like smokes and brews, TVs, cars, etc.
This is a dumb conversation. Two years ago, the idea of a housing bubble versus a fundamental shift in the value of homes brought about by mass gentrification and a shifting supply/demand equation was a frequent source of debate on this blog.
At the time, one could argue the jury was still out.
Today, the tide has gone out and its obvious that many of the phony rich who bought over the last several years are swimming naked. All of NJ is now considered “at risk” for serious price declines. Huge amount of inventory are just sitting on the market and the banks have withdrawn most of the silly financing. Why are we even talking about this?
“Falling shipments at United Parcel Service Inc. and FedEx Corp., which together deliver 80 percent of packages in the U.S., show the economy is in a recession and unlikely to rebound this year.”
“This is what a recession feels like,” said Steven Marco, who manages $800 million including UPS shares at Marco Investment Management LLC in Atlanta. “The trucks are not as full as they used to be.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aFS4NPtPEFhw&refer=home
What do you mean Ed, Jersey is like the 6th boro.
The Gold Coast will never be considered a part of NYC.
Ed Koch to New Jersey: I won’t go there even when I’m dead
Former New York Mayor Ed Koch says he wants to spend eternity in Manhattan.
But the outspoken politico couldn’t quite resist taking a dig at New Jersey in the process.
“I don’t want to leave Manhattan, even when I’m gone,” Koch told The Associated Press. “This is my home. The thought of having to go to New Jersey was so distressing to me.”
sorry, off topic.
Can someone recommend an attorney (in Somerset region) who is good at “For Sale by owner”, buyer side?
Usually I don’t get any response if I am talking about buying a house as this seems to be opposite to the idea of this board. But I have to buy due to my situation. Hopefully I can have some positive response this time.
Thanks.
007
“Why are we even talking about this?”
Because someone who is unwilling (or unable) to move along the path to acceptance shows up?
007,
Check your email.
The problem is it’s not the US, so you’re probably not allowed to work there.”
I thought NAFTA took care of the visa issues (duck).
F#%k Ed Koch
Thanks grim.
Rent,
I especially like the part when he suggests that consumer spending be cut back to allow for additional capital to be plowed into an asset that generates little to no economic growth.
What a formula, is this guy actually hoping for a depression?
Saw this somewhere and thought people might enjoy:
“This story reminds me of a local fellow who had his mortgage foreclosed by a national bank here in Canada. Now he had a bit of a heads up when they were coming so he simply moved the house minus the first floor and moved it to property in his name building a concrete slab this time to put it on. No it was not a mobile home or double wide but a single level bungalow, he simply braced it all then took a chain saw cutting it all around above the floor level then jacked it up and hauled it off. Imagine the banker face when he arrived at the site. Of course the Bank tried to say he stole the house but to the court all they could get him for was the property and first floor of the home which were still there,”
lisoosh, I enjoyed it.
Anything with the word “bungalow” is just naturally funny, anyway.
You know the rich get very quiet in a recession and the broke get very vocal. The end result is we start to think everyone is broke. I was at a packed party at the Waldorf last night and afterwards the w bar was packed and lot of company credit cards on the bar. Talked to lots of people and they are doing a heck of a lot better than me. One lady was telling me she is building a home in southampton, another guy was picking up a new BMW M this weekend, a third guy picked up a house with a pool and tennis court last fall and is looking forward to his first summer in the new house. Heck the last guy I was talking to is Susan Luchi’s neigbor in Garden City. However, no media coverage for last night, that is reserved for the broke people. It is positively scary how much money some people have compared to the rest of us. Heck one lady last night is having her fourth kid and she pulls down 500K a year and I know her husband is good for a good million a year. These people are going to spend the $100 to fill the tank and keep on flying and taking vacations and buying trade-up homes. The only issues is they are in the 1% club of income and the rest of us in the 99% club of income needs to figure out how to move on up.
# 131 “why are nymex oil futures at 100 or less at 3 years out? does the market really think oil will be cheaper then?”
They may be anticipating an economic collapse that shrinks demand.
# 136 ” it would take over 120 years of savings.
”
But through the magic of compounded interest it would be less, maybe 60 years.
Existing-home sales
“And we have a primer on today’s report, after the jump.”
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2008/04/business_101_existinghome_sale.html
Lets have some fun with numbers
$600,000 house in Upper Haughtyville
$10,000 yearly Blue Ribbon School property taxes
$120,000 20% Down payment from high profile Wall St Bonus job
$480,000 mortgage amount
5.9% interest rate (all those years of leasing that land rovers gave you great credit)
$2,847.06 + $833 = $3,680.39 monthly payment
Not including utilities, insurance, visits to Short Hills mall, etc
# 149 “I would love to know how 35% of a person paycheck who makes $6.00/hr is taken out for taxes.”
Between Federal Income tax, NJ income tax, social security, medicare, disability, and whatever else I may be missing, I can se it approaching 35% for a low earner. Mrs. Shore and I are well above that %.
# 175 “F#%k Ed Koch”
I can’t imagine many less appealing thoughts.
You guys. Stop already with the guessing on the net pay.
Here:
http://www.paycheckcity.com/NetPayCalc/netpaycalculator.asp
thatBIGwindow [184],
And that $600,000 house is basically a bland, worn looking 3/2 split level. I wouldn’t want people thinking that you’re getting a 4/2 CHC with a fireplace in the family room in Upper Tootyville. It ain’t happening folks. But, as I’ve been told, it’s very competitive here and if you can’t afford to live here, then one should look out of state. That’s what a professional used house guide told me.
And forget that houses prices have doubled in the span of five years while incomes went up about 16%. That is not the realtors nor the sellers problem.
#78 pretorius
Canada? I envy anyone who can pull out of the country all together and make a better living for themselves.
I have a buddy of mine that tried convincing a group of us we should consider buying a large plot of land in another country and live there. One of those places you can live like a king for $1.30 a day but I believe they are usually pretty crime ridden and you can be tossed off the land for crazy reasons. But then the places I recall him thinking would cost less than 30K for the home and land so not a bad loss if you get voted off? I would imagine health care being an issue too but you get what you pay for.
Being that the dollar has lost so much value since then those third world countries are probably going to buy parts of America instead.
Still Pret glad to hear you think outside the box.
John 180,
Look at income brackets the same way you would intelligence or any of the other feakonomics type of curves. You have a “bell curve” type distribution. Due to a number of factors you will always have the top and bottom tails of the curve, i.e the rich and the poor. A successful society has a large bulge in the middle and very small tails. Right now in NJ and the US the tails are growing and the middle is shrinking, this is bad for everyone.
#180
John,
I am working on it my friend, as I am sure the rest of us are.
If you have any tips, let me know.
#184 you left out this scenario
$400,000 fixer upper 3 bedroom house in Upper Haughtyville needs a little TLC.
$10,000 yearly Blue Ribbon School property taxes
$20,000 Down payment from mid/entry level couple recently married not making 100K between the two of them. After taxes probably 63K total takehome or $5250.00 a month in income.
$380,000 mortgage amount
5.9% interest rate (all those years of leasing that Expedition gave you great credit)
$2,135.00 + $833 = $2,966.00 monthly payment
2966 – 5250 = 2284 left over.
Not including Car Payment/expenses, Tolls, School Loans, utilities, insurance, etc
Kaboom.
Unemployment could cover the utilities, car gas, and maybe car insurance but unemployed in this scenario would put someone about 3K a month in the hole. Chews through that money put away in no time.
Translation
80K = Renter.
100K is home owner roulette.
120K is Higher stakes Roulette with pricer home and a 4k monthly hole on unemployment.
But everyone makes more than 120K right?
TBW
This interest rate for this amount does not exist, not yet anyway.
“$480,000 mortgage amount
5.9% interest rate”
John
Can money buy happiness? how many people love their 80 hr/wk job where they make 200K? some do, but do the majority? is that money worth the time away from your family and friends? historically the answer is money doesnt buy happiness (unless your client # 9)for the majority of people.
tosh
Nymex @ 120 by close??
#194
Of the people I knew making 200K working 80hrs a week or close to that amount nearly all were divorced within 3-5 years. They now work to pay alimony, child support, and don’t live in the house they still pay for.
If someone thinks infidelity well none of them had time for an affair because they were working.
Best of luck taking 40 hour job after that and surviving.
Big salaries sound nice but at what cost?
Maybe recently divorced mother with 2 kids living in a house is a catch. Her former husband foots the majority of bills.
Re 194 believe it or not it is a myth that to make a lot of money you need to work a lot of hours. It is just something of an urban myth created to make the middle class feel happy. The bond traders and stock traders I know are on the 5 pm train home everynight make 500K a year. When you are paying your dues and making peanuts you work those hours. Plus when you are at a certain level with your own office, expense account and staff guess what you are happier than when you sat in a cube working on an out of balance reconciliation drinking burnt coffee until 11pm while you know the Partner on the account is sitting in his leather chair smoking a nice cuban in his upper saddle river mansion with his drop dead looking trophy wife and a few german cars in the driveway. Yep money can’t buy you happiness but I would be happy even if I just rented it. Big companies have greatly cut back on hours over the years, even at goldman most workers are out the door by six thirty.
#196 Money is an idea. Ideas are created and multiplied
John –
Yada, yada, yada. Of course there are rich people out there, big deal. Always was, always will be. Get over it.
Problems come when for every guy taking delivery of a brand new M5, Maybach or Maserati paid for with cash, there are 10 more guys having their cars repossesed.
And as I recall, last time you swung by a dealership they were overflowing with repos.
But everyone makes more than 120K right?
In North Jersey, that is correct. I’ve been told that most towns in Northern Bergen County bleed money.
The corequisites for fitting in there are:
1) Married couples must have two children, not less, not more. And family must be fit and trim in appearance. Not tubbies or those that are hard to look at.
2) Childrens birthday parties must be held every single year and must be held at a more upscale venue – NEVER at home and NEVER with anything homemade. Food is store bought and at exclusive shops only.
3) If a pet is purchased, it must be a trendy hybred such as a puggle. No dogs that represent a blue collar image.
4) You must pronounce the letter “S” with a bit of a lisp as to sound a little haughty and educated.
5) When out for a brisk stroll at the local recreational area during the weekend, a Yankee or Red Sox baseball cap is permissible for women, provided that the blond pony tail is pulled through the back. ABSOLUTELY NO METS HAT ALLOWED. E-gads, that’s so ghetto-ish! Men shall wear tee shirts or sweat shirts with an accredited college name emblazened on the front only. Absolutely no plain looking wife beater shirts are permissible.
I’ll dig out the rest of the rules and post them at a later time.
#195 – Almost there on the May contracts which expire today. They hit $119.90
#198 – Are you on drugs?
Ah, now I understand the handle.
I know a few people in the 40/400 club, 40 hours a week and 400k salary. That is a good thing to shoot for, that is the absolute most you can make in a BS high level job without going into excessive hours. Make 200k and you are doing all the 400K guys work and make 800K and you are c-level and working around the clock. Most guys can’t hang on in the 40/400 club for too long everyone below you is trying to stab you to get your job and once the guys above you figure out what you do they are going to double your work load, fire you or automate. I remember when all trades were run through a market maker desk and these bozo just punched tickets for a few hundred thousand a year and all those floor brokers at NYSE hitting the bar at 4:15pm. They have all been wiped out. Those 40/400 jobs keep getting harder and harder to get.
Gary – #200 –
LMAO!!!!
grim/richnj: If one of you guys get a chance could you please give me the sales history and current taxes for njmls 2816338. Thanks
gary sounds like a good town to me. lots of repos yes but no Rolls, Porsche or Bently all poser lux cars like 3 and 5 bmw, c and e class and lexus junk.
3203 Those 40/400 jobs keep getting harder and harder to get.
One more reason why those 600 to 800k houses will be coming down in price.
It’s pretty interesting oil is moving higher yet all the oil services stocks are off a bit.
lisoosh [204],
lol! Hey, what can I say? How’s that truth and fiction saying go? :)
Gary – #200 – that is some really funny stuff. Sounds like you are describing Westfield….
John Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
” lots of repos yes but no Rolls, Porsche or Bently all poser lux cars like 3 and 5 bmw, c and e class and lexus junk.”
Posted the other day – a repo company in CA which is seeing tons of Bentleys.
Mortgage guys of course.
Gary –
Can we assume the kids must be academically gifted, musical prodigies who are the top goal scorers in their travelling soccer teams?
A Royal Dutch Shell PLC joint venture declared what’s known as force majeure on April and May oil delivery contracts from a 400,000-barrel-a-day Nigerian oil field due to a pipeline attack last week. The move protects the company from litigation if it fails to deliver on contractual obligations to buyers.
Most guys can’t hang on in the 40/400 club for too long everyone below you is trying to stab you to get your job and once the guys above you figure out what you do they are going to double your work load, fire you or automate.
I think that happens from the burger flippers to the CEO.
#200 yes find the rest I am going to post it to the fridge. I have a few snobs in my neighborhood with this attitude. Will be great when they read this on my fridge and it describes them.
Oh and I need to change the birthday party section a little – It IS acceptable to buy a homemade birthday cake if the maker is a little old lady who is gifted in cake design and only makes them as special favours. She was “such a find”.
lisoosh,
How can I forget the soccer!! And yes, the cake lady will do just fine. :)
#200 – yeah, I want it too. It’s really great, especially for Westfield. I think we inadvertently broke some of the rules when we moved here and now we have to work to get back into polite society. I think the commode floating in the hot tube in my front yard doesn’t help either.
btw, I went to Trader Joes for the first time this weekend to get peanut butter and bread. I brought it to work so I could eat peanut butter sandwiches instead of paying $10 for lunch (downtown NYC). I need that $10 to buy cigars instead.
Trader Joes was nice. I felt healthier just being in there. But the peanut butter is really soupy. I tried stirring it but it didn’t help much. So I examined the ingredients and it turns out they forgot to put in the corn syrup. Luckily I have my own bottle of corn syrup so I poured and little in and mixed it up and now it’s fine.
I also got a pizza from Trader Joes. That went fine.
Mitchell,
I must admit, the rest of the rules are in my head… when I “get” them, I’ll let you know. :)
http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/display.php?id=34682
Doing More With Less
In defense of creative loafing
Trader Joe’s: About all this U.S. chain shares with Germany’s Aldi Group — besides being owned by a trust created by Aldi co-founder Theo Albrecht — is its rigorous control over costs. But where Aldi carries such basics as toilet paper and canned peas, TJ’s, as it’s known, stocks eclectic and upscale foodstuffs for the wine-and-cheese set at down-to-earth prices.
It’s a phenomenally lucrative combination, analysts say. Sales per square foot are twice that of traditional supermarkets, according to the Food Institute, a nonprofit research group in Elmwood Park, N.J. The Monrovia (Calif.) company would not talk to BusinessWeek, but its Web site notes that while the 37-year-old chain quintupled its store count from 1990 to 2001, profits grew tenfold.
“What’s unique about Trader Joe’s is that there’s no competition,” says Willard R. Bishop Jr., who heads his own consulting firm in Barrington, Ill. TJ’s develops or imports many of its own products from sources it has developed over decades and sells more than 80% of them under the Trader Joe’s brand or a variant thereof: Trader José, Trader Ming, and Baker Josef are a few. In states where it can, it sells discount wine and liquor. The latest rage is its own Charles Shaw label of California varietals, affectionately known as Two-Buck Chuck for its $1.99 price tag in California (it’s $3.39 in Ohio stores).
It’s not all about value pricing. Trader Joe Co.’s products have a definite feel-good bent. The company promises that products with the TJ label won’t include genetically modified ingredients. After complaints from animal-rights activists about the way ducks are slaughtered, it stopped selling them. Ahi tuna is caught without nets, its dried apricots are unsulfured, its peanut butter is organic — and has no trans fats to boot. And what about those Ghirardelli chocolate-covered dried blueberries, $3.99 for a 10-oz tub? TJ’s notes that you can get your choco-fix and your antioxidants at the same time.
One place where TJ’s has never stinted is with its employees. Besides above-union wages and generous bonuses (pay for entry-level part-timers starts at $8 to $12 an hour; first-year supervisors average more than $40,000 a year), TJ’s contributes an additional 15.4% of each worker’s gross pay into a company-funded retirement plan.
The company got its start when Joe Coulombe was trying to figure out how to protect his three Southern California convenience stores, called Pronto Markets, from the onslaught of 7-Elevens in the 1960s. He loaded the stores up with hard-to-find gourmet items and low-priced wines, and cherry-picked food manufacturers’ discontinued and overstocked merchandise, which he peddled at steep discounts. Coulombe sold the renamed Trader Joe’s in 1979 to the family trust established by Theo Albrecht, and he retired in 1988.
Gary – #200
Should it be the Au Pair at the park with the baseball cap. She is coaching the kids in her native language on her year out from finishing school. Spanish speaking is acceptable (but not desireable), as long as she comes from Barcelona and not Guadalajara.
“even at goldman most workers are out the door by six thirty.”
John,
Investment bankers out by 6:30PM? Sounds line training for next position, unemployed.
I’m sorry to bring up a non RE question.
We have two health insurances. The provider is within network for the secondary insurance. The provider charged us $3 for a service. The primary paid the provider $1. The secondary paid $1 because the negotiated amount for the service is $2. Doctor bills us for the remaining dollar. Is this right?
By the way, can you please find me a 9-5 job that pays $500K? I will split the salary with you! I also promise to blog for you.
#200 gary:May I please add to the list
6. All school budgets must be voted YES, no questions no dissension. If you really wnat to vote no, but are afraid to, becasue soembody might find out stay home, and say you were away on business but voted absentee. And you voted yes of course.
7. Gossip is an absolute must, the more salacious the better. If some misfortune befalls someone in town, by all means offer to help or lean a shoulder to cry on, but you must bring back good juicy gossip, while pretending to care.
8. Any time something that is perceived to be negative is proposed by the town fathers claim that if that proposal is carried out we will become like the Bronx.
Also anytime there is a crime reported in the town, claim they must have been from the Bronx or perhaps Paterson.
9. If you town is looking to redevelop, insist that ther be a Trader Joe’s (if we absolutely cannot get Whole Foods) Starbucks,and exotic foreign restaurants. These restautants must also offer an otdoor cafe kind of French bistro feel. No Dunkin Donuts or Mc Donald’s or nail salons allowed.
10. If you are seen shopping in Kohl’s give each other I won’t tell if you won’t tell look, but there is no gurantee they will not tell.
11. You must take at least 2 major vacations a year, preferably to the Carribean for the Winter, so you have that bronzed look during the long cold winter.
12. Do not let you high school kids have part time employment even in the summer;people will talk.
#223 BC Bob: When I was on the muni desk at Goldman, it was 7:30 to 5:00, no lunch, over the counter market.
The Public Finance guys however were there around the clock, including week ends.
196…once Again Mitchell’s scientific research yields amaaaazing results….that all point to one thing….life really is better is North Carolina….(cept my sis still hasn’t sold her golf course home in Davidson…..)
Why are you guys comparing Median Income vs Median Price.
If the number of homes on sale is 5000, then only the median salary of top 5000 buyers matter, not the rest of the buyers. If there are less than 5000 buyers then Median Income does not matter much since supply is greater than demand.
How can I forget the soccer!!
Soccer, by the way, is the preferred sport. However, karate is also acceptable for younger children provided it’s for exercise, discipline and/or building self esteem. Football is completely unacceptable.
From Bloomberg:
SEC Examining Whether Credit-Raters Changed Policies
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is probing whether credit-rating companies changed the way they graded debt as the market for products tied to subprime mortgages boomed earlier this decade, its chairman said.
“The volume of the structured-finance deals that were brought to the credit-rating agencies increased substantially from 2004 to 2006,” SEC Chairman Christopher Cox told the Senate Banking Committee today. The regulator is looking at whether the companies “adapted their rating approaches in this environment,” Cox said.
The SEC, in response to subprime losses, may restrict companies such as Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s from doing consulting work and may ban them from grading securities they helped design, Cox said. Lawmakers asked whether raters have inherent conflicts, because they’re paid to evaluate debt by the same Wall Street firms who sell it.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, asked whether the companies “give ratings that are overly optimistic in order to obtain more business.”
PGC – I thought the smart wives hired an au pair that is a little bit chubby and slightly less blond. Bilingual babies are a definite plus though. As is sign language.
And don’t forget the Bugaboo!!
Beers can only come from obscure microbreweries.
Wines can have a screw top though as that is a bit cutting edge trendy, just as long as the label is right and Mr. Suburbia can explain the origin of the grapes.
PGC [222],
Definitely plausible but I think you’re getting a little too close to Greenwich, Connecticut with the Au Pair scenario. Here in Upper Poopyville, it’s a step down on the scale (but don’t tell them). During the week, it’s daycare central but on the weekends, it’s all mommy love for Graydon and Ellery.
#230
Hey! Nothing haughty about a good microbrew now and then!
#226 Essex
What is your mental malfunction and obsession with North Carolina? It was a generalized observation of the people I knew that worked double jobs. People Living to work instead of working to live.
No wonder your sis lives in NC. Must be to get away from you. I’m guessing she is selling to move even further away.
231
Gary,
You’re on a roll today. I LOL’d @ Graydon and Ellery. I hope you made those names up.
111 tosh
Apparently, by pret’s logic, when I get a fillup it makes me wealthy, what with gas being so expensive.
njp,
I thought you were on vacation!
gary,
What, no pony? What kind of father are you anyway.
njrebear Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 3:43 pm
“We have two health insurances. The provider is within network for the secondary insurance. The provider charged us $3 for a service. The primary paid the provider $1. The secondary paid $1 because the negotiated amount for the service is $2. Doctor bills us for the remaining dollar. Is this right?”
Don’t know if it is right, but do know that it cost more to bill and cut checks than antone actually go paid. What a racket.
Pretty interesting site.
Subprime lending
John Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Re 194 believe it or not it is a myth that to make a lot of money you need to work a lot of hours. It is just something of an urban myth created to make the middle class feel happy. The bond traders and stock traders I know are on the 5 pm train home everynight make 500K a year. When you are paying your dues and making peanuts you work those hours. Plus when you are at a certain level with your own office, expense account and staff guess what you are happier than when you sat in a cube working on an out of balance reconciliation drinking burnt coffee until 11pm while you know the Partner on the account is sitting in his leather chair smoking a nice cuban in his upper saddle river mansion with his drop dead looking trophy wife and a few german cars in the driveway. Yep money can’t buy you happiness but I would be happy even if I just rented it. Big companies have greatly cut back on hours over the years, even at goldman most workers are out the door by six thirty.
JJ: You are mixing some facts with some crap, you use quite specific examples, and draw an inference across a complete population. I can’t really endorse what you are saying.
Ultimately, there are “special skills” (interpersonal or analytic as an example) that allow a unique worker to “make rain” or “innovate”.
It is another way of saying that there comes a point where you cannot work harder in certain situations, you can only work more effectively.
If you have the right salesperson, you cannot replicate a one hour sales appointment with an entire month of 70 hour weeks. If you have the unique analytic ability, you cannot create the same shrewd idea with an entire month of 70 hour weeks.
These people simply do not have to work as hard. However, just because you happen to be exposed to many of them in your work and social circles should not imply that they are everywhere or even large in number.
In reality, you come off more as a profane poser than anything else.
“Apparently, by pret’s logic, when I get a fillup it makes me wealthy, what with gas being so expensive.”
patient,
While the house is losing value every day, the full tank of gas, in the garage, is appreciating. Hopefully, a full tank?
Sybarite Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:02 pm
#230
“Hey! Nothing haughty about a good microbrew now and then!”
Absolutely true! I’m a fan myself. Question is – how obscure is it and how much do you tell people how obscure it is and the story of how you discovered it?
Sybarite,
And if the cloud bursts, thunder in your ear
You shout and no one seems to hear
And if the band you’re in starts playing different tunes
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon
It’s probably the eight cups of coffee I had today. Yes, it’s all coming from my sick head today. :)
Gary #231 – If an au pair is no good, how about an exchange student? Who speaks three languages and wants to share her knowledge of gourmet cuisine?
grim [237],
What, no pony? What kind of father are you anyway.
That’s the next move… when we move to Greenwich, James. ;o
Heavy Hitter is a Randian troll — and not a very good one, at that.
3B,
SLD $415,000 12/12/2003
Tax: $6,706
#241 LOL
Buy gas one week and sell it back to the station the next?
or
Buy up a big tank and a few weeks later stand on the corner with a cardboard sign $3.79 a gallon when the stations are selling it for $4.00.
Gary 200
Do you live in westfield???? That description was spot on. Wow.
lisoosh [244],
Acceptable. I hear the lad Graydon loves cooking, so it’s a perfect fit. Come to think of it, he likes fashion, too. Gee…. you don’t suppose that child is a little “funny”, do you?
240:
And, frankly, I cannot believe that John encounters all that many of them, other than to ask whether they want make that Grande a Venti for only a buck more …
#248 Rich: Thanks as always
chicagofinance Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Ultimately, there are “special skills” (interpersonal or analytic as an example) that allow a unique worker to “make rain” or “innovate”.
It is another way of saying that there comes a point where you cannot work harder in certain situations, you can only work more effectively.
If you have the right salesperson, you cannot replicate a one hour sales appointment with an entire month of 70 hour weeks. If you have the unique analytic ability, you cannot create the same shrewd idea with an entire month of 70 hour weeks.
Chi: Well said. It is annoying to constantly hear that anyone who has a strong salary works 80 hours weeks and neglects their kids. I’m not saying these normal hour / high salary jobs exist in large numbers, but they do exist.
Sales is a great example.
I would add to “fitting in”
Children may only be transported in Bugaboo Cameleons. Bugaboo Frogs are very, very last year, and must immediately be donated to goodwill or sold via craigslist to Morris Country wannabes. Acceptable alternatives to Camaleons are swank-looking euro strollers imported via http://www.limitededitioneurostrollers.fr
John
My buddy makes 750K to work 40 hrs/wk with three months vacation. Admittedly that’s kinda rare – every headhunter in town mentions his name within 5 minutes of the start of any consultation.
daddyo,
Very Good! lol!
I said most workers at Goldman not Ibankers. Used to be years ago everyone stayed late whether you needed to or not. Times have changed I remember going to 7pm to 10 pm charity parties downtown with my solomon brother friends and at 10 pm when we were headed out they went back up to their desks to work a few more hours.
Mitchell [248],
Maybe the homeowner can barter with the town, pay taxes with unleaded gas?
Gary #250 – I don’t think Graydon is “funny” at all. And even if he was it would make him “unique”. After all, they are very sophisticated and open minded people. Actually, they should enroll him at CIT or Parsons. Nothing like a famous chef or designer in the family.
I was also thinking that learning Spanish in Guadelajara is probably OK as long as they spend $20,000 to actually go there and take pictures of themselves “helping” the poor people become more self sufficient. What do you think?
I like this game WAY too much.
#231 lisoosh: Gary is right. and it is called pre-school, not day care. Day care is for poor people.
Also you must have a house cleaner, even if you have a stay at home spouse. And you absolutely must have a lawn service, even if your property is 50X100
I only know a lot of well to do people as I try to only mingle with people above me. I was at a business networking party at the waldorf last night and I had people chasing to talk to me while I was running from them to talk to the people who were running from me. Kinda like Marathon man.
I wan that 750K 40 hr a week job. What profession is that and what skills does it require?
One thing I did learn last night is the next big thing is GAAP to IFRS conversion projects and I should brush up on that. There is a tip for anyone looking to make some extra coin.
Merrill is selling at least $300 million of perpetual preferred shares that yield about 8.625 percent.
Now I see why people go into debt over health care. Wife just got back to work from maternity leave and looked at the charges to her health account. $70K for just the birth for the twins. Wow. What the hell do you do if you don’t have insurance and/or money to pay that? I guess you put it on plastic and pay it back for the rest of your life.
#258 John: I worked at Goldman for may years in the 80’s through the end of the 90’s, and at 5:00 PM, the elevators were packed. Trading sales people and many secrataries/administrative wer gone by 5:00PM.
The bankers, and a lot of the Ops people (before automation) would stay late. But back in the day by 6:00 PM Wall St was dead (before people started living down here)
3b #260 – You are right. I stand corrected.
lisoosh ,
Thanks! The worst part is trying to reach my provider. After hours on the phone an automated answering service keeps trying to assure us that our call is very important :(
200 gary
That’s a riot. I am so in repeated violation!
In addition to what I said in #259, one of the things they do on their socially consious trips to Central America is help the locals dig ditches and build houses. Cause of course, there is a severe shortage of cheap labor in Central America.
Actually, probably true, as all the able bodies Central Americans are over here digging our ditches and building our houses.
Strange world.
{…Sad…}
Lost my bidding war today. The landlord is choosing the other tenant to sign a lease with.
Nobody here buy auto parts from evil Napa, kay? 4me? :)
I’m gonna go home and get drunk and cry into my pillow.
Last baby cost me 100K, wife was on bed rest in hospital for a few weeks and then the birth. 30 nights in a hospital is an ugly bill. I paid $200 bucks and the insurance company picked up the rest. Most spanish people near me skip pre-natal care and show up in emergency room when they are crowning with some fake ss and then hit the bricks as soon as they can. In America nobody pays their debts, I am pretty sure that is in our consitution. Heck we swiped our whole country from other people.
John Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Merrill is selling at least $300 million of perpetual preferred shares that yield about 8.625 percent.
JJ: do you have an opinion? I’m try to talk to a guy who is overloaded with C out of buying it. He is panting about the coupons he can clip, my attitude is F- it. Note, not cumulative and dividends are qualified. Does the thing have a call?
I was also thinking that learning Spanish in Guadelajara is probably OK as long as they spend $20,000 to actually go there and take pictures of themselves “helping” the poor people become more self sufficient. What do you think?
lisoosh, sounds a little too Greenwich but you nailed the MO. And 3b, yes, you got the whole BC thing down.
198 heavy
“Money is an idea. Ideas are created and multiplied”
That sounds like exactly the sort of brain-dead platitude I only hear from the deadbeat losers who find the late-night get-rich-quick ads compelling.
You know the type: the same sort of person who imagines himself to be a Player, a Very Important Person, a Man About Town, a Captain of Industry.
In other words, the sort of person who trolls blogs under a name like “Heavy Hitter”.
Maybe tomorrow you can call yourself “Big Swinging D*ck”.
Now I see why people go into debt over health care.
The worst part of it is that you will get run over the coals by the hospital if you have no insurance. Our daughter spent 2 days in the hospital with an infection requiring IV antibiotics. The bill was 10k. Once it went through the insurance company, the bill was cut down to $3k (the fees they pre-negotiate with the insurance co.). Insurance paid all but $100 (my share).
A non-insured person would be expected to pay the full $10k. hospitals make most of their money from the non-insured that have the ability (even if just barely) to pay.
“Why oil could hit $180 a barrel”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/WhyOilCouldHit180DollarsABarrel.aspx?page=1
About 75K was our bill. One week in the hospital after birth. Our insurance is not all that great. We may end up coughing couple of grand.
All this talk about High Income Jobs makes me wonder,
Why aren’t folks trying to become self made enterpreneur, but just trying to get on some groovy job wagon? Whatever happened to independent, innovative, risk taking spirit?
230 ‘soosh
Now you’ve gone too far. No one should ever be criticized for how they go about loving booze. We have so little on this earth.
276 BC Bob
More like “Oil will hit 180 a barrel”…
I think we’re not going to see any slowing until we hit the 150 mark.
“A non-insured person would be expected to pay the full $10k. hospitals make most of their money from the non-insured that have the ability (even if just barely) to pay”
not sure if this is totally true?
I would suspect that there are more people than without insurance in the hospitals and they know it will get paid.
Unlike the uninsured, there just isn’t asy many,
and the key thing to remember, the hospitals will “negotiate” the bill down to that 3k, and dumbass uninsured patient thinks the hospital “cut them a deal”. See what I am saying?
and..
The megotiation has to be initatiatd by the uninsured patient. The ones that get really screwed, and the ones that keep there mouths shut and bend over and take what people tell them at face value.
There is a lingo in pricing of healthcare, and it goes like this:
“throw it against the wall & see what sticks”
that is why if you blokes have medical bills, I suggest you negotiate it down to the lowest amount or tell them YOU WILL WALK otherwise.
Forget credit, if you can’t pay, your credit is already shit.
words from me,
SAS
Well Wamu, Sov, CIT are all paying in the eights on prefs so the Merril thing is in the ball park. I know it is plain old interest income but if we get a democrat in the white house it won’t matter. The ML thing is like chrysler in 1992, locking in a high rate turned out to be a genus move but back then it was a crap shoot. Prefs are all so differenct you really have to read the fine print. Other perfs like SOVPRB are trading below their par value and are redeemed in a few years. The perpet thing is great but if you can lock in 8% on one that is 20% below par you get to double down. I have to read up on the ML thing.
JB [277]
NASD. FINRA? I never mentioned one word about a stock, commodity, currency nor a future.
#275 you can negotiate with the hospital just like the insurance companies do.
I’m sure we all see outrageous bills from the hospital and the insurance company only pays a fraction of the costs we think they do.
One big scam to keep the costs of insurance high. Probably a tax writeoff scam for both.
Hospital says we had to take a 60K loss on that 100K bill we sent the insurance company and the insurance company paid only 40K of a 100K bill. All you ever see is the 100K bill never what was really paid.
Probably why a lot of people go oversees for surgeries. 1/5th the cost and you get treated like your in a 5 star hotel. Im talking India where all the doctors come from anyhow.
Fund Spy
The Best and Worst 529 College-Savings Plans
By Marta Norton | 04-16-08 | 08:00 AM
Good news: 529 college-savings plans continue to get better. Several years ago, many were high-cost messes. Since then, some have been spruced up and others have been shut down. The important thing is that more people using these vehicles to save for college are getting a good deal.
[edit]
Without further ado, here is this year’s list of the best and worst 529 college-savings plans, which has changed significantly from last year.
The Best 529 College-Savings Plans
Best 529 College Savings Plans
Illinois Bright Start College Savings Program OppenheimerFunds Inc.
Maryland College Inv Plan T. Rowe Price
Virginia CollegeAmerica* Virginia (American Funds)
Virginia Education Savings Trust Virginia
Colorado Scholars Choice College Savings Program* Legg Mason, Inc.
* Broker Sold
Maryland College Investment Plan
Managed by T. Rowe Price, this direct-sold option remains a favorite for investors in search of solid actively managed funds. The age-based portfolio includes top-tier funds, including the well-diversified T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income (RPSIX), a Fund Analyst Pick in the multisector-bond category. The plan has a sensible split between value and growth strategies and also includes plenty of mid- and small-cap exposure. Investors can customize their plans with the help of five static portfolios. Low fees round out the appeal here: The plan’s portfolios range from 68 basis points to 97 basis points in annual asset-based fees.
Virginia Education Savings Trust and Virginia CollegeAmerica 529 Savings Plan (broker-sold)
We also consider the direct-sold Virginia Education Savings Trust and Virginia’s advisor-sold CollegeAmerica best in class. The Education Savings Trust offers an appealing collection of stellar active managers and proven index offerings in its age-based option, including Vanguard, Templeton, and Capital Research and Management (aka, the American Funds). It also boasts a collection of single-fund choices that investors can pull together for ample diversification, such as a REIT index, an inflation-protected securities fund, and an international fund. Investors don’t pay a big price tag for that flexibility and diversification, either: Total annual asset-based fees clock in between 31 basis points and 57 basis points. Meanwhile, CollegeAmerica remains a favorite for its broad assortment of excellent American Fund mutual funds spanning many asset classes and strategies. This broker-sold option also is low-priced, costing investors anywhere between 65 basis points and 1.10% in annual asset-based fees for A shares. (Remember, sales charges are layered on top of these fees.)
Colorado Scholars Choice College Savings Program (broker-sold)
Colorado’s Scholars Choice College Savings Program remains our other favorite for investors going the advisor route. We like the sensible split between growth and value strategies. Investors have a few static portfolios at their disposal as well, which allows for some customization. The primary draws, however, are reasonable expenses and a star-studded lineup of managers, including Bill Miller, small-cap maven Chuck Royce of Royce Funds, and impressive bond squads from Western Asset Management. Miller’s Legg Mason Value (LMVTX) has taken it on the chin in recent years, causing some to question Miller’s expertise. We think Miller has a good shot at rebounding, however. Moreover, while that fund plays a large role early on in the age-based portfolios, it doesn’t have much impact later on, so those approaching college haven’t had to swallow much of its recent losses.
Similar to the Utah Educational Savings Plan, the College Savings Plan of Nebraska, a member of the best list last year, is still great choice for the college savers going the direct route. Cheaper plans nudged it off the list this year, but investors can still find excellent funds, ample diversification, and plenty of flexibility for a reasonable price here.
Worst 529 College Savings Plans
Ohio Putnam CollegeAdvantage* Putnam Investment Management
Mississippi Affordable College Savings Program TIAA-CREF
Mississippi Affordable College Savings Program* TIAA-CREF
New York 529 College Savings Program Upromise
Nebraska AIM College Savings Plan* Union Bank (AIM)
* Broker Sold
[edit]
New York 529 College Savings Program
We’re bothered by New York’s 529 College Savings Program’s lack of diversification. The direct-sold plan is moderately priced and relies on solid Vanguard index funds, but it doesn’t provide investors with any international exposure. Not only does that mean that the plan is missing the gains made in foreign markets, it also has no buffer when the U.S. market turns down.
Grim,
who do you use to for your webpage?
not yahoo, correct?
I’d like to start my own webpage for my writings (free downloads).
any tips?
thanks,
SAS
[281],
I never want to get in front of a freight train.
277 – What? No one from the NAR is spying on you?
BC Bob,
ye ;)
we were spot on about that 100/crude.
but I didn’t see $120 coming.
yikes..
SAS
sas,
I use a company called WiredTree to do my hosting. They offer fully managed services, so they take care of monitoring and upgrading my server for me. I use them because they were one of the only few that could handle my traffic (at a reasonable price).
If you just want to set up a basic blog, I’d suggest using:
http://www.blogger.com
You can set up your own blog for free. I started on blogger and it worked out just fine.
277 – What? No one from the NAR is spying on you?
I do get Weichert, Coldwell, Cendant, and Realogy traffic on a daily basis. Most small offices use Cable/FIOS/DSL, so they just get lumped together.
[200] Gary,
Too funny, and I was looking at houses in Westfield because I heard it wasn’t as bad as that.
What about a Phillies cap? Can’t get the spouse to wear my Sox cap. Little Nom will wear one though.
Will I be banned for driving a Corolla? Runs better than my A6.
Will all of the above mean my au pair can’t talk to the other au pairs?
Nom
JB,
Where’s that list? I wanted to show somebody.
[289] sas,
Boone Pickens called this one too, I believe.
236 sybarite
We are! All the Patients are here in beautiful NOLA. I am sitting in a garden surrounded by flowers, drinking Newcastle after a long day at the Audubon Zoo. Tomorrow, the Aquarium.
We’ve got some interesting RE observations from NOLA which we’ll poat later, along with some pics I’ll send later.
Yesterday was lunch at Alpine in the courtyard and Sunday was an old-school crawfish boil at Mrs. Patient’s brother’s house (he also fried up some oysters, shrimp and catfish. Yum!
Maybe I get a gig down here and don’t come back.
Uninsured?
It’s NOT true you pay full boat.
We took a hit for about $29,000 for 14 days in St Peters, New Brunswick about 10 years ago. Husband’s lung collapsed out of the blue, while he was singing in the shower…(not kidding)
1. Apply for charity care. It’s a gradual scale and you can have some relief even if you make 30K/year.
2. Call every provider that sends a bill. Tell them you are self-insured and would like to know if they offer any discounts.
***WE were granted about $23,000 in discounts or outright writeoffs ***
We paid the rest over 2-ish years, at $250.00/month. This was to the surgeon who gifted us about 5K off a $9800 bill.
ASK ASK ASK.
BC,
Email
249 daddyo
A crew of us do, it seems (mostly renters, it seems).
T Boone did call $150 a barrel about a month ago
Patient
Enjoy! Hello to Mrs. Patient and Family.
And I’m still jealous!
“T Boone did call $150 a barrel about a month ago’
potter,
He also got short somewhere in the 90’s? Subsequently, he reversed course.
259 ‘soosh
You forgot RISD
It’s NOT true you pay full boat.
Unless you know better, you do pay full boat.
My friend just went through this. He had to go to the Hackensack ER one day before the insurance from his new job kicked in. He got a $6k bill for a broken ankle. He argued and all the hopital would offer was a year of interest free financing. He threatend to sue and they backed down and cut the bill.
NJ has one of the highest self pay markups inthe country:
http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2007/anderson_hospital_charges.html
grim,
Can I get the listing history on MLS 2506909..
Thanks
John
“I wan that 750K 40 hr a week job. What profession is that and what skills does it require?”
Profession: Lawyer
Skill: executive employment law/negotiation.
281 sas
““throw it against the wall & see what sticks””
If that one gets old, you can always try:
Throw it out on the stoop and see if the cat licks it up.
Gary cracks me up.
I keep getting a visual of Gary as Michael Douglas in “Falling Down”
njpatient
i don’t imagine. I am
292 Nom
It’s that bad.
300 lost
Cheers!
296 spam is right. Not everyone is a monster. Do some work – it ain’t a great position to be in, and you have zero leverage, but you’d be surprised how far you get.
When our son was born 7 weeks early I couldn’t believe the bills. In Australia they were charging us $1,200 a day for his bed alone. We were told he was going to be in for 6 weeks. We had to pay as we went since our health ins was based in the US . He got released in 2 weeks but our total was still over 40k and it took months for our insurer to pay us back. We were still out over 10k since it was out of network.
# SG Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 8:33 am
# thatBIGwindow Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 7:35 am
I believe most people here want a recently updated 3-4 bedroom, 2 bath house in a Chatham type town for around $320,000
I would be OK, if prices were at 1999 + 4% to 5% appreciation every year after that. For the house sold for $300K in 1999, I would gladly pay $410K. At the worst, considering interest rates went down from 8% to 6%, on can imagine upto $450K.
Not the current asking prices of $600K.
as a buyer, i agree with this. as a realist, too. As a realist in current america?
I’m more interested in Grim’s take on this. What say you?
njpatient Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:59 pm
230 ’soosh
“Now you’ve gone too far. No one should ever be criticized for how they go about loving booze. We have so little on this earth.”
I hang my head in shame.
What is RISD?
Another good buy under $10: Santa Christina
Compliments of:
Pat’s Cheapo Bargains
She aint Sally’s, but she’s workin on it.
How do you like my new logo?
It was full bodied, but not short (at least not as short as I am.)
The flavors lasted. None of that “full of flavor, then where did it go” nonsense. I call those: The “ten second lover” wines.
Christina was a cheap date, but she put out.
Well, approx 1 month ago we heard Thain tout that Merill would not need to raise additional capital?
“April 22 (Bloomberg) — Merrill Lynch & Co., the third- biggest U.S. securities firm, raised $9.55 billion by selling bonds and preferred shares after writing down the value of $6.5 billion of assets.”
“The firm sold $7 billion of senior unsecured notes today in its biggest debt offering, luring investors with yields over Treasuries as much as triple what it paid a year ago. Merrill also issued $2.55 billion of perpetual preferred shares that yield 8.625 percent, its largest sale of the securities.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axqDCKqLjbzA&refer=home
Oh, sorry, J.B.
I got my blogs mixed up. Thought I was on wino.
BC,
Merrill’s Thain Says Firm Doesn’t Need More Capital
April 3 (Bloomberg) — Merrill Lynch & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Thain said the world’s biggest brokerage doesn’t need more funds from outside investors, after speculation that the company needed capital sent the shares down almost 15 percent this year.
Thain, 52, told Japan’s Nikkei news service that New York- based Merrill has “plenty of capital.” His comments were confirmed by company spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim.
soosh (212)-
I like taking my band of thugs to play soccer in places like Brigadoon. Even the fields their U8 teams use are polyturf. Ridiculous.
Once you can clip one of those little pansies with a nice, “professional” foul, they fold up real fast.
BTW, did you catch the last Old Firm derby over the weekend? Absolute classic. Just maniacal pace from beginning to end, and the game ended in a bench-clearing brawl. The FA is going to give multiple suspensions on both sides…and, Celtic/Rangers go at it again this Sunday!
# 222 “Should it be the Au Pair at ”
The world needs more au pairs.
JB[319],
Not even a month ago. Are they all such atrocious liars or are events unraveling at breakneck speed? Probably some combination.
Clinton locks up PA … now, it’s time to persuade the stupid superdelegates that she’s the one that can beat McCain
John, 180
And it was all possible through laying off a few hundred cube-dwellers and scheduling the offshoring of the company’s operations to China and customer service to India. Its good times, drink up dahling!
You folks want to talk high medical bills? I got all of you beat so far. My father spent 2 weeks in South Nassau, 1 week in Cornell, and 10 days in Columbia Presbyterian (4 days in the ICU). He needed (and received) an organ transplant.
Total cost: over $1 Million.
My parents had to pay around $80,000 for their share. Sold Dad’s pristine M-Roadster that he paid cash for, and refi’d the house.
bru,
I wish him the best.
Someone seems to be desperately trying to rent out one of the condos in my building. Even reduced the rent they were asking recently.
Oddly enough, it’s for sale as well.
At 200x rent I might add.