Preliminary April sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey (GSMLS) is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 500, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only April sales, 2001 to 2008 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The fifth graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The sixth graph displays the year over year change in sales on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays the absorption rate (not seasonally adjusted), in months:
(click to enlarge)
The following map is from Fannie May and displays the change in home prices from the second quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2008. Fannie Mae says that New Jersey home prices have fallen 8.1%:
(click to enlarge)
The following map is from Zillow and displays an estimate of the percentage of recent purchasers (2005-2008) who are “underwater”:
(click to enlarge)
Frist!
Sales rose!!! Shwoo!! Nothing to see here – move along.
Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota and Utah are immune!
It’s all about location, kids!
Hey – in that last map, what’s that angry red color all over Brigadoon? Does that mean it’s a “hot” market?????????
That 5 year trend line, graph # 4, was just obliterated. It didn’t just test that support, it’s like like a knife thru butter. Once the technicals and fundamentals align, it’s good night Irene. It’s gonna be a long walk home.
This is the post of the (and every) month for many of us.
Thanks for putting in the effort, Grim.
grim – what RaggedJohn said. With emphasis!!
Dear Realtors,
What you’re looking at here is real data; not rhetoric, no sales pitches and no manipulative tactics. This is nuts and bolts, meat and potatos data. It’s not a colored brochure that hides reality in attempt to bilk and fleece people.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask as I’m sure one of our briliant and insightful regular posters here can assist you. Most here hold graduate level degrees and would gladly break it down for you in terms you can understand.
njpatient Says:
May 6th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Hey – in that last map, what’s that angry red color all over Brigadoon? Does that mean it’s a “hot” market?????????
njp: I just e-mailed a guy with whom I used to work about 5 years ago. He switched over to real estate and was based in “The Brig”.
I just received a bounce-back on an e-mail…..
Gary…
i dont think you need a graduate level degree to analyze this one!!!
a realtor puts ‘food on the table’ by selling homes, they will spin data any which way they can to lure unsuspecting clients to ‘BUY NOW BUY NOW’ – it has never been a better time to buy!!! get in before market takes off again since you know how it was so unaffordable these past few years – your chance to own your own home will only come around in another five years again so ‘BUY NOW BUY NOW’
most folks on this blog know where prices should be for the market to pick up again – and by pick up, i mean the usual 4 – 6 percent per year and not the 20 percent jumps that got us here in the first place
CAIBC
It has begun.
I think we have a long way to go before the bottom.
How will NAR and the eCONomists sping this one?
UM
Now can we pick the bridges off of SI and send it away? Please?
This time next year is going to be a great time to lowball some bag holders. I cannot wait.
Booooooya (weak attempt of a boooya bob)
Does anyone have information on this townhouse complex in Cliffside Park (10 Washington Place)? I couldn’t find recent sales on the tax records because it is new construction.
Thanks in advance.
bts
Listen up you greedy grubbin bagholing sellers.
It’s payback time. Real Estate prices are being rolled back faster then a drunk in one of John’s stories.
Let em burn.
I miss Booya Bob
9 chi
“I just received a bounce-back on an e-mail…..”
That’s gonna leave a mark.
13 lost
First we should put a tent over it and charge everyone $50 to get out.
17Patient
I go free because it’s my idea to get rid of it. :)
18 lost
without question.
Hey – your rep can’t even hold his liquor (a cardinal sin!).
“Staten Island Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) was arrested last Wednesday night for drunk driving with a blood alcohol level over twice the legal limit. “
there’s more – Mrs. Fossella can’t be happy:
http://tinyurl.com/6rrusq
The Extreme Makeover house that was for sale in Camden is off the market:
http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NEWS01/80506030
19 & 20 Patient
He’s just a d!psh!t.
They are all worthless out here. They talk about the area of St. George like its going to be the next Hoboken. They have no idea. So they build condos that aren’t selling because they price them like it is Hoboken. No one is paying 600k to live in SI- especially not in that neighborhood.
22 Let me rephrase- The yuppie/trendy types they are trying to attract will not pay 600K to move to SI. The Tony Soprano wannabes have no problem doing that on the other side of the island.
the ballpark is pretty, though…
#22 Most people would pay that money to get off SI.
24 I’m not a baseball fan so I really don’t care. I may go to my former high school’s graduation which will take place there. It may be the first and only time I’ll go. With the possible exception of the drive in movies they’re doing in the parking lot.
#20 Holy cellulite.
25 Bairen
If that was my budget for a home I wouldn’t be spending it in SI.
#11 barien:I think we have a long way to go before the bottom.
Looks to me like we may get there rather quickly.
I wonder why there is no data for Bergen. That is discrimination!
#28 I dislike SI so much.
sigh….
I am buying a house in mercer county, no data…….
I guess it is declining , too
#29 3b
You maybe right. California dropped about 30% YOY. With the higher lending standars and layoffs on Wall St and Pharma it could happen here too.
30
You can’t have a true hatred for SI unless you’ve lived there. Ask Toshiro.
lost (30) – Former Islander (Tottenville). Without bridges, the island would sink.
Wag
My sympathies.
That would work for me.
From the AP:
Housing picture worsens as Fannie sees price drop
The outlook for the housing market darkened further Tuesday as the nation’s largest buyer of home mortgages said it racked up more than $2 billion in quarterly losses and forecast a steeper drop in home prices this year.
If Fannie Mae’s prediction proves true, the real estate woes could further shake the confidence of consumers already stung by rising food and fuel prices, and an anemic job market.
Home foreclosures are accelerating around the country, adding to the glut of unsold properties and further depressing prices. As a result, a growing number of homeowners are saddled with loans that outstrip the value of their houses.
“I think that right now we are in the belly of the cycle,” Fannie Mae’s president and CEO, Daniel Mudd, said during a conference call with analysts.
Mudd said home prices fell in the first quarter “faster than anyone anticipated” and that the company foresees a decline of 7 percent to 9 percent for the year, compared with earlier forecasts of a 5 percent to 7 percent drop.
I need to keep up more with my Chicago news….
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3384651
topic from last thread (re: using up resources at a fast clip vs not wanting to live like tibetan monks)– i can’t find the article that made me a fangirl, but i *think* this book is by the same guy… it certainly is the same theory… http://www.mcdonough.com/cradle_to_cradle.htm
i think the only way we’ll escape mass-bad-things-happening is by some people thinking the group’s way out of it… and then making it worthwhile for the rest of the group to follow with a carrot not a stick.
btw, new favortite quote: “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” (Charles Darwin)
I like that NY Metro “Ring of Fire” chart.
Booya Bob, Where Art Thou?
#36 I think FNMa is being optimistic.
When’s Fannie going to balance thier books from a few years ago? I thought they got a reprieve with the bubble busting.
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alia 38
my opinion: dont wait for the fearless scientist to save the day. he’s not showing up as he got downsized and his job outsourced to india. he was smart and found a secluded little corner of the earth for him and his family
perhaps a better model is the dark ages.
here is an interesting hypothesis:
Thomas Homer-Dixon [5] demonstrates that a falling energy return on energy invested in the Later Roman Empire was one of the reasons for the “Dark Age” collapse of the Western Empire in the fifth century CE. In “The Upside of Down” he suggests that EROEI analysis provides a basis for the analysis of the rise and fall of civilisations. Looking at the maximum extent of the Roman Empire, (60 million) and its technological base the agrarian base of Rome, the energy return on energy invested was about 1:12 per hectare for wheat and 1:27 for alfalfa (giving a 1:2.7 production for oxen). One can then use this to calculate the population of the Roman Empire required at its height, on the basis of about 2,500-3,000 calories per day per person. It comes out roughly equal to the area of food production at its height. But ecological damage (deforestation, soil fertility loss particularly in southern Spain, southern Italy, Sicily and especially north Africa) saw a collapse in the system beginning in the 2nd century, as EROEI began to fall. It bottomed in 1084 when Rome’s population, which had peaked under Trajan at 1.5 million, was only 15,000.
if that theory is right we are hosed. our oil based society peaked at about 30:1 in the 50’s and we are currently at about an average of 15:1. These are guestimates, i havent checked these numbers lately.
“Does that mean it’s a “hot” market?????????”
As in hot from a series of accidential fires?
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From Bloomberg:
Vallejo, California City Officials Vote to File for Bankruptcy
Vallejo, California’s city council voted to go into bankruptcy, saying the city doesn’t have enough money to pay its bills after talks with labor unions failed to win salary concessions from fire fighters and police.
The city council’s unanimous decision makes the San Francisco suburb the largest city in California ever to file for bankruptcy and the first local government in the state to seek protection from creditors because it ran out of money amid the worst housing slump in the U.S. in 26 years.
The city of 117,000 is facing ballooning labor costs and declining housing-related tax revenue that have left it near insolvency. The city expects a $16 million deficit for the coming fiscal year that starts July 1. Under bankruptcy protection, city services would keep running. It would freeze all creditor claims while officials devise a plan for emerging from bankruptcy.
“Nobody wants bankruptcy but there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of options left,” said city councilwoman Joanne Schivley. “We are going to be out of money by June 30. It’s all a numbers game now.”
If I vote and then Gracie votes from the same address, does it count? We don’t want to cheat.
I’m not sure the Hudson County Rule applies here..
Vote early, vote often!
http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20080507_Harried_homeowners_seek_out_help.html
“And younger, middle-class borrowers who used exotic or subprime loans to buy more house than they could afford are asking for help in growing numbers…
A check of properties listed for March sheriffs’ sales in the region found few outside the $75,000-to-$350,000 range, middle-class territory. To try to cap foreclosure rates, the states have set up homeowner-rescue programs…
What troubles the Reinvestment Fund’s Goldstein is that 22.2 percent of the subprime ARMs originating last year in the city were delinquent by year’s end.”
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Pending Home Sales Probably Fell Again in March
Fewer Americans probably signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in March for the second consecutive month as falling prices and tougher loan rules discouraged buyers, economists said before a report today.
The index of pending home resales fell 1 percent after a 1.9 percent drop in February, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 30 economists. A government report may show worker productivity grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the slowest pace in a year.
The glut of unsold properties is driving down home values, while rising defaults on subprime mortgages have prompted lenders to restrict access to credit, representing more hurdles for buyers. The slump in residential real estate may persist for much of the year, hurting economic growth.
“The housing market continues to remain frozen,” said Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAGlobal Inc. in New York. “People are not quite willing to test the water.”
The National Association of Realtors will release the figures on signed purchase agreements, or pending home sales, at 10 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a drop of 4 percent to an increase of 1 percent.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/business/07lightstone.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1210155515-jTo1qY+XpyPh7RXkKe77Lg
It raises a red flag for a company such as Lightstone that grew very fast over the last couple of years that they are finding properties that they might not want to keep backing going forward,” Mr. Innaurato said.
From HousingWire:
More Than Half of 2006 Vintage Now Underwater, Zillow Says
Home prices posted their worst quarterly performance in over a decade during the first quarter, according to a report released Tuesday morning by real estate information Web site Zillow.com. More than half of those who purchased a home in 2006 now owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth, the company said — surely ominous news for mortgage execs fretting over the potential for so-called borrower “walk-aways.”
Home values in the first quarter of 2008 fell 1.6 percent from the fourth quarter and 7.7 percent from the year-ago quarter, marking the most significant year-over-year decline in the past 12 years, Zillow said.
The company’s own index of median housing values fell to $213,000 during the quarter, the lowest median price estimate recorded by the firm since the second quarter of 2005. Zillow’s home value report is based on data from 160 metropolitan statistical areas.
Purple is a great choice for a bruising spring market.
Sellers, put that sucker on ice & the swelling will go down.
1.
a. Find the sale prices on your street from 1999-2002, that’s your sales price. Aggressive pricing is 1997-1999.
b. Now add on for inflation just add 2-3%. (3 if you have yellow or green appliances, 2 if you have granite)
1a. Here’s how to find the past prices
Go to mycentraljersey.com, click Data Universe, then select Property Sales or Assessments, enter only your county, municipality, & street name (not #), then sort by sales date.
1b. Now figure inflation:
This is a very easy to use compound interest calculator, compounded by 1 time a year.
http://www.webmath.com/compinterest.html
2. Underprice every comp in your neighborhood by:
a) 50-75k for your OLP.
b) ask your agent for the most recent comp sale price, then take off 25k from that sales price & there’s your OLP.
c) POS? = an additional 100-200k off or do the work yourself.
3. Don’t forget to drop your price on the day a comp sells even lower, your agent should let you know & they’re lying if they say they don’t know. Fire them, get someone new. If a comp sells higher, it’s a slight of hand, the market isn’t coming back… or you own the POS on the block.
4. If you short sale, write off the difference as earned income. Ask the bank if you can short sale if you find a qualified buyer, get ’em while they’re hot & renting month-to-month! Don’t worry about making so much on paper, the gov’t is allowing it to be deferred so not due on next years taxes.
5. Realtors: For once, & it’s rare it happens, but now it’s quantity, not quality. Use the above methods & get a bunch of homes moving thru your doors vs. one here & another there. Show your sellers the numbers.
Can’t imagine autumn.
btw… did GSMLS hit 36k for a record last year? Noticed it was there this AM.
#41 – Renting,
I tried to submit but got:
A site named ‘New Jersey Real Estate Report’ has already been submitted. Each submitted site must have a unique name.
(47) Grim -The URL worked fine – vote changed from 3 to 4…You may need to repost that link….often…..Second attempt – “You have already voted for this site.”
#44 – voted Grim, thx!
Use this URL to vote!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
per#53
damn, I always forget…
Sellers, if there’s gas or sewer in the street & you have oil or septic then get connected already. No body wants your Valdez time bomb, esp. not in the Garden of EPA State.
Or take off more $$$.
house set to pass housing bill
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24381026
I suppose this gives us all the right to take at least 20% off all purchase offers
I just received this e-mail offer from my credit card company(which I have no balance on)…they want to help people with adjustable rate mortgages..unbelievable…here is the snipit:
Are you concerned that the rate on your Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) will go up? Or maybe you think your current APR is too high? Then the time might be right to refinance with a fixed rate Home Loan from XXXXXXXXXXXXX. Upon approval, you’ll receive a
• Low fixed APR starting at 5.78%1
• Free consultation with a home loans advisor
• Customized loan solution from $20,000 to $500,000
By refinancing, you could have more cash in your pocket to pay bills, consolidate your debt, or make big purchases. And you’ll have peace of mind knowing that your fixed rate loan will stay stable and secure.
they want to help people with adjustable rate mortgages
You see help, I see cross selling.
per #55
This is my personal example:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v89/fucttape/example.jpg
1992 SP: ?$200-225k?
2000 SP: $325,000
OLP: $479,900 (approx 165 DOM)
Relist: $449,900 + new roof
2008 Offer & SP: $400,000 (approx. 16% off OLP) + new roof.
From MarketWatch:
Week-to-week mortgage applications up 15.6%
Mortgage applications filed last week rose a seasonally adjusted 15.6% compared with the previous week, in line with falling mortgage interest rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday.
Refinancing applications rose 19.3% on a week-to-week basis, while applications for mortgages to buy homes were up a seasonally adjusted 12.1%.
The four-week moving average for all mortgages was down 2.6%, primarily reflecting slippage in refinancing filings.
Re: Student Loan Bubble:
Well, no kidding. That is what happens when you have a BS undergrad degree and expect to pull in 6 figures with no work experience. Then you get fustrated at the $30,000 a year salaries you are offered. You then think, “it must be my education” so you go back for a masters and still have no job experience and think a masters will get you 200k a year. When you find out that that isnt happening, you take on more debt and go for a PHd….
I really get fustrated seeing my generation with their luxury cars, oblivious Ipod ear buds constantly in the ears while they txt their friends
tbw,
Little has changed since 1899.
The Theory Of The Leisure Class (Gutenberg project)
By Thorstein Veblen
First published – 1899
Take the time to read it. At least take a peek at the Wikipedia summary:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_of_the_Leisure_Class
I wonder what the next bubble will be??
“Vote for the NJrereport!”
I was born in JC. Frank Hague rules apply.
“I wonder what the next bubble will be??”
Foreclosures, inventory, level 3 assets and lies.
I wonder what the next bubble will be??
Consumer prices?
Staten Island..wow, as a former Islander….there seems to be 3 million Brooklynites eager to move there and keeping the prices high!
Since my wife is from Brooklyn, I have this covered.
if you can sell your attached home in Brooklyn, with no lawn and no driveway and a traffic light on the corner for $600,000, you certainly are happy on SI with a 40×100 lot with grass, a drive way, detached house and no traffic light!
Plus you stay in familiar grounds of NYC! Only, as i learned, the longest commute in NYC to Manhattan is from SI! Let’s see, walk to train, wait for train, wait for ferry walk from ferry to subway, wait for subway…I’m tired just typing the commute!
Next Bubble..College Tuitions! Fueled by HELOC and “sub-prime” type student loans.
$40,000 for Marist??!!!!
“I wonder what the next bubble will be?”
It would be interesting to know what Fleckenstein “Greenspan’s Bubbles” thinks…
“The Federal Reserve must be ready to raise benchmark interest rates in a timely manner given the “troublesome” inflation outlook, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said on Tuesday.”
“If inflation gets too high, the economy will suffer dramatically,” Hoenig said, answering questions after a speech to the Economic Club of Denver”
“Hoenig said rising price pressures are not temporary, as some assert, but are “more serious,” pushing up inflation expectations in surveys and in financial markets.”
“These increases are beginning to generate an inflation psychology to an extent that I have not seen since the 1970s and early 1980s,” he said.
“Rising subprime delinquencies provided the spark that started the financial conflagration, but there was a lot of dry tinder to spread the fire and an absence of firewalls and a sprinkler system to contain the blaze.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080507/bs_nm/usa_fed_hoenig_dc
Conclusion… “Greenspan’s Bubbles”
“The Consequences of the Loss of Fear”
“Greenspan bailed out the world’s largest equity bubble with the world’s largest real estate bubble. That combination easily equates to the biggest orgy of speculation and debt creation the United States (and the world) has ever seen. Unfortunately, Greenspan’s legacy will not just be those two bubbles, their attendant busts, and the trillions of dollars of debt left in their wake. Operation Enduring Bubble – what I call Greenspan’s monetary and interest rate decisions that created the real estate bubble – also exacted a heavy toll on the dollar.”
He closes with, “the financial world Greenspan has left behind will be a treacherous one to navigate that will leave many wounded in its wake. There is no debate: Greenspan was no “Maestro;” he was the master of the United States’ decent into financial turmoil. The evidence speaks for itself.”
#43
Just voted for njrereport.com on
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How can students loans be classed as a bubble. The loans cannot be discharged in bankrupcy, therefore as the assest cannot go to Zero. This reason was why many private firms got into the business and that most finance sites tell you to get rid of the student loans first and then default on the cards.
PGC
with the recent change in bankruptcy law can you even get out from under credit card debt anymore? My understanding was that with the recent changes the best you had a shot at was an extended repayment plan
From the AP:
Man given home by TV show says it’s too pricey
A struggling Camden father of five who was given a new house on national television last year says it’s too expensive to maintain.
Victor Marrero tells WPVI-TV in Philadelphia and The Philadelphia Inquirer that’s why he briefly listed it for sale.
Marrero says his continuing financial struggles made him feel like a lion was after him. His newfound celebrity also put old creditors on his trail, threatening to put a lien on the home.
The home came with a quarterly tax bill of more than $1,500. Marrero says he also found utility costs high in the bigger home.
A nonprofit group says it will help him find ways to stay.
The Pennsauken home built in less than a week for ABC’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” is off the market.
State seeks hefty increase in housing for working class
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
BY TOM HESTER
Star-Ledger Staff
The state Council on Affordable Housing yesterday introduced new rules designed to force a hefty increase in the amount of housing built for poor and working-class families.
Responding to criticisms of a draft proposal from housing advocates, builders and environmentalists, the COAH made changes that also could force a larger number of housing units to be built on less land.
At the end of the day, the state is still seeking the construction of 115,000 new or refurbished affordable units by 2018, about double the amount it tried to force several years ago in a plan overturned by a state appellate court.
The rules introduced yesterday could go into effect as early as October if approved at a scheduled September meeting. Housing advocates and builders have battled the state for years, arguing it was failing to meet quarter-century old constitutional obligations to force towns to accept housing for the poor.
To get the housing built, towns would be permitted to hit builders with hefty fees. If towns collected the money but failed to build the housing, the state could seize the funds to begin construction.
The amendments introduced yesterday attempt to carve out a compromise between environmentalists — who argue too much sensitive land was being thrown open to development — and builders. It estimates roughly 1 million acres, about 20 percent of the state’s land mass, remains vacant and developable.
Just voted. Thanks for the continual info JB you have helped me turn the tide against my wife’s nesting instincts.
“Extreme Makeover: Home Edition”
=
“Home Makeover for Extreme Addiction”
That show extremely snooty. They are like an extreme version of Publishers Clearing house or lottery tickets. It just spews belief that no matter what you do in life, you deserve a McMansion. Though I do sympathize with situation of people shown on the show, the remedy shown is horrible. It would be great if they provided resources to folks to get back on their feet by may be starting small business or getting better jobs etc…
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I’m reposting this – grim’s in third place – let’s get moving! For those who don’t know, it would be cheating to vote multiple times, which you can do by going to “Tools” on your menu bar and deleting your cookies, so please don’t do that, as we don’t advocate cheating in order to win grim some money.
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Use this URL to vote!
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#72 Over 42k for Fordham. But hey I have been told it is one step down from Ivy league. Who knew?
Voted. Thanks to Grim and all the regulars. You all provide great insight and a laugh now and then.
Frank seeks bipartisan housing rescue deal
WASHINGTON (AP) — Barney Frank does not have time for chitchat.
Frank’s plan to have the government take on as much as $300 billion in new loans for strapped borrowers is drawing bipartisan support as the House moves toward a vote on it Wednesday.
That’s thanks in part to the Harvard-educated Frank’s deep understanding of the markets, say lawmakers, aides and lobbyists who have worked closely with him.
#46 grim: DONE!!! Thanks for all your work.
‘Extreme Makeover’ house for sale, not for sale
by South Jersey News Online
Wednesday May 07, 2008, 8:55 AM
PENNSAUKEN, N.J. (AP) — A struggling Camden father of five who was given a new house on national television last year says it’s too expensive to maintain.
Victor Marrero tells WPVI-TV in Philadelphia and The Philadelphia Inquirer that’s why he briefly listed it for sale.
Marrero says his continuing financial struggles made him feel like a lion was after him. His newfound celebrity also put old creditors on his trail, threatening to put a lien on the home.
The home came with a quarterly tax bill of more than $1,500. Marrero says he also found utility costs high in the bigger home.
A nonprofit group says it will help him find ways to stay.
The Pennsauken home built in less than a week for ABC’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” is off the market.
#86 SG That’s thanks in part to the Harvard-educated Frank’s deep understanding of the markets, say lawmakers, aides and lobbyists who have worked closely with him.
God Help Us.
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Oops….grim beat me to it….Oh well….twice is nice.
Can $15 billion and some paint save your ‘hood?
A bill in Congress would allocate funds to states to buy, rehab and sell foreclosed homes. Here’s how it would work.
A housing-rescue bill moving through Congress would allocate $7.5 billion in grants and $7.5 billion in zero-interest loans to states to buy foreclosed homes, rehab them, and resell them. The bill, sponsored by Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), passed committee last week and will most likely be taken up on the House floor this week. A Senate bill including a similar provision passed in April, appropriating $4 billion to the task.
Republicans who oppose the idea say that it would give an incentive to lenders to more quickly kick out homeowners, since they can pawn off the home on local governments.
Under the House plan, the Department of Housing and Urban Development would dole out the loans and grants based on the number of foreclosures and home prices in an area. Cities could use the money to buy foreclosed homes, renovate the homes to make them compliant with housing codes, and resell or rent them.
The homes can’t be resold to buyers who make more than 140% of the area’s median income and some funds are reserved for low-income buyers.
And if a buyer resold the house for a profit after he bought it from the city, the federal government would keep 20% of the profit.
I guess Govt also wants piece of Flipping and Extreme Makeover party. I think they should hire all the home makeover TV show hosts as well to make the house more appealing.
Next Bubble……happening now in fact….FOOD.
92…The White House will be more appealing once Obama moves in.
For any one who cares. The update on UBS’s dumping it’s muni business.
The firm will keep 50 to 100 people to service investors in their wealth management division who may want to buy munis in the secondary market.
The rest will be let go as according to what I have been hearing, they do not expect to be able to sell the business, and will simply shutter it.
Auction of Over 350 Foreclosures in MA, NY, NJ, and RI Make Home Ownership Affordable
Valued from $9,000 to nearly $500,000, all Homes Owned by National Banks and Will Be Auctioned by Hudson & Marshall May 13th-May 18th
Willingboro, NJ-May 15th- (11 homes);
All the bankers will join the lawyers in the bowels of hell once the rapture comes.
sx
“All the bankers will join the lawyers in the bowels of hell once the rapture comes.”
Go out on a limb, why don’t you.
I’m just funnin’ ya this morning…..
NNJ properties on Auction block,
http://www.hudsonandmarshall.com/default.asp?contentID=9&a=422&s=2598&s2=&pagesize=9999&page=1
78 kettle
Correct.
Which is why credit card rates should be 2%, what with so little risk. But they’re not.
Hmmm.
99 essex
I was just pointing out that your prediction was too easy…
Oops, let’s try that again.
I just voted for New Jersey Real Estate Report, have you?
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Grim,
I think you should put the link on your homepage as well.
re 86 (bailout)
what i have read suggests that this plan would at most help 1 million bag holders (home owners). Even if this plan met all expectations would this # even make a serious dent in anything except for perhaps the occasional local cluster ?
China scares me.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080507/ap_on_re_as/china_heparin&printer=1;_ylt=AmVCt0LlytVF6bL4KVVxX5D9xg8F
China accuses US of shoddy probe into tainted heparin
China’s drug safety agency accused the United States on Tuesday of blocking Beijing’s inquiry into a blood thinner linked to 81 deaths by refusing to provide details on victims and specifics about production.
Two Chinese experts who attended a conference on the drug, heparin, in suburban Washington, D.C., last month said the U.S. determined a contaminant was likely to blame without considering other possible factors.
“We need to resolve this in a scientific matter, not just by blaming a contaminant,” said Jin Shaohong, a member of the drug evaluation committee of China’s Food and Drug Administration. “I think it is too early to say that.”
Besides the deaths, hundreds of patients have suffered severe allergic reactions to large doses of heparin, which is used in dialysis and other treatments.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said it suspects the problems stem from a contaminant the agency discovered in supplies of raw heparin coming from China — a compound derived from animal cartilage that so closely mimics heparin that routine tests can’t detect it.
The Chinese experts said U.S. officials and Baxter International refused to give them information to probe the possibility that drug interactions, patients’ medical histories or safety issues after the raw material left China may have played a role.
FDA spokeswoman Karen Riley said Tuesday that she could not recall China asking for medical histories.
“We’ve not received a request from China about patient records,” Riley said.
Li Xuewang, a professor at Peking Union Medical College who attended last month’s conference, said he asked for information such as how many of the patients had medical issues like kidney disease or heart problems and was told it was not available and could take several months to provide.
Federal law prevents the FDA from sharing individual patient information that contains identifying information.
“Some of the level of detail that China is asking for would likely have to be removed to comply with our patient privacy laws,” Riley said.
She added that when adverse events are reported, the patient records involved in those cases will be posted on the FDA’s Web site with the personal detail withheld. She expected detail involving the Heparin cases to be posted in June.
Riley noted that individual case reports did not prompt the heparin investigation in the first place. Rather, it was clusters of reports coming in from providers, lawyers and relatives showing that patients were experiencing similar adverse reactions. A subsequent inquiry identified Baxter’s heparin as the likely cause of the allergic reactions.
Members of the Chinese delegation also visited the Baxter plant in Cherry Hill, N.J., where the finished drug is made, but said they were denied details on how specific batches of the medicine were produced last fall.
Jin said Baxter International told the visitors that samples from the batches had either been taken by the FDA or destroyed.
Officials at Baxter International, the maker of heparin, disagreed.
“We’ve cooperated with all parties involved in the heparin situation and we will seek to understand any concerns to the contrary,” said Erin Gardiner, a company spokeswoman.
She said Baxter had agreed to provide Chinese officials with contaminated heparin samples when they visited the New Jersey plant two weeks ago, but first needed to assure it had samples to spare. That has now been confirmed and samples will be provided, she said.
China has said the contaminant, over-sulfated chondroitin sulfate, may not be responsible because some patients who received the tainted heparin did not get sick. Other patients received doses that did not contain the contaminant but still became ill, officials said.
The investigation into heparin comes as China has been working to improve the safety of its exports after allegations that many of its products — from toys to fish — are shoddy or dangerous.
SG Says:
NNJ properties on Auction block,
A smorgasborg of deals on excellent properties in neighborhoods where you would want your children to grow up and go to school.
re (bailout)
The homes can’t be resold to buyers who make more than 140% of the area’s median income and some funds are reserved for low-income buyers.
I think that condition itself would prevent Govt even buying a home in NJ suburb that is on foreclosure. I think this can help neighborhoods like Newark, Trenton, Plainfield and Camden.
A hedge fund manager argues in the WSJ that the housing market is bottoming. Is he right… or out of his mind?
On the opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal hedge fund manager Cyril Moulle-Berteaux writes that the housing crisis is essentially over. “How can this be?” he writes. “For starters a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won’t happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse…”
He goes on to remind readers that the current housing crisis is nearly 3-years old, residential construction is close to its 15-year low, prices have fallen, and mortgage rates have come down.
Meanwhile, Fannie Mae’s CEO Daniel Mudd said the housing market is now in “the belly” of one of the worst cycles since the Great Depression, also suggesting a bottom may be in sight. Fannie Mae Federal National Mortgage Association the largest U.S provider of home financing, posted a massive quarterly loss on Tuesday, its third straight. It also slashed its dividend and set plans to raise $6 billion of fresh funds.
Additionally, most analysts expect more bad news on housing, when the National Association of Realtors releases its index of pending sales for existing homes on Wednesday.
I think the market has priced in the housing crisis, says Karen Finerman. It’s probably okay to dip your toe in the water.
My vote is in.
(voted!)
44) kettle: well, yes… and…
hope is what gets me out of bed in the morning. (er, that and the kids) so i hope. maybe the brilliant scientist will be from India, I don’t care what their nationality is, really.
I posted this in the other thread, but I’ve played with medieval reenactors. Went camping for two weeks “in the modern middle ages”… fun place to visit, never want to live there. It is just hard work. All the time. Especially with kids. (They pry the disposable diapers out of my cold dead hands… ;)
Holding out for solar power… (and confused why GE’s stock is doing so poorly.)
dont worry Syb,
we can have our products made with slave labor and maintain an 80% profit margin when we sell to the fat americans! where is the problem? dont you want your 200K bonus this year
China made products……..avoid them…….sue the hell out of Baxter….and move on. Problem Solved.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XGJq8wrw5I
US financial Sector Landing Jobs skills. Great video.
Anyone have any insight into why the “Wayland” section of Verona seems to be immune from price declines? Prices seem to be rising at a fast clip and houses are not staying on the market for long after listing.
“A hedge fund manager argues in the WSJ that the housing market is bottoming. Is he right… or out of his mind?”
Just another name on my long list that begins with Kevin Hassett and Steve Glassman
A hedge fund manager argues in the WSJ that the housing market is bottoming. Is he right… or out of his mind?
Essex,
This comment from Calculated Risk sums his position up perfectly:
Unsympathetic writes:
This guy is simply talking his book.
When you download the q407 SEC filing of his hedge fund, you find:
* 80,000 shares of Lennar
* 72,000 shares of Centex
* 165,000 shares of DR Horton
* 20,000 shares of Hovnanian
* 14,000 shares of Meritage
* 110,000 shares of Pulte
* 70,000 shares of Toll Brothers
And, just for kicks:
* 27,000 shares of Bear Stearns
* 170,000 shares of Citigroup
* 130,000 shares of Goldman Sachs
* 65,000 shares of Citizens Bank
* 440,000 shares of Morgan Stanley
* 102,000 shares of Morgan Stanley China
Hat tip to Unsympathetic and CR.
Where you sit is where you stand.
114 garageland
Probably due to the anecdata.
#108 Essex: prices have fallen.
They have, but simply not enough.
“Where you sit is where you stand.”
You left out the h.
#114 garage:Prices seem to be rising at a fast clip.
Are you sure they are rising?
My Vote is in!
Grim,
Great job with the data, again.
Tied – 84 votes for #1
My vote is IN!! Great Job!
Vote everyone!!!
woohoo!
Everybody remember to vote when you get home.
still looking (from yesterday)-
Getting back into the swing here. Was away at a charity event for the weekend & did another fundraiser breakfast this AM.
Gotta pay off that damn TRIMA machine in your blood room! Today’s breakfast event raised a big chunk of change; Joanne and all the blood room folks really stepped up and helped, too.
125 clot
Nice.
Houses are coming onto the market in this neighborhood at 20% more than they were two years ago and are going under contract quickly (some in less than 2 weeks).
From MarketWatch:
Pending home sales index fell 1% in March: NAR
An index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell 1.0% in March from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 20.1% from the March 2007 level. By region, March’s pending home sales index rose only in the Northeast, with a 12.5% gain. The index declined 10.4% in the Midwest, 1.4% in the West and 0.1% in the South. February’s level was revised to a decline of 2.8% from a prior estimate of a 1.9% drop.
#128 grim: Up in the northeast again?? Seems odd.
“February’s level was revised to a decline of 2.8% from a prior estimate of a 1.9% drop.”
D’oh!
The only useful number in the report is the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) year over year comparison.
Pending home sales in the Northeast are *DOWN* 18.3%, from March of 2007.
Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)
Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – Not Seasonally Adjusted
March 2007 – 118.9
March 2008 – 97.1
vs. last year -18.3%
garageland [127],
Just so I have this straight: There are people paying 20% above peak for houses in Verona, within days, with mortgage lending that’s hit a brick wall and energy and food prices skyrocketing, amidst a shrinking job market. Got it.
3b (89)-
“…thanks in part to the Harvard-educated Frank’s deep understanding of the markets…”
This, about a guy who didn’t have a clue that a male pr@stit#tion ring was being run out of his apartment.
The inmates are now officially running the asylum.
I agree, it makes no sense. I’m just wondering why??
US Economy No Recovery Whilst Housing Bust Continues- Gold $1200
How many times have the clowns on Wall Street and the financial subservient media networks claimed that the worst was over for the US Dollar, gold, the US Economy, the housing market, and bank bond losses?
Banks in aggregate have a slightly better liquidity position, but still a negative overall condition. Big deal! The US banks have gone from minus $100 billion to minus $90 billion in non-borrowed reserves. Huh?!? The problem is fixed? Methinks not! Can banks proceed without further bond losses after housing prices have fallen during the last few months, and during the next few months? Methinks not! Another huge round of bank bond losses comes in just a few months. Be patient. The night of bond loss follows the foul day of continued home price declines.
The US Govt and US Fed and US Treasury have made a deal with the devil. Primarily Arabs (much less so Asians) have been encouraged to add cash in order to keep US big banks solvent….
I will not buy a gubmint house unless it has granite, stainless steel, Miele and Sub-Zero.
FHA, you now have your spec list.
Grim #127 in mod
From Bloomberg:
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Decreased 1%
Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in March for the second consecutive month as falling prices and tougher loan rules discouraged buyers.
The index of pending home resales fell 1 percent to 83, following a 2.8 percent drop in February that was larger than previously reported, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The decline matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The glut of unsold properties is driving down home values, while rising defaults on subprime mortgages have prompted lenders to restrict access to credit, representing more hurdles for buyers. The slump in residential real estate may persist for much of the year, hurting economic growth.
“Sales are continuing to fall and I think it’s largely because buyers are expecting prices to continue to fall,” Michelle Meyer, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Sales will “continue to fall probably though mid-summer.” Lehman correctly forecast the decline.
Clot (137) – Gotta add a pony to the list.
#135 clot:The inmates are now officially running the asylum.
And they are coming for the few of us who appear to be left, who can think.
“I agree, it makes no sense. I’m just wondering why??”
garage – where are you getting your sales figures, or are you just looking at asking prices?
#133 grim: Thanks.
New Jersey Real Estate Report in the lead with 100 votes.
#127 SG Amazing in this envrironment that there are still developers out there who still have plans for such large developments.
mostly going by asking prices and assuming that if they go under contract so quickly they must be getting close to asking
#127 garage
Where is that? Alice in blunderland?
Dear Realtors,
Verona didn’t get the memo. Hurry, you still have time to flip three per day before word gets out. Bread and circuses abound!
ithink-ithink Says:
May 7th, 2008 at 6:41 am
“btw… did GSMLS hit 36k for a record last year? Noticed it was there this AM.”
ithink,
GSMLS inventory did not hit 36K last year until September and then peaked at 36,202 in October.
garageland
You want my advice? Don’t buy in Verona.
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grim/richnj: When one of you guys get a chacne could you please give me the address, property taxes and prior sales history (if available) for this gem. njmls 2818662.
Thanks as always.
grim (116)-
I wonder how much that guy’s insured his portfolio against the tsunami of sh*t that appears to have struck it.
I wonder what that fund’s redemption policy is, too.
Just because a student loan can’t be discharged does not mean they will get repaid. Any landlord who wins a judgement knows that is quite different from collecting.
People can work off the books, move to a different country, have kids and be the stay at home one, drop dead. Who knows. Plus some student loans are not even guaranteed by the govt.
155 john
“People can work off the books, move to a different country … drop dead.”
All good options, admittedly.
From CNN/Money:
Pending home sales hit record low in March
The number of homes under contract for sale fell in March, hitting a record low for the second consecutive month, according to a report released Wednesday.
The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index fell to 83 in March, down 1% from a downwardly revised reading of 83.8 in February. The rate of decline was in line with a consensus estimate of economists compiled by Briefing.com.
March’s reading was down 20.1% from the same period last year.
Verona…..living in nearby CG…I could guess that potential Montclair buyers are waking up to the fact that Verona offers a more suburban and experience with lower taxes and better schools
re: Verona
No train, need I say more?
3b, 51 Rutgers Place
House has a colorful history
04/15/02 254,000
07/28/94 139,900
05/27/94 90,000
06/22/99 180,000
House was a foreclosure in 1994, owners bought it for 90,000 and sold it a few months later in 1994 for 139,900 in case you were wondering…
10 fastest growing real estate markets
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/moneymag/0805/gallery.resg_gainers.moneymag/
None are in places I would even want to visit, let alone move to.
#146 3b, The developers are touting plans, talking to planning boards trying to get things approved. It doesn’t mean built, building etc. The same thing happened the last time around, this is NJ, there is huge demand for housing at some point in the next 10 years financing and the market with reach a point where such a project would be very lucrative. Or even if he is trying to sell his land to the greater fool, it is easier if he sells the land + plan as a development opportunity. Just remember plans rarely come to fruition, the last 3-5 years have been a fluke predicated on the insane housing market.
159 grim
“No train, need I say more?”
We were at a dinner party in the city last weekend at which several folks expressed interest in the lovely Brigadoon and were shocked (SHOCKED!) to hear that it doesn’t even have a direct line.
#163 jcer: Understood, still surprising.
As far as the huge demand for hoising, I disagree with that, not with a state that is witnessing a population decline, coupled with the exodus of business.
Check out the blog in 2nd place…barf…it looks like a relic of 2005
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/leaderboard.php
Rebuttal To SmartMoney US Housing Market Bottom Call
Housing prices rose 100% in many big markets from 2002 to 2006. Even more in some places. We have now seen a 30% decline. We need to see a 50% decline and that is just to get back to a point at which houses were already expensive. Inventory is still rising, and people are walking away from homes. With Condos, the situation is even worse. There is a 16 year supply of condos in Florida. There is enormous condo overbuilding in many areas.
The housing bust in Japan went on for 18 consecutive years. The bust in California is less than 2 years, Florida far more advanced than CA is still less than 3 years old.
Housing prices compared to rent are still high, compared to salary are still high. The argument that wages and incomes are rising on average ignores a monstrous skew. Real wages have been falling for the bottom 80% or so of the population, and dramatically for the bottom 50% of the population.
I am sticking with 2012 at the earliest although there could be a bit of an uptick in 2009.
#160 tbw Thanks for the update, not a fan of the loation, off of Bogert,a nd right on top of the Continental.
Those rental apartments are getting dicey, lots of over crowding etc. Very transient,and parking is a nightmare.
Yeah, those apartments were always shady
Washington Times Editorial,
Bernanke’s bully pulpit
With the collapse of housing prices, many of those “homedebtors” now find that they owe more on their mortgage than their houses are worth. In the unlikely event that lenders and mortgage investors don’t know what’s in their best interest, Mr. Bernanke mounted his bully pulpit and told them (again) that they need to write-off large portions of their loans so that the U.S. taxpayer can then guarantee new mortgages that would be insured by the Federal Housing Administration. As housing prices continue to plummet, that’s not a good idea, especially when those “homedebtors” would still have little, if any, skin in the game.
From the Star Ledger:
Officials end project to build houses, golf courses in Meadowlands
The New Jersey Meadowlands Commission voted this morning to sever ties with EnCap, ending the developer’s beleaguered quest to build houses and golf atop former landfills.
“Encap is over,” said Joseph Doria, chairman of the Meadowlands Commission.
The commission will use $6 million set aside by the developer to clean up the 785 acres of landfills in Rutherford, Lyndhurst and North Arlington , said Robert Ceberio, executive director of the Meadowlands Commission.
The Commission will also seek to collect a $148 million performance bond posted by insurance giant AIG, Cebarrio said.
166 Renting
OMG, it’s not written in English:
“Nowadays, investing in real estate is one of the lucrative commercial sectors that will provide an investor large chances to produce cash with no trouble. It is a commercial entity that has very small threats or failures. This is measured that investing in real estate is very much gainful and favorable when assessed to divide with selling and buying cash or gold, silver, or even platinum. The national administration also offers investors with a lot of tax benefits such as exceptional reimbursements and discounts like Goods and Services Tax. This is one of the reasons why a lot of people engage in real estate investing lessons to somewhat well-versed in the real estate business and become a great investor. Informatively, this is the largest economic industry for most Americans, especially for residents in the Florida State.”
Vomit.
#169 tbw: Getting worse. But we are not allowed to talk about it, what with us being prestigious and all.
“What would be the ultimate post we could do at the Irvine Housing Blog? We have been getting a great deal of attention lately for our posts on HELOC abuse, and our post on Monday showing the $500,000 loss was also very well received. This is only one way you can top what we have done to date: combine the two. Today’s featured property is the new pinnacle. We are raising the bar. Today, we have a property where the owner took out over $1,000,000 in a series of small refinances and general HELOC abuse, and now the lender who has taken back the property is looking at a $650,000 loss.”
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/the-ultimate-post/
The hourly repost:
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Use this URL to vote!
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More Irvine:
“This property was purchased for $520,000 on April 6, 2000. The buyer put $120,000 down and financed $400,000. It didn’t take long for the kool aid to begin flowing.
In July of 2001, he refinanced for $500,000 taking out $100,000 of his initial equity.
In January of 2002, he took out a $544,000 loan taking out all $120,000 of his initial equity plus an additional $22,000.
In February of 2002, he took out a $30,000 stand-alone second.
In March of 2002, he took out a $50,000 stand-alone second.
In August of 2002, he took out a $67,800 stand-alone second.
In October of 2002, he opened a $20,000 HELOC.
In November of 2002, he refinanced with a $596,000 first and a $149,000 stand-alone second and presumably paid off all the other loans. At this point, his mortgage equity withdrawal stands at $345,000.
In January of 2003, he opened a $20,000 HELOC.
In January of 2004, he refinanced with a $793,600 first and a $148,800 stand-alone second.
In April of 2004, he refinanced again with a $940,000 first and a $176,250 stand-alone second.
In October of 2004, he refinanced the stand-alone second for $400,000
In March of 2005, he refinanced the stand-alone second for $550,000”
Analyst webcast – Thursday, May 8, 2008 10:00 a.m. http://www.sovereignbank.com
Soveign who is big in tristate area, remember they bought Independence Saving Bank. Well they must be holding a big pot of crap as their “investment grade” bonds due in 2010 are yielding 8.879% today. Crazy yield for a top ten bank on a senior bond with a two year maturity. Either it is the yield of a lifetime on a two year bond or someone knows their is a bag of crap to be opened on the webcast tommorrow.
I love Wall Street.
i voted
“Capitalism without failure, is like Christianity without hell.”
Warren Buffet!
This article has mainly Australian information, but has some US specific quotes,
The debt hangover
Keen says the US figures are even more startling, with total debt now totalling about 370 per cent of GDP compared with about 300 per cent back in 1932. Today Compared to Great Depression era.
“The build-up started in 1987 when then Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, basically told the market the Fed would be there to provide liquidity if ever the market got itself into dire straits,” he says. “That sent the message that you could go out and take risks and if you screw up, it will bail you out.”
True to form, the Federal Reserve has been addressing the credit crisis through lowering interest rates, providing liquidity and even helping bail out investment bank Bear Stearns. How successful it will be remains to be seen but Clancy says excessive leverage has already generated hundreds of billions in losses and a massive ripple effect.
Very good article.
With Much Blood-Letting to Come, the U.S. Housing Finance System Needs Replacing
Standard and Poor’s recently projected the likely future loss rate on the $650 billion of subprime-mortgage-backed securities that are still out in the marketplace. From that we can estimate the losses S&P is projecting on the actual mortgages themselves.
According to S&P, senior AAA-rated bonds will pay out about 60% of principal, junior AAA-rated bonds about 35%, AA-rated bonds about 5% and lower-rated bonds nothing at all. Since about 75% of subprime mortgage-backed securities were AAA rated, we can calculate that S&P thinks subprime mortgages will eventually return about 40% on the original principal amount.
That’s a startling number.
Let’s now turn to actual housing prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices of home prices in the Top 20 urban markets dropped a bigger-than-anticipated 12.7% in the 12 months that ended in February – the worst showing since the index debuted in 1991. What’s even more alarming, however, is that the decline is accelerating. In February alone, prices dropped 2.7% – the equivalent of a 28% decline if this rate persisted for the entire year.
That should have alarmed both homeowners with large mortgages and mortgage market participants – if prices were to drop 30% to 40%, instead of the generally expected 15% to 20%, even prime home mortgages would get in trouble and the losses would be appalling – in the range of multiple trillions of dollars.
However, when you look at factors like the ratio of house prices to incomes, it becomes obvious that the problem is not the current drop, but the previous rise. Since World War II, the average house price was 3.2 times the average income. By 2006, however, the average house price had jumped to 4.5 times the average income. With house prices outrunning incomes in that way, mortgage financing was bound to become more and more risky, and a substantial drop was eventually inevitable – to take prices from 4.5 times income to 3.2 times would require housing prices to plunge 29%. And that doesn’t even consider the possibility that prices might overshoot on the downside.
the data below shows the % of gross income that a family with 2 drivers driving 12k mi/yr @ 22mi/gal can expect to spend on gas at different price points.
25k 45k 100k price of regular gas
13% 7% 3% $3.00
17% 10% 4% $4.00
22% 12% 5% $5.00
26% 15% 7% $6.00
31% 17% 8% $7.00
35% 19% 9% $8.00
39% 22% 10% $9.00
44% 24% 11% $10.00
48% 27% 12% $11.00
50% 28% 13% $11.50
note that as of 2006 20% of families in the US made 25K/yr 20% made 100K/yr and 48K is the median income. the people below median income are going to quickly get into trouble. what are you supposed to do if you should only spend 1/4 of your income on housing, when you need 1/4 just for gasoline. Compare this to NJ’s demographics and we have a potentially large driver for people rapidly moving back into urban areas as you will either be rich or broke due to gasoline costs by living in the suburbs
I sent you the chart as a JPEG JB if you feel inclined to post it
If you look at how quickly home prices increased it is amazing. A starter house on Long Island was around 3,000 dollars in 1923 but 1973 a starter home was around 33,000. A whooping 30K increase in 50 years. That home purchased for 33k in 1973 shot to 280k by 1988 or up almost 250K in just 14 years. Now that house purchased for 280K in 1988 was still worth around 280K in 1998 or zero percent return for ten years. Now that house purchased for 280K in 1998 was up to 600k by 2006 an amazing $320K return in just eight years, during that period houses rose an amazing 40K a year for eight years straight. Even more amazing their are losts of our parents who paid 40K for those houses in the early 70’s, those folks were getting a 100% return on invesement for 8 years straight. Like Cisco in March 2000 you get a little nuts and spoiled when things shoot to the roof that much and for that long. Problem is cheap money and people selling their own over inflated homes drove the market. Their is no more cheap money and people can’t sell home A to get to home B. So the flipping and trade up crowd is dead. That leaves broke newlwed couples as new buyers who need a home. So when your market is now people without a lot of money shopping at a time of high inventory what do you expect? Bidding Wars.
Economists say that, during Bush’s second term, fully 25% of the economy (as measured by consumer spending) was due to the housing bubble….the salaries of construction workers building new homes, optimistic home-owners, and flippers, buying second and third homes, with no-interest adjustable rate mortgages, and home owners taking out second mortgages on their homes to pay for trips to Hawaii, and to buy expensive Christmas gifts.
In addition, Bush’s pumping of billions of dollars into the economy, through “the most reckless spending spree in the history of the world” created the mirage of a vibrant economy, whereas the underlying fundamentals of the Bush economy, were actually that of the complete disaster… which we are now finally starting to see emerge… with full vengance
http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s8i34393
Rent (166)-
Looks like it’s time for a DOS attack on that Tampa blog…:)
patient (176)-
Equity-Stripping 101.
clot – guy thought he was a PE outfit
blah blah blah…
Everyone’s thankin’ grimmie, thought I might as well, too…
Grim put me in touch with a commercial agent who I have met with and will be working with… So, from me, THANKS, GRIMSTER!
But… ah…..ummm…. ah….hey grim…. you don’t have a million (or so) dollars loafin’ around on yer kitchen counter, do ya’? :)
@183
That leaves broke newlwed couples as new buyers who need a home. So when your market is now people without a lot of money shopping at a time of high inventory what do you expect? Bidding Wars.
Explain, please.
187 patient
cant that guy get a loan from the fed with a 5 year old ford expedition as collateral? he is just leveraging his assets to stimulate the economy.
warren buffet is laughing at his competitor paying 11% COF versus his bond insurer business paying 3% COF. Wow who will outlast who?
AMBAC FINL GROUP INC DEB 5.95000% 12/05/2035
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 56.079
Yield to Worst (Ask) 11.077%
From The Record
Agents balk at overpriced homes
Businesspeople hate to turn away clients. But in the current housing cycle, some real estate agents say that’s exactly what they have to do when a home seller won’t get real about the asking price.
Margrit Vogler of Margrit Vogler Properties in Oradell said she turned down three or four potential listings last year for this reason.
“I can’t spend money advertising something I know I can’t sell,” Vogler said. “It’s not worth it to me. Advertising is way too expensive.”
When sellers insist on a high listing price, Vogler tells them: “I don’t want to disappoint you. I know what the market value of your house is, and I’m not interested in disappointing you and not getting the job done.”
…
Barbara Colella of Prominent Properties Sotheby’s International Realty in Saddle River said she recently turned down a prospective client who wanted an unrealistic price. With properties selling at a slower pace, she doesn’t want to invest a lot of time and advertising dollars on one that’s overpriced.
Like many Realtors, Margie Behr of Burgdorff ERA in Hillsdale said that rather than turn down a listing, she’ll work hard to persuade sellers to price the house correctly, by showing them the sale prices of comparable houses.
Sometimes that means they get news they don’t want to hear. Two years ago, for example, she did a market comparison for a couple thinking of selling. At that time, she valued their house at $569,000. They weren’t ready to sell then, but they recently came back to her because they are ready now. In today’s softer market, she suggested listing the house at $539,000. The sellers’ reaction: “Are you kidding me?”
…
Soon enough, the market will tell these sellers that the price is too high. “You allow the buying public to tell them, ‘No, we’re not going to buy your house at that price,’ ” DeLuca said.
190
“cant that guy get a loan from the fed with a 5 year old ford expedition as collateral? ”
Sure thing. By next month, that’ll be backed by Fannie and Freddie.
Re 189 I ment when I had an open house four ago I had flippers waiving easy money cash around to buy the house and people selling litle crap boxes they bought for 150K for 550K who was using that free money equity to trade up. At that open house I had two or three disapointed newlwed couples or couples in apartments who were looking to buy as the wife became pregant. Those three of four couples were low on downpayment and low on income and had a lot of upcoming expenses. They were all priced out of the home as they could not pay the inflated prices. Well flash forward to 2008 those three or four young broke couples is all you get. My friend had an open house last week, she had two couples starting out who want to buy but gave low bids, she had few noisy neighbors who wanted to see how much their house was worth and a few vultures looking for short sales etc. and a few realtors. That is it for a whole month. She bought that house herself in 2004 with 5% down and their were tons and tons of people like her getting in over their head cause they had cheap money from the banks and houses only go up. Now she has a customer base of broke newlyweds looking to start a family. Good Luck getting a bidding war going.
#192 rich: Are you kidding me?”
Don’t you just love the sellers attitude, their shock, their disappointment?
Like the market is supposed to wit around for them, until they are ready.
SG,
Wasn’t Cheney quoted once as saying the American people don’t care about deficits.
update: NJREREPORT pulling away from the Tampa blog by nearly 2:1 margin
#192 rich: Now all we need is a few more broker/owners in River Edge/Oradell to be as realsitic as Ms. Vogler from Oradell.
3b
but but but, everyone wants tulip bulbs!
#196 he he: First of all many Americans probably do not know what a deficit is, or that the U.S. is running a huge one. We are number one of course.
Second Mr. Kudlow has talking heads on his show all the time who say deficits do not matter. Scary, but true.
“We were at a dinner party in the city last weekend at which several folks expressed interest in the lovely Brigadoon and were shocked (SHOCKED!) to hear that it doesn’t even have a direct line.”
Did you mention to them that there’s a 5-7 year waitlist for parking for this non-direct train?
Rich (192)-
“When sellers insist on a high listing price, Vogler tells them: “I don’t want to disappoint you. I know what the market value of your house is, and I’m not interested in disappointing you and not getting the job done.”
Music to my ears. This is such an easy thing to say to a selling prospect. I hope more agents out there are finally coming to this realization. Sellers, buyers and agents will all win when prices start reflecting some degree of value.
196 hehehehehe
“Wasn’t Cheney quoted once as saying the American people don’t care about deficits.”
I believe his quote was to the effect that Reagan had “proved” that “deficits don’t matter.”
John (191)-
Moot question. That’s a pop-gun vs. a bazooka.
patient (203)-
It was Reagan who started tamping the crap into the septic. It’s been carried on- to some degree or another- by every Administration since.
201 go daddyo
“Did you mention to them that there’s a 5-7 year waitlist for parking for this non-direct train?”
I forgot!!! Dang. Another hidden perk of life in Brigadoon.
The hourly repost:
Vote for the NJrereport!
We’re proud to announce the FHA Mortgage Center.com Best Blogs Contest. Our goal is to highlight the best real estate related blogs on the web. The contest is based on the quality of the content of the blogs so there’s no special post or linking required!
Use this URL to vote!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
It’s up there twice; once in 1st and once at 49th. I guess that’s what the NAR calls relisting.
205 clot
Sure enough.
Upper Haughtyville market still going strong. the house down the street sold in 2005 for $895,000 and went on the market last week at 1.5 million, and just sold for 1.6!!
myrtle beach blog in third place has voting link prominently at top of home page. A sample of their fine work from the current front page:
“According to Southern Living Magazine, a 1999 survey conducted by Gallop Polls showed that good landscaping could add 7 to 15% to the market value of a home for sale.”
#202 Clot: I agree, but many people in both towns are going to very angry with her. She does a lot of business in River Edge and Oradell.
And many of the poor spending decesions in these 2 towns over the last few years (especially in River Edge) was sold to the gullible public on the premise that real estate values will always go up.
And spending millions, would guarantee that those values would not go down, because the towns will become even more desireable.
I am not speaking tongue in cheek. I am serious many residents and broker/owner, realtors in these 2 towns are not going to be happy with her quotes.
Or perhaps secretly they will.
re Brigadoon parking
I called recently and was told there was a 1.5 year wait for the “outer” lot (watterson and south), then you sit there for years until you get into the main lot. My walk to the station is 40 minutes. I did see a bike rack though…
#209 tbw It ain’t sold until its sold. Which Upper Haughtyville town are we talking about?
OK – the condometropolis blog is actually pretty good…
Not as good as this one, of course.
RayC
” I did see a bike rack though…”
I biked my first 3 months in Brigadoon, until someone stole my bike from that rack. OK, to be strictly accurate, they just stole the bike chain and bent the frame, but same result.
Crime, in Brigadoon?!!?
Mr. Kudlow’s Bio does not seem to portray lot of confidence.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Kudlow
213: just inserting some humor lol
Angry Renter Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOaDrM3rMXs
#215 njpatient: They must come from another town, it cannot possibly be Brigadoon.
Poll: Americans Oppose Sub-Prime Mortgage Bailout
Corrupt Banking System – Cartels Robbing the Public
I think they’ll start caring when our Chinese, Japanese and Arab masters come by to pick up their checks.
… talked to a friend yesterday who works for JPMChase. He thinks this job market is going to be worse than following the 1987 crash. He said, once the jobs go away, they don’t come back.
where is Upper Haughtyville?
“where is Upper Haughtyville?”
Why it’s just adjacent to Haughtyville. I heard they share the same school system and other social services too.
Five Things You Need to Know: Productivity Fine, It’s Just Your Pay That’s Gone Missing
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=17057
hi…
info on njmls # 2818601 please?
thanks
… talked to a friend yesterday who works for JPMChase. He thinks this job market is going to be worse than following the 1987 crash. He said, once the jobs go away, they don’t come back.
That was always my fear for NJ. While I think Manhattan will get its finance jobs back after a downturn, I don’t think NJ will fare as well. NJ already had problems attracting and retaining businesses before the downturn. I think many of the Pharma, back office and other jobs NJ will likely lose during the downturn will be picked up in more business friendly locations during the next expansion and not NJ.
… talked to a friend yesterday who works for JPMChase. He thinks this job market is much better than everyone thinks and there are plenty of jobs for anyone that wants to work. He said, these jobs are dime and dozen.
Grim,
Nice of them to put up a leaderboard, you are in first place so far with some slacker from Tampa in second.
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/leaderboard.php
By the way what is the first place prize a 3rd class ticket to a month long vacation in Gitmo?
Frank [229],
That’s funny. I know 2 MD’s at JPM. They tell me the opposite regarding WS jobs. They say it will be worse than Nasquack.
Frank = is a Kannekt Klown
it appears you can vote multiple times from the same machine… i just voted eight times and the count increased accordingly.
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/leaderboard.php
Where is Upper Haughtyville?
This is where Graydon and his sister Lainey reside. And their best friends at Leona Helmsley Middle School are Mathis and Gracelyn.
#234 gary: Do not forget Trey and Madison.
you also have Trip and Jordan
#229 Not on Wall St Frank. Otherwise JPM, would be keeping msot of the Bear employees, instead of dumping them.
jlx (227),
The history shows it was listed on 1/25/2008 for $575,000 and then withdrawn on 4/9/2008.
Tax records do not show a deed transfer (purchase) date, just the following:
Mortgage $485,000 7/1/1998 BANK OF NY
Mortgage $80,000 1/5/1999 SUMMIT BK
Mortgage $150,000 10/10/2000 SUMMIT BK Mortgage $265,125 5/21/2003 WORLD SVGS BK FSB
Taxes: $6,622
Blue ribbon schools in Upper Haughtyville. Just dont drive on the southern side of Haughtyville, it borders Urbanblightville…very dangerous!
3b,
And Fisher and Macy, too.
re: (218) SG
I may have posted this earlier but the people behind angry renter aren’t being honest about what they do:
For the record: this is an astroturf campaign. It has the appearance of some gritty grassroots uprising, but it’s actually a campaign coordinated by the FreedomWorks Foundation (previously known as Citizens for a Sound Economy). Their board of directors is headed by Steve Forbes and Dick Armey. It’s great, About Us includes this line “A lot of us rent, too! And we all hope to be able to own someday.” Yeah, Steve Forbes rents…
Now, they may have a point, but let’s not get confused about their motivations. They just don’t like taxes. Period.
#240 I like those. But please do not forget Harrison and Devon.
Sean, so what you’re saying is that how you get somewhere is more important than the destination?
What’s the worst thing that could happen if this thing has any impact on politics?
thanks rich… address?
Hope Alliance program is talked about on the Irvine Blog but nothing comes up on google?
Any info? Help?
Where are the other 175 people who voted? Are you the silent majority on this blog?
241 Sean
well made point.
I’m not a fan of Dick Armey, except when he agrees with me.
Frankly (no pun intended), I think he’s still after Senator Barney, for whom he once “accidentally” used the British slang for a cigarette (no, not “butt”).
i just voted 15 more times
Hope Now, a national alliance of major lenders designed to reduce mortgage delinquencies by helping borrowers renegotiate their loans.
See post 50
Pat – I think Sean was just providing a bit of disclosure – as far as I recall (and correct me if I’m wrong, Sean), he’s not a screaming lefty himself, so I don’t think he was objecting on principal.
248 jlx
you go!
My machine won’t let me do that even with deleted cookies – was planning to try my machine at home…
Interesting stock market. Today the WSJ announces the housing bubble is over and productivity is way up and the market goes down over 1%. Yesterday, UBS and FNM announced atrocious numbers and the market rallied.
3B/gary
What about Madison and Jayden?
252 Stu
That must relate somehow to the “Clear Skies” initiative. Or Mission Accomplished.
Orwell would be proud, and Superman is struck down, because we live in Bizzarro World now.
Jeebus – that’s quite a bit of spelunking in the Dow these last few minutes.
Oil at $123.50
Inching ever closer to $40
jlx, #233
shush :)
Njpatient,
Jayden is a little, blond-haired d*ck. His cousin got a kitten for her birthday and jerky Jayden swung the poor thing around by it’s tail and ripped the g*d d*mn thing off. The poor animal bled to death. The little b*stard.
Merrill Expects U.S. Consumer Loan Defaults to Rise
Closter
SLD 9 MAPLEWOOD RD $1,400,000 4/7/2004
ACT 9 MAPLEWOOD RD $1,799,999 3/7/2006
EXP 9 MAPLEWOOD RD $1,799,999 12/31/2006
ACT 9 MAPLEWOOD RD $1,699,999 8/22/2007
ACT* 9 MAPLEWOOD RD $1,699,999 3/19/2008
U/C 9 MAPLEWOOD RD $1,699,999 3/25/2008
SLD 9 MAPLEWOOD RD $1,500,000 5/7/2008
1.74% return per year
——–
When you don’t get real about your asking price…
Ho-Ho-Kus
ACT 174 N FRANKLIN TPKE $549,000 4/4/2007
PCH 174 N FRANKLIN TPKE $529,900 4/28/2007
PCH 174 N FRANKLIN TPKE $499,000 5/31/2007
PCH 174 N FRANKLIN TPKE $454,000 8/23/2007
EXP 174 N FRANKLIN TPKE $454,000 1/1/2008
New agent & broker listing
ACT 174 N FRANKLIN TPKE $399,900 1/6/2008
ACT* 174 N FRANKLIN TPKE $399,900 4/18/2008
U/C 174 N FRANKLIN TPKE $399,900 4/25/2008
SLD 174 N FRANKLIN TPKE $325,000 5/7/2008
——-
Wood Ridge
SLD 170 HELM AVE $385,000 3/1/2005
ACT 170 HELM AVE $445,000 2/23/2006
PCH 170 HELM AVE $439,000 3/27/2006
PCH 170 HELM AVE $429,000 6/19/2006
W-C 170 HELM AVE $429,000 9/28/2006
Relist
ACT 170 HELM AVE $419,000 9/28/2006
W-U 170 HELM AVE $409,000 10/17/2006
Relist
ACT 170 HELM AVE $419,000 5/9/2007
PCH 170 HELM AVE $409,000 8/3/2007
W-T 170 HELM AVE $409,000 9/7/2007
EXP 170 HELM AVE $409,000 1/1/2008
Bank Owned
ACT 170 HELM AVE $379,000 1/4/2008
PCH 170 HELM AVE $364,000 2/20/2008
ACT* 170 HELM AVE $364,000 3/20/2008
U/C 170 HELM AVE $364,000 3/26/2008
SLD 170 HELM AVE $330,000 5/7/2008
258 Gary
I would offer my services to Jayden but I don’t see animal torturers or child molesters. Perhaps one of my colleagues might be a helpful referral.
jlx (244),
239 MYRTLE AVE
#253 njpatient: Madison has been noted. Now Jayden that is a good one.
Than we have the situation that I have seen where people give 2 of their children what is essentially the same name.
Sean & Ian, and Sean & Shane, or Shane and Ian. I happen to like these names, but they are all the same name.
Why people would give theri children the same name is a littl perplexing;to em at elast.
rich, do you have an address for 2818601 ? thanks!
“Where are the other 175 people who voted?”
Pat,
The dead, originally from JC.
jlx,
Scroll up about 4 posts
thanks!
Sean: Well, most folks have some interest in promoting any kind of agenda. I am not lefty or righty, just agree with fair solutions.
In fact, I have worked in past with many folks involved in those campaigns. Including Dick Army’s, Barney Frank’s office and even Senator Kennedy’s staff. It’s just nice to see that some politicians are at least trying to reach grass roots with fair reasons and not populist ones.
258 gary
I think I just wet myself…
Very Funny,
David Icke-World Banking System
re. AngryRenter
I thought petitions required valid signatures? How does an online petition work? I’ll sign it in an instant… Also voted…
Thx
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/07/news/economy/frank_omnibus_housing_bill/?postversion=2008050710
It looks like our beloved president is doing something right.
SG,
Discosures are appropriate are they not?
The group of Republicans who run angry renter want nothing less than their own version of moveon.org to combat the Democrats in the next election.
Their first attempt at a viral internet campaign failed and now they are producing videos.
Next thing you know they will be taking out ads on American Idol and have a singing sock puppet hawking their positions.
Humor Off/
Just went down to the ground floor at Varick and Houston. There are more cops than protesters. Maybe 70 people at best. I thought there were going to be arrests and blocked traffic. How anti-climactic!
it appears you can vote multiple times from the same machine… i just voted eight times and the count increased accordingly.
Note: I may have posted this earlier but the people behind angry renter aren’t being honest about what they do:
For the record: this is an astroturf campaign. It has the appearance of some gritty grassroots uprising, but it’s actually a campaign coordinated by the FreedomWorks Foundation
I agree about the dishonesty. I checked out Freedomworks website for NJ issues. Remember last November there was a ballot question asking voters to dedicate 1% of the sales tax to property tax relief? Freedomworks tried to convince people to vote against it saying they were trying to raise the sales tax to 8%, which was not the case. Now, I voted “no” because it’s smoke & mirrors and robbing Peter to Pay Paul, but what they did is completely dishonest.
http://www.freedomworks.org/newsroom/press_template.php?press_id=2366
Hey Stu, when you get back upstairs say hi to Mr. Graebner for me.
Extreme Distress:
http://www.nj.com/entertainment/tv/index.ssf/2008/05/pennsauken_man_says_extreme_ma.html
Wow, I thought the 2007 line was scary when it crept across the bottom of the chart last year… That ain’t nuthin!
Offtopic: on track to change offices to the new one within easy/safe bicycle range this summer (3mi of dedicated bike lanes).. No more city wage tax either.. Just hope my job still exists by then :p
“change offices to the new one within easy/safe bicycle range this summer”
**jealous**
awful quiet in here.
Everyone breathlessly watching the market close, or too busy voting for grim?
Vote for the NJrereport!
We’re proud to announce the FHA Mortgage Center.com Best Blogs Contest. Our goal is to highlight the best real estate related blogs on the web. The contest is based on the quality of the content of the blogs so there’s no special post or linking required!
Use this URL to vote!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
NJPatient:
Too funny. So you know where I work on Wednesday.
patient,
the Hudson County vote has come in, and Grim is has buried the competition, 247-84.
Brigadoon parking.
What about motorcycles/scooters? Any dedicated parking for them, or locations where they appear to be left alone?
281 Stu
We can save for the next GTG – I thought that was a reasonably safe thing to throw out there. He was our sales rep back when I was dealing with those guys – not sure if he still is.
Nom, Patient, Too early to discuss a victory celebration for Grim? This feels much like a political campaign, without the requesite BS of course.
283 Nom
couldn’t tell you –
I was just finding myself wondering what kind of mpg one could get in a moped these days.
“Nom, Patient, Too early to discuss a victory celebration for Grim? ”
Wag, I think we have to be vigilant through June 1.
Every time I view the blog voting results, I wheeze-laugh like Grandpa Munster.
http://tinyurl.com/3lyfpf
It reminds me of my brother – a long-time metals trader. He moved his family up to podunk Rhode Island so they’d have a nice moral upbringing.
So, every time I went to visit, we played games like Trivia Pursuit and Monopoly, and his team always won. But everyone always laughed like that. I never figured it out until years later – he had taught them all to cheat like poker players from the age of kindergarten.
But they couldn’t stop laughing while they did it.
Patient, too long to wait, but yes, we must and we will be vigilant through June 1.
“This feels much like a political campaign, without the requesite BS of course.”
Until Russert interviews grim and asks him if he’s gloating at the misfortune of blue collar working class white male heartland Americans (you know, like Tim and his father, Big Russ) who are losing their homes, and while grim’s pondering that one, hits him with the old “what should voters conclude about you based on your association with Clotpoll?”
288 Pat
too funny
“U.S. consumer borrowing jumped more than double the amount economists forecast in March, indicating a slowing economy is forcing Americans to accumulate credit-card and other forms of debt.”
“Consumers are turning to credit cards after banks tightened standards for home-equity loans and other borrowing. The March figures brought U.S. consumer borrowing in the first quarter to $34 billion, the most since the first three months of 2001, when the economy entered its last official recession.”
“A few years back banks would lend to anyone who could fog a mirror,” said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research Corp in New York. “Now, banks are reluctant to lend to anyone.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSN4AbFYIoCc&refer=home
#283 Are you daft man? Motorcycles? Scooters? In Brigadoon? That would absolutely send the wrong message about the town.
And then what we will have? Men who wear white scarves named Fabio waiting for the train to take them to their Wall St jobs?
voted. way above the runner up!
I may have to get me one of these:
http://www.scooterdepot.us/Scooters-50cc-Gas-Motor-Mopeds-p-320.html
patient,
Scooters. HMMM. I need to book a trip to Bermuda.
“way above the runner up!”
heh – also in 24th place.
# 127 “Their recent studies said only 28 to 30 children would be generated by every 100 homes built.”
Ahhhh, and I always thought intercourse had something to do with it. Maybe the Chinese should just tear down houses to lower the population growth.
# 263 “I happen to like these names, but they are all the same name. ”
Tell it to the, what, ten George Foremans?
Grim #61…it was me being sarcastic when i said help, you are correct, they are looking to make a buck
sorry if a repeat:
Meanwhile, Empro Products, a warehouse in Paterson that makes the numbers on gas price signs, is seeing a rise in interest in its number 4s — meaning gas stations are prepping for gas to reach $4 a gallon. The warehouse has also gotten phone calls for 5s.
http://greenjersey.org/2008/05/06/federal-gas-tax-break-isnt-governors-favorite/
“Jim Rogers says “Abolish the FED” on CNBC 2008.03.12″
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6046520409389956642&hl=en
SAS
The bill temporarily authorizes the Department to purchase FFEL loans originated on or after October 1, 2003, provided those purchases do not result in any cost to the federal government. The Department’s authority to purchase loans under this provision expires on July 1, 2009.
The bill would stipulate that if the Department acts as a secondary market lender, it must ensure that any proceeds paid to a lender are used in a “manner consistent with ensuring continued participation of such lender in the Federal student loan programs.” In other words, it would prohibit lenders from using those proceeds in any other way than ensuring they continue participating in FFELP.
Bush signed it today and it’s the law of the land.
Let me see I have some moddy AAA rated stdent loan paper and until last week I couldn’t sell them to anyone and today I have two buyers.
The Federal Reserve and the Departmant of Education.
If SLM wasn’t traded in USD dolarrs I would actually think about buying the stock. You know the buyer is teh Fed and the price they’re gonna pay and now all you have to do is sell and most of your competitors went out of business.
I wonder whose gonna pay more the Fed or the Dept of Ed?
http://www.angryrenter.com/
SAS
Did everyone see this?
The Housing Crisis Is Over
By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUX
May 6, 2008; Page A23
The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html?mod=WSJBlog
#304 Ready: It was posted earlier, but thanks. Another cluless cheerleader, whose hedge fund is chock packed with homebuilder stocks.
304 OK, everyone! Nothing left to see or talk about here. Cyril says we can come out from our bunkers!
Ready [304],
…and Chuck Prince was still dancing last year.
reading some financial disclosure and just came across a footnote that Executive X was paid in Euros, and amounts shown are converted into US Dollars for disclosure purposes, assuming an exchange rate of 1/1.366.
Guy got a substantial raise this year!
Bush faults Democrats on housing crisis, energy and taxes
By BEN FELLER, Associated Press Writer 52 minutes ago
WASHINGTON – President Bush on Wednesday criticized Democrats in Congress for their approach to dealing with the nation’s housing crisis and soaring energy prices and called anew for an extension of expiring tax cuts and government wiretapping authority.
ADVERTISEMENT
Bush met at the White House with Republican leaders of Congress and then critiqued the Democrats’ strategy for dealing with major problems.
He pledged to veto a broad housing rescue package moving through the House. The White House contends it is a burdensome bailout that would open taxpayers to too much risk, even though the bill includes some elements the administration supports. Instead, he pushed for an alternative bill backed by Republicans.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi responded with her own critique of Bush’s position.
“American families confronting foreclosure deserve better from the president than a veto threat,” said Pelosi, D-Calif. “They deserve the House’s bipartisan housing plan that will protect the American dream of home ownership.”
The Democrats’ measure, aimed at preventing foreclosures, would have the government step in to insure up to $300 billion in new mortgages for distressed homeowners. A House vote is expected by Thursday.
re: (304)
Quote “Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession.
Quick call up CNBC we got a live one!
This is called “going for broke”.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aeNX9TgSzqXk
U.S. Consumer Debt Rises More Than Forecast in March (Update2)
By Vincent Del Giudice
May 7 (Bloomberg) — U.S. consumer borrowing jumped more than double the amount economists forecast in March, indicating a slowing economy is forcing Americans to accumulate credit-card and other forms of debt.
Consumer credit increased by $15.3 billion for the month to $2.56 trillion, the biggest monthly rise since November, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. In February, credit rose by $6.5 billion, previously reported as an increase of $5.2 billion. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate, such as home-equity loans.
Consumers are turning to credit cards after banks tightened standards for home-equity loans and other borrowing. The March figures brought U.S. consumer borrowing in the first quarter to $34 billion, the most since the first three months of 2001, when the economy entered its last official recession.
“Consumers are strapped as incomes are not keeping up with inflation and this is leading them to rely increasingly on credit to see them through the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. “The days of extracting cash from one’s home to spend on goods and services are long gone.”
Economists forecast an increase of $6 billion in consumer credit for March, according to the median of 34 estimates in a survey conducted by Bloomberg News.
By category, revolving debt such as credit cards rose $6.3 billion during March and non-revolving debt, including auto loans, increased $9 billion for the month, according to the Fed’s statistics.
Household Spending
Total borrowing, a key element of consumer spending, increased at a 7.2 percent annual rate in March after rising at a 3.1 percent pace during February, the Fed said.
Household spending grew at the slowest pace since the 2001 recession in the first quarter, according to Commerce Department statistics. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth.
A Fed report two days ago showed the proportion of banks making it tougher for companies and consumers to borrow approached a record in the past three months.
About half of U.S. banks said they tightened terms on existing home-equity loans, mainly because of declines in home values below appraised values, as well as increased defaults and changes in borrowers’ finances, according to the Fed’s quarterly survey of senior loan officers released May 5.
Late Payments
“A few years back banks would lend to anyone who could fog a mirror,” said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research Corp in New York. “Now, banks are reluctant to lend to anyone.”
Overdue payments at the six largest U.S. credit-card lenders reached the highest since November 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. An average of 4.11 percent of loans were at least 30 days late in February and March, according to reports filed by American Express Co., Bank of America Corp., Capital One Financial Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Discover Financial Services.
General Electric Co. will stop writing new consumer loans for recreational vehicles in North America because financial returns are too low, the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company announced May 5. GE is paring its exposure to consumers in developed economies, though it will still service its existing $3.6 billion loan portfolio mostly in the U.S. and Canada.
In response to criticism from Congress, the Fed released a proposal May 2 to prevent “unfair or deceptive” credit-card lending. The rules would bar rate increases on existing balances and prohibit so-called double-cycle billing that often results in higher finance charges for customers who don’t pay off their balances each month.
For those of you about to get home from work:
Vote for the NJrereport!
We’re proud to announce the FHA Mortgage Center.com Best Blogs Contest. Our goal is to highlight the best real estate related blogs on the web. The contest is based on the quality of the content of the blogs so there’s no special post or linking required!
Use this URL to vote!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
Interesting – looks like the FHA folks are on the ball regarding fair balloting.
Businessweek article,
Your house is so underwater you need a submarine to get in the front door
You’re in better shape if you bought before or after the 2006 peak in prices. Here’s the percentage of homes that are underwater on their mortgages based on when they were bought, according to Zillow:
2003 7%
2004 16%
2005 42%
2006 52%
2007 45%
Las Vegas may look dry, but from the point of view of homeowners, it’s deep underwater. Zillow says that buyers in 2006 posted a median downpayment of just 2%, and since then, home values have fallen 25 percent year-over-year, so 89.9% of homeowners now owe more than their home is worth.
Stockton, Calif., is worse: 95.8%. No wonder it’s known (unofficially of course) as the Foreclosure Capital of the U.S.A.
Zillow report for NY-NJ MSA
http://www.zillow.com/quarterlies/QuarterlyThumbs.htm?msa=New+York+Northern+New+Jersey+Long+Island+NY
From above link,
In NY-NJ MSA Area, number of home buyers with Negative equity,
2005 Q2 – 15%
2005 Q3 – 25%
2005 Q4 – 30%
2006 Q1 – 30%
2006 Q2 – 32%
2006 Q3 – 32%
2006 Q4 – 35%
2007 Q1 – 35%
2007 Q2 – 32%
2007 Q3 – 30%
2008 Q4 – 25%
2008 Q1 – 30%
I think those are very conservative numbers as well as they are probably based on Zestimate. I have found zestimate give much higher value than what houses have sold in last few months.
Another silent majority vote here, great job Grim!
Back to the graphs, # 4. If this chart was a stock, you’d be an idiot to hold once that 5 year, March, support line caved in. Once the support breaks, it will take years to come back. This decline will be much greater and the duration much longer than most can even imagine.
OT – Boomers
http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-walt-babyboomers-blurb,0,1036393.blurb
Patient – Just stopped by to check the board – slow day at work?
I voted twice today.
gary (258)-
Seek help.
#270 SG
David Icke, now there is a name from the past. He was a sports commentator/Anchor from the UK for a show that would be as big as Monday night football or Hockey Night in Canada. I remember he started getting involved with the Green Party, but then he just went off a cliff. He went on a talk show and proclaimed he was the Son of God and then started out with an alien consipiscy theory that is way past Sc1ent0logy.
His Wiki entry is fun reading.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Icke
patient (280)-
I’m starting to get the creeping feeling that the gubmint is using this “vote” to get our personal info and put us on a watchlist.
Wag (285)-
No GTG until Grim’s bagmen come and “take care” of us for making the effort to vote.
New Jersey: vote early, vote often.
patient (290)-
“…what should voters conclude about you based on your association with Clotpoll?”
This guy Grim is such a calculating, political slickster, he’ll no doubt toss me to the vultures faster than if I were Rev. Wright, wearing a suit of roadkill sausages.
Clot (326) – “suit of roadkill sausages” Many have said it, but it is good to have you back.
I wonder:
On the blogosphere Grim’s blog is blowing every other one away right now.
Is it because New Jersey Housing Prices are just starting to drop while California, Florida, Vegas are in the middle of COLLAPSE??
So we are in fact a bit more immune (i would say delayed) compare to other bubbly areas???
Holy sh*t! The contestants on American Idol are singing Steely Dan (Reeling in the Years). Badly.
Quick, I need some blotter acid.
That’s what I get for turning on the f-ing TV.
# Clotpoll Says:
May 7th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
patient (280)-
I’m starting to get the creeping feeling that the gubmint is using this “vote” to get our personal info and put us on a watchlist.
Man you are a bit paranoid – do not worry, you are already on their file.
I would rather believe that they are looking at the number of people who really care
Sorry to all blog owners so far numbers are kind-of low… I would expect few thousands voting for Grim’s blog by now. And in 10’s of thousands total tally. and right now all together, I think, are still below 1000.
M3 has a different opion.
“The US and Europe now have a united desire to see the dollar strengthen against the euro, senior officials have told the Financial Times.”
“Top officials also want to avoid dollar weakness reinforcing the rise in oil prices. They do not think the dollar is the main cause of the rise – oil has gained on days when the dollar has strengthened. But they agree that dollar weakness has at times contributed to oil’s strength.”
“The central banks have not co-ordinated their policies to manage the exchange rate. But policymakers feel communicating the change in relative fundamentals and monetary policies may be effective.” [EDIT, about effective as Isiah Thomas]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ocb4MFkDiAY
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f5097f2-1c6f-11dd-8bfc-000077b07658.html
that’s opinion.
JB,
332 in moderation. Dollar weakness?
x-NAR economist David Lereah speaks to Newsweek, and he comes clean.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/135724
Clot 329 Saw, heard that too. Make mine purple micro dot. The wife made me turn of the news for that. Love Steely Dan. What a butcher job on that tune.
For the Gold Bugs, India will be loading up on 70 tonnes of gold tomorrow when thousands of people will go on a gold shopping spree for Akshaya Tritiya, the birthday of Lord Parasurama, the sixth incarnation of Lord Vishnu.
http://www.goldworld.com/articles/indian-gold-sales/265
320 ‘soosh
lil bit, lil bit.
328 al
Yes as to delayed. No as to immune.
Mrs. Patient and I agree, fwiw, that we see asking prices noticeably down in Brigadoon.
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmMMMMMmmmmmm, roadkill…
321 lost
Ich auch
Just and FYI:
I believe any multiple votes from the same IP address are being deleted. I’ve noticed that the votes have decreased across the board for all “contestants”.
Sean [336],
Who needs Lord Parasurama. We have King Bergabe.
We voted only once each, and I’m proud OF it.
Well, I felt really sorry for “Title Insurance Blog” so I voted for it. Just once. Can you imagine having your blog be “Title Insurance Blog?” Come on, at least call it something like
“Mama Brandy Dolittle’s very own Title Insurance-can-save-your-@ss Blog.”
I can’t believe that vote was deleted.
Who’s Dr. Taffy Wagner, anyway. Taffy, are the one deleting?
340 Rich
I noticed the same.
342 Pat
hee!
I have a big smile on my face thinking of all the folks who see the “New Jersey Real Estate Report” at the top of the list and go to the site…and find the gut-wrenching spin-free chart on April Sales in plain view, above the fold.
I imagine applause from fellow bears, and so many spilled cups of coffee from visiting Realtors.
WSJ
Moody’s Investors President Steps Down
Clarkson’s Exit Marks Highest-Profile Casualty to Date
Over Role of Credit-Rating Firms in Subprime Rout
By AARON LUCCHETTI
May 8, 2008; Page C1
Brian Clarkson, the driving force behind Moody’s Investors Service’s push into lucrative but riskier businesses, is stepping down as president and chief operating officer of the oldest bond-rating firm, the company announced Wednesday.
Mr. Clarkson’s exit, effective by July, marks the highest-profile casualty to date in the controversy over the complicity of credit-rating firms in the subprime meltdown. Mr. Clarkson, 52 years old, once ran the group overseeing mortgages and other structured-finance products, and his stature rose as Moody’s became a major player in analyzing complex securities based on home mortgages.
hope the door doesn’t hit him in the tuckus on the way out.
Pat (343),
Good stuff!