From the Wall Street Journal:
Will Upgrading Your Home Help You Sell It?
Big-Ticket Renovations Lose Value Amid Market Slump; Investing in Curb Appeal
By M.P. MCQUEEN
May 15, 2008
If you’re putting your home on the market anytime soon, you may want to rethink those plans to bump out the kitchen or add an extra bath.
During the housing boom, such ambitious projects would recoup as much as 90 cents on the dollar. Not today. The resale value of improvements in general is sliding, according to experts. In a departure from recent trends, homeowners are getting the best payback from relatively mundane improvements, such as sprucing up the exterior of their house or putting in new windows.
After spending $400,000 remodeling the suburban East Greenwich, R.I., home he bought for $820,000 in 2002, Jonathan Salinger learned he probably couldn’t sell it for more than $1.1 million in today’s market. That’s after posh additions that included landscaping, a pool, an outdoor kitchen, first-floor laundry and mud rooms, and custom cabinetry. As a result, the 45-year-old district manager for a mortgage lender recently decided not to list his house for sale and scratched plans to move the family closer to his children’s private school in Providence.
The slumping housing market has made remodeling much trickier. When house prices were climbing ever higher, buyers knew they could spend big bucks to expand their homes and still make a profit when it came time to sell. But today, a buyer who spends unwisely on remodeling may be simply digging a deeper hole when it comes time to move.
Further complicating the equation: Even though housing prices are slumping, construction prices have continued to climb. That means adding that new bath will cost more, even as it contributes less to the resale value.
…
Nationally, returns for all major home-improvement projects are fetching 70 cents on the dollar, according to a Remodeling magazine survey of real-estate professionals conducted late last year. That’s down from 80 cents in 2004. Back then, a minor kitchen remodel cost an average $15,300 and recovered an estimated 93% if the home was resold within a year. Today, a similar remodel costs $21,100 and would recoup only about 83%.
…
Some elaborate remodels, though, may actually make your home harder to sell, says New Mexico builder Lonny Rutherford. He notes that lenders are nixing higher-than-normal appraisals, and that many buyers are looking for a deal. Even if someone wanted to pay extra, they “would have a hard time financing the house unless they have a lot of cash,” he says.Inferior remodeling work may be worse than none at all. Cheap cabinets and poor workmanship won’t fool buyers as they might have a few years ago, when many had to make snap decisions about buying a house, says Anslie Stokes, a real-estate agent in Washington, D.C.
“Buyers can spot shoddy renovations, and they aren’t willing to pay for it anymore,” Ms. Stokes says.
Frist!
“During the housing boom, such ambitious projects would recoup as much as 90 cents on the dollar.”
So the remodel was a losing proposition even during the boom.
From Bloomberg:
Barclays Profit Falls After $3.3 Billion Writedown
Barclays Plc, the U.K.’s third-biggest bank, said first-quarter earnings declined on 1.7 billion pounds ($3.3 billion) of writedowns caused by losses in credit markets.
Barclays fell as much as 3.2 percent today in London trading after Finance Director Chris Lucas told reporters the company hasn’t ruled out a share sale to replenish depleted capital.
“Earnings momentum is slowing and there is the prospect of significant further writedowns,” said Sandy Chen, a London-based analyst at Panmure Gordon & Co., who has a “sell” rating on the stock. “As for rights issues, I would rather be at the front of the queue than at the back.”
From the Record:
More commuters cycling to work
North Jersey commuters are finding it pays to strap on their bike helmets and leave their SUVs idle in the driveway.
Soaring gas prices are forcing commuters to pump the bike pedals instead of gas tanks. But the cyclists also say they save money on tolls, car maintenance, parking fees and gym memberships. The ride can be quicker and is more enjoyable than in a four-wheeled vehicle, they say.
Paul Boogaert bikes 25 miles from Ridgewood to his SoHo office where he works at Linkbrokers as an institutional broker. He estimates that he saves more than $200 a month in train tickets and saves on gas for his Toyota Sequoia. He also saves time. “My commute is quicker than it would take if I were driving,” he said, of the 90-minute ride.
From the Record:
North Jersey losing several hundred jobs soon
North Jersey faces several hundred layoffs in the coming weeks.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. will complete the closure of its Woodcliff Lake office with the layoff of 42 workers on May 18 and 33 on June 1.
The company said that it is consolidating its subprime loan origination business into one location in Florida as a result of the difficult market.
“We are reducing head count as a result of declining volume,” said spokesman Michael Fusco.
The layoffs were among several recently reported to the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development in line with the federal WARN Act.
Bankrupt Footstar said it will lay off 221 people, starting on June 28 and continuing through the year. The company last week announced that it would dissolve at the end of the year when its contract to run the shoe sales department at Kmart expires.
Footstar, in a letter to the state, blamed the layoffs on the termination of Footstar’s contract with “key customers,” which prompted the company to cease operations at the site. The company is selling its 129,000-square-foot Mahwah headquarters, which it has occupied since 1986.
Chr. Hansen, the Danish maker of natural ingredients for pharmaceutical, nutritional and agricultural products, said it will lay off 45 people on June 28 at its Mahwah plant, which will be closed. The company manufactures savory, dairy and compound blend flavors.
Accoona, the Jersey City-based e-commerce and search Web site, said it will lay off 53 people on June 20 and close its Exchange Place office.
The JPMorgan Chase layoffs are the latest to hit North Jersey’s financial services industry. Other financial firms to make cuts in recent months include UBS Services in Weehawken, Morgan Stanley in Jersey City and GMAC Rescap in Parsippanny.
Must say that the smart remods that we have done have transformed the place…and made it a great home….for us….not for a future buyer. But interesting — nevertheless
Nothing more than common sense.
You pay a contractor to do a job, according to your preferences.
If I buy the house from you, why should I pay you more than what it cost you to get the job done?
I can hire the same contractor that you did, and at least get the job done to my own preference. Therefore, I will pay a discounted amount for not having the choice of fixtures and finishes. Or, you can simply look at this as the original owner having paid a “choice premium” relative to the new buyer.
The only time an improvement will recoup an amount greater than the cost of the improvement is when that improvement corrected a major defect that was causing the property to be discounted relative to the market. Typically, these major defects will be of the type that will cause most buyers to not even consider the property. However, the DIY/HGTV/Flip media blitz has almost entirely eliminated this type of “discount”.
Likewise, also important here is the concept of overimprovement relative to market. Doing a $150,000 kitchen remodel to a modest neighborhood cape? You’ll never recoup, no buyer will pay you back.
From CNBC:
Foreclosure Fallout: Condo Owners Pay for Neighbors
Barbara Sanz has never missed a mortgage payment, but the plunge in real estate is punishing condominium owners like her anyway.
Four years ago, she bought her first condo in a glassy new Miami tower when the building was filling up. Now nearly one in six residents in the 43-story building is battling foreclosure and their contributions to the building association are shrinking.
Each of the remaining owners has had to chip in an extra $1,000 assessment and $50 more a month for cable and Internet. That is on top of Ms. Sanz’s $450 monthly maintenance fee.
Even though she pays more, her building has broken washers and dryers and unusable exercise equipment, and her hallway is spotted with mold.
“It’s not fair,” said Ms. Sanz, a 32-year-old event planner. “The first two years, I enjoyed all of the benefits of living in a condo. I’m disappointed now. I hate the way the building looks.”
When people buy condos, they expect their monthly fees will cover many of the responsibilities that they would otherwise have as owners of single-family homes, like cutting the grass and paying the water bills.
Now many find themselves nagging each other in the hallways to pay their assessments and adding special fees while haggling over chores.
The worst kind of seller is the one who paid too much for a remodel, too long ago, and wants to be compensated for it today.
I love walking into that freshly remodeled kitchen, circa 1996, and having the listing agent/owner tell me all about every detail of the remodel, with special attention paid to the cost. Dated cabinetry, appliances, tile, knobs, countertops, etc. Now, back in the day, this place was the talk in the neighborhood. But today? A gut-job.
All the while, entirely ignoring the concept of depreciation.
Yes, ma’am, I think that pink Formica is beautiful, it goes oh-so-well with the floral wallpaper on the ceiling.
The life of a kitchen or bath remodel, today, is probably 10-15 years. Thus, for each year of use, the remodel amount should probably be discounted by 7-10%, and a greater amount if preferences change.
OUCH. Back to the 70’s or worse? Any geologists looking for a side job?
“Paul A. Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned on Wednesday the United States could face a 1970s-style period of skyrocketing inflation if investors lost confidence in the buying power of the dollar.”
“If there is a real loss of confidence in the dollar, then I think we are in trouble. That is something that has to be watched.
“That has to be very much in the forefront of our thinking. Without that, we are back to the inflation of the 1970s or worse,” Mr. Volcker said”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/business/15joint.html?_r=2&scp=3&sq=hedge+funds&st=nyt&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Zimbabwe introduces half-a-billion dollar note
AP photo of the note.
http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/afp/20080515/capt.cps.nel17.150508105051.photo00.photo.default-512×307.jpg?x=400&y=239&sig=cYe7W.73wu8apUoy4YE62g–
FXC
FXC
i look forward to the Billion dollar US note. 5 maybe 10 years out? ;)
“PRICED TO SELL ! ”
…shut the heck up. I was just looking at some new listings this morning. I hate listings that include such nonesense.
“If there is a real loss of confidence in the dollar, then I think we are in trouble. That is something that has to be watched.
The question now is not IF, but WHEN.
Grim-
Over improvement has been on my mind. I can’t figure out what sort of stuff a 40-100K basic condo should have. When I look at the same apartments on realtor sites they all have like all the mc mansion stuff even though the kitchen is tiny.
Your supposed to aim for about what everyone else has done in the same market and then a little nicer?
From MarketWatch:
U.S. May Empire State index falls to -3.2 vs 0.6 April
Manufacturing activity in the New York area deteriorated slightly in May, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. The bank’s Empire State Manufacturing index fell to negative 3.2 in May from 0.6 in April. This is the third month in the last four that the index has been negative. Readings below zero indicate contraction. The report was weaker than expected. Economists were expecting to be essentially flat in April.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. initial weekly jobless claims rise 6,000 to 371,000
U.S. continuing weekly jobless claims rise 28,000 to 3.06M
U.S. 4-week avg. continuing claims highest in 4 years
Very rarly a property leaves me almost speechless. All I can say to this is WOW.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?lid=1096135420
Quick, get that guy whose goosing the CPI/PPI numbers over to the unemployment department.
Not sure if this was posted yet.. Philly.com:
No rebound in home prices until 2010
If you’re concerned about the slide in home prices, a new survey won’t make you sleep better.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia asked 50 professional forecasters for their projections for home prices. They don’t see a rebound until 2010.
Now different forecasters use different measures of home prices. Those who rely on the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index said that measure would stop declining significantly in the second quarter of 2009.
Those who the house price indexes compiled by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight are a little more optimistic, forecasting the end of the steep decline in the first quarter of 2009.
Case-Shiller collects data for 20 major metropolitan markets, but Philadelphia is not one of them.
#2njpatient: That is exactly what I was thinking.
Just a quick note regarding S&P Case Shiller, and only because the media seems to get this wrong.
There seems to be a trend where S&P Case Shiller is criticized for ignoring large parts of the country. This criticism is unfounded, as the National Index includes all 9 Census Divisions. However, it stems from confusing the Composite Indicies with the National Index. The Composite and MSA/Area Indicies are released monthly, while the National HPI is released Quarterly.
The Composites and National are different indicies.
Media: Please stop confusing the Composite for the National (and vice-versa).
#7 grim:Doing a $150,000 kitchen remodel to a modest neighborhood cape?
I have a friend who did that (100k) kitchen remodel, in a modest cape.
Meanwhile the rest of the house is old and tired, bathrooms ancient, and the bedrooms covered in paneling all old windows. Would have been much better to spread that 100k out through out the house.
#10 BC Bob Note to Mr. Volcker, please tell Mr. Bergabe.
3b,
Like I’ve said before, those kinds of improvements require “hard to spend” dollars.
It is very easy to spend money on fancy cabinetry, countertops, and the latest appliances. Why? You see them every day, they are conspicuous, when friends are over they’ll notice. Deck and pool, those dollars just fly efforlessly out of your wallet, you might even smile when you sign them away. Dare I say it, it might actually be *FUN* to spend these dollars.
But to spend money on windows, upgraded electric, a new boiler?
It hurts to spend those kinds of dollars, even though you are probably more likely to recoup those.
The employment agency has the whole (birth)/death squard working for them. Every department has its own set of consistent performers.
Attention bloggers:
I just received 4 field level tickets to the Mets game at 1:30pm today vs. the Washington Nationals. Anyone wanna tag along? I think I have club passes and free parking as well, although I’ll be taking the 7 or the LIRR out to Shea.
#20 PGC: SHHHHHH you are going to wake gary up.
grim/richnj: When one of you guys get a chance, can you please check the sales history and taxes for njmls 2800327.
This is the one I was talking about yesterday. Thanks as always.
wow, we reallyare the beacon of justice and freedom in the world today
Some Detainees Are Drugged For Deportation
Immigrants Sedated Without Medical Reason
by Amy Goldstein and Dana Priest | Washington Post Staff Writers
The U.S. government has injected hundreds of foreigners it has deported with dangerous psychotropic drugs against their will to keep them sedated during the trip back to their home country, according to medical records, internal documents and interviews with people who have been drugged.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/specials/immigration/cwc_d4p1.html
#21 – Quick, get that guy whose goosing the CPI/PPI numbers over to the unemployment department.
I agree, he should be fired ;)
From MarketWatch:
Countrywide must face shareholder lawsuit, judge says
A federal judge in Los Angeles has ruled that besieged mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. must face a shareholder lawsuit against 14 current and former top executives and board members that alleges the company engaged in risky lending practices that led to its collapse this fall. “It defies reason, given the entirety of the allegations, that these committee members could be blind to widespread deviations from the underwriting policies and standards being committed by employees at all levels,” wrote Judge Mariana Pfaelzer of Federal District Court in Los Angeles. Countrywide lost millions of dollars on bad bets in the subprime mortgage market and shareholders have watched its stock price plummet in recent months from a high of around $45 to a low of under $4.
20 –
de gustibus disputandum est
grim 27,
perhaps the reason that the market has not responded like you thought it might given the rapid rate of information dissemination now is due to psychology. psychology has not accelerated even if the “interweb” has.
is that not one of the classic conundrums of economics? the assumption of rational individuals? how rational are the IO/NINJA loan bag holders?
#27 GrimBut to spend money on windows, upgraded electric, a new boiler?
Actually those are the things that appeal to me. I get it from my Dad.
#10 BC Bob Note to Mr. Volcker, please tell Mr. Bergabe.
3b,
I am calling BC, asking for a refund, regarding my past tuition. I was taught, the traditional method of fighting inflation was to hike rates and slow the growth of money supply.
Bergabe has proven that BC was wrong. I want my $ back.
Charlotte named best place to live
I guess southern towns are picking up these titles due to affordable cost of living. It’s pretty interesting though. Last week was in Raleigh area, you can see from the air the staggering amount of new development that is happening.
Met an old friend at his CHC SFH home, which is probably half the price the home in NJ. And of course property taxes and insurance are much less as well. Another colleague of mine moved from 800 sq ft NYC condo to 4000 sq ft Mansion. Apart from housing, all other consumer goods and services costs are almost similar to NJ though. Rush hour traffic is getting bad now a days.
“Barclays Profit Falls After $3.3 Billion Writedown”
That CAN’T be true! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!!
In Pictures: Inside TV’s Real-Estate Boom
One real estate-related industry has proved surprisingly resilient to the market bubble popping: home and garden television shows. Networks emphasizing the joys and financial benefits of setting concrete pavers, taping drywall and valuing real estate are riding out the downturn with no signs of flagging.
Home Makeover for Extreme Addiction
41 SG: I think even those annoying shows will eventually fall.
That market is doing fine people! Just in from Zillow via email this morning:
—————————————-
Home Value Trends in Chatham
According to Zillow’s latest Home Value Report, home values in Chatham increased 2.5% in the first quarter of 2008, compared to the first quarter of 2007. Nationally, single-family home values decreased 7.5% while condo values declined 9.0% during this same period.
—————————————–
I wonder there they get their numbers from. I have seen some decreases in the last year, not increases. I think their database needs a reality check.
Home prices continue sharp descent
Steep drops in West. Heartland prices stabilize. Bottom line: 7.7% decline in first quarter.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Single-family home prices dropped 7.7% in the first quarter in the largest year-over-year decline since the National Association of Realtors began reporting prices in 1982.
The median sales price fell to $196,300, down 4.8% compared with the last three months of 2007.
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of NAR, attributed much of the record decline to liquidity problems dragging down high-priced markets.
“These are highly unusual results because there were very few jumbo loan originations in the latest quarter,” he said. “So sales are much slower in high-cost areas.”
In California, Sacramento prices plummeted 29.2% to $258,500 compared with last year and Riverside prices fell 27.7% to $287,100. Prices in Las Vegas fell 20.2% to $247,600 and those in Phoenix dropped 15.4% to $222,200.
Now that’s what you call drop!!!
About of a third of the markets did show gains. The best performer in the nation was Binghamton, N.Y., where prices rose 11.8% to $109,700. Then came Peoria, Ill., up 10.4% to $119,000 and Spartanburg, S.C., where prices rose 10.2% to $130,300.
Binghamton, N.Y.: Now that’s a choice for Northeast!!!
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Industrial Production Dropped More Than Forecast
Industrial production in the U.S. fell more than forecast in April, as the slowdown in consumer spending prompted car and appliance makers to cut back.
The 0.7 percent decrease in production at factories, mines and utilities was twice as much as anticipated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, fell to 79.7 percent, the lowest since September 2005, from 80.4 percent the prior month.
A deepening housing slump, restrictions on credit and soaring food and fuel prices have caused consumers and businesses to rein in purchases of expensive items like cars and machinery. Only growing demand from overseas has prevented American factories from declining even more.
“Manufacturing is now showing clear evidence of weakening,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who accurately projected the drop. “We will see a continued slowdown in the economy, but no collapse. The industrial sector isn’t going to escape the slowdown.”
I’m on a nit-pick spree this morning.
If someone takes a sample, and quotes sample statistics, fine.
But don’t make population assumptions using sample statistics without quoting appropriate confidence intervals.
Simply crazy.
If someone quotes the median or average price of sold homes, those statistics apply only to the sold homes, not *ALL* homes in the area. You can not use those sample statistics to make assumptions about the entire population of homes without applying the proper confidence intervals, expressed as a range.
I don’t care if it is Zillow, NAR, or whoever.
It is just a sloppy methodology.
“Although the interior home was upgraded in about the 1970’s it was done with quality workmanship and has been lovingly maintained and is in move-in condition.”
http://www.weehawkennjhome.com/
Check out the TV and carpet in image 8.
The Home Mortgage Frenzy and a Victim.
I’ve recently met a few people who were sucked into this vortex of greed and induced to obtain mortgage financing. I’ll tell you about one of them. Nancy was a retired widow who wanted to buy a small home in the Redmond area but everything seemed too expensive, even the modest homes that she desired. She met a nice lady in a senior singles group who worked as a mortgage broker who told her that she should not be put off by the price. Instead she should look at the amount of the monthly payments and she should gage what she could buy by the amount she would have to pay each month. Prices increased quickly enough that she should view the payments as an investment because when she sold she would make a lot of money on th equity she built up.
The broker ran off some numbers and printed a page showing that her payments would come to $1,334.50 each month. She was told that by renting the basement (which could be used as a stand alone apartment) she could easily afford this.
The Truth in Lending sheet showed that the amount would increase over time but not over $1900. When she called her friend about this she was told that this would not occur for a number of years and that it would be covered by the rent of the improved basement out and anyway she could always sell the house for a profit.
That was two years ago and now she has monthly payments of $3,900, which she cannot afford to make. Foreclosure has been commenced and the house has been listed for six months without an offer. When the foreclosure is completed she will have lost her down payment of $100,000 and installment payments totaling about a third of that. The truth in Lending disclosures were false, but the subprime lender that made the loan is long gone and bankrupt.
There are many people in Nancy position, truly victims of unscrupulous lending practices. I rankle when the “foreclosure crisis” is blamed on greed-driven consumers. Most victims are just people who were not very sophisticated and whose fault was misplaced trust.
#20 PGC…did you notice the realtor’s last name is Martini, maybe she’s had one too many as well
20 PGC
Be nice. That electric stove is a genuine antique. Probably accounts for 70% of the asking price.
I saw the champion updated kitchen recently. The garage doors were de-laminating, the door frames were rotten, and the roof was pretty obviously shot. But, said the agent, the owners had started by updating the kitchen. And so they had–black and white speckled granite countertops had been installed on those 1980’s beige formica cabinets with the oak strips! It was the most expensive listing in the neighborhood, too.
Oh boy! Who knew? There’s no inflation. All you need do is read the headlines in the financial media and listen to the talking heads and you’ve got the story. The trick here of course is, and has been, to drink the Kool Aid of government manipulated inflation data.
This month the featured statistical “look left, run right” was the “seasonal” energy price adjustment which argues that energy demands will be higher at this time of year and that means we need to heavily discount the headline number. Did you ask your gas station attendant for a discount at the pump? If you didn’t get your adjustment just drop a note at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and ask for one. Good luck.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/77351-thursday-outlook-no-inflation-who-knew
Senate Nears Mortgage Deal
WASHINGTON – Senate lawmakers are close to a deal that would expand a government program to insure hundreds of billions of dollars in refinanced mortgages, top lawmakers said Thursday.
“We’re very close,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) said on Fox Business. “We’re very, very close.”
The bill would also overhaul supervision of mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks, an issue that has been a priority for the Bush administration for several years. If the fragile talks collapse, it would become extremely difficult for Congress to move forward with any housing policy package this year.
Sen. Dodd has enough votes on the committee to narrowly pass legislation through to the Senate floor without Republican support, but he said last week that passing a partisan bill could prevent the measure from ever becoming law because Senate Republicans could easily block it.
mls#2020878
43 Old Squires Rd, Hampton Bays, NY
Asking Price $599k as of 05/08/2008
Asking Price $650k as of 04/10/2008
Previously Sold in 2005 for $869k
WOW did this Hampton House take a spanking, it is all redone on almost an acre.
29 Stu
You REALLY know how to hurt a man.
Barclays seizes mortgage opportunity
News from across the pond. I am guessing US banks will follow soon.
37
“Hey – where’s 3B?”
“He’s down in the basement, enjoying his new boiler.”
SG
“Charlotte named best place to live”
Shhh. You’ll wake up Mitchell.
#47 – Check out the TV and carpet in image 8.
Heh. The entryway was beautiful though.
Building Sales Report May Be Bad News for City
By CANDACE TAYLOR
Staff Reporter of the Sun
May 15, 2008
http://www2.nysun.com/real-estate/building-sales-report-may-be-bad-news-for-city/
And my 125 AMP Service. I also like new windows that onen in for easy cleaning.
42 grim
That’s not nitpicking. That should be stapled to the forehead of every journalist covering RE.
kettle1 Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 9:08 am
“…wow, we reallyare the beacon of justice and freedom in the world today
Some Detainees Are Drugged For Deportation
Immigrants Sedated Without Medical Reason
by Amy Goldstein and Dana Priest | Washington Post Staff Writers
The U.S. government has injected hundreds of foreigners it has deported with dangerous psychotropic drugs against their will to keep them sedated during the trip back to their home country, according to medical records, internal documents and interviews with people who have been drugged…”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/specials/immigration/cwc_d4p1.html
———————————
Commanderbobnj sez:
What would you suggest that the immigration service do with unruly illegal invaders, kettle ?—-“(we are a)..beacon of justice and freedom in the world today..” (???) HUH ?—-Try using the word OVERRUN. not to mention tremendous increases in gang related crime and idenity theft from ILLEGALS going through the roof ETC.ETC.—I am surprised that this inert Bush Administration has ‘allowed’ an outfit like ICE to even exist in order to do the bare minimums of enforcement for illegal entry. These people get a one-way ticket back to their own country paid for by the American Citizen–If they go quietly, no one gets medicated..I suggest that the nation from which they came from get BILLED for those ‘shipping’ charges—-I think that would send a strong message to their countries’ leadership.
BOB
47 pretorius
post of the day.
That’s a riot!
Bubble Behavior and Market Panic
He reminds us that the reason financial bubbles are so seductive is that, for awhile at least, everyone associated does pretty well. Homeowners were getting more and more house with easier borrowing terms, lenders were generating profits from ever more creative strategies, and Wall Street was packaging and reselling this stuff to investors all over the world. All the while, Congress and the White House were crowing about ever higher levels of home ownership and participation in the American Dream.
In the wake of a bust, there is always a predictable series of political activities: first, the search for the guilty; second, the fall of previously esteemed heroes; and third, legislation and increased regulation to ensure that “this will never happen again.” But, with time, it always does happen again. Consider in this context the statement of the comptroller of the currency in 1914 that with the creation of the Federal Reserve, “financial and commercial crises, or panics . . . seem to be mathematically impossible.”
The new risk we face is that the regulatory cure proposed by Washington will have it’s own illusions of “innovation” and “creativity” — with a naive belief in the power of government to make any more financial crises “impossible.” Federal bailouts for both bankers and borrowers are on the table. Over-reaction and over-regulation is likely to follow. There will be no discussions about the nature of sin in Congressional hearings, but there will be plenty of demons. Mostly, mortgage lenders. As Pollack observes, it’s all too predictable.
53 SG
We may not have nationalized health care, but at least we have a nationalized mortgage industry!!
Speaking of upgrades, and specifically swimming pools, do they actually add any value? I have a colleague who told me that he just wrapped up a winter long pool/backyard installation to the tune of 60K to his Bucks Co place. I am sure it’s sweet, but I have been in a rental house w/ a pool for the past three years and I now would never buy a place with a pool. Having a pool is a ton of work and cost for maybe three months enjoyment in CNJ. I really love pools, and love to hang out by pools. I guess they are like boats, it’s probably better to have a friend with one than to actually buy one yourself.
Just thought I’d demonstrate the stupidity of the masses that fell for the housing bait for a 5 or 6 year stretch. I have a family member who bought a brand new, all brick, CHC, 3800 Sq. Ft., all hardwood floors in a haughty NW Bergen town in early 2001 with 20% down and a 30yr. fixed. They also have a stream that borders the back of the property where the kids go to feed the fish and ducks. This was just before the madness gates broke wide open. You tell me the price they paid for the house.
Sorry NJPatient.
It looks like I’ll be kidnapping my son from daycare and meeting my exboss at the game. The extra seat will go well when my son conks out and needs a nap. He’s not quite 3 yet. He will love the purple 7 though ;)
I bet ChiFi is jealous too ;)
JBJB
“I guess they are like boats, it’s probably better to have a friend with one than to actually buy one yourself.”
Agree.
Mrs. Patient and I would not buy a place with a pool unless (a) we did not have young kids AND (b) we did not live in the Northeast. IMO a pool drops the value of a home precipitously. Not to say others wouldn’t pay more.
“He will love the purple 7 though ;)”
Say hi to John Rocker for me.
Zimbabwe introduces half-a-billion dollar note
patient,
Careful you could make Ben jelous!!
“WOW did this Hampton House take a spanking, it is all redone on almost an acre.”
John [54],
Please pass on to Gary.
so my buddy in the construction/renovation business in NYC has finally capitulated – he was a “Manhattan is immune” fellow as recently as three months ago.
Yesterday: “business is pretty bad.”
This is a guy who’s been doing this since the early ’90s, buying apartments/brownstones, renovating, and turning them over.
Editorial: Bush, Congress must act to quell foreclosure crisis
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the plan could result in refinancing of up to 500,000 homes over five years, costing taxpayers $1.7 billion to cover loans that end up in default.
Helping a half-million homeowners stay in their homes would represent significant progress. And spending $1.7 billion to help folks on Main Street would be chump change compared with the $29 billion the Federal Reserve ponied up to bail out Bear Stearns.
But President Bush threatened a veto even before the House voted. And the administration’s reliance on the lending industry’s voluntary steps to help distressed homeowners hasn’t stabilized the market. HopeNow, an industry alliance created in December, modified 131,522 subprime loans in the first quarter.
There should be a middle ground between underwriting a broad bailout for homeowners and staving off disaster for the economy. Inaction is not an option.
And I though Editorial were supposed to represent intelligent commentary. It seems like RE advertisements are affecting editor’s job as well.
#70 njpatient: Pools are nice, but would not want the head ache and upkeep.
Next house will have a hot tub, I am partial to hot tubs
Techies worried about out sourcing? Naah! BLS thinks you will do just fine.
BLS expects a whopping 325,000 new jobs for computer software engineers through 2016.
http://education.yahoo.net/degrees/articles/featured_8_sure_fire_hires.html
Pret – that is an outstanding snapshot of the 30’s, ’40’s, 50’s and 60’s. And maybe some 70’s. Love the gilt. Love the plastic covers on the sofa in the parlour. Part of that house could be run as a museum.
Looks like good bones though.
Philly Fed contracting as well..
From MarketWatch:
U.S. May Philly Fed -15.6 vs. -24.9 in April
From Bloomberg:
Manufacturing in Philadelphia Region Shrank in May
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank in May for a sixth month in a row as orders continued to drop.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index improved to minus 15.6, better than forecast, from minus 24.9 in April, the bank said today. Readings less than zero signal contraction. The Philadelphia Fed’s general economic index averaged 5.1 in 2007.
The biggest housing slump in a quarter century is reducing demand for construction gear, pickup trucks and appliances as business and consumer spending cool. The survey is in line with another report today that showed manufacturing production nationwide fell last month by the most since September 2005.
Wait a minute if you buy a used house with a pool already in it you get the cheaper price. In reality, if you really want a pool it is best to avoid putting one in as it costs a lot to put in and decreases value, buy a house that has one already and it is a win win.
Mrs. Patient and I would not buy a place with a pool unless (a) we did not have young kids AND (b) we did not live in the Northeast. IMO a pool drops the value of a home precipitously. Not to say others wouldn’t pay more.
I guess I’m in with the friends with a pool. My brother and parents just put in an inground pool, brick oven/bbq, and an outdoor kitchen. I will make very good use of it. But I’m glad I didn’t have to pay for it all. Like I said, SI is like living in an episode of The Sopranos but paying half the taxes.
John,
How do you figure that an inground pool deceases the value of a home. I beg to differ.
Apologies if this was posted… it appears that the bailout is being trusted to mortgage servicers. Asking paper pushers and check collectors to implement the bailout is a recipe for disaster. Good luck re-training low level back office employees to do jobs that require thought and analysis.
Why Homeowners Aren’t Getting Help
We have an above ground pool and have had pools in the past growing up. There is constant maintenance, accessories and chemicals for opening and closing the pool, daily maintenance when the pool is open as well as the electricity used to run it at least 8 hours per day if you don’t want it to look like a swamp.
The cost and the maintenance to operate compared to the time it is opened and used is not worth it. If you look at a house that’s for sale with a pool, run the other way. It’s another scam status symbol that drains resources while trying to impress family and friends. Find a pool to join for the summer or a friend or family member who has a pool, you’ll be better off.
what is more dumb– a house or a pool? I would like to have one or the other.
Also, Sen. Dodd is a fool.
78 ‘soosh
“Looks like good bones though.”
I didn’t remark on that aspect of it as I was responding to pretorius’s particular remark, but looking beneath some of the Smithsonian “how they lived” aspects of it, it’s a stunning property.
I ment– a boat or a pool
make money
It will increase the assesment for sure, so your taxes will go up. But it shrinks the “pool” of available buyers.
81 john
I don’t disagree with that bit of deft logic – what I was inartfully trying to express was that we don’t want a pool.
njpatient Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 10:22 am
“…so my buddy in the construction/renovation business in NYC has finally capitulated – he was a “Manhattan is immune” fellow as recently as three months ago.
Yesterday: “business is pretty bad.”
This is a guy who’s been doing this since the early ’90s, buying apartments/brownstones, renovating, and turning them over…”
————————————-
Commanderbobnj sez:
The contractor business is bad all over both in New York and New Jersey.- What is basically happening is most old work construction that was sold last year is being finished up as we speak. Very few new jobs are being lined-up. The days of most ‘trades’ people shifting their time between one job site to another (and pi$$ing-off the homeowner) is a thing of the past. Most electricians, plumbers, masons, etc. small {one-to-six man) operations are taking-on whatever they can get:– Bidding on Jobs that they would NEVER do in ‘good-times’.-
The homeowners are putting small/big projects on hold. Seems that only emergencies and ‘must-do’s’ are being funded and Bergen County is definitely not immune to what is going on ..
The contractors who relied on homebuilders to provide work for them are really ‘in a hole’ since new construction has slowed-down tremendously. I think that there are going to be a few hundred contracting businesses going out-of-business this year if the economy does not improve by the next few months…Only the “Strong will survive”.
Bob
Goodbye Granite
Sayonara Stainless
Let em burn
(47) Pretorius
This house is around the block from me. My wife and I looked at it over 1 year ago.
The house is owned by the children of deceased parents. The parents lived there since the 1940s. The only renovation they did in that time was strip off the old shellac from the Victorian molding and re-apply a green tinted polyurethane. I would estimate visual remodel on this house at $200,000, on the low end and that does not include the exterior or grounds-both of which are a mess.
Oh, by the way, they converted the basement, second floor and attic into apartments. They put a washer\dryer in one of the second floor bedrooms and guess what: the floor is warped (flood?) I don’t think it is ever a good idea to put a wash room on the second floor of a house (it’s amazing how many times I see this as a selling feature in homes that I have viewed.)
Anyway, this house has great space and could truly be grand if you could get it for the right price plus have the vision and coin to make it happen. Regards.
[68] They paid somewhere between 400 and 500K?
Make [83]
I am not sure if a pool lessens the value of a home, but it doesn’t really add value either. It may also limit the number of potential buyers, as people w/ small children (who are common home shoppers) may avoid pools due to safety concerns. Also, those who are aware of the constant upkeep and cost will also avoid homes with pools.
jam [94],
Not quite that low. :)
I would never install a pool. I would consider buying a home with a pool (in ground – not interested in the above ground – aka the house mullet).
My wife however is not interested in one at all because we have small children.
So in our case it doesn’t lessen the value it simply takes the house out of consideration.
Now, someone mentioned a hot tub. Never had one, but I guess I would consider it depending on the expense and the upkeep.
Ok, Gary you have to tell me.
At a beach house or a multi million dollar house it may increase value. But I see a lot of 60 by a 100 to 100 by 100 plot houses with this nightmare pool taking up the yard and no one with young kids or older people want as it is either dangerous or a lot of work and does not leave much of a yard. Plus inground pools raise your taxes
I have an old above ground 21 round pool in my yard that came with the house. The kids love it but I get grief everytime I mention when it goes I want to rip it out. I keep telling my wife a pool does not add value. But women don’t listen to men it is in their gene pool. Maybe cause 90% stupidity comes out of our mouths they are tuned out for the 10% of the time we say things that make sense.
moncrasmake money Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 10:41 am
John,
How do you figure that an inground pool deceases the value of a home. I beg to differ.
grim – finally got around to sending you email.
Ok Gary 650?
grim #27: That’s the only kind of dollars I’ve spent. This year my big home expenditure is going to be insulation and finishing my cabinet refacing in the kitchen by buying new drawer boxes. Maybe if I save enough cash I’ll buy a range, have a new laminate countertop put in and a new laminate floor.
Two years ago this plan made me a schm*ck. Today it makes me a freakin’ genius.
68 c’mon gary the suspense is killing us… :-)
sl
Yeah Gary come on. I say $210.
#8 This is just what we were talking aboit the other day.
I’ve dealt with a lot of small contractors over the past fwe months. While things have slowed, a lot are Cops/Firefighters that are using the slowdown to go fishing or improve their golf game. My main contractor is about to go MIA. He’ll spend the summer working union contracts with the schools. When the schools close, they start the big maintainance jobs.
“Also, Sen. Dodd is a fool.”
You meant to say Sen. Dodd is a total nar.
What a nar!
#105 shore guy
Financial illiteracy hurts everyone except for the wolves doing the fleecing.
91 commander
Thanks for the overview – note that the fellow I was referring to is both the homeowner and the contractor in all cases – he’s buying brownstowns around town, kicking out the tenants, completely renovating and putting back on the market. So his issue is not so much one of getting employed to do the labor, as on that score he is his own employee, but it reflects that he’s no longer getting the flip value – prices aren’t rising sufficiently any longer, he says, so now all he’s getting is the value of his labor. And if that’s all he’s getting, it’s not worth the leverage risk to buy the building. So he’s trying to get in an all cash position and hump through the downturn by relying on his positive cash-flow rentals (yeah, he’s also a landlord) and just doing simple renovations for anyone who hires him (i.e., doing what you’re describing; as you say “Bidding on Jobs that they would NEVER do in ‘good-times’.-“).
92 bairen
How long ’til the general public finds the granite/stainless look to be dated? Couple years?
96/97 JBJB/jam
Collectively said what I had been meaning to say. Agreed (including as to the hot tub).
#110 njpatient: I thought it was dated 3 or 4 years ago.
Funny though how these 2 items appear to be going from items of taste and affluence, to items of cliche and ridicule.
post [68]: The price was $685K.
Again, this is a NW Bergen town. Normal appreciation would have this house listing for around 890K today. But, since the majority of the proletariat have no restraint or patience and enabled themselves to be husked and ravaged like an ear of millet, the house would now list for 1260K (that’s $1,260,000) which, ultimately, f*cked it up for those of us who do act prudently and have (had) patience.
#113 gary: You just need a little more patience.
3b,
Unfortunately, it’s gone. :)
That still doesn’t stop us from having a beer fest, though.
Hey Gary thanks. You just made me feel a whole letter better about a purchase I am in the process of making. Since I’m superstitious I can’t divulge the details.
jam,
Good luck to you, I hope it was for a price that worked to your advantage.
How long ’til the general public finds the granite/stainless look to be dated? Couple years?
I put them in the same frame as 80’s black silver and pink walpapers with wall to wall carpet and black laquer furniture.
Counter tops have to be made out of something.
I don’t think neutral granite will ever be “out”.
But the next best thing . . . I am betting its lava rock counters.
How do people feel about butcher block?
I think granite will be fine. Stainless isn’t bad, i like the industrial look in the kitchen.
Now what about those people that asked for poured cement counters and bamboo flooring.
63- A1H2 it’s a lower dose than usually used in the Psych hospital where A2H5 is used for Psychotic agitation.
The second does mentioned 15 Mg is a very substantial dose.
#115 gary: No it does nto> I look forward to it at some point.
Stainless?
Fingerprints!
“How do people feel about butcher block?”
I’m rather fond of it, actually.
njp,
I’m rather fond of it, actually.
You’re such a NAR. :o
I JUST SAW THIS NOW……..@$&@(*_%&#*%&@$&+(@!)*&$!#*&@)(%*_(%&#@*$)&@!_$#&*!(#&$#_(*@!&$_*($&(@#$_*(&@!$#_*!#*&_+!@*+~*@()*#(+@)$&**^&+!#@*!)(+@*(+&#!+&$@(&@_#*(+!)*#)(+!~@(+$(*@_*%(@#*&%+@(#*$E+@_!
Stu Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Sorry NJPatient.
It looks like I’ll be kidnapping my son from daycare and meeting my exboss at the game. The extra seat will go well when my son conks out and needs a nap. He’s not quite 3 yet. He will love the purple 7 though ;)
I bet ChiFi is jealous too ;)
Ben urges banks to raise capital…
Bernanke’s trying to show calm, but have you seen the Fed’s balance sheet lately?
It’s half full. About 500B of the original 900B. Yes these banks better raise some capital or else the Fed’s balance sheet is going to zero. Benanke’s running out of bullets
John, RayC,
I sold 3 homes with pools and yes while it shrinks the pool of buyers it also sells the home for more money.
The young families with the kids are the one’s that overpay, while they have no idea of the work it takes to maintain the pool they picture in their head swimming with their kids and having great family fun hence they’ll pay on average 20K-30K for an inground pool and a nice looking deck/patio for entertainment.
my two cents.
Re: Pools
If its mostly going to be used by the Kiddies, get one of those $300 ones Walmart Sells which are about 4 ft deep and 16 ft wide. The kids will have just as much fun with it as with an in ground pool. You may have to do some site preparation if you don’t already have a suitable level area.
I had a pool guy tell me an in-ground job would cost around 30k. I figure even if I have to replace the pool every few years until my kid outgrows it, I’ll still be about 28k ahead of the game.
I not so worried that it’s a “house mullet.” My consolation is seeing that extra money in my kid’s college fund.
So much for NYC and the prestigious Nassau county being immune to this housing collapse.
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzmort0515,0,3317971.story
Just walk away and stick to the “man”
SG (39)-
Please do not print material that will further incite Mitchell.
I cringe to think what he will do when he sees your post.
We are in for some lengthy and turgid posts…
“while they have no idea of the work it takes to maintain the pool they picture in their head swimming with their kids and having great family fun hence they’ll pay on average 20K-30K for an inground pool”
Agreed, this was us before we rented a house w/ an inground. Then I realized you actually spend more time claning the thing than you do sitting beside it. There is a fine line between a glistening pool of beautifal water and a mosquito infested swamp. Your summer will turn into a battle for the former.
Home builders say only subsidy can turn market around
U.S. May home sales index falls to record low
U.S. May home builders’ index falls to 19, 4-month low
47 Pretorius
#9 is my favorite. The low hanging light just waiting to be smashed by someone’s forehead, the metal folding chairs mixed in with the brown-but-not-matching-with-the-room-brown.
Looking far back in the picture: is that microwave hanging off the counter? And what’s yellow back there?
grim/richnj: Cany one of you guys please provide me with last sales price and taxes on njmls 2800327. Thanks.
#47 Pret
Awwww cmon 1.1 mil fot this?????? See now the Owner is just plain DELUSIONAL!! Move-in condition okay but you still need to put money (update kitchen, baths, take down wallpaper, you name it) into the house so it can catch up to the current year.
“Home builders say only subsidy can turn market around”
Singing the same tune as the IB’s, lenders, ratings agencies, federal govt, state govt, municipalities, and the strapped consumer. To hell with the dollar, give everybody 500K.
Got Molson, Eh?
#137 Move-in condition okay but not for the 1.1million price tag while you still have to put money into the place for updates!!
#132 clot: I see Rangers supporters went on a rampage in Manchester yesterday, after their defeat in the Uefa cup final against the Russina team.
In an ever changing world……..
make
“The young families with the kids are the one’s that overpay”
I’m one of those families with young kids, and a pool eliminates a house from consideration for me. Furthermore, I wouldn’t consider buying a house that’s NEXT TO a house with a pool.
while bush is asking saudis to put more oil production, cheney is polling the trigger at white house basement. he is not only dangerous to his hunting mate but to oil speculators:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USO#chart4:symbol=uso;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
From the NAHB:
BUILDER CONFIDENCE EDGES DOWNWARD IN MAY
WASHINGTON, May 15 – Home builders remained considerably downbeat as market conditions continued to erode in May, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI fell a single point to 19, bringing it within one point of the record low 18 set in December 2007 (the series began in January of 1985).
“With the HMI hovering in the historically low two-point range that’s prevailed over the past nine months, the message is very clear: The single-family housing market is still deteriorating and Congress and the Administration must move immediately to enact legislation that will help reverse the trend,” said NAHB President Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. “A temporary home-buyer tax credit is just the incentive that many prospective home buyers need to go forward with a purchase and help kick-start a housing and economic recovery.”
Both the House and Senate have approved bills creating a temporary home buyer tax credit of up to $7,500 for qualified buyers, but the legislation has yet be crafted into a comprehensive bill that can be sent to President Bush for his signature.
“Despite the Federal Reserve’s concerted efforts to lower short-term interest rates, free up credit markets and shore up the national economy, the housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far. In fact, conditions have continued to deteriorate in recent times,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “The latest HMI shows that even fewer builders now foresee market conditions improving over the next six months compared with our April survey, and builder ratings of buyer traffic through model homes also have dropped off over the past month on a seasonally adjusted basis. This certainly adds fuel to the argument that targeted policy stimulus, in the form of a temporary tax credit for home buyers, is essential to halt the housing downswing and remove the heavy drag being exerted by housing on overall economic growth.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as either “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
The HMI’s component index gauging current sales conditions declined one point to 17 in May — its lowest level since the series began in January 1985. Meanwhile, the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined three points to 27, and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers declined two points to 17.
The HMI fell in three out of four regions in May, with a four-point decline to 18 registered in the Northeast, a three-point decline to 12 registered in the Midwest (also an all-time low) and a two-point decline to 22 posted in the South. The West posted a three-point gain to 20 this month but remained well below the level of a year earlier.
#141nj: Also the person with the pool tends to become the neighborhod baby sitter.
129 # make money Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
I’m one of those people who want a pool, it generally makes a house look more attractive to me, but my wife does not (young kids – safety issue – no way I will argue with that) And I know it is a lot of work for not much use, but if you really want it its not about a cost/benefit ratio. Its about that one 100 degree day that you jump in and have an ice cold beer. The fantasy sells it for me. I’m OK with that.
That said, my sister DESPERATELY wants a pool, and I encourage her to live her dreams.
142 bi
“bush is asking saudis to put more oil production”
Gee – why’d he never think of that before?!?
3b (140)-
“I see Rangers supporters went on a rampage in Manchester yesterday, after their defeat in the Uefa cup final…”
Nothing like a bit of the ultra-violence. Seriously, the SPL screwed Rangers by making them play 5 games in 12 days. Since they were in the running for a quadruple, you’d think the SPL would’ve made provisions to give them some schedule relief…but no.
I TIVO’d that game and watched it last night. As you might expect, ‘Gers had no legs & Zenit ran them off the field. Zenit is also a really good team with a really good coach (Advocaat). That guy will be in the EPL next year, no doubt.
144 3B
And therefore the neighborhood liability magnet.
patient (148)-
I have two lacrosse goals and a full-sized soccer goal…directly aligned with the Andersen bay window of my rear neighbor.
How long will they remain my friends? Hope my daughter doesn’t bean their grandma, then shower her with shattered glass.
47:
Is that REAL aluminum siding, Pret?
Jamey-
I bet that whole joint smells like an ashtray.
Too bad you can’t smell things over the internets.
I would say around 50% of the houses in my neighborhood has an above ground pool, a few an in ground pool. My old pool had no bearing on the price of my home when I bought it. Owner said he would rip it out by closing or it would be a “gift” and he would leave the equipement that went with it and whatever left over chemicals he had. Above ground pools only last 20 years usually and my above ground pool is 25 years old. One good cannon ball and I will be catching a wave all the way out to my front lawn!
My blue collar neighborhood is loaded with them as neighbors can’t afford pool clubs or fancy vacations. However, the rich town next to me no one would be caught dead with an above ground pool and very few have inground pool as they all go to country club pool.
I can say that no one ever comes to my house because of the pool, the kids who like pools all have one and the namby pamby scardycat moms and dads who are afraid to have one in their house are not going to let their kids go in someone else’s pool when they are not even there.
CHC stands for…?
Center Hall Colonial
151:
Maybe it’s a blessing we can’t…
Do you recall a y2k-era startup called iSmell?
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,13263-page,1/article.html#
Their logo was, IKYN, a skunk.
Another area staffing up.
“May 15 (Bloomberg) — Blackstone Group LP, the buyout firm that went public at the peak of the takeover boom last year, posted an unexpected loss of $66.5 million as fees fell in every business, including deal-making, hedge funds and merger advice.”
“Blackstone has been taking steps to put itself in position to take advantage of market dislocation, but this doesn’t look impressive at all,” said Jackson Turner, an analyst with Argus Research Corp. in New York who recommends clients buy Blackstone shares. “Real estate was the biggest disappointment. I expected this segment to be the one saving grace this quarter.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXuMUce2UJ3k&refer=home#
I wonder if we can get homeowners to “upgrade” to PEX for a nominal fee?
Here is the basic business model:
1. Charge the customer a fee for this “upgrade”. Fee would be equal to materials and labor.
2. Remove Copper
3. Install Pex
4. Sell Copper (scrap)
5. Profit!
The single-family housing market is still deteriorating and Congress and the Administration must move immediately to enact legislation that will help reverse the trend,” said NAHB President Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va.
What happened to all that money you guys hoarded from 2000 to 2005? Here’s a professional consultation for free: Eat sh*t and die.
I’m sure it would be easy to mock up a psuedoscientific scare-vertisement calling copper pipe and lead solder poison. Toxic heavy metals in your drinking water! Do it for the kids.
Grim…anyone,
Can you find anything on MLS ID# 2504550 in Pequannock. There was an Under Contract sign up, looks like it’s gone now. This house has been on the market for a long time. Thanks.
3b – A older homeowner once told me…
“Never make friends with your neighbor. You can smile and be friendly towards them, but once you become friends than they will borrow stuff from you, ask you for favors and will come over at strange times.”
The pool gives them more reason to be your “friend”.
I’m on an idea kick today.
How about a firm that specializes in leasing rooftop space to utility companies for solar.
Commercial and retail property owners get additional monthly revenue for leasing the roof space out to solar.
Solar utility companies get a large area of south-facing, solar-ideal, roof space without having to invest the capital in purchasing vacant land for solar arrays.
Model would be similar to the one currently used for leasing rooftop space for cellular/communications.
This would be a fun one.
Pool of any kind reduces value of a house for myself and DH, as first-time buyers with no kids.
We’d have to deduct a few thou to rip the dang thing out or fill it in.
We don’t have the time or money to spend sifting leaves and dead animals out of the potential West Nile incubator taking up space in our back yard.
When I was a kid, we went to my grandparents’ house or to the town pool, which was cheap and attracted all of my friends, too. Priceless memories.
A sprinkler or slip n slide (or a few garbage bags on the lawn with a hose) were just as much fun when a pool wasn’t available.
I’m on an idea kick today.
How about a firm that specializes in leasing rooftop space to utility companies for solar.
Commercial and retail property owners get additional monthly revenue for leasing the roof space out to solar.
Solar utility companies get a large area of south-facing, solar-ideal, roof space without having to invest the capital in purchasing vacant land for solar arrays.
Model would be similar to the one currently used for leasing rooftop space for cellular/communications.
This would be a fun one.
I’m on board with this idea.
3b Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
“#132 clot: I see Rangers supporters went on a rampage in Manchester yesterday, after their defeat in the Uefa cup final against the Russina team.
In an ever changing world……..”
Somebody else must have started it. Probably some English *&%$@^(. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Clotpoll Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Jamey-
“I bet that whole joint smells like an ashtray.
Too bad you can’t smell things over the internets.”
I wouldn’t be so sure. I’ve seen a couple of listings where the odor seems to have wafted out of my screen. Maybe some kind of weird osmosis.
[164] Make,
Being done. Schering Plough’s Summit campus is being touted as one of the sites for this.
3b (31),
SLD 265 MONROE AVE $500,000 8/2/2005
ACT 265 MONROE AVE $524,902 8/15/2006
PCH 265 MONROE AVE $518,000 9/8/2006
W-U 265 MONROE AVE $518,000 9/25/2006
Relist
ACT 265 MONROE AVE $484,500 10/13/2006
PCH 265 MONROE AVE $479,900 12/1/2006
ACT* 265 MONROE AVE $479,900 1/16/2007
ARR 265 MONROE AVE $479,900 1/17/2007
PCH 265 MONROE AVE $519,900 1/18/2007
W-T 265 MONROE AVE $519,900 2/10/2007
EXP 265 MONROE AVE $519,900 4/1/2007
2800327
SALE SUBJECT TO BANK APPROVAL
ACT 265 MONROE AVE $499,900 1/2/2008
ACT* 265 MONROE AVE $499,900 2/26/2008
ARR 265 MONROE AVE $499,900 3/6/2008
PCH 265 MONROE AVE $489,900 4/30/2008
PCH 265 MONROE AVE $449,000 5/13/2008
Chifi 127 – Just spoke with em and they’re at the game eating cotton candy and french fries. Our 3 year old is having a blast at his very 1st baseball game. 1 ticket did go unused though : (
A friend of mine who has solar panels had to build extra roof support. Based on the economy, I don’t think you will find it difficult to find construction workers who fit your budget.
re the cost of the pool – My parents put one in 1987. Even back then, $25-30k only really covered the cost of the hole in the ground. Add in fencing, plumbing, electrical, patio and replacing all the landscaping destroyed by the excavation process and they were closer to $50k for a standard, good quality non-liner pool back then.
It is a pain, but that hot tub is still nice…when we VISIT. And we hold our kid’s birthday party there every summer.
I don’t get this stuff about a pool and neighbors. Not a single neighbor of mine has even been in my backyard. Heck growing up in the 30 years I lived their I never once did anything with the neighbors. That is a down south thing. Heck I still laugh when my wife moved into my coop of eight years and asked me what the neighbors name was! Way out in NJ maybe people talk to neighbors. A down south person I knew once commented when they moved to Long Island that everyone already has friends and family and they don’t want anymore so it is hard to meet the neighbors. People jump around neighborhoods as they trade up so they have little interest in being friends with the neighbors. The other thing is who borrows things anymore? Everyone has lawn service, takes their car to the mechanics and has gen contractors take care of home improvements. I fix things but my neighbors would not even know which end of the screwdrive to use.
Re 164 brother in-law worked for a start up that did that, went under last summer. The private equity money dried up and they were told the big money has already been made in solar. He did install a few solar pannels on shopping malls and they thought they could maybe just stay private but then the shopping malls and commerical buildings starting caring about current cash flow and spending money on something that will save them money in the future became a back burner issue. So no private equity money to go public and no clients who wanted to invest in that type of big project, all 25 people got fired.
John,
You must have the richest blue collar neighborhood around…
Even in HS I remember trying to cozy up to some friends who had pools. Sure they were already our friends, but as soon as it got hot everyone started dropping the hints. Though it does serve a purpose for some of the socially inept.
149 clot
see, now THAT I would like
I threaten Mrs. Patient with putting a batting cage in the garage and digging a ballfield in th ebackyard
#168 Rich:SLD 265 MONROE AVE $500,000 8/2/2005
That (500k) is what I thought, just wanted to be sure. Any idea on the taxes? Thanks again.
@147 clot: Agree, but still no excuse for the violence.
BB,
Still status active on GSMLS
#165 lisoosh:That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Works for me. At least it was not Celtic and Rangers fans fighting.
John (172)-
Maybe it’s your breath…
soosh (165)-
Yeah, blame the English. It’s worked well for the past 700 years.
Besides, everybody knows Rangers’ fans are a meek and peaceable bunch. Especially after a full day of drinking and a bad football result.
3b (177)-
Not condoning it. I’ve always thought the ultrafans and violence has been a big contributor to soccer’s non-acceptance in the US.
On the other hand, I can see a point at which the Knicks will only have hooligans as fans…
#182 Funny, I have always though that soccer’s non-acceptance here was due to the fact that at the end of the game you could have no winner or loser.
In American sport there always has to be a winner and loser.
The poor neighborhoods are loaded with crappy above ground pools! Who has time for the neighbors, I am out of the house from 7am to 7pm every day and the kids and family keep you busy all weekend. Same for everyone in my town. I know my friends in Atlanta who all live in brand new maint free houses who works 8 to 4 sees all his neighbors at the pool and tennis complex in his development every day. But they are home by 5pm, have no family in Atlanta and have no chores to do at home. The real world in NY/NJ we don’t have time for neighbors. Yet I find it very funny we will pay double to live in a good neighborhood meaning professionals etc. and then we don’t talk to the neighbors anyhow.
It could be my breath but I don’t think I have been within 40 feet of a neighbor in a few years.
John,
With that logic, we should all move to Newark or Irvington and put in above ground pools. ;)
My wife said no to my dreams of a pool.
She knew I’d fill it with saltwater and use it to grow coral in the summer.
3b (183)-
Too bad most American sports fans never tried to understand the format of the world’s soccer tournaments and competitions.
Games in which teams have employed the tactic of playing for a strategic tie are among the most exciting.
Ah suburban pools, some of my favorite teenage suburban summer nights were spent pool hopping with friends. If we were luckly a few of the local girls would tag along and we could play some underwater games.
grim (186)-
If I had a pool, I’d use it to drown my clients.
What abt using pool for pet fish?
Bi, Cheney’s heart stop again? Oil is down a whopping 4 cents.
Clotpoll,
Games in which teams have employed the tactic of playing for a strategic tie are among the most exciting.
——————-
While I agree with you, most NFL fans (and I am one) fell asleep halfway through that sentence. Where’s the bang? Where are the exclamation points? Where’s the onomatopoeia? BAM!
“If I had a pool, I’d use it to drown my clients.”
Clot,
You could then bring it to the window. The fed is accepting a similar asset class.
#193 BC Bob: Are you telling me you were not reassured by Bergabe’s comforting words today?
NFL games are soulless, joyless corporate spectacles. They are however, an excellent vehicle for gambling.
Pro football- without the gambling angle- would become less popular than soccer in the US.
3b [193],
Been buried. What did he say?
#193-
Post of the day.
Re: Solar
How’s this for a business plan.
http://michaelbluejay.com/electricity/solar.html
Check out “Mr. Electricity”
#196 BC Bob: He wants banks to continue to raise capital, he is impressed with their ability to raise capital so far.
The sovereign wealth funds contributions are to be welcomed, “very positive”, “very constructive”.
[161] “Good fences make good neighbors.” Robert Frost
“#196 BC Bob: He wants banks to continue to raise capital, he is impressed with their ability to raise capital so far.”
3b,
Just as impressed as he was with their ability to squander capital, turning it into slop and then levering it into sewage?
Clot,
Less popular than soccer in the USA is a mathematical impossibility. The most the NFL w/o gambling could hope for is a tie, which would excite all of the soccer loving world.
“Blackstone Group LP President Tony James said banks are mistaken if they think credit markets have begun a sustained recovery.”
“It’s not clear to me if it’s a permanent upswing, as I think many of the banks are saying, or the eye of the hurricane,” James told reporters on a conference call today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asA0wt7YDt3M&refer=home
Who needs a pool when you can buy a year long pass to the beach for $195?
You put a pool in for 30k and I’ll pay 2k over the next 10 years to go to the beach.
No link;
Freddie Mac, the nation’s second largest mortgage enabler, posted a $151 million loss yesterday. But it could have been a lot worse. Thankfully, their accounting department is deft with their calculators… and loose with the regulations.
Freddie accountants dusted off Financial Accounting Standard 157… which allows companies to estimate the value of holdings that aren’t traded. Freddie, conveniently, has $157 billion of such assets, 23% of all their total holdings.
“Coming up short? No problem. Let’s see… hmmn… ah yes… just change the way we value this little things over here… what are they called? Ah yes, mortgage-backed securities.” Click, click, tap, tap… faint whirring sound… “And there it is.”
FAS 157 saved Freddie $1.3 billion last quarter, company officials said yesterday.
Freddie’s number crunchers also extended the period in which they’re obligated to write down past-due mortgages. They used to write them down at 120 days past due… now, they don’t.
Voila… another billion in losses saved. This accounting stuff is easy.
Wall Street loved the charade. FRE jumped 9% on the “earnings”… er, loss… statement.
I can think of one situation where pools add immeasurable value your life – they are probably the best way invented to get women naked (I guess hot tubs would be included). A late night pool party, proper privacy, good lighting, a few strong bevies and babmo – the suits start coming off.
Supporting a $290 billion farm bill, when farmers income is the highest ever, is ludicrous. How about a provision of the bill, $126 million tax write offs for owners of Kentucky born race horses? If I didn’t know better, I would think there is an election on the horizon?
http://www.journal-news.com/n/content/shared-gen/ap/US_Congress/Farm_Bill_Pet_Causes.html
206: JBJB-
A boat and a secluded cove act the same way :)
PGC: thanks.
Based on the quick look at S. Ealing rents, the rents are a lot cheaper there than in decent area in NYC (plenty of 1-bedrooms for £1000/mo).
I will check that area when I’m visiting / house hunting London in a few weeks (no immediate plans to move yet, but under consideration).
“UES/UWS would be Kensington, Fulham or Chelsea. Out that direction I would be more inclined to go more towards Chiswick or Ealing or Notting Hill as they are cheaper and”
One question for anybody with experience in piggy-back loans:
I want to purchase a 490K property. I have 50K for down payment but I don’t want to be slammed with the 7.5% rate that I’ve heard is somewhat average for jumbo loans these days. Is the piggy back loan so separate and apart from the bigger loan that I can get a loan for 50K, add those 50 to my 50 and thus have 100K to put 20% down and also drive the bigger loan below 417K? Would that be the most cost effective alternative? Does the lender of the bigger loan have to have any participation or even be informed of the other loan? Thanks a million for any info.
From MarketWatch:
Beazer Homes reports wider first-, second-quarter losses
Beazer Homes USA Inc. losses widened in the fiscal first- and second-quarters, the homebuilder said late Thursday in its delayed financial results. The homebuilder reported a wider first-quarter loss of $138.2 million, or $3.59 a share, compared with $79.9 million, or $2.09 a share, a year ago. Revenue dropped to $503.1 million from $802.5 million for the quarter. Beazer also reported a wider loss for the second quarter of $229.9 million, or $5.96 a share, from $57.2 million, or $1.49 a share, in the year-ago period. Second-quarter revenue fell to $405.4 million, compared with $823.6 million last year.
“Beazer Homes USA”
#1 to fall, major Home-Builder. Who’s #2?
When # 1 falls, I get my boots on, when #2 tosses cookies, I tie my laces.
BC,
Since when do you need to make money in order to have a positive conference and earnings reports. Thank god for accounting dep’t and their genious. In addition, thank god for this irrational market run by ignorant Hedge Fund managers and stupid investors who in a couple of months will all be saying that noone could have possible seen this coming. That is freddy and/or fanny going caput.
Ps. There is no rush like a GOLD rush. It’s gonna be a stampede.
Can Obama put in tall Paul to run the treasury immediately or does he have to wait until January. We may not have until January.
I want to purchase a 490K property. I have 50K for down payment
$50k down on a half a million dollar property? Are you sure you can afford it? I don’t expect you to respond.
but I don’t want to be slammed with the 7.5% rate that I’ve heard
Don’t base your financing decision on heresay, I recommend that you start talking to banks and brokers and shopping for a loan. You don’t need to commit to anything to do it, and it is a great learning experience.
Would that be the most cost effective alternative?
This is irrelevant from a theoretical standpoint, you need to compare two actual loans. The piggyback was a lower cost alternative to paying PMI on a single loan. However, we’re in a different market, you might just find yourself being quoted a high rate on the piggyback, pushing your blended rate closer to the “heresay” number.
Meet with a number of banks/lenders and brokers, lay out your history, ask lots of questions and listen. Indirectly, you are paying them, so treat them accordingly. Lastly, no matter how smooth they talk, they aren’t your friends, not do they represent your interests.
make [213],
Freddie and Fannie have approx $80M in captial and over $5T in debt and mortgages. 60-1 in a declining, one that is intensifying, market. Taxpayers, open your pockets. In addition to this, if you drop your keys, don’t bend over to pick them up.
re: (210)
Lowball the house by $50k and problem solved.
Marito #(210),
You’re not ready to buy my friend. It’s OK though, just keep saving and in 12 months you’ll have 80K and the house will have dropped to 400K. There goes your 20%DP. If you buy Gold with the 50K then in 12 months you’ll have 30-40% DP.
Sit back and watch others loose their shirts. When BC laces up his boots the you can start thinking about your boots too until then sit back and watch this movie. It’s action packed and a tragedy for some but you shoudl make sure that it’s a happy ending for you and your family.
Hang out here on this Blog, you’ll be happy you did.
I did a piggy back in 2001 and my lender tried to talk me out of it – I had to explain to him why it was a good deal. Less than a year later I refinanced to one loan and there was no pmi because of the skyrocketing prices.
Today is a different story. That second loan will come with a high interest rate which you have to compare against the PMI.
Right now there are some jumbo’s out there for relatively low rates – you just have to shop. it really is worth the effort.
re: (215)
Yes open your wallets, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd are about to give out an early bailout to thousands that would otherwise walkaway from their mortgage obligations, and also early Christmas present to the banks.
One of my main predictions for 2008 was a bailout in Feb 2009 but the folks down in Washington DC are seeing fit to making this bailout happen sooner ranther than later.
Ray 202 –
Less popular than soccer in the USA is a mathematical impossibility.
Less popular than soccer in the USA?
Exhibit A: The NHL
Exhibit B: The NBA
MLS will last because unlike the NASL, they don’t dream of knocking off baseball or the NFL anytime soon. But hockey is in its death spiral and while overseas NBA interest is growing, nobody cares about it here.
Once in A Lifetime was an excellent movie. I wish the Red Bulls would pay off whoever owns the rights to New York Cosmos.
That second loan will come with a high interest rate which you have to compare against the PMI.
To make the comparison even more complicated, you need to consider the possible tax deductibility of PMI (if you qualify). This didn’t exist in 2001.
Although it is probably irrelevant in this case, since the cutoff for full deductibility is an income of $100k.
They always get you with the “cuttoff.”
As I am thinking about it Grim, it seems interesting that the cutoff for PMI is an income level of 100K. If you don’t have an income that high, how are you buying or more specifically buying a home in the metro area? It’s a meaningless tax “incentive.”
Issue right now is that losses on seconds are running high, if you don’t have pristine credit, you’ll pay for that second.
From MortgageWire:
Losses on Subprime Seconds Mount, Pressure Bond Insurers
An earlier warning this week from Moody’s Investors Service over worsening performance of subprime second liens and associated implications for the Aaa ratings of key monoline bond insurers led both MBIA Inc. (MBI: 9.68, +4.09%) and Ambac Financial (ABK: 3.98, +2.05%) to publicly contest the agency’s suggestion that their ratings were at risk.
Moody’s said that it now expects subprime second lien pools to lose 17 percent in the 2005 vintage, on average; losses are expected to average 42 percent in the 2006 vintage, and 45 percent in the 2007 vintage, the agency said. The higher losses might “materially impact” the capital adequacy needed by bond guarantors to hold on to their Aaa credit ratings, Moody’s suggested.
It’s a meaningless tax “incentive.”
It wasn’t meant for us (New Jersey).
Sean,
#219
Got GOLD?
Here is another one, hot off the wire from FT/NYT. Piggyback is a bad word.
Low yield and high risk equal bust
Would you invest money – at a very low interest rate – to finance mortgage loans that allow risky borrowers to buy homes with no money down? What if you knew the company that made most of the loans had gone bankrupt because so many of its loans had turned bad almost immediately?
Now, no one would do that. But it was just a year ago that Merrill Lynch was wrapping up a securitization that met just those criteria. The securities were snapped up by such buyers as the Bond Fund of America, one of the largest mutual funds.
That securitization is now a candidate for the title of the worst mortgage securitization ever. This week, it marked its first anniversary, an event that sparked no celebrations, and Moody’s forecast that, by the time it is wrapped up, so many of the mortgages would have gone bad that 60 percent of the money lent on the mortgages would not be paid back. Already some public investors are seeing their money vanish, and it seems certain that more will follow.
It turns out that so-called piggyback loans are highly vulnerable to homeowners walking away when property values fall. In a typical deal, a buyer took two mortgage loans, one for 80 percent of the purchase price, and the other to provide the remaining 20 percent. It is the latter loans that this securitization, and others like it, now own.
“In light of the pressure on home prices and limited or negative borrower equity in their homes, many second liens were simply written off” after several months of payments were missed, Moody’s said. With these loans, it turns out, foreclosure is seldom worth the effort, since all the money would go to the first mortgage holder.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/15/business/rtrcol16.php
California is leading the consumer bust. Can NJ be right behind it? Or is it different here?
From above article,
“There is a very strong relationship between delinquencies and the coupling of job losses with falling home prices,” Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Derek Chen of Barclays Capital in New York wrote in a note to clients.
and you need a PHD for this?
Brigadoon is the only NJ town to have made Relocate-America’s “Top 100 Places to Live in 2008” list:
http://top100.relocate-america.com/
Grim, I know it wasn’t meant for us. But that’s kind of the problem, isn’t it?
Shouldn’t these programs be sensitive to the economic levels of the area rather than a blanket number which is unrealistic in some places and a windfall in others.
Take the conforming loan rate. Perhaps it should be higher in the NY metro area and other areas like that but not as high in areas such as Nebraska.
Maybe the PMI deduction should be available to those of higher incomes in the NY type areas.
[230] Obviously, yes. You also need heavy duty qualification to downgrade stocks that have already fallen 20% or better.
Clotpoll Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
“soosh (165)-
Yeah, blame the English. It’s worked well for the past 700 years.”
Tad touchy?
I’ve always heard from those south of the border that the Scots are the most violent, and yet it was the English who were banned from European soccer for many years.
‘Course, your average Glaswegian will drink pretty much anybody else under the table, but that is beside the point.
soosh 234
“‘Course, your average Glaswegian will drink pretty much anybody else under the table, but that is beside the point.”
If you can make the next GTG, I’ll tell you the one about the Englishman, Irishman and Scot who walk into a bar.
Also, while I’m an Angle, Mrs. Patient is Irish – we could also have a drink-off.
232 jam
couldn’t agree more.
Also, it’ll NEVER happen.
Booooooooya………
Depeche Mode are back in the studio!
// 07.05.2008 //
It’s finally happening. Work has begun. The new Depeche Mode album is now under way.
Last night sources close to the band informed us that studio work has begun. The band and their production team met up in California late last week and began the first set of studio sessions on Monday, May 5th.
Sessions are tentatively scheduled to wrap up in late Autumn, leaving time for mixing and mastering in time for a March ‘09 release.
Touring is still being penned – expect to hear more on this nearer the completion of the album.
On the following page would be visual evidence….
http://www.depechemodeforum.com/board/index.php?topic=9677.45
unmod
Ho-Ho-Kus
SLD 183 LAKEWOOD AVE $790,000 4/4/2006
(office exclusive)
2820100
ACT 183 LAKEWOOD AVE $779,000 5/15/2008
——–
Upper Saddle River
SLD 17 COTTONTAIL TRL $765,000 4/12/2007
ACT 17 COTTONTAIL TRL $815,000 1/11/2007
W-C 17 COTTONTAIL TRL $815,000 2/27/2007 (withdrawn)
2819824
ACT 17 COTTONTAIL TRL $749,000 5/14/2008
———-
Allendale
SLD 13 EROLD CT $600,000 5/4/2005
2740058
ACT 13 EROLD CT $669,000 10/2/2007
PCH 13 EROLD CT $649,000 2/29/2008
PCH 13 EROLD CT $629,000 5/14/2008
———-
Ridgewood
SLD 171 WALTHERY AVE $670,000 8/15/2005
2817904
ACT 171 WALTHERY AVE $675,000 4/30/2008
PCH 171 WALTHERY AVE $649,000 5/15/2008
———-
Oradell
SLD 677 PARK AVE $479,000 11/16/2004
SLD 677 PARK AVE $485,000 5/15/2008
———-
River Edge
SLD 672 CENTER AVE $458,000 10/25/2004
SLD 672 CENTER AVE $435,000 5/14/2008
njpatient Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
“If you can make the next GTG, I’ll tell you the one about the Englishman, Irishman and Scot who walk into a bar.
Also, while I’m an Angle, Mrs. Patient is Irish – we could also have a drink-off.”
There are a LOT of those jokes.
I can’t drink much any more. College days I was a bit of a fish, to the extent that it was scary, 5 years in the Middle East cured me of that. Sad to say, a couple of glasses of wine and I am fried.
“Sad to say, a couple of glasses of wine and I am fried.”
I can only manage about 4 on a good night before there’s trouble – but I was speaking facetiously.
We used to begin a date each drinking a bottle of wine before we went out (to save money when we arrived at the bar). Now we share one bottle and stay in.
njpatient Says:
“We used to begin a date each drinking a bottle of wine before we went out (to save money when we arrived at the bar). Now we share one bottle and stay in.”
I knew you were my kind of people!
242 Lisoosh
Ditto!
“5 years in the Middle East cured me of that”
I had a Japanese colleague who did a lot of business in the ME, primarily in Saudi Arabia. Of course, a Japanese businessman can’t travel anywhere without drinking excessively, so he was always depressed before his trips (which would last >2 weeks). Finally he hired a local guy to smuggle in sake and other booze. After that, he didn’t mind going back.
lisoosh (234): “yet it was the English who were banned”
it is actually much worse in the continental Europe, ie in France and Holland. Lot of racism there (last year in france a mob tried to kill a jew who went to PSG match..eventually french police had to shoot and kill the attacker).
In the UK, you can take your kids to game.
I liked this one…
See D!ck go to the FHA housing blog contest.
See D!ck vote for some whack blog like the Title Insurance Blog.
See D!ck cost grim some money.
See D!ck cry when he realizes he could have voted for njrereport.com
Don’t be a D!ck.
VOTE GRIM!
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
Once. I voted one lousy cottonpickin time for Title Insurance.
I see ‘Frisco Sweet Digs got dinged 8 votes for cheating.
What happened to the recession of 2008 – what happened to my deal-free vacation?
Bring back my recession!!
Okay Grim – I read the rules again and they say “vote once a day” but try as I may – a daily vote won’t post. If you are in touch with them, you might let them know it isn’t actually working as they hoped.
(#229) Make money – Sorry about all of the trouble over my way. But people are tightening their belts. I live in the San Joaquin Valley – we actually grow the food here…and the prices are outrageous.
250 Cindy
Same for me and others – I think that’s just the way it works, despite what the rules say (like life generally) – however, every time grim throws up the link he winds up with a half dozen more votes. There are a heck of a lot of folks who come here to read but don’t post, I think.
Hello, lurkers! (No, not you, lurkera).
uh..Senate is trying (again) to pass amnesty for illegal immigrants. Sen. Feinstein managed to sneak it through, passed 17-12 in Senate Appropriations Cmte.
like a bad dream. it just keep getting back.
Those stats on make’s #229 really surprized me. “California is 13% of the US economy.” “1/3 of the non-mainstream loans are from California.” Ouch! All I can do is apologize for all of the jerks who took advantage of the system and are dragging everyone down just now…Sorry NJ!
In case anyone was considering purchasing it, I’m really enjoying the book Grim and Chicago recommended, “Nudge.”
pg. 120 “Recall from Chapter 1 that Humans
(there is a comparison between people being Humans or Econs)are loss averse. Roughly speaking, they hate losses about twice as much as they like gains.”
grim
the are already a few companies that do the leased roof for solar thing. apparently the poriftability is marginal due to the power generation/interconnect regulations.
The numbers work, but the regulation involved is heavily i n the big power companies favor
“passed 17-12 in Senate Appropriations Cmte.”
?
We’re appropriating humans?
kettle
“The numbers work, but the regulation involved is heavily i n the big power companies favor”
shocking, innit?
Who’da guessed regulation FAVORED big corps? I thought regulation was BAD!
Competing with a resource that can’t be kept in a box ain’t good for my clie… er … big oil.
This is a subliminal message
Houses GTG are still GTG overpriced.
Wait GTG another year GTG at least.
I need GTG a drink
I want to go GTG home.
oh my g*d kill me now.
#207,
BC Bob,
Since we blew billions on Iraq with no results, I rather give $290 billion to our farmers in Iowa that in Kirkuk.
“oh my g*d kill me now.”
patient,
Why ask God? The Yankees are doing a terrific job addressing this same subject, providing the dagger.
262
Kennedy is not bringing back Camelot.
Frank [261],
I like the logic, a wrong leads to a right. Maybe you should run for a seat in Des Moines?
http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/20080515_Beetlemania__Giant_bugs_cause_quite_a_stir.html
When scratching and clawing could be heard in the packages, labeled as toys and jellies, a Mohnton postmaster contacted the U.S. Customs and Border Protection…
some of which were as big as a child’s hand …
…can cause extensive damage to fruit and vegetable crops, trees, shrubs and turf …
!
Turf? 50 Miles NW of Phila?
Somebody in Taiwan is trying to sabotage Joe. This is serious.
In NJ, yous guys would prolly just dip ’em in chocolate, put little bows on their heads and make like 5 grand a pop selling them at Starbucks.
Somewhat random…
but just want to throw out a big thanks to all the members of the board who i have learned a substantial amount from. Grim thanks for building this community and keeping it running
back atcha kettle. I’m more confident discussing oil – thanks to you.
me three
yum…beatles…
speaking of which, is my sushi that arrived at 9 going to be edible in half an hour?
# 237 “Depeche Mode “?????????????????
Maybe Sabbath, as no drummer had anything on Bill Ward (well Gene Krupa, but that was adifferent era). Or maybe the patron saint of NJ, who also goes by the name of Springsteen. But, Depeche Mode?
NJP, I think you’ll live. I’ve eaten the box from Shoprite after at least 4 hours.
These actually sound good:
http://www.ent.iastate.edu/misc/insectsasfood/blox.html
“no drummer had anything on Bill Ward”
Neil Pert?
http://www.olympus.net/dggordon/EatASample.htm
272 pat
I dunno. I like dry-roasted; not sure why I’d want to adulterate that with gelatin.
Shoprite refrigerates…
Shore Guy Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
# 237 “Depeche Mode “?????????????????
Maybe Sabbath, as no drummer had anything on Bill Ward (well Gene Krupa, but that was adifferent era). Or maybe the patron saint of NJ, who also goes by the name of Springsteen. But, Depeche Mode?
Shore: The only thing left you can say is that you index…..if so, then we are dropping the gloves………..
Vulture fund eyes California land at “Armageddon” prices
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/05/vulture-fund-ey.html
The fund’s manager, David Michelson, plans to raise $150 million from European investors to buy raw land from developers and banks in places like the Inland Empire where home values have sunk lowest.
Michelson told Bloomberg News that he has developed and managed residential projects in California for more than 25 years. He said he’s currently bidding for Riverside County land at “Armageddon” prices — 20% of what it had been valued by builders.
The idea is to hang onto the property for six or seven years and then resell it. Michelson predicted he will eventually be buying from some updated version of the Resolution Trust Corp., the federal agency that liquidated the property the government inherited from 700 failed savings and loans in the 1980s.
Key quote from 277:
“Michelson predicted he will eventually be buying from some updated version of the Resolution Trust Corp.”
That’s it
I quit
I’m going home and eat my fish, even if it’s a bit … fishy.
Remember this information relates to “new home” “construction” and associated economic activity. Completely different than “house prices for NNJ”.
WSJ
On Homes: Economists Vs. Builders
By MICHAEL CORKERY
May 16, 2008
Some economists expect that home-construction activity will bottom out by the end of 2008 and start picking up next year. But that target increasingly seems elusive, as the spring home-selling season nears another dismal end. Investors shouldn’t expect solace in Friday’s Commerce Department report on housing starts.
The up-close view of Robert Toll, chief executive of the luxury builder Toll Brothers, is telling. In its latest quarter, Toll’s buyers signed 929 contracts for new homes in Toll’s 300 communities across the nation. That means, on average, Toll sold one home per month at each community. At the peak, in the second quarter of 2005, the builder signed 3,120 contracts.
Meanwhile, the number of interested buyers visiting Toll Brothers communities in the quarter ended April 30 is “the worst that we’ve ever seen,” said Mr. Toll, whose company was founded in 1967.
He isn’t alone in his concern. A builder sentiment measure Thursday indicated that builders were more pessimistic about sales for the next six months than they were last month, and reported that buyer traffic had declined. It is the first drop in the index since December.
Economists have a median expectation for housing starts of a 934,000-unit annual rate in April, representing a decline of 1.4% from March. Given what builders are seeing, anything close to that estimate would be welcome news.
“There are forces out there that suggest that things could spiral downward for some time to come,” says David Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.
If no one’s buying, or even looking at, new construction, why is a larger number of new units good news to a builder like Toll?
As someone who was very publicly vocal about the RE debacle from 2003, I wholeheartedly agree with the general premise of this site and Grim’s admirable stewardship. However, I find the omnipresent Jersey bashing on the Boards tiresome and asinine. Have you folks lived anywhere else? I was born here but lived 20 years in Maryland, Florida and North Carolina. In spite of our unsustainable public employment/pension timebomb, the NJ economy is resilient and supports a much larger and more affluent middle class than any state in the country, percentage wise. The losers that run away are not statistically significant and do not represent the best and brightest, to put it mildly (but that might surprise you since they feel the need to bitterly comment ALL OVER THE WEB about how happy they are in Hazzard County) In fact, the immigrants that replace those “retired/disabled” cops that move to Florida are usually far more productive members of our economy.
I believe that our national economic future is grim (no pun intended) but I would argue that the people of Jersey are relatively well prepared to weather the storm. (I am NOT talking about the poor; they are utterly screwed whether they live in Newark or Durham.) Wealth doesn’t scatter as quickly as the chicken littles would have you believe…
Bulgarian spa projects boost property prices
Sofia Echo Bulgaria State Agency for Tourism says that the number of tourists visiting spa resorts will increase by 75 per cent in the next three or four years.
Investors have been working on spa tourism projects for a long time, Kapital daily reported.
There are spa centre and hotel construction projects in, among other places, the well-known destinations Sandanski, Kyustendil and Apriltsi. These regions boast favourable natural resources and, unlike other traditional resorts, are not burdened by overbuilding.
Major spa projects have already influenced the property market, in certain regions further boosting property price increases.
The regions of Bansko and Razlog have emerged as the most popular among investors.
According to real estate agency Address, eight vacation complex projects with a total built-up area of 50 000 sq m are underway in the village of Banya. The village is near Bansko and has 70 mineral springs.
As a result, average land prices in the region went up, reaching 40 to 100 euro a sq m, Address said.
A major spa project in Kyustendil will result in a hotel and apartment complex of 32 055 sq m area. The centre will target wealthy clients.
National Statistical Institute (NSI) data said that residential property prices in Kyustendil increased by 11 per cent in the first quarter of 2007.
Housing starts have gain.
281 .. good points.
#284 Mult-family housing starts, as in coop, condos, and yes multi-family rentals.It was yet another decline for single family home construction.
#282 cur: You have soem valid points. But if we who have chosen to remain here, are so smart, so bright,and so affluent, then just how did WE let our state becaome such a fiscal mess.
And ths economic decline in our state is not a mirage, it is a fact.
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