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From the Wall Street Journal:
Fannie Is Poised to Scrap
Policy Over Down Payments
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
May 16, 2008; Page A3
Fannie Mae is expected to announce Friday that it is scrapping a policy requiring higher down payments on home mortgages in areas where house prices are falling.
The change comes in response to protests from vital political allies of the government-sponsored provider of funding for mortgages, including the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Home Builders and organizations that promote affordable housing for low-income people.
Those various groups have said the policy is hurting an already feeble housing market by shutting out too many potential buyers.
The current policy, adopted in December and now due to end June 1, limits loan amounts in areas with declining home prices, including most of the densely populated parts of the country.
For instance, if a loan program normally allows people to borrow up to 100% of the estimated property value, the maximum is cut to 95% in “declining markets.”
Under the new policy that is taking effect next month, Fannie will have the same maximum loan percentages across the country for people purchasing single-family homes that they intend to occupy, according to people familiar with the plan.
For borrowers approved by Fannie’s automated underwriting program, the maximum generally will be 97%. For those approved by other means, the maximum will be 95%. (Fannie also has some loan programs, typically offered through state or local housing agencies or nonprofit groups, that allow certain borrowers to make no down payment.)
…
By softening the down-payment policies, Fannie and Freddie are taking more risks.
Borrowers who put just 3% to 5% down in many areas are likely to find within a year that they owe more than the homes are worth because prices have fallen, a situation known as being underwater.
In some cases, deeply underwater borrowers are choosing to walk away from their homes rather than trying to find a way to keep on paying, Patricia Cook, Freddie’s chief business officer, told analysts this week.
But Fannie officials have argued that they have tightened lending standards in other ways — for instance, insisting on higher credit scores for people who make small down payments — to reduce default risk. Officials have also argued that underwater borrowers don’t necessarily choose to walk away.
The concessions from Fannie and Freddie illustrate the conflicting pressures that they are facing. Many critics say they are taking far too many risks, increasing the danger that taxpayers may end up having to bail them out.
From the WSJ:
Bernanke’s Bubble Laboratory
Princeton Protégés of Fed Chief
Study the Economics of Manias
By JUSTIN LAHART
May 16, 2008; Page A1
PRINCETON, N.J. — First came the tech-stock bubble. Then there were bubbles in housing and credit. Chinese stocks took off like a rocket. Now, as prices soar on every material from oil to corn, some suggest there’s a bubble in commodities.
But how and why do bubbles form? Economists traditionally haven’t offered much insight. From World War II till the mid-1990s, there weren’t many U.S. investing manias for them to look at. The study of bubbles was left to economic historians sifting through musty records of 17th-century Dutch tulip-bulb prices and the like.
The dot-com boom began to change that. “You were seeing live, in action, the unfolding of lots of examples of valuations disconnecting from fundamentals,” says Princeton economist Harrison Hong. Now, the study of financial bubbles is hot.
…
Bubbles emerge at times when investors profoundly disagree about the significance of a big economic development, such as the birth of the Internet. Because it’s so much harder to bet on prices going down than up, the bullish investors dominate.
Once they get going, financial bubbles are marked by huge increases in trading, making them easier to identify.
Manias can persist even though many smart people suspect a bubble, because no one of them has the firepower to successfully attack it. Only when skeptical investors act simultaneously — a moment impossible to predict — does the bubble pop.
…
In housing and the credit markets, the innovation was slicing and dicing loans in novel ways. As investors bought the resulting mortgage securities, they provided abundant capital for home buyers; buoyed by this and falling interest rates, house prices surged.
Betting against house prices is hard; only a few sophisticated investors found roundabout ways to do it, in derivatives markets. Most skeptics about the housing boom just sat it out; the optimists were unchecked.
At some point in a bubble, optimists’ enthusiasm runs its course. Prices turn down. There’s an expectation that at this point, investors who were skeptical may see prices as more reasonable and start buying. If they don’t, that’s a signal that prices had gotten way too high — and then they tumble.
How can you write a piece on Scholes and not say a word about the LTCM debacle?
Scholes, Nobel Laureate, Says Credit Crisis May Not Be Over
Myron Scholes, chairman of Platinum Grove Asset Management LP and 1997 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, said the worst of the crisis in credit markets may not be over.
“From my perspective, I think that we don’t know if the storm has passed or if we are still in the eye of the storm,” Scholes said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio yesterday. “Are there other shoes to drop and new events or new shocks that will come to the fore?”
Scholes’s warning reflects financial markets that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week said remain “far from normal.” Financial institutions have been reluctant to lend to each other, driving up bank borrowing costs, since a flight from risk in August sparked by defaults on subprime mortgages.
“In my view, this is probably as bad or worse than the 1989-1990 crisis and may even rival the worst crisis we’ve seen since the end of the Second World War,” Scholes said. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has also said the turmoil is the most “wrenching” since the war.
From the Record:
Banks rein in home equity
Large lenders such as Bank of America, Countrywide Financial and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. have withdrawn home-equity lines of credit they previously extended because of falling real estate prices.
The action leaves some homeowners — in New Jersey and elsewhere — with less borrowing power than they thought.
Many lenders in recent years let homeowners borrow against 100 percent or more of the value of their homes. But as home prices have slipped, lenders tightened policies, generally allowing loan-to-value ratios — including first and second mortgages — of only 85 percent or less of the updated market val-ue.
Bank of America lowered its loan-to-value ratio in New Jersey to 85 percent this year, said David Bradley, a company spokesman. The previous limit was “somewhat higher,” said Bradley, who declined to be more specific.
“It can be a hardship for people, but it really represents a prudent risk position we’re taking,’’ he said.
Tom Kelly, a spokesman for Chase, said the bank tightened mortgage lending standards in general and has reduced existing lines of credit “on a limited basis.”
…
Phyllis Salowe-Kaye, executive director of consumer watchdog and non-profit debt counselor New Jersey Citizen Action, said some New Jersey homeowners are feeling the pinch and have come to her organization to complain.
“There are people looking to use home equity lines, and they find they have no equity in some areas,’’ she said.
…
Chase dropped the limit on its loan-to-value ratio for new loans this year to 80 percent from 100 percent in all but two New Jersey counties, Kelly said. The limit was dropped to 85 percent in Atlantic and Cape May counties where the real estate market is comparatively strong. In parts of Nevada, where home values have dropped significantly, the cap has been slashed to 60 percent, he said.
From Newsday:
For sale: many Long Island mansions
It’s not every day you see a Gold Coast mansion go on the market – though it does seem lately like it’s at least every few weeks.
Recently, the Old Westbury estate of the late horse breeder Cynthia Phipps was put up for sale at the hefty price of $13 million. A few days later, the nearby house that once belonged to famed architect Thomas Hastings went on the market for $12.5 million. And then, just three weeks ago, another Old Westbury estate, this one belonging to heiress Cornelia Guest, went on the block for $20 million.
“It’s where I grew up, but I just don’t spend enough time there,” Guest says. “It’s an equestrian estate, and it needs a family that loves horses. I spend a lot of time in Los Angeles now, and I want to create my own family home.”
From the LoHud Journal News:
Jobless rates climb in Lower Hudson Valley
Unemployment rates for April reached four-year highs in the Lower Hudson Valley.
It was the latest evidence that workers are finding fewer job opportunities as the region feels the effects of a slowing national economy and tighter credit markets.
In Westchester County, the jobless rate rose to 3.9 percent in April from 3.2 percent a year earlier, according to data released yesterday by the state Labor Department. In Rockland County, the jobless rate climbed to 3.9 percent from 3.4 percent. And in Putnam County, it jumped to 3.6 percent from 3.0 percent.
“It continues the theme of what has been happening in recent months,” said Johny Nelson, a state labor market analyst in White Plains. “There is no doubt that the job market is slowing.”
The finance and insurance sector was one of the hardest hit, losing 1,000 jobs in the three-county area during the past year.
From the Long Island Business News:
Lenders offering a way out
Escalating foreclosures and a recessionary economy have forced lenders to lower rates or extend the terms for mortgages on the verge of default.
The move comes as the number of homeowners either in default or at least 30 days late in their payments rises to an alarming rate. There were 3,352 foreclosure-related filings on Long Island in the first quarter, up 11.6 percent from the same period a year ago.
The trouble is, more foreclosures mean the lenders are being saddled with the responsibility of selling these homes. And in a down real estate market, that’s not an appetizing task.
For example, median home price on Long Island have fallen about 11 percent since April 2007, according to the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island.
In Suffolk County, the median home price fell 13 percent to $362,000 since April 2007, and in Nassau County home prices fell 10 percent to $440,000.
Peter Elkowitz, director of the Long Island Housing Partnership, said banks are so uneasy about taking on more properties that they’re willing to take small writedowns to avoid foreclosure, and potentially larger losses.
From Bloomberg:
Housing Starts in U.S. Probably Fell to 17-Year Low in April
Builders in the U.S. probably broke ground last month on the fewest houses in 17 years as slumping sales forced deeper cutbacks, economists said before a government report today.
Housing starts in April fell to a 939,000 annual pace, from 947,000 a month earlier, according to the median forecast of 73 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report today is forecast to show that Americans’ confidence sank to a 26-year low this month.
Lower prices and bigger incentives have yet to revive demand, indicating builders will need to come up with even more discounts to attract buyers. Stricter lending rules, job losses and growing pessimism about the economy signal sales will not rebound quickly.
“Starts have nowhere to go but down,” said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “The problem with housing is demand has fallen just as sharply as production has fallen, which means that even more correction has to be done on the housing-production side.”
The Commerce Department’s construction report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. The projected reading would be the lowest since March 1991.
From the Record:
Xanadu debut delayed 8 months
The opening of the $2 billion Xanadu retail and entertainment center was pushed back Thursday by at least eight months to midsummer 2009 from November.
Complex construction for several unique tenants — the project includes an indoor snow dome, a 3,400-seat concert hall and an aquarium — was cited by the developers as the chief cause of the delay.
However, business and shopping experts blamed the shaky national economy, which may have made retailers skittish about signing lease commitments.
Either way, the delay could prove beneficial for residents who have worried that an opening this fall could snarl highways in the area. The project now is likely to open after a $185 million rail link to the complex is completed in the spring. It also buys more time for a series of road improvements planned for the area.
From MarketWatch:
Goldman Sachs ups 2008 H2 oil forecast to $141 from $107
From NYT/CNBC:
“Stealth Layoffs” Sweep across Wall Street
People on Wall Street seem to be vanishing overnight.
Thousands are losing their jobs as hard-pressed banks cut deep. But while layoffs are nothing new in the financial industry (they come with almost every downturn), this round seems different: it is eerily quiet.
While the financial markets have found a bit of a footing lately, banks are pushing ahead with plans for some of the deepest job reductions in years. Since last summer, banks worldwide have announced plans to cut 65,000 employees.
But exactly how many jobs have been or will be eliminated is unclear. In the past, banks typically made sharp reductions all at once. After the 1987 stock market crash, for example, employees were herded into conference rooms and dismissed en masse.
This time, companies are making many small cuts over the course of weeks or even months. Some people who have lost jobs, and many more struggling to hold them, say banks are keeping employees in the dark about the size and timing of layoffs.
Citigroup, for example, said last year that it would eliminate 17,000 jobs, or about 5 percent of its work force. Then in January, Citi said it would dismiss 4,200 more people. In April, it said an additional 8,700 would go.
By contrast, after the financial upheaval of 1998, when many Wall Street banks pared payrolls, Citigroup eliminated 10,600 jobs, or about 6 percent of its work force at the time.
The idea that banks will slowly wield the knife again and again unnerves many employees. People know the cuts are coming — they just don’t know when or where.
“Nobody knows who is coming in; nobody knows who is going out,” said JoAnne Kennedy, who was laid off by JPMorgan Chase this year. “They want to keep it all as quiet as possible.”
From the SF Business Times:
WaMu reduces home equity credit to homeowners
Washington Mutual Inc. has slashed or suspended $6 billion in available home equity credit to its customers in an effort to reduce its risk in a flailing housing market.
If they haven’t already been notified, WaMu’s customers across the country will learn of the change to their credit availability in a letter mailed to them in the next several days. The bank declined to disclose how many customers will be affected.
If a borrower’s home has depreciated — regardless of credit history — the line of credit will likely be reduced because the equity has fallen.
#1 Those dopes in the GSE’s will bust us all. We’ll get stuck bailing them out, just on a larger scale then I thought.
With no skin in the game iF you buy a place with no money down and it drops 20% how many 720 credit scores will feel inclined to keep paying? Especially as there are more and more stories of people no longer paying their mortgages and banks taking 6 months or more to throw them out.
#11 How many of those Wall St jobs never would have existed if it hadn’t been for the housing bubble?
# 1 “Borrowers who put just 3% to 5% down in many areas are likely to find within a year that they owe more than the homes are worth because prices have fallen, a situation known as being underwater.”
No chance at all that any of these loans could go bad once RE drops another 10% or so. Yeesh, have we learned anything at all?
Also, from yeaterday:
“njpatient Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
“no drummer had anything on Bill Ward”
Neil Pert?”
Not a bad choice either, nor is Bonzo, or Moon. Still, for my money, I will take Ward any day; watching him on Children of the Grave (New NAR theme song?) is a real treat.
Borrowers who put just 3% to 5% down in many areas are likely to find within a year that they owe more than the homes
What a silly statement.
Borrowers who put just 3-5% down, in *all* areas, find themselves underwater immediately upon leaving the closing table.
Why?
Transaction costs, 5-6% commission, realty transfer tax, closing costs on the mortgage, etc.
In the “good ol’ days”, you needed to live in a house for 4-5 years just to gain enough appreciation to break even on the sale.
Grim are you reading “Nudge?” While this comment was made in the investing section I found it to quite telling “Humans are loss averse. Roughly speaking, they hate losses about twice as much as they like gains.”
Let’s pretend half of the folks with homes for sale are Econs and half are Humans.. . that means 1/4 of the people with homes for sale aren’t going to drop their prices if they will sustain a loss.
#17 Cindy,
Warren Buffet noted something similar. He said something like many people ride their losers and sell their winners.
He also said you don’t have to make it back the same way you lost it.
# 16
Grim,
Clearly the trouble with you, and folks of your ilk, is that you apply logic and clear analytical reasoning to issues of finance. You just don’t seem to get it that a home is part and parcel of the American Dream and it cannot be subjected to cold hard financial analysis? WHere would this country be if people like you had any hand in the granting of mortgages.
Transaction costs, opportunity costs, taxes; indeed! It is time to get with the program and stop with all this fussy logic nonsense.
(tongue firmly planted in cheek)
Is Kannekt in the FHA contest?
(18) bairen
It just seemed relevant because so many are suprised that folks won’t drop their prices.
There must be a portion of the population that just won’t. They would probably rather live in the place forever than sustain that loss. (Buffet is obviously an “Econ.”)
Not a “blog”
Speaking of profiles in courage and leadership in our elected officials. We can all rest easy knowing that those farmers making a mere $750,000 a year profit will find some relief:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/16/MNMG10N32I.DTL
(05-16) 04:00 PDT Washington – — The Senate passed the $290 billion, five-year farm bill by a strong veto-proof margin Thursday, ensuring that the measure becomes law despite President Bush’s threatened veto, which would be the first presidential veto of a farm bill since Dwight Eisenhower’s in 1956.
The 81-15 Senate vote followed overwhelming bipartisan passage of the bill in the House Wednesday. The measure continues $25 billion in direct payments, mainly to grain growers despite record prices; contains $3 billion in first-ever research and marketing money for California produce growers; and creates a new “permanent disaster” program that will subsidize wheat growers who plant marginal prairie land now set aside for wildlife and watershed protection.
Democratic presidential contender Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who has based his campaign on a promise to end special-interest politics in Washington, issued a statement praising the farm bill, which is laden with special-interest subsidies. Obama said the bill will “provide America’s hard-working farmers and ranchers with more support and more predictability.”
[snip]
Cindy,
Sounds like a plausable foundation for “sticky downward” pricing theory.
Add in a dash of misinformation, and a heaping scoop of hope, and you’ve explained the current housing market.
Oh you have to allow alternate opinions to be a blog?
#21 Cindy
I’m surprised to that people won’t drop the price. i can’t stand lines like “I’m not giving myhouse away” and “I’m not dropping out of respect for the neighborhood”
It’s really amazing to me. The same people who claim you should buy because you are putting your life on hold or throw money away when you rent are refusing to drop their price. They really are putting their life on hold since they most likely can’t buy until they sell. And if they are forced to rent it out and are cash flow negative, every month they get a nice reminder about their financial prowess as they throw money away.
Since this is a weekend discussion, and this involves a family, which lives in a house, here is some weird news to make every parent freak out a bit next time the kids have an aching abdomen:
9-year-old girl’s twin is found inside her stomach
Thursday, May 15, 2008
9-year-old girl’s twin is found inside her stomach
Thursday, May 15, 2008
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/05/15/international/i045832D00.DTL
(05-15) 12:52 PDT ATHENS, Greece (AP) —
A 9-year-old girl who went to hospital in central Greece suffering from stomach pains was found to be carrying her embryonic twin, doctors said Thursday.
Doctors at Larissa General Hospital examined the girl and surgically removed a growth they later discovered was an embryo more than two inches long.
“They could see on the right side that her belly was swollen, but they couldn’t suspect that this tumor would hide an embryo,” hospital director Iakovos Brouskelis said.
The girl has made a full recovery, he said.
Andreas Markou, head of the hospital’s pediatric department, said the embryo was a formed fetus with a head, hair and eyes, but no brain or umbilical cord.
Markou said cases where one of a set of twins absorbs the other in the womb occurs in one of 500,000 live births.
The girl’s family did not want to be identified, hospital officials said.
#23 That’s it. If I vote this year its either for Teddy Roosevelt or myself. Maybe grim.
(27)barien
This analogy may help – a “Human” – Homer Simpson – automatic system…
an “Econ” – Mr. Spock from Star Trek.-reflective system
I wonder how much of the hostility to falling RE prices has to do with the fact that RE seems to be the only large asset that most people ever acquire. True thre are are people have piddly $100,000-$400,000 IRAs etc. (see how long that lasts in retirement), but the home has achieved mythic status as a vehicle for wealth generation. Were houses viewed as a tool, a place to seek shelter, cook, sleep, etc., and not as worth-generating vehicles (or status symbols) prhaps we would not be in this mess.
# 29 TR there you go. HE was a President, not a president.
“Goldman Sachs ups 2008 H2 oil forecast to $141 from $107”
They must be short.
#30 cindy,
Yeah. Most people are irrational and reactive. Buffet and Spock are rational and reflective.
“Nobody knows who is coming in; nobody knows who is going out,” said JoAnne Kennedy, who was laid off by JPMorgan Chase this year. “They want to keep it all as quiet as possible.”
Sounds like that front door, back door scenario. The IB’s have kept this very quiet. Walk down WS, an hour before the open. The silence is deafening.
Xanadu is too big for it’s own good. At first, it was supposed to be an entertainment destination. Then it turned more towards a retail destination. Now that stores aren’t signing leases, I smell them turning it into something else.
“Borrowers who put just 3-5% down, in *all* areas, find themselves underwater immediately upon leaving the closing table.”
JB,
Bingo. I’m surprised the industry hasn’t latched onto my idea; requiring gap insurance at closing.
Housing rescue deal stalls in Senate
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS – 10 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — A key senator postponed action Thursday on a homeowner rescue package that could help half a million strapped borrowers get government-backed mortgages, as negotiators inched toward a bipartisan deal.
The delay on the action until next week clouded the prospects of an emerging compromise between Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., the Banking Committee Chairman, and Sen. Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, the panel’s senior Republican. It also highlighted the tricky political calculations involved in reaching a bipartisan housing deal in an election year when the two parties are competing intensely to appeal to voters who cite the economy as their top concern.
JB,
Check your email.
Dollar weakens ahead of housing data
Are Democrats making peace with the ‘burbs?
The Democrats need to end the war.
The war against the suburbs, I mean. It’s getting out of hand.
“We’re discouraging jobs in this economy,” says state Sen. Ray Lesniak. “It’s dumb. Stupid, stupid, stupid.”
Lesniak, who is a Democrat, was talking about the latest affordable-housing scheme. The Corzine administration recently signed off on new Council on Affordable Housing regulations that call for more than 100,000 new housing units to be shoehorned into the suburbs. Worse, the plan lists parks, schoolyards and even the Garden State Parkway right-of-way as available for development. And even worse than that, the Democrats plan to send the bill for much of this construction to anyone who wants to build a new business in the state.
Builder unwraps plans for near rail station
BY JOYCE J. PERSICO
WEST WINDSOR — Developer Steve Goldin is filling in the blanks about what he wants to build on 25 acres he owns along Washington Road: 450 market-rate housing units and 72,000 square feet of re tail space.
“Fundamentally, this allows people to make a decision as to where they are on redevelopment,” Goldin said in announcing the numbers yesterday.
Goldin also said his current zon ing, which would be changed under redevelopment, would require 250 affordable housing units for non- seniors. But under new COAH rules, demolition of the Washington Road offices Goldin owns on Washington Road would give the township 31 credits for affordable hous ing. Building within a half-mile of a train station would give West Windsor another 33 percent affordable housing credit. His plan, Goldin said, would require a one- third less affordable housing obli gation than would housing on his site’s current zoning.
Mayor Shing-Fu Hsueh was re luctant to weigh in on Goldin’s numbers.
“It is too early for me to comment. I have to see exactly what he will present. We need to get New Jersey Transit and DOT involved. NJT has 27 acres next door to Goldin’s property. We have to see what COAH really means to this site,” Hsueh said. “We have to take all of that into consideration. NJ Transit plays a major role.”
Builder touts senior housing
Developer says he wants feedback from Greenwich Twp. board.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
By ANDREA EILENBERGER
The Express-Times
GREENWICH TWP. | Developer Matzel & Mumford, contract purchaser of property behind the Greenwich Center, appeared before the township planning board Wednesday night to discuss development possibilities there.
The developer has appeared before township officials in the past with pitches for more than 290 homes there, but Matzel & Mumford representative David Fisher did not come armed with a proposal. He talked about the merits that some form of senior housing could have for the township.
This whole collapse has the feel of a systematic fleecing scheme. It is hard to believe that the likes of us, here, saw the unsustainability of what was happening and the powers that be at the various IBs, et. al, did not. Even though unsustainable, they kept sucking out bonuses and commissions as they packaged debt they must have known was going to come to no good end. If they could not see the fall that was going to come, they have worthless analytical skills and taking the money they “earned” constitutes a theft.
As long as the ignorant were willing to jump in with both feet, there was money to be made; screw the consequences. Even if one’s IB collapses, which the Fed will do everything to prevent, one can live reasonably well on $200,000,000.00 or so banked during the good times.
It is hard not to look at all this and not see rats.
Regulatory Implications of the Housing and Mortgage Bubble and Bust
By Alex J. Pollock
Resident fellow Alex J. Pollock testifies before the Joint Economic Committee about the regulatory implications of the housing and mortgage bubble and bust. In light of the recent clamor for increased regulation of mortgage lending, Mr. Pollock reminds Congress that regulatory reform will not prevent all future financial busts, and that the heavily regulated, pre-securitization banking system experienced disasters in the 1970s and 1980s. He outlines eight sensible ideas for reform of the mortgage finance system.
# 41 “Garden State Parkway right-of-way as available for development.”
I dunno, maybe there is something to this. It would cut down on coommuting issues; just pull out of the parking spot onto the Parkway.
Will we drive all futures business to ICE[London]. Govt intervention is the last variable that WS needs to contend with.
“Oil Traders Draw Congress’ Ire”
“Capitol Hill is taking aim at what some see as rampant speculating. But the U.S. can’t control a complex, sprawling global oil market”
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/may2008/db20080513_272469.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_news+%2B+analysis
Housing Woes In U.S. Spread Around Globe
The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States is mutating into a global phenomenon, with real estate prices swooning from the Irish countryside and the Spanish coast to Baltic seaports and even parts of northern India.
This synchronized global slowdown, which has become increasingly stark in recent months, is hobbling economic growth worldwide, affecting not just homes but jobs as well.
In Ireland, Spain, Britain and elsewhere, housing markets that soared over the last decade are falling back to earth. Property analysts predict that some countries, like this one, will face an even more wrenching adjustment than that of the United States, including the possibility that the downturn could become a wholesale collapse.
“How can you write a piece on Scholes and not say a word about the LTCM debacle?”
this kind of stuff always astounds me. We were talking about failing upwards the other day, and the media are complicit in it. Every five minutes the media pass along financial advice from James Glassman or Kevin Hassett without mentioning how their previous advice turned out. Same with Scholes. I’m sure we’ll get John Meriwether on CNBC any day now talking about risk management. And media promotions over the past three years are a Who’s Who of those who have been repeatedly horribly wrong on the major foreign policy issue of the day. Those who are right get banished (quiz for the day – whatever happened to Ashleigh Banfield?)
Here is one more reason to live in the North (or st least to hire smarter cops):
http://www.wftv.com/news/16288519/detail.html
VOLUSIA COUNTY, Fla. — A Volusia County deputy got a painful lesson in what it takes to trap alligators. He was bitten while trying to wrestle an eight-foot gator at an apartment complex in Deltona.
The deputy will likely survive after the bite. He was in serious but stable condition at the hospital.
It must have felt like a night out of an Animal Planet television show for the woman who came home to the Brightside apartment complex after a long day of work and found an alligator in the parking lot.
“I pulled up in my car and I saw an alligator there,” said Jaasmin Harris who found the gator.
With an eight-foot alligator right next to her car, Harris decided to sit tight for a bit. But after ten minutes of waiting for the gator to move, she called Volusia County deputies, worried the reptile might hurt someone.
“We heard cops laughing or talking or something and we happened to look over and there was a gator over there,” said Carlos Martinez, an eyewitness.
The laughing quickly stopped as witnesses say the deputies moved in on the alligator with a broomstick and a towel. During the scuffle, the gator mauled one of the deputies.
“So we went over there and a few cops tried to wrestle it and one got bit on the leg,” added Martinez.
“So then they decided they were gonna throw a towel on the thing and try to jump on it, and the dude that tried to jump on it got bit by the alligator,” said Harris.
Even as that deputy rolled off the gator’s back, witnesses say it kept coming after him. That’s when one of the other deputies pulled out a gun and shot it twice in the head.
The bullets didn’t actually kill the gator. A trapper came in and shot it with a bang-stick, killing the gator. The trapper said it was one of the most agile gators he’d ever seen.
The wounded deputy was flown to Halifax Medical Center.
U.S. housing bust not so special: report
The United States may be suffering its worst housing bust since the Great Depression but by international standards it’s not so special.
A new report by Goldman Sachs suggests the United States is going through a garden variety housing downturn that will involve a sharp slowing in overall economic growth and a sluggish recovery that equity markets will nevertheless sniff out well ahead of time.
Indeed, as far as house busts go, Canada can claim some fame. Our December 1989 to September 1998 slow motion crash was the fourth-longest of 24 busts among OECD countries, Goldman said.
It came in at 35 quarters, behind only Japan’s 67-quarter marathon during the 1990s, Germany’s post-unification slump of 52 quarters and Switzerland’s 45-quarter downturn during the 1990s.
In terms of price declines, Canada’s 1990s slump was the second-smallest. At a 16% decline in real prices, it came in ahead of Germany’s first property slump – a decline of 15% during the 1980s.
U.S. equity prices have also been atypical, rising even after the initial price bust and only acknowledging the damage a year after the bust began in late 2006.
In general, equity prices tended to peak nearly two years ahead of house prices. The trough in equity prices occurred on average around five quarters after the bust began, ahead of the trough in GDP and well before the housing bust ended.
Of course there is always a chance the current U.S. bust ends up making the Big Five the Big Six crashes but Goldman does not expect so – so far.
Interesting comment to link Equity market with Real Estate Market. I think initially large part of RE boom was due to Stock market crash and people feeling RE as safer investment.
““Stealth Layoffs” Sweep across Wall Street ”
Just to note that the banks I deal with that are up front with their employees about layoffs are coincidentally the same ones that are not getting hurt by the housing/cdo/credit mess.
Not a coincidence.
““Stealth Layoffs” Sweep across Wall Street ”
My company sells software to many industries. Financial Services vertical – This week large layoff. Almost 50% staff gone.
“How many of those Wall St jobs never would have existed if it hadn’t been for the housing bubble?”
bairen – further, how many bonuses were paid in 2003-2007 that wouldn’t have been paid if it hadn’t been for the bubble? These folks got a windfall to the extent they’re not getting clawed back on those bonuses (and of course they’re not).
From MarketWatch:
U.S. April housing starts up 8.2% to 1.032 million
U.S. April housing starts much higher than 939,000 expected
U.S. April single-family housing starts fall 1.7%
U.S. April building permits rise 4.9% to 978,000
U.S. housing starts down 31% in past year
U.S. April multifamily housing starts up 36%
U.S. building permits down 34% in past year
Here is something to make any homeowner cringe: http://www.wftv.com/slideshow/news/16250628/detail.html
From MarketWatch:
Housing starts surge on apartment construction
U.S. home builders broke ground on 8.2% more homes in April, led by a 36% increase in multi-family units, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.032 million, far more than the 954,000 estimated for March or the 939,000 expected by economists. Starts of single-family homes declined for the 12th straight month, falling 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000, the lowest since January 1991. Building permits increased 4.9% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 978,000.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Housing Starts Jump on Condos; Houses Drop to 17-Year Low
Construction of U.S. single-family houses in April dropped to the lowest level in 17 years, even as building of condominiums and townhouses rebounded.
Builders broke ground on 692,000 single-family homes at an annual rate, down 1.7 percent from March and the fewest since January 1991, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Total starts jumped 8.2 percent to a 1.032 million pace that was higher than forecast as construction of multi-family units increased 36 percent following a 35 percent drop in March.
Lower prices and bigger incentives have yet to revive demand for houses, indicating builders will need to come up with even more discounts to attract buyers. Stricter lending rules, job losses and growing pessimism about the economy signal sales will not rebound quickly.
“Buyers are asking: `Why buy now when I can buy six months from now at a lower price?”’ Avery Shenfeld, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “There’s still a clearing out of inventory of unsold homes that needs some further months to run.”
Building permits, a sign of future construction, rose 4.9 percent to a 978,000 pace, reflecting gains in both single- and multi-family units.
…
Starts increased in three of four regions, led by a 24 percent jump in the Midwest. Construction rose 19 percent in the West and 3.6 percent in the South. Starts dropped 13 percent in the Northeast.
# 55 “U.S. April housing starts up 8.2% to 1.032 million”
Is this a matter of builders, who have already sunk cash into land, trying to do something to recoup some of those otherwise lost monies?
44 shore
“Even though unsustainable, they kept sucking out bonuses and commissions as they packaged debt they must have known was going to come to no good end. ”
This is it in a nutshell from the financial end.
If you scam $50M in bonuses that you never have to pay back, is it relevant to you that the whole thing is a house of cards?
48
“The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States is mutating into a global phenomenon”
That CAN’T be true!! All real estate is local!!
More detail:
http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
bob: ““Capitol Hill is taking aim at what some see as rampant speculating.”
but I thought there was no speculation!
Anyway, I love this quote (from Herbert Meyer, former Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council):
“Second, there’s a lot of market speculation going on right now. If you were wondering what those greedy imbeciles who wrecked the housing market with their sub-prime mortgage gimmicks and funds are up to these days — well, they’re speculating in commodities”
Is this a matter of builders, who have already sunk cash into land, trying to do something to recoup some of those otherwise lost monies?
Looks like an increase in multifamily, apartment, condos, townhomes, etc.
Perhaps just a logical response to the demand for lower priced housing and increased demand for rentals?
We can’t really expect developers and builders to stop building on their own volition. To do so is the equivalent of willingly putting yourself out of business.
Hot off the wire, details to follow:
Fannie Mae announces single, national down payment policy
# 63 Here is a link to his whole piece:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/05/the_bum_rap_on_biofuels.html
# 65 Send what you can, when you can, if you can?
From Fannie Mae:
Fannie Mae Announces Single National Down Payment Policy;
Replaces Policy Regarding Markets Where Home Prices are Declining
Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) today announced a new, national policy on down payment requirements for conventional, conforming mortgages the company will purchase or guarantee. Starting June 1, 2008, Fannie Mae will accept up to 97 percent loan-to-value ratios for conventional, conforming mortgages processed through its Desktop Underwriter® (DU®) automated underwriting system, and 95 percent loan-to-value ratios for loans underwritten outside of DU, in all geographic locations in the United States. The new national down payment policy will supersede the policy the company adopted in December 2007 that required higher down payments in markets where home prices are declining.
“As another part of our ‘Keys to RecoveryTM’ initiative, we are today announcing that we will be equalizing the down payment requirements for borrowers in all parts of the country, regardless of local market conditions,” Marianne Sullivan, Senior Vice President, Single-Family Credit Policy and Risk Management, said. “This new down payment policy reinforces our goal to support successful home-owning, not just home-buying, as we seek to bring liquidity to all communities and help the housing market recover.”
The new national down payment requirements of 3 or 5 percent will apply to loans for purchase of single-family, primary residences. Down payment requirements will vary for other occupancy, property and transaction types. The company will implement systems and operational changes over the summer to accommodate the new national policy.
“We are able to adopt this new, national down payment requirement, even in markets where home prices are declining, because our new automated underwriting risk assessment model DU Version 7.0 will limit risk layering and assess each loan more precisely,” Sullivan added. “At the same time, we believe that equity matters, especially in this market. Down payments are a critical success factor in homeownership — and responsible lending is good business.”
News Release
May 16, 2008
Fannie Mae Announces Single National Down Payment Policy;
Replaces Policy Regarding Markets Where Home Prices are Declining
WASHINGTON, DC — Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) today announced a new, national policy on down payment requirements for conventional, conforming mortgages the company will purchase or guarantee. Starting June 1, 2008, Fannie Mae will accept up to 97 percent loan-to-value ratios for conventional, conforming mortgages processed through its Desktop Underwriter® (DU®) automated underwriting system, and 95 percent loan-to-value ratios for loans underwritten outside of DU, in all geographic locations in the United States. The new national down payment policy will supersede the policy the company adopted in December 2007 that required higher down payments in markets where home prices are declining.
“As another part of our ‘Keys to RecoveryTM’ initiative, we are today announcing that we will be equalizing the down payment requirements for borrowers in all parts of the country, regardless of local market conditions,” Marianne Sullivan, Senior Vice President, Single-Family Credit Policy and Risk Management, said. “This new down payment policy reinforces our goal to support successful home-owning, not just home-buying, as we seek to bring liquidity to all communities and help the housing market recover.”
The new national down payment requirements of 3 or 5 percent will apply to loans for purchase of single-family, primary residences. Down payment requirements will vary for other occupancy, property and transaction types. The company will implement systems and operational changes over the summer to accommodate the new national policy.
“We are able to adopt this new, national down payment requirement, even in markets where home prices are declining, because our new automated underwriting risk assessment model DU Version 7.0 will limit risk layering and assess each loan more precisely,” Sullivan added. “At the same time, we believe that equity matters, especially in this market. Down payments are a critical success factor in homeownership — and responsible lending is good business.”
Since the housing correction began, Fannie Mae has expanded its mortgage guaranty business to serve the market’s urgent need for stability, liquidity and affordability. The company also undertook steps to help protect borrowers, manage the increased credit risk in the market, and fortify the company’s capital position. Among these steps, the company has continued to assess and establish new pricing, eligibility and underwriting criteria for its business that more accurately reflect the current risks in the housing market and guard against the potential for foreclosure. These changes have been incorporated into DU and have included adjustments to credit risk assessment, loan-to-value ratios and down payment requirements, among other factors.
Among the changes in response to market conditions, in December 2007 Fannie Mae adopted a “Maximum Financing in Declining Markets Policy” that restricted the loan-to-value ratios on properties in markets where home prices are declining, essentially requiring higher down payments in these markets. The new single national down payment policy announced today will supersede that policy.
Fannie Mae Senior Vice President Jeff Hayward stressed the company’s commitment to special affordable lending programs to support homeownership for families of modest means. “We are stepping up to provide more liquidity and affordability to some of the most distressed communities while also seeking at least a 3 percent down payment investment through our Desktop Underwriter system from borrowers to help ensure their success.”
Fannie Mae will continue to provide support for homebuyers that need down payment assistance, and will continue to allow loans with Community Seconds® up to a maximum 105 percent combined loan-to-value ratio. Community Seconds allow a borrower to obtain a second-lien mortgage to help cover down payment and closing costs, with funding typically provided by a state or local housing agency; an employer; or a nonprofit organization. Fannie Mae also offers MyCommunityMortgage® and Flex mortgage products, which permit down payment assistance programs in the form of gifts and grants.
“We recognize that down payment assistance programs remain a viable tool for borrowers who can afford a mortgage long term, but might need a little help getting started,” Sullivan said.
As part of its “Keys to Recovery” initiative, Fannie Mae is expanding its partnership with the National Council of State Housing Agencies. The company will provide up to $10 billion in financing to help Housing Finance Authorities (HFA) serve first-time homebuyers of modest means. In some cases, Fannie Mae will purchase HFA mortgages that have greater than 97 percent loan-to-value ratios.
The first “Keys to Recovery” initiative that Fannie Mae announced on May 6, 2008 also includes: streamlined refinancing for Fannie Mae borrowers whose mortgage balances exceed the value of their homes; improved pricing for jumbo-conforming mortgages to help borrowers in high-cost areas; and a neighborhood stabilization initiative with the Center for Community Self-Help for targeted areas with high home foreclosures.
Your fingers were faster than mine lol.
http://www.fanniemae.com/newsreleases/2008/4370.jhtml;jsessionid=KDVSLLYXKUVPHJ2FECHSFGQ?p=Media&s=News+Releases
#4 grim;said some New Jersey homeowners are feeling the pinch and have come to her organization to complain.
Complain about what?
“We are able to adopt this new, national down payment requirement, even in markets where home prices are declining, because our new automated underwriting risk assessment model DU Version 7.0 will limit risk layering and assess each loan more precisely,”
Sounds like one hell of a black box.
grim Says:
Fannie Mae announces single, national down payment policy
The mortgage insurers must also be on board. If Fannie gives you a 95% loan but you can’t get the M.I., it’s useless.
Ahhhhhhh. More smoke blon in an effort to APPEAR to be doing something.
blown, anyway
Actually, I think it is more of a quiet shift towards risk-based pricing for individual loans.
I would like some opinion on my experience in making an offer for a house last weekend.
MLS ID: 2491018 (it’s an old listing that says withdrawn, but there is a new listing for it)
OLP: $285,900
LP: $268,999
I came in with an offer of $225,000, 84% of the current list price, as a starting point for negotiating. The response I got was “come back when you’re serious.” Was I really that unreasonable with my offer? It’s a 3 bed, 1 bath ranch on a 50×100 lot. There’s no back year to speak of because there is a detached garage, and the house is in major need of upgrading (green shag carpet being enemy #1)
I didn’t think my offer was that unreasonable given my personal observations on my own street in Hillsborough. My next door neighbors house has been for sale for over a year and have dropped the list price 16% and is now under contract for the 4th time, because the buyers couldn’t get financing the previous 3 attempts. A house across the street that sold last summer went back up for sale in the winter. Why? I don’t know. My neighbor across the street that moved in almost 2 years ago, still hasn’t been able to sell his house in another section of town. Another house down the street was repoed because the guy that was looking to flip it didn’t pay his property taxes. A house next door to that one is back on the market after being under contract, because the buyers couldn’t get financing. So given the carnage I’ve witnessed on my half mile of road, am I really that unrealistic on my offer?
New York City gaining jobs.
Slight decline in financial activities jobs (NY state #).
Slight increase in professional and business services (NY state #).
This contrasts with mainstream media reports about jobs because the mainstream media reports about jobs are sensationalist and misleading. Witness posts #6 and #11. The journos aren’t doing their jobs very well.
http://www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/Pressreleases/prtbjd.txt
Now, lenders want proof of income, proof of how much money you have, and proof of where that money is coming from. Banks are just picking apart the appraisals.
How am I supposed to get a mortgage now? Oh no!
# 77 My approach, which, admittidly, is quite hard @s$ed in negotiations, would be as follows:
I would forget about this house and not look at it for another few weeks, at least.
If by mid July it has not gone UC, I would approach them again, with an offer that is $1,000 lower than the first one — reflecting the continuing slide in RE values.
If they countered with something reasonable, I would then decide how far I was willing to go for that particular property.
If they were again insulted, I would walk away and let it sit. Maybe I would go back with an even lower offer later on, maybe not.
There are lots of properties out thee and this one does not sound like a unique gem, so no need to worry. What one does not buy today will only be worth less (but one hopes not worthless) a few months from now.
Others here might negotiate differently, but that is my approach.
#55 grim: Of course Kudlow and his merry gang and all the rest will be spinning this.
They will simply ignore the decline in SF starts, and just scream housing starts are up, no recession here.
There will be no mention that the increase was in multi-family starts,and ironicaally many of these mult-family increases may be for rental units.
Was I really that unreasonable with my offer?
Did you present a written offer, through your own agent, with a check and prequal/preapproval attached? Did your agent attempt to sell your offer, or was it “presented on a garbage can lid?
GetAClueNJ [77],
Tell the listing agent and/or party who made that remark that your offer will drop by the same dollar amount when they have to re-list and drop the price again.
Also let them know that you’re not insulted and understand their frustration. Let them know you’re there for them and will take the property off their hands when they reach despair.
Thanks for advice grim. I also forgot to mention the house is located in Somerville.
I’m a first time buyer at the ripe old age of 25. I stumbled across this blog this week and am verry happy to see there are other people here in NJ that share the same economic views that I have. I hope to become a contributing member to conversations that take place here as I find them to be very well thought out and logical ones.
#69 grim; Simply incredible!! Have we learned nothing/ Here we go again? Housing collapse the saga continues?
http://www.wftv.com/video/15817645/index.html
That web site you gave also had a scary girl fight video
# 78 “The journos aren’t doing their jobs very well.”
So, why should this story be any different than any number of others. Having the pleasure (?) ow working closely with a number of major national and international media outfits has only caused me to realize how little we can expect from the news media. The lack of analytic ability in so many reporters and editors, and the inability of most to do much beyond regurgitate press releases is a real problem, and one that is transparent to much of the news-consuming public.
Add to this the fear that many in the media have about “losing access” to policy makers, etc., if they actually engage in even-handed but hard-hitting reporting, and one has to question the work product being put out in the name of news.
#82,
Yes, I had the $1,000 deposit check and the prequal letter from the mortgage broker and a 20% down payment. The seller’S agent told my agent that the seller wants to do a quick closing and have everything said and done in 4 weeks, so I figured they would at least be willing to negotiate. He also said there was another offer, but I’m sure there’s always another offer when you go to put one in.
376 grim:risk-based pricing for individual loans. Risk based? Based on what? Not amount of down payment, that is for sure.
And to me at least, that is how you determine risk. The larger the down payment, the more skin, in the game, and the more likely people will pay their mtgs.
At least that is how it used to be.
# 86
Journalism at its finest. Just add Jell-O.
Keep up the good work, folks. I have to go fire someone.
Just a thought, I wonder how $4 dollar gas will effect home sales at the Jersey Shore and the Hamptons. I called about that short sale in the Hamptons to go and see it and then realized to drive their and look around a bit is a 200 mile trip. Firing up a minivan or 4 by 4 every weekend is expensive. I know the Hamptons have stated (I believe them) that Hotel Occupency will be at an all time record this summer. That often happens when airfares are sky high. But that is different then committing to going on a 200 mile round trip 20-30 weekends a year for the next few years. Who knows Gas might be the final kick in the pants of vacation homes you have to drive to.
#78 pret; So my financial head hunter friend who has been in the business 25 years, and expects this down turn in Wall street jobs to be the worst she has seen in her career, is wrong?
He also said there was another offer, but I’m sure there’s always another offer when you go to put one in.
Always.
I advise my buyers to play the same game.
They always have another offer on the table.
“With all the inventory on the market, you don’t really think this is the only house they are interested in, do you?
We expect to hear back from the other party by the weekend, so we would appreciate if you could get back to us quickly.”
#78 – The majority of the y/o/y gains ( as a %) were in Edu/Health & “Natural Resources & Mining” (!?!). Fairly static overall though, esp. given that this covers the entire state.
At what point do the media again pick up “underemployment” as an ongoing theme?
That is the full-timer cut to part-time; still employed but at no where near the same salary.
John,
You drive to the Hamptons?
3b,
Instead of requiring a larger down payment, to reduce loss rates, you simply raise the cost of the loan (rate) so that additional interest income will cover the increased losses. Net result is the same.
So instead of increased downpayments and lower rates in declining markets, we see a flat downpayment policy and increased rates.
Super.
This is only anectdotal evidence from someone who sells primarily to plumbing and HVAC contractors doing new construction work.
The ONLY thing going on in new residential construction right now is multifamily work and retirement homes. And I would say that runs about 70% apartments vs. 30 % condo / townhomes. Every contractor who focused on SFH construction has laid off his staff, sometimes up to 90% on some of the big, non-union players.
This has reverberated throughout the supply industry as well. Building materials, plumbing, and HVAC wholesalers are laying off people in droves. Most of these companies are smaller and privately held so they don’t make the headlines.
Commercial construction is just OK, nothing outstanding, but not as devestated as SFH construction. I’m fortunate in that I focused our efforts os multifamily work a few years ago and our company has a very strong commercial presence.
#97 grim: Man we are just simply the best.
“bob: ““Capitol Hill is taking aim at what some see as rampant speculating.”
Jamil [63],
I never stated that there was no speculation. I was astonished to hear that this was taking place on an exchange.
Help me with this one. If speculation was overly rampant why don’t commercials sell 5X their production forward? In adddition to this, why don’t we release reserves from our SPR?
#98
Strange. You would think the reduced construction would lead basic materials prices to fall, but they have skyrocketed. The world just doesn’t make any sense anymore. They always did use the term “rational consumer” in my economics classes. Now I know why.
Another option is a higher credit score requirement in previously noted “declining markets”. I could even see increased rates across the nationwide in an attempt to cover the increased losses in those “declining markets”.
Clue,
A bit dated, from January, but it drives the point. From Reuters:
Lumber prices hit 5-year low, cutbacks seen
North American lumber prices fell to a five-year low on Thursday as the slow down in home building has wood piling up at lumber mills, industry experts said.
As a result, the big lumber mills in Canada, which ship much of their production to the United States, are losing money and will likely cut production, they said.
At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which prices North American lumber, lumber futures for January delivery fell to $208.70 per thousand board feet, the lowest since November 2002.
President Bush said Tuesday he was disappointed in “flawed intelligence” before the Iraq war and was concerned that if a Democrat wins the presidency in November and withdrew troops prematurely it could “eventually lead to another attack on the United States.”
How did this moron get elected twice, let alone come from the same gene pool as his parents?
Bob (100#):
“why don’t we release reserves from our SPR?”
Strategic reserve is not for inconveniences or price manipulations, it is for major (disastrous) disruptions, such as oil embargo.
#101
Basic materials are now a global commodity.
ABS pipe is on an allocation basis here in the US now, some major manufacturers have sold or gotten out of the business. This really only effects residential construction in a few areas of the US, NJ being one of them.
PVC tracks oil prices to a degree
Copper and steel apparently still have a strong global demand.
Framing lumber prices have increased since those January lows, but remain considerably lower than during the housing market peak..
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?genericContentID=527
stu: do you think it is a good idea to let Al-Qaida to get a safe heaven in Iraq? How did that turn out in Afghanistan in the 1980’s? Obama has promised to invade Pakistan and attack Iraq if Al-Qaida gets safe heaven there and I don’t think that policy make any more sense.
No matter what you think about the decision to go to war, now we are there, and somebody is going to win (Al-Qaida, Iran or US).
#103
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#6months
What about copper though? The price of that is up, and people know it. I always see thefts of copper and other metals in the newspaper because the scrap price for it is so high. Going into vacant homes and stealing the wiring and copper tubing is also popular.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120959221333557457.html
Or this WSJ article where cities around the country are having bronze statues stolen for scrap money. Anybody know how we can get the Statue of Liberty to the scrap yard? I bet she’s worth a pretty penny.
grim Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 9:25 am
3b,
Instead of requiring a larger down payment, to reduce loss rates, you simply raise the cost of the loan (rate) so that additional interest income will cover the increased losses. Net result is the same.
So instead of increased downpayments and lower rates in declining markets, we see a flat downpayment policy and increased rates.
Super.
In view of probably 90% starter home buyers buying homes even now with 3-5% (may be 10%) down, I’d say – BRING 10% mortgage rates on!!!
As a first time home buyer I would love nothing more than to see mortgage rates skyrocket to 10-12%. Since no first time buyers are buying homes with cash anymore, affordability will plunge and house prices would have to drop significantly (30-50%) in this case.
This was I’d rather pre-pay my mortgage instead of having fat savings account and instantly get something like 7% return (not 10% due to mortgage interest deduction).
As some of my older friends used to say – well when we bought our first home in 1980’s interest rates were in teens – it should be easy for you to buy it now with 6% interest… I would ask them – how much did you pay – 70K!!!
How much would you sell it for now – 350K!!!
Here you go!!!
SO please please please – bring on 12%+ rates.
Just a thought, I wonder how $4 dollar gas will effect home sales at the Jersey Shore and the Hamptons. I called about that short sale in the Hamptons to go and see it and then realized to drive their and look around a bit is a 200 mile trip. Firing up a minivan or 4 by 4 every weekend is expensive. I know the Hamptons have stated (I believe them) that Hotel Occupency will be at an all time record this summer. That often happens when airfares are sky high. But that is different then committing to going on a 200 mile round trip 20-30 weekends a year for the next few years. Who knows Gas might be the final kick in the pants of vacation homes you have to drive to.
John,
If you can’t afford $100 in gas what makes you think you can afford a home in Hamptons?
Hotel business is gonn abe big you’re right but the house rentals will get beat up.
to all of the builders / contractors on this board, here is a NYT article that tells the other side of the story:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/garden/15contractors.html?pagewanted=1&_r=3&ref=todayspaper
Somebody will win Jamil and we will lose either way. So what if we beat Al-Qaida in Iraq (or an insurgency that is really more concerned about themselves than in supporting Bin Laden). Where does this leave us? What stops wealthy children of Saudi families from attacking us. A U.S. victory (too late for that in actuality) in Iraq and our establishment of military bases there will actually serve to solidify Bin Laden’s stance.
Someone said it yesterday. Stop relying on Fox to think for you. Think for yourself for once. If some members of congress and the senate did this on occasion, we would not be in this mess.
Politics Off!
Pretorius is absolutely right! Jobs are being lost everywhere else, but here. See look at the link!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aU1HmbTvKJaQ&refer=home
Jamil [106],
Thanks, you learn something new every day, on this site.
Why are we adding 70,000 barrels in day if we are in the midst of an irrational bubble?
“3b Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 9:20 am
#78 pret; So my financial head hunter friend who has been in the business 25 years, and expects this down turn in Wall street jobs to be the worst she has seen in her career, is wrong?”
Yes. The case of a New York City jobs carnage is based on reports by mainstream media outlets and personal anecdotes.
We’re almost a year into the financial crisis. If there was going to be a jobs carnage in New York City, then employment numbers would be crashing by now.
From Brian Bethune at Global Insight (no link):
Brian Bethune
Chief U.S. Financial Economist
Global Insight
Bottom Line
Overall housing starts rose by 8.2% in April, but that was entirely due to a sharp upward bounce in noisy multi-family buildings – single family starts declined by 1.7%.
Total building permits also rose by 8.2%, with both single and multiple unit permits moving up.
The number of homes under construction declined by 0.7%.
Outlook
Starts and permits bounced upwards in April, but most of this upward momentum is likely connected with statistical anomalies. With respect to starts, there was a huge upward bounce in multiple family starts, a sharp recovery from relatively depressed levels in March. The bounce in multi-unit permits reflected the rebound in multi-unit starts. Finally, the uptick in single family permits was likely connected with the unusual timing of Easter in March.
We would not read too much into the April housing report beyond statistical noise. The overall pace of housing activity continues to trend downwards as market conditions remain weak and inventory levels remain excessive. This is reflected in declining levels of homes under construction and housing units completed. The housing market overall has not yet reached a trough — Global Insight does not expect activity to stabilize until the end of 2008.
The only potential good news to take away from this report is that the rate of decline of housing activity is likely to decline in the months ahead — permits have fallen well below the 1 million mark and are down 55% from their peak in early 2006. However, it is definitely too early to uncork the champagne on the long and winding road to more healthy housing market conditions.
#110
You are exactly right, and that is the reason why I am so frustrated and discouraged by the current housing market. Nobody knows how to save anymore. Of the few friends of mine that have bought houses, none put more than 3% down, some even 0%, or got a piggyback loan for the 20% downpayment. I actually have a 20% down payment in cash, but at the current price levels, even after putting 20% down, the monthly payment is still unaffordable. I have no credit card debt. I have an auto loan that is going to be paid of tomorrow morning. My only expenses will be cell phone, car insurance (paid for the year), and gasoline. I snuck in under the stimulus payment threshold by $900, so according to the government, I border on making a lot of money, yet I still can’t afford a home in an area where I don’t have to worry about being robbed or shot.
On top of everthing, the price of every basic necessity, such as food, gas and electricity, is skyrocketing. So what do we do? LOWER interest rates! Ben Bernanke is killing me. I may need two dartboards, one with his face on it, and another with Greenspan’s.
Pretard,
There’s a fine line between being contrarian and retarded. Congrats, you just crossed it!
STU: eh fox bashing. Stop reading NYT and think yourself. Why do you think Drive-By Media is not talking about Iraq anymore?
Surge was a success, “benchmarks” have been met, things are now going on very well in Iraq. Al-Qaida is largely defeated and (more importantly) rejected by iraqis. Iraqi army is getting things done. Iranian attempts to set up Hezbollanistan (via sadrists) in Iraq failed. If this continues, Iraq will be a good place (and ally) in middle east (instead of being like Gaza strip and base of AQ or Iran). Appeasing dictators and surrendering in war has rarely produced anything good.
My only expenses will be cell phone, car insurance (paid for the year), and gasoline.
No food? Let me know how you do it, it’s getting expensive to fill the cart.
Jamil,
When we withdraw from Iraq like we did from Korea and Vietnam, then tell me about our success.
From MarketWatch:
Consumer sentiment falls in May, lowest since 1980
Consumer sentiment in May fell from the prior month, reaching its lowest level since 1980, according to a Friday media report. In recent months, high fuel and food prices, along with falling home values have pulled down sentiment. The U.S. consumer sentiment index in May fell to 59.5 from 62.6 in April, according to a Friday report from University of Michigan/Reuters. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a result of 61.0.
#121
I’m still with Mom and Dad. I know, I know. They should have thrown me out by now. I have a bowl of cheerios in the morning, work picks up my lunch, and the ‘rents give me dinner. So I only pay for food when I go out, which is less and less these days, as my friends are finally realizing they need to cut back on expenses and that credit cards are killing them.
pret [115],
Simply clueless.
So Grim and others,
Were you aware that Nouriel Roubini wholeheartedly supports the Frank-Dodd proposal? This surprised me a bit, but I understand where he is coming from. Essentially, he believes a minor government bailout is much greater than a huge government bailout, a la the Great Depression. Sort of like Bernanke’s logic on bailing out Bear.
It certainly surprised me, although I still think that the moral hazard issue irks me to no end.
Grim, why do you always post fluff articles about layoffs but ignore the underlying data that shows that the employment situation really isn’t that bad?
#121 stu:
Yes, I agree with you. if we withdraw too soon, it will be a failure and win for AQ or Iran (or both), and Obama will attack Iraq (let’s see how it goes then), as he promised (if AQ gets in Iraq).
This is the reason we must stay there and finish the job. We are still in Germany and Japan. I expect the next few years to be the most critical. Then we can stay in bases, in an arrangement similar to Germany/Japan/UK/UAE, to provide strategic security guarantees.
#79
Now, lenders want proof of income, proof of how much money you have, and proof of where that money is coming from. Banks are just picking apart the appraisals.
How am I supposed to get a mortgage now? Oh no!
We just sent in the paper work to be pre-approved only a couple of days ago.
They wanted 2006/2007 W-2’s
ALL banks statements (all pages)
ALL Retirement info (all pages)
Payment stubs
Photo IDs
It was a 37 page fax.
#115 pret:personal anecdotes.
Not to be insulting, but I put much more credence in the personal anecdotes of a highly regarded wall st head hunter in the busienss for years, than the new kid on the block, who’s only point of reference is he had a tough time getting a job after the dot com bust.
It is amusing that you and others now blame the media for faulty journalism, now that the environemnt has changed.
Were you faulting the media when the housing market and wall st was booming?
How come it is only the media’s fault when housing/economy gets bad or slows down, but when housing/economy was booming, the media was just reporting the facts.
Patience Pretorius!
The tech bubble took years to burst. It lasted from February 2000 to September of 2002. That is 31 months. The credit crisis in the financial markets are at 9 months. Just 5 months ago, these same people were receiving record bonuses instead of pink slips.
Just as Jamil (like his hero president called all combat operations in Iraq accomplished) makes his early calls, you too need to give it some time. In another 11 or so months, then we can more accurately weigh the outcome of employment on wall street.
I suppose you can say that the lack of terminations so far, has served to support prices (mostly high end) in Northern NJ. But even then, I thought the high end was the area showing the greatest percentage declines.
#121
I’m still with Mom and Dad. I know, I know. They should have thrown me out by now. I have a bowl of cheerios in the morning, work picks up my lunch, and the ‘rents give me dinner. So I only pay for food when I go out, which is less and less these days, as my friends are finally realizing they need to cut back on expenses and that credit cards are killing them.
Same scenario for us. The only difference is we “were” renting and moved back in with the parents to help them out until they sell their house. They insist on cooking dinner every night. We have no credit card debt at all and are only paying for my wife’s car and what’s left of school for her along with car insurance. We also give my parents money to help pay their bills. I will say this though, it seems every time we go to the store and buy even just a couple of hand held baskets of stuff it’s nearly $100! It’s out of control.
Suze Orman says financial institutions should be forced to freeze borrowers payments at their initial amounts.
Forced.
http://money.cnn.com/?cnn=yes
3b,
The velocity of calls I receive from headhunters hasn’t slowed. My company is hiring aggressively. We’re leasing more space.
I spend a lot of time with New York office building owners and brokers, who unanimously confirm that 2001 & 2002 was a lot worse. For sure, leasing activity has slowed, but compared to 2001 & 2002 more companies are looking for space and very few are trying to sublease space they don’t need anymore.
The employment data shows that there is no jobs carnage in New York City. The doom-and-gloom scenario – for New Jersey home prices and New York City jobs – simply isn’t playing out.
“I will say this though, it seems every time we go to the store and buy even just a couple of hand held baskets of stuff it’s nearly $100! It’s out of control.”
So when (and a big if) the dollar strengthens, should we expect prices to come down?
ha ha ha
This contrasts with mainstream media reports about jobs because the mainstream media reports about jobs are sensationalist and misleading. Witness posts #6
#6
In Westchester County, the jobless rate rose to 3.9 percent in April from 3.2 percent a year earlier, according to data released yesterday by the state Labor Department. In Rockland County, the jobless rate climbed to 3.9 percent from 3.4 percent. And in Putnam County, it jumped to 3.6 percent from 3.0 percent.
…
The finance and insurance sector was one of the hardest hit, losing 1,000 jobs in the three-county area during the past year.
Pre,
How are these numbers misleading?
http://www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/index.asp?reg=hud
Private sector employment in the Hudson Valley Region increased over the year by 3,200 or 0.4 percent, to 752,000 in April 2008. Employment gains were largest in educational and health services (+3,000), professional and business services (+2,100), and natural resources, mining and construction (+1,400). Job losses were centered in financial activities (-1,700), and manufacturing (-1,300).
http://www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/PressReleases/pruistat.htm
Putnam-Rockland-Westchester: Since April 2007, the number of nonfarm jobs has increased by 4,600, or 0.8 percent, and the number of private sector jobs has increased by 3,500, or 0.7 percent. The area’s unemployment rate was 3.9 percent in April 2008, compared with 4.4 in March and 3.2 in April 2007.
#98 This is only anectdotal evidence from someone who sells primarily to plumbing and HVAC contractors doing new construction work.
Anectdotal evidence is not allowed. Only evidence that is backed up with multiple graphs and reams of statistical data from approved sources is permitted.
I am sorry and feel bad, but we can only have this almost “scientific” type evidence as proof.
I am old school like yourself. I believe that there is no better type of information than that provided by the people who are involved in the business every day, no matter what the business is.
Pre,
Why didn’t you provide numbers here? Why did you take it upon yourself to use a subjective description instead of objective data?
Slight decline in financial activities jobs (NY state #).
Slight increase in professional and business services (NY state #).
Financial Activities Jobs -3,400
Professional and Business Servies Jobs +1,100
#134
So when (and a big if) the dollar strengthens, should we expect prices to come down?
ha ha ha
Well, even sellers have pipe dreams :)
The carnage is coming. I just received my second bank owned listing in less than a week in the Upper Newstead section of South Orange.
139 was actually me. Stop using my computer, Stu!
Getaclue:
FYI: There’s a LOT more to “groceries” than food… there’s things you don’t think about like salt and flour, things you don’t shake out of a box into a bowl…and cleaning items like detergent, soap, razors…they cost a lot!
Also, utilities have a way of creeping up in price. You have hot water and lights on, and that takes money.
Life is a bunch of little expenses that we never add in…
#133: While I believe that Wall Street (and NYC) loses jobs, I have to second pret. My company is hiring a lot of people (including a lot of people from Wall Street) and we are expanding rapidly. Relocation teams are working overtime moving people here (including from India, China, Europe, and southern US). Many buy NYC condos (without any fees, closing costs etc) right away. (though I heard that they complain about being the only one in their floor).
So yes, Wall Street loses jobs but there are plenty of other jobs. I would love to see massive Wall Street job losses and eliminate them from the housing market but so far it does not look good. If things don’t improve (meaning job losses and price drops), I’ll be out of here.
Has anyone ever watched a controlled implosion (other than the Gary Hart campaign or the Elliot Spitzer or Jim McGreevy administrations)? In the first little bit after the charges go off, nothing happens. It is as if the detonations have had no affect on the structure at all. After what seems like forever — at that moment anyway — then everything crumbles.
To analogize to the current economic situation, we are early in the process, just after the plunger was pushed. It may be hard for this instant-results culture to accept but it takes time for the results of economic dislocations to work their way through the economy.
Seeking Alpha:
Don’t believe Paulson: S&L 2.0, the Bank Failure Redux
http://seekingalpha.com/article/77584-don-t-believe-paulson-s-l-2-0-the-bank-failure-redux
“Now, for those banking CEOs, homebuilder CEOs (ex. Mr. Hovnanian), monoline CEOs and government officials (ex. Mr. Paulson), who claim that the worst is behind us – I can smell you guys!”
Great graphs as well.
#133 pret; I will defer to you on the commercial real estate aspect of this discussion, since this is your line of business.
That being said some points to consider.
1. We will see more office space once JP Morgan moves into Bear’s old headquarters, what impact that has I will leave up to you.
2. The people you spend time with, could very well be wrong. Wall St was oh so very wrong.
3. The employment dats is starting to show the job losses. Deny all you wantt but the street has been laying people off, and it is my opinion they will continue to.
4. The doom and gloom scenario for NYC jobs and NJ home prices is not playing out? Well what is it doing? It is not playing out according to your time table, but it is playing out.
You expect this thing to be wrapped up in a year, and yet all the factors that led to the problems we are now experiencing took more than a year to come together.
If all is well, where is all the demand for all of the homes that are now avaialable throughout north Jersey?
grim Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 10:00 am
My only expenses will be cell phone, car insurance (paid for the year), and gasoline.
No food? Let me know how you do it, it’s getting expensive to fill the cart.
Come on – if goverment can discard it from inflation, you can discard it from your living expences as well….
Vis-a-Vis job losses, according the Barry Ritholtz:
“I have over the years discussed what a poor economic recovery this cycle has been in terms of job creation. Given the lack of robust job creation, its not a huge surprise that layoffs typical of most recessions have yet to appear.
Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg notes it has become “economic myth” that the April employment report was benign. In particular, he notes that hours worked, one of the employment metrics reported by the BLS, is rapidly declining. In the April NFP release, hours worked plunged:
“Companies did not cut as many positions as expected, they cut the hours instead. The average work week plunged 0.3% (and, aggregate hours worked were down at an annual rate of 1% in the past three months), which, by the way, would be the equivalent of 400,000 job cuts.
This is a sign that labor market conditions and domestic demand are far softer than the headline suggests. What drives consumer spending inevitably is income growth. Average weekly earnings fell 0.2% sequentially in April in what was the largest decline in two years. This dragged the year-on-year rate down to 3.1% from 3.3% in March, 3.7% in February and the nearby peak of 3.8% posted last November in what is clear disinflationary trend in wages.
The rebound in the Household survey was all in part-time employment. While there was a nice rebound in the Household Survey, it was all in part-time employment – that is not the driver of confidence and spending.”
Grim; should I Parlor Car, Jitney, Helecopter? If I had a house out their I would leave a car out there and just drive around in that. Hamptons is all about cars. I remember a few clubs back in the day who had a no American/Japanese car policy in their lots. Went to snooty club once in my friends Corvette and they would not let him in the lot out front when asked where he should park, the guy said put it in back and when my friend said the only spot left back their is by the dumpster the parking lot guy said “Yea I know and that is where that thing belongs” The next summer my friend got a triple black 911 Cab. I love the Hamptons.
grim Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 9:22 am
John,
You drive to the Hamptons?
#142 jamil:but there are plenty of other jobs.
What kind of plenty of other jobs that pay like Wall St pays.
And job cuts on wall st affect many otehr business lines in NYC. Lots of law firms that do busienss with the stree reporting that things are very slow,and people are concerned.
grim (1)-
“By softening the down-payment policies, Fannie and Freddie are taking more risks.”
These words do not fill me with confidence.
“grim Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Pre,
Why didn’t you provide numbers here? Why did you take it upon yourself to use a subjective description instead of objective data? ”
Because it contradicts the preposterous notion that Pret continues to perpetuate here that he presents objective data and you don’t.
Anecdotal story. (got to make this quick-I’m still without an assistant and should be working…)
Yesterday, I went with another njrereport poster to look at some commercial property.
The property is “for sale” on the hush… the principals don’t want the employees to catch wind of an impending job loss, so we were looking at the property as possibly “sub-leasing part of the space”…
We walk in and there, across the back wall of the office, filling a loooong filing shelf, stand binder after binder after binder…each having a label neatly printed in bold, 20pt arial font… except for various dates, the title of each binder was the same…
“Home Depot”
This company, a sub-contractor IN NO WAY DIRECTLY RELATED to the housing industry persay, will, when they find a buyer for the property, be letting go almost 100 people who may have never been late on a bill in their life.
And I say it that way because we always denigrate those who “deserve” this housing bust… but this shows how wide reaching this problem really is.
bairen (13)-
Everybody’s starting to wake up to the idea (IMO, a foregone conclusion) of a complete Fannie/Freddie/FHA bust & bailout scenario.
Yesterday, I saw a post aobut a guy in CA getting ready to buy land from a Resolution Trust Co-type entity.
That’s the first RTC reference I’ve seen in the current press. I suspect it won’t be the last.
I lived through RTC and cut my teeth in RE dealing with them. The future version- in terms of size, scope and mission- will dwarf the old one.
#150
Risk smishk. This is about the American Dream and continuing to feed the delusion that everyone is entitled to anything they desire regardless of the level of their economic success. Don’t worry, be happy. Or, from a bit further back, “Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorow you may die.” Or, to paraphrase an even earlier time, “We, who ae about to be bailed-out, salute you.”
Chase owns most of its buildings. In midtown they have a horrible lease at 245 Park and that lease is expiring soon and no everyone can be squeezed into 277 or 270 Park. People are fighting the move to NJ, Metrotch of 1cmp. The people in 245 Park will move to Bear’s space. Chase got rid of its Hicksville, 2 CMP and Water Street spots in the last few years so space has been consolidated. 245 Park was going to be let go regardless of the merger. Plus that WTC deal downtown was pie in the sky anyhow. Chase may go ahead anyhow with that deal if price is right and they can sublease part of it anyhow. Take a look at Chase’s BS they are a huge owner of RE in NYC.
#149: I don’t know exactly what is the typical Wall Street salary (200k?), but there are plenty of good-paying jobs out there, eg at my company (preferably phd or mba from top-15 school or foreign equivalent) and those need law firms and other services, as well. I assume (and hope) that the NYC jobs losses accelerate, so let’s hope the “controlled implosion” theory is right and in a 1-2 year we see those promised massive job losses. Where the heck are they? I was promised a recession and I want it now!
Cindy (17)-
You might find it amusing to know that all serious (not the Tony Robbins-type) real estate training focuses upon the concept of FEAR OF LOSS.
Every RE sales technique that truly works (buy or sell side) succeeds in triggering the client’s fear of loss.
Techniques that focus on desire to gain or desire to win…they sound great, but they don’t work.
bairen (27)-
Please stop making sense. You’re giving me a headache.
Shore (28)-
Freaks and cannibalism…in the same story!
Now, that’s my idea of news.
pretorius Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 10:23 am
3b, The velocity of calls I receive from headhunters hasn’t slowed. My company is hiring aggressively. We’re leasing more space.
I spend a lot of time with New York office building owners and brokers, who unanimously confirm that 2001 & 2002 was a lot worse. For sure, leasing activity has slowed, but compared to 2001 & 2002 more companies are looking for space and very few are trying to sublease space they don’t need anymore.
The employment data shows that there is no jobs carnage in New York City. The doom-and-gloom scenario – for New Jersey home prices and New York City jobs – simply isn’t playing out.
pret: dude….in 2001 they flew planes into a couple of buildings; closed the stock exchange for a week; and Verizon had it’s grid ripped out below Canal Street. Every freaking NYC based firm realized that they needed operations that were not only off Manhattan, but further on a different power grid, accessing different trunk lines, and also represented clear geographic diversity.
Chill, chill, chill, chill…let this play out….
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Decreases to 28-Year Low
Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in May to the lowest level in almost 28 years as record-high fuel prices, lower home values and fewer jobs rattled Americans.
The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 59.5, the weakest level since June 1980, from 62.6 in April. The measure averaged 85.6 in 2007.
Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, is cooling as surging food and fuel costs erode Americans’ buying power and job losses mount. Declining home prices and stricter lending rules are also preventing owners from tapping real- estate equity to buy expensive items like cars and furniture, raising the risk that growth will stall in coming months.
“The consumer is getting extremely grumpy,” said Brian Bethune, director of financial economics at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, who forecast confidence would drop to 59.6. “The economy is flirting with a recession. The only thing keeping it out is this huge amount of pump-priming going on,” including Federal Reserve interest-rate reductions, the government’s stimulus package and discounts by retailers.
The confidence index was forecast to fall to 62, according to the median of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 58.5 to 66.4.
Cindy (30)-
“This analogy may help – a “Human” – Homer Simpson – automatic system…
an “Econ” – Mr. Spock from Star Trek.-reflective system”
Mash the above together, and you’ve got Pret’s black box.
Pret: you would know better….who is the mix of clients…..oil and sovereign money? foreign domiciled companies? isn’t it feasible that summer/fall 2008 will look more like 1988 than 2002? I have no clear…I’d like to hear your perspective….
(50)-
“The trapper said it was one of the most agile gators he’d ever seen.”
Grim, you could start an entire thread with just the above statement.
I have no clear OPINION …I’d like to hear your perspective….
Just laughed out loud on a corporate-wide conference call.
Thanks.
#44
“This whole collapse has the feel of a systematic fleecing scheme.”
I see it more as a misalignment of incentives. The incentives of the majority of financial engineers are largely short term (e.g., year end bonus). They are rewarded for taking big risks that pay off within a certain time period, often regardless of how they fare long term (the clawbacks in PE funds are an interesting exception). Meanwhile they sell products to people who have a much longer view. It’s not a deliberate fleecing
(68)-
Hope Fannie didn’t buy this black box at Bear Stearns’ yard sale:
“…our new automated underwriting risk assessment model DU Version 7.0 will limit risk layering and assess each loan more precisely…”
#161 chgo: “Street jobs”.
Just laughed out loud on a corporate-wide conference call.
Thanks.
you may findd yourself a full time bloger and realtor if you keep this up.
What was soo funny?
grim (76)-
“Actually, I think it is more of a quiet shift towards risk-based pricing for individual loans.”
Exactly right. And, it’s the secondary market, not Fannie, ushering in those changes.
Even the 760-FICO, squeaky-clean borrowers get clubbed with 50-75 bps of premium.
Got a couple of dings? One mortgage late payment? You’re up to 125-200 bps.
The Saudis just gave Bush the one finger salute…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6ssNXHZzD0I&refer=home
Story on GSMLS #2498453?
UC
grim (102)-
“Another option is a higher credit score requirement in previously noted “declining markets”.
But, hasn’t Alt-A taught us that high FICO score is not an accurate predictor of ability to repay?
The number one red flag for mortgage default is transition into negative equity.
Any idea on OLP, SP & DOM?
jamil (128)-
“Then we can stay in bases, in an arrangement similar to Germany/Japan/UK/UAE, to provide strategic security guarantees.”
Not to channel Ron Paul, but how, Jamil, do you suggest that we pay for this?
Ask the Romans, Ottomans, British and Spanish how the constant accretion of military outposts works out in the end.
pat (133)-
“Suze Orman says financial institutions should be forced to freeze borrowers payments at their initial amounts.”
Suze Orman should be forced to watch looped videos of ocelots mating, a la the scenes in Clockwork Orange.
This, from a lady who preaches personal repsonsibility on a weekly show?
The whole world has gone f-ing insane.
NNJ,
Sold: 7/1/2004
Sale Price: $429,000
(Major Remodel)
OLP: $839,000
Sold: 4/14/2005
Sale Price: $820,000
Listed: 3/14/2008
OLP: $900,000
DOM: 19
Under Contract
Pret (134)-
Thanks for reminding me that my daily life is just a bad dream.
However, can you suggest a way for me to wake up? ‘Cause I’m getting tired of the three former Wall St clients I have who need to close before Labor Day in order to avoid complete financial ruin.
“The doom-and-gloom scenario – for New Jersey home prices and New York City jobs – simply isn’t playing out.”
#178: Before Iraq war, we had 100,000 troops stationed at Iraq’s border (and Clinton ordered occasional air attacks into Iraq). Now we just keep the same amount (or probably a bit less, say 50k) of troops inside Iraq (rather than in Saudi-Arabia, which was bad for us anyway).
Also, long-term trend is to reduce to number of troops in old Europe anyway.
Yes, it cost money, but the alternative kills us (e.g. nuclear armed Iran getting dominance and control of all oil fields in the middle east and wiping off Israel – the price to world economy would be staggering)
Dealbreaker:
Layoffs Watch ’08: Morgan Stanley
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/05/layoffs_watch_08_morgan_stanle_2.php
Thanks grim.
Even a contiguous empire is hard to maintain. Just ask the Soviets, oops, I mean Russians. Or the Chinese.
#147
grim Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 10:00 am
My only expenses will be cell phone, car insurance (paid for the year), and gasoline.
No food? Let me know how you do it, it’s getting expensive to fill the cart.
Come on – if goverment can discard it from inflation, you can discard it from your living expences as well….
Couldn’t have said it better myself. Bravo!
grim/richnj : Can you tell me the commission % paid (if possible) for 672 Center Avenue in River Edge which closed yesterday at 435K.
This house sold in October fo 04, for 458K, the new owners put in a new kitchen,and new bathroom, re-did the wood floors, and restored all the original wood moulding and trim. it had been empty since August 0f 07.
I have to say (gary are you listening) I was surprised that it sold for as much as it did, as there are bigger better houses for sale in River Edge, in much nicer locations with ASKING prices in the low 400’s, although the fact that it was nicely redone was probably a factor.
Howveer, for my purposes, this will of course be a new comp, and in my mond continue to give at least some sellers false hope that they can get their asking prices, and hence the continuation of this slow grinding decline in prices.
jamil (182)-
“Yes, it cost money, but the alternative kills us…”
So, either way, we’re screwed…it’s just easier- and nicer- to spend ourselves into oblivion?
Jamil, are you George Bush?
#104
“How did this moron get elected twice”
maybe this explains the RE bubble in blue states? drive up the price of housing so red staters can’t afford to move to a blue area? Then blue staters can cash out, move to a barely red state and turn it to a blue one?
NEW YORKERS DEAL WITH THE CRUNCH
http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http://www.nypost.com/seven/05152008/realestate/new_yorkers_deal_with_the_crunch_110846.htm
Gauging the Slowdown’s Impact on Office Space
http://www.nysun.com/real-estate/gauging-slowdown-s-impact-office-space
$127.35
the speculation continues…
#182 jamil: The west being involved in the Middle East is and was a disaster, it was for teh French,a nd the British.
We will never be seen as anything more than occupiers.
And your belief that Iraq is going to emerge as some kind of stable democracy is delusional.
Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, thrown together in some artifical creation, that could only uinfortunatley be held together by a strong man lunatic like Saddam.
The one country there that might have had a chance at some sort of stable democratic society Lebanon, could not and will not pull itself together. And this in a country with only 3 million people.
Iraq is just going to end up as a bigger uglier version of Lebanon. And I firmly believe that the Kurds in the north when they get the chance will secede, which will of course create all sorts of problems with the Turks.
McCain believes we will “win: by 2013, I wonder how he defines “win”. And this from a man who cannot get Shiites and Sunni’s straight.
3b (#192):
The West let Iran and Syrian to control Lebanon. That’s even more reason not to let iraqis suffer the same fate. Take a calm look at how things are going on in Iraq. Political process (after seeing the results of letting Al-Qaida and Iran to control things, and seeing what happened in Lebanon and Gaza) made the process easier for Iraqis.
btw, the story about McCain getting sunni-shia wrong is total BS, created by NYT. (That dem chairman of senate committee did not know the difference, though).
This could be done in NJ, too:
“Since Arizona’s local law enforcement began enforcing illegal immigration laws and an employer sanctions law went into effect, illegal immigrants have been fleeing the state in large numbers. The effects have been far-ranging. Commuters are reporting fewer vehicles on the freeways, shortening their rush-hour commutes. What had become a serious transportation problem in Arizona is losing its urgency. English Learner Language (ELL) students started dropping out of school. This helped end a confrontation between the state legislature and a liberal federal judge who had ordered the state to spend more money on ELL classes. Fewer illegal immigrants are using hospital…”
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/quotes.aspx?symb=GC08M&sid=1494329
How you like me now Mr. Bergabe and Mr. Paulson?
What’s a matter not much Gold left in Fort Knox for you to flood the market with? All that schooling and Education and you don’t know that MARKET ALWAYS WINS.
That’s Austrian Economics 101. Put the keynsians and monetary texbooks away they’re useless.
Hey Bi,
Where’s Cheney go today? How come the Saudi’s aren’t raising oil production? Oh yeah, because reality is they can’t!
Saudis see no reason to raise oil production now
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080516/ap_on_re_mi_ea/bush_mideast_104
“$127.35
the speculation continues…”
patient [191],
Yeah, once I told my margin clerk that the market was irrrational, my position was correct. He politely answered, all that matters is price.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.
#193 How exactly did the West let Iran and Syria control lebanon, based on what? Were we supposed to control it?
Reagan did the right thing initially IMO by sending the troops in to Lebanon to try and stabalize the situation. He made an effort,and when he and the military leaders at the time saw what a quagmire it was (after the death of 183Marines) they made the right decesion and got out.
How exactly were we to stabbalize that country, occupy it?
As far as Sunnii’s and Shiites, I agree with you, very few politicans know and understand the players there,and even fewer American people.
Although the Soviet Union was destined to collapse, Afghanistan bled it to death, and Iraq is going to bleed us to death.
#198 NNJ I would not worry about BC Bob.
The military action in Iraq has cost, what, about $800 billion so far with a total cost expected to be somewhere around $3 trillion? If we had spent the $800 billion on solar and wind systems (some of it used to split water for powering fuel cells) and fuel cell development for powering buildings then it would not matter one little bit what happens in the Gulf. It only matters to us because we need oil. Take away the need, and it takes away the importance of what happens there. There are numerous places in the world where nut-jobs or nasty S.O.B.s rule, but, since we don’t need their natural resources, we don’t care and don’t get involved.
#196: this may very well be true (they can’t), but even more likely explanation is that they don’t have to. Aggressive oil production harms the oil wells, it gives more oil (and lasts longer, ie for future generations) if the production is less aggressive. Besides, they have enough money now. Heck, they can’t even spend it anymore.
# 196 “Saudis see no reason to raise oil production now ”
If you had a product that turned out to be fairly price inelastic, why on earth would you take an action that would speed the depletion of your inventory while concurrently lowering the price?
I was listening to Bloomberg on the way into work today. There was a quote from some Saudi OPEC oil minister who said, “If America wants cheaper oil, then they should stop devaluing their dollar.”
What’s sad about the quote is that unlike everything we’ve heard and read from our current administration (especially the FED), this Saudi was actually stating the truth.
Don’t worry though, this Jew is not about to join the Muslim community, at least not yet.
173 Hard Place Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 11:20 am
The Saudis just gave Bush the one finger salute…
—————–
I guess next time at the Ranch he’ll have to do more than hold hands.
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.”
NNJ,
A market wizaed?
Hell no.
# 205 May need to offer some “inflatio”
Shore guy (201): “There are numerous places in the world where nut-jobs or nasty S.O.B.s rule, we don’t care”
If they have WMDs (or fly jets into Wall Street), we care (or at least should care).
3B (199): They did not want to be ruled by Iran (they asked help from France and the “int community”), but Iran simply murdered them. We could have helped them.
As for Reagan’s withdrawal from Lebanon: That is pretty much the basis for Al-Qaida’s and Hezbollah’s strategy (“if you hurt them, they will surrender”). Instead, we should have crushed them (and Iran) then. Instead, here we are today. The probability of massive war in the middle east is 100%. There is no good solution anymore. The only question is whether they use WMDs (Iran operates all Hezbollah’s missiles in N.Lebanon) and when, exactly it takes place.
Forget about irrational, it’s time to be loonie.
Just curious but is anyone seriously considering buying a house in 2008?
If so what are your reasons?
I have been talking to a few people who are but they are only looking at foreclosures.
3B (199) said:
“Although the Soviet Union was destined to collapse, Afghanistan bled it to death, and Iraq is going to bleed us to death.”
Bin Laden (10/30/2004) said:
“And so it has appeared to some analysts and diplomats that the White House and us are playing as one team towards the economic goals of the United States, even if the intentions differ.
And it was to these sorts of notions and their like that the British diplomat and others were referring in their lectures at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. [When they pointed out that] for example, al-Qaida spent $500,000 on the event, while America, in the incident and its aftermath, lost – according to the lowest estimate – more than $500 billion.
Meaning that every dollar of al-Qaida defeated a million dollars by the permission of Allah, besides the loss of a huge number of jobs.
As for the size of the economic deficit, it has reached record astronomical numbers estimated to total more than a trillion dollars.
And even more dangerous and bitter for America is that the mujahidin recently forced Bush to resort to emergency funds to continue the fight in Afghanistan and Iraq, which is evidence of the success of the bleed-until-bankruptcy plan – with Allah’s permission. “
# 209 We only bacame a target because we had and still have in the Gulf. Had we not stationed troops in close proximity to Mecca and Medina we would not have been targets. The idiots who attacked us do not hate our freedom; thay hate us for infringing on their dream to revert to the middle ages.
I suggest we make their produce unnecessary to us and let them revert if they want. Other than an interest in seeing the Ishtar Gate, which I can live without seeing, I have no need to ever enter their world and if they wish to “go off line” and back in time so be it. We eventually have to move to a different source of energy, beter to do it sooner than later — especially since we are just enriching the people who want to hurt us the most.
Mitchell Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Just curious but is anyone seriously considering buying a house in 2008?
If so what are your reasons?
I have been talking to a few people who are but they are only looking at foreclosures.
I made 3 offers so far… – 2 were on REO’s at about 50% listed price (thouse were atrocious, complete remodel)
One was on property listed at 310K – I offered 250K (comps in the area were listed at 270K). Interesting listing detail – “newly remodeled kitchen (1997)”. I was pissed – IT is 11 years old kitchen! with 11 years old appliances.
Seller came back with 300. I withdrew my offer, verbally communicated that if they change their mind SOON I might submit 250K offer again. repeated SOON one more time, so they know that it is not a gurarantee, also mentioned that I will be submitting other offers. They are “thinking”. Meanwhile I looked at couple more properties and will make another offer.
So yes, there are people looking and making offers.
At 250K my PITI and taxes will be the same as If I rent a house in the area.
Jamil,
Do you find it unusual that your great leader is following in lockstep with the plan outlined by his greatest enemy?
Mitchell,
Of my friends that are looking now, all are interested in getting out of the city and getting more space for their money. $1M in Manhattan will get you a crappy 2 bedroom or decent 1 bedroom (not even nice). That same price will net you a nice 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath 2500-3000 sqft house in a nice town with a decent commute. Just as it was with my wife and I, we both had a feeling when it was time to leave the city. This might have something to do with our suburban upbringing. I think the same can be said for a lot of people that leave the city every year when they get close to their child bearing years. Not saying it is right or wrong but to a lot of people the move out of the city and into the burbs is a natural human programmed response. Each one I talk to is interested in getting a deal but is not looking at housing in the long term. I don’t say much because I would love my friends to be closer to me in NJ.
Not in 2008 and only a slim chance in late 2009. 2010 or later for me. I do check the market frequently and occasionally cast a line to see if anyone bites. That line though is generally not long enough in this deep pond. Guess the fish aren’t hungry enough yet.
My reasons for buying a house – need a place to live for next 5-6 years. Need a bigger apartment than what I have now (it is hard to be in a small 1bed/1bath, with a toddler and a dog. (I know, in China it would be a palace for 12 people – three generations of a family, thats why i do not live there.)
Jamil,the average wall street job pays $550K. What is your company paying for its new hires? A 200K salary of wall street is the coffee cart and Blarney Stone crowd who shops at BJs with coupons.
Those 550K jobs kept the maids, lawn service people, contractors, restaurants, bars, clothing, jewlery, travel agencies and German Car dealerships rolling around. Ten jobs are created for every one job on Wall Street. When that 550K guy gets cut we all cheer but when he finds a replacement job at 150K all those people and places he spend that money on is going down the toliet.
Well in China they would eat the dog so they would free up space.
Al Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
My reasons for buying a house – need a place to live for next 5-6 years. Need a bigger apartment than what I have now (it is hard to be in a small 1bed/1bath, with a toddler and a dog. (I know, in China it would be a palace for 12 people – three generations of a family, thats why i do not live there.)
219 Details, John. Just details. Remember, even if those jobs are replaced with $10/hr K-Mart jobs, unemployment has not changed.
Stu (215)-
Both Jamil and Dubya can only think in the kind of black/white terms you get on bad TV shows and children’s books.
The scary thing is, our enemies know that we crave inflexible, dogmatic and sub-mental chiefs of state who think that one-sentence platitudes constitute real leadership.
I would also include Obama in the above statement.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.
hahaha,
I own the metal itself, stay away from shorting and use my rent roll to support my (lowered) standard of living.
I can stay liquid as long as forign central banks are paying interest and US renters are paying rent.
Let’s see how long the market can stay irrational?
After 9/11, president Bush had the greatest opportunity of any modern leader to improve our economy, the world economy and our standing in the international community. By simply embarking on a mission to seek an alternative energy solution he could have harnessed the ingenuity that can only be fostered by a democracy like the United States of America.
Unfortunately, he used his golden opportunity to appease the wishes of the man who has silver spoon-fed his every accomplishment. He was determined to finish the job that his father started. Seven years later, we are one trillion poorer, have made enemies of our former allies and the cost of embarking on this mission has left us woefully unequipped to compete with our Communist neighbors of the East.
I suppose nothing less should have been expected when one elects an oilman whose daddy was in bed with the leaders of a country of which 15 of their youth chose to fly planes into Wall Street.
Jamil, you disgust me!
I am going to start looking in Jan 2009 and want to buy at the latest by Feb 2010 whether or not the market has reached bottom. My budget is one million dollars and five cents. One million for my new home and five cents for a pack of matches to take care of the old home.
Hey, no need to worry. Paulson has said that everything will be better by the end of the year.
John Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Well in China they would eat the dog so they would free up space.
Good One. I did nto think of it. However wouldn’t it be illegal in USA? Animal Cruelty?
Stu,
You seem to think there should be a connection betwen a nation’s interests, iths leader’s words, and its leader’s actions. Clearly you are not a neocon.
Shore-
Want fries with that?
At 250K my PITI and taxes will be the same as If I rent a house in the area.
In a few very short years PITI will be at 75% rent. People once again will have to pay for their none savings and poor credit.
It will be the incentive of cheaper montly pmnt that will force renters to save and buy a home and not some speculation of ever increses in values of homes.
By the time we are done with this recession and inflation it will have wiped out the middle class and their savings and left everyone with poor credit scores and a lot of debt.
Of course this is difficult to time but it’s inevitable.
230
Only if they are freedom fries. None of that french stuff for me. Well, except wine and maids.
John (219): “the average wall street job pays $550K.”
ok. I didn’t realize it was that high. Anyway, normal non-WS “good-paying job” DINK scenario would be close to that.
Stu (224)-
I don’t even think Dubya, the senior, is on board with the madness his son has promulgated since 9/11.
Check Dad’s public statements since the Iraq invasion…all two of them.
Dad’s not exactly backing son, and vice-versa.
#225 John: how much down?
Just curious.
They don’t even get a capital “F.” Anyway, bush got that from the House of Saud. What was tht I heard him say after his boot licking failed to persuade the Saudis to increase production rates, “Thank you Prince, may I have another!”
#217 hardplace:Not in 2008 and only a slim chance in late 2009. 2010 or later for me.
Not to be nosy, but is it a factor of prices not being low enough yet, and you do not think they will be low enough until lat 09, 10, or is it not enough of a down payment, combination of both?
George III our own Valerian, another emperor who was met with humiliation in the Middle East. At least he hasnt been used to help the Prince mount his horse yet (at least not that we know anyway).
Shore (237)-
“At least he hasn’t been used to help the Prince mount his horse yet…”
Yeah. The Prince is too busy mounting George.
#209 jamil: Do you even understand what was going on in Lebanon at the time,a nd is still continuing there today? Do you even know anything about the country? Which by the way was another artifical creation?
Who exactly in Lebanon asked for help at the time, the Sunni’s, Shiite’s,the Christians, the Druse”, the Palestinians?
217:
NJ Gator and I plan to purchase new home late 2009. Fortunately we do not plan to sell our current abode rather we will rent out the two units. I expect financial markets to implode sometime before then which would help my short positions. Even if not, have enough of a DP out of the market to afford it anyway, especially now that I have received my stimulus check. I only wish I was given enough advance notice as I could have had more children to increase the size of my stimulus.
I asked the IRS for stimulus, they gave me the name of a local proctologist.
C’est la vie.
#203 Shore: Bingo!!!
238
HILLARIOUS!!!!
#214- Al
Tell’em Al, let the greedy sellers with the “I’m not giving my house away” attitude that you are not overpaying for their “renovated” 11 year old kitchen either. Yeah!!! (smile)
# 238 When they are done humiliating George III on the world stage — for this is what they are doing, highlighting to the world his impotence — perhaps the Saudi’s will act like, ummm, was it Krum who took the Emperor’s skull liked with silver and used it as a drinking cup? Of course, the Saudis will use 24kt gold.
Jamil,
You are correct, aggressive retrieval of oil reduces the net retrieved from the field over the long term. The problem is Saudi Arabia is currently the only player in the world with supposed excess capacity. This whole “we’ve chosen not to increase prduction” is bunk. The reality is they do not have the ability to increase production nor do they have anywhere near the stated reserves they claim to have in the ground. Oil will likely be above $200 in the very near future. It is not a bubble; it is a reality.
# 241
Call Spitzer. I hear he has lots of names, but is too busy at home to take advantage.
make money Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
At 250K my PITI and taxes will be the same as If I rent a house in the area.
In a few very short years PITI will be at 75% rent. People once again will have to pay for their none savings and poor credit.
It will be the incentive of cheaper monthly payment that will force renters to save and buy a home and not some speculation of ever increases in values of homes.
By the time we are done with this recession and inflation it will have wiped out the middle class and their savings and left everyone with poor credit scores and a lot of debt.
Of course this is difficult to time but it’s inevitable.
I agree with you all points.
However, wild card now, as you admit yourself is inflation. If raising inflation will manifest itself in raising wages (I truly home that at some point it will) housing will pick up.
Right now salaries are sticky on the way up due to global market.
But with dollar devaluing and oil raising in price – at some point it will be economical to start producing good here – transportation expenses are raising, labor costs in developing countries are rising, and labor costs in US are dropping due to inflation.
And finally for DOOMS DAY Scenario:
If we have hyper-inflation (I hope not!!!) than in 5-6 years you have a potential to end-up with monthly payments equal to cost of one slice of bread – but you will not have to pay it as banks will go under at that time.
Personally I think in a few years we will end-up with 10-12% inflation with 5-8% wages inflation (notice that I still factor in loss in “real wages” at about 5%/year).
This will make houses “go up in price” – at least nominal, and having fixed mortgage payments at let’s say 6% interest /year will be quite nice.
Finally 5%/year loss seems not that big, until you realize that if it is going on for only 10 years – you are getting HALF of you “real salary” with 6% increase every year in your “nominal salary”.
This scenario is my prediction for the next 5-10 years.
I think nominal wages will start to pick up in 2 years – by 2010.
Again these are all my speculations, and the reason why I am making bids right now.
My main assumption – government WANTS/NEEDS (DESPERATELY) to inflate the dollar.
If one believes that government/regulators will curb inflation, or that inflation will not cause wages increases, then right now is horrible time to buy.
#239: I happen to know Lebanon, and its history, very well, and how the syrians and iranians are operating there. The fact is, the west could have helped Lebanon. Hariri asked it directly (before syrians killed him). Even the long-time druse US hater, walid jumblatt praised GWB and wanted to work with the US to save Lebanon.
This may be news to you, but lebanon does not want to be ruled by Iran (only the shias, and not even all shias). Now it is a satellite state of Iran and there will be a major war in the near future. Next time, it won’t be as easy as last time and I’m afraid, that WMDs will be used. Soviet-supplied, Iranian operated long-range missile sites have been refurnished (they can carry various WMDs into Israel). It will be messy.
Saudi to Boost Oil Output by 300,000 Barrels a Day (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6HAI8EIrTGQ&refer=home
If you think they can do more than that well good luck
# 246
I was talking with some CIA/NSC folks a few years ago, before we went into Iraq, their take on things was that Saudi Arabia was in danger (when they did not know, but in danger, nonetheless) of falling to a Wahabi revolution. The interesting thing, though, was that there was only one nation that had the oil reserves sufficient to offset the loss of Saudi oil.
Anyone want to take a guess as to which one it was?
Arr Elle Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
#214- Al
Tell’em Al, let the greedy sellers with the “I’m not giving my house away” attitude that you are not overpaying for their “renovated” 11 year old kitchen either. Yeah!!! (smile)
Actually there was no “I’m not giving my house away” statements. They thought I came in that low because I was leaving room for negotiation, and i explained that:
“I really like your house, it is great and very similar to what I am looking for.
But at current market/economicalconditions/and local taxes this is absolute best offer I can give you and I believe that I am overpaying quite a bit , but again I like the house.”
I do like that house I and I ma honest. If you think about it: average hosue in this country is at 198K.
I am offering 50K premium and taking on NJ taxes fr well mantained STARTER home.
Ok, no guesses yet and I need to get to a meeting. It was Iraq. Humm, Looking back to 2002, I wonder if there is anything we can do to secure access to those supplies should Saudi fall. Hummmmmm there must be something. Hummmmmmmmmmmmmm. Think, man, think.
#251: you need CIA to tell you that?
Anyway, there is potentially a lot of oil (in various forms, esp if you count oil shales etc) not just in Iraq, but also in Brazil and Russia (and US/Canada). Brazil is just now starting with massive new oil fields.
Hat tip to CR for the text/link:
From the FDIC:
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair at the Brookings Institution Forum, The Great Credit Squeeze: How it Happened, How to Prevent Another; Washington, DC
Without a doubt, we have some significant challenges ahead of us. And while some credit markets may be stabilizing, families, communities, and the economy continue to suffer.
Frankly, things may get worse before they get better.
As regulators, we continue to see a lot of distress out there.
Foreclosures keep rising as mortgages reset to higher rates, home prices keep sinking, and millions of families continue to struggle with unaffordable mortgages.
I can sympathize with these families.
I’ve seen hundreds and hundreds of ordinary people at foreclosure workshops desperately looking for ways to keep their homes.
And all of us can see the strain on state and local government budgets and the impact on the banking and financial systems.
And there is more uncertainty ahead.
Data show there could be a second wave of the more traditional credit stress you see in an economic slowdown.
Delinquencies are rising for other types of credit, most notably for construction and development lending, but also for commercial loans and consumer debt.
The slowdown we’ve seen in the U.S. economy since late last year appears to be directly linked to the housing crisis and the self-reinforcing cycle of defaults and foreclosures, putting more downward pressure on the housing market and leading to yet more defaults and foreclosures.
This is why regulators and policymakers continue to focus on the housing market.
We need to find better ways to help struggling homeowners.
And no I do not believe that 1 1/2 hour commute to Manhattan (one way, ideal conditions0) is a
“Convinient transportation to the city”
Except it’s not economically feasible at current prices to produce any of it.
Does anyone recall the price of oil back in 2000 when Bush, in a debate with Gore, asserted that oil was too expensive and that he would use his influence to pressure the Saudis to take action to lower oil prices?
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The Energy Department canceled oil shipments into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve beginning in July when the current purchase contract expires, the Associated Press reported Friday. The Energy Department will not sign contracts for new shipments of 76,000 barrels of oil a day for the six-month period beginning July 1, the news agency said. The reserve is 97% full, holding 701 million barrels of crude
# 254 Shale oil and oil sands might be fine sources of oil for petrochemical use — gotta love those long-chained hydrocarbons — but they show little promise as energy sources for the long haul.
We need to get off oil sooner than later and sooner would help us geopolitically.
#259 As if a 60-day supply of oil is good for anything other than fueling the navy and assets directly related to armed conflict in a crisis. The rest of us will not see a drop of it.
Well, we tried to open ANWR 10 years ago, but Clinton vetoed it. It would be now available.
Also, dems in congress refused to ease the use of oil shales (just few days ago the most recent example – now it is practically impossible).
We have oil in the US, we just don’t want to use it.
#249 jamil: My apologies, obviously you are more fmailair with Lebanon, than probably most.
But again, I aks what kind of help could we have provided, when the Lebanese people are so hopelessly divided/ And hope offered to one group, would have enraged all or one of the others.
Say what you want about the Syrians, but their intervention stopped the Lebanese from slaughtering each other. You cannot help people who will not help themselves. The civil war has been over 17 years,and the country is still at risk of blowing up again.
And many Syrians as well as Lebanese believe that the two entities should be united, as they were ruled as one unit under the Ottomans; perhaps they shoule be.
Before the French granted independence to Lebanaon, they suggestd to the Christians at the time that they should consider a much smaller geographical area as it would ensure that they would form a majortity in that area.
As you know the Christians insisted on a bigger chunk of territory ,and the rest is history.
I have no desire to see any more American lives and money wasted in a fruitless effort to convonce people to stop slaughtering each other,and make some effort to get along.
All this talk about oil and oil production and no sign of kettle1… I wonder is he’s sick today.
It’s not even the geopolitical benefits; if we want to maintain any sort of economic leadership as a nation we should be focusing our efforts in that direction because in the long term that is where the world is headed.
My company is pushing a work from home scenario soon to save office space costs but it has a bonus of saving the gas on the commute. I wish more companies would do this.
# 262 It amounts to a drop in the bucket, and is of no strategic impotance. 5% of the world’s population, which is no longer the wealthiest 5%, is not in a position to consume 25% of the world’s oil. If we do not move to alternate sources of energy, we will justly deserve the consequences we will face.
# 265 and if we get ahead of the curve, we may even be able to exercise market dominance for awhile.
Funny thing is that I noticed that most of the people I know keep their max mortgage betwen 200k and 300K regardless of what the house costs. That was if they lose their jobs they don’t lose their homes. My max budget is at most a 400K mtg so I need around 700K down. Not very hard to do if you bought pre-run up. If you bought pre-run up your house is up 200K even after the correction and since your monthly payment is so low you can afford to save each month. The peak people are in trouble. My neighbor who bought literally the week prices peaked in my crappy neighborhood paid in April 2006 617K for a house identical to mine that I paid 280K in Dec 1999. Even more scary when I bought in 1999 Chase still wanted a min of 20% down so we had equity on day one. The Spring 06 people only put 5% down. The finally kick in the pants is the peak people have zero or negative equity AND can’t save each month cause their mortgage payments are sky high and their is nothing left over each month.
Doyle Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#225 John: how much down?
Just curious.
Clotpoll Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Stu (215)-
The scary thing is, our enemies know that we crave inflexible, dogmatic and sub-mental chiefs of state who think that one-sentence platitudes constitute real leadership.
Stu: Willie Randolph?
jamil – I really don’t have time for your nonsense today because I have too much going on, but I’ve never known someone be so grossly misinformed on such a wide variety of topics, and yet hold forth as an expert.
If you were my friend, I would be embarrassed on your behalf.
As it is, you are an object of humor.
You should just go back to posting constant anti-immigrant screeds as you did when you first joined this board. At least irrational hatred doesn’t require knowledge.
U.S. to suspend oil reserve shipments
1:39pm: Oil falls from record near $128 a barrel as Energy Department says shipments to government oil reserves will end in July.
3b (236) – House purchase rational.
I’ve got enough of a downpayment. From my own internal needs, I would ultimately need to buy a place by mid 2011. I’ve got a 2 1/2 yr old son that would start kindergarten and I would not want to move more than once. From a market standpoint I am waiting for the peak of the loose lending to clear the system, the peak should be somewhere around 2009 and 2010. Also this latest credit cycle has just ended and the employment impact is only starting to be felt. Hopefully by than prices will be a little more sane.
What would blow up this scenario is another child. I already have two in a 2BR apt and a third would accelerate a purchase. FYI, I’ve stocked up on protection.
148,hours worked down: whereas my husband’s employer said a fortnight ago, “due to the tough economic climate, we expect everyone to put in 9 hour days, instead of 8″… sigh… glad he has a short commute. 4 yr old has started clinging to daddy’s leg each morning, begging him to stay home. :(
Republican Election Losses Stir Fall Fears
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and CARL HULSE
Published: May 15, 2008
WASHINGTON — The Republican defeat in a special Congressional contest in Mississippi sent waves of apprehension across an already troubled party Wednesday, with some senior Republicans urging Congressional candidates to distance themselves from President Bush to head off what could be heavy losses in the fall.
HC
#269 John:AND can’t save each month cause their mortgage payments are sky high and their is nothing left over each month.
But hey they are homwowners!!!
Willie Randolph? I’ll take the bait.
Ugh! Where do I begin. He is almost personally responsible for as many of the Mets losses as is Heilman. Twice this year, he wanted a pitcher to get a shutout so badly that they ended up losing a close one due to a tired arm. Willie just loves to let the hurting player bail himself out. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work when the boat is a sieve. $140 million and the team couldn’t hit the side of a barn. Delgado is the new Mo Vaughn and Pedro Martinez is the new Mike Bossy. It’s a real shame too as Sanchez (minus one really atrocious outing) and Wagner have been the best setup close ’em out tandem in the league.
Ultimately, you know it’s bad when Church, Pagan and Casanova (add in pitcher Oliver Perez) are the only guys on the team hitting over .270! Before this year, I never even heard of these three ;)
#273 hardplace; Understood. I was supposed to buy this year, simply because the owner of the ncie rental house ( a long time acquainenance) from the business was going to sell this year.
He was laid off form Wall St, part of the no layoffs on Wall St layoffs that are happening now, after many years with one firm.
Since he was close to retirement age, and kids are raised and gone, not that big of a deal for him. Although as he says after all those years it would have been nice if he left on his terms.
Anyhow, he is waitng for his wife to put in one more year, so I can stay until 09, but he absolutely plans to sell the house next year. So I did luck out with another year.
I could buy the house from him, and in fact he has actively encouraged it, but do not like the location, and the physical lay out of the house.
It is however a 3 bed 2 bath house ina “prestigious” Blue Ribbon Bergen county town, and the rent is incredibly cheap,with and a good commute.
John (219)
Could you point me to the application for the $550 Wall St. job. At this point I would take the $250 coffecart job or maybe a $150 shoeshine gig.
Hey Stu did you make it to the game yesterday afternoon?
Listened to the last innings on radio, not fun.
mr. met
Stu (277)-
I can’t even bring myself to watch the Mets. Haven’t tuned in to an inning’s worth yet. The boxscore and the first paragraph in the paper the next day are enough to make me throw up in my mouth.
Looks like my sports viewing this summer will be limited to Euro 2008…and my newfound target of hatred, the Red Bulls.
Republicans fear election juggernaut
FT
By Edward Luce and Andrew Ward in Washington
Fuelled by a strong African-American turnout, the Democratic win in Mississippi on Tuesday delivered the third consecutive Republican congressional defeat in otherwise safe districts following a recent loss in Louisiana and in the Illinois district of Dennis Hastert, the former Republican speaker.
Polls suggest the Democrats could increase their Senate lead from a 51-49 split to a safer 55-45 majority and add to their majority in the House of Representatives by 10 to 15 seats in the elections in November.
“Since 1980 I have not seen a terrain so tilted against one party as it is against the Republicans in 2008,” says Norman Ornstein, a political analyst at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
HC
I was there with my son and my exboss. The weather was great and the seats were awesome. The 7 inning non-hitter Pelfrey threw was pretty cool although he did walk a bunch of guys. Delgado (will end up being the most overpaid player in the NL) managed to blow the comeback in the ninth. He is so behind on pitches that he looks like a pitcher hitting. All in all though, a great time was had by all.
The Redbulls? Now that would be a great GTG location.
3b – Definitely wouldn’t buy a home unless it was near perfect, or priced low enough for me to make it perfect. Layout and location are probably the two most important things to me. If I’m going to live in a house everyday and raise a family there than it has to suit my needs. I would probably be renting in NJ too as well, but got a sweetheart deal on a 2BR in NYC. Can’t beat the commute and the fact that I’m supporting grandma’s retirement…
Stu (284)-
Been to a few games. It is surprisingly fun.
The diehards behind the goal are great at vicious and disgusting cheers.
I know what you mean. I’ve been to a couple MetroStars games myself. It’s a shame that the product on the field is slightly better than a kids rec league in Europe :(
i almost wanted to see Djorkaeff in action for MetroStars. almost.
Ants swarm over Houston area, fouling electronics
Well, scratch texas off the list of alternatives to NJ (as if it were ever on any list in the first place).
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080514/ap_on_re_us/texas_ants
Potentially busy Summer for Bergen Co. forclosures.
5/16/08 15-03 LUCENA DRIVE 1X FAIR LAWN 647447.62
762492 5/16/08 1161 15TH STREET FORT LEE 691183.41
762495 5/16/08 114 PASACK ROAD HILLSDALE 904860.18
762496 5/16/08 28 GRUNAUER AVENUE SADDLE BROOK 489718.25
762497 5/16/08 512 HIGHBRIDGE AVENUE CLIFFSIDE PARK 716783.32
762463 5/16/08 192 MAIN STREET EMERSON 417849.82
762498 5/16/08 46 CHAMBERLAIN AVENUE LITTLE FERRY 116229.46
762491 5/16/08 46 HOWLAND AVENUE RIVER EDGE 419667.05
762398 5/16/08 6 RIPPLEWOOD DRIVE UP SADDLE RIVER 509606.59
762074 5/16/08 42 POWELL ROAD EMERSON 201128.17
762285 5/16/08 35 WESTVERVELT PLACE WESTWOOD 390585.65
762422 5/16/08 144 CLAY STREET HACKENSACK 18255.06
762390 5/16/08 623 FREELAND AVENUE PARAMUS 525361.66
762387 5/16/08 181 LEXINGTON AVENUE DUMONT 287342.08
762381 5/16/08 319 ORIENT WAY RUTHERFORD 323634.62
762256 5/16/08 174 WILLIOW AVENUE HACKENSACK 354063.26
762347 5/16/08 286 ADRIANA STREET SADDLE BROOK 403749.84
762335 5/16/08 24 BEAVER AVENUE NORTH ARLINGTON 497661.69
762317 5/16/08 40 WESTBROOK AVENUE MIDLAND PARK 368090.54
762444 5/16/08 29 PARK VIEW PLACE FAIR LAWN 6315.99
762422 5/16/08 144 CLAY STREET HACKENSACK 170282.57
762096 5/23/08 635 AMERICAN LEGION DRIVE TEANECK 345349.95
762034 5/23/08 231 3RD STREET FAIRVIEW 308414.38
762003 5/23/08 223 MADISON AVENUE RIVER EDGE 355514.27
762409 5/23/08 29 CARTER STREET NORWOOD 342428.91
761873 5/23/08 51 DYER AVENUE SO HACKENSACK 295861.17
762457 5/23/08 383 WALKER STREET FAIRVIEW 389620.75
762148 5/23/08 526 KNICKERBOCKER ROAD TENAFLY 641539.59
762470 5/23/08 265 MONROE AVENUE RIVER EDGE 416761.48
762224 5/23/08 604 ELM STREET MAYWOOD 534245.02
761571 5/23/08 1 DECKER COURT MAHWAH 775141.96
762153 5/23/08 255 FOREST AVENUE TEANECK 438253.55
762186 5/23/08 60 SAMPSON STREET GARFIELD 413431.87
762215 5/23/08 27 SABINA STREET LITTLE FERRY 447941.34
762268 5/23/08 260 GARIBALDI AVENUE LODI 571167.96
762225 5/23/08 60 DEPEYSTER AVENUE TENAFLY 250827.58
762258 5/23/08 118 TEMPLE TERRACE UNIT A PALISADES PARK 496138.06
762029 5/23/08 230 WARREN STREET ENGLEWOOD 358236.74
762413 5/23/08 203 SOUTH VAN DIEN AVENUE RIDGEWOOD 992051.73
762474 5/23/08 336 MAC ARTHUR AVENUE GARFIELD 8261.28
762265 5/23/08 363 PALISADE AVENUE BOGOTA 298493.23
762487 5/23/08 283 TEANECK ROAD RIDGEFIELD PARK 295579.17
762499 5/23/08 824 CREST PLACE washington twp 387476.4
762056 5/23/08 23 ROOSEVELT STREET LITTLE FERRY 454803.82
762334 5/23/08 16 ORATAM ROAD UP SADDLE RIVER 1037603.58
762349 5/23/08 206 SEMEL AVENUE GARFIELD 451749.17
762353 5/23/08 106 HILLSIDE AVENUE WESTWOOD 284871.9
762429 5/23/08 3210 NICHOLSON AVENUE FAIR LAWN 434019.64
762475 5/23/08 269 HIRLIMAN ROAD ENGLEWOOD 339479.24
762423 5/23/08 213 GLEN AVENUE PALISADES PARK 558366.76
762424 5/23/08 83 OWENO ROAD MAHWAH 188510.79
762450 5/23/08 600 ELIZABETH STREET NEW MILFORD 619040.1
762297 5/23/08 89 JEFFERSON AVENUE TENAFLY 378581.24
762481 5/23/08 7-9 PASSAIC STREET & 9 BLOOMINGDALE GARFIELD 884207.46
762480 5/23/08 70 WEST PASSAIC STREET ROCHELLE PARK 140983
762446 5/23/08 45 SYCAMORE STREET PARAMUS 348848.9
762447 5/23/08 500 HIGHRIDGE AVENUE CLIFFSIDE PARK 546730.74
762449 5/23/08 64 OAKLAND STREET ENGLEWOOD 334156.88
762425 5/23/08 475 BANTA AVENUE GARFIELD 30970.95
762399 5/23/08 39 CENTRAL AVENUE DUMONT 158903.87
762454 5/23/08 405 BURLINGTON ROAD PARAMUS 432744.54
762520 5/30/08 749-B IN BUILDING 4 IN TALL TREE RIDGEFIELD 73019.59
762348 5/30/08 150 MAIN STREET LITTLE FERRY 498867.59
762521 5/30/08 740 CORNWALL AVENUE TEANECK 412974.78
762393 5/30/08 20 BROWN PLACE BERGENFIELD 403948.7
762391 5/30/08 24 ANDERSON AVENUE BERGENFIELD 254467.36
762460 5/30/08 28 7TH STREET ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS 788530.37
762137 5/30/08 258 COLUMBIA AVENUE LODI 619941.7
762421 5/30/08 1144 JULIA STREET TEANECK 311965.37
761913 5/30/08 664 SLOCUM AVENUE RIDGEFIELD 449531.02
762389 5/30/08 405 SEMINO ROAD NORTHVALE 267181.42
762292 5/30/08 80 EAST GROVE STREET BOGOTA 173806.08
762145 5/30/08 28 ACKERMAN DRIVE MAHWAH 598250.46
762108 5/30/08 32 PARK AVENUE CRESSKILL 489224.15
762062 5/30/08 1275 ANDERSON AVENUE UNIT A1 FORT LEE 532218.81
762431 5/30/08 30 PINE STREET RAMSEY 125604.7
762442 5/30/08 66 CYPRESS AVENUE BOGOTA 400895.08
761904 5/30/08 25 BURNING HOLLOW ROAD SADDLE RIVER 2403957.1
762511 5/30/08 12-42 ROOSEVELT PLACE FAIR LAWN 353146.88
762452 5/30/08 87 GARDEN STREET TEANECK 257717.33
762199 5/30/08 171 BOULEVARD GLEN ROCK 580760.14
762510 5/30/08 417 FOURTH STREET CARLSTADT 302148.13
762333 5/30/08 64 SCHUYLER AVENUE NORTH ARLINGTON 340089.51
762516 5/30/08 179 S. PARK STREET HACKENSACK 8084.04
762509 5/30/08 532 ROFF AVENUE PALISADES PARK 658648.67
762514 5/30/08 25 HAYWARD PLACE WALLINGTON 15000
762277 5/30/08 175 VAN NOSTRAND AVENUE ENGLEWOOD 437441.29
761854 5/30/08 30 LINWOOD AVENUE ELMWOOD PARK 351831.66
762320 5/30/08 15 STONYBROOK ROAD TENAFLY 1024107.51
762515 5/30/08 1842 LONGVIEW COURT TEANECK 339061.55
761887 5/30/08 113 PALISADE AVENUE EMERSON 678963.45
761895 5/30/08 15 DOGWOOD LANE EMERSON 854457.6
762490 5/30/08 166 THRID STREET ENGLEWOOD 323105.41
762513 5/30/08 17 CHESTNUT STREET GARFIELD 378538.46
762512 5/30/08 137 HOEFLEYS LANE LEONIA 424619.13
752743 5/30/08 garfield TEANECK 70951.47
762507 5/30/08 124 VALLEY BROOK AVENUE LYNDHURST 330726.92
761964 5/30/08 4 AZALEA DRIVE WALLINGTON 766830.72
762522 5/30/08 188 JEFFERSON AVENUE CRESSKILL 562642.02
762505 5/30/08 284 STATE HIGHWAY 17 RUTHERFORD 537487.88
762504 5/30/08 4 ORCHARD DRIVE UP SADDLE RIVER 214570.55
762503 5/30/08 68 EAST MAPLE STREET TEANECK 154076.14
762502 5/30/08 167 HILLSIDE AVENUE TEANECK 432044.46
762501 5/30/08 5 LAWRENCE AVENUE LODI 510247.05
762500 5/30/08 239 10TH STREET CRESSKILL 254461.41
762240 5/30/08 24 CENTRAL AVENUE OLD TAPPAN 213754.16
762196 6/06/08 11 AGAR PLACE SO HACKENSACK 324935.37
762529 6/06/08 599 SUMMIT AVENUE HACKENSACK 561988.46
762506 6/06/08 493 BEVERLY ROAD TEANECK 434250.43
761973 6/06/08 20 PIKE STREET ALPINE 1573485.58
762476 6/06/08 28 ATKINS TERRACE EAST RUTHERFORD 146156.55
762483 6/06/08 158 WEST PASSAIC STREET MAYWOOD 452883.98
762486 6/06/08 15 ROMANO DRIVE DUMONT 286636.2
762466 6/06/08 420 SUTTON AVENUE HACKENSACK 388234.92
761780 6/06/08 21 FIRST STREET LODI 129540.37
762478 6/06/08 49 COLUMBIA STREET ELMWOOD PARK 365862.1
762527 6/06/08 645 8TH STREET LYNDHURST 577518.15
761803 6/06/08 181 WEST QUACKENBUSH AVENUE DUMONT 391620.91
762523 6/06/08 320 LYNN DRIVE FRANKLIN LAKES 1124390.02
762458 6/06/08 166 HOWLAND AVENUE PARAMUS 452805.81
762369 6/06/08 37 PLEASANT AVENUE MAYWOOD 473416.34
762528 6/06/08 374 VAN EMBURGH AVENUE RIDGEWOOD 1069657.14
762525 6/06/08 47 VILLAGE DRIVE MAHWAH 880961.29
762518 6/06/08 540 NORDHOFF DRIVE LEONIA 152510.76
762524 6/06/08 82 ELIZABETH AVENUE ELMWOOD PARK 297752.36
762472 6/06/08 201 SECOND STREET BERGENFIELD 167775.24
762286 6/06/08 101 WYCKOFF AVENUE WALDWICK 454424.36
762316 6/06/08 89 WILLIAMSON ROAD BERGENFIELD 483336.18
762322 6/06/08 4 ANDREW PLACE FAIR LAWN 332918.65
762341 6/06/08 314 PALISADE AVENUE #6-A CLIFFSIDE PARK 301497.45
762519 6/06/08 49 INTERVALE ROAD TEANECK 358745.75
762337 6/13/08 98 OVERPECK AVENUE RIDGEFIELD PARK 452899.49
761956 6/13/08 1369 RIVER ROAD TEANECK 300556.43
761260 6/13/08 28 SERRELL DRIVE MONTVALE 562219.84
760909 6/13/08 12 CAMERON ROAD SADDLE RIVER 801837.55
762385 6/13/08 108 DORCHESTER ROAD HACKENSACK 420062.19
762202 6/13/08 11 LAKEVIEW AVENUE ROCHELLE PARK 288826.47
761459 6/13/08 223 LINCOLN AVENUE RIDGEWOOD 564436.05
762088 6/13/08 30 PEHLE AVENUE SADDLE BROOK 293244.31
762537 6/13/08 136 DYER AVENUE EMERSON 348097.05
762143 6/13/08 167 DELAWARE AVENUE DUMONT 21728.34
762439 6/13/08 40 SPRING DRIVE DUMONT 14171.63
762494 6/13/08 97 SCHOOL STREET BERGENFIELD 220467.68
762461 6/13/08 31 PARK ROW WALLINGTON 260760
762357 6/13/08 128 HENRY STREET PARAMUS 755202.1
762538 6/13/08 617 SLOAT PLACE RIVER VALE 592442.37
762532 6/13/08 549 HOWARD STREET WASHINGTON TWP 231752.59
762536 6/13/08 51 GRANT STREET FAIRVIEW 369771.3
761796 6/13/08 1-14 PLAZA ROAD FAIR LAWN 137168.23
762530 6/13/08 893 MARION PLACE RIDGEFIELD 414381.2
762531 6/13/08 178 RIDGE ROAD RUTHERFORD 821882.91
762331 6/13/08 79 JAMES STREET ENGLEWOOD 388462
762533 6/13/08 491 DEWEY AVENUE SADDLE BROOK 241359.03
762534 6/13/08 340 WEBSTER DRIVE NEW MILFORD 508170.34
762535 6/13/08 27 EAST BROAD STREET BERGENFIELD 308715.38
762540 6/13/08 263 PALSA AVENUE ELMWOOD PARK 18799.49
762462 6/13/08 50-52 ORANGE STREET ENGLEWOOD 263682.77
762008 6/20/08 105 MERCER STREET WALLINGTON 229673.1
761852 6/20/08 9 BURGER PLACE WESTWOOD 9952.66
762558 6/20/08 299 ORADELL AVENUE PARAMUS 713289.6
762432 6/20/08 37 ATKINS TERRACE EAST RUTHERFORD 297156.86
762453 6/20/08 13 DEBIKA DRIVE ENGLEWOOD 284768.72
762227 6/20/08 100 WINSTON DRIVE, UNIT 5F-S CLIFFSIDE PARK 425993.35
761885 6/20/08 30 PALISADE AVENUE BOGOTA 280896.33
762166 6/20/08 58 GROVE STREET HACKENSACK 400651.03
762345 6/20/08 30 MEHRHOF ROAD LITTLE FERRY 372023.05
762072 6/20/08 722 ABBOTT AVENUE RIDGEFIELD 19689.03
762440 6/20/08 169 SHALER AVENUE FAIRVIEW 420913.84
762397 6/20/08 423 THOMPSON STREET HACKENSACK 444655.6
762557 6/27/08 52 EAST MAPLE STREET TEANECK 272896.07
762559 6/27/08 475 BANTA AVENUE GARFIELD 157935.8
761116 6/27/08 651 COLONIA BLVD WASHINGTON TWP 485720.96
762216 6/27/08 229 EVERETT PLACE ENGLEWOOD 349503.77
762562 6/27/08 1003 CRYSTAL LAKE TERRACE FRANKLIN LAKES 335757.35
762561 6/27/08 449 SOUTH ELM STREET MAYWOOD 94449.45
762543 6/27/08 39 UNION STREET UNIT 410 HACKENSACK 293244.38
762560 6/27/08 211 ELSMERE PLACE FORT LEE 548870.95
762550 6/27/08 515 ANDERSON AVENUE APT 4G CLIFFSIDE PARK 235150.32
762549 6/27/08 61 CORABELLE AVENUE LODI 279668.71
762547 6/27/08 47 BRANDT STREET LITTLE FERRY 373062.49
762546 6/27/08 191 WEST PALISADE AVENUE ENGLEWOOD 493453.41
762545 6/27/08 590 WINDSOR ROAD WOOD RIDGE 345145.5
762544 6/27/08 235 LANZA AVENUE GARFIELD 468888.24
762551 6/27/08 453 ORCHARD STREET ENGLEWOOD 424322.63
762541 6/27/08 82 ELIZABETH AVENUE ELMWOOD PARK 87953.61
761940 6/27/08 22 HOBART PLACE GARFIELD 340376.29
762552 6/27/08 134 PINE STREET BOGOTA 338462.88
762554 6/27/08 393 MURRAY AVENUE ENGLEWOOD 238389.48
762517 6/27/08 241 WASHINGTON PLACE CLIFFSIDE PARK 468929.28
762555 6/27/08 416 LESTER STREET LEONIA 381523.59
762556 6/27/08 51 KANSAS STREET HACKENSACK 403348.76
762542 6/27/08 49 MURRAY HILL TERRACE BERGENFIELD 351093.36
762548 6/27/08 175 WEST SHORE AVENUE BOGOTA 476489.63
762576 7/11/08 4 MARCOTTE LANE TENAFLY 795597.63
762526 7/11/08 58 SHERMAN PLACE GARFIELD 419264.86
762325 7/11/08 71 STEWART STREET DEMAREST 623200.36
762564 7/11/08 201 12TH STREET #8 PALISADES PARK 154116.32
762577 7/11/08 5 SHERBROOKE CT SADDLE RIVER 740952.29
762165 7/11/08 227 STATE ROUTE 5 FORT LEE 684002.27
762267 7/11/08 420 BEVERLY ROAD TEANECK 467798.88
762566 7/11/08 15 ZABRISKIE STREET UNIT 2 HACKENSACK 368195.05
762367 7/11/08 103 WHITTMAN STREET ROCHELLE PARK 391873.06
762563 7/11/08 188 PARK AVENUE CLIFFSIDE PARK 387392.55
762508 7/11/08 34 PARKVIEW AVENUE ELMWOOD PARK 412630.4
762574 7/11/08 189 E. MAIN STREET BERGENFIELD 444328.42
762565 7/11/08 398 HAYNES STREET HACKENSACK 331359.97
762572 7/11/08 275 CANTERBURY DRIVE RAMSEY 1176763.82
762573 7/11/08 266 ALPINE CIRCLE RIVER VALE 445567.41
761958 7/11/08 234 SUMMIT AVENUE BOGOTA 309245.53
762567 7/11/08 253 LINCOLN AVENUE RIDGEWOOD 568799.55
762419 7/11/08 364-368 PALISADES AVENUE 3D CLIFFSIDE PARK 7153.2
762570 7/11/08 22 THIRD STREET ELMWOOD PARK 445687.66
761948 7/11/08 423 WOODLAND PLACE LEONIA 472307.59
762575 7/11/08 1203 RIVER ROAD #8H EDGEWATER 536654.61
762569 7/11/08 24 EDGEWOOD ROAD ALLENDALE 550638.12
762568 7/11/08 20 ADDISON AVENUE RUTHERFORD 157083.61
762571 7/11/08 412 OAKDENE AVENUE CLIFFSIDE PARK 511423.2
762368 7/18/08 236 EAST MAIN STREET BERGENFIELD 12435.31
762586 7/18/08 280 PHILLIPS AVENUE SO HACKENSACK 389936.34
761983 7/18/08 291 BOULEVARD GLEN ROCK 435461.01
762588 7/18/08 30 COLUMBIA LANE LODI 410454.49
762346 7/18/08 268 HIGH STREET HACKENSACK 371508.02
762249 7/18/08 1104 RIO VISTA DRIVE MAHWAH 296161.16
762279 7/18/08 142 NEW YORK AVENUE APT. 4 BERGENFIELD 18970.99
762121 7/18/08 39 CHESTNUT STREET LODI 261037.59
762583 7/18/08 119 HUDSON COVE EDGEWATER 1140533.5
762304 7/18/08 23 PALISADE AVENUE WESTWOOD 212820.67
761477 7/18/08 648 OAK STREET MAYWOOD 436351.29
762585 7/18/08 23 LIZETTE STREET GARFIELD 286230.23
762582 7/18/08 683 VANCE AVENUE FRANKLIN LAKES 702026.57
762455 7/18/08 56 CHESTNUT STREET GARFIELD 450098.49
762448 7/18/08 14 COLE STREET ELMWOOD PARK 239559.28
762584 7/18/08 855 VALLEY BROOK AVENUE #2C LYNDHURST 8914.07
762587 7/18/08 351 LIBERTY ROAD ENGLEWOOD 165527.18
762578 7/18/08 1223 SIXTEENTH STREET FORT LEE 557792.23
762579 7/18/08 74 EUCLID AVENUE RIDGEFIELD PARK 388360.02
762580 7/18/08 40 14TH AVENUE ELMWOOD PARK 394535.26
762581 7/18/08 510 OAKLAND AVENUE RIVER VALE 331195.73
762607 7/25/08 1291 SOMERSET ROAD TEANECK 364950.95
762614 7/25/08 241 UNION STREET APT. 404 HACKENSACK 359215.01
762618 7/25/08 415 SEMINO ROAD NORTHVALE 499605.15
762617 7/25/08 55 WAINWRIGHT AVENUE CLOSTER 669132.26
762616 7/25/08 441 PIERMONT ROAD CRESSKILL 621802.36
762615 7/25/08 222 FAIRVIEW AVENUE RUTHERFORD
762611 7/25/08 115 E. QUACKENBUSH AVENUE DUMONT 346834.14
762603 7/25/08 36 YESLER WAY HILLSDALE 321267.05
762612 7/25/08 389 POETS WAY UNIT E3 BLDG 14 MAHWAH 147198.37
762613 7/25/08 17 CLEVELAND STREET ENGLEWOOD 351893.05
762610 7/25/08 850 PALISADE AVENUE TEANECK 631297.65
762608 7/25/08 203 KIPP AVENUE ELMWOOD PARK 313728.75
762606 7/25/08 21 SPENCER PLACE GARFIELD 416461.16
762604 7/25/08 709 BLANCH AVENUE NORWOOD 804679.75
762619 7/25/08 448 TAPPAN ROAD NORTHVALE 333459.08
762590 7/25/08 219 LONGWORTH AVENUE HASBROUCK HGHTS 314970.53
762600 7/25/08 256 LIBERTY ROAD ENGLEWOOD 394393.75
762609 7/25/08 415 MONMOUTH AVENUE NEW MILFORD 405297.72
762139 7/25/08 158 GRAND AVENUE LEONIA 468744.96
762589 7/25/08 6 JEFFERSON PLACE MOONACHIE 587623.53
762591 7/25/08 189 HOWARD STREET WASHINGTON TWP 479157.58
762592 7/25/08 398 LIBERTY ROAD ENGLEWOOD 383799.24
762593 7/25/08 185 QUAKENBUSH AVENUE DUMONT 521327.69
762595 7/25/08 145 HEATHER HILL ROAD CRESSKILL 981039.13
762596 7/25/08 479 LINCOLN AVENUE CLIFFSIDE PARK 443528.45
762602 7/25/08 25 8TH STREET FAIRVIEW 1029107.79
762597 7/25/08 107 HOEFLEYS LANE LEONIA 589386.11
762598 7/25/08 110 S MAHWAH ROAD MAHWAH 348523.7
762594 7/25/08 629 UNDERCLIFF AVENUE UNIT B EDGEWATER 537441.02
762605 7/25/08 15 MAC ARTHUR AVENUE LODI 497408.82
762601 7/25/08 32 WILCOX PLACE FAIR LAWN 410689.42
762627 8/01/08 327 ROFF AVENUE PALISADES PARK 497701.8
762620 8/01/08 7 EDWARD PLACE WOODCLIFF LAKE 842458.58
762632 8/01/08 13 ARTHUR COURT CLOSTER 1040435.46
762622 8/01/08 23 PRESIDENTIAL DRIVE ENGLEWOOD 34494.27
762445 8/01/08 437 MOUNTAIN VIEW ROAD APT. 1 ENGLEWOOD 12409.41
762623 8/01/08 128 OAKLAND STREET ENGLEWOOD 294459.45
762630 8/01/08 21 CHRISTIE STREET DEMAREST 609234.33
762624 8/01/08 538 FRANKLIN TERRACE WYCKOFF 659955.47
762628 8/01/08 343 9TH STREET UNIT A FAIRVIEW 413239.76
762629 8/01/08 79 VAN ARSDALE PLACE TEANECK 349527.97
762625 8/01/08 99 DELL GLEN AVENUE LODI 791399.69
762621 8/01/08 14 ENGLISH AVENUE ELMWOOD PARK 579781.91
762631 8/01/08 306 BELL AVENUE HASBROUCK HGHTS 328936.17
762642 8/08/08 2 VELOCK DRIVE LITTLE FERRY 406327.75
762647 8/08/08 75 CHADWICK ROAD TEANECK 701338.26
762643 8/08/08 88 LINCOLN STREET FAIRVIEW 326254.21
762636 8/08/08 318 SHERWOOD DRIVE PARAMUS 111060.44
762640 8/08/08 130 GLENBROOK PARKWAY # 9A ENGLEWOOD 197645.09
762634 8/08/08 208 PROSPECT STREET ENGLEWOOD 408341
762644 8/08/08 67 WILLARD STREET GARFIELD 334044.99
762637 8/08/08 17 ADELAIDE PLACE EDGEWATER 572406.67
762638 8/08/08 23 HUDSON AVENUE RIDGEFIELD PARK 528516.94
762639 8/08/08 385 ELKWOOD TER., ENGLEWOOD 1035519.2
762626 8/08/08 311 5TH STREET FAIRVIEW 72507.47
762599 8/08/08 20 PROSPECT STREET GARFIELD 367533.39
762635 8/08/08 40 PARK STREET RIDGEFIELD PARK 312023.99
762645 8/08/08 502 CLOSTER DOCK ROAD CLOSTER 658246.2
762641 8/08/08 2206 LINWOOD AVENUE FORT LEE 491177.02
762633 8/08/08 223 VAN SAUN DRIVE RIVER EDGE 457595.67
762646 8/08/08 95 GRAND BOULEVARD EMERSON 398939.42
762658 8/15/08 611 MARIN AVENUE LYNDHURST 203479.5
762652 8/15/08 946 SHEFFIELD ROAD TEANECK 581366.69
762656 8/15/08 349 THE BOULEVARD GLEN ROCK 202615.44
762659 8/15/08 156 PORTER AVENUE BERGENFIELD 328056.2
762650 8/15/08 1002 CUMBERMEADE ROAD FORT LEE 568738.44
762660 8/15/08 135 READE STREET ENGLEWOOD 448999.26
762661 8/15/08 77 MUNN AVENUE TEANECK 161959.72
762648 8/15/08 135B WEST FOREST AVENUE UNIT 2 ENGLEWOOD 337688.72
762651 8/15/08 278 CLEVELAND AVENUE LYNDHURST 352796.62
762654 8/15/08 64 CRESTON AVENUE TENAFLY 663041.12
762655 8/15/08 94 FOREST PLACE ROCHELLE PARK 376954.99
762653 8/15/08 128 MADISON AVENUE ENGLEWOOD 272518.48
762657 8/15/08 942 PALISADE AVENUE TEANECK 338469.56
762649 8/15/08 519 HARRIET PLACE FRANKLIN LAKES 498198.6
762662 8/22/08 270 S LANZA COURT SADDLE BROOK 269420.55
761951 8/22/08 301 COPELAND AVENUE LYNDHURST 521111.43
762673 8/22/08 318 NORTH MIDLAND AVENUE SADDLE BROOK 1172465.29
762670 8/22/08 319 STAG HILL ROAD MAHWAH 7496.01
762669 8/22/08 2 RAMSEY TERRACE FAIR LAWN 7026.82
762668 8/22/08 164 E. 54TH STREET ELMWOOD PARK 556780.85
762667 8/22/08 392 LIBERTY ROAD ENGLEWOOD 489160.44
762663 8/22/08 544 BUCKLEY COURT RIVER VALE 556761.29
762665 8/22/08 48 CHURCH STREET TEANECK 305705.25
762664 8/22/08 337 3RD STREET A, PALISADES PARK 551112.09
762666 8/22/08 482 PALISADE AVENUE BOGOTA 375399.76
762694 8/29/08 900 SOMERSET COURT RAMSEY 10825.93
762681 8/29/08 189 SCHENZ COURT WYCKOFF 492397.68
762691 8/29/08 82 PORTER AVENUE BERGENFIELD 269141.25
762692 8/29/08 99 BILTMORE STREET NORTH ARLINGTON 352620.52
762693 8/29/08 1007 HADDON PLACE TEANECK 173061.32
762695 8/29/08 73 PARK AVENUE MAYWOOD 514929.06
762696 8/29/08 154 FOURTH STREET BERGENFIELD 337570.88
762106 8/29/08 591 SANDRA PLACE TEANECK 393534.02
762672 8/29/08 136 OXFORD AVENUE SADDLE BROOK 12858.86
762674 8/29/08 461 HEATH PLACE 15 HACKENSACK 209389.5
762675 8/29/08 2207 JONES ROAD FORT LEE 904609.93
762183 8/29/08 4 WOODLAND AVENUE LITTLE FERRY 492956.17
762671 8/29/08 40-26 TIERNEY PLACE FAIR LAWN 15013.15
762678 8/29/08 35 GARIBALDI AVENUE LODI 363659.43
762680 8/29/08 308 5TH STREET RIDGEFIELD PARK 390716.12
762690 8/29/08 192 JACKSON AVENUE RUTHERFORD 416475.5
762682 8/29/08 532 UNION STREET CARLSTADT 357670.65
762683 8/29/08 6 MOORE PLACE NORTH ARLINGTON 286262.18
762684 8/29/08 100 OLD PALISADE ROAD UNIT #3815 FORT LEE 387729.97
762685 8/29/08 68 WINANT AVENUE RIDGEFIELD PARK 359237.37
762686 8/29/08 41 MAPLE STREET RIDGEFIELD PARK 343275.15
762687 8/29/08 527 2ND STREET PALISADES PARK 520868.95
762688 8/29/08 1313 15TH STREET UNIT 1313 FORT LEE 441751.22
762689 8/29/08 135 CENTRAL AVENUE BOGOTA 513317.45
762679 8/29/08 316 CAMBRIDGE DRIVE RAMSEY 398869.01
762676 8/29/08 366 STANDISH AVENUE HACKENSACK 409153.29
762553 10/03/08 306 IVY COURT FRANKLIN LAKES 1087743.38
Sloppy reporters, the press release said Lehman would start offering free haircuts, as an employee perk, on Monday.
Report: Lehman to begin job cuts Monday
Investment banking giant Lehman Brothers will begin trimming its workforce by around 5% starting on Monday, cable news network CNBC reported Friday. Lehman had previously announced it would lay off about 1,400 workers as part of a drive by Chief Executive Officer Dick Fuld to cut costs and refocus the bank’s core businesses.
I work on Wall St & I don’t make $550k. Its off of my sweat and tears that the person can make 550k!
The skew in pay on Wall St is ridiculous. Guys making tens of millions riding on analysts making less than 100k. That’s one fat tail I want to ride on!
From CNBC:
Lehman to Cut 5% of Staff, Starting Next Week: Source
Lehman Brothers will begin long-anticipated layoffs early next week, CNBC has learned, on the way to roughly a 5 percent cut to its 28,000-strong workforce.
The layoffs of about 1,400 workers—which come in addition to a previously announced 5 percent cut—are part of an initiative by Lehman
Anyone know what happened to this house?
MLS 2511949
We’re being pre-approved this week(end) and had our eye on it for the last two weeks. It’s not listed anymore.
Lousy mainstream media!
Joey,
UC
Thanks a mill Grim. The wife will be disappointed. Although we haven’t actually had a walk through so we only fell in love with the pictures, such is life..
Curious what the final price agreed on was though. I may ask again after enough time has passed for the final closings to go through (if it does :) and if i remember.
Just for sh!ts & giggles I decided to take a look at Citigroups comp to rev ratio. Wall St is typically 45-55% compensation to revenue.
Where is Citibank?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
“Lehman Brothers will begin long-anticipated layoffs early next week, CNBC has learned, on the way to roughly a 5 percent cut to its 28,000-strong workforce.
The layoffs of about 1,400 workers—which come in addition to a previously announced 5 percent cut”
I’m no mathematician, but I think that adds up to a 10% cut…..
Gawd, but those workers in Manhattan, Kansas must be unhappy.
#299 njpatient: Ah, I think I have told you this before, but it is Manhattan Beach, Ca.
Recovery From Worst Housing Slump Since 1930s Comes With Angel
By Bob Ivry
May 15 (Bloomberg) — The way out of the worst U.S. housing slump since the 1930s goes through Angel Gutierrez.
Gutierrez buys bad mortgages a dozen at a time for a fraction of their face value from lenders overwhelmed by the highest number of defaults in 23 years. When he goes door to door to negotiate lower payments for homeowners or pay them to move so he can sell the house, he’s speeding up the recovery by establishing a price for the homes and flushing out the least reliable borrowers.
Gutierrez and his wife Brenda, based in San Diego, are a two- person shop in an industry that is attracting deep-pocketed investors such as BlackRock Inc., which manages $1.36 trillion in assets. While Gutierrez said he can buy up to $300,000 of bad loans with his own money and has funding sources for about $1 million, New York-based BlackRock plans to raise $2 billion to invest in discount mortgages.
The homeowner was $365,000 under water after buying the house with no money down in June 2005, according to a spreadsheet listing about 30 loans for sale by a national mortgage servicer that Gutierrez referred to in his truck. If Gutierrez bought the note for 20 cents on the dollar, or $73,000, he could probably get the owner to leave by giving her $5,000 for moving expenses, then sell the home for about $150,000, well below even the neighborhood’s declining market value, he said. That would leave him a profit of about $70,000.
`Buy Cheap, Sell Fast’
299 3b
Well, that explains why the layoffs are coming in waves.
#293 grim: Enough with your fluff pieces.
Next thing you know, you will be telling us about your friend at Lehman, like he would know anything just ebcasue he works there.
#302njpatient: There you go!!!
Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy.
Laying of 140 workers in a call center in Manassas, not 1,400 investment bankers in Manhattan.
Maybe they can all go straight to Jamil and Pret’s employers, apparently they are hiring in droves.
305: I’m not sure what is your problem. As I have said several times, I believe NYC loses job (and I really hope it). Still, there are many decent jobs available. Is this so hard to fathom?
From MarketWatch:
Spring a bust for housing market
The hoped-for rebound in home sales failed to blossom this spring with the housing market caught in a downward spiral, as falling prices continue to sap consumer sentiment and keep would-be buyers on the sidelines.
Citibank comp to rev for 3/31/08 Q is 69%.
Probably have to normalize the earnings a bit considering the huge writedowns they took for mortgage exposures. However it looks like they still have a huge amount of CDO’s and ABCP on their books. Their trading revenues were decimated and their banking fees and commissions dropped like a rock. What kept Citibank going?
.
.
.
The FED. Net interest margins were up and they made money the old fashioned way. Borrow cheap and lend dear. Net interest revenues up 27% from same period last year.
Nobody is hoping for job losses.
I can’t imagine what kind of position or standing a person would need to be in to hope for something like that.
Just because we discuss it, and even joke about it (in bad taste), doesn’t mean we wish it on anybody, lest we find ourselves in that position.
“The skew in pay on Wall St is ridiculous. Guys making tens of millions riding on analysts making less than 100k.”
Less than 100K? We’re interviewing several 2006 and 2007 grads right now and gonna pay them around $100k and maybe slightly more. $60-70k base + $30-40k bonus.
A lot of the kids we’ve interviewed work in securitization at Bear. A lot of them will get fired, but they’ll land on their feet. I work at a small shop and we’ll probably hire 2 or 3 of them.
Grim,
Sorry to bash the links you posted this morning. I was frustrated that the NYC job number wasn’t getting any attention.
What about the other 9998?
Let’s combine sinking equity, rising defaults, increasing lis pendens, tighter lending, risk-averse investors, a shrinking pool of qualified/willing buyers and incapacitated lenders. Sounds like a good old fashioned bust.
Mitchell [266]
My company if quite flexible and allows people to work from home. Af first many didn’t take the option, but gas prices have pushed people to consider it. I’ve also noticed a generation gap with the idea of telecommuting. The older HR people tried to ban it, since they think everyone should sit in a cubicle for 8 hours a day whether they need to or not, and some older employees see working from hom or where ever as slacking. The HR rubes also like think they are powerful and controlling, so they want to limit flexibilty whenever they can. These people aren’t internet savvy enough to relaize that you can do about 99% of your job from anywhere, and employee productivity can improve dramatically when you dont spend four hours a day on the GSP. The younger crowd seems to really embrace it, as well as people with young families. I think its the wave of the future, especially in face of high gas prices and congestion in the NE.
BC Bob – Great Summary
Hey 100K right out of school is nothing to whine about. A civil servant works 30 years sometimes to reach that salary. At my company or any company on wall street back out the top ten employees and it falls like a brick. But the bottom line is take a look at 2Q financials on Wall Street and you will notice hardly any FICIA taxes. The vast majority of the company made over 100K by March 31st so no more SS taxes. Yea that includes cash bonuses in Jan/Feb. But how many business can say even with bonus nearly all their employees crossed the six figure mark by April 1st?
Bob Doll, vice chairman and global chief investment officer for BlackRock Inc., said “when everyone else throws in the towel, no one else is left to throw in the towel, and that is where you make a bottom.”
I guess we’re back to 2004 prices
Glen Rock
SLD 37 BEVERLY RD $745,000 7/15/2004
ACT 37 BEVERLY RD $849,798 10/24/2007
PCH 37 BEVERLY RD $824,423 11/24/2007
PCH 37 BEVERLY RD $799,999 1/3/2008
PCH 37 BEVERLY RD $775,000 1/27/2008
EXP 37 BEVERLY RD $775,000 2/25/2008
New broker/agent
ACT 37 BEVERLY RD $759,000 2/25/2008
ACT* 37 BEVERLY RD $759,000 2/27/2008
U/C 37 BEVERLY RD $759,000 2/29/2008
SLD 37 BEVERLY RD $745,000 5/16/2008
Pret,
Look at the greater picture. You’re only looking on the front office side. For all those guys there is an entire back office staff supporting them (legal, compliance, operations, accounting, HR, etc…)
I was frustrated that the NYC job number wasn’t getting any attention.
Thanks for the links, I don’t usually post the NYC labor info.
Don’t think that I put much thought into the stories that get posted every day. I’ve been accused of selectively posting stories. In reality, I do this at 5:30 in the morning, half asleep, with a dog tugging at my pant-leg wanting to go out.
I post it, good or bad, the group dissects it. Nobody comes here for my opinion, I’m just providing a forum for the discussion.
I think telecommuting is great! The best part is when lay-offs come no ugly scenes I just e-mail the PJ wearing telecommutes and tell them to log off for good.
Not to mention the fact that I’ve been doing this every morning for somewhere around 1,050 days straight.
#309 “Nobody is hoping for job losses”
With W gone, I do hope for more republicans in congress losing their jobs in the upcoming elections
HC
John Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
I think telecommuting is great! The best part is when lay-offs come no ugly scenes I just e-mail the PJ wearing telecommutes and tell them to log off for good.
LOL, now that was good…
grim Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 9:20 am
“He also said there was another offer, but I’m sure there’s always another offer when you go to put one in.
Always.
I advise my buyers to play the same game.
They always have another offer on the table.”
Grim – I couldn’t agree with this more. Just as there were bidding wars generated between desparate buyers at the peak, no reason buyers shouldn’t play desparate sellers off of each other.
JBJB – telecommuting
That’ll make for a lot more empty office space in NYC. I remember one woman at my last company worked from home too. She lived in Virginia. She came into the office like two days a month and would stay in a hotel.
When Paulson says “strong dollar” he is really talking about a weak dollar, so when he says “second half rebound”, is he really talking about recession?
Treasury secretary says markets are calmer now
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday that financial markets are “considerably calmer” now than they were two months ago. He predicted the economy will be rebounding by the second half of this year.
Hard Place [318],
Stop, you’re talking too much sense. Any dolt that has an ounce of affiliation with the street understands what is evolving. Remember, this is the same half-wit that was trying to convince me that Bear was/would be increasing its hiring in 2008.
Pret,
Any time, come to Wall and William. I’ll show you resumes stacked from the floor to the ceiling. By the way, bankers moving from NY to Mumbai, Shanghai, Dubai, etc.., are not counted as a job loss. It takes an inordinate amount to time for those that have recently lost jobs to be officially counted. They may have severance packages that will carry them for awhile. They are not officially unemployed until they file for unemploy benefits.
Not to mention the fact that I’ve been doing this every morning for somewhere around 1,050 days straight.
That’s right, 3 year anniversary is coming up soon!
girm (309): “Nobody is hoping for job losses.”
Maybe hope is the wrong word, but at least I can’t afford to buy a house (without overextending myself or committing a fraud) until the bubble has burst. Unfortunately, I don’t think prices come down unless there are job losses in NYC. I expect this to happen, and I’m not sorry about it, if it means I can afford to buy a house (ie using the traditional formulas, like 3 x income etc).
In John’s day, there was no internet, and people wore powdered wigs to work and commuted via stagecoach. AND THEY LIKED IT.
Telecommuting? Crazy kids with your “technology.”
BC Bob,
Pret really said that Bear would be increasing their hiring?
HEY PRET, WHOSE HIRING NEXT? I want to make sure I buy some puts on that company.
312 pret
“gonna pay them around $100k and maybe slightly more. $60-70k base + $30-40k bonus.”
wuch! Is that a guaranteed bonus? Cause otherwise, you’re paying them 60-70K, and that’s for someone coming over from Bear?
That’s not exactly landing on your feet in my book.
#311 pret: a lot of them will get fired, but they’ll land on their feet.
And many mroe will not.
It is something you see when you have been around for quite awhile.
When I departed Goldman in 1999, many others did too, and it took quite some time for many to land on their feet, and some never did. They left the business entirely.
#309 grim; More fluff???
Hard Place,
I never said that, although I admit I was wrong about Bear’s collapse. But overall I’ve been right New York jobs so far, and the data backs me up. Most of the gloomy predictions we read here concerning 4q07 layoffs haven’t played out.
Remember, BC Bob has a track record of making accusations that he can’t defend. For instance, he accused me of plagiarizing a book he owned. When I challenged him, he said he couldn’t recall the name of the book, adding that it he couldn’t find it because it was in storage.
By the way, plenty of people are hiring.
NJ patient,
Bonus isn’t guaranteed, but the people we’re hiring are 22 or 23 years old. $100k is landing on your feet for these kids, especially if they time things right and collect some severance $$$.
“Unfortunately, I don’t think prices come down unless there are job losses in NYC.”
Jamil [329]
The following did not wait for the jobs whistle to blow;
-Tulip Bulbs
-South Sea Bubble
-Florida,1925
-Stock Market Crash, 1929
-Stock Market Crash, 1987
-Japan, 1990
-Dot com
That said, the jobs picture was not pretty after these events.
Even Bob Toll stated that he has never witnessed a RE market turn on a dime, in an environment of a healthy economy. Yes, we are in unchartered waters. Since the fed is now steering the ship, we better pray that they soon abandon that ship. A submarine would be more appropriate.
Harp Place [333],
Yes, you have to go back, archives.
“I never said that, although I admit I was wrong about Bear’s collapse”
Pret,
You are a bag full of s*it. You argued that Bear was increasing its hiring.
JB,
Is there an easy way to search for this?
Most of the gloomy predictions we read here concerning 4q07 layoffs haven’t played out.
pret,
4q,07? The damn credit crisis didn’t hit until the summer of 2007.
pret,
If you want to dig up what I said, go find my Sept post regarding Bear.
BC Bob, I know what you said. You were right about Bear.
Pretard,
Would you give it up already BC Bob and anybody with half a brain can see you are wrong.
I’d have to agree w/ Bob. Most of those recent layoffs won’t hit the employment stats until after they stop collecting severance. For some of the older workers, that may be as much as one year after the layoff. Unemployment/employment statistics has always been known to be a lagging indicator.
Grim 321#-
I will attest to Grim’s being up that early and on his computer. I’ve seen him on many occasions logged into gmail around the time up and working on something.
And with that, we should all give Grim a huge thank you for the incredible amount of work he’s put into this site.
Thanks again Grim,
JM
Although it says you can vote once a day, it does not work for me and several other’s here have stated the same. Can you only vote for one (1)? Can we now vote for http://www.branchblog.com/
Clot,
Can you register it, so we can vote for it?
KL
OT:
Is the weather that bad in the NYC area?
Why do I always seem to have flight delays on my return trips home?
Pret,
…we’ll probably hire 2 or 3 of them.
That should make a dent.
(I keed, I keed!)
#337 pret:So you were wrong, but overall you were right? Well Bear collapsed in the first quarter of 08, not too far off from the last quarter of 07.
And I myself predicted ther would be layoffs 4th quarter 07, and I though they would be larger in number then they were, but they are happening in 2008, and will continue to happen throughout the year and into 09.
So to make the cavalier comment well with the excpetion of the Bear collapse I was right, is just that,cavalier.
You have no real undestanding what the imapct of losing the 5 largest IB really means.
The collapse of Bear will cotninue to have revererations on Wall st and the NYC local economy through out the rest of the year and beyond.
Since you worship at the altar of data, all I can say is that at some point these layoffs will show up in your data.
The only problem will be then is that you will have to reconfigure your data, to make it conform to your pre-conceived notions. You will keep moving the goal posts.
You blindly dismiss every news piece that comes out on Wall St layoffs as fluff,and sloppy journalism. If the piece said Wall st was hiirng, would you accuse it of being fluff? No, you would point to it as proof that all is well, in this “sea of wealth” that we live in as you say.
It is only fluff it does not conform to your myopic view of things.And I find that ironic as you accuse many here of that same ailment.
You come across as some kind of expert on all of this, with lets look at the data.
Well the data for so much that has transpired over the last year few years, means absolutley nothing, as it was wrong.
Finally your arrogance shows as well.You would do yourself a big favor if you at least acknowledged that myself and BC Bob as well as some others might have a better understanding of how the street thinks and operates especially since even though we could be wrong this time, we at least have past history to point to.
Your claim to street fame, is that you had a tough time getting a job on the street when the dot com bubble busted.
Survive a Wall St layoff or 2 or 3, then come back to talk to me.
When I worked at EF Hutton right out of school we had 300 People on my floor and we had one Xerox machine, two IBM typewriters, two bunkoramas, two DEX machines and rotary phones. But hey we had an Ash Try on everyones desk on a floor where the windows did not open. When someone had a baby and brought in cigars and we were all smoking you almost wished you were locked in the coupon clipping area to get away from the smoke. I loved it when DTC code 70 gave you only a line or two to say what the cash mark to mark was for. DK UR DK 009046020 RD4-21 SD4-28
You guys with your fancy pants computers hae it easy.
movinB Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
In John’s day, there was no internet, and people wore powdered wigs to work and commuted via stagecoach. AND THEY LIKED IT.
Telecommuting? Crazy kids with your “technology.”
kl (347)-
Thanks for the plug! I’ll take a look and do what needs to be done to register.
Funny…I can’t imagine my sad little blog actually cracking the winner list. Unless lots of people out there like reading comment after comment from Realtors and trolls, all calling me an a**hole.
#350 John
I love your stories. Did people also wear fedoras and drink scotch? We may have it easy now, but a scotch would make work even easier.
“calling me an a**hole”
clot,
You mean a golden a**hole?
tried smoking what was supposed to be a good cigar the other night and 15 minutes later felt like I was going to vomit. I honestly do not understand the appeal
Yeah, an AUY-mined, GLD-coated a-hole.
BTW, http://www.branchblog.com is now registered at FHA’s Best of the Blogs contest. Vote away.
Just make sure you vote for Grim first.
skep (354)-
Sure it was a cigar? :0
If so, what brand?
Clot-
I tried to leave a comment on your blog, but got no confirmation. When i tried again, it complained about duplicate comments.
#352 movinB:No but we did have both male and female strippers on the trading floor, erotic birthday cakes, and shaving cream in the phones.
Pret,
Here you go, now dispute this. OOOPPS, I was wromg, I did not include the fed as a possible buyer of Bear.
BC Bob Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 1:23 pm
“But judging by their actions Wall Street firms are optimistic about the outlook for their businesses and comfortable with current staff levels.”
[29],
Oh really? If current conditions linger, I’m hearing 10-20% layoffs. Bear, as we know it, will not be the same. It’s either massive restructuring, 30-50% layoffs, or it will be bought by someone like Merrill or JP.
#358 3b-
Shaving cream in the… ? I won’t ask.
Asset Prices Matter, On the Way Up and Down
Now the Fed is mulling whether to take asset prices into consideration in its conduct of monetary policy. This is apostasy to followers of the Greenspan Doctrine that asset bubbles cannot be detected when they are inflating but must be countered after they burst.
But, in the wake of the housing bubble and collapse, Fed policymakers are reconsidering the notion that inflation applies only to consumer goods and not to asset prices.
In a speech Thursday night, Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin considered this key question. Monetary should pay attention to asset bubbles because of their potential to destabilize the economy.
The popular perception is that Bernanke has opened the floodgates. “The Fed is providing an extraordinary amount of liquidity,” according to the head economist of a major bank. The data, however, do not bear this out. The Fed itself actually has turned tight and growth in the money supply slowed from its breakneck pace in the past month. And, coincidentally, the dollar has pulled out of its nosedive and gold has pulled out of its ascent.
But a fixation on conventional measures, such as the consumer price index or the personal consumption deflator, ignored the inflation in the price of the most important asset for Americans — their homes — on the way up and allowed policy to remain too loose, too long. Ignoring the collapse in this asset’s price while focusing on the CPI (or crude oil) risks the opposite now.
Still, an explicit recognition of asset prices in the inflation is belated but would be welcome.
#316 I get more done working out of the home than in the office. Less distractions. So I am looking forward to it. Not to mention the free internet upgrade because I need business class service to the home.
Vic (357)-
For some reason, one or two people have this happen. Virtually everybody else gets through. My webmaster is working on it. Sorry.
Unlike Grim, I have no technical or computer skills.
3b (358)-
If you shaving cream today’s high-voltage phones, you can either ruin the phone and/or electrocute the user.
Where have all the good times gone?
#362 Mitchell –
I get more done when telecommuting, too. I get an extra hour or two of sleep those nights, which contributes to alertness and morale.
Plus, I’m a happier employee in general, and I save my company money. Matter of fact, we recently lost a few good workers to companies that allow more telecommuting time than my company does.
As I’ve said before, I think this will eventually have an effect on leveling the playing field in housing and removing the premium people will pay for a short commute in a train town.
It’s a lot easier to suck it up on a long, expensive commute for 3 or 4 days a week than 5.
SG (361)-
“The Fed itself actually has turned tight and growth in the money supply slowed from its breakneck pace in the past month.”
That would be nice…could we be assured that it is true. However, the truth may be that the Fed is whirring the presses 24/7 and secretly continuing to ship the contents of Fort Knox to China.
It has become patently obvious that lies have become another tool the Fed/Treasury uses in interfacing with economic mechanics and its communication with the public.
#364 clot: Long gone I am afraid my friend. whil not always appropriate, it was fun.
Also used to remove the speaker pieces from the phones, cut each others ties, order 30 pizzas for people at another firm, then they had to pay for it.
Then a few weeks later they would return the favor.
Out of control Christmas parties, where everything and anything really did go on.
And the women on the trading floor could go to to with any man when it came to matters of an explicit nature.
Troubled by bubbles: Central bankers re-examine the hands-off approach
By Krishna Guha , Financial Times, 15 May 2008
In the aftermath of the dotcom crash in 2002, Alan Greenspan famously argued that central banks had little power to stop bubbles inflating and then bursting. All policymakers could do, said the then Federal Reserve chairman, was to “focus on policies to mitigate the fallout when it occurs”.
Six years and another bubble – this time in housing – later, Mr Bernanke is Fed chairman and the US central bank is taking another look at its hands-off approach to asset prices. Mr Bernanke is open to the possibility that it may have to make fundamental changes to its strategy.
“Given the events of the last eight months it would be foolish not to reconsider the Greenspan doctrine,” says Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. “Maybe after careful consideration you might conclude that it is not possible to do anything better. But everybody is thinking about it.”
Some experts saw bubbles in technology as early as 1996 and in housing as early as 2003 – even though most analysts now believe that prices were not then unrealistic. Efforts to suppress bubbles that do not really exist could do enormous damage.
366 Clot: That may be just a bucket in forest fire. I don’t think they can afford to do anything in large scale till elections are over with.
She says the housing bust is a slam dunk;
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/photos/nba-dancers/550522/
Not sure if it’s appropriate, but here’s the link to vote for Clot’s blog:
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=88
From above link
However, Fed officials say it is the asset prices that behave asymmetrically, not monetary policy. The prices of all assets – whether technology stocks in the 1990s or house prices in the 2000s – tend to rise gradually for a long period and then fall sharply.
The Fed, he says, took interest rates too low for too long following the Russian crisis in 1998, allowing the dotcom bubble to build, then repeated the mistake following the dotcom bust in 2000, which led to overheating in the housing market. “Rather than bursting bubbles they should make sure that monetary policy does not cause the bubble in the first place,” he says.
To be fair, link to Grim’s blog is:
http://www.fhamortgagecenter.com/contest/view.php?id=73
Financial crisis ‘closer to the end’: Paulson
“In my judgment we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning,” Paulson said in a speech in Washington to business leaders.
“The correction has further to go, and so we should not be surprised at headlines that note rising foreclosures and falling home prices.”
Underscoring that “housing is the biggest risk to our economy,” Paulson noted the “critical” role of the government-chartered mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which provide funds for some 80 percent of all home loans.
“It’s never been more critical that markets have confidence in how these companies are overseen and regulated,” he said, calling on Congress to complete a “meaningful” reform legislation to improve their regulation
All the contest attention to my blog will probably only intensify the daily spam attack…
#368 I think it simply boils down to too many people thinking they can get rich quick and flood a paticular area.
Virtual Wealth.
Dot Com
Online trading was the anyone can be an investor and the Dot Com happened.
Housing
Banking/lenders gave them the tools for the housing bubble to happen.
After all whats the risk? Chap 11/13 rinse and repeat.
Judging from the number of people who actually joined Amway you can tell America is the get rich quick country that is a sucker for anything that promises overnight wealth.
While I envy their enthusiasm a lot of people lack the ability to see through a sales pitch.
Never underestimate stupid people in numbers.
3b Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
“#364 clot: Long gone I am afraid my friend. whil not always appropriate, it was fun.
Also used to remove the speaker pieces from the phones, cut each others ties, order 30 pizzas for people at another firm, then they had to pay for it.
Then a few weeks later they would return the favor.”
Nice to see the maturity of the financial engine of the nation. No wonder we lurch from bubble to bubble.
Question for the assembly….
Did we ever figure out why the NAR stats released this week were seemingly out of step with Case-Shiller & OFHEO??
I’ve been busy and hadn’t checked the threads…..I was wondering why Monmouth/Ocean counties got special mention.
Clot – You don’t leave the nasty and trolling comments on? Those are usually the most entertaining.
Mortgage Woes, British Edition
Policy makers in the United Kingdom have gotten in the habit of blaming U.S. mortgage lenders for the global financial crisis that is now buffeting their economy. But as the U.K. housing market hits the rocks, they have been uncovering some problems at home.
On Thursday, Britain’s markets regulator, the Financial Services Authority, said it has fined financial-advisory firm Thinc Group Ltd. £900,000, or almost $1.8 million, for lax standards in its subprime business. The FSA has now fined three companies and banned two because of their subprime business.
Clot #356
Romeo y Julieta Reserva Real
like I said, I don’t get it
Did we ever figure out why the NAR stats released this week were seemingly out of step with Case-Shiller & OFHEO??
NAR Median Pricing
New York-Wayne-White Plains MSA
2006 – 539,400 (peak)
2008.q1 – $491,900 (current)
Down 8.8%
S&P Case Shiller HPI
New York Metro Commutable Area
June 2006 – 215.83 (peak)
Feb 2008 – 198.46 (current)
Down 8.05%
Comparison here isn’t apples to apples, the S&P Case Shiller doesn’t represent an MSA.. From the methodology:
Note: the S&P/CS® New York City Home Price Index is not an MSA. It represents a
customized metro area that measures single-family home values in select New York,
New Jersey and Connecticut counties with significant populations that commonly
commute to New York City for employment purposes.
We could also look at the larger MSAD, which would encompass most of the S&P Case Shiller defined territory:
NAR Median Pricing
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
2006 – 469,300
2007 – 469,700
2008.q1 – $445,400 (current)
Down 5.1% from 2006 and down 5.2% from 2007.
S&P Case Shiller and the NAR numbers are tracking together pretty well.
Real Estate Flipper
What I was referring to was the May 14 Press Release…
“Home prices in the area that includes Monmouth and Ocean counties were essentially flat in the first quarter of 2008, declining by 0.6 percent from the same period the year before, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
The median sale price for an existing single-family home in Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Somerset counties was $361,200, down $2,300, from $363,500 in the same quarter in 2007, the association said. The median means that half the homes in the area sold for more and half sold for less.”
I thought this caused a flurry of activity on the board earlier this week.
The “area that includes Monmouth and Ocean” is the Edison-New Brunswick, NJ Metropolitan Division which includes the following counties:
Middlesex County
Monmouth County
Ocean County
Somerset County
NAR Median Pricing
Edison-New Brunswick, NJ Metropolitan Division
2005 – $375,500
2006 – $387,700 (peak)
2007.q1 – $363,500
2008.q1 – $361,200 (current)
Down 0.6% from the same quarter last year, and down 6.8% from peak prices set in 2006. Even more interesting is that current prices are *below* 2005 prices.
You can’t compare this with the S&P Case Shiller, while the S&P Case Shiller NY Metro index includes an area much wider than just these counties.
Real Estate Bubbles and California’s Economic Growth, Part 1
RE lessons in classrooms.
Even worse when you adjust for inflation.
Edison-New Brunswick, NJ Metropolitan Division – Inflation Adjusted Median Prices
2006 – ~$413,000 (peak)
2008.q1 – $361,200 (current)
Talking about a real loss of over 12% since peak.
Two years back, we talked about the two ways out of a housing bubble. Either home prices fall, or inflation erodes home prices.
In this case, we’re seeing both happen.
saw this and thought of the economy:
http://www.aperfectworld.org/1c.html
pretorius Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
NJ patient, Bonus isn’t guaranteed, but the people we’re hiring are 22 or 23 years old. $100k is landing on your feet for these kids, especially if they time things right and collect some severance $$$.
pret: use your f—— CFA! Anecdotal evidence? Think about it. In these conditions, the people that are in the best position are the people in charge and the go-fers. The easiest people to get re-employed are the ones with 1-2 years experience that can be worked like dogs and be paid $100K. The people that are screwed are the ones that are neither fish nor fowl. Not in charge, but too senior to be a grunt.
It just so happens that such people tend to have annoying features in their lives like marriages, mortgages and kids…but we digress….
These guys make Meow Mix, so somehow it felt related to the blog…..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=alqjynRWsRhQ&refer=us
Where are you Grim in this video?
I love Paulson, housing busts usually play out over 5-10 years, but of course this one will only last a year, year and a half max. Does he have any sort of conscience or is he just pure evil?
A&E – FLIP MY FORECLOSURE SCAM PART 1
393
Well I won’t be wasting my Saturdays watching that crap anymore.
This is really sad news,
‘Five million’ homeless in quake
re: (393) SG unfortunately he is not the only scammer flipper on TV.
I read recently that viewing is up on these Reality flipper TV shows.
Here is the article in Forbes.
QUOTE //Prime-time viewership for HGTV increased from 970,000 in the first quarter of 2006 to 1,059,000 in the first quarter of 2007, according to Nielsen statistics. That figure jumped to 1,102,000 during the first quarter of 2008, though it is likely the 100-day writers’ strike, during which many viewers abandoned affected channels with scripted shows in favor of cable networks touting new content, contributed to this year’s inflated ratings. For TLC, whose property shows include Flip That House, Property Ladder and Trading Spaces, prime-time viewership climbed from 791,000 in 2006 to 897,000 in 2007 and peaked at 941,000 in the first quarter of this year.//
http://www.forbes.com/business/2008/05/14/real-estate-television-biz-media-cx_ha_0514hometv.html
Grim 396 is in moderation.
soosh (379)-
I leave all the comments up…that are posted by actual humans.
My problem is, I get 50-60 posts a day generated by spambots. They are all ads for online casinos, pills, etc.
skep (381)-
If it was a Cuban Romeo, I’ll just leave it that you don’t like cigars. Those things are darn good.
If, however, it was a Dominican Romeo? Those things don’t deserve to be called cigars. They aren’t very good.
I bet a nice Ashton or Fuente would fill the bill for you.
HE (392)-
“Does he have any sort of conscience or is he just pure evil?”
Since he came from the netherworld of Goldman, my vote goes to pure evil.
we used to screw the mouthpiece off the phone on three day summer weekends on Friday evening and jam it full of maynoise. Building killed AC 4th of July weekend and then when the bozo strolled though door we ring his phone as he was coming in and he
Clot – ‘Irreverent local realty blog. Hosted by Realtor broker/owner who is not guzzling the Kool-Aid.’ In a matter of hours, you are in with 14 votes. Nice.
#377 lisoosh: It was over 20 years ago. Now that stuff is long over, and yet we now seem to lurch from one financial bubble/mess to another.
The fun has been taken out of it, and yet the stupidity and recklessness has never been worse.
Perhaps we need the fun back.
#401 john: Turn the lights off in the bathroom.
Hoboken foreclosures on the rise. Could it be Stockton on the Hudson?
http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?zipcode=07030&zipOnly=true
Inventory in NJ up by 1% this week to a record of 101K.
Clot -Thanks for the info on loss aversion being tied to R/E training. I’d never thought about it. Maybe when you have had a fair number of crappy things happen to you, you get jaded and expect loss. Many out there haven’t gone through too much turmoil in their lives and the fear of loss is overwhelming. Once you have experienced some loss and lived another day, you are not quite as “averse.”
Looking at it that way, the gov. could be cheating multitudes of people out of one of life’s most important lessons..HOW TO DEAL WITH LOSS!
It’s all Republican’s fault.
“Angry they may be, but the people behind AngryRenter.com are certainly not renters. Though it purports to be a spontaneous uprising, AngryRenter.com is actually a product of an inside-the-Beltway conservative advocacy organization led by Dick Armey, the former House majority leader, and publishing magnate Steve Forbes, a fellow Republican. It’s a fake grass-roots effort — what politicos call an AstroTurf campaign — that provides a window into the sleight-of-hand ways of Washington.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121090164137297527.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone
“Frank Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
It’s all Republican’s fault.”
it always is.
re: (408) Frank
Ever hear of the saying “stealing thunder”.
Perhaps we need the fun back.
…or just find folks mature enough to handle lots of other people’s money without turning the place into a giant fraternity party.
Ridgewood
SLD 222 GATEWAY RD $640,000 7/19/2005
SLD 222 GATEWAY RD $590,000 5/15/2008
“FABULOUS, NEW (2006) GOURMET KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTERS AND STAINLESS APPLIANCES”
Ridgewood
SLD 207 PROSPECT ST $1,250,000 12/22/2003
SLD 207 PROSPECT ST $1,300,000 5/15/2008
Excluding inflation, commission, etc.
Less than .8% increase per year
Can someone tell me if MLS#2514339 is under contract?
I was outbid on it two weeks ago. Just wondering why it’s still in the MLS.
Thanks.
With all the carnage what’s the best way to get a list of Bank held properties?
CIndy (407)-
Nothing is more demeaning to a human being than taking away his right to fail.
Can anyone provide me with experienced real estate agent/broker in Middlesex & Monmouth area who deals in Short-Sale and foreclosures.
My motivation to buy right now is to find a deal on both house price and mortgage rates.
Thanks in advance
NPG